The euro weakens
The financial markets were unconvinced by today's pledge of support for Greece by European leaders. The problem was the lack of detail. Early in the day, it was announced that a "deal" had been done - but, as the hours passed, it became apparent that EU leaders had really only given Greece verbal backing.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy - the key players in all of this - used the same phrase. Sarkozy: "we have delivered a very clear political signal." Merkel: "We have sent a very clear political signal."
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The markets wanted more than "signals". What the leaders pointed out in Brussels was that Greece had not yet asked for any financial help. But financiers want to know what would happen if Greece can't finance its debt. Will lines of credit be available; will loans be guaranteed; will there be an injection of funds?
Today, there was a clear commitment that Greece would not be allowed to default. It was also revealed that the EU will draw on the assistance of the IMF to assist in monitoring Greece's accounts - a step that got broad approval.
There was a sense that painful decisions will have to wait. Angela Merkel was talking about analysing the situation again in March. Some say that more details may emerge when European finance ministers meet early next week.
I spoke to Neil Mackinnon, a global strategist at VTB Capital, about the prospects for the euro:
"The problems of budget deficits and debt levels throughout the eurozone are so severe that this crisis will rumble on regardless of what eventual package might come to help bail out Greece."I think the pay off in all of this is for further weakness in the euro."
To the question of whether British taxpayers might have to help finance any Greek bail-out, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said it "was a matter for the euro area". However, the UK contributes to the IMF and, if the fund ended up supporting Greece, then British money would be included.
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~46~RS~)
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Gavin,
Once again we see Europe in crisis.
The problem here is not Europe itself, but the lack of leadership within Europe. The Germans and French have taken the lead in this situation; but where are the heads of the other member states?
Is it now the role of France and Germany to lead the European Union?
It has been clear over recent years that these orginal members of the EU have had the faith to continue working for the future of Europe. They are the ones who appear to continuously take the lead while the remainder follow on, hoping that someone else will make their decisions for them.
What ever the outcome of this economic crisis in Greece (and probably the other EU countries struggling with mounting debt) it is France and German who now call the shots in Europe.
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Wow Gavin, you're obviously very good at reporting only one side of the story. Congrats on sticking with BBC traditions to the letter.
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We can count on the financial services industry and banks to require high standards, that of course they didn't hold themselves too when creating the gobal financial crisis. Such hypocrits and irresponsible jackels. One would think the banks might offer some assistance in correcting all the problems they have caused but it just isn't in them. Any opportunity to rob a corpse.
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The meeting between the prime ministers of France and Greece was still taking place when the Greek deputy defense minister announced that Greece agreed to buy 6 type Fremm frigates from France at the cost of €2.5 billion.
Greece directs approximately 4.3% of its GDP to military expenditures, the 2nd highest percentage in Europe. In absolute numbers the Greek military budget ranked 28th in the world in 2005. By the same measure, Greek military budget ranked 6th in the Mediterranean basin (behind France, Italy, Turkey, Israel and Spain) and 2nd (behind Turkey) in its immediate vicinity, the Balkans. It must be noted that Greek arms purchasing is among the highest in the world: Greece ranked 3rd in the world in 2004.
These figures are explained in the light of the arms race between Greece and Turkey with key issues being the Cyprus dispute and disagreement over sovereignty of certain islets of the Aegean.
Greek Air Force: 416.3 Million Euros for Interceptions Within a Eight-Year Period.
Based on reports prepared by the YEA [Air Force General Staff] from 2000 to 2008 the Turkish Air Force carried out 46.150 flights over the Aegean and inside Greece's area of responsibility. In many cases the flights took place inside Greek national airspace. In order to intercept them, Greece fighters flew 18.505 missions. With the average flight time being one-and-a-half hours,the figures show that Greek fighters have flown a total of 27.757,5 hours on interception missions. By multiplying the average hourly cost of each flight
-- this is 15.000 euros -- the total cost of the flights is 416.3 million euros.
It should be pointed out that the above amount is additional to the cost of normal flights flown by the Greek Air Force that would have taken place even if there were no Turkish infringements or violations.
How about the French Navy, some Dutch fighters and some German helicopters joining in patrolling Europe's borders?
:-)
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One thing is for sure, if the IMF do have to step into the Greek morasse then the Euro is definitively done for as the currency speculators will take that signal as a de facto admission by the ECB that Germany sees the Greek economy as beyond rescue ...... that will trigger further flight from the Euro and into safer reserve currencies or further increase value in gold as the true sanctuary for the speculators.
Perhaps we are seeing the return to the Gold Standard as the true global currency? It is just a shame that Gordon Brown sold of the bulk of the UK's gold stocks years ago and the rest of Europe probably did the same back in the day!
The USA government is probably laughing at the thought of the return of the Gold Standard as the Fort Knox Depository is still full of gold!
My real worry is that we are heading for a global double-dip recession as speculators will take fright of the Eurozone becoming unsustainable without IMF intervention.
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2. At 7:07pm on 11 Feb 2010, Gheryando wrote:
"Wow Gavin, you're obviously very good at reporting only one side of the story. Congrats on sticking with BBC traditions to the letter."
EUpris: If that is the case, then could you please give us the other side?
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I forgot to say that this cost does not include the cost of aircraft that have been lost during the course of an interception. According to official statistics, four fighter aircraft have been lost and four
Greek pilots lost their lives while engaged in the process of interception. Two of the fighters were F-4 Phantoms, with the two-man crew of one being killed, one was a Mirage F-1 (whose pilot was killed), and one was an F-16 (whose pilot was also killed.
Ahhh! We have also ordered 60 Eurofighters(!!)
There are similar statistics regarding similar operations of Greek frigates in the Aegean but i don't want to become tiring.
You got the picture ;-)
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To Menedemus (5):
What safer reserve currencies?
If you invest to US dollars you are going to loose huge amounts of value due to coming inflation. The US federal government with low interest rates and by printing of money has already made sure that there will be quite much inflation, the only question is how much, is it going to be just large scale or in the scale of huge. The same applies to Britain, you can't use Quantitative Ease for ever without paying the price of inflation.
Then there is of course Japan, but lets be honest, the country has had low interest rates for ever and the government debt is flying somewhere around 182% of GDP. After Japan there isn't no other real reserve currencies...
The fact of the matter is in todays world you have two real reserve currencies, namely the US dollar and the Euro, both have good sides and both have bad sides, you just have to take your pick. And no, gold is not an option.
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To greece2000 (7):
How about having better relations to your neighbors? How about dealing once and for all with the Cyprus problem? Spending huge amounts of money to defense isn't a virtue.
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Gavin,
You say that " Today, there was a clear commitment that Greece would not be allowed to default."
However these are just words from politicians which we know from bitter experience can be reversed at any time. They will not say that Greece can default until the day it happens - political denials are generally worthless. They will just play word games to show that what they really meant was exactly the opposite. The only sensible judgement has to be based on their actions, not words. Basically the EU did nothing today. I suspect that somewhere in Europe a printer has just received an order to print Drachma's as fast as he can.
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Menedemus, on the gold as reserve currency.
In fact it works. :o) I don't know how would work real golden coins :o), but even silver coins "worked" (though in a small area). But not lonngg time ago and quiet in Europe, I'd say.
Pro-Russian Transdnistria, when forgotten by Russia, and surrounded by friendly neighbours all over :o)) - locked up there, where they are - introducced own currency. Which proved to be far more popular than the nearby Ukrainian "candy wraps", Belorussian "candy-wraps" etc. In fact there, was quiet a demand for it! :o) among neighbours.
They coined "Transdniestrian rouble". Silver. Which saved them, as was accepted as currency by neighbouring Moldovians and Ukrainians! :o)))
If anything, you can always make home cutlery of it :o)
Plus the high demand from numismatic collectioners ww. :o)
I think it's not the case now, but they lasted about 10 years with this theiir currency, which proved quite a success, for an un-recognised, un-existing and un-anything in the world a separate "place".
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Pity Transdniestria didn't go for golden Transdniestrians! :o)))
I am sure there'd be now quite a demand for that a European currency.
I heard in Germany small gold ? slabs? are sold even via street dispensers! so good a deamdn for them, that one doesn't even has to ggo to a bank, but can buy from a type of a cash-machine, somehow.
Transdniestria was ahead of its time :o))), with that old approach , of a currency "as good as gold:o) re-invvention.
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@ Jukka Rohila
A virtue?
Did i sound like boasting about Greek military? I apologize..
I think that spending tax payers' money on arms is tragic.
Greeks are responsible for the economic turmoil and the bad state of the Greek economy. I am not blaming others.
I am just shedding light on some aspects of the Greek budget that other Europeans are not aware of.
One of the plights of the Greek economy is the military expenditures.
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Jukka Rohila wrote:
"To Menedemus (5):
What safer reserve currencies? "
Well, the Swiss franc is generally considered the most stable of currencies in a storm.
Swiss banking regulations are very strict, requiring large percentages of capital to be kept by each bank. Then there is the fact that the swiss banking and insurance industries have never once suffered a depression or collapse.
Oh, did I mention that every Swiss canton has a bank owned by the government, which invest money for the people of the canton, thus reducing their tax liabilities?
OK, OK... Now comes the snarling fantasy from Marcus and Jukka, who claim that Swiss bankers fund crime and war and evil.
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To democracythreat (14):
If we for a moment won't go to the traditional questions concerning Switzerland, but talk about the Swiss franc. The Swiss franc isn't a reserve currency, in 2008 0.1% of worlds reserves were allocated to Swiss francs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency
The thing is that a value of currency comes from the possibility to buy commodities, products and services with it. The reason why US dollar and Euro are major reserve currencies is that they are backed up by huge amounts of production, the Eurozone produces 22% and the USA 23% of the worlds GDP. If you want to buy anything made in the Eurozone or in the USA, you need Euros and Dollars, actually if you want to do business, there is no going around Europe and the USA, what they produce end up everywhere in the world.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29
So lets get real with reserve currencies and understand one thing, both US dollar and Euro are here to stay.
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Jukka Rohila @ #8
Jukka, you jumped inwith both feet but, in a way you came to my main point because of what I went on to suggest was that safer currencies, perhaps, no longer exist, even for the currency speculators and that a return to the Gold Standard may be imminent.
I entirely agree with you that QE has the inherenet effect of creating inflation an that inflationary effect is already self-evident in the United Kingdom where inflation ahs risen to above 3% and despite the Bank of ENgland wishfully hoping that inflation in the UK may return to 2% levels for the rest of the year I strongly suspect that the British Economy is too volatile at the moment to give an honest assessment and the reality is that inflation and high unemeployemnt will hi the UK befoire the end of 2010.
The world economy is too volatile to score points by saying one currency is any better than another but the Greek economy is such a basket case that it stands out like a sore thumb!
A return to the gold standard has benefits when all the world's currencies are so dodgy!
Unfortunately for Europe, the only nation that has a lot of gold is the USA and the europeans will hate to admit the Euro has failed and should be susbsidised by dealing in gold.
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I spoke to Neil Mackinnon, a global staregist at VTB Capital, about the prospects for the euro.
Staregist? That's some typo.
Seriously though. Nothing is allowed to fail, is it? At least, not the banks or countries. I worry about the future: an impression has been created that, if you are big and/or important enough, you can be as reckless as you want because you won't be allowed to fail. There's always someone willing to step in: in Greece's case, Germany and France. I'm yet to be convinced that steps are being taken to ensure the mistakes and gambles that led to this recession will not be repeated (but then I'm no expert).
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I DO hope that the West German taxpayer, already used to paying for the extra costs of unification with the DDR, are looking forward to paying out to help the Greeks!
And after Greece, the West German taxpayers will no doubt be called upon to help out Ireland, Spain and Portugal. And how is Italy doing?
I wonder how long it will be before the Germans want to bring back the DM?
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4. At 7:30pm on 11 Feb 2010, greece2000 wrote:
It should be pointed out that the above amount is additional to the cost of normal flights flown by the Greek Air Force that would have taken place even if there were no Turkish infringements or violations.
How about the French Navy, some Dutch fighters and some German helicopters joining in patrolling Europe's borders?
:-)
=============
I wouldn't worry about it, let Turkey into the EU and they'll have to send their Airplanes to protect their borders. Mind you its all a bit iffy now isn't it, suddenly the realisation that one currency covering so many countries, all with their own ability to Spend, Spend ,Spend may not be such a good idea. I'm waiting for the Irish response if the Greeks get bailed out. Poor old Ireland, they spent 600 years moaning that the English stuffed em. now after being well behaved and accepting 2 referenda, they are getting stuffed by the EU as the EU decides what to do about Greece!
What is worse, is that even though not part of the Euro, we could still have to chip in to bail them out, at least I believe that to be the case, as Gordon signed us up to Lisbon!
Bite the bullet, hand over all power to Germany and let them get on with it. Then next time the US Secretary of State wants to speak to Europe, they'll know who to ring.
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To Menedemus (16):
The problem is that gold standard is not that different from what we have. In essence the government says "for every one paper you get this amount of gold", in time the government will issue more and more papers without increasing gold, every paper is worth the amount specified in gold, but there is no gold to match every issued paper. If all paper holders run into a bank, papers become worthless. The government may also just issue a decree and halt swappability of paper to gold. In case if we also renounce fractional reserve banking, then we are in real trouble as our wealth far exceeds the amount of gold we have.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard
I myself don't see any problem with the system we have. Yes, values of currencies go up and down, yes, inflation and deflation might haunt sometimes, but so what, it is a very dynamic system and allows instant valuation of all things. Going to any other system would just add frigidity and decrease economic activity.
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Menedemus (#16) "Unfortunately for Europe, the only nation that has a lot of gold is the USA ... "
The largest reserves, perhaps, but China is fifth. And Chinais the largest producer of gold today, and the only country among the largest producers with an increasing production.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-Why-China-outbeats-India-in-gold-reserves-17196-3-1.html
http://www.dani2989.com/gold/goldprod0509gb.htm
I suppose China would get along with a gold standard well enough, but fortunately the world is not going back there.
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It amazes me how easily you can throw the ball to Greece. Mr Greece2000 tells you the country in the last 8 years spent half a billion Euros ONLY for the kerozene (let alone the machines, the maintenance, the spare parts, the purchases, the the the...) to fend off Turkish violations of our airspace. We ended up having one of the best airforces in the world and the only one with pilots capable of dog-fighting 1,5 minute after take off and while going up (theoretically deemed impossible). Greece ended up having an army which despite its chronic disorganisation can take all the EU countries (apart the big 5 - even them 1 on 1, no nukes, it could be still debatable!!!) together any time. Sorry. That costs!!! And that is riculous for a country of 10 million and a ridiculous size.
re 9:@Jukka Rohila tells us that it is our fault and we should have better relations with our neighbours. Yes. Only that Greece has no demand over their neighbouts but its neighbours constantly and via official political open direct territorial demands (FYROM and latedly several circles within Albania) while Turkey simply theatens constantly with war.
So to be friend we will have to accord to give our space, sea at land at Turkey like we gave half Cyprus and to accord to give half Greece to FYROM, perhaps the Albanians next what else. I am sorry but when Britain back in 1982 was ready to send a huge army to the other end of the world to fight Argentine about a collection of rocks in the ocean even opening the possibility of using nukes (ref. Thatcher had openly suggested it) - and of course good thing they did, its the only way out... who is to judge Greece for wanting only to defend what has remained of its nation? Its unbelievable we have that discussion! Its out of space.
re 19: @DevilsAdvocate tells us that a good way to solve our problems with Turkey is to let Turkey inside. But Greece does not poses any problem on that. Only that Turkey will have
1) to abolish all of its military law
2) accept the 12-mile rule in the Aegean so even if having EU access it will have nothing more than access - that Greece may provide it anyway
3) will have to retract in 1 day all war threats on Greece and enter as partern the next day - not evident (when a country poses an offensive war theat there is some basic structural problem and it cannot calm down unless its demand is satisfied)
4) will have to start respecting religious and ethnic freedoms in the country: with nearly 20 million Kurds, 5 million Alevites, 2 million Bektashis and 10s of different ethnic groups, and without the overulling military state above, Turkey will wake up one day and find itself a loose federal state.
