Playing the long game
So the Irish bail-out has been signed off. Ireland has its massive loans.
European ministers have headed for the microphones today to proclaim the euro has been saved.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble described the deal as "a big success for Europe".
Certainly it has bought some time.
Ireland like Greece before it has been given a respite from the unforgiving glare of investors and the bond markets. With the announcement of a permanent mechanism to handle future crises some uncertainty has been removed. Investors could share in losses after 2013 but only if a country is declared insolvent.
The prospect of a more immediate hair-cut has been dispelled.
But here's the question: does this latest bail-out actually address the underlying problems?Take Greece which has been in the lifeboat longer.
At the time of the bail-out its total debts were in the region of 300bn euros. Since then it has drawn on several tranches from the 110bn euro bail-out fund. These are intended as loans so they add to the total debts.
In the meantime the Greek economy is contracting. In the third quarter, GDP actually shrank by 4.7%. And public spending is being reduced further.
Cuts of 9bn euros had been announced earlier. Then it was discovered that the budget deficit was higher than first thought. So the government said it would reduce spending by a further 4bn euros.
While Athens is having some success in reducing its deficit it is struggling to increase tax revenues.
In May, when Greece was bailed out, the rescue package was for three years until 2013.
At the time some asked 'what would happen then?'
The markets did the sums. The conclusion was that Greece might just succeed in reducing its deficit but its debt mountain most probably would have risen.
So Greece would have been given 'time-out' by the bail-out but when it returned to the field of play it would be back where it started.
Scroll forward to yesterday and the Irish bail-out. Slipped in quietly was the news that maturities of the Greek bail-out loan would be extended.
The Greek government had been pushing for it and almost everyone expected it.
Confronting the reality of the giant black hole of debt has been pushed further into the future.
Which brings us to the Irish Republic - and its 85bn euro bail out. 45bn euros comes from the EU including bilateral loans from Britain; 22bn will come from the IMF. 17.5bn euros will have to come from Ireland itself.
In an unforseen twist, the Irish government will have to use billions of taxpayers' money to save itself.
The billions come from the National Pension Reserve Fund. Some are saying that, until recently, it would have been illegal to raid this pension fund to cover current expenditure.
In Ireland's political debate the use of this fund may turn out to be one of the most controversial elements in the whole bail-out package.
There is an optimistic scenario. Ireland has been given the chance - once and for all - to sort out its banks (they will be fewer and leaner in the future).
It has immediate funds to bolster the reserves of its banks. The government will have no immediate funding problems. It will be spared from having to finance its debts at the very steep rates asked by the markets.
It is committed to 15bn euros in cuts and tax increases over the next four years to bring its deficit down.
The EU yesterday granted it another year - until 2015 - to reached the figure of 3% as demanded by the Growth and Stability Pact.
Its unit labour costs have fallen and its exports are growing by 7%. Manufacturing output is also up. The government predicts growth of 2.7% over the next four years. So Ireland is reborn and over the next 7 years repays its loans and begins paring down its accumulated debt.
But there is another scenario. Ireland has ratcheted up its debts already in absorbing the billions of losses from the banking sector.
They are real losses. Property prices are still falling, so rock-bottom may not have been reached.
More homeowners may default. Ireland is now in the process of drawing on another 67 billion euros in loans with lenders - like British Chancellor George Osborne - pointing out yesterday that he expects to get the money back.
So Ireland's debt mountain will grow. Its economy has already shrunk by 15%.
And here's the dilemma.
Ireland is a country of under five million people. It has taken on a massive loan at a rate of 5.8%. How will it afford to pay it back the interest and pay off the earlier debts?
Growth may return to Ireland sooner than Greece, but while Europe's politicians declare the euro has been protected the reality for countries like Greece and Ireland is years of increasing debt and austerity.
Europe's leaders, who have recently added a tone of desperation in their comments about the euro's future, have taken refuge in the long game while hoping that something turns up that enables countries such as Ireland and Greece to reduce their debts.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~11~RS~)
I'm 
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Gavin
Another excellent blog!
As you say, this rescue package, like that for Greece, staves off the immediate problem but does nothing to resolve the underlying problems as to how these economies can grow themselves out of recession and meet their interest payments and pay back the capital. The austerity measures that come with the rescue package are likely to keep Ireland in recession and their debts will continue to increase. As you say, property prices are still falling and negative equity will go on growing. If homeowners decide in increasing numbers to hand the keys back, losses for the banks can only increase.
The Irish Times today believes the future of the Euro is in real question. They wrote
"The response to the Irish banking crisis reflects a wider underwhelming European response to the deepening euro zone crisis. This is the most serious situation the EU has ever faced. The future of the euro is now in real question. The coming week may well determine what that future will be.
If the position of the Iberians deteriorates, much more will need to be done, including radical measures by the ECB which it appears unprepared to try under any circumstances.
If contagion spreads across the Mediterranean to Italy it is not clear that anything done would be sufficient to halt the slide towards the abyss. Sometimes the centre just can’t hold".
Watch this space!
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#1. At 12:10pm on 29 Nov 2010, busby2
The ECB is the poodle of the Germans and the French, placed in Frankfurt and run by Trichet, they will do whatever Merkel and Sarko decide is best for them, and secondly is best for the Euro and their 'ever increasing union' EU.
As you say regarding the rest of the struggling countries 'watch this space', I have a suspicion that whether another country gets a bail-out or not will depend on their exposure to German banks. The German export miracle has largely been accompanied by loans to buy those exports which means its been a double edged sword. Austerity cuts naturally affect imports which was given as a reason for the UK bilateral loan to Ireland, I suspect that Germany will be getting very worried about its export trade, or it should be.
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You are correct, Gavin, there is desperation about the future of the Eurozone.
How much longer is anyone in the international community going to believe that the Eurozone (and Euro) have any future.
There are very few people around the world who even understand what the Euro is!
It appears clear that the international investors are prepared to give the Eurozone the benefit of the doubt, as long as there is money to support it and the political will for it to succeed.
However many commentators are now coming to the conclusion that the Euro has no future. The Eurozone was a dream. Brussels is now becoming irrelevant.
We shall see what the future brings.
My feeling is that the great European experiment has failed.
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The market market do no care for the people of Europe is under order from
the USA to reduce the value of the Euro until reach the same value of the Dollar.
To all the political leader of Europe the only action to stop the above is
a central fiscal policy for all The EU and to the people of Europe this is the only option open to us if we like to have a voice in the world.
John
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Gavin.
It seems that Francois Baroin has hit the nail on the head.
"The absolute determination in Europe - of France and Germany - to save the euro-zone".
So France and Germany do consider themselves the masters of the Euro project and of the EU do they? It raises interesting questions. What was the British 8 billion for? Why does France play the 'our joint achievement' card when we all know that Germany will be coughing up far more? Leaving aside for a moment the logistics, this is the kind of high handed arrogance coming out of Paris that we should all resist. Either it is a community of 27 member states or it is the plaything of Paris, Berlin and Brussels. Hitler and Napoleon both failed to conquer it so we will do the next best thing and buy it?
The French have acquired a habit of late of putting their foot in their collective mouth every time they open it but even so - tactless or what?
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John
Re #4 & #To all the political leader of Europe the only action to stop the above is a central fiscal policy for all The EU and to the people of Europe this is the only option open to us if we like to have a voice in the world."
You are mistaken.
Further centralisation of authority, power and control in the hands of the anti-Democratic EU would be another backward step for EUrope.
It is a supra-National entity that is already far too cumbersome in administrative operation and too stifling in its 'one-size-fits-all' Directives. Providing the EU with top-down oversight of every National Economy & Fiscal policy would make the EU Membership even more vulnerable to the much more flexible, faster acting, ultra responsive competitors around the Globe.
EUrope's voice in the World was far more respected & effective and today would be best left to individual Nations in a much less 'politically' orientated pan-National grouping based on a Trade-Tariff-Communication system such as that which existed with the EEC.
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The forces the euro unleased, in particular the one-size-fits-all monetary policy, akin to the movement of tectonic plates; slow-moving but ultimately irresistible. After one decade of the euro, we have had some tremors, but the real earthquakes are yet to come.
The one-size-fits-all interest rates are too low for Ireland, Spain and some other countries with high domestic inflation and a borrowing culture. And they are too high in savings countries like Germany with low domestic inflation. The effect is to divert savings from the low-inflation countries to the borrowing countries. During an economic upturn, this fuels and magnifies growth in the eurozone periphery and dampens it in the eurozone core. That is why there was a Celtic Tiger boom in the 2000-2008 period during which Germany was (alongside Japan) the slowest growing country in the developed world. During the downturn the unsustainable boom in the periphery turns to massive bust, but the effect is far less pronounced in the eurozone core where the previous years of suppressed demand limit further contraction. Hence Germany and its immediate neighbours have done relatively well in the bust while Ireland, Spain, etc. have been drageed to the brink of bankruptcy.
The important point is that what we have seen in this last economic cycle is not a one-off effect, but is a systemic feature of the eurozone economic cycle. The next economic cycle, and the one after that will see the same pattern of divergence between a periphery where the monetary policy is pro-cycle and so magnifies the boom and bust, and a core where the interest rate policy is counter-cyclical and dampens boom and bust.
It is likely that in 5-6 years the Celtic Tiger will take off again, all be it limited by the high levels of debt inherited from this last economic cycle. At this point, EU officials are likely to herald the euro saved. But when the next economic downturn comes, ~2020 +- 2 years, there will be another bust in the eurozone periphery, this time most likely felt most acutely in Italy, whose domestic inflation has led to badly detoriated competitiveness and whose debt is already 115% of GDP. And Italy will be too big to bail out.
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5. threnodio_II
"Either it is a community of 27 member states or it is the plaything of Paris, Berlin and Brussels."
You put your finger on my own growing doubts. As someone who has been long committed to seeing Scotland take its place in Europe alongside countries of similar size, I have my doubts about the current structure of the EU. A Confederal Union would have huge benefits, but increasingly the current structure simply looks like the UK writ larger.
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Hmmm. The basic problem is, surely, that the political architects of the euro never envisioned a situation like this - or, worse still, the ultimate failure of the euro.
Seems to me there's an awful lot of rule-making 'on the hoof' going on - stretching dates for loan maturity and so on - each agreement being followed by a confident announcement about what a good deal has now been struck and that no other country (Portugal, Spain, Belgium) can possibly be at risk.
Can't do better than to slightly mis-quote Mandy Rice-Davies during the Profumo scandal of the early '60's: 'Well, they would say that, wouldn't they..?'
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"Playing the long game", but what is the "long game"?
German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble described the deal as "a big success for Europe".
Oh, is it?
I found myself wondering why none of EU STUPID PIIGS has challenged these so-called debts? What compromises these so-called debts?
Where is the audit on these debts. If it was your debt, would you not ask for the details? Be darned if I can find the details - not on Greece (where I know Goldman Sachs hid future debt), not on Portugal, not on Spain, not even the UK!
If you ask for details, even doing so carefully with allotment and financial coding, you get dumped with thousands and thousands of diconcerting, off-putting financial details that have essentially nothing to do with CDOs, bundled derivatives, or other nefarious financial instruments that I KNOW MUST BE IN THE DOGPILE.
Francois Baroin said the rescue plan "forms part of the absolute determination in Europe - of France and Germany - to save the euro-zone".
But from what? Why can't I (a member of the public) find the detailed accounting? Is it because I am Canadian?
Certainly it has bought some time.
For what?
For the American investment banks "too big to fail" to get richer while the average citizen carries the load until he drops dead from trying to keep up?
Investors?
Who is investing? Investment banks "too big to fail"? Little folk with their little pension tied up in big investment banks "too big to fail"?
Bond markets are going to head south, especially re sovereign debt where the American investment banks "too big to fail" have used front-end loading to beat the bond system (and of course, other systems). Take a look at the US and you will see municipal bonds tanking. Take a look at Europe and you will see sovereign bonds tanking.
Investors could share in losses after 2013 but only if a country is declared insolvent. Which banks "too big too fail" have a negative default swap i.e. a bet against countries' sovereign debt so that they profiteer if the country fails?
But here's the question: does this latest bail-out actually address the underlying problems?
Absolutely NOT!
Take Greece, actually Goldman Sachs already took Greece, helping it to put off debt into the future with nefarious financial instruments, which I believe could be challenged in Court.
Debt, debt, debt and more debt.
Why is this debt being allowed to stand without a detailed Brussels' audit (I say Brussels for the sake of uniformity and financial acumen)?
Why is the overall situation not being audited?
What caused the debts?
What was the source, what country?
Why isn't the responsible country being taken to Court?
Since when did betting against sovereign debt become legal?
Why is Europe - great intelligent Europe - laying down like a very dumb dog and accepting these debts without complete, comphrensive proof?
What is in the "giant black hole of debt", and how did it get there?
How come Europe was fore-running, doing extremely well, and then zap -there came the American derivative bundles (esentially worthless garbage)that came with an AAA rating? Isn't the imposition of this rating on garbage in itself illegal (The bundles were never opened, never audited?)
Whoever caused the need for this Irish bailout should be taken to Court, sued and therby held accountable.
What if EU countries refused to take a bailout, refused to repay the debt, until the entire debt was audited and proven?
Show me the details!
Is there an "optimistic scenario" because the EU STUPID PIIGS are really proving to be that STUPID!
AND WHILE I'M AT IT, WHERE IS THE EU TAX LEVY ON FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS?
If this bank levy was applied to foreign transactions only, little commercial bank would not be hurt; it's the huge investment banks that transact thousands of foreign transactions per day, directed by their front-end gamgling machines. By the way shouldn't front-end (computer) gambling machines be illegal?
Sometimes, I wonder what exactly is going on with the EU finances, why no one seems to care what caused the debts. Can you tell me what is going on, and why I cannot get a download of debt details?
Is there, could there be, collusion between American banks "too big to fail" and their European associates, partners?
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Remember, £1bn = £1,000,000,000.
I thought it worth mentioning, since the shorthand version seems so innocuous when discussing the debts circulating in the EU and beyond.
Given that there will now be a prolonged period of widespread austerity, where exactly is real growth to be generated? China seems to be experiencing the early symptoms of a 'bubble', as is the bond market.
I'm not optimistic.
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Ireland's debt will continue to grow , and sooner or later the debt will overwhelm their economy. The time has come for the Euro to be consigned to history along with the political ambitions of the EU. There is no place in the EU for sovereign nations, when the ambition of the EU's political elite is to create a European anthill society with all of the population serving the state. The sooner Britain gets out of this dreadful organisation the less likelyhood there is that Britain's economy will end up in the same hole as Ireland's.
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Everyone must suffer for the greatest transfer of wealth upwards in the history of mankind...I would guess most bankers have a picture of Clive on their wall.
Win, Win for bankers who seem to have been obsolved of all responsbility for the crisis that they caused.
Continued process of political handmaidens doing the bidding of the bankers and making sure the people pay off their gambling debts.
Not over yet....more will come and the governments will be less than open about the real costs.
Euro seems to be the rope that everyone is willing to hang from.
Bankers in control....it will all only happen again as the governments would love to have another bubble and do not care that it will only burst again.
As long as banking lobbyist can walk the halls of governments and be appointed to key posts, our money is not safe. Keeping the wealthy wealthy seems to be the primary concern of governments.
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GH: " does this latest bail-out actually address the underlying problems?'
No, and I fail to see how in the absence of systemic reforms and mentality change any cash injections could work.
Either in Greece and Ireland, or in Portugal and Spain.
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Re #8. At 1:50pm on 29 Nov 2010, reincarnation wrote:
5. threnodio_II
"Either it is a community of 27 member states or it is the plaything of Paris, Berlin and Brussels."
You put your finger on my own growing doubts. As someone who has been long committed to seeing Scotland take its place in Europe alongside countries of similar size, I have my doubts about the current structure of the EU. A Confederal Union would have huge benefits, but increasingly the current structure simply looks like the UK writ larger."
All credit to You for 'fessing up'. It has taken time and You are not quite there, but given a few more months of this EU stumbling from one negotiation ploy to another resulting in one more Fiscal crisis after another and You will see the light.
I've long asked on these blog debates how it is the 3 'union' Nations other than England all have Nationalist Parties devoted to the 'out-of-the frying-pan-into-the-fire' foreign policy of instant membership of the Brussels-EU entity?
How, if 1 of 4 States & 1 of 60+ million Citizens isn't suitable could it possibly be politically progressive for the common good to become 1 of 30, 31... and 1 of 525+ million!?
If Scotland, Wales & N.Ireland have a real problem getting heard in London then what cat-in-hell's chance have Edinburgh, Cardiff & Belfast of being even recognised in Brussels!?
My personal suspicion is that much like the Brussels' gravy-train has proven irresistible post-Maastricht to every occupier of No.10 (inc. Cameron & Clegg), so, the 3 Nationalist Party Leaderships cannot get the buzz of excitement out of their heads as they see the lucrative 'big-business'/'big-government' EU projects lining up for their signatures. Imagine You are Alex Salmond and You walk into the Brussels' Parliament and everybody says, "Who?"
And then You are Alex Salmond, Prime/First Minister of newly independent, & new member of the expanded EU and he enters the same building...
Oooh, like the rest, it sends a grandiose shiver of aggrandisement down his spine! He comes back to Edinburgh and declares, "I've been speaking with my colleagues from Madrid, Berlin, Paris, Rome... and WE...." - - come on, he's only human - - 'look at me, look at me!' his conscience squeals. Why should he give a stuff about it being, "..like the UK writ larger"?
All that said, it really should be entirely up to the individual respective Populations of those 4 UK Union nations to decide their political futures vis-a-vis EUrope etc.
Perhaps You could join Your voice with those of us across all 4 who for starters would just really like to enjoy that old fashioned political Right of a Vote at a Ballot box on Self-Determination concerning the membership of the UK & the EU.
I don't predict the result for any of the 4: Though I would prefer withdrawal for England I believe a Referendum will be a lot closer than many seem to think.
Either way, it would be good for Democracy in the UK and in the EU were English, Scottish, Welsh & Irish Citizens actually invited to make their choices known.
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Its estimated that the interest alone on this mickey mouse money will be atleast 20% of Irelands future gdp.Thats even before the money can be scrapped together to pay off the debt.Sorry Ireland but you have been sold down the river into financial slavery.Do not fear though as soon you will be amongst the majority group in Europe.A better deal would have been leaving you as you were reducing your deficit in your own austerity ways.You were looking damn good and well on your way to sorting out your own problems without E.U interference but now you are slaves to Merckel and Sarkosy who on top of everything else want your pensions and your future too.
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15. cool_brush_work
"Perhaps You could join Your voice with those of us across all 4 who for starters would just really like to enjoy that old fashioned political Right of a Vote at a Ballot box on Self-Determination concerning the membership of the UK & the EU."
I've supported referenda on Scottish fiscal autonomy/independence and membership of the EU for a long time - even though I thought I'd be on the losing side of both!
Instead of a meaningful referendum, we get one on AV (trying to add yet another version of voting to the 4 we already have!)
A "write-in" campaign on the AV form voting for what an actual democracy would have allowed would be a good start!
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Peevedoff
You'll find that the UK's interest service payments constitute a similar proportion of GDP, thanks largely to the former Iron Chancellor, Prudence himself..the man who has impoverished our children!
Anyway, enough of that. For Ireland the future is now quite worrying. Provided that decent growth returns then the situation is retrievable...just. Even then the prospect for years of personal and public austerity loom with high personal taxation and low public spending. This can be borne to certain extent but if the Irish people see the corrupt clique of bankers and politicians who did more than their fair share to create mess get away scot free...there will be a terrible political price to pay.
It might be better all-round if folk accepted the inevitable when it comes to the Euro. It simply won't work in its current form and the alternative proposed in Brussels seems like an unacceptable growth of the democracy-free oligarchy that has been threatened for some time. There is an urgent need to think laterally to dismantle the unsustainable components of the Euro in an orderly fashion, the share the pain of the asset write-downs between the taxpayer and the bondholders and move on. The alternative is something that will beggar Europe over the next three years and, even if collapse can be avoided, it will simply postpone the implosion by another decade.
PS: I closed my savings account with Santander today. My reasoning being that if Portugal comes under pressure, the Spanish banks are hugely exposed on top of their domestic woes and there could be casualties. UK customers of Santander are of course covered by the Deposit Protection Scheme provided a) the UK government can actually afford it and b) you're happy to wait a year to get your money back. The unofficially sanctioned hike in inflation will wipe out any further benefit in saving cash so I might as well spend the money of something tangible before it declines in value!
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Re #17. At 4:28pm on 29 Nov 2010, reincarnation wrote:
"Instead of a meaningful referendum, we get one on AV (trying to add yet another version of voting to the 4 we already have!)
A "write-in" campaign on the AV form voting for what an actual democracy would have allowed would be a good start!"
Totally agree.
Unfortunately, now living abroad I suspect I'll not get any say at all. Mind You, I'm not so sure that isn't entirely proper: Afterall, it is my adult children & their children who're residing in England and it is their future Nation whereas I've done my bit.
Then again, as I've done my bit, paid my taxes, & retained my Nationality perhaps I do have a right to exercise my Vote on England/UK's future?
Hmm, knotty issue ahead!
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All the PIIGS countries should be ashamed. You waste
money and then expect other euro countries to help you.
This is not fair, countries that have been follwoing good
fiscal policies are helping the irresponsible countries.
This is the end of euro, I hope.
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It is interesting to follow how most of the comments here are dealing with the political pattern, while the article is taking its point of departure in economy.
Germany is among the few EU countries with growth and is also the big payer. It is likely to exercise increasing influence on the decisions made in other EU-capitals, not least such where governments are in depth troubles.
No one here apparently read mores anything else than the national press. Die Zeit predicts that this pattern will prevail by the coming summit. The interesting question is, what the rest of the Union will react with, faced with this perspective. And perhaps also how press and politicians will explain the outcome.
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Threnodio II asks #6 "so what's the UK £8bn for?" It's to cover the exposure of UK banks - and nought else. You could say the same about Germany's contribution, too - but the smaller, less exposed, Euro countries must genuinely be in there to support the Euro. (Or is it because Germany and France told them to be ? ..... ;-))
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My understanding is that the Irish debt repayment period is ten years, and that no repayments are required during the first three years. I suppose the thinking is that this should give Ireland the opportunity to regain some equilibrium - some growth even (given their healthy current rate) - before they start to pay off the debt. But which debtor gets paid first?
I understand also (report of Christine Lagarde) that the Greek debt may be recast in similar terms.
Do the "untouchables" of the markets know this and have they factored it into their views on the Euro?
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22. frenchderek
"It's to cover the exposure of UK banks - and nought else."
As are the bilateral deals offered by Sweden and Denmark.
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#15. At 3:04pm on 29 Nov 2010, cool_brush_work
#8. At 1:50pm on 29 Nov 2010, reincarnation
Well gentlemen, I have rehearsed my view on the British union many times but briefly, I see it as a glorious anachronism - and I am writing as an Englishman albeit an ex-pat. The devolution measures seem to me more like work in progress than a done deal. From the Scots point of view, I find the way in which the Treasury is able to manipulate the 'British' national income, rarely to Scotland's advantage, obtuse. From the English point of view, the ongoing situation where England is the only country without it's own separate nation assembly will simply fuel the fires of English nationalism - not a pretty prospect. My inclination would be to start a process leading to a referendum soon so that our friends north of the border can make up their own minds. However, when you have a coalition in London of one party which claims to be unionist but is actually an English party that has been all but wiped out in Scotland and another which has a vested but different political interest in Scotland, I would not hold my breath.
However, we are on the Euroblog and it is the interplay between the two unions which interests me. Living as I now do in a country with a mere 10 million people and seeing the amount of progress which is being made as a result of membership, I cannot but enthuse about the manifest economic advantages. In many way, it is a bit like Germany some time back. They saw the European project as a guarantee that there would never again have to deal with a National Socialist situation. Well here in the east,I am sure many see it as their guarantee of no return to communism.
But there is growing scepticism and it is precisely for the reason I posted earlier - the perception that 'the big boys' are hell bent on running the show. I am with reincarnation on this. A group of like minded states coexisting and cooperating in a framework of confederation. I am also on record as a EU enthusiast but that is not to say that I like the direction in which it is headed. The centralising tendency needs to be reversed if small countries like Scotland and Hungary are to be heard.
We should make not mistake either about what is going on here. We have South Stream and possibly Nabucco coming through here. Hungary is sitting on one of the richest sources of renewable geothermal energy on the land mass and I am reliably informed that that significant new reserves are now accessible in the North Sea which will kill off the idea that it is a resource nearing the end of its life. Scotland is of course at the cutting edge of renewable energy, on the verge of becoming a net exporter. Make no mistake, energy resource are the new gold and those of us with access to them will begin to hold the whip hand as against densely populated low resourced countries. They can play the financial muscle card now but, longer term, they bully the little guys at their peril.
