Frayed Nerves and Rumours
- 2 Nov 08, 02:25 AM GMT
Highland, Indiana and Columbus, Ohio: It is that time in an election campaign when truth is most elusive. Much is read into small events and rumours travel fast. And spin is everywhere. Even the pumpkins have been carved into political slogans. All the insiders are nervous. The confident briefers are on edge.
Last night we were waiting in Highland, Indiana, for Obama. It was Halloween night
And I expected the crowd to be slim but it wasn't. We were on what is called the "riser", an elevated platform for camera positions. Places on the riser are hotly contested.
The Obama motorcade was late. Unlike most occasions Barack Obama had with him a small pool of reporters and cameramen.
Shortly after the senator arrived, but before he appeared on stage, one of the pool cameramen set up beside me. He could not quite believe what he had seen. After months of following Obama he had seen a flash of temper. The senator, wearing dark glasses for Halloween, had been walking one of his daughters down the street in Chicago when he was ambushed by a camera crew who were not part of the pool. Obama thought an agreement to take pictures from a distance had been broken and he was angry and let fly.
A moment and nothing more. But in the hours of frayed nerves everyone was discussing it. Within minutes it was running on the internet. Some said it revealed one of the truths of the campaign that Obama does not like the unexpected. He is very controlled himself and runs his campaign tightly. Others thought he was living now on the dangerous edge, weary, drained of energy and wanting it to be over.
So it was debated and discussed. The consensus was that most voters would sympathise with a candidate wanting a little time with his daughter. My hunch was that most people would side with the senator and not with the media.
At moments like that you think of the cost of seeking high office. The most natural things are denied to you. Not just now but maybe always if you are successful. The lenses are always present, probing and unforgiving.
Then this morning there was the issue of an Obama relative who was found to be living illegally in Boston. Was this a November surprise? Would this embarrass the candidate? Everyone waited, watching to see if a story catches fire. Very quickly Obama's Chicago office said that the candidate didn't know his relative was there and that the law must take its course. But then I heard someone suggesting that it might underline the idea of "the other" that Obama was an outsider.
It is that time in an election when volunteers are working hard, calls are being made and all commentators can do is speculate.
And into the vacuum march the spinmeisters. The McCain team is saying that the greatest fight back in political history is under way. The Obama camp are so confident they think they might even clinch Arizona - McCain's home state. McCain's people believe 10% of voters are undecided and that most of them are breaking for their candidate. The Obama advisers say the number of undecided voters is much less - perhaps 2% and that they are dividing fairly equally in their loyalties. Both cannot be right but both are wanting to claim the big Mo - momentum.
Then, at this hour of high anxiety, people turn on the pollsters. Remember their
record, McCain supporters tell me. They were wrong about John Kerry (not all were) and what about the New Hampshire primary? Those of us who were in the UK at the time went to bed with assurances ringing in our ears of a Kerry victory only to wake to an entirely different story.
So at this late hour McCain supporters are saying "don't believe the polls". They're flakes. And less educated white voters don't apparently respond well to pollsters. I even read, while on a plane to Ohio today, that some evangelical radio stations are asking God to help voters ignore the polls.
Then there are the young voters who flocked to Obama's camp. The word is that they're sitting on their hands or transfixed by Jon Stewart's Daily Show, where most of them, so it is said, get their news. The word is that it's the under-35s who have been the most reluctant to vote early.
So what does it all mean? That this is the time of anxiety where events and statements should be treated with most caution.
What I can attest to, however, is enthusiasm. The kind of enthusiasm that keeps you standing in a queue at a polling station in Franklin county in Ohio today for five hours. The enthusiasm that persuades you to bring your children with you on a beautiful autumn day to the polling station, knowing they will be bored. The enthusiasm that means that Franklin County thought there would be 12,000 early voters and 41,000 have shown up so far. That tells you something - that the greatest political show on the planet has engaged millions of Americans.
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites
I’m Gavin Hewitt, following Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. My colleague, Matthew Price, is doing the same for John McCain.
Latest Photos
Clicking on any of these photos will take you to an external site.
