The Greek meltdown
The Greek wave that for so long has been gathering strength on the horizon has finally hit the shore. The Greek debt crisis risks spiralling out of control and dragging other countries down with it. A member of the eurozone has been awarded junk bond status. That is a humiliation.
The months of paralysis, of optimistic-sounding statements from Brussels, have resulted in a full-blown crisis. Greece can no longer afford to borrow money. It has to find 8.5bn euros (nearly £8bn) by 19 May to service its debt. The rescue package it asked for last Friday is already seen as inadequate - £40bn won't do it. Greece will need propping up for at least three years. It will be a country largely dependent on the EU and the IMF.
The total package may be closer to £130bn. The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, says a "default is out of the question" - but the financial markets are not so sure. Despite the rescue plans Greece may need to restructure its debt, giving investors the proverbial haircut.
All eyes are on Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel. She said on Monday that she wouldn't release funds unless there was a "sustainable, credible deficit-cutting plan on the table". Bailing out Greece was always going to be unpopular with German voters. The problem has got much worse.
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The Germans realise they are not just in for a one-off loan of nearly £8bn but for three years of payments, and with no guarantees the money will be paid back. The Germans could end up financing better pensions for the Greeks than they receive themselves. And waiting in the wings is the possibility that other weak economies like Portugal and Spain will need rescuing too.
Piero Ghezzi, an economist at Barclays Capital, is quoted as saying that potentially Greece may need £90bn, Portugal £40bn and Spain £350bn. That is speculation, but anything approaching it would be a Lehman Brothers moment for Europe.
This was precisely the fear that concerned Germans at the creation of the euro - that they would end up pouring their hard-earned money into the hands of the less-disciplined. That was why a "no bail-out clause" was built into the rules.
So a fierce debate has broken out within Germany and elsewhere. Is it in Germany's "national interest" that Greece should be saved? Or should Greece be allowed to exit the eurozone, regain its competitiveness, sort out its debt and rejoin later, when it is in a position to genuinely be part of a monetary union with countries like Germany? It is now widely accepted that Greece was not ready to join the euro when it did. The motivation was political and there were large dollops of fudge to allow it to happen. Wishful thinking can have dangerous consequences.
Even as negotiations continue on what the terms of the rescue package should be the pressures are mounting on several governments: I have discussed the resistance of German voters to act as European paymasters. The Greeks too are turning against IMF help and further rounds of cuts. Many in Greece would like out of the euro. Angela Merkel needs strict conditions to sell it to her voters.
However, the Greek people may say no to further austerity. The head of the Greek central bank has called for more decisive cuts, but can the politicians push that through when already there are daily protests on the streets?
In the meantime the financial markets are revealing acute anxiety. Short-selling has been banned in Athens for two months. No investor will currently be tempted to buy Greek debt. The cost of borrowing and of servicing debt is edging up in Portugal and Spain.
The IMF is prepared to put in more funds. That may help. There is an underlying truth in all this that the IMF has far more experience in handling crises like this than the European Central Bank and the Commission. The belief that a eurozone country should never be bailed out by the IMF has proved an expensive delusion.
The longer term implications are harder to predict. Can the eurozone, in its present form, survive? Does the eurozone need fewer countries with much more compatible economies? These arguments will have to be had. Some say that the problem is that many of Europe's leaders believe that Europe's destiny is ever closer union. They do not allow for a step back or for consolidation.
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~04~RS~)
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The banking vultures lay in wait. These are the same rating houses that over-valued all the housing for their banking friends and caused much of these problems. They are not to be trusted as they have already proven their dishonesty. As the world governments look at the "too big to fail" banking structure the bankers flex their muscle and let everyone know that they can cause great damage to economies if they are not allowed to continue to prey on both citizens and nations. Governments had better bring the banks under control or all nations will be held to extortion. The national governments are such cowards and refuse to defend their citizens or their countries from these modern day higwaymen. The current banking cabal is nothing more than a criminal organization and should be treated as such.
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Gavin wrote: Greece will need propping up for at least three years. It will be a country largely dependent on the EU and the IMF. The total package may be closer to £130bn.
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Piero Ghezzi, an economist at Barclays capital, is quoted as saying that potentially Greece may need £90bn, Portugal £40bn and Spain £350bn.
I'm not the least bit surprised. No doubt the EU-philes will be lining up to demand Germany, Netherlands etc... fork over the cash all in the name of 'Europe' and all that.
I am now even more convinced than ever before: the Euro currency isn't worth saving. Because otherwise it'll cost my country tens of billions and also will devalue our pension funds' capital. Totally unacceptable.
And maybe I ought to go a step further, I would say that it could be considered criminal (could be...) and those who 'built' the Eurozone ought to be held responsible in front of some sort of tribunal.
I am also more convinced than ever that Greece's only option is to default, and default quickly. Screw the bankers. Argentina defaulted a few years ago and is now far better off because of it, don't let banker propaganda scare you into believing it would be different for Greece. Greece's deficit is said by some to be approaching 16 percent and could be even worse than that.
I'd say that it is time to inject this issue into our own election campaign (election date: june 9).
Some say that the problem is that many of Europe's leaders believe that Europe's destiny is ever closer union. They do not allow for a step back or for consolidation.
I'm one of those 'some' who say that. As far as I'm concerned it was a stupid idea to begin with, all done because of the massive ego of a country called 'France' which truly is suffering from post-empire syndrome and is desperate to matter on the world level by using the EU as an extension of French influence so they can finally 'challenge' the USA (long a dream of French and EU-phile politicians).
Disband the EU, and the Eurozone, before it drags us all down with it. I'll support monetary union with Germany but not with Greece, Spain and the other PIIGS. I'll support economic cooperation but demand an immediate end to political integration. I do not care a jot about the ego of politicians.
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Greece should default. Pain for a while. Start the revolution with two fingers to the markets.
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"Some say that the problem is that many of Europe's leaders believe that Europe's destiny is ever closer union. They do not allow for a step back or for consolidation ..."
What? Why no mention, Mr Hewitt, of Europe's peoples' wishes? Ever closer union, a step back or consolidation may be what the leaders are considering (or not). However, the fundamental failing of the EU is that it is undemocratic. Surely, if for no other reason, the euro will now disintegrate. Without political and fiscal union, it is terribly difficult to understand how there can be a sustainable single currency.
Greece is the case in hand. Standby for Portugal, Italy and, perhaps, Spain to follow in short order. Let's call it The Great Unravelling.
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Dear Mr Hewitt,
'Many in Greece would like out of the euro'.
This sounded like a joke,please check your sources again.This kind of information sounds really weird.Without the Euro Greece would have defaulted years ago.Exit from the Euro would be the worst national disaster of the last 50 years,everyone (except the stalinist communist party in case you mean them) in Greece says that.
I understand the interest of British Media to hit the Euro with the first chance.But the crisis is coming fast to our back yards and we may very soon hope to had Euro also.A Devaluated Pound how much Russian Gas
could buy? I wonder..
Regards
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Divided we stand, united we fall. That seems to be the writing on the wall for Europe.
I really think it would help matters if the principle politicians involved could stop changing the numbers so very rapidly. One day it is a small crisis no needing the IMF. The next day it is 20 billion plus IMF help. The next day it is 40 billion. Now it's being revised again.
Nobody seems to know what is going on.
But that doesn't stop them talking and preaching. That's the best thing about party members, aside from their willingness to borrow and spend in your name. They can be relied upon for an opinion on any matter at any time, regardless of how ridiculous their previous statements or how hypocritical the current position.
When a fellow needs a useless opinion to listen to, to sooth the pain of massive taxation, it is a solace that he can set himself down and turn on the wireless, and listen to a party member explain nothing at all for hours on end.
If nothing else, it stops a person needing to violently clutch at their own privates and screech like a deranged simian. That aspect of the human condition is aptly performed, upon behalf of the whole community, by the diligent and conscientious party members of Europe.
Such sacrifice for our sakes is almost christlike, and I'd comment further on that issue except that I'm overcome by the image of Christ crucified to a post by his tongue, and yet continuing to preach all the same. I need to go lie down. Call me when the politicians have saved something new.
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Given that Greek default (my dream option) is out of the question because the other Euro coutries will lend them money. The best use of that money would be to a) pay off this years debt b) buy next year's debt also at it trades at a huge discount currently so they still pay off debt at a discount of about 20%.
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It is a most serious situation, and all decision takers are in Berlin today. It is naive to think that instability of the Euro would affect the Euro zone only. Finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is therefore speaking about the European affects of this.
Those who can follow an interview in German, can see a interview with the minister on ZDF, German Television 2, tonight 22:15 (Berlin time).
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#1. At 2:57pm on 28 Apr 2010, ghostofsichuan
Following an account from Deutsche Bank (an investment bank) showing a formidable profit the first quarter of this year, quite a few of your viewpoints are reflected in German press today.
Banking is becoming a very unpopular business, and many are waiting for the politicians (states) to make regulations of this sector.
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Now on the other hand, puting Portugal & Spain in the same category it makes it obvious that bankers like Mr. Piero Ghezzi, are just overpaid idiots with no real ideas what an economy is.
Even if we assume that the current market analysis is correct and it is safer to put your money in Iraq bonds rather Greek bonds. Why is Spain & Portugal not safe? They both have less debt than us here in the UK & lower account deficits! Yet their rating is lower than ours??? What's going on here!
So it looks to me that if the markets are not crazy, then for sure they are stupid! Or directed :)
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Germany just needs to leave the Euro. A new monetary union could be created later with reliable states like the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, and perhaps UK.
When I think about Goldman Sachs' role in helping Greece manipulate its books for Euro entry -- on top of their role in the "Great Recession of 2008," I have to wonder why these greedy Goldman Wall Street clowns aren't in jail?
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Big loan and now the Greeks are planning a general strike to protest austerity measures which will set back the economy even more. Not that austerity measures such as cut backs in pensions are going to help. As it stands now, Greece is a money pit; you can throw the Euros in but you'll never get them back.
The country needs a huge overhaul. For starters, get rid of the rampant corruption, especially the bribery - this feeds a huge underground economy and doesn't benefit Greece at all in terms of tax revenue. Jail or fire those that ask for/take bribes and fine those that offer bribes. Unless the corruption is dealt with the situation is hopeless.
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It would appear that the situation for Greece is spiralling out of control. I see that the heads of the European Central Bank and the IMF have today asked (begged?) Germany's parliament to approve funds for Greece.
I guess they will not be explaining the bit I read about on the notayesmanseconomics web blog today which explained that Portugal at current prices will be making a loss on her proposed loan. So the proposed solution makes another vulnerable Euro member weaker......
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Has anyone asked the Greeks what they did with the 69B.EUROS that they borrowed? I cannot learn from anywhere what they did with the money! They should be forced to leave the Euro and revert to the Drachma. They will see a surge in tourism if they do and that will go some way in sorting their debt problems as tourism is a main source of income for Greece.
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Default. Greece should return to drachma.
The Greeks and the rest of world need to know, through demonstration, whether the hedge funds, the big currency speculators, bond traders and investmetn bankers etc are happy to let a country fail and going down with milions of people, as long as there are big profits to be made.
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Madoff's $50bn would have gone a long way to payoff Greece's debt.
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"The total package may be closer to £130bn"
Ok, so in a matter of a couple weeks we go from 40-130 billion? I hate to paraphrase a man so ineloquent (GWB) but 'there is some fuzzy math here'.
Things do seem to be getting worse by the day. And wasn't it pretty recent that the EU grandees were all congratulating one another over an agreement?
In the not too distant past the Germans, by and large, were considered enthusiastic 'europeans' I thought. I wonder with them likely to be stuck with a big bill if this paradigm may shift and the Germans might elect more EU skeptical politicians and really put a brake on 'ever closer union' or even demand retrenchment?
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How much tax has EU countries lost to tax havens since the end of WW2? $trillions? Many of those tax haven also benefited from the stabilities and protections offered by armies of other countries without the need to maintain armies of their own. How about hedge fund, venture capitalists, ex-dom, tycoons some of whom is rumoured to pay less taxes than their secretaries and cleaners of their offices. A $trillion or two can be raised this way without scarifices of luxuries.
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The wonderful rating agencies (who were so willing to give super-hi ratings to rubbish mortgage packages) have now decided that Greek debt is - err - not so good: ie they've downgraded it form BBB+ to BB+ (speculative investment). Should this matter? Well, Yes - 'cos the ECB (European Central Bank) stipulates that it (and, thus, other eurozone banks) should lend only to organisations having at least BBB- ratings. And it will be eurozone banks who would be called upon to support any new loans to Greece, in whatever form.
This puts the ECB at straight loggerheads with the ratings agencies. My view is that the ECB should set aside their rule for sovereign debt. This would relieve the eurozone banks of the BBB- ratings problem.
But there is one further factor that needs to be noted - before everyone starts getting into a new fluster. If Greece continues to apply the stringent economic rules that it has set itself, then - with reasonable international economic performance (not certain) they should come out all the better for their pain, in about 5 years or so. Before then, though, the debt levels are likely to get worse (or so the history of other countries' experiences shows).
As far as Portugal, Spain and Ireland are concerned we have to be careful to note the differences. First, Portugal is close to insolvency (ie getting to be like Greece) but not there .... yet. Spain and Ireland are different: they have the potential for paying their debts (unlike Greece currently) but lack current liquidity: ie they don't have cash right now. The rest of the eurozone is in reasonable state and is not about to fall apart.
But what of the UK and the US? Maybe we should ask the famous ratings agencies to be properly truthful about the ratings of each of these two "stars" ..... ?
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What will happen in a near future? Nobody knows, really!? Has one "disciplined" nation this time become out of patience with those "undisciplined"? What is going to be the decision?
In fact, nothing mysterious in predicting such a future. We all knew what could happen with the club faced with challenge. The time of idyll is over. The so called challenges, like the Irish or French referendum, the question of enlargement, and many other "problems", were just the kindergarten. It is now time to be serious, and answer: how far we can go in sharing the discomfort, not only the pleasure, with the other members of the club? For it is surelly "in the interest of nation" to sustain the club.
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Would be much easier if Germany withdrew from the Euro. Then all the other Eurozone countries which seem ever so keen on bailing out Greece can do just that and Germany can reintroduce the more stable currency the D-mark.
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Clegg can win this election hands down, all he has to do tonight is say 'Our economy is trashed, so we'll join the Euro and then we can reduce our pension ages again, cut taxes and let Germany and France bail us out' - I'd vote for that!
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Re2: mvr512, I sincerely like the idea of defaulting. But what does it mean for the country? What are the repercussions? Seriously, there have to be serious repercussions otherwise who would sit and discuss about paying back bankers? Isn't it so? Sale of land? Loss of national ressources for centuries? MIlitary attack by well armed neighbours or infiltration by abstract terrorist groups? I do not know, I inquire to have a basic knowledge before searching more this possibility which by the way I find not at all humiliating and other such niceties. Finance is finance, old dirty paper that tells me little. It is humiliating when there ia question of loss of land. When there question of a mass loss of human life. Of a genocide. These are real humiliations. The rest is just paper. We won't work to buy a Mercedes but to buy a FIAT so once per year when we go from Athens to Thessaloniki we will do it in 5 minutes more (as the FIAT's smaller tank needs to refuel...). Greeks are big spenders and posers but down to the basics contrary to others they are people that can have the same self-esteem without these extensions for the simple reason that men there are easily get laid players (hehe!). Thus the most importantly is that they lose not their land, houses and real property. Money, is minimal. Time - anyway they work more than all European and US citizens included so they won't work any much more. Perhapas they will never get retirement, even better, they will be going to work to hava a coffee with the young ones telling them how bad they are, pappies love that (all over the world). A positive side is that all Greeks expect the large number of illegal immigrants who drag the economy even more done as they increase the needs without contributing to anyone else apart a small number of private businesses and their bankers, to be forwarded elsewhere, to contries "lees humiliates" and "less junk" than Greece. Another positive is that known parties will collapse, hopefully taking away all the real junk, that is Papandreides, Mitsotakides, the Karamanlides and all those families that ruled the ocuntry and overuled its proper development. But the most major positive outcome would be that Olympiacos will fail to get the championship for many years to come.
Do I take drugs or is it that in an indirect way, Putin throwed on the table to "humiliated" Greece much more bulky loads with extremely beneficial rates which come of course not free but with the promise of doing more integrated business in gas pipelines and maritime industry - which alone are anyway excellent news for Greece's economy no matter if tied perhaps too much to Russian interests. The only way that Medvedef did not shout it out with the loudspeaker is perhaps because:
1) the idea will terrorise EU countries like Germany & Britain and will have them conscripting men & aristocracy running inside their nuclear underground caves...
2) Papandreou is a US-citisen and a yes man so he will snub it as he snubs Russian has and Russian & Chinese leasing of ports.
Hence Putin spoke soflty, knowing the above and only for the ears of other Greeks outside the circle of the Papandreou clan.
And here is the question:
Why this crisis did not happen in 2008 with all the riots and summer fires and all that upheaval? Because ND party was hiding the truth? Or because there was fear that the ND party that signed the pre-accords for Russian gas and Chinese leasing would simply answer by taking a 3% loan from Russia thus inviting it much more inside? I throw a guess here.
Of course, one will say that, it is not so much Greece that bankers attack but the euro - well the euro was already high in 2008 and in 2007 while the current's crisis timing followed precisely the Greek succession of power: ND (everything ok)/ elections (evetyhing ok) / PASOK party: big issue on the 3rd day. Thus indeed bankers waited the Greek elections and did not time the attack on euro (which is indeed an attack against it, no question about that) in relation to other factors - for the very simple reason that what they attack in Europe is there, it won't go away in a week by some wizard, it is fundamendaly basic. However, in the case of Greece, the 2 parties while almost identical on all fronts on the inside (i.e. lukewarm capitalosocialism, pseudopatriotism and back stabbings and downright treason, corruption, favouritism etc.) had considerably differentiated externam politics with the socialists being blindly pro-US and the right-wing more lukewarm towards US and rather more pro-Russian.
The secret of "why" it happened has to be traced in:
1) European fundamendals as opposed to US and the world
2) Greece's horrible financial condition
but since both 1 & 2 are standard things, the secret of "why now" has to be traced in Greece's passage of power, thus what the previous government tried to do and what this government tries to do are of outmost importance and a detail that 90% of people seem to miss out.
It is all about seeing the mirror image of the 2 guys behind you at 4 and 8'o clock do behind your back at the same time without having to turn back on the left and then on the right.
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6. democracythreat wrote: Divided we stand, united we fall. That seems to be the writing on the wall for Europe.
I really think it would help matters if the principle politicians involved could stop changing the numbers so very rapidly. One day it is a small crisis no needing the IMF. The next day it is 20 billion plus IMF help. The next day it is 40 billion. Now it's being revised again.
And believe me, it will be revised again (upwards, obviously). Because it's going to be much, much more than that. Is there anyone who seriously believes Greece can reduce a deficit from 12/14/16 percent (whatever it is) to about 4-5 percent in just under three years? Not gonna happen. The piggies eating from the trough are complaining already.
And you know why the EU-ites downplayed the initial figures? Because they find it hard to admit their pet project is failing so hard. And its failing because of their own fault, too! They put the current system in place and they are therefore to be held responsible.
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The problem in Europe is both political and economical.
The emergency meeting in Brussels only a few weeks ago to decide on the Greek crisis only underlined the lack of committment from all member states. We were told after this meeting that the EU would not let Greece fall. However, there was no real committment from anyone within the EU hierarchy. It was a case of creating 'sound bites', but with no real substance behind them.
Chancellor Merkel did her best, but was faced with a wave of apathy. She made promises that, to be honest, she was not in a position to make. She knew then that she did not have the support of the German people.
This is another case of the politicians 'posturing' for good headlines, without making any real decisions.
It is this lack of decision making which is now being seen and analysed by the international markets. Before, they were prepared to take at face value the press-releases coming from Brussels. Now, there is very little evidence of any real decision making that will calm the fears on the international stage.
The European Union must learn that the rest of the world require a firm and sustained decision. Also that the international markets will not wait until next month, the month after, the autumn, or sometime next year for the EU to make a decision on this matter.
By the time the EU leaders finally agree to do something - there will not be a eurozone left to make any decision about.
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So the economic woes are the fault of the greedy (Jewish) bankers? When did I hear that before? Germany 80 years ago, or Spain 500 years ago? It seems like we don't learn from history very well. There always have been and there always will be economic ups and downs, just as there always have been good years for crops and bad years for crops. It's not the fault of some angry gods nor is it the fault of some (Jewish) bankers. It's just how it is.
Who has really spent all the money? Politicians and mandarins in their ivory towers, buying votes and building their empires and ballooning the 'public' borrowing. Year after year spending more than they collect and year after year squeezing us for more to cover up for it. That's why they are going to have a special tax on banks. The banks give lots of money to the overspending governments to pay off their debts, instead of lending the money to us to build businesses and buy homes.
Governments have hidden their profligacy in years gone by with periodic bouts of high inflation, which neatly 'restructures' their previous credit lunacy. Maybe we shall need some more of the same quite soon?
When the next crisis comes, in about 15 years time, will our governments have a big pot of money built up from the special guarantee fund taxes ready to bail us all out, or will they have spent it all on buying votes and building empires? Another gigantic Ponzi scheme, just like our state pensions. Has the government set aside my pension contributions and invested them to provide my promised pension? Or have they used every penny of my contributions to pay out pensions to earlier contributors? Yes, that's what they have done with the pensions, and that's what they will do with the tax on the banks, and this is what Mr. Madof did with his investors.
Or perhaps we shall be so fed up of being squeezed by our leaders to pay for their new clothes that something nasty and violent will happen, like so many, many times before in history.
Who will our leaders blame for the next crisis? Anyone but themselves, of course.
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Greece may default but it won't ask out of the Euro. Whether it can be kicked out is another story.
A Greek government doctor earning 13k euros a year reports that his paycheck was cut and is now earning 11.5k a year.
His pension on retirement at age 65 will be 600 euros a month.
