Greece: 'Nobody can play with euro'
At the third attempt, the cold hard details of rescuing Greece have been revealed. Over three years, 80bn euros ($108bn; £70bn) can be drawn on.
The eurozone countries are putting in two-thirds, the rest will come from the IMF. That is no small deal. This year the eurozone would make 30bn euros available with a further ten coming from the IMF. If Greece takes the money it will be one of the biggest rescues ever. The bail-outs of Argentina and Mexico would be put in the shade.
The interest Greece will pay will be around 5%. That is less than the current market rates and will not please German taxpayers. Germany will be the biggest provider and some will argue that in the end they are subsidising bad behaviour.
This is the final throw of the dice to see off the speculators. The Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, said: "No one, any longer, can play with the euro, no one can play with our common future."
In Greece, this is increasingly being portrayed as a battle with speculators. The prime minister said a "gun was on the table" and it was about to be loaded. The target was the speculators. What both Athens and other European leaders hope is that market players who have been testing the will of the eurozone will back off knowing there is now a wall of money behind Greece.
And it is still just possible that investors will be tempted into buying Greek bonds. It is also possible that as the financial markets analyse this deal the cost of financing the Greek deficit will fall. The first test comes on Tuesday when Athens will attempt to auction 1.2bn euros in treasury bills. By the end of May, Greece needs to borrow 11bn euros.
But if Greece cannot raise the money it will call in the rescuers. The Greek prime minister will pick up a phone and admit to the European Commission that it cannot finance itself through the markets. The battle will have been lost.
It will be touch-and-go whether Greece can survive without throwing in the towel. My sense is there is an expectation that Greece will need to call on the loans that are now available. If it happens, Europe's leaders will claim it signifies that the system works. "It shows that the eurozone is serious in doing what is necessary to secure financial stability," said the President of the Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso.
That is true but it cannot disguise failure. There was no mechanism to help a country struggling with debt. Already there are those who are saying it will not be a bail-out because Greece would be saved by loans that are repayable.
Many will see this as playing with words. What if the loans cannot be repaid? Will they just be rolled over? And what if other countries like Portugal or even Spain run into difficulty? Will the same facility be made available to them and who will ultimately finance it?
Not surprisingly, the Spanish finance minister said the deal "indicates a strengthening of the eurozone and stresses the principle of solidarity among the countries that comprise it". The vulnerable tend to be fans of solidarity.
Down the road, other questions will come into play. What if Greece - deep in recession -cannot meet its target to reduce its deficit by 4% this year? What if the economy goes into freefall? What if countries sense they may not get their money back? If it appeared others might want rescuing, when would the German taxpayer cry "enough"? Can the single currency prosper without fiscal union - a step with profound political implications? Can the eurozone survive when its economies are so different?
To stabilise the patient, it has taken a massive rescue plan, but the eurozone will not be stable until the fundamental questions are addressed. All eyes will be on the financial markets.
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~27~RS~)
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So, Gavin: did anything significant happen in Poland/Russia recently? Just asking, 'cos, y'know, you're Europe editor an' all.
Meanwhile, back to the Euro. So, 22bn euros in setaside funds last month, 30bn in loans at 5% this month, and Greece needs 11.5bn euros to get thru April. So no pressure then...
Standing to one side for a moment, this is one heckuva scrap: the Euro-16 vs. the international money markets. Whoever wins, the cost will be immense. Interesting times...unfortunately.
Regards, viewcode
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"No one, any longer, can play with the euro, no one can play with our common future."
Except, of course, for him and his collection of party member friends.
If these guys can beat the market so easily and convincingly, why couldn't they stay out financial trouble in the first place?
This strikes me as the archetypical foolishness of socialism everywhere. They are going to stop the market setting prices by stepping in to save the day. They are going to do what is "fair" for "everybody".
And as a result, a lot of people are going to end up working for the sake of the state, and for nothing.
I repeat, if these people knew enough to second guess and outwit the market, none of them would be where they are today. Not a single one of them. What they do, as a profession, is spend other people's money on schemes which don't work out to be economically viable. That is how we ended up here in the first place.
There is something profoundly degrading about the way party politicians like the EU elite lecture and preach about economic problems. They have no sense of shame, and not a hint of accountability.
You'd think it was not their parties who oversaw the decisions that caused the problem. You'd think it was a completely different set of people who caused the problems, and that these folks were called in to provide a solution which they are famous for developing and applying in similar situations.
The analogy that springs to mind is some guy walks into your house and puts his foot through your coffee table whilst talking about how he can make you living room beautiful. Then, before you can say "be careful", he yells "I'll fix it!" and promptly knocks your TV onto the floor, smashing it. As you look on sadly, he yells "I know exactly what to do!" and kicks your hatstand over, so that it smashes your windows.
All you want him to do is to stop. Just stop what he is doing and shut up. First, do no harm. But he can't shut up. He can't shut up and he can't stop. And he wont get out of your house.
The later you find his brother sells furniture, and his father's business does repairs of flats in your area, and is making a mint these days.
Why don't they just bring back outright slavery, and forgo the pathetic pretense of democracy?
The "democratically" elected governments of the EU just gave away 30 billion euros to bond holders who did not deserve to be paid, according to the market.
In other words, the party members of the EU just agreed to gift 30 billion to the very wealthiest people in the EU, because those people had speculated and had lost. They gave it to them.
That is our money. It is belongs to the investment class. Why? Because those people are too big to fail.
Representation under the two party system has become outright kleptocracy. Political parties exist to redistribute wealth from the taxpayer to the banking and investment class.
There is no free market. There is only party based feudalism. We work so the mega rich earn interest, regardless of what the market says. If the mega rich win on market speculation, they keep their winnings for themselves. If they lose on market speculations, then we work for nothing so that they can be paid out as if they had won.
Why don't they just shoot every second working person and steal everything he owns? I suppose then they would lose an able bodied slave.
Being a party member in Europe is no better than being an accessory to robbery. Not theft, because they police carry guns. These people are committing robbery.
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Oh, and while we're at it ..."...The vulnerable tend to be fans of solidarity..."? Yikes! I haven't met dialogue like that since 50's zombie movies. Shouldn't you put "MWWW-HA-HA-HA! FOOLISH EUROPEANS!" at the end of that sentence?
Regards, viewcode
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Indeed, more questions than answers at the moment. Not a position the markets will like, so I'd agree that they will likely continue to test the set-up.
What's not quite clear is the IMF's involvement in this. Some say the deal is 'co-financed' by the IMF, others that the IMF will 'top up' the package with extra loans if necessary. In any arrangement, surely IMF intervention within the eurozone signals the misconceived euro project's ultimate failure?
In our own present political context, what's most disturbing is reading that people like Peter Mandelson and Nick Clegg in recent statements still support the prospect of Britain eventually joining the euro!
Clearly we have our own adherents to the triumph of (outdated) ideology-driven integration over pragmatism that you talked of previously. But with dire judgement like that, do we really want either of those people being elected to positions of governing power in this country?
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DT in post #2 you made several observations dealt with below:
THEY'RE ALL FRENCH GERMAN LEFTIES. THE TELEGRAPH SAID SO.
"...This strikes me as the archetypical foolishness of socialism everywhere..."
DT, I'm surprised to see you of all people fall into the canard of describing the Euro-16 as "Socialist". Have a look thru the governments of Austria (left), Belgium (center-right), Cyprus (very left), Finland (center), France (center-right), Germany (center-right), Greece (left), Ireland (center/center-right), Italy (you tell me), Luxembourg (center-right), Malta (center-right), the Netherlands (center-right), Portugal (center-left), Slovakia (center-left/left), Slovenia (center-left) and Spain (center-left). Of them, arguably only Austria and Cyprus are socialist/communist.
YOU AND WHO'S ARMY? ER, THIS ONE...
"...if these people knew enough to second guess and outwit the market, none of them would be where they are today..."
What, ruling economies, commanding air forces, ordering about men with tanks, that sort of thing? It's an interesting question: does power lie with the international money markets (who can move trillions at the flick of a switch), or with governments (who can bomb and, in some cases, nuke people). In our fortunate past of peace we've grown used to thinking of vast investment houses as ultra-powerful, and poor lil' governments as silly widdle things.
But every government listed has planes with bombs, ships with shells, and men with guns...(OK, maybe not Malta and Cyprus. But you get the point...:-))
Some commentators on this board welcome the euro kerfuffle because they want to see the Eurozone destroyed and (they think) the consequent triumph of the nation-state. I disagree. If the Euro-16 (an assemblage of nation-states) goes down to the bankers (an assemblage of very rich individual people) then that's it for the nation-state: we may as well make the markets into the finance ministers of the whole EU-27 and cut out the middle man.
GOVERNMENTS DON'T BAKE CAKES
"...What they do, as a profession, is spend other people's money on schemes which don't work out to be economically viable...."
DT, serious question: what do you think governments actually do? "Bureaucrats that spend other people's money on schemes which aren't economically viable" is an accurate description of all governments - at least those you'd actually survive. Patriotic armies are not economically viable entities (if your government makes a profit from its army - run. Run quickly.). Governments do unprofitable uneconomic things for the survival of the nation-state that the markets cannot do: that's why we still have governments.
Regards, viewcode
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I've said it before, but it feels good to reiterate it every now and again.....Thank God the UK is not in the Euro!
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6. At 03:52am on 12 Apr 2010, ninetofivegrind wrote:
"I've said it before, but it feels good to reiterate it every now and again.....Thank God the UK is not in the Euro!"
What makes you thank the all merciful for our luck not to be in the Euro? You like paying banks fees every time you want to use your money 100K from your door? Or is it that you are a banker and that's how you make your money?
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Governments borrow money all the time - every month in fact. That is why governments need to borrow on the international money markets a tan interest rate that is affordable.
11.5bn Euros is required by Greece in April just to pay outstanding/pre-existing national debt.
Then there is May 2010 - a few more billion Euros is required for more debt repayment.
The total debt of Greece in terms of existing owed lending is nearly 300bn Euros and that is not the 12.6% overspend of income from GDP. That overspend has to be met by new borrowings whilst the Greeks try to reduce their annual Budget Deficit.
In essence, Greece has to borrow to continue to pay for existing government spending on wages, infrastructure and government liabilities. The Greeks cannot afford to pay some of the bond spreads at 7+ percent (no country other than a banana republic can afford that kind of future interest repayment!) so 5% from the other Eurozone nations has got to be a sensible way forward.
The problem for Greece is that they are going to need more money than is on offer form the other Eurozone nations.
In will come the IMF and the austerity measures required by the Greek Government are going to then look like children's party games as the IMF will only lend money if they get a say in how the Greek's manage their internal economy ... that is - if the IMF do get asked to help.
The other small matter is touched on by Gavin: If the Eurozone nations do lend Greece funding guarantee at reduced interest rates he suggest that the German citizens will be a tad unhappy as that will be seen as, as Gavin describes it, 'rewarding bad behaviour'. What about the non-Eurozone nations that contribute to the IMF ... Gordon Brown has said that the rescue of the Greek Economy is not a matter for the United Kingdom - it will be, if the IMF gets involved!
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The real problem here is that if Greece is bailed out with cheap international loans then it provides the green light for Portugal, Spain or even Italy to look at the bond interest rate spread that they may have to buy international loans at in the future and the Portuguese, Spanish and Italians to think, "hold on moment - what is good for the goose (Greece) should be also good for the gander (to wit. Portugal, Spain, Italy ....)" - What is the Eurozone going to do then?
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@ Viewcode
The respectful way with which the Russians have handled the victims of the crash in Smolensk has been noticed in Warsaw and elsewhere, for instance in the large editorial of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) today, where Konrad Schuller writes that Lech Kaczynski fought for the recollection (also in relation to Germany), and his death has given this struggle a great impetus. Russia has reason to be greatful for that.
The small editorial of the paper is dealing with Greece under the headline “breathing space is over”. It implies that EU now has to materialize its support to Greece. To the German chancellor the question is now, not if she is a good or bad European, but how she can justify money she will have to give Greece. (An interesting balance between politics and legislation on one side, and her commitment to the market on the other, since it is the market that has forced the politicians to end the breathing space.)
“The numerous conditions Mrs. Merkel insisted on a couple of weeks ago were not meaningless. They feed the hope that the EU member states realise the necessity of an examination of the rules of the currency union. [...] Political pragmatism is not enough. Greece is unlikely to be an exception. Serious participants in this will have to take into consideration a rule change the makes it possible to exclude current members”.
These quotations mirror that the two groups of the EU, the Euro-16 and the rest, are tied to each other so that an exclusion paragraph must be adopted by all members of the Union even if it only concerns the single currency. No surprise if some find it difficult to understand how the Union works.
Apart from that FAZ is announcing more political pressure from Berlin. Mr. Hewitt will interpret this in national terms (because he is thinking in such terms), but the goal is obviously to maintain the Euro as a strong currency. It remains to be seen if anybody should suggest “a closer union” that is integration of fiscal policy instead of an exclusion paragraph.
We will probably also hear from the Greeks in this matter.
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Mr. Hewitt! What a catch there!
""The interest Greece will pay will be around 5%. That is less than the current market rates and will not please German taxpayers. Germany will be the biggest provider and some will argue that in the end they are subsidising bad behaviour.""
Will not please what? Subsidise what? Sorry, pause, rewind, take it from the beginning:
1) Greece has the same financial situation as 10 years back. It is not better not worse than then.
2) In 1998 to 2004 and 2004 to 2008 Greece was borrowing at an average rate of roughly 3-3,5%.
3) Current crisis "provoked" out of private (underline private) US banks deciding suddenly, after the revelation of the "lies", "lies" that themselves knew anyway since ages since they were part of it (as much as the EU knew - frankly said, to put it bluntly even 5-years old in Greece knew...), to rate lower Greece underlying that them (underline them) consider lending Greece at 6% rate.
4) EU says "lets give them 5% and call it "losing money to fund bad Greeks"
Ooooh! What a catastrophe for Germans!!! They are going to lose money to pay bad Greeks! Ooooh! The humanity!!!
A r e w e s e r i o u s? This is lending. It is not money given like that. 5% lending from Europeans is just plain robbery - Germans should be jumping around happy to make profit out of the Greece's misery - in fact those knowledgeable ones do it right now, it is just that they have the nerve to pretend that they are the losers. I am sorry, why don't they say they lost 10% interest rates... at the end of the day EU can lend Greece at a rate of 15% if US private companies tell them so isn't it? Why not? US companies say its 6%. Are we serious? Last year they were saying 3,5% and they were saying this for 10 years now - so how about then? Then they did not know what was the Greek economy all about? Are we serious? If US companies say to Merkel go suicide, Merkel will jump from the 5th floor or something?
So Greece will be robbed at a 2% rate, and the Germans have to be unhappy? I cannot believe the amount of manipulation that EU citizens (each from hiw own corner) receive. 5% is pure exploitation, especially when reviewing again all contracts Greeks gave to Europeans and not to the better offers of Russian, Chinese, Brazilian or alien companies...
