"We haven't gone away, you know"
That was what Jim Allister promised during his speech after the final election result was declared. After the obvious parody of Gerry Adams' comment on the IRA, some Sinn Feiners shouted "get your own lines". But up at Stormont this will be no joking matter.
The TUV leader lost his seat, but was the winner in every other way (what is the opposite of a Pyrrhic victory?). He vowed to contest North Antrim at the next Westminster election. That could be quite a contest, presumably against Ian Paisley Jr. Over the weekend UCUNF tallies had suggested that the TUV had outpolled the DUP in the constituency.
Mr Allister also told the DUP's Stormont team that his vote amounted to a series of "P45s" for those MLAs who had put their chequebooks before their consciences. He wants to build an anti-power sharing bridgehead at Stormont.
The DUP Director of Elections Jeffrey Donaldson denied that his party would go back into its shell and head in the direction of the TUV. But in her acceptance speech Diane Dodds (who came in under quota) promised to thwart the republican agenda. She refused to shake Bairbre De Brun's hand.
Who shakes whose hand doesn't really matter, but the key question will be whether this means things slow down even more at Stormont. Will we get the devolution of justice by Christmas?
Jim Nicholson (who got more TUV transfers than Diane Dodds) didn't hide his enjoyment at being elected for the first time ahead of the DUP. He pledged that "we're back". and although he couldn't say to what extent the Cameron factor had helped him stabilise his vote, he argued that it had added more support than it had cost.
European elections are different, and this may be a high water mark for Jim Allister, given the expenses saga and the ability to use a European poll as a protest vote. But if the three way split in unionism was replicated in the next Assembly election, it could mean that Sinn Fein become Stormont's biggest party.
Under the St Andrews Agreement Act 2006, the biggest party, even if it doesn't come from the biggest designation has the right to appoint the First Minister. Could unionism wear that? Maybe they should be changing the titles to Joint First Ministers now.
I'm 
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Mark,
Several questions and comments.
1. Will the DUP now realise that they are party in a decline?
2. Who was Diane Dodds election agent? Diane thanked Maurice Morrow but the DUP last year and you just now stated that it was Jeffrey Donaldson.
3. Will Peter Robinson share power with Sinn Fein whenever Sinn Fein top the poll at the next local elections? I strongly doubt it.
4. Is it not an idea for Jim Allister to stand in somewhere like North Down?
The only alternative to DUP/Sinn Fein is SDLP and UUP but them 2 parties cannot represent their people.
Stormontspy
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A few comments.
I am absolutely thrilled that UUP/Tories yet their vote after their risky union. There has always been theories that if Northern Irish politics normalised whether the main parties on the "mainland" UK would run here or if they did, could they be sucessful. I'm glad to to see the Tories (now the only UK national party), to get a foothold in Northern Ireland even though I don't agree with all of their policies.
The Northern Irish people deserve to be in the centre of British politics and not only used when there is a tight vote in Parliament.
Could Labour and Lib Dems look over here with the sucess of the UUP/Tory Alliance and wonder if they should challenge? Lib Dems already has close links with Alliance. I hope one day we get to choose between Tories/Labour/Lib Dems.
Mark, do you think the Tory/UUP alliance could be have greater sucess?
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I don't think the DUP will accept that they're 'a party in decline' until these results are replicated in the next election.
Many people laughed at Reg Empty's Conservative pact but it looks like it work it could work out really well for them. Barring a seismic shift in British politics the Tories will win in a landslide come the next GE. If UUP MPs are elected they will be in positions of power and have a real tangible connection to Britain (and not just unionism).
I suspect this could be a real draw for unionist voters and as it becomes more apparent that Cameron's going to be the next PM the UUP's going to become the bigger threat to the DUP vote than the TUV IMO, but both are definitely a real threat.
