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Quintessential political steel

Justin Webb | 15:26 UK time, Wednesday, 27 August 2008

The dust has settled and the Hillary speech has been declared a success, though this piece in the Washington Post contains as well an interesting take on one of the layers of this multi-layer Shakespeare-on-steroids drama - the relationship between Bill (pouting "I love you" in the audience) and her.

As for the political effect of the speech, this piece suggests that it might have some - and might have brought some of her fans back on to the reservation.

Surely it did - though it also reminded everyone of her stature which - 2012 anyone? - was no bad thing for her.

I remember saying in the early primaries that she was failing because she had no ready trade mark, no brand. How far she has come in those months from no-brand to tough-brand.

She is the quintessential steely politician now - nothing that has happened to her since New Hampshire (including losing!) has done her anything but good.

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  • 1. At 3:53pm on 27 Aug 2008, quiteplain wrote:

    "She is the quintessential steely politician now - nothing that has happened to her since New Hampshire (including losing!) has done her anything but good."

    I completely disagree. Losing is obviously damaging, it decreases her chances of ever getting back to the Whitehouse.

    Especially if Obama beats McCain, because by 2016 Warner will be perfectly positioned to be the democratic nominee, unless he screws up majorly (in a John Edwards sort of way) between now and then, he's heavy favourite to win his senate race, and he will bring that rare mix of executive experience and national standing from his times as governor and senator respectively.

    If she had staged a late comeback after Pennsylvania, she would have still been the "steel maiden" as well as the democratic nominee. As it is, this may well have been her high water mark. Even 4 years is a long time in politics, and she will never again enjoy "inevitability".

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  • 2. At 3:54pm on 27 Aug 2008, MagicKirin wrote:

    Justin:

    There have been mixed reports on her speech ( as there will be on everyones)

    One Hillary supporter (a man) said he would still not vote for Obama. His beef is not with Obama but the DNC who he feels hand picked Obama.

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  • 3. At 3:58pm on 27 Aug 2008, chancythegardener wrote:

    Whatever her talents, Hillary Clinton and her noisy followers never saw the terrible irony that her greatest drawback was her husband.

    This blog has discussed the importance of political spouses and the message that they bring to the ticket. Hillary's spouse, for all his achievements, was caught out in The White House and then lied in public.

    There has been a lot of talk about a backlash against females - but it wasn't that.

    It was a backlash against a male and the way he behaved. Did she REALLY think that she could usher him back into the White House and that the public would be able to trust him as they had trusted him in 1992 ?

    It defies all logic to cover this up in a fog of anti-feminism.

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  • 4. At 4:02pm on 27 Aug 2008, MinnesotaGuy wrote:

    Her speech was much more direct and forceful than I thought it would be. It was a welcome change from the first night of the convention which was way too soft to be effective. There is no way anyone could have heard her speech last night and come away with the impression that Hillary doesn't think Obama should be the next president. Whether or not that will have the intended effect on her hard-core supporters remains to be seen. But it was clear to me that she did her part.

    I can't wait to see Biden and Bill Clinton's speech. I think the Democrats have played this convention well. They seem to be slowly ramping up the pressure and attacks on the Republican Party throughout the convention. It's a measured approach that I think will be very effective. Biden can be a fiery speaker, and everyone knows the kind of performance Bill can put on when he wants. If Senator Clinton's speech is any indication, President Clinton's speech may well bring down the house if he is as committed to an Obama presidency as his wife seemed to be.

    Anyway you look at it, it's gonna be great political theater.

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  • 5. At 4:05pm on 27 Aug 2008, TimothyR444 wrote:

    She did a fine job. In fact, it was too successful.

    How can Obama match the genuine enthusiasm of her supporters and the genuine conviction and authority she displayed?

    There was very little substanc in her speech, but the main point was to convey authority and dignity - and she did.

    It is interesting that she did not address any of her "concerns" regarding Obama's readiness to lead.

    The message was clear: the Dems made the wrong choice.

    And Obama certainly made the wrong choice for VP.

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  • 6. At 4:08pm on 27 Aug 2008, Joffan wrote:

    2012 - I hope not - that should be Obama running for reelection.

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  • 7. At 4:17pm on 27 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    She is the quintessential politician, but that's what we expect of someone who makes it as far as she has.

    I don't think there is anything wrong with her looking ahead to 2012 as she didn't sabotage Obama's efforts last night. I think her speech did it's job, and it's now up to Obama to convince the electorate that he's the man for the job, and the electorate to think hard about what is really important to them.

    I think the PUMAs have been grossly over-estimated by the media as a divisive tool against the Democrats to keep the drama going. It's pathetic and counterproductive.

    I also think that whatever goes on between Bill and Hillary is their business. I used to think it was a marriage of convenience, then I saw footage of them interacting with each other in a spontaneous situation and I realized that there is love there, even if it doesn't fit my ideas of a relationship. He's a notorious womanizer and she's deemed "frigid", but they have a relationship that works for them so I'm not going to belittle his mouthing "I love you" to her or pretend that it wasn't genuine.

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  • 8. At 4:19pm on 27 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    "One Hillary supporter (a man) said he would still not vote for Obama. His beef is not with Obama but the DNC who he feels hand picked Obama."

    I've heard a few people say that, but I hope they realize that McCain isn't going to do them any favors. If this were the McCain from 2000, I'd be much less skeptical because he seemed to have retained himself. This new McCain has sold his ideas for evangelical votes, and that is never a good thing.

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  • 9. At 4:28pm on 27 Aug 2008, MagicKirin wrote:

    ref #8

    It is a feeling that the DNC has sold it self to George Soros and other extreme groups.

    Just ask (and all the Marbles we don't need to hear you call him a weasal) Joe Lieberman

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  • 10. At 4:29pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    "Political Theater" describes this convention perfectly.

    The Dems have to go a long way in 4 months.
    They have to unify their delegates, then Hillary's
    supporters, and, by gosh, get the American
    people on board.

    On the one hand, this is a lot of ground to cover.
    On the other, Bush and Cheney are speaking
    at the twin cities, so they may not have that far
    to go.

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  • 11. At 4:42pm on 27 Aug 2008, Simon21 wrote:

    "She is the quintessential steely politician now - nothing that has happened to her since New Hampshire (including losing!) has done her anything but good. "

    What a funny remark, do you think she would agree?

    She lost to a better campaigner and more astute politicain. She has probably come to realise this.

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  • 12. At 4:43pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    A gracious speech, I thought. She did what she should have done, and did it well. However, it is not within her power to make her supporters turn out for Obama in November. We'll see.

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  • 13. At 4:44pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    gunsandrel (#10), it's only a little over two months to the election, not four.

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  • 14. At 4:55pm on 27 Aug 2008, DavidGinsberg wrote:

    Hi Justin, I was more concerned about Hilary's day glo orange trouser suit. Fluorescent colours are meant to be in but I wonder if she will come to regret that outfit when they replay the footage in years to come.

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  • 15. At 5:01pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #13, Gary, sorry, I was counting for both parties...

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  • 16. At 5:06pm on 27 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    Gary,

    No, it's not within her power to control her supporters' votes, but I'm willing to bet that if Obama loses, his supporters will blame her. The same way that 8 years later, people still blame Ralph Nader for Gore losing the election, overlooking the fact that 200,000 registered Democrats voted for Bush in Florida. *sigh*

    Once the media glomp onto a narrative that's palatable to the American people, it will never go away.

    Frankly, I'm tired of this election. It's been discussed daily since the day after the mid-term elections in November 2006. I'm voting, I promise I am, and I have already decided which candidate I will back. Please, stop shoving this never-ending dog-and-pony show down my throat.

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  • 17. At 5:10pm on 27 Aug 2008, willsmac wrote:

    "One Hillary supporter (a man) said he would still not vote for Obama. His beef is not with Obama but the DNC who he feels hand picked Obama."

    This seems an odd thing to think - if Hillary had just scraped home, or even had lost the primaries but been put in by the super-delegates what would he have thought?

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  • 18. At 5:13pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Justin,

    "As for the political effect of the speech, this piece suggests that it might have some - and might have brought some of her fans back on to the reservation."
    Not many, if you check out the comments at the bottom of the piece you've linked

    Still a lot of PUMAs out there ;-(

    Salaam, etc.
    ed

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  • 19. At 5:14pm on 27 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #16 " LoquaciousIv: "Please, stop shoving this never-ending dog-and-pony show down my throat." Simple solution - don't read this blog or contribute to it again - and turn off the TV!

