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Merkel's understated triumph

Gavin Hewitt | 17:11 UK time, Sunday, 27 September 2009

Berlin: On the basis of the first exit polls, this looks like a significant victory for Angela Merkel. Her aim was to form a new centre-right coalition and she may well now be able to govern with the help of the pro-business Free Democrats. However, there is likely to be some horse-trading.

Angela Merkel made herself the centre of the campaign. She was more popular than her party and she played up her skills as a good crisis manager in a time of economic crisis. She sensed that Germans wanted consensus; a solid brand of careful politics.

Some in her own party felt she had been too vague during the campaign. She was reluctant to provide detail about how she would handle the economy in the future. She gambled that Germans liked her quiet managerial style. She spoke plainly - some said she sounded like the mother of the nation - telling voters that "we had been living beyond our means", and that that led to the crisis.

If she manages to form a new coalition with the Free Democrats she may well embrace pro-market reforms, most likely lower taxes. It will be a test of where Angela Merkel's true instincts lie.

At the last election in 2005 she spoke out in favour of radical reform, but backed away. Now she has more room to be bold if she chooses. But the message from the past four years, and this campaign, is that Angela Merkel is a pragmatic leader.

As regards the Social Democrats - Angela Merkel's coalition partner for the past four years - they scored their worst result in almost 60 years of politics.

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  • 1. At 6:13pm on 27 Sep 2009, David wrote:

    She is quite good...seemingly. (don't know much)

    I can't wait for the day that she is up there with France and G Britain, as one of the speakers (with Sarkovsky and Brown), giving out foreign policy speeches, making Germany more assertive.

    Realizing WW2 and aftermath, Germany must get over the past and be assertive (not be neutral or Finlandized by..whomever)

    I, myself, want them as allies, but that is their decision.

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  • 2. At 6:14pm on 27 Sep 2009, EUprisoner209456731 wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 3. At 6:18pm on 27 Sep 2009, EUprisoner209456731 wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 4. At 6:24pm on 27 Sep 2009, EUprisoner209456731 wrote:

    " ...she may well embrace pro-market reforms, most likely lower taxes ..."

    My unhumble suggestion is that she should lower taxes on income for those at the bottom of the heap to reduce the incentive to work illegally and employ illegal immigrants.

    She should increase property taxes and road pricing. Every legal resident should get an allowance on the property tax to reward the legal.

    She should also increase fuel taxes for motorists but also for heating homes. The latter more gently.

    She should also take Germany out of the "EU" to save all those billions, but she isn't going to do that.

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  • 5. At 6:31pm on 27 Sep 2009, David wrote:

    Suffolkboy2, you may be right.

    But the above subject is Germany, not Turkey...and I meant well when I said Turkey is key to mideast peace...so peace:)

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  • 6. At 6:49pm on 27 Sep 2009, frenchderek wrote:

    @Suffolkboy2; Have you ever been to/lived in Germany - modern Germany? You're talking claptrap.

    Germans are probably the most pro-EU citizens of any country. They still have the memory of why the EU came about; and how - Yes - it has brought about the longest period of peace in Western Europe for over a century.

    If Merkel has won, and I sincerely hope she has, then there is even more hope for the EU. She is both a strong counterweight to Sarkozy and a force for strength within the EU. She should emerge as a stronger, more credible actor on the EU stage. Watch out Sarkozy!

    Oh, and as for the UK: you will get your chance at next year's elections. We'll then see if Cameron, Haig, et al really have the guts to do what they are half-promising to do (note the half) - ie have a referendum (on something ....?).

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  • 7. At 6:59pm on 27 Sep 2009, Doctuer_Eiffel wrote:

    SPD....worst vote since 1946 and that says it all.

    The Left and the Greens vote were increased. Good news. So Merkel did'nt get it all her way and there will be pressure from those intelligent parties.

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  • 8. At 7:24pm on 27 Sep 2009, IShouldBeTheEditor wrote:

    Funny how British commentators think it's a landslide or a "triumph". It isn't. 48.2% for the right-wing parties, 45.8% for the left. Germans remain divided.