I too doubt Robinson'll be able to stomach being Martin's deputy (even though they're both equal in everything but name). But sure it I'll be a nether great opportunity for our MLA's to take an extended paid holiday on us by refusing to do their jobs. Sadly in NI the trivialities of a title trump things like health and education.
The SDLP have consolidated their vote which is nice to see (especially given the growth of the Alliance and greens vote). The more options we have in politics here the better especially if they give us a real chance of electing someone who doesn't put the constitutional question at the fore of their manifesto.
As for Allister contesting North Down I think that wouldn't be wise. It would be seen as him being too afraid to take on a DUP heart land, which is probably why he's targeted someone like Paisley Jr.
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I'm delighted to see the DUP put in their place this election, despite the fact that it was by Jim Allister, whose politics belong with the Ark. Perhaps now Robbo will realise that you can't act as pompously and arrongantly as he and his party have done towards the electorate and get away with it. To be perfectly honest I'd like to see Allister elected in North Antrim, anything to put the DUP (and more specifically Junior) in their place.
And GarzaofBelfast the Tories are not the only UK wide political party. Labour are present in Northern Ireland and will be running in elections very soon, the party having asked for prospective candidates for NI constituencies.
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"He wants to build an anti-power sharing bridgehead at Stormont."
By this do you mean anti-Sinn Fein or anti-Catholic? Would Jim Allister interact and work with SDLP or is that prohibited as well?
"But in her acceptance speech Diane Dodds (who came in under quota) promised to thwart the republican agenda."
Wow, she really is a stuck record. She will have a lot of learning to do to become an effective MEP for everyone living here.
I'm really glad the UUP beat DUP and only wish SDLP was on there as well to knock the DUP off and perhaps teach them a bit of much needed humility.
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Luke_NI, I though the labour party fell apart in the late 1980's, but I quick google search finds I am wrong, the Labour Party are now an offical party in NI this year. Good tidings indeed!
http://www.labourpartyni.org/
It's going to be tought for them though, not much of a socialist unionist populace here. We seem to either consist of laid back liberals and conservatives or fire preaching, bible bashing social conservatives or just downright facists.
Sigh maybe one day we will have normal politics and a REAL voice. Going to take decades though.
Cosmic, I think the unionist population is hungry to be really heard in Westminister. I was worried how the UPP/Tory alliance would affect its vote, to my delight, didn't affect it whatsoever. With TUV and DUP cancelling each other out, I think the NI cons could have a great shot at some seats if they get 20% of the vote.
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North Down is perhaps the most affluent constituency and the most moderate one along with South Belfast in Northern Ireland. McCartney was moved on by the electorate and the Greens got their first MLA. If the Tories are popular anywhere it is there and as such I see the UCUNF coasting home next time. North Antrim is the best seat Jim could go for especially as Ian Paisley Jr's reputation has been somewhat damaged in the last year or two and if the TUV will win anywhere it is probably there.
Although I would have supported Jim Allister on his European record, and also having met him myself in Brussel, I am very pleased that the Conservative influence on the UUP vote has been positive and hopefully this is a major step towards the normalisation of politics in Northern Ireland.
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Same tribal politics again with the only issue being who split what vote, maybe europe/health/education/tax/employment will become policy for this lot in the next decade when the old men in suits have retired....
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Well done Jim Nicholson, Sir Reg and Owen Patterson, Shadow Secretary of State, who should get a lot of credit for this victory by the Tories. Finally, we are starting to see the normalisation of politics here, even it was an inintended consequence of the presence of Jim Allister.
What now for the DUP and Peter Robinson? There are some similarities to Robinson and Gordon Brown. Both have no personality, they are control freaks with no vision (What is Robinson actually wanting to do for Northern Ireland as First Minister?), they spent years wanting to become leader, and when they did, they destroyed their core votes. Not great examples of politicians, or statesmen either.
I wonder does the media need to take some responsibility for the lack of coverage of a major Tory win here? Can you guys not get your heads around the normalisation of politics?