5) retire from Cyprus, taking along all coloners who occupy Greek Cypriots' properties, asking official forgiveness for all the violence and the crimes including the murder of 3,000 Greek prisoners.
7) teach in the turkish history books that up to 1910 Minor Asia had a 40% christian majority annihilated by the kemalist state throug systematic measures, and recognise officially the Greek, Armenian and Assyrian genocides totaling 3 million murdered people and 4 expulsed.
....
What else do you want to understand that Turkey has no interest in getting in the EU and that is uses all these talks because US places it to do so.
Things are not simple! We are not going to attribute the totality of the financial issues on the military spending, the situation is really very complicated. But down to the basics we will always end up in the geopolitial deficit. There is absolutely no country in the world that found itself in a geopolitical deficit and rose to have a nice healthy economy. These things are linked tightly.
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"Unfortunately for Europe, the only nation that has a lot of gold is the USA and the europeans will hate to admit the Euro has failed and should be susbsidised by dealing in gold." (from Menedemus #16)
Perhaps Europe should switch to the "Riga Gold" standard.
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..... or the Gold-Dinar Standard as advocated for Islamic nations.
There are many versions of the Gold Standard but the Bretton-Woods Gold Standard was the one that most acceptable globally in recent times.
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To quote Gavin, "To the question of whether British taxpayers might have to help finance any Greek bail-out, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said it "was a matter for the Euro area". However, the UK contrbutes to the IMF and if the fund ended up supporting Greece then British money would be included.
This returns me to my light-hearted but sincere disgust I raised with the issue I mentioned in a previous thread about the difference between the UK and Greece as regards welfare and social benefits between the two countries.
In Greece, people will be forced to retire at 63 as part of the austerity package being imposed upon the Greek people.
If the UK, through the IMF, contributes UK tax-payers money to Greece then the British people will intrinsically be supporting Greeks retiring (with probably healthy pensions) at the grand old age of 63 when, back here in the UK, the old folk currently have to wait until they are 65 and there is much discussion of the need to raise this age of retirement in the UK to 71.
Such disparities will cause resentment in the UK if British Taxes are donated to support failed economies that cannot afford to subsidise retirement at 63 let alone 61 which is/was the Greek retirement age.
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#5. "and the rest of Europe probably did the same back in the day!"
Nope!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
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I am not a number @#26
Good link. Thank you.
It does emphasise what a bad (not just poor!) decision maker is Gordon Brown who sold of 400 metric tonnes of British Gold in May 1999 and the best part of the remainder of the gold reserves in 2007.
Still, I am sure the Labour Party will continue to hold Gordon in high esteem even after the results of the forthcoming General Election have done for the Labour Party. I don't think anyone else will!
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If Britain with its powerful economy joins the euro now they will save the day and will spare the euro months of trouble
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The question is will French and German taxpayers who are also voters reach into their pockets to pay for the dreams of a European superstate they don't necessarily agree with. And if this time what about next time and the tme after that? Markets don't react to political signals, they react to money. So far not one Euro has been committed and the markets unlike governments are unforgiving, unrelenting, and will not wait around. This is not the EU negotiating nuclear weapons with Iran where you can stall and get nowhere for years and there are no consequences. It will soon be put up or shut up time. And if they don't put up, not only will their Euro tumble but the next time they send a political signal, that alone will be sufficient to sustain another hit.
It would be interesting if Greece gets bailed out by the IMF, an organization designed to aid poor developing nations. Not only is this robbing from the poor to subsidize the corrupt, it would be lending money to a government that has policies that the IMF would normally not tolerate. Surely the IMF should insist on at least the same level of financial responsibility from Greece that it demands of others it helps out. When the Europeans brag about how much money they donate to the poorer countries, don't forget to deduct what the IMF diverts to the Greek bailout. I have a hunch this will be the first of many bailouts in Euroland.
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I understand that Greek contractors are nearly finished building the Olympic village and the venues. Just slightly behind schedule :-)
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Mavrelius, with you protestant ethics :o) or I don't know which.
Think for a sec; most of the time in Greece (I suppose) , say if a shop owner is not sharp at 9 o'clock to open his shop doors - but then the buyer is also Greek! he'll never show up at 9! :o))) so all is balanced and fine.
Still, somehow I think shop owners open their shops early in Greece included, in fact :o)))) hardly anyone can allow oneself these days to open a store late...
Well, as an owl, I personally sympathise with a lax attitude to time habit :o) In particular - those "lapsed" (for me) morning years (hours) :o)))
Anyway, for ex in Russia, it's a rule unknown to each other people wait for each other 15 min, then depart :o))) without having made that acquaintance :o))))
People who know each other wait at the ? rendezvous rend anyway meeting place 45 minutes. Then you can walk away with an easy heart, type "did all I could". All know; 15 min and 45 min rules. Strict discipline.
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I need to come to a place on the 18th Feb at 10am. Already worried :o)))
Marked it in the wall calendar :o)))), honestly. Don't know if I'll make it. Thinking of plans, how do make it happen. So far, has only come up with 1 - to view it as a late evening.
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Suppose, if I give students print-outs of the lectures, and then they will read it to me? And explain. To each other, something. But I will have to stand anyway! I can't lie down under the table and say "imagine your teacher isn't here". Not polite. So I will have to stand (dressed up, mind it) and keep eyes open. and react, in case someone will? say something. Like produce an adequate, meaningful response, type? "yes?"
Jesus Christ.
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WA;
"Well, as an owl, I personally sympathise with a lax attitude to time habit"
It really doesn't matter how many hours you are at work, what counts is what you accomplish in the time you are there. Some people can wreck more havoc in five minutes that other people can produce in an entire day :-)
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Mr. Gavin:
My interpretation of the picture coming with this article is that the solid stone in this is chancellor and that the French president is relieved.
The UK and Gordon Brown are staying out of this. The PM is probably relieved that the he does not have to explain anything the British voters. However, to me is just underlines that the Euro zone is the centre of the Union.
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A question to Menedemus & MAII when you say the IMF (or even France/Germany who knows??) will give money to Greece, do you actuall believe that those entities will donate money Greece and never ask for it back (if that's the case I want to do business with the IMF also) or do you think they will lend them some money at rates less then the bankers are asking, but never the less they will get their money back? If the idea is that the money never gets repaid, then I take my hat off to you and I join you in your compaing, if not I take it you post any rubish that jumps into your heads and you are ignorant:)
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@35 Mathiasen,
Yes true "the Euro zone is the centre of the Union." I wished the rest of the people here in the UK woke up to that and we also joined in. But we can't do it because we have the bankers to look after and they will loose money by us not paying exchange rates and also the hedge funds not having one more currency to bet on. In the end that is what are political elite has been reduced here in the UK a puppet for the banks, and the biggest puppet with the hugest mouth of cause is london mayor boris johnson. So no the government here instead of doing something that would really benefit the UK people, chooses instead to continue the policy of benefiting the few thousand bank owners.
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The issue with the IMF supporting the Euro and helping Greece is not that the money does not get repaid but that the IMF is funded by tax paid by peoples who's living standards, in some respects, are not as good as that enjoyed by Greeks who are now paying for a bloated public sector and, as I highlighted, unaffordable welfare provisions which are better than those enjoyed by the taxpayers residing in the donor nations.
People need to take off their rose-tinted spectacles and see that the Greek economy is in dire straights but tinkering at the edges and letting corrupt practice and too good welfare provision persist whilst donor nation taxpayers do not enjoy such luxuries does not make for sympathy but will lead to donor fatigue or worse still resentment.
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Everyone presumes that Germany should ride to the rescue of the Euro but there is a fundamental problem that when it rains for the Euro it is not a shower but a rainstorm.
The euro continued to fall in early trading this morning as new figures revealed the eurozone’s biggest economy, that of Germany, came to a standstill during the final three months of 2009.
Germany’s GDP remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of last year, falling below forecasts of 0.2 per cent growth and far below third quarter output which rose by 0.7 per cent.
Its not so much that the the Euro cannot be rescued but it ain't reasonable for Germans to take on the sole burden of funding the Euro recovery when the German economy is not doing so well either.
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37 ChrisArta,
I don't think anyone in the UK has any pity for the Political Elites. And as for the European Political Elites, aren't they the biggest cause of complaints for EUsceptics?
I hear your arguement that joinging the Euro would benefit the UK people but I believe even Lord Mandleson said the UK was doing better outside now than if it had been inside.
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So in essence Gavin you feel that there has really only been hot air from this summit. This is a shame and Greece for all its faults deserves better I think. I remember reading over the last few days on notayesmanseconomics of the moral hazards implicit in this summit including the risk of politicians grandstanding and not grasping the nettle. It would seem that his fears are coming to pass.
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Webalice,
What film is this quote from?
"God, your fish tastes aweful!"
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Let me be quite clear.
1) Only a financially innumerate fool could find anything edifying in the present struggles of the EUro-zone in relation to Greece and the Money Markets.
Though it is also surely a dramatic demonstration of the futility of the EU insistance 'one-size-fits-all' as a financial or economic strategy.
2) Even more so, only a total innumerate seeing the news that Europe's powerhouse German Economy has failed to continue the pull-out from recession would not be extremely worried for all EUrope (inc. UK).
All that said, I again must ask/mention (as I have a number of times since last Autumn) how is it that Germany and its EU partner-in-chief, France could have emerged at exactly the same time from the massive downturn in Fiscal-Economic affairs towards the close of 2009?
Frankly, I doubted and warned then that France's figures in particular had to be considered wholly unrealible as they patently do NOT add up! I repeat now, with even more conviction, if Germany's economy is still just coming off the ropes then there is no possibility France could have managed any better.
Will some of the 'pro-EU/pro-Paris-Berlin' lobbyists now please have the courage to come forward and explain how it is they could comparatively lambast the UK/England Economy & Government policies for its dilatory emergence from the recession which has turned out to be a far more accurate and, dare I say, honest appreciation/approach to the reality than has been the case with the EU's/EUro-zone's 2 largest Economies?
We must all hope this setback for Germany is temporary: Whilst it is surely important for the EU that the EUro does not fail completely, there is no doubt the fate of it and the EU does in most respects ly with Germany's ability to drive forward the continental European and (though not as much) British Isles economies.
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@38 - Menedemus,
Yes that statement makes much more sense than the previous one that you made it sound as if we would be donating money to them.
@40 - Angryjohn,
I don't care about what Mandleson or Brown say! I know that for the last few years and even now if I had Euros to use instead of pounds changing then into Euros I would had been better off. So I still think that both Mandleson & Brown are economical with the truth as to what is good for us! They probably mean their friends the banks are better off because we don't have the Euro, not me and you. Anyhow Brown is the reason we are not in the Euro already.
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Menedemus
Re #25.
"..British people (working to 65+) will intrinsically (via IMF) be supporting Greeks retiring... aged 61.."
Such is the condition of the EU playing field: Not only the UK Citizen Tax-payers, but also many other EU27 Nations who do not have such a relaxed approach to the viable 'employment age' of their Nationals.
Now, it may be some will claim this is a case for a 'one-size-fits-all' retirement age: Stuff and nonsense of course - - the State Pension scheme is transparently a National issue according to National Fiscal -Employment requirements & arrangements; the retirement of an individual is plainly dependent on that individiual's employment circumstances.
No doubt the EU-Brussels does not see it that way: As I have written on a previous topics prepare for ever more encroachment and over-riding by ECJ 'judgements' on policies and matters properly supported by Citizens at National Elections to National Parliaments.
With the lucrative 'pots' of money in National 'Retirement'/'Pensions' schemes they are obvious candidates for wholly warranted, avaricious supra-National interference.
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MarcusAureliusII wrote:
"The question is will French and German taxpayers who are also voters reach into their pockets to pay for the dreams of a European superstate they don't necessarily agree with."
No, that is not the question. The question is whether the bankers in Brussels will instruct their political commissars to reach into the pockets of French and German taxpayers and TAKE their money to pay profits to bankers, under the guise of a dream for a European superstate.
Don't be fooled, Marcus. The bankers don't care about a European superstate. All they want is short term profits and the power it brings. If they wanted a European superstate they would promote democracy and feed from the public yearning for a democratic europe. If they wanted a European superstate, the bankers would stay out of politics and keep to responsible banking.
What we see in Brussels is the plunder and theft of money from taxpayers by bankers and industrialists who have utterly corrupted the two party system.
These people have no idealism, and not a care in the world for Europe. You can tell by how much they care about what happens to the publics money they throw around with such gay abandon.
Brussels is run by hard core greed, and with a total lack of respect for the fate of Europe. Europe exists as a farm for these people, an area of land from which they reap their private harvest.
The taxpayer is a spectator. There is no participation in the political process beyond the most insulting and absurd charade.
Increasing, the professional journalists are also mere spectators.
Did you notice how Hewitt was simply unable to get an answer regarding what Brussels intends to do? It is not his business, and he accepts that. What can he do? What can any of us do?
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Erratum!
Re my #45
Last sentence, the "warranted" should of course read, 'UNWARRANTED'.
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I've noticed from other news sites and commentators that there is not a lot of support around Europe for this bail-out. The general concensus appears to be "Why should we bail them out?"
Greece's reputation as a modern country within the EU is at an all time low. When other countries are still struggling with an ailing economy why should one country receive extra aid, when the others are left to fend for themselves. In addition the Greeks rather 'ralaxed' attitude to paying tax suggests that this will be good money after bad.
I would suugest that before any deal is made with Greece that they are forced to put their own house in order and not expect the tax-payer to bail them out for their own failures (where have I heard THAT before.....?)
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DemocThreat
Re #46
Seldom read a more appropriate pictoral description:
"..Brussels is run by hard core greed, and with a total lack of respect for Europe.Europe exists as a farm for these people, an area of land from which they reap their provate harvest."
Of course, that's a very low lying Political-EUrocrat 'farm', often a quagmire of expensive and contrary processes, as the rotation of a crop of policies seasonally stifles productivity and the tax-payer husbandry excessively exploits diminishing returns on investment.
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CA #36;
What creditors (principly bond holders) expect whether it is from the EU central bank or the IMF and haven't gotten so far is a contract obligating whichever to guarantee that if the Greek government doesn't pay back these loans when they come due, the other backer will. This with the expectation that at some unspecified time in the future, the Greek government will pay those loans back to whoever covered them. The outside agency in effect cosigning as guarantor for the loan. As we have seen with poor nations, sometimes those loans are forgiven and so the cosignor in effect pays Greece's obligation.
The problem is that this money must come from somewhere and that means out of the pockets either directly from French and German citizens or indirectly from all EU nation taxpayers whose money goes in part to fund the IMF. If the money comes from the IMF, Brits will be on the hook in part for the payment.
dt;
While it may be true that bankers in Brussels are having a field day living the high life and enjoying huge salaries from mismanaging the EU's money, the driving force behind the Eurodollar and the EU as more than a free trade zone was the megalomaniacal desire to create a unified Europe as the dominant economic, military, political, and cultural power in the world. This goes back at least to Alexander the Great and crops up from time to time. Considering the longstanding animosities between these various peoples not to mention the wide disparity of wealth, enterprise, culture, this of necessity had to be done with force against the will of those it would be imposed on. In the case of the European Union, the latest such effort, it was facillitated by the illusion of democracy at least at first until the populations that voted to enter had authorized instruments that allowed their government to make irrevocable committments to cede their national sovereignty.