So if Germans think that EU lending to EU coujntries have to follow the rules of the market, I am afraid that Greece will has to do the same:
1) Apply fully market laws on all current and future projects - obviously that will end up with mostly Russian and Chinese companies taking up the vast part of the country's projects
2) Make a full judicial scan of all current and past projects which are under exploitation from EU (see mostly German) companies: annulate all contracts which have not followed fully the market law, something easy as none of them has followed full legal procedures anyway. This means that German companies will legally lose all epxloitation of Greek projects like for example Athens new main airport (to name a "little" one...).
3) Decide on making any future project regardless of the "needs" of the EU. If it is deemed nice to make a port for Russians and a second for Chinese, we make 2 ports for Russians and 3 for Chinese.
Laws of the market? Well how about that?
PS: I can easily believe all what is going on but I still can't believe all what is said! Germans lose? Ooooohhhh!!!! The Humanity!!!!!
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... and it won't be Eurofighter, Raphale or Exoset... but Mig, Sukhoi and S400. Laws of the market...
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Thank goodness the UK stayed out of the EU or we would be helping to finance this mess. There was serious consideration of joining not so many years back.
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#11 Nik,
There is at least one thing you should consider: The will be no loans (bail-out) unless the Greek government request the money.
The rest is too complicated...
#13 Mahros;
You are in it anyway. The IMF will be involved when the Greeks ask for money. You will also be involved in the political process I mentioned in #10.
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Re13: Right Mahros. Say also a thank you to Greek working people - according to EU statistics BBC it published, Greeks are the ones that pay the largest % of EU tax and they are per person the highest contributors to the refund Britain receives.
I am not joking. You have to see it with your eyes to believe. Trust me it was hard for me too.
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#13 - all the more reason to be in it. This move is the beginning of the end of the Pound, which has long been getting more and more isolated and will fall further into 'an unsupported abyss' as time goes by. Sad to say, but these are the facts of the 'strength' of the Euro. Sterling use to be a huge player, it is fast becoming a 'bit' player and that, in the fullness of time, will not be good enough in the markets of today.
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2. At 02:00am on 12 Apr 2010, democracythreat wrote:
The truth of the matter.
The current system can be better described as debt slavery than democracy.
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Re14: Mathiasen: the issue was never financial. Financial management in Greece is a joke. A plain joke. It was quite funny back in the 1970s but still it had some serious standing back then, it got more and more funny as the country enterred the EU and surpassed by the end of the 1980s the unreal. The unreal went on for 20 years. If you asked Greeks back in late 1980s they would tell you they would expect a crisis like the one today back in early 1990s. However, throughout the 90s and 00s, American banks (and thus their European blind followers!) seemed to take Greece seriously so seriously as to give huge loans to Greece at 3% rate so as to built:
1) bridges in the middle of nowhere like that of Rio-Antirio... ok! one of the most complex and difficult to make and thus most expensive bridges to make in the world... that serves a 100,000 city to be joined to... a couple of small towns of not more than 20,000 on the next side... all that when the 2 biggest cities in Greece are not still joined with a proper highway all the way...)
2) Olympic venues like the wrestling stadium (who would ever need a special stadium for that?), the huge construction of the piscine (while there were existing ones that could be retrofited...) and the boat race circuit (for which they did... proper terraforming so as to have it near Athens!!!!). The Olympic budget was officially a bit more than 3 times the initia lbudget, people say though that this was more than 4 times the initial budget and note the initial budget was already more than the budget of the Sydney and Atlanta Olympics!!!!!!! Wait! This is our little Greece eh? Putting glasses to Australia and USA!!! Serious business!!!
3) ... the new Athens airport... that went up to more than 3 times the initial budget. But no, German companies were not responsible for this. Only bad corrupt politicians and Greek landowners that sold dearly their lands to the state.
...and other such lovely things.
So what happened now? Couldn't Greece make the break-even with the wrestling stadium? NOooooooooooooooooooo? Don't tell me? How is this posisble???????????? I can't believe this!!!!! I am falling from the clouds!!!!!!!! How shocking! They could not break-even with their wrestling stadium!!!!!!
And what? Nooooooooooo! Don't tell me?????????? The 150,000 city along with the 2 towns of 20,000 people on the opposite side cannot not break-even the Rio-Antirrio bridge, marvel of modern engineering????????????? Noooooooooooo????? Impossible!!!!!! I cannot believe this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well... if such amazing things can happen, then why not, let them take loans at 5%.
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6. At 03:52am on 12 Apr 2010, ninetofivegrind wrote:
I've said it before, but it feels good to reiterate it every now and again.....Thank God the UK is not in the Euro!
As if the pound is doing so extremely well.
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... Mathiasen... to put it bluntly... it will cost less Greece to send 10 Mirage 2000 and 20 F16 bomb the airport and the bridge and the olympic venus than continue having them...
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If it even works this time, it does not fix the problem, it only buys time. What will the Greeks do with that time? Will they actually repair their finances? History is ominous. Does this open the door for the rest of the PIIGS to walk through also? Is Germany the sucker to pick up the tab for all of them? Will it ever really be repaid? EUSSR socialism will result in what socialism always results in, a leveling of wealth, universally shared poverty.
"But if Greece cannot raise the money it will call in the rescuers. The Greek prime minister will pick up a phone and admit to the European Commission that it cannot finance itself through the markets. The battle will have been lost."
It already has been. All that's missing is the white flag. Can't you smell death?
"It will be touch-and-go whether Greece can survive without throwing in the towel. My sense is there is an expectation that Greece will need to call on the loans that are now available. If it happens, Europe's leaders will claim it signifies that the system works. "It shows that the eurozone is serious in doing what is necessary to secure financial stability," said the President of the Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso."
That's what they said at Maastrict when they passed the Growth and Stability Pact. Just whom are they kidding?
"That is true but it cannot disguise failure. There was no mechanism to help a country struggling with debt. Already there are those who are saying it will not be a bail-out because Greece would be saved by loans that are repayable."
Whether Greece can pay back the EU and IMF tomorrow anymore than it can pay its other creditors today remains to be seen. Drastic changes Greeks will resist with strikes and other political pressure may preclude that. But even if the changes are made, that is no guarantee it will prosper to the point that it can repay its debts.
"Many will see this as playing with words. What if the loans cannot be repaid? Will they just be rolled over? And what if other countries like Portugal or even Spain run into difficulty? Will the same facility be made available to them and who will ultimately finance it?"
How many times can you roll over debt? When does rolling over and playing dead end and being dead happen?
"Not surprisingly, the Spanish finance minister said the deal "indicates a strengthening of the eurozone and stresses the principle of solidarity among the countries that comprise it". The vulnerable tend to be fans of solidarity."
Typical European hype. How much more of this "solidarity" will the German taxpayers stand for? Spain hopes enough for them to ride the same gravy train.
"Down the road, other questions will come into play. What if Greece - deep in recession -cannot meet its target to reduce its deficit by 4% this year? What if the economy goes into freefall? What if countries sense they may not get their money back? If it appeared others might want rescuing, when would the German taxpayer cry "enough"? Can the single currency prosper without fiscal union - a step with profound political implications? Can the eurozone survive when its economies are so different?"
4% deficit? To pay back a loan you need a surplus unless you can keep persuading people you will one day be able to pay off your debts. Greece's credibility is all but gone. In a world of tight credit, why should anyone with money believe them?
"To stabilise the patient, it has taken a massive rescue plan, but the eurozone will not be stable until the fundamental questions are addressed. All eyes will be on the financial markets."
That's been the issue from day one. It is no closer to being resolved today than it was then.
" The prime minister said a "gun was on the table" and it was about to be loaded."
The only thing that gun is good for is the Eurozone committing suicide. Compared to far more than a trillion dollars a day the world's currency speculators exchange, the EU's gun is hardly a pea shooter.
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Didn't Greece host the Olympic Games not so long ago ? And who hosts next ? Caledonian Comment
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It's becoming quite a spectator sport, this "let's watch the Greeks being taken down by the lions" isn't it? Anyone for Lark's Liver?
But do those, salivating over the coming spectacle, not realise that the end consequences will bite them all in the backside too? Bashing the euro, and the EU in general, may be good sport for the rabid anti-EU posters on this blog but their beloved GBP will be whacked in quick succession, of that there seems little doubt.
The EU, imperfect as it is, HAS helped maintain a peace within Europe's borders for a generation and to crave its destruction strikes me as very foolish indeed; the consequences will affect everyone, without exception, and lead to BAD STUFF.
Would the destruction of the EU, effectively by financial terrorists from the other side of the pond, really be a 'good thing' for anyone?
C'mon people, are we sentient beings or mere rubber-neckers?
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This is what the Eurozone has come to, faced with a struggling member that over the years did everything to get to the financial brink.
Now it has become clear that financial markets have won round one.They have gained the upper hand forcing the Eurozone to detail a rescue plan.To many it is no longer a question of if but when Greece finally succumbs left with no option but to take up the loans now shelled out.
When that happens - I am still hoping that it won't - something very serious will have changed and it is not pretty at all.
Formally it won't be a bail-out, merely re-payable loans at interest rates not as punishing as markets would have them.
But the markets will have won round two by not bowing to the gun on the table, loaded or not.
The ensuing what-ifs are very many and Gavin Hewitt spells them out.
Let us not be pessimistic.
I must concede that the sceptics from day one have so far been proved right.
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In spite of what is being revealed for public consumption (not just by you, but by other financial analysts & writers), you can bet that the details of this “loan” (if the loan ever happens) were mostly written by (or to placate) Germany; thus we have the inclusion of the IMF so that Germany's Merkel will not be seen as accepting the bulk of the load onto German shoulders.
The IMF, with its strict lending rules, will never get its hands on Greece. I mean it's like over EU’s dead body!
As it stands the low interest rate (if the loan ever happens) will cause Merkel some public agony at home.
The true picture however, rests with Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou's statement: "No one, any longer, can play with the euro, no one can play with our common future." (I believe I know and I’ll bet you know, who this “no one” refers to and what this “no one” refers to, but in case you're having a bad day: the no one is the United States of America betting in credit default swaps that Greece will default. What's more Greece is not alone. The same has been played in Spain, Portugal, Italy, and even the UK.)
There is a gun on the table@ The gun will be loaded when it comes to the June G-20 in Canada; it’s called a bank levy and will most likely take the form of a Tobin Tax on all foreign transaction. One of the principle reasons for such Tobin Tax is the creation of a computerized audit trail that can be used as evidence to identify & deal with the speculators, risk-takes, gamblers who feel such greed that they will bet on sovereign debt, i.e. attempt to take down an entire nation and its people.
The first hint of a below-the-surface plan may come Tuesday - when Athens auctions 1.2B euros in treasury bills. Let’s see how these treasury bills fare, and what the “fareness” tells us about inside the EU.
I believe you are wrong: My sense is that Greece (by hook or by crook) will get by, without an y loans, unmtil the G-20 - when the overall EU plan will come to life.
What happens at the G-20 will show that the eurozone is serious in doing what is necessary to secure its financial stability.
There may be no mechanism to help a country struggling with debt, but there are mechanisms “up the sleeve”, waiting, and this is just. It’s not right to play with any country’s sovereign debt. There can be, there are, mechanisms to make the country that caused this debt face up to its responsibilities since it doesn't seem capable of doing that on its own.
As you say, to stabilise the patient, the EU has publicised a massive rescue plan, but the eurozone will not be stable until the gamblers are identified, prosecuted and brought to justice. Hopefully they will be fined mega-bucks & repo’d into prison where they belong.
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I was under the impression that member states had to keep within certain fiscal limits ? Or are these thrown out of the window when the stability of the euro is threatened ? It makes a mockery of the entire organisation and puts the credibility of member states such as Germany and France into question. I wonder what the average citizen of France and Germany think of this bail out ? Yours. Disgusted.
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Don’t let the Labour Party lie to you twice. Don’t let them trick you into the Euro.
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“On the Euro, we hold to our promise that there will be no membership of the single currency without the consent of the British people in a referendum” Labour Party manifesto 2010.
“We will put [the EU Constitution] to the British people in a referendum’, Labour Party manifesto 2005.
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Despite a favourable market reaction today to this "deal", surely there can be little doubt that Greece must go to the EU/IMF. The institutional investors who might be persuaded to invest are not a totally different group of investors from those who are already exposed to the default risk. And any new investors will be exposed to exactly the same default risk as existing investors. The market would be crazy if it did not take the upcoming opportunity to force external IMF monitoring with the teeth to impose the necessary structural reform on Greek society. The Greek Government cannot deliver such reform voluntarily because of the huge political costs that would be involved. So it would be remarkable if the markets were prepared to lend at rates that render the support package unneccessary.
It has suited Papandreou to be able to blame the "irrational" markets. But he now knows from the advice received over recent months the enormity of the necessary structural reform they. The only way the much-needed deep reform will occur is if the IMF insists on it. While the rhetoric denies the need for the support package, the Greek government must now know enough about the power of the markets to realise the inevitability of having to formally ask for support. Indeed, one might hope that this is what the government is banking on, for this would be consistent with both understanding the markets and with having the long-term interests of Greece at heart.
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viewcode wrote:
"DT, serious question: what do you think governments actually do?"
That is a particularly poorly phrased question. "What is the proper role of government?" is the only important question. What I think or believe is unimportant, and asking for my opinions rather than discussing the matter openly implies that you either respect my views regardless of the content or, worse still, that you see yourself as some kind of useful psychoanalyst.
As it happens I think all sorts of governments do all sort of things. In the modern system of representation by and for corporate interests, governments largely oversee the transfer of wealth from the working population to the owners of the corporations.
Unlike a communist state which has theoretical obligations to its people, fascist governments (corporate rule) do not. Services are provided by the market and the user pays for what the user uses. Property is owned privately, and government becomes a game, a contest for control of the means of taxation. Those who win the game get to spend the prize, taxation revenue, as they see fit. In fascist states the tax revenue goes to the largest corporations and the families who own them as private property.
That is why fascist states collapse. They, like communist states, do not uphold the free market. They step in to tax the market wheresoever possible in order to gain wealth for their families, and by so doing they destroy the free market. Instead of having a bunch of communist party members taxing everything that moves in order to build grand schemes, you have fascist party members taxing everything that moves in order to build grand private fortunes.
But the result for the market, and all who work in it, is the same: destitution brought on by the totalitarian state. Fascist or communist, you end up with the total state, where every citizen spies and reports on all the others, and collects taxes for the party members who control the system of representation.
The total state is destined to devolve into corrupt and backward despotism, because by destroying freedoms and taxing profits entirely, it destroy the will to work and the will to innovate. But communists and fascists do not care about that. The only thing they care about is their grand schemes, and both communists and fascists indoctrinate their tribe to believe that they are born to rule because they are the most fit to rule.
And curiously enough, both communism and fascism are political systems which evolved from another form of totalitarian rule: feudalism.
So if you really want my opinion on what governments do, it rather depends on the type of government in question. In general terms, governments redistribute money by taxing and spending. Who they take it from and who they give it to entirely depends on whether the system is an advanced despotism, an enlightened democracy, an anarchic free for all or whatever.
