BBC NEWS | The Reporters

Who to believe?

Gavin Hewitt
17 Oct 08, 08:22 AM GMT

LONDONDERRY, NEW HAMPSHIRE: All day, cable news has been asking 'who won the debate?' It eats up endless hours of airtime. It's a great question because there's no definitive answer. There was no knock-out blow, but circling Spin Alley in Long Island you pick up a few clues.

Barack Obama and John McCain During the first 45 minutes the Obama team was apparently edgy. And here's why.

McCain sharpened the distinction between himself and Barack Obama on tax and he had some good lines. He asked why at this time anyone would be thinking of raising taxes. Good blow.

He picked up that Barack Obama suggested "spreading the wealth around" to Joe the plumber. Good blow. Spreading the wealth around could sound like socialism.

Then McCain said the last president to raise taxes during a recession was Herbert Hoover and that ended with a depression. Another effective jab.

Certainly the McCain camp believed it was their best night of the debates and today John McCain re-worked the best lines of the debate on the campaign trail. His aides expect the polls to tighten over the next few days. Maybe.

In the latter half of the debate, Barack Obama did better. He was strong on health and his final statement was inspiring.

But here's a thought. Relatively few people weigh the facts. Many voters make up their minds on how they feel or how a candidate looks. A pollster once said to me, don't underestimate that people want to feel comfortable with the person in the White House. Every week the president is in their living rooms so likeability matters. And that was John McCain's dilemma. He needed to attack but the longer he went on the offensive, the more he risked alienating voters.

Barack Obama practised being at ease. When under attack he nearly always smiled. It seemed rather forced at times but that was the calculation that Obama would win if he appeared the nicer man.

Field with scarecrows and pumpkins for sale (photo taken by Ian Sherwood)

PS. On our way to the rally in Londonderry, we passed this field full of pumpkins in anticipation of Halloween.

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1. At 2:46pm on 17 Oct 2008, OldSouth wrote:
Good observations, Gavin.

BHO's talking heads were hysterical the next day, and looking at how they have assailed Joe The Plumber, one could forget that Joe's not running for President.

Barack The Leftist Lawyer is running for President.

And, at bottom, that's REALLY the problem.

John McCain effectively pointed that out to the world during the debate, and last night as well, at the Al Smith Annual Charity dinner in New York.

Barack Obama is the issue.

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2. At 3:42pm on 17 Oct 2008, collette0779 wrote:
As soon as the debate ended my son (a law student in DC) phoned asking if McCain was on something - like cocaine. I'm praying for Obama to win, but my heart broke for McCain who I thought came across like a pissed-off chihuahua. I am surprised that McCain didn't get up and pee on Obama's leg.

Too bad McCain didn't stand up to Bush four years ago and run as Kerry's VP choice. Back then we needed McCain. At the debate I hardly recognized the man. At the Al Smith dinner last night McCain was more himself. If he'd have been that guy (a little more humble with a touch of grace instead of coming across as the "next in line" entitled Republican) and if he'd chosen a competent running mate (Romney or if he had to have a woman, Kay or Olympia) for the nation instead of his "soul mate" to sure up the base, McCain probably would be winning.

McCain's loss is squarely on his shoulders.

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3. At 4:51pm on 17 Oct 2008, Belmons wrote:
OlsSouth -
"Leftist Lawyer"?
Over the course of this election it has become very clear that few Americans have the slightest idea what "leftist" means. Generally, it seems to be taken to be "anything a little to the left of Attila the Hun".

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4. At 5:20pm on 17 Oct 2008, electobama wrote:
Just to clarify, the photo on your posting was taken at the venue, Mack's Apples in Londonderry New Hampshire. Not some random field on route as stated.

Obama 08

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5. At 09:21am on 18 Oct 2008, eightypercent wrote:

OldSouth needs to read the comments of Obama's colleagues from his Harvard Law Review days. They all agree that he was moderate and focussed on bringing all sides together.

Which I would have thought was exactly what America needs at this moment.

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6. At 11:49am on 18 Oct 2008, Arcadianspireite wrote:
#1 Oldsouth - Barack Obama is only one of the issues. John McCain is another
It seems to me that saying you don't like one candidate is only going to benefit the US if the alternative candidate has something constructive to offer. John Mccain may have high ideals and good intentions but he has clearly lost his way (or been misdirected by those running his campaign) and has entered a downward spiral of negativity.
Wouldn't the best outcome for the US be to have two candidates trying to show their best qualities, rather than the current, rather sad state of affairs where obfuscation and artifice hold sway?

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7. At 1:50pm on 18 Oct 2008, Pancha_Chandra wrote:
Senator Obama is a man with a real mission: to take America out of the economic morass it is so deeply bogged down in. The voters want to see real change where the candidates practise what they preach. Artificial glib talk and trying to take the high superior stance that Senatorial experience is far more important than real empathy for the middle class, the poor and the destitute characterize the real difference between McCain and Obama. Obama is streets ahead when it comes to real commitment!

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8. At 3:27pm on 18 Oct 2008, ear-to-the-ground wrote:
why is there a radical fear of the concept of socialism? and why do people not seem to know the difference between socialism and social capitalism? its simple keynsean ecomomics vs. neo-con tricle down let the market determine what is right fly by the seat of your pants economics.

obama was weak on his defence against mccain's socialist claims. but tax breaks to the poor while taxing a bit more from the rich makes sense. especially in times of economic strife. it is not socialist to put precautionary measures in place to stabalise the economy. who thinks seatbelts and airbags are stupid when driving down the highway?

i read a comment the talking america blog where a guy said that you should do it yourself and sink or swim on your own. that this was the american way. but what if everyone starts to sink at the same time? i myself think it would be nice to have a lifeboat....or atleast a swimming teacher.

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9. At 3:53pm on 18 Oct 2008, bhapiorelse wrote:
One thing you have failed to mention - we have a truly historic election year! Either we have a non-white man in office (Open the door for everyone!), or McCain get's voted in and we have elderly rights and a woman as a backup! I feel as though the first million cracks have been made in that glass ceiling (to borrow from Hilary Clinton) and that we are on the right track for a celebration of diversity!

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10. At 7:58pm on 18 Oct 2008, ladyluck43701 wrote:
Senator Obama won this debate hands down. He remained calm,cool and collective and on message. He remained presidential while McCain looked crazy with his constant blinking, grimacing,wildeye stares and his frustration because he couldn't get Obama mad. As far as Joe the Plumber is concerned he doesn't matter because he is not a licensed plumber, owes back taxes and is not a registered voter.
While Obama/Biden stays on message McCain/Palin run on Obama and has no message.

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11. At 10:57pm on 19 Oct 2008, limeyinlalaland wrote:
We need a president who is likable to not only the American voter but also the people of the world and their leaders. Obama fits the bill for someone who can bring nations together and put the USA back where it and the rest of the free world needs it to be. Strong, fair and equitable. It must be Obama.
Caution: look at the polls over the past few days.

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