BBC NEWS | The Reporters

Nervous final days

Gavin Hewitt
31 Oct 08, 11:53 PM GMT

Highland, Indiana: Have you ever spoken to someone trying to suppress excitement? They tend to struggle. They do their best to deny it but it seeps through. And so it is with Barack Obama's inner circle. His campaign manager David Plouffe said today: "We're happy to be where we are now." At one piece of polling news he used the word "thrilled".

Barack Obama walks with his daughter Sasha in Chicago at Halloween

One sign of that optimism: they're going to spend some money this weekend on TV ads in of all places Arizona - John McCain's home state. This may be a bit of mischief, tweaking your opponent's tail but there is not much room for mischief four days from polling. The Obama team says even in Arizona they see the race tightening in their favour.

Another reason for their confidence is early voting. They reckon that come 4th November, 40% of Americans will have voted early. What the Obama analysts are seeing is a high number of first-time voters and independents going to the polls and they are hopeful that they will back Obama. In the past the Republicans have done better at early voting. Not this time. In many states its registered Democrats who have voted early. That enthusiasm encourages the campaign. They are noticing, too, that African Americans are voting in large numbers. Hispanics too. That, in their view, is one of the stories of the election: the number of Hispanics breaking for Obama.

This final weekend is all about organisation. Barack Obama will not announce any new themes. His job now is to inspire, to get the vote out. Across the country the Democrats say they will have over a million volunteers active. They are more confident of their polling data than in the past. They are able to target those who have not voted and get them to the polling stations. The Democrats' organisation is far superior to four years ago. One insider told me they had learnt from the Republicans and are determined not to be out-organised.

Chicago skyline

Barack Obama always counsels against compaceny. "Power never concedes," he likes to say.

The Obama team knows that John McCain's aides are saying the "race is tightening". They don't see it. There are some anxieties about Ohio and they believe Florida will, once again, be tight. They know, too, that there are undecideds out there. That is why the campaign was so delighted that 33 million Americans watched Obama's slick commercial. One TV executive said it was simply "stunning" that so many people had sat through a political ad.

So in these final days we sense the expectation in the Obama camp but on display, too, are the nerves of the front-runner. They want the election now rather than on Tuesday. So in the last frenetic push Barack Obama will swing through Nevada and Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolinia before heading back to Chicago.

Comments

1. At 00:10am on 01 Nov 2008, twokidsandadog wrote:
Gavin,

Please help me out - both sides are delighted with the polling and are extremely positive. Who's right and who's wrong?

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2. At 01:59am on 01 Nov 2008, britinportland wrote:
My feeling is that the Republicans are talking things up ('we still stand a chance - vote for us!') and the Democrats are talking things down ('don't be complacent about winning - vote for us!').

By this stage I think most have made their mind up. The variable is voter turn-out.

Roll on Tuesday...

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3. At 02:07am on 01 Nov 2008, Stephen Derry wrote:
Obama's not visiting Arizona then? Shame.

From a nationwide perspective, the polling looks good for the Democrats. But in the battleground states that McCain needs to win, he is in contention. To an extent he just has to keep working away at the Pennsylvanias, Iowas and Ohios, and hope the Floridas and southern states take care of themselves.

It would be heartwrenching for McCain if he won his target states but lost the election because Obama stole a couple of Red states he thought were safe!

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4. At 10:10am on 01 Nov 2008, dhimmi wrote:
"Have you ever spoken to someone trying to suppress excitement? "

No but a lot of people have spoken to a newspaper (the LA Times) trying to suppress a videotape where Obama allegedly states that Israel is committing genocide

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5. At 11:03am on 01 Nov 2008, acenavigator wrote:
This one is a vicious campaign. The stake involved is something more than winning the Presidency: whether the US is mature enough to accept a black man as its President. An astute politician, Obama knows that it will not be so easy or straightforward as it appears. That's why he says power does not concede. It is apparent that Obama has the qualifications essential for becoming a fine President. But the question is whether the US is willing to recognize these qualifications/abilities and accept him as a President. This is what everyone is thrilled about. Not only Democrats but also Republicans. Not only the US but also the entire world. It is not Obama becoming a President which thrills, but a black man becoming a President. There is a good chance that the world, on 5/11/2008 will wake up to a different America, one that has reconciled to its past. This is what which thrills. If Mc Cain wins, the US, has still, a long way to go.

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6. At 11:45am on 01 Nov 2008, Stephen Derry wrote:
It is technically possible for a nation to be mature enough to elect a black man as President, but still elect a white man. No nation should elect someone solely on the basis of his colour.

I would urge everyone to vote for the man they think is most capable of doing the job.

And yes, on this occasion I personally believe it is the black man.

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7. At 12:47pm on 01 Nov 2008, TimFHayes wrote:
Gavin

Your picture blog contains what is alleged to be the "Sears Tower" in Chicago. No, it is actually the Hancock building.

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8. At 4:23pm on 01 Nov 2008, akaTurkish_delight wrote:
Thank you Mr Hewitt. The excitement of the American Elections 08 is palpable even from the continent of Africa where I am currently living as an expatriate.

Like many other people, I have followed your blogs and also the blogs of your colleague Matthew Price to get a balance of opinions.

An excellent post from "acenavigator" message number 5. I agree wholeheartedly with everything you've said, I couldn't have written it better myself.

I sincerely hope that Barack Obama becomes the 44th President of the United States of America.