Now, regarding the proper role of government:
The proper role of government is to respond to the will of the sovereign. The proper role of the sovereign is to protect the welfare of the members of the community.
Now when the sovereign is the people (democracy), the role of government is to respond to their will, and to protect the welfare of all citizens. That would imply the protection of individual liberties and thus the curtailment of state size, power and revenue. It also seems to have the very happy side effect of creating huge innovation and work ethic, because it appears that human beings work harder and think better when they are free and dignified under the law.
Now when the sovereign is the party, or the appointee of an oligarchy, endorsed by a group of witch doctors, then the definitions given above still hold.
What changes profoundly is the idea of "community". The government still has a duty to respond to the will of the sovereign. And the government still has a duty to protect the welfare of the "community".
But in a feudal/fascist/communist state, the community is not all the citizens. Curiously, a study of all these types of governments show this to be the case very clearly.
All government express the aim of protecting their community. And so, when they wish to steal from parts of the population, such governments create laws to excommunicate the victims from the community. Then they can steal the property belonging to those individuals and still maintain their role as protectors of the community.
In feudal europe, a caste system create a situation whereby the only real members of the community were the nobility. Only the nobility were protected by the magna carta, and lessor castes of human being were not given standing at law to enforce the rights which were proper to the noble community (from which lovely phrase we obtain the word "Property": that which is proper to those with sufficient legal privileges)
In a communist state, the way to steal from the people is to declare them enemies of the state, and thus make them sub humans, an underclass with no rights whose work and property can be seized by the state. And so you end up with the gulags, mass slave labour, enemies of the people, state property and all the other endearing characteristics of the soviet system. But the government still protects its community: it just takes care to define the community in such a way as to designate those it wishes to enslave and rob as non citizens first.
Moving on to fascism, we all know the famous story there. "Untermensch" was the term used by the German state to declare as non citizens all jews, gypsies russians, slavs of all types, homosexuals, the disabled and even those with those wrong ideological or political beliefs.
In this way, the government could continue to represent and protect "the community", and yet it was also able to steal the property and work of vast numbers of people.
Now I will surprise everyone by including my beloved Switzerland in my short list of states which abuse human rights and feed on human being sin order to enrich the elite.
In the Swiss state, immigrants have no voting rights and are routinely denigrated and defamed by the state. The state, and indeed private citizens, prey upon the weakness of immigrants, using them as subordinate sexual partners, cheap workers and the butt of jokes. By making immigrant workers sub humans with fewer rights at law to "real" human beings, the Swiss citizens, the state is able to obtain cheap labour, extract higher taxes and provide an enemy within.
Obviously Switzerland is not on par with the abuses seen in other parts of the world, but I wanted to show how the pattern holds.
The government obey the sovereign and the sovereign protects the interests of the community.
Those are the rules human beings appear to follow as social animals.
How that pans out in practical terms depends entirely upon who is the sovereign and who are the community, both in constitutional terms and from government to government, as it chooses to expand and contract the definition of its community.
In the EU, the sovereign is the party members who have been groomed and installed by the community, which is the shareholding families of very large corporations.
Everybody else is a sub human, a chattel and a farm animal. A means of production, to be worked and bled and consumed as the owners of the farm see fit. They are given straw to sleep on so they don't catch cold, and they are fed enough so that they can continue to work. Except in greece, where they are being flogged with whips to support a very lazy, very corrupt master.
But regardless of whether the farm animals of europe are well treated or not, their status is clear.
They are not full human beings. They are ruled over and farmed like animals.
They are not sovereign, they are not even the community, and until europe evolves into a democracy these things will always be a mere aspiration.
Now I understand that nobody wants t be described as an animal living inside a backward society ruled by primitive ideologies. It isn't flattering, and conflicts with national pride.
But it is what it is, and we are where we are. This is how government operate. This is what they do. This is why it is so important to understand what government you live under, and exactly what law governs your rights as an individual.
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If Greek bond interest rates go down now, it will show how ridiculous the entire banking system is. If a country was allowed to borrow at 3% - 4% six months ago, then asked to pay 7% then actually borrow at 4% - 5% what purpose do all the idiots that work at the banks serve? None at all. It will prove (once again) that the financial markets are some smoke and mirrors operations that are good for nothing. So within two years we had two crisis caused by the markets because they act like a flock of sheep, they "sell" us their existance as the necessary "experts" that ensure the smooth and efficient operation of the financial system, they have failed spectaculaly and constantly over the last two years. For me the question that journalists should be asking are: what is the point of having financial markets? They prevent nothing, once in a crisis they solve nothing! There is no disagreement of opinion within them, they act at best as a flock of sheep and at worse as a cartel. I suspect they act as a cartel and as such they should be broken up.
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#26
@dinky2401, is that a trick question or are you really that ignorant? anyhow the answer is that other than LUX no other country meets the Euro fiscal limits.
In addition both Germany & France broke those rules in the past.
And currently we here in the UK break the stability pack rules, but really those rules need to be broken what is the point of running a government surplus or be bellow the 3% deficit limit if you have +10% of your people out of work?
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There is a lot of metaphor and analogy being employed here by people whom I suspect do not really understand the basic facts of what has transpired. Particularly, I am dismayed to read the market being described as some kind of malign force, attacking the wonderful eurozone which never did anything wrong.
That analysis is puerile, at best. It is childish, and adopts a staunchly pro EU position without thinking about it.
The facts are these:
1. EU governments, in this particular case Greece, went to the bond market and said "We want to borrow many billions of Euros and spend them. We will pay you back interest with tax money we take from our people."
2. The wealthy people with money to lend in the bond market said "After doing our due diligence and looking at your credentials as a loan aspirant, we have decided to lend you vast sums of money. Spend away, and enjoy! Interest payments and capital repayments will fall due as set out on the loan document."
3. The government of greece spent all the money on projects which, it transpires, enriched a few elites (including, believe it or not, quite a few of the people who lent the money in the first place) but which did not cause the economy to become stronger and thus more capable of generating tax revenue.
4. Go back to step 1 and repeat until taxation revenue is no longer sufficient to pay interest repayments.
5. BREAK POINT. Interest repayments can't be paid. Greek government say to the bond market "We cannot pay. We are reducing wages, increasing taxes and generally flogging our working people as if they were donkeys pulling our plough to grow crops for you to eat, but even then we cannot raise the money to pay you your interest."
6. The ultra wealthy investors go to their own governments and say "We are not going to get paid. The greek workers are slaving away under massive taxation and low wages, but even so we have lent so much that they simply cannot pay the interest anymore. We demand that you tax the workers in the other member states so that WE RECEIVE OUR INTEREST PAYMENTS. WE CANNOT LOSE MONEY HERE. TAX THE WORKERS IN OTHER STATES SO THAT WE GET OUR PRIVATE PROFITS."
7. The governments in the member states say to the investors "But if we do that, people will be outraged. We can't tax germans to pay profits to private investors whose money the greek government handed out to rich greeks. That will make people unbelievably angry."
8. The investment class, the ultra rich of Europe, said to the member state governments "So what? Who cares? If you don't do it, those party members over there will. We pay for ALL your educations. We own ALL the newspapers which you need to get elected. You represent us. Not them. Find a way to do it. Get it done. Our interest is due in four weeks, and if we do not get our PRIVATE PROFITS out of this system, we will force you from office."
9. The member state governments get it done. They take money from their own workers to pay interest to people who lent money to the greek government so that the greek government could gift that money to an elite, consisting of people who have businesses capable of undertaking government contracts. Curiously or not, many of these people are exactly the same people who lent the money in the first place.
10. End result: workers all over Europe are taxed and have their wages lowered in order for the investment class to receive profits from investments which went bad.
That is the bottom line here. There is no "market vs the Euro". there is no market.
There is only people being taxed so that other people may make profits from investments that never succeeded in the market.
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P-cubed wrote:
"The market would be crazy if it did not take the upcoming opportunity to force external IMF monitoring with the teeth to impose the necessary structural reform on Greek society. The Greek Government cannot deliver such reform voluntarily because of the huge political costs that would be involved. "
This is a reasonable epitaph for the death of even sham democracy at the hands of the IMF.
More and more often these days, I find myself explaining the meaning of the word "Fascism". Almost nobody knows what it means (it means the control of government by corporations. It does NOT mean bad things germans did 60 years ago.)
And when I explain that "fascism" means governments being controlled by private corporations, and interfering in markets and removing democratic laws in order to tighten their control over tax revenue, I always get the same look.
Folks stare off into the distance for a few seconds, as if struck by some ugly truth that is not too hard to understand. Then they usually say something like "Great.", and the conversation moves on to more pleasant topics.
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Reassuring to know that the money speculators are driving the costs up. Same people that drove the housing market and the financial collapse. Jackels circle the wounded waiting for the easy meal. Why any nation feels some responsbility to maintain the banking industries "ratings" and other self-decided, self-interest statements shows a complete amnesia about how that business tends to operate. The maintenance of the status quo is an assurance that this will all happen again.
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Re32: Well, a pretty eloquent description of how it goes. I would like just to note that given the root of the international financial system, the creditors were never interested in just having their money back with a 3% interest. There was a general understanding that the loans could never be repaid. As Andreas Papandreou, father of Giorgakis Papandreou said "Don't ask me about the loans. These are not for now, not tomorrow but the day after tomorrow. But I will be dead by then". True, Andreas died in 1996 almost 15 years earlier - he knew well what he was saying and what he was doing anyway since he was a professor of economics at a high-ranking US university. People from many countries (especially in Latin America) will find striking similarities with all that not any reason other than that the root of all these loans ARE not local political aristocracies but the international monetary system (based at US but having deeper roots back in pre-20th century Europe). That is the New World Order, in essence the Old World Order. Indeed the NWO IS the OWO and even physically! It is the same people over and over again.
Now what has to be clear is that this financial oligarchy is not after "profit" as people might think. It is after power. If they are a "feudal" system as DemocracyThreat says (and I agree with him), they are so not because they want to be paid in money. They are not interest in money; they own money. What they are interested is real value, that is land, ressources and the means of production.
Greece will simply follow the trend: do the big sell out. German politicians were not just being ironic when talking about selling islands...
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Re:33: "".... I always get the same look. Folks stare off into the distance for a few seconds, as if struck by some ugly truth that is not too hard to understand. Then they usually say something like "Great.", and the conversation moves on to more pleasant topics.""
Hahahahaha... I have seen that so many times! Imagine that (while I can be less knowledgeable in the details) I am much more graphic in my descriptions than you!
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democracythreat, your 2:45pm on 12 Apr 2010 post sounds like as if you are assuming that a vast majority if not all holders of Greek government debt are ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UNHNWI). If that is indeed what you think, do you perhaps a link to a source that supports that claim?
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" And it is still just possible that investors will be tempted into buying Greek bonds"
Gavin!
It's the way you tell 'em, Mate!
You wanted to be a stand-up comedian but decided you would rather sit down!
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Two predictions:
1) By end of June Greek will have tapped the €30Bn fund (setting up the problem of how much more dosh needs to 'set aside' for when Greece threatens, once again, to default on its loans come Oct 2010).
2) By end of July we'll be having this discussion about one of the other PIIGS.
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baybars wrote:
"democracythreat, your 2:45pm on 12 Apr 2010 post sounds like as if you are assuming that a vast majority if not all holders of Greek government debt are ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UNHNWI). If that is indeed what you think, do you perhaps a link to a source that supports that claim?"
baybars, I am working from the fairly crazy presumption that people with a lot of money to lend have a lot of money.
Now, I can't prove that. There are no records of people who buy government bonds, because most people who do choose to buy government bonds buy them through investment houses, which are companies set up to purchase bonds upon behalf of private clients who wish to remain discreetly anonymous.
If you read some financial history (I recommend the history of the Rotschilde banking family by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson) you will discover that large brokering firms such as the Rotschildes, the Barings and so on were not hugely influential in both politics and the market because of their own personal wealth, Their extraordinary power came from the fact that they were investing upon behalf of princes, kings, dukes, barons, earls and so on and so forth.
Closure to home, a very short enquiry will yield the information that the royal family of the UK, who charmingly refer to themselves as "the firm" in private conversation, have set up their own investment portfolio as part of banking enterprise also. In their case, the bank was called "Coutts".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coutts
Will get you started. Notice that this bank was almost exclusively catering to the "landed gentry" (their words, not mine)
I gather the new term for the landed gentry is "UHNWI", which is less descriptive but far more discreet. You'd miss the fact that they own vast areas of land, and thus you might forget, or not notice, they receive vast sums of money from the EU in farming subsidies. Indeed, this was the fundamental purpose of the EU for many, many years. It took vast sums of money from taxpayers and channelled it to the landed gentry (or UHNWI if your prefer) with absolutely no governmental oversight from any particular member state, and with no legal mechanism for tax payers to enquire or to challenge the payments.
But to get back to your question, you are absolutely correct. I am indeed assuming that those who have money to invest in the bond market are the very same people who have money to invest in the bond market. You're spot on the money there, you could say. You have correctly analyzed my position.
This far fetched guess can be turned around, also, providing further wacky and zany theories. For example, I look deep into my crystal ball and deduct that people with no money to invest in the bond market must sell their time on the labour market to earn money to feed their families, and thus it will be these people who will pay their money to the investment class if taxes are raised so that bond holders can be assured of their profits.
You see a pattern in my reasoning here: People with money have money. People with no money do not have money.
Now I am aware of the theories which state that any talk of the landed gentry and a European aristocracy are fantasy and myth, and that in fact everyone in the market is a middle class investor with a pension fund.
This theory says that everyone without money actually has money, and furthermore that people with money really don't have any money at all.
I'm too stupid to understand that logic, and incidentally I live in Switzerland and have spent a good deal of my life assisting the minor landed gentry structuring their wealth so that they take best advantage of the corporate form.
I am extremely familiar with people with money claiming to not have any money, and I am also increasingly familiar with the theory that everyone in the market are people with no money who actually do have money.
Zurich is full of trustafarians who have never worked a day in their lives, and they are all chanting the same thing these days.
"Everyone in the market is a pension fund. There are no rich people left. The market is actually made up of ordinary working people. Rich people don't make money. In fact, they don't have any. Poor rich people. That is why they pay no tax."
You can believe whatever you want, in the end.
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The thing about a fascist economy and society is that it feeds upon itself. The basic premis is that the market is to be controlled by the ruling party of elites, and that it is legitimate for them to structure the market and the law so that they make profits without competing in the market.
The natural consequence of such a system is that it feeds upon itself: it consumes itself from within. Bit by bit, the ruling elite steal and tax and steal and tax from the non ruling untermensch. As this goes on, hard work is rewarded by slavery and innovation is rewarded by theft. If you work hard, the elite are delighted and take everything you have made. If you innovate, the elite are delighted and take everything you have made.
Eventually, you end up with a stagnant and hateful economy: the feudal dark ages, and Soviet communism.
As long as the true role of government is to transfer wealth from one group of human beings to another, you have a cannibalistic economy. It will consume itself, and it will result in stagnation, corruption and absolute poverty for the vast majority of people.
And just stop to think about what is happening here. These billions and billions now being promised to "greece": where do they come from, and where do they go?
