Does history favour freedom?
In the absence of crystal balls, tea leaves, or time machines, it's hard to know for sure what'll happen in the future. Some guesses turn out to be fantastically incorrect (remember the professor who declared that rail travel at high speed was impossible because passengers would be unable to breathe; or the mathematician who assured the world that heavier-than-air flying machines would never work).
Anyway, the fear of being wrong hasn't stopped anyone from predicting the future course of China.
Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, one school of thought has dominated the predictions made by China's chief rival, the United States: the belief that democracy is bound to come to China, because free trade leads to political freedom, and because the steady march of history favours freedom. Let's call this the history-says-freedom-will-come camp. It's been championed by the last two American presidents:
"I have told President Jiang that when it comes to human rights and religious freedom, China remains on the wrong side of history. Unlike some, I do not believe that increased commercial dealings alone will inevitably lead to greater openness and freedom. We must work to speed history's course."
- President Bill Clinton, Washington DC, 11 June 1998
"I'm optimistic about China's future. Young people who grow up with the freedom to trade goods will ultimately demand the freedom to trade ideas, especially on an unrestricted internet. Change in China will arrive on its own terms and in keeping with its own history and its own traditions. Yet change will arrive."
- President George W Bush, Bangkok, 7 August 2008
A pretty clear position, then. But there is another school of thought. Let's call this the don't-bet-on-it camp. This viewpoint argues that democracy in China isn't inevitable at all. It argues that free trade actually strengthens authoritarian regimes instead of bringing them down (this school of thought is vividly argued by the journalist James Mann in his book The China Fantasy). It looks like the don't-bet-on-it camp has had a say in the drafting of a new US Intelligence report which guesses what the world might look like in 2025 ...
"Other discontinuities are less predictable. They are likely to result from an interaction of several trends and depend on the quality of leadership. We put uncertainties such as whether China or Russia becomes a democracy in this category. China's growing middle class increases the chances but does not make such a development inevitable."
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, US National Intelligence Council (published November 2008)
So, there are two competing viewpoints. The history-says-freedom-will-come camp believes/hopes that China will end up being powerful and democratic (ie - just like America). But the don't-bet-on-it camp suggests that China will be powerful and probably not democratic (ie - not like America). We wait for the position of the incoming Obama administration.
Setting the march/non-march of democracy aside, there is a consensus that China will get more and more powerful by 2025:
"China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country. If current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world's second largest economy and will be a leading military power. It also could be the largest importer of natural resources and the biggest polluter."
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, US National Intelligence Council (published November 2008)
So, that's what the US thinks. But how does China see its own future?
In many ways, this country is still following a famous bit of advice given by Deng Xiaoping in 1991 as the Soviet Empire was breaking up. His advice is known as the "Twenty-four character directive":
"observing with a cool head, securing our position, dealing with the situation calmly, hiding our capacities and biding our time, being good at defense, and never being in the limelight"
(quoted in "China and the Legacy of Deng Xiaoping," by Michael E Marti)
In 2003, China's next set of leaders built on Deng's advice when they came up with a phrase designed to explain the country's re-emergence as a global power: "peaceful rise". In other words, we're not out to invade your country and make you all speak Chinese.
The Communist Party always likes to point out that China is still a developing country that still has a long way to go before it challenges or even overtakes the United States.
The figures show that China has a point. The two most immediate measures of any country's power are money and guns. At the moment the US economy is more than four times the size of China's. And the US spends about 10 times as much on its military than China does on its own armed forces. So, in terms of the power to spend and the power to shoot, the US is still a long way ahead.
But China does have its ambitions. It's clear that the country wants to assert its authority - particularly in East Asia. Politically, the country wants to make sure that the self-governing island of Taiwan doesn't declare independence. Economically, China is determined to protect its trade routes (a large percentage of China's imports comes through the Strait of Malacca between the Indian and Pacific Oceans).
The Communist Party believes that the best way to achieve its aims in this respect is to develop a strong navy. Recent reports suggest that China is keen to buy its first aircraft carrier. China's military ambitions worry some in the United States (I once interviewed a US Congressmen who compared China to the shark in Jaws). At some point in the future the two countries may jostle for position in the Pacific.
In the long term, China, the US, and other countries may also find themselves competing for and even fighting over resources. China's dramatic rise has been fuelled by raw materials provided by other countries - particularly those in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. In order to keep on growing, China needs to keep on importing resources. So, what happens if everyone ends up chasing the same set of raw materials ?
The answer is that we don't know. As I said at the beginning of this post, predictions often turn out to be wrong. Remember that the US intelligence community predicted neither the building of the Berlin Wall in 1961 nor its collapse in 1989.
So, no one knows for sure what will happen in 2025. Unless, of course, you happen to have a time machine.