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#20 - JP
Massive generalisation and very unfair to the Irish. You can accuse them of failure in bank oversight maybe but massive public spending was certainly not on their sin list. With the wisdom of hindsight, you could argue that public sector wages and the benefits system were too generous but that becomes apparent only after the bubble burst. Why did the bubble form in the first place? No point in asking Dublin. Did they set interest rates at such a generously low level? I don't think so. Ask the bright boys in Frankfurt.
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It was no long a go when Ireland's economy were at the bottom, but it raised very fast. Why can't it raise again. Of course it can and those who want Euro to fail will it wont. That's the dollar-pound party.
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#22 - frenchderek
All the eurozone countries are in there in proportion to their overall commitment to the ECB but you are quite right, the UK is not a registered charity - they are watching their own backside. But in the context of my earlier point, it was a valid question. There was no compulsion to participate
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If Euro would go down, it means that the lousy loaning economic countries wins and the good economy keepers loose. Is that the goal here? That the lousy wont pay their debts. And the good guys loose.
No, the deal here is that Dollar wants to win and they want to do it with Euros cost. Euro is much better economy and currency than dollar: 1 Euro = 1.3211 U.S. dollars. Dollar deserves to loose, not Euro.
Now dollar is printing cash every day. That is just sick. Euro must do everything against the dollar it can. We european tax payers do not want to pay dollars bills.
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Pound is so deep with Irish banks that it will go down before Euro. Euro will survive and Pound should be happy with it. And all english people. Nobody wants long depression.
BTW it grows people mentally when kings and princesses pictures are no more in bills and coins. Grows them more strong. Pound should join Euro. Then we would have have only one enemy, Yuan.
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Thought this PRESS/MEDIA FREEDOM of EXPRESSION measurement was worth wider circulation:
Press Freedom Index 2010
Europe falls from its pedestal
“We must salute the engines of press freedom, with Finland, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland at their head."
“It is disturbing to see several European Union member countries continuing to fall in the index. If it does not pull itself together, the European Union risks losing its position as world leader in respect for human rights. And if that were to happen, how could it be convincing when it asked authoritarian regimes to make improvements? There is an urgent need for the European countries to recover their exemplary status."
European Union loses its leadership status
"Reporters Without Borders has repeatedly expressed its concern about the deteriorating press freedom situation in the European Union and the 2010 index confirms this trend. Thirteen of the EU’s 27 members are in the top 20 but some of the other 14 are very low in the ranking. Italy is 49th, Romania is 52nd and Greece and Bulgaria are tied at 70th. The European Union is not a homogenous whole as regards media freedom. On the contrary, the gap between good and bad performers continues to widen.
There has been no progress in several countries where Reporters Without Borders pointed out problems. They include, above all, France and Italy, where events of the past year – violation of the protection of journalists’ sources, the continuing concentration of media ownership, displays of contempt and impatience on the part of government officials towards journalists and their work, and judicial summonses – have confirmed their inability to reverse this trend."
Northern Europe still at the top
"Several countries share first place in the index again. This year it is Finland, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. They have all previously held this honour since the index was created in 2002. Norway and Iceland have always been among the countries sharing first position except in 2006 (Norway) and 2009 (Iceland). These six countries set an example in the way they respect journalists and news media and protect them from judicial abuse."
Rank Country Note
1 Finland
- Iceland
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Sweden
- Switzerland
7 Austria
8 New Zealand
9 Estonia
- Ireland
11 Denmark
- Japan
- Lithuania
14 Belgium
- Luxembourg
- Malta
17 Germany
18 Australia
19 United Kingdom
20 United States of America
21 Canada
- Namibia
23 Hungary
- Czech Republic
32 Poland
38 South Africa
39 Spain
40 Portugal
44 France
46 Slovenia
49 Italy
52 Romania
61 Cyprus (North)
62 Croatia
70 Benin
- Bulgaria
- Comoros
- Greece
- Kenya
75 Moldova
86 Israel (Israeli territory)
99 Georgia
122 India
138 Turkey
140 Russia
171 China
177 North Korea
178 Eritrea
Now call me old fashioned if You like, but it does seem to me there are a few too many of the much vaunted EU Membership inc. such as France, Greece, Spain who really need to address this issue of Press Freedom because their positions in this League Table are a DISGRACE to their Citizens & bring DISCREDIT to the EU!
This 2010 report compiled by 'Reporters Without Frontiers' begs the question: What is the purpose of the Lisbon Treaty and its attachment the EUropean Human Rights claims when many of the EU27 cannot even get their own Governments to abide by the freedoms it supposedly guarantees?
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25. threnodio_II
"Scotland is of course at the cutting edge of renewable energy, on the verge of becoming a net exporter."
A little bit further away than the "verge", I'm afraid. By 2020, we should be producing 80% of our energy from renewables. It'll take till 2025 to be exporting it.
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#8. At 1:50pm on 29 Nov 2010, reincarnation
Well said, and its nice to hear a Scot speaking sense for once and being a canny Scot, keep it up and I hope some of your fellow countrymen can learn by it. Better the devil you know than !!!!! and by no means are the English the devil !!!!
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re: 31 cool_brush_work:
A quick glance at the press freedoms ranking map at the following wikipedia link leaves me wondering about your data or the data on the map. Any thoughts about the apparent dixcrepancies?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Reporters_Without_Borders_2009_Press_Freedom_Rankings_Map.svg
If the link doesn't work or is removed by the mods, I used the following search string on bing to get to it:
press media freedom of expression
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34. At 8:18pm on 29 Nov 2010, d_m wrote:
re: 31 cool_brush_work: Any thoughts about the apparent dixcrepancies? "
No practical thoughts come to mind other than when I went to the Wiki-link it was for 2009.
My reference is taken direct from the Press Freedom Index for 2010.
That is the 9th annual Listing by the 'Reporters Without Frontiers'.
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"But here's the question: does this latest bail-out actually address the underlying problems?Take Greece which has been in the lifeboat longer."
The Euro`s future is sealed already and there is no way out.
What we are experiencing now is nothing but the foreplay.
Those small nations are saved from collapse (for now) with the exponentially greater possibilities for huge national economies like Germany, Great Britain or France to make debt in order to keep the system of debt expansion running.
Sad state of the matter is that even nations like Germany are still increasing their national public debt every single year, despite all austerity measures.
Others aren`t even really trying to reduce debt.
But the end is in sight:
Italy will collapse within the next 2 decades and all the money wasted so far is childs-play compared to this. Not even the combined financial power of the great European economies will be able to save a bankrupted economy that big.
It will be the last nail on the coffin for the Euro.
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@5 threnodio_II
"So France and Germany do consider themselves the masters of the Euro project and of the EU do they? It raises interesting questions. What was the British 8 billion for? Why does France play the 'our joint achievement' card when we all know that Germany will be coughing up far more?"
Well, the Euro was the price for reunification. A price demanded from France. Go figure.
The sad reality is that the DM was gaining strength compared to other currencies like the Franc already, basically establishing a dependance in exchange rates even prior to 1990. France feared that this effect might even increase after reunification, leaving the European continent dominated by DM exchange rates (Great Britain didn`t quite have that problem).
Therefore, they wanted the Euro much much earlier than planned.
Fortunately, the "wwII guilt card for increased integration" era is coming to an end.
Not that I am against a nice and fair union between rich or well developing nations. But I certainly don`t need this money sucking black hole.
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#36 - DurstigerMann
It just depends on when it is going to happen. Maybe sooner than you think - while Berlusconi is still around to play the rescuing hero. And why? Because he and Vladimir Putin are as thick as thieves and Russia is just gagging for somewhere to dump some of that gas revenue. They would like nothing better than to steal a march on the Chinese, the Eurozone et al. They offered to bail out Greece - remember? Why do you think the Americans are so worried about the relationship?
Spain is the big question mark. If Spain goes down, the bailout will decimate the ECB membership. After that, everything is up for grabs. Auction sale with the prize going to the lowest bidder. Of course you will still have the Euro puppet but someone else will be pulling the strings.
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Re #36. At 8:57pm on 29 Nov 2010, DurstigerMann wrote:
"But the end is in sight:
Italy will collapse within the next 2 decades and all the money wasted so far is childs-play compared to this. Not even the combined financial power of the great European economies will be able to save a bankrupted economy that big."
I sincerely hope that is a mistype! "***within the next 2 decades***"!
Surely the EUro & EU are doomed within a decade.
I expect new versions to arise with the orginal Maastricht political-construct splitting up so an EU of the original 6 (minus Italy) plus a few very Economically healthy tack-ons, like Finland & Sweden (possibly Poland & Spain) will form an inner, tight-knit, one-size-fits-all EUropean core led from allegedly Brussels and in practise entirely functioning at the behest of Germany.
A second tier of Nations that aspire to the first-rank, but just don't have the Economies to achieve it: Possibly led by the UK (if it still exists) & inc. Ireland-Greece-Portugal-Denmark-Czech-Slovak-Hungary-Italy-Romania etc...
3rd tier, HOPEFULLY led by England: There doesn't have to be any other State at all - - just set English people free - - honestly, we'll do our best to cope without the rest and no offence meant to anyone!
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Now that we have seen the Irish "rescue package", I was wondering which economy will recover first: Ireland or Iceland. And which economy is in better shape today?
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33. Buzet23
I think you misunderstand. Dominance by a powerful centre is exactly the problem, and staying tied to London will continue to damage Scotland.
You don't see Denmark desperate to fall back under Swedish control!
I had hoped to see the EU as a partnership of equals (though with obvious differences of scale). Unfortunately, the Franco-German partnership simply replicates the UK's distortion of power.
No matter. I'll be just as happy with the same status as Norway for Scotland.
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#41. At 9:57pm on 29 Nov 2010, reincarnation,
I was mainly referring to the concept of a confederation as that is a concept I have long supported, and should Scotland wish to be part of such with England then fine as the Scots MP's who have tried their best to destroy England will no longer be able to. For far too long England has suffered in the UK and an independence will be welcome to many, I think many Scots are intentionally blind as to where the dominance has been, certainly for 13 years. Not only did Scots dominate the ministerial positions but for some strange reason whenever there is a strike the union rep seems almost always to be a Scot.
Still when the EU declines or England leave, it will be for the canny Scots to make a decision as to whether be a really small unimportant fish in a large EU pond or a part of a confederation.
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42. Buzet23
OK. We both see confederation (as opposed to federation) as a potential model for international co-operation. That's good.
A restructuring of the asymmetric UK into a confederal structure might be adequate, though the Brits?/English? might object to their ambitions to fight foreign wars being stymied.
If the EU can't adjust to a confederal structure, then it may have difficulties in surviving.
I'm not sure how England will cope, but Scotland has other options. As a resource based economy, we could follow Norway's example. A North Atlantic economic zone might be an interesting development.
You are welcome to the resources in La Manche.
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It's all pretty academic now. Last week marked a turning point in the average Irish person's attitude from one of solely bearing the burden to one of why should we bail out the bond holders in originally private banks? It's only a matter of months now before we default or "restructure our debts". Rightly or wrongly most people here believe the next 10 years will be better if we default than if we struggle to cover the losses of private investors. Collectively we are sufficiently unpredictable to decide to try the nuclear option and see what the French and Germans do. Thanks for the 7 billion by the way.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
I feel sorry for the Irish people for baring the brunt of this problem, but only so far. One delusion that has not been addressed here is that the "Celtic tiger" was heavily subsidised by EU money from the off. Ireland being the largest net recipient of EU funds for about 20 years. I used to have numerous debates with my Irish friends about how the "Celtic tiger" was not just down to the intelligence and industry of the Irish, as they claimed, but also due to the huge sums of money the EU had injected in the Irish Project. Like all investments, it depends on how effectively that investment is spent. I think the answer, at this current point is... er OK.. well, Ireland has certainly developed from a "developing" EU economy to a developed one, but they are suffering the excesses. They are also suffering from the Irish governments spinelessness in not tackling their inflationary spending. Although you could argue if they had raised taxes as they should, during the boom, the Irish people would never have voted for them again!
In my opinion, what Ireland et al are experiencing is the result of poor fiscal management which is although managed by the governments and banks, was also enthusiastically embraced, if not ignored by, the people. If Germany were to impose its stricter fiscal discipline on the less so I would actually see that as a success for the Euro zone. If they don't Germany and the Northern EU states that subsidise the (south) EU may well just go it alone, which I think a better idea than the fudge we have at the moment.
To address Reincarnations comments. I have long been bemused by the SNPs attempts to try and give credence to their core support, which they know comes from the small minded and zenophobic. Their stance on the EU is the most stunning example. Scotland HAS ALWAYS had more to lose wrt to political influence in the EU than gain from independence. The best argument for Scottish independence is greater autonomy of decisions and the removal of its traditional excuse for underperforming. As Scotland has preferential voting rights in the UK, almost twice the representation per head of population, as part of the UK the people of Scotland have effectively been over "represented" in the EU since the beginning. Independence will, effectively, halve Scotland's representation as, due to the act of union, Scotland has one MP per every 40,000 population where as the rest of the UK has 1 MP for every 70,000. Why do you think the Tories are so keen on electoral reform to 1 MP for every 80,000 across the board and Labour are keen to keep the status quo in Scotland?
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45. reincarnation
I wonder if using "debt repudiation" offended the mods?
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45. reincarnation
Or perhaps the suggestion that Ireland was strong enough as a society to defy the markets?
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@39 cool_brush_work
"I sincerely hope that is a mistype! "***within the next 2 decades***"!"
I am quite careful with the date here.
Personally, I see italy public debt becoming unsustainable within the next economic cyle, in 2020 at the lastest.
Italy is doomed for sure, I see no light at the end of the tunnle.
GB, Germany and maybe even France might be able to escape the cycle of debt expansion, even though drastic measures need to be taken.
The system of debt expansion, massively propagated by economists over the last few decades, has proven to be a dead end and we need to fix this issue before we run into a dead end like Italy or the USA.
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Re #41. At 9:57pm on 29 Nov 2010, reincarnation writes:
33. Buzet23
"You don't see Denmark desperate to fall back under Swedish control!"
Or vice versa as in the Danish hegemony of the Baltic & Northern Europe circa 11th to 14th centuries!
Danish forces raided the Finnish and Estonian coastline several times in the 12th & 13th centuries and in the period it was the Danish Archbishop of Lund who exercised Roman Catholic influence among the relatively newly converted Swedes & pagan lands reaching as far as Karelia where they clashed with the Kingdom of Novgorod (west Russia).
History is a funny old thing.
Jukka-R is convinced Karelia is all Finn and I would support the idea, but as we look back over centuries... my, my ... it is a clouded History!
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46. happytravelling
"Scotland has one MP per every 40,000 population where as the rest of the UK has 1 MP for every 70,000."
You are living in the past. Since 2005, the average Scottish electorate per constituency is precisely the same as England's.
Even then, you clearly misunderstand the effect of smaller constituency size in the smaller nations of the UK. Even if all Scottish/Welsh/NI MPs combined to vote in favour of policies that benefited the devolved nations, they would still be easily outvoted by MPs representing English constituencies, if they disagreed.
I quite understand the determination of those from England to portray themselves as victims of these nasty Celts. It must be disturbing to find that (as with the Empire) not everyone finds your rule benevolent. Still a measure of reality should inform your views.
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50. cool_brush_work
"History is a funny old thing."
History is the record of the past - interpreted through our own eyes.
Politics is our vision of what can be - interpreted through our own eyes.
Political parties, on the other hand, are simply about career politicians gaining power.
Citizens (I know that is an alien concept in English constitutional law, as opposed to Scotland) can still aim to restore power to "we the people". Seems a reasonable ambition to me.
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DTMann
"..2 decades.." is 2030 as the latest date!
I'm agreeing with Your 2020 latest plus, I've nod moubt Germany & G.B. will avoid any suc problems: The first because it is an Economic giant compared to all EUrope, and the latter because it is not tied to EUrope in the manner that almost the entire 27 are hanging on to Brussels' coat-tails.
As for France! PLEASE! It's an Economic-Fiscal basket-case even as we write, but You're probably correct it will avoid melt-down if only because Berlin will just love to have Paris bowing & scraping in public.
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Re 352. At 00:55am on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation wrote:
"50. cool_brush_work
"History is a funny old thing."
History is the record of the past - interpreted through our own eyes.
Politics is our vision of what can be - interpreted through our own eyes.
Political parties, on the other hand, are simply about career politicians gaining power.
Citizens (I know that is an alien concept in English constitutional law, as opposed to Scotland) can still aim to restore power to "we the people". Seems a reasonable ambition to me."
Hope, You weren't expecting any disagreement from me!?
Though I think, and when You pause for thought, the idea of the English Citizens being meek & mild isn't how it happens across the centuries - - it is just that for sure the English are tired of everyone else finding fault with them - - You go Your own way & the very best of luck to You, but don't be thinking the English will miss You for a second of any day either politically, economically or even militarily!
It is the English didn't campaign for an end to the UK, it is the English didn't see the point of devolved governments, it is the English didn't really give sh## about the rights & wrongs of the past United Kingdom - - and it will be the English will just carry straight on regardless of everybody else because basically, simply, without a shadow of a doubt... WE CAN & WE WILL. You've all got some chip-on-your-shoulder something-to-prove mentality, whereas in all honesty the English just don't have any of those hang-ups - - You ALL think England has got-it-coming, but the English aren't even aware they did anything wrong and they've never expected anything from any of the 3 except exactly the jaundiced attitudes WE get now.
The break-up of the UK is IMO a very good thing: It is a really very successful institution that has run its course. That said, the average Englishman will just say, 'So what!?' And then get on with his/her life and let's face it the Scots, Welsh & even most Northern Irish aren't going to be demanding passports at the borders, at least not if they ever want to get to see France & mainland Europe again without a 2 hour minimum queue!
Cheers.
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54. cool_brush_work
"the average Englishman will just say, 'So what!?'"
He (and his wife) will indeed say that. Which makes it all the more strange that UK/English politicians are so determined against the breakup of the UK. A number of polls have suggested that the English (a very reasonable people, like most others) have no particular objection to other parts of the UK leaving.
It's an interesting phenomenon that the Brits have been so concerned to keep Scotland (or at least its resources) within the UK that they have constructed an entirely false economic narrative that makes Scotland appear an economic supplicant within the UK.
I'm sure that you are aware of the political processes which resulted in the resources within Scotland's waters being labelled as belonging to a fictional region of "Ex-Regio". If you didn't, its easily found online.
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Am I mistaken that the Irish parliament has yet to vote on the EU/IMF bailout deal ? Is there not a slim possibility that it might be voted out .
In the new year there will be Irish general elections , the present government is likely to lose heavily . The new government might throw out the EU bailout agreement ; they would most likely have the people behind them . It is my guess that Ireland is digging itself into a pit from which it can never escape , without a default . Better they do it now rather than later .
I have read here blame being cast upon the PIIGS countries for running up such debts . The blame should fall on the EU , that accepted them into the Euro , when they were already very heavily in debt . Joining the Euro has been used a way of (psycologicaly) offloading their debts under the umbrella of the EU .
A number of contributors here feel that it would be better to bite the bullet and end the Euro now , rather than fight on until member states default one by one , grinding the Euro to a halt .
#4 John
"A central fiscal policy for all the EU"
You can only have a central fiscal policy for all the EU when the EU becomes a single nation state , with a government that decrees the fiscal policy for all 27 member states .
The completion of the planned ever closer union would bring with it all the outstanding debts of all the member states . Brussels would be burdened with it all . The fiscal situation in the EU would not be greatly altered ; but the more prosperous countries like Germany , Holland , Sweden , would end up making major contributions to the debt and forever supporting the Mediterranean countries and Ireland . There would be no benefit to Germany to lend countries money so that they could buy German goods .
IMO the German people have already been pushed to the limit by their government contributing to the enormous bailout fund . Apart from the EU being a major Franco/German construct , Germany could be the first to say enough is enough and leave the EU . Even if Germany threatened to leave , the EU would be on the point of collapse .
The EU may comprise a major land mass , but , as yet , I do not see the EU as a major political power in the world .
Perhaps the major sticking point is the vast number of people employed on the "Gravy Train" , surely one of the principal considerations , in either the demise of the Euro or the EU or even a change of course for the EU to become a Conferderation of Nation States , effectively return to the EEC , wipe out Maastricht --- to --- Lisbon treaties , The ECJ , ECHR , and let every country decide which imposed EU laws to keep or dismiss .
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--✄-- Ireland is a country of under five million people. It has taken on a massive loan at a rate of 5.8%. How will it afford to pay it back the interest and pay off the earlier debts? --✄--
Maybe this can help the Irish to find the solution to such an impact
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#43. At 11:07pm on 29 Nov 2010, reincarnation
Have you forgotten at least 10% plus of the Northern North sea is English owned and the whole of the Southern North sea is English owned, as far as the UK continental shelf is concerned and the Southern part has many gas fields.
On an aside, concerning the past 27 years of Scottish economic figures there have been analyses that show that if Scotland had been independent and in control of it's oil resources it would have been in serious deficit as it's expenditure exceeded all it's revenue. Assuming that to be true, this means England has been subsidising Scotland and would save that money on Independence.
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55. At 02:03am on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation wrote:
54. cool_brush_work
"the average Englishman will just say, 'So what!?'"
He (and his wife) will indeed say that. Which makes it all the more strange that UK/English politicians are so determined against the breakup of the UK. A number of polls have suggested that the English (a very reasonable people, like most others) have no particular objection to other parts of the UK leaving.
It's an interesting phenomenon that the Brits have been so concerned to keep Scotland (or at least its resources) within the UK that they have constructed an entirely false economic narrative that makes Scotland appear an economic supplicant within the UK.
I'm sure that you are aware of the political processes which resulted in the resources within Scotland's waters being labelled as belonging to a fictional region of "Ex-Regio". If you didn't, its easily found online."
It is the avaricious fingers-in-the-EU-pie and the attraction of international glad-handing that has led numerous UK Political elite to foist the membership of the post-Maastricht political-construct on the British & most especially the English.
Cameron-Clegg and their 'Referendum Lock' etc. are playing to the public galleries: Whilst the 'lock' should it enter the Statute will be of interest it will almost certainly contain enough 'get-out' clauses to enable any average PM to wangle their way out of going to the UK Citizenry on any real EU issue/s.
My hope for the future is that EU-Brussels overplays its hand and seeks Judicial authority via the ECJ for overturning the right to Referendum or to deny the result of a Referendum whether in the UK or another member State: At that point all bets are off as to how Citizens will react to the direct negation of their Democratic Vote.
Yes, I'm loosely familiar with the Scotland economy politicking at Westminster - - it's been 300+ years - - the 'water', 'oil', 'gas' etc. are just modern versions. 'Vested interests' will always play a key role: If at some stage soon it becomes apparent 'big-business/big-Government' can make more profit outside than inside the UK then Scotland's Edinburgh political leadership will be given the nod. Alex Salmond or some such reptilian will leap at the chance of bestriding the EU-Brussels stage as a 'leader' in his own right & all the minions will leap with him for the largesse to come. In return Scotland's Citizens will get a brand new set of 'comptrollers' travelling form the continent instead of from London.
About the only thing France ever got right: 'Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!'
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59. At 09:12am on 30 Nov 2010, Buzet23 wrote:
"""...10% plus of the Northern North sea .....and the whole of the Southern North sea is English owned... and the Southern part has many gas fields."""
"""...analyses that show that if Scotland had been independent and in control of it's oil resources it would have been in serious deficit as it's expenditure exceeded all it's revenue."""
I do not understand. Does that mean that the specific oil fields in North Sea are running at negative margins? Why exploit them then? And how Norwegians do make a lot of profit when they have to dig in greater depths than the British because of their local sea bottom morphology? It just does not make sense unless I have lost a detail or two.
31. At 7:32pm on 29 Nov 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
"""Thought this PRESS/MEDIA FREEDOM of EXPRESSION measurement was worth wider circulation:"""
Yes, such lists are always an interesting read.
Press Freedom Index 2010
"""Reporters Without Borders has repeatedly expressed its concern about the deteriorating press freedom situation in the European Union and the 2010 index confirms this trend. Thirteen of the EU’s 27 members are in the top 20 but some of the other 14 are very low in the ranking. Italy is 49th, Romania is 52nd and Greece and Bulgaria are tied at 70th. The European Union is not a homogenous whole as regards media freedom. On the contrary, the gap between good and bad performers continues to widen."""
"""There has been no progress in several countries where Reporters Without Borders pointed out problems. They include, above all, France and Italy, where events of the past year – violation of the protection of journalists’ sources, the continuing concentration of media ownership, displays of contempt and impatience on the part of government officials towards journalists and their work, and judicial summonses – have confirmed their inability to reverse this trend."""
