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Vaccinate all children says mother of girl killed by swine flu

Fergus Walsh | 21:25 UK time, Wednesday, 12 January 2011

The heart-rending story of three-year-old Lana Ameen has once again raised the issue of whether flu jabs should be available for healthy under-fives.

She fell ill with swine flu on Christmas Eve and died of multiple organ failure in Alder Hey Hospital, Liverpool, on Boxing Day. She had no previous health issues.

Her parents, a doctor and a nurse, released photos of her in intensive care, just hours before her death, in a bid to persuade ministers to change the policy on vaccination to allow all children to be immunised.

Her mother Gemma, who is 12 weeks pregnant, said: "I don't know how they can say my child wasn't worth having a few pounds worth of vaccine which could have saved her life. Not everybody who is healthy has been able to fight it off."

It is certainly true that some healthy people have died from flu this winter. About one in three deaths since October have been among those who did not fall into the official at-risk groups.

There is a danger that tragic and rare cases like that of Lana Ameen could create a fear factor among parents - greatly exaggerating the risks from swine flu which has already infected millions of children. The vast majority who have been infected recover completely. But Lana's parents say her death shows that all children should be protected.

It would take several weeks to gear up GPs to offer the jab to healthy children and then about two weeks for the vaccine to take effect. So it is too late for a change of policy on immunisation this winter.

There is an apparent contradiction in government policy on flu immunisation. Last year, all children between six months and five years were offered the pandemic H1N1 swine flu jab - more than three million children.

This year swine flu remains the dominant strain and has caused nine out of 10 deaths, yet healthy children are not being offered the vaccine. But to be fair the government is following the advice of experts (opens pdf) on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

So any contradiction - if there is one at all - is not with ministers, but with the committee that recommends policy on immunisation. The JCVI's advice is in contrast to that from the US where the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), has recommended (opens pdf) that people of all ages, healthy and otherwise, should be immunised.

We interviewed the head of Immunisation at the Department of Health, Professor David Salisbury, and he stressed that the JCVI was constantly reviewing the data on flu risks.

He said: "The first thing we must use our health resources for is to get at the people where the greatest gain will come, and the greatest gain will come from people with risk factors. If we suddenly said, without evidence, we should include all children under 18, that is up to 12 million people. It would divert doctors and nurses from saving lives. In 2011 we will be reviewing all our vaccine policy for influenza and we will look very carefully at the issue of age groups, risk factors and so on."

It is clear the issue of who gets offered the jab will be reconsidered in future, as it is each year. If the policy does change then GPs will need to be told quickly, as they will be putting their orders in soon for next winter's flu jabs.

There is also the question about how many parents would take up the offer of a jab. Just 23% of healthy children under five were immunised last year.

We don't know for sure whether having the H1N1 jab last year guarantees protection from the virus this winter - those studies are being done.

Just one in two of those under 65 who are in at-risk groups and so are most vulnerable to flu get protected each year. If immunisation is extended, then how many parents would get their healthy children protected year after year?

Comments

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  • 1. At 10:05pm on 12 Jan 2011, tinkerbelle wrote:

    I have no doubt in my mind that ALL under-fives should receive the vaccine. At risk or otherwise healthy. Why gamble with children's lives? Many children have undiagnosed chronic illnesses, such as asthma, which aren't firmly diagnosed until they are 2 or 3 years old. That poor family. My thoughts are with them.

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  • 2. At 10:29pm on 12 Jan 2011, Mummytofour wrote:

    Words cannot describe how the poor family must be feeling. The news tonight has no doubt sparked even more worry and fear but quite rightly so. With four children ages 7 down to 18 months it is an incredibly worrying time. Is it possible to get the vaccine privately? We live in Somerset and I would be happy to travel for it. Also, how do you know if family members have had it? Two of our children were poorly before Christmas with quite a number of the swine flu symptoms but how do we know if they have had it? Also why didn't the rest of the family pick it up? I really hope that the government think long and hard.

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  • 3. At 10:36pm on 12 Jan 2011, ashishkpandey wrote:

    Please allow to vaccinate all children under 5 year. Today was my child’s first day in school, because he had completed his 3rd bday in last December. But as a parent We are not happy about that, we are just worry about swine flu.

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  • 4. At 10:48pm on 12 Jan 2011, diffusa wrote:

    What a tragedy - my heart goes out to Lana's parents. This is a good article from FW that clearly highlights our decision-making 'process' and that does seem rather over-dependent on the views of a few doctors - not politicians or even civil servants. The decision is essentially a utilitarian balancing act and with 'flu we will always be running to catch up but perhaps a larger group of people with differing perspectives ought to be involved somewhere in this process?

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  • 5. At 10:57pm on 12 Jan 2011, 29Gemini wrote:

    I think it is madness not to get everyone vaccinated. I cannot believe there is a prevention and goverment is letting people die..We r not talking about people suffering mild illness or even severe illness..people are dying..Dr Gerade (head of royal college of GPs)is amazing when she says worried well are wasting vaccines.Is she not aware healthy 20 and 30 years old have died from this flu..Is it the fault of public that GPs have not built up enough stock of the vaccine.Professor David Head of Immunisation comment- 'use our health resources to get at people who are at greates risk to maximise the gain'..reaks of cost cutting measures..does any life have a cost to it espcially when so easily prevented. his comment that giving vaccines would stop nurses and doctors attending to sickest..so what is happening now..most of the hospitals in north west have shut their elective admission and most of the hospital staff are looking after the flu afflicted patients..so where is the wisdom in this..apart from the insane life loss and misery caused to the numerous families.
    My heart goes out to the poor mother who lost her lovely daughter and I do agree with her who is anyone to say that her daughter's life was not worth few quids of the vaccine beacuse vaccine would def have saved her. American board of immunisation has advised vaccination for all under five and it is definetly not insane to do that.
    I think the whole issue is scandoulous and responsibility for this has to be taken by the goverment and call for the resignation of the head of immunisation prof david as well health secreatary!!!!!!!

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  • 6. At 11:02pm on 12 Jan 2011, britk1664 wrote:

    Shocking news about that poor little girl and her family.
    Hopefully the government will do something soon,how many more kids lifes do we have to lose. the government should make it compulsery that every baby and child have the right to be vacinated. if they are saying that it isnt fesible due to cost, then they should look at the millions it takes to keep these killers in jail playing on their xboxes.get rid of people who dont want to be in this country and dont respect life, and give these little people a chance in life!

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  • 7. At 11:11pm on 12 Jan 2011, Getaperspective wrote:

    Despite my username, which was created before this tragic story, I don't feel that any deaths that are potentially so easily preventable should be 'put into context' or 'in perspective' - in other words: 'let's save the money'. It is ridiculous that children have so many childhood vaccinations and that this is not available to them at the moment. It is true that the vaccine is not 100% effective but in this day and age and in this country it should be available to all children and adults if they want it. I have a perfectly healthy child who had Influenza B a few years ago aged 9, appeared to be much better after a week and then suddenly became very ill, developed viral pneumonia and was hospitalised and fortunately recovered. My children have had the flu jab, although not on the NHS because it was not available to them. My heartfelt sympathies go out to Lana's family and I applaud their determination in raising the flu vaccination issue so that hopefully u-turns will be made and children of all ages will be better protected. What on earth was the Government going to do with all the Pandemrix had this surge in flu cases not occurred? Let it go to waste despite many people probably wanting it if it was available? I suspect they will keep the current policy in effect purely because vaccine stocks are low but let's hope with this publicity that they make some real changes to the system for next year that reflect our needs.

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  • 8. At 11:17pm on 12 Jan 2011, Mummytofour wrote:

    Getaperspective - please can you tell me where you had a private vaccine? With children under 5 I understand this to be a problem?

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  • 9. At 11:31pm on 12 Jan 2011, Getaperspective wrote:

    Mummytofour - you will just have to make a list and phone around various clinics, private hospitals and private doctors starting with the ones nearest to you and up to however far you are prepared to travel. I believe that young children may need a booster shot as well.

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  • 10. At 11:47pm on 12 Jan 2011, Getaperspective wrote:

    One more point - my child caught Influenza B in the summer from a mystery source. We hadn't travelled and nobody we knew was ill, so I definitely don't think that it is 'too late' to have a vaccination this winter. Sometimes the statistics need to be ignored. After all, the swine flu pandemic started in April.

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  • 11. At 11:58pm on 12 Jan 2011, PKD wrote:

    What?! I'm in the United States, and this story is shocking. I have a four-year-old daughter, and I got her vaccinated for free. I would be devastated if this happened to her. My condolences to the family, and hopes that the vaccine is made available ASAP.

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  • 12. At 00:58am on 13 Jan 2011, AlleKat wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 13. At 01:56am on 13 Jan 2011, AlleKat wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 14. At 05:00am on 13 Jan 2011, MorryCardiff wrote:

    My doctors' surgery doesn't send out reminders for children in at risk groups and when you try to get such a child immunised they ask you to wait until they have done the over 65s first - which to my mind is ridiculous. In the case of flu, the over 65s already have a greater immunity than my 4 year old who suffers with asthma!

    The real problem is our obsession with vacinating people based on the assumption that being 65 means that you are frail whereas the truth is that most people dying from flu are under 65 with a lot of them under 18.

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  • 15. At 06:29am on 13 Jan 2011, Mark wrote:

    The government's line that they are simply following the advice of experts is disingenuous.

    When a panel of experts gave them advice about drug classification, they completely ignored it because it didn't suit their headline-chasing agenda.

    The government only "follows" expert advice when it happens to coincide with their own agenda, which in this case is to save money.

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  • 16. At 06:34am on 13 Jan 2011, TechSing wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 17. At 06:55am on 13 Jan 2011, emmakl wrote:

    We felt so strongly about this that we allowed our eldest 2 children (then 2 and 4) to take part in the Swine Flu vaccine trials last year and I had it too as I was pregnant. This year we have all had the flu vaccine privately - last week. The children have to have a booster a month after the first dose but it is reassuring to know that they are busy building up antibodies to the three strains of flu, including Swine Flu. We are based in London but would have travelled if we hadn't been able to find a private clinic. At £20 for each vaccine it has been expensive but with one child at school, one just starting nursery and a 9 month old baby it is more than worth it for the peace of mind. We will have the vaccine every year.

    My heart goes out to Lana's family - I am so sorry to hear of their loss and I do hope that the Government will think very hard about what they do next year.

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  • 18. At 07:35am on 13 Jan 2011, Flumonitor wrote:

    Firstly, my deepest sympathies to the family. Losing a child must be one of the hardest things to cope with in life.

    There is an additional argument for vaccinating all school age children that the JCVI did not consider.

    It has long been known that children act as 'superspreaders', and subsequently carry flu back into the community, fuelling flu outbreaks, so that case numbers peak sharply.

    It is argued in some quarters (with good reason) that vaccinating all children may reduce the impact of flu outbreaks and the potential for flu surges and epidemics amongst the 'at risk' groups in society that subsequently overload healthcare systems. Combined with vaccination of 'at risk' groups such a strategy could do much to reduce the impact of flu each year. The rationale is outlined well in this paper from 2005
    http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/161/4/303.abstract

    Whilst the impact may not be enormous in 'mild' years, the benefits to society as a whole could be substantial in epidemic years or years where seasonal strains are unusually virulent. Whilst the overall incidence of flu may not be reduced, it may spread the impact of flu and hospitalisations over the season, so that medical services are better able to cope; the problems come when beds and GPs get overloaded in flu surges. If the outbreak curve is flattened over time, then it can be argued that the health system could continue functioning within its normal capabilities, without the need for cancellation of operations etc. Additionally there are likely to be economic gains from reducing sick absences from work amongst parents who catch flu from thier children.