They don't come from member state governments, because the member state governments are broke. So they have to borrow that money. And their people have to pay interest on it, and pay back the capital.
So it comes from those with money: the investment class. In the old days they were called the landed gentry. Now UHNWI's.
And where does it go? To the people? To funds to build schools and roads? Curiously, no. Now the debt is so large that all the money is going to merely pay interest on the debt. So all this money is going to the investment class.
So the money is going from the investment class to the investment class. On its happy travels, it stops by to collect interest from the working people of the member states, and then that money also goes to the investment class.
And the role of government is to make that happen, despite the markets. The markets say the investors mad a bad choice and must lose their money. Bad debt, sorry, you lose. But the governments are stepping in, and ensuring the money flows from investor to investor, plus interest.
That situation can only be described as managing the transfer of public wealth to private hands, DESPITE the market.
At least the communists stole everything from people because they claimed to be helping them. At least you maybe got some free hot water.
This corporate fascism is just outright private robbery. It is using the state as a means of theft, and to defeat the free market.
It is pure despotism, and Europe calls it legitimate because there is a long tradition of the practice.
A duke is a despot. A prince is a despot. A king is a dictator. A princess is the daughter of a dictator. A Baron is a despot.
These are the historical meanings of these words. Benign or not, cruel or not, talented or not, all people who held these ranks were technically political despots, ruling over despotic systems of government. Only in modern Europe, people speak of them with respect and awe.
The political landscape of the EU is a backwards, cowardly place, and I can fully appreciate why Marcus and other Americans are disgusted with it.
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@ EUprisoner (etc): the "markets" have spoken - they are ready to buy the Greek 10-year bonds (and at a good rate for Greece, I understand).
No-one seems to have responded to MAII at #21. Marcus - the rate offered to Greece is higher than the market rate for the PIIGS: so they shouldn't be too worried - unless the market now turns on them (?). Yet the rate to Greece is higher than Germany or any other OK eurozone country can get on the market - so they should make money.
NB an interesting side-effect is that the Euro has bounced back on the foreign exchange market - which should be good for German (and French, etc) exports.
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Lots of hater posts like these:
"Thank god we are not in the Euro"
Thanks to the Euro, Greece has Germany and the Netherlands to help them out. Thanks to Greece and it pushing down the value of the Euro, exports in the Netherlands and Germany have exploded at the fastest pace in over a decade! Check the facts please! Thank you Greece for creating Dutch and German jobs. Thanks you Euro for not pushing Greece into a monetary crisis as well. Which would make things even worse, not better as many people here think. Check the facts again please, and look at other sovereign debt crisis for examples, and tell me that being part of a large currency block was not a nice cushioning of the blows, thank you.
Thanks to the Pound the UK has nobody to help them out, or currency partner (Germany, Netherlands, etc) to dampen the shocks, when reality will hit, and it will hit next year. The UK numbers are not better than those of Greece far from it, and if the unfunded liabilities for the UK health system and pension scheme are accounted for, those figures might actually turn out to be worse. And yes those are kept of the books as well, so far for accountency-rules/tricks/fraud/lies. And thanks to your banksters in Londen, corrupt politicians/bankster-henchmen in Westminster, the UK has no significant manufacturing base left to get the only benifit from a plumiting Pound; exports. The Pound dropt 30% already to the Dollar and exports went nowhere.
And it might surprise all those red eyed british haters out here, but as a fellow European and a Dutch citizen I feel we should try to help the UK out at that point in time as well. As I feel the common British people cannot be blamed for this as well, but rather were fooled into it as well by politicians acting like father christmas with the money of your grand children.
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"DT, I'm surprised to see you of all people fall into the canard of describing the Euro-16 as "Socialist". Have a look thru the governments of Austria (left), Belgium (center-right), Cyprus (very left), Finland (center), France (center-right), Germany (center-right), Greece (left), Ireland (center/center-right), Italy (you tell me), Luxembourg (center-right), Malta (center-right), the Netherlands (center-right), Portugal (center-left), Slovakia (center-left/left), Slovenia (center-left) and Spain (center-left)" - viewcode
Is that from a 'European' perspective?
A recent article, in one of the newspapers here I believe (planet Flanders, Belgium), gave an overview of the UK parties in the run-up to the election. The view seemed to be that something that would be considered 'centre' in Europe, would be more along the lines of socialist/labour in the UK, and 'centre-right' might just approach being liberal.
Like many things in Europe, things have to be taken in context. Otherwise, if I didn't know better, I would have found myself agreeing with a Flemish work colleague who insisted that there's no more discrimination here than in the UK, as almost everyone here finds it normal that only white Flemish people present TV programmes, are teachers, managers and god knows what. From a UK perspective of course, it might seem somewhat different...
mvg,
Michael
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Mathiesen, re your post #10:
Thanks for the heads-up.
Regards, viewcode
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Freeborn John re: your post #27, in which you said.
"...Don’t let the Labour Party lie to you twice. Don’t let them trick you into the Euro..."
Considering the Labour Party have been in government in the UK for the last 13 years and could have bought in the Euro any time it wanted since 1999, it's fairly safe to say it's the one party you can guarantee won't bring in the Euro.
Regards, viewcode.
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democracythreat, in post #29 you wrote
"...That [my question about what you think governments actually do] is a particularly poorly phrased question..."
Nope, I've looked at it twice. Colon in the right place, question mark at end, italics added for emphasis - the phrasing is immaculate. Perhaps you meant a "poorly chosen question"?
"..."What is the proper role of government?" is the only important question..."
I agree that it's an important question. Regardless of its status, it is still not the question I asked. I asked you what you think governments actually do.
"...What I think or believe is unimportant, and asking for my opinions rather than discussing the matter..."
Asking your opinion *is* discussing the matter. The matter in question is me asking you what you think governments actually do.
"...What I think or believe is unimportant, and asking for my opinions rather than discussing the matter openly implies that you either respect my views regardless of the content or, worse still, that you see yourself as some kind of useful psychoanalyst..."
Nope, I really want to know what you think governments actually do. That's why I asked.
"...So if you really want my opinion on what governments do,..."
Yes, I do really want to know. That's why I asked.
"...So if you really want my opinion on what governments do, it rather depends on the type of government in question. In general terms, governments redistribute money by taxing and spending...."
Thank you.
I wanted to know that because in a previous post you used the phrase "...what they do, as a profession, is spend other people's money on schemes which don't work out to be economically viable...". Your use of this phrase is fair enough, but by your own (correct) definition, it's tautological: all governments take things (money, land, freedoms) from some people and give things (money, land, freedoms) to some other people.
So I'm not sure the criticism you levy at Socialist governments in post #2 is conclusive because, by your own (correct) definition, that's what every government actually does.
Regards, viewcode
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33 democracythreat
"Folks stare off into the distance for a few seconds, as if struck by some ugly truth that is not too hard to understand. Then they usually say something like "Great.", and the conversation moves on to more pleasant topics."
Are you sure they are not saying under their breath:"Oh no, here he goes again, Switzerland's secret boring weapon?"
Seriously, are you sure people want to hear your opinions over and over again?
Especially as you don't seen to have anything new and interesting to say on the subject. So, give other people a chance.
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Another annoying point of view from Gavin but thanks for putting again Greece high in the agenda! It seems it is entertaining! :-)
I am actually more optimist now but a practical point of great importance I think: it is necessary for EU to check on the Greek government to deliver much needed wide range reforms in a number of sectors that will actually deliver growth. Without growth, all the money that EU and IMF can offer Greece won't do the trick. I am very pleased that solidarity prevailed. I honestly think that our future is common and I would be happy to contribute to aid UK in the future.
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democracythreat, re your posts #40 and #41.
It may surprise you to know that I agree with almost every word of your two posts #40 and #41.
Over the past several blogs I've been developing the proposition that the supranational EU is a predictable outgrowth of the intergovernmental EU-27 - it's an emerging property of autonomous nation-state units attempting to maximise power by cooperating.
Or, less pretentiously, it's a little gang, so it is. Bless.
And, like every other crowd, gang, family, bunch, whatever, it has a mind of its own. Possibly the dullest mind in history, (mmmm...bananas. Too bendy! Not like!), but a mind nevertheless.
Now, many posters here believe that the EU imposes itself on the widdle innocent nation-states and their peoples, and that all is needed is for the EU to be destroyed.
I disagree.
The EU is created, developed, and imposed on the people of the EU-27 by the governments of the EU-27, for the governments of the EU-27, in the interests of the governments of the EU-27, and to heck with whether it's in our interests or not. That is why I hold out very little hope for Eurosceptics: they're continually attacking the wrong target. They say "Ooohh, our government will get us out of this mess!", whereas the truth is "No, your government got you into this mess, and will keep you in this mess, because it likes ruling you and ain't letting go, ever." - Hannan's Law, which is a populist restatment of an observation by Simon Hix, is that "There are no Eurosceptic governments".
OK, so far, so depressing. Any hope?
Weirdly, it may be in the institutions of the EU itself. Some of the measures it implements are unambiguously good. Witness the Copenhagen criteria: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities. Some countries have never had that, ever. Now they have. Woo! That's not just good, it's phenomenally good.
That is why I was so disappointed when, after laying out your case so carefully, you went and said "...The political landscape of the EU..." Er, it would have been more accurate to say the "EU-27".
Incidentally, this also covers a frequently-observed criticism of the EU: the democratic deficit. the EU has a popular democratic deficit because its actual demos (the governments of the EU-27) would rather commit hari-kiri than relinquish power to the people.
The only thing I can think of to cure this (other than emigration) is to attempt to democratise my current constituency, the UK, which has a whacking great democratic deficit: unelected head of state, no written constitution, indirectly-elected head of government, only 50% of the legislature is elected, and that by FPTP. However, as frequently observed, the UK population are content with their method of governance and don't feel the need to change it. Ouch...
Regards, viewcode
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What is your point, viewcode?
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Europe's "bailout" of Greece -- a nation of 11+ million, with a significant global diaspora -- is considerably smaller than the US bailout of just AIG, an insurance company whose acronym was once decoded by insiders as meaning "America Is God."
The premise of the creation of the EU and eurozone was that by aggregating resources, the sovereign states of Europe would have greater impact on the world in all areas, including the global economy, as well as global policy-making.
However unhappy individuals, even in great number, might be by the immediate consequences to them and to their households, the essential premise of the EU/eurozone has been proven true.
There is a price to pay for those gains, and that is occasionally having to help each other.
It defies reason that there has been such a fuss raised over helping Greece when, as you most accurately point out, other nations might also at some future date require assistance. And very recently there was considerable unpleasantness -- but also swift action -- over the need to stanch the monetary haemorrhaging of Iceland.
However much many of those present in this conversation might prefer winding back time and choosing a different path, the EU is hardly likely to disband. Too many participants have gotten used to this arrangement. It is not unlike the QWERTY keyboard. We all know there are better ways to enable writing, yet we stick to this one because this keyboard is almost everywhere, and we are used to it.
Let me extend the analogy by mentioning the contrasting case of Cyrillic keyboards. There, at least three versions are commonplace. Only one actually makes any kind of sense. Yet no one is choosing to make the obviously preferable layout standard. The reason: too many old secretaries trained in the old Soviet layout; too few male executives who actually care about what makes sense, and makes the future easier on students or scholars or scientists (to name a few).
Sometimes it is better to go with a streamlined, worked out "system" -- even when it is tested by unpleasant developments -- than to opt for chaos, instead.
"Every-man-for-himself" is a barbarous principle that humankind is gracefully evolving away from.
Greece will recover. Have you ever met a Greek who did not work hard, did not have skills, and was unable to sort out a way forward? I haven't. Groups of people might have mismanaged their economic fortunes; but then again, the wisest men on earth (tongue firmly planted in cheek), i.e. Alan Greenspan + Larry Summers + Hank Paulson (not to mention various and sundry Cheney-Bushes), failed to prevent the historically unprecedented losses of the past few years.
So it seems hardly fair to blame it all on Greek insouciance or imprudence (or worse).
The purpose of money is not to be amassed to no good end, for its own sake. The purpose of money is to be used to do good, intelligent things -- for oneself, but also for others.
Because money is supposed to circulate, and when it stops circulating, that clot of clumped up & undirected capital can give a body a stroke. Exactly in the same way your own blood can, and even within a body politic.
There is grave danger in blithely dismissing events such as those roiling Kyrgyzstan as having no relevance to other countries. People, families, households, small businesses all over the world have had, truly, quite all the stress they can take from the persistent dearth of money in circulation which has been a devastating consequence of the global financial meltdown.
That at least in Greece, and in Europe, there are signs of intelligence prevailing over shallow, parsimonious Calvinist sanctimony is a good thing. Surely the Germans who are fuming at having to dip into their own reserves realise that at least some of that intervention will flow right back into their own coffers, in the form of German cars being bought, or beer being hoisted (not to mention French champagne) as the sense of relief finally settles definitively over the shoulders not only of Greeks, but of many others who love & admire & depend on Europe -- for a variety of reasons?
Pooled resources have that great advantage of serving a positive common purpose.
At the same time, undeniably, this is a timely indication that there should not be any rush about enlarging the EU any further until such time as the global economy actually & unambiguously regains its former forward momentum.
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margaret howard wrote:
"33 democracythreat
Are you sure they are not saying under their breath:"Oh no, here he goes again, Switzerland's secret boring weapon?"
Quite possibly.
"Seriously, are you sure people want to hear your opinions over and over again?"
I'm quite sure they do not.
"Especially as you don't seen to have anything new and interesting to say on the subject. So, give other people a chance."
Here is your chance!
I've invited you to set out your ideas before, because you were wasting the opportunity and using it to insult people from a very great height.
So...... over to you, MH.
Impress me. Let us assume you have established your dominance, now let us hear you complex world view.
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Nik, I'm sad to say that with your attitude, you've got the government you deserve in your country. My many other Greek friends at least admit some fault on their (previous) government's side and I feel sorry for them too - the people who pay the bills, just like all the other European taxpayers do now for you.
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To Maria Ashot (52):
You said: "Europe's "bailout" of Greece -- a nation of 11+ million, with a significant global diaspora -- is considerably smaller than the US bailout of just AIG, an insurance company whose acronym was once decoded by insiders as meaning "America Is God."
US bailout of everything and everybody was financed by just printing more money until everything was covered.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/14/quantitative-easing-has-begun/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/18/fed-begins-quantitative-easing
In Europe the situation is different, ECB hasn't used quantitative easing, they haven't started their printing presses. Thus every Euro that Eurozone governments loan from the markets do actually come from somewhere, costs a bit and has to be paid back someday. That is the reason for why there has been so much argumentations and in-fight in regards of measures to support Greece state as everything that states will do will cost them actual money.
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viewcode, my last post inviting you to make your point was posted before your last offering was cleared by the mods.
please disregard the question, the point is well made.
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52. At 8:45pm on 12 Apr 2010, Maria Ashot wrote:
" ...
The premise of the creation of the EU and eurozone was that by aggregating resources, the sovereign states of Europe would have greater impact on the world in all areas, including the global economy, as well as global policy-making. ..."
