The weakening of Sarkozy
It may be that the scandal swirling around French President Nicolas Sarkozy is unmasked and shown to be little more than smear and innuendo. Even so, damage will have been done. There seems to be a slow weakening to President Sarkozy's authority. The maestro of bold action has, of late, seemed indecisive. The polls indicate a public tiring of his administration.
The most serious part of the scandal is the allegation that 150,000 euros (£124,000) in cash was secretly given to the Sarkozy campaign in 2007. This would flout laws on campaign financing. The money is said to have come from Liliane Bettencourt, France's wealthiest woman and heiress to the L'Oreal cosmetics empire. The information comes from her book-keeper, who never saw the money handed over but says she was told about it. The cash, allegedly, was passed to Eric Woerth who is current labour minister and in charge of pension reform.
The government fiercely denies this story. The police are now investigating. The president describes it as a "libel that aims only to smear, without the slightest basis in reality". That in itself will not call off the Parisian press pack. Yesterday one reporter said it sounded like the classic "non-denial denial".
It is a golden rule of government scandals that leaders have to get ahead of the story by answering the allegations in detail and providing as much documentary evidence as possible. That has not happened so far.
There are reports that the president and his advisers have considered an appearance on national TV. It may just be he will wait until 13 July and the traditional pre-Bastille address to the nation. If so, it gives the impression of a leader being driven by events. In the vacuum there is the drip-drip of revelation.
It feeds into a growing sense of indecision at the heart of the Elysee. There was the by-now famous case of one of his ministers who treated cigars worth 12,000 euros as a perk of office. In an era of austerity such extravagance no longer flies. In the end the minister and another resigned, but Sarkozy missed the opportunity to move boldly and decisively.
Now it could be that the campaign contributions can be denied and dismissed convincingly. Then there is the case of Mr Woerth. He may have done nothing wrong but there is a sense of a conflict of interest. While he was in charge of tax, his wife was acting as financial adviser to Liliane Bettencourt. He was also treasurer and party fundraiser for the UMP, Mr Sarkozy's party.
Even without substance there is a problem here of appearance. Mr Woerth also happens to be the minister pushing through controversial pension reforms that have already brought thousands onto the streets in protest. The scandal reveals networks of power and influence and that could stiffen opposition to reform. Some within the UMP want a reshuffle, which presumably means that Mr Woerth, who vehemently denies any wrong-doing, would be moved from his post.
President Sarkozy's party was defeated in regional elections in March and has not recovered. He faces re-election in 2012. Yet this is a time when he is committed to pushing through pension reform and France this autumn will have to announce its own austerity plan. The finance minister has said it is a dangerous balancing act between avoiding social unrest while ensuring that France too reduces its deficit. It will be a time for leadership, but the prospect of re-election rarely encourages boldness.
Angela Merkel, Europe's other big leader, is also weakened. She, too, has suffered electoral setbacks and has been damaged by squabbling within her coalition. Fortunately for her Germany is enjoying a strong economic recovery, with an indication in some manufacturing sectors that orders are back to pre-recession levels.
The European summer will bring only light relief. The crisis in the eurozone has not been solved. Differences between some euro economies are growing, not diminishing. Growth in many countries is anaemic at best. In the autumn protestors will challenge the austerity programmes on the streets across Europe. Someone will have to make the case to Europe's voters that their cherished way of life with its strong social programmes cannot be sustained.
It will test Europe's leaders at a time when they are already weakened.
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~56~RS~)
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The French will stamp their feet and the necessary reforms will be shelved. Sarkozy will probably be history anyway but France will lose their chance to save their future.
My major question is if the Germans will help them or cut them loose.
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Totally agree withy point 1; the French will strike, the government will back down and present something less austere than is required in reality and the rest of Europe and the Euro-zone will suffer. Merkel will be even less popular as a result and the Germans will start to demand a return to the DM from the Euro...
Interesting times ;-)
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Graft and corruption in France? Can't happen. Certainly not now. America had Honest Abe, France has Saint Sarko.
Sarkozy has always looked very weak to me. In an hour long interview with Charlie Rose on PBS shortly before he was elected he seemed clueless about how to fix France or even to really understand its problems. His reputation is that he flits from issue to issue never accomplishing anything. In a society that loves talk, he won over an equally clueless Segoline Royal. Will here turn to chart a course for the Titanic come next.
"Someone will have to make the case to Europe's voters that their cherished way of life with its strong social programmes cannot be sustained."
Events are making that clear without anyone having to say it. Between the end of American subsidies (one way trade and corporate tax concessions) during the cold war and the end of foolishly advanced credit to European welfare state governments with quasi socialist economies the end has finally come. The party is over. Time for one last Havana cigar and one last glass of Dom Perignon and then it is out into the biting cold cruel world.