    Given the co-circulation of H3N2 and the fact that the swine flu virus is still early in its evolution, it is likely that the world will face ongoing epidemic levels of flu for some years to come, and on this basis alone, perhaps the JCVI may wish to reconsider add these economic and health factors into its evaluations, along with the more obvious factors of protecting children themselves from severe illness or death.

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  • 19. At 08:06am on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    History has a funny old way of repeating itself i.e. Following somebody elses agenda - like sheep.

    Those who are old enough will remember, amongst others, the Thalidomide scandal. And for those of you are are thinking of providing your children with a useless, untested, un-proven flu vaccine - some of the children are expected to live! The sensational headlines just to sell some more papers and sell a boat load of crumby drugs is a disgrace.

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  • 20. At 08:10am on 13 Jan 2011, diddlysquat wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 21. At 08:15am on 13 Jan 2011, diddlysquat wrote:

    No 16 you are bang on. Money,money, money (or lack of). To those making the decisions (including the Government) a "few" deaths are acceptable.........but not to us.

    Put the blame where it should be and learn the lessons for next year. Sadly it seems too late for this year.

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  • 22. At 08:36am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    "If we suddenly said, without evidence, we should include all children under 18, that is up to 12 million people. It would divert doctors and nurses from saving lives"

    Complete nonsense. If the vaccine can be given at Tesco's then its hardly taking doctors away from 'life saving'. I had a TB jab at school and as far as I know they still vaccinate girls against German measles and now cervical cancer at school. Its hardly rocket science....

    In addition the 'cost' argument is weak too. It costs well over £10,000 a day to treat someone for flu in an intensive care unit. Thats a lot of doses of vaccine.

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  • 23. At 08:40am on 13 Jan 2011, Disto wrote:

    False economy- Forgive me for being frank, but I don't believe in this idea of spending millions of tax immunising 3 million children, to prevent a single death, when not only would it at best give limited time protection compared to actual infection, which 9/10 will be completely asymptomatic and give the children an improved immune response in the future but also for a risk which is so slight, that it is for more dangerous to go outside, cross the road, go to school. If the risks of death is 1 in 3 million, I'd much rather spend that money on research to prevent complications from birth, abnormalities, which kill hundreds, thousands of children. Not just one. Most people who die from the flu already have something wrong with them, I'd much rather see that diagnosed and treated then pointlessly vaccinating millions of children, especially when research has found that the new exposure to swine flu has supercharged immune systems responses to flu in the population.

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  • 24. At 08:42am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    19. At 08:06am on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:
    History has a funny old way of repeating itself i.e. Following somebody elses agenda - like sheep.

    Those who are old enough will remember, amongst others, the Thalidomide scandal. And for those of you are are thinking of providing your children with a useless, untested, un-proven flu vaccine - some of the children are expected to live!
    _____________

    Thats libellous. Thalidomide is a 60 year old drug. People like you can't find anything more recent because the regulatory bodies stepped up the testing regime to the point where if you invented it today penicillin would be rejected as unsafe.

    The reason the flu vaccine was 2 months late last year was because of the trials it was going through. Its neither 100% safe, nor 100% effective but it makes a big difference. Its because of vaccination that diseases like smallpox are extinct and polio virtually extinct.

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  • 25. At 08:43am on 13 Jan 2011, DRFC Ash wrote:

    I'll probably get shouted down for this, but here goes...

    It is sad that a child has died of swine flu. The mother has said that if she had been given the vaccine, she might have survived. This is true.

    However, the swine flu vaccine was available to all under 5's last year. Did this child receive the vaccine then, when it was available? If so, getting the same vaccine this year would have made no difference.

    If she did not receive the vaccine last year, when it was offered, then it is not the fault of the government, nor the health service.

    If your child is offered the vaccine, and you choose not to have your child vaccinated, you cannot then blame the government if your child then becomes ill, or worse.

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  • 26. At 08:47am on 13 Jan 2011, david wrote:

    Can all the "I've got a child therefore I'm an expert" respondants please advise:
    With finite NHS resources should these be spent to give the maximum beneficial outcome (e.g. lives saved)? Or by Twitter popularity. Which service should be cut to pay for the jabs? Sorry old people with colon cancer, we've spent your money on more popular things.
    The couple affected can't be expected to be impartial; of course they see in in terms of a few £ for their child, but what about the many £M it would cost to cover the population, and the effect on other parts of the NHS. I've no idea whether roll-out of the vaccine is worthwhile, but its use should be decided by carful assessment, not voxpop.

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  • 27. At 09:01am on 13 Jan 2011, Hastings wrote:

    tinkerbelle wrote:

    I have no doubt in my mind that ALL under-fives should receive the vaccine. At risk or otherwise healthy. Why gamble with children's lives?

    #######

    As the blog above said, last year when children under 5 were offered the vaccine, there was only 23% take up - and that was when the news about swine flue was much higher profile than it was this year.

    I agree that the flu jab should have been offered this year - but you cant force it on people.

    Even this year, there has been slow take up of the "at risk" groups because some are worried about what they see as a "combined" vaccine. (Many people still believe the MMR scare stories).

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  • 28. At 09:03am on 13 Jan 2011, Hastings wrote:

    DRFC Ash wrote:


    However, the swine flu vaccine was available to all under 5's last year. Did this child receive the vaccine then, when it was available? If so, getting the same vaccine this year would have made no difference.

    #####


    Actually, research is still ongoing into whether a repeat dose would have been necessary or not.

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  • 29. At 09:12am on 13 Jan 2011, Martin wrote:

    Everyone should be offered the vaccine. Everyone, regardless.

    In Canada it was compulsory for everybody to have the vaccine.

    "So any contradiction - if there is one at all - is not with ministers, but with the committee that recommends policy on immunisation." - So the government does listen to experts then...when it suits.

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  • 30. At 09:19am on 13 Jan 2011, DRFC Ash wrote:

    @Hastings.

    Fair point on the ongoing research, but I would be very interested to know whether she had the vaccine last year.

    If she did, then we have a problem: If a healthy child, who had previously received the vaccine dies of the strain the vaccine was meant to protect against, well, that would be horrific, because it would indicate that the vaccine is not effective. However, if she didn't get the vaccine, when offered, that falls down to the parents, and a lot of soul-searching on their part.

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  • 31. At 09:20am on 13 Jan 2011, Miss_Anthrope wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 32. At 09:29am on 13 Jan 2011, amazingHampshireHog wrote:

    The case highlighted is of course tragic and statistics are irrelevant if one of your loved ones dies, no matter how rare it may be in the wider population.

    However, I do wonder if some of the contributors on these blogs actually read the entries from FW. For example, last year when the swine flu jab was available to all under 5's only 23% had their parents take up the offer. I wonder how many of those screaming for the jab now took up the offer then, when swine flu was even more prevalent. For example, on post #2 the contributor would have had 2 of her children eligible for the jab last year, so why is she is so concerned now but not last year?

    Last year the government was criticised for wasting money on millions of unused vaccines, now they are criticised for not spending enough. Some of the posts on here are forgetting that rationing has and always will take place in the NHS. The flu jab has to be taken annually - making 60 million jabs available to the whole UK population every year would cost a lot of money and millions would go unused - can that cost be justified? Should there be unlimited spending on all illnesses and diseases, many of which cause far more deaths each year than flu? If you believe that is justified, would you be prepared to pay higher taxes or make deep cuts in other areas? Experience suggests that politicians propossing increased taxes don't get elected.

    How many of you smoke? Well, why not ban smoking totally - think of all the lives saved each year.

    I also notice that some of you defend private medicine. Fine, but consider this - even if we wanted to there isn't enough capacity to produce an annual flu vaccine for the 6.5 billion people on this planet. So even if there was a serious pandemic billions would not have access to a vaccine. Being a rich country we would be in a better position than most, but in such a scenario who should have greater priority - someone in a rich western country not in a risk group who can pay for a vaccine privately or someone in a risk group in a poor country who cannot afford to pay for the vaccine? I don't condemn those that put themselves and their familiies first, but we shouldn't forget that there are billions who will either have no access to or the ability to pay for a vaccine.

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  • 33. At 09:29am on 13 Jan 2011, Xellophon wrote:

    Why is vaccination offered by GPs? Why don't we use the US method where their health advisory body (ACIP) gives advice and the population make their own decision whether or not to get immunised at a Pharmacy?

    The cost is a few pounds to the individual but would save the NHS millions in drug costs and the time of GPs.

    I thought this government was going to give responsibility back to individuals?

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  • 34. At 09:46am on 13 Jan 2011, steve wrote:

    While I have every sympathy for the parents, on the breakfast news this morning they said that the take up of the vaccine last year by the under fives was very poor, and those who were vaccinated retained some immunity for this year.
    This leads me to think that the poor child wasn't vaccinated last year and even if vaccination had of been available this year, it probably wouldn't have been vaccinated.

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  • 35. At 09:49am on 13 Jan 2011, Michael wrote:

    @25 DRFC Ash

    You are not the only one thinking this. The 23% uptake last year is telling - would it have even reached that level this year without a 'pandemic' in the headlines?

    Yes it is a tragedy but I fell we are getting the 'sensationalist' side of the reporting without getting all the facts. I would rather the press criticised the govt for not following scientific advice than for following it. If the advice turns out to have been wrong it will be reviewed and the process can be improved. When the evidence is ignored and decision making becomes arbitrary that is when it is time to worry and criticise.

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  • 36. At 10:02am on 13 Jan 2011, alfsplace1986 wrote:

    I was listening to a report on the radio and the Dr they were speaking to said that the flu vaccine hasn't been tested properly for children and it is not realy known what dosage to give at different ages.

    Therefore we could be doing more damage to our children because of scaremongering and newspaper headlines.

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  • 37. At 10:02am on 13 Jan 2011, cyril phillips wrote:

    The health service is safe in our hands,so say the Tory party and their puppet partners.This remains to be seen ,but this safety doesn,t apply to children under 5yrs.Has the health minister received his flu jab? after all his he more important than a child ,I think not.

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  • 38. At 10:18am on 13 Jan 2011, stevedow wrote:

    Not surprising that pharmacies choose not to vacinate under 5s even when they have stocks and for payment. How long does it take to get an under 5 to accept a jab, 15 mins of cajoling and reassurance, then screams and tantrums.
    After that, similar to MMR, any completely irrelevant side effect, and the mother will be back screaming and threatening to sue. Unless the pharmacy were allowed to charge a lot more for under 5's they would run at a loss.
    Mothers only have themselves to blame. You can't have your cake and eat it, sometimes your little baby is going to suffer, accept that as a fact.

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  • 39. At 10:31am on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    I bet the people who are hysteric and paranoid over swine flu still eat fast food, sugar, smoke, exercise poorly, eat meat, eat low amounts of fruit and veg. These have far more far-reaching health implications than a little bit of swine flu. What's more, Doctors and so called health experts no little, if anything, about nutrition and optimal health. They get you to follow a 'balanced diet', knowing too well this will give you average health and acute illness allowing drug companies and themselves to benefit.