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Great result yesterday for the CU's. It may seem churlish to be casting doubt on Jim Nick after he had been written off for dead but you have to wonder if the CU's had had a more dynamic and articulate candidate then they may have outpolled the DUP by awide margin on the first preferences. I wonder how Lady Hermon is feelling today? The new grouping she wrote off had a strong result while her beloved Gordon led Labour to it's worst election result in 99 years!
I'm delighted to see the DUP get a taste of it's own medicine, Robinson blamed the result on a split unionist vote, sounding exactly as Trimble did 10 years ago! For years the DUP were happy to see SF and the SDLP win seats as long as the UUP didn't get them, eg F&ST 2001, and Allister just did to them what they did to Trimble. They cannot be written off but they have some serious thinking to do. The DUP has always been a pretty implausible alliance between the hard core Never! Never! Never! brigade and a more secular group of people who were just dissatisfied with British policy in NI. Paisley held the whole lot totgether through force of personality and a sense of common purpose, now the common purpose has gone and Robinson doesn't have the charisma of Paisley. There have been rumours of further defections in the DUP in the coming weeks right up to MLA level, it will be interesting to see if any others do jump ship.
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Agree with you about Jim Nicholson, but at least he came through when it mattered. I'm not sure the Tories care about what Hermon will do now, who would want to be associated with Labour? A few defections would be great. I would like to see Simon Hamilton step away from the dark side, he is more Tory than DUP I reckon.
I think Diane Dodds has succeeded in two things, 1.bringing Jim Allister into the mainstream through her amateur approach to this election, and 2. alienating traditional DUP voters and activists simply be being chosen as the candidate. If I was a DUP activist, I would start to wonder why I am being asked to vote for family not party, particularly if I had political aspirations myself.
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Peter Robinson and the Dup talk of the split in unionism. Does he not remember shouting at D.Trimble out canvassing calling him a lundy etc. The Dup have done nothing but split unionism since their inception. They caused a split in the Presbyterian church , the loyal orders and the unionist cause. They misled the electoral at the last election about going into power with Sinn Fein. The electoral on the unionist side need a party that tells the truth and that is not the Dup. The link between the Conservatives and the UUP is like a breath of fresh air in the N Ireland political landscape
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Mark
TWITS GIVE EUROPE A DIMWIT, A HALFWIT & A NITWIT
The voters who plumped for this unholy trinity will reap big trouble in the coming months.
Allister's showing yesterday has clearly spooked the DUP who will now see the spectre of Sinn Fein becoming the largest Party in 2011. The danger now is that the DUP will look for ways to get their backwoodsmen back in line. For that reason, Robinson will put devolution of P & J on the long-finger which, in turn, will lead to another suspension.
PS: Let's hope that with the fallout from yesterday, Peter & Iris don't forget to claim the May food allowance of four hundred pounds (each) from Westminster. A constant supply of gravy will help them keep their strength up for the fight ahead.
Susie
Carryduff
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And why exactly susie would any unionist want sinn fein to be the biggest party?
I am glad that Jim Allister will not in europe this time. I did not elect him last time so he could go to europe to speak on bath water in Sardinia.
I did vote for him to strengthen the DUPs hand for internal northern ireland politics, but then he abandoned his manifesto and the 'Devolution Now' document which he paraded in America.
He now advocates the return of direct rule....devolution now....direct rule....wow say them together and you realise how much Allisters position has changed.
Oh and susie he got 1400 euro for flights but only used 400 according to himself on the nolan show. so thats 1000 euro extra he kept every time he went to europe. 103 times this year just ended, times 5 years, times 1000....over half a million euro. he must be gutted. still hes had a enough gravy for a lifetime.
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Madge
FORGET ALLISTER, CONCENTRATE ON THE IMPORTANT ISSUE
I didn't say that Unionists want Sinn Fein to be the largest Party but, against a background of the TUV leeching votes from the DUP, that is going to be the end result.