Well that says it all dear CBW : the survey measures mainly 2 things: 1° concentration of media & 2) judicial interference in journalistic work
Well that is all about? Protect from judicial abuse? What if in these countries all media pluralist or not simply does not challenges the overulling establishment because simply there is no need to do so as long as the economy goes ok? In other countries journalists seem to try to scratch deeper and as such fall victims of judicial attacks and such.
Rank Country Note
"""1 Finland
- Iceland
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Sweden
- Switzerland
7 Austria
8 New Zealand
9 Estonia
- Ireland
11 Denmark
- Japan"""
Remark 1: Most of them are boring countries where nothing happens. Most of them, out of hot geopolitical games, many small meaningless in geopolitical sense countries left tranquile to prosper in their corners, I also see the world's bankers... why would journalists there scratch deeper? When things go well everyone is complacent. As such no need for extra work, no need to enervate the leadership. What is interesting though is that in the list we see the failed Ireland and Iceland and one wonders... if journalism is relatively free of interference and pluralistic there (and I do not have a reason to doubt the survey there) how come all those years of crazy indebtment none of them ever hit the alarm bell. I would advice in those cases the editors of that list to go back and search again.
"""- Lithuania 14 Belgium - Luxembourg - Malta 17 Germany 18 Australia 19 United Kingdom"""
No comments. For UK I won't say anything. I am writing here at BBC (hehehe... we say "you need to praise sometimes your house or the roof will fall on your head"). But wait... right after UK there comes USA??? If USA is at 20, UK must be not just to n°1... no to 0... well no... to....to -20 or something!
"""20 United States of America"""
"""21 Canada"""
Sorry, Canada below? A yes, this was on journalists, it was not on doctors doing research on the Gulf War I syndrome... cos last time I saw it they were all legally pursued losing their jobs and hunted down finding refuge to Canada where they published only partial research (lacking ressources) on that "weird illness". Thus an exemplary positin for journalists in a country where scientists are hunted down for wishing to conduct medical research dealing with the suffering of thousands of people.
"""23 Hungary - Czech Republic 32 Poland 38 South Africa 39 Spain 40 Portugal"""
Nothing to say
"""44 France 46 Slovenia 49 Italy 52 Romania 61 Cyprus (North) 62 Croatia
70 Benin - Bulgaria - Comoros - Greece - Kenya 75 Moldova """
So what?
"""Now call me old fashioned if You like, but it does seem to me there are a few too many of the much vaunted EU Membership inc. such as France, Greece, Spain who really need to address this issue of Press Freedom because their positions in this League Table are a DISGRACE to their Citizens & bring DISCREDIT to the EU!"""
What are you arguing there CBW? The problem of these countries is mostly a problem of concentration of major media press in the hands of a few individuals of joined interests. The biggest example are Italy and Greece and France follows closely and same holds true for Cyprus, Romania & Bulgaria. Take Greece for example : a country where the media are controlled at 90% by 2-3 businessmen (I do no need to mention names) positioned by you know whom in the last 30 years to "do ""their"" business" there (i.e. you know for whom) who for the most give allegiance to PASOK - you know whose country's citizen - Jeffrey-led party.
"""This 2010 report compiled by 'Reporters Without Frontiers' begs the question: What is the purpose of the Lisbon Treaty and its attachment the EUropean Human Rights claims when many of the EU27 cannot even get their own Governments to abide by the freedoms it supposedly guarantees?"""
However, how do you explain that comparatively, people in Greece, Italy or France are much more informed on things than people in top of the list countries?
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Reincarnation re your post 51 regarding 'happy travelling's post -
"Scotland has one MP per every 40,000 population where as the rest of the UK has 1 MP for every 70,000."
And your reply 'You are living in the past. Since 2005, the average Scottish electorate per constituency is precisely the same as England's.'
Happy travelling is some way off the mark, however you are not 'precisely' correct either. Currently Scottish Constituencies average 87601 people (Scotland has a population of 5,168,500 and 59 constituencies. England's constituencies average 93984, population 50,093,800 with 533 constituencies. So still an imbalance in representation but not one I personally get too worked up about.
However you go onto say -
'Even then, you clearly misunderstand the effect of smaller constituency size in the smaller nations of the UK. Even if all Scottish/Welsh/NI MPs combined to vote in favour of policies that benefited the devolved nations, they would still be easily outvoted by MPs representing English constituencies, if they disagreed.'
Yes if all English MP's vote one way they could not be outvoted, however this does not happen because all m.p.s vote on party and political lines. So for example a majority of English m.p.'s voted against tuition fees in England. However because of scottish Labour m.p.'s voting for them the measure was passed. Thus despite the fact that in Scotland there are no tuition fees. This highlights a real injustice that scottish, welsh and northen Irish M.P.'s can vote on matters that only effect England, but english m.p.s have no similar provision to vote on matters that only effect Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
I have found your postings on the whole well thought out, would you agree with me that this basic unfairness cannot stand.
I personally am for the union, but would feel no great concern if others wanted to leave it. At the present time there is no majority in any of the 4 countries that want to do that.
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To Gavin and all the people which are against the EU and the Euro.
I am first a EU citizen and second a citizen of the country of my birth.
I am very proud be an European and by this I men the continent of Europe i like my tradition - food - history and culture, i like to keep the all the above,i do not wont American - Indian or other culture to replace one of the must rich culture in the world.
The only institution capable to do this is the EU.
As European we should learn from other nations which defend peacefully their
culture and traditions to the last person standing.
Let us pull together to save ours.
John
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Re #61. At 11:17am on 30 Nov 2010, Nik wrote:
"Remark 1: Most of them are boring countries where nothing happens. Most of them, out of hot geopolitical games, many small meaningless in geopolitical sense countries left tranquile to prosper in their corners, I also see the world's bankers... why would journalists there scratch deeper?"
Yes, yes, Nik, if You say so! 69 countries ahead of Greece... very 'boring' places.
Nik says, "..However, how do you explain that comparatively, people in Greece, Italy or France are much more informed on things than people in top of the list countries?.."
Erm, here's a thought for You: Maybe people in ***Greece*** (& if You are an example there is NO 'maybe' about it), maybe people in ***Italy*** and maybe people in ***France*** AREN'T "MORE INFORMED"!?
You see Nik, You allege they are: Whereas typically of Your assumptions the factual-reality of documentation - - in this case from 'Reporters Without Frontiers' - - verifies and substantiates You are mistaken (WOW, that's a shock!) about certain Nationalities that assume they are 'informed'.
Any Nation, such as Greece, Italy, France that has any or all of repeated Government intervention, Judicial intervention, Criminal intervention etc. IS NOT AN INFORMED Citizenry.
On the contrary Nik, that is the ideal environment for an Individual to come up with all sorts of nonsensical conspiracy theories because they do not have access to reliable Media sources.
Any thoughts on the sort of Nation & chap might fall into that category?
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I wrote in post 1 on this blog "watch this space".
The Irish Times reported today
Quote
The euro hit its lowest in 10 weeks against the dollar and other currencies today after Ireland's rescue package failed to calm worries that bailouts would be needed in other euro zone countries.
The premiums investors demand to hold Spanish and Italian sovereign bonds over German debt hit their highest since the euro's launch and some of the region's "core" debt issuers, including France, were pressured.
The €85 billion deal for Ireland, agreed by European Union finance ministers on Sunday, failed to stop euro zone peripheral bond yields rising sharply yesterday, reflecting a lack of confidence the deal would contain the euro zone's debt crisis.
"Markets are very downbeat on the euro zone periphery, not just about Portugal but also Spain and Italy," said Stephan Maier, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.
"The euro has had a hard fall and has not been lifted by the finalising of the Irish rescue deal". End Quote from article.
It seems clear that the market is not at all reassured by the "rescue package" for Ireland. They have concluded that the Irish rescue, like the Greek rescue, does not solve the problems of Govt deficits or sovereign/bank debt in those countries and that the packages simply postpone a day of reckoning.
It is merely a question of time before the next country needs a rescue package and which other countries then move into the immediate danger zone. Yields on governemnt bonds remain very high and as you will see from the article, yields on Spain and Italy increased and even France came under was pressure.
As pressure builds up, it becomes a question of not whether the Euro and the Eurozone will survive but more a question of when it will fall apart.
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59. Buzet23
You are more than welcome to your sector. I see, however, that you remain wedded to the false economic narrative.
Scotland's fiscal deficit is less per head of population than that of the UK as a whole. Both are funded by borrowing (hence the mess that the UK has got us in). Even without oil, Scotland has the third highest GVA per head in the UK, after London and the South East. To argue that "England" is subsidising us simply demonstrates that your credulity outweighs your ability to read the evidence.
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62. one step beyond
"This highlights a real injustice that scottish, welsh and northen Irish M.P.'s can vote on matters that only effect England, but english m.p.s have no similar provision to vote on matters that only effect Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. "
I wholly agree that this situation is unjust. Indeed, polling suggests that a considerable majority of Scots agree with us too.
The failure to create an English Parliament is not down to the SCots, Welsh, and Irish - but entirely a matter for the English. If you want one, then vote in a manner that forces your politicians to give you what you want. That's what the rest of us did.
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63. At 11:41am on 30 Nov 2010, john wrote:
To Gavin and all the people which are against the EU and the Euro.
I am first a EU citizen and second a citizen of the country of my birth.
I am very proud be an European and by this I men the continent of Europe i like my tradition - food - history and culture, i like to keep the all the above,i do not wont American - Indian or other culture to replace one of the must rich culture in the world.
The only institution capable to do this is the EU.
As European we should learn from other nations which defend peacefully their
culture and traditions to the last person standing.
Let us pull together to save ours.
John"
I'm sure the sentiment of being 'proud' of EUropean culture is accepted by most people.
Equally, I'm sure that the combination of cultures has been going on for time immemorial.
When in the UK, Germany, Italy, Sweden etc. have You not noticed the abundance of Spanish, Chinese, Indian, American, Hungarian, Greek, Turkish, Australian, Indonesian, Brazilian etc. cuisine, clothing, customs, festivals, languages, faiths, etc. and vice versa?
Nobody needs an EU to protect 'European' culture or identity: What is needed is for each individual Nation to continue to thrive as individual Nations conscious of their own traditions etc. whilst be accepting of those from the rest of Europe and the World at large.
Labelling 27 Nations as a EUropean Union doesn't mean anything at all for the culture, but does have an impact on the taxes paid, the rights & responsibilities etc. of each European Nation and their Citizens. Infact the EU reduces the cultural differences.
IMO everything You profess to be so proud of in Europe is endangered by the homogenizing policies of the EU-Brussels political entity.
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#61. At 11:17am on 30 Nov 2010, Nik
I was referring to expenditure against revenue, the oil revenue is just part of the overall picture. The Scots spend their money on a number of things that the English do not and even allowing for the oil revenue they are spending more than they earn.
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#66. At 12:02pm on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation
"Both are funded by borrowing (hence the mess that the UK has got us in)."
And from which of the four nations were most the ministers from during the last thirteen years, could it be Scotland, it was your own countryman canny McClown who became the expert at borrowing. I guess that you are prepared to admit the high Scottish involvement in the UK's debt problem.
As for understanding where the debt lies, well the imbalance in the theoretical Scottish economy had they been independent shows that not only have the Scots in their parliament spent far too much, but that the money to correct that must have come from somewhere. The two most obvious sources are either borrowings or transfer from UK funds (i.e. England).
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64. At 11:47am on 30 Nov 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
"""Yes, yes, Nik, if You say so! 69 countries ahead of Greece... very 'boring' places."""
You misunderstood my sayings. I am not defending the situation of press in Greece. I am with you on that and if you want to be honest you can at least recognise that I have been bashing the overconcentration of power and the closing of the 90% of the press in favour of the PASOK party of the well known affiliations.
"""Nik says, "..However, how do you explain that comparatively, people in Greece, Italy or France are much more informed on things than people in top of the list countries?..""""
"""Erm, here's a thought for You: Maybe people in ***Greece*** (& if You are an example there is NO 'maybe' about it), maybe people in ***Italy*** and maybe people in ***France*** AREN'T "MORE INFORMED"!?"""
Let us do an experiment CBW. We ask in all top list countries (the nordic block) and in all mid-of-the-range lists (the Mediterranean block) about 2-3 events that go on in their countries and 2-3 events on the international scene and we do the comparison. I travel a lot and speak to all sorts of people. Commenting of people that move in the same social circles as me, from my experience, people of the Nordic block are usually not willing to talk. I do not sugges that this is out of fear of expressing their opinion but more out of cultural habits. But whatever the reason, that is a characteristic I see only among the likes of Japanese and Chinese. Russians who are also northern are very outspoken people and tend to search their opinion no matter if they have traditionally lived in a state that wants to control them tightly. Northern Europeans do not no matter if they live in relaxed states. When you press them to reveal their positions and they finally do it, they tend to be relatively shallow and be it coming from the right or the left wing very very "according to the norm". If you tell them a thing they do not know or goes against the norm they will say even less. No matter if their educational background they will keep it shallow. A communications strategy? I do not think so. One only needs to see their worldview to realise that they are stuck in the 1950s or something - they have understood nothing of how the world really works. They think eg. that Ireland, Greece or Portugal is a case of local bad management. When you tell them however the words "traderoute", "geopolitical threat" they turn the head the other side all while even an uninformed (and even one of lower education) French, Italian, Spanish or Greek will open his ears to learn something and he will even try to express his opinion on that. Now, for you info, CBW, British as northerners lie in the middle so they do not fare badly, not at all. I do not agree with much of their positions but they are people that understand more easily than say the Danish or the Dutch - that makes you an exception (are you Dutch by the way?). In contrast, people from France, Italy, Spain or Greece tend to constantly interrogate as well as reformulate outspokenly their opinions. They won't stop at "norms" (eg. 1 such norm is for example that Al-Kaida exists since US told us so or Wikileaks is an independent media becayse the site says so!) but they will break them at the first occasion. My comments are on the average image people are giving. Call it stereotypical if you want but there is always out there a general image. It ges without saying that I have met very knowledgeable and outspoken northerners and very shallow and "normalised" southerners. But as the average goes like that, I can take the immense liberty to say that I can extremely easily imagine that in the north the "system" is much more relaxed in the sense people won't be interested to dig anyway. So no need for processes and such, which is the case of the more volatile south.
But let me give you a very fitting example. Between France and Germany:
In France they have lots of processes against journalists. A number of them concern for example sales of arms in third countries where the French state employed bribes and even caused events that provokes the death of people locally. Info leaked, political leaders sought to cover it. So instantly the position of France is lowered to the mid-range.
Take now Germany where "everything works perfectly". The country in reality is "the mother of all corruption" and it does not even sell a lot of military, space or nuclear high end projects but mostly mundane commercial/industrial products like cars, machines, chemicals etc. On can only imagine what would happen if they really sold lots of the high end projects especially in defense!!! Yet, Germans when it comes to Germans going corrupted abroad have absolutely no problem and there will be little fuss among the German press on that. The German people do not care about it, the press won't be occupied so no need to apply pressure on the press. Excellent, Germans get on the top of the list.
Dear CBW. Tell me now. What this survey does really measure?
That is how you analyse the results. So think before throwing in a list that tells us little more than nothing particular.
"""You see Nik, You allege they are: Whereas typically of Your assumptions the factual-reality of documentation - - in this case from 'Reporters Without Frontiers' - - verifies and substantiates You are mistaken (WOW, that's a shock!) about certain Nationalities that assume they are 'informed'.
Op! You do a fatal error here. You assuming that the level of information of people depends on the media they read/watch/here and that is usually the local media of their country mostly. And following that kind of logic the likes of Greeks lag since Greece is in the middle of the list. Well the reality is vastly different to that logic. Personally I am mostly informed by the absolute mainstream media like BBC, CNN, Le Monde, Russia Today and last but not least Kathimerini for Greece. No conspirational leaflets and no revolutionary sites like wikileaks. I am aware of guys like Alex Jones and his "independent media" (how much really?) and I find it amusing to find after so many years a guy that expresses quite much of what I had found out out of years of interest in history & geopolitics but that does not mean he represents me in anyway, he does not since he is part of the "system" of information as much as wikileaks so I rarely enter in his site (I rarely enter on anyone's site or blog, I do believe one can be informed by maintsteam totally controlled and totally propagandistic media). Cos it is all there! No need to search the magic wikileak. Go to wikileaks to find some piece of info, listen to Jones to get an idea or tow but where you have to go really is to the mainstream : what you have to do though to do is to be able to see below the surface: why it is written like that what is in there! And then you start combining info. Cross-analysis:
Remember? Some months ago I had explained to you here by ONLY referring to BBC articles all the timeline of events leading to the accident in the ol platform in New Orleans. Even more interestingly I presented all the timeline for the case of Greece from 2000 up to 2009 ONLY with BBC articles. Call me whatever, but uninformed (at least on the subjects and on the level I keep my speech) you can't.
"""Any Nation, such as Greece, Italy, France that has any or all of repeated Government intervention, Judicial intervention, Criminal intervention etc. IS NOT AN INFORMED Citizenry."""
Citizens of these countries are as propagandised as countries in the quiet north. The level of information depends singlehandedly in the will of people to know more. Apparently in the north, that will is less strong. One could say that northerners work and have no time to spend on discussions like southerner Nik (I do have a job but being on sceen 10 hours per day, office or home, it permits me to be here too) but then even that argument does not hold true since the average worker in Germany is around 1800 hours (and Danish, Dutch or Swedish might be even less) which lags far behind the average 2200 annual hours that Greek workers work.
"""On the contrary Nik, that is the ideal environment for an Individual to come up with all sorts of nonsensical conspiracy theories because they do not have access to reliable Media sources."""
I have just answered you. I read the news in BBC, CNN, Le Monde, Russia Today and Kathimerini. More mainstream than that you cannot get. If it is reliable it is up to you to judge but certainly no conspiracy theories in there. If you have any better to propose to me tell me, I am inherently interested. It is you though that keeps referring to Wikileaks and other treehugging non-governmental mumbo jumbo.
"""Any thoughts on the sort of Nation & chap might fall into that category?"""
Let us take an international example: more than 95% of Greek citizens believe that the towers fell out of controlled demolision. The relative percentage in a country like Britain is much lower (certainly lower than 70% - unless you correct me, and please I want to be corrected in that). The overuling scientific truth that can accept no further discussion is that we talk 100% of controlled demolition and as such that the Bush administration lied over the event - in case anyone still wishes to argue he can do the experiment himself (but in the same logic I can start redoing experiments to find out if all things fall to earth or if the earth is round). I.e. a much greater % in the supposedly (according to you) better informed Britain believe the lie than Greeks. That tells us a lot about the level of information among people. And imagine Britain faires ok (so please do your best not to lower the standards!) - in other northern countries things can get worse.
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Re #67. At 12:06pm on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation wrote:
"62. one step beyond
"This highlights a real injustice that scottish, welsh and northen Irish M.P.'s can vote on matters that only effect England, but english m.p.s have no similar provision to vote on matters that only effect Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. "
I wholly agree that this situation is unjust. Indeed, polling suggests that a considerable majority of Scots agree with us too.
The failure to create an English Parliament is not down to the SCots, Welsh, and Irish - but entirely a matter for the English. If you want one, then vote in a manner that forces your politicians to give you what you want. That's what the rest of us did."
Totally agree.
However, unfortunately, England and the English do not possess the psychological 'picked-on'/'exploited-by-them' attitude prevalent among the minority who were politically motivated in each of the other 3 Union Nations during the rise of the 'devolution' issue in the last third of the 20th century.
Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland (though granted many other issues in play in the 6 counties) all had the unplanned but inspirational in-put of bogey-in-chief PM Thatcher & her vandalising policies toward British industries. True England manufacturing, mining etc. suffered in the same manner, but the Conservative Government circa 1979 to 1996 galvanised 'self-determination' sentiments. In political reaction the 'Nationalist' Parties % support began to consistently record double-figures and the New Labour Party leadership saw 'devolution' as a policy-promise to draw off even more electoral support from Major's moribund Government.
However, there was no appeal to English 'Nationalism': Infact, the devolving of power to the 3 Union nations meant little or nothing to the English because in practical terms they neither gained nor lost. At least the English were persuaded they lost nothing; as we now recognise via the 'East Midlothian' question the impact of Scottish New Lab MPs was immense in England.
That 'impact', ironically was a minor, but well-orchestrated part of the Tory Party campaign appeal to the 'English' electorate in order to oust Jock Brown's Labour in May '09.
I recall writing 4years ago on these blogs soon after G.Brown was returned unopposed to No.10 by Labour MPs that the Labour Party MPs were mad & blind to have selected a Scotsman in 2007 as their Leader!
To my mind, given all the devolved institutions, the divisions within the English Nation and the growing sense of unrest among the English about an undue influence from over the border it was shere political ineptitude to have let Brown into No.10 when an English PM was urgently required for Labour to continue in power.
Anyway, prescient though I may have been, nobody listened to me (hmm, no change at all then!!!!) and thus we have a Conservative Party Government held together by a Lib-Dem minority: A classic recipe for Scots, Welsh, N.Irish to again feel 'picked-on' by an 'English' Westminster and cue more calls for total self-determination.
Given the state of English Political representation England will only achieve its own Parliament when Scotland, Wales & N.Ireland force the break-up of the UK and England's political parties have to fend for themselves.
Cheers.
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70. Buzet23
"The two most obvious sources are either borrowings or transfer from UK funds (i.e. England)."
But the entire UK has run deficits for many years, and England is by far and away the largest part of the UK. Now, if you can produce figures to show that England has been in financial surplus, and has beggared itself by subsiding those grasping Celts, I'd be delighted to see what you can produce.
Face it. The entire argument that Scotland couldn't survive because it has a fiscal deficit equally applies to the UK and many other countries.
The question as to whether countries have been wise to run up such massive deficits is entirely another matter.
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72. cool_brush_work
"Given the state of English Political representation England will only achieve its own Parliament when Scotland, Wales & N.Ireland force the break-up of the UK and England's political parties have to fend for themselves."
A wonderful example of "English cringe"! Poor wee souls that you are, you can't take control of your own affairs, but need others to do the job for you. :-) :-) :-)
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19. cool_brush_work
"A "write-in" campaign on the AV form voting for what an actual democracy would have allowed would be a good start!"
Totally agree."
Seems like we aren't the only ones to gave that idea.
"1. Q. How should Scots respond to this disrespectful imposition of an irrelevant referendum on the same day as the election of our national parliament?
1. A. We hijack it. We use it for our own, much more important, objectives. We turn the AV referendum into a referendum on Scottish Independence."
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/
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"Playing the long game"
Nice phrase there. Could also be written as "Passing the buck to our children for our own financial lunacy".... or possibly "Praying for a miracle"
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#75. At 2:56pm on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation
I don't know whether you've ever attended a count but I have and no notice is ever taken of the words scrawled across a ballot paper, some make very interesting reading as they can be very colourful, but they are never recorded. Should Scots follow the advice of the writer of the blog on that link then they will achieve what Gordon McClown achieved in his thirteen years as Chancellor and PM, precisely nothing.
#73. At 2:26pm on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation
England has most certainly not been in financial surplus, especially since the last 13 years of Scottish miss-rule, however whatever money was used to bolster the economies of the other three nations would have been better spent on England to lessen the debt somewhat. Just as money spent on foreign aid to countries that in all honesty neither need or deserve it (e.g. India) would also have helped. The biggest reason though was Scottish run Nu-Labour that took a reasonably healthy UK to a pretty sick UK by spending far too much to gain popularity. In this it seems the Scottish parliament are prone to do exactly the same for political advantage.
Incidently, regarding the comments about non-English MP's being able to vote on English only matters there is something else that Independence could bring. Those English MP's who have Scottish nationality would be excluded from standing for the English parliament, as EU rules limit what elections non-nationals can participate in. Scots living in England would be disallowed the vote in any general election unless they ask for and are granted English nationality. Interesting thought don't you think?
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77. Buzet23
"Scots living in England would be disallowed the vote in any general election unless they ask for and are granted English nationality."
Unless you are suggesting some form of ethnicity test, the situation would be identical as to the situation in the Velvet Divorce between Czechia and Slovakia. Rules would have to be drawn up in each of the former constituent parts as to who is entitled to citizenship. Hardly an original thought.
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@70 Nik
"I do not agree with much of their positions but they are people that understand more easily than say the Danish or the Dutch - that makes you an exception (are you Dutch by the way?). In contrast, people from France, Italy, Spain or Greece tend to constantly interrogate as well as reformulate outspokenly their opinions."
Here is the deal with Dutch and Danish people:
most of them are so polite, that they will rather say nothing than embarrass you or fight a useless verbal argument.
With all your knowledge of the world, you failed to realize this?