I didn't know Germans were more austere than that. Amazing.
Then we have the additional fact that Germany is tapping 3 year loans at 1.25% and selling them to Greece at 5.33%, an arbitrage play that will create a net transfer of wealth from Athens to Berlin.
Finally, Germans retire at 67 (really, the average is 61.5 but ignore the reality for a second) and they contribute more to the EU than anyone else. Other Euro countries retire at 65, like Greece. This means that German workers work longer to benefit the citizens of any country that gets money from the EU for projects. In other words, all euro countries, all EU countries.
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I find it strange that traders and media are already speculating that the combined EU and IMF loans for Greece aren't enough when the IMF hasn't even started to work with the Greek government to solve their budgetary and financial problems. It should be noted that the IMF only loans money based on is the government following their restructuring program or not.
While I was and still am, in principle against EU intervention to loan money to a member state government that is unable to loan it from free markets, at this time I think it is better to just hand the money and let the IMF and Greek governments start working with the problem.
It should also be highly noted that this isn't the end of the world. This is about government using more money than they have which leads into a simple situation that when the money runs out the government stops spending. This isn't an end of the world scenario with a big hulking asteroid approaching us. For crying out loud, the Greek government might tomorrow put out new legislation lowering state salaries by 20%, cutting down state employee count, cutting down social benefits for the soon to be unemployed ex-state employees, and cutting down few armament purchases and the whole debacle would be solved.
This whole issue is a matter of politics, if there is political will in Greece to really cut down, IMF acceptance and some money from other Eurozone states then this whole saga can be sorted out quickly with minimal amount of damage done to Greek state and society. For now I would hope to give the EU, the Greek state and the IMF time to sort out things and make their game plan, I'm sure it will work out if they just try hard enough to overcome difficulties.
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OK We have all had your fun at Gordon Browns gaff, out take.
But now is the time for us all to get serious or the reporters on big bucks will carry on with this story until hell freezes over. And we will end up like Spain with 20% unemployed. Portugal on the edge waiting to fall off and Greece bankrupt, OK we are not in the Euro Zone (The head of the IMF warns that the crisis in Greece could spread across Europe, as pressure grows on Germany to support a bail-out). Have no doubts Germany will not come to our aid no one will.
So it’s time for the main political to start working together. We will undoubtedly end up with a Hung Parliament. It is said we had one in 1974 but that is not true labour had an overall majority of 12 seats they did enter a so-called lib lab pact that did not work. A lib lab pact as failed in Scotland and Wales. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher only had an overall of 6 seats. The only time the parties worked together was1939 to 1945and that was Labour and Conservative parties
So if it’s a hung parliament it would have to be Labour & Tories working together for the good of the UK.
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Germany is a different case than other EU nations. One should remember that the then West Germany absorbed the then East Germany that was an economic mess at best. The German people invested heavily in bringing the old East up to modern standards. This was not done without sacrifice and higher taxes for the German people. They are not sympathetic with the Greeks protesting austerity measures. There is something about all that sun and sea that gives one a different view about priorities.
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In the last few months, the leaders of the not-so-well-off European countries were keen to point out how different their case was from Greece, and how they were retaining the confidence of the markets.
In a single day, the cost of borrowing rose dramatically for both Portugal and Spain. For the former, the rates stand where the Greek ones stood three weeks ago; for the latter the figure is one month and a half.
Is there people out there who still doubt that the collapse of the Greek bond market (others to follow?) has less to do with the conditions of Greek economy and more to do with rampant speculation, in the face of political blindness on behalf of the leading EU players?
The Greek crisis will be extremely difficult to contain. And it will affect all in Europe. We Europeans stand at a crossroads: Will the EU insist in its neoliberal dogmas, enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty and regularly celebrated ever since, in the face of reality - not even Germany could keep its deficit under 3% last year? Or will it make the effort of a different way to run things, doing justice to all and not only the bankers, big business and speculators?
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It's a great time to be a vindicated EUrosceptic.
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23.Nik wrote: mvr512, I sincerely like the idea of defaulting. But what does it mean for the country? What are the repercussions? Seriously, there have to be serious repercussions otherwise who would sit and discuss about paying back bankers? Isn't it so? Sale of land? Loss of national ressources for centuries? MIlitary attack by well armed neighbours or infiltration by abstract terrorist groups? I do not know, I inquire to have a basic knowledge before searching more this possibility which by the way I find not at all humiliating and other such niceties. Finance is finance, old dirty paper that tells me little.
Default means you have decided to stop paying off (a part of) your national debt. You simply say, we can't pay so we won't.
This is exactly what Argentina did. During the last week of 2001, the interim government, facing the impossibility of meeting debt payments, defaulted on the larger part of the public debt, totalling no less than $132 billion. Of course, the international bankers cried foul but Argentina held firm. Negotiations between Argentina and its creditors followed.
Early 2005, about 75% of the country's bondholders agreed to swap their old debt for new at a loss of up to 70%. Attempts to block the deal were made but failed.
Argentina came out of the crisis better off, and actually managed to decrease poverty inside the country because it had not recklessly slashed services and all that. Some cuts were made but not so as to reduce many to poverty. In effect, the international bankers paid, and not the Argentinean people.
Sure, it took three years, but in the end Argentina is better off and by going the IMF route it would have taken far longer. I advice Greece to do the same thing as well. Politicians must stop listening to corporations and bankers.
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I accept that I am not financially "sophisticated", however I do not understand or accept many things that are going on in the financial world.
Are things just made "more complex than necessary" in order to keep people in the dark (the mushroom syndrome)?.
I have long understood that America is basically bankrupt and lives on credit. Its credit rating is apparently based upon its potential to absorb these problems and to make things economically viable in the long run !. How much time is enough time ?.
If that were so, what about Russia, that has more potential than the USA in natural resources etc.
And finally, who assesses the assessors of credit ratings, are they just free to ride over everything in their path or is there some independant control.
These are not flippant questions and I would appreciate somebody giving me an answer to some or all of these queries !!!
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Mr Hewitt's whole interpretation of the present dire situation is informative and useful as a guide to EU Leaders' quandry.
However, only the very last 2 sentences of the article come directly to the point:
"..Some say that the problem is that many of EUrope's leaders believe that EUrope's destiny is ever closer union. They do not allow for a step back or consolidation."
It is this ridiculously fanciful notion of 'ever closer union' without the pre-requisite of Nations and Citizens being able, ready or willing to follow the Politicians' lead that lays at the heart of the present EUro crisis and the future of the EU itself.
Demonstrate the Majority Citizen need for pushing ahead with expansion?
Show the Majority Citizen support for the founding of the EUro-zone?
Reveal the Majority Citizen approval of the ever closer union ideal?
There is not a shred of evidence the EUropean Union Leadership have won the argument for any of those things!
A "step back"! "Consolidation"!
When did these buffoons at the centre of EUropean integration pause for a moment in the last 2 decades to consider their own Citizens' views & wishes?
Never mind some pyschological nit-picking over who gets the privilege of paying most for an Economic-Fiscal debacle.
The EU is in this diabolical mess precisely because it did not heed the views & wishes of its own Citizen Constituency - - by ignoring the caution and concern of its Citizens those Brussels idealists & those arrogantly powerful Leaders created the EUro-zone, set in train the Accountancy & Currency mischief and ultimately are now expecting the Citizens to pick up the hugely expensive tab for their overweaning ambition that now threatens the whole existence of the EU!
This Greek tragedy is I fear just one among many: When will the Peoples of continental EUrope wake up to the reality of the EU as it presently is constituted? They are being led into a Brussels quagmire of centralised inefficiency, driven by venality, undermined by corruption and utterly without merit as a democratic institution?
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For Merkel and the Germans, this is a typical case of "cutting your nose to spite your face"... amazing that they are so short-sighted..
Consider the facts:
1) Greece borrowing heavily to finance the 2004 Olympic games and to buy huge amounts of hardware (military and otherwise) from, you guessed it, Germany.
2) Merkel et al encouraging German banks to lend the Greek governmnet huge amounts to buy the above.
3) Rife corruption and huge kick-backs to win orders from Siemens, Man, Daimler combined with utter mismanagement by the corrupt previous Greek neoliberal government, accompanied by lots of direct embezzlement of funds by those politicans.
.. do you get the picture?..
If Greece defaults, guess who will hurt most.. not the Greeks..
Merkel is turning out to be one of the most inpet, short-sighted politicians of recent years.... who would have thought it..
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How about the strange coincidence we saw yesterday of the Greek debt being junked (and the spread rocketing) at the same time as the Eurozone was confirming its determination to bail out Greece..
Weird isn't it?.. unexplained?..
Or.. could it perhaps have something to do with the fact that these American "rating agencies" are clearly directly linked with the currency markets (American speculator banks) that have the most to lose if Greece is bailed out?
Convenient no?.. I mean, if you stood to lose billions (if Greece got bailed out) what would be more natural than to try to manipulate the market by posting panicky self-fulfilling prophesies at convenient intervals?
.. and at the same time of course, causing such instability for the Euro that any Chinese ideas of moving away from the dollar would have to be re-thought..
brilliant plan... if it works..
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Spain (one of the Eurozone’s largest economies) will be expected to play its part in any loans to Greece.
But could Spain really take on an additional liability like this without worsening its credit rating still further?
Some of Greece’s rescuers themselves have feet of clay ...
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To mvr512 (33):
There are no free lunches. When you default your loans, the direct consequence is that the markets will no longer lend you money, and if they will do so, they will do with high interest rates. Now not getting loans from the market becomes a problem when the state wants to either invest into infrastructure or ran deficit budgets for a short period of time to help out the economy. Because of the default, there is nothing coming.
We should also note that there is a major difference between Greece and Argentina, while neither after an default can't loan money from markets, Argentina can still print out new money while Greece can't. This is a major difference as it allows Argentinian government to pay of any investments or services delivered internally by just printing more money. Coincidentally the Argentinian inflation rate in March 2010 was 9,7%. In case of Greece, if Greek state defaults, it has to manage with the money that it gets from taxes as there is no money coming, not from the markets, not from the printing presses of ECB.
In short, defaulting just swaps a problem into another one, the only real choice is to solve current problems, namely cut down government spending and fast.
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What happens to the Eurozone is for the Europeans to decide. I believe they are intelligent enough to decide this without interference from others.
Speculating on the currencies at a time when there is fragility is shamelessly opportunistic and is sure to hurt everyone in the end. If need be, regulatory oversight of the currency exchanges ought to be stepped up.
The longer we take, the worse the damage: just as with cancer, or any other grave illness.
Most of all, however, we need to remember quite clearly where the problems in fact originate. It is not in the "Greek character" -- any more than Iceland's recent problems were "caused by being from Iceland."
The root of the problem is the global financial meltdown. The cause of that meltdown has a precise address, to which one should refer all complaints: Wall Street, USA.
All the other weaknesses or flaws inherent in human activities were exacerbated by the great financial meltdown that began in America under the Bush-Cheney regime. Just as in a human body, those relatively unimpressive little disturbances in your immune system can cause a massive breakdown on the day a particularly nasty microbe attacks. The problems of Greece, now Portugal and Spain, are all a direct consequence of the bigger problem that began with the global financial train wreck.
We should all be applauding the Obama Administration for taking on Goldman Sachs as the most visible entity associated with financial markets manipulations and shady dealings that led, first, to the hyper-bubble that was concocted out of securitised US mortgages and the viral, deadly derivatives those spawned; then, second, and inevitably a part of the original intent: the deliberate bursting of that bubble during the Final Act of Bush-Cheney, complete with further croneyism, sweetheart deals and dubious deployments of any number of further schemes on top of schemes...
Small comfort, yet some comfort, to see Lloyd "Who Me? I'm Not an Expert!" Blankfein hauled up before the Committee chaired by Sen. Carl Levin -- brilliantly chaired, and brilliantly effective -- to begin the process of accountability and disclosure of hard truths.
Wall Street worries, according to Mr Blankfein, about "becoming less competitive with others [e.g., the EU] if reforms [such as restoring Glass-Steagall] are enacted."
On the other hand, Europe is also in trouble. So let's stop worrying about "future competitiveness" and generally undertake a sweeping clean-up, sorting and working through the big mess.
In one, two, three millenia of history, or more, Europeans have seen many crises. Some of them were quite monumental. Yet everyone is still here, and even stronger & better than before...
So don't sell yourselves short, whatever the Big Short Masters "of the Universe (No Longer)" might say.
Focus, work, flow. You are all on the same page. Believe, pray and get it done. The way you and your ancestors always have.
There will be a Better Day -- soon enough, and probably sooner than you imagine.
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The Greeks should invite the heads of the major banks for a visit and keep them there until some arrangment for release is made, say equal to the debt.
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@39. At 9:18pm on 28 Apr 2010, Jukka Rohila,
As much as would like to disagree, I'm afraid you maybe right here.
But I have to say that I'd love it if Greece didn't pay it would be fun to watch :))
As I posted earlier the smart thing to do is lend Greece more that it needs for this year so they pay off next year also, as their bonds for next year sell at a discount.
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...also Jukka, I'm happy to point out to you now that as I said earlier Euro rules need to change and all countries must be able to borrow at the same rate! The sitution where different countries borrow with different rates within a union is unworkablbe:)
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Hello Gavin,
Surely Germany as a net exporter have a vested interest in a low valued Euro particularly for their sales in the USA. Therefore what incentive have they to step up and pay up for Greece?
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@41. At 9:37pm on 28 Apr 2010, ghostofsichuan,
I strongly believe that the Greeks and us and everyone else should change the system where we don't rely on banks for money.
Most people here in this board probably believe that countries print money and that, that money is backed up with something valuable. I doubt many people here will realise that banks create imaginery money that lend out to people & governments all that taking place with the bleshing of our government.
They don't realise that, this system gives the bank powers to decide what industries, development path, or livestyle a country should have.
The first thing that must happen is for countries to be in charge of making money not banks.
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Seriously whats next? 30 billions yesterday up to 130 bn today? Maybe 500 tomorrow? If a vote was cast on throwing money into this bottomless pit previously known as Greece (and some others as well) I couldn't be any more against that option.
Why is it excactly bad if Greece went completely bancrupt?
The far overpayed old greek politicians there (who betryed us in the first place) would lose their pensions which are far beyond what they deserve. -- I couldn't care any less
Some banks who lent money in the first place would lose it. -- I can perfectly live with banks losing some speculative money as well.
Some private persons who were greedy enough to give someone money who was never able to pay it back ever, but wanted the 6 7 or 8% they'd received in case it works would also lose their money. -- Serves them right.
The euro would probably lose some of it's value. -- good for exports of any kind, plus it is overrated at the moment anyway as it started at about 70% of where it stands today.
I wouldn't want to be Mrs Merkel these days because if she announces too precise plans before the election in the beginning of May (which she probably has to with daily bad and worse news) her party will loose the election by a landslide and that would mean that for ANY upcoming law in the next year she will not only be stuck with her own cantacerous coalition but also will have to work together with the opposition in the Bundesrat, which would mean surrendering all the major goals they have set for the coming year. However if they manage to stall the topic too long (post election) it might actually be too late to do anything.
The share that is currently paid by Spain and others will rather sooner than later also have to be paid by us and despite the persumably common opinion - money doesn't grow on trees here in Germany either.
So stop any payments and let them run bancrupt, it will probably mostly hit those greedy enough to borrow 'em money in the first place and also the signal sent to other countries is far better than "don't worry at all you can have whatever amount of money you want to". If the Euro is hit too hard by that (which I actually doubt) we can still convert back to the DMark (though I feel that would be a much harsher setback than letting a corrupt country or two running out of fuel).
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or we could get some sunny island as "safety" - doesn't need to be Crete, Rhodos or something of it's size would be neat though.
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Why is it then when California defaults (apparently when, rather than if) and much like Greece nobody seems bothered about the US Dollar even though California is many times the size of Greece and many times more important to the US Dollar? Whereas the little problem in Greece is exercising everyone so much.
Both states are living beyond their means and will have to retrench - that is I am afraid the reality. Neither can pay its debt and neither can devalue its way out and avoid actually reducing state wages. Both are in the same hole. Both have but one solution - which in truth is the same solution that all states have and that is to cut back their expenditure and increase their tax take. Being in the Euro/the Dollar actually makes no difference.
If California was able to devalue its currency then the pay of its state employees would reduce in its buying power, but would appear to be constant in numerical terms - the inability of exercising the devaluation option just makes it more apparent to everyone - it does not make it any the less painful. Indeed devaluation appears such an easy 'solution' it often deludes politicians into believing that they have fixed a problem when they have not! (See the UK 25 percent down and still not fixed anything!)
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A lot of people here are suggesting that Greece "just" defaults on its debt and that "fixes" the problem. Let's look at that. The Greek budget deficit is around 13.6% (it was 12.7% last year, but has been revised up due to the dodgy accounting at the centre of this scandal). Currently Greece is paying around 5% of GDP on servicing its debt. Furthermore, under current austerity plans it wants to reduce its deficit to 3% of GDP by 2014. This means that if Greece defaults on the current debt it still has a deficit of over 8%. It would then have no means of paying that deficit since no-one will want to lend to Greece until the old debt is restructured and creditors actually have some money back. With austerity measures way way worse than Greece is proposing, they could default and balance the books, but the reality is that the only option available to them (if they want to default) would be to simultaneously default, exit the euro, and print money to fill the hole. (They can't stay in the Euro and do this without getting kicked out of the Euro since it would provoke inflation across the entire Euro-zone). In return they get a period of hyperinflation to wipe out incomes and savings of all Greeks and generally get completely screwed.
I know some people would like to see a default just to screw the banks. Nice idea, but the reality is is that it is the average Joe that suffers. A lot of money in pension funds is exposed to sovereign debt - especially the low risk funds that pensions are moved into close to retirement. Also, if the banks lose a lot of money, they end up lending less to businesses, and businesses end up going out of business. This crisis could easily because the tipping point into a double dip recession, or even something closer to the great depression.
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J_R
Re #39
Must disagree on 2 points:
1)Greece will be able to 'print money' like Argentina if it defaults as it will certainly not be a member of the EUro-zone. By defenition if Greece is allowed to Default it will also have been removed from the 'zone' before it does so.
2) 'Cutting down public spending' may seem the answer to a Brussels EUrocrat/apparatchik with no interest or concern for Citizens, but in the real World it is altogether different.
The size of the 'cuts' envisaged by Germany and by the IMF will result in Greek men, women & children facing severe shortages of basic necessities; some Greeks will face the most severe economic hardship leading to extreme social deprivation unseen in the 'west' for many decades.
Distressing scenes of widespread penury, food queues, malnutrition, begging etc. which the EU will not like to see spread across the television channels.
You think it wont go that far. You can write so easily of 'cuts' and have no knowledge of what it is to be unemployed & unable to afford or go without Nurses, Doctors, Social Workers etc. & have even less money than ever before to fend for yourself & your family.
Sometimes J-R you really, really do worry me with your take or leave it attitude to fellow Citizens in difficulties.
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Why should the Germans who live within their means bail out the Greeks who don't? Germany has not lived within its budget so it could give the rewards of its labor to a country that spends frivolously. Germany should go back to the DM and let Greece and Spain and Portugal go belly up.
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Welcome to the "revenge of the rating agencies".
After being accused of "not doing their job", they downgrade a couple of countries (and Spain today)and cause financial CHAOS.
Now they are gonna get hammered for "doing their job".
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Something will happen to keep Gavin's tsunami from running too far inland. The EU elite will then pat themselves on the back, calling it their "greatest hour" and Germany will be on the hook for who knows how much money. Unless Merkel gets a nasty awakening from the Deutche Volk in next month's elections.
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@46,
Yes please!!! I've been advocating that for months now!
OK without the emotional part that you show, but basicaly the same theme!
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frenchderek
Re #19
"Ask" (the ratings agencies) about the '2 stars', i.e. US & UK.
It would make sense to suggest there was something amiss in the US & UK credit ratings if it were not for a fundamental difference between the US/UK Economic-Fiscal outlook and that of Greece & others in & out the 'zone'.
Greece's Government for over a decade cooked-the-accounts; Greece's fellow EUro-zone members knew about or were suspicious of Greece's accounts but did nothing for a decade; the EUro-zone Currency manager known as the ECB allowed Greece & other 'zone' members to repeatedly provide dubious or plain unsustainable statistical figures justifying membership of the 'zone'.
I.e. Paris-Berlin-Brussels connived at presenting a false image of the EUro Currency's stability etc. in order to maintain the fantasy island version of 'ever closer union' in which, "EU is good, All else is bad!"
Neither the US nor the UK Governments were a part of that EU Fiscal horse-trading.
Both US & UK Government have been relatively transparent in their referral to the enormous Financial misdeeds committed by the World's 2 leading Financial Centres (New York & London) in the last decade or so. Both have also proven the statistical analysis of their National accountancy: It is why US & UK Citizens all know there are incredibly tough Economic times ahead despite the worst of the Recession being over.
This Citizen knowledge of the depth of the crisis (in the UK the Election debate is centred on exactly how much and in what manner each Party will deal with the Budget Deficit) among Americans & Britons is in stark contrast to much of continental EUrope where their Political Leadership has consistently lied (look no further than France for a wholly improbable Economic revival that simply is unsubstantiated), and in the case of Greece, Portugal, Eire, Spain & several others if their Governments did not lie about Fiscal standards not being met then they were, not to coin a phrase, 'extremely economical with the truth'!
The top credit-ratings for both the USA & UK are a result of this open account books policy. You should not consider the Deficit vis a vis GDP as being the sole arbiter of what is or is not a safe place to Invest Monies. Commonsense suggests China is about as good a bet as anywhere these days: It has an expanding economy, it is returning high yield interest & seems to be leading the emergence from the World Recession.
Whilst the USA & UK certainly do not match-up to China at the preset time neither do they have Economies supported by unrealistic or discredited Financial analysis.
Equally, any sound investment fund manager etc. would surely be looking askance at much of the EUro-zone at the present time when using the same measurements & considerations as to credit-worthiness.