EUpris: The British never said they wanted that sort of thing.
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50. At 8:35pm on 12 Apr 2010, viewcode wrote:
" ...
the UK, which has a whacking great democratic deficit: ..., no written constitution... "
EUpris: No written constotution is good.
Written constitution to some extent =
1) Dictatorship of the dead.
2) Dictatorship of the last lot/person who appointed the judges.
3) Dictatorship of the educationally damaged (Bildungsgeschaedigten).
4) Dictatorship of the judges.
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50. At 8:35pm on 12 Apr 2010, viewcode wrote:
" ... However, as frequently observed, the UK population are content with their method of governance and don't feel the need to change it. ... "
EUpris: I am not sure that you are right on that point. I believe I remember hearing that about 70% want a change in the voting system. The word on the street is that the British people despise the people who govern this country.
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48. At 8:12pm on 12 Apr 2010, margaret howard wrote:
" ...
Are you sure they are not saying under their breath:"Oh no, here he goes again, Switzerland's secret boring weapon?"
Seriously, are you sure people want to hear your opinions over and over again?
Especially as you don't seen to have anything new and interesting to say on the subject. So, give other people a chance."
EUpris: If you are not interested in what he says then just scroll past it. Even if he didn't want to give others a chance he wouldn't be able to stop them posting. It is not like one of those meetings where one person wants to dominate and keeps interrupting everybody else. It can't be done here. That is the beauty of it.
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52 Maria Ashot
As usual an excellent contribution. I agree with much of what you say and the eloquence with which you express it.
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democracythreat, in your post #51, you asked "...What is your point, viewcode?..."
My points were as follows:
* posts #5 and #47: "Criticising Socialist governments for tax-and-spend is inadequate since all governments do that by definition."
* post #45: "Thanks, Mathiesen. Cool, dude."
* post #46: "Labour won't bring in the Euro, 'cos it could but hasn't."
* post #50: "The EU is caused by the EU-27, not imposed on them."
Regards, viewcode
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maria-ashot: pure garbage. Can you give one example from the last 50 years where the EU has decisvely influenced anything in the world? Bailing out Greece will not result in the eurozone having greater influence in the world. Indeed, since it represents destruction of capital, and may encourage Greece and others that waste pays, it is likey to make the eurozone poorer and therefore weaker in the world.
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Re54: Before judging Greeks so easily you have to go to the root cause of this phenomenon. You might as well follow the others saying that it roots down to Ottoman Empire and the effort of Greeks to break free from it refusing to obey and other such stories but it is simply not that. It is true that corruption is widespread but it is more than true that it has been technically cultivated. Not tolerated but cultivated. I have tons of examples to prove that to you and even the personal example of my father and how he got his last position (1 to 2 ranks below his senior and marks) and how he finally retired. A medium ranking civil servant whose only corruption after 35 year of servie (and 42 years of work) had been bringing home from office a few pencils for our school.
I guess I have to pay these pencils now!
Wake up. There is nothing easier than fighting corruption in any country. You open a prison and start putting people inside. Problem is that "some" do not want this, and that is not the common people. You cannot say that it is the people that want this. It is leadership. It is always leadership. People act accordingly to what they find unless you have the tedency to blame the workers for the financial failure of a complex construction project.
When the only way to move forward is by tax evading, by stealing, by pulling strings, people will do it. In fact, "corruption" cannot even be called corruption anymore, it is the system itself. For example, take the healthcare (I just give 1 of the 100s of examples!). In US they want "private social healthcare", in Greece on paper you have public one, but then you have to pay the famous envelop to have your kid/wife/father operated, otherwise he/she may as well die. So health becomes private. You pay, you get operated, you pay more, you get operated quickly. You pay more, you get operated quickmy and in better conditions. That is how it works. It IS the system. It is simply called corruption because it is not yet written down.
Put yourself in that picture, you are a young doctor, you spent half your life studying and then you enter a public hospital after you pulled some strings. You are already approaching 40 years old and have not yet earnerd anything in your life. In 2-3 years, no matter your views, you become cynic, you start doing the same thing.
I was talking with a friend doctor. He asked me "do you know how many univestiry-professor doctors are in Berlin specialised in surgery?", I told him, I do not know "15-20?", he told me "Its actually 4-5". "Do you know how many in Thessaloniki?". I sais no, he replies "25-30". How can this be possible? Easy. Each doctor gets the title and then passes it to a relative or a friend. Then they have both positions. They do not teach, and they rarely work normally in the hospital. They just use their title to get to do the expensive operations of people that are ready to pay a fat envelop. As simple as that. These people can clear a 500,000 euros per year 95% of which will be not taxable!!!!!!! Oh, and that in a "bad year".
Now, do not think that no-one ever tried to corret things. Yes in the past a minister of health tried to correct this situation and force professors to be professors and surgeons surgeons. He was out in a matter of 2 days. Why? Cos these doctors operate half the parliament, thus the bulk of them are supporting the doctors, not the minister of health.
Same thing happened to a minister of internal affairs who commented on "... arriving at the point that we should do somethin about the oil in North Aegean". He was out of his position just 2 hours after his declaration (that he mentioned as a suggestion, not even as a measure!), it was erported to people 2 days after and linked to another minor affair (of the type "whatever"...).
So it is leadership. One may say that leadership is voted so people are responsible. Well surprise! No! They are not. No voted leadership is really voted. There is simply no option. In Greece ALL parties are 1. Not that there is any difference elsewhere. But also the 80% of media are controlled by 2-3 people. From the rest 20% the 80% is also centrally controlled to "pretend to be the free voice, but it is still the voice of the same ""system"". In fact, there is no independent media to put it bluntly. Imagine that we talk about the country that hard-line communists were installed, funded and armed by the British during WWII and where ALL subsequent left-wing people were supported by the US no matter if phenomenally fighting as-if against it. For example, in 1973, the dictator that the US had installed and who lost their favour, was deposed by an artificial revolution organised by US via its network of "leftish" and "anarchist" people. One only need to tell the story of the anarchist terrrorist group 17N (US organised and backed of course...)... to understand what is really going on.
So if even anarchists are controlled and are part of the plan, what do you want people to do? Those that are idealists remain idealists, those that would like to steal but cannot will remain like that, and those that can steal will steal. The society has all of them in the usual percentages that you find them in just any society around the world.
What is so strange about it?
Want to find out why Greece this, why Greece that?
Check out what happened to Argentina, previously one of the most rich countries in the world. This is Argentina, a huge and quite powerfull country, not a regional marionette like Greece. So imagine, if Argentina had that luck, how much luck can Greece have?
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Re54: ... and to end up once and for all your idiotic repetition of EU people paying for us I only need to tell you that Germany borrows money at a rate of 3% and it arranges so that Greece can borrow from the EU at a rate of 5%.
So Germany has simply to borrow money at 3% and sell it to Greece at a rate of 5%.
Please explain to me "where do the hard working EU people come to pay for lazy Greeks"? Where do Germans lose? Perhaps they lose because they could actually exploit more the Greeks by imposing the nearly 7% that US private firms propose. What a pity! They could do a 4% benefit, now they do only a 2%... out of thin air!
Out of thin air mate, thin air...
You seem to be a rookie in finance. Anyway, note that Germans are just mediators. They will gain something out of it. Not as a state but as bankers and corporations.
Now, if they exploit all that crisis to put more taxes to the German people and gain money out of them too, that is singlehandedly the problem of German (and other EU) people alone and has absolutely nothing to do with Greece. Start searching.
PS: By the way take a few facts of life:
1) Working people with most annual working hours = Greeks
2) Working people with highest % of EU tax = Greeks
3) Top contributors to British EU refund = Greeks
Of course Greeks are by far the biggest receivers up to now, but then 60% goes to agriculture (as-if... it is just money to keep the sector in the absence of import taxes - that is absolutely no help) which in Greece is least productive anyway (due to the geomorphology of the country). From the rest 40%, the 35% is development aid... to built Olympics stadiums, bridges in the middle of nowhere and the rest of the command lists of German large construction companies...
Do you get the pattern or not? Greek, German, French or British they fool us big time. Very big time.
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No. 55, Jukka Rohila: True enough, the bailouts granted by the US government involved massive printing of currency, ergo were in a certain sense simpler.
However: they did have a cost -- do have a cost -- because quite obviously the diluted value of the currency, and the ballooning money supply (that I recall someone saying on some financial news site is now only vaguely known in its actual volume) have had a huge impact on all concerned. In the US and also outside the US.
The most privileged members of each nation's elite have felt the least amount of discomfort. If they happened to be clients of Bernie Madoff, they got a bigger dose of distress. But for the most part, the upper crust, whatever the address, have only vicariously experienced what the rest of us are still slogging through.
In the US, Jukka, I can attest to the direct impact of the financial train wreck -- and the US Treasury bailout -- translates into such "details" as having student loans suddenly payable to the US Dept of Education via a variety of subcontractors at the usurious rate of 18.5%, instead of the previously agreed upon 6-7%.
Believe you me, writing from over here, we are paying for the damage done. The banks are largely said to have recovered -- good news, to be sure -- but the average household is at the losing end of the formula.
And nevertheless, as with Greece, it must be done. The damage done by allowing the drama to fester is greater than the damage done by acting to fix the problem. Only once the problem is fixed can one make plans to prevent any future recurrences of the malady.
Still, I do not believe it is possible to blame, with any degree of honesty, one country or one individual for having a more painful reaction to a shared set of circumstances, than another country or individual. We all know where the problem started; we all know why. To indulge in mental gymnastics aimed at determining whether it is better to be "German" or "Greek" (or any other combination) is neither clever, nor constructive, nor meaningful, nor even interesting in the end.
If we were to go around asking those kinds of questions of others, in a kind of popularity contest, who is to say we would all be happy with what we would hear?
Better just to get the business done, and move more quickly to more favourable conditions.
The only remedy for money lost is money earned. Making that money requires keeping one's health, including one's mental health. The less we obsess about money, the healthier we will be -- and the more of it we will make, recouping our losses more quickly, than if we are consumed with paroxysms of recriminations over past errors -- our own, or even someone else's.
Germany was & remains a mainstay of the European Concept. Every German needs to understand that, like everything else, that beautiful concept occasionally requires infusions of cash.
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Michael-B, re: your #44:
There are no pan-European definitions of the terms "centre-right", "liberal" (famously), "far-left", and even "eurosceptic" (you have to qualify it, e.g. "British Euroscepticism"). As a short-cut, I took the international/europarty affiliation of the country's head of government as the complexion of the government.
Nik, re: your #36:
I can beat that. Try explaining the difference between "Democratic Socialism" and "Social Democracy", "revolutionary feminism" vs. "radical feminism", "Separatism" vs. "Nationalism", "Euronationalism" vs. "Eurofederalism", "Communism" vs. "Eurocommunism", "Euroscepticism" vs. "Eurorealism" vs. "Souverainisme", "Catholic Nationalism" (Ireland) vs. "National Catholicism" (Poland), "Green" (UK) vs. "Green" (Germany) vs. "Nordic Green" (Scandinavia...probably). Then try to characterise the French Radical Party. Then (if you really want a headache) "conservative liberalism" vs. "liberal conservatism". Sometimes I'm really jealous of the Americans...
Democracythreat, re: your #56 and my #62:
Yep, we cross-posted: I posted before the mods cleared yours, you posted before the mods cleared mine. No probs.
EUprisoner209456731, re: your post #58:
We're just going to have to agree to disagree regarding the (un)desirability of a written UK constitution. Although thank you for setting out your arguments.
Regards, viewcode.
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"Sterling use to be a huge player, it is fast becoming a 'bit' player and that, in the fullness of time, will not be good enough in the markets of today."
And considering the UK has been turned into a virtual banana republic, relying on international finance for such a large chunk of it's GDP (over 10% at one point) and exports, working in a currency that is of no importance on global markets and of questionable stability is likely to hurt in the future.
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@Johan_Heuvel Re: #43
And thanks to the pressure from its EU partners, Greek government and Greek society have an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take a good look in the mirror and start serving reason and the public interest.
"The only effective remedy that remains is deflation," Strauss-Kahn told Austrian magazine profil in an interview. "And this is exactly what the European Commission has correctly recommended."
The Greeks need to become poorer and more frugal so that they don't care so much about being poorer. And that's that.
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It's a beautiful day!
The sun is shining.
The birds are singing.
The cherry blossom is blooming.
YUK! I'M IN THE "EU" !!!
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Many Commenters are in my view are "looking at the trees , and not at the wood ". Many seem to understand the finances and comfort themselves the the Eurozone countries say they can raise a sum to lend to Greece to cover the next two or three months . I have my doubts ! I think "If" they do raise the money , they may never see it again . we shall see .
I think the EU has made a big mistake in trying to create one big state of Europe . Added to that the creation of the Euro to further that end is an equally big mistake . I doubt it will ever work . After 20 years the EU has no world standing , and never will . Europe as a big unwieldy conglomerate is not stronger than the individual states . It would be much easier to defeat Europe than 27 individual states . I have often found in life , that my apparent weakness was my greatest strenght .
My Italian friend said to me ," It's the German's winning the war by peaceful means , all these years after WWII ". We didn't fight and suffer for six years to prevent that , now to have it happen through the back door . I have nothing against the Germans , my daughter is married to one and lives in Berlin . All the European countries and their people are different ; I do not believe any of them would like to have Germany call the tune for all of them .
The Eu would have worked better as a Commonwealth of nation states , each managing their own affairs . In a country like Italy , there is a vast difference between the north and south . Companies like Fiat have built factories in the south , but they fail , either because the Mafia creams off the money , or because of the ineptitude of the people .
European people are not all the same and no amount of EU grants , laws etc will make them so .
The present EU is akin to " Putting All Ones Eggs In One Basket "; If someone drops the basket all the eggs break .
It would not surprise me if Greece defaults and returns to the Drachma .
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71. At 08:31am on 13 Apr 2010, Huaimek wrote:
" ...
My Italian friend said to me ," It's the German's winning the war by peaceful means , all these years after WWII ". We didn't fight and suffer for six years to prevent that ..."
EUpris: Quite right they didn't!
The Italian airforce bombed my home town here in England.
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Predictable development
'Emigration returns to crisis-hit Greece and Ireland'
I add that moving from an EU country to an EU country is extremely easy.
Due to EU what happens in Greece affects UK directly (I am pretty sure that EUpris will be very unhappy about that). Actually from a selfish point of view UK should wish 1) no involvement of IMF (if IMF is brought costs of rescue is covered partly by UK, but Germany insisted on IMF, it is now certain that it will be included, this means cost for UK) and 2) Greece saved by her Eurozone partners and avoids massive emigration because emigration within EU will be mainly towards UK due to language and perhaps opportunities.
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I am not sure that I included the link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8616434.stm
Emigration returns to crisis-hit Greece and Ireland
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73. At 09:40am on 13 Apr 2010, vassilis wrote:
"
Predictable development
'Emigration returns to crisis-hit Greece and Ireland'
I add that moving from an EU country to an EU country is extremely easy.
Due to EU what happens in Greece affects UK directly (I am pretty sure that EUpris will be very unhappy about that ..."
