Lulling McCain?
Is Hillary really pulling ahead? This will help. The real story here is the Clinton surge among independents.
I wonder whether the real conspiracy is this: that the Democrats are deliberately lulling John McCain into a false sense of security, a kind of elderly man's post-prandial nap, all the better to dispose of him in November. Not having to fight now is not necessarily a good thing for McCain after all - it could mean he goes through the summer without having really sorted out an effective policy line.
If independents win elections, which generally they do, the "will his supporters back her, or will hers back him" stuff among the Democrats will seem awfully last year.
And independent voters might well take a look at John McCain and not like what they see, allowing even a damaged Democrat to limp home.
Meanwhile, there are new lines in the Obama stump speech!
He is sounding more John Edwardsy. More like a fighter. More "feel your pain." Obama version 2.0?
Some of his quotes today at a town hall meeting in Wilmington, North Carolina include:
"I didn't get in this race, to run against Senator Clinton. I ran to run against unemployment. I ran to run against lack of educational opportunity. I ran to run against lack of health care, and substandard housing and a war that we should not have been fought. That's why I'm running," Obama said and then repeated again, "I'm not running against Sen. Clinton."
Plus:
"This election is not about me. It's not about Senator Clinton. It's not about John McCain. It's about you. It's about your struggles, your hopes, your dreams."
Hello, I'm 
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Lulled into a false sense of safety,.. I agree. McCain is not even sure he's a Republican. He's running as a R(H)INO and I fear that he will regret not being able to define himself otherwise during the Republican primary. Stronger Republicans folded to soon, was that because of Clintons being heir apparent, or because of something else
that on party insiders know. McCain?
Maybe Obamas initial push and entrance into the fray caught a few by surprise and the smart money decided to sit this one out. Either way, the Republicans 'need' a strong canidate in 2012, as this is a one term run.
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Your very last quote reminds me of an almost identical quote from the last episode of Season 6 of the West Wing. I can't find it online, and it's been a long time since I saw it, but as soon as I read it, it jumped straight into my mind.
Are we really watching the Santos campaign?!
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#2 adjonline
It is not the first time life imitated art, nor the last. Sounds a bit pathetic and way too much pathos...
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McCain should be more worried about the Republicans who won't vote for him. The Nevada causus for naming convention canidates sure was interesting to read about. Ron Paul managed to bring in a majority, and they had to shut it down to keep him from winning.
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I also think that the democratic battle might not be as good to McCain as some people say. At least in Mexico, the names Clinton and Obama are widely known while very little people has heard about McCain. One question, Justin, do you think that a Obama-Clinton joint-ticket is impossible?, maybe the superdelegates will choose the one running for president, and the other one would run for vice, if the winner doesn't mind...of course
Enrique
Mexico City
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Is Obama sounding like Edwards a bad thing? In my opinon John Edwards passionate defence of the poor in America is an inspiration. Obama (if he wins the nomination) should pick Edwards as his running partner. Edwards could and should bring in the working class whites in the south. An Obama/Edwards ticket would be unstoppable.
http://thewaitingroom-mcsb.blogspot.com/
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The link is rather interesting.
It does raise the question that if Obama is "so good and perfect for what is needed for right now-a change", why is Hillary still at his heels in the race? Given the projected lead over McCain if it were a Hillary v McCain, it does leave food for thought for those in the Obama camp. Does he want change for himself or for the country.
If it is for the country, then should he step aside given that he may not beat McCain, but Hillary will, based upon those figures. Ergo a real change in the White House to Democratic...but, just not with him at the helm.
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One thing Clinton has going for her is that her husband put together a team which managed the economy very well and brought it out of recession (the recession of the early 1990s was the reason he won in the first place) and into a period of great prosperity. Some say it was Alan Greenspan's reluctance to lower interest rates soon enough which cost George Bush Senior re-election. Too bad Clinton's Presidency was marred by a very weak foreign policy. But neither McCain or Obama has even that going for them. McCain doesn't understand the economy as evidenced by his failure to appreciate the lessons of the great depression in his proposals to deal with the banking crisis and it isn't clear that Obama understands anything about any subject at all beyond speechmaking and how to make vague promises to voters they interpret as their fantasies about his skills and intents see fit.