The US & UK may not be quite the 'star turns' of old, but compared to EUro-zone Members they are still a very hard act to follow.
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Some of you have no mercy. You have to decide, will Greece be bailed out or not? Will my country be a protectorate or a rogue state? I am getting increasingly impatient. Please make your choice now.
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The Greek poor should not be forced to pay for the mistakes of their leaders and the corruption that stems from their rich. Neither must we richer Europeans be made to sort out this mess. A mess which in and of itself is caused by the failure of Greek politicians.
As such Greece should default, get the heck out of the eurozone and be done with it. The only trouble is that it's fellow European banks that have provided the vast majority of these loans. Banks that should also be punished for their mismanagement over the past decade that, in part, caused the international financial crisis. A Greek default would however result in yet more taxpayer's money being poured into the banks of our richer countries to help them survive this blow. Which means we'll end up paying for this Greek spending-spree under almost all circumstances.
This mess is yet another sign that it's high time politicians swallow their pride and we abandon this EU-project. Greece and the Netherlands simply don't have anything in common and even though I am a socialist and all for solidarity I don't want any economic bond between our two countries. Solidarity yes, but we're not a charity. If we here messed up I wouldn't expect a foreign bail-out either, that would only result in extending the inefficience, corruption and waste that caused the crisis in the first place.
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"The Greek wave that for so long has been gathering strength on the horizon has finally hit the shore-line. The Greek debt crisis risks spiralling out of control and dragging other countries down with it. A member of the eurozone has been awarded junk bond status. That is a humiliation."
Greece deserved to be humiliated. So does the EU. It's the price you pay for living far beyond your means. Eventually your credit runs out ad they throw you out of the bar when you can't pay your tab anymore.
"The months of paralysis, of optimistic-sounding statements from Brussels, have resulted in a full-blown crisis. Greece can no longer afford to borrow money. It has to find 8.5bn euros (nearly £8bn) by 19 May to service its debt. The rescue package it asked for last Friday is already seen as inadequate - £40bn won't do it. Greece will need propping up for at least three years. It will be a country largely dependent on the EU and the IMF."
Talk is cheap. All this bravura about support and unity mean nothing if nobody will come up with the cash whem the check comes due. The European DisUnion looks like it's every country for itself when the chips are down. No surprise there. Loyalty is not a trait found in much abundance in that part of the world. Boasting, wishful thinking, and idle chatter take up the space where loyalty might have been. You only know who your real friends are when you need their help. These countries, these cultures, these people never really liked each other ad now when there's trouble they are proving it every day.
"The total package may be closer to £130bn. The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, says a "default is out of the question" but the financial markets are not so sure. Despite the rescue plans Greece may need to restructure its debt, giving investors the proverbial hair-cut."
Out of the question? It's a much safer bet it is unavoidable and inevitable.
"All eyes are on Germany and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. She said on Monday that she wouldn't release funds unless there was a "sustainable, credible deficit-cutting plan on the table". Bailing-out Greece was always going to be unpopular with German voters. The problem has got much worse."
The Greeks don't want to leave the party. Who can blame them. They've had so much fun on other people's money for so long that's all they know. It's not just reverting to where they should have been all along that looms, it's going much further to make up for the difference all these years.
"The Germans realize they are not just in for a one off loan of nearly £8bn but for three years of payments and with no guarantees the money will be paid-back. The Germans could end up financing better pension for the Greeks than they receive themselves. And waiting in the wings is the possibility that other weak economies like Portugal and Spain will need rescuing too."
That's the risk they took on when they invented the Euro along with France. Now they have to live with the consequences of their own mistakes, their own hubris. I don't hear any of that old talk from Europe now. What happened to all the yammering about how they were going to conquer the world. What about all that boasting from Tony Blair about making Europe the best place in the world to do business?
"Piero Ghezzi, an economist at Barclays capital, is quoted as saying that potentially Greece may need £90bn, Portugal £40bn and Spain £350bn. That is speculation but anything approaching it would be a Lehman Brothers moment for Europe."
Nobody knows what the real numbers are. In the long run they could be much much higher. In the many hundreds of billions by some estimates I've seen.
"This was precisely the fear that concerned Germans at the creation of the euro that they would end up pouring their hard-earned money into the hands of the less-disciplined. That was why a "no bail-out clause" was built into the rules."
Then why won't they stick to it? Fear is challenging greed.
"So a fierce debate has broken out within Germany and elsewhere. Is it in Germany's "national interest" that Greece should be saved?"
Yes but by someone else. Now who will step up to the plate? Russia? China? America?
"Or should Greece be allowed to exit the eurozone, regain its competitiveness, sort out its debt and re-join later when it is in a position to genuinely be part of a monetary union with countries like Germany? It is now widely accepted that Greece was not ready to join the euro when it did. The motivation was political and there were large dollops of fudge to allow to happen. Wishful thinking can have dangerous consequences."
Greece would be crazy to exit the Eurozone voluntarily. Their replacement currency would be all but worthless. It might not even be convertable. Why would anyone want it?
"Even as negotiations continue as to what the terms of the rescue package should be the pressures are mounting on several governments: I have discussed the resistance of German voters to act as European pay-masters. The Greeks too are turning against IMF help and further rounds of cuts. Many in Greece would like out of the euro. Angela Merkel needs strict conditions to sell it to her voters."
An enigma wrapped in a riddle shrouded in a mystery. So convoluted, so complex, so utterly lacking in any viable way out. Europe is so clever it checkmated itself. It created a problem for which there is no solution.
"However, the Greek people may say no to further austerity. The head of the Greek central bank has called for more decisive cuts but can the politicians push that through when already there are daily protests on the streets?"
Ya think so? Do you think that the anger Greeks express for the cuts they've made will be quelled when those are just the beginning of what will one way or another be a rapid and sharp decline in their standard of living?
"In the meantime the financial markets are revealing acute anxiety. Short-selling has been banned in Athens for two months. No investor will currently be tempted to buy Greek debt. The cost of borrowing and of servicing debt is edging up in Portugal and Spain."
IMO the Euro is worth about 15 cents on the US dollar, 25 cents at most. That's all it was ever really worth. That's where it is headed if the US doesn't sharply devalue its own currency first.
"The IMF is prepared to put in more funds. That may help. There is an underlying truth in all this that the IMF has far more experience in handling crises like this than the European Central Bank and the Commission. The belief that a eurozone country should never be bailed out by the IMF has proved an expensive delusion."
The IMF will not put up with the lies and games the EU has for so long, nor will it ignore the reality of Greece's predicament nor take endless empty promises on blind faith that has kept Greece and the rest of Europe afloat these last decades.
"The longer term implications are harder to predict. Can the eurozone, in its present form, survive? Does the eurozone need fewer countries with much more compatible economies? These arguments will have to be had. Some say that the problem is that many of Europe's leaders believe that Europe's destiny is ever closer union. They do not allow for a step back or for consolidation."
Oh I don't think the long term prognosis is hard to predict at all. The Euro, the EU and Europe are dead. They just haven't keeled over yet.
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A strange irony of history, it will be seen in retrospect that the very country whose policies precipitated the greatest worldwide financial crisis since the great depression (not that Europe wasn't going to go bankrupt eventually anyway, just not this soon) and the same country that is the biggest debtor in history with enormous budget and trade deficits will be where money goes when fear causes panic and a flight to quality. Yes, many economists are betting that the US will benefit greatly from the misery that has just begun as part of the perfect storm (economic, political, social, demographic) that is just starting to hit Europe. I certainly hope they are right.
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Vassilis - having done your psychography - I bet you would prefer Greece to becoming a total protectorate. That is our difference. I prefer it as a rogue state playing on the balance of power between US and Russia. Mean and bad. No pc softies. That would be fun to see much more than seeing the country repay in 20 years time (i.e. you will never see a good day till your retirement, at least the kids you will do might see some day, also possibly not the case...).
I give 2 typical views from another thread:
"""The scary part is that the Greek public do not seem to realise that the problems are domestic rather than international. From one point of view it would do them good if the state defaulted, because the Greek public might realise that you cannot build a country on borrowed money. You have to earn it yourself.
Magnus Hammar, Stockholm, Sweden"""
The scary part is that you are a half-illiterate Swede that thinks geopolitics is something related to geo and ecology. Everything is relaed dear. In 1920s in Sweden you had famines which we had not in Greece even after the 1922 genocide and the influx of the remaining refugees. And Greece is a mountainous country with little living space while Sweden is an endless country for a 5 million population. Next time you make such comments I will set an S300 missile base and shoot anyone nearing a steel mine within Sweden. Then I would see how much better would perform Sweden if not allowed to exploit its ressources properly like other counries. By the way how come Sweden is not going that well? What is the domestic problem there?
""""I think the Greek strike wave made the difference. It destroyed any confidence that the Greeks will get their act together. The silly German-bashing was a distraction as if the Germans will be Europe's villain forever which is an insult to any hard working German (or any other hard working European - mind you: even the Brits are asked to cough up 1 bn euros for the Greeks via the IMF). The Germans made clear that sticking to the rules is crucial. The Greek strikers made clear that they don't care about the rules. The punishment is fully deserved.
Ronald Gruenebaum, Brussels""""
Ronald, we have already discussed that. Among the working people of Europe, Greeks work by far more than ANY other EU nation. And surpass even the Americans who anyway work more than any other EU nation. How many of you have 2 and 3 jobs? And would you find motivation to work 70 and 80 hours per week to get a total of 1200 euros? Or would you care about the rules?
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Are we surprised that it has come to this? The Euro rules were fudged a few years back by the French and the Germans and now weaker economies are in trouble...more fudging...I wonder. Greece must pay and the banks must pay and the rules of EMU (economic and monetary union) enforced. If they had been earlier, then we'd have less of this trouble.
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@Lars
Dismantling the whole EU because of some Greek antics. This is a bit drastic, isn't it? No more souvlaki for you just patat met.
Anyway, you miss the whole point, the boss (Germany) wants its empire to sell their products. South is useful or has been at least, sun, optimism, excesses, over-consumption. Because they are different, they are complementary. Greek public debt has been known to be excessive for years and years and years. It was no secret. It seemed unsustainable to me that I know nothing about economics, I am pretty sure that this was also clear to the high shots in Brussels, but it was convenient when Germany needed to finance its unification. There is no innocent party in this debacle.
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The opinion that I start to form is the following. The deal with these clowns (IMF and Merkel) will be so bad and ill-thought (severe austerity with minimal badly needed structual chages) that it will be impossible for Greece to follow in the medium/long-term. The problem with IMF and Merkel is that they have in their mind mainly how to get the money that Greece owes and will owe back. So, at the end of the day, Greece will default at a worse position than now and will owe even more money. Euro currency will go down the drain. Thus, it is not in Greece interest to have any so-called bail-out. It is not a bail out, it is a con made by clowns and will achieve nothing. Euro needs polical and fiscal unification and this ain't going to happen. Greece should have a proper default, go out of Euro (probably Euro will collapse anyway) renegotiate its debt, have a generous haircut but pay back most/some of the moneys, some austerity but not create social havoc, and badly needed structural reforms and cure chronic ailments of the economy (with technical help from IMF) and stay away from excessive borrowing and Greeks should be living more austerily from now on within their means (they won't be able to borrow anyway for quite some time. This will teach them). Also, global system has to change. Countries have to be warned of their excessive borrrowing well in advance by markets and not when they have passed the point of no return. There is no point then!
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26. At 7:01pm on 28 Apr 2010, theoldboot wrote:
"So the economic woes are the fault of the greedy (Jewish) bankers?"
EUpris: If some sad people use this as an excuse to abuse Jews then we must act quickly and decisively.
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If Greece defaults and/or exits the Eurozone it still wont fix the main issues, structural issues within the Greek economy that need to be sorted. A lot of countries prior to the Euro, when they got into a fix like this just devalued their currency but never made the reforms necessary to prevent a similar situation happening again. In that sense, in some ways being part of the Euro might be good, if the Greeks take the hard medicine of cuts and reforms.
In Ireland we are doing the same. We don't have the major structural problems Greece has or the history of fudging the numbers but we are making the hard decisions, slowly and painfully. It is being sold as a means of returning to competitiveness but we needed to do it anyway.
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Nik;
An opinion you cited by you from someone ??? from another thread;
"The Germans made clear that sticking to the rules is crucial."
That is factually incorrect. The Germans were the ones who demanded the Growth and Stability Pact in Maastrict because of their memories of The Weimar Republic and the terrible inflation, the flip side of the coin of recession/depression if you try to print your way out of it by generating more currency. And it was adopted. But notably France and Germany couldn't live within its restrictions because they had to finance their lavish social safety nets and couldn't manage it on a tight budget. So they violated it year after year and when it finally got to the EU court where they should have paid billions in fines those two citidels of corruption "persuaded" the corrupt court to declare the Pact obsolete and no longer applicable. They got out of the fines but in doing so jetisoned the one hope the EU had of staving off this day. Now they are hoist on their own petard. This is justice, the price fate extracts for flying in the face of it, for rejecting their own logical arguments because it was politically and emotionally inconvenient for them to follow their own rules when the time came to "walk the walk." Germany is as corrupt as Greece it, it just isn't broke at the moment.
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If Germany's exports are largely dependent on the EU, it will find them dwindling as the dominoes fall one by one and none of them can buy German goods any longer because nobody including Germany will lend them money to buy them with.
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@48. At 10:25pm on 28 Apr 2010, John_from_Hendon,
That is a very good point, however that will not work here for the simple reason that California is part of a real "United States" not part of as MAII calls it "European disUnion" :)
The problem has more to do with the way the Euro is build and less to do with economics or Greek statistics. If Greek statistics and the Greek economy were the only problem with the Euro, then why is Portugal's, Spain's etc. ratings downgraded?
The issue here is that the Euro (disUnity) allows speculators to pick one country after another. There is money to be made it is legitimate and they will make money out of it.
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@MarcusAureliusII Re: 58
Marcus, your facts are not quite right when you write 'anger expressed by the Greeks for the cuts they 've made'.
First, there have been no real cuts so far, just uncertainty for the future which is freezing the market.
Second, the acts of protest and anger which you mention are business as usual of a handful of stalinist communists whom the Greek government allows to block Piraeus port, central streets and several big hotels instead of upholding the law by granting them a free overnight lunch in jail.
Third, the Greeks could ride the storm, absolutely. They run such a grossly mismanaged and extravagant public sector that the money is already there - they don't need to conjure them up.
What is the problem then? the problem is the Greek establishment's mentality that they can get away with everything and pass the bill to Germany.
If Merkel shows no mercy and squeezes the Greek government harder with every loan they get, Greece will manage. I don't know about the other Southern European countries, but Greece will manage.
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@67 MAII,
2/3 of Germany's exports go to other EU states.
What would make it even funnier is that when Germany realises it destroys it own markets, it will have already lend them the money anyhow :)
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This comment has been referred for further consideration. Explain
Has anyone ever been Unemployed suddenly with no prospects except for meager benefits? Its very depressing and reality wise, its horrible ..and please
quit all this panicking..
You are scaring SilverGolfer (above)
And THAT then scares me. Just solve this problem and do it quickly, before I lower everyones credit rating to JUNK...
lil joke, but it IS scary!
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MAII wrote: Then why won't they stick to it [the no bail out clause] Fear is challenging greed.
Sticking to its own rules has never been something the EU has done whenever the rules didn't suit it. And if all else fails, they can always go to the 'European Court of Justice' (an EU court stuffed with federalist judges) who will find some cockamamy explanation as to why some proposal would be legal anyhow. Few people realized that the ECJ has traditionally been the motor of integration, always interpreting treaty articles in EU's favor.
49.dave_h wrote: I know some people would like to see a default just to screw the banks. Nice idea, but the reality is is that it is the average Joe that suffers.
What about the average Joe in other countries, say... Germany... or maybe Netherlands? Should they have to pay so average Joe in Greece doesn't have to take responsibility? And why would the bankers not have to take at least a part of the hit? Far too many commentators and analysts always seem to operate on the belief that the 'market', 'bankers' and 'investors' always have to be satisfied, with the public picking up the tab. With last years banking 'crisis' it would have been far cheaper to bankrupt the banks and bail out the public's savings only. And if you had done that, several companies (banks) with bad/unsustainable business models would have disappeared like they should have.
One thing that needs to happen is an end to the culture that it is considered perfectly normal for government (at any level) to spend more than it takes in. You don't see households structurally operating on a 4-5% deficit, or kids overspending on their allowance to the same degree. Just like that isn't normal, structural overspending by government isn't normal either. It should only be done in exceptional circumstances and then immediately be fixed the year after.
If countries hadn't piled debt upon debt this current mess would never have happened in the first place. Borrowing itself isn't bad but borrowing too much is. The remarkable thing is, that countries and states in Europe all seem to have overspent for the same reason: public sector wages and pensions. Desperately trying to prop up excessive socialist welfare states (Germany and France do this too, and are hiding parts of their national debt: future pension commitments).
They all know it isn't sustainable but they also know that he who tries to fix, loses the next election. So always, the current generation is satisfied at the expense of the next. I'd say that kind of behaviour is criminal...
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Here is another aspect worth considering. Rating agencies like Standard & Poor's have been wrong in the post, for instance, when they gave the US housing market a pristine rating as recently as two years ago. So how can Greece's economy, whose de facto economy could not have deteriorated in such a short period of time be downgraded twice? Also, rating agencies often have good relationships and even entertain corporate partnerships with contingency insurance companies, which profit from adverse economic developpment in countries like Greece. In other words, there is good reason to suspect that they might be corrupt.
Based on what has emerged about those rating agencies, I am now switching over to the side of those who say that Greece should simply default. Greece has got itself to blame for ruining its own economy and squandering its funds, but the rating agencies do not have the right to profit from this.
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And the joke of the day:
We all saw Jeffrey (the real name of Giorgos) Papandreou who did not dare do it in Athens but went to a small Aegean island to have a nice beautiful background as he spoke to explain why he asks "aid". So among others, Jeffrey said:
"... we are in a difficult course, a new Oddyssey for Greeks. Nevertheless, this time we know the route for Ithaca and we have mapped the waters. In front of us, lies a demanding voyage, but with a new collective consciousness and a common effort we will arrive there safe, more sure, just, proud..."
... and the comment by a reader of Nautemboriki newspaper on this speech:
" Someone must inform Jeffry that Oddyseas too knew the route to Ithaca but it took him no less than 10 years to reach there. ALONE. ALL HIS CREW HAD ALREADY DIED DURING VOYAGE!
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Gavin, further to your saying,
“It is now widely accepted that Greece was not ready to join the euro when it did. The motivation was political and there were large dollops of fudge to allow to happen. Wishful thinking can have dangerous consequences.”,
I would comment that probably not only Greece, but also other member states did not meet the EU standards for joining the euro zone and nevertheless they were allowed, somehow, to do it(?!). A joint (ir)responsibility of the concerned EU heads of state/commissioners, who were maybe subject to some additional political pressure, or some evident omissions in the existing criteria for granting the rights for emitting/using the single currency, or both, were in the core of the problem? We still lack a proper diagnose of the gangrene. It’s the main source of the general concern here, in the mainland. One of the possible consequences could be that even some of the newly admitted member states should refuse the use of the single currency… What next?
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@CC,
Good choise!
I don't see either why rating agencies or banks should profit from this situation and to top it all up with should banks feel they have the right to make risky investments that if those investments go bad governments will be there to save them.
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@mvr512,
Most households operate with debts & deficits :) if they didn't the economy and banking system as we know it today would come to a stop.
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If would be a great advantage if everybody here would read:
Greece crisis: Is there an exit? on http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8648456.stm
It would spare us a lot of unsubstantiated opinion writings as well as conspiration theories - but hardly any of the also completely unsubstantiated Day of Judgment theories published by an American here.
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mvr512 wrote: "What about the average Joe in other countries, say... Germany... or maybe Netherlands? Should they have to pay so average Joe in Greece doesn't have to take responsibility?"
No, they have to pay to protect their own currency and prevent the average Joe in Greece from going so bust that he has to migrate or tie a rope around his neck. By giving out loans to Greece now, Germany and Co. actually get control over its government through the IMF so that the average Greek Joe has a chance to work and pay back the loans as well as take a good look of himself in the mirror.
Giving out loans to Greece is not a bad idea; giving out loans without making the Greeks run for their lives is the biggest mistake ever.
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I have said in former Blogs , that the EU took the wrong course , from signing the Maastricht Treaty . "Ever Closer Union" has been the objective since the signing of the Treaty of Rome by the original six , but with the huge increase of member states , many in need of financial aid , that dream is proving impractical and a potential disaster .
Had the EU remained as a Commonwealth of nation states , the present problem troubling the 27 collective states might not have arisen .
The creation of the Euro , without sufficient fore thought and planning , was an even bigger mistake .
I think it is useless discussing all the ins and out of Greece's insolvency . I do not think the lending a large amount of money to Greece will help the situation , it will just prolong the agony , without the hoped for result . I very much doubt that the EU countries lending Billions to Greece will ever see their money back .
While ever Greece is in the Euro , that too will be under threat .
In my view Greece should default and return to the Drachma and not feel beholden to anyone . The greek people are going to cut up very rough if there are severe austerity measure ; whereas if they were free of the EU and the Euro , they would willingly do there utmost to put their Greece on her feet again . Greece is a superb holiday destination and with the possibility of offering cheaper holidays, they could be deluged with people all summer long .
I think that EU member states , especially Italy , Spain and Portugal , should consider leaving the Euro . In fact the Euro should be abolished . The EU should become a Commonwealth of nation states .
The European Commission , Parliament and Court of Justice should be done away with . 700,000 employees in Brussels should be sacked .
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69. At 06:56am on 29 Apr 2010, g_rizzly wrote... wrote nice things.
I see you got the idea, quite rare for a foreigner!
""First, there have been no real cuts so far, just uncertainty for the future which is freezing the market.""