I’m 
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yea, even third world war is possible, who knows
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I fall into the don` bet on it camp. Democracy evolved in the west over the past 1,000 years. It took revolutions, counter revolutions, the renascence, the reformation, the enlightenment, riots, the trade union movement, suffragettes, civil rights activists, countless political thinkers and the cutting off of a few monarchs` heads to get us to where we are now.
China has no such history. It`s entirely possible that historians will look back on the communist era as just another dynasty.
China has also always known highly centralised power. I suspect that like Russians, many Chinese value both this and strong leadership; because every time the centre disintegrated or was weakest in the past it led to civil wars and immense hardship (famine etc) for the peasants. Reading a history of China I was struck by the magnitude (and frequency) of the vast numbers of people that died when dynasties weakened and collapsed.
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In some respects, the lack of democracy actually enhances the long-term strategic planning and development of China. Gordon Brown is saddling future generations with a mountain of debt as he knows full-well that the opposition party will be in power come 2010. The CCP has kept the people quiet through economic development, but if circumstances were to change, then who knows how things will unfold. Tiananmen 1989 had more to do with sky-high inflation and corruption than democracy.
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one thinkg for sure is, i don't belief in prediction. history has shown us, the great empires have fallen into pieces. china is on that same path unless it becomes more open and democratic society. I don't want to go into deep but what we are seeing right now behind those high rise building is clear indication tha people are simply not happy with current system of government. China may become influential in next 10 to 20 years but if this one party regime continues, this could pose a great threat not only US but to whole of asia as there i no check and balance.
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People favor freedom, and CCP doesn't. So the answer lies in that is it going to be a powerful CCP regime or a strong China where people are not oppressed.
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China?s trade with a few American third-world nations reached more than $100 billion recently.
In comparison, the total trade between China and EU is only $250 billion.
UK and BBC seem to desperately fighting for attention, against the obvious historical trend.
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Here is a complaint:
Why do I NEVER see a list of soldiers from the UK on BBC?!
? talking about Cold-war childhood indoctrination against China.
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I don't think China will become a democracy any time soon. China cultural heritage had revolved around authoritarian for so long (since Confucius) it is ingrained.
The authorities always came down hard on the people and there is not much anyone can do about it.
It'll take a long time to change.
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This seems to be a bit of war-mongering on your part James, drawing China to be a rising power with overtly peaceful motives, but implying that China is covertly expansionist and that, somehow, the English-reading world should look out, be aware, and remain vigilant ...
You might as well come out like Cafferty and call us all goons and save yourself a few borish paragraphs, no? ::YAWN::
I will say this -- you'd do well to realize that, in wife, NOTHING is ever in black and white. There is no such thing as either freedom/democracy wins, or communist dictatorship wins. What truly, "wins," my friend ... is the correct balance of individual rights/freedoms v. the obvious need for governmental oversight, wealth redistribution, well-being of not just the individual, but the overall good of the group. Last I checked, Western governments still love to collect their taxes and libertarian candidates (i.e. Ron Paul) still aren't winning any elections.
Furthermore, the US model of complete reliance and free markets and zero governmental over-sight has lead to the collapse of the global economy on a worst scale since the Great Depression, resulting in a $700Billion dollar tax-payer bailout which begs the question: isn't the US simply moving closer to the Chinese economic model that the US criticized so vehemently just a few years ago?
Seems to me, James, if you posit the correct question ... who's mixture, so far, is closer to the best balance? The answer is fairly, and evidently, clear ... although it's not the answer you'd probably like to have seen.
But, of course, I guess when the facts aren't quite so favorable to the spin you wish to put on things ... the best thing to do is simply show more menacing photos of the PLA and PAP, right?
As to the West, China's never really been given a square deal ... not in 1900, and not today. The only difference is, today, China actually has leverage, and it can leverage for itself an actual square deal. And, THAT, my friend, is what scares you.
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P.S. -- Again, let's not forget the per capita usage of "scarce resources," that the Western world enjoys, as compared to the per capita usage in China, and elsewhere in the developing world ...
So what happens if everyone chases the same set of raw materials you ask?
Well, if that's a problem, isn't it civilized for those who've already eaten their fill and then some to step back from the table and let others who've not eaten get a morsel or two?
Huh, so much for such "civilized" nations, no? If England is still willing to fight in the Falklands and the US in the middle east as well as having military bases all around the world ... seems to me that the sated shall continue to gorge themselves around the dwindling buffet, while elbowing out of the way those whose plates remain unfilled.
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I don't think you've got any new topic to write about: just following others' opinion. After all, is this your business? or is this your country's business?----I know this will be thrown to 'awaiting moderation', but that's just what I felt... as a normal Chinese living in U.K.
