Swine flu: The global perspective
A few words about how the H1N1 virus is progressing on its relentless attempt to reach every corner of the globe.
New figures from the World Health Organization show the virus has now spread to more than 199 countries and territories and that there have been more than 6,000 deaths.
Although every death is a tragedy, that is a remarkably small number given that seasonal flu is reckoned to contribute to the deaths of at least 250,000 people per year. It is yet further evidence of the generally mild nature of the virus.
Having said that, swine flu has a sting in its tail.
Australia, like several other southern hemisphere countries, has recently emerged from its winter flu season.
Deaths were low compared to seasonal flu, but hospital intensive care units had not seen anything like it in 40 years; indeed, since the pandemic of 1968-70.
It sums up the apparent contradiction about this pandemic: mild for most, but very serious for a small minority.
Those at greatest risk of complications are pregnant women and anyone with an existing health condition such as asthma. That's why these groups are being immunised first.
Unlike seasonal flu, which tends to kill the frail elderly, the average age of those who've died from the virus here in the UK is 44. One in five of those who have died had no previous health problems.
As I have said before, swine flu should not be a reason to panic - nor is it something to dismiss out of hand. We can all do our bit to minimise the spread of the virus by following good respiratory and hand hygiene.
Several of you have asked about what's happening in Ukraine which, in just a few weeks, has recorded more than 250,000 cases of flu-like illness, with 235 people needing intensive care and 70 deaths.
As far as I can make out, there does not seem to be anything unusual about the outbreak there. One health official said it was probably a reflection of the poor state of the health service that the virus had had such an intense effect.
Crucially, samples of the virus have shown that it is not mutating, so is the same H1N1 pandemic strain that is circulating worldwide. As long as that remains the case, we should feel reassured.
Finally, if the virus has spread to 199 countries and territories, does anyone know where on the planet has not experienced swine flu?
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~27~RS~)
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Hi Fergus
I live in Greenland, and we are yet to see a case of H1N1 / Swine Flu.
_mads
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I've silently been reading these posts for a while, and I need to ask....I'm 24 weeks pregnant, not a fan of the idea of vaccinations when pregnant as the list of things you can't do when pregnant is as long as my arm :)
But on the other hand I don't want to end up in ICU....funnily enough
Why isn't the baxter vaccine available for pregnant women, as I think the uptake with pregnant women would increase dramatically if it was, so why not? If they really wanted to help pregnant women this would make me feel like the decision would be an easier one...
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Fergus, I just want to say thanks for looking into the situation in the Ukraine. :-)
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Pregnant, what is it about Baxter that makes it better that Glaxo in your opinion?
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Fergus, thanks for the figures re the Ukraine, I have read several reports and the numbers have all been so different. Thanks.
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Hope you have a good weekend now, Tinkerbell. :-)
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thanks everyone for the advice, i will look at the sites and papers suggested, i do remember skyline saying before that the sf vaccine is the same as the seasonal vaccine and there dont appear to be any adverse affects from that which is reassuring, meanwhile im trying to stay healthy lots of friut and veg and no alcohol or caffine and hope nature will take its course with having the baby and ive got a week to go till vaccine.
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Hi everyone, have been reading for a week but have not felt I could contribute to any points made so best to keep queit if you don't know what to say, but anyway, just thought I'd bring up a tpic which does intrigue me and I've asked the question at all, how do viruses like sf behave in different types of weather? Prompted to ask this because you Mads Pihl have posted from Greenland which surely must be colder than anywhere so far in the world that has had sf, but I've also heard you mention, angel, that you'de heard sf doesn't like wet conditions. So should we be hoping for a freezing cold winter or a mild wet one? And what about the Ukraine? Surely cold enough there by now? Also, why was there so much sf in hot countries through the 'summer in the outhern hemisphere?
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lol, thanks Angel. Im like a troublesome kid arent I? ;-)
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Ooops typos: topic...and I've asked the question before (don't know where 'at all' came from), and 'summer' in the southern hemisphere. Brain too fast for fingers.
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Lol, Tinkerbell, I did mean it though, hope you feel a bit more chilled now.
Universalmum, as I understand it, flu likes it cold, and places like Australia do have cooler seasons and so have flu seasons. Think it was Grannie who said she'd heard this flu likes it dry. I tend to avoid going out when the air is really damp if my kids are snotty, but at the same time it is important to keep the air moist indoors if you have central heating on.
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Sorry, Universal, doesn't really answer your weather question, does it? Personally I always thing warm, damp winters are better for bugs in general rather and cold, dirty ones, but whether that applies to swine flu, I don't know. Bet Skyline does though.
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What have I wriiten???? That should be think, and although a dirty winter would probably be quite fun if you like that sort of thing I did mean dry. You can tell it's Friday night, I need to get some sleep!
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lol
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Angel in answer to your question to pregnant - the Baxter vaccine does not contain the mercury & squalene adjuvants I believe. This is the version that is closest to the seasonal flu vaccine rather than the Glaxo one which has them in, hence the worry. The WHO recommends pregnant women have the adjuvant free version but because of its low availability, it's being kept for people who have egg allergies, so in the UK we've made the decision to offer pregnant people the adjuvanted Glaxo one which they think "should" be OK.
As far as I can tell in the US they are not using an adjuvated vaccine either - so their version is similar to the seasonal flu jab.
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Fergus - thank you for adding a new article - the previous one's headline was a bit alarming!
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Ellamed - might be worth checking re my post above that the vaccine being offered to pregnant people is made in the same way as the seasonal flu jab. I don't believe it is as the seasonal one as I understand doesn't contain the Mercury & squalene adjuvants. I'm not saying these adjuvants aren't safe, as they may well be, just that the vaccine generally used for seasonal flu doesn't contain them, neither does the US version of the vaccine.
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Peter Sym - are you able to comment on the vaccine types and clarify as we're all a bit confused. Is my understanding in the posts above correct? Thanks!
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Below is a really good link for seeing the spread of SF worldwide in map form. The grey areas are used to look at the parts of the world where there are no suspected/reported cases, the parts in black are where deaths from the virus have occurred. Amazing to look at. Very few grey areas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country
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WHO map of spread throughout Europe (other regions also available)
http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/bulletin_v2.cgi
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Thanks for another great blog Fergus. I continue to be reassured that the virus does not yet appear to be mutating, which in itself is rather curious given the number of infections. In addition, the point mutations which confer resistance to Tamiflu also do not appear to be spiralling. Both of these observations are somewhat in contradiction to the conventional wisdom, and indeed the predictions, yet another face of this rather unusual virus?
I find the hospitalisation rates somewhat confusing- particularly when looking at the data in your last blog. The figures show the 16-64s having the highest total in hospital, but the hospitalisation ratios graph shows far and away the under fives as having the highest rate. What is going on here? Is it that the under fives have very short hospitalisation periods, and the 16-64s a longer stay? Even that does not make a whole lot of sense, as there is a constant high level stream of under 5's to contribute to the "hospitalised" number at any one time. Perhaps someone can shed some light on this?
Finally, in a previous post, I commented on the seeming inability of the UK health system to handle the logistics of vaccination. I am happy to report I now have an appointment to be vaccinated... but only because I called my surgery, who told me they are not planning to send out lots of letters, and are relying more on at-risk individuals being proactive and contacting the surgery. I know how stretched their resources are, so have some sympathy, but contrast that with another local practice who have made a unilateral policy to vaccinate only pregnant women in their first wave, and not even start the asthmatics until they have enough stocks to do them all (500 doses spread between 134 pregnant women and 614 asthmatics- I guess there is logic there). Post-code lottery anyone?
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Some food for thought.For those still actually capable of it.
http://www.augustforecast.com/2009/11/03/swine-flu-bad-science-massive-cover-up/
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Thank you Questions, saved me trying to explain :)
If there is a vaccine available that doesn't contain things that they 'think' should be ok, then I just don't understand why they don't offer pregnant women the choice. No-one on here wants to make a decision for someone else, but us pregnant people do. I think the thing we worry about more, is if we make the wrong decision, it won't be us living with the consequences....its a tricky time to be pregnant I tell you :) The media make out we have 2 choices, be vaccinated or doomed.....
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the single dose vaccine is being given to pregnant women as it confers quicker immunity than the 2 dose one and given the complication rate in pregnancy speed is of the essence
the adjuvants in the vaccine aren't new and there is an established literature of their safety in pregnant women hence why the vaccine is licensed for use in pregnancy
here's the DoH Q+A for more info
http://www.dh.gov.uk/dr_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/documents/digitalasset/dh_107825.pdf
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Thanks dmc blue - that's really useful & dispels a lot of myth. I'm still confused which vaccine the Us are using though as I thhought they used an adjuvant free single dose, but i may be wrong.
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tiger - I think it was you had a post went to be checked by the mods? I just had a thought...when i went to click on dmcblue's useful link above, I very nearly accidentally hit the complain link by a slip of the mouse as it is just below it. Would have been a disaster! You mentioned your post contained a link? This is possibly what happened to your innocent post? (Not guilty though LOL)
Might be worth anyone posting links to put a line of text beneath them as a separater?
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Yet again this blog is comparing chalk with cheese. This blog compares ESTIMATED deaths worldwide 250,000 for seasonal flu with 6000+ DETECTED swine flu deaths. Leaving aside the fact that the majority of the world hasn't reached the peak in their flu season yet there is a more serious objection to this comparison.
YOU WILL NOT DETECT ALL DEATHS.
In fact YOU WILL NOT EVEN DETECT A MAJORITY OF DEATHS.
This should be clear to the author of this article but he repeatedly and consistently ignores this point. The CDC only detects 5% of deaths from flu in a normal year and its not like they haven't tried to increase that detection rate. Normally they estimate around 36,000 deaths but detect only about 2,000. We may be detecting a higher proportion of deaths in the western world than the USA would normally detect but this is unlikely in the extreme in most countries of the world. Its also possible that we're detecting fewer deaths than normal due to the unusually strict reporting guidelines we're using. No study I know of has actually demonstrated that we have a higher than normal detection rate.
In either case we should recognize that the actual number of deaths will be a multiple of those detected. If the multiple is 5* (the lowest I could regard as plausible) then the total deaths so far are more like 30,000 and if the multiple is 20* (quite possible as much of the world isn't really testing) then the number of deaths would be more like 120,000.
Apologies for shouting but this is a really important caveat to Fergus'Yet again this blog is comparing chalk with cheese. This blog compares ESTIMATED deaths worldwide 250,000 for seasonal flu with 6000+ DETECTED swine flu deaths. Leaving aside the fact that the majority of the world hasn't reached the peak in their flu season yet there is a more serious objection to this comparison.
YOU WILL NOT DETECT ALL DEATHS.
In fact YOU WILL NOT EVEN DETECT A MAJORITY OF DEATHS.
This should be clear to the author of this article but he repeatedly and consistently ignores this point. The CDC only detects 5% of deaths from flu in a normal year and its not like they haven't tried to increase that detection rate. We may be detecting a higher proportion of deaths in the western world than the USA would normally detect but this is unlikely in the extreme in most countries of the world. Its also possible that we're detecting fewer deaths than normal due to the unusually strict reporting guidelines we're using. No study I know of has actually demonstrated that we have a higher than normal detection rate.
In either case we should recognize that the actual number of deaths will be a multiple of those detected. If the multiple is 5* (the lowest I could regard as plausible) then the total deaths so far are more like 30,000 and if the multiple is 20* (quite possible as much of the world isn't really testing) then the number of deaths would be more like 120,000.
Apologies for shouting but this is a really important caveat to this post.
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Yet again this blog is comparing chalk with cheese.This blog compares ESTIMATED deaths worldwide 250,000 for seasonal flu with 6000+ DETECTED swine flu deaths.Leaving aside the fact that the majority of the world hasn't reached the peak in their flu season yet there is a more serious objection to this comparison.
YOU WILL NOT DETECT ALL DEATHS.
In fact YOU WILL NOT EVEN DETECT A MAJORITY OF DEATHS.
This should be clear to the author of this article but he repeatedly and consistently ignores this point.The CDC only detects 5% of deaths from flu in a normal year and its not like they haven't tried to increase that detection rate.We may be detecting a higher proportion of deaths in the western world than the USA would normally detect but this is unlikely in the extreme in most countries of the world.Its also possible that we're detecting fewer deaths than normal due to the unusually strict reporting guidelines we're using.No study I know of has actually demonstrated that we have a higher than normal detection rate.
In either case we should recognize that the actual number of deaths will be a multiple of those detected.If the multiple is 5* (the lowest I could regard as plausible) then the total deaths so far are more like 30,000 and if the multiple is 20* (quite possible as much of the world isn't really testing) then the number of deaths would be more like 120,000.
Apologies for shouting but this is a really important caveat to this post.
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Could an editor please delete the first of my two comments (the one with repetition) along with this comment. I had trouble with the submission box.
Thank you.
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I don't doubt the DoH say its safe, I just think giving us the choice would make the decision alot easier, if our health is their main priority...
One jab sounds better than two, but we've waited this long with no protection, what is 3 weeks between jags? ! :)
Just unsure what to trust, no 2 people give the same answer, and we pregnant people are kind of on the clock, if the 3rd trimester is when you are most at risk. Thankfully I go on mat leave at 33 weeks, so maybe avoidance is better.... who knows !
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Hi everyone,
It was a bit confusing signing in today as it has all changed. I have been working my socks off and have been too exhausted to blog. I have been very interested in the effects of the vaccine and have been silently watching and taking note from my fly-on-the-wall perspective. I have been journeying to work by bus every day and have watched and listened to hospital staff who have all been vaccinated. Everyone seems to be OK and carrying on as usual. There are a lot more people coughing and sniffling on the buses but they are still going to work. If anyone was properly ill they would be tucked up in bed with a thick duvet and a mug of flu powders. From what I can see, life goes on without much change and the lesser effects of the SF vaccine appear the following week after vaccine and appear mild and inconsequential.
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Fergus,
That is a very useful link: 'good respiratory and hand hygiene'
I don't mean to offend anyone but I think there is a bit too much emphasis on the numbers of deaths. In the West we have been living in a rather sheltered position in regards to illness and death and we tend to loose perspective of the reality of these events. The flu, any flu has the ability to make a person seriously ill and possibly kill. From the beginning of time, disease, death and predation has been a normal feature of this planet. Protesting will not change that, and expecting governments to be the panacea of all ills is frankly unrealistic. We should be grateful that there is a genuine attempt to attenuate the worst effects of a global pandemic.