- There have been cuts for the public sector employees. Some 100% justified even before such a crises, some are quite harsh. More should be done to rid of the exta useless personel, not necessarily always by means of firing people but by re-training & reshuffling people sending them in rural areas as there are undermanned services. If they do not like they can resign as well.
""Second, the acts of protest and anger which you mention are business as usual of a handful of stalinist communists whom the Greek government allows to block Piraeus port, central streets and several big hotels instead of upholding the law by granting them a free overnight lunch in jail.""
- Hehe... don't you know that these stalinist communists (and mostly anarchists) are actually all the "cream" (kind of saying, its more of rust) of society? Sons and daughters of politicians, editors, journalists, judges and even business men. It is a tight political circle with connections to information agencies (foreign and foreign serving local ones). You might not get the point here but if I extend this in an analysis on societal manipulation you will understand why their background is such and why police and justice can do absolutely nothing against them. You have to understand well that THEY are the system.
""Third, the Greeks could ride the storm, absolutely. They run such a grossly mismanaged and extravagant public sector that the money is already there - they don't need to conjure them up.""
- As I said in the past, even by doing absolutely nothing else and even if the excessive civil servants are maintained in their seats, if the Greek state cuts its absolutely wastefull activities and blatant corruption, it will save enough money to start repaying the loans without any external aid. This crisis was all the way avoidable.
""What is the problem then? the problem is the Greek establishment's mentality that they can get away with everything and pass the bill to Germany.""
- This is the ruling class' mentality. If EU were serious they would had them already assasinated and Jeffrey wipped and didoed... opps I forgot an "l" there, its ok Angela will bring it.
""If Merkel shows no mercy and squeezes the Greek government harder with every loan they get, Greece will manage. I don't know about the other Southern European countries, but Greece will manage.""
- g_rizzly... Greece needs no more money. It needs restructuring and starting being efficient. What is better? To press Greeks reduce costs passing the normal limit and going into the insane? Or to press Greeks reduce unecessary costs and to start creating real wealth? You cannot imagine the amount of potential in this country (one of the most educated ones in Europe in terms of pre-professional life education) which is going down the drain.
But always keep in mind: Greece's economy was despeakably horrible all the way for the last 20 years but this is not just about the money cos this crisis would had happened in 1990-1993 period (Greeks expected it around then), it is not a financial crisis. It is part of a bigger picture.
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I have been predicting it would come to this as a logical consequence of the way Europe conducts itself for a long time but few here at least from Europe wanted to hear it, refused to even consider it let alone believe it. But it is here, it is real. And IMO this is just the beginning, there is far worse to come. I'm sure there will be the same reaction. Once you reach a certain point in a death spiral, it is impossible to escape. Has Europe reached that point yet? I don't know but the longer you refuse to recognize that you are in one and devise a plan that can actually get out of it, the more forceful the change in direction needs to be to escape and the less likely it is that you will. The walls close in but Europe and Europeans just don't get it.
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It is now widely accepted that Greece was not ready to join the euro when it did. The motivation was political and there were large dollops of fudge to allow to happen. Wishful thinking can have dangerous consequences.
Indeed it was deliberate. The Euro is (was) a project done with exclusively political persuasions behind it. No economic considerations at all. The idea was to wait for a crisis (seriously) and then use that crisis to further integration by proposing a fiscal union as 'the only solution', thus applying the usual EU 'beneficial crisis' strategy that has been used before so effectively.
The idea of fiscal union and EU income taxes has been bandied about quite a lot this year, particularly by France who love the idea of other countries bailing out French banks.
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@ "Greece is a superb holiday destination and with the possibility of offering cheaper holidays, they could be deluged with people all summer long ."
Greece has been awash with tourists for many decades. Not tapping into its tourism potential is not the reason Greece is going down the drain. The problem is that Greece has been relying on tourism too heavily and it has not been building up other industries. Places like Ibiza or Najorca or Crete or Corfu can base their economies on tourism without taking too much of a risk. But the entire Greek nation, which has got massive military expenditure and a civil servant network that can only be described as extravagant was very unwise to neglect building up a sustainable economy.
Even in tourism itself, Greece suffers from its old problem: choosing the easy way and expecting good results. The German, British and Russian tourists in Greece are by and large drunken louts who do not care whether they're in Greece or Ibiza. They want the sun and the beaches. If services were better (five years ago my sister spent a night in a "five-star hotel" in Greece that would not even pass for a youth hostel in England), they would attract an additional class of tourists, not just the yobs.
This is symptomatic of the whole problem. A deep-seated reluctance to develop and a habit of depending upon others for help.
Of course, the biggest culprit in this are the banks and the rating agencies. But one should not forget how the problem started in the first place.
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I recently visited the old East Germany (15 years since last visit) and was flabbergasted at its renewal. The unemployment is very high but the social net is alleviating the hardships and all Germans are still paying the ´solidarity tax ´.
It is often forgotten that at unification, many countries were there with their hands out demanding money for WW11 and the removal of their troops. Russia commented that they were paid every D-Mark, which was nice of them as they also demanded that housing must be built in Russia for those troops returning to the homeland.
I forget the sums paid to USA, UK, France and Russia.
The remarks that Germany did not keep within the 3% of spending and using it to justify Greek excessive spending is a sign that some contributors make no difference between countries (or individuals) that attempt to pay their debt and those who do not. I feel this view demonstrates intellectual or moral failings, or both.
The argument that Germany´s welfare net is the problem is equally flawed. When Germany is doing well the net is used as a reward to the population and when doing not so well the benefits are reduced. If I am not mistaken this is called ´Balancing the Books´
In both the USA and Britain this solidarity between the ´haves and the have-nots´ is lacking. The cry for solidarity is saved only for times of war (which never appears to end).
For those of our American citizens who have lost their homes, a large portion of their pension savings and those who have always lived ´On the wrong side of the tracts ´, rather than bailing out Greece , we would greatly appreciate a reverse ´Care Packet´ action including medical care.
We are all in this sinking boat together and we apologize for our part in it.
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#78
It would spare us a lot of unsubstantiated opinion writings as well as conspiration theories - but hardly any of the also completely unsubstantiated Day of Judgment theories published by an American here.
The American is rather silent... Perhaps he saw some of the testimony tuesday at the US Senate hearing of the Goldman Sachs people. That showed the USA at its "best". I.e. a former presidential candidate (who got about 60 million votes in 2008) seemed rather tepid, and more or less out of his depth, when questioning Blankfein. Other senators made quite clear they did not like that GS seemed to be selling CDOs they knew were doubtful, while still shorting them. One thing hardly discussed here is the role of the rating agencies in the 2007/8 crisis. After all, these agencies seem to have overrated the CDOs then, so how can we be sure that they are not misjudging again, now by underrating the creditworthiness of some European countries? Do we really have to take their wisdom for granted? Capitalism functions partly on a pre-capitalist attitude known as trust, which has eroded significantly lately. The current crop of EU 'leaders' don't help much, in this respect.
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@79 Mathiasen
Given the present absence of legal procedures for leaving the euro zone, the 3rd scenario is to be excluded. What remains as a real possibility is some painful combination between the remaining four scenarios.
Are we all trapped here? I think yes.
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@75. Nik,
Nik if we are going down the Oddyssey path, I would imagine that Oddyseas was the only one that was keen to get to Ithaca! The sailors most likely would had been happy to stay with Kirki or some other nymphs they met on the way :))))
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Merkel is reported as saying that Greece should never have been allowed to join the Euro.
I take that to mean that she is blaming a predecessor of hers amongst others.
BUT the UK should not haver been allowed to sign up for the Lisbon Treaty. She is as much to blame for that as anybody. It could cause more trouble than Greece in the long term.
So, Merkel, GROW UP and demand that we in the UK get the referendum we were promised!
The "EU"-crisis must in part be down to the arrogant, anti-democratic behaviour of Merkel, Blair, Brown, Milliband, Sarkozy, Barosso, van Rumpoy, Ashton and others.
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@MAII
'Germany is as corrupt as Greece it, it just isn't broke at the moment.'
I agree. Germany is strong and big so it can manipulate the courts, and bribe almost everybody at high level (Siemens etc. numerous examples of high level corruption coming from Germany) Greece is weak and small so can do whatever it can at lower level (fudging a bit the numbers to get a few pennies, low level widespread corruption etc. all unacceptable in my book though, I descrine not judge) in this 'happy' disunion. They are all in it together. All these were well known at the EU level. Their pathetic cries for bad Greeks and good everybody else is a show that convinces me not. Every country has its own problems as I said long before (first to admit that Greece has severe problems in their financial system, other countries have similar problems and/or other problems). If Greece is a particular problem why there is contagion? why is this spreading? Greece is used as an scapegoat from Germans to claim that the particular problems of Greece is the main problem. Unacceptable as they are Greece's problem is not the root cause of finacial havoc in Greece and elsewhere. It is mainly a systemic problem of Eurozone.
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Quietoaktree
Re #86
Quote, "..**we** apologise for our part in it.."
No!
'You' are apologising.
That is your right & privilege contributing to these Blog debates: That right & privilege does not extend to You claiming to represent anyone but yourself.
Your views, your opinions, your perspective are all entirely acceptable for inclusion in any debate.
I thank You for your contributions, but I cannot write/speak for anyone else on the matter.
Now, will You kindly stop presumptiously pontificating on behalf of others.
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Marcus the A:
You may wish to note that the EU purchases 20% of US exports. Problems in the EU will certainly impact the US economy. The Wall Street boys who created the problem with the complicit actions of the US Congress present a take over of any pretense of a democratric process in the US. The US has no higher moral ground as the liars and thieves run the country. The rating companies that are down-grading EU finances are the same ones that over-valued all the banking housing schemes, they have proven their dishonesty and complicity in the global financial melt-down. The corruption in the US government and economy has equalled or surpassed anything one would see in Asia.
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"'Germany is as corrupt as Greece it, it just isn't broke at the moment.'
I agree. Germany is strong and big so it can manipulate the courts, and bribe almost everybody at high level (Siemens etc. numerous examples of high level corruption coming from Germany)"
well the first quote comes from someone who is known on these blogs for not understanding the things he writes about. But you agree with him vassilis?
Let me tell you a little secret. Those companies quoted as being examples of "German corruption" are always the same - Siemens, Mercedes, HochTief etc... Corporations, let me tell you, do not have nationalities. That's what makes them multinationals; they operate all over the world and they have multinational boards of directors.
So if you want to quote those corporations as examples of "German" corruption, then Lehman brothers, Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, General Motors and Ford must be quoted as examples of "American" corruption. Yet corporation do not have any feeling of solidarity towards any region of country. Their anglophone/germanophone names are a reminder of the countries they were founded in, but they leave American/German workers in the lurch as quickly as they will leave Greek/Italian workers in the lurch if they find that things can be produced cheaper in Chinese sweat shops.
As for the level of corruption, Greece is far more corrupt than Germany. I have lived in Germany for nearly two years now and I have never been asked to bribe a doctor for treatment, bribe a civil servant for processing my residence status or bribe a post officer for having a parcel delivered. In Greece, bribery is common. It is a part of their lifestyle.
These things can be measure by the way, and they are measured:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transparency_International
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It looks like a few more weeks of EU leaders "navel-gazing" and they will either have to pay double of what they can get away with today or they may not even have to take their eyes of their navels as there will be no need for decisions to be taken:))
The way the "markets" are behaving today is in a similar fashion to that of 2008! Replace fear of "exposure to toxic debts" with fear of "exposure to soverein debt" for recently downgraded countries and soon the banks will stop lending to eachother again and lending will get stuck again:)
So we are back where we started:)
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Re85: Chris, I cannot agree more with your views on Greek tourism. People overthink about tourism but you should be aware that in the last 20 years' 300% agumentation of world tourism - and while we would not expect Greece to follow this closely since much of this 300% was around new destinations in Asia, Latin America and Africa - Greece tourims agumented only by 8% from a normal 50% it should had at least attained. In real terms it meant Greek tourism got diminuished. Micro-property and part-time employment in tourism meant that Greeks presented mainly basic rooming facilities for low-cost tourists, usually young people who come for SSS, i.e. sea, sex, and sun. The overall augmentation of prices in Greek martket meant also that even the low-cost could not work that well hence tourists stuck to doing... diet regimes having 4 people sharing a greek-salad and a water-melon for 1 day to save money for the night's drinks. It is no secret that people in touristic places prefer 10 times the Greek tourist than the foreigner as the Greek leaves more money and behaves better. And for both categories a basic room with basic facilities
But there is another major explanation why the high-class tourism has not got a lift in Greece. Indeed there have been efforts to built hotel ressorts of high-class services and such BUT... many of them work averegely. Why? Because they are irrelevant to the reality of Greece. No matter the late pseudo-poser attitude of Greeks, Greeks really do not have the mentality of "exclusive". A high-class resort in the best beach of the region, closed and "private" quickly gets an atmosphere of "sterilised hospital garden" that is simply out of space. Greeks hate private beaches, they do exist of course, but they are anti-constitutional as no private property can close access to sea (so if you are in Greece and want to go to a private beach and some security guy does nto permit you, you call the police right there, he has no right! On the top, Greeks are very hospital people, you can enslave them if you tell them 1-2 good words, but they are the least servile people you will find around - on top Greeks are not people that pretend and are pepole who externalise their feelings which is the worst for high-class service. And high-class tourists simply are not attracted by people who do not feel servile towards them. All that in combination with the above as well as the very low wages paid for people, the very expensive land, the risk of the investment etc. etc. means that the only real possibility of having a near-high-class (but not the top class) tourism in Greece is to have a company that buys rich people's villas and rents them at rich customers for their holidays providing them some basic services (cleaning etc.) but not the full range of a luxurious hotel (its a villa not a hotel) - in this way you force also the rich people to mingle with the surrounding region and not remain in a - probably foreign investement - luxurious resort where most of the profit flies to soe Swiss bank.
Chris having passed into my 4th decade I am not young anymore to roam around but still if I am bored up with our summerhouse and the 200 beaches of the 3 peninsulas of Chalkidiki (of the best beaches in Greece, Europe and world at 1 hour distance from home) and decide to go to say a Greek island, I will certainly avoid, even if I can afford to have it, a luxurious hotel. Why? Because it is an island. I will get the boat and not get a cabine to sleep inside, I will sit outside in the sun next to the closest company of kids playing guitar. I will land and speak with the locals to find out reasonably good room at reasonable price. All I care is a room with a nice view over the sea or at least a nearby veranda with a view to the sea so that I can drink my morning (i.e. near-noon) iced coffee there as well as eat my water-melon and feta cheese in the evening after the beach. The only thing I expect from this room is to be absolutely clean and from statistical experience, rooms which are run by women are better than those run by men as women are ashamed if you tell them the room was not clean. I do not expect to eat there but to brink my own food, anyway I will eat in the local tavernas fishfood, good fish cooked the Greek style, nothing on it, just lemon and oil and that is all. Only demand, the taverna to be next to the beach too. I have had not rarely nasty surprises and I tell them in their face changing instantly the next day for a better deal which even if negative is part of the adventure but for the most of it, I spot not badly. Vacation time lost with this method is minimal as in a typical island I do all that in 2 maximum 3 hours for room and vehicle, while also touring at the same time in town, talking to locals and tourists. I rent an old open-top Suzuki Samourai jeep to do a bit of roaming and a bicycle and every couple of nights or less I might pass to the most tacky-kitch night club around town (you spot them cos they are the British inside, keen hunters of the cheapest beer around), but it has to be next to the beach so I can go out and lie on a stretcher with my woman under the moonlight. That is vacation for me. Freedom. If I wish to go to an all-inclusive luxurious hotel with private beach and such, that will be in Maldives, Dubai, Thailand or from the other side, Martinique, Bahamas, Florida and so on...
Actually people think that tourism in Greece is the biggest industry, well guess what it is not - I think it is the 3rd after maritime and agriculture (if I am not wrong). Hence interest has to fall necessarily to these two industries prior to tourism - nonthless these can be linked of course.
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@88. generalissimo
We are all trapped. Germans and Dutch are clearly unhappy to bail out Greece; they feel they have done nothing wrong; why should they pay for the Greeks? Greeks are also unhappy to be bailed out in this way; many common Greeks feel they are paid peanuts and they feel they have done nothing wrong. Why should they suffer? There are different (justified or unjustified) ill-feelings. What a mess! Incompetent politicians big time.
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Re90:... you forgot Jeffrey in that list!
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The Greek debt crisis may be spiralling, but it’s not yet out of control; further, other countries (all of the STUPID PIIGS) made their own decisions, used their own research in accordance with their own financial regulations. So, in this sense, how is Greece responsible for dragging down any of the STUPID PIIGS?
Brussels you will find is never paralized; it just seems that way because when brilliant people stop and contemplate, there appears to be very little motion.
So Greece can no longer borrow money. It still has options such as calling a five-year moritorium wherein there would occur no debt repayment so that Greece can quietly, truly audit her position and restructure the debt. Some of the debt may not be legal...
European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, says a "default is out of the question". Do we not trust the words of Jean-Claude Trichet? Jean-Claude Trichet is the current president of the European Central Bank, a position he has held since 2003. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of BIS (Bank for International Settlements). Trichet attributes the banking crisis of 2009 to an under-valuation of risk within the global financial community. He has called for a "paradigm shift" (That means total change.) in the global economy and reforms to decrease shorts within investment banking and increase transparency.
Trichet is economically brilliant. I’d keep my eye on what he’s up to!
Greece should be allowed to remain in the eurozone, regain its competitiveness, sort out its debt…
Have we considered, seriously contemplated, that Greece may have believed her public accounts were pure? Think about it: Many sharp investors got wrapped up in derivatives, found themselves suffocating in CDOs and ultimately lost their collective shirts. What would be the reaction if the country fleeced was not Greece but the UK?
Are you so sure this will not happen to the UK?
Short-selling has been banned in Athens for two months – too little, too late.
The cost of borrowing and of servicing debt is edging up in Portugal and Spain.
If this were happening in the UK, would it accept bailing out by the IMF?
Can the eurozone, in its present form, survive?
Yes. I believe we may be in for a "paradign shift" out of Brussels:
1. tighter, better legal regulations, which will include audit trails and perhaps outlaw derivative trading entirely within the EUROzone and
2. identification of illegal investments that will result in Court Cases. It’s not legal to “gamble” on a Government’s sovereign debt.
Worries the crisis is exposing fundamental weaknesses in the euro is where some people want the attention to focus.
But I believe that the EU (its financial wizzards) have their eyes directly focussed on the correct traget.
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Quietoaktree.
I have been in 'east' Germany a number of times and You are correct to suggest there has been a transformation. However, it is worth noting the extremist right-wing nationalist Parties all have their roots & largest support among that population.
Doubtless this is a reflection & reaction to the tawdrily unpleasant tyranny of the DDR Government, but one would have hoped after 20 years of genuine democracy and better economic prospects this unstable backlash had abated more than it has done so far.
While on the subject: The victorious Allied Nations in May 1945 were not in Germany with their "..hands out demanding money..".
After 6 years of 'Total War' warfare extending across continental Europe, European Soviet Union territories, the British Isles, North Africa & the Mediterranean the Allied Nations occupied defeated fascist Germany, Italy & Austria (plus USSR in former fascist supporting Hungary & Roumania).
The Allies were there as an occupying force because of the territorial aggression of the Fascist regimes.
Fascist Armed Forces invasions conquered vast tracts of land, peoples and property: In the resulting lengthy and brutal armed conflict to oust the invaders even more huge areas of the above regions were laid waste.
At the end of the European War the USSR, USA, GB as the principle 'liberators' quite rightly demanded Reparations from the mainly German-Austrian-Italian nations whose illegal and violent actions had brought about such an immense and costly Armed response. Similarly the former Occupied nations inc. France, BeNeLux, Greece, Yugoslavia etc. that had borne the brunt of the conflict's cataclysmic destruction insisted on Restitution/Compensation for the War crimes of the Fascist nations.
Later, the new state of Israel and 'West' Germany would agree on more reparations.
The record massive amounts of Reparation paid to the Allies while always open to debate are not the point: Millions died, millions more suffered & millions had their lives disrupted forever by a militarily aggressive Fascist political philosophy that broke every constraint on Human conduct.
The Allies had no recourse but to respond in kind. Though we can always argue how motives & reasoning changed as the War progressed and the causes of the aftermath it is basic fact for those incredible efforts on behalf of civilised humans the Allies deservedly made Germany etc. pay heavily.
Whether the billion dollar Patents confiscated by the USA, the 3,000,000 German POWs forced labour in the Soviet Union, or the free coal deliveries to Britain and France, they were all part of an entirely justifiable punishment of Germany & its axis partners for allowing and equipping a monstrous regime's attempt to conquer and enslave all Europe.
A 6 year tragedy became the quagmire of Cold War divisions in continental Europe and elsewhere: Hindsight may lead to all sorts of issues being raised, however, the Allied Victory in Europe is beyond doubt a significant and decisive moment in taking the cause of Humanity forward.
One portion of that decisive moment breaking with past methods was ensuring an example was set as to what any future Leader & Nation might expect for such violent actvities (cue: Iraq, Afghanistan etc. but I'm not going to bite...).
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As an American who due to his frequent travels has to often change US$ to Euros I cannot honestly say I'm displeased by the current developments.
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#92 cool_brush_work
Then you accept ´intellectual or moral failings, or both´ ?
I will NOT apologize for all 3 !
And don´t count the fiscal eggs as being hatched in either the USA or UK . I fail to see any objective financial commentator overflowing with such confidence in either the USA or UK.
And the problem is massive IN-TRANSPARENCY in both countries.
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@94,
I agree with most of your statement, the only part I have some doubts about it, is the "lifestyle" part. People are as corrupt, as much as they think they can get away with. Let me give you an example, here in the UK corruption is very low, but our politicians thought they could get away with any claim they could dream of under the sun, so they claimed all they could.
What I'm saying here is that people are as corrupt as the system allows them to be. There not un-corrupt Germans & corrupt Greeks or English.
