From headline news to has-been
Swine flu began as a global health emergency, but thankfully never lived up to the initial fears. Cast your mind back to July 2009 and Britain was in the grip of swine flu fever. There were more than 100,000 cases a week and it dominated the headlines. When the National Pandemic Flu Service was launched it initially went into meltdown. Little wonder as at one point the website was getting 2,600 hits per second.
The chief medical officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson described the media interest as unprecedented, reaching "Michael Jackson proportions" (the pop legend died the previous month).
Today there is so little demand for the online and telephone service (where you can get Tamiflu simply by answering a series of tick-box questions) that it will be shut down at 1am on Thursday 11 February. The service only ever operated in England.
So does this mean we can forget about swine flu? And was it all a huge over-reaction? Millions of Tamiflu tablets remain in warehouses unused, and unless we get a fresh pandemic in the next couple of years, they are likely to pass their sell-by date. You could argue that was a waste of money, but it is easy to be wise after the event.
Professor Wendy Barclay, a virologist from Imperial College London says that the pandemic could have been a lot worse:
"If this had been a bird flu virus then we would have needed enough antivirals for everybody and everybody would have wanted it. A lot of planning went into how to deal with the pandemic and in general we have been relatively successful in the dealing with it."There is also a lot - and I mean a lot - of unused swine flu vaccine. The government ordered 90 million doses of H1N1 vaccine (with an option to buy 30 million more, which was cancelled). Thirty million of those were supposed to come from Baxter, but its vaccine was beset by problems. Two doses were needed instead of one, and there were supply difficulties - which allowed the UK government to invoke a break clause in its contract with them. The main supplier of vaccine was GSK. The government ordered 60 million doses of Pandemrix.
By my reckoning (and this is an estimate only) around 5.25 million people have been vaccinated in Britain. That means there is an awful lot of vaccine - tens of millions of doses - going spare. I'm told an announcement is likely in around 10 days regarding what will be done with the remaining stocks. As yet we don't have figures for how much the vaccine cost - due to commercial confidentiality.
A huge over-reaction or prudent planning? Sir Liam Donaldson says that he would rather be accused of doing too much to protect the population than too little:
"I would rather be on that side of the fence than having done too little, and have it on our conscience that people died who could have lived a full and active life."
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So has swine flu gone for good? Absolutely not. There may be very few cases now, but it's likely to be back next autumn and for years to come, replacing other flu strains to become the dominant seasonal flu virus.
That's why the government is recommending vaccination for everyone at risk of flu complications, plus all healthy children aged six months to under-five. Swine flu has been a very mild illness for the vast majority, but 60 children in England have died since last April. Given that this is now a vaccine-preventable illness, immunisation now should prevent the chance of them getting the virus in the future.
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So let those of us who want the vaccine have it - I travel a lot due to my job and would be more than happy to pay for the vaccination as I do for many others.
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Surprise, surprise. Another panic got up by the media to which politicians aren't strong enough to respond. Politicians are, at least, publicly held accountable for what they spend of our money (& the cost of preparing for swine flu massively tops the highest possible total cost for the MPs' expenses farrago). But the media who stir the whole thing up - often in a sensationalised & over-simplified way - are unaccountable & don't even have the sense of honour to admit when they were wrong. (I realise it turned out not to be as bad as people feared & there was a reasonable view that it might be worse - but isn't this in a sense the WMD in Iraq scenario, with which the media are happy to beat Blair?)
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When the taxpayer gievs money to private companies, it should *never* be commerically confidential.
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#2:
No, it's really not like the WMD scenario.
With swine flu, there was no way to be sure how serious it was going to be. Crucially, there was also no way we could find out until the time had long passed for doing anything about it.
There are 2 big differences with WMD. First, although we didn't know whether Iraq had them or not, Blair lied about this and said we were certain Iraq had them. I don't think anyone said they were certain that swine flu was going to be a serious public health emergency, just that it was a reasonable possibility. Second, the only way to find out whether swine flu would turn out to be a major killer was to wait to see what happened in the flu season. By then, if nothing had been done, it would have been too late. So despite the uncertainties, really the only sensible course of action was to prepare for the worst. With WMD, Hans Blix's weapons inspection team was actually in the process of finding out what the situation was. If they had been allowed to finish their job, we would have known that Iraq had no WMDs. There was absolutely no need to pre-empt that process by invading before the inspections were complete.
