BBC NEWS | The Reporters

The risk of expectation

Gavin Hewitt
21 Oct 08, 02:32 AM GMT

It was the children that caught my eye. The sheer number that were turning up for the Obama rally in North Carolina. Some carried big cartons of popcorn or foil-wrapped dogs, seeping with ketchup as if arriving for a movie or a ballgame.

I had never seen so many children at a rally. At first I thought it was because it was a Sunday and baby-sitters were scarce. After a few conversations I realised something else was happening. Many in the crowd were history-seekers. Their children had been brought along so that when they were older they would be told: "You went to an Obama rally." The parents were laying something down for the future.

Probably 70% of the audience was African-American although that wasn't reflected in the selected guests that filled the stage behind the candidate. (At all these rallies there is an element of stage management. I watched posters being handed out to those in the line of sight of the cameras with slogans like 'Army4Obama.' 'Military4Obama' and 'Veterans for Obama.)

One woman said she wanted her children to see the first African-American president. She, like many in the audience, was without doubt. When Barack Obama finally emerged the crowd erupted. It was not applause but a roar like one that greets a winning team or the full-throated cry of the fan.

When Obama said there had been some good news that morning there were a few screams. That was before he mentioned the name of Colin Powell. Many in the audience wore Obama tee-shirts with words like "hope" or "change" stamped on them. When he arrived thousands of cell-phones were raised as if in salute. All raised to capture a moment. To be able to say sometime in the future "I was there" and "I was part of history". And when he spoke many stayed standing. They were riding a victory tide.

And that is when I thought - what would happen on 4 November if he lost?

Disappointment is built into democracy but would this crowd or any of the vast numbers he is pulling in accept defeat? Some still feel betrayed after the election of 2000 when the Supreme Court gave the election to George W Bush over Al Gore. How do I know the hurt lingers? Because at the rallies, when Obama urges them not to be confused or bamboozled they respond: "Not this time."

The candidate faces a dilemma. He has to enthuse, to inspire, to work up - to get out the vote. What he cannot do is worry about the let-down if he loses. In Philadelphia just off Locust street a young woman, just turned 18, hinted to me that there would be an explosion of anger if Obama lost. No-one else has said it but when you feel the passion of the crowds it leaves you wondering.

It is one of the dangers of negative campaigning that if you win the disappointed feel "cheated". It is one reason that so many question whether some Republicans should be asking "who is a real American" or raising doubts about Obama's patriotism because if failure were to follow some in the Obama camp would feel they had been "mugged".

Barack Obama warns against expectations or complacency. "For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky..." he mentions two words "New Hampshire" where he was ahead in the primary but went on to lose. But his crowds sway and dance to the Obama play-list. For all the world it looks like a celebration has begun.

Comments

1. At 03:32am on 21 Oct 2008, twokidsandadog wrote:
Yeah. I will certainly feel "mugged" if he loses.

And it will set the standard for future years that the amount of negative campaigning is all that matters to win the election.

Is that democracy or is that psychological extortion?

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2. At 07:24am on 21 Oct 2008, rl wrote:
I think everyone will feel mugged. I can't either imagine what would happen if he lost having had such a commanding lead for so long.

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3. At 09:24am on 21 Oct 2008, vleginsky wrote:
I thought you were going somewhere else with your article given the title. The biggest risk, once Obama wins, is that he can't deliver the change his audience expects. Can he? He does not have the personal connections and experience. He will say to the electorate, "You have to help me"- they won't like that. I'm afraid they expect miracles now. His first 100 days will be something to watch!

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4. At 09:42am on 21 Oct 2008, Steve Thomas wrote:
It's funny, how the "brand" of a campaign eventually becomes dominated, not by the candidates themelves, but by the supporters. In deciding whether to support a candidate, a powerful driver is whether we associate with other people who also support him. This is where Obama wins hands down. While his supporters may at times seem naive, even to the point of delusion at times, they also seem genuinely optimistic and hopeful. McCain's supporters on the other hand seem like an angry mob, blindy following through anger and hatred, willing to believe anything, true or not, if it will destroy the opponent. For undecided and swing voters, resentment and hatred will tend to be alienating, hope and optimism will be inclusive. I can't see a last-minute swing towards McCain.

I feel a bit sorry for McCain. It never really seemed that he had the stomach for a truly dirty fight, he just wanted to engage in the low-level mud-slinging that's par for the course in a political contest. All he succeeded in doing was whipping the rabid republican hardcore into a frenzy, and now that negativity of that hardcore of supporters has started to dominate the identity of his campaign. This is a real shame, since before the presidential campaign, he was a man with a reputation for ideals and integrity. To a substantial extent, that reputation has been rewritten by his supporters.