EUpris: I do actually wish the Greeks well. I do not hate other Europeans. I am currently trying to learn two "EU"-languages partly through German.
I would like the UK to help Greece but not through the "EU".
We in the UK are overloaded with immigrants. Many here are concerned about a possible violent explosion. I do not want that. I do not wish to throw out the decent people we have allowed in. We cannot take a lot more.
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Re74: Vassilis, only that this time emmigration hits massively the educated masses which form a statistically very large part of the society of Greeks.
Just see for yourself (i found this quickly...):
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
Slovenia, Finland, Poland, Lithuania, then it is Greece. However, Greece has the best balance of men vs. women and the 2nd highest mens' % of higher education level. What puts Greece apart though is that all the rest are mostly small compact and homogeneous countries that have no waves of immigration or any historic community refusing to go to school (like the muslim minority of Greece). The real statistics for Greeks in particular are thus much higher. On top, contraty to the other 4 countries, Greece presents the very interesting case of the 1/3rd of Greeks having studied abroad and moved much more than Slovenians, Finish, Polish and Lithuanians. To put it bluntly, I studied in a well known British university which had around 7,000 students, 600 were Greek - i.e. nearly a 10%! And if you think that this was an exception, you certainly have not studied in Britain. There were British students there thinking we Greeks must be several 10s of millios to be able to give so many students. More than the 1/4th of Greek students have done at least a masters in Britain and half of them come from either British, French or Italian, Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian universities giving some of the most interesting multilingual multi-background profiles out there!
In general, these people will be very welcome in Britain, France and Germany (not by people but by corporations) cos they will get cheaper personnel for those jobs and lower the anyway already lowering salaries of positins.
So why would they mind? 1/3rd of Greek students has studied abroad, very often in top institutions and with top grades. They are very open to the world, they are bilingual in English and very often they master a second foreign language, French, German, Spanish etc. (I speak 2, English and French and 0,1 of Spanish and consider myself half-illiterate, my brother masters 3 and learns his 4th). They adapt easily and given their situaiton they will be extremely flexible.
Make a repeat for the Irish. Everyone is happy. No European state will sweat over that.
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Re71: Huaimek, before returning to the drachma, in an ideal world, where leaders served first their national interests (which does not happen in the real world - one must be extremely naif to believe in something like that!), the Greek prime minister (I mean a Greek one, not the American Papandreou), would do nothing like getting Greece out of the Euro. In fact he would not care at all, he would get on with his work, breaking every possible EU policy and refusing to pay any penalty to the EU until the EU decides to kick Greece out, which would cost EU much more than keeping Greece inside. In the case of Greece being kicked out the EU will rush to US to try and create even military trouble against Greece so Greece would simply have to give a base to Russians and arm the country with a combination of good-old Soviet material that works (and is not sensitive to some magical desactivation wave signals...) and a state of the art S-400 missiles that would be placed on very island, inside every mountain and ship. At the same time, the country would re-bult with Russian money its ship construction industry which should be provided just nicely with Ukrainian steel and Russian gas. As a cherry on top of the cake, there would be the extraction of oil of the Aegean. And if that would not be enough, leasing a port or two ot the Chinese would do the job just fine.
It is afterall a small country it does not need a lot to turn the tables downside up.
But all that in an ideal world. In the real world that should had been done in the 1910s or the 1930s or the 1950s. Now as it is, Greece does not stand a chance being trapped in a spiral from which it can escape only if things internationally turn upside down.
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#71
@Huaimek and when you find out tha you are wrong will you be happy to all also inform us all about it?
you seem to think that somehow south Italians have some form of a disease that makes Fiat in their region unprofitable, well you are wrong, we have the same problem here in the UK with companies closing factories in the north of England. So we have a situation here in England identical to the one in Italy, I could not even dream about accusing my fellow North Englanders of ineptitude or creaming off money, how can you make such ridiculous statements and then look yourself in the mirror? As you seem to be an openminded kind of person, I hope your rethink your ideas.
The Euro is the best idea that ever came out of the EU, I hope that petty national interest don't ruin it. I hope we here in the UK join it and the rest of the EU join it. Although as Gavin Hewitt said in this report some aspects of it need to be addressed.
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77. At 12:48pm on 13 Apr 2010, Nik wrote:
" ...
extraction of oil of the Aegean.
..."
EUpris: Is there oil under the Aegean? If so, why is it not being extracted now?
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Re78: Correct Chris. I am wondering how easily people jump on those assumptions that some people are inept in doing this or the other. At least they should explain us the exact root cause and if it is... genetic then they should explain to us when the change happens. Cos 1000 years back Germans were the prime example of barbarity, lack of organisation, lack of progressiveness and were just finished off with practices like cannibalism (no I am not kidding, there was widespread cannibalism up to 1000 A.D.). So when did this change happen?
On the other hand Chris this is a two way round, it is not only the ones that believe that they are better cos they found themselves in a better condition currently (see French 200 years back, British & Germans 100 years back, Americans up ot today etc.), but it is also the ones that believe themselves that they are incapable and examples range from Japanese of the mid-19th century (where themselves wondered if their problem was... genetic and that they should intermarry with Europeans to save their country from underdevelopment!!!) to Africans of today.
Us Greeks believe the same thing: "we are not for organisation, we are not for discipline, these things are for the Germans.. yet it was largely the Greeks running the Byzantine Empire and it was thanx to them that this Empire has been the first modern state (a state organisation to be seen again only in late 19th, early 20th century westenr states). Greek discipline? Spartan or Macedonian armies were not enough for any discipline-lover? Or where Athenians or Thebans any undisciplined ones?
The truth is that whether a region or a state will be successful into its organisation and its businesses is dependent on a very very large number of reasons and less than half of them have to do directly with the region or the country. If it was up to the people then you would have a very rich France a very poor Germany, a Very rich Hungary, a Very poor Romania, a very rich Bulgaria, a very poor Greece, a very rich Turkey, a very poor Iraq, a very rich Iran and so one... i.e. poverty and riches would come randomly across the globe... instead what we see is that there are geographical epicenters and the more far you go the more poor regions become. South Italy has simply nothing to attract investments. If you implant a plant out of nowhere without suppliers nearby and all the necessary infrastructure, it is bound to fail even in the medium run.
Still people just love this overgeneralisations. Oh, and Europe is indeed nothing special, you should go to Asia & Africa to listen what they have to say.
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However, the above does not mean that the differential in societal organisation does not lead to different "lifestyles". It is not a secret that Greeks much prefer informal organisational schemes that suit more their volatile behaviour while Germans like to put clear lines in their structure. That does not mean that Greeks and Germans are born to follow these lines but certainly grown ups are statistically prone to follow these lines. One that wants to see changes in both of them, will have to wait at least 3 generations which is the minimum for a considerable change in stereotypical behaviour.
Greek businessmen back in the early 20th century had made quite a name for being acute businessmen working a lot, quitely, and without much self-boasting managing to win over British and German large corporations trying to invest in the Middle East. 100 years later, Greeks are known more as self-boasting, bad businessmen that talk more and work less and who make money only through playing behind the scenes. Did Greece change its people? No. The current ones are the great-grandchildren of those of late 19th early 20th century ones. But things have changed. Back then Greeks were all over the Eastern Mediterranean trying to shape their own future. Today, they are in their micro-cosmos of little Greece trying to make money by cannibalising the Greek state. On the other hand, Greek emigrés at US, Canada, Australia present an image more close to that of those forefathers. Why? Aren't they the same people? Same, yes, but conditions thus different evolution.
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Greece and the Euro have dodged the bullet for the moment.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8617017.stm
At least some people in the market are betting that Greece won't default in the short term. Others like PIMCO aren't so confident. Who bought the bonds? Hard to say but maybe those who have a vested interest in the Euro's survival. They are simply trying to improve the odds on much larger bets made before the crisis broke. Greece is far from out of the woods and there are still the other PIIGS to go ahead for the Euro. Minefields like these are littered with dead bodies of investors who bet wrong. I for one would not buy those bonds. Far too risky. BTW, in days of old around 1990-1991 Greece was paying 24% per year on Greek government secured Drachma bonds and devaluing its currency by exactly that amount effectively using foreign investor money for free. An attorney who worked for me bragged to me when he bought them....and had an expression of discust when I asked him a few years later how he'd made out on them. Unless and until there is a radical change in Greece, I think it is a lost cause.
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Re79: Yes, our tongue has gone blue trying to shout this! There is oil in all the region from eastern South Italy down to Iraq found in several large spots. Italy already exploits its own (which is not as big as the one found in Greece).
There are several fields in both the Ionian sea (the continuation of the Italian fields) and the Aegean sea, but the largest concentration is in the north Aegean and these are the most easy to exploit. Only a single field southeast of the (extremely beautiful) island of Thasos is said to have a quantity that alone could turn upside down things - ... if the revenu passes from the state and doed not end up "elsewhere"...
This is no joke, nor it is a "wannabe case". Everyone knows about it. Greece's reserves were known since at least the 1920s though I wonder how can I say so, when oil is almost as near surface as in Saoudi Arabia with ancient philosopher Aristotelis noting that "... the locals of eastern Macedonia are using that tar-like earth liquid substance for lighting, heating and other purposes though the smell is not quite bad". A first effort was done in the late 1930s by the independent semi-dictator PM Metaxas but was interrupted in the WWII. Germans would be intereste but they had not the means and the time to do something. However, one has to note that they refused to give Macedonia to Bulgarians (their constant demand!) and gave them only Thrace, for the obvious reason that the oil is just south of Macedonia.
... now start thinking why Tito wanted so desperately to occupy Macedonia (and thus he named the southern region of Jugoslavia, recently stolen from Bulgaria through war, as "Macedonia", in 1945). One was the access to Aegean, second was the oil.
Today US used this artificial Tito's creation, "FYROM", as pressure to Greece so as not to do any mistake and start extraciton on its own or with any other player (e.g. European companies) without prior US "go-ahead". A large part of the Turkish aggressiveness in the Aegean is the oil too - and note tha most Turkish air-space violations are occuring in the north Aegean (open google maps and see where the island of Thasos is to understand the extense of Turkish aggressiveness...).
EUprisoner, that is a big question:
We Greeks, invite any nice European company to come, work with us and share the profit 50-50%. We can repay in a year all loans and correct the economy even without doing any fundamendal change (that is desperately needed anyway, no question on that!).
Now ask yourself, what poses the
One will say "eh! perhaps the oil does not exist! Or is difficult to extract! Or it is not much"...
... yes we have heard that so often... (you know the sour grapes story... when we do not reach the vinetree, we conclude that the grapes are anyway sour...). Problem is that big or small, there is a quantity to exploit easily. Problem is that all politicians that proposed something on it are out. Last was the previous' governement internal affairs minister. He mentioned "things are so bad, that we should start thinking of drilling and whatever happens happens....". He lost his job in a matter of 2 hours after his declaration. Most intriguiing is the "whatever happans" possibility. I think it should be more than clear for you to understand.
PS: Note also that during negotiations for the Russian gas, Russians had proposed to Greeks to lease them some space so they build an industrial port: guess where? Just outside Kavala city. See the city in the google map... you will understand.
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No. 57, EUprisoner: Understood that the British voter has never been given a referendum.
My opinion, as one who votes in the US, not (alas) in the UK (maybe someday, who knows?): The United Kingdom is A Very Special Place. Its geography, history, culture & experience -- not to mention inclinations -- set it apart from everyone else, including other Europeans.
Because, of course, you are Europeans. And so are Russians.
How you negotiate your exact place within the EU context is very much in the hands of those alive & voting in the UK today. So please vote your conscience.
And remember, no matter what the outcome, There Will Always Be an England. Promise!
The world could not carry on if it were missing, An England -- or A Brasil, or An Ethiopia... or A Europe.
Don't feel imprisoned. Actual imprisonment by totalitarian systems is far, far worse: ask any Eastern European! Work to make what you believe in come about.
But the EU could not possibly be Europe without Greece. And we owe the Hellenes our very Civilisation. So no need to begrudge them a helping hand on their rainy day -- just hope you never have one of your own! And if you do, may there be someone as generous and wise standing by to assist.
No. 61, Margaret Howard. Thank you. And I do reciprocate.
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Nik, when you say "kick America out" and invite Russia in..don't you really mean "kick Americans out and invite China or India or Brazil in?"
Remember the acronym BRIC--Brazil, Russia, China, India--club of up and coming.
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@82 MarcusAureliusII wrote: "Greece and the Euro have dodged the bullet for the moment."
-----------------------------
'For the moment' being the operative words. That sale was a drop in the ocean. The article says they raised 1.5bn euros, but need 11bn by the end of May alone to stay afloat.
Beyond the immediate danger, once the need for extra borrowing in order to stave off bankruptcy subsides, there is then the question of whether the Greek economy can ever support such relatively large debt levels.
There doesn't seem to be precise information yet as to what extent the IMF is propping up the euro. Perhaps EU pride is getting in the way of confession.
The euro is a failing project on its way out. It was the triumph of symbolism over pragmatism - of outdated 1950s grand-centralist ideology over democracy and, like all manifestations of 'block safety' theories from recent decades, it foundered on the increased importance of flexiblity in the fast-moving 21st century.
I think that's how the history books will go ;)
As Gavin has said in a previous post, it's hard to find one single serious economist who thinks the euro can work to the benefit of its members without a central EU fiscal government. Incidentally, what euro-critics have always said. But how soon do we think national governments are likely to give up their ability to tax and spend? Given the current election debate here, if we took tax and spend out of the equation, what would be the remaining point of national government at all?
If the euro can't work at a fundamental economic level (nevermind the 'how easy it is to go on holiday / saves a few quid on transaction costs' trivia), then we're clearly better off out.
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"Michael-B, re: your #44:
There are no pan-European definitions of the terms "centre-right", "liberal" (famously), "far-left", and even "eurosceptic" (you have to qualify it, e.g. "British Euroscepticism"). As a short-cut, I took the international/europarty affiliation of the country's head of government as the complexion of the government." - viewcode
So what was that all about then? You took a 'short-cut' to tell someone else he didn't know what the heck he was talking about, and then a few posts later you're saying that things have to be put in context, qualified...because there isn't an EU norm.
Strangely enough, I thought that was the point I made above, about what's considered normal on 'Planet Flanders', and how different it would be perceived in the UK...
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Nik, by the way, as an idea of coming into some oil money.
Belorussia stroke a deal with Venezuella (the road was paved :o) of bringing, by sea, to Odessa, Venezuella oil tankers, then by train to Belorussia, then they will re-sell it to the EU at a profit (themselves they don't need nil. Covered.)
80,000 tons trial shipment arrives in May; 4 million tons to be re-sold to the EU through to the end of 2010.
Greece needs some activity done beyond may be. See, it is possible, good old mediators' profit.
Besides :o)))) why is it nearer to the EU market Odessa-Minsk-the EU? :o)))) There is some water way, direct :o))), I would think. :o))))
Black Sea. Or, as Crimea taught us to say - "Pont Evksinsky" :o))))
Isn't it?