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8# so Obama's policies on Iraq, health and general foreign policy are worthless? At least Obama is not turning the same old tune that tax cuts cure all. How have the American people not worked out that the Bush tax cuts (along with the Iraq war) have caused the current economic crisis? Tax cuts make the rich richer and the poor poorer, it has never worked and it never will. Lets see what the tex rebates that current adminstration are sending out will do for the economy? Nothing, all my American frienda have stated that will use it to pay rent or pay of debts.
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MikeCotton25
Worse than worthless, positively dangerous. He says he'll pull out of Iraq ASAP without any regard for the consequences such as a regional civil war between the Shia and Sunni. Lots of people had grandious plans for national health insurance but they haven't found a way to pay for it. He'd probably cut back sharply on military spending leaving us much weaker than we are. As for his foreign policy, he looks like a traitorous sellout to America's worst enemies, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Syria, Cuba. It looks like he'd give away the store. In this regard, he'd be like a typical European leader. Weak as water as the Brits say. A lot of smooth talking but no guts.
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Obama has never said he would pull out US troops asap. The US and Britain should never have been in Iraq in the first place. I appricate that Iraq was not a democratic regrime, but as MarcusAureliusII has listed the USA's ememies include many other unpleasent regrimes. Why do the US not choose to deal with these? Because it was not in their interests to? Oil?
To say that he be would like a typical European leader is disrespectfull. Just because some European leaders choose to oppose the US dominance in world affairs does not mean they are weak. It means they have an independent voice.
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There only one thing Obama can do.
Obama stands up and says "Ladies and gentlemen of the press. Clinton would have you believe I'm unelectable, hell I almost believed her myself. However I have one thing for you to consider......this is Chewbacca, Chewbacca is a Wookiee from the planet Kashyyyk. But Chewbacca lives on the planet Endor. Now think about it; that does not make sense! Why would a Wookiee, an eight-foot tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall Ewoks? That does not make sense! But more important, you have to ask yourself: What does this have to do with the Democratic nomination?Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with the Democratic nomination! It does not make sense! Clinton isn't making any sense! McCain isn't making any sense! Non of the press except MSNBC make any sense!Look at me. I'm a running for president of the USA and I'm talkin' about Chewbacca! Does that make sense? Ladies and gentlemen, I am not making any sense! None of this makes sense! And so you have to remember, when you're about to vote for Clinton,does it make sense? No! Ladies and gentlemen. NO! It does not make sense! If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must vote for me.
Obama calmly walks off.....
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Sounds like 1992 all over again "its the economy stupid." It would appear from the UK anyway, that there is a clear anyone but Bush appeal, but that doesn't mean John McCain might not benefit from this. The Democrats troubles (or should that be democratic method of selection) enables McCain to ensure the Republicans do support him. As he quietly gets on with it out of the limelight.
I am still unclear about what exactly Barrack Obama stands for (I personally do not like his oratical style but that is just me). Fine if he wants to sound like John Edwards (but what exactly did he stand for).
There is no doubt race is the issue that dare not speak its name, Barrack Obama plays the race card as well anyone, he is certainly no fool.
Has foreign policy (since 1940 being a critical factor in American elections, you might argue 1968 but then the Vietnam War, was of a different dimension to Iraq).
So I go back to my original point, well not mine I plagarise "Its the economy"
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Adjonline, yes!
I was thinking the exact same thing. The quote sounds exactly like the speech to the democratic convention at the end of series 6. I cant remember exactly the first part, but I remember Santos saying. "Vote for the person who shares your hopes, your dreams."
Its also very similar to series 7, election night, where Santos says: "This election is not about me, or Leo McGarry or Arnold Vinick. Its about a vision for America that will oulast all of us."
Anyway, I'm surprised Mr Webb has not mentioned the West Wing, due to the incredible, almost unbelievable similarities between fact and fiction. Excellent blog though, I very much enjoy reading it.
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Justin has mentioned the West Wing and it's parallels to the current contest - I think way back around the Iowa/New Hampshire contests (those seem so long ago...)