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  • 20. At 5:22pm on 27 Aug 2008, jacksforge wrote:

    liebermans a weasel

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  • 21. At 5:23pm on 27 Aug 2008, Candace9839 wrote:

    Steely determination based on her 'experience' as First Lady. Pull the other one. Determination to have her own selfish ambitions and more importantly speaking fee and book generated wealth realised at any cost. Guiliani is now on about her not taking back what she said about Obama not being ready to lead. As if she ever was. The speech was the least she could do after a rock fight that damaged the party and gave the Republicans endless political fodder. Let's hope Bill C on his five second delay does not get his panties in a twist and cause any more damage than they have already. The Democratic party is not about her. There are plenty of strong, savvy women in the ranks and having chosen the best candidate for President, let's hope for 2016 if all goes well despite the Clintons; certainly not because of them.

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  • 22. At 5:25pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    2. MagicK

    Even if the DNC did 'handpick' Obama (and I doubt that, despite the obvious rapport and strategic agreement about methods and ends between Obama and Dean), Obama still had to put Clinton to the sword, and he did so by out-thinking and out-organising her. Obama is a street politician, for all his rhetoric; he works precinct by precinct and that, at the end of the day, is what will defeat McCain: he has upped registration and put staff into places that the Dems had left vacant for decades.

    Of course Hillary had one eye on 2012, but she would have to fight Gore, Warner, and probably Corzine and Sebelius if that happens; and by 2016 she'll be 68: younger than McCain for sure, but .... Her best option is as Leader of the Senate after Reid, and for that she needs the successful passage of the Kennedy-Clinton Health Act.

    I'm sure Bill will turn National Security into economic security and the risk of China holding so much US debt tonight: if he does so, that would be a very good thing: it is about time that issue was raised in this election.

    There is, however, one other big thing happening at the moment and no-one has yet connected it with politics ... having just passed over Haiti, TS-Hurricance Gustav is set to pass between Cuba and Jamaica over open sea, nip the tail end of northern Cuba and then head north-west into the Gulf of Mexico as a Force 3 hurricane at 125mph, and pointed almost directly at New Orleans ... behind it is another serious depression that could equally turn into a hurricane and which is only days behind. Gustav is due to hit the US coast Monday, at the start of the Republican convention ... if it gets any stronger, say 140mph, and does make a direct hit on New Orleans, it won't matter if John McCain gives the greatest speech in US political history ...

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  • 23. At 5:25pm on 27 Aug 2008, jacksforge wrote:

    18 did you read the one where a guy says "Obama is more ego than substance"

    and he is a hillary supporter.hehehehe.

    Justin are you still planning on getting a job on her 2012 campaign staff.

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  • 24. At 5:28pm on 27 Aug 2008, jacksforge wrote:

    the orange suit is to signify that she is a prisoner?

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  • 25. At 5:29pm on 27 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    DC--

    I don't have a tv, so there is nothing to turn off. I read this blog because it's interesting to see other points of view.

    We should not have a 2 year long election--people do get tired of these things. I'm not the only one.

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  • 26. At 5:36pm on 27 Aug 2008, Sylbia wrote:

    It would be ignorant not to realize on Hillary's part that an Obama Presidency and his nomination infact will forge the path for her a woman to be President in 2012. After a black gets through indeed a woman will be next. They are more tied at the hip than they think. His success will make inroads for her success in 2012 by far more than his defeat. She needs only to wait patiently in the wing and help him on the stage for it will be her turn next.

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  • 27. At 5:38pm on 27 Aug 2008, MagicKirin wrote:

    ref #22

    mark it's not me saying it is a Hillary supporter.

    I do think the Caucus system should be abolished but those are the rules.

    Non Partsian point, I am an independent. The winner take all primary makes a lot more sense

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  • 28. At 5:48pm on 27 Aug 2008, MikeIL wrote:

    Hillary Clinton is a pure political animal.

    She will do anything and say anything to further her own political career.

    Look for Bill Clinton to, after this convention, when there is maybe just one camera on him in front of a tiny group -- to give little hints to the Hillary faithful that a McCain victory would serve Hillary better than an Obama presidency. Bill owes Hillary -- big time.

    Had she not married Bill Clinton, whomever she would have married would have become president, and Bill Clinton might well have remained a scandal-ridden governor of a tiny southern state with one of the worst ecnomies and worst school systems in the country.

    Hillary did exactly what she had to do to stay in the good graces of the Democratic party. Nothing less and certainly nothing more.

    No mention of Obama's ability to be a capable Commader-in-Chief. No metion of his personal attributes or how she had come to know the man better and change her opinion of him from their many debates.

    Hillary even called John mcCain a friend -- more than what she said about Obama personally.

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  • 29. At 5:48pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    LoquaciousIvy (#16), who's shoving? People choose to participate in this forum (or not). As for the dog-and-pony convention show on the tv, just turn it off.

    Fixing blame is the prerogative of a free citizen, even if it is not helpful or even accurate. I would give Nader some of the responsibility for Gore's loss, but not much. I'm more tired of Nader than I am of this seemingly interminable election process. Gore did not carry his own state, so I think there is no great injustice in his having lost even though he won the popular vote. A good candidate should be a lock in his home state.

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  • 30. At 5:49pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #24, jacksforge, this whole campaign is reminiscent
    of that 60's TV show "The Prisoner", except that
    nowadays it's a reality show, Hillary is #6, Obama
    is #2, and we don't know who #1 is.

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  • 31. At 5:50pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Quintessential Political Putty

    The Double-talk Express
    and as for consistent inconsistency, he's hard to beat.
    John McCain Vs John McCain

    If this is what America elects, with its eyes wide open, then that's what America deserves, but what did the rest of us do to deserve it? ;-((

    Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Dorood/Peace
    ed

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  • 32. At 5:52pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    willsmac (#17), when one looks at the politics of a single individual, it's ideosynchratic, so often doesn't seem to make sense.

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  • 33. At 5:58pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    G&R,

    Actually, almost all politicians are #2

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 34. At 5:58pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    Ed (#18), I wouldn't conclude "not many" on the basis of the Christian Science Monitor piece. The Clinton supporters at the convention are the true believers, as are many people who participate in blogs. There is no statistical significance to this report.

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  • 35. At 6:00pm on 27 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    #31 Ed--

    I've learned there's no reasoning or rationale for the way some people vote. It is what it is.

    You're right--America gets the President that it deserves. Here's hoping that this year America has raised its standards. :)

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  • 36. At 6:01pm on 27 Aug 2008, SaintDominick wrote:

    Hillary's powerful speech may influence some of her dissaffected supporters, but I doubt it will change the minds of those who object to Obama's electability because of issues that have nothing to do with socio-political ideology, vision, economic and fiscal acumen, or experience.
    Hillary understands that whomever wins in November will most likely be a one-term President since neither candidate will be able to correct the domestic problems we are having and will most likely be blamed for what they inherit from the Bush Administration.
    For Hillary, the speech solidified her position as frontrunner for 2012, a goal that will remain elusive considering the formidable opponents she is likely to face: Mark Warren, Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius and others.
    The focus at this point should be on Obama and McCain, not Hillary. While it is true that the political platforms of both candidates are well documented and available to all, the reality is that many voters don't know how to use a computer (McCain is not the only one) and depend on their traditional loyalties and what the candidates say to formulate an opinion. Sadly, they are easily influenced by political propagandaand if that is the deciding factor McCain will win by a landslide. Historically, the Republican campaign apparatus has been so effective they make the Dems look like boy scouts.

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  • 37. At 6:05pm on 27 Aug 2008, uksimona wrote:

    I heard her speech at about 6am on the today programme on radio 4. Exactly what I expected. 'Keep going'. So I did. By 11 am my gardening backlog of weeks had all been done. I just love her. Icon but alas not president. Yet.

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  • 38. At 6:06pm on 27 Aug 2008, MagicKirin wrote:

    ref 18 and 34

    Right now according to Gallup 30% of Hillary supporters are going to supoort McCain.

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  • 39. At 6:09pm on 27 Aug 2008, SamTyler1969 wrote:

    I've been Tango'd

    What a suit.

    Sam

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  • 40. At 6:12pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gavrielle_LaPoste wrote:

    Hillary is right. It's about policy, not personality. If you favor Democratic policies, vote Democratic. Who cares who's at the top of ticket? As long as you know they aren't going to veto those policy initiatives you want enacted out of hand, it doesn't really matter who signs them into law. I wouldn't care if Obama had the personality of a dead dog -- it's not like I'm going to take him home and keep him!

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  • 41. At 6:15pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:


    Quintessential Political dishonesty

    As evidenced by this :"Dangerously Unprepared" To Be President

    Let the hostilities begin....