So the problem lies with the system rather than the people. I think German systems allow for far less corruption than Greek systems and that is an area the Greeks can improve easily without the need to enrich their "gene pool" with uncorrupt german genes :)
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@Chris Camp
There are different types of corruption (have lived in north Europe for many many years) depends how you measure them but OK, what's your point? I am not here to defend Greece. I agree the corruption in Greece goes deeper and it is actually a big problem. Is this the source of current crisis though? don't think so. If it was, the problem would have confined in Greece. I only laugh at the posts of high moral ground that come from north Europe. They are so disingeneous and besides the point of the whole crisis. DisUnion it is.
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@ChrisArta
and you will have North Europeans to blame the (existing and very wide and very bad) Greek corruption, Greek character and whatever Greek for the collapse of global economy. If this is the case, it is indeed a very nice designed global economy system and depends critically on the financial state of 2% of EU. This is butterfly effect, chaotic behaviour. Global economic system is wrong guys. Can you get it? You will always have groups of people doing their own stupid thing.
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#88. At 12:07pm on 29 Apr 2010, generalissimo
You ended: Are we all trapped here? I think yes.
This is what German politicians said to the German public after internal consultations on Monday in the parliament.
Many hear are losing their heads, I think we should ours in place, but now is the time to be modest with predictions. There is actually a considerable economic substance in the Euro zone as well as in the EU. In the worst case scenario of the PIIGS-group there will be huge loses, first of all in Europe, but people will realise - again - that we are creating our wealth together. Isolationism and isolated solutions have no chance, and this afternoon the media are reporting that a solution is close to be there.
You can be sure that in the next act there will be political consequences of this. The German president, and former leader of the IMF, Horst Köhler, has today criticised the bank in a sharp tone. Hopefully there will be consequences for the banks too.
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"Whether the billion dollar Patents confiscated by the USA, the 3,000,000 German POWs forced labour in the Soviet Union, or the free coal deliveries to Britain and France, they were all part of an entirely justifiable punishment of Germany & its axis partners for allowing and equipping a monstrous regime's attempt to conquer and enslave all Europe."
coolbrushwork,
while I agree with you on the general principle of war reparations paid to the non-aggressing nations of France, Britain and the U.S., I do not see how slave labour in Russia can be seen as "justifiable" in any way shape or form. Human rights extend to everyone, whether or not they live in a country that is or has been aggressive.
What makes this matter even more complicated is the fact that Russia and Germany invaded Poland simultaneously, as planned in the Ribbentrop-Molotov protocols. Russia never paid reparations to any eastern European country for what it did to them.
This is why I think it does the American, Canadian and British soldiers who fought and died in WW2 a lot of injustice to mention them in one breath with the Russian aggressors against Poland.
Germany got what it deserved. The brave western Allies should get what they deserve - a historic narrative that does not tarnish their image.
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#58 MarkusAureliusII wrote " Oh I don't think the long term prognosis is hard to predict at all. The Euro, the EU and Europe are dead. They just haven't keeled over yet."
Dogma and hate does mot make up for logical arguments. Its quite clear from your comments (including other boards) that you want to belittle and deride Europe. We understood that- its does not need tiring and boring reminding on every occasion. It hinders a rational discussion, it puts off people. The Europe and Germany of your fantasy does not exist. Instead, i am living and working in a Europe of tolerance and cooperation. All empirical evidences show that Europe has the best places to work and live (quality of life index), including for women and children. You portray the EU citizens as dumb recipients of 'policy' and 'communist' etc. almost on weekly basis. In short you insult- which is not the best of foundation for discussion. And if i have to deduce your knowledge base from your sweeping statements, i would say you have exposed your ignorance enough.
P.S. provocative discussion yes, dogma and xenophobia, NO
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"Fascist Armed Forces invasions conquered vast tracts of land, peoples and property."
"Whether the billion dollar Patents confiscated by the USA, the 3,000,000 German POWs forced labour in the Soviet Union, or the free coal deliveries to Britain and France, they were all part of an entirely justifiable punishment of Germany & its axis partners for allowing and equipping a monstrous regime's attempt to conquer and enslave all Europe."
No doubt Facism was a nasty creed that had to be defeated. But let us just consider the history and background of the glorious allied freedomfighters who achieved it. The horror a Stalin's Russia needs little explanation. It is now little disputed that his communist regime was equally evil as Hitler's nazi regime and killed more than twice as many people, something that is no longer disputed by modern historians. (See the latest Katyn horror story)
What about the history of the glorious British Empire at the start of 1939. Britain had invaded (sorry, built an Empire) of a quarter of the globe. They largely distroyed the infrastructure of India, ruining its thriving cotton industry so that the mills of Lancshire could provide the world with its goods. Before that it was the most ruthless slave trading nation of all, starting in the 16th century by establishing its tobacco and cotton estates on the back of black Africans, going on to grow immensely wealthy with its "holdings" in the West Indies,exterminated the Carribbean Indians, the Tasmanians and any other small island nation that stood in its way. Africa was next where even the grandfather of the present American president was tortured by the english rulers.
The American allies had stolen the land of the original inhabitants and had also largely exterminated them. They southern (english established) statesaquired their wealth again through slavery and treated most nations they encountered with contempt, including the Chinese whom they only allowed in as virtual slave labour to build their railways. (no doubt the chinese are having the last laugh now).
If there was one good thing that came out of these two world wars it was the fact that they spelled the end of empire building and reduced the British to just another European nation, the Russian empire collapsed and the Americans seem about to join them. Poetic justice indeed.
So did any of these former allies pay reparation to those they enslaved of exactly where is the cut off point?
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@ChrisArta 103.
Good points. And what is the origin of this difference (of course not genes) but past history. If current crisis has the by product of correcting bad aspects of the system in Greece, it will be great news welcomed by Greeks. Let's see though... do not trust these neoliberal clowns (IMF, emperor Merkel) and have low confidence in Greek politicians.
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Fact 1: The EU doesn't have any of its own money - it gets it from member states
Fact 2: Many of those member states are currently struggling with massive public debt, in the sights of international currency speculators, and being told by the EU to savagely reduce their spending to cut deficits. The very existence of the Euro could well be at stake
Fact 3: The EU administration budget for the current year is to rise by nearly 5% - that will cost member states more in contributions, thereby worsening their deficits. No sign of cuts there
Those running the EU seem to live in a bubble, completely isolated from reality. There is, inevitably, much economic pain ahead for many, if not all, EU member states, and certainly within the Euro area. It is high time that some, if not most, of that pain was also felt by the institutions of the EU itself. The EU in its present form is the problem, not the solution, and it is last past time that politicians realised as much and stopped forcing it upon their unwilling citizens.
Lets have those masive public spending cuts. But let them start where they are really needed - in the lavish ivory towers in Brussels.
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#100 cool_brush_work
Let us assume I believe your story. Your non-observing that the former citizens of East Germany are at the front of the fight against Fascism is an important omission in your argument ? A portion may even be called Communists.
Germany appears the only country in the World to have admitted to Genocide and war crimes and Germany has NEVER denied its History (unlike those countries who attempt to alter history for nationalistic reasons) so I miss your point completely.
Only one hour ago on NPR radio a politician requested that Chicago be designated as a ´WAR ZONE ´because of the increasing murder rate.
I suggest you take more seriously my `Wrong side of the tracts ´statement as in our Constitutional Right to be destitute and `down and out ´
Even Greece has not yet achieved this low level of poverty and destitution - of which you appear to be proud.
My country has just ruined the financial lives of millions around the world-- and the carnage has not ended, and YOU are complaining about MY apology ????
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@#100 cbw
As I was born in the former GDR and was old enough to participate in the 1989 revolution I would like to correct you on one point:
While East Germany certainly is the center of right- wing extremism (something I am deeply ashamed of), the dangerous ideologues are almost exclusively hailing from the West.
Although it cannot be denied that communist totalitarianism has left the fertile mental ground for right- wing extremism, there is also a clear link between the latter and economic and social desperation. As unexcusable as it is, people tend to look for a scapegoat especially in times of economic hardhsip.
And since this sad fact has had terrible consequences in the past, and since no one can be absolutely sure that those ghosts from the past could never again appear in Germany, peace, stability and social security are the sine qua non for our people.
and btw, those experiences from 1989 are also responsible for my belief that the democratisation of Europe is possible :); if it doesnt fall apart before, that is.
@Nik
What I forgot to ask you on the other blog where some of your remarks were obviously related to Greece's security issues with regard to Turkey and/or Macedonia:
Whats your opinion on Turkey's EU membership?
@vassilis
Please be assured that what you may hear out of Germany these days is not representative for all of us. There is a campaign run by the tabloid Bild newspaper and the conservative Springer publisher behind it, and both have been a disgrace for this country for decades. Unfortunately, in times like these, there will always be those who sniff the opportunity to come out of their rat holes with simplistic slogans and solutions instead of offering responsible differentiations.
But thinking in black-and-white or good-and-evil terms has been a regrettable fashion on this planet, not least since that dark day for democracy back in 2000 on the other side of the Atlantic.
Greetings from Berlin
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Greece owes 300bn€.That means that Greeks borrowed this money.But where have all this money gone.A Greek family of four (parents and two children) owns two cars, two televisions, 1 pc kai 2 laptop computers, four mobile phones, clothes(lets say Gap or a pair of levi's jens) and cosmetics,perhaps one child studing economics abroad,lets say in Manchester(there are a lot of greeks studing in UK) and drive to the super-market(owned perhaps by Carreffour or Lidl) with their Seat leon to buy Guinness beer, Head and Shoulders shampoo, toothpaste perhaps colgate etc.But Greece doesn't produce any of these and the agricultural policy of the European Union has blocked the competitiveness of greek agriculture.
Greece had 18.64bn exports in 2009 and 61.47bn imports.For the Olympics Siemens gave 100mn€ to bribe greek officials(yes greece is the most corrupted country in the E.U,it's no secret) so that greece would buy security systems worth 1.5bn€.Greece bought submarines worth 2 billion from Germany and leopard tanks worth 850mn€.The Rio-Antirio bridge, a large infrastructure project in the country was built and operates by Vinci Concessions (54.57 shares in the project) and the new Eleftherios Venizelos International Airport was built with the participation of the Greek public and a private consortium led by German firm Hochtief Aktiengesellschaft(would manage the airport for the next 30 years).If a friend comes to borrow money from me i won't continue lending him money even though i know he has ,lets say a gabling problem.Foreign multinationals companies and banks lend us so that we can continue to consume and then we have to repay and the product and the loan and the loan's interest.
Yes, the Greeks are in charge, so must be punished and be more careful in the future but I feel that some people do not tell me the whole truth and make decisions without involving me because in every national election ,every four years ,(elections should be held every year i think) I try to vote the less corrupted party but i never get to find a honest and promising politician.I just hope that the rest european leaders are better than the greeks.So of course first of all blame the Greeks and of course one should not help us, but the question is what kind of european community we built and how European governments protect their citizens.
I may be wrong in what I say.I m just trying to figure out what happened and suddenly Greece became the worst economy in Europe and without any future.Also the American interests IMF has linked its name with at least 15 dictatorships worlwide so i don't think it belongs in europe nor in Greece.
Pardon my English and sorry for the long text
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Quietoaktree
Re #102
'..intellectual or moral failings..'
Of course one has to accept them! What sort of World do You inhabit where these failings do not exist?
They are regrettable but wholly Human foibles of greater or lesser extent depending on the circumstance and each one of us has his share. Where possible corrective measures are taken, but an apposite Middle Ages observation is that like the 'poor' the failings 'are ever with us'!
Could not agree less with your inference about the parlous condition of the USA & UK Economic situation: It is precisely because of the transparency in those 2 nations that they are not facing the same strictures by the Fiscal agencies.
True enough neither nation is in the clear but nor are they in the international dog-house for Government-inspired financiual malfeasance, unlike some of the 'zone' members.
Will agree there is a very long and doubtless treacherous economic-fiscal recovery ahead: For which the poor old bally Citizen tax-payer infantry will as ever pay the full price and in the case of some unfortunates their future will become so impoverished it will tarnish the false glossy image of the EU-Brussels cabal of venal servitude to 'Big-Government/Big-Business' for years to come!
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#109 margaret howard
I have visited the British detention center for the Indian Freedom fighters on the Andaman Islands in Port Blair and appreciate your contribution.
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Chris Camp Re #107 & Margaret Howard Re #109
We have been here before, haven't we!?
So much certainty: Almost every part of it fuelled by hindsight - - now if either of You would care to inform me of which 18 year old waiting to go up to Oxbridge or wherever is going to be Prime Minister in 2035 or so, then I really will accept History has boundaries!?
Margaret, You use the term 'glorious', but for those involved it was neither a glorious nor a gaffe, it was just their lives - - rightly or wrongly they committed themselves to the fate that Humanity had in store for them - - good and evil emerged and IMO History's story has an astonishingly long perspective (see below).
Chris, You are still insisting there was some sort of joint-enterprise invasion of Poland in 1939 and me pointing out that is utterly unsubstantiated by the facts of the era!
2 versions of the same event! How can this be? Surely there is a correct/truth out there somewhere!?
No!
Agreed Germany POWs suffered appallingly during & post-WW2 in the USSR: Perhaps the Wehrmacht, Waffen SS, Eizatsgruppen A,B,C,& D, Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine etc. should have not ventured into Eastern Europe or perpetrated Operation Barbarossa to enter Ukraine, Belarus & Baltic States and thence to Russian territory.
Had they not done so they would most probably have avoided the inevitable wrath of the Red Armed Forces 'liberation' march westward to Berlin!?
I'm afraid History is not actually about morality or ethics: History is concerned with recording who did what to whom. Causation is an infathomable multitude of differing influences; taken alongside personal motivations it becomes each person's viewpoint of particular pieces, but there is never a whole answer or full account. And given the variation of Human nature results are always fascinating and unfortunately often dreadfully gross.
Only in hindsight can any of us attempt (and that is all it can ever be) any sort of judgement: Always keeping in mind the proviso that there is no such thing as impartiality no matter whom the Historian.
Thus You, I and everyone can rejoice in the following unforeseen evolutions among this sprawling mass called Humanity:
But for the brutal invasion and occupation of the Indian sub-continent Mahatma Ghandi would never have led a Pacifist Movement that inspires us all to this day!?
Likewise, what would Nelson Mandela be without the vicissitudes and atrocities of Apartheid!?
How noble would have been Pastor Dietrich Bonhoffer without the opportunity to sacrifice himself in the place of another because of Nazi bestiality!?
That wicked Slave Trade has in part made the first Black USA President!?
Chairman Mao's People's Republic inspired Fidel Castro!?
Carpet Bombing Coventry and Dresden has led to remarkable shared empathy & activities between the 2 great cities!?
Henry Ford was wrong, History is not 'bunk': It is all Humanity's mistaken misconception, but only in the glow of clever hindsight!
History is endless in its curiosities of Human inter-action: It does not mean People should not work for what can be loosely described as the common good; however, someone's good or evil today will doubtless come to light and be judged in hindsight in the tomorrow and an incredulous World or just a local neighbourhood will take note, debate and move on.
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#109
Sigh...where to begin with this post.
1) The first European slave traders were Dutch. The biggest slave traders were the Portuguese. The US didnt abolish slavery until way after the British. Mankind has been practising slavery since 2000bc. The British were not unique.
2) India was able to very successfully transition to independence BECAUSE of the very infrastructure you say Britain destroyed.
3) The same Lancashire cotton mills were decemated because Britain refused to side openly with the Confederacy. The Union blockade stopped all cotton supplies.
4) It was the Spanish not the English who exterminated the Caribbean indians. Spain was involved in the Caribbean long before the English. The same is true of their actions in South and Central America, much it has to be said, caused by disease rather than systematic genocide.
5) How were the southern states "English established"?
6) Chinese labour was used to build railroads all over the US but primarily connecting the industrial north with the west. They were treated like dirt but what does that have to do with the south?
7) You leap from the slave trade in 16th C Caribbean to 1960's Africa. Barack Obama seems perfectly happen to live with what the British ARE not what they WERE. Why cant you?
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#58
"Oh I don't think the long term prognosis is hard to predict at all. The Euro, the EU and Europe are dead. They just haven't keeled over yet"
The trouble with your prognosis,Doctor, is that you actually WANT the patient to die. Thats some bedside manner you have.
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"Chris, You are still insisting there was some sort of joint-enterprise invasion of Poland in 1939 and me pointing out that is utterly unsubstantiated by the facts of the era!"
What I said is corroberated by solid facts, which were known then and are known now:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact#The_Molotov.E2.80.93Ribbentrop_Pact_and_its_secret_protocol
In our last little chat about this, you completely ignored this. I can see why.
I am not saying this for fun. My Scottish grandfather faught in WW2 and I will not have him lumped in with the Russian aggressors whos raped and killed scores of Ukranian, Belarusian and Polish women and children on their way to Berlin and intensified their action when they got there.
Therefor, as somebody who has a firm belief in British ethics and values, I will never accept any rationalisations as shallow as the ones that you put forward:
"Agreed Germany POWs suffered appallingly during & post-WW2 in the USSR: Perhaps the Wehrmacht, Waffen SS, Eizatsgruppen A,B,C,& D, Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine etc. should have not ventured into Eastern Europe or perpetrated Operation Barbarossa to enter Ukraine, Belarus & Baltic States and thence to Russian territory. "
Human rights are inalienable. Slavery is not an accepted or acceptable form of war reparations. I am all for war reparations. I am totally against my grandfather being lumped in with barbarians who saw the German aggression as justification to rape women and children, enslave people and keep half of Europe hostage for over 40 years.
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EuropeanFederalist
Re Your #113 & my #100
Completely take your point and accept your knowledge of the 'East' extemists' 'leadership' (from the 'west') is more upto date than mine.
Not sure why Quietoaktree got so rattled!
I was not casting aspersions on modern Germany: Only have to look at the UK BNP success in the 2009 EUropean Elections, the Dutch voting patterns, or the rise of the 'Extreme Right' in Hungary's national Elections this month to realise that the "..scapegoat.." mentality is unfortunately all too alive and well in the recesses of every European Nation.
IMO the National & EU Governments whilst not innocent in these matters (a Referendum in the UK would have seen 'extremist' support destroyed, but instead the breaking of the promise fed the right-wing propaganda) cannot be held to blame for most of the development. Neither can it all be the fault of corrupt supposedly 'communist' Governments of the Soviet era.
Afterall, it is some 65 years since the end of WW2 and Human memory is a fickle thing: The glib, sloganised, soundbite answers of Fascism will inevitably become more acceptable again in certain social strata as time passes - - it will be the same with 'Communism' - - the demise of either Political systems is far from certain.
When we read MAII, EUpris, ChrisArta, Chris Camp, Quietoaktree etc. contributions it is clear there is a huge diversity of opinion out there. All of it open to persuasion: If the going gets tougher and it does seem very likely for continental EUrope and the British Isles over the next few years then where will a supra-National entity such as the EU stand on such matter as Political Representation?
At National level each Nation has its processes: The EU is marked (& I would say condemned) by its lack of Democratic credentials - - how could or how will Brussels deal with a very Right-Wing Government installed by Majority Citizen Vote - - we have seen in this Greek debacle that the EU Rule Book actually means nothing when the big prize of 'ever closer union' is at stake. Will the EU acquiesce to a Government that retrenches on Human Rights for minorities such as immigrants, races etc.?
Unfortunately, I have to think it will do so rather than risk having a Member State withdraw and the 'one-size-fits-all' ideal be exposed as the Political farce that it is.
Mind, no Nation has fallen that low as yet. Let us hope my doom & gloom scenario is not around the corner of an EU Nation plunged into a Debt Crisis enough of its innocent and desperate Citizens refuse to pay for and therefore look to the glib, soundbite, scapegoat Party for a way out!
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Re109: Just to fuel your critiscism... in India not only they ruined the thriving cotton and spices industry (the latter replaced by tea exported only to Britain at extremely low prices) but they also replaced basic staple crops like rice and wheat with plants used only for cloth colours so that at some point in the late 19th century food stocks decreased so much that on a bad year a hige famine broke out - still there was some food to alleviate the misery of people but British preferred to sell it elsewhere for profit preferring to let Indians starve.
Anything between 15 and 20 million people died. Can you imagine this? Of course fat old Victoria and her underlings had been 100% on the same level with Stalin and Hilter. No doubt.
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#120
Agree 100%. Comparing 1939 Britain to the Nazis or Stalin's USSR is deeply misguided and disturbing. Even Marcus would probably agree that the self-professed bastion of democracy that is the US would not have lumped itself in with the British if there was even the remotest of truth in that accusation.
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@EuropeanFederalist
Thanks for your kind words and the ability to see beyond the tabloid titles.
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Re114:
""Greece owes 300bn€.That means that Greeks borrowed this money.But where have all this money gone.A Greek family of four (parents and two children) owns two cars......But Greece doesn't produce any of these and the agricultural policy of the European Union has blocked the competitiveness of greek agriculture.""
Dear, someone has to consume isn't it? If Germans and French produce and only their citizens consume what do they do if not a hole in the water? Someone else has too to consume. Of course all countries can try to produce and export and try to be in the positive but as the economists of late 19th century had correctly identified capitalism is an equally artificial to communism system which cannot exist in nature by itself. It has to be enforced. And by enforcing it some countries are found in the sole place of consumer. To support consumption without a production base, loans is the answer. Greece was a particular case in the sense that due to its earlier boomm in the 1950s-70s it had an almost unique in the world percentage of home owners (almost 80%) which was visible by the enlarged middle class of the country which was created in the 1950s and remained there until the late 1980s (already attacked in some ways since early 80s - though it was not yet visible with the lavish yet selectively targeted gifts of the disastrous Papandreou PASOK government). With some many homeowners even if without tax evasion it was possible for people to have some money on the side to buy others' consumption. Now how will the creditors win? Not by receiving back the money but by enterring and taking over ressources, infrastructure and above all land.
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To ChrisArta (39) and (40):
Your suggestion to handling this crisis is to have all Eurozone governments to loan with the same bond rate from the markets. However how do you achieve this and how do you set up natural boundaries and mechanism to restrict government loaning? Let say the options are...