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  • 40. At 10:37am on 13 Jan 2011, Jayne wrote:

    I agree with 25, we surely have to take responsibility for ourselves and our children and some point we cannot keep on trying to blame others for our irresponsibility.

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  • 41. At 10:37am on 13 Jan 2011, amazingHampshireHog wrote:

    Expect more scaremongering later today when the updated figures for deaths and those in intensive care are released.

    An then expect silence about the thousands of children dying everyday in poor countries from preventable diseases and starvation.

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  • 42. At 10:39am on 13 Jan 2011, timnewberry wrote:

    If thee government last year offered vaccine to children under five, and the child who died was three years old, then why had she not received the vaccine last year ? Would not this have protected her this year ?

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  • 43. At 10:53am on 13 Jan 2011, SR4Z wrote:

    It's just typical NHS inefficiency and red tape. Every parent in the country should get a letter saying either:

    (1) your child is elegible for a free vaccination, or
    (2) your child is not elegible but here is a prescription you can take to your local pharmacist for a paid vaccination if you so wish, or
    (3) vaccination is unsuitable for your child because of an existing medical condition

    My private-sector jab cost just £8. What parent would grudge that?

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  • 44. At 10:57am on 13 Jan 2011, iph888 wrote:

    For all of you suggesting the low take up on swine flu jabs for under 5's last year means we shouldn't be offered it again this year I would like to enlighten you on the proceedure to do this in our area.
    Firstly we had to make contact with the surgery ourselves as no notification was sent to us. We were advised it was too early to book an appointment but that we would receive notification once it was possible to.
    A little over a month passed & we were in the surgery again for another reason & mentionned it again. We were then told that the jabs had all been done & we should have been told & made an appointment.
    We asked to book this asap & were given no choice on date or time. When we tried to get it done we were advised that as our daughter was ill at the time of the appointment we should reschedule. We did & this new appointment was also within the time she had the same illness (it was within a week of the first appointment) so we had to reschedule again. We did this but were then given an appointment a month later as the jabs were near the end of their distribution.
    I would like to add that our appointments would all have been in the middle of normal meal times - with the fact that the surgery always runs late.
    Again on the alloted date our daughter had another illness (she had only recently started nursery hence the repeated illnesses) & we could not make that. We were therefore then told that despite our protestations she could not now have the jab at all.
    I fully appreciate that the fact our daughter didn't get the jab in the end may have been unfortunate circumstances. What I would hope could be understood from this however is that, given how determined we were to get this done, the low take up should be no surprise. If people weren't offered this at all, then had trouble making the pre-apointed slot & finally if they could not have the jab at the pre-allotted time were put off having it at all or at best only given another appointment grudingly then what should we expect?
    To contrast this my wife & I both got the flu & swine flu jabs as we both come into at risk groups. Neither of us would have been anywhere near as determined with our own jabs as we were with our daughters but it was made so much easier for us to be notified & visit the surgery than it was for our daughter.
    I am not going to demand that a swine flu jab be given to my daughter on the NHS this year as I assume someone somewhere has done the maths and worked out it is not finacially viable given the level of risk (harsh but a measure of capitalisim which is my prefered political system so I have to live with it). What I would like to say is either make the swine flu jab actually available on the NHS, or find some way of relaxing restrictions on private clinics offering this for a fee. At the moment we are stuck in limbo where it isn't available either way and parents have no real choice but to let the child go without.

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  • 45. At 10:59am on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    24. At 08:42am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    Thats libellous. Thalidomide is a 60 year old drug. People like you can't find anything more recent because the regulatory bodies stepped up the testing regime to the point where if you invented it today penicillin would be rejected as unsafe.

    The reason the flu vaccine was 2 months late last year was because of the trials it was going through. Its neither 100% safe, nor 100% effective but it makes a big difference. Its because of vaccination that diseases like smallpox are extinct and polio virtually extinct.
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    50 people,have died out of 63 million. Meanwhile 100s die in road carnage, thousands of obesity. And you can't trust the government of doctors on the latter - they know nothing about nutrition and exercise.

    And why the drama - just because it's on the front page of a newspaper? Let's all walk around in crash helmets just in case eh?

    Prescription drugs are one of the biggest killers in the Western world.The drug companies that are doing the health research are the ones that profit from you being ill.

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  • 46. At 11:00am on 13 Jan 2011, Ian wrote:

    Surely the heading should be:

    Fergus' Medical Files

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/skillswise/words/grammar/punctuation/apostrophes/

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  • 47. At 11:04am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    36. At 10:02am on 13 Jan 2011, alfsplace1986 wrote:
    I was listening to a report on the radio and the Dr they were speaking to said that the flu vaccine hasn't been tested properly for children and it is not realy known what dosage to give at different ages.

    Therefore we could be doing more damage to our children because of scaremongering and newspaper headlines.
    _______________________________________________________

    Not really... this specific flu vaccine hasn't had full clinical trials on children (for many reasons, partially ethical- children can't consent, partially time based... if full trials were done on flu vaccines the pandemic would be over before the vaccine was cleared, plus unlike lab rats you can't immunise a patient and then deliberately attempt to infect them with the virus so success is judged by comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated and making sure the vaccinated group have far fewer cases of flu) HOWEVER the actual formulation contains nothing weird... the preservatives, adjuvants etc are the same as used in most other vaccines. They have been full safety tested. Toxicity tests test substances at 100x + normal dose to look for side effects so a child getting a slightly higher than ideal dose is not likely to be at any greater risk. The main worry is that the vaccine may not provide full protection as it does in adults. There's some evidence that flu vaccines don't work in the under 2's as their immune system doesn't process it properly.

    Its worth remembering too however that ALL medicines can cause rare and severe side effects in people: 1 in 1000 will have a very bad reaction to penicillin, but this needs to be considered in context. More people die from peanuts than get seriously ill from vaccines.

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  • 48. At 11:06am on 13 Jan 2011, Tommy wrote:

    Is it not the case that the risks of administering a jab to 3 million children is higher than the risks of not doing so? Every jab has a low associated risk, one that in this case is probably higher than the risk of dying of flu.

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  • 49. At 11:13am on 13 Jan 2011, Pizik wrote:

    I can't help wondering if this unlucky child was vaccinated last year when all under-5s were encouraged to be vaccinated.

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  • 50. At 11:15am on 13 Jan 2011, fairsociety wrote:

    H1N1 vaccination does not confer 100% protection.

    the majority of all childhood vaccinations will protect just over 90% of the vaccinated population only.
    from what i remember from last year, the efficacy of the H1N1 vaccination was about 80%.

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  • 51. At 11:31am on 13 Jan 2011, angelscomeinthrees wrote:

    This is so sad and I find the picture of the beautiful little girl on this blog terribly upsetting. I feel so much for her family and send them my condolences.

    I really am struggling to find what I want to say. I'm not convinced that offering the flu jab to all children under five would have got a great deal of response until the panic in the media started. My son was under five during the pandemic flu vaccination period and we didn't get him vaccinated because he was too ill with recurrent ear infections. This is a big problem with trying to get children vaccinated during the winter; they are very often too unwell to actually have the jab.

    I'm very much in two minds as to whether penny pinching is to blame; on the one hand it does look like this is based on clinical evidence, but on the other to what extent were the experts made aware that limiting availablity would be desirable? Incidentally, I can't help remembering that costs involved includes payments per vaccination to GPs, who last year hung back from vaccinating children until they re-negotiated a 'better deal' than that they got for 'at risk' patients.

    Also last year I remember the NI authorities explaining how paying for swine flu had meant the ending of funding elsewhere, including cancer care. We can't pretend that universal vaccination at the start of the flu season for all at risk patients, the under fives and the over-65s is either practical or affordable, and finding a mechanism whereby parents can obtain vaccines for their children at a reasonable cost and administered by well-trained people has to be the answer. Clinics in schools can only provide some of the answer as we are talking about under-fives; clinics at private nurseries and pre-schools will probably catch most but not all children.

    My final thought on this is that the media do not move in to exploit another grieving family in the way that they have that of Jo Yeates. This is real life, not EastEnders and grief is not for our entertainment.

    # 3 Ashish, I appreciate that different schools have different rules but by law you do not have to send your child to school until the term after they turn five and no school can force you to do otherwise. If you feel happier keeping your little one at home for an extra month or two you are perfectly entitled to do so.

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  • 52. At 11:32am on 13 Jan 2011, claire_the_villa_fan wrote:

    My heart goes out to this family and everyone else in this situation. It is heart breaking and appalling, this death was preventable. It is probably too late for any policy change to make a difference this year, but I agree with GetaPerspective - what was going to happen to the 12.7 million doses of swine flu vaccine? My son was vaccinated last January when it was being offered to under fives. I think it should have been offered to all children, particularly under fives, during the summer. it could have been rolled out gradually, with no need for last minutes panic. This would have helped everyone, because it would have helped to slow down the spread of this virus. I objected to the idea that somehow so called healthy people should not be getting themselves vaccinated at the supermarket. I think the swine flu is a genuine risk to all heatlthy people aswell as at-risk groups, albeit a small risk. I think it is appalling that people are allowed to do when there was a vaccine sat there unused, that could have saved lives. I think the government and the health service need to provide proper answers, not fob people off and definitely need to change the policy for future use. I also think all supermarkets should offer the vaccine to everyone regardless of age, as the vaccine is suitable and many people would be glad to have the opportunity. Surely this frees the NHS up to concentrate on the at-risk groups?

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  • 53. At 11:37am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    48. At 11:06am on 13 Jan 2011, Tommy wrote:
    Is it not the case that the risks of administering a jab to 3 million children is higher than the risks of not doing so? Every jab has a low associated risk, one that in this case is probably higher than the risk of dying of flu.
    ____________________________
    No its not the case. Plus you're not comparing equivalent risk: the chance of DYING from the vaccine is miniscule. I haven't heard of a single UK death caused by the vaccine yet, but plenty have died of the virus. The usual side effect is a very sore arm and some flu like symptoms.


    The Glaxo vaccine is made in eggs so if you have a serious egg allergy you should avoid that one. Swine Flu isn't that severe in most people but a close relative in 1918 killed more people than WW1 so any potential mutation totally changes the risk analysis. In addition a bad dose of swine flu may not kill you but it leaves you vunerable to a host of bacterial infections that might well do, plus any serious viral infection can cause weird and unpleasant side effects. Meningitis can be caused by influenza virus... its not as deadly as the bacterial form but can still do lasting brain damage.

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  • 54. At 11:38am on 13 Jan 2011, angelscomeinthrees wrote:

    As post #44 says, I haven't been able to get my children vaccinated due to them already being ill. A campaign for vaccinating young children would need to be done at some point around the end of summer, maybe even before the return to school.

    #50 I do agree with your point to some extent. It is possible that the outcome for anyone who dies with sf would have still died had they been vaccinated. But then again if she had been vaccinated, this little girl would have had an 80% better chance.

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  • 55. At 11:40am on 13 Jan 2011, DRFC Ash wrote:

    46. At 11:00am on 13 Jan 2011, Ian wrote:

    Surely the heading should be:

    Fergus' Medical Files
    ____________________________

    Come on.. try to stay on topic will you?