    ;-)
    ed


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  • 42. At 6:22pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    The Associated Press (AP) says the ad is misleading
    :

    "ANALYSIS: The ad is misleading because it states that Obama said Iran is "tiny" and "doesn't pose a serious threat" without noting that Obama was comparing the threat Iran poses today to the Soviet Union, the nuclear-armed adversary of the U.S. during the Cold War
    ......
    "Strong countries and strong presidents talk to their adversaries," Obama said at the time. "I mean, think about it. Iran, Cuba, Venezuela _ these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us. And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, 'We're going to wipe you off the planet.'""
    Like I said, McCain, at least, is pure #2

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 43. At 6:22pm on 27 Aug 2008, MinnesotaGuy wrote:

    I am surprised that the democrats haven't really addressed the ban on offshore drilling during the primetime hour. I know the Montana Governor went into it last night, but NBC cut off a good portion of his speech. Considering the Republicans are going to make drilling the key point of their convention, you'd think the Democrats would want to pre-emptively undercut that argument during primetime.

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  • 44. At 6:30pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    This might be an appropriate time to reread Eric Hoffer's The True Believer (1951).

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  • 45. At 6:40pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    I just went out for a bottle of wine ... fair enough MagicK, but the rules were the rules and if Mark Penn had bothered to read them and do anything else other than assume HRC's divine right to nomination he might have been a bit more prepared and a bit more organised: at the end of the day, Penn was Clinton's choice and she has to fall by that decision: that is what knocked her out of the race: choosing a strategist who did not plan for things going awry ....

    Interesting as well that no-one picked up on my other point: a very major hurricane is due to hit the Gulf Coast at the start of the GOP convention next Monday and it is heading pretty close to New Orleans; all it will have to do is slow slightly, strengthen slightly more than they are forecasting over the Gulf of Mexico, and shift about one degree north and it will be 2005 all over again: just look at the CNN map, and behind it is another depression that is just as big (look at MSNBC's Carribean satellite map). If Obama has any sense, he'll be heading south on Monday to campaign ... perhaps visiting Florida (not too close, but close enough to be there in the aftermath ....). That storm is going to wreck news coverage of the Republican convention.

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  • 46. At 6:46pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Some homework for reading before Biden's speech

    "Joe Biden was one of a few people to correctly intuit and loudly decry the basic moral failure of Abu Ghraib. Instead of making it another pissy bullet point for Bush's managerial incompetence, he made it a deeply personal issue of right and wrong. As the father of a soldier, he knew that the horrors of Abu Ghraib now gave the enemy license to practice the same indignity on his son. Held to this fatherly imperative, the Bushies didn't look tough or confident anymore -- they looked like pube-less bullies playing dress-up with dad's clothing.
    ...
    That's the man that you'll see speaking tonight on the convention floor. He's the guy Barack Obama picked for the campaign against the man who never lets you forget how he got tortured, all the while hoping you'll not remember how he punked out when his moment came to say: "No way, no how, no torture." For all the talk that he's the sort of guy who might say the wrong thing, on this regard, Joe Biden is speaking very loud and clear. Tell your friends."
    Jon Stewart was listening

    Looking forward to tonight's (Tommorow morning's for us on GMT) speech.

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 47. At 6:48pm on 27 Aug 2008, MikeIL wrote:

    test

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  • 48. At 6:50pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Mark (45),

    An act of God ()

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 49. At 6:52pm on 27 Aug 2008, proles wrote:

    Such frightful eulogies are beyond grotesque - Hillary like her unscrupulous hubby is the quintessential SLEAZY politician now - and always has been! Billary has a "brand" alright, several in fact: a brand of ruthless self-aggrandizment, a brand of deep-sixing a universal health care plan to serve corporate interests, a brand of back-stabbing political opponents, an AIPAC brand - but most of all a brand of murderous imperialism in devastating Iraq, not once but twice - through the latest illegal invasion and through the genocidal sanctions during her nominal hubby's unlamented spell in the Oval Office. Still, the metaphor is apt, if only Hillary would "fall on her [imperialist] sword" - literally! And Bill and Barack and Biden and Bush and McCain and...

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  • 50. At 6:53pm on 27 Aug 2008, MikeIL wrote:

    Justin:

    Hillary might have "gone back to the reservation" but what about Bill?

    There is an ABC News video on Youtube (that apparently I can not link here) where he talks about candidates "X" and "Y" and how one candidate agrees with you 100% but "can not deliver anything", and how the other candidate disagrees with you on 50% of the issues but "can deliver on the other half."

    "Who do you vote for?" Bill Clinton asks.

    Indeed who do the Clinton supporters vote for?

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  • 51. At 6:54pm on 27 Aug 2008, MinnesotaGuy wrote:

    MarkFromOxford

    I think people picked up on your point. We just don't get it. What does a hurricane have to do with McCain? I know you're referencing Katrina and the administration's terrible response, but if a hurricane wrecks New Orleans again, they won't make that same mistake.

    Furthermore, you're kind of advocating the destruction of a city to secure a political win. No sane person could possibly look at that with joy or zeal.

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  • 52. At 7:01pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    MikeIl,

    Are you having trouble with disappearing posts? If so, it's probably an ampersand (&) symbol. Here's some help

    Basically, if you want to use & you'll have to type & (the semicolon is vital).

    If it's in a URL, simply add amp; to make it legal, but be sure you do this for every &

    Good luck
    ed

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  • 53. At 7:04pm on 27 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Minnesota Guy,

    I don't think Mark was "advocating" an Act of God. He's too smart to imagine he has such influence.

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 54. At 7:09pm on 27 Aug 2008, chancythegardener wrote:



    Mark # 45

    I picked up on your posting - read it with great interest and thought to myself "events, dear boy, events". We all pray that people won't suffer as last time (and presumably proper precautions will be taken this time) but these constant and terrible storms in the Gulf should remind some of the pols that there are enough problems to be addressed at home without the need for them to roam the world looking to start fights.

    Not to mention getting involved in the sort of activity that Ed so rightly refers to in #46.

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  • 55. At 7:16pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    51, MG

    I'm not advocating it with zeal or joy: I've been to New Orleans ... I'm taking a cold hard look at the maps, what they are revealing, and then putting the two timelines together. If I was a political strategist, I'd be thinking quite hard about where to be because, cynically, politicians like to be in the right place at the critical moment. For the Republicans the problem will be that they are committed by virtue of their convention to being in your fair state: it is the wrong place at the wrong time, and they are a very long way away from the Gulf Coast.

    And yes, I'm sure that 'they' and the emergency services will 'do better': if 'they' don't the political consequences would be profound indeed. The problem for the GOP is that the 'human news' will take over from the political, and their moment in the sun will be eclipsed. The keynote speeches will be lost in the endless detail of flood levels, rainfall, and damage. I do hope it is not a real disaster, but with winds at speeds of at least 125mph something is going to happen and it has all the potential makings of one. Do you think it is wrong to look at a map and point out the obvious?

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  • 56. At 7:16pm on 27 Aug 2008, Antwerp1 wrote:

    How many of these PUMAs are true Hillary supporters and how many are Republican activists deliberately trying to stir up friction between Obama/Clinton supporters. Anonymous blog comments are really not to be taken seriously (including this one).

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  • 57. At 7:16pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    53, Ed

    Thanks :)

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  • 58. At 7:23pm on 27 Aug 2008, willsmac wrote:

    #32

    Indeed - and everyone is idiosyncratic I suppose, making one wonder about all the commentators (dare one say bloggers?) who discuss the electorate in blocks (white working class...).

    But then it is not easy to see what else to do!

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  • 59. At 7:23pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    Mike,

    I should also add that it is potentially important because it would change the issues and the political dynamic. If you stand there talking about South Ossetia when people are losing their homes and livelihoods then all the bluster in the world will not get you noticed.

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  • 60. At 7:26pm on 27 Aug 2008, invisibleserendipity wrote:

    MarkfromOxford:

    Great observation re: Hurricaine.

    MSNBC spoke at length about the potential impact on the Republican convention next week. I believe CNN mentioned it as well.

    In any case, as a Republican who will be voting for Obama in November, the sheer ridiculousness of Hillary supporters is aggravating. If I am willing to turn away from my party (the only time in over two decades) and many of my Republican friends are willing to do the same - why can't the dems get their act together? There is too much at stake ...

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  • 61. At 7:27pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    30, Guns.

    Go back to "Did she connect with you?" and read comments 268, 269, 321 and 345. You will learn something very interesting. Remember I said I would get back to you today?

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  • 62. At 7:30pm on 27 Aug 2008, DougTexan wrote:

    Even my wife thinks Hillary was to 'save' us from No-bama. Thought her prison garb and smiling face gave an excellent speech, so good, that alot of her supporters won't vote for him.

    Nothing bad, but I believe she and Bill truely don't believe he'll win, and will vote for McCain, because in 2012 she will be back, and Nobama won't.

    He has more problems than good points, more ghosts and skeletons in his closet. The Clintons will assist in his downfall from behind the scenes giving her an opening in the 2012 election.