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I have a serious concern about this article and in general the definition of democracy. Chinese administration is extremely scared of unrest of people, so what does it do? It makes sure the country develops and the people are happy and satisfied. Although it responds, rather quickly and effectively, to needs of people it is not a democracy. But many countries, including Italy, Portugal, Mexico, India ..., are democracies but do not respond to public demands. Taking Mexico as an example the three major parties, PRI, PAN, and PRD, have been hijacked by crooks. People certainly vote but based on who is going to harm public less rather than based on who is going to benefit public better ... and it has been status quo for several decades now.
My concern is since 'democracy' is so well defined, as an electoral system, we are prejudiced enough to consider a responsive but not democratic government as a bad government. China is not Saudi Arabia or Burma, the Chinese government responds to public faster than most democratic governments. Yes, it is not the country with the best human rights record but it is far better than what it used to be and better than many democratic countries (especially if you consider foreign policies). Also, the idea of 'peaceful rise' is a brilliant idea and let China peacefully rise.
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It would be great to be able to live to the age of 200, just to see what happens. It wouldn't surprise me to see the country run along the same lines for decades to come, and it also wouldn't surprise me if big changes happened politically, as economically and socially a lot has been happening.
There is a tradition of authoritarian government in China. It has however by very small degrees been democratizing and becoming more free since Deng Xiaoping put an end to Maoist policies of class struggle, etc. This process is set to continue for the foreseeable future, and the signs are encouraging despite some of the injustices that persist.
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Most of what I have seen written is written from the point of view from UK or US educated people, you must remember that all people do not think alike. Is freedom really a good idea?? What has America contributed to the world?? what have all the developed contries contributed to the world?? We are on the brink of an ecological disaster greater than man has ever seen and all that can be reported is the political point of view. We will not have any thing to argue over by 2025 if we assume that China will head in the same direction as the west politically or economically. My one hope is that China will see reason and change course and save the world from all the people who want more than they need. My guess is they from the evidence I have seen is, they will not change course and the world will plunge into an era like many predict in fiction of post modern collapse(Mad Max style). I hope I am wrong as I have two young children who will inherit our mess.
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I think China is going to build aircraft carrier by itself(maybe it is already underway) and they plan to buy aircrafts from Russia.
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James
This is a very good article. You post a question to lead this discussion without your own opinion. One thing perhaps can be improved is that put some other country?s view about China into the article (other than USA or European countries). Overall I think this is one of your best blog.
About the question about where China will take her course in future, as you said nobody can predict it. However, I can say with certainty that China's future will be very different to what you see in the West. It will become a democratic country on her own term. Hopefully people will not try to measure her democracy with the West.
As with any form of government, it will have its good, bad and ugly sides. China will growth and reform at her own pace and direction. A new generation of leadership in China will take what is the best from other countries and apply them to China. China?s growth will not be a thread to the rest of the world, but some countries may not feel comfortable about China?s power and influence. Frankly there is nothing China can do about it. The people in the West just have to be more open minded and accepting that there are different forms of government and democracy.
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James,
In John Garver's "Sino-American Alliance: Nationalist China and American Cold War Strategy in Asia," he made it very clear about the strategic thalassacrocy about the Taiwan island. Without Taiwan, PRC has no de facto access towards the Pacific. It will always intrude into water belong to other nations or creat great alarm in the Taiwan Strait if it attempts to penetrate into the Pacific.
And coincidentally or not (I believe not), Taiwan happens to be a democracy which is unwilling to reunite with PRC unless PRC is willing to show some signs of moderation. So there is an incentive there for PRC to democratize.
But of course, Taiwan could be drawn into the PRC without pulls from the west. And hopefully those pulls doesn't involve sexual harassment, exploitation and degradation of the Taiwanese people. There were two seperate news stories in Taiwan in the last few day. One involving a French exchange student, one, a Spanish journalist. The west really need to work on the pervading attitude of white supremacism, really!
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In 2025 a lot can happen including the collapse of USA. 9/11 was created by the Bush regime to delay the inevitable and an excuse to invade and steal Iraqi oil keeping US dollar as the main currency for now.
In short this blog is useless, nothing more than restating what the report had already said.
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Why do westerners have to see everything from military perspective? I will tell you what happen when every body is chasing the same resources. Those who has the cash and willing to pay more will get the resources, not those with bigger gun.
Will China become a democracy? It depends on Chinese people themselves. Will they want it? What kind of democracy they want? like the one in America? or limited democracy like in Japan or Singapore? Chinese people have to choose for themselves. We don't want somebody force their ideas of democracy on us, like what happened to Iraqis and Afghanis.
