Shocking crime figures
Given the recent media uproar over stabbings in the capital, it will be interesting to see how many newspapers choose to run some new knife crime and murder statistics just published by the Metropolitan Police in London (pdf link).
The figures compare what happened between July 2007 and June 2008 with a year earlier. In the most recent 12 months, there were 9,997 reports of knife crime in the capital. A year before, it was 11,642 - a FALL of 14%.
Gun crime has fallen by a similar amount (14%) and youth violence is also down by 7.7%.
These are big falls and, to my mind, make very encouraging reading.
Some will dismiss them as nonsense, preferring to judge the state of violent crime in London on the basis of what they read in the paper or hear in the local pub.
But there is one statistic that we can all accept the police are not in a position to massage - the murder rate.
In the year to July 2007, there were 175 murders in the capital. The subsequent 12 months saw 154 - 21 FEWER. One murder would still be too many but the figures make a mockery of the claims that life is becoming cheaper in London.
Monthly data published on the Metropolitan Police website shows that in June last year there were 26 murders in London. This June, it was 14. London, don't forget, is deemed the hottest of hot-spots when it comes to murderous youths with blades.
When the national crime figures show that people's experience of wounding (not what the police record but what 50,000 people said in face-to-face interviews with a polling company) is DOWN a significant 19% year on year, it is really time to stop this myth that we are in the midst of a knife epidemic.
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Maybe, maybe not - you seem to have taken the figures at face value, very trusting of you bearing in mind how previous figures have been fiddled.
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The majority of the media seems more interested in what they can persuade people is happening, and not what is actually happening. After all, fictional crime waves give you much more leeway to make interesting headlines and crusades
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Mark, I think I love you.
Especially during the summer, I switch my brain off from the news and weather reports and manage to notice that the sun is shining, the countryside is still there and is still green, and that people smile back if you smile at them.
It's such a shame when folk damn the "state of this country" when really their personal experiences are probably quite good if they actually took a step back to notice.
As an aside: I keep forgetting to lock my car. The only time anything ever got stolen from a car of mine, it /was/ locked but they forced the lock with a screwdriver anyway to make off with a straw hat and some dodgy CD-compilations I'd made. I see this as a bit of an analogy for life: In the main, there isn't all that much crime given the population, and you're pretty safe - BUT should someone be out to get you in whatever way, there's not really much you could do to stop it, so just carry on regardless...
Hurrah for sinking crime-rates!
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The statistics supply compelling evidence that the general public is taking effective action by avoiding criminals - for example by abandoning town centres and public transport at night.
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Knife crime and fear sell newspapers.
Statistics don't.
END OF STORY
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I will view these figures with a guarded optimism. The fact is that bad news, such as crime, knife or otherwise is far easier to sensationalise for a tabloid headline than good.
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I would be very surprised if the newspapers give this news much of a mention. Remember they mostly have an agenda to get their Tory mates back in power so spreading good news doesn't suit their needs at the moment. As knife crime has been such a high profile news item recently maybe Mark, you can get this story as lead item on tonights BBC News.
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Editors traditionally take the view that good news doesn't sell in this country because a) it's boring and b) we are a nation of cynical whingers who must have our prejudices confirmed.
But does bad news sell any better? Newspaper sales are in long term decline and news/current affairs programmes struggle for audience share.
Is this because the news agenda is so unremittingly depressing?
I'm not suggesting that headlines such as "No stabbings yesterday shock" are necessarily going to sell more newspapers, but surely it's time for a bit more balance in the coverage.
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Hardly surprising, have a look at Alisa Miller's talk on the media (ref: www.ted.com). Media should have ramifications for callously distorting our perception of the truth.
It is extra-ordinarily ignorant to use or misuse statistics/image without examining the affect on the British public, it is also ignorant to affect the British public without examining the truth...i think it is safe to say that sadly a large proportion of our media are simply not up to scratch.
Why don't we try to have more balance, stories of achievement, hope, happiness and value. There is too much made of valueless and unsustainable practice and not enough done to explain how such practices can be avoided, solved or their consequences resolved.