What Europeans ignored or refused to accept is that beyond the absurdity of their construct is the fact that there is not the technicological, industrial, agricultural, military, and other resources that qualify Europe to be even a major player in the world. They tried to rationalize this away by incorporating so many countries that by the most superficial inspection the collective GDP and population would be of the same order of magnitude as the real superstate they were trying to challenge, the United States. But this really is only an illusion as Europe is by more careful and thoughtful analysis no match against a far superior civilization. No matter how you slice it, no matter what faults you find in the US as an economy, as a society, as for blunders in policies, there just isn't any real way to compare the two entities and find anything remotely like approximate equivalence.
I told you so all along. Events are now proving I was right.
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Maybe this whole situation will turn out to be for the good of the European Union and in particular the Brussels elite EUrocrats and those National leaders/Parties who have so often in the last decade ignored or subverted their Citizens' views on the EU's policies.
Just maybe some of the utterly deluded grandiose ideas and the more obvious outright duplicity of the 'pro-EU' will finally be put to rest.
I give just one example:
About 3 Mr Hewitt topics back from this one the arch 'pro-EU' apologist Mathiasen wrote, ".. in September.. 90% (of German).. voters supported German EU politics.."
This was alleged to explain that German support for abandoning the Deutschmark for the EUro etc. was still overwhelming.
Which if we take Germany's National Elections would appear to be the case.
That this is the sort of delusion and duplicitous use of the facts I am referring to is easily shown:
Only 2 months earlier in July 2009, 43.3% of eligible German Citizens participated in the European Parliament Elections.
I only ask: Which set of results may be taken as more accurately reflecting the true nature of German Citizens' attitude to the EU/EUro?
I only suggest: Perhaps a full and realistic appraisal of the European Citizens' views on EU 'expansion', EU 'Euro'/'zone', EU 'open borders', EU 'Lisbon ratification', might now include the realisation the European Union has not addressed its Citizens' concerns on these and other issues. This sort of high-handed EU attitude is evident in the 'Greece' financial debacle: From viewing Media reports in the UK and across the EU there is a clear implication the great majority of European Citizens do not feel disposed, given their own Nations' financial difficulties, to assist Greece with 'loans/subsidies' etc. from their Nations' coffers. It would seem the entire EU Leadership (inc. UK via IMF) is completely ignoring thess popular National sentiments!
It may be that Greece should be helped, but far more must be done by the EU and National Leaders to explain this case for intervention to the Citizens.
Otherwise, the same disllusion and cynacism about the EU's attitude to Citizens will simply gain even more ground.
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cbw;
Insofar as German and French support of the EU, there's an old saying that success has a thousand relatives, failure is an orphan. I remind you that back around 2002 when Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac ran for election cynically playing the "anti-American" card, their venomous bile and hatred found enormous resonance not only in France and Germany where they won their elections but all over Europe. The EU was conceived of in part as a way to challenge the US and Chirac and deVillepin said so publically over and over again. The financial crisis the world has suffered was the result of the economic equivalent of an arsenal of nuclear weapons invented and launched to targets all over the world from the United States. Had America deliberately set out to destroy Europe's economies, it could hardly have done better than what it did inadvertently. The difference is that the US will recover, Europe will not. Europe does not have the resources on its own and this time it will get no outside help from America. In fact the BRIC countries will take the opportunity to pound it into the ground. And the Euro? An economic Maginot Line intended to strengthen Europe's economies but in actuality making them far weaker, far more vulnerable and creating a situation where failure of even the weakest of the economies could pull the rest of them down with it. The sequence of events could harldy have been more fortuitous had they been planned as a military campaign. Weakened by the financial crisis, Germany and France are in no position to bail out the PIGS but their economies tied to them inseparably though the Euro, they are in no position not to. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. The irony of this could hardly be more biting. No writer of fiction would get away with such an improbable plot.
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MA II - 50. "Oh Lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz"
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Tim;
I don't know where things stand now but a year ago there were many hundreds, possibly thousands of them on the pier at San Diego California along with the rest of 180 acres of imported new cars that dealers refused to take delivery on because their own lots were too filled with unsold cars already. But given the reputation for unreliability Mercedes has recently garnered since its foolish takeover (disguised as a merger) of Chrysler, I'd have a contract with a towing service ready ahead of time and wads of money handy since repairs of Mercedes and other imported European luxury cars are astronomical in the US. Wouldn't you be better off with a Honda Civic? How about an Acura Legend TL, every bit as good, far more reliable, and much less expensive to buy and maintain :-)
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@52 MAII
"No writer of fiction would get away with such an improbable plot. "
And yet your trying it anyway...
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@54 MAII,
I'll take a train better, no airbag issues with it:)) and I can read a book or a newspaper on the way!
Regarding the EU & Euro, it will be fine. As good as the USA if not better. I just wished the two got together and sorted out the bankers, everything else will fall into place.
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Benefactor;
So then you don't blame the financial collapse of Europe on the US sub prime mortgage fiasco including all of the pyramid schemes such as CMOs and CDSs built on top of them. And the failure of AIG would have had no real impact on Europe. OK, I'd like to hear your explanation of it then. I eagerly await being enlightened by your wisdom and knowledge of recent events.
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CA;
"@54 MAII,
I'll take a train better, no airbag issues with it:)) and I can read a book or a newspaper on the way!"
With the falling Euro and oil priced in US dollars the cost of gasoline may beocme so high in Europe you may have no other choice. However have you conidered another alternative, a bicycle?
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#57 MAII
Your stories of Europes and the Euro's death are greatly exaggerated. If/when we go down, your coming with us...
BTW, “How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?”
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I'm just glad we're not in the Euro, and are more isolated from the problem than the French and Germans are.
I've noticed that no one apart from Mandelson seems to talk about us joining the Euro anymore.
I wonder if the current problems aren't a good opportunity for there to be a wider debate about the future of the EU. If I was French or German, I'd be a bit miffed if my government stepped in to help Greece or any of the other countries in a similar situation.
Maybe it's time to face reality, the the best way forward for Europe is for us to be friends and allies, operating in a Europe of Nations, not a federal superstate. That way, the problems of countries such as Greece and Spain would be their own, and not involve a transfer of wealth away from other, better-run countries.
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Ask yourself, why Greece got into the EU - it was clear in 1978 that the country was a special case, not easy to deal. Why the EU closed their eyes through the 1980s and the crazy and criminal management of the EU funds by the greek governments? Perhaps it was all to claim its rich ancient/medieval heritage? Or to enter a key country inside the union and avoid other... stories? Like?
Ok. We'll take a different approach. Imagine, now Greece opts out of the "euro" currency. Obviously staying to eat all the rest of the trouble without the single currency and without profiting even to 50% of the common market due to geography (we only now border only with EU Bulgaria, not any great attraction to investors either), we will soon start ignoring EU and finally either being kicked out or simply we will go out ourselfs.
After that the next thing that Turkey will try to do by all means is a direct medium scale war or even total war against Greece to gain all of the Aegean so as to profit from its current occupation of Bosphorus. That, you should take for granted since Turkey's expenditures are directed almost singlehandedly to a naval war (that it can make ONLY against Greece, not against Armenia,Russia, Iran or Syria!!!! - come on put your head work here!).
But it goes without saying that Greece in order to leave Europe it will have to turn either to US or Russia. US will 95-100% remain pro-Turkey, we explained that it is not foreseen that it will change its stance easily, for obvious reasons having to do with Russia. Thus the natural outcome would be for Greece to ally with Russia. And contrary to Serbia (which is landlocked thus not having much to offer to Russians), the case of Greece can offer much more - starting from a Russian base in the Aegean (with the parallel close of the US base in Crete). That is it: Turkey cannot anymore start any war cos it will see the fate of Georgia (and Turkey alone is not much more powerfull that Georgia in front of the Russia when still after all that US help it hardly takes on Greece 1 on 1 without external interference due to inherent inner problems). And a Russian-Turkish war will not just be a small clash, it will lead to Turkey crumbling and even ceasing to exist as en entity. US like in the case of Georgia will not be able to act if things arrive on that, US will have to act pre-emptively and that is what it does. Do not imagine I have any special faith to Russia - I simply give a reality-scenario based on the good-old geopolitical intentions of Russia unless you think Russia wants to remain to the playgrounds of Georgia or Ukraine (?!).
So in case Greece allies totally with Russia most possibly Turkey will avoid the above scenarios will simply cease its offensive downright criminal activity in the region, Greece will finally enforce the international law by extending its sea-space to 12 miles closing all the Aegean to its own and will act mainly to profit its protector, Russia. Now of that will favour the Greek people or again (like in the US case) a small group of local mafias with double nationalities, that is another question, what is certain is that Greece would cease to be left unarmed by US in front of an offensive Turkey like in 1973-4 when the US had to bring down dictator Papadopoulos (themselves had placed in 1967) and raise dictator Ioannidis who was ordered by them to retire ALL Greek army from Cyprus in spring 1974 and then in June 1974 re-enter (?!?!?!?) to do an as-if junta there so that Turkish could have a justifiation to enter and find no resistance by Greeks, Turkish army that had blatantly failed to invade the island back in 1964 and 1966 when the British and US had asked them so...
SO...so... the next step is to bring its shipping industry in the service of Russian production & market. For those that ignore it, that is what 200 years ago Ottoman-ruled Greeks do to gain immense fortunes and pay for the Greek revolution, albeit Russia was attacked politically in 1828 and militarily in 1850 so that it could not profit from the relationship it had developed with Greece.
SO in todays/tomorrow's world, it would simply mean that with Russian support, Greece from the "poor relative" would become one of EU's main interlocutors in the area only that this time EU would have to come and give multiple times more to Greece to pass its own thing. So... see how things can end up? Trust me the possibility is very small cos all peopel right now are working exactly on other directions and will never leave it to happen... But mind you, I am not talking in the air: already talks on the Russia-Bulgaria-Greece gazpipeline have been followed by talks about Russians creating a "commercial" base in the island of Thasos (what on earth do they need it in an island no matter if close to the mainland? Obviously to transform it into a military one later on!).
So... so... Bailing it out seems to be one of these directions to say it blunt. And it is the wrong direction. It could even become a blackmail situation!
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Benefactor;
"BTW, “How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?”"
As long as it has the world's biggest computers that can print the world's most money. It's a unique position to be in.
BTW, I'm stil waiting for your explanation of the financial crisis. You contradicted mine so where is yours?
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@58 - MAII
I'm very unbalanced, so the price of oil will have to go ver high to see me on a bicycle :))
Trains powered by electricily produced by nuclear power stations in France is the only hope me :))
The other hope that I have is that our wise government will join to Euro, but with the amount of Europhobes I don't hold great hopes for that option, so I go back to trains powered by electricity from France, I just don't know how we are going to pay for it??:)) Maybe they will ahve to bail us out like Greece :)))
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Marcus the A:
Your US-centric view of things is very limiting. Wall St, located in NY, created the global financial crisis and the US government handed them 1Tr dollars out of the taxpayers pockets after they had diminished the retirement accounts of those very citizens. The SEC, with oversight responsibilities, had done nothing to protect the investors and the congress when made aware of the financial house of cards in 2001 did nothing at the request of their pimps the bankers. So, don't be so harsh on the EU when the US has a lot of responsbility for what has happened. As this is an on-going process, for everyone but the bankers, the future may include some hardships in the US as well, 10% unemployment, a Republican party blocking any regulation of the banks and anything else it seems and a disillusioned public with the corruption in congress. As you have your ideas about others, you should allow for others to have ideas about the US.
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#62 MAII
"BTW, I'm stil waiting for your explanation of the financial crisis. You contradicted mine so where is yours?"
No, I didn't. In the post I referenced you were babbling on about Europe trying to be a superpower and how doomed the continent is and other such rubbish. You made no real reference to the hows or whys, just your usual predictions of doom and gloom.
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To Marcus
I agree with your opinion on at lest most of current Mercs. The merger did not work, FIAT might do something with them but I doubt it. Merge with a looser and one is a likely be dragged down by it.
I have noticed on reason newsreels of the great and the good of Europe arriving at conferences etc, the Merc. has been replaced by the BMW 7 Series. For longer distances, I drive a 12 year old 2.8i series 5 BMW - the only replacement has been a windscreen motor €200 - not bad really!
As far as economics go, as nobody really know what is going on, never mind why, so I guess your views are as good or as bad as anybody else's.
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"With the falling Euro and oil priced in US dollars the cost of gasoline may beocme so high in Europe ... " (from MarcusAureliusII at #58)
Remember that the Euro is still up about one-third against the dollar, so it has a long way to fall before losing ground. The high price of gasoline is not merely a consequence of a weak currency, and the Euro isn't weak merely because it pulls back a bit.
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ghost of a szechuan chicken;
Don't argue with me about the cause of the financial crisis, argue with benefactor. He says that had nothing to do with Europe's problems. Actually in fact it had everything to do with their problems. While American banks were leveraged 10 to 1, European banks were leveraged 20 to 1, 30 to 1, and even 40 to 1. They were even greedier than their Amerian counterparts in wanting to make profits out of CDSs. Had the US government allowed AIG to go bankrupt the way it allowed Lehman Brothers, Europe would have died on the spot. European governments begged President Bush to bail it out. Much to my regret and that of many other Americans that is exactly what he did to the tune of 167 billion US taxpayer dollars. But the end of easy credit in the world has stressed all economies whether their banks were the gamblers or not. And now with credit tight and lenders reluctant, the weaker economies that skated by endlessly on easy credit to keep paying for what they couldn't earn have found themselves insolvent. Who should feel the pain, the lenders who foolishly gave their money to governments who shouldn't have gotten it because they couldn't pay it back or the taxpayers who would have to foot the bill to cover the folly of the lenders? The problem for the EU is that unless the lenders are paid back, there will be no more borrowing. Heads they lose, tails they lose. There's no way out, no way to put it off for another day this time. Even if the politicians try to, the markets won't allow it. They are utterly ruthless, merciless, and totally unforgiving when it comes to dealing with salvaging what they can when they find themselves in a crisis. There is no compromise, no waiting, no stopping them. Once the rush to exit the Euro begins in ernest, it will drop like a rock in a pond. A 90% fall in value in one week would not surprise me.
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In my opinion, a good thing is wait until the fog clears, maybe by about Wednesday next week.
The last real crisis in Spain was in 1981 when an attempted military coup was mounted by elements of the army and the Civil Guard.
Tanks were on the streets of Valencia and the Civil Guard invaded Parliament and fired shots into the ceiling.
The King as Commander-in-Chief went on Television in full military uniform and demanded loyalty from the Regional Military Government. Fortunately they complied and it was all over but it was a close run thing.
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So remember you heard it here first from MDLiS...... Wednesday of nest week there is to be the start of another revolution in Spain!
I suspect that there might be revolution in Greece before then as people realise that, as ever, it is the plebians who have to pay for the excesses of the patriarchs.
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MAII
Re #52
In the odd way you suggest the analogy with the nuclear strike by US on Europe is just about right: Of course, the rest of the World got nuked too!
For sure, in continental Europe the effect almost 2 years down the line from the 'sub-prime' scandal has been the calamitous fall of the value of the EUro, after it appeared to have weathered the actual Financial storm better than many currencies inc. Dollar & Pound.
Naturally, this is all down to 'Market Forces': At least that is what the 'leadership' of the EU-EUro-zone would have everyone believe, 'blame it on speculators' (much like George Soros got all the UK Government stick for ERM debacle), but the reality is much more prosaic.