Life imitating art? I can't help it's just wishful thinking myself - life doesn't have the happy endings.
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If ever there was a RiNO, it's Ron Paul.
Don't kid yourself, less than 1% of republicans voted for him.
To suggest that you would need to do anything to stop him is ridiculous.
Anyone who thinks that a campaign against McCain will be easy, has been lulled to sleep with a false sense of security.
His 2000 run against Bush forced that campaign to have some substance it otherwise wouldn't have had, other than:
"That tree hugger VP looks like a tree himself."
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If John McCain is keeping his powder dry for the Fall Campaign, he is a wise man. At this point in time who he will be faceing if far from certain. The future state of the economy even less so.
Obama's sounds more and more like Tony Blair before he came to power, building up exspectations he was unable to satisfy.
Europeans do not hate America, we hate war and a quick glance at the history of the 20th Century will show why. Hillary Clinton's comments about bringing freedom to Iraq and bombing Iran have gone over like a lead ballon.
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I apologise then, must have missed the West Wing comparison, or just forgotten about it (New Hampshire does seem so long ago).
I was thinking when looking at www.270towin.com of another similarity in the electoral math (as americans would call it). Obama puts Carolinas in play, as Santos did, but risks losing traditional democratic or swing states. Really is incredible how its played out. I only hope the result is the same.
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Although I wonder if those polls gave people an option to choose Nader. Obama drew a lot of independents initially, but since Nader announced he's running, he might have lost some of that support.
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We'll deal with Crazy Ol' Grampa McSame later.
I have little doubt he will be defeated as he is running opposite of the majority of Americans on pretty much every issue. Add that to the fact that he is representing the same party as the worst president in US history - a Republican named GW Bush - and things don't look so rosy for him.
I can't wait until November and especially January, 2009 when the world will be rid of Bush FOREVER.
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I would like to know what Marcus Aurelius II thinks of Obama's book -The Audacity Of Hope- evidently the springboard for his presidential campaign. A book about policy and little less, I felt. And kecsmar can't have many facts to hand either for his judgement that Obama fares worse than Hillary: the latest Rasmussen poll has Obama with a 2-point lead while Hillary has a 1-point lead. The fact that either has a lead while still in a fight for their party's nomination should be a clear indication of their strength against McCain this year.
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Well I tell you, Justin, that if Obama really is incorperating things such as the quotes you refferenced in his campaign, I surely can't understand why Independents are seemingly flocking to Clinton, and do hope they'll reconsider their position!!!!
politicsisfun (#13): '"There is no doubt race is the issue that dare not speak its name, Barrack Obama plays the race card as well anyone, he is certainly no fool."
I do ashaimidly admit that race is still an issue, and unfortionately will be, amongst racest people in this, and I should like to think (not that its a good thing mind you!!, but so as to know that America is hopefully not alone in its race and biggoted problems.), other countries as well. But if anything, Obama has tryed to avoid the race issue like the plague, talking instead about universal desires of people. And perhaps you're right about the Republicans, but I think that come November, no matter who the Democratic nominee is, people will decide that they've had enough of Bush-like policies, equate McCain as far too similar to Bush, and choose the Democrat.
Old-Man-Mike (#17): Yes Obama is very similar to Blair in terms of message, youth, and aurotory skils-preemptive millitary action excluded!! But I think it unfair of you to predict that Obama's promises will not be met. He's not even won power yet-how do you come to your conclusion that just because Blair's promises weren't necessarily all kept, Obama's won't be as well? And to be fair, I don't like Blair just as much as the next one, but he did implement a whole hoste of successful, fairer, more just domestic policies that we in this country can only dream of!!!! And you don't suppose that we "Americans" don't hate war just as much as you? Clinton's comments regarding Iran were completely out of line I agree, and that is why I don't want her to get the nomination!! I think anyone who is president, if faced with-God forbid-a nucliar atack on Isrial by Iran, should first consult their allies and get as strong a base of support before takeing any millitary action. Otherwise their action runs the risk of makeing the US seem as a war monger yet again!! And forgive me, sir, but if you are looking for unfair US millitary policies over the past century, then yes, Vietnam, the Bey of Pigs, etc, can be pointed to in an attempt to show, perhaps, why Europeans want a break from such policies by the next president. But you forget, that the majority of the "wars" in the 20 century were started by Europeans and not Americans!! It seems Europe has learned its lesson, now its America's tern!