    His wife and children are not running for office, so I think he shouldn't put her out there daily. She had an angry disbelieving look on her face last night. During Hillarys speech, Michele (mybelle) looked fairly angry more than once.

    countdown to
    finish line
    next

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  • 63. At 7:30pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    54, Chancey

    Thanks and yes, I agree. One of the reasons the storms are such a risk is global climate change: an issue the US has buried its head in Arabian sands about. As the planet warms, the Gulf of Mexico is increasingly acting as an agent that intensifies storms because the water is so warm: all you need is the wrong storm avoiding as much land as possible, and that is what this one seems to be doing, hence my comments.

    So what another storm does is, apart from anything else, shift climate change and oil dependency right to the top of the agenda ....

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  • 64. At 7:33pm on 27 Aug 2008, babawaya wrote:

    John McCain is an honorable man but he is stooping too low with these ads. I want the best for this country; after paying attention to him for a while, honestly, I'm afraid I don’t think he is the best we can come up with. Guys let's put America first and forget the issues that often divide us and do more harm to this country than help us. Anyone has travelled to Europe lately? Guys we are lagging behind in almost every aspect of development. America used to lead the way but today we are trailing because in Washington division and too much lobbying. What about China? They have become our ‘pay day loan center’. Instead of paying back the loan we get tax cuts. Who will pay all this debt and with what money?
    A good example is the cars we drive and reliance in petroleum. Know why McCain was unpopular in 2004 among the RNC bigs (in Washington); he was fighting for you and me. I wish I could say the same of him today. I'm a Christian and very devoted. But our conservative party has taken advantage of us. They know we always vote our conscience and so they do whatever they want every time we reelect them. If countries like Brazil, Greenland, Sweden, Holland, Finland etc. can establish a great energy program, why not America? The problem with us in America, majority of us are not well informed and the government does a great job in keeping us that way. It is to their benefit for us to stay that way so that we don't pressure them.
    Most conservative voters are spiritual conservatives but we vote for leaders (most of them) who care more about fiscal conservatism than spiritual. When you vote for tax cuts think twice. The trade off is not worth it. 6 yrs ago a regular public university was about $1700 a semester. Today it is about $5000. So, we get tax cuts and majority of Americans struggle to go to college. That is why a lot of college students are still in community colleges; some going on to their 4th year. We pay tax, the government builds highways and they demand we pay toll!!! It just does not add up.
    Only Americans can change this trend. We get all crazy with these politicians and yet we don't know what they stand for. I'm pro choice and I'm against gay marriage but America is bigger than those two issues. Most of us from the south are especially the victims of those two values. Right now as we talk my electricity bill is $649; used to be at most $250. Why don't we have solar panels enforced on every house especially in the south where we get sunshine for a good part of the year? My electricity company is getting huge profits and when I call customer service I speak with a representative from somewhere in Asia; and they still get a check back from the government. Fellow Americans, what is wrong with this picture.
    Let's be open and vote like wise people. George Bush is the most conservative president we have ever had. I respect him as a person for he stands for everything as a Christian I stand for. As a president he shoots with the same gun, the 'republican machine' which in my view has stripped America its greatness both economically and internationally. Tough talk against Russia is smart but deep inside our realistic being we know we cannot even dare try go to war against them. It is not even fathomable. Our resources are so depleted to even think about another war is absurd. Our next president must not be trigger happy. We need time to rebuild our military from bottom up. We need better incentives to encourage Americans to serve in the military. The next president must work with Europe and form better and mutual and dependable alliance. Russia needs Europe and so is America. In fight against terrorism we cannot be lone rangers any more.

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  • 65. At 7:40pm on 27 Aug 2008, AnonymousCalifornian wrote:

    LocquaciousIvy:

    Seeing that several people have already called you on #16, here's one for #8:

    How did McCain 'sell his ideas' (ideals?) for evangelical votes? And enough with all the evil, evvil, evill, eeeeeevil evangelical nonsense which is so frequently expressed on this blog by so many. Really, have any of you anti-evangelicals ever even met a single evangelical--much less many of them--so that you can reasonably paint them all with a broad brush, instead of just characterizing a group comprising roughly a quarter of the electorate with inaccurate stereotypes/beliefs on your part and painting them all with a broad brush anyway?

    McCain has been pro-life since before 2000. His attitude on homosexual marriage has also not been radically altered. Both he and Obama oppose homosexual marriage, but aren't particularly opposed to civil unions, which in many states are practically identical to marriages in terms of the legal rights they confer. McCain still would have homosexual marriage's legality or illegality decided on the state level rather than nationwide.

    And just to point out another seemingly common misconception about evangelicals: for many, if not most, evangelicals, abortion and homosexual marriage are not treated equally. One is considered murder, the other improper living (as is being a druggy or alcoholic, or unfaithful spouse). Homosexuals aren't killing other people, and thus homosexual marriage is not as big an issue. Evangelicals can live with homosexuals in the world. Evangelicals could conceivably vote for a pro-homosexual marriage, but pro-life, candidate while they would not vote for a pro-abortionist.

    One more thing (if this post gets through the moderation). In response to one of D. Vila's posts, try putting yourself into an evangelical's shoes. An evangelical who considers human life* to be defined not by intelligence or cell count, but by either having or not having a soul, and believing that a human being receives a soul at the point of conception. Put in that perspective, millions of human beings, children, would be murdered each year, putting the Holocaust of the second World War to shame. Vila's statement, hinting that evangelicals don't pay attention to the economy, again demonstrates the general ignorance of quite a few on this board, and their willingness to portray evangelicals as people unable to see the 'big issues' of the day. If given the choice between a pro-life candidate with bad economic policies and a pro-life candidate with good economic policies, of course evangelicals would vote for the good economic policy candidate. Ending mass murder on the scale of millions per year (in their opinion) just happens to trump economic reform (go figure). Vila's post, from an evangelical perspective, is tantamount to declaring that Nazi Germany and the world should have kept Hitler in power, because even if he did murder some 6 million Jews, Roma, and others, at least he brought the Third Reich from the third world status of the Weimar Republic to 'developed' status in a few, short years.

    And neither Obama nor McCain will be able to directly fix the economy, anyway (at least short of an executive order). Much of what needs to be done to fix the economy requires laws which are made and passed by Congress, not the President. Whether the President is Obama or McCain, Senators and Congressmen will be in charge of economic reform.

    Meanwhile, several of the Supreme Court justices are ossifying at a rapid pace, particularly some of the liberal ones. They could even just be clinging on in the hopes that a liberal President will be sworn in soon. In contrast to who makes laws, the President does directly nominate Supreme Court justices. If the ratio of Supreme Court justices swings in support of social conservatives, Roe vs. Wade could be overturned and--potentially--the right to life constitutionally enshrined. Thus, for this election cycle, you can see why evangelicals have even more of a reason to vote a pro-lifer into the Presidency (even if you happen to disagree with them).

    General rule: try to be more informed about people whom you unfairly malign. Many BBC readers know little about evangelicals and don't have much opportunity to meet and converse with them, and many of the posters here are grossly misrepresenting evangelicals as individuals, and what they believe (as varied as that is).

    *As opposed to what D.V.'s post suggested, almost all people recognize that a zygote is alive; what's debated is whether that life constitutes a human being.

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  • 66. At 7:40pm on 27 Aug 2008, WCoastConservative wrote:

    For those who fail to understand why 30% of Hillary supporters (according to Gallup) don't support Barack in spite of the fact that their policies are eerily similar, remember: Americans vote for individuals, not parties or platforms. A lot of people - including millions of Republicans and Independents, and some men too - love Hillary and/or want a women president, period.

    Barack is neither Hillary nor a women (nor did he pick a woman for VP), so they won't support him.

    How difficult is that to understand!?

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  • 67. At 7:50pm on 27 Aug 2008, themissinglink wrote:

    Forgot Clinton's speech, the speech of the night belonged to Governor Brian Schweitzer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETRMThbrvJ0
    He roused the delegates with a speech on energy independence, whilst coming across as both genuine and very likable that can't be easy.

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  • 68. At 7:54pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    60, invisible

    I haven't seen US TV because I'm in England at the moment, but if the political channels are commenting, then it means they are preparing to shift focus if need be ...

    And, yes, there is too much at stake this time round, and it is not just about Iraq or South Ossetia. I'm a Platonist when it comes to politics: I believe every politician should be held to the highest standards of their beliefs and criticised for every failure to live by them. I simply think, like I'm sure you do, that Obama is about the future, whereas McCain and HRC are about the past, and they just cannot and will not let go ...

    I wish, for once, a US politician would tell you all the truth about what Bush has done. It is not just the paranoia that is so obvious in the awful way that they have scarred the Senate and the Supreme Court with roadblocks, temporary walls, and so on; or how some of the most beautiful architecture in the world now has to play second fiddle to an obsessive Maoist 'never-ending war'.

    Bush has sold you to China for a 'war on terror' that he could not finance and that they have because they now have more leverage over everything you do. The US dollar has declined by 40%+ since 2000 against free floating currencies: price your homes and salaries in those currencies and you are poorer now than then.

