A presidency, usually, is no small thing. It smacks of power, of ritual, of ceremony. Spain would have you agree. It has just taken over the rotating EU Presidency.

Next weekend, guests are invited to Madrid to celebrate the moment. European leaders like the presidency. They can revel in summitry, in receiving international figures, in appearing at the centre of events.

They hope, but it does not all always happen that way, that the flashing of the cameras will improve their ratings. The embattled Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will be no different. He needs all the help he can with Spain mired in debt and unemployment. Its construction industry has collapsed leaving four million out of work.

So what will the Spanish do with this six-month bubble of power?

The Spanish foreign minister has laid out some priorities: implementing the Lisbon Treaty, finding a way out of the financial crisis and initiatives to develop the rights and freedoms of EU citizens. Oh, there is also the matter of a Palestinian state, "the sooner the better", according to the foreign minister. And perhaps new openings for Cuba.

All of these may be important or even desirable, but it's a fair bet that across Europe, if you were to tap opinion in the bars and brasseries, there would be surprising unanimity on what to do even with a sliver of power.

Jobs, growth, getting Europe moving again. The rest can go hang.

For out there, even as the recession recedes, it leaves in its wake a stunning crisis. Across large parts of Europe a young generation is without work. The stats speak for themselves. Youth unemployment in Spain is 42%. In Greece it's 25%. In Italy it's almost 27%. Ireland is around there too.

Such numbers, without hope, can have profound consequences for societies. This is not just a human crisis, however, it is a potential crisis for the single currency. This could be the biggest challenge for the euro. How do these countries stimulate their economies while having to reduce their deficits to comply with rules that govern belonging to the euro.

To be fair to the Spanish prime minister, he wants to make economic recovery a priority of his EU Presidency. The danger, for him, is that the EU appears too focused on its
internal structures, on making the Lisbon Treaty work. Already one survey suggests that two-thirds of the Spanish people have no interest in EU business.

The political risk for Prime Minister Zapatero is that he becomes the face of an institution that seems distracted by, for instance, setting up a new diplomatic service. There is another problem for Madrid: the wings of the rotating presidency have been clipped.

Under the Lisbon Treaty, which now governs how the EU functions, summits will be chaired not by Mr Zapatero, but by Herman Van Rompuy, the permanent President of the European Council. Mr Zapatero can't guarantee a seat at the final press conference.
Back home he could be judged an empty suit.

Mr Van Rompuy has already suggested an informal summit in February to discuss economic problems. There may well be arguments over whose power extends where and, if that happens, the risk is that the EU's leaders seem too focused on themselves and their institutions rather than on the needs of ordinary people.

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This is the time of year when we all imagine what the next 12 months will look like. Events have a habit of making fools of us all, but here are the stories that I expect to be looking at in 2010.

European confidence after Copenhagen

As early as January there will be much soul-searching over how Europe was sidelined at Copenhagen. Many of its ideas were picked up, but there will be pressure to regain its leadership role. Will the EU be more influential at the next big meeting in Bonn? First, the divisions within the Union will have to be addressed.

The debt crisis

This is perhaps the biggest fear for Europe. What will happen if a eurozone country can't reduce its deficit or finance its debt? Look at Greece. It has passed an "austerity" budget but believes it can cut its deficit by attacking corruption, tax evasion and waste. Many believe that won't do it. Then what? How far should the EU step in? Could it negotiate a bail-out and would countries like Germany agree to a bail-out?

Watch, too, the Republic of Ireland and Spain. And then there are the sick ecomonies outside the euro.

The recession

How will Europe emerge from the recession? How will it compare to the United States? Expect the Commission to try and enforce competition policy rigorously and to resist any signs of protectionism.

The Lisbon Treaty

Was it worth the eight years of argument and agony? Will the EU be more democratic, more efficient, and more effective on the world stage? The tests start in January with
the Spanish presidency of the EU. Already its foreign minister says that it will be at the service of Herman Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton, the new faces of the EU. There remains a strong suspicion that the big countries don't want these figures to take the limelight. We will know in the next 12 months.

European Parliament hearings

One of the claims for the Lisbon Treaty is that it makes the EU more democratic. Expect MEPs in January to flex their muscles at the confirmation hearings for the new commissioners. It will be interesting to see how they question the foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton.

Identity

Europe will continue to be anxious over its identity, in the face of immigration and the fear that separate unintegrated communities are growing up. Early in the new year France will decide whether to ban the burka. There may be legal challenges in Switzerland to the ban on minarets.