    But for your information, whether the extra letter s is used really depends upon why it is spoken. In this case, the extra 's' is correct.

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  • 56. At 11:44am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    45. At 10:59am on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:
    "50 people,have died out of 63 million. Meanwhile 100s die in road carnage, thousands of obesity. And you can't trust the government of doctors on the latter - they know nothing about nutrition and exercise."
    _________________________________________________________________
    About 50 people died on 7/7. Do you suggest we do absolutely nothing about that because more people die of being overweight? Your argument is a complete fallacy.

    In any case being 3 year old Lana Ameen didn't smoke, didn't drink and doesn't look obese. If your claims are correct why did she die? Equally if its all poor diet and drugs killing us off why are we living longer than ever? No junk food or vaccinations 100 years ago and people died like flies from smallpox, polio & diptheria in the UK.

    Incidentally, please indulge me. What are YOUR medical or nutritional qualifications? I've a BSc in Genetics, an MSc in clinical biochemistry and I've worked in cancer research for nearly 15 years. I even took the pretty photo of 2 colo-rectal tumour cells dividing on this article:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/3151984.stm

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  • 57. At 11:50am on 13 Jan 2011, angelscomeinthrees wrote:

    Just a final thought: I was under the impression that the left-over stocks of pandemic vaccine were going to be offered to developing countries. I had no idea that we even had any left and would have enquired about getting my son vaccinated in late spring had I known. But I am assuming that GPs has stopped vaccinating by then? Would they have been allowed to use it after a certain cut-off point?

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  • 58. At 11:57am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    50. At 11:15am on 13 Jan 2011, fairsociety wrote:
    H1N1 vaccination does not confer 100% protection.

    the majority of all childhood vaccinations will protect just over 90% of the vaccinated population only.
    from what i remember from last year, the efficacy of the H1N1 vaccination was about 80%.
    ___________________________________
    Technically that sounds about right but it really depends on what definition of 'efficacy' you use. The vaccine may not make you 100% resistant to the flu so that you don't get ill at all, but it may well provide some protection so that you get a less severe infection and fight it off quicker.

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  • 59. At 11:57am on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    55. At 11:40am on 13 Jan 2011, DRFC Ash wrote:

    46. At 11:00am on 13 Jan 2011, Ian wrote:

    Surely the heading should be:

    Fergus' Medical Files
    ____________________________

    Come on.. try to stay on topic will you?

    But for your information, whether the extra letter s is used really depends upon why it is spoken. In this case, the extra 's' is correct.

    ____________________________

    Yes the extra 's' is correct. The misuse has caused some deaths, but that was another sensational headline.

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  • 60. At 12:11pm on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    56. At 11:44am on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    45. At 10:59am on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:
    "50 people,have died out of 63 million. Meanwhile 100s die in road carnage, thousands of obesity. And you can't trust the government of doctors on the latter - they know nothing about nutrition and exercise."
    _________________________________________________________________
    About 50 people died on 7/7. Do you suggest we do absolutely nothing about that because more people die of being overweight? Your argument is a complete fallacy.

    In any case being 3 year old Lana Ameen didn't smoke, didn't drink and doesn't look obese. If your claims are correct why did she die? Equally if its all poor diet and drugs killing us off why are we living longer than ever? No junk food or vaccinations 100 years ago and people died like flies from smallpox, polio & diptheria in the UK.

    Incidentally, please indulge me. What are YOUR medical or nutritional qualifications? I've a BSc in Genetics, an MSc in clinical biochemistry and I've worked in cancer research for nearly 15 years. I even took the pretty photo of 2 colo-rectal tumour cells dividing on this article:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/3151984.stm

    _________________________________________________________________


    Being such an 'expert' you must be a physical role model with optimal health?



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  • 61. At 12:24pm on 13 Jan 2011, CeeJayUU wrote:

    The whole question of seasonal vaccinations needs looking at by a properly constituted independent body. The major points which need to be addressed appear to be:

    1. Vaccination of all children including the under 5s. The idea that one government includes the under 5s in the list of receipients and the following changed government does not, is political thinking gone mad. The current government cannot hide behind the "expert guidance" arguement because they, the government, appear to have accepted the guidance without proper consideration, other than possibly on cost grounds.
    2. The so called shortage of vaccine appears to be a publicity stunt brought about by GPs who have failed to order sufficient vaccine in order to keep their drug bills as small as possible. The spokesman for the drug companies stated a few days ago (refer to various BBC news programmes) that there was plenty of vaccine and that this was being supplied as orders were received. The GPs will deny this but all the health professionals that I know agree this to be the case. GPs must start ordering sufficient stocks to allow the vaccination of all their patients who are at risk.
    3. It is not right that GPs refer patients to the local pharmacy to make up for the shortfall in the GPs own ordering responsibilities. Pharmacies are not part of the NHS at the choice of all governments since 1948. They are privately owned businesses that cannot be expected to carry every known medicine on their shelves "just in case". In respect of vaccines, "just in case" would not arise if the GPs undertook proper risk assessments of all their patients.

    As a secondary but very important point additional to 2 and 3 above, if the GPs run primary health care in the future in the way that they manage flu vaccine supplies, God help us all.

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  • 62. At 12:32pm on 13 Jan 2011, Flumonitor wrote:

    Well, here is a suggestion.

    Travel vaccines are not provided free of charge on the NHS, but must be paid for at the surgery.

    Why not allow concerned parents who have children without risk factors to go to their GP to receive an annual flu jab privately from their GP surgery, which they can pay the surgery for in the usual way aka travel vaccines.

    I think much of the problem and outcry this year has been that many parents have been refused a free vaccination at the surgery, and pharmacies will not provide these to children. However, the mechanisms already exist to simply put flu vaccination for healthy adults and children on a par with these 'elective' vaccines, and everyone is then satisfied. Surgeries would gain revenue that would more than cover their costs.

    I would also caution some individuals against taking official numbers of deaths too literally: even the HPA has said these will be an undercount. H1N1 will only be given as the cause of death when it has been specifically tested for (it isn't in every case i.e where another problem such as bacterial infection is easily identifiable why look any further?) - the true picture will only be revealed by excess mortality statistics, when these are released. Many people who die of secondary bacterial infection - a very common problem after flu, colds and other respiratory viral infections - will be recorded as pneumonia, septicaemia or multi organ failure as a result of a bacterial infection, or similar. If a pre-existing condition is exacerbated by the flu infection and causes death, then the certificate will very likely record the underlying problem.

    There will also be a time lag in reporting of deaths whilst the coroner investigates, but I have no idea how anyone could find out how many cases may be in the queue for investigation.



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  • 63. At 12:48pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    #60. Being such an 'expert' you must be a physical role model with optimal health?
    ______________________________________________________________

    I'm the correct BMI, don't smoke, swim twice a week, eat 'a balanced diet' and haven't had influenza since 1985 so yup, not bad. In fact I don't think I've ever visited the GP I'm registered with. Last time I needed a GP visit was about 6 years ago for some antibiotics for an ear infection (probably caught swimming)

    I'll take your failure to address any of the points I raised and instead attack my health status and 'expert' knowledge as an admission that you can't back up any of your wild claims with any evidence....or have any formal scientific education.

    Humans are evolutionarily designed to eat pretty much anything, including meat. Our teeth are not up to grinding plants and our iron transfer mechanisms work far better with iron from red meat than from plants. The idea that 'eating meat is far more serious a risk to your health than a small dose of swine flu' is completely without scientific basis.

    The fact that recent flu epidemics have caused far less deaths than in the past (when people ate far less meat, had more vegetables, were thinner, drank less and excercised more) but lacked modern medicine is something you seem very keen to avoid considering. The death toll from Spanish flu would have been a fraction of what it was if the patients had access to simple penicillin to deal with the secondary infections.

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  • 64. At 12:50pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    #61 I quite agree: Scotland doesn't have a vaccine shortage because in Scotland pharmacies anticipate what the GP's will need and order it in. In England GP's order in their own stock. The fact that Scotland has more than it needs rather suggests that there isn't a shortage and that pharmacists are far more capable of calculating drugs stocks than GPs. As they are private businesses its their problem if they over-order, not the NHS's too.

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  • 65. At 12:53pm on 13 Jan 2011, SpeakerToAnimals wrote:

    >>Everyone should be offered the vaccine. Everyone, regardless.

    Except we can't determine health policy in that way -- we have limited funds, and limited resources, and unless we can show that spending both vaccinating everyone will save more lives than not, then we are in effect making a decision to NOT save lives.

    On an individual level, of course every parent and family member thinks that everything possible should have been done to protect their loved one, but that isn't the way to determine health policy and our response to new flu strains. At the end of the day, its boring ole statistics and epidemiology, not emotion and who shouts loudest that we should listen to. Unpopular, but the best and fairest way we have of making such choices in the long run.

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  • 66. At 1:01pm on 13 Jan 2011, claire_the_villa_fan wrote:

    I was just looking back at the comments from 12 months ago, when the government was wondering what to do with all the left over swine flu vaccines!! Isn't it obvious that they should have offered it to as many people as possible over the summer months?? All the experts said last winter that swine flu would come back this year and it has. It seems like common sense to me that it should have been used and more manufactured if necessary. Apparently the swine flu vaccine is considered to be even more effective at preventing the H1N1 virus than the combined version being offered this winter. Therefore it seems criminal not to have offered it earlier on, especially when you consider how much the country spent on stockpiling it in the first place. i don't always say this, but the USA seems to have a much better approach to this problem. The vaccine is also much more widely available in Australia. Let's face it, this is all about resources! If the NHS is struggling to cope, they should welcome the fact that pharmacies are also able to offer this service. Rather than make a law banning supermarkets offering the flu jabs, as was mentioned yesterday, this service should be extended. Make it available to all who want it, then the whole country is better protected and less vulnerable people will be exposed to the virus anyway.

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  • 67. At 1:21pm on 13 Jan 2011, LIz wrote:

    My heart goes out to the family whose child has died. My heart also goes out to my friend whose daughter was damaged by a different vaccine, a family I know whose daughter was damaged by measles encephalitis because they didnt have her vaccinated because of the friend whose daughter was damaged.

    The decision makers cant win. If they vaccinate in schools and thus vaccinate most children, and something happens to one or a very few children, the parents and media will probably blame the vaccine; that blame will remain in peoples minds even if/when it has been shown that the vaccine didnt cause whatever happened. And decision makers will be vilified.

    If they dont give the vaccine and a child dies, as this little girl did, the parents and media will vilify the decision makers as well. And as someone said in an earlier comment - did this little girl have the vaccine last year?

    There are no easy answers to this.

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  • 68. At 1:25pm on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    3. At 12:48pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    #60. Being such an 'expert' you must be a physical role model with optimal health?
    ______________________________________________________________

    Humans are evolutionarily designed to eat pretty much anything, including meat. Our teeth are not up to grinding plants and our iron transfer mechanisms work far better with iron from red meat than from plants. The idea that 'eating meat is far more serious a risk to your health than a small dose of swine flu' is completely without scientific basis.
    ______________________________________________________________


    I don't have to address any of your points as the statement on meat says it all. So I won't be adding anymore.




