Trendspotting
Isn't that an intriguing opinion survey in The Times, suggesting that the SNP may have regained a narrow lead over Labour, their main rivals for Holyrood support?
The observant among you will have noticed the cautious tone in the above lines: "may", "suggesting".
Those of us who lived through the 1992 General Election exit poll developed and have maintained an intuitive caution towards such tests of public opinion.
So why do I mention this poll when I have not mentioned other surveys indicating a Labour lead?
Because the very nature of the apparent switch will, of itself, affect the election preparations.
It will energise the SNP campaign, providing an external stimulus to a team reliant, until now, upon internally generated confidence.
Further, it will remind the Labour campaign that they can take nothing for granted. Not, I suspect, that they needed much reminding.
Health warnings
These effects are despite the health warnings which attach to all polls - including this one by Ipsos MORI with a sample size of 1,000, conducted between 10 and 13 February.
Those warnings? Polls are just that: samples, snapshots. On this sample size, they carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Further, individual polls can be "rogue", remote from trend. They can, in short, be wrong. Perhaps badly wrong.
But they may be right. They may be partly right. They may be the first indication of an emerging trend.
That level of uncertainty argues for caution in interpreting polls: particularly an individual survey and, even more particularly, one which appears to depart markedly from the trend elsewhere.
Still, the findings will be eagerly scanned in sundry campaign HQs.
Intriguing, no more, no less.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~34~RS~)
I'm 
© 2012
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The Scotsman,Daily Record,Sun,Herald and most of all BBC Scotland News Dep are all feeling a bit sic!
All that work, and for what?
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BBC Scotland's strategy to have Labour elected as the next Scottish government is now in tatters.
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Hello Brian,
Long time no see!
Polls are pants. The only meaningful poll will be on election day. Having said that is it any surprise that the north british branch of the labour (sic) party is in trouble. We have had enough of them, their corruption, their hypocracy, their troughing, their nepotism and their awful leader and members. People DO notice these things, you know. I look forward to a full mandate to take independence forward come the election. Bring it on (as the chair of the [unionist stitch up] Scotland Bill Scrutiny committee once said.
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Since those to whom this poll applies are level headed upright individuals it will be of interest to them, no more no less,but will at least put a spring in their step this morning. The smears innuendo and downright lies would appear to have been for nothing except to expose the credibility trustworthiness and ability of those who have who made them but also those who helped perpetuate them over the last four years I wonder how many will now feel able to at last tell the truth about the appalling record of those they have praised and lauded at every opportunity
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Brian,
Are you the only one on the planet that doesn't know that the SNP have always been ahead.
Labour have taken so much away from Scotland over the years that they will never be forgiven.
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Brian,
"Isn't that an intriguing opinion survey in The Times, suggesting that the SNP may have regained a narrow lead over Labour, their main rivals for Holyrood support?"
Yes indeed.
And isn't it intriguing that there is no report of the actual poll numbers on the BBC website? Nor was there on Newsnicht, with Brewer suggesting it may be a blip. Of course the numbers may change, but the Labour party are clearly not quite the shoe-in suggested by all of the MSM.
For reference, the numbers courtesy of UKPR were:
Holyrood constituency: CON 13%(nc), LAB 36%(-5), LDEM 10%(-1), SNP 37%(+6)
Holyrood regional: CON 13%(+1), LAB 33%(-3), LDEM 13%(+4), SNP 35%(+3), Greens 6%.
The numbers in brackets are the change from MORI's previous survey in mid-November.
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The observant amongst you will have noticed that
a) An opinion poll putting the Northern British Parish Branch of UK Labour ahead is immediately hailed by the BBC as incontrivertible evidence that the Gray Man will be waving to the population of a grateful North Britain from the steps of Bute House on May 6th and the headline "SNP FAILURE" is splashed everywhere.
b) An opinion poll putting the SNP Ahead (actually, showing a massive increase in SNP Support since the last poll as well by the way) is hailed by the BBC as being, "here, hey, wait a minute, that can't be right can it ? Must be dodgy. Lets tell you why this poll is nonsense."
When does News becone Spin ? When does Northern British Parish Branch of UK Labour Spin become News ? Is there any recognition of the difference between the two at Pacific Quay ?
Poor, Brian. Very Poor. But nice to see the blog open again.
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"Further, it will remind the Labour campaign that they can take nothing for granted. Not, I suspect, that they needed much reminding."
labour have lived the past fifty years taking Scotland for granted, but now the people have caught on.
Ian Gray is a joke, completely unfit to run a whelk store.
labour’s raison d’être now appears to be to bolster the union, what an unattractive prospectus for the voters of Scotland.
labour, the tories little helpers!
C McK
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As inferred above, the wisest approach would be not to read too much into these polls, or take too literally what, after all, are merely sample snapshot figures.
Should this example prove a true indicator of a wholly jusifiable trend in Scottish voting intentions, however, one may cautiously venture the following:
YA BEAUTAAAAEEEEE!!!!!!!