1) ECB loans from the markets, and then re-loans to member states... The questions are then, how does the ECB determine credit limits for the governments? Will we have some set boundaries that are the same for all or some algorithm that shows how much money can be loaned to a particular member state? Now what if the algorithm says "No more new loans"? What if a member state doesn't pay it back? ...Should the ECB need not only European Monetary Fund, but also European Collection Agency?
2) ECB packages different Eurozone government bonds into Collateral Debt Obligations and sells them to markets... Again the problem is non-existent market mechanism to restrict government loaning. If the are no restriction then problematic member states can just put out more bonds that the ECB has to package in with better bonds, the end effect being that markets will calculate risk carried out by "subprime" loans to some member states and then charge it from member states with better finances.
3) ECB acts as an intermediate, setting up a general bond rate, and all govermeant then sell their bonds at the set up rate... Now why an investor would invest into Greek bonds than to German bonds if the interest rate is the same, but the risk is not?
I think that we should recognize and remember that the Greek case is an edge case.
The normal case is that markets evaluate continually risks associated with different member states and by setting up rates accordingly, markets will reward states with good finances with low interest rates and restraint states whose financial situation is deteriorate. In normal order of business, when loaning money becomes more and more expensive from markets, politicians and other leaders of the society start to restrict loaning.
However in an edge case like the Greek case, something extraordinarily happened.. state and leaders of an society behaved very irrationally, there was not only a fraud, but there was long term cover-up and negligent of state finances... That is why the normal market mechanism didn't work.
In my opinion, we have a good system in Eurozone when things are running normally, we shouldn't throw up that system away. However edge cases like this, we should have some kind of backup mechanism...
Maybe for example when a country fulfills Eurozone requirements, i.e. debt to GDP ratio max 60%, current budget deficit max 3%, then a state is free to loan money from markets, but if a state is over said requirements, they would be required to loan money from or via ECB, maybe a linear line of debt to GDP ratio 60% (0% from ECB) and 100% and over (100% from ECB). A stringent to ECB loans would be that it or an other agency would have more and more power to decide on finances of said country, on the more it would loan. If a member state government would be unable to manage their economy, ECB would override them and set up their own consultants to do it for them until the situation is solved.
What ever the answer is, there are no free lunches. If Eurozone will have an mechanism that is not a market solution then Eurozone states have to give up power to the EU, ECB or some other agency, and this transferral of power will not be a small time transferral, at max states would have to give up their right to default.
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To cool_brush_work (50):
I disagree...
Default doesn't mean discharge from the Eurozone. It will mean big political drama, but not necessitating leaving out of the Eurozone. Why? ..Because there is no legal backing for doing such a thing, but also because there is nothing to be won by doing so.
And then I disagree even more strongly. I do care about my fellow citizens and human being, but an unfortunate truth is that we live in an finite universe. There are finite number of resources and production. If a state is overspending, then it has to reduce its spending, simple as that. Let me also remind you that I know what a real economic depression is, I did saw the 90s big depression, having short term interest rates in near 20%, having corporations and individuals going bankrupt, having official unemployment rate near 20% and heavens know what in unofficial numbers, but was it that bad after all? People managed and with right restructuring programs things got better, a lot better.
You are painting too grim picture on what Greek is going to look like in worst case scenario, I bet that it won't be nearly as bad as was the situation in Finland in the beginning of 90s.
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#121 cool_brush_work
I am rattled because the `The pot is calling the kettle black´
When the flag-wavers, like yourself, wave the flags at half-mast will I believe you take some responsibility for our the crimes against our own citizens and those of other countries.
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Re113: Starting from my view of the EU candidature of Turkey I will give 2 viewpoints:
1) In an abstract world, really I have no opinion on the entry to Turkey and that means I do not oppose it, I do not actively support it. Not hot not cold. Why should I oppose their entry? I did not oppose the entry to Poland or to Slovenia. For Greece if all neighbouring countries enter the EU it is for the best. Up to 2002 Greece was the only isolated non-islandic country in EU which partially is another reason why it did not do well (as the EU is largely land-based and not so ocean-oriented as Britain knows better...). So with all neighbouring countries in the EU it is better. What if Turkey maintains still a fascist state that does not recognise the genocides of 1912-1922 and the pongroms of 1955-1974, what if it imprisons people for daring raising such awareness? What if their culture is in constrast with the very basic European values (European does not mean to working in a factory, not wearing a burka and going to discotech...). I really consider Europe so much out of all these moral questions with most countries under the table fully accepting the genocides in Minor Asia but refusing to recognise them over the table, so that really I can accept Turkey in its most radical form, I have absolutely no problem. For us it will be much more simple: they will have to cease to be aggressive, they will have to retire their army from Cyprus and let the army reunify, Greece will cut its military budget by 50% or more etc. Their weight over Europe is of no concern to me, that will be an issue for Germans and French. Their increased demographics is of no issue to me as if Turks move in a second free-wave to Europe they will go mainly to Germany and France. Problem is that it won't be so much Turks but other muslims of Asia but that is already going on in Greece so it won't make a difference to me if it happens to Germany and France. Why should I care if they will find themselves in a rather akward political position? I am not being ironical there, take it linearly, I really do not find any negative element in Turkey's entry in the EU for Greece. Turkey will leave Cyprus alone, will cease to be aggressive, will accept the 12 miles in the Aegean. So why not accept them in. Yes why not?
2) In the real world, I just find the issue ludiscrus, I just do not believe all that farse that is being played. Turkey is a country that maybe is an EU candidate for several decades but still illegally occupies the northern part of an EU member (Cyprus) and openly threatens with war another EU country (Greece) if the latter applies its sovereignty (thus EU sovereignty!) and it keeps interfering in the Greek airspace and sometimes sea space while in 1 occasion in 1996 the 2 countries did enter in a small scale war with Turkey having landed troops on Greek soil, on Imia small rocky island... it is just that you in the rest of Europe are not at all aware of these. So I find all this situation of Turkey's candidature is very funny, extremely funny. How can Turkey be candidate with all that going on? And is really Turkey prepared to accept 1) leaving Cyprus alone, 2) ending all its expansionist claims against Greece and respecting the international sea-space conventions? Well no, I do not think so. The whole country is still (and even more) tuned to remain aggressive they cannot clock it down overnight, it is a matter of interests there. Apparently they are not interested in enterring the EU but just discussing. I really do believe that the issue is elsewhere and in the EU-US-Middle East triangular relationship in which Turkey plays the geopolitical marionette of the US with which the US probes EU and EU responds accordingly: up to mid 90s almost all EU countries voted for Turkey apart Greece, then Greece said "why not change song", and voted yes for Turkey and Germany jumped up terrified and voted no for Turkey stop hiding behind Greece and revealing their true anxieties in this issue.
So my answer is yes I do view their entry as positive for Greece as their entry will Turks will start to behave, in reality I do not believe it since it is not Turks that decide for themselves on such reasons. EU will have borders with Iraq, biggest US base in the Middle East and I do not think that US would ever let something like that occur. I think that if Turkey joins the EU it risks being dismemebered (Kurds and other minorities etc.). And as we know EU is not a military alliance and Turkey will find itself on its own. This is known to Turkish leaders and that is why they simply play the game of talks for talking.
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Glanced in by chance, and saw this; Chrissie :o))))))))))))), you are at it, again?!
"My Scottish grandfather faught in WW2 and I will not have him lumped in with the Russian aggressors whos raped and killed scores of Ukranian, Belarusian and Polish women and children on their way to Berlin and intensified their action when they got there.
Therefor, as somebody who has a firm belief in British ethics and values, I will never accept any rationalisations as shallow as the ones that you put forward."
Chris, do you wear a badge "I Hate Russia" on your shoulder?
Your Scottish grandfather would be ashamed of you - the first thing.
That generation people have far clearer view of the war than you are.
They were not processed yet through mind control. And even those who were later on - preserved the sense of decency, and something very bordering a sense of gratitude - to Russians.
Secondly, you are as usual, very educated in pan-European affairs.
Who "raped"? "all the way to Berlin?" "Polish, Ukrainian and Belorussians"?
One would think - if the Red Army was so busy raping :o))))))) - who was fighting? When did they have time :o)))))))), plain, curious :o)))))))))))))
You've got VERY weird ideas of war making, Chris. An army should avoid having you by all means.
Anyway, FYI - even that it doesn't :o)) seemingly :o) ever get through to you. a mental block. - glorious "Ukrainsky Front" and glorious "Belorussky Front" - were taking Berlin.
"Ukrainsky" - fershtein? "Belorussky" - eh?
Made up of Russians under cover :o)))))))))), who sneaked into Ukraine and Belorussia, in the previous centuries, one would think, naturalised there :o)))))))), acquired passports, and learned to pass themselves for real Belorussian and Ukrainians :o)))))))))))) - when marching into Europe.
And. I want. to be in that number!
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#129 nik
Your arguments still sound Greek to me !!!
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margaret howard
"It is now little disputed that his communist regime was equally evil as Hitler's nazi regime and killed more than twice as many people, something that is no longer disputed by modern historians. (See the latest Katyn horror story)"
Little disputed - by who?
Name the countries.
I'd think - Britain and the USA.
Question - how many British and Americans lost their lives to the "equally evil Stalin regime".
Please bring the heroes to the studio.
I now it is useless to point the difference between being murderous for own people and involving 32 countries into a World War II -
you think that's the same - because it doesn't threaten YOU now.
During the 2ndWW I don't think you'll find a SINGLE British or an American - of the opinion that Stalin is same danger :o))))))))))) to him/her as Hitler.
But once the danger goes away (by means of evil country headed by Stalin in that war), sies clear up :o)))), folks ww cheer up - THEN you can COMPARE and DISCUSS and BLA BLA BLA.
Until the next danger point - save god - when you will be again able to see "the difference" quite realistically. Meanwhile, you can indulge in self-illusion.
"latest Katyn horror story"
Eh?
You must be of the opinion
"Katyn-1 - Russians beheaded Polish elite; Katyn-2 - Russians beheaded Polish elite"
Well, hold tight :o))))) Russians don't believe in either.
That Putin recently said "Stalin did it" - we interpreted it one way
"Ouch! Takes deadly sin on himself - lies. Must be, wants something from Poland."
As is rightly said in Russia - the way that elite lies in Katyn - forgot the exact order (sorry, I am Russian :o) - I think, it was established by the Red cross commission in 1943 (Goebbels invited them to have a look :o)))) On the occupied Russian territory, where Germans were masters, for 2 years already.
Sudden damn good Goebbels intentions - inviting Switzerland and British over - Have a look! All! What Russians have done! :o)))))))))
well, anyway, as far as I remember that first discovery report - 14 bodies lie head this way, 14 boides lie heads opposite, 14 bodies lie... etc. all neatly nicely every burial place - and strictly matching - to 1 person - the total discovery "number"
As Russians say - in that order even nuclear warheads are not stored in Russia.
Anyway, with Katyn-2 - we indeed began thinking.
Just 3 weeks ago the late Polish president was, how to say, a not very popular politician. Zero chances for re-election. Of him, and his whole "elite". Only a lazy didn't complain about his party.
Then after the catastrophe - we ve got Poles in all forums saying "weep with us! we've lost the most dear ansd wonderful person, our President!
the public opinion turned 180 degrees. Sea of flowers, Wawel cathedral burial place - along the top Polish leaders of the past - the degree of admiration growing every day - until it arrived to the national martyr status - the most admired in Poland status - mind it. For Poles simply love their first Chrystian martyrs. It is a national idea. They canonise their tragic heroes - to incredible degrees.
Just give to Poland a good tragic story - in 2 months you'll get a national hero and a sufferer.
(very opposite to Russian attitude - we canonise our losses :o)))) - into total victories :o)))))) We think we have WON, every time.
And Poland thinks it has LOST, every time.
Diametrically opposite approach to national history-making, but then - tastes differ.
In other words - what we now see - is that the people who died in the avia catastrophe - our indeed viewed 3 weeks later as the cream of the cream, the precious elite of the nation, the best of all worlds.
Russians naturally began thinking - was the first Katyn elite - the same?
There are lots of questions, and an interest afresh to Katyn-1 in Russia.
Nothing is desired better than disclose of the famed "Folder No 1" (Russian presidents and previously Comm. Party Leaders file on Katyn')
We really think there is much to see in it!
It was partially opened just once - and NEVER the originals were shown out of it - just "a copy" :o))))) - by Gorbachyov - he extracted a couple of pages out of it - when he wanted to defeat his Communist Party opposition in the late USSR times, and badly needed a compromising material on them.
That's the only time couple of pages - in "copy format" - were extracted.
What's the originals - hell knows. That copies were falsified by Gorbachyov and Yakovlev - no doubt for a sec. In two pages - 60 mistakes found already :o))))) - wrong names of institutions typed in (never existing back then), wrong signatures, wrong stamps, and , how to say, as lawyers say - 4 mistaes per page are enough to make a "document" - void - to say nothing of 60.
The originals of those pages Gorby refused to present to the People's Soviet of the USSR - 2,000 deputies from all regions, gathering in Moscow, to vote on key issues, several times a year.
They demanded - he refused. Said - you should rely on my word, as a country leader. The deputies had our President and our Prime Minister
swearing to them - that the presented copies are real.
Upon the word of the country's President and the Prime Minister.
They discussed the news for 6 hrs - without leaving the hall, and by direct open voting - voted - more than one half of them "To believe".
The originals of those pages were presented out to the day light ONLY 3 YEARS LATER. Because the identification process of that time didn't allow to check the authentity of the document once it is 2 years past falsification.
That's Russian understanding of Katyn-1.
Hangs upoon the Gorbachyob and Yakovlev's honest word - and "originals" -withheld from historians for 3 years after copies of them were presented.
And, of course, on the majority vote of the People's Soviet of the USSR.
The rest of fact is British-Swiss combined commission excavation in 1943, in occupied Russia's territory, who arrived there on kind Goebbels' invite.
Katyn-2?
We think it's dancing on the bones - and God - he sees everything.
You can't fool him.
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trivia;
"Its quite clear from your comments (including other boards) that you want to belittle and deride Europe."
Now what would give you that idea? Could it be because I've said over and over again that I hate Europe? Is it sinking in that I actually mean it? I guess if you use a jackhammer long enough, you can get through even the densest brick wall.
"We understood that- its does not need tiring and boring reminding on every occasion. It hinders a rational discussion, it puts off people."
OMG, it puts off Europeans. Hmmm, when the shoe is on the other foot and even one American says Europe stinks, that hinders rational discussion among Europeans. How easily the train of thought among Europeans is derailed. Maybe that's half their problem.
"The Europe and Germany of your fantasy does not exist. Instead, i am living and working in a Europe of tolerance and cooperation."
Oh really. Have you read the news lately...like these last ten or twenty years? Asked any blacks of North African ancestry living in France if they agree? What about Turks living in Germany? Romanians in Northern Ireland? Hungarians in Slovakia? Roma anywhere in Europe? Don't hold your breath waitig for Germany to empty its bank accounts to bail out the PIIGS. They just might not feel like cooperating...when it costs them money. They'll tolerate anything...if it's for free.
"All empirical evidences show that Europe has the best places to work and live (quality of life index), including for women and children."
If you are the right race, ethnicity, in the right place that might be true. Having lived off American taxpayers and workers who paid for Europe's defense these last 65 years, given it one way trade advantages for the longest time, given huge tax incentives for large American corporations to invest in Europe and send American jobs and industry there. And now with globalization, Europe continues to live the lavish life on borrowed money and borrowed time. Guess what...the time is up, the free lunch is over, the credit card has run its limit, and Europe is flat broke. The party is over. Want me to reprint the lyrics to the song again or can you just refer to a prior thread? The pinball machine has gone tilt. The game is ended. Europe will revert to where it was when America found it...impovrished, full of hate, and at each others throats.
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@MAII#102
Your argumentation reveals your true origin- arrogant, self-centered, closed-minded- indeed truly traditional European.
Americans, at least those educated few, would be far more convincing if they'd start thinking about their own screwed "manifest destiny".
Being an arrogant European myself I do admit to find it difficult to respect anything brought forward without the slightest trace of self- criticism or humbleness by someone from a "nation" that considers universal health care socialism, keeps regularly electing absolutely incompetent people for president (exceptions such as Clinton or Obama notwithstanding), views itself as the defender of democracy despite general low voter turnouts, despite malfunctioning voting machines and the inability to hand- count votes (something which is done in Germany at every election), a "nation" calling for freedom which it has denied and keeps denying a large share of its citizens and on which together with human rights it trampled unperturbedly at Abu Graif, a "nation" that keeps terrorising its neighbours, a "nation" and a people that borrow relentlessly, start wars relentlessly, eat hamburgers relentlessly, keep getting fatter relentlessly, know nothing about anything yet claim to be the chosen people, elected by far the most intelligent president they could ever hope to have only to disillusion him instantly.
Good Night America, please sleep long and recreative. We'll just get along fine without you in the meantime.
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So when the banks were basically bankrupt the world jumped in and bailed them out, still really no questions asked. Greece is not bankrupt but is being shafted by the world with stupidly high interest rates created by credit rating evaluations by Standard and Poors' which is basically an offshoot of a bank. Have I got this right? Now. The world jumped in straight away to bail out the banks.. what is the problem with a country. I say to Greece :"Refuse any more interest payments until the interest is brought down to a realistic level". Go for it Greece..
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Hey Alice, good to see you around!
Don't waste your time, but don't be a stranger.
And Marcus, I fear you are right, or at least close to the money, with your last post.
I don't hate Europe, yet, but I live in Switzerland, and so consider myself living in a different universe.
I think the fundamental problem with Europe is the sheer lack of democracy. I include the UK in that statement, of course. People just.... trust their rulers! They suck up to them. They think the class system is fun.
There is no public belief that power corrupts, or that ordinary people are just as good as anybody with a title or a famous bloodline.
People exchange one despot for another, a king for a commissar, a prince for a policeman. Everywhere in Europe there seems to be a crawling, fawning, backstabbing sycophancy towards wealth, and no will to uphold the rights of the individual.
If people protest, it is never for civil rights or against public corruption. It is always for their union or their pension fund, or against some minority they blame for their woes.
There is indeed something rotten about Europe, something hateful and mean.
You talk about America giving investment to europe, but that is a humbug example of generosity. American industry and banking has made its piece of gold from that investment.
But what America did give to Europe, a real gift, was the rule of law.
America taught Europe that a poor person is just a rich person without money, and that a judge is a public servant and not gun for hire.
It is a desperate pity, to my mind, that it has taken the establishment of military bases and the threat of soviet depredations to keep these gifts enhancing the European way of life.
I fear you are right. Europe does seem to be descending into impoverishment and hate, and may soon be at each others throats once more.
The way I regularly hear educated French and German people speak about the Roma .... I have never heard educated americans speak that way about other human beings. Never. the swiss don't speak that way either.
i think there is a lot to be said for a belief in democratic philosophy, even if you don't have it. the idea of it sustains a certain goodwill and philanthropy in civic affairs.
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How is a "Westerner" opinion on Katyn' formed?
First - Goebbels ran a huge PR campaign on Katyn'.
Whole Europe was in Goebbels' Katyn' posters.
It's a picture - two beastly-animal looking "Red Armians", with huge I would say aubergine colour and size andvoraciously bended down noses,
are pushing to the dugout below a Polish patriot in military uniform. One more patriot lies below in the hole all in blood; in the back view - shadows of same two at one each, pushing them down into the hole.
The dugout is full of pieces of bodies and blood in all directions.
A big red sign on the left hand top of the poster - like a brush, dipped into a bucket with blood, I presume must symbolise - in English -
"Katyn".
Goebbels propagands, OK, we understand him, he had a reason to tune European masses against fighting USSR.
The next thing - is Polish campaign worldwide, because the amount of the monuments to Katyn in the world is, how to say, is counted in hundreds literally.
Big monuments; some stone, some bronze, very impressive. The message is the same as Goebbels - usually a big "Ivan" with a pistol, pointed at a head of a Polish patriot.
In Poland itself Katyn monuments are in every village.
Of interest is not the monuments as such but the inscriptions accompanying them.
Warsaw:
"To the memory of officers of Polish Army tortured by Soviet Communistic Totalitarianism in the Empire of Evil".
Simple and elegant. Empire of Evil - all Poles know which one it is, and in case they forget - here is the monument No one hundred.
Poznan:
"Katyn. They took away their lives - in order to kill whole Poland!"
etc.
Normally, Polish officers in uniforms sad long figures, with hands tied in front, about to die, sculptures. Or sad grieving women, bending over dead Polish officers, lying at their feet.
But Poland, how to say, it is Poland.
Of much more interest is the spread of the monuments in America.
Canada, Toronto.
"Katyn memorial in remembrance of fifteen thousands of Polish prisoners of war who vanished in 1940 from the camps in USSR at Kozelsk, Ostashkov, Starobelsk of these over four thousand were later discovered in mass graves in Katyn near Smolensk murdered by the Soviet State Security Police
Erected September 1980
USA, Baltimore "Flame of Freedom"
By the look - lots of people hanging on the huge golden flame, on the sides. Big high monument, un-understandable.
Below are given explanations, on a kind of a plaque with drawings, built into the stone. Texts and pictures.
"The national Katyn memorial
Fire has been used artistically to symbolize a rebirth of transformation.
(?) In case some Americans still didn't get the angle, it is explained:
In this monument a symbolic fire envelops the Katyn martyrs in its flames and raises them spiritually into the pantheon of national heroes of Poland
(?) (Not every American will figure it out at this point either, so the enlightment process continues with drawings of "Russian Ivan with TT", sketches of Polish military with wings behind them, symbolically going up into heaven, it seems to me, and photos of these officers in uniform when still at home. Many interesting details explained, built into the stone, pages with the drawings built into the stone literally:
"The Katyn massacre 1940 - victims of Stalinist terror - 20,000 Polish military officers murdered by the Soviet Secret Police (NKVD)"
Chicago.