Archive
« November 2008
| Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
Being Discussed Now
Latest from BBC News blogs
|
Nick Robinson: |
|
|
Douglas Fraser: |
|
|
Brian Taylor: |
|
|
|
Richard Black: |
|
|
Jonathan Amos: |
|
- News Editors
- Sport Editors
- Journalism Labs
- BBC Internet Blog
- Radio 4 Blog
- Peston's Picks
- Nick Robinson's Newslog
- Stephanomics
- Mark Easton's UK
- Mark Mardell's America
- Nick Bryant's Australia
- Andrew Harding on Africa
- Gavin Hewitt's Europe
- Soutik Biswas' India
- dot.Rory
- Science: Jonathan Amos
- Richard Black on environment
- Today: Tom Feilden
- Fergus Walsh's medical files
- Newsnight: Paul Mason
- Newsnight: Mark Urban
- Torin Douglas
- Will Gompertz's arts
- Phil Coomes on photojournalism
- Magazine Monitor
- Mark D'Arcy in Westminster
- NI: Mark Devenport
- Scotland: Brian Taylor
- Scotland: Douglas Fraser
- Wales: Betsan Powys
- Martin Rosenbaum on FOI
- 5 Live Breakfast
- Newsnight
- PM programme (iPM)
- World Tonight: Robin Lustig
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~17~RS~)
Comments
John McCain completely torpedoed his "great fightback" with his appearance on SNL - taking part in a long skit about his "shoddy goods".
His party must be utterly dismayed - the man couldn't even wait until after November 4 to mock all the people who had given him money and time - expecting that their contribution would be used wisely and well.
Complain about this comment
The polls might be wrong but I am inclined to think that the Iowa Electronic Markets are right. Obama has a clear lead.
Take a look
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres08.html
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES08_WTA.cfm
Complain about this comment
As a Briton, I am astonished and worried, not by the antics of the opposing campaigns, but by the apocalyptic tone of many of those posting on this forum. You would think they were Russians writing in 1917 with a foreknowledge of the revolution. Sometimes there is almost a touch of glee in their confident descriptions of the doom to come.
I am worried because, as we all know only too well, the USA has immense power and influence over events worldwide, and I'd like to feel that Americans are not collectively crazy. Perhaps the silver lining in the current cloud of recession is the fact that America will, at least for a while, simply not be able to afford quite so much activity aimed at moulding the world. In a smaller way, even the UK's wings will be clipped. Mr Cameron (if it is to be he) won't be able to afford to follow the USA in any military adventures.
Complain about this comment
Not every little thing matters.
Most people have already made up their minds. Many have already voted.
The few left - who arent quite sure (how, at this stage, god only knows) - won't alter the course of things very much. They'll likely split 60/40 one way or the other.
Barring cheating, this election is done.
Obama has won.
Complain about this comment
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
The election isn't really over. But I think that Obama will win, not on merit, but because the media will give it to him. The media will declare Obama the winner at 7 pm on Tuesday, before most of the nation actually votes (there aren't THAT many early voters, you guys exaggerated). The media in the US and in the UK (especially the BBC) is so blatantly pro-Obama that democracy is being circumvented.
Complain about this comment
Everyone has a temper, its how we hadle our tempers that mark us out as controlled or out of controll individuals.
The story on Obama's aunt is a sorry pathetic attempt to smear him. It fits in with dirty Republican campaign tactics.
If the courts asked her to leave the US and she didn't, what did the concerned government department do about it?
The media should leave this old lady alone...
Complain about this comment
As an American I'd like to say to rwbennett:
Seriously. Get some help.
Complain about this comment
@No 5
I can not believe the vile that you are spewing, you need a reality and mental sanity check. Black people in America will not resort to violence if Obama loses, and Obama and his team are not looking for money and paybacks.
You live in a very sheltered and narrow world.
Complain about this comment
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
About the press suddenlly barging in on him and his daughter it's understandable that he might be angry. Not everyone will want to be under the media 24/7 for months or even years. As president (If he wins) Obama will still get time to himself, for the sake of his family and his sanity, he's still human.
As for the dodgy stuff that has been reported on both camps, we gotta remember that they are politicians and not saints. I hope that Obama will do better things than Bush did, McCain seems to be running a similar line to Bush which makes me lack confidence in him.
