A count and a coup
I'm in the office preparing for this lunchtime's Inside Politics. We have Kate Hoey on the attempted coup against Gordon Brown in London, and the Alliance General Secretary, Gerry Lynch, who is a respected tallyman, on the prospects for the count at the King's Hall tomorrow. I shall also be joined by the former lagan valley MLA Seamus Close and the Sunday World's Roisin Gorman.
Over the weekend the parties have been crunching their figures. In the south the tallymen have a long and distinguished history of calling elections ahead of time. Here it's sometimes a more haphazard operation, although Alliance in particular has great expertise in the area.
Tallying means looking over the shoulders of the election workers checking the ballot papers and noting down as many first preferences as you can. The party activists don't see all the papers, and as they are by definition partisan there is an understandable tendency for them to look out for their own first preferences and to concentrate on their own areas. That's why tallies tend to be biased towards those who take them.
But putting all those cayeats in place, it's clear that Sinn Fein has topped the poll handsomely, Jim Allister has gouged a big bite out of the DUP vote and Jim Nicholson has held his position better than many might have predicted. The SDLP now appear to be conceding that they won't be able to grab a seat from the fragmented unionists.
One UCUNF tally I was given yesterday was as follows:
Sinn Fein 26.5% 130,000 votes
UCUNF 18.5% 91,000 votes
DUP 16.9% 84,000 votes
SDLP 15.1% 75,000 votes
TUV 14% 70,000 votes
Alliance 5% 25,000 votes
Greens 3% 15,000 votes
i haven't had such a detailed read out from the somewhat deflated looking DUP officials but when I was last talking to them they maintained they were in the lead of the unionist pack on around 18 - 20% to the UUP's 16% and the TUV's 14%.
There were interesting stories about individual constituencies. UCUNF maintained that Jim Allister had won out in North Antrim, although the DUP in North Antrim denied this. UCUNF also said Jim Nicholson had clearly won DUP seats like Lagan Valley and Upper Bann.
The Westminster expenses story and doubts about Diane Dodds' TV performances (most notably the last Politics Show debate) clearly played into the DUP reversal. As the dominant party in the Executive they were also always going to be in line to be hit by a protest vote (quite a turn around for a party founded on protest).
However I think one of the most important factors is that this was the first election since the DUP did its deal with Sinn Fein. They were always going to lose a section of their "never, never, never" support base. If he has got anything like 70,000 votes Jim Allister will have built massively on the 10,452 votes garnered by Bob McCartney in the 2007 Assembly elections. Indeed he will have more or less replicated his party's showing in the Dromore by-election where Keith Harbinson got 27% of the unionist vote.
UPDATE: As the Alliance General Secretary Gerry Lynch just explained on Inside Politics, tallying is harder in European elections than other counts because, during the verification process, the election workers keep the ballot papers face down. So party activists are trying to spot "1s" for their candidate by peering through to the other side of the paper.
Kate Hoey told us she backs Alan Johnson, but isn't convinced now is the right time for Gordon Brown to step down. She also ruled herself out of the election for Speaker and scotched some rumours about the possibility of her returning to Northern Ireland to hook up with the DUP.
On the newswires the Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has just said that bringing forward a Dail election would be "catastrophic". Now doesn't that remind you of another political leader who recently argued that an early election would bring "chaos".
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~54~RS~)
Comments
Sign in or register to comment.
Mark,
The political landscape is changing right in front off our eyes. This will be the turning point for the DUP. For Diane Dodds to say that the DUP are "thwarting Sinn Fein" has proved to be nothing more than a lie. Will the DUP now stop double jobbing? Peter Robinsons leadership is facing meltdown. How is he going to stop Jim Allister? The DUP was built on "Never, Never, Never" and they always polled well. Now the TUV is built on "Never, Never, Never".
Interesting times
Stormontspy
Complain about this comment
It will be fascinating what the DUP come up with to spin this result! Or perhaps they will learn some humility? I personally doubt but interesting times indeed.