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5. At 09:45am on 21 Oct 2008, clueduprock wrote:
I would feel cheated, but I would feel more outraged for the millions of Americans would have been cheated even more.

There are a whole host of reasons Barack Obama SHOULD win this election. The thefts of 2000 and 2004. The appalling state of the America's reputation around the world. The appalling state and number of America's poor.

But one that stands out at the moment is that Republicans, Congress, and America should be shown that negative campaigning and the politics of fear cannot and should not prevail. Not now, not ever, but especially not now. If McCain wins, Republicans will use this campaign as a template for years to come, including Palin, robo-calls, fake plumbers, having zero policies, Ayers, Wright, and equating "liberal" with "anti-American".

It's so scary I don't want to think about it! Obama's going to win and the world will all be a little bit better when he does. WHEN.

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6. At 12:29pm on 21 Oct 2008, AnAmericaninLondon1 wrote:
Great column today. We Miss You At The Lad !
You were able to capture the feeling of the people at the rally. Its the same feeling I noticed when traveling through the South and visiting homes of black people and seeing the usual three pictures above every fireplace, Jesus, Martin Luther King, JFK or RFK if a bit younger. To the traditional black Southern poor and middle class; these are more than pictures but hope and pride in the future of their families.

Your correct about the disappointment of an Obama loss but he is not going to lose!!! There will be no uneasiness felt in the rallies going forward because the only emotions will now be pride, victory and a new beginning.

YES WE CAN !!!

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7. At 1:35pm on 21 Oct 2008, peterdough wrote:
3.

"The biggest risk, once Obama wins, is that he can't deliver the change his audience expects. Can he? He does not have the personal connections and experience"

The irony, and the wildcard if you like, in all this is precisely those personal connections he does NOT have that CAN deliver the change.

Throughout the Obama campaign we are seeing unfolding a new political principle that is proving to be right time and time again. Put simply it's the "change from within" doctrine, the idea that the old connections delivered chaos and so they will be cut, leaving... possibilities.

First the Democrats as a party were won over and soon I guess we'll see an overwhelming majority in the nation's general election.

The Obama electoral race is not tied into the same problematic politics of past electoral races, therefore it does not subscribe to any of the same old rules.

This is one reason why, probably, it's success will continue as opposed to tighten as we've seen in electoral races in the past.

It's also, incidently, why much of the experience argument is put in the shade.

Instead it has a broad horizon from which to draw on, across the aisle, so to speak, and can make statesmanship, like that of Colin Powell recently, possible.

In short, it makes the formation of the new, and hence more powerful connections, possible.

It is, as Powell himself put it, "transformational".

Many foundational connections are already there and have been in place for a surprisingly long time.

Compliments Gavin on a fine report.

Peter

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8. At 2:11pm on 21 Oct 2008, sudohnim38 wrote:
What it comes down to Gavin, is trust. The fact is, Americans are just ordinary people and they know that whichever party wins, there is a certain amount of spin to it. Unfortunately I do think on election day the Bradley effect may be an issue which could lose this election for Obama... but that 'bradley effect' will not be because of his skin colour, it will be a case of 'better the devil you know'. The American people know the constraints and the capabilities, flaws and highpoints of the republican party... they know what they are able to do and not do with their country. Obama's demoncrats on the other hand, are an unknown quantity. Your average USA citizen is likely to feel how we do about Gordon - 'anyone but him' and so I think it may be this which could, on election day, swing the vote McCain's way. America is in need of change certainly... the problem is, is it ready for it...?! I don't think anyone in the UK has cause to complain either, afterall we elected our own lot for a third term too. I seriously think, if the USA vote Obama in, that will have serious implications for the thinking people and how they vote not just here, but around the world. If America can lead this change, we could be entering a new era of global hope and change. If they don't then it's more of the same... and that's what worries me.

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9. At 2:26pm on 21 Oct 2008, sudohnim38 wrote:
Please forgive typographical error in previous post "demoncrats" was of course, supposed to say "democrats". If I were American I'd be voting for Obama.

:)

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10. At 3:24pm on 21 Oct 2008, timohio wrote:
re. 3. vleginsky:

Not having the connections to get anything done? Are you kidding? The Democrats look to expand their majority in Congress. In the Senate they may even end up with a super-majority that is filibuster-proof. A lot of that is because of him. He's been going back to states where he's already ahead in order to boost Democratic congressional candidates. Obama is going to have the longest coat-tails of any president in recent history. The Democrats in Congress will line-dance down Pennsylvania Avenue if he asks them to.

And I don't think you should underestimate his personal connections. He doesn't make a big deal of it because he is running as a change candidate, but along the way he has received endorsements from a lot of establishment figures in both government and the private sector.

