A silver lining for the Democrats
Didn't Joan Baez endorse Woodrow Wilson?
Ed Iglehart raises a question I am unqualified to answer. Though perhaps Sir Elton John could sort it all out in the end.
Seems to me that Elton and small sums of money from people who have only just noticed there is an election on probably does not keep the boat afloat for long.
Sorry about the messed-up links and many thanks to stumo and others. They are now working.
Amid all the Republican rejoicing at the turn of events in the Democratic party I wonder if there is a silver lining for Dems - as outlined in this thoughtful editorial.
Basically the Democrats are registering voters and the Republicans are losing them. In Pennsylvania and elsewhere. So Republican merry-making might turn out to be rather premature.
UPDATE
And finally, for the moment, I wonder whether the image of Osama Bin Laden in this latest Hillary ad was a good idea - concentrating minds - or a disaster?
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Justin refers to Ed Iglehart, who asks "Is it legal or ethical to continue to solicit contributions for an officially lost cause?" I assume this refers to Mrs Clinton's campaign - which at this moment is hardly a lost cause, and definitely not 'official'. Only when the Convention decides who will be the party's candidate will that be so. I for one hope she continues to fight for the nomination, since it seems highly unlikely that Mr Obama can attain the Presidency - too much baggage and an unknown quantity. Perhaps after another's term in office he will be ready, but not in 2008.
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Thanks for the shout, but looks liked you missed the LA times link which is still broken, the at saying 'An interesting take here...'
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Ha! Good one... and I'm sure Dylan was an FDR man.
Horrible ad. In fact it makes me think of FDR again - "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Perhaps that is the big character difference between the candidates. Hope v Fear?
Could anyone inform me as to how seriously the superdelegates would regard Sen. Clinton's attack on Moveon? This for me was an eye opening read:
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/ali_eteraz/2008/04/democratic_party_apostasy_1.html
Is this making significant news in the US?
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Would that be Woody Guthrie, popular name of Woodrow Wilson Guthrie and father of Arlo Guthrie then?
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Basically the Democrats are registering voters and the Republicans are losing them. In Pennsylvania and elsewhere. So Republican merry-making might turn out to be rather premature.
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This is not necessarily what it seems. One thing the Republicans are enjoying is seeing Clinton and Obama. The longer it continues, the more dirt they sling at each other. Polls have currently shown that whichever wins the nomination, about 10% of the other sides supporters will not vote for the winner.
Now, where this comes into play. A lot of Republicans have been voting in the Democrat primary to prolong the uncertanty of who will win. In order to do so, they have to register as a Democrat. There is nothing saying they still can't vote Republican in the general election in Novemer while registered as a Democrat. You need to take this into account with those numbers.
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I live in Durham North Carolina (NC), and over the last few weeks more than 4000 new voters registered in our county, overwhelmingly for DEM and UNA (Democrat and Unaffiliated - one does not need to select party alignment in here, i.e. they remain Independent). We also have seen several hundred GOP (Republican) voters change their affiliation .... they could do this up to Friday April 11th. GOP voters now can only vote in the GOP Primary on May 6th, tactical switching is no longer possible in NC for the Primary.
However, I do not think it as simple as the statement "Democrats are registering voters and Republicans losing them". We know from earlier primaries that there was some encouragement for GOP voters to change affiliation so that they could vote in the DEM primary. The NC primary is "semi-open", unaffiliated voters can select on election day which primary they vote in, DEM and GOP affiliated citizens are locked in.
We also know that McCain has the nomination for the GOP, so there is no pressure on the GOP in the remaining primary states to register voters, this is very different for the DEM party, especially for Barack Obama. The Obama campaign volunteers have helped register 1000's of new voters in North Carolina, and apparently 7% of all new registrations statewide occurred in Durham County.
http://www.durhamforobama.org
I am hopefully that the NC Primary will make it so obvious who has popular support in the union and that the Superdelegates will support that. I think based on polling numbers, PA will essentially come out as a rough tie (or as American's would say, "a wash") .... I do not see either candidate netting more than 15 delegates there. NC should be very different, the border states with similar demographics already heavily endorsed Obama (South Carolina, Georgia and Virginia), Tennessee went for Clinton but the demographic there is different and similar to Arkansas, where Bill was Governor.