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  • 69. At 1:30pm on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    http://www.naturalnews.com/029934_doctors_nutrition.html


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  • 70. At 1:35pm on 13 Jan 2011, corum-populo-2010 wrote:

    The Health Minister, Andrew Lansley, had his flu vaccination as he was in an 'at risk' group due to his stroke in the 90s? (this info' is in the public domain).

    Currently there is an overload on HDUs in many hospitals caused by flu. Myself and my daughter working in the health service had to demand the flu vaccine. Of course, it depends where full-time NHS employees work.

    Unfortunately, Bank Staff, working in NHS hospitals are not required to be vaccinated against flu, or other virulent viruses, or TB. Yet these Bank or Agency staff are working freely and closely with vulnerable patients, including those with immunity problems and those under going chemotherapy in hospital or at home.

    Health care worker employment agencies are NOT regulated as regards to the health and vaccination history of their employees who are employed to care for the most vulnerable. This issue has been unregulated for too long.

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  • 71. At 1:42pm on 13 Jan 2011, limitedresources wrote:

    No, diddlysquat.

    "To those making the decisions (including the Government) a "few" deaths are acceptable.........but not to us. "

    A few deaths are not only acceptable, they are unavoidable. The only question is which deaths do you allow and which deaths do you try to prevent. If money from the limited pot funding the health system is moved to do this vaccination then you are killing someone somewhere else. Tell us who that should be.

    There are not, cannot and never will be unlimited funds for health care (or policing, or education, or anything else) and it is misguided and dangerous to encourage people to do so or to attempt to make any decisions using that as an assumption.

    LR

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  • 72. At 1:46pm on 13 Jan 2011, JaneC wrote:

    My sympathies and thoughts are extended to Lana's family. My mother passed away 02/01/2011. She was a healthy 74 year old. She died from complications arising from swine flu (bronchial pneumonia. However, she had been immunised against both of these so the vaccination should not be viewed as infallible.In my mothers case it proved no use at all.Whilst I appreciate the statistics presented it would be interesting to know the mortality rates from complications arising from flu, and the efficacy of the vaccines offered. However, as mother of six, I am very much undecided.

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  • 73. At 1:49pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    Hi Mike,

    Transferrin: a protein you've probably never heard about takes iron from the stomach into the blood. Favours Fe2+ ions found in meat: eat iron in the form of meat you absorb at least 25% of what you eat. Eat Fe3+ ions ins spinach etc you'll absorb a tiny fraction of that (although washing the spinach down with a glass of orange juice turns the Fe3+ into 2+ and greatly aids iron uptake) Any GP will tell you that but you know far more than them about nutrition apparently......

    Equally our dentistry: animals designed to eat huge quantities of plant material have far thicker enamel on their teeth and in many cases grow fresh teeth. We don't. We have thin enamel, and a mix of molars for grinding plants and incisors and canines for ripping meat. Just like our closest relatives the chimp which also eats plants & meat.

    Which country suffered by far the largest death toll from flu in 1918? Indian. A country where the majority of the people are Hindu and vegetarian.

    You can choose to ignore or disbelieve any of this if you like.. its a free country but I suspect the rest of the board may start questing your other scientific claims.

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  • 74. At 1:52pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    #69. WOW! An "alternative health" website says conventional medicine is wrong..... thats strong evidence. No chance of bias there. Did the 'Dr' get his doctorate from the same on-line college 'Doctor' Gillian McKeith bought hers from?

    Of course as with 'homeopathy' and other snake oils the fact that there's no requirement for trials, safety testing or peer review does make it easier to make wild claims. Some people are fool enough to believe them

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  • 75. At 1:55pm on 13 Jan 2011, Rivergreen wrote:

    "Just 23% of healthy children under five were immunised last year."

    Not all children under 5 were actually offered the swine flu vaccine last year. My son was 4 last year and was never offered the vaccine. I asked our GP surgery about it and they said that they had decided not to vaccinate healthy children as they didn't think it was necessary.

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  • 76. At 2:02pm on 13 Jan 2011, SpeakerToAnimals wrote:

    >>Therefore it seems criminal not to have offered it earlier on, especially when you consider how much the country spent on stockpiling it in the first place.

    What do you mean? That we should have just said -- we'd better just use up all the stocks we have -- winter flu hasn't got going yet, but let's just use it up anyway? Except no one would have turned up (like the 75% of parents of under fives who didn't vacccinate even when the pandemic was still around). How much time and resources would that have wasted?

    Flu strains mutate anyway, so even in ordinary winter flu vaccines, what worked last year isn't the same as what they use this year.

    If we really wnated to use all the flu vaccine we had ordered, we should have just made vaccination mandatory, at least for all schoolchildren, all health workers, teachers etc -- except imagine the FUSS that would have caused!

    As long as it is voluntary, and as long as delivery systems have to lag behind, there will ALWAYS be the cry of -- why didn't we do this? Because it is always easy, after the fact, to say that, but not before. And even if you do make a good prediction, how many listen? They didn't during the pandemic...............

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  • 77. At 2:04pm on 13 Jan 2011, Dr Angus Walker wrote:

    I feel deep sympathy for the family and anyone suffering such a loss. However, I wonder why the parents did not get the little girl vaccinated last year when it was offered to her and all children. Did the family decide last year not to have her vaccinated, if so why are we to believe they would have taken the opportunity this year, were it to have been offered.

    Dr A Walker

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  • 78. At 2:09pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Whilst we await todays National Report from the HPA, results have come out from Northern Ireland in which it is stated that

    "the rate of increase in new confirmed cases is slowing" and

    "Our numbers are small and should not be over interpreted, but advice we have is that the current pattern of swine flu here is not different to that in other parts of the UK."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12180397

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  • 79. At 2:10pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Northern Ireland was the only part of the UK to still show an increase in rates last week.

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  • 80. At 2:13pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Interestingly, Scottish reports are not so good, showing a bigger increase in deaths. However, they were not hit as hard as England and Wales before Christmas.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12184084

    The report does not say whether the rate of hospital admissions which has almost doubled is slowing down or increasing.

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  • 81. At 2:15pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    We have to remember when examining the number of deaths that these poor people that lost their lives were often admitted several weeks beforehand and so there is a lag with regard to number of new cases.

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  • 82. At 2:15pm on 13 Jan 2011, islandacolyte wrote:

    Of course, my heart goes out to the parents of this little girl, what happened for her is a tragedy, simply awful. And I really do feel for them, I have a three year old, too, so it is 'close to home' for me. But I'm not sure we should be making public health policy based on what has happened. I am not an uncaring person, just realistic about limited NHS resources. Any money spent on an immunisation campaign for under 5s is money that cannot be spent on infertility treatment, cancer care, diabetes care, A&E etc. The pot is far from bottomless!

    Of course, it's too late for this year/'flu season, anyway; any decisions made now would become effective next autumn and I don't think we yet know what the dominant 'flu strains will be in 2011/12?

    If we do immunise under 5s on the NHS, it will cost a fortune and uptake will probably be low, anyway - it was least year, when the publicity and concern around swine'flu was huge.

    If the medical authorities issue new advice so that high street pharmacies feel able to offer jabs to under 5s, is that really any fairer - it means a child is protected only if his or her parents are willing and able to pay? Although at least this is an affordable option for most people, with 'flu jabs available for less than £10 on the high street - to adults only, at the moment I think. I reckon most of us would pay the cost of a bottle of decent wine or thereabouts to get our child protected.

    Finally, I'd like to say how fed-up I am with the hoohah around when a 'previously healthy' person dies from swine 'flu, rather as though someone at higher risk is okay to have died from it, as though they matter less. This is not a very nice attitude but it seems hugely prevalent in the media. Most people with long-term health conditions like astma and diabetes are not 'crocks', they are not on the edge of death permanently and they are not a drain on society compared to others. I have had devastating asthma since I was a toddler and have to take some pretty heavy medication every day to counter it, medication which has undesirable side effects and will probably shorten my life, one way or another. But I don't sit at home contemplating my grave!
    I have been to university, worked as a nurse, as an HR officer and an NHS manager, had a family and I do substantial voluntary work as a school governor and as a Church of England minister. My life is busy, useful and purposeful. So please, please media types, stop talking as though folk with long-term health problems are expendable! We are not, we have the same rights and human dignity as the next person. It is deeply sad when anyone dies from 'flu, whether a cute toddler or a diabetic of 40.

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  • 83. At 2:24pm on 13 Jan 2011, angelscomeinthrees wrote:

    # 71 I am afraid I agree with you, however unfair and unpleasant it seems.

    The problem is that we are no longer talking about 'a few deaths', we are talking about Lana's death, the death of a beautiful little girl whose family loved her. We can put a face to a name and can even see pictures of her suffering, suffering that may well have been avoidable. Inevitably that makes a difference to how we feel.

    But the stark truth is that under the current system vaccinating under fives on the NHS would have diverted funds from elsewhere. Funds that would have also saved lives and are saving lives.

    Given that only 23% of parents took up the initial vaccine and the NHS was landed with loads of 'left overs', it is hard to see how they could have risked ordering enough seasonal vaccine to cover even 80% of under fives.

    And I wonder if it would have been possible to get the pandemic vaccine over the summer had GPs not asked so extra for vaccinating children.

    It is time to acknowledge that expecting the NHS to provide most things that we want for free at point of use is no longer sustainable and that it is both sensible and ethical to charge for certain services, such as flu vaccination for healthy people.

    That said, I'm not looking for this to happen any time soon. We are so wedded to a 'free' NHS that there will be huge resistance to change.

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  • 84. At 2:26pm on 13 Jan 2011, Ken Sinden wrote:

    There is a very promising treatment for influenza under development in the USA. It is a simple injection of a new drug which interferes with the ability of the virus to lock on to cells. The US Government has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the development which is currently in Phase 3 trials.

    Japanese and Korean companies have taken up licences and obtained licences for local use.

    It should be quite possible for this treatment to be given in the UK and based on preliminary results it would save many lives and reduce hospital residence time. Is no-0nw interested in using this treatment even on an experimental basis under special licence?

    The drug is called Peramvir and the developers are BioCryst Corp, and established US company which uses advanced molecular modelling to understand disease mechanisms. They also have other promising drugs under development.

    I have no relationship with BioCryst, I just follow their press releases.

    Ken Sinden.

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  • 85. At 2:31pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    A little bit of further detail on the Scottish figures from one of the Scottish newspapers:

    "The rate of GP consultations for flu-like illness across Scotland rose slightly last week to 55.8 per 100,000, compared with 52.2 per 100,000 the previous week."

    It was also 55.8 the week before that so not only is it still a much lower percentage than in England and Wales, but it only rose slightly this week, despite the number of deaths and hospital cases.

    This is interesting, perhaps Scotland were hit harder the first time around? Meanwhile NI who were hit hardest over the past few weeks seem to be decreasing their rate of new cases.

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  • 86. At 2:39pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    80. At 2:13pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:
    Interestingly, Scottish reports are not so good, showing a bigger increase in deaths. However, they were not hit as hard as England and Wales before Christmas.
    ___________________________
    Having grown up in Glasgow this, sadly, is probably due to the lower level of health among many Scots. My father (cancer specialist) had some patients who in addition to their cancer's had beri-beri and scurvy! Life expectancy for men in the East End of Glasgow is lower than for men in Nairobi.