The EUro-zone is a false Fiscal entity: There is no EUro-economy backing it and the 'markets' did not decide to plunge a knife in, it never was a viable 'one-size-fits-all' Currency option. To imagine Germany through to Cyprus basing their economies on the same 'valued' currency is the economics of a EUro-disney and not serious Financial management of European affairs.
There is nothing wrong with having a EUro Currency: It is a reasonable unit of exchange.
But no, the EU-Brussels fantasisers have to dress up every initiative or cross-border thing they touch as some miracle pan-European cure for the 'common cold'! Well, this time it took a decade to expose their snake-oil for what it really is, but better now than after the EUro had embedded itself across the whole EU27.
Funny, for the last 10 days I haven't read, heard, seen the 'pro-EU' lobbyists spouting off about how Iceland etc. are all desperate to join the 'zone'!?
This is not an attack on the EU or EUro, it is an appeal for sensible, reasonable assessment of what 'unity' can and cannot achieve across Europe: Could the supporters of Brussels just for once swallow their pride and admit this has been and is an ongoing total Fiscal-Economic cock-up by the EU?
A little contrition amongst the EU evangelists just might go a long way toward a better approach to the whole matter of supra-National unification!
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I do not understand why there is so much scepticism about the Franco-German pledge of support Greece if it becomes necessary. It is obviously very much in their interest to do so and furthermore very easy for them. All they need to do is to arrange permission for the ECB to buy Greek government bonds, just as the BoE has been buying UK bonds. This would cost Eurozone taxpayers nothing.
The real problem is reducing the deficits of Greece and the other countries in the medium and long term. The debate should be about the relative merits of the right wing solution - reduce expenditure, and the left wing solution - increase taxation.
President Sarkozy might well remind Mrs Merkel about the fate of many of those in his country who, towards the end of the 18th century, refused to contemplate taxation of the privileged, as a solution to France's financial problems.
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I've just been reading Jean Quatremar's blog "bruxelles coulisses de pouvoir", where he interviewed Juncker after the EU meeting.
It' seems to me that the market is now engaged in some 'arm-wrestling' with the Eurozone. Juncker, for his part, is clear. The EU members will do whatever it needs to ensure that Greece does not cause difficulties elsewhere (the domino effect?) but refused to be specific about what those measures might include. If the markets don't take the hint, then that is up to them - but they won't win their bets against Greece. (I wonder why should the EU members declare their hand before they need to - if they need to?)
One thing he kept on repeating was that any support would require reciprocal action from Greece. There were hints that, since Greece had not asked for direct financial aid (ie money) and looked unlikely to, any support would be via the markets. (Anyway, it's well understood that Germany is too strict about the Eurozone rules to be party to any direct financial help).
And, let's face it, Greece's economy is smaller than many US states' - and look how many of those have defaulted without the dollar being hit.
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Mason-Dixon;
"As far as economics go, as nobody really know what is going on, never mind why, so I guess your views are as good or as bad as anybody else's."
Actually lots of people do including me. About the only thing I wasn't aware of until the crisis was the CDSs. I knew about the CMOs for years. Many people watch the markets, the economy, study them carefully and listen to lots of expert opinions not because they like to or do it for a living but because it is in their own self interest. One way or another, all of our financial fates are tied to markets and economies. Just because you don't understand them and aren't interested doesn't mean everyone else feels the same way. Knowing which way the tide is moving and the wind is blowing gives you a better chance of not being dashed against the rocks or sinking.
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Why should we not take France and Germany at their word? What would be the alternative if they did let Greece fail? Well quite simply horrific.
A sovereign debt default within the Euro area would be an enormous shock with repercussions as great as Lehmans. Anyone remember Russia in 1997 with the resulting collapse of LTCM? If one goes down then Spain, Portugal and Ireland could be next with the UK and Italy not too far behind. Central Europe has been in trouble for over a year. We have seen how sentiment can change over night and cause capital markets to seize up and almost implode, so the consequences for governments effectively at the mercy of them is severe. With the international finance system still so fragile and many governments having nationalised billions of their bad debts it could be left to other nations to step in. The USA is certainly in no position to help with a Marshall Plan II if things get really bad. Anyone for China?
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The following is an excerpt from a blog written by Stepanie Flanders, economics editor for beeb.
"The biggest fear, voiced privately by officials in Germany and the UK - is that the crisis will follow the usual trajectory for European currency crises.
This would be the traditional script: the leaders come up with what they consider to be a strong statement of support for Greece after they meet tomorrow. Investors read it. They ask, exactly, what it means. The leaders fall back on a mixture of hand gestures and verbal fudge (or worse, they each give clear, but completely contradictory answers)."
Talk about hitting the nail on the head.
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frenchderek (#73) "And, let's face it, Greece's economy is smaller than many US states' - and look how many of those have defaulted without the dollar being hit."
No US state has defaulted on its general obligation bonds since the Civil War (1860s). Some think California may be the first since then, but it remains to be seen.
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The real issue is that the governments have taken no actions to change the instruments used by banks...everything that the banks used to created the uninsured process is still in use today..amazing.. but it does reflect how weak-willed the governments are. If a more widespread crisis develops it will not be isolated as the global bankers have made sure of that. There are junctures in history when shifts occur,Mongols, Greece, Rome, Renaisance, Dark Ages, Industrial Revolution, Technolgy Age and each requires a departure from the old to establish the new. Each transition brought with it a new form of governmental organization. I am not saying that the change will be positive as Mao and Hitler and Stalin all came from such recent changes. The people simply decide that the governmental structures need to be changed and that is that. In the East and West it has always been the same, consolidation of wealth, government for and by the wealthy and economic abuse of the people.
Sit tight the final pages of the global banking betrayal and their governmental handmaids has yet to be written.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Call me arrogant anytime you want, but I prefer that a 1000x time rather than making statements such as :
"Perhaps we are seeing the return to the Gold Standard as the true global currency?" Post 5
In short, there are so much (toilet) paper-money in the wider world, compared to real, physical reserve gold in central banks, that you would both need massive currency devaluations and worldwide wealth contraction, before achieving a feasible gold/paper convertibility.
"I suspect that somewhere in Europe a printer has just received an order to print Drachma's as fast as he can" post 10
Yeah, in your dreams
"Swiss banking regulations are very strict, requiring large percentages of capital to be kept by each bank. Then there is the fact that the swiss banking and insurance industries have never once suffered a depression or collapse." post 14
UBS is still a swiss bank, right ? one that was convicted of aggressively advising tax-evaders in several countries, forging documents to allow illegal iranian bank transfers in the US, and was bailed-out by the Swiss Federal government in 08.
"Unfortunately for Europe, the only nation that has a lot of gold is the USA ... " post 16
well, by now, we both now that Eurozone countries have 8.5k+ tonnes, the USA 8k+ tonnes, the IMF 3k+ tonnes, and the UK 500+ kg
"If Britain with its powerful economy joins the euro now they will save the day and will spare the euro months of trouble" post 28
is it the "powerful economy" or the "joins the euro" or the "save the day" that is the most fantasist ?
Post 43 ... well, let's leave the closet conspiracy theorists to their own closets.
Post 50 ... improvement ? add chauvinism to a conspiracy theorist, and you get MA in bonus (not to be confused with a MBA)
post 52 haha
"With the falling Euro and oil priced in US dollars the cost of gasoline may beocme so high in Europe you may have no other choice." post 58
the Euro is still valued at 1.36 USD, basically its value in sum'09 (http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html) ... whoaa, talk about a catastrophe !!
actually, quite a few exporters are glad it's not 1.5 USD anymore, like in late 09.
"A 90% fall in value in one week would not surprise me." Post 68
Yeah, right. Just see above.
Depending on valuation rules, you might be correct in claiming that US bank were, overall, less over-leveraged than their European counterpart.
But you would have to exclude UK and Swiss banks from that statement in order to apply it to the Eurozone ... and that would just make it void.
...
Best regards,
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Wow Olympic games began! The ice totems, multiple eskomos ? es?, some prairie chaps (I like the one with the multicoloured tail) and overall total Fenimor Cooper. I think :o)
Russian TV says "For those who studied badly at school we remind - Vancouver is on the Pacific Coast of Canada!" :o)))
And "it's minus 10 here twice a year, on average :o))), I swear I saw a man in a shirt and shorts!"
Wonderful views.
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Starbuck11
Re #80
"..arrogant.."
So, as far as any of us could work out from your contribution it's your contention there is no crisis for Greece, the Euro (zone), PIGS, Germany's economy etc. The EU27 meeting, Merkel, Sarkozy, Brown, von Rompuy, World Media, Currency Markets etc. making statements about these matter have all got it wrong?
Good to know you've got your finger on the fading pulse of Europe's economies!
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"I know that for the last few years and even now if I had Euros to use instead of pounds changing then into Euros I would had been better off." (ChrisArta, 44)
Sorry, I don't understand that comment. Although we're not in the eurozone, it's perfectly feasible for you to convert your cash between sterling and euro (or any other major currency), and, as far as I know, to do so in unlimited amounts. True, there is the inconvenience and the conversion costs, but any significant advantage of the euro over sterling would have outweighed these. Have you looked into this?
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It is easy to track the past performance of one convertable currency against another on the internet. Predicting future performance is an entirely different matter. Currency speculation is a huge industry with the worldwide trading volume being well over a trillion dollars a day. It entails the same risks as any other speculative purchase. And paraphrasing the famous words of the wise departed Louis Rukeyser, for every trader that buys a currency thinking it will go up, there's another trader selling it who thinks it will go down.
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Marcus, I would agree that asking some guy in a suit about the future is pretty optimistic.
However there are some guys who tend to have good reasons for believing what they believe. Such as a lifetime doing serious research.
One of my favourite authors and historians is Niall Ferguson. I disagree with him fundamentally on quite a few things, but I am in awe of his work ethic and general writing style. I guess I can't share his contempt of humanism, which is not to say I am right, as far as understanding and predicting the world is concerned.
He answered the following question in June 2008:
" Q: Let’s turn to global finance. Is the US dollar going to get hammered?
The pessimists have been painting this scenario for a while. The assumption is that if the US current account deficit got to be this large sooner or later there will be a run on the dollar. But paradoxically the dollar has appreciated in this crisis. The worse the crisis got the stronger it became. So where would you out your money? The Chinese have asked themselves this. What else can we hold? Euros? Well clearly the problem with the Euro is Europe. Europe’s financial problems are worse than those of the US. The European banks are in a worst place than the US banks – a lot more leveraged, far fewer write downs, and much more exposed to eastern Europe and east Asia. The European bank crisis is coming and when it comes, it will be hard to see a good future for the European Union and the Euro. I don’t really buy the idea that the dollar yields to some other currency."
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In the end, the crisis is going to be useful for showing shortcomings and will have helped to address them. We will emerge stronger.
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Gheryando wrote:
"In the end, the crisis is going to be useful for showing shortcomings and will have helped to address them. We will emerge stronger."
I am delighted to learn that the bankers and the others elites of Europe are in this together with me. Here was I thinking that I was being farmed by them for their private profit, and that there was no "we".
So, if the bankers would kindly step out of their bentlys, we can all join hands and sing kumbyah before I go off to work to pay more tax.
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@85 DT
Interesting that you mention historian Niall Ferguson
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niall_Ferguson
His refutal of historical myths pertaining to WWI, must have had some influence on Jukka Rohila earlier comments (re: German/British imperial aggressivity).
Anyway, like Tony Benn, being intellectually challenging doesn't necessarily make you right.
Best regards,
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@82 CBW
That's misreading my comments.
I can understand that having my post @79 moderated, because I dared to use links to Mr Hewitt's earlier entries on Mr Hewitt's own blog (BBC !!) might confuse you.
Therefore, if capable of intellectual honesty, learn how to read. If not, well ... what's new ?
Best regards,
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dt;
"The European bank crisis is coming and when it comes, it will be hard to see a good future for the European Union and the Euro. I don’t really buy the idea that the dollar yields to some other currency."
That is my opinion of the situation as well. The inefficient market theory may be right insofar as the market not reacting to fundimentals right away but in the end, I think the fundimentals will always win out. In this case the findimentals of the US and the EU are very different. The similarities are only superficial. There may seem to be commonality in the current circumstances and what led up to them but in the long run, America has the capacity to recover and prosper again, it has faced and overcome far worse in the past. Its underlying strengths are enormous. Europe's fundimentals and its ability to recover without massive outside help very dubious. This time I don't think it will get any. The totally unnecessary and irrational confrontation Europe sought with the US starting around 10 years ago will have dire consequences no one could have forseen. Any American politician even suggesting that America help bail out Europe would be committing instant political suicide. Nobody here really cares what happens to it anymore.
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starbuck wrote:
" Anyway, like Tony Benn, being intellectually challenging doesn't necessarily make you right."
Yes, but you should try it anyway. It's ever so more refreshing than being condescending.
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@91
That's quite true.
As a very general rule, it would be good for you to always remember it.
Also, cherrypicking citations to suit your tastes, is your absolute right.
Though, that doesn't make your opinions more factual.
Best regards,
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Meeeeoooow, meeeeoooow!
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Thank you Mr.Hewitt for the enlightenment! I am sure now Mr. Gordon Brown just wanted to say “The Islands and the rest” instead of “it was a matter for the euro area…”
Poor Mrs.Merkel, poor Mr.Sarkozy… I guess it is high time to close up the Euro tunnel.
Sofia, Febr. 14th 2010
Generalissimo
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Wasnt talking about the bankers. Was talking about the system of governance etc for the safeguarding of the stability of the euro.
P.s. I'm no hippie
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Still about money?
Right.
Mavrelius, your team Olympics' openeing ceremony knitted hat is 65 dollars! without delivery, which is in my case USA-Britain and from there I'll get it somehow re-sent to me.
65 !!! that one, with embroidered ? elk? Bamby? deer, I mean, with antlers.
aj jaj jaj, and I watched the opening ceremony with such eh, vested :o))) interest. and a careful eye :o))))
Well, the Canadian mittens, red, with the leaf, are 10. On the official Olympics' site. At least, something :o))))
Talking about money! When Russia has already lost one of the main survival skills :o)))) competition, I mean, that partisan training, girls running on the skies and shooting on the go :o)))) Getting all places possible but not the ones with metal pan-cakes! :o)))) The gold is also ours, but she married a Slovanian or a Slovakian, hard to tell. :o( so it's not ours. And only her brother stayed in the team, he'll run still for Russia and shoot around, tomorrow I think, or the day after.
:o(
What use is sleigh business these days hard to tell. :o) Typical James Bond activity, seems to me.
The rest is simply non-appliccable :o)))
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This reminds me of the 90s Asian bubble recession. There, the IMF and World Bank jumped in. The Asians came back.
This is like vulture time here. Maybe owls lol WA will win the day and the whole of Europe will come back....unlike some here, there ARE people working and neeeding the economy to come back strong...
Sometimes I think we people look with relish at tragedy and forget our time will also come.
So, good for the French and German Responsible actions.
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WA;
"Mavrelius, your team Olympics' openeing ceremony knitted hat is 65 dollars! without delivery, which is in my case USA-Britain and from there I'll get it somehow re-sent to me."
