Choosing the next leader
The man who will one day lead more people than any other person in history isn't even the most famous person in his own household.
Xi Jinping is China's vice-president - he's expected to take over as China's leader in 2012/13. To many Chinese people, though, he's been more famous as the husband of the folk singer Peng Liyuan [not in English].
For many years, Peng Liyuan has appeared on Chinese state TV's New Year Gala - the most watched TV programme of the year. She also performs in Chinese opera (I sat high up in the stalls of the newly opened Beijing Opera House a year ago to watch her sing.)
We've tried to interview Peng Liyuan many times, without any luck. Our interview application has been complicated by the fact that she's also a major general in the People's Liberation Army - an organisation which doesn't usually let its soldiers speak to foreign news organisations (we ran into the same problem when we tried to interview China's first astronaut Yang Liwei - who is also a major general).
Anyway, Peng Liyuan's husband is currently in Venezuela - his latest stop on a tour of Latin America. Since he took over as vice-president almost a year ago, Xi Jinping has been sent on a number of official trips abroad. These tours are partly designed to introduce him to the countries and leaders he'll be dealing with over the next few years. They're also partly aimed at showing the audience back home that the man they've known as the obscure husband of a popular singer has now become an international statesman.
Establishing Xi Jinping as China's next leader is an important subject for the Communist Party. The premise is simple: an undisputed succession will help the Party to stay in power.
A quick history of Communist regimes across the world reveals a major weakness in the Communist system: how do you go from one leader to another? Democracies have elections, monarchies have heirs apparent, Communist parties tend to have a mess.
For many years, the Chinese Communist Party struggled with the question. Chairman Mao's first two picks as his successor- Liu Shaoqi and Lin Biao - didn't work out (the first was condemned as a traitor, the second was killed in an unexplained plane crash).
Eventually, Deng Xiaoping took over. He then ran into exactly the same problem. Deng tried out two potential successors - Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang. He removed both of them.
Then, in 1989, Communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union collapsed. The Chinese Communist Party was determined to learn the lessons from the fall of similarly run Communist Parties. Among its conclusions - don't let yourself be ruled by a collection of elderly leaders who stay in power for too long, don't indulge in years of uncertainty and chaos about who takes over from the leader.
So, the Chinese Communist Party came up with a set of four clear rules in order to avoid any more of its own succession problems:
- Each leader will stay in power for 10 years - aiming to retire at about the age of 70.
- The most talented figure from a generation 10 years younger will be designated as the current leader's successor well in advance.
- An uncontested transition between the two will be respected by everyone.
- Repeat the above.
These rules were tested in 2002 when the current President, Hu Jintao, took over from Jiang Zemin. This marked the first successful, non-chaotic transfer of power in the Communist Party's history.
The process has now moved onto its second cycle. In 2007, Xi Jinping was chosen as the most talented figure of the next generation. He was appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee and then made vice-president. In 2012/13 he is expected to take over as the General Secretary of the Communist Party and the President of China. A few years after that, the Party will pick his successor. And so on.
So far, the Party's rules have worked.
I’m 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~44~RS~)
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Why? To foreign media it is mess but to us chinese it is not.
In the end the fitter survives and rules the country. It is our Chinese type of democracy. It works so far.
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China's next top two: Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang both have strong economic backgrounds and interestingly are the offspring of communist officials (at one point this would have actually put them at a disadvantage). Xi Jinping dealt with Taiwan successfully when governing Fujian, which is probably no coincidence in the interests of further integration.
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James,
I think it's good that you start talking about the top leadership of the politburo. They are the ones who are shaping the future of the world, which includes your own family, more than Brown does.
Hu was in fact the "chosen one" of Deng Xiaoping. Jiang was no more than an opportunistic crow. I don't know how Jiang got the top job in between. So strichtly speaking, Hu-Jiang power transfer was set and should not be counted as the "first" peaceful transition.
We'll see whether Hu-Xi transfer could be the first peaceful one.
Current Hu-Wen pair has set China into fast track of the economic growth. I do think they are doing more good than harm. I have no idea about this Xi though. The fact that even his singer wife could somehow become a Major General of PLA, definitely tells what kind of power-maniac he is.
If Xi's ability is as shocking as his look - a crab face, for want of a more polite word, decrorated by Maoist hair style as per the foto you provided, then I truely think it will be good thing for the ordinary Chinese people, because it provides a good chance of escaping CCP's iron rule: rebel and power for the people!