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Reynolds speaks of "democracy" and "freedom" as if they're synonymous. In fact, it is quite possible to have one without a significant amount of the other. No democratic government ever devised has increased freedom over time. Rather, it has achieved the opposite and in China's case it will be no different. I refer to it as the "law of diminishing freedom". Of course, we have to differentiate between "freedom from", where we are offered a false sense of security, from "freedom to"; that which we give up in exchange for for that perceived security. "Democracy" is nothing more than the proverbial two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner, regardless of the Western democratic ideals that really do nothing in the long run to protect the sheep. Eventually, the wolves will outnumber the sheep and China can claim that it was all achieved democratically.
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1. China's chief rival is not United States. Not sure if China has one. Certainly China doesn't care, doesn't need one.
2. Without knowing China well, any "predictions will turn out to be wrong." That's for sure.
3. China does not need western style democracy. In fact, it would be disastrous, if China adopted it.
4. Religion should be curtailed in all societies, and eradicated ultimately. It's the source of all conflicts, all troubles.
5. China doesn't need western interpretation of 'human right'.
6. China, like any other countries in the world, has been changing everyday "on its own terms and in keeping with its own history".
7. China should progress herself under Deng Xiaoping's directives.
8. China will not change to western satisfactory until one day China is not bullied by the west.
9. China has a lot less ambitions than any western countries. Has never sent one soldier outside his territory.
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"The two most immediate measures of any country's power are money and guns. At the moment the US economy is more than four times the size of China's. And the US spends about 10 times as much on its military than China does on its own armed forces."
The Chinese government significantly under report their military spending. 3 years ago RAND Corporation estimated that the real value is somewhere between "1.4 to 1.7 times the official number". Last year, the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated China's real spending to be around "$85 billion to $125 billion" - 2 to 3 times the official value.
China may talk a lot about "peaceful rise" and their economy may still lag behind the US, but they are certainly working hard to catch up to America in terms of guns.
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Actually, the Chinese government is currently practicing a form of meritocracy that was originally advocated by Confucius. I seriously doubt that China will turn completely democratic, but it will be adapting itself to the needs of the nation and balancing that against the political realities of the world.
It is my impression that China wishes to be a "quiet" power: one that can assert itself when absolutely needed but relying almost extensively on diplomatic endeavors. When it has something good going on, it will celebrate it just because they've worked hard on completing it.
The irony at the moment is that the US and EU want China to increase its participation in peacekeeping duties and yet complain about China's procurement of equipment to meet the requirements of a modern peacekeeping force.
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"The history-says-freedom-will-come camp believes/hopes that China will end up being powerful and democratic"
What bit of history says China will become more free and democratic????
Every aspect of China's 5000 years of greatness and not-so-greatness all point to a stable social and ruling trend of no democracy.
If my nation has pyschologically avoided mainstream democracy for 5000 years, I'm kind of thinking there is a reason, albeit flawed.
I agree democracy or a form of representitive universal sufffrage is vital to sustain future Chinese growth, but will it happen? I am skeptical, because I don't see any evidence in society, past and present to encourage me.
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I still worries about their policy towards the gov controlled media, for example their media relatively little have concern about the day to day happenings in North korea, their old dear allies.
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@James
History always favours freedom but may not be your brand. History favours Chinese brand of freedom and democracy in China just like it favoured American brand of freedom and democracy in the USA. Americans are enjoying their brand of freedom to carry guns while still not feeling safe. Americans are enjoying their brand of democracy while having a president they voted into power robbed the country and majority to benefit few riches. Enjoy! Your British brand? Donot even mention it to me. Your brand of democracy is simply not good enough. We Chinese will have our brand of democracy and freedom whatever you call it.
I clicked on the article you provided and my computer went dead.
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Dear moderator,
Could you process the No 85 comment in "China's new economic plan". I really want to read it. Please.
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No body could tell what would happen to China when Deng started the reform back 30 years ago. Unimaginable things have happened. Try to imagine what China will be like in another 30 years? May be still one party system similar to singapore's? Two parties? With the return of KMT? Who knows?
One thing that I am certain: China will be stronger.
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China already "has" an aircraft carrier - Russia sold them the sister ship to the Admiral Kuznetsov.
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when i used to watch war movies as a child, i asked my uncle who are the good guys and the bad guys and he told me it depends on who side are they on. now i know what he really meant by that. western societies still perceive political systems as good or bad, how childish. western people, especially the U.S still see china as a adversary. it is a continuity of the cold war, west vs communist, one party ruling vs multiple parties. china and india are both rising, so what do the west do? they harbor India to suppress the so call "china threat". this occurs because india has similar political system to the west, 'they are on the same side'. people in india are no freer than the chinese. in fact, there are many countries offer less freedom than china, but the west don't mention at all. honestly, who really care if people in other countries have freedom? i don't, not many people do. the west don't care if chinese people have freedom, they are just using 'freedom' as a propaganda tool to stigmatize China in the midst of a continuous cold war.