It was probably made in China for less than 65 cents. Why not just order one direct from the factory in Shanghai? BBC once interviewed the owner of the largerst manufaturer of pins and badges in the world, a guy from China. He made the badges for fire departments in Italy, the badges for New York City Police Department, etc. So he said he made the campaign buttons (pins) for a political rally in the US. His cost to make them was 2 cents each. He sold them for 6 cents each. The cost to people buying them at retail at a political rally at a sports stadium in San Diego California was 2 dollars, one hundred times what it cost to make them. What a markup. He said only 10 cents of every dollar of wealth produced in China stays in China. If you look up GNI to GDP ratio for China it's closer to 15 percent. For th US it's 85 percent. IMO Gross National Income and per capital Gross National Income is a far more useful indication of how well an economy is doing than GDP.
"...but she married a Slovanian or a Slovakian, hard to tell."
Slovenian, Slovokian, Slobovian what the hell's the difference? Sometimes I wonder if half the time they even know the difference themselves :-)
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Sometimes I think China is planning on ruling the world with its hand up the .. of the USA like a puppet.
Someone sais what about China ..(bailing Europe out. So, don't rule out Marshall Plan II with China pulling the strings and supplying the money ..thru a US loan.
China is good at "face." Hmmm, wonder what we will have pay for that? Taiwan? Freehand in Russia's back yard?
No offense, WA,
but WE all need to get it together fast to avoid these scenarios. Siberia, anyone?..biggest deposit of untapped commodities...in world other than Africa?
We in the US are possibly tapped out..hmm maybe our parks could be..uh ohhhh...watch out world (jeremiad only)
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David;
Have no fear. Now that you've seen the numbers I referenced regarding GNI, consider that China has very little in the way of natural resources. It has to import most of what it needs, lots of coal from Australia. It's buying up Africa like mad. But the US has vast quantities of fossil fuel too. A 200 year supply of coal, the US is the Saudi Arabia of coal. The US has 420 trillion cubic feet of proven off shore natural gas reserves. The Democrats don't even want the oil companies exploring for oil, they're afraid they'll find it, lots of it. Just recently it was discovered that Venezuela has far more oil than was previously believed. Now the estimate is that it has at least twice as much as Saudi Arabia in just one field. The world is not about to run short of fossil fuel and certainly America won't. But getting it from where its at to where it's needed is for Europe and China a logistical problem, for us a political problem. I think eventually the Democrats will have to relent and allow America's oil, gas, and coal companies do their jobs. We don't have to import any oil, we can develop technologies to use the fuels we already know we have. We just buy other people's in order to keep our own in reserve.
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WA;
Is it this one for $19.95?
http://www.shopwintergames.com/Olympics_USA_Olympics_Hats/Nike_2010_Winter_Olympics_USA_Ladies_White_Pom_Knit_Beanie
Still looks like a ripoff to me. I'll bet I'll see it for $6 in a flea market one of these days. Who cares?
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That is why im so pro Europe...fear of the unknown..
thanks Marcus.
DS
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WA;
Don't know why the KGBBC censored my posting. It was a link to shopwintergamesdotcom.
They had this US knitted Olympic hat, white with a pom pom and the US olympic team logo on the front;
Nike 2010 Winter Olympics USA Ladies White Pom Knit Beanie
In Stock
Price: $19.95
Ladies, cover your head from the cold in USA pride during the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver with this cute beanie with a team-colored pom at the top by Nike!
Double layer knit beanie
Quality embroidery
Team color stripes
Pom at top
One size fits most
Imported
100% Acrylic
Seems like an awful lot of money for a knitted beanie hat. I'll bet after the olympics you'll see them all over the place in the US like at flea markets for about 5 or 6 dollars.
How much is a nice fur Russian hat. I'll bet it's just as warm :-)
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And, today, I had to raise my computer's zoom level to 125 % ..talk about traumatic.
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Or Kick Greece out...of the EURO--temp.... til they get their house in order--10 yrs...let's say... and say to the other PIGS nations ...
"Let that be a lesson to you."
Prob solved..
and the EURO is saved and Greece has to rely on trade--only plus other benefits of union--for 10 yrs max (or til budget is balanced)
Poverty is not so bad... without crime and With the sunshine of the Agean [sic] Sea.
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To David (105):
Value of currency comes from the ability to use it. Usability of currency comes out of two factors, from the ability to use the money in future and from the amount of partners willing to do trading with it.
In case of Greece and other countries deemed in some media to be "unworthy" on belonging to Euro, the media doesn't seem to understand that usability of Euro goes down if PIGS countries aren't part of it as they count for 33% of GDP (nominal) and 39% of population of the Eurozone. While it is somewhat true that countries like Greece do increase fiscal and political instability of the Eurozone, making the markets either to ask questions such as "is Eurozone going to brake up" or "is ECB going to print money" thus lowering future value of Euro, it is still small in comparison to benefits on having Greece and other countries using Euro.
We should also factor on what potential costs of having Greece and other "PIGS" counties on not using Euro. Much of the reason why we have Euro is due to need to lower transaction and risk costs when doing inter-border trading inside Europe. For example to countries like Finland belonging to Euro is essential, as we import commodities, components and industrial machinery that we use to build higher value added products and services that we then export. Without Euro we would have to make more currency trading and we would have to protect more against changing of exchange values, which could mean that most of our industries would be uncompetitive or moving production to China would be more profitable than continuing working here.
I have said before, and I say it again, the brake up of Eurozone is not going to happen. Euro is much needed tool for the economies and industries of Europe that any difficulty will in time meet up with right remedies to maintain the currency union.
PS. To ChrisArta in "Fear that shadows the euro", comment 117.
ECB loans money to Eurozone banks with the same interest rate regardless of their country of origin. Furthermore as the whole Eurozone is moving into SEPA system, all transactions inside the Eurozone will be domestic, in essence there isn't any difference on transferring money between banks residing in different countries. Actually the introduction of SEPA will start the consolidation of the European banking system as a bank residing in one Eurozone country can serve the whole Eurozone with one organization and with one financial and information system. In the following decade we will see fusion of Eurozone banking system leading into handful of European banks serving the whole Eurozone. This will be the final weld that will cement the Eurozone.
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oj, Jukka back. Jukks, a very un-responsible post, not a word about hats. And this is when it's fashion time, to get equipped with something cute, for winters between these and the next winter olympics.
I even start doubting now; did your team wear something , at all?
Something with the memory? Were you in bright green colours? no, it was not you, couldn't h been.
MA Acryl is of course a no-go, I was vaguely hoping the deer thing is wool. Ralph Lauren after all and all. Will look up the site you mentioned.
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And I am thinking, English berets, in 2 colours, with an emblem on the side, were also cute. Type 1st WW times or? there is some ancient feeling about them somehow, but looked very becoming to the whole team, must explore deeper.
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Jukka @#106
You wrote, "I have said before, and I say it again, the brake up of Eurozone is not going to happen. Euro is much needed tool for the economies and industries of Europe that any difficulty will in time meet up with right remedies to maintain the currency union."
I admire your loyal faith to your adopted currency and do accept that the Euro will endure but the issue is not that the Euro as a currency will somehow crash to an end but how it will be supported to prevent it becoming worthless in the pocket of Eurozone citizens.
I think that the majority of European nations are looking to Germany to pledge financial support for the Greek Economy but Germany does have its own problems with a stagnant economy and any loans or bond purchasing intervention using German wealth will have a significant effect on the living standards of Germans. It is also true to say that even if there was to be a Europe-wide committment to loans or Greek bond purchasing the same downside factors apply to any other European nation that gets involved.
It is true to say that the Euro is descending in value may, in the short term, not actually be a bad thing as it will bolster export but if the Euro is allowed to descend to a too low a level it will be the citizens resident in the Eurozone who will suffer as domestic prices rise, inflation ensues and costs of living get extremely difficult.
There is an argument to be had that internal Greek government intervention may work and any pain be limited to that endured by the Greeks but, if that effort is not successful and the Greek government is unable to resist the will of the Greeks to endure the austerity being imposed upon them then the Euro will come under extreme stress and the Eurozone politicians will have to make a decision to intervene or continue to pursue laissez-faire disengagement.
Either way the peoples of the Eurozone are likely to be in for a hard time if the Euro continues to fall in value.
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David, (China's) "free-hand in Russia's back yard", "to avoid these scenarious", then Mavrelius consoling David "but we've got all own, haven't yet began to exploit it, keeping in back-up, buying others" and that China, by itself, has got nil, is buying Africa (and buying Russia, I'd add).
I wrote on that, at a post that was swallowed, and that I promised Jan Keeskop to bring back, one of these days :o) (where we "discussed" with Jan Keeskop Kuril's islands business.
Mavrelius, David has healthy American reaction, of the America as it used to be before, and which we all liked :o) before you got eh oh eh, completely forgetting yourself.
Until you got all mad about the Cold war and acquired other wrong habits re the preferred mode of operation, how to say, life-style (heavy print of the 20th century) the key question that arouse in American politics in that Far East corner (btw Japan, Russia, China etc. whoever is there) has always been "Who controls the Trans-Siberian magistral route?"
Like, that was first wake up US question, happen anything in that corner - Question 1 - Good morning gentlemen, who controls it today?
And until you got eh, well, I already mentioned :o) you used to always arrive to the conclusion that "better Russia than them".
Because, until we all became, eh, well, I already mentioned :o))) you somehow realised that Russia is not a competitor to the US in the Pacific, because it knows where its front door is for entry/exit and that is Europe.
While the Far East is Russian back closet, and no mad people receive visitors through breaking the back wall of their back closet with jams and stores, and overall, how to say, normal people accept guests in the living room, European Russia, and don't let strangers poke around in their trunks and treasure trunks and stores and arrange tours in the closets behind the kitchen. It's a private quiet area :o))) where the less noise - the better, and any un-healthy activity and buzz is not desirable. All Russia ever wanted is to have it there peace and quiet without extra eyes. And locked.
Accordingly, before it all began, the USA was playing a game there historically, seeing that neither Japan nor China have an upper hand there (and that neither does Russia), namely - supporting us when we were about to lose, and supporting Japan when they were about to lose. To the result that it stayes the status quo.
You only began to play the Japan side heavy after they became an invaluable resource for you a platzdarm to keep an eye on China (when communistic China emereged), and that's when the USA took to supporting Japan in their mad desired to get more of Kurils from us to the collection. Type a return hospitality to Japan for them proving a hospitality to you and all.
You simply don't know own American history of the 19th century or rather forgot.
What 19th, as late as 1918 the USA was still Russia's side in the Far East.
Soneone gave here earlier a list of American invasions worldwide, where it said "Russia 1919", well that was quite a thing, that one we forgive you royally, :o)))) you can cross it out of the list.
That was so called "intervention" time, when all ran like hawks to post revolution Russia, weakened with revolution and the Civil war and all upside down type Perestroyka, with the announced interest "to fight the spread of Bolshevism" and in un-advertsied reason "to grabatise a piece ASAP".
So, while all normal people tried to get a snippet of Russia for themselves, Finland made war and came 8 miles of St. Petersburg pondering "to take it as well? or wait?", announced Murmansk "a traditional Finnish land", grabbed what not
When Poland grabatised future to become Belourussia and Lithuania and Moldova and a good chunk of Ukraine
Britain landed in Arkhankelsk another traditional British land :o)))) piece one would think
etc,
in other words when all normal people tried to snatch a piece - what did USA do?
The USA have landed from their side, in the Pacific, in the Russian Far East. With one and only aim that the weakened Russia save God does not lose it to Japan. ! Took quite a large area and, practically - kept it for us! To the degree that when the American ships were leaving - an incredible but true thing - communistic Red Army when it finally walked over :o)))) up to there - was seeing the US Navy off with orchestra-s, kisses and embraces and like "come again, we'll miss you awful!"
That's how you fought communism in the Russian Far East sorry to remind you because you clearly aren't aware of that. Lenin was eternally thankful to you.
Yes, China has nil. And it better continues in that mode I dare say, because since they got a hand in our Siberia and Far East resources (as we got yet again weakened by Perestroyka and revolution) - it has lifted up on those resources greatly. Not on Africa and US technologies alone, there is another angle to their success.
MariaAshot here earlier pointed me out that "while Russians are busy inventing the 1001 recepie for vodka, the Chinese make not only Russian balalayka, but many other musical instruments and do it it quiet well".
Well I will not start sobbing in happiness on hearing of these Chinese acheievements, I am sorry, because all those "musical instruments" and ha ha if it were only balalayka-s - are made of Russian wood.
There is a curious pattern these past 10 years - the amount of wood that China officially reports and registers as "imported out of Russia" is , how to say, what we register as "sold to China", yearly, is 1/9 of what China annually reports as "imported from Russia".
Our papers never agree, and by horrible margin.
What does it mean? It means they smuggle it out, and they account for it, they are honest people :o)))) their state taxes these "imports" and keeps a count of them. The un-authorised for cuttingg Russian trees, for which there has never been issued what's called here "a cutting ticket".
And they mostly happen to be not-allowed for cuts at all the tree kinds, prohibited in Russia for cutting at all - when you see the Chinese spread table, by types of cut wood.
It's a state Chinese strategy, they encourage smuggling of resources from Siberia. I am sorry when someone smuggles something there are always 2 sides to it - one who sells and one who buys.
Imagine a man comes to the EU borderline to cross and says "and these 20 trucks behind me, with wood" are "with me". The first questions will be "who are you?" Are you a company? Where are your papers? What do you mean "with you", if you want to cross into the EU. What's the destination of this wood, where it says that you are the rightful owner of it. You simply can't imagine such a situation on, say, our border with Estonia. While with China - no questions are asked, and one doesn't een have to "come to the borderline", Chinese will come up into Siberia themselves, and take the wood out.
Anyway. Mavrelius keep in mind you are finding it worrying to compete with China when it smuggles the contents of Russian closet, when it settles there save god I am not sure you'll be able to "compete" LOL, in spite of all your sleeping stocks.
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It's not Russia's fault that America forgot how to be a normal America and got into that un-natural American-Japanese friendship :o))) mode, while you were always traditional competitors for the Pacific.
Or does anyone think the Pearl Harbour happened just out of the blue sky, some hell knows where located Japan, that never had anything to "discuss" with the USA, simply as their left hind paw jerked so decided to go and attack the USA.
You used to have a thing with them before, and for quite a long time.
Before you decided that Russia is your far better enemy for the Far East, a notion, absolutely un-based geo-politically.
That you keep Japan tamed, that's your business - but it is business, not nature relaxed by itself type an arrangement.
So you sit there, keep Japan tamed, and look at China, from the position you've taken. Well, if you can not do better than to stare silly :o)))) I guess, that's all there is to it :o))))
Anyway, back to "1001" recepie of vodka as was opposed to Chinese balalayka achievemnts.
Yes! I mean, bad, of course.
But, as Russian alcoholics traditionally point out :o) - "but we drink "na svoi" - on own money.
Anyway that's your business
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David;
"Or Kick Greece out...of the EURO--temp.... til they get their house in order"
That won't work. For one thing it isn't clear the EU has a legal mechanism to justify it. They had the Growth and Stability pact in Maastrict which limited annual deficits to 3% of GDP but they got rid of it. This was originally put into Maastrict at the insistance of France and Germany and would have imposed severe fines each year to keep Euro countries on the straight and narrow, or at least within manageable debt. (Actually what they should have had was an additional requirement for long term balanced budgets or they would have eventually gotten to where they are now it just would have taken a lot longer.) But France and Germany themselves couldn't live within those restrictions because they couldn't finance the huge social safety nets that their populations had come to expect as their birthright. When the issue was brought before the EU court which should have imposed billions of Euros in fines on each of them, they somehow "persuaded" the corrupt court to throw the G&S Pact out because they bought the argument that it was "obsolete." So this opened the floodgate.