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Pregnant, I know it i sreally difficult trying to decide what is best, I remember when I was expecting my first baby I treated my body literally like it was a temple, I wouldn't contaminate it with anything chemically-based, from shampoos to paint to cleaning products, as well as food. (By the time I was pg with my third I was so exhausted I ate chocolate for breakfast, but that's another story). However, I did get flu with my last baby and it was not pretty, I did not end up in an ICU but I was virtually unconscious in hospital and on a drip. My care was not particularly pro-active and looking back on it I feel lucky that it wasn't worse, fortunately I managed to get some antibiotics from my GP when I got home that sorted me out. If I'd been able to have a flu shot to avoid going through that, I would have done, regardless of what was in it. I would also strongly suggest that if you are anaemic you do all you can to boost your iron levels because that makes a massive difference to your ability to fight off bugs.
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Hi Angels
yeah, its a rubbish time to be pregnant! This is my second, my first was through the winter season too, but I was never advised by anyone of the risks of flu on pregnant women, it just puzzles me that apparently now its a pretty serious threat. Will wait and see. Haven't been contacted regards the vaccine yet anyway, maybe they won't even catch up with me b4 this baby arrives.
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I totally agree with you 110%, Grannie. I've always been aware of how fragile life is, which is why I prefer to spend time with my loved ones above all else. I too don't want to offend but although I don't know what it is like to be given a diagnosis of a terminal illness, there have been times when I have thought that each of my children were going to die (sometimes with good reason, sometimes just me panicking) and life is very, very precious, I know if something were to happen to me I wouldn't regret that I never wrote a bestseller or got a degree, it would be the moments that I wasted with my family, the times I didn't listen or the kisses that I missed because I was too busy, the bath times I rushed through because I was tired or the trips out I declined because I had a pile of ironing. We in this country (particularly parents of my generation, I think) have got used to sticking our fingers in our ears and laa laaing about illness and death, it is all something that happens to other people, usually in other countries. We never know what is around the corner whether there is a flu pandemic or not, and not living every day like it is your last is complacent to say the least.
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Hi, Pregnant, I don't think half the things you really need to know are spelled out when you are pregnant, it is the most dangerous time of a woman's life. I didn't have a clue how dangerous flu could be until I actually got it, nor even that high temps could trigger labour. Don't know why but pregnant women are especially vulnerable to this particular flu. FWIW my GP is going to make sure his own daughter has the jab as she's pregnant, he told me that as far as he's concerned for pg women having the jab is a no-brainer, although he's not of the opinion that children need to if they are normally healthy.
How long have you got to go? Maybe if you do decide to have the jab being pro-active and contacting your GP would be a good idea.
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Brown, that actually is a very interesting link and parts of it very reassuring.
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I have just read a curious article about a pet cat who appeared to have caught HINI from its owner. The specialist vet tested the cat sample and confirmed HINI. Is it possible that flu has been quietly infecting pets as well as their human owners? If this particular flu crosses the species barrier, have other flu types done this in the past and we just haven't noticed? This particular cat was one that stayed indoors and had no contact with other pets. It would be an interesting investigation to see if any pets in this country have been 'off-colour' at the same time as their owners.
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As a diabetic, a couple of years back I had a Pneumococcal Vaccination I know this does not give full protection but should all at risk from flu complications be given this vaccination.It would at least reduce some fatalities.
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Yorkshire, i have to say, I've been thinking the same. If the vunerable are dying of Pneumonia, then why not innoculate them against that?
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To yorkshire and pregnant
I think there are various different types of pneumonia which might be bacterial or viral. You might get a vaccine against one but be infected by another, similarly to colds and flu (you never stop getting colds cos there's always another one to get)
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Why is Fergus Walsh trying so hard to downplay the Swine Flu epidemic?
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Cant answer that at the moment........ watching X-Factor...... is he Louis brother? LOL
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M2, what exactly is he playing down?
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M2 - do you mean why is he not being sensationalist about it like some other media sources?
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Re post # 22 Brown I agree with Tinker, very interesting link, and quite reassuring. Don't quite go for the whole 'engineered pandemic' thing but happy to accept they've got significant projections wrong and one quote worth repeating from the article is:
"By statistical sleight of hand they have created this pandemic and continue to do so. One cannot foretell the future, but based on the data now available from the United States, Canada, Europe and the Southern hemisphere, there is no justification for the fear mongering by the media and government agencies.
It is accepted that the cognitive portions of the human brain work less well under two conditions — fear and anger. Those who have survived deadly situations or who make their living surviving such situations tell us that controlling our fear is the most important thing in survival. More people have died from making poor decisions while overwhelmed by fear than have died as a result of the situation itself."
Would urge others to read this link because it does give a very intersting perspective on the whole sf 'engineered hysteria'. I am not signing up to any conspiracy theory mind, so please regulars don't lump me in with them.
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universalmum - I read that article. The problem I have is when any article starts talking about conspiracy theories, I find it hard to accept anything they say in that article as fact as the writer has little credibility with me. I tend to dismiss the whole article, even though there might be some truths in it. I just don't know what to believe anymore - it's all so confusing!
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I know, questions, I know, but for me it was good to read something which enables me to take another step out of the fear I've been living in for the last few months. It's good to think about it from another perspective. That article may not be all true and statistics can be interpreted all kinds of ways, but I have to admit on a day to day basis, what I see and observe around me in my life is all normal, and all that has been fuelling my anxiety and fear over sf was media induced in the first wave. Perhaps I'm just more familiar with it being around as just another variety of flu now. Don't know for sure, but I do know that the fear was doing my head in. I also know that I haven't seen anything recently in the media that has alarmed me like when it first hit.
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Great link from 22 .. I am glad the author goes to some lengths to point out his sources ..
"As you will see, a great deal of my material comes from official sources, such as the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the New England Journal of Medicine. Thus my distracters cannot claim that I am using material that is not within the mainstream."
It is good to see that some people on this planet are trying to present a balanced view of things ... and that good information is out there in the mainstream if people will take the trouble ..
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Yes universal - I know exactly what you mean. Another well-known British news site really got me worked up in the summer with it's swine flu reporting & it was actually Fergus's BBC presentations on the TV that kept me just about sane because he just gave it as it is in a balanced way & didn't sensationalise at all. I travelled to France by ferry at the beginning of the school holidays and was a nervous wreck, absolutely terrified of being confined with so many people on the boat. I was able to relax in France a bit but was terrified what we would come back to when we returned home. When we came home, however, the first wave was over and I felt so angry that the sensationalists had ruined my holiday for me.
When I got back, I also discovered Fergus's blog and more recently, as wave 2 began, started reading people's more balanced comments. It's really helped.
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I will start with one question, with each feedback.
Why prime time BBC TV News (not BBC online), is not reporting the recent Swine Flu crisis in Ukraine?
Or, the recent spike of Swine flu cases and deaths (in one week) in Italy?
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Questions and Universalmum, I know exactly what you mean. My mum was really upset on the phone today (and she's a mega successful businesswoman, not a dotty old lady) because 'swine flu has really escalated'. I asked her what she meant and she talked about Donaldson's last statement. I couldn't get what she was on about and she had to go before we could finish the conversation. Then just reading this I've remembered she relies on a particular new channel and I guess they are spinning this into something it isn't.
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M2 whats the point? A mild flu "pandemic"...
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Just two more weeks of hiding in my house not risking flu and I get my vacination..might get run over by a bus when I finally step out though.
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angelscomeinthrees + SkylineOnFire — how old are you?
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There is a lot of silly comments above, but nobody is asking themselves the 'unanswered questions'.
I suspect that most comments are written by kids and there is no point in debating.
Goodbye.
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If this was a true global perspective, then why not include what was debated in the Polish parliamentlast week? Both the Polish prime minister and the health minister---herself a doctor---are refusing to buy untested H1N1 vaccines to experiment with on the Polish people. As they put it, why aren't the pharmaceutical companies willing to take responsibility for any possible side effects? Go looking and you'll find the Polish health minister's speech on video, translated into English.
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Well.... You come here. Label us kids.... Which neither of us are. And then leave. What a pathetic commenter. Either say something or leave. Embarrassing.
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Lol, MC, you have seriously made my day. Must be my new face cream. :-)
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Thank you for sticking up for me, Skyline, that was very chivalrous of you.
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Oh, sorry, just realised it was M2, not MC. I blame sleep deprivation.
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Hi all ... sorry to keep harping on about uncertainty over this vaccine.. I'm still being affected by reports such as this on:
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=23&storycode=4124190&c=2
I am definitely listening to you guys who tell me the vaccine is safe, but why do we keep hearing that GPs are split on the decision?
Is this lack of information to them?
Surely they have all received the informative leaflet dmc-blue was kind enough to post?
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Morning, Questions. I just think it is human nature. We se things very subjectively and the world as we 'know' it is usually what we judge it to be based on our beliefs and expereinces. This is why my mum and I can watch Liam Donaldson deliver the same speech and she sees a domesday scenario whilst I see nothing more to worry about than there was last week. It has to be the same with GPs - get 100 of them together and they will each have differeing opinions based on their own sets of beliefs, experiences and influences. Probably not that helpful, but in truth there is no 'definitive' answer to anything, our whole existence is based on the subjective judgements we make.
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Morning angel.. yes i guess you are right. But I since the GPs are actually being asked for advice from patients as to what to do, I really feel their advice should be based on a common set of facts. What I worry about is why, if these facts have been presented to them and are black & white, they seem so evenly split. Perhaps they don't all have the information and should have.
I wonder if any of the GPs who have posted here have a take on this? Why would some of your colleagues not be convinced by the vaccine safety informaton or do you think they are maybe not in possession of it? Many thanks!
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But GPs will look at a common set of facts and still differ. For example, a GP who doesn't see very many serious cases of sf, for whatever reason, will have a differing opinion on the necessity of vaccination from someone who has seen several patients hospitalised. A GP who has lost a pregnant patient to sf may be very strongly pro-vaccine whereas a docotor who hasn't may be more cautious, perhaps because of an article they read years ago about chemicals crossing the placenta. Some GPs can probably pick holes in the 'facts' as they are given them. I really don't see how you can get such a huge number of people to be 'on message' on this one.
Anyway, over to the GPs.
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If I were pregnant at this time and the vaccine was offered to me I would not take it. Why you might ask? It is all to do with previous life experiences. If your life has been relatively trouble free you would go ahead and be vaccinated. If you have personally experienced serious complications from other things then you might not chose vaccination. Whatever choice you make, you have to informed as best as you can, weigh up the consequences of each and go with it whatever the outcome. The poor old doctors have the same dilemma and as angel says, it is all to do with what the doctor may have learned about or experienced first hand that is going to influence the advice and decision making.
I had a one in 8000 chance of a particular problem and unfortunately I was that unlucky person and as a result I have become more cautious. (I can't become pregnant now because i am now too old thank goodness)
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Hi sensibleoldgrannie - which you and angel says does make some sense - i'll be interested to hear the GPs views. i'm not asking due to pregnancy (that';s all over for me now too thankfully!) but because my teenage boys (healthy) are likely to be offered it soon and it is a new dilemma!
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Absolutely, Grannie. If I were pregnant now I would probably have the jab because I've had flu in pregnancy and consider myself lucky not to have become very sick. But in my first two pregnancies, no way would I have had it, because in my experience things like that happened to other people. The reverse will be true if someone has had side effects from medication. With my children, I have one who has had a minor allergic reaction to vaccinations, but I have also seen my children get very sick through viral and bacterial illness and I would walk over hot coals to prevent that happening again.
Doctors will inevitably be making the same subjective judgements. I suspect that GPs in swine flu hot spots will be seeing a lot of people with a relatively mild illness so it's not surprising that they don't think vaccination is necessary. As I understand it although the sf vaccine and the seasonal flu vaccine are 'essentially' the same there are enough differences that will make some GPs raise their eyebrows, but not others. I really think we are so nannied in this country that we have stopped being able to take responsibility for ourselves. I totally agree with Grannie, get as much information as you can, ask for advice, weigh up the pros and cons, think about the consequences and then make your own decisions, and be responsible for that.
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Questions, have you talked to your boys about it? As teenagers I think they are old enough to have a view that should be listened to.
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Questions, my comments in the second paragraph of #68 about taking responsibilty weren't aimed at you personally, I was using 'you' to refer to anyone, in any situation - I hadn't seen your post about your boys then.
Pregnancy days over me too, thank goodness - technically still possible but never in a million years!
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I probably will when the time gets nearer angel, but I want to find out the facts and the arguments both for & against it first, hence all my questions.
It's one thing to make a decision for those in at-risk groups but another completely for healthy kids, esp if the second wave is over by the time they are offered it. They've had friends with it - all very mild cases - I can't see them wanting it somehow from their viewpoint so I need to get the full info. My eldest may have already had the virus too - he had a fluey bug where he was off school a couple of weeks back. All the symptoms (aches, shivers, flueyness, tiredness, slight sore throat, slight headache matched) but no cough & temp was 37.5 rather than 38. Youngest had what seemed like a cold just after his brother - just the slightest of temperatures and just a very runny nose (which he's prone to) and a cough (which he said hurt) but from his throat area rather than his chest, but not at all unwell - I don't think his was SF, but who knows! I had a different fluey virus a week before eldest, but no cough or aches (I had a temp of 37.5 too and felt shivery & couldn't get out of bed for the first 3 days - it lasted 6 days, maybe that was it too, maybe it wasn't?)
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Re: The Ukraine outbreak, it seems that what they're getting isn't mainly H1N1. There have been reports on Russian television that it could be a bacterium infection not a viral infection. Enclosed is a link to the Ukrainian website that has the statistics.. Note the ARI (Accute respiratory infection) against the incidences of influenza.. (note also this is ALL forms of flu, not H1N1 specifically).. What is odd is that I haven't seen any reportage on mainstream televison.
www.moz.gov.ua/ua/main/press/?docID=13943
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DEfine - that link appears to be in Russian!
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There are English titles within it.. the numbers themselves are easy to understand. Simply scroll down to the totals.
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I beg your pardon. I pasted the original, this is the translated version.:-)
http://translate.google.com.ua/translate?hl=uk&sl=uk&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.moz.gov.ua%2Fua%2Fmain%2Fpress%2F%3FdocID%3D13943
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define - that link doesn't work either
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This is an identical link, yet inexplicably the one I initially posted is broken, this one isn't and opens. If it doesn't, I cannot explain. The upshot is almost 175000 are presented with ARI, fewer than 9500 with ANY type of influenza. H1N1 hasn't it seems, been separately counted.
translate.google.com.ua/translate?hl=uk&sl=uk&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.moz.gov.ua%2Fua%2Fmain%2Fpress%2F%3FdocID%3D13943
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Re Posts 65 and 67,
Hi Angels and Questions,
Sorry in delay,just logged on.