As for posters saying that your democracy is being circumvented, if it is, change it to something else. It was manipulated in the Florida recount to get the less popular choice of President into office, and one who was hated for a LONG time, and still is here in the UK (Seriously, I can only count the number of Dubya fans with one hand over the last 8 years). From what I know about the US electoral system is that it is seriously flawed, and your media is intentionally fearful, "Terrorist fist jab" anyone?
Obviously, I have no doubt that there are voters on both sides that have chosen their leaders carefully after much deliberation, but there are many more who choose their leaders out of fear of the competition winning. That's gotta change. A lot of things have to change in the USA over the next few years, especially in the light of the economic crisis and situations worldwide.
Complain about this comment
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
As a US citizen living in Pennsylvania USA, can't wait for this election to be over.
Appreciate the level, calm reporting and comments (usually) from the BBC and our British friends; it is extremely heated here, really not much perspective.
Formerly an admirer of McCain, I do believe I am not alone in abandoning him for three reasons: 1) change of almost all major positions post 2000, 2) picking a clearly unqualified, far-right wacko as his running mate and 3) running the lowest, dirtiest campaign I've witnessed in my 30+ years as a registered independent.
While there are some whites who still will not vote for a black man, I'm hopeful they are a dwindling few. That is why a large turnout is so very important for an Obama victory.
My country, and the world, needs change.
Respectfully submitted to my fellow human beings.
Complain about this comment
There is a big difference between Obama and McCain. We simply cannot afford more of the same in the USA. McCain represents more of the same. Obama represents a change back to the course we ought to and need to be on - a progressive course that deals with reality/truth. The McCain/Palin course is one of greed/spin (not to mention fear, incompetence and biotry). Thankfully, the majority of Americans will elect Obama in a landslide.
Complain about this comment
Talk of democracy being circumvented is nonsense. Democracy was treated as an irritating obstacle in 2000 and was duly overcome. The result was eight years of irresponsible, incompetent and bullish leadership which continued in its misguided action time and time again without due recourse to unnecessary hindrances like fact, thought or public opinion. It has made our world, the world we all live in, Britons, French, Americans alike, a more dangerous and divisive place, and that is grotesquely unfair.
That is why there is such support for Obama around the world. There is no better antidote to the past near-decade of brutish 'I can't hear you' world leadership.
If the trend of retrograde continues, however; if once again a president is elected because they protect the 'rights' of clusters of cells smaller than a fly's brain, and court the support of core voters who would probably advocate stoning if it could be brought back, who think dinosaurs are an elaborate joke, who would welcome a nuclear war as a sign of the second coming, if that happens again. If that happens. I'm going to Mars.
Complain about this comment
Other states are running very close too... I live in North Carolina and around half of those that will vote have already voted (average NC tiunout has been 68%, it may get to 75% this year), 41.2% have already voted and the DEM party affiliated voters are leading in that.
NC Early Voter numbers.
I hope and trust that on Tuesday night that we see NC has voted for Obama, and elected a DEM Govenor (our current Lt Govenor is running for the top job), and that we also split our Senators by electing a DEM to the US Senate in Kay Hagan.
IF .... NC does vote for Obama, and I expect it to do this .... it will be a landslide. Obama could get 340 or more college votes.
Complain about this comment
To posts #8 #9,rwbennett, may be right sorry to say, i'm a black american, if there is any kind of voter suppession of the black vote, and obama loses it will show that white america is still racist, that no black person can ever hope to becoming president of this country period. the usa has a racial divide that will never be bridged. ask yourself something why do the blacks live together away from white people, why do they live in segergated neigborhoods? america is different, the east coast and west of the miss. river are totally different. now ask yourself why the black population won't accept biracial people. before you call me racist ask a biracial people about living in america, especially on the eastern seaboard. to #9 oh yeah we will, how far or bad it gets is anyones guess.
Complain about this comment
#15 - totally agree with you. I love how diggerjohn (#6) and his ilk talk about "the media" subverting democracy without explaining how that's actually supposed to work. Even if the news outlets do declare victory for Obama before the polls close (which they won't, that's a bizarre thing to suppose), does that mean late McCain voters will just, what, not bother? Or in your world, is the dreaded pinko un-American MSM so powerful that they can decide the result of an election just by calling it? Pathetic. Posts like this, pre-emptively blaming a McCain defeat on a liberal media or ACORN (or anything other than a lacklustre campaign or, y'know, Obama actually being very popular and convincing) are just positioning themselves for passing the buck when they really have lost.