Looks like something with wings and cross and a woman weeping over a dead man on her hands.
Pennsylvannia.
A Polish medieval knight with the 3 metre sword banged into the ground, he is kneeling on one knee, as if being ? converted? into knighthood, and huge wings are raised up from his shoulders behind him.
Angelic wings and crosses are usual with officers in these monuments, as I said - Polish idea of martyrdom is very strong.
But the best monument, IMHO - is in New York. Honestly. One who saw it once - will never forget. (Mavrelius I pity you in the even you did. Many a shiver and a sleepless night after no doubt).
It is very expressive. It is a man, arching backwards, on a high pedestal, with some typical shiny glossy US sky-scrapers behind him, as a back-ground.
The man is thin and slim. No wings this time, but the other Polish detail - don't know the name, Polish boots are always supplied with those? metal? sharp? things, ? like for riders, horse riders, that riders use to ?prick? a horse.
That's old attire, but characteristic of the Polish medieval elite - "shlyachta" - so many Katyn monuments, even that unoforms are times 2ndWW - are supplied, the boots, with these big metal ? don't now how to call it.
It means - Poland.
Anyway, in the New York monument the man is all bended behind, in torture, head tinted back, breast in uniform open - and a rifle is pierced - through his back - going out - in front of the breast!
He is, like, pierced through, hangs on a rifle! Bayonet?
Scary indeed. '
On the pedestal, typical American, I would say, inscription.
Katyn, 1940, Siberia.
I think Siberia is added, because not every American will figure out when to get scared and exactly about what.
"Siberia" puts things into understandable format.
Explained, one would think, previously.
_______________________
With all these developments worldwide Russians are, needless to say, perplexed.
In our simple understanding - such a large effort does not look like grieving over one's dead. Grieving - it's something more, how to say, well, in our imperfect understanding - more private and less advertised.
Tastes difer, of course, may be it's a new fashion - all countries will soon start installing monuments in their lands devoted to people of other countries killed in third countries, from sympathy and understanding.
We also wonder somewhat why Poland focused on Katyn, what's exactly the point, as the same Poland lost many more people, in many more "events", during the same very period, if they got focused on this time of their history - of which no one ever heard of.
Operation Tannenberg, the cream of Polish intelligencia, for example, - 20,000 in one go.
Polish wiki itself devotes to Tannenberg far more attention than to Katyn, however Katyn was definitely chosen for monuments' export - while Tannenberg didn't get such attention.
Or, say, Wolyn massacre, simply, - 80,000 in a number of days -
but 4,200 officers in Katyn were found more worthy of int'l attention and martydom status.
A Russian gets a kind of an, un-easy feeling, seeing the Goebbels propaganda live and on-going into the 21st century, but then, like, what to do.
What to think about it all ? Hell knows what to think.
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Alice, if you think the weird Russian hating is out of control now, just wait until Europe is broke and starving and rioting and murdering minorities in order to shift the blame for its own corrupt regimes onto everyone else once more!
I feel Russia will be face to face with massive human rights violations in the baltic states before long, and will need to make hard choices about whether or not to protect its former citizens.
Oh well. It won't be the first time. Maybe Russia will have the good sense to stay out this time!
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"Your Scottish grandfather would be ashamed of you - the first thing.
That generation people have far clearer view of the war than you are."
My grandfather died when I was in my mid-twenties. He told me more than once how he hated the fact that Britain double-crossed Poland and sold it down the river to the Russian hordes. He often spoke of Katyn and how wished the British and Americans had made faster progress after landing on Normandy, to save the Polish people from the Russians, after they had suffered under the Germans. But no, the Polish were in for a double-whammy.
Your denial of Red Army crimes against Polish women and children was to be expected. Once again, I am going to let the facts speak truth to lies:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_crimes#1939.E2.80.9341
One more thing. Your byzantine ways of trying to deny the crime of Katyn are morally on the same level as denials of German warmcrimes. Naturally, I am not in the mood to take seriously arrogant claims that my grandfather would have been ashamed of what I am saying from someone who so unabashedly peddles neo-Stalinist propaganda. You clearly do not understand the concept of shame.
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#136
" But what America did give to Europe, a real gift, was the rule of law.
America taught Europe that a poor person is just a rich person without money, and that a judge is a public servant and not gun for hire
Now that truly is hilarious, nothing more needs to be said. Your posts join Marcus1 and the new Marcus2 in the gutter of hyperbole, soundbite and cheap throw away, meaningless one-liners. You'll be quoting George Washington or writing "EU SUCKS" or "GO USA!" next.
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Quietoaktree
Re #128
"...flag wavers like yourself (me).."
Please refer to the specific contributions by me where I have at any time 'flag-waved' in the manner You imply?
Nothing I have written justifies such a comment by You.
The History of the UK is one of political-social-economic-judicial evolution over many centuries with positive and negative points along the way - - as is the History of every Nation - - You are attempting to interpret my words/views in a manner simply unjustified within their context.
Of course, former British leaders, officers etc. could in the present day be on criminal charges for all sorts of things done in the past - - no doubt (as with Iraq etc.) mistakes are going on at this juncture - - none of that makes one iota of difference to the actual reality.
Within each era People act according to the lights of the day (there are always 'reformers' & 'philanthropists' - - People whom later generations deem as enlightened, e.g. William Wilberforce, Annie Besant etc.). Doubtless some of Your and My everyday behaviours and attitudes taken as normal today will attract critical responses in hindsight by future generations. How much more will those in responsible 'leadership' be judged for their actions!
E.g. Consider the 'termination of pregnancy' or 'nuclear power' issues: Both flashpoints of divisive views - - which side will hindsight History come down on - - all Humans for good or ill act according to that mysterious 'conscience' of choice and some seek guidance from supposed Holy Books etc. Will those 'human' or 'divine' choices carry the same weight in hindsight?
That really is a simple construct which seems to elude Your scope for consideration at present: It is one of the methods used by Historians, Anthropologists & even Philosophers for how the evolution of Humans is presumed to be measured.
Your 'flag-waving' allegation leaves me unsure You have any idea what my comments are about.
For Your information I live in Finland, am married to a Finn (my children have joint nationality - - 1 lives in London & 1 in Sydney), my parents were English-Belge and 2 of my grandparents Dutch-German.
There is no way on this Human earth that I could 'flag wave' for any Nation.
What I will not let pass without comment is the intellectual effort to restore Germany's WW2 record by re-writing of History through hindsight, similarly the denigration and dissembling nit-picking by hindsight of everything done by the USSR, USA, GB & Commonwealth forces in WW2.
On the actual modern issue to which Mr Hewitt's articles refer - - I will oppose the EUropean Union and most especially England's membership of it on the grounds that with & without hindsight the EU is a dangerously anti-Democratic institution founded on principles of venal support for 'big-Government/big-Business' at immense cost to the ordinary Citizens' Rights & Responsibilities as formerly established at National level.
Again, it is not 'flag-waving' to insist that there is a better alternative to the EU entity currently set-up in Brussels: On the contrary, that is Democracy in action - - I voice my opinions/perspective - - You are fully entitled to present yours and I try to give them due respect.
It would be easy to label You & Your views, but it would be unfair to do so as I do not know You. You present arguments for debate which deserve consideration though my perspectives find them unacceptable and I reply accordingly.
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@106 Mathiasen
Thanks for the comment.
Your wording,"Isolationism and isolated solutions have no chance, and this afternoon the media are reporting that a solution is close to be there" needs maybe some additional precision. It's obvious that all member states of the euro zone are involved more or less in the rescue plan building, /just as the IMF is, by lending, say, a third of the loan/.
However, apart from those countries, there are the UK (whith its huge economy, its important contribution to the IMF funds, etc.) and the newly admitted countries that are still queuing up at the entrance of the euro zone. To that matter, Gordon Brown declared last month that the problem is to find its solution within the euro zone. How shall we assess those evident facts? As a good example of isolationsism(!?).
(Otherwise, I agree with your vision that the common danger needs a common solution. The EU is already a political entity, not just an economic union).
Sofia, April 30th 2010
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Chris Camp
Re 3120
You know I have not ignored anything in our last or this little 'chat' re Poland in August-September 1939.
I'm afraid your reference does nothing of the kind that You claim for it!
There was not any Nazi-Soviet military pact for an invasion of Poland - - there was an agreement on 'spheres of influence' - - the likelihood 1 or the other would act upon these secret protocols and invade the various allotted Nations is beside the point. That was never in the written agreement.
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@democracythreat#136
"But what America did give to Europe, a real gift, was the rule of law. "
I simply quote:
"Although the concept of Europeans as law-governed peoples originated in Greece it was the Romans who elevated the law to the place it still holds today—as the sole guarantor of the continuity of `civilization`…”, and “as the single most unifying feature of the continent."
from: Pagden, Antony. 2002. “Europe: Conceptualising a Continent” in: Pagden, Anthony ed. The Idea of Europe: From Antiquity to the European Union. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.42-43.
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Commonexpressway
Re #123
Apologies, my pedanticness is getting the better of me this week.
Clartification please: Basically I'm trying to enlist support for the idea 'hindsight' is a wonderful thing, but an inaccurate assessment means for History!?
Well, if You "..agree 100%.." then surely it is with the general gist of my #100, #117 & #121 yesterday and my #141 today.
Whereas, Chris Camp contribution #107 & #120, Quietoaktree for all posts, plus Margaret Howard at #109 indirectly infer a moral equivalence/ambivalence in the actions of the UK, USA, USSR with Nazi Germany circa 1939 to 1945 in Europe.
No need to reply if I'm just making your eyes tired!
Cheers.
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mvr512 wrote: "Argentina defaulted a few years ago and is now far better off because of it, don't let banker propaganda scare you into believing it would be different for Greece."
If you were here, you would know that we are where the Greeks will be in a year or so. Inflation is 28.8% and rising, wages below those of greece - a physician, lawyer, licensed engineer makes around 50,000 AR$ or US$ 13,000 a year.
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@ cool_brush_work
What you are saying is flat-out false. TheI find it lamentable that you ignore what is general knowledge to most and can be easily verified. The destruction of Poland was a Russian-German joint-venture.
from the wikipedia article:
"Most notably, there was also a secret protocol to the pact, revealed only after Germany's defeat in 1945, according to which the states of Northern and Eastern Europe were divided into German and Soviet "spheres of influence".[74] In the North, Finland, Estonia and Latvia were assigned to the Soviet sphere.[74] Poland was to be partitioned in the event of its "political rearrangement"—the areas east of the Pisa, Narev, Vistula and San rivers going to the Soviet Union while Germany would occupy the west."
and...
"According to the secret protocol, Lithuania would be granted the ethnic Polish city of Wilno, which was a part of Poland during the inter-war period. Another clause of the treaty was that Germany would not interfere with the Soviet Union's actions towards Bessarabia, then part of Romania; as the result, Bessarabia was joined to the Moldovan ASSR, and become the Moldovan SSR under control of Moscow."
You cannot argue with the facts. Both Germany and Russia planned to invade several East European countries, most notably Poland, and they did.
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About the German-Russian invasion of Poland:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland_(1939)
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#145
CBW - yes hindsight is a wonderful thing. Bias, prejudice, national pride and bigotry skews peoples opinions of events that they didnt see, werent part of and happened long before they were born. This applies to me too.
The former countries under Nazi occupation want NOTHING to do with the Germany from that era. The former countries under the Soviet yoke want NOTHING to do with Stalinist Russia, or even modern Russia for that matter. However, there is a Commonwealth, in which 54 countries VOLUNTARILY associate themselves with nasty old Britain, 16 of which still have the British monarch as head of state. That is the legacy of our imperial past, what is Hitler's or Stalin's legacy?
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dt;
American corporations made a bundle out of Europe because the US government deliberately changed US tax laws giving them a profit incentive to invest there. That incentive which allows them to defer tax to the US Federal government on profits from overseas investments was part of that incentive. Most favored nation status which allowed them to export back to the US with very low import taxes while the target countries could keep high import taxes on American made products to protect their domestic markets was part of the mechanism by which America rebuilt Europe after WWII. The Marshall plan was not intended and could not rebuild Europe it was strictly a huge humanitarian effort to keep it from freezing and starving to death. Only American private industry had sufficient power to do rebuild it just as it has built modern China. After the war the US government could not simply "give" countries like the UK money legally so it loaned the UK huge sums at the rediculously low rate of 2% with 60 year payback (Try getting a mortgage to buy a home for that kind of rate and see what happens) because it didn't know how long it would be before the UK was back on its feet again and able to pay it back. The UK finally paid off that loan just a few years ago with money that was all but worthless due to inflation. And they made a big deal about how they paid it all. Talk about hubris.
BTW, you are right. As I've said over and over again, Europe has no democracies (I don't know about Switzerland) and that includes all of it including the UK. They don't even know what real democracy is. Among the UK's many disqualifiers as a democracy, the entire government at any one time is run by one political party with no checks and balances, no separation of powers between the legislative and executive branches. Nothing from the "loyal opposition" except mewling, it cannot have any political power at all. There is no public debate in Britain, the whole thing on TV was a sham. There also is no transparency either. Britain's economy is reportedly a catastrophe, the real numbers being kept a well hidden secret from the public, the consequences after the election no matter who wins nothing short of dire one way or another.
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"Whereas, Chris Camp contribution #107 & #120 [...] infer a moral equivalence/ambivalence in the actions of the UK, USA, USSR with Nazi Germany circa 1939 to 1945 in Europe."
cool_brush_work, please do your utmost to be honest in debates like these. All I did was provide proof for the fact that the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany both attacked Poland. You were obviously uncomfortable with this, as it did not sit well with your simplistic interpretation of history.
I also characterised France, the UK and the USA as "non-aggressing nations".
I would appreciate it if you avoided deliberately posting misleading statements about other people's opinions in the future.
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@97 Vassilis
I feel the same way friend; one should make difference between corrupt politicians/government officials and the ordinary people (teachers, dockers, sailors, farmers, physicians, employees, workers, designers, etc.).
/I go shopping to Thessaloniki once a month and I happen often to get jammed by striking farmers with all their ‘armoured’ vehicles, banners, etc., a fact which does not prevent me to have sincere sympathy for our orthodox neighbours and to enjoy the pleasure, preferably by the seaside, of eating lavrakhi with green salad, dressed with lemon juice, and aroused with white wine....under the lovely rhythm of the cirthakki...ha-ha-ha...
To that matter, I would strongly recommend to all fellow bloggers from Germany /who maybe will remember that we were twice Kriegkameraden (germ.comrades in arms)/ to follow the example of the first drunker of this blog and to stop accusing all Greeks of the presumed worst fiscal crime of old Europe, our lovely homeland... Cheers kameraden! Vassilis, let's dance cirthakki, boy....
P.S. Being orthodox socialist, may I send my warmth greetings, ON THE OCCASION OF MAYDAY, to all fellow bloggers here who sympathise with the working people. I wish also success to Gordon Brown on May 6th! The socialist idea is immortal /at least in Europe/!
Sofia, April 30th 2010
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#150
Since when has the US ever been considered a true democracy? Your founding fathers were scared of the very concept, hence why the word wasnt included in the Constitution. You are a Republic , controlled by a political elite who make decisions on your behalf. Look up the definition and core components of what makes a democracy and you'll see the US isnt one. When is your referendum on healthcare reform by the way?
As far as all the other stuff is concerned, there is so much wrong with what you are writing I cant even begin to be bothered to challenge it. Except for one thing..the British didnt make a "big deal" about paying the loan off, they thanked the US and Canada for the support. Stop making stuff up.
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Somehow I can't stop picturing Nik with a tinfoil hat
All this war scenarios with Turkey, and trying to justify their laziness with their military expenditures against "what if Turks and Albanomuslims attack"
You invaded Anatolia, you did ethnic cleansing in cyprus, both times you got kicked back. And you keep crying to the world that you're the victim.
Your country's sinking now, and will hit the bottom soon dragging along the ones who help save your economy. Eventually they will recover, but you won't. You are too arogant to admit you're lazy. Maybe you can sell the copyright of the word "europa" and make some bucks, and spare us the bravery tales that you once saved europa from invading persian hordes in the time before time.
And yes, I admit we Turks did genocides and pogroms or whatever, treat kurds badly, illegally occupy cyprus, are mongoloid and islamofascimilitant (hah how's that!?), lazy, inferior, stupid. I finally admit. Does that stop your country from complete bankruptcy? No? Oh well, c'est la vie.
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commonsense_expressway wrote:
"#150
Since when has the US ever been considered a true democracy?"
Since you ask, I am inclined to agree with professor Chris Fritz from the university of Arizona. he's a legal historian.
He has written a book called "American Sovereigns" which is about the early American political state and the way the country was governed after the revolution.
Now he tells me that his second book is going to be about the way US democracy declined post civil war.
He broader thesis, linking the two books, is that the civil war essentially killed off real democracy in the USA, and began the slow creep towards total corporate control of government.
So to answer your question, I would say that the USA ought to be considered a true democracy from the period of the revolution until the civil war. But that is not my own thinking, as I know very little of american history. I defer to others who have read and written a huge amount on the subject, and offer you their views for consideration.
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Chris Camp wrote:
"About the German-Russian invasion of Poland:"
Yes yes. We know all that.
But talk to me about the partition of Czechoslovakia in 1938, chris.
Is it not true that Germany and Poland divided the Czechoslovakian land up between themselves, invading and using military force to enlarge their states?
And is it not also true that between the wars the Polish invaded Lithuania and ethnically cleansed Vilnius, amongst huge area of the baltic, forcing the people to speak polish and annexing the territory to the Polish state?
With respect, chris, you have the predictable and dull worldview of a slow child. You don;t know enough to know how little you know, and your incessant glorification of nations as though they were good guys wearing white hats and bad guys wearing black hats is stupefyingly boring.
You seem intent on offending the national pride of other peoples, most likely because you thrill to the emotional reward of associating your own character with the fantastic glory of your own state.
But please, if you must thrill to emotions you seek, do not feel you need to do it by pretending to be informed or educated. You can obtain the thrills you desire by grunting, jumping on the spot and hooting, clutching at yourself with one hand whilst pointing fiercely at your flag with the other.
You'll achieve precisely the same level of emotional gratification, and you wont carry the repulsive hypocritical stench of the ignorant pedant around with you.
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Chris Camp
Re #147
I will argue: Especially as You are categorically incapable of even presenting a Quote in evidence for Your allegation of a joint 'military' take-over of 'eastern Europe' by the Nazis & Soviet regimes.
Read Your own quote again: Then please refer to any of a huge variety of sources from the man-on-the-spot W.Shirer's 'The Rise & Fall of the Third Reich', to venerable AJP.Taylor's 'The Origins of the Second World War', and comprehensive A.Bullock's 'Hitler & Stalin - Parallel Lives' through to I.Kershaw's immense tomes 'Hubris' & 'Nemesis' or, if You prefer, the more modernistic approach in Anthony Beevor's & Niall Ferguson's renowned Histories.
I don't know if You are able to read other languages, but there are copious volumes that utterly refute Your assertion; although to be honest, if You can write those 2 quotes and claim them as bona fide evidence when they do not say anything about 'military' conquest by Nazi Germany or the USSR I'm afraid we are not reading the same text or context for anything.
Nothing in those quotes supports the hindsight view of what later occurred: Neither Hitler nor Stalin was giving a green light for an invasion on a specific date or even at any particular period in which they would act in unison. 'Spheres of influence' and 'Partition' after 'rearrangement' does not signify joint Military-manoeuvres.
You can continue to dress up Nazi Germany's actions any way You see fit, but I will continue to maintain the Red Armed Forces ended up all over East Europe precisely because of the Fascist aggression. Not as a result of joint plans for conquest.
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commonsense-expressway
Re #149
Agreed: It is one of the brilliant and taxing oddities of Historical analysis that there is no definitive conclusion.
Obviously in hindsight 'Empire' was not morally right or ethically justifiable, and yet there are formidable examples of 'imperial' powers doing good as well as bad & I am not just referring to the British version.
It is evident that neither a Nazi nor a Soviet regime was a political or philosophical success among their conquered/liberated masses of Humanity.
I would venture to suggest the UK, France, USA models of a 'Democratic' approach to inhabitants over centuries is really stretching the 'positive' effects claim, however, there is little room for doubt it would seem to be preferable to all the alternatives (as I think Churchill once said, though a 'democrat' of the old 'imperial' pattern).
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DemocThreat
It isn't kind, you know!
Pointing out, he who lives by the partition can also get stymied by it!
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"You seem intent on offending the national pride of other peoples, most likely because you thrill to the emotional reward of associating your own character with the fantastic glory of your own state."
"The glory of my own state"? Which one is that? I am British, and have never been anything but British. I do not glorify Britain. You will never find anyone who views British politics, present or past, more critically than I do.
About your silly "slow child" and "white hat and black hat" jibe I think seeing as you are one of those who never seem to get tired of obsessing about and demonising the European Union, I would not have expected you of all people to come forward with that kind of a statement. The one who sits in a house of glass...
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"Nothing in those quotes supports the hindsight view of what later occurred: Neither Hitler nor Stalin was giving a green light for an invasion on a specific date or even at any particular period in which they would act in unison."
Yes they do - "Poland was to be partitioned in the event of its "political rearrangement"—the areas east of the Pisa, Narev, Vistula and San rivers going to the Soviet Union while Germany would occupy the west." - "in the event", i.e. in the event of the two countries invading Poland, which they did simultaneously.
I am familiar with Niall Fergusson's work and with Ian Kershaw's "The Nazi Dictatorship". Both works support my view of the German-Russian aggression against Poland and they completely refute your own reworking of history. Your strategy is very predictable if I may say so. You toss about a few renouned historians' names and hope this will impress people. Well unfortunately, I am familiar with the works of the some of the historians you mentioned. I do not know which "foreign languages" you are referring to. I am passably fluent in English, French, German and Turkish - which historical books in those languages would you recommend oh-mighty-all-knowing-one?