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#78. At 3:32pm on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation
"Hardly an original thought.", True but a point that never seems to be mentioned by anyone here or those proponents of Independence. I merely mention it since it is a complication of divorce, especially since it will involve who is or is not a member of the EU. The situation about Scotland is the same as for Flanders, if either leaves their union they have to apply to become a member of the EU, and whether England voted to leave the EU is another complication. The status of English Scottish residents would be very interesting, especially as many are so avidly Scottish, will they be honest and keep Scottish nationality or dishonest and take English nationality and renounce their Scottish heritage. The difference to Czech and Slovakia is that they worked it out with no outside interference, with Scotland the EU and Brussels will be heavily involved, not quite the same scenario I think.
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74. At 2:34pm on 30 Nov 2010, reincarnation wrote:
72. cool_brush_work
"Given the state of English Political representation England will only achieve its own Parliament when Scotland, Wales & N.Ireland force the break-up of the UK and England's political parties have to fend for themselves."
A wonderful example of "English cringe"! Poor wee souls that you are, you can't take control of your own affairs, but need others to do the job for you. :-) :-) :-)"
What can I say? Perfidious Englishmen & women to the last moment: So cunningly disinterested they'll get the Scots, Welsh & Irish to go and Vote for England's 'self-determination'!
In essence the real 'little Englanders': Those who support Radicalism and Liberalism in a Laissez-faire economic system and oppose Imperialism from the State or some great amorphous continental political-construct. Advocates of England's retrenchment: Accepting its wholly diminished role and welcoming that departure from a prominence no longer suited to its present or future.
We English shall not mourn the passing of the political UK as people of good-will shall retain the quality of friendships and associations that so enriched the Union of 4.
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Reincarnation,
thanks for the reply. If the Scottish people do decide to leave the union (doubtful I think for a while)I sincerely wish them well and hope we can be 'good neighbours' in the future. Does not mean I agree the break up of the union is desirable just that a forced marriage is no good for anyone. Would be a pity as I believe the scottish people have made a great contribution to the Union throughout the last 3 centuries.
As to the mechanics I believe that can be worked out as and when.
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@70 Nik
"But let me give you a very fitting example. Between France and Germany:
In France they have lots of processes against journalists. A number of them concern for example sales of arms in third countries where the French state employed bribes and even caused events that provokes the death of people locally. Info leaked, political leaders sought to cover it. So instantly the position of France is lowered to the mid-range.
Take now Germany where "everything works perfectly". The country in reality is "the mother of all corruption" and it does not even sell a lot of military, space or nuclear high end projects but mostly mundane commercial/industrial products like cars, machines, chemicals etc. On can only imagine what would happen if they really sold lots of the high end projects especially in defense!!! Yet, Germans when it comes to Germans going corrupted abroad have absolutely no problem and there will be little fuss among the German press on that. The German people do not care about it, the press won't be occupied so no need to apply pressure on the press. Excellent, Germans get on the top of the list."
You forgot to mention that the French state is involved in massive corruption within its former colonies whereas Germany doesn`t have that luxury.
But you are particularly correct that most German citizens don`t really care whether German corporations bribe foreign politicians or something like that.
At the same time, however, they realize who is at fault the most: the politician who accepts the bribe (we have excessive lobbyism as well, mind you), e.g. from pharma giants.
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54. At 01:45am on 30 Nov 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
"The break-up of the UK is IMO a very good thing: It is a really very successful institution that has run its course. That said, the average Englishman will just say, 'So what!?'"
I really couldnt disagree more.
I believe that what makes the UK such a special place is that 4 very different nations work together to achieve a common goal - where the sum of all the parts is truly bigger than the individual components.
I agree that there need to be changes in the Union (an English Assembly for us), greater autonomy for the Scots, and Welsh and the N. Irish should they choose.
I definately draw the line at a break up of the union however. I see no benefit to either English, Scots, Welsh, or Irish if the union were to break up - other than to feather the nest of that truly awful human being - Alex Salmond.
"And then get on with his/her life and let's face it the Scots, Welsh & even most Northern Irish aren't going to be demanding passports at the borders, at least not if they ever want to get to see France & mainland Europe again without a 2 hour minimum queue!"
You may jest - I recently moved to southern Spain......you just try getting in and out of Gibraltar quickly other than in the dead of night. 4 hour queues, Spanish border police harrassing everyone, cars randomly being dismantled to check for contraband. A truly awful situation.
Unique, maybe so, but surely we do not want to view our Scottish and Welsh brothers on the same way that the Spanish view the Gibraltarians (and vice versa).
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81. cool_brush_work
"We English shall not mourn the passing of the political UK as people of good-will shall retain the quality of friendships and associations that so enriched the Union of 4. "
Amen to that, my friend. The real "social union" will continue regardless.
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80. Buzet23
"with Scotland the EU and Brussels will be heavily involved, not quite the same scenario I think."
I suspect that matters will be clearer by the time the question arises. Catalonia and Flanders will doubtless have paved the way.
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#68 cool_brush_work
"Labelling 27 Nations as a EUropean Union doesn't mean anything at all for the culture . . . "
Really?
Well this is a very narrow view of culture. If you mean that the Berlin Philharmonic is just as capable of playing Elgar as the LSO is of playing Brahms and no amount of regulation is going to change that, you may be right.
But if I go sailing in the Channel of a weekend, I can potter freely from Budapest to the boat in Caens but if we fancy popping into Cowes or Lymington for lunch, then we have to jump through hoops to satisfy the bureaucracy.
That isn't cultural?
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71. At 1:51pm on 30 Nov 2010, Nik wrote:
"""Nik says, "..However, how do you explain that comparatively, people in Greece, Italy or France are much more informed on things than people in top of the list countries?..""""
CBW wrote in reply: """Erm, here's a thought for You: Maybe people in ***Greece*** (& if You are an example there is NO 'maybe' about it), maybe people in ***Italy*** and maybe people in ***France*** AREN'T "MORE INFORMED"!?"""
NIK wrote, "..Let us do an experiment CBW. We ask in all top list countries (the nordic block) and in all mid-of-the-range lists (the Mediterranean block) about 2-3 events that go on in their countries and 2-3 events on the international scene and we do the comparison."
No, Nik let us not do an experiment!
I recall You are the fellow that claimed as 2 of Your fellow countrymen had been beaten up in Sunderland most of the English 'working class' were thugs!
I recall You labelled the entire Albanian population 'thieves'!
I remember Your "..international scene.." includes diatribes of spite against Americans, Turkish, Jews etc.
It's not so long ago You were suggesting a Naval War between the UK & China over Gibraltar!
Only a week ago You were demanding the UK withdraw from Gibraltar despite overwhelming % of its Citizens voting in 2002 for Britain to remain!
No matter what You may think of as Your unbiased views I don't see much evidence of that in any of Your contributions.
I've read quite enough of Your summations of 'events' and 'peoples'.
CBW wrote, """On the contrary Nik, that is the ideal environment for an Individual to come up with all sorts of nonsensical conspiracy theories because they do not have access to reliable Media sources."""
Nik writes: "I have just answered you. I read the news in BBC, CNN, Le Monde, Russia Today and Kathimerini. More mainstream than that you cannot get. If it is reliable it is up to you to judge but certainly no conspiracy theories in there. If you have any better to propose to me tell me, I am inherently interested. It is you though that keeps referring to Wikileaks and other treehugging non-governmental mumbo jumbo.2
Well, first, I've never once mentioned "tree-hugging" nor "non-governmental mumbo-jumbo": I think You are confusing me with someone else on those things.
Second, I've referred to 'Wikileaks' because it is the main International storyline of the moment: It also happens to be a storyline that refers directly to all Your months of allegations about US-UK 'conspiracies' regarding Greece's 'geo-political' importance.
I referred to 'Wikileaks because there are thousands upon thousands of documents from Diplomats the world over representing the USA and contrary to everything You have claimed Greece ISN'T in the 'geo-political/'conspiracy'/'secret service'/'military'/'economic' sights of any!
I cannot help You: You claim to read/see all sorts of 'Media', and yet when those Media are packed with details of the 'Wikileaks' apparently they are suddenly suspect and not to be accepted! And why are they suspect in Your mind? Because Greece is barely mentioned and You cannot accept that plain, undisguised, reality fact.
Now, that is it: I made my point across 3 different blog articles. You've replied.
I believe 'Wikileaks' to be valid, substantiated documentation that exposes much of the fantasy behind Your political beliefs. I do not expect You to agree.
Others can make their minds up on this issue.
I make only one promise to You: 'Wikileaks' is only at the start of a massive process of revelation - - if it should transpire in time that Greece does figure prominently in US-Diplomatic documents I will apologise without reserve and eat as much humble pie as the internet allows - - I ask only 1 thing of You: That if it transpires Greece receives the modest mentions in US cables one anticipates for a relatively unimportant Nation You have the courage to accept You have been largely mistaken in Your 'geo-political' theories.
(I should point out that IMO references to the Cyprus divide do NOT constitute any sort of 'geo-political' master-plan by the US or UK).
Okay.
Cheers.
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69. At 1:34pm on 30 Nov 2010, Buzet23 wrote:
"""#61. At 11:17am on 30 Nov 2010, Nik
I was referring to expenditure against revenue, the oil revenue is just part of the overall picture. The Scots spend their money on a number of things that the English do not and even allowing for the oil revenue they are spending more than they earn."""
Thanks for the clarification Buzet23. SO, in this case, first, even before the English and Welsh it is the Scottish that must rush and check out what is going on out there because it just does not add up. I won't refer to populist catchy phrases that "with all that oil, Scottish should eat with golden spoons" but then you have all those foreign investments and all that oil revenue (there is some, otherwise companies would not be there!) flying above their heads so the Scottish finances had at least to be in the positive and contributing to Britain, not the opposite. Last time I was in Scotland, in the late 90s I did not see any impovrished (this as per UK's average of course) but I did not see any extravaganzza either. Nor do I know of Scottish being all civil servants and sitting earning salaries. So indeed the people there need to see what is going on and how can they end up losing money. Is it all about UK citizens... funding the infrastructure so that private companies can enter, drill and and fly away with the... "spoils of war"!
If the Scottish need to take inspiration of what might be happening to their finances they can get inspired by the Greece-Irish contrasted paradigm.
Greece has a debt that by 2012 will be around 320-340 billion euros which will soon be about 120% of its GDP. Now everyone knew (no matter what some pretend) about Greece: corrupted state run by a bunch of families on the basis of client relationships, wasting money on grandiose projects that even if run correctly would be super expensive in this mountainous islandic country all while closing of all productive sectors, stangling of all promising sectors & aiding all unproductive sectors and most seriously maintaining whole armies of half-productive or totally unproductive civil servants in void services for client-reasons all while the country has been up to now imposed to keep off exploiting a vast part of its natural ressources (including a lot of oil - itself more than enough to pay the actual debts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal multiple times!!!) and not being able to all while again having to maintain one of the largest armies in Europe with a % of defense costs passing over the equivelent % of extra-militarised countries like USA! With the things going on there one would think that even the current 320 billion debt is a miraculous escape from worse!
For the record, Greece is an extremely islandic and extremely mountainous relatively dry and infertile (most difficult combinations...) land of a but more than 135,000km² about 10 million people (not counting the 2 million of jobless or black market illegal Albanian & asiatic muslim immigrants that burden the country further...) which as an overal GDP of about 320 billion which is expected to fall evidently. Its economy is characterised (as per wikipedia) agriculture: %3.4%; industry: 20.8%; services: 75.8% where much of the service sector is the maritime industry, the civil services and tourism.
Now about Ireland. Ireland is a country of nearly 85,000km² mostly flat and quite fertile albeit of relatively few ressources (without though any known particular imedement on their exploitation) which is host to some 5-6 million people with about half a million (? or more than so) mostly legal immigrants who are mostly coming from eastern Europe and usually tend to work in real jobs with minimal (as compared to the types of immigrants of Greece) negative social and financial impact upon the country. Ireland being certainly out of greater geostrategic games and having not the need for maintaining any great army. Ireland being a relatively quiet country internally despite the issues in northern Ireland which has as seen at surface low corruption levels (and where things like free press and justice work well as per the list CBW presented us above). Ireland did not see a desindustrialisation but on the contrary it saw a rapid increase in its productivity and its output in both manufactured goods and offered services all that to rise impressively its part up to around more than 200 billions GDP out of which the mix if about agriculture (5%), manufacturing (46%), services (49%), i.e. in comparison to Greece a much more balanced one and without many "black holes" that is tourism (where black market becomes easy).
In fact Ireland had been up to very very recently been described as an example of how to do things write: "the Celtic tiger"!
However, Ireland despite all that positive image ended up having a current debt of nearly 100 billion which however jumps up much more fast than the Greek one and is expected soon to rise to more than 150 billion euros all while the country's GDP is expected to fall in a much more accelerated way ending up in Ireland soon owning more % per GDP of debt than Greece.
If I have lost any details (forgive me I am not a specialist), I guide you to the following articles:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0522/1224270888132.html
http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php
Now the Irish Republic has been bailed out just like Greece with 85bn euros out of which 45bn euros come from the EU including bilateral loans from Britain, 22bn will come from the IMF and some 17.5bn euros will have to come from Ireland itself. I ignore the % of Greece's part in the overall 110bn Greek bail out (and I fear it is bigger as a %!) but already things look more heartening for Ireland having been assured for at least half its projected debt all while Greece has been assured only for the 1/3rd of its projected debt - I say this as a joke since one cannot use the word "heartening" in that situation!
Our question is, how on earth these 2 countries so different, following so different policies. For Greece it is obvious but Ireland?
All the articles talk is about the dealings of government with banks. So, is it so? And if it is so, then I sincirely wonder what is the worst case? Who is the most corrupted of all? Who is most exploited - trust me this is not a comparison between the Greek and the Irish people, nothing like that... all I am saying is that corruption in Greece was consciusly spread as a system and money were step by step consumed to ask more loans and so on - this is actually a societal organisational form called "model of systemic corruption". In the case of Ireland however, there was no such system installed and as such the debt mainly came out of the dealings of governments and bankers - all that if I am not gravely mistaken. Which currently ends up in a debt that is rising as much and phenomenaly worse than Greece's given the whole package. So are we talking about the last 20 years Irish governments being 10 times more corrupted than Greek governments or what? Again I underline, the question is not about Irish themselves just, it is about each single state on the earth. We have to know with what we are dealing and what we are dealing is systemic debt. Nothing new though, this thing exists for centuries so one can imagire the worst intentions by national governments that played all that game all these years.
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The best way forward out of this mess will be to support the Proposed Bank of England Act 2010 which can be read in summary and full at the website PositiveMoney dot ORG.
It makes sense to stop the country being beholden to PRIVATE banks.
A Nations Money Supply MUST be created and circulated in the Public Interest for the Public Good.
Private banks do not create and put money in to circulation for the public good, they do it for their own good. Period. This is why we have the "Economic Cycle" of boom and bust, because the private banks control over 96% of the "money". And can take it out of circulation, depressing and economy to suit their own agendas, whatever they be.
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GH:"does this latest bail-out actually address the underlying problems?"
No. It didn't in Greece. And it won't in Ireland or Portugal.
Let alone - SPAIN.
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Re #84. At 4:16pm on 30 Nov 2010, BuckyOHare wrote:
"54. At 01:45am on 30 Nov 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
"The break-up of the UK is IMO a very good thing: It is a really very successful institution that has run its course. That said, the average Englishman will just say, 'So what!?'"
I really couldnt disagree more.
I believe that what makes the UK such a special place is that 4 very different nations work together to achieve a common goal - where the sum of all the parts is truly bigger than the individual components.
I agree that there need to be changes in the Union (an English Assembly for us), greater autonomy for the Scots, and Welsh and the N. Irish should they choose.
I definately draw the line at a break up of the union however. I see no benefit to either English, Scots, Welsh, or Irish if the union were to break up - other than to feather the nest of that truly awful human being - Alex Salmond."
Bucky, mate, I really sympathise with how You feel, but I'm just facing the Real Politik of the present day UK.
Scots, Welsh & N.Irish don't want us English having anymore to do with how they Govern themselves.
The political-philosophical writing & ballot box results have been against us for 3 decades now and IMO there is no turning the tide of Public opinion back toward favourably viewing the UK.
It is not yet a clear-cut majority for self-determination, but it is moving along those lines and this present Con-LibDem Coalition is just more political-social-economic ammunition for the malcontents of all 4 Union Nations.
I include myself as 1 of those from England: Though as I am retired & resident in Finland it is a strictly arms-length analysis.
We have a daughter whose partner is a Scot and they live in London - - we discuss these matters with them & his Glaswegian parents who live in Surrey - - they all think fairly much as I do, regrettable as it may appear there's no going back. The sovereignty 'independence' dye-is-cast.
Yes, I was joking on the 'passport' thing: Of course as I wrote in my #81, I anticipate a reasonable & civilised break-up between 4 great friends who in essence are merely looking to advance themselves by seeking suitable marriages! It would be a travesty of commonsense and all that the 4 Union Nations have shared over 300+ years were any 1 or more to impose any sort of travel, occupation, residence restrictions on the others. IMO it would also prove impssible to implement given the mass of mixed origins (e.g. MargaretH & her long-suffering English hubby; our daughter & partner's off-spring etc.).
No, I think we must make the best of it: For sure England & the English deserve a Democratically Elected National Parliament that adequately reflects the Citizens' ballot box views.
I agree entirely on the unctuous Mr Salmond, but that really is the Scots' look-out.
Blimey, we've enough problems of our own with Cameron-Clegg-Milliband!
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"It is likely that in 5-6 years the Celtic Tiger will take off again, all be it limited by the high levels of debt inherited from this last economic cycle. At this point, EU officials are likely to herald the euro saved. "
FreebornJohn
Are you assuming that euro is still going to be around in 5-6 years?
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This blog has gone off topic.
It is about the Irish bailout and the furture of the Euro and Euroland.
Gavin Hewitt wrote
"German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble described the deal as "a big success for Europe".
Likewise French government spokesman Francois Baroin said the rescue plan "forms part of the absolute determination in Europe - of France and Germany - to save the euro-zone". End quote
Gavin went onto say "Certainly it has bought some time".
Err no, it hasn't! Euro bonds have come under renewed attack this week. The cost of borrowing for Spain, Italy and Belgium continues to rise.
Portugal will auction 500m euros of government bonds on Wednesday with Spain asking for funds on Thursday.
The Euro has also fallen in value agaisnt the dollar and sterling and all other major currencies.
The price bond holders put on the Portugese bonds will be interesting. How long before they need to have a bailout because they can no longer borrow in the market at affordable rates. The next countries in line to Greece and Ireland are all lining up for a bailout. Does anyone think the Euro can survive the onslaught to come?
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"Le Monde, Russia Today and Kathimerini. More mainstream than that you cannot get."
You forgot Izvestya, Reminribao, L'Humanite and Al Jazeera. :)
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Euro bonds under new attack
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11877552
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#89. At 4:51pm on 30 Nov 2010, Nik
I only read your first paragraph since that was enough, from my comment that Scotland was spending more than it earnt you jumped into a tangent that was not in my posts. I made absolutely no comparison to any of the other home nations, just Scotland were it to be on its own and Independent, now is that clear enough?
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Re #87. At 4:28pm on 30 Nov 2010, threnodio_II writes:
"#68 cool_brush_work
"Labelling 27 Nations as a EUropean Union doesn't mean anything at all for the culture . . . "
Really?
Well this is a very narrow view of culture. If you mean that the Berlin Philharmonic is just as capable of playing Elgar as the LSO is of playing Brahms and no amount of regulation is going to change that, you may be right.
But if I go sailing in the Channel of a weekend, I can potter freely from Budapest to the boat in Caens but if we fancy popping into Cowes or Lymington for lunch, then we have to jump through hoops to satisfy the bureaucracy.
That isn't cultural?2
Threnodio, every bit of it is 'cultural' to nth degree.
The EUropean Union on the other hand has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Berlin Philharmonic, the playing of Brahms, Elgar or any other composer, and neither does the EU have any direct connection to shopping sur le continent or sailing at Cowes.
I could & did all that sort of thing long before the political-construct EU existed: I listened to the Vienna Philharmonic in Vienna, toured Versailles & the Louvre, visited the Breugel exhibitions in Antwerp, shopped at the Dunkirk, Calais & Boulogne hypermarkets, drove to Kiel for a Regatta, fished in the Netherlands Zuider Zee and had evening meals at restaurants in the Ardennes!
All in the 1960s, '70s, 80s - - quite why it now has to be labelled EUropean Union 'culture' I cannot see - - European National culture was always there and it was always European culture and it still is.
The EU-Brussels entity is a total irrelevance.
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65 busby
Quote
"The euro hit its lowest in 10 weeks against the dollar and other currencies today after Ireland's rescue package failed to calm worries that bailouts would be needed in other euro zone countries."
Are we to understand then that the euro was even lower 10 weeks ago and if so why was that?
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To powermeerkat (96):
You said: "Euro bonds under new attack
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11877552"
Gosh Damnit! It is Winter War again! Those pesky communists want to attack our hard earned Euro! ... Well, that ain't right. I'm not going to stand by and let some jelly belly bankers ruin my day... Boys, lets export some stuff, and put these socialists into red!
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In the Euro Zone country after country will now go down the same overspending/bailout route as this has now been permitted. Euro's will have to be printed out of thin air to do it and thus, peoples savings will be decimated as inflation eventually rears its head.
Same ol' song, different day..
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#99. At 7:26pm on 30 Nov 2010, margaret howard
In June it was even worse, take a look [http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EURUSD=X#symbol=;range=ytd;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;]
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@Buzet23,
So we pay for the Scots, the Welsh and the EU!!! Our only hope is to establish the "free republic of London":) well better still West London, with out Feltham, but some agreement with them for access to Heathrow.
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To margaret howard (99) and Buzet23 (102):
For reference, USD vs EUR since the birth of Euro.
http://tinyurl.com/3ynnrrb
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#98 - cool_brush_work
No, I am sorry but that will not do. I suppose I should confess to being a bit over the top in my original post. Actually, the chances are that, were we to land in the UK, no one would take the blindest bit of notice. Long before the pet passport thing came into effect, I have seen mainlanders come ashore with dogs who did the necessary (and often it was left there) and were not questioned. Were I to land in one of the Solent ports, chances are I would know the people concerned and would have no problem.
That is not the point. The point is that there exists a culture of paranoia which has little or no justification in reality. For heaven's sake, you live in a Schengen country. What is it about the UK that you wish to defend their policy while happily inhabiting a different environment?
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# 99. At 7:26pm on 30 Nov 2010, margaret howard wrote:
"Are we to understand then that the euro was even lower 10 weeks ago and if so why was that?"
Why pick on a comparison of the exchange rate and ignore the big issue about whether the PIIGS can finance their soverign debt and recapitalise their banking system? Why ignore the adverse market reaction to the Irish rescue package that was after all suppossd to reassure the market and bond holders?
The fact is that each "rescue" adds to the cost and puts futher pressure on those next in line. The markets are just beginning to realise the seriousness of the situation for the Euro. Only a few days ago the Portugese were saying they didn't need any help but Robert Peston's latest blog suggest otherwise.
If you think everything is fine with the Euro, that doesn't bother me but I do believe you are burying your head in the sand.
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Also the big issue here not that Euro has failed it has not and I wished we were in it also, for nothing else just to see bankers get less fees and exchange rate charges taken out of my account.
The big issue is that we are all taken for a ride and are paying the bankers debts, instead of them
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Re #105. At 10:04pm on 30 Nov 2010, threnodio_II wrote:
"#98 - cool_brush_work
No, I am sorry but that will not do.
That is not the point. The point is that there exists a culture of paranoia which has little or no justification in reality. For heaven's sake, you live in a Schengen country. What is it about the UK that you wish to defend their policy while happily inhabiting a different environment?"
Think we are talking slightly at cross-purposes: I wasn't originally thinking at all about Schengen. Infact, I'm still not.
Though I will say that the 'open borders' is a useless contribution to European 'culture' and again as with the EU entity has little or nothing to do with that 'culture' which existed long before they did away with sensible border-checks.
You've read my serious objections to Schengen many times, so I won't detail them here.
I do ask again, in all seriousness: What the heck has the EU to do with European 'culture'?
And, my own answer is precious little and most often damn all!
To repeat from Dover to Calais and all 'culturally' significant points in-between to Helsinki I had no problem pre-EU accessing anything I wanted. The EEC didn't have any effect and neither has the EU. To return to 'John' and his original claim that Europeans need the EU& EUro for European culture to survive... Why? What for? When did/does Brussels make 'culture' a safe thing? Or, are the 'pro-EU' literally trying to acquire control of 'culture' too with 'oversight', 'directives' and full-on EU 'competence' or it is not allowed to exist!?