Yes we GPs, just like the rest of the population, will sift the same information offered and come to widely different opinions.
This the same for most aspects of medicine but ultimately consensus on treatment usually appears in time.
Interestingly for me when it was first suggested we would be offered vaccination against H1N1 approx half of clinical staff in our practice said they were unlikely to take it.However with the passage of time,experience of patients and family with swine flu and reading more info on the vaccine most of us have taken the jab.Only four clinical staff have not had the vaccine so far and 3 of these are likely to take it this week.
One problem we have come up against is our pregnant patients being advised by midwive to not have the swine flu vaccine on any account. I am having long and involved consultations with these really worried patients trying to give them an insight into the risks if they develop swine flu when pregnant against any theoretical risks with the vaccine.All I can give them is the most informed advice I can and ultimately the decision will rest with the patient.If they ask directly if I would advise swine flu vaccine for any family member or friend who was pregnant I say yes.
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Thanks for replying Fortean. You sound like an excellent GP, taking the extra time to reassure those patients. It's interesting the swing in your practice is towards having the jab as more information becomes known.
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Whoops - meant to ask Fortean - does your view remain the same regarding healthy teenage kids who are likely to be offered the jab in the near future?
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Hi Questions,
Yes,my daughter falls into that category and she will be taking the vaccine(we have discussed this already).
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In the Ukraine, the country's laboratory experts along with WHO experts have so far found no evidence of a worrisome mutation in the pandemic virus isolated from sick patients in the western part of the country. That region has seen dramatically increased virus activity over the past few weeks. However, Fukuda said the virus is still undergoing further characterization at the WHO collaborating center in London.
Define-real, From what I have read in reports, there are three strains of flu circulating in the area, as in some other countries, however as h1n1 is settling in it is quickly dominating as the other strains will eventually be crowded out. The tests are still ongoing but they say it is likely the maj of deaths are h1n1 and that people are seeking treatment too late to be helped. Also, in some areas the rates are now dropping. It was mentioned by the who that SF has probably been present in the country for weeks and weeks and probably not just the two that has been stated. There does not seem to be any healthcare there, some clusters of deaths are being looked at as they are very high and may also be a result of something else. I think the plague info came about as the SF was presenting in some as similar sypmtoms as the plague and that drove that particular fear.
I also read an article that said they do not tend to vaccinate in the Ukraine as some vaccinations resulted in deaths in children, although I am not sure if this was re seasonal flu. They have now urged the population there to get vaccinated for SF and the vaccines are on their way, previously people were advised to use garlic and lemons as a way of fighting flu.
Medicines and even the garlic and lemons I mentioned are either in short supply or so overpriced that people cannot access them.
The ukraine it has been said has known that this flu has been coming for months and has done nothing to prepare for it and that this is a country who wont discuss child deaths and other important issues their people face.
We are lucky to live where we do.
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Fort - Why are the midwifes advising against the vaccination? Also, you say with the passage of time your staff have (after reading up on the vaccine also) decided to take the vaccine up. Is this because you are seeing a high number of patients being hospitalised or is it simply that the cases are increasing in your area and its the right time to get the vaccine? Thanks for all the info you post.
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ForteanAl, thank you for your reply. Would you say that the staff at your practice have swung behind the vaccine because sf has proved to be more problematical than you had expected, or because the vaccine is safer/more like the seasonal flu one? If there was less information available about the vaccine, would sf be of enough concern that you would advise going ahead with the vaccination anyway, for people who are otherwise healthy?
I am not at all surprised about the midwives, during my pregnancies I was repeatedly told to avoid virtually all drugs. Until I went overdue and they pumped me full of more drugs than I'd ever had in my life - I think I counted 10 different ones in 24 hrs - in order for me to deliver' naturally'.
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Lol, Tinkerbell, we picked up on the same thing! Interestingly the last time I saw my GP he'd changed from being 100% behind us getting our kids jabbed to it being 'a matter of personal choice', because he was seeing sf in its mild form. Demographically we live in a fairly middle-class, affluent, rural area which might account for it I suppose. He also said that by the time the Govt. offered us the vaccine for the kids the worst would be over anyway, although he's expecting a low take-up as well so he dd say he thought he'd have some spare shots going fairly soon!.
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Can I just say too that I would urge everyone to read the link that Brown posted, I found it to be very reassuring and theres some interesting figures re pregnant women with SF and also small children.
It also says that vaccinations such as MMR can supress the immune system for a few weeks afterwards and can make any possible virus worse. Looking back now I am so glad I delayed my daughters booster.
It looks like you were right about the obesity too Skyline, something the Dr who writes says no media wants to address.
The figures/percentages etc prove actually how rare it is to get really sick from this flu.
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Angel, lol, next time, Ill save my fingers and wait for you. ;-)
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Fergus, there are a lot of pregnant women wondering about the vaccine. Is there any info available to you about other possible health conditions such as obesity that may have caused pregnancy to put some women at more risk. People wish to respect others privacy, but sometimes in the media we hear that a pregnant woman has died, and no more.
What percentage of pregnant women did not have any ULH problems inc obesity? I ask as we are constantly told that pregnant women are more at risk.
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And smoking, too, according that link.
I wonder about the amount we Brits drink, too, although that is less likely to apply to pregnant women, obviously.
Of course Tinkerbell, that link is only reassuring to those who aren't obese.
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Hi Tinkerbell and Angel re posts 84, 85 and 89
Should clarify re midwives, it is just one attached to our practice who has apparently been advising against taking the swine flu vaccine,I cannot comment on all midwives but presumably just like some GPs have divergent views, midwives will as well,some will advise against and presumably most would advise for the vaccine.Certainly makes my job more "interesting" trying to reassure patients about swine flu vaccine safety when you have opinions at odds with each other.
We have seen a definite uptick in numbers of swine flu patients past few weeks,thankfully most with "mild" symptoms and I think this had some influence in encouraging staff to take the swine flu vaccination.We are not seeing a large number being hospitalized but we are only one practice and cannot speak for others.
I think some of the staff did wait to see how the first of us felt after taking the vaccine. Apart from sore arm for about 24 hours none of us had any adverse reaction and in second week I had more staff approaching asking for the vaccine after stating previously that they were not likely to take it.
Re risks of swine flu in pregnancy, the main risk is the body's dampening down of the immune response which naturally happens during pregnancy. This dampening down has the unwanted effect of possibly increasing complication rate if swine flu is contracted during pregnancy.Hence the reason that pregnant women are being targeted in first phase of vaccination because they are at higher risk.
My understanding re obesity as a risk factor would be that there is evidence of increased inflammatory processes(this has been linked to other disease processes eg heart disease).Sorry no expert there but that's my understanding.Pregnancy remains risk for swine flu complications without any other factors such as obesity/asthma being present.
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Just listen to this eloquent gentleman lay it all out on the table Re: the Merchants of death and disability a.k.a Big Pharma:
Gary Null Speaks Out Against Vaccine Industry 1 of 3 NYS State Assembly
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV93GI8yXLQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-n5GtpZXCQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9cMuu315Do
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Don't shoot the messenger but I found this. I think it quite interesting.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/11/03/What-We-Have-Learned-About-the-Great-Swine-Flu-Pandemic.aspx
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Hi Devine - Dr Mercola is Dr Marmite. You either love him or hate him. I've heard people both rating him highly & others dismissing him as a fraud. Yet another source to confuse us all!
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Brown, thanks so much for those links. I watched the whole 25 minutes and found it very interesting, though not at all surprising! I have done a lot of my own research on vaccines, as my son had some problems with them when he was very little, and I have definite views on them, and the vaccine industry. However, I wouldn't presume to advise anyone what they should do. My lovely neighbour is about to go and get her SF vaccine this week, as she's pregnant, and I have kept quiet about my own views. I do feel strongly that it's up to each of us to educate ourselves and to leave others to do the same if they want.
Brown, I think you've provided some interesting information on this blog, but people are understandably less inclined to listen to you when you insult them - I'm just saying what I see!
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To Tinker (#83), the situation in the Ukraine might be a more 'interesting' (which could be read as: potentially dangerous) situation than the WHO is explicitly saying. I'll defer to a Recombinomics commentary in this, which is a site that, admittedly, is on the quick side to cry 'wolf!' (or 'flu!', as the case may be), but with any sort of fast-evolving virus, as flu is known to be, caution might be the best course.
"[Keiji Fukada] specifically says WHO doesn't see any "big" mutations in the samples being sequenced, which would refer to reassortment or Tamiflu resistance. However, the changes seen in Ukraine do not require "big" mutations. Small mutations, such as SNP can have profound effects for a virus like pandemic H1N1."
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11090902/Ukraine_1918.html
SNP is, to the best a quick visit to the University of Google can discover, Single-nucleotide polymorphism. I assume that the article is talking about the possibility of a very slight mutation that merits closer investigation. Possibly, this is a virus that has undergone very slight changes that might have effects on how effectively the virus spreads and causes illness.
And even tiny changes can have severe effects, because of the sheer scope that the virus is operating on.
Re: the Mercola link -- it's worth noting that most of the article is the same as the link that Brown posted in #22 -- it's only Mercola's comments that are new. (Bottom of the article.) IMO, that's the least interesting part of the article, which is interesting enough.
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Goodness, Aminti, that seems quite scary, taken at face value. I hadn't seen anything about the Ukraine flu, apart from on this blog, and wasn't that alarmed by it, but now I'm wondering whether I "should" be.
I wonder if Skyline has any views on whether the virus really is making these tiny, but effective, mutations, and what it could mean.
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My eight yr old is at home with high temp, sore throat, lethargy, etc, etc...This time last yr I'd have just thought, it's winter, what d'you expect? It'll be over in a few days. This year every cold is sf and a potential threat. Is it just me or has there been more colds than usual this yr? I've truly never known so many and especially coughs in one lot of 12 months. I don't wish time away as a rule but at the moment I'm looking forward to May and having a houseful of well people and the whole thing behind us all. Still, I'm sure then there'll be something else...
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Hello Joan, I know exactly what you mean, and I empathise with you. I love this time of year, yet I'm very aware of the feeling of almost waiting for the lurgies to get us.
My son has had hayfever all summer, and then a cough on and off. Last week the cough suddenly got so much worse, and he vomited solid and not-so-solid mucus for a couple of hours. He was diagnosed with a chest infection and given anti-biotics. Of course, I then spent a few days imagining all kinds of things, but luckily he soon got over the worst of it. Oddly, his temp only went up by a degree (for him) to 37.5, when normally it would go up to at least 39. And apart from the sickness on the one afternoon, and not eating at all for three days, he didn't seem too poorly at all. He still has the cough, but it's not so chesty. I have to say, out and about I have never in my life heard so many people with such awful, chesty, mucusy coughs. They are everywhere. I am in Bucks, and it was the same in Brighton when we visited over the half-term.
My son is five, and though this blog has almost totally allayed my fears over SF (thank you!), I still wonder what the rest of the winter holds for us.
Joan, I sympathise, and I wish your family well.
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Thankyou, Enlightened, you're kind. And it's funny, but my 6yr old boy, who doesn't have hayfever or asthma as far as we can tell, has also had a chronic cough through the entire summer since early June. His chest has been checked a few times and it's clear but he still sounds like a smoker (as do his siblings to varying degrees!) Ah well, I'm sure we'll all get through it. And here's a word of comfort: someone told me that Liam Donaldson had surmised that those most susceptable to complications from flu are those who haven't suffered many coughs and colds and have therefore built no immunity to respiratory illnesses. I don't know how true that is but, after the year we've had,I'm clinging to it! Take care and I wish for the best for your family too :-)
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My opinion about the whole SF thing is this: Each year, we get flu in this country, each year it passes and unfortunatly some people do die. SF apparently affects some groups of people more than others. If you already have a less than happy immune system you'll be more susceptable to any infection taking hold, not just flu.
My take on this, is if it was as bad as we're led to believe, schools would close, because nothing breeds cross infection than lots of people in the same place, followed by shopping malls, followed by banning taking the train or plane or ferry.. In other words as all those preventitive measures are socially and financially impractical, so the danger of getting the SF (or any other infection) isn't high enough to prevent it's spread in a way that would actually make any difference. Mind you, the shares of pharmaceutical firms will be on the up, so thats okay then. :-)
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Re: Enlightened (#97), it is fairly scary taken at face value. That's why I put in the disclaimer about caution. As far as this is concerned, I'm, just like most posters here, likely, a student of the University of Google, which makes it perhaps even harder to differentiate between everything. A sort of information overload, if you wish. Ignorance might truly be some sort of bliss in situations such as these.
It could be nothing more than a new Argentina or Mexico City, if you recall such reports from earlier (the Mexico City ones were features on this site, actually, the Argentina ones I picked up elsewhere.) These were characterised by heavy outbreaks of flu that led people to fear mutation (Argentina) or a revival of the Spanish Flu in terms of mortality (Mexico). A mutation could have happened and still not have any noticeable results. It's not black and white, which is both a blessing and a curse.
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Im incredibly bored with posting the same facts in every post only to have several posts later more worry over mutation. You know what i think, you know what virologists think, you know what experts think. Its up to you wether you believe us or.... assorted links from local news reports.
If anything significant happens you will read about it on the bbc. Done. Its getting so stupid now. How many times are we going to go through this. Not bothering posting again until i see something worthwhile to post. Its stupid reassuring people constantly again and again with the same facts. Believe who you like
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Skyline, I was asking your opinion in relation to the small changes to the virus as described in the link provided by Aminti, not mutation in general. But since you can't be polite, please don't bother yourself.
You may have provided many people with a lot of reassurance, and for that I thank you, but you are without doubt one of the rudest and least respectful bloggers. Please respect others and refrain from making such disparaging remarks. Imagine if people had spoken to you like that when you were suffering from such acute health anxiety as you did only a few years ago. Not very considerate, is it?
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The worst part is that it almost doesn't matter which way the die rolls, all sides of the vaccination debate will twist the data to support their basic premise. The pro-vaccination side will say 'they saved lives', whereas the anti-vaccination side will say either 'vaccines did not save lives' (as Gary Null said) or 'the non-vaccination saved lives'. Or the autism debate reignites, or whatever.