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9. At 4:37pm on 01 Nov 2008, ynda20 wrote:
Rather shocked, not that Arnie supports McCain, but he uses distortion to do so. Arnie says that Obama has raised so much money that he could bail out the banks! Er... not even an order of magnitude out! Bank bail out: £700billion. Obama funds in hundreds of millions. Is this what we should expect from politicians? That they can't tell the difference between a million and billion?

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10. At 4:50pm on 01 Nov 2008, FinMember wrote:
Much as it has been down played race will probably sill be a determiner in the election. Can Americans overcome their bigotry? People utside the US see clearly a better man in Obama. There shouldn't be any possibility of another bush republican getting anywhere near the white house. If the democrats had a capable whitte man this would be no contest, now we wait for November 4th and hope Obama gets elected.

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11. At 8:09pm on 01 Nov 2008, aquarizonagal wrote:
I have already voted for Obama but he is correct to tell us not to be complacent and to keep working because there are more votes yet to be cast and counted.

#8 Note to:Akaturkishdelight

Did you get my message on a previous thread about the moderators and did you ever get the post you wanted through their censorship or even receive an answer from them?

I love Africa, a most beautiful, complex and sometimes sad continent. I have spent months in several places there but it would take over a life time to even touch the surface of such a vast land.

I Thank you for your kind words in support of Barack Obama. I hold great hope.

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12. At 9:21pm on 01 Nov 2008, everyoneiscrazy wrote:
"No but a lot of people have spoken to a newspaper (the LA Times) trying to suppress a videotape where Obama allegedly states that Israel is committing genocide"

I'm confused.

Aren't they?

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13. At 9:40pm on 01 Nov 2008, akaTurkish_delight wrote:
Dear "aquarizonagal",

Good on you for voting for Obama.

No I have yet to hear back from the moderators as to why my post number 10 was removed from a mesage I had written in response to one of Matthew Price's blogs.

I was also posting messages in response to Matthew Price's blogs as there was a lot of untruths being written about Obama and his supporters and I felt the need to have my voice heard and stick up for Obama. He is an educated, young, inspirational and articulate leader who will change the way America is perceived in the rest of the world.

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14. At 9:41pm on 01 Nov 2008, ChristaB wrote:
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
15. At 9:52pm on 01 Nov 2008, quietlaurieann wrote:
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
16. At 11:06pm on 01 Nov 2008, Proud Texan wrote:
Well, we'll see if America is better off in 4 years than it is today. Obama has promised everything to everyone, unless of course you are earning over $250,000 in which case you are demonized by Obama as stingy. As though working hard enough to earn that kind of money is a bad thing to be punished. I actually saw a vid of a black woman at his rally saying now she won't have to worry about paying for petrol or electricity anymore; the Messiah will have those rich people pay for it.
Shame, shame, shame on the press, BBC included, for glossing over all the warning signs about Obama. Radical friends, illegal alien aunt, massive vote fraud by his fav community action group. Sleazy political beginnings, on and on. All swept under the rug by the big media.
A lot of America's enemies hate our country, not just Bush. They'll learn soon enough that Obama is a patsy and will run from a fight. All the free world should be very worried. The tough older brother just quit protecting you.

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17. At 11:44pm on 01 Nov 2008, RomeStu wrote:
#16 chuck
"Shame, shame, shame on the press, BBC included, for glossing over all the warning signs about Obama. Radical friends, illegal alien aunt, massive vote fraud by his fav community action group. Sleazy political beginnings, on and on. All swept under the rug by the big media."

Or perhaps all the media organisations looked at these slurs, did a bit of basic research - not on pyjamas.com - and realised it was scaremongering not news, and decided to run some actual stories.....

And now Obama has an alien aunt. I knew the little red men from Mars (red socialist planet) were secretly funding his campaign with moondollars

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18. At 00:14am on 02 Nov 2008, Gary_A_Hill wrote:
ynda20 (#9), that is just hyperbole, Sxhwarzenegger's way of making a joke. Certainly everyone in California understands his sense of humor, if not those elsewhere.

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19. At 03:56am on 02 Nov 2008, everyoneiscrazy wrote:
"The tough older brother just quit protecting you."

Protecting us from who exactly.

It seems to most of us that our tough older brother just goes around picking fights against those smaller than him, helped by his scrawny little friend, who just sits in his shadow, smug and protected.

Sounds like a bully to me.

Now that they have started picking on the slightly mad kids from the (middle)east side i'm getting a bit nervous. It'll all end in tears (and blood).

So i'm glad he going to quit. Looking forward though to a friend, coming to help us if needed. He's making crazy statements abount talking to these kids. I don't know, it might work.

Lets give it a try

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20. At 1:18pm on 02 Nov 2008, Proud Texan wrote:
Well, RomeStu and Everyoneiscrazy, as John Lennon wrote, "living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see."
The liberal media simply ignores any information negative to Obama; it's as simple as that. Non-partisan examination of media coverage of the candidates is clear.
Aren't you a little queasy that the vast majority of all these new voters get their political knowledge from MTV and the Daily Show?
As Forrest Gump said, "stupid is as stupid does."

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21. At 11:04am on 04 Nov 2008, BaronBamford wrote:
Chuck

What impact do you think the Daily Show will have on voters? I understand it gets around 3m regular viewers, 1% of the US population. Do you think that all these viewers are:

a) going to vote.
b) have previously never voted.
c) will vote for Obama.
d) only watch the Daily Show and MTV.
e) are incapable of independant thought.

Would you say the influence of left leaning media in the US is greater than that of right leaning media. You may identify what you see as democrat favouring political bias in elements of the media, I can certainly see a very long history of promotion of a conservative republican agenda in large parts of the US media.

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