I'm serious: It is one thing for EU-Brussels to decide & regulate what can be legitimately called Melton Mowbray Pork Pie, Devon Clotted Cream, Italian Parma Ham, Champagne etc. all of which are a part of European, culture.
However when it comes to deciding which is Rheims Cathedral, the Old Jewish Town in Prague, or Imatra Falls and all the rest of European heritage it is of no use at all. And neither does it have any function when it comes to my choosing the local ambience of where I choose to dine, sleep, shop etc.
Nobody need have any problem queuing for 30 to 40 minutes to enter or leave the UK: Most especially if they really do want to experience the 'Island' culture, ever so slightly distinct from the mainland!
Last bit tongue-firmly-in-ch...
Cheers.
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106. busby2
Margaret asked a perfectly reasonable question based on your post. Why did you not simply answer her?
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#106 - busby2 wrote:
#99 - margaret howard
It might also be sensible to factor in that Bernanke was deliberately building into his QE2 policy effective devaluation of the USD.
The fact of the relative decline of the Euro may not be entirely coincidental.
The phrase "two can play at that game" comes to mind and the art of market manipulation is not entirely dead.
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106 busby writes:
"If you think everything is fine with the Euro, that doesn't bother me but I do believe you are burying your head in the sand."
Well, I don't really know what to make of it. According to the links 102 & 104 from Buzet and Jukka (thank you both) the euro, like all currencies, just seems to go up and down and so the present drop appears to be quite normal. Do you know why, for instance, it took such a dip in June? It centainly couldn't have been connected with the current bail-outs.
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#108 - cool_brush_work
"I do ask again, in all seriousness: What the heck has the EU to do with European 'culture'?
And, my own answer is precious little and most often damn all!"
I could not agree more. In fact, there is very little in European culture which is not clearly based in a national culture. It is true - to refer to my earlier analogy - of the apparent Englishness of Elgar, the self-evident Austro-German tradition in which Brahms belongs, the Frenchness (if there is such a word) of impresionism. They have become universally accepted for great art because they are free to travel between cultures and become universal.
With the obvious exception of genius, what do they have which we mere mortals do not?
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#111. At 10:56pm on 30 Nov 2010, margaret howard
Maybe someone knows better but my guess it was as threnodio said, the quantitative easing policy of the US, certainly they were playing games at about the times of June and September, but I couldn't find anything relevant on the web.
The present drop is not really normal though as it represents disquiet about the Irish solution and due to that it could get much worse. One guide to watch is whether the pound roughly follows the Euro in upwards and downwards movement against the dollar, if they match then it is the dollar where we need to look for a reason, if only one of the Euro/pound currencies vary then it is that currency that has something happening.
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Trichet is calling for "greater harmonization". He would; he's a French, statist, centralising bureaucrat, or crypto-fascist in fact.
Today's funny? EU leaders are calling the bond-market traders "irrational" ....
Well, they'd know, wouldn't they?
It is bleedin' obvious that Greece, Ireland and Portugal will never be able to repay these vast loans. The idea that they (in particular Greece and Portugal) are suddenly going to be harmonized upwards to meet German standards so they can live in the euro is farcical. Do these people haveany serious economists working for them?
Not that they listen to their own economists; they were TOLD before the euro started that it wouldn't work with Greece, and then they even let Greece in on a LIE. It is the biggest disgrace since the war. I don't usually get angry (c'est la vie), but I am incandescent about the way Europe's politicians have lied and are now still in denial.
Trichet has promised to pour BILLIONS of taxpayers' money into any new fund to bail out Spain - sod what the taxpayers think of course. Who cares? But I am waiting to see how Merkel is going to sell a vast bailout of Spain to the Germans .....
The problem is that they are POLITICIANS who have personal investment in the euro. This has caused them to lose their reason.
The worst of it all is that many serious commentators think that this recession/crisis or whatever is going to get much worse, possibly MUCH, MUCH worse.
http://nemoinsula.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/ireland-euro-update/
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#111 At 10:56pm on 30 Nov 2010, margaret howard wrote:
"Well, I don't really know what to make of it. According to the links 102 & 104 from Buzet and Jukka (thank you both) the euro, like all currencies, just seems to go up and down and so the present drop appears to be quite normal. Do you know why, for instance, it took such a dip in June? It centainly couldn't have been connected with the current bail-outs".
There could be any number of reasons why currencies move. It is not exactly a free market because of Central Bank intervention. I note that June was the month after the Greek bailout.
The important issue however is not so much the day to day value of the Euro, interesting though that is, but the underlying stability of the Eurozone. That is not reflected in really large movements in the value of the Euro but instead in large movements in the bond yields for various members of the Eurozone. Bond rate have risen since the Irish bailout.
It has been the inability of Greece and the Republic of Ireland to raise the funds they required at affordable rates of interest to cover their deficits and banking black holes that precipitated the current crisis. The markets are also concerned that the rescue plans do not solve the underlying problems facing these countries because their economiies are contracting and their debts are increasing. The crisis is not over and seems to be gathering momentum. I believe it is unstoppable. Portugal is next in line according to Robert Peston's latest blog.
How long can the EU go on bailing out Euro member countries without it undermining confidence in the single currency when the markets perceive that the rescue plans won't work? For example, won't Greece require more funds in a year or so? How can they possibly afford to repay?
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Re #112. At 11:23pm on 30 Nov 2010, threnodio_II wrote:
"#108 - cool_brush_work
With the obvious exception of genius, what do they have which we mere mortals do not?"
Perhaps: The ambition to do more than is recognised as humanly possible.
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“All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in the Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation.” – John Adams in a letter to Thomas Jefferson
"The more things change the more they stay the same" - (somebody, I don't know who)
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#115. At 11:43pm on 30 Nov 2010, busby2
I was searching for the reason for the June dip as it was almost a month after the Greek bail-out was agreed, and I came across the following article from the 6th January 2010 :-
Jurgen Stark, the ECB's chief economist and the powerful German member on the bank's inner council, said Greece's problems are entirely "home-made" and do not meet the terms required to trigger the rescue mechanism under EU treaty law, which is limited to countries that face severe difficulties "beyond their own control".
"The Treaties set out a 'no bail-out' clause, and the rules will be respected. This is crucial for guaranteeing the future of a monetary union among sovereign states with national budgets. Markets are deluding themselves if they think that the other member states will at a certain point dip their hands into their wallets to save Greece,".
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It reminded me that twice now the EU and ECB have broken the treaty rules without any hesitation. Just what point is there in them continually wanting new treaties when they don't observe the ones they have, the EU mandarins by their actions are becoming a dictatorship, observing rules only when they want and doing what they want when the rules don't fit their ambitions. These crises are beginning to be the pandora's box and the lid is already partly open.
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This whole situation sucks and the way that it is being dealt with is wrong!
The inherent weakness in the Euro is that a Europe wide currency is being used in a system without a central financial policy. Until such time as power to decide financial policy rests in Brussels then the Euro will just drift from one crisis to another. What do we get instead, another band aid being put onto a severed limb!
The sensible thing to do is to announce that the ECB will take over Eurozone financial policy and dole out funds to national governments as needed. Following this announcement, there would no doubt be a major outcry, but it was known from the start where a common currency would lead to and any nation which doesn't wish this should be given a one time opt out option to get rid of the Euro and create a national currency again (covering all incurred expenses out of national budgets) only after this action is taken will the Euro truly become the strong and stable currency that it should be.
As for this idea of using money from the national pension reserve fund to cover debts.... what clowns have come up with this policy? Pension funds are made up of the money that workers have paid during their working life to guarantee them a comfortable retirement and are not money for governments to use when they want to. We hear lots of talk about pension crisis right now, the only reason there is a pension crisis is because of short sighted and down right stupid policies of using pension funds as part of regular government spending budgets!
The time has come for major changes to take place both in the way that the Euro is run, the way that government funding is handled (governments should only be allowed to use the money that they have coming in and NOT take on debts) and perhaps the most important, the rich bankers and others who created this financial mess in the first place should be forced to pay the bills and not the taxpayer. I for one am sick and tired of paying for the mistakes of others all the while knowing that they are living the life of Reilly at my expense and telling me to be happy with my lot, oh and by the way, sorry angryfinlandfff, but even though you have been paying contributions to the national pension fund for the last 50 years, you can't retire and get a pension because we have spent all the money!!!
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#119. At 08:16am on 01 Dec 2010, Angryfinlandfff
A common fiscal policy is one of those ideological dreams that is fatally flawed, just look at any medium/large nation and see the internal disputes between its regions as to who gets what. Look at the way politics is perpetually used to decide which regions profit the most. Look at the way the Labour heartlands in the North have profited during the last thirteen years, this happens everywhere, look at federal Belgium at the moment. Do you honestly believe that a EU fiscal policy would not be an even bigger mess as if it is difficult within a medium size nation it is impossible within a continent.
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@119 Angryfinlandfff
"The sensible thing to do is to announce that the ECB will take over Eurozone financial policy and dole out funds to national governments as needed. Following this announcement, there would no doubt be a major outcry, but it was known from the start where a common currency would lead to and any nation which doesn't wish this should be given a one time opt out option to get rid of the Euro and create a national currency again (covering all incurred expenses out of national budgets) only after this action is taken will the Euro truly become the strong and stable currency that it should be."
I abolutely disagree. This wasn`t known from the very start.
With the introduction of the Euro, nations like Portugal, Spain, Ireland or Greece suddenly got their hands on much cheaper credit. And what did they do? Instead of using it to consolidate their financial situation by using the lower interest rates to decrease debt, they rather increased it, building their economic growth on debt and public spending.
If I had to put the essence of the EU into one sentence:
President Herman Van Rompuy, who was not empowered by democratic vote, has a higher salary than the US-President.
I quite enjoyed Nigel Farage`s speech in the EU-parliament on this subject.
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Re post 119, Angryfinlandfff
"The inherent weakness in the Euro is that a Europe wide currency is being used in a system without a central financial policy. Until such time as power to decide financial policy rests in Brussels then the Euro will just drift from one crisis to another. What do we get instead, another band aid being put onto a severed limb!
The sensible thing to do is to announce that the ECB will take over Eurozone financial policy and dole out funds to national governments as needed. Following this announcement, there would no doubt be a major outcry,"
Well I agree with the last part. Do you not feel a little bit worried that you are advocating surrendering the ability of sovereign nations to control their own finances to a supranational unelected body?
I am worried that the E.U. will use this crisis to further centralise powers away from nations and towards the centre and democracy will be the poorer for it. Action needs to be taken as the increasing rise in bond prices for the struggling eurozone countries will make the situation tenable. However we need to draw back from making a bad situation even worse. A central body will almost certainly be dominated by the interests of France and Germany. It will be less concerned, and certainly not accountable, as to what happens to countries such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
I am thinking that the money currently be used to prop up countries struggling in the eurozone should be used to help them in an orderly withdrawal from the Euro. Their currencies will undoubtedly struggle initially and fall in value but such as devaluation is desperately wanted to stimulate exports for them
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Re derogatory comments 'bout Ukrainian blond nurses taking care of...
"While China is famous for being the first choice for many industries looking to outsource their work to cheaper overseas labour markets, Beijing has in turn increasingly looked to Ukraine to provide subsystem components and improvements to its Russian-designed weapon systems. The former Soviet republic has now become the sole source for several types of critical defence technologies that are now central to several major Chinese programmes"
[first posted to http://jdw.janes.com - 25 November 2010]
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Look who it is that is currently controlling how your money is being spent! It is most certainly not democratically elected bodies, but rather money grabbing rich fat cat bankers. They are the ones who got us into this mess in the first place, and you can be sure that they are the ones who will profit from taxpayers money being spent to try and sort the mess out.
As for the EU taking powers away from national governments, as far as I can make out, the sooner the EU becomes a true union the better. I have always and will no doubt remain a firm advocate of the creation of a United States of Europe. This should have a democratically elected president and parliament, both of which were actually planned and would have been set up if not for propaganda from small minded people encouraging others that do not know any better to vote against the change. Instead what we have today is a large complicated and mostly unworkable hodgepodge of a system.
As I said in my earlier post, any nations which do not want to take part in this would and should be given a one time chance to get out and stay out.
What I advocate is that all citizens of Europe pay taxes straight to the EU at a standard fixed rate which is equal for all, and then that money is divided out again equally to all member states to spend as they wish. Member states could continue to collect their own taxes as well, similar to the way that regional authorities do now. At the same time, I advocate scrapping of such blunderbusses as the CAP and instead we all pay the correct price for food based upon the cost of production. This would clear the playing field for everybody and open up a truly competitive European market.
Also, I advocate a rule being created that ALL public bodies are forbidden from living beyond their means, this means that governments, regional authorities and the EU will only be able to spend what they have coming in from taxes etc. and will no longer be able to take on debts, thus avoiding a repeat of the mess we are in now. Further to this, private companies would be barred from receiving governmental bail outs in the future, thus meaning that they are either profitable or they fail. This is the only way to guarantee that ordinary workers are not going to pay for future mistakes made by bankers!
Oh and for the record, national pension funds should be made untouchable!
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To Gavin and all the people which contribute on this Blog.
The solution is simple the meaning of playing the long game must be the full political union of the member of the Euro zone with the final say on expenditure - taxation and planning.
The USA is made up from a large number of states with a great difference on
their economy and need bat the Dollar work because the USA have a central government.
Europe must do the same and set a date in the near future for this to be achieved.
John
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# 122. At 08:57am on 01 Dec 2010, one step beyond wrote:
"I am worried that the E.U. will use this crisis to further centralise powers away from nations and towards the centre and democracy will be the poorer for it. Action needs to be taken as the increasing rise in bond prices for the struggling eurozone countries will make the situation tenable. However we need to draw back from making a bad situation even worse. A central body will almost certainly be dominated by the interests of France and Germany. It will be less concerned, and certainly not accountable, as to what happens to countries such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
I am thinking that the money currently be used to prop up countries struggling in the eurozone should be used to help them in an orderly withdrawal from the Euro. Their currencies will undoubtedly struggle initially and fall in value but such as devaluation is desperately wanted to stimulate exports for them".
I entriely agree. The Euro has been managed with the needs of Germany and France in mind, not small nations like Ireland or Portugal. The present crisis has shown once and for all that "the one size fits all" interest rate is damaging and destabalises countries within the Eurozone that need a different interest rate to achieve growth and sustained prosperity.
The Euro has also given many of the econmoies of the Eurozone an overvalued currency. Externally their exports (especially tourism) are uncompetitive and within the Eurozone, they cannot compete with Germany. The Eurozone has given them the worst of all worlds. TRying to keep them in the Eurozone will not change any of the fundamental reasons why the single currency is not working for them. It never will work for them.
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John, I am in complete agreement with you!
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#125 - john
Can't be done. Estonia claims to have met the criterea for membership of the Euro. Latvia, Lithuania, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Poland have not. Sweden has no intention of doing so and UK and Denmark have an opt out. Under your scenario, they would all have to leave the EU. Monaco, San Marino, Andorra, Montenegro, Kosovo and the Vatican all use the Euro but are not in the EU. They would presumably have to join the not so superstate. No it has to be all 27 or nothing at all.
I see no reason why the Benelux countries, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal should not merge if they want to. Of course, the Flemmings, the Wallons, the Catalans, the Basques, the Sardinians, the Corsicans and quite possibly the North Italians would want to join as autonomous regions and everyone else would have to reform EFTA. It would not work.
I have been an EU enthusiast for a long time but I have most definitely fallen out of love with the federal superstate notion. Many people feel the same way and you would never get it by the people in referenda and you certainly could do it without a mandate. Heavens, Lisbon would not have passed had the people been asked.
Its a non-starter, at least until the Euro zone gets its act together.
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threnodio II wrote: "Make no mistake, energy resource are the new gold and those of us with access to them will begin to hold the whip hand as against densely populated low resourced countries."
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, anybody?
[look at connectors and a new pipeline from above mentioned countries to both Europe and China, bypassing spigots of both: Russia and Iran.
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Threnodio:
"Sweden has no intention of doing so and UK and Denmark have an opt out."
Norway nad Greenland don't have any intention of joing EU, let alone- eurozone.
Let alone Switzerland and Lichtenstein.
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Re: oil/has being a present day gold...
Even such renowned cartographers as Nik the Greek might want to look at this map of a pipeline from Kazakhstan to China.
Bypassing both: Russia's and Iran's spigots.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File
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Re post 24, AngryFinlnadfff you said -
'Also, I advocate a rule being created that ALL public bodies are forbidden from living beyond their means, this means that governments, regional authorities and the EU will only be able to spend what they have coming in from taxes etc. and will no longer be able to take on debts, thus avoiding a repeat of the mess we are in now.'
At first glance this simple solution sounds enticing and if wanted could be done on a nation state basis without the E.U. However like many simple solutions it is not that simple and probably not a solution.
Governments should save money in the good times but may need to borrow money in lean times. When you have a world wide recession there are less people working and so less taxes paid. On the other side there are more unemployed so more benefits paid out. In your scenario I assume you will just say tough and those not working will have to go without. Similar course of action took place during the great depression of the 1930's. Governments reduced spending, people starved and the economy went into a downward spiral. Is that what you are advocating?
I am all for prudent economic management, but this should be under the control of the nation state and not under the straight jacket of an arbitrary set of rules issued from a supra national institution
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Alice, this one's for you :-)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11883149
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History shows us that there will be economic ups and downs. The job of governments is to save during the good times and to use the savings during the bad times, as to be honest is the job of companies, institutions, and indeed the individuals who make up the population. No I am not calling for a repeat of the 1930's, merely for everybody to start to live within their means. This means a move away from the current culture of everything being dependent on debt and spending every penny we get and to one where we save what we can in preparation for the times when we don't have.
Personally I see no difference between rules being placed by a local authority, national government or supra national institutions. In the current system it is the big bankers that will make the decisions anyway!
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#124. At 09:53am on 01 Dec 2010, Angryfinlandfff
"What I advocate is that all citizens of Europe pay taxes straight to the EU at a standard fixed rate which is equal for all"
Your idea is once again an ideology, often touted here by the fans of ever closer union, but it is once again flawed for one very simple reason, the high taxation countries like Germany. Equalising to a mid stream tax rate will mean Germany loses too much tax revenue and Social revenue, which would effect its entire modus operandi. Only all other countries adopting the same taxation and Social security regime as Germany could avoid a levelling down, and that would be impossible, if not fatal, for even the non-struggling countries.
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I commend to everyone BBC24 NEWS 'HardTalk'.
For an open demonstration of EU Leadership head-in-the-sand denial of fact, unbelievable political' smugness, and shere calculted insult to millions upon million of suffering EUro-zone Citizens the discussion between Christine Lagarde (Paris), Dick Roche (Dublin) & Stephen King (London) is a classic.
It should be shown repeatedly on every EUropean Channel.
This is the calibre of the Political-Economic leadership informing the policies of the EU: A trio at one with the mantra, "EU is good! All else is bad!"
A trio whose indifference to the suffering of ordinary people and complacent self-regard for the EUro-project to go on without a shred of Citizen support astonishes even an old cynic like me!
Legarde pronouncing that, 'ever closer union' is inevitable; Roche declaring 'our unity is our strength' and King observing wrily, 'the senior Bond holders will never be held to account'.
These 3, ably questioned by BBC's Sarah Montague, couldn't stop themselves rehearsing all the good things that had emerged from the Greek & Irish crisis, they filled the screen with complacent agreement of how 'new' Fiscal oversight policies were the recipe for everything!
Roche & Lagarde's comment on sovereignty, '..it is given up when you join the club... members will accept no other course of action.'
Hmm, and the Citizens' voice in all that 'ever closer union'?
None of the 3 had anything to say on that because the People and their views & perspectives were not mentioned once by any of the 3. Apparently that small detail of the Democratic Rights of the Citizens doesn't figure in the grand scale of the EU-Brussels entity!
Montague's query, 'What if Portugal, Spain or other are next... how can Germany keep paying the lions share?' Brushed aside as not even worth considering.
Montague's challenge, 'Is Germany blamed for its Fiscal policy?' Not even answered.
Montague's suggestion, 'A change of Government in Ireland will show Irish don't agree with the policy?' Roche actually replied, 'Whatever the Government they will do precisely the same.'
King, Lagarde, Roche, '..5 years from now the EU project will be even stronger.. more legislation... more loss of sovereignty... more EU..'
Ah, so much for Accountability, Responsibility, Representation!
EU Democracy in action = It makes a person weep it's such a crock of bu##sh##!
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Now, I understand that EU crisis is all important.
But have we forgotten about a calamitous man-made global warming?
What are we going to do about THAT?!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11883714
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Re #135. At 11:46am on 01 Dec 2010, Buzet23 wrote:
"124. At 09:53am on 01 Dec 2010, Angryfinlandfff
"What I advocate is that all citizens of Europe pay taxes straight to the EU at a standard fixed rate which is equal for all"
Your idea is once again an ideology, often touted here by the fans of ever closer union, but it is once again flawed for one very simple reason, the high taxation countries like Germany. Equalising to a mid stream tax rate will mean Germany loses too much tax revenue and Social revenue, which would effect its entire modus operandi. Only all other countries adopting the same taxation and Social security regime as Germany could avoid a levelling down, and that would be impossible, if not fatal, for even the non-struggling countries."
So painfully obvious, so obviously avoided by all 'pro-EU' who find any admission of a 'weakness' in the Federal EU project impossibly painful.
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"About 300 schools are shut, bus services have been suspended in Sheffield, Rotherham, and Doncaster, and there are delays and cancellations on train services between Sheffield and Leeds, as well as flights being halted at Robin Hood Airport in Doncaster."
margaret, is this the Robin you were referring to earlier? :-)
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"Halfords said an additional 16,600 sledges were being shipped in to meet increased demands."
Alice, could your compatriots possibly help?
I know they're overheating heavily at minus 10 Celsius, but still...
And Yukka, how about leasing some of them reindeers?
Global warming is not a joking matter. :(
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Stop this "euro" discussion and go directly to the heart of the issue. The problem was never the "value" of currency. The problem for countries like Greece and Portugal is being directly imposed a blockage to the exploitation of their ressources and/or setting of evident traderoutes. Be it losing with an expensive euro, they would still be on the positive had they been ever free to chose their direction in business. Forget about the euro not helping them - it is true that it hit hard but it far from being the real root cause. Now the problem of Ireland is more than ressources and traderoutes - it is the victim of a bigger scum, far bigger than 10 Greeces and 20 Portugals and the sooner the Irish comprehend, the better for them.
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#141
"and the sooner the Irish comprehend, the better for them"
Well I hope our Irish friends have better luck than I did...
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#140
powermeerkat;
"Alice, could your compatriots possibly help?"
"And Yukka, how about leasing some of them reindeers?"
I think Polish hot air might be more useful, given that there seems to be an endless supply of it.
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re #143 Any specific examples?
or simply hot air coming from some freezing parts? :)
The Portuguese government has reiterated that it will not require a European Union-led bail-out.
Prime Minister Jose Socrates made the comments, saying that what the country needed instead was confidence in its economy.
And I though Socrates was a wise man.
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I heard on the news today that Italy might imminently be requiring a bailout , to the tune of 350billion . What do fellow participants think of that ?
Euro enthusiasts can think and dream what they like ; but the Euro and EU have run aground , it is a matter of time before their demise .
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charlie, how do you dig a grave in a permafrost without an endless supply of hot air?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-11875131
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I am an ardent European, but:
1. I don't trust gas supplies that pass through Russia. And I don't trust European leaders who want all the lines to pass through Russia.
2. The problems of Greece, Ireland and who next have arisen from the Euro. The UK isn't in-line through the happy accident of not joining. With the Euro, the accumulation of debt was inevitable. And still the Eurozone has no long-term solution. I hate to say it, but the Thatcher idea of running parallel currencies might have been a lot better even though it seemed stupid at the time.
3. Ever closer union? With whom and in what? The WikiLeaks info on our various leaders is kind to them. If we cannot do better at operating democracy in our own countries what sort of mess would we produce together?
4. An item I don't comprehend: why does EU discussion stimulate so much rampant and inevitably ugly nationalism?
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charlie.
I know you've been waiting for that news for a long time, so here it is:
European planemaker Airbus is to invest more than 1bn euros ($1.3bn; £840m) to replace the engines on its A320 single-aisle planes.
"Airbus are doing this because their airline customers want them to do it and because they are worried about the competition from Canada's Bombardier CSeries and from the Chinese-made Comac C919," said Paul Sheridan, aviation analyst with Ascend Worldwide"
And, may I add, from the Brazilian Embraer, which is doing exceedingly well in the EU market.