Post #101 has the general idea of the current situation quite well. I'm merely a possibility-oriented poster here with slight tendencies to play advocate for that one downstairs. (Which I probably should have mentioned, but eh, can't do that now.) I don't think it's a god-given fact that people will die by the dozens per minute, as some people on a site I frequent seem to believe at times. (Alternately from the flu or the vaccines.) At the moment, it's exceedingly mild and the sensationalist media coverage (excluding a few places) is making it appear worse than it is.
"Another four people died, including a 35 year old male with no co-morbidities," a news report says, and everyone goes all panicky in this country. (The Netherlands) Bunch of bleeping bleeps. Every death is studied extensively and proclaimed to be SF with or without co-morbidities if the need arises and in the eight o'clock news, usually in one of the first three items. Suddenly, you can't turn your head without being confronted with the SF and everyone is complaining of coughs, increased temperature and aches in their muscles.
I really wonder how much of that is placebo in nature, in some sort of uniform subconscious need to conform to the current hype. I would honestly not be surprised if I encounter someone wearing a surgical mask in the train in an hour's time.
*climbs off soapbox*
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Aminti....thanks for your response in #102. And at this point I would just like to make it clear that, although certain postings send a little ripple of disquiet through me, I have absolutely no objection to any facts, figures or hypotheses being posted. Like you, I like to hear all angles and draw my own conclusions (but sometimes I need clarification from a more scientifically minded person in order to do that). I don't think burying my head in the sand has ever helped me, and I prefer to know I have asked all the questions and am as well informed about a topic as I feel I need be.
The placebo (or nocebo) effect...tell me about it!!! The times I have been convinced that certain symptoms I've had are indicative of Something Fatal going on. And then, when any tests come back negative, not only do I stop worrying, but the symptoms themselves disappear! And I could have sworn they were real (I suppose they were, but they were psychosomatic). Anyway, it must be entirely possible that the public as a whole is susceptible to a sort of mass psychosis. Even to be expected, given the media's influence over us. Eldon Taylor has explained that one quite clearly.
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So to vaccinate or not to vaccinate, that is the question??
and if yes, is it worth pushing for the Celvapan, which doesn't have all the Thirmosol & Squalene and eliminate that worry?
Any GPs, nurses etc your opinions are greatly appreciated as my doctors just says have it if you want, and don't if you don't....very helpful :)
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I thing there's those for & against the celvapan too Pregnant...was reading today something about it being made using dogs kidney cells or something. It seems nothing is straightforward and undebateable these days. Sometimes I wish I was a cavewoman where they lived in innocent simplistic bliss regarding things that "might" go wrong! LOL Decision making is another thing i struggle with, along with health anxiety. I'm finding SF an absolute nightmare!
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Re Post 107,
Celvapan not currently available and guidance we have is that it will only be used for patients with severe egg allergy when it is available.
Might be worth checking link below for some FAQ
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/expert_advice/article6908446.ece
Ultimately the decision to take the vaccine is up to the individual patient, we can only advise as best we can.
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Enlightened, I think that Skyline's 'rudeness' is what could be termed 'tough love'. ;-) Certainly he has shown me great kindness.
Joan and Enlightened, here in Mid-Anglia I've seen one person with a chest infection and one with a nasty cold. Also we had a lot of colds through the summer, and we had a weird virus that may or may not have been sf but that passed fairly painlessly. But right now, I would say I'm seeing less colds, less absence from school and less general illness for the time of year, apart from the varicella doing the rounds of the pre-school. And Mid-Anglia is not particularly remote, we have an international airport, and are within easy commuting distance of both London and Cambridge. The only thing that makes me think that maybe we haven't had sf as a family is that no-one has coughed especially badly. I'm wondering if sf did the rounds in this area fairly early on, but I guess we'll never know.
As someone whose kids have got very sick with apparently minor illnesses, I can't understand the idea that sf is potentially more threatening than other illnesses. Any illness needs to be taken seriously. Right now sf isn't frightening me more than any other nasty winter virus.
I agree that facing your fears is important, but I avoid Google like the plague wth regards to sf, simply because it is going looking for trouble. If I see something reported on here then sometimes I follow it up, but otherwise I just stick to this site's content. Skyline is dead right; if there is something we need to know, the Beeb will report on it soon enough. If sf is mutating in the Ukraine or India there is absolutely nothing I can do about it, so I'll worry about it when it is imminently affecting me and mine. It might be different if I were going for the vaccination, but as we won't be offered one for ages - probably when the worst is over - it currently serves no purpose. If I were going for the vaccine, which websites do I trust? Probably, none, entirely. So I end up going with my gut feeling, and given how my views sway over getting my kids vaccinated I'd say it would all be dependent on how sacred I was of swine flu on the day of the vaccination appt. rather than any rational or scientific process I'd gone through.
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That's scared of sf, obviously. My typos are terrible.
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Joan, I hope that your son gets better soon, and that your other little boy gets over his cough.
Enlightened, I feel the same about this time of year, it's almost unbelievably poignant. We've missed so many Christmas treats through illness but last year got through unscathed, looking forward to this year being the same. Even in my twenties I came down every year with something that would land me in bed at some point over Xmas. Am hoping that all the nasties have boosted our immunity, we've had some stonkers over the years.
(my top tip: pull the kids out of school a couple of days' early with 'tummy ache'.)
Wishing all of you well. xxx
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angels - i quite like the idea of a sacred swine flu - the mind boggles!
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Lol. Although I still think the dirty winter I thought might be coming sounds more fun. ;-)
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I really sound like a sad middle aged woman who watches too much daytime telly, apologies, although I do think it was a classic typo (it was supposed to be dry, in case you missed it.)
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LOL - I did see that angels!
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110# if there is something we need to know, the Beeb will report on it soon enough.
I wouldn't take that as absolutely gospel. I know of a few stories (In this country) that have not been reported (Or totally skewed) in mainstream media (Transmitted and written) that should reasonably be public interest stories, but weren't. Granted, one or two were issues that certain people might not wish to be made known, but the fact is, they were suppressed. It goes on all the time, trivial, gossip, social interest, political, health and any other topic.If someone in a high enough position decides it will not be widely known, it doesn't happen. I wouldn't automatically dismiss the net for getting mulitiple sources either, if you use that logic, the BBC website is out of bounds.
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Oh, absolutely, Define, I think that sf has been spun like any other story. But when it comes to issues such as mutation, I think I can rely on the BBC to report that. As for the rest of the net, I don't dismiss it - but the fact is that most (all?) sites have an agenda, whatever that agenda might be - for example, a site from the Ukraine might be pushing up the fear factor because of the political situation there. If you aren't particularly freaked out by swine flu then spending an evening trawling the net for stories might be informative, even exciting if you think you've stumbled across a big story that's gone unnoticed. But if you have any level of anxiety about it then using Google to dig around for swine flu stories is just going to crank it up. Between the conspiracy theorists, the scientists and those with a political agenda, there is a lot of contradictory, alarmist information out there -as well as a few facts - and it is hard for someone with my limited knowledge to sift truth from fiction - and even then it will only be my subjective truth. If you suffer from health anxiety around sf, whether for yourself or loved ones, googling about swine flu and ferreting around on the net for stories about it is the equivalent of being frightened of being mugged and then spending your evenings lurking down dark alleyways in Romford.
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Here's a nice reassuring post re SF in the Ukraine. :)
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/11/09/ukraine-internet-offers-swine-flu-common-sense/
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I like positive reassuring news. Here's another article from The Independent yesterday, much we have heard here before in bits & bobs but reading it together, it reinforces the overall positive story. For some reason the link was broken but I was able to find a copy elsewhere which I copied from:
"The 2009 swine flu pandemic may turn out to be the weakest in history. It is spreading more slowly than expected and the latest figures show a flattening, or even a dip, in new infections. It is mild in most people but severe in a few and, while it readily infects children, it appears to spare the elderly. With the vaccine being rolled out – more than four million doses have already been delivered – its impact should be further curbed.
So far in the UK, 154 people have died from the virus, around half of whom were under 45. In addition, 1,431 were admitted to hospital with swine flu last week. But in comparison with previous pandemics – or even seasonal flu epidemics – this is a relatively low toll.
In July, shortly after the World Health Organisation declared the first flu pandemic for 40 years, Britain’s Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, published a worst-case scenario suggesting the country should plan for up to 65,000 deaths.
That planning assumption has since been revised downwards twice, as further information about the behaviour of the virus has become available. In September the “worst case” was cut to 19,000 deaths, and in October it was cut again to 1,000 deaths. This compares with an average annual toll of 4,000 to 8,000 deaths from seasonal winter flu. In the last epidemic in 1999-2000, there were 21,000 deaths.
Previous pandemics have had higher death tolls. In 1918 Spanish H1N1 flu claimed an estimated 230,000 lives in Britain and up to 40 million worldwide.
In 1957-58, Asian H2N2 flu caused 1.5 to 2 million deaths worldwide and 33,000 in Britain. That was followed a decade later by Hong Kong H3N2 flu in 1968-69 which caused an estimated one million deaths worldwide of which 30,000 were in Britain.
So far, 2009 “novel H1N1” flu has caused 6,394 deaths worldwide, of which 154 have been in the UK.
Doctors say the key difference with seasonal winter flu is that it does not normally kill the young. Swine flu is worst among the under-fives, as happened in all three 20th century pandemics. The hospitalisation rate for the under-fives is four times higher than in older age groups. Pregnant women are also vulnerable. Experts say that even if the death toll from swine flu turns out to be significantly lower than in previous pandemics, it may feel worse.
Doctors have also been dismayed by the ferocity with which it attacks some people. The biggest concern is the number in critical care which has risen sharply in recent weeks, despite the slow spread of the virus. In England, of 848 patients in hospital on 4 November, 172 were in critical care, putting pressure on intensive care services.
Dr Steven Field, chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said: “I thought the original predictions for the number of deaths were incredibly high given the mildness of the illness we were seeing. Hospitals are coming under pressure but because the care is so good fewer people are dying.”
Dr Laurence Buckman, chairman of the British Medical Association’s GPs committee said: “The original government masterplan was for a maximum of 250,000 dead. But that was based on avian flu. It became clear that swine flu did not pose the same risk and slowly it has become clearer that it poses less and less risk. Compared with those earlier assumptions it is looking pretty tame.”
The H1N1 swine flu virus that emerged in Mexico last April was the first novel flu virus seen for more than 40 years, the result of an antigenic “shift” – a major genetic re-assortment of pig and human viruses – rather than the antigenic “drift”, the minor genetic changes that cause seasonal flu outbreaks each winter.
But it has since become clear that H1N1 virus is not quite as novel as it appeared. Unlike seasonal flu, swine flu has spread much less well among the over 60s, leading scientists to speculate that they have some immunity. Laboratory investigations have confirmed that around 30 per cent of older people have had their immune systems
“primed” against 2009 H1N1 swine flu from exposure to post-1918 H1N1 viruses circulating up until they were replaced by the H2N2 virus in the 1957 pandemic. "
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lol,Angel, re post #118 and thankyou for your kind words re my kids.They're not too bad - cheerful, which is a good sign! I have 7 of which 5 are small and illness goes through the house like a dose of salts. On top of that, I get way too anxious when they're ill cos I always imagine something terrible just as I know you do. I'm scared that 7 healthy kids is just too lucky (although maybe that's a matter of opinion, lol) Ho-hum, I try to keep the ha my problem but I expect they'll look back in time and remember that I was just plain crazy! Round here - the West Country - there seems to be a lot of coughs and colds at the moment. What the children have is very fluey but it can't be sf because my 6yr old had the sf vaccination and he's ill now. Time of year I s'pose. Anyway, like I said, thanks for your kindness Angel and well-done Questions re the comforting Ukraine link.
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Hi everyone.
Bad news about possible H1N1 and flu-like-illness in the Ukraine.
Over 1 million people may have H1N1,while others have very severe I-L-I. It was reported by the Ukraine Health Ministry on Sunday 969,247 people were reporting flu-like-illness (possible H1N1),however,on Monday it had increased to 1031597 people. I have read their official press release. So take care and do what I do: always where a face mask. Also Ukraine is reporting a haemorrhagic pneumonia (ILI)which may be linked to this.
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BRIAN GREGORY - PLEASE SEE MY LINK IN POST 119.
If its H1N1 it's GOOD news.
You wear a face mask in the UK?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Yes I do. The CDC and WHO say face masks can prevent H1N1 being caught by people caring for sick relatives - why then wouldn't it do the same in public?
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There is lots of information Brian to say that wearing a mask can actually increase your chances of catching H1N1.
Many masks do not stop H1N1 penetrating at all and those that do (they are the expensive type not the cheap paper ones) become damp after about an hour and after this give no protection to viruses like H1N1. Moreover they actually provide a damp breeding ground for the bacteria. Also once you remove the mask, however briefly, you are running the risk of contaminating yourself if you reuse it.
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My understanding is that the WHO recommend the person with the H1N1 infection wears the mask rather than the carer - to keep their infection spread by sneezing etc to themselves.
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Joan - seven???? Respect! :-) Glad your kids are are getting better.
Interesting about the Indie article flagging up the risks to under-fives. That is still contradicting the official line, isn't it? Could it be that there is some doubt over the efficiency or safety of the vaccine for the very young? Sorry but as a mother of an under-five I'm not finding anything in that particularly reassuring.
Questions, I totally agree re face masks - ugh!
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Yes I know angels - totally understand your concerns re the young uns. I suppose when I said reassuring, I was referring to the first & last paragraphs.
I also read today that Ireland are going to vaccinate their under 5 children next.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/health/2009/1110/1224258472512.html
Perhaps we will hear similar on Thursday?
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What's interesting is they are also going to give the group with highest immunity (over65s) the vaccination at the same time , before they move on to teenage kids.
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Nice to see the irishtimes.com giving clear details of how many vaccines are in the State, where can we find the same information over here? I think the answer is we cant or am I wrong if so please post the link.
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Re: Questionsaplenty2 (#130) - The chance that the over 65 get it may be smaller, but the risk for complications, if they catch the bug(ger), is bigger, if I understood it correctly.
Re: Facemasks - Cheap facemasks work for 2 hours tops before they have all the protective qualities of a wet tissue, and once you take one off for whatever reason, even if it's to sip from your cup of tea (or coffee, or bottle of water, or...), I think the protective value goes down even more. Not to forget that they actually need to cover your mouth _and_ your nose, not just the mouth. There are better masks (N95), but those have the minor problem of having to be fitted, as well as being expensive and scarce.
Re: Joan - seven kids? I can see bugs spreading like wildfire in your house already. ;-) Respect, though!
