BBC NEWS | The Reporters

Rallying the crowd

Gavin Hewitt
13 Oct 08, 08:53 AM GMT

PHILADELPHIA AND SCRANTON, PENNSYLVANIA: A weekend in Pennsylvania. You can sense the optmism of the Democrats. Much as they try, they can't disguise it. Some are even questioning whether Pennsylvania is still a battleground state.

Barack Obama's team relish highlighting the in-fighting in the McCain camp over strategy.

In his speeches, Barack Obama never presumes victory but at his rallies the warm-up speeches are all focused on turnout. Registration has been a success. In recent weeks, the Democrats claim to have registered 200,000 voters.

Bill Clinton addresses the rally, image by Ian Sherwood

On Saturday at Locust street in Philadelphia, the large crowd was given tuition on election day: if you're in line, don't leave until you've voted. If you're in line, don't let them close the polling station. You can wear an Obama shirt. Don't let them disqualify you.

They were also told which ID would be accepted.

There remains a residual fear that once again people will stay at home on election day, particularly if the weather is bad.

The other fear concerns race, that some working class Democrats won't vote for a black candidate. The issue is openly discussed and no-one knows what part it will play in the silence of the voting booth.

This afternoon we were in Scranton, where Bill and Hillary Clinton appeared with Joe Biden and his wife Jill. There are still people who voted for Hillary in the primaries but are resisting voting for Barack Obama. We met a biker called Joe who was precisely in that position. He said he'd supported Hillary but was worried about Obama's background.

Bill Clinton wanted the audience to know first that it was his and Hillary's 33rd wedding anniversary. He also seemed keen to answer critics that Hillary was not somehow pulling her weight for Obama. She has done 50 events for Obama, he told the crowd. No former candidate, in his view, had done more.

Hillary still has strong support in places like Scranton. She was met with long chants of "Hillary, Hillary, Hillary". So, even though the polls are encouraging, the Democrats are deploying the Clintons to try to target white, working class voters.

The signs are, however, that the economic crisis is driving doubters into the Obama camp. The pollsters are noting a sharp increase in support for Obama and most of that is due to a feeling "that the country is on the wrong track".

As regards the wider strategy: the Obama team plans to count down the clock over the final 22 days. Barack Obama will appear presidential and calm. The aim is to reassure. No magic is needed. The pressure is all on McCain. That's how the Obama camp sees it.

So how to deal with optimism? Take no risks, avoid personal attacks, stay on message with the economy and ensure the grassroots organisation is working.

Comments

1. At 09:19am on 13 Oct 2008, smileytm303 wrote:
Obama is also going to announce a major push to protect voters on Monday. He's employing hundreds of volunteer lawyers around America to counter the Republican "challengers" and other tactics (like telling people--I heard this recently while in Georgia--that you can't vote if you have a parking violation).

The BBC needs to do some journalism on this aspect of American elections, which isn't well known enough outside the USA.

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2. At 10:24am on 13 Oct 2008, icetayoa wrote:
I have had a bet with my mates that John Mcain is the next president of America..the funny thing is that everyone thinks this is too far fetched..A lot of people will be shocked at the result but not i.. most people seem to forget that in politics, 24hrs is eternity, talk less of 22 whooping days.

People also forget that polls are fleeting and could be very unreliable when it comes down to actually casting of votes.

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3. At 11:38am on 13 Oct 2008, Hibou wrote:
#2 "I have had a bet with my mates that John Mcain is the next president of America.."

If that happens it will be another devastating shock for Americans and the world. It will be the end of American leadership, and the beginning of responsibility for the rest of us.

If Obama is elected, Americans will feel so proud of themselves at the enormity of what they have done that renewed self-confidence will know no bounds. The world will again believe in US.

I will buy American stocks again just before the election, betting that Obama and America will win.

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4. At 12:06pm on 13 Oct 2008, annaray wrote:
i am afraid it is true, 22 days is an eternity
strange isn't it? The real facts will stay much longer than 22 days, but somehow ( American??) ppl go for the "truth" of the day?