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There are the "China threat" camp and the "China collapse" camp. This so-called "intelligence" report comes from the "China threat" camp. I couldn't remember how many reports I've read on the imminent collapse of China and on the threat posed by China to the rest of the world. They are as reliable as the "intelligence" report on Iraq's WMD.
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You worry too much about China. If China had been under the Neoconservative thumb of the US like the so-called Free World, the world would be in a worst financial crisis than it is already in. Britian has already had its chance at controlling China, abused it, and was dismissed.
Furthermore, I suggest that China bashing should cease until one has read Jean Gimpel's THE END OF THE FUTURE, translated into English in 1995. In it Gimpel predicts just what is occurring now, "the end of white supremacy" and the rise of China and the East. It is no disgrace to enrich one's knowledge of the past and the future.
While the West, especially Europe was watching and critizing China, the US banks and Wall Street was robbing the world blind. It is exactly like the Bible cautions: Don't criticize the speck in your brother's eye when you have a beam in your own eye. The Western eye is a tricky thing. It only sees evil where there practically is none, but passing over War Crimes as though they are benigh. And only sees Terror coming from the East when the Terrorism of poverty lives in your own Western Conferences with Laizze Fairre Capitalism causing the Terrism of poverty and starvation even on your own door steps.
The IMF and the World Bank has had to go to China and India to keep itself solvent. Yet you worry that the conditions which cause these nation not to go begging hand and hand will bring you the discomfort that a mixed political society is not a better bet than one based on Western democracy which only frees the rich to feed upon the poor.
The Neocons have taught the US how the rich with their ideology can bring a mighty nation to its knees. They too sit in their corner and grummble about China.
I hope that God, in all his mercy, has prepared a hot place in Hell for them.
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What is freedom? When Yetson became President of Russia, that was suppose to be the defeat of communism and the birth of freedom. What was not understood is that the CIA backed a $10 million dollar loan to Yetson, which was never paid back, to buy this freedom. When his time was up, Yetson passed this mantle of freedom on to Putin. In order to do this successfully, he had to create chaos in Moscow by blowing up some of it urban neighborhood in order to turn the Russian citizen against Terrorist and terrorism. The Terrorist of course were peoples of color from the Caucuses and Chezynia, who as former citzens were living marginally in Moscow. Putin won of course.
Oil was/is the major problem in Cheynia and the former Republics and like the freedom loving US, the Russians covented it in other peoples' territories. War has been the answer ever since.
Like most people, freedom is comfused with capitalism, as is democracy. Sometimes minding your own business is freedom.
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To #27 Shangpied,
If you think Chinese are slave, I say you are a slave of Christianity. The West is totally under Ghod control. You never enjoyed any freedom.
To #31, Religion + patriotism created a generation of Christian mass-killers.
To #33 Democracy101,
You have no clue about Chinese culture, believe or not.
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Neither one, China is too wise and experienced in living.
Seeking power is for the weak and China is no longer weak, so they will look to a better future not in military and political dominance.
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Finally the State Department is swaying towards the realisation that the PRC has no sense of obligation, nor cares about any citizen of another state.
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My prediction: Full democracy may not come to China very soon, but a regional monitoring system will soon take place.
There will be no war between China and other countries. The PRC government and Taiwan government will join hand to trade and protect the interest of the people in the circle of Chinese culture.
Tibet will be more intergrated with mainland China as living in Tibet improve. Noble Tibetans in India will soon lose the support from the indian government when the border issues between India and China are resolved.
China will become a big polluter but given the government invests more on railway and renewable energy than the US it will not be as great as some people predict.
Chinese culture will enter a new era of development and it means the world will be more diverse.
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eventually, not only china, other developing countries like inida and bazil will also grow up and become powerful, and no one could and should do anything to prevent others from growing powerful.
the problem is not who should or should not grow powerful, whether she's your type or not your type. the problem is whether you wanna see somebody grow up as your friend or as your enemy.
enenies "compete" and friends "share". thats how the choice of words speak out of your unconscious mind.
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The slow and steady process of developing itself shall take China as higher as a superpower country within next 20 years, as per my guess and findings of rapid growth of its economy, work force and international popular marketing of its products in a very economical price and so on.
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Well, James!
Thank you for the reference to the Marti book, I shall obtain it!
It is not certain to me that the choice is democracy or not. Or, the road to democracy or not.
If we look at the USA, Britain, France and Germany, we have to wonder how good what they (individually) refer to as "democracy" is.
How to have a government FOR the benefit of the people?