The Tories in Britain

If the Tories win the election (probably in May) how will they act in power towards Europe? How willing will they be to expend capital on trying to wrest back powers from Brussels? Will they regret not being a member of the centre-right EPP bloc and losing influence?

Silvio Berlusconi

2009 was a horrible year for the Italian prime minister. Will he bounce back and will Italy become dangerously divided?

The EU budget

It grew again last year, but countries may resist paying more when they are busy paying down their debt. Expect scrutiny of EU spending and an argument once again over the dominant slice of the budget taken by the Common Agricultural Policy.

Energy

Europe will watch the Ukrainian elections anxiously to see if instability leads to another crisis with Russia and an interruption in gas supplies.

The environment

Finally, how will we judge whether Europe is serious about managing the environment? My pick is the bluefin tuna. That may be the litmus test of how serious the EU is in protecting species under threat.

I will take a break until 3 January, unless events intervene.To those who have enjoyed my blog: Thank you. To those who have disagreed: We will all have another chance to debate further in 2010. Happy New Year!

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Imagine if you believe you have had the smart ideas, that you have set the agenda, that you are leading by example, that you are defining the future and at the defining moment, when all your hard work should bear fruit, the door is shut in your face. You think it is almost your party but you are stopped at the rope line.

Others who you never imagined were even players are being waved into the inner sanctum. A deal is being done and you are not invited.

Some say this was Europe's fate in Copenhagen. To be "snubbed", "bypassed", "sidelined". All those words have been used.

In the final hours of a chaotic and exhausting meeting a two-and-a-half page accord is drawn up. The United States is there. So too China. They are the big two and the chief carbon emitters. Also present: Brazil, India and South Africa. Powerful emerging nations and a new world order.

As for Europe, the world's biggest trading bloc - they get a text message.

The Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, current holder of the EU presidency, learns about the accord on his mobile phone. He is still negotiating, but the real business has been done elsewhere. He senses that President Obama had been desperate to wrap the summit up and muses whether it was because "there was a snowstorm coming" towards Washington.

Some European leaders felt they ended up as the rubber-stampers of the accord and not its architects.

There is an element of caricature here. Some of Europe's leaders were very active in Copenhagen. Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy worked tirelessly to get a deal and the British prime minister has scarcely been able to hide his frustration at the summit's chaos. Certainly British officials had influence on the final outcome but, even so, the sense of being on the outside remains.

Spool back to some recent European Council meetings. At the last one, while Copenhagen was in session, I remember being told that the new money that Europe had pledged to help developing nations in the short term (before 2012) would lead to a breakthrough. It would demonstrate that the rich world would pay to reduce the global impact of climate change. This was a "show the money" moment. I was told that Europe's offer would persuade the poorer countries that down the road many more billions would come their way. Gordon Brown was bullish. Europe and the UK was leading by example, he believed.

Then go back further to another council. European leaders believed they were setting an example by agreeing that by 2020 the developing world would need 100bn euros to adapt to climate change. Early on they had committed the EU to cutting emissions by 20% by 2020. If others joined in it would move to 30%. The message was that on climate change Europe was leading the world.

Here are more questions than answers. Did Europe misjudge its influence? In Copenhagen should it have made a larger offer to cut emissions, to create momentum? Would it have made a difference? Was Europe's hand weakened because it was masking deep divisions among its nation states? Why does the EU not have the stronger voice it so obviously craves?

Occasionally a still photograph gives an insight that moving pictures do not. It happened in Copenhagen. It is a group picture. To the right is Barack Obama. To his left is Gordon Brown, bent over a piece of paper. He appears to be amending a text. To Obama's left is Sarkozy. Across from them is Chancellor Merkel. To her side is Jose Manuel Barroso. Fredrik Reinfeldt is there too. The meeting appears informal and spontaneous. What struck me was that these were Europe's power-players. As always the big three were there: Germany, France and the UK. Sitting alongside was the President of the Commission and the leader of the country that holds the rotating presidency. Now it may be too soon after the Lisbon Treaty was signed to expect to see any difference. But this question will be returned to time and again in 2010. Will Europe's new "big names," Herman Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton, be in the frame or will Europe's big beasts continue as the face of Europe?

Europe is disappointed at the outcome of the summit in Copenhagen. Some believe, however, that it is a step along the road to a binding global agreement. Attention moves to a meeting in Bonn in the late spring. How will Europe approach this? How will it settle its differences and how will it ensure it remains at the table when the deal is done? It will be another test for Europe's ambitions.

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