Well hung
I was over in London at the start of the week discussing with some colleagues the likely themes in the run up to the next General Election. Although many observers are assuming an outright Conservative victory, as Newsnight's Michael Crick pointed out on his blog in April, this would require the second biggest swing in 60 years.
If we do have a close race and head into "hung parliament" territory, then Northern Ireland may come into its own. Back in February 1974, after all, it was the refusal of the Ulster Unionists to take the Conservative whip which deprived Ted Heath of his ability to form a government.
The Political Betting website chose July 12th as a suitable date to ruminate on Northern Ireland's likely impact on the General Election. Inevitably we shall spend a lot of time focussing on whether the DUP will hold on to all their 9 seats, whether the TUV or UCUNF can make any gains, what Lady Sylvia Hermon will do in North Down and how the battle between Sinn Fein and the SDLP might work out in South Down and elsewhere.
However if the arithmetic across the UK is close, local MPs, no matter which banner they stand under, could have a crucial part to play in the formation of a government (the obvious exception being the abstentionist Sinn Fein). In that case the period immediately after the election could turn out to be even more interesting than the campaign or the counts.
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~57~RS~)
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Mark,
I can't wait for the next general election. A couple of weeks ago I put the following up on this blog -
Looking at previous election results -
2005 25,156 voted Paisley out of 46,226. That is a 54% share of the vote.
2007 21,733 voted DUP 1st preference out of 44,655.
On that evidence Jim Allister would need to win 13,000 votes. It is a big task which I can't see him winning. If he doesn't get in there he will definitely get an MLA post.
An interesting thought would be if the nationalist parties spoiled the party. If SDLP and Sinn Fein only fielded 1 candidate and asked both supporters to support the 1 candidate it would not only spoil the party it would ruin unionism....
I think if the SDLP and Sinn Fein were to read this then they might have a few ideas. But then we don't know if they read this or not!!
Stormontspy
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Why should it not be the second biggest swing in 60 years? There is a first for everything, if not a second.
There is also a piece of information missing from your comparison with 1974 - Sunningdale. With respect, you are not comparing like with like.
The swing of opinion polls in favour of the Conservatices in the marginal constituencies far outstrips the national uniform swing, thanks largely to the work which has been put in by Lord Ashcroft and his team but you know all of that, dont you?
Mark, your fantasies are noted but really, the chances of a hung parliament are miniscule.
One other thing. If Sinn Fein win five seats, a hung parliament means the Conservatives have 322 or less, not 325 or less
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