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Also politicsisfun: Take a look at any pole asking Americans what main issues they will be voteing on this November, and it will show you that aside from the economy of course, that Iraq, and foreign policy in general, will be the second most important issue on which they will be voteing on!!
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Dear Justin,
Very little seems to have been discussed about the future influences China can have on American policy and the world in general after these elections. Both Chewbaccadefense' piece today showing he was from another planet and fellow commenter MarcusAureliusII' spectrum approach yesterday got me to thinking about cerebral and astrological factors of these elections. Here I refer to Western horoscopes [W] as an astrological aspect and in view of the above , must include the Eastern Chinese horoscope {E] into the equation for all the players. The results of these "horrorscopes" are astounding...:-
Bill Clinton August 19, 1946- Leo. W-poised , confident, sincere, good organiser, proud and ambitious outgoing and affectionate BUT arrogant , vain and snobbish.
E- a dog [year of the dog]-yang, attractive, sociable, idealistic, affectionate BUT cynical, lazy, pessimistic and quarrelsome.
Barack Obama August 4, 1941- Leo- shares the same western birthsign as Bill Clinton above.
E- an ox.[ year of the ox] -yin, dependable, calm, methodical, hard working, resolute and modest,BUT can be stubborn, materialistic, rigid and demanding.
Hillary Clinton October 26, 1947 W.Scorpio. - intense, secretive, strongwilled, loves a good fight, forceful BUT wilful, sullen, vindictive, bitter and sarcastic. Misuses sex??
E- a pig [year of the pig] Yin,calm, understanding, sociable, patient, scrupulous, intelligent BUT naive, gullible, fatalistic and materialistic.
John Mccain Augaut 29, 1937 W- Virgo helps others, shy, service, logical and methodical, BUT cynical, sarcastic, unforgiving, tendancy to be unfaithful.
E- fire rat [year of the rat] Yang, protecter, bringer of material prosperity, aggression, wealth, charm, order, BUT associated with death, war and attrocities.
To be helpful and for your readers information I include yours.
Justin Webb January2, 1961 W- Capricorn. Practical, ambitious, careful, patient, shrewd, reserved, cautious BUT gloomy, pessimistic, suspicious, cold and aloof, loves antiques [ which explains your favouring Mccain]
E- water rat [ year of the rat][[like Mccain]], Yang, hard working, charming, disciplined, systematic BUT dictatorial, over ambitious and scheming.
Sorry if these facts do not fit you or your readers ideas of the candidate. I am just the messenger. Blame Wikipedia.
Although they paint a broad picture for one and all they do not give us an insight into the mind of the individual.
On another tangent, I think that the democrat election will go all the way to the wire.
The DNC members will then be sent to a smokefree room [ health and safety reasons], where they will be plied with alcohol and blindfolded. {No, I know many wish they could be shot, but we are talking about a democratic process here} Blindfolded, they will face a dartboard and be given one dart.:- A single for Mccain, a double for Obama and a triple for Clinton[s].
Should they miss the board they will be sent to mid - Alaska without shoes for hindering the deliberations . Hitting the bullseye abstains them from further voting but they are placed in front of the board while their colleagues "vote" in an attempt to sway opinion.
What could be fairer than that. No more voter counts and delegate counts in the game.
Many will feel that using western or eastern horoscopes is not truly scientific and should not be considered at all by people with a strict religious mind set as shown by the Wright fiasco.
Mumbo-jumbo? I beg to differ, but then I'm born in the year of the monkey.!
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McCain does well with independent voters - at least he did before he started swinging right to get the Republican nomination. I do not think the Democrats are intentionally lulling McCain, I simply think the Democrats' nomination process is such that no one can clench the primary.