The problem with building a network, any network whether it is an electrical power grid or a common currency with the thought that the whole will be stronger than the sum of its parts is that first each component must be strong to begin with and kept in good repair. Second there must be one or more mechanisms built into the grid to isolate a failure in the event it occurs so that it doesn't bring down the entire network with it. The Euro had neither of these. The G&S pact was supposed to be the first but it was removed. The second wasn't supposed to be necessary. Now with the first having failed after many years of lying about accounts and irresponsibility have caught up with it in this time of tight credit even for worthy borrowers, the EU and Euroland are scrambling to improvise the second. But who will make the sacrifice and what will happen when the other PIIGS follow down the same road? Anyway, if Euroland could kick Greece out and then presumably the rest of the PIIGS, that in itself might erode confidence in the Euro, exactly the opposite of what is intended. It would indicate that the EU Bank had concluded that these countries economies are not salvagable without ravaging the Euro doing it. And that might be right. Holders of Euros might begin to wonder where it all ends and rush to the exit. Remember, the market for anything including currency will not wait around to find out how the EU sorts this out satisfactorily. Markets know only two things, greed and fear. Right now fear is becoming the operative emotion and when that happens, there is a flight to what is perceived to be relative safety. That flight is more like beaming up to the USS Enterprise, it is done with a few strokes on a computer keyboard and is executed in a second.
If I had money tied up in Euros or assets that are directly convertable to Euros I'd get out now. If you don't like the US dollar or Japanese yen, buy Swiss francs. Or gold. Some years ago the Euro was 75 cents to the US dollar. It could easily fall back to that or even much lower. I'm predicting within two years at some point it will be worth less than 50 cents, maybe even less than half that. But like all market tea leaf readers that could be wrong. Nobody knows what the future will really bring. Most ignored the ominous warning clouds that were clearly visible on the horizon all along anyway. Now the storm is just about on top of them. All that may be left is hand ringing and praying as time has run out.
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"Germans say euro zone may have to expel Greece"
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20100214/tts-uk-eurozone-germany-ca02f96.html
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Just a quick brain teaser for all of you, can anyone tell us just how many Eurozone countries are actually below the 3% maximum limit to be allowed to be a member of the Eurozone. It seems Greece is over 12% judging by several articles and I'm guessing Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland are almost certainly over the 3% limit. I remember both France and Germany were ignoring that limit some years back, so lets hear from the Euro supporters exactly who, if any, are still entitled to be a part the Eurozone.
PS. Continued evasiveness of such rules by countries merely affirms that the Euro was simply a political decision with no actual value, and an accident waiting to happen as we are seeing now. I recall that at the introduction of the Euro there were many experts who concluded it's success would only be known when the first real crisis hits, the juries out now.
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B23;
"Continued evasiveness of such rules by countries merely affirms that the Euro was simply a political decision with no actual value, and an accident waiting to happen as we are seeing now."
Before the Euro, the UK, one of the stronger EU economies couldn't stay within the ERM (exchange rate mechanism), the range that was required by treaty for their currency to match the other ERM currencies. The government said it would fall out of the required range. As the UK dithered, George Soros took a gamble that the UK would have no choice. He placed a huge bet and when the UK caved it, he reportedly took them for one billion dollars in one night. I think the the UK government never acknowledged that fact but it is widely believed and almost certainly true. The markets don't play games and they don't just wait around forever. When they decide to move, it is fast and hits like a two by four in the face.
So if one of the most powerful economies and more responsible governments can't keep control over itself why should anyone be surprised that those like Greece and Portugal can't either. Do European economists know what they are doing? Of course not. In 2000 when the US looked like it was headed for recession they said it would not affect Europe, there was no longer a linkage. Except for the UK which didn't suffer much in that recession, the EU hadn't recovered until long after that recession was ancient history in the US. If you have money to play with and like risks, understand something about the currency markets, this might be a golden opportunity to take a bet against them. Shorting the Euro now could prove very profitable. I wouldn't be surprised is Soros and his aides have been very busy at their computer keyboard lately lining up their next coup.
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Yo Alice as in Yo Adrian (you'd a have to been there)
We got this ice skater, Johnny Weir, would has been threatened by anti-fur group. As a result he can't leave Olympic village. Seems he had a tuft of white fox fur and his shoulder as part of his get up for the nationals. These figure skaters always come up with far-out costumes. I think he has since switched to acrylic.
My question to you is how active are groups like PETA (? Ethical Treatment of Animals) in Russia. Some of these folks border on terrorist (whatever that is). I know in the South it is a site more dangerous for these groups that it is in say snooty New York. Any PETA members venturing into a swamp in Louisiana to aggravate a bunch of Cajuns might just find the difficulties overwhelming.
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Mr. Hewitt, looks like you overlook one essential element: the Euro isn't weak, it is still 35% too strong vs the dollar at it's initial launch. Eurozone-countries have an interest in the Euro getting closer to it's initial value, therefore decline further, because the -too- strong Euro had and has a negative impact on the export capability of the Eurozone countries. Therefore, don't expect a too strong support for Greece from the other Euro countries. This situation is one that everyone will enjoy, Euro-sceptics because they see this as a weakness of the system, and Euro-supporters, because they see this as a much needed (and still too small) correction.
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"Wall St. Helped Greece to Mask Debt Fueling Europe’s Crisis "
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/global/14debt.html?th&emc=th
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MaudDib,
fur wearing in Russia is 100% risk free. Don't know any PETA or anything. :o) Because the numbers of fur wearers how to say, :o)))) heavily out-weigh the amount of opponents of wearing real fur, so, should they meet - it's clear who'll be beaten and abused :o))))
Myself, I do wear a bit of this a bit of that AND sympathise with the campaign to stop doing what I do - simultaneously :o)))
Kind of the same attitude as to smoking - I smoke and think this is awful.
Same with furs.
As any cat/dog owner I mean one understands it is awful. The furry cahps are so friendly and far better than humans take any respect - brains or sense of humour.
With furs of course helps they are not domesticated, how to say, the poor ones who get skinned and who you wear, that is, you aren't acquainted with them personally :o))) and all.
But I strongly suspect they are also good humoured and friendly. Read once some American or Candian North explorer boo, who spent lots of time with bears and other dangerous folk. he ended up at one point spending a night in a lots forgotten hut together with a bear, who rolled up to him closer for warmth, and so they were snorkeling peacefully side by side to each other, in the darkness :o))) The chap who wrote the book survived somehow and wrote "in order to get to know an animal well - one ought to/or - there is no other way but - to spend with him/her a night in one bed. :o))) That's where understanding arises.
But so far the fur wearers how to say, clearly win on all fronts, and the opponents are close to invisible. Protest twice a year in St. Petersburg, by the main fur sales fair site, where int'l fur trade sessions take place, all world buyers come over to buy furs in bulk.
But they poor chaps are guarded by the police :o)))), from general public :o))) otherwise passers-by might beat them :o))))
I like silver fox, those white-black bushy taily ones :o)))
And I think I like racoon as an idea for a fur-coat, but if it were done not female fashion but like a men's coat popular in your America in may be 1930-s or I don't know when.
When I was small I had a fur coat :o) but not since that. A squirrel one, the first one :o))) typical 3-5 year olds' wear here, then the ? "muton" (sounds like mutton somehow :o))) short-cut sheep one, like a brown short brush (found practical by parents here, as light-weight and stands all the street slegh and whatever exercise of rolling on the ground :o))))
then in teenager years a classic disaster - we all here suffer from it - a black and awful heavy ? "karakul" - astrakhan? baby sheep fur coat, in small tight curls. Absolutely all hate it but are made to wear by parents :o)))
That's our stages - squirrel - "muton" - "karakul"/"astrakhan".
Then you can liberate yourself from all this disaster and wear whatever, but when you get old here again :o))) a Russian female ought to have a mink fur coat , at some stage, otherwise something is lacking in the meaning of life o:))) and you are not complete :o))) as a personality.
I haven't reached mink stages yet because I am poor, but honestly even when I could I avoided, it's not bushy enough wild to my taste, and lousy fur to be honest, in terms of wear and tear. And I think one looks way to , how to say, Ukrainian :o))) in it.
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Though I am thinking along this racoon lines, must admit :o))) men's cut entirely, type of a trench-coat in racoon will be cool I think. They are fluffy and white and grey and unlike mink you won't look like a wet cat in it after the first rain and snow blizzard. Mink will die after a wash. Racoon will cheer up, instead :o)))
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Half a subway in St. petersburg is in mink. It's not anything at all. Boring. A good inflated alaska type, parka, synthetic, is far more difficult to obtain.
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Your skater should survive somehow till Sochi, and to our Olympics (if we all live up to it :o) - he can wear one fluff of acryllic and the rest - fur. And thus, revenge. :o)))
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EUprisoner209456731 @ #118
That's an interesting conspiracy article but it has one or two problems when seen in its entirety .....
The article has the following passage contained within it: "Wall Street did not create Europe’s debt problem. But bankers enabled Greece and others to borrow beyond their means, in deals that were perfectly legal. Few rules govern how nations can borrow the money they need for expenses like the military and health care. The market for sovereign debt — the Wall Street term for loans to governments — is as unfettered as it is vast.
The fact is that Greece hid the transactions - not Goldman Sachs - as described within the article: "That deal, hidden from public view because it was treated as a currency trade rather than a loan, helped Athens to meet Europe’s deficit rules while continuing to spend beyond its means."
And more recently Greece approached Goldman's for more money that was intended to be concealed from the EU but Goldman's declined.
I think it is very easy, given recent event arising from Banking averice leading to global recession, to blame global banks as the bad guys and responsible for all the world's woes but the bald face truth is that Greece has funded its bloated public services, armed services and generous welfare system with false accounting and borrowing far beyond its GDP. It is the fault of both the current and previous Greek governments for the mess that Greece finds itself in now and it was Greece that borrowed the money and fraudulently concealed the debts as they piled up - not Goldman Sachs who lent the money quite legitimately and openly too.
The colloquial phrases "Clutching at straws" and "It was not me Guv!", as used by criminals seeking to defend their character, spring to mind. ;-)
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Yo Alice
What do you think about a raccoon hat. They use to be very popular with early trappers in US. Ala Davey Crockett. Buffalo robes were very popular but I think the best and warmest are clothes made from caribou hides. It's got something to do with the type hair they have. Here's a little excerpt from the movie "Jeremiah Johnson". Every body's got neat duds in this movie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKULLRKDjjU
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WA;
Read Gorky Park. Starts in Moscow, ends in Staten Island. All about Russian sable.
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who is caribou hides? or - "a hide", made of "caribou"?
Is "a hide" a coat or a hat? and who is "caribou" please?
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Menedemus
I am in total agreement with your comments @ 123. We find it convenient to blame current situation on the banks. Lord knows they deserve a beating from time to time but the problem lies in the general populace. If we do not involve ourselves in the running of our governments so as to make them accountable then they will surely be unaccountable. Part of the reason the US is suffering from current crisis is because we elect politicians who look good, speak well and tell us what we want to hear. The evolution of the financial sector is clearly a case where the governments of the world can't get ahead of the curve because they don't know what the hell the curve is much less understand it.
If I subscribe to a dozen credit cards and max them out then whose fault is it. The banks who let me get the cards or me. My daughter got herself into trouble with those cursed pieces of plastic because she didn't understand the terms. Whose fault is that. Well to be honest I think it was mine because I didn't take the time to help her understand the things. I certainly taught her as a child to avoid dangerous chemicals, seedy places, strangers and snake oil salesmen. In a democracy you get what you pay for, one way or the other. The thing that concerns me is when people of a country give up trying to take part in the way their country is run. Are you listening Alice. (By the way Alice, when you decide to run for the el Presidente or what ever, please let me know as I would surely be glad to contribute to the cause. This of course does not include money as I have none.)
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Yo Alice
"reindeer"
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MaudDib, for men (we think) good is beaver. For the ? neck? collar, of an ordinary woolen coat. That's quiet, decent and un-obliging city dweller look. Still, fluffy furs :o) are either for girls or for eh, wild-life leading men, there, in the open :o) In the city life beavers are good. They stand pollution well :o)))) car exhausts :o))). Beavers never wear out at all. A collar for the next 100 years for the family plus :o))) Kind of boring, though, right. But it can get under water, into snow-rain or plain rain. Beavers just shake it off :o))) Sensible, practical. And boring, right.
Still, say, if it's a whole beaver's men fur coat - it is not "boring".
Especially if it's lined inside, in beaver, very decent and not showy, and only seen in bits and pieces outside, as a hint. Though of course it's waste of money, to line a "fur coat" inside, not fur outside (especially if it is beaver, born for outside wear) - but any fur coat facing inside is far more "rich" (in understanding :o) than the one facing outwards. A stronger message :o)
Watched that film piece, never saw it before or heard of it. MaudDib, they aren't exactly Fifth Avenue dressed up in there :o)))
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oj Mavrelius, sable, oh. It is born with a purpose in life :o) - to be a small round trim, around a small female hat. Worn on top of a hair scarf. Sable is very good for eyes. Becoming, to eyes and eye-brows line. Has to be near. Either gives a shadow? or a shine? or a back-ground. Adds something to the complexion. Forgot when I saw a real sable, not farm-grown and not imported.
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We miss 44/1000 a second for a medal in sleigh, before the fourth and the last attempt to start in 10 minutes. Will go walk the dog contribute to Olympionics eh style and worldwide movement.
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#123 & 127
Sure, guns don't kill, people do it (with guns, though, in particular if these are readily available). It is too easy to blame everything on the Greeks (which Greeks, anyway, the poor people struggling to get by on 500 euro per month, the fat cats shifting their money out of Greece these days, or the political class living far removed from what ordinary Greeks experience ?), and thereby exonerating the bankers. Most of the comments to the NYT piece complained about the bankers, since they will do it again in other places if the opportunity arises, including the UK and the USA.
While it is trendy to blame the victims, a wider view of the problem would take into account the unpalatable behaviour of part of the banking world, which saddled everybody up with 'toxic' debts, etc. in the first place. Whatever one may think about the EU, the euro, Brown, Blair, Bush, Obama, etc., regulating these 'market forces' may help bring about peace of mind for the majority of people who do not understand all these 'modern' financial instruments, but have to pay the price when things go bust, as they did with the 'sub-prime crisis', and which now threatens again with the 'sovereign debt crisis'. It is too easy to blame yourself for allowing unscrupulous others to induce you to commit faults: a decent society should not tolerate predatory behaviour. Likewise, trying to set-up German taxpayers against Greeks, in the event a bail-out is necessary, causes only exaggerated nationalism, and does not advance the primary reason for which the EU was created, i.e. peace and the reconciliation of people so as to avoid the repetition of the disastrous world wars I and II.
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MaudDib and Mavrelius, look here
A men's "shuba"/fur-coat. Beaver, full lining, what's called "covered/roofed" fur-coat, which means not for light-minded individuals who only want to show off :o), but "built" with serious intentions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feodor_Chaliapin
(it is said that his French doggie was kept posing for 5 hours by positioning a cat on top of the wardrobe in the artists' room . :o)))
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I don't understand it. Russia doesn't sleep nights, everything starts at 3 am in the morn - and we are "4th", "7th", "10th", "15th", "17th", "4th" again - what for do we watch these Olympics?!! :o)))))
Lucky people who are "70th" "60th" or "20th" - they sleep well don't even worry!
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smroet @ #132
I think you are clutching at straws trying to read into the NYT article that the main thrust of the article was to blame Bankers - it was the Greeks who went to the global finacial markets to obtain loans to subsidise their public expenditure, armed forces and welfare system. It was also the Greeks who then concealed the size of the National Debt from both the ECB and the EU because Eurozone rules prohibit excessive debt vs. GDP imbalance. Goldman Sachs merely happened to be THE bank that provided the biggest loan that has caused the Greeks the most pain but it was the Greek governments that acted fraudulently and used creative accounting practices to conceal their debts.