One key element is the ability of the people to "throw the rascals out". But, how often should this be allowed?
Is one generation, or fifteen years, too often?
Can the ruling class avoid corruption?
Looking at things this way does involve thinking outside of the box of inculcated prejudices.
_______________________
I have been powerfully impressed by the increase in technical (medical) prowess of one organization I have been working with over the past five years!
If the system is properly managed, the rise of China is most fields seems inevitable.
Ideology is the enemy of progress!
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James Reynolds is obviously right to say that the future is hard to predict. Nonetheless, we should try to imagine the probable alternatives to avoid being caught once again in unpleasant surprises.
Having closely observed a few Western World dictatorships wind up in the XXth Century (from the mean and nasty variety to the well meaning and mild type), I believe it is possible to draw five reasonably probable scenarios. They are all historically short term: ten to twenty years.
i) the present regime survives practically unchanged: very unlikely.
ii) the regime implodes: not very likely.
iii) the regime evolves with few upheavals into a democracy as in Greece, Spain, Brazil and others: not very likely, either.
iv) the revolution of frustrated hopes takes hold of large chunks of population, including some with real power, and a some sort of upheaval or series of them occur and the regime is deposed through a bout of anarchy: probably the likeliest possibility
v) to avoid being deposed, the ruling faction gets involved in a foreign adventure to keep the allegiance of the population: let us hope this one will never happen.
We just have to wait but it is difficult to imagine the regime will survive more than a decade or two.
Of course, my assumptions are based on the fact that human societies may live at different stages of development but basically human beings are and behave very much alike irrespective of race and even background. Only different levels of development and education change their behaviour markedly.
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Absolutely, it's as necessary and important as UK to develop a strong navy, because both have a long coast line.
Chinese nations historically have little preferrence and actual action on invading other countries, except the Yuan Dynasty. What Chinese nations really care about is the unification of our own country, so most of wars in Chinese history is a matter of split and unit. As a result, we can't bear Taiwan and Tibet broken away from the motherland. In our opinion, Taiwanness, Tibetans and other small groups are all Chinese just with different races or in different places.
Chinese nations nowadays are still peace-loving and modest and will always be, no matter how economically or one day militarily strong. The only thing that can bring China and Chinese into war is the broken away of Tibet and Taiwan.
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When looking at the point of human resources, China has fallen behind of the western countries. If they would offer well-fastened positions for cutting-edge researchers, the prospect of their dominance will be broadened at least on the field of economy.
But to be recognized as a super-power the highest respect toward philanthropy and humanity is demanded. I would like to hear what they are going to overcome in this aspect.
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I think the constitution says China is "a socialist state under the people's democratic dictatorship".
Apparently the government thinks dictatorship is a form of democracy as well. So in some people's eyes China is already democratic.
The constitution also guarantees that "citizens of the People's Republic of China enjoy freedom of speech, of the press, of assembly, of association, of procession, and of demonstration."
Nicely written, poorly executed. And I heard China's earthquake building design codes are among the most advanced, yet you still get these children killed by the substandard school buildings collapsed in the earthquake. Typical.
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It is dreadfully pessimistic of me but I wouldn't bet on democracy in China in the foreseeable future. After Spain's emerging from fascism in the 70s and a spate of Eastern European countries throwing off the shackles of Soviet communism in the 90s we in the west have developed an expectation of democratic evolution that just doesn't seem to be happening any more. The totalitarian regimes of the world must have been studying those events closely and have learned their lesson; principally that the grip of the state over the downtrodden masses can only be relaxed once it is certain that all the fight has been well and truly kicked out of them and all the trouble makers are in exile, prison or pushing up daisies.
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Zzzzzz.....
Nothing new in this blog that has not already been stated with better insight, context, and cultural understanding elsewhere in other magazines, papers, TV...
Again...
Zzzzzzzzzz..........
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Democracy can take on varied forms with the Western pattern being one of many. And it's more than obvious that China is set on a totally different path. As long as it works to the benefit of its people, why should we be bothered what name we call it?
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I have to say, the title "James Reynolds' China" is very apt. Most of the articles don't really focus on the people of China's China. In fact, most of them read as though they could have been written from anywhere else in the world. Please James, provide some real insight into the real China rather than your political opinions. Just because this is a blog doesn't mean you really get to say what you want because at the end of the day, it's part of my TV license which funds your rants.
I'd reply to the topic, but there's not actually much for me to reply on. It's all viewpoints dragged up from random sources. Have you talked to the people of China to find out what their mindsets are? What do they consider to be democracy? What do they consider to be freedom? Supposedly I live in a democratic society but the freedoms I have in this police state are little more than what I'd get in China.
More relevant reporting please.