    Having said that, this is clearly a poor showing for the left parties, as they won the last election easily. But it follows the trend in France where the left were also trounced during the economic crisis.

    Will the SPD recover from this? Since Die Linke and Die Gruenen did so well, I wonder. Looks like they've lost their way.

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  • 9. At 7:57pm on 27 Sep 2009, phoenix wrote:

    "A day will come when you all, nations of this continent, without losing your distinct qualities and your glorious individuality, will bind yourselves tightly in a new, higher unity - the brotherhood of Europe"

    Victor Hugo 1849

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  • 10. At 8:17pm on 27 Sep 2009, mikewarsaw wrote:

    A deserved victory for a fine, pragmatic, sensible political leader. A real statesman, or rather stateswoman! Is Mr Hewitt beginning to understand the difference between real leadership as exemplified by Angela Merkel and the political bullshit all too evident and common eg in the USA, or for that matter in the UK?

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  • 11. At 00:19am on 28 Sep 2009, fringedhedgehog wrote:

    'Now she has more room to be bold if she chooses. But the message from the past four years, and this campaign, is that Angela Merkel is a pragmatic leader.'

    Will Angela Merkel act as an eagle in a dovecote? Though, I agree that it seems more likely that she may rather adhere to principles laid out at Hambach. Can Germany achieve a robust rather than fragile stability?

    Ironically double figures for the Green Party and the Left paved the way for Merkel's victory as former supporters of the Social Democrats voted with their feet (1.8 million non-voters, 1.2 million to the Left, 0.9 million to the Green Party, 0.5 million to the Liberal Democrats and 0.9 million to the Christian Democrats). FW Steinmeier appeared stoic in defeat. Lafontaine who'd risked a gamble won't be too happy.

    A few concerns remain. Civil liberties taken for granted in the UK yet can't be exercised in Germany or other European states to a comparable degree. Mere pragmatists, politicians and stakeholders can't and won't ensure individual welfare.

    In my opinion today's electoral results reflect fears and hopes of a younger generation of German individuals who wish to preserve and extend such civil liberties. If Angela Merkel attains to these hopes she will have listened well.

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  • 12. At 08:28am on 28 Sep 2009, Seraphim85 wrote:

    Suffolkboy:

    Right now negotiations with Turkey are not really progressing though I think most credit for that belongs to Mr. Sarkozy.

    The first thing she should do by the way is to charge energy companies running nuclear plants for their wastes right now it is only cheap as those companies don't have to pay a single Euro for taking care of that but the state has to and if Germans had wanted to get out of the EU they would have voted NPD (far right wing party that got even less votes than the new pirate party in this election).

    Though we are the country paying the most money into the EU funds, if you'd asked Germans today how they would save money then moving out of the EU would hardly even be among the top 3 choices, while stoppig that Magna deal, moving out of Afghanistan and stopping to support banks certaily would be. Except for the banks non of those three costs half as much as the EU.

    Are the CDU and FDP really considered right wing? Living in Germany I would describe the CDU as centre party that moved a lot to the left in the past four years while the FDP are liberals - but well being "right winged" is just no option here in Germany if you want to get any votes I guess.

    I think being a woman she will move her position and style of leading a bit towards her new partner party. She proved to be far more capable to find agreements even on the international stage than former chancellors did.

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  • 13. At 11:19am on 28 Sep 2009, JM wrote:

    Merkel only won because of the over 60s voting for her in droves!(40%)

    Among the low paid and unemployed she is seemingly unpopular and are running scared of the coming social cuts and tax cuts for the rich!

    She must be careful because otherwise there will be social unrest!

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  • 14. At 11:21am on 28 Sep 2009, JM wrote:

    I forgot the CDU(Merkels Party) have eroded civil liberties more than any other party Thanks to the interior minister(Herr Schaüble) and frau Van der Layern(Internet blocking) than any other party-Only good thing is that the FDP will do more for civil liberties!

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