He also has a history of community organizing that has served him well in the campaign. He knows how to motivate people and get results. And I would be willing to bet that his campaign organization will not just disappear when the election is over. It's very grass roots and it's his base for building support for policies and programs among the electorate. Think of all those people who have given small donations to his campaign. They're now invested in him and want him to succeed.

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11. At 3:25pm on 21 Oct 2008, clueduprock wrote:
#8 sudohnim38

I agree with your post, but I think your analogy is not quite right. Gordon Brown will be defending his role as Prime Minister and the Labour Party as government - he is not an outsider like Obama. If the UK electorate were to think "better the devil you know", it will keep Labour in power rather than risk the unknown quantity of David Cameron's Conservatives.

Personally, I think it's sad that at America's time of great change, the UK will either have a rusty, creaking Labour administration or a schoolboy toff Tory government desperately pretending to cool, green and anything else it's not. Neither will look good next to Obama.

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12. At 4:24pm on 21 Oct 2008, duhbuh wrote:
The BBC has, by my count, more than two dozen journalists covering the US election at the moment and not one has reported on Joe Biden's statement that the election of Obama will provoke an enemy confrontation within six months. Why? Even Dan Rather has said that if Palin had made a similar comment it would be headline news. Double standards. The Democrat campaign has given Biden the day off today - I'm not surprised.

Sorry for intruding into the Obama love-in. Normal service from the echo chamber can now resume.

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13. At 4:26pm on 21 Oct 2008, kennyslim28 wrote:
No doubt, every person who has kept a close watch on the happenstance in the polity of America will definitely feel mugged and distraught if Barack Obama doesn't make it to the White House.

The expectation, like Hewitt stated in the title, is huge and only our imagination can quantify what a lose of Obama's presidency will be for the people's psyche, not just to the democrats but to silent and passive republicans.

I pray, and sincerely hope he doesn't lose. Not just for history sake as the first black president (this is far from it) but for the catastrophe that may emanate from such a lose.

It could be worse than what is happening in Iraq if Obama loses to McCain come Nov.4 as the black population will forever feel robbed, not just in America but the world over.

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14. At 4:38pm on 21 Oct 2008, sudohnim38 wrote:
#11 clueduprock

I agree with your post. I came back and re-read what I originally posted and you cleared up what I was actually trying to say, thanks.

:)

I also agree with your assertion that at a time of great change, we are likely to be left behind. However, I still put forward the notion that if America vote with courage and hope, this will have implications globally for other nations and their voters. My main issue is though that generally, populations are resistant to change, no matter how much it is needed or how seductive it is. I do have to question whether the USA, like the UK will allow the republicans to completely decimate their country before they realise they have to vote in change. They have a real chance to do something about it now, but I'm not confident they will do so.

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15. At 4:47pm on 21 Oct 2008, 44thPOTUS wrote:
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16. At 6:22pm on 21 Oct 2008, grumblerog wrote:
You are in danger of arguing that people should vote for Obama because he is black, thats as bad as those who say you should not for the same reason.
You should vote for the best man for the job regardless of skin colour or the colour of the supporters skins.
Actually it is pretty racist to imply that Obama's supporters would cause some kind of trouble if they lost. Why would they any more than white folk who lost?

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17. At 00:06am on 22 Oct 2008, coolacbrown wrote:
yes with regards to #13, Biden did say something about attacking Pakistan and I'm concerned that he will be just as attatched to the pro-israel lobby as the republicans.

Don't get me wrong I hope they get in as the ticket is still broadly credible and do at least some good.
And Sarah Palin shouldn't get anywhere near the the white house as well.

I'm just slightly sceptical about the 'change' if/how much will happen
and am waiting til obama is president to judge the policies.

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18. At 3:23pm on 22 Oct 2008, Patrick Lockyer wrote:
As a Brit in Jax FL it was fun to be an extra in the movie 'Recount'. They built the Supreme Court in a Hangar at Cecil Field which was a military airfield once and was the object of a Jax referendum that denied the return of the military to said base. I had once been an extra in a spoof advert for diet coke with Pierce Brosnan at Nene Railway Peterborough, a steam railway used in many movies. The pay was better in England. I had a good lunch with supreme court judge actor Ginsberg in Jax. She looked just like her and lived in Miami and was paid well. She had no lines. I was a court reporter and stood behind Ed Begley who I spoke to. Kevin Spacey was right there also and said not one word in the scene which was repeated twelve times. I am a writer and I am opposed to the leadership here. I remember watching the OJ trial for months in England and being deeply disappointed in the result. I think that many would be disappointed in Obama losing and also McCain. Fox radio hosts are sweating and having palpitations about Obama winning. Palin will not even address a possible failure. She prayed to become Mayor and prayed to become Governor and thinks she has the winning vote/prayer. Palin is sheltered from the news so she will not get depressed. What kind of leader has to be kept with 'head in the sand' rather than insisting on having 'ear to the ground'?