Goldman Sach did nothing wrong nor illegal unless the thrust of your argument is that governments should not borrow money on the open financial markets? That would be another entirely different discussion for the merits or demerits of what is common governmental activity and has been common practice for centuries!
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Well, WA,
To answer your question of whom to back...
Look whom we backed--whom we had conquered..during WW2..in other words we all project the present into the future especially after trauma..
But,
Communism's goal--among others--was to replace capitalist govts with communist govts..BUT, they did NOT have freedom of press, if they had had those ideas..hmmmmmm.
BUT,
And China is a result of the "end of the cold war" as Russia VS America was the result of the WW2 ending. But, Russia is now the Victim of the end---you had better change your ways..your basic ways of aloneness.
Either court America or apply to the EU. Only one of these associations is better and I suspect militarily and econically America is your better bet ..against (who me??) China.
The EU will treat you like Turkey... a Slav invader from the East. (with our stupid help) Only by applying to the NAFTA can you make it in future.
We need each other...Only together can this new economic challenge be met..the EU is a protectorate for years to come, sadly, I think..so internally involved are they--neutrality suits them, ultimately maybe.
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I mean,
if only one small country can emasculate them, uhh ohhhhhh.
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no offense to motherland Europe ..love them.
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#133
Now that's what I call an overcoat. Where I live it doesn't get cold enough to wear that thing. As far as the hat goes, I lean more toward a fedora. Actually I was more impressed with his Mephisto get up. Does he look the part or what. Reading some of the accompanying text, I'm quite sure I would have liked this fellow.
As for the Olympics, all I can say is that watching sports causes my blood pressure to elevate. I get to rooting for my team and wind up a nervous wreck. To combat this foolish phenomenon I just check in from time to time or wait for newspaper account.
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a fedora? ah? another unknown article! ? :o))) ?
MaudDib, I saw in Spain and in some European resort places females put on their "shuba"-s /fur-coats when it gets as LOW :o)))) as plus 15C!
For they simply don't get a btter chance! :o))))
So, temperatures shouldn't avert all away of their ?shuba-dooba-doo-s! :o))
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amen to 139
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As to nervous wreck that's all ahead figure skating. Heart drops to be prepared in litres :o))) or other ghm say , remedies :o))))
Shalyapin was a nice chap, and low low baaaas. Maybe in youtube somewhere I'll find his voice.
To complete or try to :o))) with fur clothes, MauDib reindeer is no doubt good, but only for poor Northerners in tundra I think, who simply don't have any other live creatures at hand :o))) I suspect it's a kind of a forced choice, with eskimo and chukcha-s and Canada Northerners and US Northerners may be ? (Jan Keeskop one of our bloggers here definitely :o). Jukks as well.
I saw a film on folks where Gazprom gets gas or oil or whatever. Their ? tents say, are made of deer skins, clothes, table-cloth :o))) a baby was swinging in that ? a cradle made of deer skin, the baby was also rolled up in deer skin, they were cooking the deer, the family, the boots were of deer and the rest of the deers were standing outside. Overall I haven't noticed in the house anything which was not a deer at some point :o))) Except for 5 bags of baby diapers! the bags were made of deer again, of course - but the diapers themselves were strategic stocks of moss!
So I think reindeer is practical no doubt, but if one happens to have a forest nearby by any luck - you can catch someone more furry and fluffy than a deer.
I won't, as I want exactly Shalyapin "shuba" but in sable :o)))) Which is hopeless, and second best won't suit me!
Well, may be racoon trench-coat, more realistic a plan. Except they make them in idiotic styles and who will sew I don't know.
Sable is also good to be thrown under your feet :o)))) into the snow and slash slush? that wet snow and mud. To walk upon. Russian men used to do this when they wanted to show off to their sweethearts, but I'm afraid forgot the custom entirely lately. But that's what men had fur-coats for. I think.
David, difficult questions, or answers, you put. Russia is semi-Europe in terms we also don't want to do anything just live peacefully. So 1/2 is Europe's intentions shared.
The other half doesn't fit though, we absolutely can not be focused on own business entirely :o))) That's not enough, feels choking and claustrophobic. So I guess we'd like to annoy other folks. but peacefully. :o))) How to combine don't know :o)))) may be ? touring like gypsy band :o))) around :o)))
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Menedemus @ # 135
The NYT article indeed states that the Greek government was responsable for the 'creative bookkeeping' to get admitted into the Euro. However, perusal of the comments on the article shows, to me at least, that most commentators do not like the behaviour of Goldman Sachs, since it was them who provided the instrument with which this fudging could be done. Neither the 'Greeks' nor Goldman Sachs were obliged to do what they did, and each should take their own responsibility. In my view, the complex financial instruments which helped bring about the subprime crisis and now possibly a sovereign debt crisis were not around for centuries: on the contrary, I think they are quite recent. These recent banking practices lead to bail-outs by goverments (i.e. taxpayers) not so long ago, yet the banks are still continuing to pay out extraordinary high bonusses to traders (who trade other people's money), and are now speculating against the Euro just to disrupt the markets further, so that more short term profits can be made by some.
It may be satisfying to blame the 'Greeks', but their bonds are held by a number of European banks (as far as I understand). If Greece defaults, these banks become vulnerable in turn, which may lead to more grief all over the place. All this to the glory of the 'markets', who are de facto assuming political power at the expense of democratic arrangements. If you think this is OK, fine, but I don't have to like it. Anyway, Goldman Sachs's behaviour may be legal, but is not terribly constructive. Weren't they bailed out in 2008?
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Today by the way (was) a very heavy-loaded day, many things in 1 day - Moon New Year (Chinese, White Tiger year has began aaah), then Valentine's the Western way, then locally we had that? ah? eh? Shrovetide? anyway church holiday, pan-cakes day, end of winter (theoretically. formally) (tons of pan-cakes consumed as they look like sun, spring is coming) (may be it's not church, but pagan) (not sure) (and the scare-crow of winter , made of hay, burned up on all squares), plus another "holiday" day - the so-called Forgivance Sunday, when all ought to ask forgivance with each other for all things done bad to tghem during the past year. So I ask forgivance in everything I had done here :o))) , with all.
Saw even a joke in the net on that combined difficulties day :o)), as "forgivance" and "Valentine" and pan-cakes combined .
"Darling, I have found a new girl-friend so please forgive me. eat a pan-cake, may be you'll feel better" :o))))
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In the United States men used to wear beaver coats...in the 1920s :-) It fell out of favor. The standard for showing off wealth was for women to wear a mink coat. If not a mink coat then a mink jacket or less expensive a mink stole. Mink is often associated with diamonds. Chinchilla is rarer. But Russian sable is probably the most expensive. I don't know what they cost now but decades ago, say in the days when Gorky Park was written, a Russian sable coat could sell for $25,000. I lived for a while in what is called the fur district of New York City where fur coats were made. You can buy a lot of these ooats used at enormous discounts. Leopard was popular too. The main problem for the fur industry is that many of America's richest women live in Florida or Southern California where such an item of clothing is worse than useless because it is always so warm. This clothing has kind of fallen out of favor and is associated with another time although you still see women occasionally wear them. If you see newsfilm or publicity film of Hollywood starlets from the 1940s for example, they would often be seen in mink. Often the rich have these coats stored in special climate controlled buildings for the summer so that they remain in top condition.
We have a lot of crazy people in America including "animal rights" people who are on a lifelong crusade to prevent cruelty to animals. They object to people eating meat and you often hear about some nut who threw a bucket of paint at someone wearing a fur coat. (They also attack people who work in medical laboratories that use lab animals and attack the labs themselves.) This is who these PETA people are associated with.
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damned Russian TV doesn't show me ice-skating direct and St. Petersburgers will be 14 dancing now !and 16
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They fell
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OK, I just tuned in to the skating. Missed the opening moments of the two Russians. The announcer said they had made one big mistake but I didn't catch it. You could see the agony on the man's face when it was over. Oops, here's the replay, the man fell and the woman landed backwards on one jump. 63.44. The announcer said the judges were generous considering.
OK, here's the Ukranians in blue. The man fell also right at the opening on the triple toe loop. One announcer said the man is not nearly as strong a skater as the woman.
More Russians in brown next after the scores for Ukraine.
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10 islands to Japan! Hurray Kawaguti!
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The Russian woman in white was born Japanese but became a Russian citizen. Wanted to study with Tamara Moskvina. The announcer said "brilliant performance." I didn't find it all that exciting. Not enough jumps. Moskvina is so short she has to stand on a box to see over the boards to watch here students skate :-) 74.16 in second place behind the Chinese Shen and Jou.
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The Canadian woman fell on the triple jump. Too bad. The announcer says they look nervous, the ice gets heavy and becomes like glue. Not impressive. Between skaters before the Canadians, the American expert said he liked the Chinese best so far.
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Thank you MA darling. I pressed all buttons and got myself in black and white :o) a channel on TV, but also from mid-way of the first Russian pair or rather the very end as well.
St. Petersburgers our top pair hope, with the tiny Japanese girl and Alexnder, who trains Tatiana Moskvina. So far squared on both sides by the Chinese.
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The Chinese pair in blue got 71.50. I thought their performace was stunning. The score was too low. Another Chinese pair 71.28, a high score for uninspired by technically good performance.
Now the Germans. Fine performance. Very good jumps. The throw triple flip was perfect. But the announcer said it was slow and covered very little ice. 75.96, they come in second behind Shen and Zhou. China #1, Germany #2, Russia #3 so far in pair figure skating.
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Mavrelius, we are sad though not cataleptical. :o)
Russia hasn't lost in this once since 1960.
Moskvina is the best coach ever, except may be, Tarasova is best as well, training foreigners since perestroyka :o)
Moskvina - "short" ghmmm!
Chinese aren't stunning. Don't you see our dying swan that is poor Japanese girl dying from our borsch :o))) in St. Petersburg for the last 5 years was true heart feeling, Sen Sans.
Alyona Shyolkova surely good, that's our people, and USSR coach, Eastern Germany, who got the school from competing and training together with Russians. Don't you see another class and style, compared to the Chinese. In the Russian style - watch the arms - of which China has no clue.
As to Chinese, they added up connecting elements to their always excellent existing main technical elements, so it got all together, but they don't glide. And gliding is key in ice-skating :o))) believe it or not. We glide, Germans glide, Chinese don't have a clue yet. That's why they were rated smaller.
Canadians with a fall got more than the second Russian pair with the fall. Just a note.
I fan for Alexander and our Uoko Ono.
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Overall, Russians don't care in Olympics for anything but icce-skating. Because that is art and the rest is sport.
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You are funny,
WA, MA and MauDib,
and WA put my thots into proper perspective...GO RUSSIA IN ICE SKATING!!!
And the Canadians finally won a gold on home soil..but I like that Ohno guy --who gave others and I, the fashion motif of the "soul patch." Poor S. Korea...GO GO GO whomever lolol
Cheers
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My experience with ice skating is limited to running across a bank and jumping on a frozen pond with street shoes. Never did figure out how to attach a knife blade to those shoes. Once broke through ice and nearly froze to death trying to get out of hole. Did manage to engineer a pair of skis by taking rudders off water skies and strapping to pair of boots to be pulled behind a truck. Sure upset the neighbors dogs when being pulled down the highway.
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WA;
"that's our people, and USSR coach, Eastern Germany, who got the school from competing and training together with Russians."
You are of course aware that in the bad old days of the USSR many of those Russian and other Eastern Europan women atheletes were suspected of being surgically altered men. Not in figure skating though, at least we don't think so. Today it's all about performance enhancing drugs and how to escape detection. Sports is big business, in reality they are all professionals, there are no amateurs. A lot of money is involved.
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You are as cynical, Marcus, as I am deluded..generally.
THO maybe Im more deluded LOLOLOL.
Cheers HVD (VALENTINE) AND RUSSIA PANCAKE DAY!!!!
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David, the Russians eat those "blinis" I think with caviar, sour cream, all kinds of stuff. Are "blini" the same as Yiddish "blintzes?" I think they eat those with cream cheese, jam, other stuff too. They are kind of like crepes more than like pancakes I think. Different batter. I was never fan of pancakes or waffles. But there were these Belgian waffles at the 1964 World's fair in NYC. Dark, crispy, crunchy, square with powdered sugar, a huge mound of whipped cream and fresh strawberries. I still remember them all these years later. The year of the tiger, my kind of year.
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menedemus:
"Goldman Sach did nothing wrong nor illegal unless the thrust of your argument is that governments should not borrow money on the open financial markets? That would be another entirely different discussion for the merits or demerits of what is common governmental activity and has been common practice for centuries!"
You risk confusing people by a very select and narrow use of the word "wrong".
You mean that Goldman Sach did nothing for which they could be convicted of a moral wrong in an ecclesiastical church.
You cannot possibly mean that they made the right decision, as events transpired. Therefore you further cannot possibly mean that Goldman Sach made the right decision in purely business terms. In practical terms, they were dead wrong.
In the market, if you make wrong decisions in practical terms then you pay.
But here we see a curious thing. Goldman Sach are benefiting from "right" decisions without reference to moral grounds. When they make decisions that pay profits from the markets, the profits are theirs regardless of the moral aspect of their behaviour in the view of the general public.
But when Goldman Sach make wrong decisions that cost them in the market, the general public is asked to pay for their losses on the basis that they committed no moral wrong.
This is a most insipid and dishonest situation. It is privatization of profits and socialization of losses, in legal, moral and practical terms.
This is why I note that large banks no longer exist to make profits for themselves. They "provide liquidity to the market", and this is now seen by politicians as a social service and an unqualified moral benefit, for which these saintly organizations ought to be rewarded if things go badly for them.
For a thinking person, all this shows is that the political process of the two party westminster system of "democracy" has become 100% controlled by corporate interests, and in particular by the shareholders of large financial institutions.
The banks control of power is complete, across all three branches of government. They utterly control the legislature by sponsoring the parties equally, and grooming the party leaders from University. They have appointed their pets to the high courts, and they have used their overwhelming influence to appoint their own executives to every position of civil service regulation in their industry.
They are, in short, a law unto themselves.
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1) Greeks obviously do not care about winter Olympics since that is a non-universal event since 80% of the world's population has not any chance on having ever trained to any of these sports that are not only location-specific but extra-expensive so they should not even be called Olympics but winter-sports world tournois or something.
2) Blinis is not a Greek word and the food type is not Greek either just like humous (no matter if Greeks have had always other variations long before the advent of these, and that humous sounds too much like the greek word "humos" which nontheless means juice).
3) Our PM Giorgos Papandreou is like blinis... i.e. not Greek. His whatever Greek ancestry (a maximu of 1/8 as the family up to at least 3 generations is marrying foreign women, namely US women - all heavily political marriages of course...) cannot even been held when his own party members accept that he openly declares that he does not care for the country. Why Greeks have voted for him, it is obvious: they had nothing else than leaving a 3rd time the ND party to rule (which faced a lot of opposition), then Greeks have voted for local representatives not Giorgakis himself - his own party members do not accept him as capable of doing anything and themselves even sometimes call him "gkiorgkaki" (i.e. as a foreigner would pronounce the greek version of "little george").
I have already told you (but nobody apart WebAliceInWonderland got it) that Giorgakis holds a US passport and he is hugely pro-US.
And the todays' news come as a veridication:
2) US banks enter inside and start proposing things: i.e. new lending...
3) Giorgakis accuses Europeans on being slow to respond to the problem of Greece...
Guess why I have started by no2... where is no1?