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138. At 12:18pm on 01 Dec 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
"124. At 09:53am on 01 Dec 2010, Angryfinlandfff
""""What I advocate is that all citizens of Europe pay taxes straight to the EU at a standard fixed rate which is equal for all""""
"""Your idea is once again an ideology, often touted here by the fans of ever closer union, but it is once again flawed for one very simple reason, the high taxation countries like Germany. Equalising to a mid stream tax rate will mean Germany loses too much tax revenue and Social revenue, which would effect its entire modus operandi. Only all other countries adopting the same taxation and Social security regime as Germany could avoid a levelling down, and that would be impossible, if not fatal, for even the non-struggling countries.""""
I understood the basis of your argument and at first sight, is very logical CBW. Little remark - we have to take the example of Germany as a theoretical one and not as a literal one since in reality Germans' social welfare contribution is on the average of the EU scale and so is their EU-contribution i.e. the % of salary that each German pays to the EU. The country that historically (and still does today...) by far had the highest % of contribution to the EU is Greece with Greek working people giving an impressive nearly 2 times larger % of their salaries to EU than Germans and 3 times larger than British. As such it is bound British won't be willing that this changes as it can change only upwards and Germans too are also reserved as the % risks going up rather than staying neutral for them.
What is interesting though to add in the equation is not just what % is taxed but also what % of that re-enters to the country. Eg. superficially the Greek impressive double and triple EU taxation can be justified by means of Greece visually receiving many more funds than other countries. However as explained repeatedly and very extensively in the past, a very large part of it is simply not even enterring the country since it goes directly to feed EU corporations outside the country which not only work in civil projects inside the country but actually propose them and direct funds towards their direction.
Now whether your argument - though having some logic - is of absolute basis that is still discussable. A first point is that even if EU countries had no EU-taxation they would maintain differentiated tax & welfare systems so having there a levelled EU-tax fixed for all countries changes absolutely nothing: it is still up tot eh countries to decide on their taxation and welfare policies. Germany might not like to having its EU tax agumented (as per our example) but certainly does not mind the standard increased saying in Europes traderoutes at the expense of other smaller countries that if being out would not have to follow and would establish their routes in collaboration with (most possibly) other partners than Germany.
In my opinion a levelled tax is much more closer to being fare than having these variations. If a country esteemed that it loses too much it has to ponder stepping out as well (eg. us should be fist if not having by now to meet grave geopolitical dangers...).
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@132 one step beyond
"Similar course of action took place during the great depression of the 1930's. Governments reduced spending, people starved and the economy went into a downward spiral. Is that what you are advocating?"
I don`t mean to offend you personally, but...this is what happens, when people without a hunch of economics write about this kind of stuff.
The great depression had nothing to do with reduced government spending.
If anything, you could argue that the reduction of money supply aggravated the crisis.
Personally, I rather go with the thesis that the increase of money supply before the crisis and the resulting excess speculation bubble were a direct cause for the crisis.
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#148
powermeerkat;
Hey, dont use me as an exuse to post off-topic stuff! I'm not that interested in what engines are on an A320 lol. At least we now know why Boeing named the 787 the "Dreamliner", as the only way to see it is when you're asleep. I would suggest 787 "Flatliner" would be more accurate :)
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Huaimek wrote: I heard on the news today that Italy might imminently be requiring a bailout , to the tune of 350billion . What do fellow participants think of that ?
Euro enthusiasts can think and dream what they like ; but the Euro and EU have run aground , it is a matter of time before their demise .
I think the situation is still salvagable until it gets to SPAIN, whose bail out, according to the latest estimates, would require more than half a TRILLION euros.
What do posters from Germany think about that prospect?
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, WolfiePeters wrote:
I am an ardent European, but:
1. I don't trust gas supplies that pass through Russia. And I don't trust European leaders who want all the lines to pass through Russia.
Major Western oil companies, including American ones (Mobil, Chevron) wanted a a pipeline from Baku run through Russia (or, second best -Iran) as a shortest and cheapest route.
George Bush senior strongly objected and as a result both, oil and gas pipelines from Azerbaijan ran through Georgia to NATO Turkey (Ceyhan and Erzurum respectively).
From which they can continue up north via Bulgaria and Hungary.
The same will be the case with Nabucco.
Of course Chancellor Schroeder wanted all gas go through Russia, and he was rewarded for his loyalty by Gen. Putin with a well paying seat on GAZPROM's (specifically Nord Stream's) board.
[the other being occupied by a former high rank STASI officer).
I am sure you get a picture?
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"Ever closer union? With whom and in what?"
Wolfie, I assume it was a rhetorical question.
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champagne_charlie wrote:
#148
powermeerkat;
Hey, dont use me as an exuse to post off-topic stuff! I'm not that interested in what engines are on an A320 lol. At least we now know why Boeing named the 787 the "Dreamliner".
Tickets would be to expensive for you?
I sure hope not. [It's a very cheap plane to operate]
BTW. Only two Qantas A-380s are still flying.
[suspending all them would have been be too expensive]
Now, would you like to discuss the A-400M cost?
Or a disastrous Galileo project?
No, of course you wouldn't.
Although the issue is DIRECTLY connected to EUSSR financial woes]
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Through the minister of economy, Brüderle, the German government has today declared that it does not consider Portugal and Spain candidates for a bail out.
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"I would suggest 787 "Flatliner" would be more accurate :)"
That's what America-haters said about SR-71,B-1, F-22, B-2,V-22 and F-35.
Hope springs eternal. :)
P.S. If you're really interested in flatliners check reports about recent NHS horrendous incidents.
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@149 Nik
"I understood the basis of your argument and at first sight, is very logical CBW. Little remark - we have to take the example of Germany as a theoretical one and not as a literal one since in reality Germans' social welfare contribution is on the average of the EU scale and so is their EU-contribution i.e. the % of salary that each German pays to the EU. The country that historically (and still does today...) by far had the highest % of contribution to the EU is Greece with Greek working people giving an impressive nearly 2 times larger % of their salaries to EU than Germans and 3 times larger than British. As such it is bound British won't be willing that this changes as it can change only upwards and Germans too are also reserved as the % risks going up rather than staying neutral for them."
Fact1: per capita contribution in Germany is substantially higher.
Fact2: per capita net contribution balance in Germany is very negative.
Fact3: per capita net contribution balance in Greece is quite positive
"Germany might not like to having its EU tax agumented (as per our example) but certainly does not mind the standard increased saying in Europes traderoutes at the expense of other smaller countries that if being out would not have to follow and would establish their routes in collaboration with (most possibly) other partners than Germany."
What did you expect? That the biggest nation in Europe remains silent without acting in its own interests forever?
It`s apparently always Germanys fault.
Let me ask you:
1. did Germany force Greece or other small nations to join the Euro?
2. did Germany force Greece or other small nations to use the suddenly available cheap credit in order to even increase public debt?
3. does Germany stop Greece or other small nations from leaving the Euro?
4. why did the percentage of German exports within Europe go down since the Euro`s introduction.
How about you go and take a look at your own country before dishing out blame towards others.
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@powermeerkat
"I think the situation is still salvagable until it gets to SPAIN, whose bail out, according to the latest estimates, would require more than half a TRILLION euros.
What do posters from Germany think about that prospect?"
I think that our government will suck it up and "help" for a last and final time.
It`s the next in line, Italy, where the Euro will collapse.
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#155
powermeerkat;
Haha, reel him in. I thought you could take a little ribbing? Dish it out daily, with added schadenfreude, but can't take it? How disappointing.
And whats with that "tickets too expensive?" line. Millionaire you may be, but I thought you were better than that. Doubly disappointing.
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@156 Mathiasen
"Through the minister of economy, Brüderle, the German government has today declared that it does not consider Portugal and Spain candidates for a bail out."
His word can be trustes just as much as the Stability and Growth pact. I swear.
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# 122, one step beyond
# 126, busby2
Some of you seem to forget - or don't know - that except Germany no country was forced to establish/enter the euro zone. For Germany it was the price of reunification to pay to France's F. Mitterrand for his signature under the peace treaty. Germany was obliged to establish the euro zone with France and others in 1999 at latest.
Besides according to EU law no member state can be "thrown out" but each can leave at any time!
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#128 threnodio_II
I agree with you on your presumed results of nations' referenda. Many would vote against the EU.
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@ 153, powermeerkat
And, by coincidence, President Berlusconi (and ENI, AGIP) has the same view on gas pipelines as Chancellor Schroeder.
For interest, lower levels (engineers and others who don't count) in the US and UK oil companies have generally favoured Turkish routes.
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charlie, I thought you were referring to the Dreamliner remaining a dream for an average customer.
I'm sorry if you've intrepreted my comment in any other way.
BTW. If you'd like to be on one of its first flights send me an e-mail.
I am not exactly selfish. Or at least - not selfish enough.
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Re #159 DurstigerMann
I am not an expert on German economy but do you think Germany would actually have over half a TRILLION extra euros available for an emergency bail-out fund right now?
And was able to donate it to Spain without Angela Merkel's government collapsing?
I am genuinly interested in your assessment.
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WolfiePeters wrote:
@ 153, powermeerkat
And, by coincidence, President Berlusconi (and ENI, AGIP) has the same view on gas pipelines as Chancellor Schroeder.
And prem/pres. (forgot which at the moment) Putin, incidentally :-)
"For interest, lower levels (engineers and others who don't count) in the US and UK oil companies have generally favoured Turkish routes"
If for no other reason than that Turkey has never even dreamt about turning off spigots to exert pressure on anybody.
Unlike uur friends in Moscow.
But being interested in becoming a major oil/gas transfer hub.
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#161. At 3:19pm on 01 Dec 2010, DurstigerMann
Brüderle speaks on behalf of the German government. It is not his private viewpoint.
You can read an analysis in last week's edition of Die Zeit by Karin Finkenzeller. No one has the answer, but Finkenzeller's conclusion on the question about the survival of the Euro is: It is possible that it will be in another form, but many are fighting against it. In Frankfurt, in Berlin, in Brüssel and in Madrid. They will probably prevail. But it is not a matter of course.
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147. At 2:11pm on 01 Dec 2010, WolfiePeters wrote:
"""1. I don't trust gas supplies that pass through Russia. And I don't trust European leaders who want all the lines to pass through Russia."""
But right now you trust the Wahhabi Saoudis that fund islamic terrorism for the account of US. Your energy supply cruises on rusty ships around half the world's oceans through waves and pirates all while a healthy percentage of all what you spend ends up in Washington.
Perhaps you prefer giving your trust there. Me not.
None said that Europe has to become overdependent on Russian energy supplies. Europe has to diversify. It has to import oil ONLY for petrochemical products other than energy production or locomotion. It has to develop further nuclear and renewables depending on countries. And it has to replace the quantity of oil it uses for energy with natural gas because:
1) It is cheaper
2) It is more environmentally friendly
3) It is more long term
4) Russia linked to EU with North Stream and South Stream will be the most stable provider Europe can ever get.
You have to understand that with that link Russia will be bound to Europe and as such the Russian interest will be for Europe to do well and thus consume more. It will be an inevitable win-win situation out of which neither the westerners or the easterners will be able to escape from unless being interfered from outside, you know where from. The idea is not to remain in the surface, i.e. only energy commerce but to collaborate on all sectors namely the nuclear, the spatial and the military and there Russia and Europe are forming a fantastically complementary couple: Europe is strong in civilian projects, Russia in high tech military and spatial projects. Europe is overcrowded and lacking ressources, Russia is undercrowded and full of ressources.
Hence, saying that you have fears of Russia conquering Europe or somethig is something extremely naif or it is down to back-head aversion to Russians, i.e. good old western European petty nationalisms or even good old racism against anything slavic or orthodox. Pretending that it is all about Russian imperialism when you are in the bosom of the US which is on the other side of the world and which right now is on an immense geopolitical attack against Europe and possibly against your country (I ignore which one is), is simply void.
All I say is that Europe needs to turn to an anergy mix for the production of electricity of 60% nuclear, 20% renewables & 20% pipeline tansferred natural gas (LNG by ships is null - LPG is "nuller" as it is nothing different to petroleum, actually worse cos it needs modified infrastructure for no apparent benefit). For machines and cars locomotion, it has to phase out all gasoline dinos and stick to diesel running on a decreasing % of oil replaced by biofuels and most interestingly, what else, natural gas all while giving rise to electric cars. An electric car with a small 100km autonomy battery coupled with a small natural gas diesel generator multiplying by 5 its autonomy is ideal.
Out of the overall energy mix, gas should be around 30-35% of the energy mix. Europe can buy pipelined gas not just from Russia but also from the very nearby Libya and Algeria and as such have an alternative route. If Nabucco arrives too, then it will be for the best though mathematically it will have to work at loss since the Southstream being a least expensive project can never be beaten by a panting Nabucco arriving after having made as French say - " le parcours du combattant"!
"""2. The problems of Greece, Ireland and who next have arisen from the Euro."""
Absolutely not. Euro made certainly the situation much more difficult and hit hard these countries but it is not at the root of the problem. If such countries had the autonomy to play around according to their interests, they would be financially healthy even if they had a euro at a fixed price double the current rate. Economic problems have their roots and these are not down to simple curency mumbo-jumbo. In the case of Greece the big problems start by 1981 (time of official entry in the EU) when the US-funded PASOK socialist party arrived on power and smashed the production machine of the country to render it an importing nation dependent on EECthen EU funds and international debt.
"""And still the Eurozone has no long-term solution.I hate to say it, but the Thatcher idea of running parallel currencies might have been a lot better even though it seemed stupid at the time."""
The problem is that European dealer garage wanted to do all in the inverse. It wanted first to paint the car and then fix the engine and the components. No wonder now the car looks both bad and immobile.
"""3. Ever closer union? With whom and in what? The WikiLeaks info on our various leaders is kind to them. If we cannot do better at operating democracy in our own countries what sort of mess would we produce together?"""
Wiiiiikiiii! Ok. Sorry, we just had a big argument with my mate CBW on this!
"""4. An item I don't comprehend: why does EU discussion stimulate so much rampant and inevitably ugly nationalism?"""
Perhaps for the same reason you do not want Russian gas.
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Had St. Patrick been around in 2000 maybe he could have charmed the bankers out of their office and had them slither into the sea...snakes are snakes, even in suits.
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"Russia linked to EU with North Stream and South Stream will be the most stable provider Europe can ever get"
Nik, sorry , but I've already got that Kremlin press release the morning Mr. Putin appeared so upset about prospects of EU finally diversifying its energy sources.
And I get other Kremlin press releases every morning free of charge.
So perhaps you'd like to save youself trouble...
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#165
powermeerkat;
"BTW. If you'd like to be on one of its first flights send me an e-mail"
Chances are I'll be 6feet under before it ever becomes operational, but thanks for the offer. Mind you I do believe in reincarnation, chances are I'll come back as a bloody meerkat and be the first one to fly in the hold ;)
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Durstinger man, re
'I don`t mean to offend you personally, but...this is what happens, when people without a hunch of economics write about this kind of stuff.
The great depression had nothing to do with reduced government spending.
If anything, you could argue that the reduction of money supply aggravated the crisis.
Personally, I rather go with the thesis that the increase of money supply before the crisis and the resulting excess speculation bubble were a direct cause for the crisis.'
You don't offend me and I agree with much of your analysis as to the causes of the great depression. But not sure if you fully read my post, no where in my post did I suggest that Government reduced spending was a cause of it. I reproduce it again here
'Similar course of action took place during the great depression of the 1930's. Governments reduced spending, people starved and the economy went into a downward spiral. Is that what you are advocating?'
There are many parallel with the issues today, reduced Government spending did not cause problems, speculation and reckless lending were again contributory factors. However if Government spending is reduced too quickly then a double dip recession can occur. Obama seems to recognise this.
As you know the actual great depression started in 1929 and was a result of many things including stock market speculation and reckless borrowing. My point is that Government action during the depression in the '1930's' initially made the situation worse by reducing spending and of course reducing the money supply. There were other factors as economics is complicated but I prefer to keep my replies short to make a point. FDR's new deal did help a little but many argue it was still not enough and you could make a point that it was only the spending forced on nations by the second world war that finally ended this depression.
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Happybaby, re post 162
'122, one step beyond
# 126, busby2
'Some of you seem to forget - or don't know - that except Germany no country was forced to establish/enter the euro zone. For Germany it was the price of reunification to pay to France's F. Mitterrand for his signature under the peace treaty. Germany was obliged to establish the euro zone with France and others in 1999 at latest.
Besides according to EU law no member state can be "thrown out" but each can leave at any time!'
Having read my post again not sure rhe relevance of your reply. No where did I say any country was forces to join the euro. What I was argueing against was the suggestion of changing of the nature of it so that the financial decisions of each country would be controlled by the ECB.
Nor was I suggesting any member can be thrown out, what I said was
'I am thinking that the money currently be used to prop up countries struggling in the eurozone should be used to help them in an orderly withdrawal from the Euro. '
To make it clear this would follow a voluntary decision of member states to leave the euro. So do not see what your argument with me is or have I missed something?
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Nik @169
That’s a long reply.
I’m all in favour of bringing everyone closer, in any sense. But, I have a problem with any monopoly on energy supply, in fact any monopoly. Certainly, the Russian government has shown that it’s capable of closing the valves. It seems that some ‘politicians’ have pushed the Russian option for their own interest rather than the public. I’d suggest our most stable provider of gas is Norway. As for us moving to renewable and nuclear energy, I agree with you.
I assure you that I have no racist views against the Russian people or anyone else. I might ask: have you any experience of how the Russian oil and gas companies operate? You might like them, but they frighten me.
You suggest that expensive oil and gas sources cannot compete. Look at history. How has the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea competed with the Middle East? Very easily, without them, the Middle East oil price would have gone through the roof. Don’t you think that the price of gas from a Russian pipeline could do the same thing?
Why do I say the problems of Greece, Ireland and others trace back to the Euro? I suggest that the other points you mention have made the problem of the Euro develop faster for Greece, but it’s fundamentally there. A different set of points have made the Euro crisis evolve fast in Ireland. However, the common element is that the Euro inevitably leads to debt for countries that import more than they export. You swap Euros for VWs. The Eurozone allows Germany to make more VWs, it never runs out. But it doesn’t allow Greece or Ireland to print more Euros. So somewhere, banks, government, industry, public or private, there’s debt and it just keeps growing. The UK would be in the same boat, but it can print currency. If there’s not a lot of behind the scenes work, half a dozen more Euro countries will sooner or later hit the same wall.
And, since you seem to assume that I’m some sort of racist, I'll not claim otherwise as it seems sadly to be built into human nature. However, I’ve known and worked with many people from Islamic countries that for me are excellent individuals and in whom I have absolute trust. I’ve also known and worked with many people from many Christian countries (including Greece and Russia) that, again, for me are excellent individuals and in whom I have absolute trust. I can make the same statements about different skin colours.
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@166 powermeerkat
"
I am not an expert on German economy but do you think Germany would actually have over half a TRILLION extra euros available for an emergency bail-out fund right now?
And was able to donate it to Spain without Angela Merkel's government collapsing?
I am genuinly interested in your assessment."
I`m not saying that the German Federal Republic has that money.
First of all, Germany will not be the only nation to pay.
But of course, it will still be an excessive amount.
Secondly, I believe our government will initially refuse, but eventually submit to the pressure all around Euro to help.
There is also no doubt that Germany will have to indebt herself further in order to raise the funds necessary.
And, unlike the bailouts we are seeing now, this will hurt.
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@173 one step beyond
"'Similar course of action took place during the great depression of the 1930's. Governments reduced spending, people starved and the economy went into a downward spiral. Is that what you are advocating?'
There are many parallel with the issues today, reduced Government spending did not cause problems, speculation and reckless lending were again contributory factors. However if Government spending is reduced too quickly then a double dip recession can occur. Obama seems to recognise this."
What government spending exactly are you talking about?
As far as I know, there never was massive government spending before the New Deal. It was the ultimate victory of Keynianism, even though it quickly became corrupted and abused in order to justify the massive and rapid accumulation of national public debt.
Or are you talking about the restrictive monetary policy which cause the collapse of most financial institutions and the credit crunch?
Just one word: FED. The greatest criminal organization in history.
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There are a number of questions which arise over Spain. Yes, half a trillion is an awful lot of money and it is worth remembering that the ECB's resources will already have been further depleted because, if any of this happens, Portugal will have gone first. I would expect a rescue plan on that scale would not be one that the ECB would mount on its own. One imagines the IMF being involved as well.
The Euro members are basically interested in propping up the single currency. Let us not kid ourselves that any of this is about being good neighbours to a friend in need. A friend in need, as everyone knows, is usually a damned nuisance. And I must again underline that there is nothing charitable about this and that, sooner or later, the lenders - very properly in my view - will secure a good return on their investment.
What the ECB is basically doing is seeking to ensure the future stability of the currency by lending funds to countries with sovereign debt issues which is damaging their ability to raise funds in the bond market. They are not - or at least ought not to be in the business of bailing out banks. This line has already been blurred in Ireland's case because, while certainly there is a sovereign debt issue, it has been seriously exacerbated by Irish government guarantees given in the banking sector. A significant element in Spain's problem lies in the banking sector. The British should be looking quite anxiously at this too because Spanish banks have penetrated the UK market with, for example, Santander in control of Abbey National. So far, with the exception of Lehmann, no major institutions have been allowed to fail (although of course plenty of small local ones in the States have gone). The mentality that banks are simply too big to be allowed to fall must surely end soon.
My second point is that there will come a point when the central core of the Euro zone will decide that the whole project is simply no longer worth the pain. Somewhere in the queue that is forming for bailout, there lurks the straw that will break the camel's back. The pressure to go so far and no further will come not from the markets but from the streets. Underwriting a significant share of a half trillion bailout might make sense in terms of their single currency project but the will to do so is going to start looking very lean if it becomes clear that to do so amounts to political suicide.
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We must all remember that this economic downfall is all Dollars fault. Nobody's else's, but Dollars.
I was just looking USA's editorial cartoons and they seems to be forgetting this fact. We are all in this mess because of Dollar and it's banks. There is nobody else to blame. Especially Euro. EURO is here the HERO. The one that saves Europe against Dollars flaws. Euro is the only helper for european taxpayers.
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To happybaby (162):
That is not actually true. The Maastrict Treaty obligates all EU countries, except UK and Denmark that have an opt-out, to join the currency union. Not joining the currency union can and probably will in the near future be judged as an serious breach of treaty obligations.
In case of France and Germany, Germany wasn't forced by France to commit to the currency union, Germany willingly traded an promise to join the currency union in exchange for France to give support for the German unification. If you are going to say that Germany was forced into the currency union, by that same logic France was forced to support German unification. So how is it?
Then there is the thing that promises made by leaders of countries to each others aren't legally binding. Kohl and Mitterand were free to promise what ever to each others, but that didn't create any legal obligation that their governments and countries would have to obey.
No, in reality currency union was one of the things under discussion when governments negotiated about the single market. In the end they arrived into a satisfactory out come for all that included the single currency in a single market. This negotiation outcome was so good that all member states accepted it.
Serious talk about Germany being forced into the single currency belongs to the same dust bin as stab in the back.
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Re #149. At 2:20pm on 01 Dec 2010, Nik wrote:
"138. At 12:18pm on 01 Dec 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
"124. At 09:53am on 01 Dec 2010, Angryfinlandfff
""""What I advocate is that all citizens of Europe pay taxes straight to the EU at a standard fixed rate which is equal for all""""
"""Your idea is once again an ideology, often touted here by the fans of ever closer union, but it is once again flawed for one very simple reason, the high taxation countries like Germany. Equalising to a mid stream tax rate will mean Germany loses too much tax revenue and Social revenue, which would effect its entire modus operandi. Only all other countries adopting the same taxation and Social security regime as Germany could avoid a levelling down, and that would be impossible, if not fatal, for even the non-struggling countries.""""
I understood the basis of your argument and at first sight, is very logical CBW.
Now whether your argument - though having some logic - is of absolute basis that is still discussable.
In my opinion a levelled tax is much more closer to being fare than having these variations. If a country esteemed that it loses too much it has to ponder stepping out as well (eg. us should be fist if not having by now to meet grave geopolitical dangers...)."
Yeah, as with so much of Your 'understanding' Nik, You are completely at odds with the factual reality of the situation.
E.g. I DID NOT write #124 and my #138 was a REPLY to Buzet23's at #135!
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158. At 3:09pm on 01 Dec 2010, DurstigerMann wrote:
@149 Nik
"I understood the basis of your argument and at first sight, is very logical CBW."
ThirstyT: Please do not associate me with the ideas at #124 (Nik is wholly mistaken); I did not write.
I did not agree with it as my #138 makes clear.
Cheers.
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#122
"A central body will almost certainly be dominated by the interests of France and Germany."
Comments like these insinuate that this is what Germany wanted.
I simply wanted to point out that Germany has to defend now (the Euro) what it didn't want (at least not so soon).
"... that the money currently be used to prop up countries struggling in the Euro zone should be used to help them in an orderly withdrawal from the Euro."
Yes, but it is up to t h e m to ask for a withdrawal. As I said no one can be forced to leave.