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What is quite obvious is that the media so completely 'hyped up' the swine flu story that the government was forced into putting quite a lot of public money into buying anti-vorals that were not needed and into a help-line that should not have been needed. It's about time that journalists and editors took responsibility for the consequences of their actions. THe opiniions of journalists should not be 'peddled' as 'news'.
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The daft mass media (ie BBC) have cried wolf so many times that I now give the news no more than a cursory glance on the internet. We had human-variant BSE, which was going to kill everyone. We had SARS, which was going to kill everyone. We had bird flu which was going to kill everyone. (I apologise if SARS and bird flu are the same and I am muddled. I don't have time to chase these facts - just blame the media). We had swine flu, and this was going to kill everyone. Undoubtedly there are many other cases but I'll not know about them since I can't watch the news, such is its idiocy.
Here is what bites me. When I heard of the threat from BSE, when I heard of the threat from SARS and bird flu and H1N1, each and every time I scoffed at the scaremongering and was proved right. I also never once believed any of the tools of government that Iraq had the weapons described. I am so frustrated by all this idiocy.
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Not sure what to make of the swine flu immunisations. I have one child of 2 and one newly 6 months old. The 2 year old was offered the jab but the 6 month old will not be offered it as they were too young when notification went out. It is a one off Government initiative and is not becoming part of the childhood immunisation scheme. If swine flu was so serious for under 5's then surely it should become an automatic jab. It smells of a resource based rather than child based scheme developed by NHS bean counters.
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"Tamiflu tablets remain in warehouses unused, and unless we get a fresh pandemic in the next couple of years, they are likely to pass their sell-by date."
I wonder just how long these tablets could realy be kept for I would bet its a lot longer than it says on the packet.
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yorkshiresalutations at post 8,
The trouble with all medications is that they alter chemically over time. Having worked as an inspector in my youth, I used to look after the medicine 'library' where batches of medicine were kept for several years. Each week test samples were taken to check the chemical stability etc of theses medicines, so I do know from lab experience, that they alter.
If the swine flu vaccine works against bird flu as well, I want the vaccine. Before you pack up this site fergus, please take a look at the bigger picture.
Anyone who thinks for a moment that the swine flu media hype and medical reaction was a waste of time, think of this. From all of the information gathered, they now have a better idea of the logistics, financial outlay and the public reaction. Even this site must have been a fabulous source of information about the way certain types of people react and resolve issues. The information gathered in real time must have been extremely valuable as reactions were accessible instantly.
Egypt and further East are struggling to contain bird flu, which must be damaging their economies as so many chickens and ducks have to be slaughtered to maintain some sort of control over the situation.
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Factory farms for swine and fowl will continue to breed the flu. It will return next year and the year after that. Spin the wheel and take your chances.
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"Cast your mind back to July 2009 and Britain was in the grip of swine flu fever"
Don't you mean the Media?
I never met a single person who was as scared as the media showed, of course there will always be a few who go out and stockpile food and make hats out of tin foil, and the media only ever seems to interview these people, do we have an 0800-I'm-a-gullible-person-please-interview-me number? Where you find some of the people appearing on the news is beyond me!
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Swine flu was like bird flu before it: dire predictions of millions of deaths all over the world and health services swamped and unable to cope. Ridiculous restrictions in place, normal life suspended. All aided by the media, for whom this type of story is the equivalent of the best childhood Christmas: plenty of experts to make scary statements and an endless stream of worried parents/teachers/doctors/other assorted clowns.
The economic disruption caused by bird flu in Asia cut GDP in some countries by over 1%. Ignoring the economic impact on individuals, just think what this implies for reduced overall healthcare expenditure until economies regain their pre-flu growth path. Then factor in the diversion of health expenditure from "normal" to flu-specific measures. If you do this, you quickly realise that more people have probably died because of the twin impacts of bird flu prevention than from bird flu itself. Once we have all the numbers for swine flu, I've no doubt we will see a similar result.
Swine flu was just a good excuse to justify outfits like the WHO. They need a good crisis every so often to make sure they continue to feel important. Of course, they're enthusiastically supported by the pharmaceutical companies. I wonder how much of the payments for swine flu vaccines will be making their way into the pockets of individuals over at WHO etc? A token of appreciation no doubt. WHO is as corrupt as all the other supra-nationals that control vast budgets but with no taxpayer/shareholder control.