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Party Wu Maos always know well on anything, but forgot to mention Mr. Xi's father this time.
Mrs. Xi - Peng, is a famous military hymn singer (in China that form of propaganda sometimes dubbed Main Melody, which differs from folk).
Moreover, you get "the page cannot be displayed" if you type in her name (in Chinese) in a non-Google-China Google search engine, in China of course.
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Clearly evolving and progressive Communism at work. Similar to other non-democratic entities such as a military or a corporation, the most talented of the next generation is selected, and then groomed. Why then is such a procedure so puzzling when simply applied to government?
Time and again, much to the West's chagrin, China encounters and overcomes traditional limitations in order to iterate and drill down to an evolved form of government most suited for China, not blindly following Western-style democracy.
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thank you, James. what you said shows me how the prisident in China comes out which I did not know. I wonder why our country does not write these rules in law?
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I fail to see the journalistic merit of belittling the, as you so succinctly pointed out, "man who will one day lead more people than any other person in history". This could have been an interesting piece shedding light on the future President of China, but, alas, the tone you set with your first sentence already reduces it to flamebait for our Chinese friends.
Couldn't you have helped in making him less "obscure" by actually telling us something noteworthy about him? Somehow the fact that he's the husband of a famous Chinese folk singer doesn't strike me as politically relevant. According to your "rules of succession" he is apparently considered the most talented figure of his generation, so I'm rather curious how he managed to achieve that.
"Taking the New Year Train" and "China's New Generation Gap" gave me hope that there may be some high quality journalism on this blog yet. But even (or especially?) for a very liberal democratic citizen like me all the derisive asides and the constantly implied impending doom of the Communist Party are getting increasingly annoying. You think the Communist regime is evil and bound to self-destruct eventually. We get it. Now can we please move on, preferably to some quality reporting? I'd even settle for a couple of articles like the aforementioned ones every once in a while.
I originally began reading this blog hoping to gain some real insight into China because I recognized that my knowledge about China amounted to a bundle of stereotypes. But when your posts reflected the very same stereotypes I was trying to get rid of, I started to suspect I might not be getting a lot of information about the "real" China here.
Which shouldn't really surprise me, because, after all, it is called "James Reynolds'" China.
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If this system continues to work, and this is very early days, then it would seem to be a workable (dare I say Confucian) method of handing over power.
There is of course the problem that the designated successor may not live up to expectations or that if serious factionalism appears then the consensus will fall apart.
The great advantage of democracy is that it provides a mechanism for the peaceful handing over of power, even to parties diametrically opposed to those in power, whilst giving those that lost the hope of one day winning power. It also allows new parties and policies to emerge.
The major failings of hereditary monarchies (dynasties) and dictatorships (especially those based around cults of an individual) has been the issue of handing of power, finding suitable successors etc.
Civil wars have been the usual result of the breakdown of such systems or appointing wholly unsatisfactory successors.
The problem that remains with the CCP, of course, is that one day there may be widespread dissatisfaction with the party, the emergence of rival voices outside of the party and of how these are accommodated without descending into civil war?
Could the CCP peacefully relinquish power if it were universally unpopular?
As well as learning from recent history in Eastern Europe they could well look at how past Chinese dynasties fared, even the ones that lasted several centuries.
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Wasn't North Korean handover the first non-chaotic one?
Why not mention the sect conflict within CCP? Hu is a compromise between Beijing sect and Shanghai sect and Xi is a compromise between Hu and former Jiang.
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3: Jiang Zemin was chosen in a hurry after Deng Xiaoping and the group of elders decided to oust Zhao Ziyang in May 1989.
The current practice is a good way of getting around a key weakness of a one-party state system, if the system itself stays in place. Xi Jinping will however be the first CCP leader who hasn't been nominated by Deng Xiaoping, so it will be interesting to see how it works out.
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James,
Sometimes I wonder whether the human beings have really found the best social system. As a matter of fact, the so called "democratic countries" elected their leaders, who later were discovered to have embezzled billions of dollars and committed atrocities against not only his/her own people but also the entire world. China is a very old civilization and it has startled the rest of the world then, now and maybe in the future. IMHO, China is performing the biggest social experimentation. Perhaps the correct attitude is to watch and see and don’t make the premature conclusions. People tend to feel more comfortable about the system that they were raised, becuae they were constantly bombarded by their own media propaganda, but in reality is that really the best system?