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  • 87. At 2:47pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Its out:
    http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1287147913271

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  • 88. At 2:50pm on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    82. At 2:15pm on 13 Jan 2011, islandacolyte wrote: 'previously healthy' person dies from swine 'flu.

    _____________________________________________________________

    This is to sell more papers.

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  • 89. At 2:53pm on 13 Jan 2011, Sophsky wrote:

    All the parents complaining about this clearly don't care about their children enough to find out that you can get the jab for around 20pounds from Boots and most supermarkets. Why should we waste tax money on vaccinating all children from something with an extremely low mortality rate when it's available with your shopping.

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  • 90. At 2:53pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Small increases... looking at page 6 of the HPA graphs, this is normal for the back to school week, every year shows a similar sized blip like this for this week, lets now hope that next week will show a similar decline as other years have.

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  • 91. At 2:59pm on 13 Jan 2011, angelscomeinthrees wrote:

    #82, Islanda, I agree very much with your comments about the coverage given to 'at risk' people as opposed to 'healthy'.

    The reason is simply that people are frightened, and deaths amongst 'at risk' people means that everything is okay, because it is happening to 'them' and not 'us'. And maybe there's even a hint of 'at risk' people being to blame in some way, if they are overweight or smoke, or have a drug habit, or even come from poor backgrounds. The same thing happens in the wider coverage of AIDS, famine, water shortages...even this week, I've been watching pictures of the floods in Australia (a bit like 'us'), totally unaware of the flooding in Brazil.

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  • 92. At 3:02pm on 13 Jan 2011, helen wrote:

    My daughter was under 5 last year and had the swine flu vaccine after Christmas 2009. Nevertheless, all over this Christmas she suffered very badly from what the doctor diagnosed as flu (saying he had not seen any difference between swine flu or other varieties). Whether it was swine flu or not we are, of course, unlikely to find out. In any case, I believe that immunity offered by the flu vaccine is short-lived; that's one of the reasons that it is given to at-risk groups annually. My sons took part in the swine flu vaccine trials last year and again this year. One of the purposes this year was to discover how much immunity remained from last year's vaccination.

    My point is that even if the poor little girl who died was vaccinated last year, she need not have been immune by this year's onslaught. I have not read anywhere whether she was vaccinated or not previously but what are people doing blaming her parents for not having it done when, as far as I know, it is not known whether they did? In either case, she could have fallen ill this year anyway, as my own experience testifies.

    The debate doesn't need to be so personal. The parents did their best and yet have lost their daughter. They don't need finger-pointing. The question should be whether it is worth offering vaccination to all children in order to save the odd healthy life. From the perspective of a parent, I say it is: all children deserve a chance when it is in our capabilities as a society to give them one.

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  • 93. At 3:07pm on 13 Jan 2011, scaredycat1 wrote:

    #87 questionsaplenty2

    what can we see from this latest reports....rates seem to have been hovering for a few weeks and are still below the peak.
    looks like a plateu of the rates.
    there is also information there showing that calls to NHS relating to flu have dropped and the percentage of tests for flu coming back positive have also dropped...

    could we see a decline in the next week or so and given that this latest report is already almost a week out of date are we over the worst?

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  • 94. At 3:10pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    This quote from the HPA is interesting:

    In the past week, the HPA has confirmed a further 62 deaths from flu across the UK, bringing the total number since the flu season began in October this year to 112. Most of these deaths did not occur in the past week - a substantial number of these 62 deaths occurred in December but due to the backlog over the seasonal holiday period they have only been confirmed this week.

    So those worry guts amongst us have to remember this when looking at these figures and also the lag in deaths following hospital admissions that I referred to earlier. People often sadly die after a couple of weeks in intensive care, not instantaneously.

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  • 95. At 3:12pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    #84. In the UK you could probably get a special licence to use a drug in phase III trials to treat a terminal cancer (based on the principle that not treating means certain death so highly adverse side effects are allowed) but not for flu. Phase I, II and III trials will all have been done on adults so if people are worried about ingredients in the swine flu vaccine that have passed all EU and US safety trials causing adverse reactions in kids they'll doubly worry about this.

    The cynic in me wonders how on earth a single injection could possibly deliver enough drug to block the actions of a rapidly multiplying virus. My first proper bit of bench science was trying to develop a vaccine for Newcastle Disease Virus (a very close relative of influenza which only infects poultry but is incredibly deadly to birds). It has an HN protein which combines the functions of the H & the N protein in flu. Thats the bit that binds to the cell membrane and which will be the drug target. I've also worked on antibody therapies to try and mop-up MRSA toxins before they destroy the lungs and that (at present) will require a drip bag to get enough of the antibody into the patient.

    These guys could be really onto something but most drugs fail at Phase III... getting past I & II is easy. Its Phase III and IV really prove if it works.

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  • 96. At 3:13pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    oops - just to clarify...I didn't mean to use the term "worry-guts" in a derogatory way - I'm including myself in that definition as I'm a health anxiety sufferer.

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  • 97. At 3:19pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    scaredy cat - from the graphs, I hope we are seeing the peak as we speak but I am no expert...just looking at graphs 6 and 7, if we following other years they start dropping off next week....fingers crossed!

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  • 98. At 3:21pm on 13 Jan 2011, Shamo75 wrote:

    Hi everyone,

    was hoping someone could give an idiots guide to this week's stats for England. Can we expect to see levels of Flu staying high throughout Jan and Feb? I understand the jump in deaths being due to a lag but it still un-nerves me to see such a big jump.

    Thanks in advance (no doubt Skyline will crunch the numbers for us)

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  • 99. At 3:27pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    92. At 3:02pm on 13 Jan 2011, helen wrote:
    My daughter was under 5 last year and had the swine flu vaccine after Christmas 2009. Nevertheless, all over this Christmas she suffered very badly from what the doctor diagnosed as flu (saying he had not seen any difference between swine flu or other varieties). Whether it was swine flu or not we are, of course, unlikely to find out. In any case, I believe that immunity offered by the flu vaccine is short-lived; that's one of the reasons that it is given to at-risk groups annually
    __________________________________________________________
    Seasonal flu is normally influenza type B which really only affects humans (and seals I seem to recall..... ) Swine Flu is from Type A influenza which also infects birds and can mutate much faster. The real killer epidemics in the past have all been Type A although type B can still kill, and leaves you weak so bacterial secondaries can be a real problem.

    Your doctor probably means that the symptoms of swine flu and Flu B are the same, and I'd agree. Swine Flu is a very mild Flu A. At a molecular level they're very different viruses though.

    Both Flu A & B mutate regularly. The main reason people get an annual flu vaccine is to protect against this years strain which is usually different from last years. No-one knows how long lasting the 'memory' of the swine flu vaccine lasts for (simply because there's no way of finding out experimentally) but generally vaccines give at least some protection for life.

    The last time I had proper full on influenza (as opposed to the sort of cold people call 'flu) was 1985 (I was about 8 and I caught it in mid-summer... its not just a winter illness). I still have a strong immune response to influenza A. Last year we took some of my blood, purified the white blood cells, exposed them to a peptide that comes from part of the swine flu virus and my cells started dividing like crazy and pumping out cytokines. That response is possibly 25 years old.

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  • 100. At 3:31pm on 13 Jan 2011, RosisifromOslo wrote:

    I live in Norway. Last year all the population were
    not only offered the Swine flu Vaccination, but we
    were encouraged to do so. First the at risks, then
    children and schools, the over 65s and after these were
    immunized ALL others were encouraged to get the jab.
    The thought being that with the population who had become
    immune through light illness, plus the those having the
    jabs, there would be less likely to be large pockets of
    susceptible individuals. We were charged a small amount
    for the jab. The Swine flu cases do not seem
    to be high in Norway this season. It seems to me that the
    Health Authorities in England have been rather stingy with
    offering immunization generally.
    Rosisi. Oslo

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  • 101. At 3:32pm on 13 Jan 2011, Alien Observers wrote:

    People are allowing themselves to become emotionally involved in this story as individuals. Nobody has had the brass to stand up and ask "What is good for the human race as a whole?" Putting the personal investment aside for a moment, has anyone considered;
    By artificially engineering vaccines to rapidly mutating strains of communicable diseases we as a species are influencing the evolution of one or more infectious organisms whilst counteracting the benefit of our own inherited genetics.
    By artificially adjusting the immunity of the human race, we alter the chance of a resistant strain occurring. By protecting the weak and vulnerable we perpetuate weak and vulnerable offspring.
    People are putting a lot of faith in a scientific community that believes the vaccines they are creating are safe. These are based on genetically modified material based on anticipated mutations - guesswork. Why is it people won't eat GM food, but they allow themselves to be injected with GM biological material? What if the scientists get it wrong and create a new strain of Influenza either directly or indirectly and introduce it either by accident or as a side effect?
    There was no vaccine the last time we had a spanish flu epidemic and the human race is still here in greater numbers. Maybe next time we will genetically engineer our own extinction.
    Perhaps we should put our faith in our own ability to naturally adapt and survive.

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  • 102. At 3:35pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Shamo - look at the HPA graphs, page 6 ...you will see a similar jump as we got this week for every influenza virus every year... if this follows other years it should start declining over the next week or two significantly... I think skyline also said he thought it would be over by the end of Jan which is in line with these graphs

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  • 103. At 3:36pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Graphs are shown: http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1284475036543

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  • 104. At 3:50pm on 13 Jan 2011, helen wrote:

    #89 Sophsky wrote: All the parents complaining about this clearly don't care about their children enough to find out that you can get the jab for around 20pounds from Boots and most supermarkets. Why should we waste tax money on vaccinating all children from something with an extremely low mortality rate when it's available with your shopping.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    No it's not Sophsky. Supermarkets and Boots don't offer it to under 18s. If you want your healthy children immunised, you must find a private clinic/doctor to do it for you. Perhaps then it is not so much that parents don't care as they don't have the means.

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  • 105. At 3:53pm on 13 Jan 2011, scaredycat1 wrote:

    The fact that the figures out for this week cover a 4 day week compared to the week before ( a 3 day week) and the figures havent increased substantially shows that last week less poeple were reporting to their GP each day than the week before.

    If we assume that this continued this week then rates should be dropping as we speak.
    Of course those in the know would already be aware of this if they were looking at the daily figures.

    sadly the HPA reports on figures that are 1-2 weeks out of date for some unknown reason.

    Given that todays figures cover 2nd-9th of january they are in part at least 11 days old. If daily rates had started to drop 11 days ago one would assume they would have dropped considerably at the time of writing this.

    adding into this the incubation period of the virus one could also say that those that were ill 11 days ago were infected upto 18 days ago, so todays figures give a virological snapshot dating back almost 3 weeks.

    This is all good news though right?

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  • 106. At 4:09pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    #101 Here's something for you to ponder: it comes courtesy of a very good biology teacher I had when I was 14 (Mr Forsyth if he's around).

    If you're flat footed, overweight and half blind you're easy prey for a lion. Not a good evolutionary idea to be half blind on an African plain. However if its 1914 and your short sight stops you being conscripted and slaughtered on the western front you get the pick of the ladies in your home town. 'Fittest' in 'Survival of the Fittest' may not be what you anticipate.