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Coming back to the earlier posts about the reliability of sources, I think that where the BBC is falling down is my not questioning the accepted line enough. I would like to see a more rigorous explanation of why under-fives aren't getting the vaccine, assuming that the figures are correct and that they are up there with pregnant women when it comes to being at risk. I woudl also like to see a better assessment of why the vaccines are taking so long to get out. And I know it can be annoying and even irrational but there has been little attention given to the conspiracy theories and anti-vaccination lobby. I know that giving it any sort of coverage can give these stories credence, but at the same time falure to examine them smacks of censorship, particularly from the BBC. I want clear information about the vaccine - not what Donaldson tells Fergus about the vaccine - other people may want to know why the conspiracy theories are rubbish. As much as I love this blog and Fergus' posts, and am profoundly grateful for the work he puts in, the overall feel I get from the BBC is that it will not be either too critical or too probing of Govt. policy because it does not want to risk alienating the powers that be and therefore ending up with non-co-operation from the authorities. As we know, the relationship between the BBC news dept and the govt. is shakey at the best of times.
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That is 'by not questioning', not 'my'.
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angels - you raise a good point re the distribution speed of the vaccine as it appears it was delivered to the UK & sitting around for a month (while being passed for safe use - fair enough ) but then this also means that if it was in the country a month earler, we cannot be awiting the first batch arrival, so why is it taking so long to get those first batches out?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/aug/27/swine-flu-vaccine
maybe 200,000 wasn't the entire first batch...but did it really take longer than a whole month for the rest of the first batch to arrive?
Aminti - yes i realise that - it's just what is interesting is by choosing age 65+ over teenagers they are choosing a different priority group to the US & UK - interesting that's all.
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Concerning face masks and respirators preventing H1N1:
Please read 'INTERIM GUIDANCE FOR 2009 H1N1 FLU (SWINE FLU)'which recommends both those who are sick and those who are carers wear a face mask on the website of the CDC.
Plese also read 'FACEMASKS IN INFLUENZA A (H1N1): WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW' (PAHO: 29 JULY 2009).
'ADVICE ON THE USE OF MASKS IN THE COMMUNITY SETTING IN INFLUENZA A (H1N1)OUTBREAKS'(WHO: 1 MAY 2009).
As for there being no proof facemasks - a year long experiment was performed in 2007 to see if parents whose children had severe flu and were in hospital were more or less likely to catch their child's flu if they wore facemasks. The study concluded that fewer parents caught flu from their children if they wore facemasks.
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These documents are talking about people briefly attending to a sick person's needs and disposing of the mask afterwards not wearing one all day in a public environment where it will get damp and become useless.
QUOTE from the same document you refer to:
Using a mask incorrectly however, may actually increase the risk of transmission, rather than reduce it. If masks are to be used, this measure should be combined with other general measures to help prevent the human-to-human transmission of influenza, training on the correct use of masks and consideration of cultural and personal values.
Also
QUOTE re the correct use of masks ...
If masks are worn, proper use and disposal is essential to ensure they are potentially effective and to avoid any increase in risk of transmission associated with the incorrect use of masks. The following information on correct use of masks derives from the practices in health-care settings:
• place mask carefully to cover mouth and nose and tie securely to minimise any gaps
between the face and the mask
• while in use, avoid touching the mask
− whenever you touch a used mask, for example when removing or washing, clean hands by washing with soap and water or using an alcohol-based handrub
• replace masks with a new clean, dry mask as soon as they become damp/humid
• do not re-use single-use masks
− discard single-use masks after each use and dispose of them immediately upon removing.
They should be removed immediately after caring for the ill. Hands should be washed immediately after removal of the mask.
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#133
Agree almost entirely with that assesment. I think though we should steer away from tarring all counterpoints to the official line as 'conspiracy theories'. It tends to colour by definition that any alternative view is the ramblings of foil hat wearing kooks who bay at the moon. They're very often not: They usually do investigative and much more thorough digging into stories than the mainstream would ever give time to. Just because it isn't read out in the thirty minutes at 10pm on BBC1 doesn't make it non credible, and conversly, just because it is on the news doesn't automatically mean it's true. As has been pointed out, there is a delicate relationship between journos and politicians/civil servants; rocking the boat isn't someting that is in anyones interest.
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Re: Questions (#135) -- It's different in each country. We have an 'elderly' group as well, only that's over 60, not over 65. Teens don't get vaccinated unless they're in one of the priority groups and it's pretty impossible to, at this point in time, get a vaccination out of order legally. (Of course, if you've got a GP friend who's got a few vaccines left once his shift ends, a few doors just might open, but eh.)
Different countries, different methods.
Re: Brian (#136): From the same CDC, the document headed 'Interim Recommendations for Facemask and Respirator Use to Reduce 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Transmission' gives me a table concerning the use or not-use of facemasks/respirators. It can be found here: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm#table1
As someone not at risk, I find very little reason from that table to wear a facemask. I'm not caring occupationally for someone with H1N1, nor will that be my occupation in the near future. (Now, education, on the other hand...) I try to make a habit of it to not cough, sneeze or spit in anyone's general direction (though that's fairly hard to do when you have to sneeze during a university lecture) and hope that everyone else is adhering to these social no-brainers (IMO). You can't avoid catching the flu. You can decrease the risk, but with the amount of public places I (and most everyone) frequent, there's bound to be some flu floating around somewhere.
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Aminti - yes it's interesting that different countries are applying these different priorities isn't it? Which country are you in?
In the UK they are now talking about schoolchildren being next after the initial "at risk" groups, and possibly the over 10s first - no mention of elderly people on the list here yet.
In the US all kids under 24 seem to be in the initial group offered along with the "at risk" group, though where the vaccine is in short supply they seem to be prioritising the under 9s.
Now we read in Ireland the elderly will come next along with the under 5's and take priority over the teenagers.
It does seem that the decision as to who to vaccinate next is not a straightforward one to make! :)
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Hello Fergus
I have been reading your swine flu blog with interest.
I am 26 weeks pregnant and the issue of whether to have the vaccine is an extremely worrying dilemma.
Since pregnant women are regarded as one of the most 'at risk' groups - and the concern is greater for us than anyone, with two lives at risk - I would be really keen to see an entry on your blog dedicated to the risks for pregnant women of both the vaccine and swine flu itself.
I would be so grateful for a clear summary of the evidence. How can we even weigh up the risk itself when the 'diagnosis' is done by a pretty basic helpline and anyone with a temperature and any symptoms of a cold is (mis) diagnosed?
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# 138
Deal, I do agree with you, my personal pont of view is that sf has been seized upon and spun in order to make us more dependent upon our authorities and less able to think for ourselves. So I guess what I'm really saying is that I would like to see more rigorous reporting of both the conspircay theories (including the fruitcake ones, because people do believe them) and anything that doesn't reflect well on the WHO or the Government. It simply isn't good enough to say that not vaccinating under fives is 'based on statisctical evidence', we need to know what those statistics are and how those conclusions have been drawn because right now it looks more like either they are worried about giving u-5s the vaccine, or they've decided that as a group they are expendable. Ditto the ridiculous delay in getting out the vaccine.
At the same time though I work in the MBS field - which for some reason has got very mixed up with the conspiracy theory movement - and know that whilst most people are sincere, there are a few who are out and out charlatans preying on the gullible.
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Re masks, right now I should think that the psychological damage done to my young kids by me putting on masks on them and myself every time we go out far outweighs the risk from sf - and they wouldn't be allowed them in school anyway.
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Questions (#140): I'm Dutch, and vaccinations have only just started over here. The... I'll say invitations (and know that it's not really the right word) for the vaccinations have been spread around to the relevant groups, which include, but are not limited to:
People with co-morbidities that put them at increased risk of complications (diabetes, asthma).
Health Care Workers likely to be in direct contact with people susceptible to complications from flu.
Pregnant women > 14 weeks pregnant.
Healthy elderly. (60 and over)
Those with direct family members at risk of complications.
Those caring for someone with a high risk of complications. (An adult caring for their mother of 85, for example.)
The last group has to make their own appointment, the rest is called up.
In the near future, children under 5 are added to that list, but there's a vaccine shortage at the moment and the next batch is due to come mid-December, if I read the news correctly. The Minister for Health decreed that they should be prioritised on Monday.
Last point re: masks -- I can already see any students I might end up teaching for my university minor laughing at any teacher wearing a facemask. (Teenagers)
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There is a guy,a Dr Joseph Moshe in the USA, who after he'd called a radio phone in to make quite alarming claims about Baxter pharmaceutical, was caught by a team as he was driving (the photos are astonishing),then followed a two hour stand off where he was multi hit with tear gas canisters yet looking at the photos seems unaffected, which amazed the police. That alone is weird, but the most alarming thing is that the police said he was chased and pinned down because he'd made a threat against the Whitehouse! Again, spin being used to diffuse the real story: Which was that Baxter had made a vaccine that when initiated would cause widespread illness-plague at that. The significant thing is he claimed on air this would be used in Ukraine, he also said when. Dr Moshe made these claims back in august.. So he either made an educated guess, a total shot in the dark or had inside knowledge.
Again, don't shoot the messenger..but worth looking at. I don't know what the final outcome was, or where Dr Moshe is now.
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=304213.0
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Firstly,I suggest you read the Press Briefing held by the Ukraine Health Ministry and the team leader of the WHO in the Ukraine (see: 'DEATH TOLL FROM FLU OUTBREAK IN UKRAINE RISES TO 144' in 'The Kyiv Post' of the 8th of November)which reports that those caring for sick family or friends might care to wear a cloth mask or scarf not just healthcare workers' who are in direct contact with sick patients.This is as well as those who are sick.The Ukrainian government also stated all people are obliged to wear medical masks if they are in the catering industry. All educational establishments are closed and all public events cancelled.
This is not a mild flu. Experts have said those who believe it are mistaken. It is very similar to the 1918 Pandemic which affected peoples lungs whereas seasonal flu does not. (Ref: 'New Flu Resembles feared 1918 virus: study',by Maggie Fox,Reuters: 13 July 2009).The 1918 virus killed between 40 million and 100 million people.I hope this will not be the same but I fear it will.
Like the 1918 flu this flu too is especially dangerous to both the young and healthy.It also affects the lungs and causes haemorrhagic pneumonia which is being reported in the Ukraine.(Read: 'Swine flu characteristics Becoming More Evident: Links to Pneumonia,Rapid Effects on Young Noted' By Rob Stein in 'The Washington Post': 17 October;'Studies: H1N1 Flu Causes Unusual Damage to Lungs' By Maggie Fox for 'Reuters': 15 October;'Clusters of Hemorrhagic H1N1 Pneumonia in Ukraine'
(Recombinomics Commentary: 4 November 2009);'Total Destruction of Lungs in Ukraine Fatal H1N1 Cases'(English translation by Recombinomics Commentary)from an announcement by the Ukraine Ministry of Health describing 90 fatalities associated with community acquired pneumonia in the Ukraine.
As for people telling me I shouldn't wear a face mask. I do have lung problems and there has been H1N1 in my part of the northeast!
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Finally, I don't wear facemasks for more than an hour and I destroy them.
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Thank you Brian. The obvious question that presents itself is that perhaps what the Ukrainians are suffering from isn't H1N1 but in fact a totally differnet illness that is being publicised as SF on steroids? A virus is a virus. It's either H1N1 or it isn't, it can't be 'sort of H1N1 but a has symptoms that are not what we'd expect from H1N1' can it? My feeling is, we're not being told the real story, I don't think that's the fault of the BBC, but someone knows.
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During the 1918 pandemic, there were no antiviral drugs and no vaccine (the same goes for all previous pandemics). Even if the viruses are essentially the same, which I doubt, the outcomes from the two pandemics will be so different that comparison is ultimately pointless.
Even the vast improvement in over the counter medication gives people a significantly improved outlook than they would have had in 1918!
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While I understand that this is an open forum, there are alot of people on here that, in my opinion, have real mental issues. There is no hidden agenda for population control or vaccines that are really the plague! I mean, are you lot for real? There is just a mild flu which the vaccine companies have developed a shot for. Either have it or dont. You head isnt going to fall off! The BBC and involved in a massive cover up. That would be impossible in this day and age. There is too much free speech on the internet for that to be possible.
I understand that people have health issues but they shouldnt be taking any advice from nut jobs on this forum, they should be at a doctors getting help from pros.
My advice, chill out!
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Oh dear, we seem to be going up the proverbial alleys to which I referred earlier. There are real questions about real inefficiencies and discrepancies that need looking at and there needs to be far more rigorous questioning of the accepted line than there has been. And I would like to see a blog from Fergus dealing with the more outlandish conspiracy theories because people do believe them and it would be good to see in black and white why they are false.
Up front I will say I didn't click on your link, Deal, just because I don't like clicking on links I'm not sure of from a security pov. However, if someone doesn't react to tear gas...maybe it isn't tear gas? It is quite astonishing the lengths that people will go to to dupe other people.
Alan, re 1918, I'm with you 100%.
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150#
I think it naive to think just because 'in this day and age' and the internet, (in general terms) any cover up is impossible! The easiest way to hide something is in full view. You say quite emphatically that you believe some people on this forum have mental issues: That being the case, a 'cover up' allegation isn't going to be believed anyway by people who don't have mental issues is it, whether it's true or not? Obviously the danger is one of crying wolf, and as more and disparate sources of information get presented it becomes a total horlicks, and there is then possibility of the spin being squeezed in under the noses of those confused by it all. I'm not suggesting what we read is right or wrong, but it's interesting that seasonal flu comes and goes without a whimper, yet SF has generated a cult following, it could possibly do with a decent PR company to get the world 'on message'.
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Re: Joseph Moshe story -- Let me just point out one minor thing that has struck me as odd in this otherwise incredibly odd story: If it's a vaccine that's going to be the carrier of the plague... How come that the Ukraine stopped vaccinations after a series of deaths back in September?
And there's a slight snag that they say Baxter has a plant in the Ukraine, yet I can't find any evidence of it on Baxter's site. (Unless it's a secret one, but if it's a secret one, how come it's known in the first place?! You'd think that the best secrecy in this day is a 'hide in plain view', what with people snooping everywhere.
Minor disclaimer is that Baxter only lists plants with >50 people working there full time, but this is running into the area of 'they think that we think that A is too obvious, so they'll do A.'
I do agree that the Joseph Moshe story is weird to the max, provided it is true to an extent. (A youtube commenter mentioned that he thought it weird that a microbiologist would call into a known radio station, after the show is over, no less, with his real name and everything.)
Brian (#146): I never said you should not, as I did not know your health. I merely pointed out that I'm not likely to do so.