    I could go on ...

    Denis healey may have been a very poor British Chancellor but he did once offer one important piece of political advice: 'when in a hole, stop digging'.

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  • 69. At 8:00pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    66, WCoast.

    It is not at all difficult to understand. It's sexism. It's also stupid. To vote for someone just because of color or sex implies that ability is secondary.

    Other people can nurse their causes. I will vote for the candidate I think is best.

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  • 70. At 8:04pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    16, Loquacious.

    Everyone is tired of this election. Don't get upset. Hibernate.

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  • 71. At 8:04pm on 27 Aug 2008, chancythegardener wrote:

    #66

    I thought we had reached the post-feminist age. Such intransigence leads to hubris.

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  • 72. At 8:08pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    62, Doug.

    Last night was the kiss-off for her. There won't be a 2012. She will be old news; the public likes new faces.

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  • 73. At 8:13pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    60, Invisible.

    The democrats would like to get their act together, but they can't get rid of the Clintons. These viciously ambitious people are not above blackmail.

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  • 74. At 8:18pm on 27 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    #65, I don't have to put myself into an evangelical's shoes--I was raised one. I've seen first hand the bigotry, close-mindedness, and willfull ignorance of some of these people. I've seen them talk about tolerance on one hand while spewing venom about "sinners" on the other. I've seen them preach about abstinence while committing adultery and letting their children have abortions. I've seen good evangelicals too, who preach the word of God and live accordingly, but in my experience (and that's all anyone can discuss), they are few and far in-between.

    I have a question for you--why do you care what another person does with their body? If abortion is murder, as you say, then isn't that a sin that has to be reckoned between that person and God? What does that have to do with your personal relationship with God and your life? How does it affect you? I've never understood why other people's business is important. The same is true for gay marriage. If gays and lesbians are allowed the right of marriage (for surely, what else can it be but the right of legal recognition and protection of a partnership), how does that affect heterosexual couples?

    I'm not uninformed. I'm just no longer initiated. And yes, I know about zygotes, or I would have been a poor molecular biologist.

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  • 75. At 8:19pm on 27 Aug 2008, albarudi1978 wrote:

    I knew that justin would commend Senator Clinton's speech, while dissing and sowing seeds of doubt regarding Michelle Obama's heart felt speech. No matter how steely Senator Clinton is, and no matter how connected she is to the working class and her vindictive sisterhood of the traveling pants, she will never be President, let alone a nominee of the democratic party without African American support and she knows that. It is time that it is made clear to her PUMAS that she lost fair and square, and if they think they are mad, wait until Barack loses. If they think that Black folk will be readily available to drive her to the Presidency like Miss Daisy, they have got something coming for them.
    And please for all those who think the media is biased toward Obama, here from Jill Zuckman, Mark Halperin, Dana Milbank, Lynn Sweet, Joe Scarbrough, John Decker, Lou Dobbs, Wolf Blitzer, ... and on and on and of course, Justin Webb

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  • 76. At 8:19pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    chancy (#71), we are in a "post-feminist age," but Hillary Clinton and her contemporaries (Geraldine Ferraro, e.g.) are from the feminist era.

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  • 77. At 8:23pm on 27 Aug 2008, chancythegardener wrote:

    MarkatOxford - re the storm

    You ought to check out Andrew Sullivan over at The Atlantic.com. Don't think that the moderators of this site would like it !

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  • 78. At 8:26pm on 27 Aug 2008, invisibleserendipity wrote:

    #68 MarkfromOxford

    I couldn't agree with you more. We are on the same page.

    Although I am American, I spend (and have done for quite a long time now) considerable amounts of time in the UK and understand the mis-information or lack of information that reaches US soil. At times, it feels as if two entirely different accounts on the same issue are being published and put out there for consumption. Which is correct and which is incorrect? I do not know. But, I do know that we cannot continue at current rate and pace.

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  • 79. At 8:27pm on 27 Aug 2008, SaintDominick wrote:

    Ref 65

    Actually, Anonymous, I only support abortion when the life of the mother is at risk, and while I oppose gay marriage, I accept civil unions because of the legal and economic benefits they confer and because I accept the reality that homosexuality is not a sin. The exception I make on abortion is based on the fact that, to me, the life of my wife is much more precious than the survival of a fetus.
    Unlike some evangelicals, I oppose the death penalty for the same reason I object to abortion, and because I do not believe the State has the moral right to kill. Being pro-life, in my opinion, means much more than opposing abortion.
    My posts on these issues simply highlight the fact that, for many voters, these are the defining issues that influence their decision regarding who they vote for; and that they often take precedence over economic, fiscal, and foreign policy concerns.

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  • 80. At 8:37pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #61, Ms. Marbles, I can't post a link directly, but
    if you go to youtube, and type in "Conquest of the
    Planet of the Apes," I believe that you'll be presented
    with a plausible theory.

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  • 81. At 8:37pm on 27 Aug 2008, MagicKirin wrote:

    This comment has been referred to the moderators. Explain.

  • 82. At 8:40pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #22, MarkFromOxford, we should send Bush
    and Cheney down there in a dinghy with some
    "heck of a job" brownies as food...

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  • 83. At 8:40pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    WCC (#66), I think it's true that many Americans are more attracted to the individual than the party, as evidenced by the increasing number of voters who call themselves independents. This applies to both parties, however. Reagan had a large following because people liked him. Bush (senior) less so, hence he was not reelected. Bush (junior) I don't understand, because he seems to me to be less likable than his father, yet was reelected. Perhaps it was because of people like me who just didn't like Kerry, so sat out the election. Democrats can blame me if they like, but my state voted for Kerry, so I didn't affect the result.

    One question this year is the degree to which this factor applies to McCain. A lot of Republicans don't like him. Enough to matter?

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  • 84. At 8:42pm on 27 Aug 2008, invisibleserendipity wrote:

    #73 Allmy

    Game. Set. Match. Got it.

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  • 85. At 8:43pm on 27 Aug 2008, jacksforge wrote:

    65 ok thats your view and fine, but are you also against the death penalty?

    should this issue be as important as the abortion issue.

    they are alive and God does say do not kill.

    it is the choice of the evangelicals if they wish to gain the moral high ground with the right to life question.

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  • 86. At 8:47pm on 27 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #65. AnonymousCalifornian - It's not just "evangelicals" who subscribe to the notion that life and soul begins at conception or that same-sex marriage is abhorrent, it the (Roman) Catholic Church as well. They go so far as to deny Communion to anyone who even supports abortion as policy (e.g., Kerry) and of course, do not consider that birth control should be used, except for the so-called "rhythm" method.

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  • 87. At 8:49pm on 27 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    #65

    Yes, there is one person here who conversed with evangelicals for years.
    ____________________________

    Most single cells of all types are alive.

    Some religious people wear masks and sweep ahead of them, so as to kill as little life as possible.

    Anyone who takes anti-biotics is willfully taking millions of lives.

    On the living human scale, Hiroshima and born-again Bush's "shock and awe" took hundreds of thousands of lives.

    Every act of contraception is depriving many cells of the chance of living a richer life.

    It is doubtful that an evangelical can distinguish between fact and the assertions of a particular religious philosophy.

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  • 88. At 8:49pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    Oh, and Marbles, I don't understand why you would
    be so prejudiced against weasels
    as to compare them to politicians.

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  • 89. At 8:51pm on 27 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #72. allmymarbles: In this case, wishing will not make it so! I think you're going see a LOT more of Hillary during the next four years. If she stays in the Senate, and (as will happen) Ted Kennedy dies, if nothing else she will become a power to reckon with.

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  • 90. At 8:55pm on 27 Aug 2008, robzaba wrote:

    Is H's speech, welcomed by many, not just another 'fall-back to the future' given there was nowhere else for her to go, except to save grace?

    It was indeed a brave and strong speech, (she really appeared to believe her own warm words this time), but for me, more reasons via policy (ie Obama's) would have given it more gravitas.

    Bill is on 5 seconds delay. Hope there won't be any costume malfunction...

    Waiting for:

    a) real detail re: foreign policy.
    b) how to get out of the economic chaos that has always followed GWBush
    c) some hints that the R's know where they stand in the world..., and what the world expects of them...

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  • 91. At 8:56pm on 27 Aug 2008, KSUprof wrote:

    It's so deja: 1968, we were fairly well furious over the Dems, heart-broken by the murder of RFK, and ready to go with Gene. We ended up with Hubert and abandoned voting alltogether. We were saddled, by not voting for the better candidate, with Tricky Dicky for six years and thousands of more American soldiers dying to depend against the lie called the "Domino Theory" (hey, NeoCons: why hasn't Thailand fallen to the Communists? Why isn't Australia a part of Red China?).

    I very much hope that Clinton supporters who are angry, and feel betrayed and ignored, won't pull off another botched election. We can't afford anymore of the sell-out, no-tax-spend-lots, bridge to nowhere neo-cons running things. Enough is enough!