Complain about this comment
ALLIANCE - STUCK IN A HYPOCRITICAL NON-SECTARIAN RUT!
While I listened with interest to your Alliance Party guest Gerry Lynch talking about tallying procedures, I didn't warm to his remarks about the sectarian vote. It is well known Alliance policy is to accuse anyone who doesn't vote for them as being 'sectarian'.
Mr Lynch was particular in pressing home his point with regard to Jim Allister. Perhaps those voting for Mr Allister were doing so on his record as an MEP.
*Jim Allister was voted top of the list of MEPs for his attendance at Europe by the Taxpayers' Alliance.
*Jim Allister has published his expenses, while Jim Nicholson refuses to do so, giving the impression there is something underhand.
While all the other NI parties have committed to abandoning double and triple jobbing, it is obvious that with the new Lord Mayor of Belfast, Naomi Long, the Alliance Party is heading off in the opposite direction with 'Miss Splendid' in the back seat of the Mayoral limousine!
The Alliance Party is stuck at around 5% to 6% in recent elections and obviously intends to remain here - stuck in a non-sectarian rut.
Why vote for the DUP who intend to gift Policing and Justice to a polical party that commands only 5% of the popular vote? And what hypocrisy when Alliance is willing to accept this on their terms from a 'sectarian' party - or is it two 'sectarian' parties if Sinn Fein is included?
I look forward to seeing the new Policing and Justice Minister being flanked on either side by the First and Deputy First Ministers representing 'sectarianism'.
Pandora
Complain about this comment
It looks to me that the DUP vote is getting squeezed. The DUP were going to lose the never, never, never votes, but I never would have thought it consisted of 70,000 votes. People wonder why there is a brain drain in NI, look at the TUV.
I suspected that the DUP would lost a few votes to UUP/Tories as well. When politics normalises, the moderate voters go back to moderate parties. Sinn Fein's will be first, but will have gone down in percentage share, and SDLP will have gone up.
The DUP is in danger of being squeezed out in the future though in my opinion.
Complain about this comment
But the parties still try hard to get around the face down rule ... as illustrated over at http://alaninbelfast.blogspot.com/2009/06/verification-demystification.html
Complain about this comment
Purely as a matter of interest, why are the votes in NI not counted at the same time as those on the Mainland? I'd like to hear a credible and cogent response from the electoral authorities before condemnation!
Complain about this comment
I assume it's some ancient rule they can't work on a Sunday!
Complain about this comment
Any idea when the first preference count will be completed.
Complain about this comment
@JPSLotus79 It took in the region of three hours to verify (physically count) the ballots from each box on Friday. So I imagine it will take at least as long as today they need to sorted into candidate piles and the doubtful/spoiled ballots would need to be dealt with before the first preferences can be declared. They started counting at 9am ... so lunchtime would be the earliest I'd imagine.
Complain about this comment
FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES
Agnew, Green Party: 15,764
Allister, Traditional Unionist Voice - 66,197
De Brun, Sinn Fein - 126,184
Dodds, DUP - 88,346
Maginness, SDLP - 78,489
Nicholson, Ulster Conservative and Unionist - 82,893
Parsley, Alliance - 26,699
Quota: 121,144
Agnew and Parsley eliminated, De Bruin elected.
So SF top the poll, sure to set off recriminations in the DUP, and Dodds manages to comein ahead of Nicholson. It all depends on how the transfers break but DUP and CU's to retain their seats.
Complain about this comment
Disappointed that SDLP and UUP/Tories gained so little, particularly how Sinn Fein has made a mess out of our education system. Just proves its the constitutional question that rules our politics not policies or political performance.
TUV if they keep this performance up will get a few assembly seats as well, not good. Just hope DUP holds their nerve and doesn't make life in the assembly even more unbearable.
Complain about this comment
View these comments in RSS