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@ 1 topbear1974 wrote:
" Why? To foreign media it is mess but to us chinese it is not.
In the end the fitter survives and rules the country. It is our Chinese type of democracy. It works so far"
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I disgree with you on probably every single of your word, and I believe that almost all Chinese with conscience disgree with you on this.
To foreign media, it is a mess. To Chinese, it is also a mess! Make no mistake here, no one knows why and how Xi is selected. It could be anyone according to Hu's will. Certainly there is no room for any discussion and Hu bears no accountability.
Yes, you said that "fitter should survive". I assume you mean by that the Best survives. Under CCP's rule however, widespread corruption ensures to bury the best and the fittest of the generation that China has to offer alive. The worst and the ugliest will survive and prosper under utterly corrupted CCP. There is no chance whatsoever that the most intelligent, the most inspired, the most noble and moral, the least corrupted , the most capable Chinese could EVER appear amongt the top chairs of Chinese govenment. How sad is that? Xi is only probably the best among the worst. Is this understood clearly, topbear1974??
I don't suggest that China need to copy Western democracy completely, bearing in mind that it has also many drawbacks. However, China needs not be " ruled " by someone, as if he were the emperor as it is the case today.
What is it then? It is a shame! And this system is NOT "Chinese style democracy" as you and many acclaim, neither it works that well! China could have progressed much much faster in all respects, and ordinary Chinese could have suffered much much less, if corrupted CCP did not monopoly the power for the sake of their self interests.
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James:
Congrats and Wish him good luck as China's
next President...
In regards, to the comments in the final sentence....It is true that So far, the Party's rules have worked.....This is very true!!!!
~Dennis Junior~
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What happens when they pick an idiot or a tyrant? Who then removes him?
Sometimes politicans only manifest their worst traits once they are in power.
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@8
"Couldn't you have helped in making him less "obscure" by actually telling us something noteworthy about him? "
-Maybe there isn't anything noteworthy about him.
Without a free press it's harder to find out anything other than dull-as-dishwater propaganda.
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To 3
Haha...It is a vivid description of our next leader.
Stability and prosperity are what we Chinese people want as people from other countries and territories.
No matter who will take the power in future, I will support him and believe his team will work for Chinese people.
Another, it is the ranking system in the army made Peng the general, not because of his desire of power.
Many other singers are also generals. However they only get paid as much as general, and they do not have any power in any military operation. It is a kind of honor more than a military title.
Different cultures brings a lot of misunderstanding.
James opened a window for both of us to see what it looks like on the other side.
Window, anyway, is only a window. Please come to China if you want to know more. Welcome to Shanghai to attend the world EXPO!
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Democracies have elections
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If that is true Ron Paul would have won.
What US has is Money Politics. Democracy is available for the rich and powerful.Do you honestly think an independent candidate can win the presidential election for the next 1000 years ?
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Chinese leaders, unlike those western ones, attract few public attention, esp. their private life, so few Chinese know the relationship between Xi and the famous singer. Chinese leaders don't need personal show but hardworking and wisdom.
As a Chinese, I had no too much expectation on the successor, because he is already there and won't change our life too much. This time it seems a little different. To select Xi Jinping or Li Keqiang is still uncertain. However, whoever is selected, China's policy won't change much and China will still develop under her own pace.
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EWONGNL: second every one of your points. Can't agree more. Precise and succinct comments on the current political system in China.
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Will have a try at free speech again, the man didn't like the last one.
Looking at the US and what has happened there, I don't want China to vote for their leaders, because you can not trust the people to pick the right leaders at all.
But China needs a way to keep or kick the likes of Bush out.
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#28. jhercule writes:
"What US has is Money Politics.... Do you honestly think an independent candidate can win the presidential election for the next 1000 years?"
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While I agree that further campaign finance reforms should continue in the US, I am not in agreement with regards to the causality of the difficult situation for independent-party candidates. For better or for worse, the US has had a deeply-ingrained 2-party political system, virtually since its inception (even if upto ~10 candidates make it onto a presidential ballot). While there have been notable 3rd party candidates, several of whom have won seats in the House and the Senate... because of this 2-party structure, it is difficult for a third-party candidate to gain recognition, at least on a national election, and to raise funds.
That money should be no issue in an election is perhaps too naive. At the very least, it is required to spread the word and to make the public aware of what a candidate represents.
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I certainly respect China's system of choosing their leaders, but as many have pointed out, it would be even better if there were a system of checks and balances, whether this comes through a referendum of the people or by some other mechanism within government. Ten years is an awful long time to be stuck with a leader who doesn't quite pan out.