    Take your argument to its natural conclusions and we should also stop treating childhood cancers or giving antibiotics to treat disease. We can go back to Victorians times when we had ten kids to ensure 2 or 3 made it to adulthood. Its hard to see how huge rates of child hood mortality benefit anyone. Its a bit of a waste of time (and money) educating a kid till he's 15 or 16 then letting him die of a treatable illness.

    However your knowledge of vaccines is incorrect. The GM vaccines express a very small part of the flu vaccine. Its neither infectious, nor mutagenic. Creating a new strain of flu from a peptide is like creating a new car from a tyre... there's not enough bits to even think of doing it. People are scared of GM foods because of people like you using phrases like "Maybe next time we will genetically engineer our own extinction" not because of any scientific fact.

    In any case evolution has made a variety of human tissue types and each tissue type recognises different parts of an antigen. A few people are even naturally resistant to HIV and its probably why 10% survive Ebola. Variation is nature's best protection.

    I help develop therapeutic vaccines to treat late stage cancer and the problem we have is that each tissue type requires a completely different target. The most common tissue type in white europeans is HLA-A2 and thats only 40% of us so even if I do succeed in creating something 100% lethal I'll only take out 40% of Europe and the other 60% will survive as the 'fittest' (thats a joke BTW but the science is correct)

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  • 107. At 4:11pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter_Sym wrote:

    #89 Sophsky wrote: All the parents complaining about this clearly don't care about their children enough to find out that you can get the jab for around 20pounds from Boots and most supermarkets. Why should we waste tax money on vaccinating all children from something with an extremely low mortality rate when it's available with your shopping.
    ____________________________________________________________
    That appears to be based on the twisted logic that parents don't pay tax. You might want to price a 24 hour stay in intensive care: at least £10,000 a night. THAT is a waste of tax money when a vaccine costing a couple of quid (and far less had we got a bulk order negotiated last summer) could prevent it.

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  • 108. At 4:14pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    scaredycat - that is the way I am trying to look at it...I honestly dont think we are far away from a decline in the graph, looking at previous years and from what all the experts seem to be saying... also, its interesting to see the age groups that are showing the greatest increase this week are the over 16's rather than the children...perhaps this points to other flus being around or that the herd immunity from last time is kicking in... it looks like the increase in cases is due more to adults going back to work rather than schoolkids returning to school.

    It does also seem to be dropping off more in the South which was hit earliest.

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  • 109. At 4:18pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    I would love to be a fly on the wall in the hospitals ... they must be seeing daily admission rates and will know instantly and ahead of the rest of us if cases truly are now in decline (info we won't see until next week).

    Well I keep quizzing my kids...no noticeable numbers off in their schools though I heard one parent mention her younger child had it at the moment.

    I do wish the supermarkets would cover up all their bread and cakes though...I refuse to buy the unwrapped ones on display in the middle of the store where everybody has been coughing and sneezing in the vicinity...and as for the fruit...I dig deep to the bottom of the box!

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  • 110. At 4:33pm on 13 Jan 2011, scaredycat1 wrote:

    #108

    funny how 2 weeks ago the media was running the 'swine flu set to surge as schools return' story....
    Another case of scare-mongering.

    Perhaps the rise in over 16's has more to do with work skiving than you have previously thought?

    I think the fact that a far lower percentage of samples taken have tested positive and that calls to NHS have dropped shows that we are over the hill with this one.

    I do wish the daily rates were made public...at least on a rolling 3 day average to alleviate any blips on particular days.

    Interestingly this article shows that admissions and bed numbers are dropping which i guess is an excellent trend indicator...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-12182902

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  • 111. At 5:03pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    Scaredy cat - that link is excellent news and yes I agree - this is the information that gives us clues as to what is actually happening right now :)

    I think the herd immunity is preventing much of a surge in the school cases happening as they were the superspreaders last time and many will have had it before.

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  • 112. At 5:30pm on 13 Jan 2011, comeoncomeon wrote:

    I'm really confused over the issue of under 5s that were immunised last year. Some of the comments seem to suggest that it won't help protect my 5 year old and some seem to suggest that the flu hasn't mutated and so he is protected.
    I am one of the many worried parents who will be wondering the same thing.
    My little boy has no underlying health conditions but when I was offered the jab last year I did not hesitate.

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  • 113. At 5:59pm on 13 Jan 2011, Chris_in_Shropshire wrote:

    @ Peter Sym (#106, 99, 95, etc)
    Good to see some common sense and logic, and comprehensible explanations of the science - thank you.

    @ Mike (#88, 69, 68 etc)
    I agree with your thesis that much of what is peddled as 'news' is designed more to sell newspapers or boost ratings, and I also agree that nutrition is a vital aspect of health. However, IMO anyone with decent nutrition, and without an underlying medical problem affecting their digestive system, should not need to take the sort of 'supplements' that the website you linked to at #69 seems to promote. And I hope that, on reflection, you will agree that your comment at #68 is not a useful contribution to the discussion, unlike some of your other points.

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  • 114. At 6:13pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    REASSURING NEWS FROM RGCP WEBSITE

    Within the HPA report is a link to further information on the RGCP website. Right at the beginning, it says the following:

    The all age incidence of ILI reported this week was 108 (based on 4 normal working days) is only slightly more than last week (3 working days). Regional rates are similar. Age specific incidence has reduced in children, increased in age groups 15-44 & 45-64 and similar in age 65+. Rates of other respiratory infections are broadly similar to those reported last week. The figures indicate that this outbreak of influenza has peaked.

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  • 115. At 6:13pm on 13 Jan 2011, Peter wrote:

    It's well known that Swine Flu doesn't follow the pattern that previous flu strains usually have. The usual 'at risk' groups are those with pre-existing health problems and the elderly, but over 90% of the intensive care beds taken up by flu patients this year are occupied by the uder 65s.

    Swine Flu is known to target the young more than the elderly and is the dominant strain in cirulation, so why are the young being denied access to the vaccine whilst the elderly are offered it? It makes no sense to me - it smacks of a "that's the way we've always done it, so that's the way it is" attitude.

    Get with it - adapt the policy to fit the circumstances.

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  • 116. At 6:14pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    http://www.rcgp.org.uk/pdf/RCGP%20Weekly%20Report%20Wk%2001%20(2011).pdf

    sorry forgot to post link :)

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  • 117. At 6:14pm on 13 Jan 2011, eeyore wrote:

    61. At 12:24pm on 13 Jan 2011, CeeJayUU wrote:
    The whole question of seasonal vaccinations needs looking at by a properly constituted independent body. The major points which need to be addressed appear to be:

    1. Vaccination of all children including the under 5s. The idea that one government includes the under 5s in the list of receipients and the following changed government does not, is political thinking gone mad. The current government cannot hide behind the "expert guidance" arguement because they, the government, appear to have accepted the guidance without proper consideration, other than possibly on cost grounds.
    2. The so called shortage of vaccine appears to be a publicity stunt brought about by GPs who have failed to order sufficient vaccine in order to keep their drug bills as small as possible. The spokesman for the drug companies stated a few days ago (refer to various BBC news programmes) that there was plenty of vaccine and that this was being supplied as orders were received. The GPs will deny this but all the health professionals that I know agree this to be the case. GPs must start ordering sufficient stocks to allow the vaccination of all their patients who are at risk.
    3. It is not right that GPs refer patients to the local pharmacy to make up for the shortfall in the GPs own ordering responsibilities. Pharmacies are not part of the NHS at the choice of all governments since 1948. They are privately owned businesses that cannot be expected to carry every known medicine on their shelves "just in case". In respect of vaccines, "just in case" would not arise if the GPs undertook proper risk assessments of all their patients.

    _________________________________________________________________________

    I take issue with the statements above. Some fact checking appears to be lacking.

    As Fergus pointed out in the blog “But to be fair the government is following the advice of experts (opens pdf) on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI)” The JCVI is an independent body.

    Please see http://www.dh.gov.uk/ab/JCVI/DH_094786

    1. It is not a matter of cost. It is however a matter which requires continuing research as to the safety and efficacy of vaccines. No-one has a crystal ball in this area of complex epidemiology, planning and implementation.

    2. This statement is a slur on General Practice and shows how ill-informed the poster is. There is no evidence whatsoever of GPs colluding to shortfall on flu vaccination. Flu vaccination campaigns have been run by GPs since flu vaccines came on line many years ago. The computer systems that support General Practice have improved the planning of these campaigns over the last 20 years or so. Yes we do know from these systems those in our practice populations who are at risk at any given time, and the orders are based on previous year’s uptake and the current at risk groups. And yes we know how to do form letters. General Practice is a business which has to pay for the staff it employs as well as establishment costs. Flu vaccination does make some money which supports the Practice and helps pays for the services offered to patients. Drug budgets do and never have included vaccinations.

    3. It is right to say that pharmacies are independent contractors to the NHS just as GPs, Dentists and Opticians are. What is not right about giving a prescription for flu vaccine to a patient? Any shortfall this season is being caused by inappropriate demand for vaccine from those who have been panicked into inappropriate and ill advised action by the usual suspects in the media.

    Can I ask that Fergus starts looking at other area of health care, as he has done in the past? There have been many opportunities to help inform his readers on other topics. Who knows, his reporting and opinion could have spurred people to take action and helped save lives by highlighting other stories. Hopefully as the flu season slackens, normal service will reappear.

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  • 118. At 6:18pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    I would really like to know the numbers in intensive care as per the latest figures...unless I'm going blind, I cant see it in the HPA report to compare with previous weeks.

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  • 119. At 6:47pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12184395

    BBc just answered that for me - it has fallen from 783 to 661 - now that is a figure to celebrate!

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  • 120. At 6:54pm on 13 Jan 2011, eeyore wrote:

    69. At 1:30pm on 13 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    http://www.naturalnews.com/029934_doctors_nutrition.html

    I am at a loss. The link refers to a doctor speaking to the NEW YORK TIMES on the matter of nutrition teaching in the US medical schools curriculum.

    Then there is the matter of "Support NaturalNews sponsors:" who are selling the latest in flavours of snake oil, which is how the bulk of nutritional and supplement news websites hide their commercial status.

    Nutrition, especially childhood and geriatric, are core parts of GP postgraduate training in this country.

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  • 121. At 7:07pm on 13 Jan 2011, Questionsaplenty2 wrote:

    ...the decline I mean not that 661 people are still in intensive care

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  • 122. At 7:20pm on 13 Jan 2011, AlreadyHadIt wrote:

    @18. At 07:35am on 13 Jan 2011, Flumonitor wrote:

    "Firstly, my deepest sympathies to the family. Losing a child must be one of the hardest things to cope with in life."

    Mr. and Mrs. Ameen have all my sympathies. I know the coming child is in no way a replacement for little Lana, that's impossible, but I hope she is healthy and happy and that the family heals together as much as they can.
    To be just a little cynical, it is unlikely the new baby will have any difficulty finding a vaccination next Winter.

    @15. At 06:29am on 13 Jan 2011, Mark wrote:

    "The government only "follows" expert advice when it happens to coincide with their own agenda, which in this case is to save money."

    While that may be true, their ultimate aim is to be re-elected, being inhuman enough to deprive Lana's sister, or brother, of a free dose would seriously hamper their chances of achieving that goal. While the English accept that their rulers are luxury-hunting peculators, callousness is one of the few sins they can be guilty of which stir their voters to despise them.
    Killing children so MPs can buy duck-houses, HDTVs and porn DVDs on expense accounts would not soon be forgotten. Even the proven corrupt critters infesting the rotting sewer of Parliament would consider that rather inept.