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  • 92. At 8:57pm on 27 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    #79

    The indoctrinated mind comes to accept belief as reality.

    One thorougly and deliberately inculcated with a sense of personal guilt has a wound-up psychological spring that must be directed at an external target.

    Gays and welfare mothers are customary and helpless targets.

    Fundamentalist teaching concerning the status of women also comes into play. The female, as servant, must serve a reproductive function. One can sublimate guilt over sex in this fashion.

    Would a woman be allowed choice? Perish the thought!

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  • 93. At 9:03pm on 27 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    #74

    Speaks from experience.

    The question about "why be concerned with the morality of others?" may be answered by the pressing need to externalize the inculcated guilt.

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  • 94. At 9:04pm on 27 Aug 2008, SamTyler1969 wrote:

    All,

    I suspect that Hillary is still thinking of a future run, if not for herself then for Chelsea who seems to be rather prominent in the Clinton events these days.

    Apart from the suit, which was a little distracting, it was a thoroughly professional delivery and opens up some nice counter ads for the Obama campaign ('Hilary is right' and just change the end to 'No McCain, No Way, No How' and you've got a cracker). I think we also forget she isn't that old. By the end of an Obama second term she would still be young enough to run. Biden probably wouldn't, he'd be as old as McCain is now and the man has way too much common sense. Women also don't fall apart the way guys do post 70 so she'll probably be in fine spirits to run for at least one term. If this year does fall apart she could of course run in 2012.

    But I honestly don't think she wants Obama to lose. In fact I doubt anyone who leans left or vaguely left wants to see McCain in power.

    All the 'disunity' and PUMA stuff is really hilarious. The Republicans held a happy hour for 'Clinton supporters who will vote for McCain' in down town Denver yesterday. 100 people showed up. I reckon I could get more folks in asking them to sign a petition for rebuilding Soddom and Gomorrah with free booze and snacky cakes. Heck, I like Hillary and I would have gone just to make John-boy buy me a beer.

    Cheers,

    Sam

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  • 95. At 9:05pm on 27 Aug 2008, invisibleserendipity wrote:

    #81

    Why do you think I watch? Only, Olberman would be toast as Matthews never shuts up long enough for anyone to make their point!

    I believe in fair and balanced news - that is why I combine FOX and MSNBC ...
    (that is a joke by the way)

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  • 96. At 9:17pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    80, guns.

    Why is it that the moderators that work during the day as so good-tempered and the ones who work in the middle-of-the-night so peevish?

    By the way, did you follow my suggestion?

    Now I will go to YouTube.

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  • 97. At 9:26pm on 27 Aug 2008, brigitte_kc wrote:

    Hi there ....... I am new to joining in a discussion on the bbc site, although I have enjoyed reading your comments and exchanges for a while now.

    I have a question (as a non-American) which I'd be grateful for advice on ...... I know that many people here as well as political commentators predict that Hillary will be running for President in 2012. However, I understand that her seat in the Senate will be coming up for grabs then too .... my question is if New Yorkers fail to elect her to the Senate and she loses her seat, can she still run for President? I have heard comments in the media from New Yorkers who feel she hasn't represented them well or achieved anything for them so far, and doubt she will retain her seat ... would this exclude her from the Presidential race?

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  • 98. At 9:28pm on 27 Aug 2008, MarkfromOxford wrote:

    96. allmy

    Maybe the ones who work during the day are English, and the those who work at night are not? Just a thought, probably wrong ;)

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  • 99. At 9:37pm on 27 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    brigitte_kc (#97),

    Losing her seat would not prevent her from running for President. You don't have to be a sitting Senator to run for President. She wouldn't lose the seat until the November election, when she ostensibly would be in the running for President. Technically, during the 2012 election she'd still be a Senator.

    If she chose to run for President, however, she most likely would not run for re-election to the Senate. Running dual campaigns would be seen as accepting failure (see Lieberman 2000) of the Presidential race. So, if she ran for President and lost, she would have neither the Presidency nor her Senate seat. Hope this helps!

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  • 100. At 9:41pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #96, marbles, yes I did. What we don't fully appreciate yet
    is that these simian experiments will result in
    our planet being ruled by another species soon.

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  • 101. At 9:43pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    #97, brigette_kc, to answer your question, anybody
    can run for president, they do not need to hold office.

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  • 102. At 9:46pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    bridgitte_kc (#97), I would not predict this early that Clinton would run again in 2012. That would only happen if McCain is elected, because if Obama wins, the incumbent almost always is renominated. Suppose McCain wins. If her Senate seat is up, that complicates matters. because she cannot run for both at once, as a practical matter, even if possible legally. I expect she would make that decision in early 2011, depending on how she feels then and who the competition is likely to be.

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  • 103. At 9:52pm on 27 Aug 2008, SamTyler1969 wrote:

    Hi Brigitte,

    Yes, she can run. In fact anyone can run, you don't have to be elected. Indeed, some senators have run both for the senate and the presidency at the same time.

    That bsaid it is regarded as deeply treacherous to run against a sitting president. In fact to do so has often resulted in the other side winning and there is no way that she would do that if Obama wins. It would be political suicide.

    Electoral Sam

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  • 104. At 10:04pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    I don't think that we've seen the last of Hillary... [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator] must be going on behind the scenes.

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  • 105. At 10:17pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    100, guns.

    I watched the "Conquest of the Planet of the Apes," and I saw staphy. He was the one ranting.

    Of the four comments I noted, two were not printed and two were. The two not printed were middle-of-the-nighters. The content of the daytimers was about the same.

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  • 106. At 10:19pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    The mods wouldn't let it through, but if you
    go to youtube, and type in "in like flint", you'll
    get to a scene where Hillary explains how she
    is going to take over.

    (I especially like the part about the hairdryers)

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  • 107. At 10:19pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    98, David.

    She is not that senior. Longevity plays a big part in the peckingorder.

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  • 108. At 10:21pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    88, guns.

    You're right. Weasels make good pets. Politicians bite.

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  • 109. At 10:26pm on 27 Aug 2008, gunsandreligion wrote:

    Oh, and before anybody jumps on me for posting
    the "In Like Flint" reference, I just thought it was
    funny. I don't have any problems with a female
    president.

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  • 110. At 10:47pm on 27 Aug 2008, RFK2008 wrote:

    At last Justin, you have got it right.

    I totally disagreed with your 'convention all about her piece'. Obama was being clever and making sure her supporters would be appeased. He has plenty of time in the spotlight. He knows it. So why risk arrogance when you can try and get 18 million more votes?

    Hillary is a great politician. I think her speech last night was fantastic. Glowing for Obama, but still solid Clinton. She is who she is. If she had come out with too much 'I love Barack, he is my hero, let's all love him', she would have been accused of being disingenuous. This way she looks like a true supporter, and to be honest, I thought everything she said last night was true, and that she believed it.

    It's a shame the same old partisan, belligerent Hillary haters jump on this blag as a chance to have a go at her. She is gracious in defeat. She is helping Obama as much as she can. So why not give her a break hey? Having a constant go just makes the Democrats look divided, and also, what reason is there left to be having a go? You afre not helping Obama by having a go, you just look like bad winners. Why not have some grace like Barack does?

    If Obama loses, the nomination is Hillary's in 2012. To be honest, I don't think he will lose, and I dfon't think she expects him to.

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  • 111. At 10:53pm on 27 Aug 2008, razzie wrote:

    #22 "upped regstration".

    Yes Obama and the DNC has. In North Carolina the new Democrat registrations in 2008 are getting close to matching the "polling gap". This put the state about even, with 43 days more to go for for voter registration.

    http://turningncblue.com/demog_totals.php

    Add to this the nominal thought that polling of new registrations lags the change in the demographics, and that polling of young voters and African American is lower than its representation (both groups are likely to favor Obama) and NC is very much in play.

    What are the thoughts on an Obama Landslide?

    Hillary's speach last night has done wonders in appeasing some of her voters, and altough I understand several NC Delegates for her will still cast their ballots for her tonight, they will work for Obama for the remaining nine weeks of the campaign.

    I also do not think the DNC handpicked Obama. Going back a few months the super-delegate majority was in HRC's camp rather than Obama's. Multiple Superdelegates took the view they would support the popular vote in their congressional district, including the SG for the district I live in. That is not the DNC deciding.

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  • 112. At 10:53pm on 27 Aug 2008, brigitte_kc wrote:

    Many thanks for all your replies which were very helpful.

    Anyway, early start so better leave it there.

    Bye for now



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  • 113. At 10:55pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    103, Sam.

    You are correct. I guess if the Clintons were truly obsessed they could seriously damage Obama's presidency, but that would not get her into the White House, for the reason you mentioned.