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I think before March, more people would have believed in a "peaceful rise" of China. Before March, young Chinese intellectuals and students were even going so far as to visit Tibet and study Tibetan Buddhism. There was every sense that the government was becoming less rigid and reactionary.
After March, the unprecedented anti-Tibetan publicity drive, and pre-Olympic crackdowns in general, brought a sharp edge sense of harshness back to the streets--harsh pride, harsh words, harsh hands. Pride, yes, Olympic glory, yes, but at what cost?
What has the summer of 2008 cost China?
Those of us watching warned and warned and warned that "crackdown" is infectious; today the Tibetans, tomorrow Longnan.
Will the authorities continue to treat Beijing with kid-gloves, now that they are more comfortable in boxing gloves?
In April of 2008, one might well have asked, "Will China become a Chinese-style democracy with modern human rights?"
Today, with scenes from Longnan fresh in our minds, it's just as valid to ask, "Will China be able to reverse this descent into the violent past?"
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Watching both CCTV4 and SBS World News Australia coverage of the protests in Thailand I could see just how it is that Chinese people get misled by their government. Western media gets criticized harshly by some Chinese people as evidenced by comments on this blog but I think that Chinese media is atrocious. And what is worse there is very little divergence of opinion in information about the world and about China given to the Chinese people. Whereas in Australia there are many views and opinions available from multiple news sources.
The thing about democracy is that in the west we understand that one person/group/party cannot be right all of the time. Everyone likes to be respected no matter their differences- or opinion/appearance/conduct in the world. Respect for one another and a sense of public spirit are essential features of democracy.
@Timbatu: I can understand that you might feel some hostility to people who do not speak of China in a good light- it is not the people or you personally that is being criticized. It is that a lot of us think that the Chinese government is not being fair to its own people. In Australia when politicians lie to us and try to decieve us the media lets us know. When politicians are corrupt the people are allowed to pass judgement.
One commenter mentions there are many countries with less freedoms than China and why does the western media never mention this? Like it or not the non-Chinese world is NOT obsessed with China. In my case my freedoms allow me to vote, to speak how I like, to form a political party if I choose to, and be respected by my countrymen and women.
Freedom here in Australia allows many flowers to bloom, it allows economic development, personal happiness, freedom from the demands of petty officials, freedom from the need to pay bribes or use guanxi to get things done. Democracy means an equal oppourtunity for all.
China, a country of so many people, has a government that fails the people. It promotes the idea that only that party of people has the ability to govern and that everyone else should 'butt out' and try to live a happy and peaceful life whilst submitting themselves to the bullying big brother. Western societies were a little like that once in the times of despotic monarchs, but through struggle and determination a level of freedom that does not discriminate has been achieved.
China may have the right political and social system in the opinion of some of the young qinfei but it is my experience that those further down the socio-economic ladder who are not trying to join the CCP to 'get one up' on their fellow citizens don't tend to think so. But they are worn down by the state of affairs, by the toughness of life, and free democracy is not a concept that they've any time or oppourtunity to consider... or is it?
China has it's problems as do all other countries. Please don't be over sensitive to 'China bashing' because that is not the necessary intention. People who live in a democracy DO find it difficult to accept that much good can come from a one party state because of our own understanding of history. Try and be a little more accomodating and less sensitive. James Reynolds blogs about China for the BBC- in our media environment we can choose what ideas to take on board and which to not. It is a necessary condition of democracy that the marketplace of ideas is open.
Cheerio
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By the way, before any of you guys react to timbatu, I advise you not to try to persuade him nor try to defend you opinions against him. It will not work. Believe me, I've tried.
Timbatu will NEVER give up an inch of ground to arguments that his opinions are misguided/illogical/libelous. He will call you names, insult you, call you ignorant, or else come up with something that will be banned by the moderators entirely, and then he will whine about western censorship and give out his Is-this-how-western-media-treats-freedom-of-speech? spiel.
Diagnosis: Timbatu will not respect any opinion that clashes directly with his.
Prescription: Just ignore him. There are Chinese posters in this blog who hold different opinions to yours, but are willing to discuss issues in an effective and intelligent manner. React to them, not to this guy.
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Does history favour freedom?
Let's have a look at history then:
In the past, and this for thousands of years, common people everywhere generally didn't have any say as soon as a tribe became a nation. Power was concentrated in the hands of the few, and usually that power was absolute.
Now however, there are many nations where the populace enjoys many freedoms. Like the freedom to say and believe what they want, to live and have the profession they want, the freedom to aspire not be held back because of class, caste or nationality, the freedom to not be locked up and killed without a trial and the freedom to elect their government.
So yu could say that history -so far- is indeed on the side of freedom.
