The official turnout figure
The Chief Electoral Officer Douglas Bain has just confirmed the overall turnout figure for the European election. It's 42.81 % the lowest in recent times.
Is the apathy a reflection of antipathy towards politics in the wake of the Westminster expenses scandal and a sense that all politicians are on the "gravy train"? Or maybe we should look on the bright side - in the past Northern Ireland's exceptionally high turnouts were a by product of the troubled times and a determination from voters to keep the other side out. So maybe a level of relative disinterest is a sign of a more normal society?
Lats time I blogged I still remained to be convinced that the SDLP could squeeze in. Now I'm not so sure. If the scenario which Diane Dodds described as a "disaster for unionism" played out what would be the implications for the Robinson leadership. Could the DUP, looking over its shoulder at Jim Allister, mount a go slow on policy at Stormont?
Although the general turnout might have been down, one voter who did make an extra effort was the Ulster Unionist MLA Billy Armstrong. He'd ruptured his vertebrae in an accident at home on Friday and was in Antrim Hospital. He had to be fitted with a brace at the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast, but from his prone position in the back of the car he insisted on a diversion on his way back to Antrim hospital. You guessed it all braced up for voting, he wanted to stop off at his polling station in Stewartstown.
The last six constituency turnouts were
East L derry 42.34%
Foyle 44.35%
Ferm Sth Tyrone 51.52%
West Tyrone 50.27%
U Bann 41.81%
Newry Armagh 49.05%
Overall Total 42.81%
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Sorry Mark,
pardon my stupidity here but do you think that the SDLp still has an outside chance of getting the final seat or at the very least. making a fight of it?
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Mark,
In your last blog post you said - "The SDLP looks to have polled well in some urban areas like South and North Belfast but less well in some rural areas like Mid Ulster. It's too early to say whether they stand a realistic chance of grabbing the third and final seat. Maybe it's a mathematical possibility but I'd be very surprised if it happens."
In this blog post you say - "Last time I blogged I still remained to be convinced that the SDLP could squeeze in. Now I'm not so sure."
What makes you changed your mind?
I sincerely hope Diane Dodds is not elected. She stood on the ticket of a sectarian vote and we need to move on.
If Diane is not elected the DUP will be in turmoil. Peter Robinson has already made a laughing stock of himself. This will leave the DUP in chaos. Will Robinson go? One way or the other he is going to have to face up to the fact that in 2011 he will be Deputy First Minister. We all know that Robinson will not serve under McGuinness so Northern Ireland will be set back 20 years.
The joy of local politics!!
Stormontspy
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"Could the DUP, looking over its shoulder at Jim Allister, mount a go slow on policy at Stormont?"
A go slow is what I think of Robinson: anger, rhetoric, pettiness and a total lack of policy. There is no vision of the future, there is just gravy train for the present.
Michael Mc Gimpsey and Michelle Gildernew seem to me to be good examples of ministers busy doing their work well and not getting involved in spin. The DUP, on the other hand, are lacking in any positive momentum.
Given the economic recesssion and the heightened awareness of climate change problems, it seems obvious to me that we could start turning around both problems through green technologies and green business. I think there are thousands of potential jobs there and a continually growing market in the next few years. Can the DUP ministers of finance, enterprise and environment get their act together and do something please?
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"Can the DUP ministers of finance, enterprise and environment get their act together and do something please?"
I doubt in Patrick, the DUP's minds are still in the past enslaved to the mind of bible-bashing social conservatism. I mean Wilson's (my freakin MP), denial of climate change is in the same class as Moon Landing deniers. DUP's hostility towards science is contributing to the brain drain. I'm a biology student, I am leaving here as soon as I can. I just got word that the DUP is trying to push creationism in science classes!! Are we in the freaking middle east or something? Sinn Fein and the DUP have been terrible in stormount, Northern Ireland needs the revival of moderatism, badly, very badly.
I voted for the Tories, not because I agree with their policies, but because I am dying to vote for Conservative/Lib Dem/Labour like any other citizen in the UK.
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Wow wow wow GarzaofBelfast!
I am not a DUP voter nor a Sammy Wilson fan but you said:
"I mean Wilson's (my freakin MP), denial of climate change is in the same class as Moon Landing deniers."
That is not true. You are not a climate scientist and nor am I but we can both quickly find out the following:
(1) Most people promoting the theory of global warming are NOT climate scientists
(2) Among specialist climate scientists there is considerable debate as to whether global warming theory is correct
(3) Global temperatures have not in fact risen so far since 2000 - that is in spite of the pro-global warming computer models predicting they would.
(4) Global warming is a theory which arises out of computerised mathematical models of global climate - all of which produce very different outputs from very minor changes in inputs.