In other news, the BBC's warped idea of balance strikes again:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7704740.stm
Some rodeo attendees in one of the most solidly red states in America don't like Obama, and this is supposed to be good news for McCain? Nowhere in this piece does it mention that, no matter how large a majority vote for McCain, Wyoming contributes a grand total of THREE electoral votes out of FIVE HUNDRED AND THIRTY-EIGHT (compare with California (55) and New York (31), both safe for Obama). This is why, looking at the electoral map of the 2004 election, it's easy to conclude that Republicans completely dominate the country - they control lots of big, empty states like WY.
Are hardcore McCainites really so hard to find that the BBC has to run this kind of is-the-Pope-a-Catholic barrel-scraping as a front-page feature?
Complain about this comment
"They were wrong about John Kerry"
But were they?
Exit polls, rather than opinion polls, have a habit of calling the correct result to a high degree of accuracy - recall the 1992 UK general election when virtually all of the opinion polls (taken before the election) showed a Labour (Kinnock led) victory but the exit polls (taken after the election) showed a narrow Conservative (Major led) victory - we all know how that turned out?
On the evening of the 2004 Kerry vs Bush USA Presidential election the exit polls showed a narrow but distinct (beyond statistical variance) Kerry victory (51% to 48%).
Mysteriously the servers containing that information crashed during that evening and didn't come back up until the early hours of the next day, when they showed a complete switch of exit poll results; mere coincidence or something more sinister?
You be the judge?
http://www.stealingamericathemovie.org/
Complain about this comment
I gathered that Obama was alleged to have said when ambushed by a camera crew after he'd asked for some privacy and for the press to stay on the bus: “All right guys, that’s enough. You got a shot. Leave us alone.”
That doesn't sound either angry or letting fly, just irritated. But I think you are right - his response will earn him sympathy from voters, and quite right too.
Complain about this comment
I think the general public, or at least that section of which is reasonably impartial, tends to sympathise with politicians when they stand up for themselves. When John Prescott hit (not very hard) a man who manhandled him, although there was some pompous tut-tutting, I think most people thought "Good for you".
Apologies to Americans, who probably don't know what that anecdote was all about!
Complain about this comment
19 padav01: thanks for the link, enjoyed the prog, slightly confused in parts but overall raised a lot of serious concerns. Also had the obligatory (and lovable) optimism which so defines America: ok there's a problem. Lets fix it!
peace : )
Complain about this comment
Ref #3. Belmons
You should be worried by events in the U.S. It's is no exaggeration to say that democracy itself is under threat. From across the Canadian border I've watched this election circus for months and most disturbing of all has been deliberate media effort to conceal from the public the lies, deceptions, shady associations, shabby instincts, and insignificant records in both the Illinois and U.S. Senates, of Barack Obama. Yet this man would be President - much like Rudyard Kiplings 'man who would be king'!
Challenge Obama (as did Joe the plumber) or publicly not support him, and the pitiful media both belittles or villifies those bold or misguided enough. CNN ran a sub-title disparaging Joe the plumber as a "flake" - all because he had the audacity to question Obama. Never was a U.S. election so manipulated and the public so poorly served by a media averse to the truth and determined to decide the outcome.
And never has the general public and supposedly intelligent individuals, Colin Powell not least, behaved so mindlessly during an election.
It's as if a large percentage of the U.S. population has lost its powers of perception and taken leave of its senses.
Complain about this comment
About Obama's temper: I saw the video, and I think a mountain is being made of a molehill. He let the photographers take pictures of him with his kid in her Hallowe'en costume, then when they kept trailing him, he put up his hand and said, "Okay, that's enough, guys."
Professional. Also brisk, but he was being a Dad protecting his little girl.
I applaud the man for trying to shield his family, to the extent that he can, from the difficult world his job has thrust on them.
Complain about this comment
I'm glad Obama stood up to these people, it was a Polish news team that ambushed Obama, they were not part of the media that followed Obama at a distance and gave him his space.
Ok, so he's going to have to get used to things like this, but him loosing his temper is a nothing story. Maybe some who are still trying to grasp at straws are making this story into something bigger. I myself think Obama acted right.
Complain about this comment
View these comments in RSS