Re: 1918 Flu in connection with 2009 Flu. A very quick search on PubMed reveals a 2008 article by Morens, Taubenberger and Fauci from the Journal of Infectious Diseases that has this as the conclusion:
"The majority of deaths in the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic likely resulted directly from secondary bacterial pneumonia caused by common upper respiratory–tract bacteria. Less substantial data from the subsequent 1957 and 1968 pandemics are consistent with these findings. If severe pandemic influenza is largely a problem of viral‐bacterial copathogenesis, pandemic planning needs to go beyond addressing the viral cause alone (e.g., influenza vaccines and antiviral drugs). Prevention, diagnosis, prophylaxis, and treatment of secondary bacterial pneumonia, as well as stockpiling of antibiotics and bacterial vaccines, should also be high priorities for pandemic planning."
Link to the article: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/591708 (no registration needed for the abstract or the full text)
I haven't read the full article yet, though the merits of such can be debated. (I've read the conclusion and anything I don't understand will likely be tied to that conclusion -- blind spot of the human brain). I'll most certainly try, though, just not before I've had a bite to eat. But I digress.
If, as this article says, the main causes of 1918 deaths are indeed due to bacterial infections, then it is not a stretch of the imagination to assume that the CFR will be lower. Hopefully, because flu is an unpredictable virus and complacency is not a good thing around it.
Further: With the current H1N1 virus (excluding the possibility that the Ukraine is a new version -- I'll get to that), most of those that have died have been diagnosed with co-morbidities. (Fergus says that one article down and the most recent update says it's ~70 % out of 18 deaths in the Netherlands.) So perhaps it's the 'relatively' healthy.
If the Ukrainian virus strikes the young and healthy more often, I have no idea of. The google translate of the data the gov't provides isn't stellar and the one column that could be it has lower numbers than I would have expected.
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Questions, thank you so much for that very reassuring link from the Dr in the Ukraine. A million people they say have had SF there, and 144 deaths. Not quite the deadly disease they are making it out then, but I suppose the numbers are probably very skewed.
The second post you made with the extract, was that from the guardian? (sorry too lazy to scroll back, comp slow) did you edit the last paragraph as I am sure I read that and it was very positive till the clanger at the end. lol
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Re mutation..(sorry SL!) I read an article about the lab in America who is computing all the SF swabs and checking for mutations, they were quoted as saying that there have been some very small changes in the virus, but not the genetic shift that would be needed to make it worrisome. Cant find the link.
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#153 - re 1918. Yes I remember long before SF reading an article where Dr's were advising Govts to stock up on antibiotics more than anything else in preperation for any pandemic.
Makes you wonder what the situation would be today if there were no antibiotics and we were in the middle of a world war. The virus may be similar in that it goes into the lungs, but the world has changed. The last two pandemics have proven that and over the years standards of care have improved.
Also, genuine question - were there any mutations during the last two pandemics? I dont remember reading about it.
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Hi Tinkerdell - did you mean post 120? No i didn't edit it. It was from the independent but for some reason the direct link is broken now. I found it elsewhere on another site as they reproduced the article...it's actually on several sites.. I think this was the one I used:
http://askville.amazon.com/Discuss-reason-Experts-curb-worst-case-swine-flu-scenarios/AnswerDetails.do?requestId=62617902&responseId=62618522
Its repeated in the following, but I notice they do seem to miss the bit off the end...
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/expert-swine-flu-outbreak-is-really-very-mild-14557275.html
I'm being a bit dim I know but I can't see an obvious clanger - which bit are you referring to? Thanks :)
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There are reports of a pneumonic plague in the Ukraine, as well as Swine Flu,
see http://blogs.healthfreedomalliance.org/blog/category/pandemic/ukraine/
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#156, re: wondering -- Well, if 2.5 % of everyone who got the Spanish Flu died, and if roughly 40 % of the world's population got it, that would mean that a modern day clone would cause 1 % of the world's population to die. Shall we say 65 million? And that's a conservative guess as well, considering the reports go from 40 million to 100 million for the Spanish Flu at a time where the world's population was 2 billion or thereabouts. Using those numbers, the deaths would range from 130 (2 %) million to 325 million (5 %), roughly.
Sobering thought, innit?
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Thanks - I get kids laughing at me in the street for wearing a facemask, however,if our government followed the recommendations of the WHO / CDC facemasks would be worn in public(in areas with H1N1)as well as by those who have H1N1 and those who care for them,who include friends and family,not just medical staff.
I never mentioned a 'cover-up',however,perhaps those members of the TV and newspaper media to whom I have written since April 2009 might care to answer why they have claimed since this period that facemasks need not be worn either by the sick who have H1N1 or by those who care for them when I have copied out the information from the CDC & WHO,including the link to their relevant web articles,which recommends that the sick who have H1N1 as well as those who care for them should wear facemasks.
I have found out most about H1N1 on the websites of the CDC and the WHO and in both the non-British media as well as on various other websites.
The article 'New flu resembles feared 1918 virus: study',by Maggie Fox for Reuters (Monday 13 July 2009): 'The new H1N1 influenza virus bears a disturbing resemblance to the virus strain that caused the 1918 flu pandemic, with a greater ability to infect the lungs than common seasonal flu viruses, researchers reported on Monday.
Tests in several animals confirmed other studies that have shown the new swine flu strain can spread beyond the upper respiratory tract to go deep into the lungs -- making it more likely to cause pneumonia, the international team said.
In addition, they found that people who survived the 1918 pandemic seem to have extra immune protection against the virus, again confirming the work of other researchers.
"When we conducted the experiments in ferrets and monkeys, the seasonal virus did not replicate in the lungs," said Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin, who led the study. The H1N1 virus replicates significantly better in the lungs."
The new swine flu virus has caused the first pandemic of the 21st century, infecting more than a million people, according to estimates, and killing at least 500. The World Health Organization says it is causing mostly moderate disease but Kawaoka said that does not mean it is like seasonal flu. "There is a misunderstanding about this virus," he said in a statement. "There is clear evidence the virus is different than seasonal influenza."
Writing in the journal Nature, Kawaoka and colleagues noted that the ability to infect the lungs is a characteristic of other pandemic viruses, especially the 1918 virus, which is estimated to have killed between 40 million and 100 million people.'
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angels i have been reading your recent posts with interest, and totally agree with you, i am starting to think as far as sf is concerned ignorance is bliss. I have been googling re the vaccine and like you have come across some alarming theories, which i feel i should just dismiss but some how cant, as they could be true. I have been thinking that it is a shame that there is too little discussion, more out in the open as it were.
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Hello all. Here in London a lot of people I work with have been reporting (from home on their phones, unable to go out to work) all the usual nasty flu symptoms, but most get up and and go about after having recovered normally within a week. One (not in any high risk group) has reported actually having swine flu and is recovering on antibiotics now having got a chest infection. This time last year I had normal flu and kept struggling on as it was a really critial time at my workplace and I thought I couldn't afford the time off (thought I was indispenable etc etc) and I got really ill with a secondary chest infection and was on antibiotics. Apart from infecting a load of others probably, (I now would absolutely not be so selfish), I noticed then how many people were coughing spluttering, sneezing, generally it seemed trhat London streets were full of sick people. Now? It's quiet, everyone looks normal, there are no obvious signs of illness all around.
Re: no BBC reporting on Ukraine see this link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8338835.stm
and re: current Ukraine situation see this one:
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/11/10/ukraine-flu-stats-panic-gauze-masks-and-some-lingerie/
(I can't find the lingerie anywhere however)
If they don't work, you can find them by googling "Ukraine flu situation" as I did about 15 minutes ago and these two reports come up on page 2 and page 1 of the search results respectively.
LOL to all
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#158: Forgive me if I'm sounding just a teensy-weensy bit annoyed, but there are far more reputable sites, not to mention that the pneumomic plague story has a glaring hole in it.
The pneumonic plague, Wiki says, can kill 90 to 100 % of those infected within 2 to 4 days. Only very early treatment is offered as a remedy. So if the story of the Ukraine has been developing for over a week, running on two weeks, by now, how come we're not seeing more deaths? Surely some must have died, and whilst I don't believe the numbers that any gov't with such an outbreak will give out, if only because they usually lag behind significantly, the deaths don't add up to that idea.
Counter: It could be a genetically modified version. Do I think this is possible? With today's science, it likely is possible to modify it to such an extent, given time, yada, yada. Do I believe that this is plausible? I don't.
The more I read about it, the more this is beginning to resemble the initial outbreak in Mexico City, where (and let's tick them off, shall we?) the gov't also announced what is essentially a break in daily life. This was paired with reports that doctors were dying, some in the comments on this very site, quite sudden and quite quick, and that the hospitals were struggling to cope with the large influx of pneumonia, from a bug that hadn't been identified.
Now we still don't know if the bug has been totally identified, we have the reports, we have the break and we have the influx. Only this time, it's in a country nearing election time (which reminds me of Argentina), in a country where power games are a fact of life (remember the 2004 elections there) and it's a country which likely has an infrastructure that's still somewhat modeled on the Soviets, though I'm, of course, not certain about that point. Whether that's good or bad, I don't know.
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To add to this the 'Swine Flu Q&A' on the website of NHS Choices under
'Are older people more likely to catch swine flu?'tells us 'It is not yet known, but most cases so far in the UK have been in people younger than 60. Some older people may have partial resistance to the swine flu virus, due to being exposed to a similar flu virus in a previous pandemic.'
As for my reference to 'Swine Flu' not being the same as 'seasonal flu' and how 'Swine Flu'is fatal the following questions are answered:
'Is swine flu a mild infection and therefore no cause for concern?': 'It is too soon to assume it will be a mild infection. Not everything about the virus is known, and each case that comes up is being closely monitored. The flu virus changes very rapidly. It can pick up and swap genetic material, which dramatically changes it, increasing the severity of symptoms. The virus could change in the autumn, and so this has to be prepared for.'
'How does swine flu cause death?': 'Like any other type of flu, people can die from swine flu if they develop complications, such as pneumonia.'
'Who should be wearing a facemask?': 'The Health Protection Agency (HPA) recommends that healthcare workers wear a facemask if they come into close contact with a person with symptoms (within one metre), to reduce their risk of catching the virus from patients. However, the HPA does not recommend that healthy people wear facemasks in their everyday life.'
Why shouldn't the general public wear facemasks?: There is no evidence to suggest that this is a useful preventative measure. The virus is spread by people touching infected surfaces, or by someone coughing or sneezing at very close range. So unless you are standing very close to someone with the virus, wearing a facemask will not make a difference. There are concerns about the risks of not using facemasks correctly. They must be changed regularly as they don't work as well when dampened by a person’s breath. People may infect themselves if they touch the outside of their mask, or may infect others by not throwing away old masks safely.'
The HPA has already told healthcare workers to wear facemasks to prevent being infected. There is also proof that wearing facemasks works and is recommended by the CDC & WHO as well as other studies.Please read:
'Australian Researchers: Surgical Face Masks Important Weapon Against Swine Flu' By Phil Mercer (VOA News.com:28 April 2009)and 'Facemasks can protect against flu - if only people keep them on' By Mark Henderson ('The Times': 26 January 2009)and 'Study: Face masks seem to protect against flu' By Heather Mayer (CNN: 3 August 2009). Thirdly,how does a person going into the open know he / she will not be next to a person with H1N1(you're infectious before showing symptoms)? Fourthly,yes - you should remove the mask and destroy it not re-use it,then wash your hands and face,never re-use a used face-mask.
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I agree Aminti and I posted the two links to show some of the others here who appear to be worrying needlessly that 1) there is no cover up (the BBC has reported it, albeit stoking up a bit of panic by reporting panic increasing in Ukraine, this on 3rd November) and 2) the report from the Ukraine talks about flu epidemics every year in similar vein with similar if not higher CFR to this one. I also don't buy the pneunomic plague theory and I certainly can't give any credence to the "genetically modified" thing. Plague is however such a scary word. I've posted before about the mentions I heard on the World Service in the summer about an outbreak of (can't remember what type now) of plague in a remote area of China and also bubonic in India, both outbreaks fleetingly mentioned on a very reputable medium. The World Service has been silent on the Ukraine as it has for some months now on SF.
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universal - thanks for your reassuring post re London. My asthmatic Hubby has to travel there today (still no vaccine invite from the doc). My kids tell me far fewer seem to be off sick than before half term here which kind of matches up with what you say.
Looking forward to tomorrows results with hope.
RE the vaccine, I don't belive in any conspiracy theories, people are still saying elvis is alive for goodness sake, I'm just not even going there. However, my Hubby still has a concern over the squalene which I haven't really asked about yet. I know people have said it is safe but does anyone have any info about whether any links with gulf war syndrome have been disproved? I would be very grateful. Thanks
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Aminti - I just wanted to commend you on your fantastic English! You honestly would not think it isn't your first language. It seems to be with all Dutch people I've met - many even manage to speak English without any sort of Dutch accent which constantly amazes me!
It's really good to get a perspective from another European country & see what is happening there. Interesting about 60+ being your older age group.
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Meanwhile...while you all go off into depths of hysterical paranoia...can anyone point me in the direction of some decent facts about the risks for pregnant womwnt of both the flu and the vaccine??!!
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168. At 09:00am on 11 Nov 2009, totaldilemma wrote:
"Meanwhile...while you all go off into depths of hysterical paranoia...can anyone point me in the direction of some decent facts about the risks for pregnant womwnt of both the flu and the vaccine??!!"
See my post#92.
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Totaldilemma,
I really believe there is no definitive right or wrong thing to do re vaccination. As angel said, so much of our decision-making is down to subjective experience, and that includes professionals in health care. If you don't feel comfortable taking advice from your doc, you'll have to gather all information you can find yourself, read it, consider it, and reach a personal decision. Not easy, I know, but the more you read (from a broad slection of sources) the more you'll start to get a "gut-feeling" one way or the other.
Good luck!
By the way, nobody here is in the depths of hysterical paranoia - it's a healthy discussion that is taking place, and inevitably there will be many different views and concerns. It's good to get it all out in the open, in my opinion.
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Aminti - your posts are always interesting, thanks!
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Brian
If you want to wear a face mask, no one can stop you. It's your decision
:)
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My local paper is headlining with "Swine flu will be gone by Xmas".
Did you write that Skyline? lol ;-) Honestly, where I live its been everywhere and now the numbers are dropping considerably. 1,700 people thought to have flu symptoms in Wales, although I know it must be higher as I know people who have it now and havent consulted any GP's. Nine people here have died and 75 are being treated in hospital.