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Sarkozy is a Hungarian Jew.
Good enoughreason for resident anti-Semites to criticise him.
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"European welfare state governments with quasi socialist economies"
Do not crow too much MA2/AG. Brian has already blessed you with his direction on to the path of righteousness.
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In these times of economic austerity, if an EU leader can remain popular, untouched by scandal (true or false), it may be a miracle. People are discontent, worried, and in this worried atmosphere of discontent, smeer campaigns thrive.
Look at the source of the latest French smeer: I quote: "The information comes from her (Bettancourt) book-keeper, who never saw the money handed over but says she was told about it." This statement wouldn't even pass muster for its day in court. Where is the audit trail, the evidence?
Sarkozy is likely doing the right thing – keeping his mouth shut while the investigation ensues. This keeping his mouth shut means he has nothing to say because there is nothing to say.
President Sarkozy's faces re-election in 2012. Who knows what will be status of
- France then,
- the EU banks then, or even
- the Euro then.
It’s not odd that leaders bwecome unpopular when they are forced to unpopular things. Angela Merkel may have suffered squabbling, but she also must be doing several things right because Germany is enjoying a strong economic recovery, with an indication in some manufacturing sectors that orders are back to pre-recession levels.
Yes, the European people will have to face that their cherished way of life with its strong social programmes cannot be sustained UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.
Maybe some bright auditor who knows about
- betting against soverign debt
- negative credit default swaps and
- shorting
will acutally come up with the reasons behind the current conditions.
Maybe then, guilty companies will be brought to trial, made to compensate for the suffering they have caused at the cause of their own greed. The situation in Europe is no accident; there was cause and there was effect.
I cannot believe that Brussles is not working on this situation NOW.
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"Even without substance there is a problem here of appearance", the rationale of the media for all irresponsible statements they make.
The handmaidens of the bankers will be abondoned by them, or more likely provided with post-career board of directors seats.
The financial crisis created by the criminal bankers will cause many heads to roll because no heads of the bankers did. Citizens express their frustrations at who is in their view not those in the back rooms pulling the strings that they never see.
Marcus: Don't forget Nixon and his resignation in shame and his advisors going to jail...hardly Honest Abe.
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CORRECTION
Sarozy is the son of a hungarian aristocrat - who came to France after service in the foreign legion
His grandfather was a greek jew from a very distinguished cholarly family in Salonika -
let the resident antis get their facts right
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President Sarkozy has a withered look! The scandal is rocking the very foundations of confidence in the President. His ratings are bound to plummet. Will he come out of this 'Sarkozygate affair'? Chances are he will scrape through but his standing will be damaged.
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A Hungarian Jew.
Enough for European Left to launch a vivious attack, while hiding its in-bred anti-semitism.
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When Sarkozy took office, he said that France was broke. But it has managed to function anyway. How? Was he lying? Exaggerating? Mistaken? Has he invented some secret new method of finanance? Or just gone deeper into debt?
If the French economy cracks, is it over for the Euro... or even the EU? It will be interesting to see how the French banks do in the stress test. Any idea when the results will be published?
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I agree with the general sentiments expressed by BluesBerry #6.
However, the late news is the (ex) book-keeper has partially withdrawn her statement under police questioning. The other claims said to be linking the ruling party to Mme Bettencourt (owner of l'Oréal) are no more than claims at present.
What's really at sake here is not corrupt practice, "funny money" or whatever, the Socialist Party and the trades unions have failed to de-rail the negotiations on pensions reform. So, by "divine intervention" (ho, ho) the revelation of the Mme Bettencourt affair appears - and, the SP can focus on the man. Or should I say, the men? Because, whilst it looks as if Minister of Work Woerth is, prima facie, guilty of putting himself in a morally unjustifiable position (being both Party Treasurer and Minister for the Budget), it's Sarkozy and the whole of his government that the SP are hoping to bring down. ie, politics as normal.
C'est la France - et, c'est les P/politiques. (ie politics and/or politicians).
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I already know what France really wants, and it really does not take genius to work this out. France want Germany to bail it out. France wants Germany to pay for French deficits, which is why the French are always in favor of 'common economic government' because it is in the interest of France. France has for over 50 years done nothing but try to disproportionately profit from any 'EU' policy.
Angela Merkel, Europe's other big leader, is also weakened. She, too, has suffered electoral setbacks and has been damaged by squabbling within her coalition.
Serves them both right. Who do they think they are that everything should be pre-decided between the two of them? National parliaments (the only democratic ones, unlike the phony EU 'parliament') is where democracy is and that is where legislative powers should be. Not in the hands of government 'leaders' and other ministers who use the undemocratic EU to circumvent, bypass and ignore their national parliaments.