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Yes, it is intriguing, but apparently not enough to be mentioned on Good Morning Scotland.
No wonder folk question BBC impartiality.
Please step back and take a good long look at yourselves or face losing all respect.
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This poll goes to show, Brian, that it doesn't matter how many times you exclaim "That was a good one!" for the grayman, the people of Scotland are beginning he's either a first class hypocrite or a non-entity who is irrelevant to even his own colleagues in London.
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11."giveusascottishsix" Said: "Please step back and take a good long look at yourselves[BBC] or face losing all respect.".
Whaddya mean face ? They lost respect a long,long time ago.
Polls are polls - they come and go. Don't get too excited. However for BBC the problem is that if this IS a trend then they will all be facing "truth and reconciliation" sooner than they think.
P.S. Will I modded off for the square brackets ??
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If Brian took some time to speak with ordinary punters on the "terracings" rather than within the Directors' Box, then he would be aware of just how ashamed people are of what Labour has become.
It doesn't matter whether it is Iraq or Wrecking the Economy or MPs Expenses - people are thoroughly ashamed of what was once (pre-Tony Blair) a respected Party.
Looking at Murphy, Alexander, MolliBother et al - it is still Blairite to its core.
They can stay in Westminster.
Scotland deserves much better than Ian Grey et al.
Slainte Mhor
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Well, well, Brian, this has to be a first the EBC Scottish branch has published a wee bit about the political thoughts and possible voting intentions of the people in Scotland. This must mean that there is an election soon; now how much spin can Pacific Quay manage to produce before FMQ’s on Thursday for the Grey man?
Do you or your colleagues have bits of paper for the Grey man to hold up and wave about? or will he have a few questions about the “British Bill of Rights” no London have not agreed that he can steal their collective thunder on that one.
Mind you with “Bendy” bring it on chairing the committee looking into the revised “Scotland Bill” we can expect that for anything to benefit Scotland will be vetoed as usual.
Brian look on the bright side with Scottish unemployment coming down and British unemployment rising Scotland must be doing something right mustn’t it?
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#11 giveusascottishsix, afternoon,that moment happened a long time ago.
there is only one poll that matters but attempting to influence how that vote may or may not turn out is exactly what all these poles are about.
the first question I ask when these polls come out is WHO is paying for it??? he who pays the piper names the tune.
If you ask 100 people coming out the local Labour club it is pretty obvious what the result may be .
if you ask 100 people coming out of the SNP conference it is pretty obvious as well.
it also depends how the questions are phrased. the BBC being past masters at this by the way.
and finally I have never been asked by any of these organisations what my opinion is about anything But it appears they like to ask MSP's quite a lot. have a look at MSP's lists of interests on the Parliament's web site
Sid
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Brian,
I can well believe the swing from 2010.
2010 was a General Election year, with the Tories likely to win, and then winning, power. In such circumstances the Labour message, of "only a Labour vote will stop a Tory government" has resonance in Scotland.
That mindset held out for a period after the General Election, as UK Politics and the new Con/Dem Government retained the majority of focus.
Over the last couple of months however, focus has returned to Holyrood and the forthcoming election. Such focus was never going to be kind to Labour (no matter how hard the Scottish Media try to make it so).
In Holyrood the Tories are not feared, as the have no prospect of power, and there is no resultant block swing of tactical voting to keep them out. In Holyrood the vote is based on positivity rather than negativity. Hence the return to a more normal Scottish vote split, similar to recent years.
With focus shifting to Holyrood, anyone starting to look closely at Labour in Holyrood and comparing them with the SNP Scottish Government is going to pick up on the stark differences.
Negative versus Positive
Self Interest versus National Interest
Closed Minds versus Vision
Opportunistic Sniping versus Competent Delivery
Richard Baker versus Kenny McAskill
Andy Kerr versus John Swinney
Jackie Baillie versus Nicola Sturgeon
and most importantly
Iain Gray versus Alex Salmond
The more the focus moves onto Holyrood the more the SNP position will improve.
The Scottish Electorate are proving to be more sophisticated than many politicians and journalists give them credit for, and the Emperor's New Clothes act regarding the capabilities of Iain Gray's Holyrood Labour group has been rumbled.
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# 14
Too true, people will remember Iraq - labour's shame!
C McK
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being a regular reader of your blog Brian, I have never understood your positive comments about Ian Gray. Sure, from one week to the next he may get better than his last performance, but come on... in general poor Ian just isnae up to the job. I have been a labour man for most of my life, although had a flutter with the Greens last time round (I know, I know... but I was scunnered with the Iraq war and other blatent lies by a party I have been loyal too for decades). But facts is facts. The thought of Ian being the next First Minister of Scotland will make our nation's already wobbly reputation unsustainable. The big trouble is that the Labour leadership have just not invested enough committement in devolution to put in place quality candidates and the result is we are now stuck with a collection of half baked, community cooncillor level candidates who I personally wouldn't let run the local cat and dog home. The thought of voting for the SNP would be difficult for me, but I had to grudgingly admit the cake stand conosur Salmond has more gravitas in his pinkie than the entire Scottish labour front bench. I'll probably no vote in the end, or plump for a local independent instead, but i cant help thinking scottish labour could do a lot better than serve Ian and his associates up.