    Even if Obama were to die in office she still would have no chance, because Biden would take his place and, by the rules of succession, Pelosi would be vice president. A strong combo

    No, she is done. Phew!!

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  • 114. At 11:04pm on 27 Aug 2008, babawaya wrote:

    #85,#74

    #79. I agree with you on abortion and also if the child will be born in a condition that he/she has no chance of survival and infact will suffer after birth (this can be a gray area but that is just my stand).

    For all those who called me, # 65 an 'evangelical' I'm not. Those are just my values. I don't judge anyone and I respect people of all orientations. The problem with most of us is disrepecting each other just because we disagree and creates a wedge that does us all harm than good. I do not incriminate. I believe in showing love to all; for love is the more excellent way.

    We can disagree on all these issues and still work together. Ask Senator Casey.

    #86. I actually have a relative stand on death penalty. I believe taking another life does not solve the problem. I could also argue that sending someone to a state prison for life does not solve the problem.

    It is weird the government tells us how to discipline our kids and when they rebel and grow up to be murderers it puts them away.

    While we will always deal with these situations and tough decissions we can limit how often. Inter city programs that would offer better alternatives for the kids and equal support for all schools regardless of their location. Some cities and towns have been marginalized by the government and the end result is high school drop outs consequently high crime rates.

    All these will remain the same if we keep on supporting tax cuts and rebates and funding wars we had no business engaging in. This why I can make a case that John McCain will use the same tactics as G W and leave us worse than we are.

    Can you imagine worse than we are?

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  • 115. At 11:13pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    I think 2016 will be too late for Hillary, but, ironically, that is the first election year that Chelsea will be eligible to the office of President.

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  • 116. At 11:21pm on 27 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    allmymarbles (#113), you are mistaken. The Speaker of the House does not advance to the Vice Presidency when there is a vacancy. There is a precedent: remember Gerald Ford succeeding Spiro Agnew?

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  • 117. At 11:23pm on 27 Aug 2008, Cyril_Croydon wrote:

    Justin, I completely disagree with this: "nothing that has happened to her since New Hampshire (including losing!) has done her anything but good."

    In the latter stages of the primaries, when the contest was all but over, Hillary went on the record to say that Obama was not qualified to be President, amongst other insults. Those comments are now being effectively used in GOP attack ads. If her intention was to help McCain win so she can run again in 2012, it was an effective strategy. She doesn't care about the Democratic Party, she only cares about herself.

    MarkfromOxford, yes the Hurricane may overshadow the Republican convention, but it may not strike New Orleans. Somewhere in Texas is equally possible.

    Dominickvilla, I disagree that the next President will only serve one term. It's too early to say what the circumstances will be like in 2012. It's unlikely Hillary will be able to overturn a sitting President as the nominee next time, unless Obama chooses not to run again. Besides, there are far superior candidates out there than her. People like Kathy Sebelius and Mark Warner.

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  • 118. At 11:34pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    92, Xie.

    Never mind not liking welfare mothers. I don't much like welfare anything. Welfare used to be a stop gap. Now it is a way of life. I resent every penny I pay for these people.

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  • 119. At 11:50pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    26, Sylbia.

    There is all this talk about how important it is to get a woman into the White House. Is that how we choose a president. Hormonally?

    That is not how Thatcher got her job, or Meier, or Ghandi, or the others. It seems to me we lose one ism and find another For some obscure reason we are not allowed to call women sexist. But it is all right to call men sexist.

    Sorry, Sylbia, but people like you bore me silly.

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  • 120. At 11:58pm on 27 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    28, MikeII

    The best analysis I've read so far. Let's see if Bubba runs true to form tonight.

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  • 121. At 00:02am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    35, Loquacious.

    Let's be fair. We really don't have much choice in our president. A very few people are shoved in our faces and we make the best of it.

    As an independent I may have a little more choice than others, because I am not bound by party loyalty. But still, how many choices do I have?

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  • 122. At 00:05am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    26, Sylbia.

    She has no chance whatever in 2012. Read #113.

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  • 123. At 00:13am on 28 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Doug,

    "He has more problems than good points, more ghosts and skeletons in his closet."
    McCain has enough skeletons to fill all the closets in all seven houses.

    Off to check those youtube hints...

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 124. At 00:19am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    116, Gary.

    The act of 1947 lists the order as follows:

    president
    vice president
    speaker of the house
    president pro tempore of the senate

    Albert, who was speaker of the house, refused the position, after Nixon and Agnew were out, because he was a democrat. The position eventually went to the minority leader, Gerald Ford.

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  • 125. At 00:26am on 28 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #122. allmymarbles wrote: "She has no chance whatever in 2012. Read #113."

    Perhaps you should read #116! But #107?? The post you refer to wasn't mine. May be you meant 89, not 98 - but nevertheless, much as you hate the idea, Hillary is not going away, no way, no how. Since you must be in your 70s, I fear she's going to be an irritant for the rest of your life.

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  • 126. At 00:29am on 28 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    The filling of a vacancy in the office of Vice President is controlled by this amendment to the US Constitution, adopted in 1967:

    http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/constitution.amendmentxxv.html

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  • 127. At 00:40am on 28 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    One may notice that several publishing houses have books out now, quoting Obama on policy issues.

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  • 128. At 00:58am on 28 Aug 2008, LoquaciousIvy wrote:

    allmymarbles (#121)--

    You're right about the limited choice, but I always hope for the best. Sometimes, it's all you have. I guess I wish we had more of a choice. Oh well.

    I wish I could register as an Independent, but my dumb state doesn't have it as a party distinction and I want to be able to vote in the primaries because local politics are important.

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  • 129. At 01:08am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    125, David.

    You are right about my age, but I am likely to outlive the Clintons (genes). I still think she is finished. We can talk about it again in 2012 (if old age hasn't done you in by then).

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  • 130. At 01:18am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    128, Loquacious.

    In my state I had to register as a democrat to vote in the primary. I guess if I like a rupublican next time I can register as a republican. I don't know, because I don't often vote in primaries.

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  • 131. At 02:09am on 28 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #129 allmymarbles: "We can talk about it again in 2012 (if old age hasn't done you in by then)." I'm not as old as you and my mother died when she was 91, so perhaps we shall talk about it again! I fear that tonight's display did not endear Mrs C. to you, but so far, the Convention has been all about her. Perhaps next week will be as entertaining - we can concentrate on the Republican VP, whoever that my be.

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  • 132. At 02:40am on 28 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Meanwhile...

    "The McCain campaign is ecstatic over this report from Reuters: "Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's big speech on Thursday night will be delivered from an elaborate columned stage resembling a miniature Greek temple."

    By noon, three emails mocking Obama over the columns had been blasted out by the Republican National Committee, with more sure to come."
    And, then how's this, for hypocrisy?

    Salaam, etc.
    ed


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  • 133. At 02:43am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    131, David.

    I see this all like a play. She goes for acclamation when New York comes up. She does not want to hear the New York vote because it may not be so flatterling. So this is the time she chooses a face saver.

    I find that political, not generous. I also find it very interesting. The trick is not to get to involved. Yes, it is true I don't like her, but that does not prevent me from seeing the maneuvers. I am much colder than you think, at least as it applies to politics.

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  • 134. At 03:49am on 28 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #133. allmymarbles - While I agree it is like a play - or "theatre", I can't agree that she did not want to hear the New York vote; it was the obvious place for her to make an appearance; where else would it have been appropriate for her to step in from the floor? The entire Convention has been like old-fashioned vaudeville, each act with music in between and building highs and lows in the presentation. I once went to a Billy Graham 'Crusade' and it was almost identical, supporting 'acts' until the star, Dr Graham, arrived. His mantra then was "It's all in the book" (meaning the Bible) but even now it has a familiar ring. I've not watched gavel-to-gavel coverage but I've seen enough to recognise the technique - or 'maneuvers' as you say. But it's not just the Clintons, it's the entire show. And as Al Jolson said "You ain't heard nothin' yet!" - Senator Obama's speech, in a vast stadium, will be the spectacular Finale. Personally I find that a bit over-the-top, uncomfortably reminiscent of pre-war demagogues. Bowls of flame and thousands of flags would be all that was needed to further remind us of those rallies; an unfortunate choice of venue - and style - in my opinion.

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  • 135. At 06:09am on 28 Aug 2008, jacksforge wrote:

    86 that is really not quite true for all catholics there DC

    catholics go to communion all the time in other countries.
    Last time you heard of a catholic refused communion in the UK?


    Henry the 8th, no plenty since then but not as a result of abortion work.

    America has a virulant version of all the old world religions.

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  • 136. At 06:40am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    86, David.

    There is an enormous difference between Catholics and evangelicals. Evangelicals have more fervor and are doctrinaire.

    Catholics, particularly Latin Catholics, are more laissez faire. Note that Italy has a minus birth rate and the birth rate in France is very low. They practice birth control, and I don't mean rythm. Also they do not proseletize.