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To Maria Ashot (85)
You said: "But the EU could not possibly be Europe without Greece. And we owe the Hellenes our very Civilisation. So no need to begrudge them a helping hand on their rainy day -- just hope you never have one of your own! And if you do, may there be someone as generous and wise standing by to assist."
Ahem, at least in my school classes it was taught that the western civilization spans from the ancient Rome, not from Greece. The Romans were the one who conquered Greece and most of the known world, took everything that was good and incorporated to their culture, they were the builders of an civilization that still can be seen from the collective images of the western civilization.
Actually one could speculate that it isn't entirely sudden that the predecessor of the EU, the European Coal and Steel Community was formed with the Treaty of Rome to create an ever closer union, Rome emphasizing the European heritage, legacy and model for the future.
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"democracythreat...It may surprise you to know that I agree with almost every word of your two posts #40 and #41."
After reading posts #40 and #41 I have the feeling here that it's a case of 'red' pill, 'blue' pill...or someone just forgetting to take any pills at all. Both the rabbit holes seem equally deep...
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To Jukka Rohila (90)
I don't think we owe Greeks anythings for our very Civilisation, however either you didn't pay attention at your school classes or perhaps you were taught a very strange version of history :)
Western civilisation ideas & thinking all came from ancient Greece, from the concept of what is wrong & what is right, law, arts, etc. Now the fact that they didn't copyright all those things is their problem and not mine, so we don't owe them a thing, however our civilisation is based on their thinking, lets not try to change history in the name of national economics now :)
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Greek philosophers were way too peaceful for Jukka's taste I suspect :o)), poetry, that kind of crap :o)))))
He's more enchanted with the iron step, you know, gear metal clank :o))).
A matter of clothing. Tastes differ.
Can you imagine Jukks in a chiton?
That's why. He gives to the ancient Greece, eh, how to say, thumbs down :o)))
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@90 Jukka Rohila
Not much of an education I am afraid. (disclaimer: modern Greece should get not much credit for ancient Greece, it is the exact opposite, but it is a pity ancient Greece not to get the credit it deserves because of whatever justified or unjustified views on the modern Greeks).
Jukka, your views on WWII, terrorism against Russians, history are really 'interesting'...
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no, no, vassilis, please, NOT "interesting" :o)))))
I've got enough barbarians on hands currently in the blog as it is :o)))
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Maria Ashot;
"The United Kingdom is A Very Special Place. Its geography, history, culture & experience"
If "your thing is" dressing up like kings, queens, dukes, dutchesses, earls, lords, ladies and the like, and pretend it is the sixteenth or seventeenth century, don't forget to include some of the less pleasant aspects of it...like bubonic plague. Perhaps you'll get lucky one day and take in a public beheading or two. Hey Alice, want to catch the matinee'? I hear there's going to be a double hanging :-)
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#78 Chris Arta
It is ridiculous to compare the industrial north of England , with rural , mountain and coastal southern Italy . There is no comparison , even if factories close in northern England . You perhaps have not heard of the Northern League Party in Italy , that would like to cut Italy in half , abandoning the south to its own devices . It is the attitude of mind that differs ; northern Englanders are happy to work if there is a job available ; southern Italians enjoy a simple life in semi poverty , and are not fussed to work too hard or change their way of life .
I have to say , that your view of Europe is that of one who goes on holiday there . People who go on holiday , even a long one , or stay part of the year ; never get into the Nitty Gritty of the country they are in , the politics , systems that don't work , the attitude and mentality of the people . When you holiday in a foreign country you may marvel at their different exciting food ; after you have lived there a while you find yourself reverting to the food you grew up with . I know from experience ; I can cook Italian as well or better than Italians do ; in Thailand I can cook Thai ; but in both countries I have included a lot of English cooking too .
Perhaps you could explain why the Euro is the best Idea that came out of the EU ? You should thank your lucky stars that Britain doesn't have the Euro ! As I see your view of the EU , it is as the text book or original dream . If the original six had completely unified in the 1950s or 60s it might have worked .
#90 Jukka Rohila
As I understand , the Roman civilization was based directly on the Greek civilization .
#85 Maria Arshot
" The EU could not possibly be Europe without Greece ".
The EU is not Europe , it is the EUSSR a dictatorship , run by a vast unacountable bureaucracy . Greece is part of Europe , even if it had to ,or chose to leave the EU .
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Re97: You cannot judge southern Italians as people that "do not like to work". The fact that people have an aversion to working as servants 08.00 to 17.00 because others want it is not a justificaiton for saying "poeple do not like to work". If for South Italians, cultivating their land and minding their own little businesses there is enough to keep them happy, then they are the best, not the North Italians.
You have to understand that to have the work ethic you refer to, there has to be a full framework. And above all there has to be a massive collection of land to the hands of the few, something which in South Italy is not the case as (just like in Greece) the land still belongs to a lot of people, divided in small plots. In 19th century Britain became the first industrialised nation by having re-distributed the land massing it up in the hands of the few creating a massive mass of landless people that would join the factories as workers. Their life of course was much more misearable than when they were land owners of small plots of land.
South Italy resembles many parts of Greece in that sense. And I guess a lot seems to be the apparences. People seem lazy and frivolous sitting around the cafes and talking nonsense. They are not: these are simply the massively jobless people. When they will join the workforce they will be the most hard working (Greek people top the list of most long working hours among western countries including US, let alone EU... they compare more to countries like China or India...). Why? Because vacations are average, they do work hidden hours and then of course they do often keep a second job since the first does not render enough. Now, here note that Greeks like South Italians are people that love life, and are extra extrovert and thus the last thing they want is to show they miserable and they spend all their life working like slaves. Thus even if they work a lot, the little time they are free they will show an image of a person that is relaxed and has an "easy-life" and get what he wants easily. Why do they do that? Matter of image? Maybe. Lack of pride in work maybe? Maybe, but then one should question what are those jobs that can given them there pride in their work apart their own little businesses? To put it bluntly even in Hamburg, a worker in a lowly paid job will not speak much of it with pride, isn't it? So you have really to dig deeper to see below the surface. So not only their work does not render enough but it is also badly organised and not at all productive. Why? Big question. It is not the people it is the matter of correct framework. In South Italy (and in Greece, but in a different manner), there is the rule of local powerfull families that want to maintain things as they are. Cosa Nostra = our scope (our own little interests). Not the best way to develop a successful economy especially inside Italy where the highly industrialised north has absolutely no interest in developing the South? Why should they anyway? Lets not forget that capital has not as a target to spread development but to concentrate investments as this is more payback-intensive.
Funnily, if north Italy wishes to get autonomous or independent that will be quite beneficial for south Italy. Mafias will become officially the governing body of South Italy and from there on having full political control their interest will be of course to advance their territory.
Even more funnily - and while I do not wish anything like that for Italians (they are 1 nation of course) - the development of South Italy as an independent state would be actually beneficial for all Mediterranean as it may possibly re-open the ancient trade routes of Middle East/Black Sea to Greece to Egypt to South Italy, to Libya, to south France and Spain etc.
You just cannot imagine what repercussion that could have.
In anyway, if North Italians kick out South Italians (something that won't happen), we Greeks should move in to have talks with South Italians and arrange our Cosa Nostra (our scope), i.e. start working together on how to manage the Mediterranean to our own interests.
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Re90: Jukka... Rome itself is a Greek word. Half the Roman nobility bore ancient Dorian sirnames. Up to the 5th century B.C. their first language was Greek. After 5th century, as the bulk of plebeians were the surrounding Italic tribes and since increasingly Italic families enterred in patricia nclass, they adopted Latin but remained always bilingual in Greek. They had the same Gods and similar customs. When they conquered Greece (i.e. the 20% of it as apart Epirus, Macedonia & Corinth the rest 80% including all shipping powers like Rhodes, Pergamon and Athens were allied to Romans!) these patricians sold themselves as descendants of Greeks and that is what they repeated in Olympia to justify their entry in Olympics, they enterred... as a Greek city! In the same context later on medieval Greeks would view themselves as "descendants of Greeks & Romans" mainting the difference only as a mention that they were successor to the Roman state, i.e. being the Roman state itself.
You have to understand that the line from western Minor Asian to South Italy was a natural continuum of cultures and people. There is nothing that links Romans to western Europeans other than the fact that western Europeans got conquered by them and much later based their own states and their culture on the heritage of Rome. But in civilisational terms Romans were just part of the Hellenistic world, in fact they had been part of it even in archaic times at the time where patricians learnt Greek as a first language.
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#98 Nik
You've said it all !
The hardworking south Italians go to the north to work in the factories of Milan and other cities . Those that stay at home , don't seek that kind of prosperity . I am not saying that people are lazy , but they are not excited to work in a factory , for more money . Yes , the Mafia are best at running southern Italy . After WWII in many areas big landed estates were requisitioned and divided into small farms of 10 or 20 hectares with a house prvided . Such a small farm could not support a family , many or most of the farms have been abandoned and the families went to work in the north or Germany . Farms of less than a certain size do not flourish and people remain very poor or leave the land .
At the time of the British Industrial revolution ; it wasn't a case of just landless people leaving to work in the factories , farmers did too , farming gave a poor living , if good lifestyle . In Britain most of the land belonged to big landowners . My father had 5000 acres , 20 farms and many cottages . All the people who lived on the estate were very well looked after , the doctor called and paid for , wood or coal supplied , water , and all maintainance of farmhouse , barns or cottages . I know people didn't like the feudal system ; but actually the country people were better off than if they had been independent . In many countries land has to be divided equally among children ; the farms eventually become so small they are unviable .
I wonder that Greece doesn't have its own Mafia !
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Once upon a time in evening hour
Patricians gathered round their Capitolium
Share the news and ? tra-la-la-la?
Drink a bit of alcoholium :o))))))
You can not, really, talk the talks , while in a sober state
Mark, Patrician, eh ? tra la la la
He drank nectar in large doses
And got awful over-nectarized :o))))))
? ( complained to others about his wife)
..."in other words, she's raging at home like a furia,
encouraged by his sister!"
I shall leave her the house in Persia!
Hey, somebody, pour me a double! again! :o)))))
It has come up, at home, that slaves - giggle in my face!
Arrgh I wish I could go to a war.
But there isn't one!
:o)))))
?
let her take her sister with, maegera-chka (the mean goddess)
And then, for daddy's sestertia
I shall get myself a haetera-chka :o))))
With haetera - let it be, all's more ? visisble
But , at least, these are not totally mad yet!
:o))))
With haetera - let it be, all is more ? ddepraved
But, at least, their all realtivves are dead!
:o))))
There, I will manage to cure myself,
Get out of this ? alcoholism fix :o)))
...
And there went to their homes the Patricians,
Jealous with the drunk Mark. :o(
With
hey, somebody
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Re100: Huaimek... hehe what is in a word? Mafia? Greece is ruled by 15-20 big families too. Papandreou and Karamanlis are names you hear since 1935. What is in a name?
Italy and Greece had very different backgrounds. Italians lived in independent and inter-competing states. Greeks got liberated gradually from the Ottoman Empire but they managed to do so only at the 50% of their territories - they got genocided and kicked out from the rest with the 1/3 of their population emigrating around the world while another 1/5th dying in consecutive wars, genocides, famines etc.
In that process, few Greeks are really local but all are of mixed backgrounds eg. I trace my origins from western Macedonia and Eastern Thrace (I am da best! no kidding North Greece was historically the best part of European Hellenism for the last 2300 years i.e. after the ascencion of Philip...). Hence, having traditional local families just like in South Italy, was not that much the case. On those locations where you had it (like western Crete and southeastern Peloponese), we are talking about the very localised rule of some local families with no effective power outside their villages. However, what had happaned is that during the independence, in south Greece, all local big names enterred in the political life early on, so that you would not talk about mafias but about political families. You will notice that in Greece most politicians come from multiple generations. They are mafias of course. Papandreou is the third Papandreou prime minister: grandfather, father, son over 60 years period. Note though that the Papandreou are a mixed family of really not much Greek blood - and it is not just being racist there, that is something that plays 100% role in their policies: their lot sees themselves as "citizens of the world", they see Greece as a colony rather than as their country. Karamanlis, the same, uncle and nephew. Mitsotakis father, then his daughter. Pangkalos grandpa general and dictator, father Nazi-collaborator and him socialist, now saying bad things about Germans (him that got raised with German milk, when 1 million Greeks were dying...).
If these people are not a mafia then what they are. Just in the case of South Italy mafia organised as a resistance to the state, controlled by Northern Italian industrialists imposing things on their rule. In Greece, mafia organised as the state itself. You cannot live without them, political parties own the lifes of more than 70% of the citizens as much as mafias own the 1/2nd of businesses of South Italy.
Of course you will notice that the mafia is a criminal organisation. But so are these families in Greece! In fact much more criminal! The fact that they have the coating of "politics" says nothing to their criminal nature. You know, in some aspects, Mafia in South Italy can be a protective layer too. Families in Greece are the exact opposite. They are installed in power and their only target is to remain there as long as possible even if that means selling off the 80% of the state - if there is enough remaining for them to remain on top of something they will do it!
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#102 Nik
I am simply fascinated reading your potted history of Greece and her Mafia who run the country to their own benefit . Without your telling , other people would have NO idea of the political complications Greece has to endure .
I live in Thailand , where similarly the country is controlled by a few very rich families who have a finger in every pie . I have likened Thailand to Italy in its political structure and corruption at every level of society ; but Greece may be a nearer comparison . The government here speaks of the rule of law , but it is just words on a piece of paper , there is no rule of law . The most advantaged by corruption are the very rich , politicians , military and police .
You may have seen the Red Shirt demonstrations in Bangkok . The people of the north and northeast have been abandoned to subsistence farm and live on or below the breadline . Thaksin was the first politician to recognize their plight and provide government money to help . As a consequence the people voted for him , giving a landslide victory . Now the people realise they can choose the government in any election .
Our chosen government was disbanded and the Democrat party appointed in its place . The people of the north and northeast have decided it is time for another general election .
You express Greece's plight very well !
I have visited Greece once in 1990 for two weeks sailing in the Ciclades Islands with my son . It was a most memorable holiday , exciting sailing , the Islands so beautiful and the people so kind and friendly . No matter what , I am with Greece and hope that all the financial problems can be resolved .
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I agree with points 52 and 61. Sometime ago on a similar thread - I was sorely cricitised - in putting forward the notion that all Merkel´s postering was to appease a German electorate. That this grass-roots response was an emotional one - underpinned by the prevalent cultural context - a generalisation so apols to all those non-conforming individuals. I anticipated that Merkel would indeed agree to a bail-out - but that it had to be dressed-up for her electorate. I reckon (give or take) a 6 - 7 billion bill for the German taxpayers??? What do you reckon has she´s done enough window-dressing?
I reckon so - the Bild Zeitung (in my area) were talking about Calories today not Euros - a blunt intrument but still like its UK equiv the politicians take care not to upset it too much!