Both of you, I mean democracy threat and you, cool_brush_work, have this problem with people who do not share you simplistic black and wide view of history and the present. I tend to see things in shades of gray, possibly because I have read about history and European societies in slightly much more detail than you have. Your chlidish good-vs.-evil world is the root cause of your obsession with the E.U., too. You seem to be utterly unable to see things in a reasoned, differentiated way. Things are either totally evil or consumately good. I find this view of the world rather immature.
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#155
Interesting points DT, cheers.
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Chris Camp
Re #161
This isn't even semantics!
".. in the event.." is neither a date, an assignation nor even a temporary timetable. It is an expression without defined calendar or any other creditable assurance of a time-scale!
regrettably, I must inform Yiu there is absolutely no suppoirt for Your view of the Russo-German Non-Aggression Pact in either Ferguson or Kershaw's works.
What there is, is conjecture as to what lay behind the actual wording - - pretty much as You, I and any person looking at History will do - - it is not fact, it is not accurate... it is conjecture!
Where has this sudden 'high and almighty one' unkind critique come from?
Are You annoyed You have no quote to back-up Your version of Germany-USSR relations in August 1939?
Calm down Chris, mate! I referred to a number of 'english language' Historical texts: I was enquiring if You had knowledge of similar works in foreign languages that did back-up Your view? If so, I would be interested to know of them.
Where does this 'simplistic' view allegation come from?
I cannot believe You can have read my contributions and consider I have a "..black & white.." version of History!?
It is extraordinary that You could make such a statement in view of all that I have written in this topic!
As for democThreat: Well, doubtless he will speak for himself, but it is astounding You would lay that accusation at his door - - anyone famioliar with DemocThreat's Comments will know that is an utterly erroneous judgement!
No, what I fear is happening here is that as Your points get refuted time and again so You are losing the thread of sound, logical perspective & unfortunately starting to lash out when I have not done so with your goodself.
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Chris Camp
I went back to the reference You gave earlier.
I thought maybe my mind was playing tricks but no it was there in 'black & white': Nazi Germany invaded Poland on September 1st... USSR invaded east Poland on Septemeber 17th 1939.
Now, I'm willing to allow leeway as History is always inexact but Your view in #161 (& previous contributions) that "..two countries (Germany & USSR) invading Poland, which they did simultaneously.." does seem to well wide of the actuality and reality - - by my reckoning - - some 16 days apart, which is a very odd 'simultaneous' event!
Of course, it just backs-up my previous comments on another Blog debate with You that folowing the Non-Aggression Pact of August 24th 1939 Stalin was totally surprised by Hitler's swift invasion and unannounced invasion of Poland - - an invasion that broke the terms of the Pact between Germany & the USSR - - a German invasion that precipitated all the conflict in eastern Europe over the next 6 years & created the backdrop for the Cold War that followed.
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It was simultaneous inasmuch as they coordinated their attack and met in the middle to shake hand. It was planned by both sides, as described in the Ribbentrop-Molotov-Pact. I would refer you again to the wikipedia article.
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Just on general principle -
I have been taking part in these kinds of discussions for over 10 years. I have seen the kind of evasive techniques that you and dt employ time and time again.
- name dropping (saying the two words "Ian Kershaw" does not lend extra credibilitiy to your "arguments".
- ignoring what other people said/quoted
- using denial on principle/using sophistry (a German/Russian plan to "partition" Poland is not a planned aggression against Poland because of a missing "Green Light"[whatever that is supposed to be] given by either side)
In other words: please do not bore me. Attack my points as visciously as you can, demolish everything I have learnt and thought I knew, but by all means, do not bore me. Your techniques are old. They are weak sauce. There's not even a hint of salt in there. So please, could you come up with something other than denial-on-principle and random name dropping? That would be nice.
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Chris Camp
Re #161
Oh dear, throwing baby bottle out & dummy too!
Chris there is nothing more to add to the many points I have made: Your quotes do not back Your view, the Historians do not support Your contention & sadly Your inability to conduct a debate without rancour is at cost to You & Your views.
'10 years'! 'Name dropping'! Goodness me, which part of the 'green light' don't You get after all that intense reading of History that You have done & have the conceit to presume sets You apart?
Tiresome, isn't it? Not being able to lecture without some fellow having the effrontery to take issue with You!
Just one more time, for the sake of clarity: There was no clause, sub-section, wording or even a sentence in the Secret Protocols attached to the Ribbentropp-Molotov Pact of August 24th 1939 that referred in any way to a joint-military strategy for the invasion & occupation of Poland.
And for good measure neither was there any mention in the Protocols of a Timetable for when that 'partition' 'arrangement' for the 'spheres of influence' was to come into effect.
Finally, I note that the resort to "..weak sauce.." comes as You find that from Your own deep, intimate knowledge of the subject You managed to refer to a Source that revealed Nazi Germany did indeed invade Poland some 2 weeks ahead of the USSR!
Nothing random about dropping in the incontrovertible fact to acquaint You with Historical reality especially as You provided it!
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democracythreat "Alice welcome back; don't waste your time but don't be a stranger"
- Just a couple of minutes. :o)))))))
_____________________________________________
"Red Army crimes" bla bla bla
- A teeny-weeny better. Just 20 posts ago it was "The Russian Agressors who..." :o)))))))))))) and "Crimes of Russians on the way to Berlin against Polish, Ukrainians and Belorussians"
After I pointed out the existence of the Ukrainian Front and the Belorussian Front (two armies) - supposedly - busy with "crimes against" own Ukrainians and Belorussians :o))))) -
Chris Camp made it a modest "Red Army" instead.
But given the :o)))), you know :o))))) - I don't actually think it's a self-Chrisso-correction.
Max, a slip of the tongue :o)))))))))
Glorious Ukrainian and Belorussian Fronts - I take the effort to mark it again.
____________________________
"Katyn denial" bla bla bla
- There is no need to deny what isn't established as fact.
No need to take it on oneself either.
I am not Gorbachyov. Don't have to oust the Communist party out of the parliament majority.
I am not Putin (who, btw :o))), experiences the same on-going problem :o)))). Communist party still constitutes 30% of the Duma).
Once again - I am not Putin. I do not need any thing from Poland.
Moreover, I don't need anything from Germany.
(the irony of history; that Germany and Poland are now Russia's .
anyway
That my country tops see their interests - or the country's interests (when these co-inside, by mistake :o))))) - as accepting Katyn' -
excuse me. These interests come and go, and I am Russian.
Though, one can sell Katyn abroad.
The concept is for sale and re-sale for a long time.
It is slightly more difficult to sell it to Russians. I'd need something better, than Goebbels' honest word, Gorbachyov's honest word, Putin's phrase squeezed through the teeth as a huge favour.
The documents - looong due to have a look. A good, expert, profi look.
We understand - it is difficult to falsify papers of that time.
Gorbi was in a hurry - made up heaps of mistakes.
But the next admin - it had all the time in the world.
So why not to have a glance. Can one go with them to law. For example.
Will they stay an authentity test - when presented to home experts.
Looooots of interested parties - dying to have a look, for a long time.
That's not serious - copies and copies, especially scribbled with mistakes. I suppose their publication done in the past - does present a certain problem :o)))))))), but we should be all optimistic, how to say :o)))), and all.
_________________________________
"Once again, I am going to let the facts speak truth to lies"
- Sure. I am not interested to read, and don't recommend others - but for the wiki-graduates
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_murders_in_Pia%C5%9Bnica
______________________________
"You clearly do not understand the concept of shame."
"Therefor, as somebody who has a firm belief in Briish ethics and values, I
oj oj oj.
How is, everything, - aggravated.
As doctors say.
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"One half Milord, one half in trade"
Alexandre Pushkin on stage, please. 1824
One half Milord
One half in trade
One half wise man
Half ignoramus
One half a scoundrel - but here's hope
That, after all, he'll make the grade.
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We've seen an example recently.
Echo of Moscow journalist, in direct broadcast, said:
"For crying out loud, the man was signing death penalties - for 12-year old children!
Now, who is here that scoundrel who will dare to say a word in this monster protection?!"
So far so good.
In 2 weeks Echo got a law case against them. Stalin's grandson.
"as was said.... bla bla bla..... Prove it."
Echo sent a query to the state archives - death penalties, in criminal law, in any law, for Gulags', prizons, detainment - requesting copies.
Got ten tons, on the meetings of of all top quarters, various committees, what not, protocols of meetings held (minutes), hand scribbles of Stalin over them, country's laws issued during the rule -
that indeed, a law was taken, that in "exceptional circumstances of murder cases - the age for death penalty is decreased to 12."
Echo lawyers said in court room that nothing in the country was possible without Stalin's consent, one way or another - he was the leader - the journalist was right. There was such a law, even with "but first report from any region court to Moscow criminal court for approval" but this is not important - there was such a law, and it was taken surely with Stalin's consent.
The grandson lawyers presented to court lists of people sentenced to death penalty in accordance to that law during it existence time - and said - show us here any 12 year old, 13 year old, 14 year old, 15 year old.
Echo lawyers took time out requested papers from more archives.
Nil.
The Echo did an excellent move :o))))) - they questioned the authentity of Stalin's grandson! Like, according to the ... article this and that.... only a relative can go to law in the cases of ? assault? etc.
And this chap - who is he? Presenting himself as relative - but how do we now - his first passport was issued in his mother's name, he took the surname only later on,. by changing the passport -
we demand a genetic test - to prove his authentity!
In short, Echo ased the court to excavate Stalin and research him a little bit :o))))))))) As a matter of urgency :o)))), and all.
At which point the case is staying now - we all expect judge's decision - and no one is jealous with the judges' position.
Echo duly puts up on site every bit of paperwork from those court sessions - lots of archive docs, for all to see.
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"I am passably fluent in English, French, German and Turkish - which historical books in those languages would you recommend oh-mighty-all-knowing-one?"
cool_brush, :o) And I do not recommend you :o))), to recommend "books", to Chris Camp. I did a mistake once, in the previous clash with CC thread. Kriegs- something Diary, of the German commander of land forces, who controlled Germany's invasion into Poland. Day by day, day by day - gave the Publishing house, year, all there is.
:o(
Chris doesn't want to read.
They are not in wiki format, must be that's why.
Or it's I, who made a mistake. Pointed out dates of interest, from the dairy, so that he wouldn't stress himself much. Where he wrote down content of comms', with the Red Army, what has been radiogrammed, where, the answers that they got :o( :o))))))), the absolute nesessity :o)))) that he points out throughout - of keeping a far margin to russky-s
- 50 km distance:o)))) - the "recommended safe space, absolutely insists it is kept, by the troops. Like, don't even think, of coming nearer :o))))
One gets a clear idea - for example - as CC cared to mention it above -that "hand-shakes" :o))))) - were rather problematic
By his diary - Germans were retreating a lot. And always cared to keep 25 km distance - initially - later increased to 50 km.
The mind-boggling difficulties he had - balancing btw his HQ directives and fact on the ground - how the areas of Poland were changing hands.
When he entered, he most disappointingly found out that Western Ukraine is a no-no - AND HE THOUGHT THE EAST OF POLAND - IS GERMANY.
Why no one cared to explain him the Molotov-Ribbentrop? Beyond understanding.
The man acted, like, blind! One plain gets scared for his life - reading his diary.
If one cares to read, of course. There is the time, the nerve. But as his memoirs contradict wiki - I don't think the book will be advertised much as an interesting read.
It is not translated even into Russian - and I don't think in English either. It is boring, detailed book, full of things un-interesting to anyone.
CC mentioned he is doesn't like boring things.
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I'll make you a deal Web Alice, I'll try to persuade President Obama to pull out of NATO and withdraw all American troops and equipment from Europe heading West if you promise to persuade Tsar Putin to invade it from the East as soon as we leave. If you think Russia has troubles now, that's nothing compared to what it would have on its hands if these two or three dozen cackling gaggling geese ever flew into its coop.
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cool_brush_work, we have been over this before. From your sophistry, to Stalin's alleged "surprise" at Hitler's initiation of the war (which proves that you have not read Kershaw's work), there is no need of going over this again and see you fail at every instance again.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/gavinhewitt/2010/04/greece_bankruptcy_hovers.html
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This comment has been referred for further consideration. Explain
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Oooooh look Chris, some dotty soul has referred us both to the Moderators!
Do You suppose it was because:
A) We were marginally off-topic by 71 years
B) We were offending others by our constant jabbering about the past
C) We had inadvertently upset the the space-time-continuum & Dr Who fans were becoming alarmed
D) I was making too much sense to be allowed to continue
E) You were making too much sense to be allowewd to continue
F) All of the above plus boring the pants off everyone else
My guess is 'F'.
Cheers, see You over the Blog page, no doubt!
PS: So the Moderators don't bin this. Greece is a legitimate Nation & deserves to be assisted by whatever means possible and if Greece is not helped then YAH BOOO TO THEM ALL....
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I for ONE do not recommend Wiki online encyclopedia,
Web Alice,
Because...ummmm its good info...encyclopedic, but written by who knows whom????
But, people use it freely, as if they have the original Bible in their hands. hmmmmph....
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Re177: CBW, what Greece has to do with the moderation of your messages on Katyn massacre?
My messages the most moderated where the ones on the 20th century geopolitics of the area.
And why do you think that anyone in Greece asked for help? - apart the US citizen, US born herpes-positive Jeffrey Papandreou?
Greek people have repeatedly said they do not ask for help, they need not help and they refuse this "help". We can borrow money easily in the market withj 3-3,5% so why should we worry borrowing from EU, IMF? You know the market is not just that, there are others too.
So stop this gebbelist repetition of Greeks as-if asking help. None asked help. End of story.
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MA, "two or three dozen cackling gaggling geese" :o)))))))))))))))))))
oj. very, how to say, I confess, the feeling.
Yes.
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Putin doesn't look South and West, though.
Yesterday was observed catching Polar bears, collaring them.
They nearly finished one off :o)))))))))), I would say, a 300-kilo one.
He didn't want to wake up from sleep injection, which caused a turmoil of the vets and scientists, all danced about the fellow, how to say, clapped him on the cheeks :o)))), tossed cold water onto his face :o))))), and put sniffy saults in a perfume glass container under his nose :o))))) Finally the fellow woke up, nearly wooshed the company away with one angry paw, and trotted in the proper Polar Pole direction. Carrying Putin's kisses and embraces and best regards :o))))
I would say, Putin gets properly into correct thought tracks.
It is bad taste, with Russia's tsars, not to get an own compass thought
direction.
Not that everyone had own ideas (luckily :o)))))))
But, like - West - many tsars focused on it, from necessity - the West normally comes here by itself, without invitation :o))
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- thought continued.
South direction - that's Catherine II invention, German idea. The Empress and her advisers.
She turned the heavy, intertia ship of Russia in the direction - South.
Never before a single Russian tsar was interested in the politics in the South, and thought it has any relation to us.
From Catherine II time - she turned the wheel - Russia began looking South.
Well, the East - that's natural - all generations of Russians ran away from their respective rulers, through centuries - Eastwards, natural development direction.
Beyond Urals - there has never been serfdom - I think many don't know it.
Free ramble space.
Well, if to interpret the ad hoc signs, as we are skilled at, the un-pronounced occasional signals - Putin clearly thinks North.
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In case you didn't note :o) - Kirgizstan is for grabs, for 1 month already.
The amount of Russian citizens there - mmmmmm. :o)))))
The amount of Kirgiz with double citizenship in Russia - ? 2-3 million, I think.
In short, an excellent vacant dis-oriented country, compact, with 5 mln population total - that could be a nice boost and addition to our Federation failing population size.
Nobody takes it.
Putin prefers to chip polar bears instead.
By the way - careful with those bears. They are Russian subjects now.
If a hair falls off .... :o))))))))))
- I don't think it's a clever idea to, say, disappoint one.
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WA, do not fool yourself. North is for ressources, east is for ressources and sell ressources, west is for selling ressources. South is for world domination. The fate of Russia is the south. You will not be able to disengage from it. Doing nothing about the south means the geopolitical end of Russia.
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Nik
Re #179
Think You are getting a trifle confused, mate.
Most of my exchange with Chris Camp, Quietoaktree & M Howard concerned outbreak of WW2 and/or the the rights & wrongs of various Nations questionable historical development (not the Katyn Massacre).
My tacking on of the 'Greek' bit to #177 was to keep the Moderators happy & not meant as any attempt to contribute to the Greek debate.
I've done that elsewhere.
Cheers.
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Nik, geopolitical end - in Western understanding of what an end is.
:o))))))))))))))))
I mean, you may be right.
But we couldn't help noticing the innumerous troubles Russia got when comrade Catherine (the very Great), turned the wheel of Russian politics - South.
Her idea - influenced by her mould up and origins - and to a great degree - by the advisers she hired , of Europe - that
grabatising Poland is a good idea (German :o))))))), German medieval knights :o))))))))) principle
Caucasus is important (must be she got a British adviser for that. I strongly suspect British influence in that line of thought).
All Russia got from these 2 clever acquisitions - is Poland, I mean, I will simply describe it as "Poland" :o)))))))))
With its 100 uprisings, constant headache to every single following tsar - till today :o)))))))
In short - Chechnya is pea-nuts, compared to Russian experience with owning Poland :o))))))))))
And - Caucasus. 300 years of war with Caucasus.
Which is simply described here - during these 300 years non-stop - and till today - as "chemodan bez ruch'ki" - "suitcase without a handle".
In the meaning - heavy to carry, pity to drop.
So I don't know. I think it's better when Russia thinks by brains of local Russian tsars. More chance to get some ideas based on something manageable, something for which a nation can be counted to have guts and resources to manage, than foreign-soil ideas, fro which Russians have no natural skill and brains, how to manage.
Don't know. Such strategic choices are always hanging on a thread.
All luck in the world is required not to make a mistake.
May be the gut feeling is no less handy, in such a geopolitical choice, than logic.
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South may be the key to the world.
But we don't want the world.
It's a very, very awkward suit-case :o))))))))
Another thing is, the world is full of idiots, who want the world :o))))))))
So, may be, as a protection measure. A certain degree of involvement.
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Nik, I understand you find it bizarre that someone can be not interested in the South :o)))))
You sit there, in the epicentre of things, and wonder why others don't understand it.
We understand, understand. But Jesus Christ. We'd so much more liked to simply have it, how to say, cold. Cold is good. :o))))))))))))
Peaceful. Attractive. Spacy.
Un-limited horizons, beautiful, white. ah what to say.
How do you survive there in the hot-tempered and over-crowded place. oj.
Only sea fixes it for you, a relief, given the circumstances. Sea is your only way out!
I think I read somewhere, forgot who said, a French, ab 2 hundred years ago, approximately. "France is full as an egg".
200 years ago - already! that's the whole Europe, "full, as an egg".
No space for maneuvre for its (poor :o))) people.
Anyway Nik cheer up. As said Gen. Skobelev , I think? or someone else of our old generals - angry I think with his tsar decisions, sending Russian armies here and there, with no understandable agenda :o)))))) -
Russia is the only country who allows herself luxury to go to war from compassion.
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Nik, I think it's also very good that you live on 2,000 islands.
Even if you don't live on every one, it is very handy to have many.
Freedom we associate with freedom to change places inside your country, move and start all over anew again, in another place, in another capacity.
So, many places, - is good for internal freedom. And also very good in terms of good-willing neighbours around.
Two thousand islands - it is a very strategic approach for disposition.
As they say, if you can't convince them :o)))))))) - confuse them.
Hat off.
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Re185: Thanx for the clarification CBW. Just a little one from my side: "gebbelist propaganda" went on the repetition of the "Greeks asking help and consuming EU and mainly Germans' money", not on you directly. I often disagree with you and might use colorful style but I really look up to your messages, if you feel hurt tell me to change style, from my part I am rarely hurt, albeit quite impatient with peoples' refusal to see te reality as it is revealed from within the events (even if we don't have the same view, some events are self-evident, like for example this crisis being NOT financial even if Greece's economy is much worse than you think even right now).
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WA, you cannot live on most of these 2,000 islands. They are relatively dry rocks. You can go there set up a tent for 1-2 days not more. The sun will be burning you in the summer, the winds will wear you down in winters. However, far from the 30 big ones and other 70 smaller habitated ones, there are about other 200-300 ones that can be exploited. These are mostly state lands (and some might be church's lands too, an inherited habit of the Ottoman times, when the Ottoman-collaborating side of the hierarchy of the church got out as a huge land owner, and that is one question today...), but then what if you go on sell them and Turkey promotes Turkish businessmen giving the higher bid 3 and 4 times more than the normal to buy all the rocks facing Turkey?
You understand that there are lands you cannot just sell. Islands cannot be sold just like that, they are not fields. They are islands. And if you buy such a property there is a constititional amendement that says that beaches are not private properties but property of the state. Hence a foreing investor that will buy an island will not be able to have it all at 100% his, at least in theory. But the inner fields can be his. And rocks opposite to Turkey can be bought and Turks can move businesses and population on them so that at one point they Turkish army will move in too Cyprus-style.
Abslutely not. It will be tragic. Treason. No way. Leave them rocks there being. They are not related to crisis and selling land is not the way to make money but the most certain way to lose money.
Ask Sun Tzu on that.
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Niki, surely I never meant Greece selling an island, a rock even a pebble! Who do you take me for; you have mis-understood me.
What I meant was simply that 2,000 islands is good; imagined, say, a military opponent of yours, a general, sitting at some map, trying to plan an action :o)))))))))))) By the time he even reads the list of the 2,000 out loud - he'd have to start anew! To run a campaign - all will be confused where other units are (lost) :o)))))
I meant in practical terms, strategically, for defense, a variety, and q-ty - is good. And given various sputnik triangulation eh , distortions - anyone hungry for you will land down at sea :o)))))) - 100% - or 3 units - on the same very island.
The only better thing to do, from the defence point of view, I think would be in case of danger, and temporarily - urgently re-name all islands to sound the same. Will greatly enhance enemy's internal communications, type - Where are you , currently - We are at :o)))))
To be sure, I'd re-name them a couple of times over - and then back! to the old names. :o))))))
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