Dr Ronald Salmon predicted that South Wales may be over the worst and should be gone almost by Xmas.
I feel bad for people who are just getting it now in the cold season. I know people in Italy who have just started coming down with it.
Although this is only one area I comment on, I think Skyline was right and that we are so saturated with it, it wont be long before its gone.
By the way there was a very interesting story about a local lad here, who was fit and healthy, at 28 got SF and ended up in Leicester for the special blood treatment, his heart stopped 7 times, they had to fit a temporary pacemaker, the machine saved his life and now he his fine.
Amazing.
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The reason the plague was mentioned initially was because some of the more severe cases of SF there had been thought to have displayed symptoms much like the plague. As there was no reliable testing in the Ukraine for h1n1 and all the results were coming back negative, it is natural that some people there would assume this. It didnt help that the Ukraine reported that the flu had only been there about a week, and in that short space of time 100 people had died. 25 in one night alone. The who said it is likely it would have been there much much longer, that the virus is so mild it sneaks up on a country and then bam, you get cold weather and lots of sick people.
That link from Questions re the Ukraine says a lot about the political rubbish behind it all.
They are reporting over a million people have had SF there, the numbers in hospital are very very high. We are lucky that we had such a peak in the Summer.
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Questions, ahhhaa!!! That extract I had read was from the Independent not the Guardian, I read exactly the same article as you but at the end they had a quote from a specialist saying that SF might get worse next year and that they are expecting it to mutate which would cause more deaths. I have just gone back to look at it, and it has been changed!!!!! Perhaps he was mis quoted and they had to change it!! Quite revealing isnt it? This is what it says at the end now, although please do not assume that it was the named man below who I read had said it initially as I cannot be sure....
Professor John Oxford, a flu expert and director of Retroscreen Virology Ltd, said: "So far, this pandemic is the weakest. But the paradox is it could be worse next year. We cannot let up our guard."
A telling sign maybe that the press hype it up and the Drs are rebelling!! lol
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#170 - Enlightened. Well said.
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http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/boy-rushed-to-hospital-after-swine-flu-jab-14543347.html
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Totaldilemma we are not all in the depths of hysterical paranoia. My posts 162 and 165 are both as far away from hysterical paranoia as you can possibly get. I can't help with facts on sf and pregnancy and vaccines because I have no factual knowledge but there have been lots of sensible posts on this and previous blogs which should help you weigh things up. When I was 3 months pregnant I got malaria because I was in a malarial area in Mozambique and I had to stop the anti-malarials I had been taking; they were completely off limits during pregnancy. So I then had to take the medication prescribed to cure the malaria and no matter how many people I asked I couldn't get more than a not very medically knowledgable reassuring "oh the baby will be fine". I had to take heavy nasty chemicals not knowing what effect it would have on my baby or face the fact that I might have died from the malaria, so sometimes life is just about having to make a hard choice and not fully knowing the consequences. I have a healthy happy and strong 5 year old, with all her faculties intact.
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Thanks enlightened - I agree whole heartedly. My problem is that the official advice is obviously going to be from only one point of view and the counter point of view is extremely difficult to get facts rather than opinions and speculation on. Hence my frustration. Everyine keeps saying that pregnant women in the third trimester are more likely to catch it and more at risk of becoming seriously ill but what are the stats? And when we are advised that in pregnancy its OK to take a paracetamol, but not an Ibuprofen, why are there not more facts available about the contents and potential risks of the vaccine? Its ridiculous how vague the information is.
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Tinkerbell, thanks! And that link to the Belfast Telegraph was interesting. Good grief, the stress those poor parents went through. I suppose we will never know whether the vaccination caused the reaction, or whether the boy already had SF. I know what I think, though! I looked at the CDC's site VAERS a while ago, and it's quite disconcerting to see how many adverse events have been reported, and judged (by the CDC) to be genuine. I'm not totally anti-vaccine, by the way...just mindful of possible reactions, and the fact that everything carries a risk, and we have to weigh up those risks.
Totaldilemma - yes, it's so tricky weighing these things up, with so little to go on, and so many conflicting views. Due to the suppression of immunity that goes with pregnancy, expectant women are always more at risk, no matter whether it's swine flu or whatever, but we don't let that worry us too much usually! I believe that although pregnant women are more at risk from swine flu, if you look at the likelihood of one particular person being the "unlucky one", the stats must be very small. Maybe SF won't even be so prevalent by the time you get to third trimester. You have to think about all these things, including the pros and cons of vaccination, and go with your gut feeling, because there is never going to be one correct answer on this. And that goes for whether you decide to avoid soft cheese, tuna, whatever, as well!!
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Tinkerdell...i still can't get the article to show up on the Independent website..keeps giving me a broken link - how weird!
Ooh I LOVE your local paper for their headline! I am also hopeful of this because a typical flu wave is 12 weeks and the current one will be well over by Christmas. It is possible we could have a third wave apparantly in Feb/ Mar - the only downside.
That's interesting they changed the article - also interesting that paragraph wasn't included on the other sites that replicated the article that i posted above. Hmmm.... I think the mutation comment is nothing new - they've been terrifying us with that in the press since Day 1 when the SF arrived in the UK. It's becoming mentioned less & less it seems & Skyline tells us it's impossible anyway for that particular virus.
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And Tinkerbell, Skyline has been amazingly right about everything, right from the beginning, hasn't he? I mean, about SF. Very reassuring! Even if he can be a bit (in my opinion) naughty sometimes. He's still been quite a gem.
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Further to my question about Gulf war Syndrome and has anyone got any info I can show Hubby containing disproof that squalene caused it...
Can anyone tell me how long the vaccine is expected to provide immunity for please?
Hubby should be getting the "all" as an asthmatic soon and is still sitting on the fence needing more info.
Many thanks!
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USA revises Death count from 1,200 to 4,000 deaths
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/11/health/11flu.html?_r=1&ref=health
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that was "call"
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The Belfast Telegraph link doesn't even have to be Swine Flu related - people have bad reactions to all vaccines all the time, though most of them are limited to a sore/stiff arm. (I know I'm going to request the shot to be in my left arm, should I ever get one -- the last time I had a vaccination, I ended up with annoyingly stiff muscles around the injection site.) This could be one of those 'one in a lot' cases that do happen.
It must have been a terrible scare for the parents, though. I can't even imagine what they went through. Here's to hoping that the lad makes a speedy recovery and that there will be no such other happening any time soon.
Also, entirely unrelated, but I've always wondered about the modern use of the phrase 'sitting on the fence' -- I see a fair amount of fences around here with some spikes incorporated, so I imagine that could be quite painful. ;-)
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I do think this is wrong
http://www.managementinpractice.com/default.asp?title=GPsofferedbonusesforhittingswinefluvaccinationtargets&page=article.display&article.id=19294
Surely this is part of their job?
Angels - please see that the last line is hidden another mention that 5-16 yr olds are next in line.
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(No offence to the GPs reading this who post)
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Or is this money what it costs the practice to give the jabs rather than what the title implies of being personal bonuses. (The nurses give the jabs at my doctors anyway not the GPs - am I missing something?)
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I can see why this might be controversial in Canada!
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hHPC4C1s30a04ZO6fkEkRxuwnn2AD9BSVG3O0
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Not posted for a while as have been on my travels. My neighbour is an intensive care nurse and she has explained the fees paid to doctors for providing the vaccine in the following way. Apparently the volume of vaccine that GP surgeries need to hold may require many of them to invest in additional refrigeration and storage units to hold the vaccine until it is used. Their existing units are used for seasonal flu vaccines which they still need to offer. Don't know if this is correct but just sharing what I've been told.
It's not good to be rude to other posters as we should all be allowed to put forward our points of view. However, I think that many of us who have been posting for a few months are concerned at scaremongering by a few posters who don't seem to have support for their views.
My son is at university in the north east and they do not seem to have had any serious H1N1 issues there. Lots of the normal 'freshers' flu which is only to be expected. But no really serious cases of anything. Obviously I'm really pleased about this but also a little surprised.
My advice (completely non-medically based of course!) is as follows:
1. If you have real health anxiety then seriously consider whether googling for sf is best for you.
2. Wash hands frequently and use tissues etc.
3. If you think you have flu then try (I know its not always possible) to stay home.
Think that's all for now!
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Gillie - thanks for that. I guess if the money is spent on storage units or other things for the practice/ additional resources of any type that is different. It is the word bonus in the titale that caught my attention!
I have HA (diagnosed and counselled with CBT) & so try & keep my googling to positive searches such as "swine flu peak" etc. It helps counterbalance the scare stories for me! One of the things I have to practice is actually facing my fears, but I agree, searching for negative articles is not a good thing! A certain other British news site was having a very bad effect on me during the first wave, hence i decided to seek out some sensible information, some actual facts, saw Fergus's balanced reporting on TV and hence found this site. HA will always give me an "interest" in medical things, I just need to manage that interest in a positive way.
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Questions, I believe the vaccine provides immunity for a year, like the standard flu vaccine. Next year we can expect (I think) to receive a new swine flu vaccine at the same time as the standard flu vaccine. I guess this might depend upon if, and to what extent, the virus changes over the period.
Just an observation on totaldilemma's comment that "My problem is that the official advice is obviously going to be from only one point of view and the counter point of view is extremely difficult to get facts rather than opinions and speculation on". The 'official advice' is not based on 'one point of view' at all, it is based on all the available data and information, properly analysed and interpreted by the country's, and the world's, leading experts. It draws on a whole range of information and leads to a concluded view on the best way forward. It is far too simple to say it just 'one point of view'. The reason that you can only find opinions and speculation on the counter point of view is because that is precisely what the other point of view is based on, namely opinion and speculation.
If you went to your GP in any other situation and he advised you to take a certain type of medication, I doubt you would think twice. There is no reason to treat the swine flu vaccination in any other way. For every medication that you take, there will be some risk of a reaction, and there will also be some article somewhere on the web advising against it because of speculation as to the potential risks.
One of the unfortunate by-products of the internet, whilst a wonderful invention, has been to provide a forum for people with little or no knowledge on a subject to masquerade as experts putting forward opinions based on little or no proper evidence. Or proper evidence but wrongly interpreted. There are plenty of example on this blog, as we all know. There is only one thing to do... ignore them. You would not go to a lawyer but reject their advice on the basis that you had read something different on the internet somewhere.
I urge everyone to ask for, and follow, the advice of their GP/nurse etc. I for one am getting the vaccine tomorrow (I am Type 1 diabetic) and will do so without any concerns whatsoever.
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181#
That's interesting they changed the article - also interesting that paragraph wasn't included on the other sites that replicated the article that i posted above
As was pointed out in a previous post. If someone wants something keeping quiet, it happens. It just depends on how high in the food chain you are. On a separate tack (although a connection has been alluded to SF) is that there are no mainstream media comments on chemical trails sprayed from aircraft. Before anyone jumps on me and says I'm confused and really mean contrails; I don't. Contrails disperse quickly, they don't last for hours and spread like clouds over a hitherto cloudless sky. Again, don't take my word for it, look at the videos on youtube. Another one of those things hidden in plain sight.
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Brian - there's no reason for you not to wear a face mask - it's entirely up to you and if it helps you feel safer then who am I to say otherwise?!
However, if it helps put your mind at rest - I am considered 'at risk' for many reasons - asthma, scarred lungs from Chicken Pox pneumonia, lung infection after seasonal flu several years ago, an autoimmune condition which has reduced my immunity dramatically. I have just nursed both my Hubby and Mum through SF and never caught it myself. I didn't wear a mask - not a conscious decision, I was just so tired and worried about them both that it never occurred to me!
It's weird how one person can catch it yet not pass it on to family members, yet total strangers can give it to each other! I expect the reasons for this are so complex that even if the experts tried there would be too many variables for them to make predictions.
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Well here's an interesting one for you all, bearing in mind that I am asthmatic, but not as severe as many.
I have just spoken to my doctor's surgery and been advised of the following:
1. They have only just received their vaccine
2. They are prioritising chronic asthmatics but I am not on the list
3. Those getting the vaccination will be chronic asthmtics who call in and are concerned about getting SF.
4. They are not, repeat not, sending out letters of invitation.
Ok, I've calmed down a little, but I am still bloomin' annoyed! They are not aware that my specialist will be vaccinating me, they have my medical records, yet I am not on the list. I can only assume that chronic asthma is not the only criteria - maybe it is the added issue of having needed steroids for it in the last 6 months. I have had steroids for my autoimmune condiion at the end of March, but that was too long ago I guess. The receptionist even sounded surprised that I am asthmatic! So much for databases!
I cannot believe that unless you have called in to express a desire to be vaccinated that you won't get a letter! That's unbelievable! I am also amazed that they have only just received their vaccine. I guess it's the problem of being a rural location, and therefore lower on the list for provision of medical services.
I wonder how many people like me don't like to make a fuss and haven't called, therefore missing their opportunity to get a vaccination. Heaven only knows when the next batch will arrive - after Christmas at this rate!
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194 ...Define-real...are you saying you think they crop strayed us with the SF from aeroplanes?????
It started in Mexico. They even know they village it started in. We saw the first few cases come in to the UK from people who had visited the region.
I really do not get why people want to find a conspiracy here. Viruses happen. Flus happen.
You might as well say aliens from outer space started it.
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Alayton81...I think you have missed Totaldilemma's point. It's the fact that not all GPs are recommending the sf vaccine that seems to be her main worry. In fact, quite a large percentage of GPs have said they would not take the vaccine themselves. I believe that is what Total finds so tricky. I don't think it's only a case of her having to discount what she has read on the net, but more the differing opinions between healthcare professionals. It's enough to throw any undecided person into confusion.
I know what I would do, but I am not the person in Total's situation, so it's irrelevant.
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sprayed I mean not strayed
Also define-real...are you suggeting they are keeping a secret from us that it might mutate?
They said that on day 1, it is getting much less negative press now and people are saying that it can't mutate (even the most negative thoughts are it is unlikely to) but the theory has never been a secret. I don't understand what you are trying to say.
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Sorry - so annoyed I didn't check my post first - my second to last paragraph should read 'express a desire to be caccinated that you won't get it' not 'get a letter'.
My bad as my daughter says!
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Tiger, it is so odd, isn't it, that something like a virus doesn't always spread right through a family? This year I haven't caught any of my son's bugs, but last year I had flu-like illnesses several times! Goodness knows why.