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Huaimek, yes I have seen about Thailand and the recent events with Thaksin, however I admit having only a vague knowledge. Yet, I know that Thailand - known in Europe mostly for its touristic industries (and some darker sides of it...) - is actually a country that develops rapiddly and already Thai people are enterring on the cutting edge in several sectors. I guess Thailand must enter somehow in the geopolitical game between India and China - I do not know if you have heard it but Chinese aim at increasing their control over the Indian ocean and funnily US has no problem with it, on the contrary, following the Mumbai attacks they invited Chinese and Japanese to "increase patrols" in the Indian ocean for "piracy". I guess we found this new excuse next to terrorism... piracy. Aee Aee captain and the rest! I guess Thailand gets somehow in the middle, it is not a small country, nor a minor player in the area. Wish them well, they have to be vigilant and not rush on anything it is dropped at them.
As for Greece, well things are really really bad. And while I had for years some hidden fears in relation to what was going on in early 90s, I see them being realised now before my eyes. And I hope I am wrong. But we will see worse in Greece. The financial failure is the least, I am talking about trouble and deaths...
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... and one has to note that it won't be that the trouble will arise as a result of the financial trouble...oh no! Actually the financial trouble was technically achieved to create the trouble. That is the idea.
People do not even dare to imagine what games can be played on their backs. And when you reveal them to them, they turn off, shut off, close eyes, refuse to believe. It cannot be true. Conspiracy theory. Not possible.
Well I am afraid it is possible. And it is much easier than people want to believe.
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Michael-B, re your post #88
You said "...So what was that all about then? You took a 'short-cut' to tell someone else he didn't know what the heck he was talking about, and then a few posts later you're saying that things have to be put in context, qualified...because there isn't an EU norm..."
You may be under the impression that I was using some kind of EU-sanctioned political definition. I was not. However, regardless of whether you were or were not, you miss the point of what I was saying. I'll try to explain as follows.
There are contributors on these boards from many different countries. Each use words such as "liberal" or "socialist", but they use them in the manner common to their country. This can cause problems - famously, the US usage of the word "liberal" is the exact opposite of the New Zealand usage.
So far we both agree.
Where we part company (if I understand you correctly) is that you are content to let it lie there: this is a quirk we have to live with. I respectfully disagree.
Most European political parties belong to some kind of international umbrella group: from memory, "Liberal International", "Centrist Democrat International", etc. European political parties also belong to things called "Europarties" - for example, the UK Labour party belongs to the europarty called the "Party of European Socialists". These international/europarty affiliations, however tentatively, constitute internationally-agreed yardsticks - i.e. we can use those affiliations to characterise parties from different countries even if political terms differ in those countries.
By using these internationally-agreed yardsticks, I was attempting to explain to democracythreat that his characterization of European governments as Socialist was inaccurate.
I hope that answers your possibly-rhetorical question.
Regards, viewcode.
PS: I was dealing with the national governments, so if your term "Planet Flanders" was a humorous reference to the EU, it was a non sequitur
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Viewcode
Ty for the link to WWZ
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David, re your post#108
No probs.
Regards, viewcode
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I really do not understand why German citizens might complain about this. If Greece asks for this help Germany can simply borrow this money with 3% interest and lent it to Greece with 5% and make a nice profit.
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Re110: Niko... we have said this 100s times. It is all a farce. Germans are into the intra-EU corruption up to their necks and are cynical about it. Do not blame the average little German, they have rarely argued with what their leaders say, if they say "Greece ask us money so we tax you" they will believe it even if it is such an obvious and blatant lie - afterall it is just so easy to believe such an easy lie. In the same way Greek citizens are also lied and they fall in the trap, so no need to blame the German citizens for being naif...
You should refer to the "Blame it on the Germans" thread on my messages 210 and following where I analyse using BBC statistics the reality. You have to be Greek I guess so you will be suprised to know how much you are being fooled.
... did you know that you as a Greek citizen you are by far the largest contributor to the EU? Your EU tax as a % of your earnings is nearly 3 times larger than Britain's and nearly 2 times larger than Germany's equivalents. I.e. just to get the idea, for every 100 euros of earnings a British pays 3, a Germand 5 and a Greek 8 cents.
Forget about trying to convince the world of the obvious, the world will believe what it is being fed and what it is most easy and comfortable to believe. Bashing little countries like Greece is a favourite pastime for many.
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Tonight the alarm has been raised concerning the Greek economy. EU and IMF are in Athens, Greece is apperently not capable of coping with the problem.
In the meantime the estimation of the German obligation, the largest, has been raised from 8 to 18 billions! I can assure our Greek contributors that Germany would be happy to keep these money.
It is once again too early to say where it will end, but as I have written now several times: The money comes with some heavy political demands. I think we all know now, what the reaction in Athens will be, but it will be the hard therapy.
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Mathiasen, the problem is even bigger than what they say. But it has been nearly as big as it is for more than 10 years now. It simply went on that way.
Germans will not give these 8 to 18 billions as a present. They will lent it. They will borrow at 3% and lent at 5% to Greeks gaining 2% out of say 10 billion, i.e. 200,000,000 euros out of thin air. German citizens should be jumping up with happyness...
... only that not only they won't see that easy gained money going anywhere near their pockets but Merkel has already sold to them all that as a costly process thus Germans will have to pay the burden...
... with one bullet two birds... people are so naif!
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#133
The Germans do not see this as a business, and there are plenty of signs to tell you that it is NOT a business. It is indeed about time you find out why.
You don't call in the Euro zone countries to crisis talking because of a business. You don't ask IMF to participate in that business.
German taxpayers have no interest in paying for Greek deficits that is the first reason why you pay 2% more. The reason you don’t pay +4% more in the international market is, that you share the currency with the rest of the Euro zone, and Greece is endangering this currency. It should be clear now that Greece is considered an unreliable debtor, which has great problems in making incomes. There is a great risk that Germany and the rest of the creditors will never get its money back. They would prefer to keep their money no matter what the interest rate is.
Secondly: Neither Germans nor any of the other potential creditors want to give in particular Berlusconi in Italy the impression that Italy, which is an economy in quite another scale than Greece, can go on with its deficits and have it financed by other tax payers in the Euro zone.
Thirdly: Greece will be deprived the control of its budget. The creditors will control it, and contrary to the wish of the creditors Greece will be a kind of colony. The therapy will be harsh and within two weeks we will have demonstrations in Greece against the creditors. We are lucky if we can avoid the violence we have seen so many times in Greek politics.
Chancellor Merkel will repeat her wish for a mechanism of expulsion in the Euro zone. Treaty changes are not welcome, but they will be discussed in the entire union. Therefore there are a lot of reasons, why we all wish Greece would not need to lend money, and why we indeed would be happy not to make this “business”.
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Mathiasen yes I agree with you. Above I stated the linear thinking: Germans borrow at 3%, if they lend Greeks at 5% they simply gain 2% out of thin air. Of course, this event has other repercussions for EU economies that "come indirectly" via the common currency and "affect directly" the EU economies. So one wonders, how about Greece pretty much the same bleak picture back in late 1990s and EU pushing it to undertake the Olympics (the most expensive one in history of modern Olympics...) getting more indebted to built what, wrestling stadiums and terraformed channels for boat races? Ok, said the EU did not work well on that, they should both not permit Greece to do the Olympics and not let it join the euro before sorting out the finances. But Germans are really the last to moan now since they are the ones that pushed for all these fiestas, pharaonic (for Greece's size) projects and for joining the euro having profited largely out of it. And I really have a hard time to see how Germans will lose apart the case of the euro being hit from above if countries of the size of Italy and Spain are, gghhhmmm discussed inside American private investing companies and euro suffering an attack as you said of course is an existing and serious threat.
True that the best way to come out of all that mess is for Greeks to make the necessary steps and sacrifices to improve a bit their image.
But there are out there measures that can be done instantly and which do not even need to touch really the working people: 80% of corruption can simply stop overnight if there is political will. Energy can be bought from Russia, not the Saoudis. Ports and other infrastructure can be leased to Chinese - and so on... But see, these things are exactly the things Europeans do not wish to see. Hence, better with the utterly corrupt and immoral Papandreou on top fighting to close even the last of activities in the country and letting Greeks sell of their land to pay, that was the idea since the beginning anyway. That is the idea of money-lending... it is not to take money back but ressources and/or land. Unfortunately Greece has come to that point, several Latin American countries have passed from there.
Do not worry about demonstrations in Greece. They are all remote controlled. You only have to see the trend: when ND party hits with a kitchen knife, syndicates grab swords and rush to the streets, when PASOK party hits with a sword, syndicated grab swiss knifes and open the nail cutter and get out on the streets just to remind that they are there... Attention: syndicates are largely controlled by PASOK party but not wholly, in fact all three, ND, PASOK and syndicates as well as the other 2 leftish (KKE, SYRIZA)& 1 right wing (LAOS) main parties have the same root... the same and the same again 15-20 big families that rule the country since WWII. Hence it is a matter of being "No, it is not John, it is Johny".
Demonstrations are not really as violent as you see. Normally you can sit on the same street and drink coffee. Most demonstrators are extremely politically motivated rich young people and have nothign to do with the working class. They are the Greek equivalent of the May 69's "gauche caviar" whose arbitrary & chaotic actions ended by the final huge counter-reaction of the pro-Gaulist French working class.
When "incidents" like the death of the young student happen there is something else behind: since the autopsy said the bullet came from above or that the kid was in a very inclined position (as-if about falling on the floor) and since the kid was not in contact with the policeman and since the possibilities of the policeman shooting in the air and ricocheting down to the pavement and falling straight in the chest of the kid which was about to fall alone on the street are so small to have happened with the 2-3-hedoesnotremember bullets that the policeman claims to have shot in the air for fear, it all comes down that this was the work of a sniper to create a huge political issue. As said, same week same event, a policeman shot a student in Bulgaria, people took to the streets too. Connecting event: Both countries signed for the Russian gas pipeline. We have extensively discussed that.
We indeed will see more and more violence but that will increasingly come now from the illegal immigrants who instead of changing country and finding work elsewhere thus improving their situation and aleviating this country, are right now (!!!!) given the citizenship by Mr. Papandreou (on the total expense of the Greek people) to keep them inside the country and maintain the problems.
I am signing this, watch out for Papandreou. If earlier Karamanlis was an incompetent half-smart, half-imbecile politician and was surrounded by traitors (especially the female right wing ones like Bakoyani, Koutsikou, these are the worst!), Papandreou is a total traitor surrounded by the perfect team of traitors out of which the most innocent seems to be Papandoniou, the minister of finance who is simply a puppet and a bad one. Papandreou grandfather put Greece on civil war, Papandreou son indebted Greece and destoryed the local production making corruption from an ulcer into a cancer, Papandreou grandson aims higher: at completely destorying the country, hitting it right were it hurts: no not the economy, but the education, the culture, the way of thinking all that to neutralise the last resistances of the Greek people and force them accept things out of which even the 1% would be unacceptable by any nation unless you think that Americans opening talks about accepting to share the oil in Louisianna with Mexicans or French would open talks about accepting British taking over all of north France.
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And a joke...:
There is an EU summit gathering European governments to be there and prime ministers and presidents are there along with their teams of ministers.
So when Greece's turn comes, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou stands and introduces his team as being the ministers of of Economy, of Employment, of Justice, of Maritime, of Health, of Education and so on.
Then the Austrian Chancellor - I do not know, Faymman? - stands up introducing his team as being the ministers af Economy, of Justice, of Health, of Education, of Maritime...
... Papandreou who sits next to him laughs. The Chancellor turns irritated and asks him:
- I am sorry but what did you find so funny?
- I am sorry Mr. Faymman but you introduce to us a minister of Maritime affairs... but Austria has not even seaside!
- I am sorry Mr. Papandreou but I wish you behaved a bit more courteously to us Austrians. Did you see us laughing or something when you introduced to us ministers of Economy, Employment & Justice?
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Chancellor Merkel once again hesitates to lend money to Greece, various European media reports. - Greece needs 45 billion Euros.
Greece will only get the money with some heavy political demands. The creditors expect Greece to present a plan, which is going to be endorsed by no less than the European Commission, The IMF and The European Central Bank before she decides on new loans to Greece.
However, her problem and the problem for the other Euro zone countries are that they have the same currency as Greece. Therefore there are no alternatives, at least not for the moment.
Interested in the German position on the Greek problem can see a special programme on ARD tonight 20:15.
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Mathiasen, yes... but, come one, its you and me here, nobody else, lets talk freely now... do you really think that lenders (be it the IMF, the EU banks, other private banks etc.) expected to get their money back in terms of money when they were lending all these sums? Of course not. What they want is other types of concessions related to land and ressources. And the whole game here is this.
...if only you knew what is being discussed right now... *
Anyway, by the way, I have heard that Dmitry and Vladimir proposed to Greece to knock on Moscow's door too, and they really are willing to aid Greece at very interesting interest rates not to mention with all the projects that can foloow.
Now that is good news Mathiasen, isn't it? Where are the Germans to push Greeks accept Russian aid? Eh? Eeeeeehhhh? Don't they want to save themselves their precious little money? Eeeeeeeeehhhhhhh??????! Why does't Merkel let Russians borrow Greeks their money at a 3,5% rate that Russians can give? No EU spending, Greeks might take a breath and work on improving their situation and so on. Is it better for Greeks to borrow again from US institutions at 10% that they give right now? Eh?
Eh?
Well.. Mathiasen. You think the worst scenario is Germans lending Greeks (Germans borrowing at 3% and lending Greeks at almost 5,5%, yeah ok...). Well leting Greeks borrow elsewhere is the worst scenario. Russians will borrow to demand in exchange projects in Greece. They are good projects though, highly beneficial to Greece, real projects like gas and pipelines and ports and all the related commerce and industry. Unlike the EU projects - bridges in the middle of nowhere and wrestling stadiums...
I told you 1000 times: Russia and China were there with their big time contracts in 2007 & 2008 and what did we have? A huge attack by the EU, by US and then suddenly, killings of students, protests and riots, 3 times more burnings of forests and first time with more than 40 deaths in 1 summer (that of 2007 - note that the average death on summer fires is 1 death per 7-8 years or something... to give you the picture).
... if only you knew what is being talked right now... *
*Nabucco of course... and our little Navouhodonosoras PM is there to sell this piece of earth for nothing... virtually for nothing... in other times traitors had their eyes blinded (Roman punishment that survived in Byzantine times) - we should bring it back for him, perhaps if he became blind he he could missed the country as he is not Greek and his first language is Engish anyway, and jumped to do his evil work elsewhere, though I would not wish such a leader even to our age-old enemies (i.e. the British...). So bad he is. Haha! Kidding but true.
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#118, Nik;
There are worlds between us.
I don't intend to get back to the issue before the Greek government has prensented the plan that must be endorsed by the authorities, I mentioned in #117.
Even if this plan inevitable will reduce this sovereignty, Greece is still a sovereing nation state. It is free to leave the Euro zone and the union. This is the measure you should use for your notions.
I shall also try to make another thing clear, even if I can see from your contribution that you are wrapped up in a Greek reality: The chancellor and the foreign minister said yesterday that no money will be transferred right away. The address of these remarks was not Greece. It was the German voters and the court in Karlsruhe.
That is the Germany reality.
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