Parallel Realities
There was a sense of unreality during much of today's marathon debate on the Justice Bill. We had plenty of discussion of SDLP and Ulster Unionist objections to the Sinn Fein DUP deal on a future Justice department. We had the SDLP suggesting December 7th as the date for the transfer of powers. But there seemed little or no acknowledgment of the general belief that the devolution of justice is balanced on a knife edge.
Outside the chamber, in the corridors and the canteen, the chat has all been about whether things could go - as Sinn Fein's Declan Kearney put it - into freefall. DUP politicians aren't happy that the Chief Constable has ruled out the wriggle room they were hoping for in relation to the future employment of individual members of the full time reserve.
Both republicans and unionists talk about the possibility of the transfer of powers not being agreed before Christmas and a breakdown leading to an early Assembly poll. One source even suggested that the knock on impact could be a failure to implement the planned restructuring of local government which might in turn lead to an early council election.
At the same time, you have to remember that before any of the big deals in the past there have always been peaks and troughs. Parties tend to throw shapes or talk up breakdowns as a way of putting pressure on others.
Sinn Fein are undoubtedly angry about the failure of the DUP to move forwards. An early election would give them a chance to give the SDLP a bloody nose at a time when SDLP activists are concentrating on who their future leader should be. It would also punish the DUP by handing the TUV a gilt edged opportunity.
But as the UUP's Alan McFarland predicted during tonight's debate, it's also likely to lead to a three way split in unionism and Martin McGuinness as First Minister. That might appear appealing to Sinn Fein, but they know unionists will probably refuse to play ball and demand a complete renegotiation of the system. Sinn Fein will have to calculate whether bringing that on is in their interests.
Either way the British and Irish governments are increasingly concerned about the failure to make more progress. Shaun Woodward's decision to urge church and business leaders to make their voices heard seemed curious - some leaders may heed his call, but if they do the DUP is likely to explain it away as an NIO organised intervention. Micheál Martin is at Stormont on Wednesday meeting the First and Deputy First. He will no doubt be joining the Secretary of State as a cheerleader for a breakthrough.
Later in the week many of the our ministers (with the exception of Margaret Ritchie who has picked the Assembly's Downpatrick roadshow over Jersey) will be off to the British Irish Council meeting, which is discussing minority languages. Last time I attended a BIC meeting in Jersey the hosts gave us all bags of Jersey potatoes as gifts (which I think were confiscated on our return). We all know devolution of justice is a hot potato, but has Stormont had its chips?
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Mark,
It seems the DUP are struggling to fix Jeffrey's mess from yesterday. I never heard Jeffrey on the media today. Maybe he is in the naughty corner!!
I would love to see an MLA election early next year although I can't see it happen. The position of each party is as follows -
Alliance - I think they would enjoy an election to push for some seats that will be lost to the unionism fighting.
DUP - Would try and oppose it at all costs as they don't want to lose their status as largest party. Also Peter will not give up the First Ministers job unless he is carried out kicking and screaming!!
SDLP - Would not want an election because they don't want to lose even more seats to Sinn Fein. If their MLA team was reduced further they would be on the side lines for years to come.
SF - I think Sinn Fein would enjoy an election to finish off the SDLP and also to try and get Martin as First Minister. Whether that would happen is another thing as if the TUV get their 12-15 seats then the whole thing will collapse for years to come.
UUP - Reg would enjoy an election to put 1 over on the DUP. Whether they would out poll the TUV is unknown.
All I can say is bring it on.
As for Margaret Ritchie bypassing Jersey for Downpatrick I suspect the only reason is that Margaret will use this as a weapon to shore up all SDLP activists votes in her leadership challenge. It is hardly for the electorate.....
Stormontspy
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If Stormont hasn't had its chips make sure to point a chip on each shoulder before setting off.
That's how we do business here, parallel grievances, double negativity and outcomes of always looking back not forward.
Isn't it funny how nationalists of whatever ilk are so great at predicting the past and reconstructing history to suit themselves yet fail miserably when asked to show some useful and relevant leadership for the future.
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While I was not born in what is called "Northern Ireland", my Mother was born in Armagh 84 years ago, so I have an on-going interest. In fact, now that she has Alzheimer's Disease, she now remembers more of her youth than the present day. I do not understand 2 basic things: 1) why many people(like Stephen Nolan) refer to a population the size of the island of Montreal as a "country"; and 2) how a "country" could have an Englishman as their Chief Constable. It makes no sense to me, but then again not much about "the north of Ireland" does.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Mark
WHEN IS A PRE-CONDITION NOT A PRE-CONDITION?
Answer: When Jeffrey says the abolition of the Full Time Reserve is a P & J deal-breaker.
Well, old smug Jeffrey has now found it to be a XXXX-breaker. I'll bet he's reeling from the tirade he received from Robinson who has now had to disassociate himself from Donaldson's ridiculous on-the-hoof pre-condition.
Drinks all round for Sinn Féin and Jim Allister.
PS: I've just heard Jeffrey's formal U-turn on Good Morning Ulster. Confirmation again that weasel words are now the DUP's stock-in-trade.
Susie
Carryduff
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Hello shadowmac
Countries do not have Chief Constables. Police Constabularies, Departments and Services have Chief Constables. It is an employed position, not the head of state. As long as a person has the right to work in that country, province or colony, then their national heritage is irrelevant.
Countries are not granted their status based on the number of people living there, or the square area that they cover. Northern Ireland is not a country, it is not recognised as such by the British Government or by the United Nations. We do not have our own official flag, national anthem or our own Eurovision Song Contest entrant.
Having said all that, Northern Ireland is very much a country and is recognised as such, albeit tacitly, by all who live work or interact here. We have our own language dialects, we have our own currency, we have our own laws and our own (almost) government. We have a unique history and traditions, that are not shared by the rest of the United Kingdom or by Eire. We have an Ulster Unionist tradition that would have surely been destroyed by assimilation as Unionism has been in Eire. We have a Republican tradition that could not have existed in any other part of the UK or for that matter Eire.
A green and white wearing Celtic fan from Ulster has more in common, in every way and on every level with a collerette wearing Orange Man than they do with a similarly attired 'Irish' American. Also both have more in common, with each other, than they do with an RTE watching, Angelus on the TV, 'Spongebob Square Pants dubbed into Irish', citizen of Eire. It is this continuity that makes Northern Ireland a country in the real sense if not so in terms of international law and recognition.
Perhaps you can answer a question for me. Why does our ungrateful colony, Canada insist on calling itself a country when they have our gracious Queen, a English woman as their head of state?
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