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test
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No, the "real conspiracy" is this: a coterie of rich insiders get together and create a one-party state that can wield tight control over the society and economy and media and then invent two party facades called the Republicans and Democrats (how quaint) to stage show elections every couple to four years to allow the peons to rubber stamp one or the other of nearly identical candidates to rule over them - and much of the rest of the world. Most of the commoners don't bother to go through the motion of token voting and the whole system goes on as before, as if the mock election had never taken place. There's nothing "new" in Obama Copacabana's lines. We've heard it all before. Not only from John Edward's but from Bill Clinton, Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter, etc., etc. It's standard Democrat boilerplate. As predictable as it is disingenuous. Also, in this instance, a little awkward - "I ran to run..."?? Ran, past tense, does this mean he's looking back, reflecting on it, he's all done? Anyhow, he's sort of right, "This election is not about [him]". It's not about Sen. Clinton." It's not about John McCain." But neither is it about "you". It's about the "conspiracy"; keeping the whole rigged system purring, business as usual for the elites without interference from below. "Your struggles, your hopes, your dreams" will just have to wait.
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John McCain is a moderate candidate. He has great appeal among independent voters just like Barack Obama. However, a large part of his own GOP doesn't like him. The religious voters view McCain as much to progressive/not conservative enough. Without their support he will loose from Obama (with John Edwards as running mate) in November. McCain has a chance against Clinton because she's very impopular among religious voters. They will do anything to prevent another Clinton entering the White House. This includes voting John McCain, altough he's not conservative enough. McCain needs a conservative running mate like Mike Huckabee. However, this may attract more religious voters but I doubt independents will appreciate this choise. Neoconservatives (Huckabee) aren't very popular anymore.
Conclusion: John McCain has still a lot of work to do.
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#21RupertO
If you read the link, from this blog, then you will undertsand.
If you read a link from "another" quoting different figures, then you wont understand.
The give away in my comments is thus:
"...The link is rather interesting..."
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MikeCotton25 #11
An independent voice? Perhaps your memory is short. When leaders of Eastern European countries came out in favor of the invasion of Iraq in 2002/2003 Jacques Chirac the President of France said they should either fall in line with his thinking and shut up or he would see to it that they didn't get into the EU. Do you remember that?
Did Barack Obama say he would pull out of Iraq ASAP? Yes, that is what his suporters and opponents alike believe he said and meant. In fact, he would pull out even faster than Clinton. Of course they both want to send more troops to Afghanistan. The question is why do we have to pull out of one theater of the war on terror to make up for the fact that our fair weather friends who pretend to be our allies in NATO won't pull their weight?
rupertornelius #21, I did not read Barack Obama's book. But nothing he said would likely have swayed me. In making a judgment about who is best qualified to be President, I am more concerned about demonstrated performance in the real world than words in the abstract one. In the all too brief two years or so he's been in the Senate, what accomplishments can he point to and say "I did that" or "I had a hand in that." None of significance I'm aware of. The gift or oratory or the ability to write well is not sufficient by a long shot IMO.
"The fault dear watermanaquarius is not in our stars but in ourselves."
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#13 You are not alone in not liking Obama's oratical style.
Watching him reminds me of Tony Blair - the slow speech, the deliberate pauses - it's almost as if he has copied Blair's style.
But it is not just his oratory that makes me averse to Obama. I also have a nagging doubt that he is also going to turn out like Blair - he looks good, he sounds good but is ultimately disappointing and flat.
I hope I am wrong but Obama just looks like another candyfloss politician just like Blair was.
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Board Stupid (#31): Yes, because who really wants good oratory skills in a politicion any way, right? You Brits intreague me!! If not good policies, oratory skills, follow through, then what do you want in your politicions? I'm not saying that Blair possessed more than one of these three things, but come on!! there has to be something positive about British politics/politicions according to at least one UK citizen, surely?
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Until the outcome of the Democratic race for
the Presidential nominee is decided upon,
there are 'three contenders' vying for the
the Office of the President of the U.S: McCain; Obama and Clinton. I feel, McCain has the more mature, father (not grand father) like figure with 'hands on experience' of what a war in Asia is like, who has the best hope of steadying the "ship of state" which has been 'rocked' by 9/11 and the Iraq war. The President
cannot possibly be the best of experts in all the fields himself, but he can surround himself with experts in the relevant fields.
That is why it is important that he chooses a running mate who complements him.
Solomon
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