How about a "three strikes" rule? If the next pandemic proves as minor as the last two, we close the outfit down? In the meantime, I hope nobody is paying GSK for all the unused vaccine. I ignored all the advice for swine flu and didn't get it, though my partner did. I'll be ignoring the advice for the next one too.
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11. laughingdevil wrote:
"Where you find some of the people appearing on the news is beyond me!"
The answer is simple. They are all employees of the news organisation interviewing them. Remember that virtually every major British broadcasting organisation has been fined in recent years for rigging TV competitions. Their favoured method was to get an employee to pose as a contestant and, hey ho, they won a prize. Even Blue Peter did it, so I've no doubt BBC News and ITN knew just who to ask when they needed a "Petrified of Tunbridge Wells" lookalike.
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This situation didn't need hyping - it could have resulted in the deaths of thousands of people and the government did what was necessary as a precaution. You can't wait until hundreds start to die and then begin ordering vaccines; it'd be too late.
For a situation where the media should be held responsible (in part) is the MMR vaccine scare... Any responsible (professional) journalist would have pointed out that the trials that suggested a risk were on a very small group of people, weren't based on a balanced trial and not supported by other scientists or peer reviewed.
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This is a 'no brainer'.
For once, the government did the right thing. They responded to a potentially very serious crisis. It turned out to be far less serious than thought and they spent some money they might not have needed to spend - so what? What's Jonathan Ross's salary, I forget? Or how about how much we spend (in blood and money) fighting an unpopular war in a far away land?
Supposing it happened the other way? For once, I give the Government the benefit of the doubt.
Lud
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The 'swine flu epidemic' was never going to be a major problem, just as the 'millennium bug' was never going to be a major problem, just as 'Saddam's WMD' were never going to be a major problem, just as 'man-made climate change' is never going to be a major problem. These were/are all myths promoted by the Labour 'government' to stir the population into a frenzy of fear and act as a smokescreen behind which to raise taxes and implement outrageous policies (and, in the case of Iraq, murder thousands of innocent civilians). Unlike the myths, the Labour 'government' always has been, and still is, a major problem.
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Fergus,
It is really rather good that H1N1 flu has not proved to be as bad as it might have been. However, from your personal point of view as the BBC's Medical Correspondent you will need to diversify.
May I suggest:
1. An examination of how different hospitals manage their multi-disciplinary teams that deal with patients with serious illness and the variable consequences for the patient experience.
2. Getting a second opinion and being treated where you want to be treated.
3. The need for a elderly patient's guardian to ensure that every elderly patient is not subject to an unnecessary chemical cosh and is treated as a valuable individual until they die.
Three to be going on with...
PS You had better unhitch your self from the onomatopoeic "Fergus the Flu"! There is more to life than flu!
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yesterday i took my 3 year old to the nurse for her swine flu jab. i know the figures for cases are now much lower than expected but it is still a risk and now that a vaccine exists it seems silly to now ignore it. i have never heard of a case of Polio yet we all take our 8 week old babies for 3 jabs for this and other unknown dieases becaseu we want them to stay away. we should apply the same logic now to flu.
lesley
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Thanks for the continued coverage, I still return to see if anything new is happening.
It is a relief to know there is not much flu out there, when the kids get poorly now, SF is not the first thing to pop into my mind.
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Hello Tinkerdelibobby2,
After spending the night in hospital this week, sat in a chair next to the bed of my partner, I continue to take purulent chest infections seriously. He is OK now, after being pumped full of antibiotics, but I was worried for a while. He had 'just a cold' which has lasted a couple of weeks, which went from just a cold, to feeling a bit tired, to extreme rigors, to a temperature spiking past 39 deg in the space of an evening. Looking at the other patients in acute medical and hearing them coughing, I wondered what they were in for.