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I believe that almost all Chinese with conscience disgree with you on this...
EWONGNL: I don't think this way in selecting our leader can be called as "Chinese type demoncracy", neither it is the best way in the future. But I still believe this is the best compromise at this moment. Using other method will bring more problems: even worse than the problem now. And most Chinese know that.
The corruption is nothing to do with autocracy: India is even more corrupt, and Tailand, Russia? Can demoncracy brings us more talent leader? maybe, but we need to pay it: most likely it will bring us also slowdown in development, or maybe even chaos...
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Let China chooses her own way of managing her own leadership succession. If it is working well in China and not causing any political instability internally and externally. China should keep the system. I don't see it is a mess in China's system. I do see a mess in some democratic countries when come to leadership successions.
There is no foolproof political system in this world, as long as it suits the circumstances of your way of running the country and is able to care for the wellbeing of the people, it could be deemed as a good system. Don't copy, learn and adopt the Western democracy blindly, China should find the most suitable way of managing her own affairs and problems.
We don't tell the West how to run a country, just do the same to China.
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@ Bloofs
"What happens when they pick an idiot or a tyrant? Who then removes him?
Sometimes politicans only manifest their worst traits once they are in power."
Exactly. The voters in the leading democracy picked an idiot and a tyrant. He manifested his worst traits once he was in power. Strangely , in democratic system the idiot managed to stay in power for two terms. With the current Chinese system, I am pretty sure if a Chinese leader sinks the nation into debt he would not get a second term not to mention a bloody war.
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@ post 19
Quote ."Yes, you said that "fitter should survive". I assume you mean by that the Best survives. Under CCP's rule however, widespread corruption ensures to bury the best and the fittest of the generation that China has to offer alive. The worst and the ugliest will survive and prosper under utterly corrupted CCP. There is no chance whatsoever that the most intelligent, the most inspired, the most noble and moral, the least corrupted , the most capable Chinese could EVER appear amongt the top chairs of Chinese govenment. How sad is that? Xi is only probably the best among the worst. Is this understood clearly, topbear1974??"
Are you sure? So we are lead by the most corrupted, the worst, the ugliest? And China is doing quite well as a consequences? We must be a superior race? The last several leaders have been quite capable and China is doing well.
Are you sure Chinese are sufferring? Compare with 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago, Chinese are richer, freeer, happier. We know our country is making progress very fast.
My friend, your assessment of the situation is quite far from the reality. I hope one day you can come to China, find any old person in their 60s or above, go to their home ask them to show you their family photoes and see what changes happened in their life.
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Mr Gordon Brown was of course elected by no one and was long heir apparent to Tony Blair... indeed they did a deal allegedly over a meal in London fifteen years ago. So much for democracy. Three points about Mr Xi..... first the leadership evolution reach an important stage at the last Party Congress where some potential candidates put themselves about, even campaigning in Europe. Mr Xi seems to represent a preference of a more inwardly concerned boss. Second he is a blunt realist (there is a famous quote about the his turn to realism from revolutionary ideals after the Cultural Revolution.) He is a corruption buster cleaning up Xiamen at the turn of the Century and then Shanghai. Xiamen is an interesting place. From other sources I know that its economy is closely linked with Taiwan with many joint ventures. Lucky Mr Xi is a chemical engineer so won't be tempted to build the suggested bridge across the Strait :-) )
Third one of his current jobs is Head of the Party School. This is an interesting position. Party Schools are really training centres for public administration in China and as much else are decentralised to provinces, cities and even counties. My sources suggest they are underfunded and not performing well. It's a good test of whether he can get anything done.
Maybe James should visit one.
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The "problem" is not just how the top most leader is selected but every representative of districts and provinces.
A leader's decision still comes from the suggestions of his peers and ministers. If China can not democratically elect representatives and ministers, then it doesn't matter how good the ultimate leader is.
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His education disgusts me the most. Hu was actually enrolled in Tsinghua (before cultural revolution) because he is talented. Xi, on the other hand, went to Tsinghua during cultural revolution as a 'worker-peasant student'. Those people were recommended by so-called "People's Commune" and they literally learned nothing during their school. Like our future core, Mr. Xi, who majored in Chemistry Engineering, ironically continued his graduate study in "Marxism". I am really worried that he is really gonna take over the power and right now, we can only wait and see.
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