I'm glad your DH and Mum are much better. They were ill just before my son, and I remember rushing to my PC to re-read your posts and check their symptoms. So, thanks for posting your experiences - it helped. I'm glad you didn't catch it, with your being considered at risk.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/pandemic-what-flu-pandemic-1817715.html
Questions, this was th article I read originally and didnt post it here because of the last section on mutation. The article has completely changed at the bottom and now all it says is that there may be more deaths next year as with the flu in 68, there were still deaths in 69.
Very different to what I read, although the paradox quote is still there.
Interesting.
I recall it because it was a very positive article and I almost enjoyed reading it till I got to the last paragraph. Obviously someone else thought the same.
DR - what do you mean about the fences?
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Gillie - you make a good point there. Sometimes people have posted scary things, and seemingly without good reason. I think things of that nature should only be posted if they are constructive, but not just to be sensationalist. On the other hand, to balance it out, I do believe we shouldn't refrain from posting something that is relevant, if a little scary (not that I ever know anything before anyone else, so I'm not likely to be in that position very often!)
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Oh, just got the fences thing. lol
The chemitrails, arent they supposed to be chemicals sprayed over us all to induce headaches and other ailments to keep us pill popping and the pharma companies in money? Ive read about them. Not sure what to make of that, but suspect there is something in it. They are def spraying something.
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Tinkerdell re post 202
Thanks - I think they changed the title too so maybe that's why the link wouldn't work.
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Enlightened... thanks for that. I am an occasional poster on here so I may have missed some of the intricacies of the debate. I was not aware that some GPs are advising against the vaccine - but does anyone have any personal experience of this happening, ie a GP has said directly to someone not to have the vaccine?
Of course, a (healthy) GP saying that they themselves would not have it is not the same thing as saying they do not recommend that a particular patient should have it - if you are on the priority list, your risk factors are different and therefore the clinical advice may be different.
My point remains, each person should go to their own GP and get advice on their circumstances, if they are concerned. A GP can of course set out pros and cons, but they would be failing in their duty of care if they do not provide specific advice either way as to whether a patient should have it. And I say again, in my view the advice of your own GP is the advice to follow, not the speculation and opinion of an anonymous voice on the internet.
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I agree 100% with the post from Alan, this is the last place people should be getting advice re the vaccine.
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Sorry, just to clarify, I think on a personal basis, only your GP knows your circumstances and medical history so to make a decision based on what someone says on here is not a good idea.
There is a difference between that and trying to find out more information re the vaccine, which is what most people on here are trying to do.
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199#
No, I'm not suggesting that SF is being sprayed from aircraft, quite apart from the improbability of it surviving at 30000 feet long enogh to disperse to ground level, it's a somewhat impractical and scattergun way of artificially spreading it! I said that the practice has been alluded to be connected to the present pandemic, but I don't know how. However, I've also seen that it's being done to try and offset the effects of global warming. The chemical being sprayed has been suggested as being aluminium in a liquid suspension. Quite how the science works in such a scenario I have absolutely no idea! Just to clarify: because I'm placing links and feeds doesn't mean I subscribe to them, I'm open at all sides of any debate.
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Tinkerdell, you are absolutely right. The only addition I would make is that information with regard to the vaccine is also best obtained from your GP or, failing that, an official website such as the DoH or the HPA. Too much of the 'information' on here is in fact speculation and uninformed opinion masquerading as information. I personally would be horrified if someone made a decision not to have the vaccine based on something they had read on here (and indeed there are far worse sites out there in terms of ill-informed gossip).
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Re: Contrails/Chemtrails (very smart wording there, I have to admit) - If contrails, or condensation trails, are nothing but moisture cooling down in the rather chilly atmosphere, coming from a very hot engine, then I imagine that the rate of dispersion could be variable. The only comparison (and not necessarily a good one, just one that springs to mind) that I can make at the moment is when you are somewhat wet in colder conditions and get in your car -- your windows will go all foggy and without any help from you wiping it away, or cranking the car's ventilation system up to maximum, it's going to be there for quite some time, relatively speaking. Compare it to breathing out deliberately on a cold day -- you will form clouds that disperse almost immediately. If you crank up the scale (aeroplane engines are a tad larger than anyone's mouth or windscreen) and temperature difference (I once read that the temperature drops by ~6.5 degrees (Celsius or Kelvin) per kilometer up), some very small changes in whatever, be it temperature or humidity, could very well make a difference that lasting.
I'm actually on the fence (har har) on this one -- haven't seen enough proof either way and, to be honest, I have neither the time nor will to go and dive into the literature (debunking), the advanced Physics and Chemistry (research) or the web-comments (proving).
Therein lies the rub, doesn't it? Some views might perhaps be there because it's very difficult to explain the process in layman's terms or because it's out of one's control to effectively check. You can't 'see' mutations happen -- you only find out once they _have_ happened for example. To quote a fairly well-known phrase: Causation does not imply correlation.
In that sense, I very much understand an article I read a few months ago which likened conspiracies to religion. Both, I feel, are a way of trying to understand the world. As is putting your faith, oxymoronically, in science. (Or combining views.)
But enough of that, back to the flu, or the vaccination 'bonus' (and here's a negative way of using language, especially with the fuss about big bonuses for the bosses of companies not doing all that well -- at least over here). The Dutch GPs are paid 16 euros for two vaccinations, or 8 per vaccination. Translating a comment by a spokesman: "A GP has to call people up, give information and he also has to allot time to actually do the vaccinations. That's how we attained the 8 euro figure."
I'm not sure how long a vaccination takes on average, and that will fluctuate heavily with the amount of younger children one is using a needle on, I imagine, but with all that? And adding that to the storage comments here earlier, it's a definite possibility that it's a valid payment. It's their job too, and they're also taking time out of treating other patients to spend the entire afternoon repeating the same motion.
8 euro's is roughly 7.2 pounds at today's exchange rate, Google tells me, by the way.
I agree with the comments regarding talking to one's GP, but often, people don't feel that is enough, so, in that sense, it might be easier to ask it here (anonymity of the internet included) than to ask one's friends who may or may not share your worries.
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Fair enough, I accept that GP's will have an outlay when vaccinating, but if other surgeries are doing what mine is doing, they should be paying the patient, not the doctor! Especially as I have to call an 0845 number that covers my surgery and the one in the next village and has several menu selections once you finally get the surgery you want!
Nope - seriously stunned at what they told me today - and I'm sure I'm not the only one being told these things. Hardly putting the patient first, is it?! Only vaccinating those chronic asthmatics desperate enough for a vaccination to telephone the surgery. What about all the other top priority people? Diabetics, chaemotherapy patients, pregnant women?
I will certainly be taking my GP to task over this on Friday morning when I see him about another matter.
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Tiger: That's nothing more than male cow's feces from your GPs. Good luck with grilling them and let's hope that it's just your experience, and that it's not a norm.
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Tiger, on the NHS website a week ago it said that because of the postal strikes, GP's had been advised to contact patients that needed the injection either by phone or e mail.
Your GP obviously does not need the extra money!
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Spoke to a frined who is a GP receptionist. They have about 10% of at risk patients being called up right now excluding pregnant ones. (Over 65 at risk patients not being called up unless critically ill). I would have thought all diabetics, asthmatics & other s in this category would have been a higher percentage. They are calling all by ohone as otherwise it takes too long getting responses.
Also what's interesting is that each of their 3 surgery sites (in different villages) gets 500 doses, so overall my practice is getting 1500 doses for 10000 patients. A nearby practice on a single site with the same patient numbers is getting just 500. Seems very odd the vaccine is not being distributed per numbers of patients.
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Re post 215
Given that after the first doses are used up and will have to be re-ordered, then patients called in it would be the end of November or even December before the other 90% got vaccinated. This is a very poor show, I hope none of the risk patients get SF bad as someone would be liable.
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Hope everyone is good.
Contrails = Proven garbage. Please regulars dont even give these people the time of day. Listen to the people who have been right about every single thing not the idiots without any medical or scientific knowledge other than mike athers, infowars and prison planet.
Again, hope everyone is good
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Please read: 'BAXTER ADMITS CONTAMINATING 72 KILO VACCINE WITH BIRD FLU ON MAIN STREAM TELEVISION' ('THE FLU CASE': Wednesday, 11 November 2009'
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This is the link where I read it: http://www.theflucase.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1732:baxter-admits-contaminating-72-kilos-on-main-stream-television-&catid=41:highlighted-news&Itemid=105&lang=en
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I have included this article because some boggers do not believe it possible that a pharmaceutical company can, whether, deliberately or accidently mix with live bird flu(or any other type of flu) with either seasonal or pandemic flu vaccines.I am just showing you an article in which Baxter admitted this occurred.
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hahahahaha, i am just having a scan through the posts and now i see some of you have moved on to debate whether swine flu is being dropped by planes to infect the population. hahahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahhahahaha
oh and
hahahahahahahahahaha
NUT.JOBS
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No oliverpbessell,
I am not saying H1N1 is being dropped from airplanes. I am reporting the facts.
Secondly,the links I have provided (and other networks mentioning this)have on them interviews with members of various governments who have received a letter from Baxter's acknowledging what happened.
Thirdly,Andrew Jack,writing for 'The Financial Times' reported this in
'WHO mulls stricter transport of bio products'(16 March 2009)as did Laura MacInnis and Debra Sherman,writing for Reuters.com,in 'European lab accidents raise biosecurity concerns'(Reuters.com: 19 March 2009).
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The links to these article are at:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d7a3e3d6-1237-11de-b816-0000779fd2ac.html
and http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSLJ55693920090319?sp=true
I don't make things up.
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Perhaps you should also read this:
'Pandemic-causing 'Asian flu' accidentally released' by Debora MacKenzie (New Scientist Magazine: 13 April 2005): http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7261
'Officials investigate how bird flu contaminated vaccines in Europe' (12 November 2009) http://www.tlaxcala.es/pp.asp?lg=en&reference=7222
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217# Contrails = Proven garbage. Please regulars dont even give these people the time of day. Listen to the people who have been right about every single thing not the idiots without any medical or scientific knowledge other than mike athers, infowars and prison planet.
That's a relief, could you please point to the articles that suggest contrails/chemical trails are one and the same? Thanks.
221# That's the problem with knee jerking debunking.. The actual post isn't read. At no time was I suggesting it was the case that flu or any other virus was dropped from aircraft--I think I actually said it was unlikely, but hey, why let fact get in the way of ridicule?
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Referring to the near release of the 1957 Flu Pandemic in 2005. Do you think the BBC is more reliable than the Associated Press? Reference:
'Labs rush to destroy killer virus: ‘Unwise’ decision to send out flu strain raises pandemic fears'(MSNBC) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7480239/
The same AP article,dated 13 April 2005,and titled 'Deadly 1957 Strain of Flu Is Found in Lab-Test Kits'can be found here in 'The NY Times':
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/13/national/13flu.html?_r=1 What occurred in 2005 can also be found in 'Labs scramble to purge virus: Samples sent out worldwide traced to 1957 pandemic'on CNN and is dated 14 April 2005: http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/04/13/flu.recall/index.html This was confirmed at a CDC news conference,on Wednesday 13 April 2005,in which she stated:'"While the risk of the situation is very low, we're not taking any chances and we're doing everything we can to make sure that there is no threat to human health."'The amount of laboratories which had been sent samples numbered 4000.
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In a previous article I pointed out that 'BAXTER ADMITS CONTAMINATING 72 KILO VACCINE WITH BIRD FLU ON MAIN STREAM TELEVISION: Wednesday, 11 November 2009' http://www.theflucase.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1732:baxter-admits-contaminating-72-kilos-on-main-stream-television-&catid=41:highlighted-news&Itemid=105&lang=en
This was to show you (whether you believe it or not)that Baxter's have admitted that 72kg of live H5N1 Bird Flu was combined with H3N2 human flu and if it had got out it would have caused an H5N1 pandemic in people. See also:'Contaminated vaccines and lobbying companies
PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY WHY NOT MAKE WARRANTIES?' http://www.tvn24.pl/12690,1627989,0,1,skazone-szczepionki-i-lobbing-koncernow,wiadomosc.html This article also has a video link.
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The latest figures for UKRAINE, which include both INFLUENZA,RESPIRATORY DISORDER and PNEUMONIA are: TOTAL: 1,192,481 people infected;47,410 adults including 378 pregnant women(and dilli?)as well as 22,583 children up to the age 18. Hospitalized:62,462(total),41(needing artificial pulmonary ventilation),2395(adults),141(pregnant women and dilli)and 1894(children up to age 18).213 dead including 24 pregnant women in the past day.
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To set the record straight - what I should have said was the WHO in
'Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Ukraine - update 1: 3 November 2009'had informed the WHO it had 'now recorded more than 250,000 cases of influenza-like illness, with 235 patients requiring intensive care. As of 2 November, 70 deaths from acute respiratory illness have been reported.'
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_03/en/index.html My reference to believing most cases might be H1N1 is because the WHO has stated H1N1 will be the dominant flu this year. Secondly,the WHO quoted the Ukrainian Ministry of Health which referred to 250,000 cases of influenza-like illness. I-L-I is associated with H1N1.(Please correct me if I'm wrong Fergus).
Actually, I have checked and I did say the Ukrainian Ministry of Health reported that 969,247 people had flu-like-illness to which I added (as my own opinion)could possibly be H1N1. I also reported that the number had increased in less than a day from 969,247 people infected to
1,031597 people infected.I also stated that the people of Ukraine were suffering from a haemorrhagic pneumonia which might be linked to this. I based this on the fact some people with H1N1 did display the haemorrhagic pneumonia and because it was occurring in the same places as the H1N1 /PANDEMIC I-L-I.
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Contrails/Chemtrails. One spelling error. I apologise. Jeez.
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Concerning what I have written this morning - all I did was give you evidence about what nearly happened in 2005 with the 1957 Flu Pandemic and what happened earlier this year with H5N1. If you don't want to believe me or the websites or Baxter's or the CDC or the WHO that is up to you.
If you don't want to wear a facemask that's up to you.
I would be very interested to read the results not only of H1N1 in the countries around the world but also I-L-I as a result of / connected to H1N1 as it seems (sorry if I'm mistaken)that many people believe that I-L-I /pneumonia are not usually connected to H1N1 and from what I have read the opposite is true.
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230# Contrails/Chemtrails. One spelling error. I apologise. Jeez.
I knew what you meant Skyonfire. My response wasn't in relation to your typo. My response was to your aggressive reponse to what the original query was. If you don't believe (or wish to believe) that trails other than the natural exhaust of turbines at high altitude are being made in the sky, that is you're prerogative. It doesn't however mean it isn't happening. What their purpose is, who knows?
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