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Hi Fergus, any news on what the governement is going to do regarding the Swine Flu vaccine. As I've said before they should at least make it available for those that want it, otherwise it is is a total waste. In the meantime, don't forget the petition Dave found everyone:
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/accesstoH1N1jab/
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No one in my family has had the swine flu injection as I work in a care home all the staff were offered it Myself & my Boss said in the staff meeting we are NOT having it. Boss had to give info to all staff even thou he not taking it himself. My reasons for not taking it? I feel I cant get the flu! When I was 17 & 20 years old I had the flu very bad I was in bed for one week everything hurt even to move my eyes, it hurt to cough, I hurt from head to toe; I thought I would die! Since then I have never had the flu! Even If I am surrounded by flued up people! Kids Partner, people I work with & Residents (lots of the staff go off sick when the Residents have flu but not me) I have, thankfully very good health. My boss he is the same I asked him later why he didnt want it "because I have never been sick." Another person I work with had the swine flu injection & was sick for a week! I couldnt afford that. When it is tried & tested for many years first, then, should anyone dear to me be in need of it (but not me) I may encourage them to take it. Our kids have JUST had the MMR one is at secondary school. People we love are so special it is important that we do the right thing for them. We only get ONE chance.... that is to give or not to give.
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#21 - TechSing - I agree, Our vaccine should be offered to those who want it. I am currently having an on going e-mail conversation with the DOH about this very point, apparently they are in negotiation with Macedonia and Estonia who have expressed an interest in buying up some stock to meet their emerging needs but not to be their sole supplier.
Petitition signed.
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There are three points to make here.
1. Fortunately, so far, swine flu has been much milder than anticipated, but try saying that to any of the young and otherwise healthy who were hospitalised (or died) from this virus.
2. Pandemics remain in the pandemic phase for several years before they assume the characterisitcs of a seasonal flu virus. For this reason, the WHO expert committee have felt that it is too early to say that the pandemic has peaked yet. There are still significant risks.
See http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61M6DM20100224
3. Past pandemics have had mild first waves and only become a major problem second or third time around. Relatively small changes can render everyone vulnerable. Until we have got past the next 12 - 18 months without a major problem, you cant call this pandemic over. However, even if the virus changes, a vaccine taken now may provide at least partial immunity to a mutated or more severe form.
Take home message: we dodged the bullet so far, but that doesn't mean the pandemic is over, that it cant come back, or that it cant get more serious. Personally speaking, if you are offered a vaccine, I would consider the offer carefully and take it.
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Fergus - one question for you.
You note the discrepancy in numbers of vaccine given vs. ordered. Do you know how mcuh of the vaccine GSK were actually able to deliver?
There were lots of problems with manufacture, such that supplies were slow to be delivered. It may well be that only a proportion of the order has actually been realised to date, and that we may well still be waiting for deliver of much of this 60m doses? It would explain a great deal.
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Granny, Hope your partner is ok now. Theres a lot of illness about and this snow hasnt helped matters either...
I am still hearing of people getting flu symptoms, and people who are spreading it onto friends/ family easily which makes me think maybe its not seasonal flu.
My Mum and Dad right now, have all the symptoms which worries me.
Hope everyone is well X
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hi Tinkerdellbobby2 at post 26,
Yep! My partner is fine and back at work, (actually within hours of leaving hospital) he is a glutton for hard work and illness does not stop him at all. The bugs that are going around at the moment are a bit ferocious. After a couple of days of a very painful sore throat and extreme tiredness, I thought I was also going to become ill but it didn't happen thank goodness ;-)
Hope you mum and dad are well now x
Bird flu is the bug I l keep an eye on. This week there is not much reported activity from the East, the situation appears to be more under control, but I find it hard to believe. Just imagine, supposing you have a flock of chickens and they catch H5NI. By the time the authorities diagnose the problem, some of the birds would have died and others would have passed the infection on. Don't forget, some of these birds are living on the loose in less than controlled conditions. Wild birds that eat carrion, domestic animals, rats and other vectors might also be susceptible to the disease if they eat an infected or dead chickens or waste body tissue. I know the authorities in these places have had to take rigorous action, maybe they have been successful, maybe not, I don't know.
Exotic places with Dengue and H5N1 rely on tourists to prop up the economy, they cannot afford to loose the tourist trade.
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From almost nothing over the last few days to rather a lot of reports within a day. Not the tired out HINI but H5N1, the big daddy of flu. At the moment it appears to be doing a very good job of exterminating fowl and causing farmers in the Far East a lot of anxiety, as they also have to cull infected flocks. If you get a moment, look on World Health Map to see what some poor blighters have to put up with.
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Can the spare stock of SF vaccine be souped up to combat other, more deadly flue viruses?
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