If you wonder at yourselves for 'opting out' or developing a casual manner to truly horrific happenings, perhaps it is time to stop, think and examine why? Rather than pondering numbers, think about formative events, the picture and the reality.
Finally who benefits from the preoccupation with this seemingly inactionable sea of despair? Get out and do something meaningful and valuable for you, your family, your community, your country, your world, your plane of existence...then perhaps we would no longer have so many dying/ mutilated/ disenfranchised/ disillusioned and media that are part of the solution rather than the problem.
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I would like to see violent crime statistics differentiating between violent crime by strangers and violent crimes committed by family members or acquaintances.
It seems logical to me that if you associate with people that have violent tempers and a tendency to lose control (through excess drink, drugs or any other reason), you are more likely to become a victim of violence.
If, on the other hand, you try to avoid regular association with people like that, your chances of being a crime victim are lower.
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And 2007 marked the previous low point of violent crime, did it?
Thanks to jailing a record number of violent goons, we've managed to regress to the mean.
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Well done, Mark, this needed saying - but who is going to take notice? Will I see it high on the agenda on BBC News tonight? I bet even the broadsheets give it little attention.
As a former journalist who used to pride himself on the accuracy of his stories I am increasingly dismayed and disgusted by current standards of journalism - and not just in the tabloids either. Even the Guardian seems to prefer sensationalism to facts most of the time, the shining exception being its Bad Science column on Saturdays. And yes, I know old farts like me are always banging on about how much better things were in their day, but Teddyboys and Mods and Rockers were sensationalised just as much as hoodies and illegal immigrants are today. The difference is that most editors had some sense of social responsibility and weren't competing with 24 hour rolling news.
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#12 - ancienthack
The trouble is that all the time there is a market for garbage, someone will supply it. As with government, in a democracy we tend to get the press we deserve.
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Anyone who thinks that people are deserting city centres and public transport at night obviously hasn't been out at night. I've never seen so many people around as I do now, and that's with nearly 30 years experience.
People believe what they want to believe and English people, for some reason that eludes me, want to believe the worst. They will continue to do so and I will continue to live me life regardless of their doom-mongering.
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There's almost a consensus of opinion here that recognises the media-driven fear and negativity which I think is having a terrible effect on our collective mental state. What concerns me most about this is the long term consequences for our children and young people, who are growing up in a toxic atmosphere of pessimism and hopelessness.
I work in a university where there is absolutely no student political activity and I wonder where the next generation of politicians are going to come from.
But why become a constantly mocked and derided politician when you can become a completely irresponsible journalist who is accountable to no-one?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Other than the murder rate, I'm as equally disinclined to believe the genuineness of these figures as I am the newspapers.
The newspapers are interested in selling themselves, and are increasingly desperate to do so, and have found fear of crime to be an excellent way of getting peoples attention.
The Police and Government are interested in being seen as doing a good job, and have found statistical juggling to be an excellent way of doing so.
If you want meaningful figures I strongly suggest canvassing hospitals - I have already mentioned in a previous blog comment that studies have shown large discrepancies between police figures and hospital figures.
And the decrying of cherry picking stories and sensationalism is a surprise from the BBC who, on occasion, indulges in both.
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#17 - Frank-Castle
"The Police and Government are interested in being seen as doing a good job, and have found statistical juggling to be an excellent way of doing so."
I think it is important to note that these figures have nothing to do with detection, prosecution and conviction rates. They say nothing about the performance of the police or the efficacy of crime prevention measures. They are simply a bald statement of fact. Fewer murders and fewer knife crimes is good news but to try and spin them into something they are not is a mistake.
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If you beleive other government figures accidents are down at speed camera sites.
That is why they are covering up the fact that a motocyclist was killed last week at a camera site because he braked and the numpty behind him in a car tail-ended him.
It is not an isolated case. Norfolk "safety camera partnership" and the bbc are covering up the footage that the BBC had clearly showing braking for speed cameras causing accidents.
I'll beleive crime is reducing when i see it. three people I know have had their motorcycles stolen this year that is up from one last year a 300% increase. My partners car was keyed this year thats up from no times last year.