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If I were he, I'd want to spend more time with my Carla.
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4 and 10 - powermeerkat
Since you are the only contributor who seems to think this is even remotely important, I can only imagine that it is your obsessions we are dealing with here, not ours.
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#6 - BluesBerry
I am slightly confused by your post.
Certainly it is true that governments which are losing ground politically seem to be more vulnerable to smear campaigns whether justified or not. There is also an element of the 'no smoke without fire' mentality. But, if the recent UK experience was anything to go by, the public reaction seemed to be 'they are all as bad as each other and you cannot trust any politicians'. Even so, they came out in numbers to vote within a short time - for politicians. All that allegations like this do is sour public opinion against politicians and politics.
What really confuses me though is why you think France might need Germany to bail her out. No European economy is actually bouyant at the moment but relative to some of the Mediterranean economies, France is reasonably secure. MAII points out in his post Sarkozy's reference to France being 'broke' by which I suspect he meant that the level of public debt was unsustainable. Most European governments seem to have woken up to this. But France is not on the verge of collapse.
What France is most certainly doing, however, is looking to the Germans to bear the lion's share of the burden when bailing out the Euro by propping up ailing economies elsewhere. This is simply a matter of the burden being shared proportionally according to the size of individual national economies. Thus even Spain, Portugal and Ireland had to bear some of the burden of the Greek bailout. It goes with the territory.
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#14. At 7:15pm on 08 Jul 2010, MaxSceptic wrote:,
But is she in accord with that one might ask as a mate who lives in France is questioning that. The opinion I've heard is that old scores within Sarko's party are being settled.
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Given the amount of money needed to fund a major political party and the amounts that Mme. Bettencourt has at her disposal. €150,000 seems such a trivial amount of money. Does anyone else think this smells of a stitch up?
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We should had been expecting it. A French friend who votes for center (and hates Sarkozy) had informed me some 2 years back that Nicolas in his youth worked as... a specialist in delocalisation of funds for tax-evasion... And I knew since a bit later Nicolas held the mayorship of his district (Neuilly if I remember well)...
well... well... nothing new under the sun.
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#4 powermeerkat
If Sarkozy has sent money to the Jewish occupiers of the West Bank ( whether tax deductible or not ) for buildings, your accusation is hollow.
If he did not send money he cannot be accused of inciting terrorism.
--- unlike those who did !
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Hi powermeerkat. Re 4 & 10.
Your posts are generally anti European and anti French. Fair enough, everyone's entitled to their views.
But now when there's a blog on a Sarko funding scandal, we're all anti Semites??
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#10 powermeerkat
I believe many intelligent Jews do not appreciate your prejudices -- especially their repetition !
Must you contribute such original thoughts ?
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Somehow this topic doesn't enthuse me...
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This article should according to the headline be concerned with the French president, but nonetheless it makes a comparison with the German chancellor. Comparisons can sometime be very enlightening but it is not in this case. The tertium comparationis is that both leaders are experiencing decreasing support among the voters, but the reasons behind this are incommensurable. Interested, who can read German, can find articles and editorials on Merkel’s problem in this weeks edition of Die Zeit.
The article ends with the invocation, which is among the fixtures of this journalism: The social programmes cannot be sustained. The German society is aging and the health care will be more expensive - unless of course, Germany increases the immigration and / or the Germans get more children. The German government has announced a few days ago that as a part of its adjustment of the health care system it will raise payments to this system with circa 0,5 per cent. So far the social programmes are getting sustained, also in Germany.
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"Then there is the case of Mr Woerth. He may have done nothing wrong but there is a sense of a conflict of interest."
No problem. He can just point to the Mandelson, Oleg and the aluminium tariffs. Everything is peachy with conflicts of interest in Euroland.
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I know rumours can kill political careers but I expected a bit more proof involved than "someone told me this happened". It does indeed smell of vested interests desperately trying not to take their much needed medicine.
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That's what happens when immigrants take over a country...
see France, Greece, US, Germany...
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24.Mathiasen wrote: The German government has announced a few days ago that as a part of its adjustment of the health care system it will raise payments to this system with circa 0,5 per cent. So far the social programmes are getting sustained, also in Germany.
They are getting sustained alright, by small cuts every few months. It's what can be called 'death by a thousand cuts'. Politicians, hoping for a miraculous return to 4-5% growth a year (not gonna happen) are applying only tiny cuts. But still, deficits are not really reduced and debts keep rising, and politicians know far more drastic cuts are necessary.
But even a small cut in welfare programs can lose you an election, and that's why it doesn't happen.
And no, perpetual population increase (which sustained the 'growth' since 1945) is no longer an option. Importing scores of folks isn't a solution either, since many who came here are hostile to our culture and think their culture which demeans women is somehow equal to ours (it isn't).