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19. At 6:11pm on 22 Oct 2008, Y_K_Hui wrote:
In your own words, Mr. Hewitt:

"He is on stage every day. He speaks, gives interviews but as to what really drives this extraordinary politician [Obama] we as watchers, voters cannot be sure."

I too felt the same, and so I have been digging up various sources (independent research rather than relying on the popular media), not just going along with the polls or my peers.

Please, voters, it is not too late to find out about the candidates. Look into their backgrounds and records--how they work or operate in actual politics, not just how they look or perform during campaigns.

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20. At 6:51pm on 22 Oct 2008, sepdet wrote:
The fear that many of us feel after the 2000 election was decided by the Supreme Court (and just this week, to add salt to the wound, CNN reports 3500 more uncounted ballots were found in a Florida warehouse) and the 2004 by possible voter suppression on a massive scale (Google "2004 Ohio election") is huge. Obama has called for the audacity of hope at a time when many Americans -- perhaps the majority of Americans -- had let the thorny armor of cynicism grow rampant years ago to insulate them from despair. We finally dare to believe things will get better again, that America can come together as the United States and not the Partisan States With Fifty Percent of Us Silenced. If he loses, a large majority of the US population will stop believing in the electoral process, in government, and in hope.

If that happens, God help us.

McCain's rallies with their incendiary rhetoric of suspicion and divisiveness offer a possible alternate future that many of us fear. We buy into it, too, as I'm doing here-- as soon as I start trying to describe the "McCain" paradigm I start talking in terms of "us versus them," fear, and mistrust. I don't want to be doing that either... but I feel like many of McCain's supporters don't see the problem with it.

I'm not usually one given to highfalutin' rhetoric -- or, for that matter, invoking "God" in public -- but I feel that the American Dream, meaning the collective soul of the country, really is at stake right now.

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21. At 7:38pm on 22 Oct 2008, paulogeorge005 wrote:
Obama's victory in November would be positive for America and speaking as an African, it will be of greater significance to democracy on the African continent. He has shown over the past twenty months that leadership qualities are not limited to an exclusive class of elite but that with hard work , commitment, dedication and audacious hope, a little nobody from the streets of Ajegunle in Lagos, can defy all odds to become a major party flag bearer and possibly win in a national election. He has inspired millions across continents to the extent there's a growing interest amongst lukewarm electorate in the democratic process. There's an awakening to reality among thousands of Obamas on the continent that much more than wishful thinking, the power of inspiration and the audacity of hope can help wrestle our collective fate from the hands of power drunken cliques.

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22. At 4:11pm on 24 Oct 2008, blogbag wrote:
If Obama wins then it is in no small part due to the lightweight and bias reporting of the BBC:

Obama and the Pitbull - title of Panaroma ropgramme
Latest blogs - McCain 'losing it' Obama 'the enigma'
Simon Schama's blatant electioneering on R4 and BBCTV fro Obama
Picture on the front of BBC Website trivilialising Palin - which one is the impersonator?
No challenge of any of Obamas dubious policies of background
Potrayal of MCCain supporters as old white rednecks

I really don't think the standard of journlism at the BBC could stoop any lower. There has to be an enquiry into bias in this organisation and the appalingly dummed down level of celebrity reporters. The BBC has been tring to swing a US election and engineer the downfall of a number of banks in the past month. Is this really what we want from a so called public service broadcaster - I don't think even Greg Dyke and John Birt would have stooped as low as Mark Thompson's BBC has - itis woeful. We need a proper independent enquiry about thi lot and not just another whitewash by Lyons and his cronies.

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23. At 10:30am on 25 Oct 2008, rixroxsta wrote:
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24. At 08:43am on 27 Oct 2008, blogbag wrote:
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25. At 05:56am on 28 Oct 2008, Britnomad wrote:
I am really afraid that McCain will win this election by fraud, just as George W did. It doesn't pay to underestimate just how far the Republicans will go to hold onto power.

Obama is charismatic and that should give everyone to pause - a leader needs more than charisma. Who is paying for all his advertising? Who will be looking for payback if he wins?

If Obama loses there will be terrible disappointment and anger - perhaps even violence.

How sad it is that America can't come up with presidential candidates who really seem to have principles and don't just jabber headlines.

I think that Obama should win - all the evidence shows that he does have overwhelming support - but, if he is allowed to succeed, can he then avoid disappointing not only Americans but his supporters all over the world? He's a man not a miracle, after all, and US policies are dictated by the interests of big business and I can't see that changing.

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