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5. At 12:44pm on 13 Oct 2008, Parrisia wrote:
too little, too late

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6. At 1:48pm on 13 Oct 2008, icetayoa wrote:
Ask any credible politician, they know that a Political race is never a sprint but a marathon

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7. At 3:55pm on 13 Oct 2008, Schwerpunkt wrote:
3. hiboutoo wrote:

"If that happens it will be another devastating shock for Americans and the world. It will be the end of American leadership"

Why? Because the American people will not have voted how foreigners want? Perhaps the US does need a period of less engagement with the world to focus on our own needs. You folks can deal with the issues in the world, such as a Russia flexing its muscles, crisis in Darfur &c, and enjoy the associated costs. I don't just mean the financial burden either.

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8. At 5:22pm on 13 Oct 2008, Richard Naef wrote:
Oh #2 can I take you up on that Bet? Opinion Polls are often wrong, but trends aren't, include the gradual shift to the Dems, the increase in young and non WASP voters, the disaffection of the rightwing evengelical vote with Mr McCain, then add the relatively small margins in the very few swing states needed to win the election a betting man would back Mr O. If u r still not convinced Google "bet on US election". Bookies aren't wrong very often!

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9. At 6:46pm on 13 Oct 2008, RLambr wrote:
It is heartbreaking and beyond comprehension that Obama's zealots complain that Hillary Clinton has not done enough to support their candidate.

No one has ever done more for a former opponent than Hillary Clinton.

She has campaigned tirelessly and with enthusiasm for Obama. I know it must be a sad thing for her to do, but she absolutely believes in the Democratic Party and is fighting for its election.

She has exhorted her 18 million supporters to get behind Obama. Most of them have done so, although there are still some who refuse to forgive Obama and the Democratic National Committee and Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi and other party officials for what they consider shabby and degrading treatment of Hillary.

There is no excuse for this mean and ugly attitude by Obama supporters.

Who can blame Bill Clinton for refusing to roll over and pretend it really doesn't matter?

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10. At 7:42pm on 13 Oct 2008, mwmonk wrote:
"At 10:24am on 13 Oct 2008, icetayoa wrote:
I have had a bet with my mates that John McCain is the next president of America.."

If I may offer a little advice, don't repeat that betwith a wider audience on BetFair or something like that, because you will lose money massively!!

Obama has an almost certain Electoral College majority, so even if the popular vote is as close as 2 or 3 % points, he will still win a mini-landslide in the election.

If he simply holds all the Kerry states, plus wins in Iowa and New Mexico, where he is way ahead by any calculation, he only needs 5 more EC votes to win.

If he then either wins anywhere else, like Virginia or Colorado, he wins the Presidency.

And he will almost certainly win one of the other states - in Virginia he is part of a super strong Democratic ballot featuring Mark Warner (the next Democratic Presidential Candidate in 2012 or 16) that will turn out a huge vote, that will wipe out the Republicans like in 2006.

In Colorado he has huge amounts of active, newly registered voters, outnumbering Republicans 3 or 4 to 1, all fired up by the Democratic Convention!

In Florida he is even winning the over-65 vote in the vital Tampa Bay area!!

Plus he raised anywhere up to $100 million in September, is outspending McCain on advertising 3 to 1 in EVERY swing state, and has bought 30 minutes of prime time television on all the US networks a week before the election, to broadcast an uncontested rebuttal of any McCain attack....

All in all, any sensible gambler can do nothing else but back Obama. FiveThirtyEight.com (who are uber-clever baseball statisticians and prediction analysts) currently give McCain a 6.2% chance of winning. You cannot waste your money in these hard times on a certain loser like that!!

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11. At 7:47pm on 13 Oct 2008, mwmonk wrote:
"At 10:24am on 13 Oct 2008, icetayoa wrote:
I have had a bet with my mates that John McCain is the next president of America.."

If I may offer a little advice, don't repeat that betwith a wider audience on BetFair or something like that, because you will lose money massively!!

Obama has an almost certain Electoral College majority, so even if the popular vote is as close as 2 or 3 % points, he will still win a mini-landslide in the election.

If he simply holds all the Kerry states, plus wins in Iowa and New Mexico, where he is way ahead by any calculation, he only needs 5 more EC votes to win.

If he then either wins anywhere else, like Virginia or Colorado, he wins the Presidency.

And he will almost certainly win one of the other states - in Virginia he is part of a super strong Democratic ballot featuring Mark Warner (the next Democratic Presidential Candidate in 2012 or 16) that will turn out a huge vote, that will wipe out the Republicans like in 2006.