(5) Said models do not predict climate correctly if run backwards into the past and then compared with historical data
Less scientifically but still worth thinking about:
(6) Why do you believe in man-made global warming? Do you understand the origins of the theory? What evaluation of the evidence did you perform that persuaded you?
(5) You wouldn't trust a weather forecast for next month - why are you trusting one for 100 years time, seemingly without question?
(8) One of the leading proponents of global warming theory is the same man who promoted the idea of an immanent new ice-age in the 1970s (guy from NASA, name escapes me right now)
And finally:
(9) Even if, in spite of the considerable evidence to the contrary, we do warm a little why is that a problem and why can we not just adapt our society? - humans live in every climate zone on earth more or less and are eminently adaptable. This option is likely to cost less than the crazy CO2 mitigation plans and also avoids the unintended consequences of some of the crazy "solutions" to CO2 proposed, which range from reversing the industrial revolution to pouring megatons of chemicals into pristine ocean to trigger an algal bloom to eat up CO2 (and what other consequences me wonders).
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Ref 6. stevemrsteve
I can't believe people are still debating this. It's a no brainer:
You don't need to be a climatologist to know that pumping vast clouds of pollution into the air that we breathe is not a good idea. Agreed?
You don't need to be an geo-scientist to know that oil and coal are finite resource and the remaining stock reduces everyday. Agreed?
You don't need to be a statistician to realise we either do something or nothing. Agreed?
If we do something now, we lose nothing if we later find it proves to be wrong. We've cleaned up the atmosphere, and we've prolonged carbon fuel stocks.
Whereas if we do nothing now, and we find out later man-made climate change was occurring, we lose....everything!
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I don't want to even begin to hope that the DUP vote has humiliatingly collapsed until I see the first preference figures! I am glad to see the DUP being given a dose of it's own medicine, to me it's just a pity that's it's someone like Allister who is benefiting, choosing between TUV and the DUP is like trying to decide if you want to be pillaged by Ghengis Khan or Atilla The Hun! If Allister does poll as well as some people suggest and he establishes TUV for the medium term at least, then I reckon he'll stand against Baby Doc in North Antrim at the GE. What fun that will be!!
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Just some numbers after alot of crunching, Sinn Fein will top the pole with around 27% Dup will have around 20% UCUNF 14% TUV 13% Not sure about the SDLP but they are in with a shout for the last seat. Seats could be SF 1 DUP1 and SDLP or UCUNF 1 the transfers will be interesting to watch.
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Lisburn DUP,
Where are you getting your figures or is it another publicity stunt?
Stormontspy
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LisburnDUP
Your numbers are funny :-) see you back commenting on Monday?
Off-topic:
Richard_SM
I agree re finite resources and pollution BUT CO2 is not pollution, in fact it is food for plants who use CO2 & sunlight to make energy... So yes reduce fossil fuel use but not because of CO2, but because of the actual pollutants, and no need to take crazy measures to do it - do it gradually.
So forget CO2 - deal with real pollution - we agree on that much.
My problem is that this jumped up theory of global warming has become accepted as gospel truth and is leading people to do crazy things - eg. very seriously propose to seed the oceans with chemicals to produce algal blooms (v. dangerous thinking I reckon), or tax carbon (we need less not more taxes in life and this one will simply shift our jobs to other countries, not reduce CO2), or carbon offsetting (which is simply fraud perpetrated by clever and amoral business folk and doesn't actually reduce CO2 in most cases when investigated).
We also get folk promoting electric cars, when electricity production almost all generates CO2 and the environmental effects of battery related manufacture/disposal can be very nasty. Got to think of the whole cycle of a product not just the car when driven - how much CO2 emitted in producing an electric vs normal car?
In essence my problem is people are not thinking or analysing, just acting off the latest trend. Most/all public discussion of global warming theory has become emotion-based, not science-based and that is a problem.
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YES - THE SDLP COULD WIN A SEAT
Most pundits agree, Sinn Fein will reach the quota on the first count: then some second preference transfers will go to SDLP. No other candiate is likely to reach the quota on the first count.
SDLP with the help of second preference votes from the Greens and Alliance (both being eliminated), will need to be ahead of the two lowest unionists to secure a seat. (If the SDLP is eliminated, then much will depend on tactical voting, ie preference transfers to others to keep out the DUP).
The lowest of the three unionists will then be eliminated and the preference transfers to the other two unionists, the one with the highest votes securing the third seat.
BUT...taking the three unionist (Us) candidates:
*If Nicholson is elected or eliminated first of the three Us, then transfers will most likely got to Allister rather than Dodds.
*If Allister is elected or eliminated first of the three Us, then transfers will most likely go to Nicholson.
*If Dodds is elected or eliminated first of the three Us, then it is most likely that some transfers will go to Nicholson.