    In the original article, the head of Immunisation at the Department of Health, Professor David Salisbury, is quoted as saying vaccinating everyone would distract nurses and doctors from other, more valuable work. That is at best disengenuous, at worst idiotic lunacy and complete ignorance of what the NHS *does*.
    Children are being vaccinated every day of the year. Offering their parents one more additional injection would delay *nothing*.
    "Want a flu jab with that?"
    "No." Two seconds wasted.
    "Yes, pease." Thirty seconds used in possibly saving a life.
    It could be done when any child visits any healthcare unit for any reason. Sure, sometimes they will be too ill to do it, but the point is that that Professor is an obvious academic with little or no experience of the real world, and the MPs taking his advice semingly have even less.
    No. That won't reach all children, but "herd immunity" counts, too, especially if the latest announcements in the popular press are accurate and swine flu confers immunity to all future flus.
    My deepest and most heartfelt sympathies go out to the Ameens, with my best wishes for their future new mamily member. I hope that those who made the decision to save a few pennies by risking our lives, especially the lives of those most precious, think well on their choices.
    The English will forgive selfishness, stupidity, cupidity, avariciousness and even massive theft, callous disregard for the saftey of our children is unforgivable.
    Especially when the Capitalist USA are protecting theirs.
    AHI.



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  • 123. At 7:46pm on 13 Jan 2011, Alien Observers wrote:

    @106 thankyou for your carefully considered response.
    Mr Forsyth had a valid point, however this is still an example of a man-made phenomenon (war) adversely affecting human evolution by artificially removing an arbitrarily selected sample of the population.

    Your second point about having large families to offset natural selection is equally misguided. In the animal world this is a legitimate way to ensure survival. However, what separates us from animals is our ability to control the number of our offspring. Overpopulation is more of a threat to us, even though we are top of the food chain, the resources of this planet are not limitless. Imagine a world where drinking water is more valuable than oil, then take 90% of the humans away. Problem solved.

    I'm not going to argue with you about the biology of vaccination but you have Mis-interpreted me, I wasn't suggesting the vaccine was infectious of mutagenic but that the side-effect of gm vaccination is as unpredictable as the success rate. There will always be a gamble, no matter how small but scientific theory is nothing without experimentation and scientists such as yourself are ignorantly using the human race as a giant Petri-dish.

    Lastly, survival of the fittest doesn't necessarily mean survival of the richest or most intelligent. Ever heard the phrase "the meek shall inherit the earth"?

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  • 124. At 8:19pm on 13 Jan 2011, helen wrote:

    #123 classwar
    I think there will be a great many people revolted by your comment that what separates us from animals is our ability to limit our offspring, because most of us (probably you included, at least in your thinking about your own place in the scheme of things) think there's more to each human being than that. Human ability to make life choices is down to consciousness: individual and collective. The individual matters as much as the collective. I doubt that you think you are expendable; I imagine you would fight tooth and nail to stay alive and protect your loved ones. I would. Over-population is a problem. But caring for your children is an immediate issue and undeniable urge. If you think that there is only you, your loved ones and then a population problem to be sorted by flu epidemics and the like you are thinking in simplistic, immature and inhuman terms.

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  • 125. At 8:53pm on 13 Jan 2011, Alien Observers wrote:

    Ha, that was a quote from Grease 2

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  • 126. At 9:02pm on 13 Jan 2011, Katherine_Solihull wrote:

    I would just like to add that I had my now 2 and a half year old vaccinated against swine flu last year. I was the only one in my close circle of mothers who did get their child vaccinated. Just before Christmas 2010 my mother-in-law looked after her for a weekend and was beginning to experience the first effects of swine flu when I came home, and she went on to be very ill. Fortunately my daughter did not even suffer as much as a runny nose.

    Furthermore, we all know the hazards of measles but how many people still don't get the MMR jab for their children, and look what is happening to the rate of increase in measles?

    I had tears in my eyes watching Lana's mother cope with her grief. But how can people scream at the Government to allow vaccines for all under 5's when they are not taking up the offer to vaccinate their children against other potentially deadly diseases, where the vaccine is readily available, and in the case of swine 'flu, was available last year?

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  • 127. At 9:09pm on 13 Jan 2011, Sophiengrm wrote:

    I find it horrifying that in 21st Century UK children can be dying from preventable diseases and I sympathise with this family. I hope their story changes policy. My under 5 was immunised last year but like mentioned in previous comments I've been unable to find out if it still protects him for this year. Despite ringing all over the county I've been unable to find any pharmacies to vaccinate myself and husband - thus limiting the risk to our children. Our 11 year old just has to take his chances!!

    We should demand to know how many Tory MPs and their children have had the jabs - I'm sure their GPs have conveniently found them a 'high risk' factor to entitle them to the jab. I'm surprised no newspapers have been on to this yet.

    I was no supporter of the previous Government but their handling of the crisis last year was brilliant compared with this useless lot.

    And is it just me that gets mad at seeing the pictures of severly obese people having millions of pounds spent on their care when their situation is, by their own admission, down to their own lifestyle choices. Spend it on vacinating our kids!

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  • 128. At 10:39pm on 13 Jan 2011, Jon wrote:

    This is a dreadful tragedy for the parents involved in this case, but the cost involved is not the "few pounds" that has been stated. It costs £6.59 for the cost of each vaccine and to give this to all the under fives in the UK (as at 2007) would be £23.7 million and this does not include the cost of actually delivering the vaccine. I am truly glad that the decision of how much a child's life is worth is not mine, but in a health care economy where there is a limited pot of money a line clearly has to be drawn somewhere. In addition to which, there is no guarantee that the vaccine would have been effective.

    My heart truly goes out to this family, but I do feel that the decision not to immunise those who aren't at high risk of complications is probably the right one.

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  • 129. At 11:52pm on 13 Jan 2011, Kuga wrote:

    Please dont see this as cold hearted. My thoughts are with that poor family but we must take look a closer look at this situation. Both parents were medical professionals and would be at the forefront of understanding on this subject.
    As i understand the poor child die of the n1h1 swine flu. The vacination is available to anyone who wants it with, free to at risk groups or at around £7.50 from a chemist.
    Back in 2009 all children could have had a this jab and it was made available.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/ferguswalsh/2009/11/under_5s_to_be_offered_swine_flu_vaccine.html
    And as i understand if one had the vacine at that time you are coverd for life for that strain
    So before we politise this into a money saving exercise by the tory/lib dems lets just analyse the information clearly and precisely.
    I do request that Fergus and other bbc correspondants who enjoy the light of being able to publish information and offer opinion publish All facts and correct fact. The USA and Canadian Govnts do not immunise under fives. It is offer as an option and is chargeable. Their take up of vacination is lower than ours.

    This reporting has only worried tens of thousand of parents ...almost scaremongering.
    Parents...do as i do...look at the information and make your judgement...and remember where there is risk using vacination to save life there is also risk be it small, in taking vaccines

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  • 130. At 01:39am on 14 Jan 2011, serendipity7000 wrote:

    Sorry for your loss Jane C. My Partner had jabs for flu, swine flu and pneumonia - last year. This year he had the combined flu/swine flu jab. He is just recovering from raging flu since Christmas Eve - we suspect it was swine flu.

    The Immunisation programme for under 5's in 2009 was announced shortly before Christmas I seem to remember. It had a slow start-up - many people were told it would be available after Christmas - my Partner's then 18 month old did not get a letter to offer the vaccine - not long after Christmas the virus seemed to disappear and so many did not end up going ahead with the vaccine for under 5's. We were told at the time it only protected for six months.

    There was, therefore, a very short period when this programme was available. Since then a change of government and no programme for Under 5's prior to the flu season.

    Like many people and parents, I assume the parents of the little girl that died, were caught out - when we heard in the media that swine flu was back with a vengeance. Doctors surgeries ran out of vaccine and didn't get new stocks until Christmas Eve, when it was too late. There was a massive surge of people wanting vaccines in December, once news of the numbers in ITU broke - hence none left for a non-existant programme for under 5's.

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  • 131. At 10:24am on 14 Jan 2011, Kuga wrote:

    Just to confirm my point in highlighting CORRECT information. The issue of under 5 immunisation was released on 19th Nov 2009.
    One does not need a letter to tell one what to do. I don't need a letter to tell me to buy a stair gate to protect a child.
    The premise of annual flu jabs is based on the speed the virus changes in structure so in essence is a "new" virus every year.
    This is a very sad event and again my thoughts are with the parents.
    Bringing up a child is a scary,challenging, tiring task and I admire all parents. However there are some who don't realise or don't want to accept that this is the case.
    I don't expect the Government, whatever colour to take care of MY child. It is down to me.

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  • 132. At 2:22pm on 14 Jan 2011, ruffled_feathers wrote:

    101. At 3:32pm on 13 Jan 2011, classwar wrote:
    People are allowing themselves to become emotionally involved in this story as individuals. Nobody has had the brass to stand up and ask "What is good for the human race as a whole?" Putting the personal investment aside for a moment, has anyone considered;
    By artificially engineering vaccines to rapidly mutating strains of communicable diseases we as a species are influencing the evolution of one or more infectious organisms whilst counteracting the benefit of our own inherited genetics.
    By artificially adjusting the immunity of the human race, we alter the chance of a resistant strain occurring. By protecting the weak and vulnerable we perpetuate weak and vulnerable offspring.

    =====================================

    I'm sure a lot of asthmatics and people with compromised immune systems will take great comfort from your post.

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  • 133. At 10:45pm on 14 Jan 2011, uliveinfairyland wrote:

    The option should be there for parents to make an informed choice.After all,its the parents that will have a lifetime of suffering if their child dies,the powers that be will have forgotten in a few months.In US everybody can be vaccinated so we deserve the same rights. I agree totally with the lovely family that have lost their beautiful child

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  • 134. At 11:28pm on 14 Jan 2011, uliveinfairyland wrote:

    i think were entitled to know if the camerons have had their child vaccinated for flu ,and the rest of them

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  • 135. At 7:00pm on 17 Jan 2011, okidocki wrote:

    Its just so sad, a child at my sons school has died from Swine Flu on Friday another child from his school is in ICU now with this Swine Flu..the school is still open and no letter has been sent out to parents informing them of whats happened. Terrible

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  • 136. At 10:02am on 19 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    134. At 11:28pm on 14 Jan 2011, uliveinfairyland wrote:

    i think were entitled to know if the camerons have had their child vaccinated for flu ,and the rest of them.

    ________________________________________________

    No, you are not entitled to have access to other people's health files, and for the same reason they don't have access to yours.

    This year is no different than any other previous year, people have always died from the flu. So why all the debate and sensational headlines? Ask yourself who benefits?

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  • 137. At 12:54pm on 19 Jan 2011, Mike wrote:

    And who benefits in this drug - certainly not the taker (like most drugs):-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12224312

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  • 138. At 11:02pm on 23 Jan 2011, karen wrote:

    My heart also goes out to this family.I have two young children who I would like to get vaccinated,I would also pay for this if I have to.I can't think what it must have been like for them to lose a perfectly healthy child to something that should've been prevented by a swine flu jab.

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