In Colorado he has huge amounts of active, newly registered voters, outnumbering Republicans 3 or 4 to 1, all fired up by the Democratic Convention!

In Florida he is even winning the over-65 vote in the vital Tampa Bay area!!

Plus he raised anywhere up to $100 million in September, is outspending McCain on advertising 3 to 1 in EVERY swing state, and has bought 30 minutes of prime time television on all the US networks a week before the election, to broadcast an uncontested rebuttal of any McCain attack....

All in all, any sensible gambler can do nothing else but back Obama. FiveThirtyEight.com (who are uber-clever baseball statisticians and prediction analysts) currently give McCain a 6.2% chance of winning. You cannot waste your money in these hard times on a certain loser like that!!

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12. At 9:16pm on 13 Oct 2008, enricoidicus wrote:
It's cynical to say this, but I have a sneaking feeling there will be a awful terrorist attack just before the elections. Which will (oh what a surprise) tip the balance back towards McCain.

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13. At 9:46pm on 13 Oct 2008, scott maxwell wrote:
"Perhaps the US does need a period of less engagement with the world to focus on our own needs."

We couldn't be that lucky could we?

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14. At 02:53am on 14 Oct 2008, OldSouth wrote:
It's a tossup...with events seeming to outstrip everyone's ability to pronounce upon them, who knows?

Opinion from the guy who works the desk at my golf club, someone I'd swear would be a Hilary-to-Obama voter: 'When people get into the booth, they won't vote for Obama.'

Hmm...

But, who knows?

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15. At 08:30am on 14 Oct 2008, Canden_Zain wrote:
"Perhaps the US does need a period of less engagement with the world to focus on our own needs."

Hard to imagine an administration that has been less engaged with the opinions or needs of the rest of the world.

Lets be clear, for 8 years, Bush's foreign policy has been driven by one thing and one thing alone, the advancement of American interests overseas. As a result, America that was well loved under Clinton and empathised with after 9/11 is now the most hated country on earth.

If McCain is elected, fairly or by electoral fraud (far more likely IMO), what shred of respect America can still command around the world will be lost. Fortunately, once Palin replaces him as President, none of us will be around long enough to worry about it.

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16. At 6:26pm on 15 Oct 2008, timohio wrote:
This idea that people who have polled as being for Obama will somehow turn into rabid racists in the voting booth is just not realistic. There are plenty of legitimate reasons one could give to a pollster for not wanting Obama as president. Anyone who wouldn't vote for a black man could simply say they don't like Obama's foreign policy ideas, for example. Or bring up this Ayers nonsense. I think the comment by the guy in OldSouth's golf club is just wishful thinking on his part.

I suspect, on the other hand, that there is a large number of un-polled Obama supporters. As Gavin's blog mentioned, there has been a huge voter registration effort by the Democrats--not just in Pennsylvania, but nationwide. A sizable percentage of the new voters are young people, who tend to have cell phones rather than land-line telephones. Public opinion polls in the US are conducted over the phone and exclusively use land-line phone numbers. So there could be more support for Obama than the polls indicate.

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17. At 7:26pm on 15 Oct 2008, frayedcat wrote:
The Clintons are doing a fine job supporting Obama.

I don't think even the conspiracy theorists' "last-minute-GOP-planned-Israel-attacks-Iran" event would land McCain in office, for two reasons - McCain's hypocrisy and Palin (or is that just one reason?).

McCain has contradicted himself too often, starting with the premise of running a 'reform' platform when his party is the incumbent.

Add to the mix the incomprehensible, illiterate, rabble-rousing, power-abusing Palin - whom you would think would be McCain's last choice on earth for VP, and I am left astonished that they have double digit support. Kind of makes you proud of the 'die-hard' American.

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18. At 11:03am on 19 Oct 2008, JMH1969 wrote:
Canden_Zain, you say,"If McCain is elected, fairly or by electoral fraud (far more likely IMO)" You want to talk about electorial fraud, then lets talk about ACORN.

And for timohio, you say,"this Ayers nonsense". What nonsense would that be, that Ayers is a self confessed domestic terrorist? Avoided prosicution because of a technicality? Or that Obama kicked off his campaign for public office from Ayers living room?

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