My prediction: SF; UCUNF; TUV.
Pandora
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Ref 11. stevemrsteve
As the coal face in an underground mine moved forward, cages containing canaries were hung along the shaft to alert the miners to poisonous odourless gas. How many dead canaries would you need before you'd accept there was a problem?
There are now numerous examples of dead 'canaries in the coal mine.' If you can't be bothered to find this simple evidence out, but prefer to immerse yourself in your own junior science class then you are in denial.
You accept that pollution is not good. You accept that coal/oil are finite resources - but you're arguing against a carbon tax! How illogical is that?
I can answer your points about the oceans, but I can't do it on a blog page. It's not even GCSE Science, but please - not on a blog page.
How about this for an idea? Would you be prepared to spend say, ten pounds on finding out more (and being mildly entertained at the same time), (you could even get half your money back later). There's two documentaries that set out the basics. Al Gore is trying to get the message across through his documentary, "The Inconvenient Truth." (2006) And Leonardo DiCaprio/Mikheil Gorbachev are doing the same with their documentary, "The Eleventh Hour." (2008) Both these DVD's were around 15 pounds each when they were released. They're now a fiver each from that well known book/CD/DVD shopping website named after a well known river in South America. (I've named it before on BBC website and it gets moderated) (Of course you can buy them from elsewhere as well) Gore's DVD is a presentation, with some humour, graphs, displays, examples and nice music. Leonardo's documentary is a collection of about 50 different scientists - biologists, climatologists, economists etc with music from a different bands including Coldplay. Both suit any age group. If you think you're going to be brainwashed, you can relax. They simply lay out the evidence - they point to the strengths and the weaknesses of their argument. But do consider why would Al Gore(USA=Capitalist) and Mikheil Gorbachev(USSR=Communist), who are both rich enough to retire happily be spending so much of their life now trying to convince the public and world leaders?
Anyone reading - please don't complain. This is very much "on-topic." . This is a political issue. The politicians have to get serious about the environment. Why? Because we live there. It affects our economy, our children, our health, our employment, our lifestyles. Many poloticians prefer to ignore it - its "Inconvenient." But actually, if you're looking for an issue that would unite communities - the threat to the whole of human life itself sure puts things into perspective.
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Exactly Richard, prior to Sammy Wilson becoming environment minister, it had been my belief that green issues, if we can name them as such in our political climate, were something that were free from party politics. I had thought everybody to be on the same page on this. Cetainly Arlene Foster, while I didn't agree with absolutely everything she did in the role, was a pretty effective environment minister herself.
The main thrust of my original point above is that green technology looks to be an emerging market that could be latched onto, funded and researched during this time of recession. Probably even could get loads of European investment too. President Obama has already shown interest in trying to head his economy in this direction, and if I remember correctly, I thought Ian Paisley Senior and Martin McGuinness were talking about this to potential American investors at the conferences before the recession kicked in?
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Richard_SM
Al Gore's piece is a polemic not a documentary. Go look at any serious critique of it. I note that you have resorted to belittling me and my understanding. Go read the research (i.e. the scientific stuff not the one-sided "documentaries" and press-releases from enviro-lobby groups). For the record I used to lazily assume global warming theory was true, just like everyone else, then I took an interest and started reading and quickly realised how shaky are its foundations.
In any case this blog not the place for this, so I shall desist - sorry Mark!
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I have read numerous scientific reports. In 2003 I probably read in excess of a hundred scientific reports. Each year I read between 20 and 40 reports as new information comes in. I can tell from the points you ask in your first post that you are at an entry level on the subject. Here's what you wrote:
"Among specialist climate scientists there is considerable debate as to whether global warming theory is correct"
There is NO debate amongst all the scientists that Global Warming is happening. A small number of scientists still question how much man contributes to the warming.
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Richard_SM
You have tempted me back :-)
(1) mea culpa - I left out the word anthropogenic in the bit you quoted me on.
(2) Might I enquire as to what your job is that had you appraising the reports and what manner of organisation it is in? Or to put it bluntly are you a lobbyist, activist, politician (doubt it if you can read scientific reports), researcher for a politician/party, etc.?
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Ref 17 stevemrsteve
You're too suspicious. I'm an ordinary member of the public. I did an OU degree primarily for fun!
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stormontspy and stevemrsteve
The numbers i posted overall were very close to the result (post 9).
I said sinn fein around 27% they got 26% close ???
DUP around 20% they got 18.2% fairly close ???
TUV around 13% they got 13.7 Very close ???
UCUNF around 14% they got 17.1% a bit out ???
I said the seats would be SF 1 DUP 1 and a seat for UCUNF or SDLP not far away there either.
SO do you still think the numbers were a publicity stunt of funny ???
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