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#178. At 7:12pm on 01 Dec 2010, threnodio_II
The match between Alice's St Petersburg and Anderlecht was on the TV tonight here and the one thing I noted was that the playing field was totally frozen and unplayable, but they played, it reminded me of what is happening within the EU. It is getting ridiculous that both sport and politics and most other things are ignoring what to most is obvious, in other words if the conditions are too bad you stop. In the case of the Euro that is even more the case as it should never have been created with countries that could not meet the convergence criteria.
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#179. At 7:28pm on 01 Dec 2010, Pate
Neo, you are truly the one, I thought Walter Mitty was fantasy but you have taken it to a new level.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
"#185. At 8:24pm on 01 Dec 2010, Buzet23 wrote:
Neo, you are truly the one..."
Yes I know. And you all are the wrong ones. You are all blindfolded by yellow press. Dollar is all to blame. If one got one simply functional brain cell, one would know that.
My hero is EURO. We are the smart European bank countries. The smart banks, not stupid American ones.
Your heros might be them: Blair, Hillary, Nixon, Kissinger, Obama and George Walker Bush, the burnie bush one, from the bible. Mine is Euro, the smart current.
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A German view of Euro withdrawal
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,731798,00.html
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#188 and #189,
I really don't know which of you is more foolish, and it's curious after the recent events that you both write at the same time. What happened did the ward give the two of you a night pass or is the asylum strapped for cash after the (non existent) crisis with the Euro?
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#189
quietoaktree;
"It is most disturbing that I had the Holocaust in mind and not only the deported British children. "
What is disturbing, is putting those two events in the same sentence. Hasty and irresponsible indeed. Evil and sick even. Mods? Are you asleep? Or incompetent?
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Re #189
Just mindless T & G.
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188. At 9:43pm on 01 Dec 2010, Pate wrote:
"..you all are the wrong ones. You are all blindfolded by yellow press. Dollar is all to blame. If one got one simply functional brain cell, one would know that."
Lucky for all us dullards then that pate is there to point to the error of our ways.
Oh but wait! (1) How could we be expected to understand pate's perspective when we're sharing the 'one brain cell'?
Oh but wait! (2) How could pate be expected to understand our perspective when he's so busy accumulating brain cells?
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192. At 10:32pm on 01 Dec 2010, champagne_charlie wrote:
#189
quietoaktree;
"..Hasty and irresponsible indeed. Evil and sick even. Mods? Are you asleep? Or incompetent?"
I fear it is actually the MODS curse of the dreaded 'even-hand' & 'sense of balance': Whereby denigrating Britons/English without any substance or verification is seen as the duty of the alleged British Broadcasting Corporation.
However, IMO 'CENSORSHIP' on these blogs is wrong and it is a 'curse'/'price' of that principle.
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188. At 9:43pm on 01 Dec 2010, Pate wrote:
"Your heros might be them: ...the burnie bush one,...."
Unsure who/what this is a reference to, pate?
Did You mean
A) as in Biblical, 'burning bush' in which case 'Moses' and an astonishing & worrying turn of phrase by You!?
B) 'Bernie Kerik', friend of George W Bush & a not too reliable 'friend' at that!?
C) to just give George W Bush a sort of nickname!?
D) none of the above!?
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@180 Jukka Rohila
"In case of France and Germany, Germany wasn't forced by France to commit to the currency union, Germany willingly traded an promise to join the currency union in exchange for France to give support for the German unification. If you are going to say that Germany was forced into the currency union, by that same logic France was forced to support German unification. So how is it?"
Words cannot describe what I am thinking right now. This must be the most stupid analogy I`ve ever read on this blog. Congratulations.
*facepalm*
"Then there is the thing that promises made by leaders of countries to each others aren't legally binding. Kohl and Mitterand were free to promise what ever to each others, but that didn't create any legal obligation that their governments and countries would have to obey."
Kohl and Mitterand were friends and Kohl dreamed of his future grandeur: Master of German reunification and European integration.
Doesn`t change the fact that the German parliament was blackmailed.
PS: you better not move in with your gf or wife, because it will make me feel forced to support your small unification.
But if you hand me over your wallet, I might rethink my position. :)
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Re #196
Mindless T & G.
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CBW
I believe some European ´Royals´ were not adverse to Fascism ?
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Re #201
Mindless T & G!
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So far as I am aware King George VI's opinion was adverse to fascism as was that of his wife the late Queen Mother.
It is my understanding his daughter, Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth 11, by the grace of God, of Great Britain, Ireland and the British Dominions beyond the Seas, Queen Defender of the Faith, Duches of Edinburgh, Countess of Merioneth, Baroness Greenwich et cetera.. et cetera... is also adverse to fascism along with her husband and childen including the 2 direct heir to the Crown.
Personally, I am averse to this discussion as it is all T & G!
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powermeerkat;
"BTW. If you'd like to be on one of its first flights send me an e-mail"
Chances are I'll be 6feet under before it ever becomes operational, but thanks for the offer. Mind you I do believe in reincarnation, chances are I'll come back as a bloody meerkat and be the first one to fly in the hold ;)
charlie, I hope you'll be still alive and&well when "Dremaliner" becomes operational (within next 12 months), but if you come back as a meerkat I promise you I'll buy an extra seat and put you in cello case, rather than allowing you to freeze in a cage in a cargo bay.
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#195 Cool_Brush_Work
Regarding moderators and censorship ; I used at one time to participate in the European Commission Blog " Europa ". Blogs ground down to comments that were exclusively personal , viscious and offensive . The moderators did nothing about it . I came under fire my very first day , because an ardent EU woman supporter thought I was Thai and therefore had no right to contribute to an EU blog . The woman sent me a very rude private message ; to which I replied privately in a lighthearted , jockula , leg pulling vein . She then publicly accused me of sending her a private message , to which I gave a very straight answer , pulling no punches . Even some very civil , well informed commentors were shocked at the strenght of my rebuke to a woman . The European commission has stopped that blog . It was supposed that people would write encouraging blogs and comments on the EU . As here , it was quite the opposite , further became completely monopolised by a young chinese who enjoyed playing "Devil's Advocate" .
For Better for worse , I think we are better to have moderators who at lease to some extent do their job and keep control of the participants .
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It would be difficult to know how many countries might now have in mind leaving the Euro . The Italian minister Moroni openly suggested Italy leave in 2005 . The problems of leaving the Euro perhaps outweigh the problems of remaining in . A country that leaves , will feel to be
" Between the Devil and The Deep Blue Sea ", an abysse , like the great depression , there former currency worthless . They will be up against the commission blackmail , that they are letting down the other countries , endangering the Euro . Perhaps now , it is too late to speculate , better to hold on till the Euro collapses by itself and all the member countries are in the same boat . There is going to come a point when the people will stand no more of it , will revolt , throw out their government .
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Re #206 "The Italian minister Moroni openly suggested Italy leave in 2005"
He's name is really Moroni or is it a joke?
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#207 powermeerkat
I see your point Hahaha , but that really is his name , I believe spelt correctly .
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Pate,
Blame all you want if it makes you feel better--how can you though put the blame on EU nations' bad debts All on the USA?
..probably easy.."How can people be so heartless...be so cold?" ...from "Easy to Be Hard" from "Hair"--1970s musical. (see the movie..its so well done!
The USA problems were perhaps just a *catalyst* that exposed how ruinous the EU nations debt problems really were.
Thank us, blame us, or pray we all go ...somewhere.."special" when we die:)))
But, um,....explain more fully before someone asks you whom all these nations are in debt TO? (bad grammar?..oh well)
Not us, or we'd be in a full depression...(all those bad loans)
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Now, we see why President Obama is looking towards China and the Pacific Rim nations and not Europe--it's less SCARY!
"Family" is great to have--unless they are financial liabilities.
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I'll pray for y'all though...hopefully former VP candidate Sarah Palin won't intercept the prayers and say .."nope sorry"--now THERE is.. someone to insult, Pate.
As a friend said of Ms. Palin--"she'd be a great "Pole Dancer" (again) if she could just find her missing pole!"
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@209 Stevenson
"Blame all you want if it makes you feel better--how can you though put the blame on EU nations' bad debts All on the USA?
The USA problems were perhaps just a *catalyst* that exposed how ruinous the EU nations debt problems really were."
Well, there are economists who put a lot of blame for all the ills on the USA, most notably the Austrian School.
And while I am not an avid and ideological follower of that school, I mostly agree with their assessment here.
The irresponsible monetary policy of the USA was the mean reason for the crisis of 2008. Much like the so-called great depression, most of the excess speculation was built on an unproportional increase in money supply.
There were politicians and experts in the USA who warned, amongst them expert economists.
Politicians and bankers laughed about them.
The Federal Reserve is the most criminal institution in history of mankind. Since its establishment in 1914, it has caused two big global depressions and has driven many millions of people into poverty.
It is this system that gave greedy European bankers the opportunities to do what they did.
By no means I want to defend European political leaders, bankers or whoever. In my eyes, they failed and betrayed their sovereign.
But all these criminal activities were built upon foundations created by the FED and incompetent/greedy US-politicians.
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@190 quietoaktree
"A German view of Euro withdrawal
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,731798,00.html"
It`s neither a "German view" nor an "expert view". It`s just a Pro-Euro ideologist spouting out nonsense.
German exports to Europe in percent decreased over the last decade. This means, percentual export figures were higher before the Euro.
There goes the myth of Germany being the main profiteer of the Euro.
In fact, the DM already was the leading currency of mainland Europe in 1990. That`s why the French wanted to push the Euro.
This means other nations on mainland Euro had no free control over their exchange rates anymore. They had to adapt to DM exchange rate changes.
Reality is that German exports to Europe are decreasing, while export figures to the new emerging markets like China and Brasil are going up fast.
Also, there is no scientifical evidence of exchange rate influencing foreign trade balances on the long run. It`s probably the biggest myth (or rather lie) about fiat currencies.
On page 5 he is writing about Europe ceding influence to China and the USA. But wait. With a "northern" Euro, who exacly would be ceding influence?
Let`s take a look at a possible "stable Euro":
Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden (I am pretty sure they both would join without the bankrupts in the union), maybe GB (still unlikely, but not unthinkable due to the reasons mentioned above), Finland and a few other possible candidas such as Poland, Tchech Republic, Slowenia.
Who exacly is missing except France and the bankrupters?
What a loss of influence, I guess we can`t do without Romania or Greece. =(
The Euro in its current form will fail and that`s why some of the mentioned suggestions on page 1 are important to discuss.
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179 - Pate
209 - Stevenson
212 - DurstigerMann
Playing the blame game at this stage is clearly about as logical as two people arguing about who caused a car crash while the third party is bleeding to death. It's a waste of time. To this extent, Pate is wrong. Neither will his idolisation of the Euro help. The Euro is having to be propped up with more and more resources as countries line up for assistance. Clearly, that view is naive and simplistic.
However - David - you cannot get away with passing the buck back to Europe. To the extent that it was US financial institutions which over lent on bad risks, they created the sub-prime situation and there is no getting away from that. Institutions have - short term - paid an egregious price for that. Neither can you actually blame those institutions for repackaging these debts and selling them on. The blame for that sits fairly and squarely with banks who did not do due diligence before buying them. Worse, the same thing happened in Ireland, which has led to the current crisis, and the UK which may just get away with it.
The truth is that the massive bubble which had been created was drifting along serenely and blissfully unaware that it was built on the myth of thoroughly irresponsible lending. Now you can either blame the bankers for that - in which case there is absolutely no doubt that the problem began in the States - or you can reach back to deregulation, unrestrained free market economics and to Reagan and Thatcher. I am not sure it matters because it cannot be put right and we should be looking to the future.
I am with DurstigerMan on this. There is more than a touch of truth in what the Austrian School says but I find it simplistic for precisely the reasons I gave above. You cannot rewrite history, only learn from it. We need fewer questions and more answers.
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79. At 4:02pm on 30 Nov 2010, DurstigerMann wrote:
"""@70 Nik
Here is the deal with Dutch and Danish people:
most of them are so polite, that they will rather say nothing than embarrass you or fight a useless verbal argument."""
They are so polite that at the end they do not interrogate at all and they have not much of an opinion apart 1-2 subjects nearby them. Sorry but the average French, Italian or Greek is globally much more informed than the average Dutch or Danish. I am not meaning harm to Dutch or Danish whom I highly esteem as highly cultured and very intelligent people - but in these matters they are not in their best. Its global conditions that indicate the interest of people in matters around them.
Just do an example: ask people around the continent their opinion on a major issue of the past decade, say 9/11, and you will get your answer as to who is more informed. Do your research in anonymity to incite norherners pass by their politeness.
88. At 4:40pm on 30 Nov 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
CBW wrote in reply: """Erm, here's a thought for You: Maybe people in ***Greece*** (& if You are an example there is NO 'maybe' about it), maybe people in ***Italy*** and maybe people in ***France*** AREN'T "MORE INFORMED"!?"""
We speak of average. And on average no matter the position of their countries in that list they are better informed than the citizens of many if not most of the countries who top the list.
"""No, Nik let us not do an experiment!
I recall You are the fellow that claimed as 2 of Your fellow countrymen had been beaten up in Sunderland most of the English 'working class' were thugs!"""
In Greece, no-one is beaten for having spoken another language. In Britain I have been attacked, these 2 guys had been attacked, my Austrian flatmate had been attacked by taxi-drivers for having joked somethign with 2 German friends ... no I won't expand that to the British working class but there is a trend there. If you do not want to admit it, it is understandable.
"""I recall You labelled the entire Albanian population 'thieves'!"""
Pfff... cheap effort to play the politically correct CBW. So what do you want me to do? Ignore 1000 years of looting tradition of the Albanians? Or the 10fold increase in criminality wherever Albanians set their foot? At the end, am I supposed to ignore what Albanians admit for themselves?
Sorry but it is Albanians themselves that call themeselves as "thieves". Go sort it out with Albanians first before sorting it out with me. Albanians historically have been in the Balkans the looter by excellence. Ever heard the term "Turkalbanian", ever wondered what is was all about? Many Albanians are quite proud of that tradition of theirs no matter if a large part of the Albanian society (mostly the orthodox Albanians, a bit less the catholics) do resent it and would like to present another image. The truth is however that everywhere Albanians went crime rates soared. This is the reality, it is not an accusation on them - smart people they are, good thing they do what they do if that brings them money: its capitalism. Now go ask your local police what happened in Britain when it received its own share of Kosovars.
"""I remember Your "..international scene.." includes diatribes of spite against Americans, Turkish, Jews etc."""
And who are Americans, Turks, Jews? The untouchables or something? Only Germans and Russians can be the bad guys?
"""It's not so long ago You were suggesting a Naval War between the UK & China over Gibraltar!"""
Me????? When????? I am confused now. I had ony suggested that the British interference in the Mediterranean is long overdue and it is time they pack their stuff and go back to their island. They might concentrate in sorting out their mess than speading mess elsewhere.
"""Only a week ago You were demanding the UK withdraw from Gibraltar despite overwhelming % of its Citizens voting in 2002 for Britain to remain!"""
After such a centuries long illegal occupation of Gibraltar it is bound that the citizens profiting from the British shield wil vote for it. I can do the same in Britain, not in a century but in a decade if you like. I invade Britain and chop up Cornwall. I kick out whom I want and keep the subservient then I treat them with lots of lovely thingies. They are bound to vote for remaining under my protection. Does that mean that Cornwall must belong to me for ever? Gibraltarians are not a nation nor have they ever been a historic existence even though the British control there dates for centuries. They are some British and some British-cooperating Spanish. As such whatever you say is void. It is a protectorate, that is all.
"""No matter what You may think of as Your unbiased views I don't see much evidence of that in any of Your contributions."""
"""I've read quite enough of Your summations of 'events' and 'peoples'."""
Stop being superficial. Stop being cheap-politically-correct. Go to the heart of the issues.
CBW wrote, """On the contrary Nik, that is the ideal environment for an Individual to come up with all sorts of nonsensical conspiracy theories because they do not have access to reliable Media sources."""
"""Well, first, I've never once mentioned "tree-hugging" nor "non-governmental mumbo-jumbo": I think You are confusing me with someone else on those things."""
Wikileaks is both tree-hugging and NGO mumbo jumbo. There you have guys that pretend to be unpaid volonteers who promise to have a worldwide team of specialists so capable as to by pass the national security in US and elsewhere. It takes not a lot to figure out. Think for once!
"""Second, I've referred to 'Wikileaks' because it is the main International storyline of the moment: It also happens to be a storyline that refers directly to all Your months of allegations about US-UK 'conspiracies' regarding Greece's 'geo-political' importance."""
Evidently it does not refer not even indirectly to all my "allegations" as you say. You claim this as proof of the inexistence of the things I mention on the geopolitical games of the Aegean-Black Sea region which is a zero argumentation since I am still searching to find out what convinced you that Wikileaks has already revealed the 100% of what is being discussed in US or any others' geopolics.
"""I referred to 'Wikileaks because there are thousands upon thousands of documents from Diplomats the world over representing the USA and contrary to everything You have claimed Greece ISN'T in the 'geo-political/'conspiracy'/'secret service'/'military'/'economic' sights of any!"""
1000s upon 1000s? It is the 100% or the 0,1%? Clipped or unclipped? Think for a change! I would be ashamed to bring such an argumentation as you do. Honestly and I mean no harm with this.
"""I cannot help You: You claim to read/see all sorts of 'Media', and yet when those Media are packed with details of the 'Wikileaks' apparently they are suddenly suspect and not to be accepted! And why are they suspect in Your mind? Because Greece is barely mentioned and You cannot accept that plain, undisguised, reality fact."""
You still do not understand anything about media.
"""I believe 'Wikileaks' to be valid, substantiated documentation that exposes much of the fantasy behind Your political beliefs. I do not expect You to agree."""
You believe also that 9/11 was the job of muslim terrorists and Bin Laden. What can I do for that CBW? How can I keep on argumentating at this level? But I won't avoid the answer once again: I believe that Wikileaks is yet another propaganda tool. Its info is carefully chosen and aims at guiding the public opinion where the true owners of the site wish. A site run by anonymous common citizens that host in complete anonymity the info passed by estranged US or other civil servants that wish to reveal to the world information to avenge their employers, to redeem their souls or for the shake of it and all that under the umbrella of volunteer IT specialists who can for a number of years now bypass the professional teams of a country like US whose military gav birth to these techs... is not even sci-fi... it is religion. And as a religion who can argumentate on it?
"""Others can make their minds up on this issue."""
I invite all people to sit down and think properly on it.
"""I make only one promise to You: 'Wikileaks' is only at the start of a massive process of revelation - - if it should transpire in time that Greece does figure prominently in US-Diplomatic documents I will apologise without reserve and eat as much humble pie as the internet allows - - I ask only 1 thing of You: That if it transpires Greece receives the modest mentions in US cables one anticipates for a relatively unimportant Nation You have the courage to accept You have been largely mistaken in Your 'geo-political' theories."""
I am not a man who refused to acknowledge his mistakes. On our issue, I wish Greece was out of the hot region but it is not. I do not understand why you base so much credit to Wikileaks and while I am being ironic above, I do invite you to be more suspicious of such type of media. Propaganda is not just about controlling the mainstream media but also (if not mostly) abut controlling fringe media as well as "revolutionary" tree-hugging media like Wikileaks. Propaganda is not made by saying 10/10 lies. It is made by saying 9/10 truths and 1/10 lie. Often it is just made by saying 9/10 truths omitting that 1/10 which completes the puzzle. The world is so complex that the mass of people who are not in the loop are not in position to make the right connections. I am not pretending to be in position to do so but I try.
"""(I should point out that IMO references to the Cyprus divide do NOT constitute any sort of 'geo-political' master-plan by the US or UK)."""
Did not comprehend that. The division was sought and was worked by Britain. Turkey has been all the way a stooge and could finally invade when things were already prepared by Britain and US. Britain had been working for that since the 1930s. What do you mean that there was no geo-political masterplan?
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Re #205. At 04:14am on 02 Dec 2010, Huaimek wrote:
"..I came under fire my very first day , because an ardent EU woman supporter thought I was Thai and therefore had no right to contribute to an EU blog . The woman sent me a very rude private message ; to which I replied privately in a lighthearted , jockula , leg pulling vein . She then publicly accused me of sending her a private message , to which I gave a very straight answer , pulling no punches . Even some very civil , well informed commentors were shocked at the strenght of my rebuke to a woman . The European commission has stopped that blog ."
Huaimek, I take Your point about Blogs descending to abuse: I'm far from innocent in the dishing it out stakes, but then I do maintain I tried for a year to avoid such responses and simply got worn down by repeated insults directed at me and the increasing number of comments that bore no relation to the topic other than as a method to belittle & attack Britain/England. The usual suspects have hardly altered (though 3 are now AWOL, DemocracyThreat, JorgeG1 & MarcusAureliusII).
As for Your 'private' message to other contributors I don't understand how or what that is about: I'd never reveal any personal 'link' details on this or any blog - - best to keep all these exchanges at a very technological arm's-length in my opinion.
Cheers.
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#216 Cool_Brush_work
I think you shouldn't rise to the bate . I know there are those whose whole purpose is to belittle , have a stab at Britain/England , the Royals and aristocracy . There are those whose opinions are misinformed and those who just make stupid irritating remarks . By responding to them , they feel they are making a useful contribution to the discussion . I know it is hard to resist sometimes , but I just pass them by , even if they refer to my comment .
Regarding the Europa blog , they had a direct send a private message to click on . I would never have thought of it had I not received a vitrolic E mail by that means ; on this blog we don't have any such facility .
I find it interesting that despite many EU governments being centre right , many of the EU's keenest suporters are clearly socialist or communist . The EU is verging on being a Communist Dictatorship , even if it doesn't mean to be .
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@217 Nik
"You believe also that 9/11 was the job of muslim terrorists and Bin Laden. What can I do for that CBW? How can I keep on argumentating at this level?"
What does it matter?
The war on Iraq was an illegal act of aggression, no matter what. With or without 9/11.
The engagement in Afghanistan, however, has my full support as long as there are people who want to live in freedom. Nobody gave a damn about repots how they executed women in public and stuff before 9/11.
Afghanistan was neither the Taliban`s homeland nor their possession and that is why the western troops are there rightfully, fighting so girls may be able to go to school and choose their own destiny in the future.
"Just do an example: ask people around the continent their opinion on a major issue of the past decade, say 9/11, and you will get your answer as to who is more informed. Do your research in anonymity to incite norherners pass by their politeness."
Why would they lose their cool over this topic? I don`t quite understand.
Are you hinting at the rising anti-muslim movements across Northern Europe?
I am not sure how the average Frenchman, Italian or Greek could be more informed than Scandinavians, whose English is substantially better on average.
A strong opinion does not necessarily reflect knowledge.
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219. At 1:58pm on 02 Dec 2010, DurstigerMann wrote:
"The war on Iraq was an illegal act of aggression, no matter what."
I'm not going to go into all this again, however that statement is simply untrue.
There is no legal decision/judgement that makes the campaign in Iraq illegal.
A disastrous strategy? Yes.
A disastrous decade for Iraqis? Yes.
A collapse of US-UK prestige? Yes.
A military conflict that led to the oustuing of a longterm, vicious brutal tyrant and his family regime? Yes.
An illegal action by the US-UK & other 'coalition of the willing'? No.
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215. At 12:16pm on 02 Dec 2010, Nik wrote:
"..Sorry but the average French, Italian or Greek is globally much more informed than the average Dutch or Danish. I am not meaning harm to Dutch or Danish whom I highly esteem as highly cultured and very intelligent people - but in these matters they are not in their best. Its global conditions that indicate the interest of people in matters around them.
Just do an example: ask people around the continent their opinion on a major issue of the past decade, say 9/11, and you will get your answer as to who is more informed. Do your research in anonymity to incite norherners pass by their politeness."
Tiresomely yet again: This is just laughable assumption and futile surmising by the greek!
What on earth makes him think he knows how well informed or uninformed entire people's are!?
It is just not worth debating such spectacularly presumptive powers of knowledge.
There is just nothing to say because any reply gives credence to someone who presupposes he knows the minds & habits of his own Greek peoples never mind that of the French, Italians, Dutch, Danish...!
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I'd just like to clarify for anyone whose not opted for watching paint dry:
As I wrote earlier and the greek still is incapable of acknowledging, I have never referred to "..tree-hugging.." nor to "..non-governmental mumbo-jumbo..".
And, I most definitely have not referred to "9/11" or the culprits with anything written on 'Wikileaks', but as is evident from the greek's contribution he hasn't an answer to why 'Wikileaks' isn't full of references to Greece, so he launches on another unsubstantiated, unverified, wholly alternative ramble down the revision of History tour to divert attention from factual reality.