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The Soviet Union collapsed, and Russia was to take on Western democracy and free market. It didn't work; they began to massively struggle, and now are on a corrective path. Putin, agree or disagree with his methods, did (and is doing) this.
I think if we look for an electoral system in China, it is likely to be more similar to the Russian model, or maybe the Japanese. Western democracy does not work everywhere, nor is it desired everywhere.
Tribal, collective, and clan societies are not developed for it. Let's be honest; Western democracy came out of events like the Renaissance and the Enlightenment because our own authoritarian regimes, the kings and emporers, horribly failed the people for centuries. They were about personal gain, glory, and privilege. When we were in the Dark Ages, Chinese leaders and philosophers were already espousing the idea that the benevolant king is the only kind to aspire to. Let's not be so quick to paint their authoritarians with the same brush as ours, any more than insisting any democracy look like ours.
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Many people said words for the CCP government here. They blame everything except the dictatorship and autocracy, they praise everything besides the democracy and the freedom!
I am a common citizen living in China. I've been dying to expect the change of the current situation in China. I don't know when it will come, but I know surely it will come in a certain time.
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#67-72, timbatu.
Shameful glee at your being banned. You should try reading the House Rules first. And don't complain about censorship, just abide by the rules.
And to share my points of view as well. I believe history favors those who struggle to be free. It's human nature to try to surpass all limitations.
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I think this moderator is taking sides. Silencing people must be part of the British brand of democracy.
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"I once interviewed a US Congressmen who compared China to the shark in Jaws".
That just shows how ignorant and bigoted some members of Congress are.
Zhu Bajie
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"Taking Mexico as an example the three major parties, PRI, PAN, and PRD, have been hijacked by crooks."
The two major US parties have been hijacked by crooks. "Democracy" in the US is quite oligarchic and in the last 8 years has become bluntly autocratic.
In China at least I can walk down the street sipping from a bottle of beer. Not so in the USA!
Zhu Bajie
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When I was a boy in the '50s, '60s, '70s, our fearless "democratic" leaders told us Americans "hate the commies, fear the commies, kill the commies." We ended up "liberating" a vast number of brown-skinned people of their lives and limbs in Korea, Vietnam, etc. Then the Cold War was over. Suddenly our "democratic" leaders invented a new Evil Empire: it's "hate the Muslims, fear the Muslims, kill the Muslims." Sure enough, the US and UK are "liberating" a vast number of Iraqis and Afghans of their lives. Now, the "democratic" leaders are coming up with a new cosmic enemy, and soon I expect media outlets will be telling us "hate the Chinese, fear the Chinese, kill the Chinese." I don't want anyone in the UK or the US to start killing my friends and students in the name of fake "freedom" and bogus "democracy." Westerners need to free themselves of blood lust and self-righteousness.
Zhu Bajie
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#78-79
Banned again. The moderators must really be taking their jobs seriously. My advice? Read the RULES.
#74
No their not. Their banning posts because it's against the house rules. And how do you connect that with britsh democracy?
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I fall into the don` bet on it camp, but I must say the other camp has some points. Recently China was hit by a gigantic earthquake, ruining so many lives..but it also showed that economic developement brings personal freedom. The government, for the first time I think, allowed free press to report about the desaster. I like to believe this was their own choice and partly this is true I guess, but was their really any sort of alternative? To "cover" this up inside and outside of China they would need to shut down telecommunication totally. And this would really hurt the economy.
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The USA cannot dictate what will happen to China when their governing elite denies freedoms to Libertarians and Greens.
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By the start of your remarks, History doesn't favour freedom...
I hope it can be turned around...
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To comment #80, Mr. Junkie -
Their 'house rules' say no emails, no web links, but I swear I saw web links posted before. I don't believe 'they take their job seriously'. That is garbage.
And yes, they are taking sides. Try to criticize their beloved lama, if you dare. The 'west' always take sides of a conflict. And, that's the root of all problems.
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it comes down to whether or not you see democracy as a universal value. i believe that it is not, 1000 years later ppl will look back on our time as a time that is no different from any other time. democracy is simply another way of governing, its not privileged over others.
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no where is really totally free in this overpopulated world. e.g. new laws coming to uk in 1st january 09, police can listen in on anyones phonecalls. thats not something being demanded by the people (i think). this is just another freedom being taken away in a democracy. however i dont know wheather this is more freedom than a communist country i dont know. all i know is i am arrested for being so called drunk and disorderly and not even given an interview to exspess my side of the story and considerd guilty and given a fine. i cant smoke in a pub anymore surely thats predujiced against smokers. in a democratic free market capitalist country there should be smoking and non smoking pubs. any way china should just stop buying of americas debt i konw this world mean the collapse of the dollar, so there savings will go but who cares "Just do it".
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