Anyway, forget Allister, the really important issue is that Peter & Iris don't forget to claim the May food allowance of four hundred pounds (each) from Westminster.
Ah, lovely, yummy gravy - Slurp! Slurp!
Susie
Carryduff
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Madge,
I hope Diane Dodds will be able to answer the following questions in due course -
1. Have family relatives ever been paid any money from the European Parliament?
2. If so, which family members?
3. Who owns her office facilities?
4. MEPs are paid a flat rate of EUR1200 for every return trip to the European Parliament that they make, the Parliament allows MEPs to keep money not spent on the cost of travelling to and from the Parliament. What does she do with the surplus?
5. MEPs are paid a daily allowance to cover the cost of food and hotel accommodation of EUR287. What does she do with the surplus?
6. MEPs receive a communication allowance of some EUR38000. How much of this has been spent and on what was it spent?
Stormontspy
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Stormontspy,
To answer one of your original questions, I'm pretty sure Maurice Morrow was Diane Dodds' election agent, though Jeffery Donaldson was the director of elections. I think the election agents role is more to make sure all the technicalitiesare been followed and liase with the likes the electoral office, wheras Donaldson would have been responsible for overall strategy and the organising throughout the country.
With regards to the Allister situation, I really hope the majority 66,000 people who voted for him did so because of:
1. Diane Dodds looking incredibly out of her depth and lacking charisma
2. The expenses issues
3. The continued deadlock at Stormont
As someone said, Allisters beliefs belong with the ark, he has nothing to offer most people here. I was at the kings hall on Monday and the behaviour of him and his supporters was an embarassment to every single person in this country. Standing in North Antrim would be a double edged sword, it's probably the place where he would have most support but it would still be incredibly risky taking on a Paisley, even though it is a lightweight version in Ian Jr.
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Susie, you don't seem to understand that Allister is the issue.
In 1987 he showed that he was not a unionist or a public representative. The DUP agreed an electoral pact with the UUP for the good of unionism and the electorate, what did Jim Allister do? Left front line politics. That is the measure of the man, he didnt get his way so stuff unionism, stuff public service....i'll make myself a fortune in private business.
Now he is well entitled to do that...but take the likes of Nigel Dodds. Only elected to Westminster in 2001. So from 1987 to 2001 he served the public without great reward. He is a unionist and a public servant.
Allister is now proving his own arrogance again. His actions have damaged unionism, and left Sinn Fein at the top of the poll in a provincewide election. His continued intervention in unionist politics is self serving and advancing the republican agenda.
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Mark, I've been a long time reader of your blogs whilst abroad, along with many others. Obviously there are times I agree and disagree, but I took issue with one thing in this blog.
From Blog:
"Who shakes whose hand doesn't really matter..."
I found it dissapointing on many levels that a politician who is bound for Europe, in order to sell and promote NI, wouldn't shake hands with another elected official. I thought that we had moved on from this sort of childish, out-dated behaviour. Embarrassing would be an understatement. How does it make us look in Brussels? Like fools.
So I do think that it matters, and that it is a let down to hear the Political Editor of BBC NI dismissing it as acceptable behaviour, especially as I've enjoyed your analysis in the past.
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I have to agree with Big Issue because this not just about petty politicians behaving like spoilt children. This image permeates down into society where communities and community activists who are still dealing with hard issues at interfaces. Unfortunately they too seem at times unable to simply shake hands. Is it long held sectarian views or are they reflecting our politicians? Perhaps its a bit of both but our politicians need to show some real leadership that will help re build shattered communities across NI.
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"Under the St Andrews Agreement Act 2006, the biggest party, even if it doesn't come from the biggest designation has the right to appoint the First Minister."
That does not seem to be the case
4) The nominating officer of the largest political party of the LARGEST POLITICAL DESIGNATION largest shall nominate a member of the Assembly to be the First Minister.
Am I missing something?
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