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Clinton's newest Ad really is a trainwreck. After 2004's fear mongering, after 2002's 'the smoking gun could be a mushroom cloud,' I don't believe the American people will fall for this sort of thing again.
What is most shocking about this ad is its total blunt usage of fear as a motivator. Coming from Hillary Clinton, this represents a stark departure from her positions regarding Republican tactics over the years. She has essentially surrendered her principles for the chance of scaring up a few extra points.
If nothing else, that is the tragedy of this election. Unwilling to accept that she, Hillary Clinton, the Golden Bear of Democratic Politics, had been bested by the Tiger Woods of the Democratic Party in the form of Barack Obama, she, Hillary Clinton, became that which she hated most. That's a real tragedy, as I don't see how a masterful and dedicated Politician like Hillary Clinton can ever really recover from this.
She let us all know it was always all about her. And even if you already believed that, its shocking to see an ad that's as subtle as a heart-attack and as delicate as a shovel to prove it.
Pray--PRAY--that Pennsylvania puts an end to this before Hillary takes the party down with her in true Phyrric fashion.
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Byron1436,
Sorry dude, but those ads work. It pains me to admit it but we remain as gullible and memory-impaired as always. Karl Rove's most enduring legacy will be his cynical yet accurate understanding that the voters can be manipulated and scared into submission. In a full-contact sport like politics, taking the high road means you lose.
Don't forget Willie Horton!
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I wonder if Billary sent Chelsea over to Aulis to have dinner with Achilles last night?
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David (1),
"too much baggage and an unknown quantity. "
???? And Clinton? Too much baggage and a somewhat known (and suspected) quantity.
xx
ed
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David,
I was referring to whether it WOULD be legal or ethical for HRC to continue soliciting contributions AFTER she withdraws...because it seems the main reason to remain in the 'race' is that she needs to cover her debts.
Of course, in Scotland and England, more than one politician has continued to raise money long after campaigns have ended, ....no names, no pack drills.
xx
ed
P.S. Only a miracle can save HRC's hopes.
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Michael Moore makes an interesting point - two, really - in his declaring his endorsement of Obama.
He notes that Clinton attempted on Wednesday, through some arcane argument, to link Obama to Farrakhan, and finds that somewhat disgusting. I'm inclined to agree but also to draw an object lesson.
Negative campaigning doesn't necessarily work; it embitters people and turns them against said campaigner. Look at the 1997 UK General Election: the "New Labour New Danger" broadcasts lowered the Conservatives several points in the polls. Hillary's attack-dog style might not be doing her any favours.
This is interesting, not because it actually means anything in itself, but because of the bizarre dismissal from the Clinton aide:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/photograph-of-bill-clinton-and-rev-wright-surfaces/
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Regarding Farrakan, it's noteworthy that Governor Rendell, Senator Clinton's chief supporter in Pennsylvania has given Farrakan fulsome praise indeed:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/21/ed-rendell-clinton-surrog_n_97784.html
Sauce for the goose?
xx
ed
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Mr Webb--
Regarding your last point: What we see in fact happening is that many are signing up for the Democratic primary whereas few are signing up for the Republican primary.
This is not necessarily a mark of the GOP losing members but rather a logical reminder that voting in the Republican primary is now rather pointless, since Sen. McCain has secured the nomination. I do not believe it can be taken as a sign of Republican disenchantment.
Furthermore, one phenomenom that has touched the Dem. primaries is Rep. voters signing up for them in order to perturb the primary process. I don't know how widespread the phenomenom actually is, but it is worth investigating.
Sincerely
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The 100 million dollars in wealth that the Clintons have acquired in public office is a clear sign of their joint venality, which started in Arkansas and continued through the selling of pardons by President Clinton.
The Obama campaign person who described Hillary as a monster was exactly correct. Witness her use of push polling to link Obama's name and his father's religion to Islamic terroism.
One would expect her to do well in Pennsylvania with one of the least educated and poorest white majority population states. The Clinton's have been campaigning on those prejudices for 25 years. I hope we get something better this time.
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It seems to me:
McCain = 19th century
Clinton = 20th century
Obama = 21st century
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Justin:
it is always nice to have a silver-lining!
~Dennis Junior~
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