But I have told you:
1) 3 months back Giorgakis have created the 12,5 deficit issue by deciding to pay off the interests of next year... something that I do not know many countrys that have made it. The economy be it bad, has a real deficit of 9,5% still bad, still there are a lot of things to do about it, but not deservening any delegation.
I wonder, is any intelligent man out there that is getting the pattern?
Do I have to mention that Giorgakis has only one plan from here on : to get more indebted to US firms and of course to render Greece even more powerless to the US games in the region. I'll wait to see how he'll handle the huge gaz and ports projects with Russia and China but given what he has presented so far, I am less pessimistic.
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Nik, I understand your disappointment with both Olympics that lost the amateur status entirely and presidents having foreign citizenship.
Indeed, would be interesting to know :o))) how many countries of 228 there are in the world have presidents or PM or whatever, heads of state with second US passport. Mavrelius - your new strategy? :o))) on top of 150 military bases you decided to get less militaristic and simply hand out passports ? Russia slaves away handing out passports to citizens of foreign countries, while you decided to go for a short-cut and simply give it to the head of the state? ! Again, patenting rights "On the improvement to the light bulb invention" etc ? :o))))) aj jaj jaj!
Nik, I don't know anything about far away, so here we recently had 3 - Georgia, Ukraine and Greece with presidents - US passport holders. Now minus 1. (Ukraine). Stayed 2. Saakashvili won't last long either, though in his present condition he is no harm to anybody so excellently compromised :o))))) on all fronts - externally and internally - so if it will be left only you it can be managed somehow I am sure.
However if the reality is not Georgia-Greece alone, but say 30-40 worldwide, it'll be better if we agree with the US somehow instead of plucking these out one after another with much trouble.
But then if those 30-40 are far, not our continent, are not neighbours or related in any way I think I won't care. Because any way what do we understand of life in another continent, hopeless.
We also get nervous even when our elites put their families in London and money in US banks, because any trouble to the country - they don't have stakes in here and will run away, so can't be trusted. Like no one can be trusted who doesn't have as much to lose in an enterprise as you do.
Even a joke here "Why Russia so persistently demands Berezovsky to be surrendered by Britain?
- Answer: Checking how fool-proof the British legal system is, the reliability of it. Because a day might come whn they'll have to hide there themselves!
:o))))
With the Olympics , yes, even our Pozner (Mavrelius' s old friend) commented in the openeing ceremony (he was presenting us the Vancouverr opening ceremony in TV) how far away the Olympics have changed from the original ones the Greek idea. When your delegation was there traditionally first, as a token to the founders of the Olympic ganmes.
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WA;
I didn't know America was giving passports to selected heads of state. Must be only the ones friendly to us. Purpose? On a state visit they are unnecessary, arrangements are made in advance. Perhaps on the possibility that they might have to get out of their country fast and find a safe place of refuge. A US passport will give them easy safe passage to America by many routes.
We have basically two kinds of banks. One type is called an investment bank. These are gambling casinos. They handle the money of mostly wealthy investors who want to buy all kinds of speculative and investment securities. Those accounts are not insured. You win, you lose, you play entirely at your own risk. The other type consists of Commercial and Savings banks. These banks offer modest or little return (a few percent) to their depositors but the money is guaranteed by an agency of the United States government, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) now up to $250,000 deposit in each bank. They are only supposed to be allowed to make very conservative investments such as in well researched home mortgages. This was created after the great depression to restore and assure bank deposits. No one has ever lost one cent in an FDIC insured account.
The problem started in part when suddenly around the 1990s a law which kept the two kinds of banks separated, a law called the Glass Steagall Act was repealed. This opened the door to banks gambling with all depositors money and the US taxpayer guaranteeing that if the banks lost big on their investments, the US taxpayer would cover the losses. The result has been a disaster. But there is far more to the story of the current crisis than that. This was just part of it, I'm not going into the rest of it here. Neither Russians nor anyone else should have any fears about putting up to $250,000 in any one American bank where the account is insured by the FDIC. (If you have more, just open an account in more banks.) The entire American economy depends on trust in that insurance.
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@82 CBW
I finally received the msg for my moderation. I'll reprint the post without Mr Hewitt's weblink (what a joke !!).
Hope this will help you understand my comments better, whatever your positions on the topic.
@76 Mauddib
Yep, when it comes to informed opinion or investigative journalism on economical matters, Mr Hewitt entries don't stand the comparison well with Mrs Flanders.
And yet, everything about that Greek crisis is so classical : a textbook scenario of politicians from a badly-run state, trying to cover their failings for as long as possible, all the while charging others for their own mistakes.
Dang.
Even that guy, pretty much summarized it all up :
Post 65 in Mr Hewitt's "europes_economic_chill"
What truly amazes me in this blog (and in a sad way), is to see so many supposedly educated commentators, so willingly jumping into the band-wagon of wild-crazed hysterias, fantaisist allegations and/or nevrotic statements.
I mean, it's really simple to just get outside, breathe a bit of fresh (cold ?) air, and take the time for thinking relax.
I do understand the glees of schadenfreunde from many english/US posters here, but stil ...
Based on their writings, it would seem to be a cataclysmic re-run of 1993, where European national currencies where attacked one by one.
And most of all devalued, because it was the EASY solution.
In comparison, the PIIGS have it soooo much easier. And hopefully, they will at long last make the structural changes they delayed for so long.
Now, states and politicians in the Eurozone are learning the hard way, that they can't mismanaged their national state's economies without being held directly accountable for it.
It was easy to borrow for the past decade in mortgaging the credibility of the less profligate states (ie; Germany), and now they got to answer for failing to use those "good times" to reform their economies.
Even compared to the 70' (the closest, most comparable "crisis"), we, members of the Eurozone, still have got it easy.
Definitely better in, than out.
Geez.
Another guy who tried to make it simple :
Post 70 in Mr Hewitt's entry "euros_greek_squeeze"
Best regards,
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We wull all figure out that still "the world goes round."
Tomorrow "is aNOTHer day." (US Georgian southern accent)
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Tomorrow is another day - so Why are you my ? candle? match? chop-stick :o))) Santa Lucia! ("luchinushka") so un-brightly burn?
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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Dear moderators,
How can this youtube link be un-suitable, please?
The song is recorded in 1910.
The music is "folk music".
The text is "folk text".
The singer died before 2ndWW, Feyodor Shalyapin.
Which authorship rights, please, can come in the way?
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Fedor Shalyapin (13 February 1873 - 12 April 1938).
Oh, his birthday was the day before yesterday!
The song to which I gave a link - correction - recorded in 1908.
1908.
1908.
2010 - 1908, dear moderators.
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?
OK. As once said Vladimir Ilyich Lenin "We shall walk by other path".
MaudDib, MA and David, my night-time company for who it was initially intended, I 'm afarid you will have to copy into the youtube search line
two words "Shaliapin Luchinushka". 2:37, placed by some Finnish admirer "orvokki7", anyway that's the first one that pops up.
"Luchinushka" is a caressing suffix name for "luchina", relative to Santa Lucia definietly, something shiny that gives light. It's a long chop-stick or a long match, simply a chip of birch-tree wood, that you place into a metal clip, standing on a leg in your room, adjust the angle, and read or knit or look in the internet :o))) by this light. Because candles were too expensive for Russians for the previous 1000 years and I'd say :o))) are still too expensive for us.
A philosophical song why oh why you burn so un-brightly? so un-clear? what has happened with my life, that I am singing the whole day.
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Russians seem to be getting nervous about these un-lucky for us so far Olympics ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EksaafuZhl0&feature=fvhr
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I am energetic but only to a degree..but repeat in next blog and I will copy paste ur search ingrediants to works w processor--oops couples are on nowww:)
and it may be competitive to bbc, WA. lol
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copied, pasted info for utube to desktop:)
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So lets follow the outcome if Greece defaults and the EU does not ride to the rescue. The markets start looking at the other PIGS economy- so say Spain/Portugal and Italy go. Outcome? most of these countries will remain even in a greater recession than now. Exports to these countries will dive (mostly from the other big Euro countries so hurting their exports) Where is the UKs no1 export location? Europe (and mostly the current €zone). Square Mile is the financial market for Europe instead of Frankfurt. A Euro recession will drive down all Euro markets. The Banks will then find that the easy money they sucked from the BOE/ECB to play the casino will now be gone. Result even more UK job losses. Remember the last country we forced repertions on to pay back impossible loans/losses resulted in a people who looked for an autocratic leader who then blamed others. Germany remembers that, EU Skeptics ignore it as history never repeats itself eh?
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Henry Paulson, ex Secretary of the US Treasury, was head of Goldman Sachs in 2005-06 when the scam with Greece might have been created by Goldman Sachs. This scam is partly to blaim for all the problems Greece is facing today and the Euro.
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Out side of the Europeanzone it looks like the Euro was put down. But I think it will survive. One of your former Ministers of Finance has suggested that it is all about flexible currency or not. Here what I have to say:
Flexible currency rates effect the smaller economies, runs between none equally balanced economies. Like Middle East and Far East, where the strongest takes the round. That is why joining the EU is highly beneficial in the long run, to avoid being stepped over by the "big guns". England goes by the US$.
Joining the EU also works for the middle – working class in any country. For classes who pay interests to the local banks joining the EU is a good thing because they usually bare the costs of currency manipulations of the importers – exporters. Most of the countries joining the EU are far more social than England. Flexibility in the currency rate always works for the capital owners in any country.
Greece should check out where the debt comes from and make the corrections in the long run. The EU allows Greece all the time in the world.
How ever, the EU is in trouble. Its leadership is lost (a touch of Alzheimer). Stating in Hague in 1969 that the purpose of the Union is a political union, is one thing, but nominating a Minister of Foreign Affair for the Union is another. Sure, any economical merger is a political merger but don’t "break the chair you are sitting on", so to speak. Europe is not USA. Too late for that.
A European Union is essential to face the strongest markets of the far east but the European leaders should not push it to far. The Union has not completed its first mission – economical merger. Economy is more than finance, and even in the financial zone, you cannot make long predictions without information about the Q element (productions and stocks). Today information is online and it’s shameful if the Union would settle for less.
Long run predictions cannot do without quality inspections. The union has made some steps towards this goal by issuing regulations and decisions. European courts are working towards it. But it is still too political, not professional enough. Side by side with the legal system there should be the implementation of the rules and regulations set by the EU commission regarding what you can or cannot do with chemicals. Cooperation of the private sector in each country is needed: accountants, lawyers, Police. The system in there all it is required is the installation of a upper level reporting to the Commission
Reporting to the EU of the production, the use of commodities in the private sector, is the "cannot do without" (steal, coal, wood, tomatoes, ext). Listing the stocks of the basic commodities (o.b.) in the Union books is elementary. Leave the prices out of the equation. Leave the bankers out of the equation. Get more practical, give the Europeans their money worth. Read the decision of the European courts – the parties cannot find their way out of the mess.
Environmental issues are not just a skinny kid standing with a sign "Green Peace". And it is not about atomic weapons either. It's about the life and death toll in the very long, long run, and if there is any truth in the mathematic formulas run by the pension funds – it's in the infinity. I mean the environmental issues are 100% economical issues. So the balance of powers in the European Commission should be stroke between the environment groups – the working people - and the capital owners: farmers, real estate, oil, car industries. Don’t give the parties any phony names like "democrats and republicans".
Should Greece step out of the EU? By all means - no. What for?
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I find it all very confusing.
The '£ in your pocket'in Harold Wilson's devaluation was to make no difference (except that many who were able at the time went off to buy other currencies) Ill advised? Then ERM, no thanks we can't meet the critera. The euro,'Mickey Mouse money'
In mid 2006 I could buy a euro for 68 pence
At the beginning of 2009 the same euro cost me 94pence. If the sums are not too difficult that means I had to pay 26 pence more, yes 26 pence more to buy just one euro than in 2006. A fool indeed not to have exchanged any £ I could lay my hands on into that useless 'Mickey Mouse' money but how ashamed I would have been to see the demise of my 'good old British £'. Yes a fool, I listened to the 'experts'
Late December 2009 early January 2010 it cost me 86.5 pence.
Then came the big scare. Greece and any other nation supposedly stupid enough to be in the euro would soon be suffering, the euro loses all credibility. Quick, rush out and buy £. So now, after all the predictions by all the experts a euro costs me, after the violent devaluation and predicted loss. Well it costs me 88pence and the £ still sliding all last week. The euro woth 1.5 pence more since the headlines of the weak useless euro.
If exchanging money, as many do, most would prefer to receive 1.49 euros for a pound than 1.13 euros.On an average small family holiday budget of say £500? this is a difference of £130. Perhaps the profits of doom are looking at other currencies? They certainly need to look at the facts and not the news headlines. The truth and fact is that the £ has suffered terribly at the expense of the euro. If you don't believe that I am very willing to exchange my £ or more, if you would accept them for French francs (at pre devalution rate) or euros at mid 2006 rate.
If you can't admit to this you need to look at the truth.
Of course everyone is to blame, depending on your political, racist, egalitarian, nationalistic, European, green,communist,capitalist, labour, conservative, self interested etc.bias and what axe you like to grind and what smoke screen you like to draw across in order to divert from the facts. The market will decide. So far it continues to decide and anyone who can exchange £ for me at 1.50 euros may contact me and be sure of a big bargain to support his or her view of 'The good old British £'
I don't expect many takers!! Put your money where your opinions are.
This is the truth, not what many of you seem to imagine, cut off from reality by a press and media which at times does demand someone to question some of the experts and much of the information and if this is too stark to be revealed, draw another red herring across to divert from the truth.
Pistoia
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And so it goes on.
February 21 2010
14.00 GMT £=1.138euros or it costs me 87.8 pence to buy a euro
21.00 GMT £=1.135euros or it costs me 88.1 pence to buy a euro
Anyone yet honest enough to buy my £ at the 2006 rate, or even end of this year or beginning of this years rate? How many would you like?
I will be fair however and try to give honest advice. No one else wants them on the money market so perhaps it would be wise to ask.......'the experts?'
They are still for sale before the euro fell into this terrible crisis. Lovely 'Good old British £' Physician heal thyself.
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Ah well. I thought that when we got down to the real issue, not all the waffle and anti/pro/ pseudo posturing etc. there would be no reply.
The euro is weak, but no where near as weak as the £ is and it has outmatched the £ by a frightening degree over the last years. Remeber the French franc at 13 or 14 francs to the £?
Of course there are problems but at least continental Europe with a few exceptions is trying to do something about them. The overall benefits of belonging wholeheartedly to the E.U. anyway so far outway remaining 'a race apart','cut off by fog' even if there is a cost in maintaining an ideal. If the euro is really suffering it is certainly not at the expence of the £. Why then does Gavin Hewitt come up with such dramatic and misleading headlines and stories?
One wonders. It is certain he will not reply to the last two postings. His 'expertise ' is above such paltry comments such as my clear analysis. What staggers me is that some people who seem to have monetary interest still follow the £.
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So we finish the week with the 'weak' euro .
26 February 15.00 GMT £=1.116euros or it costs me 89.5 pence to buy a euro. A devaluation again against the £ of nearly 2 pence in a week.
Do please explain what is the purpose of your misguided comments.
Your facts are inaccurate though you may have other reasons beyond the truth of the facts for distoring them. You alone know.
I would have hoped the BBC had higher standards.
An explanation might be helpful but if commenting on monetary matters is is wise to look at figures.
Go back to the 1960's, or 2006 if you want only to talk about the euro or even the beginning of this year or beginning of this week. The answer is always the same; it is the £ which is weakening, not the euro.
Let us see an honest headline next week. '£ continues to lose value against an increasingly strong euro'.
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