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oi oi oi oeichler;
"That's what happens when immigrants take over a country...
see France, Greece, US, Germany..."
Yeah, look what happened to America. It started over 500 years ago and it hasn't stopped since.
Europe is doomed.
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The stage is set for Dominique de Villepin.....I always thought he had a better grasp of French politics than Sarko
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or the other Dominique... DSK of the IMF
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What France needs is another Charles De Gaulle who will put France first and foremost and both rightly and wisely pull French troops out of Afghanistan and try to find a way toward peace in that part of the world instead of participating in all this obscene butchery.Maybe without French participation,the other NATO countries might reconsider fighting this unnecessary war.
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For the record ~10, the european left wing parties have been, if anything, pro-semitic. the French socialist ;eader in the 30s was Leon Blum, a jew. The Dreyfus affair in France in the late 19th century was a conspiracy aginst a jew, Dreyfuss, by the French right. Do you think Hitler was left wing??
I'd also make the point that the recovery in the German economy is patently nothing to do with unpopular decisions by Merkel to cut public spending. It's far too early for that. It's the result of the Germans pumping money into the economy last year (just as the last Government did here), The question for Europe is what happens when they all "tighten their belts"? Will the private sector take up the slack or is it now so inextricably linked to public spending that we'll get a renewed drop into recession?
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34. At 10:03pm on 10 Jul 2010, lacplesis37 wrote:
"""For the record ~10, the european left wing parties have been, if anything, pro-semitic."""
The addition of "pro-" quite amused me.
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33. At 02:20am on 10 Jul 2010, Warren wrote:
"""What France needs is another Charles De Gaulle..."""
What France needs? Well what every country needs I would say.
We had our De Gaul earlier than De Gaul. In the 1950s. General Papagos, turned civilian and voted on government. He was murdered in 1955 by the British. What can I say more?
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What France needs is a cure for that traditional French malady "yet another defeat pulled from the jaws of victory". Every time France or a French company's project get close to succeeding a funny sort of red mist descends over the eyes of the participants. Everybody starts proclaiming the success is only because of themselves, they demand more money, the unions start to strike, and the project fails. In that sense Sarkozy is very much in that mold as he considers himself to be the centre of the known universe and impervious to all criticism as he is perfect. Add to that his overinflated ego and you hear of stories when comediennes are actively discouraged (or even fired) for using Sarkozy as a subject, but judging by the number of French jokes I receive that hasn't worked.
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Taking the censoring habits here into consideration, it is probably better not to make comments on the French president at all.
Let us therefore say it has been confirmed that he is weakened, as BBC's blogger writes.
However, everybody is free to make his own thoughts about the possibility for Sarkozy to get reelected on this background - and to look for information in French papers and web sites.
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37. At 10:45am on 12 Jul 2010, Buzet23 wrote:
"""What France needs is a cure for that traditional French malady "yet another defeat pulled from the jaws of victory"."""
France is a country that has been taken from within. A long time ago. And people like De Gaul were not enough to give it a different direction despite offering it for some time a different vision out of which France still profits. Had the gauche-caviar been in power in the 1960s, you would see where France would had been today without nuclear weapons, without nuclear plants, without military industry, without space industry etc. France still lives on De Gaul's legacy.
"""Every time France or a French company's project get close to succeeding a funny sort of red mist descends over the eyes of the participants."""
It is exactly because France is being controlled from the inside. It is not a fully independent state.
"""Everybody starts proclaiming the success is only because of themselves, they demand more money, the unions start to strike, and the project fails."""
Well gauche-caviar. It is the other stinged clamp (the more poisonous one) of capitalism.
"""In that sense Sarkozy is very much in that mold as he considers himself to be the centre of the known universe and impervious to all criticism as he is perfect."""
In that sense he is the worst example of a state leader. He is however the perfect example of the arrivist politician.
"""Add to that his overinflated ego and you hear of stories when comediennes are actively discouraged (or even fired) for using Sarkozy as a subject, but judging by the number of French jokes I receive that hasn't worked."""
Yes, he has had several people fired and above all a well known journalist and news presenter, Patrick Poivre d'Arvor (or PPDA as is known), who had been presenting the news for nearly 30 years in TF1, a major French private channel because he had interrogated him a question he did not like. Talk about real democratic beliefs, there but then Sarkozy is not alone in that. It is the vast majority of the French political spectrum that is on the same payroll from the same centers serving the same interests and people are merely having the illusion of deciding. The system has already prepared the next one. This is not only a phenomenon found in France but in the totality of modern so called democracies. There is no magic recipe against it apart the establishment of a refendum based state governship (i.e. where elections are held, say every month, to decide on measures directly, not on the governors - this would rather be more of a civil service, than real decision maker).
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