Why poll numbers vary
Back on the horserace - has it really tightened as AP suggests?
A pollster tells me the reason AP's figures are different from most other polls is that they take a very strict view on the subject of who counts as a "likely voter". The list of questions that they ask to determine likely voting includes whether you have voted in the past. Aha. So quite a few Obama people get missed out. Some other polls just assume all registered voters are likely voters - equally suspect in reasoning. So AP is a useful corrective but not quite the shock tightening of the race that Matt Drudge hopes it is...
Meanwhile, I missed this when it was first published, but it supports my argument that McCain might be the prefered outcome for those who hate America. Actually Palin would be number one: she pals around with people who believe in witches - opening up the possibility of the kind of clash on religious grounds of which the terrorists dream. True, Obama seems keen to bomb the caves on the Pakistan Afghan border but does anyone really believe he'd do it...?