Then for his next leap into the void that passes for an authentic Aegean mind, I can't say more than what the greek kindly quotes of me above and beneath his hyperbolic travesty of History:
"""Only a week ago You were demanding the UK withdraw from Gibraltar despite overwhelming % of its Citizens voting in 2002 for Britain to remain!"""
After such a centuries long illegal occupation of Gibraltar it is bound that the citizens profiting from the British shield wil vote for it. I can do the same in Britain, not in a century but in a decade if you like. I invade Britain and chop up Cornwall. I kick out whom I want and keep the subservient then I treat them with lots of lovely thingies. They are bound to vote for remaining under my protection. Does that mean that Cornwall must belong to me for ever? Gibraltarians are not a nation nor have they ever been a historic existence even though the British control there dates for centuries. They are some British and some British-cooperating Spanish. As such whatever you say is void. It is a protectorate, that is all.
"""No matter what You may think of as Your unbiased views I don't see much evidence of that in any of Your contributions."""
"""I've read quite enough of Your summations of 'events' and 'peoples'."""
Again: End of.
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221. At 2:33pm on 02 Dec 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
"""Tiresomely yet again: This is just laughable assumption and futile surmising by the greek!"""
"""What on earth makes him think he knows how well informed or uninformed entire people's are!?"""
I never said I conducted the survey myself. So as you correctly say, that is an assumption of mine on the basis of my experiences. I note that this is my average image, I did not say it is the absolute image of each nation or something. Someone else might have a different opinion. You have a different opinion and to explain it better you presented to us a list. A list which however is completely unrelated to how much informed are citizens in local and global events occuring around them, a list which - to use again Ptsa's successful paradigm - if used to be a measure of how much informed are citizens of coutries is like trying to measure each European country's 100% cultural output by means of Eurovision.
"""It is just not worth debating such spectacularly presumptive powers of knowledge."""
It is not spectacular. DurstingerMann directly understood what I mean and he tried to give me an explanation : that northerners are very polite and avoid getting into such discussions on social occasions. And my answer to him is that if people avoid to do such discussions on social occasions they certainly do not do them with their wifes and children in their everyday family life and as such mathematically they end up knowing less. It is natural that guitarists who do not practice often their instruments will be statistically both technically and presentationally inferior to guitarists that play everyday. Understanding politics and geopolitics is something that is worked, it is not an instict or something. Some people have more motivation to do so, others have not being occupied more with their personal lifes. That is all. It is not a matter of saying what is better and what is not, I did not put a grade on either side. I just made a general remark.
But you are funny CBW. So many months that people came and went saying "Greeks need to work" which is a blatant lie since Greek workers' annual hours are at more than 2200 hours contrasted to say German workers who average at 1800 hours, I did not see you protest and do such interventions. And when I come here and dare say that "in my experience people like the Dutch or the Dannish have on average a reduced understanding of how world affairs move in comparison to French, Italians or Greeks who are on average more interested in them" then you react.
Double standards? Whatever the case, that is my impression. To change it I need to meet a higher number of more knowledgeable northerners. But that is not my preoccupatin to start talking with every Dannish I find to find out what he knows, I am not a researcher or something.
"""There is just nothing to say because any reply gives credence to someone who presupposes he knows the minds & habits of his own Greek peoples never mind that of the French, Italians, Dutch, Danish...!"""
Ok, I know nothing, I should not refer again to assumptions 'even if I note it myself that "this is my assumption") and stick to the facts.
... only that when I do that, there comes no meaningful reply. Just as Ptsa has mentioned above.
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"""Again: End of"""
Not so. The end will be when Britain retires its colonial-like army from the Mediterranean. Do you mind or something?
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155. At 3:03pm on 01 Dec 2010, powermeerkat wrote:
"""...Or a disastrous Galileo project? No, of course you wouldn't.
Although the issue is DIRECTLY connected to EUSSR financial woes]"""
What about Galileo? Its delays have nothing to do with anything else than the geostrategic sabotage by the US which was not giving the accord to have it up there and presented every obstacle possible given that US has feet inside the EU. Only the permissions for the frequencies took some 4 times the usual period of accord, just to give an example. The project, a brainchild of the pro-independence part of EU which was strong back in the early 90s, started (i.e. post-conceptual state) about 1998 and by 2008 there should be all 30 satelites up there, yet there is only a couple or so of them in accordance to the project and some other who are used by convenience. As such the project is always not deployed in year 2010.
That is what happens when you do remain under the US grip. Had Europeans been independent they would had finished it long ago. Take the ISS. It is an even more difficult task but since it was the Russians there the whole thing is up and working and Europeans do just fine having also designed and constructed the ATV robotic vehicle. So why there where Americans did not pose a problem Europe did just fine no matter if the financial investment gives no direct feedback and in the case of Galileo where the financial investment will give direct feedback and empower geostrategically Europe there are blatant delays? Sit down and think. Saying this, I am not blaming the Americans for not wishing to see Galileo working, it is in their interests to have Europeans tied to the GPS. However, what they manage to do is to increase resentment inside Europe and already the talks of making the break and calling in the Russians to have a joint Galileo-Glonass (which having already more than 20 satelites and expecting other 10 of them gets more and more operational after a long period of non-funding), i.e. Americans after a decade of pushing down Europeans for not wishing to see them going independent risk of seeing Europeans getting tied to Russians "out of nowhere".
While I preach a more close collaboration among Europeans, EU-Russia, I am of the idea that Europeans should maintain their initial objective and have Galileo deployed independently thus increasing the degree of liberty of Europe. Galileo will anyway collaborate with GPS and Glonass for civil issues, that is a certainty. But that is down to business negotiations; the most important however is to have Europeans built finally Galileo independently to maintain the geostrategic objective.
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"214. At 12:06pm on 02 Dec 2010, threnodio_II wrote:
179 - Pate...
Playing the blame game at this stage is clearly about as logical as two people arguing about who caused a car crash while the third party is bleeding to death. It's a waste of time. To this extent, Pate is wrong."
The first crasher is the one to blame. It is the greediest one. We all know what American banks did. They heated the economy because of their own greed and they are to blame.
Of course all greedy players who are in trouble now are guilty of the deathly sin of greed. And in Europe there is no savior else than Euro.
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"209. At 08:24am on 02 Dec 2010, Stevenson wrote:
Pate,
Blame all you want if it makes you feel better--how can you though put the blame on EU nations' bad debts All on the USA?"
My blames are counterblames. As you can read from my first mails. The USA is now trying to laugh at lousy Euro although this all is dollars fault. Dollar is in deep shift now. Euro must hang on.
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"209. At 08:24am on 02 Dec 2010, Stevenson wrote:
Pate,
... (bad grammar?..oh well)"
I can't see what your mothers mother have anything to blame fore. OK, maybe she is bad.
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@206, Huaimek and @207, powermeerkat
This is a second attempt as the moderator found something wrong with my first version. Unfortunately, the present blog is pretty well closed. But, for completeness:
Thanks partly to Gavin, I've become something of an Italy watcher. I believe that the Italian politician you have in mind is Roberto Maroni, minister of the interior in the present gov. His name originates, I think, not from any term relating to intellectual capacity (as you might appear to be thinking) but from the word for chestnut (cf marron glace). I believe some Italians have made fun of him because of his name as it may have a slang use.
As a leading member of the Northern League, a few of his statements might occasionally tend toward effect as much as content, with just the mildest element of a populist, nationalist, independence party line of blame others for your troubles. As such, in or out of the Euro could equally be open for attack. For those who are interested, some of his history may be found in Wikipaedia.
However, in view of his government position, we should not speak badly of him. Recently, WikiLeaks has of course made some mention of members of the Italian Gov., which I would not go into here or necessarily even believe.
Not much to do with the Euro, but all QI.
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"197. At 11:10pm on 01 Dec 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
...Unsure who/what this is a reference to, pate?
C) to just give George W Bush a sort of nickname!?"
Thats the one. C. I learned from american TV that Bush family is mentioned in bible. It was their uncle Bernie, Bernie Bush, but what do I know or remember about such old things : )
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"194. At 10:42pm on 01 Dec 2010, cool_brush_work wrote:
...Oh but wait! (2) How could pate be expected to understand our perspective when he's so busy accumulating brain cells?"
Yes, me here smarter. The smarter one. Accumulating smart.
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I think I own since yesterday a reply to Wolf to close for today:
175. At 5:36pm on 01 Dec 2010, WolfiePeters wrote:
"""And, since you seem to assume that I’m some sort of racist, I'll not claim otherwise as it seems sadly to be built into human nature..."""
Good man. I never thought you were racist, I was just playing with words as I like to do. Think it well, the racism as a notion appeared only after WWII to describe something that is into human nature as well as being taught since birth by our mothers for the single reason that our mother will feed and care about us more than she would do about the neighbours' baby. What is impressive is that the term appears only after 1000s of years of written human intellect so you get the point. For me it is empty of meaning.
"""Why do I say the problems of Greece, Ireland and others trace back to the Euro? I suggest that the other points you mention have made the problem of the Euro develop faster for Greece, but it’s fundamentally there."""
I understood well your argument and it is indeed valid. The case of Ireland is not yet 100% clear to me as it seems it has been all about a decent looking little country falling under the grip of bankers who exploited feeble governments that wrote upon Ireland immense debts of money whose only a minor % every enterred the country. But in the case of Greece which I know better, the introduction of euro only did things worse in the sense that it gave not any easy way out (i.e. restarting by devaluation) but euro or drachma the country mathematically was driving into a wall. The real roots are the conscious destruction of its internal production base and the filling of the cash vacuum with perpetual debt and the employment vacuum with extra positions in the public sector, positions given as "gifts" so as to maintain an army of desperately fidel voters all while the country has been geostrategically and militarily attacked and as such not allowed to exploit its national ressources. It is therefore a conscious effort of successive Greek governments under full EU knowledge and even incitement. Not easy to explain eh?
Ok let us talk about energy (you made some smart remarks and 1 less smart):
"""I’d suggest our most stable provider of gas is Norway. As for us moving to renewable and nuclear energy, I agree with you.
There is no question on that. But it provides for 5-6 countries in the north. Unfortunately Norway cannot provide for all of Europe or if it could you should be wondering what is going on and it doen't happen!
"""You suggest that expensive oil and gas sources cannot compete. Look at history. How has the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea competed with the Middle East?"""
While in general the more producers appear (and this has to be seen in relation to consumption needs) the better for competion and prices but all is not linear. I have said repeatedly that in energy issues there is no free market. I cannot see clearly how Gulf of Mexico ever competed with the Middle East. The first along with most of the Canadian, Latin American and apparently the US oil fed mostly the American continent. I am not aware of American continent oil sold in meaningfull quantities in Europe but then I might be wrong - yet I am confident that would be still a small %. Europe is provided its oil either from the North Sea, or from Russia and other ex-USSR countries, some small quantities from Romania and Italy but for the most, by far the largest % is brought by Middle East. However Middle East hardly provides the US with quantities that are relatively small part of its needs in % and for the US the Middle East IS replaceable. It is Europe that is totally dependent on Middle East and so all that US attacks on the region is not to ensure ressources for the future for US only but above all to yield control over the economy of Europe and the world. As such it cannot be easily established that there was ever any competition between the two. Both are US controlled, the one sells to the US, the other mostly to Europe.
"""It seems that some ‘politicians’ have pushed the Russian option for their own interest rather than the public."""
Why is it not in the interest of the public? How will we move our machines and warm our houses then? We can't still do everything with electricity only so even if we built 10 times more nuclear powerplants it won't be enough. For the time being, we need fossil energy and natural gas is its best form. Petroleum has to enter the category of "chemicals", it should not be an energy product. It can produce so many things and we burn it for fuel, it is crazy. The biggest tap in the region is Russia. It is natural to turn to them to make deals. Another source is North Africa. None said we should stick only to Russia. But our energy provisions will have to pass form Russia. Without Russia we will anyway be dependent. We are anyway dependent now to the US petrodollar fed Wahhabis so it can't get worse. Your work, my work gives us money and a part of that money we earn goes to the US via the petrodollar scum. Read about it, then think of it again. Russian on the contrary comes to Europe with real projects in hand. Real deals, real business for the long term. We have to think seriously of it.
"""Certainly, the Russian government has shown that it’s capable of closing the valves."""
No it did not happen like that, this is the falsified version they presented in western media. The closing of valves was done by Orange Ukraine. In 2005 the Orange "revolution" (pseudo...) occured after a lot of funding by my personal friend and geat inspiration George Soros who of course cares a lot for the well-being of Ukrainians because his neighbours' cat was born there. The Orangemen severed the relationship with Russia and tried to cut links trying to convince people (40% Russians!) that having ties with the US and EU would be better for them. So they started a fight on every issue and cancelled deals with Russians that were linked with the gas transfers demanding higher passage tax as well as other pretty mean stuff so that Russians on their side demanded Ukraine to pay a higher price on its imports (though still less than 75% of the real market price!!!). Orangemen refused to pay the increased price and their payments continued at the usual (I think 40% of th market price...) which was of course illegal since themselves had annulated the deals with Russians, not Russians. In the end they even stopped formal payments. Russians had been warning them as well as informing the EU keeping them assured that this is a Russian-Ukrainian issue, they even tried to restructure the debt of Ukraine for the debt Ukraine HAD already consumed (i.e. again Ukraine would get a bargain price) but in the end, the stance of Ukraine obliged Russia to cut the supply. But the supply to Ukraine is INDEPENDENT of the supply to the rest of Europe. It was UKRAINE that cut the supply of Russian gas to the rest of Europe in an act of revenge and pressure on Russia. Russia intervened, EU too intervened and things were calmed down with Ukraine finally accepting some form of deal. The whole issue had been caused by pro-US Orangement to derail the EU-Russia approach and it was sold by US-phile media in western Europe as a paradigm of why not to depend on Russia.
Which of course is the paradigm of the opposite: the Ukrainian event was a good paradigm of why we must not depend on USA. I hope you got the point.
As for Russia, with a North Stream and South Stream in place why on earth would Russia cut the supply to its best clients? Russia is not interested in micro-games and not so much in playing with price fluctuations and this has been seen on its provision to the powerless Eastern European countries where for long they enjoyed particular tariffs. Russia sees the energy supplies as only the first part of a more general industrial, economic and even political and geostrategic approach between EU and Russia. As such, it is not even in the interests of Russia to treat EU as a random powerless country and right not Russia is indeed the ONLY country that still tries to take the EU seriously and discuss one on one cos if you did not understand it, the likes of US along with China as well as even slowly slowly India and Brazil do not.
"""I might ask: have you any experience of how the Russian oil and gas companies operate? You might like them, but they frighten me."""
I share your concerns. But truth is that they are not much more mafia like than US ones. So we are falling from Scylla to Charybdis. At least Charybdis is more near and cheaper afterall and down to the basics it wants to make us its best clients - as such it has no interest in seeing us going bad. Much of the bad publicity over this companies is due to the fact that in early 90s unscrupulous businessmen were took up that critical business and these collaborated with certain European firms so when the Russian state stood up on its feet and kicked out some of them (I am not saying it did it on a legal basis or for legality - it was all a war of interests), some Europeans also lost their nice deals and it hit them negatively but that is the problem of these companies as they should had seen it coming since Russia is not Kolombia or Nigeria, at some point the state would try to put a hand upon the market.
But that is no first in the sector. US does that yet I saw no European expressing his concerns (cos everyhing the US do it unquestionable it seems, unless the media tell us to have concerns over Iraq or else...). It goes without saying that if Russia and Europe sign the big deals (and some of them have been already signed) the Russian state will be too tied (and equally Europe) to play trivial little games.
"""I’m all in favour of bringing everyone closer, in any sense. But, I have a problem with any monopoly on energy supply, in fact any monopoly."""
I am against monopolies too. I find the situation in Eastern Europe, especially in landlocked countries as worrying - such a dependency on Russian gas is not at all good. But other countries like Greece are hugely dependent on the even more expensive and much more volatile US-Wahhabi oil. It is the same story only that in the case of Greece things are worse as it is more expensive and prices can fluctuate much more upturning the tables in its economy.
But energy diversification will necessarily pass from Russia. You have to understand that when EU countries sign such deals it is not for today or the next 10 years but for at least the next 50 years. And when you take into account the curves of carbon, oil and gas you understand that any meaningfull strategy will have to give attention to gas. Oil will increasingly be transfered from an energy source to an expenive chemical raw material. The sooner it happens the better. Ideally natural gas should take its place alongside with electricity to replace gasoline and diesel (remaining petrol diesel should work with large % of locally produced biofuels). Gas is something you have to buy locally, not to transfer in LNG form. So Rusia and North Africa have to be our natural partners. We simply cannot pass over Russia. Our energy independence will come by the shift from fossil fuel to electricity with an increase in local nuclear and renewable production of electricity, not by refusing to buy gas from Russia and running to pleade the Americans to send us shisp of LNG... or even worse LPG from the Saoudis. It is just pure logic.
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Nik @233, Nik, nice reply, glad we have some convergence.
On the gas cut, my memory was that Russia cut the supply to Ukraine. You can argue about the justification between nations, but for people that's not so good in the winter. There was a some reduction in supply to some other parts of Europe; I can guess, but can't say why for sure.
My own impression of Gazprom is not favourable for various reasons.
Concerning LNG, it is shipped great distances. Japan imports huge quantities from Australia. There are large quantities of LNG so far offshore that the gas is not going anywhere by pipeline, just LNG carrier. I shouldn't worry too much about the US (not) shipping it, as they don't really figure as a gas exporter.
I didn't mention nuclear before. I sort of agree with you. I have nothing against it, certainly in a very professional industry, in a very well organised country. I don't think many of us match up well to those requirements. Worse still, few to no countries have very decent capacity for installing large nuclear generators.
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Nik,
My one criticism of you here is that your posts are sooo longggg that I become exhausted and move on to the next post :)
Maybe... I'm unhealthy... and should walk more... and more often.
:)
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#232. At 6:33pm on 02 Dec 2010, Pate wrote:
"Yes, me here smarter. The smarter one. Accumulating smart."
That post and your preceding posts remind me of an old joke, a man walks into a pub with a bag full of the little balls that sheep drop and a customer at the bar asks what they are. The first guy says "get smart pills" and offers the bag to the man who takes one and eats it, as he tastes it he spits it out and says yuk it takes like sh*t, whereupon the first guy says "see you're getting smart".
In your case I have to say the penny has yet to drop.
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Why is Gavin Hewitt's 2 December report closed to further entries?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
"236. At 08:29am on 03 Dec 2010, Buzet23 wrote:
...That post and your preceding posts remind me of an old joke"
I am very sorry if my posts left bad taste to your mouth, but we all must remember that what does not kill you makes you stronger. And let's hope smarter too. Just take couple of mints now and then.
No hard feelings I hope ; )
Pate
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234. At 9:04pm on 02 Dec 2010, WolfiePeters wrote:
"""Nik @233, Nik, nice reply, glad we have some convergence."""
That is pure nice discussion. Points of convergence, points of divergence and food for thought.
"""On the gas cut, my memory was that Russia cut the supply to Ukraine. You can argue about the justification between nations, but for people that's not so good in the winter."""
Yet, Russia had been trying for more than 1 year to bring the rogue Ukrainian government to its senses. At the end of the day you cannot expect Russians to be a charity house. US companies would had not even waited for so long. They would had cut the supply long before... if their assasination effort of the orange government officials failed. One has to keep things in context always.
"""There was a some reduction in supply to some other parts of Europe; I can guess, but can't say why for sure."""
Well, when the Ukrainian orangemen cut the supply to central Europe, countries like Chechia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia etc. suffered as their stocks were not sufficient to keep them going for many weeks. Not nice, not pleasant but then too not the Russians' fault - unless you accuse them of not being able to assasinate and get rid of the Ukrainian orange government. So will Chechia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia etc. have shortages of gas this winter, now with the new government in Ukraine? Who wants to bet?
"""My own impression of Gazprom is not favourable for various reasons."""
Mind you, I am no Russian apologist. But I am fed up with people being so anti-Russian for no reason when they are slaves to a US-NATOic system that is worse than what post-communist Russians currently propose which is much more fitting to the interests of us, Europeans.
"""Concerning LNG, it is shipped great distances. Japan imports huge quantities from Australia. There are large quantities of LNG so far offshore that the gas is not going anywhere by pipeline, just LNG carrier."""
I know. But it can be as much as double the price (infastructure, ships, etc.). Not nice. Let alone the ecological risks. Not nice either. Pipeline is the most correct way to do so. Gas is something that has to be sought locally, not to make the round of the oceans through waves and pirates...
"""I shouldn't worry too much about the US (not) shipping it, as they don't really figure as a gas exporter."""
Are you claiming with this statement that eg. it is Arabs producing and shipping the oil? Think of it again.
"""I didn't mention nuclear before. I sort of agree with you. I have nothing against it, certainly in a very professional industry, in a very well organised country. I don't think many of us match up well to those requirements. Worse still, few to no countries have very decent capacity for installing large nuclear generators."""
Well you would be surprised that my opinion (and I am of technical education) is that a nuclear reactor is a fairly simple technology given that all concerns are accordingly dealt during design phase. But design phase is not down by small countries - these rather import design and technology and the largest part of construction from large companies. I take the example of Bulgaria which operated and still operates Russian-tech. built nuclear units. If a small country like Bulgaria can, why not others. Certainly Kozloduy used to operate one of the least safe reactors but Bulgarian engineers (with apparent Russian support) did maintain them up to the end of their life-cycle without major trouble - if anything Sellafield was a much more dangerous nuclear unit than Kozloduy, but then it is easy to fall on the little countries.
If smaller European states install nuclear plants they will do it most probably (if not certainly) with French technology which right now is the best existing out there in the international nuclear market. I would only hold aside Greece which would not have trouble with importing technology and training local engineers (Greece has the biggest supply of educated people in Europe per population in our times, people are thirsty for new projects) but I would mostly care about the seismic activity: the units should be designed more according to the Japanese standards, Japan also being a seismogenous country (Greece and Japan are of the most seismogenous countries in the world), yet Greeks are very competent on the structural engineering field so even there it would be feasible. Do not underestimate the capacities of smaller countries.
When talking about the energy future of Europe we should decide that this has to include:
1) nuclear for the production of electricity
2) hydroelectric, wind, solar, wave and other renewable production of electricity
3) natural gas for machine locomotion (cars etc.) as well as electricity production
4) biofuels for machine locomotion
5) oil for airplane fuel and machine locomotion in decreasing % and mixed with biofuels (oil should be treated as a valuable chemical raw material rather than as "staple" fuel).
Percentages would naturally vary from country to country but a 33%-33%-33% law should be a good guide if not possibly extend the renewables which are on most cases the most benefiting the local economies (locally produced, locally installed, and then free of purchases production). France for example which has an overwhelming nuclear sector managed to raise its electricity production by renewables from 5% to almost 20% of its overall electricity production : that is huge. Countries like Danemark are doing even better, showing the direction.
Gas however, will be the key, and an energy source one has not the luxury to pass over. As such, Europe is quite unlucky not to have enough of its own (and even the main producer, Norway is a out of EU and a practical US protectorate, let us not hide behind our fingers). So Europe might have Norway as a friendly country and stable provider but it is far from being enough: the main provider is and will remain Russia for the next 80 to 100 years. Europe is lucky however to have a second choice, that is North Africa, if it can come to terms (if it is let by the US evidently - and even Russians would not really want Europe to get closer there...) with the Arabs there. The central Asian reserves are far fetched as well as having to pass from all the unstable countries like Turkmenistan, Azerbaitzan, Georgia, Turkey, none of which is really any true democracy. In Turkey they vote, but you end up in jail for years if you mention even a vague idea if it is not to the liking of the system while the country is officially at near-war situation with Greece and Bulgaria (a war occured between Turkey and Greece in 1996 when it invaded Greek, i.e. EU territory - EU of course was totally absent, EU borders do not matter to EU). Georgia is a remaining random collection of ex-Georgia, a US protectorate ruled by a semi-dictator. Azerbaitzan is also a country in civil war ruled by a dictator. And Turkmenistan has a Stalin-like dictatorship. So one wonders what is all about US trying to convince us buying from Nabucco.
The energy future of EUrope passes from the above. For gas (which should be not more than 20% of its electricity production as well not more than its 35% overall energy needs), a 50% Russian, 30% North African and 20% Norwegian and rest of the world deal should be more than satisfactory to let Europe play around with prices.
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Now if anyone comes and comments on the above that I propose any energy dependence on Russians, you must directly question on him either on his motives of saying such a lie or really on his ability to do simple mathematical equations. I am well aware that educational systems globally are a shadow of their own past and that average peoples' education is getting more and more lamentable. Luckily some escape the rule and you find some here but the vast mass out there is incapable of logical thinking (not that there was anytime in history the "vast mass" could think but at least back then none was pretending).
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