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#19 - Pot_Kettle wrote:
"clearly showing braking for speed cameras causing accidents"
I hate to point out the obvious, but had the drivers in question not been speeding in the first case there would have been no NEED to brake at a camera - hence, it was their speed that killed, nothing to do with the cameras!
Had the motorbike in question braked for any other reason, the same accident could still have occurred, which conclusively proves that sure, speeding in and of itself isn't dangerous - it's the part where you can't stop in time that always causes the tragedies.
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Mark
So if crime rates are falling, why is the prison population growing?
Perhaps it because the conviction rate for custodial sentences is increasing? If it was, wouldn't we be told this as a "good news" story? Or is because sentences have increased? Or is the prison population increasing because custodial offences (ie the more serious crimes) are increasing?
I read a Times article that reported half the London murder victims are foreigners in the second half of 2007 and that 55% of the known suspects were also foreigners. I think this story touches on why the prisons are overflowing, that is the numbers of foreigners coming here and committing serious crimes which nobody talks about. And when they finish their sentences how many are deported?
But I think why we don't feel safe, whatever the crime statistics say, is because we have become a society in which we are afraid to challenge unacceptable behaviour.
We now have a significant minority who are totally arrogant, have no respect for others or authority and who do exactly as they please. If you challenge their behaviour, you run the very real risk of receiving abuse at best and assault at worst. Yobs rely on this fear. We all know of cases from the papers of yobs who murder when challenged.
Only last week 2 policemen in Croydon asked a schoolgirl to pick up some litter she dropped. She did so and immediatley dropped it again. She was asked again to pick it up but quickly a crowd of 30 developed and they savagely beat up the policemen. There is something very wrong with society when this sort of thing happens in broad daylight.
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I was the victim of an unprovoked random assault by violent drunks in a suburban town centre so I have made my contribution to the reduction in crime by no longer walking home from the station. Who collects the statistics on this kind of displacement. My advice is forget the stats - just look at what you see with your own eyes. If you want to improve your chances of finding a violent drunk go to a UK town centre. If you want to avoid them stay at home. Most people regard fear of crime as a very wise and sensible policy.
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So was this covered in the Evening Standard? Or the London Metro or local papers? I'm not sure what other newspapers should have covered it, as a headline story at least.
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Good to hear that crime (especially knife related incidents) is down this year.
To avoid crime, do what the S.A.S. do. "Don't put yourself in a potentially dangerous situation."
e.g Don't walk home by yourself late at night.
Don't use short cuts to get home quicker.
Don't frequent (unless you positively have to) places you normally would not venture into.
If you see trouble, immediately walk away.
Always park your car in a well lit place.
(For the ladies) take a pair of soft soled shoes to put on when leaving a nightclub. No one will hear the "clicking" of high heels and be tempted to follow you.
Have your car/house keys in your hand ready to open up your car/house door.
Lock your car door immediately you are inside.
Do not leave your car keys in the ignition, or in an easily seen/accessible place in your home.
Never leave your car unlocked even when popping into a shop for a second, or to pay for fuel in a garage.
Best wishes for a safe - and long life.
If you are threatened with a knife - give what possesions you have, and hope that the assailant will be satisfied and leave you. (A wallet, watch or diamond ring is a small price to pay to get away with your life).
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Crime may indeed have fallen in numbers if the statistics are to be believed, but that will be due, at least in part, to a significant increase in fear of crime.
Of course muggings will fall if vulnerable people are too scared to go outside and burglaries will fall if we increase home security measure.
Whether the statistics show it or not, I KNOW that crime has increased where I live because my home town is now a horrible place to be, rife with poverty and various local and ethnic gangs that wouldn't have dared do what they get away with now 10 years ago.
Nothing changes the fact that dangerous drug addicts, alcoholism and over-population is a plague that continues to make the UK ever more unpleasant.
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That's actually really good news for UK residents. But it does pose a few questions doesn't it.
Do the decreases reflect similarly across the rest of the UK?
Why have the figures fallen?
Is it the result of more intensive policing, i.e. boots on the street?
Or has just London been selected for a high presence?
Or heaven forbid is the population in general finally standing up and saying - No more. And reporting potential incidents before they happen?
As philsail1 posted - Don't put yourself in the 'X' and don't be a soft target.
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