    If you think of the protestantism as originating in northern Europe and Catholicism in southern, it makes more sense. Irish Catholics are more conformist than the Latins.

    It is not possible to equate the two groups. Catholics often do not attend church regularly. Certainly in my city Catholic churches keep closing for lack of attendance. Yet if asked those who do not atten church if they are Catholic, they will say yes.

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  • 137. At 06:40am on 28 Aug 2008, MarcusAureliusII wrote:

    "All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players: they have their exits and their entrances; and one man in his time plays many parts, his acts being seven ages."

    She came on, read her lines, took a bow, and exited. I don't think she convinced anyone. Those of her supporters who were not going to vote for Obama before her speech will not change their minds on account if it IMO. Was this her final curtain call?

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  • 138. At 06:48am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    116, Gary.

    Yes, Ford was the minority leader. Albert was speaker, but a democrat, and he declined. Although there are rules, you seem to be able to maneuver them a little.

    As the rules for succession stand, though, it would be Biden and Pelosi.

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  • 139. At 06:51am on 28 Aug 2008, MikeIL wrote:

    #135 Jacky Boy....

    "Virulent"?

    Since when did it become "virulent" to follow long-establshed religious rules and dogma of one's chosen faith?

    What is virulent is when those rules are ignored or even worse claimed to be something they are not -- Like Sen. Pelosi claiming the Catholic Church had no idea when human life begins and agrees with Obama on abortion.

    Now that is truly Virulent.

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  • 140. At 06:52am on 28 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    This comment has been referred to the moderators. Explain.

  • 141. At 07:01am on 28 Aug 2008, David Cunard wrote:

    #136. allmymarbles - Both evangelicals and Catholics are on the same page when it comes to abortion and all else mentioned in #140, although of course there are many of both groups who will ignore the teachings of their church. There are obviously condom sales to Catholics, and gay 'born-again' Christians, but when it comes to voting, pastors and priests encourage their flock to do so in a particular way. If it were up to me (and it isn't!) I'd remove their tax-exempt status for encouraging congregants to vote one way or another.

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  • 142. At 07:35am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    141, David.

    Catholics tend not to practice what they preach. They are better at rationalizing. And besides you can be forgiven for anything. Evangelicals consider Catholics "leftists" because of their free and easy ways. Although there is strict church dogma, people tend to take it with a grain of salt. Evangelicals are more serious.

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  • 143. At 07:37am on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    141, David.

    The priests can only preach to those who go to church. Catholics are much less observant than evangelicals.

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  • 144. At 08:22am on 28 Aug 2008, ChrisPBacon wrote:

    Hillary may never be preisdent but her role will be to ensure EVERY americian will have access to health care-even prehaps as part of a deal a place in the cabinet?

    This will ensure her place in the history books and thats OK for her(I think)

    What amazes me as a Brit why Bush was reelected?

    Does any americian look at policy?

    If the Dems are clever they should be attacking the GOP about Bush´s "special intrest" politics and his warmongering and of course Mccains house blunder is really an insigt to his person and double standards.

    This election is for Obama to lose not to win!

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  • 145. At 11:50am on 28 Aug 2008, Xie_Ming wrote:

    #142

    Strangely, many evangelicals will not accept that Catholics are "Christians" at all.

    Fifty years ago and more, the political claims and activity of the Church were quite overweening. In the USA, this was particularly evident among the Irish-American priesthood.

    Although they would not share my view, I see many fundamentalist/evangelicals as expressing the same Inquisitorial intolerance that characterized the Roman Catholic Church 700 years ago.

    It is a characteristic of all fundamentalisms to be intolerant in doctrine- "my faith is the only true faith".

    Where the real problems emerge is in the manner the faith is expressed- there are stages that vary from personal belief, to public expression of belief, to civic activities, to voting on religious grounds alone, to denouncing people in the street, to killing physicians.

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  • 146. At 2:12pm on 28 Aug 2008, possumpam wrote:

    I agree with Alberude *775. Have followed the
    Obama v Clinton story for many months but
    have recently become aware that Justin's reportage has become strongly pro Clinton and anti Obama. Wonder what made him eschew impartiality?



    Pam, London

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  • 147. At 3:38pm on 28 Aug 2008, invisibleserendipity wrote:

    #110

    If, by chance, you read my posting (#60) and interpreted it as vitriolic Hillary bashing then you misunderstood my meaning. It had nothing to do with Hillary - more to do with her voters. It was not partisan - rather - very, very concerned.

    What I cannot understand is why Hillary women, (I am a woman and I am not trying to stir things up but, rather really cannot comprehend this phenomenon which leads to my frustration) who have probably the most to lose when at least two if not three justices come off the Court in the next four years (and, let's face it - it is the Supreme Court who holds the most power in the US), are totally unphased. That is one (out of many) reasons why myself and my female Republican friends are crossing the aisle. We know that of which our party is capable of. And, any woman who doubts this should read how very close Roe v. Wade came to being overturned in Casey v. Planned Parenthood in Pennsylvania not that long ago ...

    We have serious issues in this country (and so does the world vis-a-vis US policy) that need to be addressed. My point was that if republicans are willing to stand behind the democratic nominee (and the world has not stopped spinning!) because: 1). We support Obama's message of change; 2). the Republican party frankly is no longer the Republican party. States rights, low taxes, small government, fair trade, thoughtful foreign policy and protection of individual freedoms have been thrown out the window; and 3). We have great concerns over the Court - why aren't the tried and true faithful of the democratic party.

    I would disagree with you on the fact that this is overblown - yesterday, a woman wearing a Hillary shirt was standing behind me in line as I was waiting to get a cup of coffee. I asked her whether she would vote for Obama and she told me she was voting for McCain. Unfortunately, in this tight election - every vote will count. So, whether it is overblown or not, it matters ...

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  • 148. At 4:01pm on 28 Aug 2008, sd1979 wrote:

    The debate about the Speakers place in line has been answered - see useful link to Cornell site - but there is confusion between the event of a vacancy arising for the office of Vice President, and what would happen if President and Vice were incapacitated at the same time. VP (is also President of the Senate hence why 4th in line is President pro tempore of the Senate - the longest serving member) then Speaker then president pro tem of the Senate.

    If Joe Biden were to become President then he is not obliged to have Nancy Pelosi (or whomever is the Speaker) - he can nominate anyone subject to approval by Congress.

    Pelosi is very much on the left of the party and would not necessarily be the best choice to step up.

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  • 149. At 4:45pm on 28 Aug 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:

    allmymarbles (#138), you are writing off the top of your head and you just don't know what you are talking about. The replacement of the Vice President is governed by the 25th amendment. Albert was never in the picture. Nixon nominated Ford, and he was confirmed by the Congress. When Ford advanced to the Presidency, he was replaced with Rockefeller by a similar procedure. Rockefeller wasn't even in the Congress.

    There is no excuse for being so ill-informed on Constitutional procedures when the document is available so easily online (I use the Cornell University Law School web site).

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  • 150. At 11:28pm on 28 Aug 2008, marygrav wrote:

    Americans can't resist humiliating an opponent. This is why they could not understand the Northern Allliance in Afganhnistan. They saw them fight each other to the death, then hug and change sides. Americans cannot do this.

    This may have a basis on how Americans become Americans. It was based on Race. Until the Voting Rights Act as part of the Civil Right Act of 1965 came into force, to be an American with full rights as a citizen, one had to be white. Thereby Whiteness had to be protected. One way to protect one's whiteness was to distance oneself from all tangents of Blackness, whether it was a move from the city to the suburbs, or to oppose Affirmative Action. By the way, the greatest benefactors of Affirmative Action has been White women and John McCain.
    Affirmative Action Laws prevent discrimination based on age, sex and gender.

    Even with the great speech that both Hillary and Bill Clinton gave pledging support for Obama, the US Media still was not satified. They want blood. If they could make it possible for both Clintons to be thrown to the lions, they would. Their biggest event and headline is or will be "Bill Clinton Not to Be At Mile High Statium to Hear Obama Sworn In." He may have something else planned. After all the Dems Primary season ran rather long.

    American as Christians need to learn to forgive. We came a long way but maybe this need for blood is in our collectif American genes. Perhaps that is why we cling so much to the Death Penalty and we have the highest number of men, women and children incarserated in our over-crowded prinson systems.

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  • 151. At 11:36pm on 28 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    149, Gary.

    Then were do the 1947 succession rules fit in? And I believe that Albert was acting president briefly.

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  • 152. At 01:25am on 29 Aug 2008, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Ms Marbles,

    The XXV amendment was proposed in 1965 and ratified in 1967, and thus supersedes the 1947 rules.

    xx
    ed

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  • 153. At 02:11am on 29 Aug 2008, allmymarbles wrote:

    152, Ed.

    Thanks. This has been confusing me.

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