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And isn't it intriguing that there is no report of the actual poll numbers on the BBC website?
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And isn't it intriguing that commenters on this blog more than almost any other I have seen waste no time, whatever the story or analysis, to implicitly and explicity condemn the BBC(often while complaining about how the BBC won't let them do so)? At least this time the point about the poll numbers is objectively accurate.
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Reading these comments seems to tell us that most are saying the BBC Scotland is biased we don't want Gray so what sort of % that works out at.Brian we do know that it is only one poll but have the grace to admit the SNP have done a good job in the last four years when you consider the cards were all stacked against them,when are you and the rest going to start asking awkward questions of Gray like why he voted against the Budget when the SNP offered them all they asked for.
*Gus O'Donnell did not redact much, but specifically redacted all mention of Mr Megrahi's medical details for reasons of data protection.
*As the above states Brian and Baker was asking for the release of medical records,why don't you ask him about this,not to hard a question surely.
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Brian,
Why is this story not being covered on the BBC news website?
Oh and whilst I’m on, why is it that the Big Debate show did not feature any question about the Labour party shenanigans over the release of Megrahi?
Perhaps it was featured in the last 5 minutes but as the programme is cut off for the local Aberdeen news (even when the programme is coming from Aberdeen?).
The next time you are in the North East, perhaps you could get out of the city and into the shire; if only to possible avoid questions about union Street gardens.
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I for one am not surprised at this poll, ipsos mori are one of the few that do a fairly regular poll, with both a usable sample and questions specifically about Holyrood voting intentions. Looking at the trends over the last 18 months one thing they have consistently shown is the SNPs share holding up at about the level they polled in 2007, it should also be remembered that the timing of the poll was just after the Megrahi story of Labour duplicity, bearing in mind that most other polls (especially Yougov) have tended to be subsets and question on Westminster voting intention, then perhaps we should not be surprised. Given that as the date for Holyrood voting approaches people will tend to look more closely at their voting intentions, their is history of people voting differently in the two elections then we should not be surprised. Recent reports of infighting in Labour in Scotland then perhaps they knew this as well.
It is to be hoped that people will continue to concentrate on the matters in hand and ask themselves who they would rather have, who is best placed to take forward the governance of Scotland. There is also something about the accumulated effect of so much negativity from Labour, with short term advantages perhaps displaying a lack of a coherent strategy, soundbites are all very well but many people prefer the calm rationale approach, the approach that has been the mark of this government.
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Brian when are you going to have A Salmond v I Gray on a live debate on TV could be very interesting,mind you fair questioning for both no favouritism to Gray.
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This comment is awaiting moderation would be a step up for BBC Scotland!
I gave you this comment a few hours ago, and you couldn'y even upload it to your 'this comment is awaiting moderation' version of pravda.
Try again:
"Brian,
You are right that one swallow does not a summer make. But it is surprising, to say the least, that you don't at least acknowledge that your intrigue deserves some further reflection on why it might be that so many people appear to have swapped their vote.
I'd tend to agree with ross_shire_lad, the possibility of Iain Grey becoming First Minister must be causing a lot of soul searching amongst floating voters. And not in a positive way for the North British Branch of the Labour Party."
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Tactics, tactics please oh please Scots electorate just dinnae go and dae a stupid thing and give hope tae ony CONDEMS north of Hadrians wa! I'm sure they'll be some monster raving loonies tae choose fae.....
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A Westminster GE last year in which Scottish issues were sidelined in Scotland by the media,followed by the Tories back in government,inevitably gave Scottish Labour a boost in the poll ratings for the latter half of 2010.The electorate are now refocusing on Scotland and will now compare the SNP's good and honest go at governing with Labour hypocrisy(Megrahi),obstructiveness(minimum pricing)and bullying(Scotland Bill).
The Scottish Labour vote probably remains fairly soft,with little evidence to say otherwise.
Cameron is crafty and chances are middle England will keep on happily voting in Tory/Lib Dem coalitions from now on.And Tory Prime Ministers will hold sway over Scotland entirely by the courtesy of Labour.There is an alternative which would have Scotland using her natural resources to tackle her UK induced social problems and move forward with confidence as an independent member state of the European Union.
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Why are all sensible Scots deserting the New Old Labour party in their droves?
Are they not impressed by the calibre of wee Ricky Baker or Big Healthy Jackie or Andy "PFI" Kerr?
Personally, I think tha Alex Massie analyses it rather well in today's Spectator Magazine.
As and educated and impartial observer, Mr Massie says ......
" .......frankly, the idea of Iain Gray - he's the leader of the Labour party in Scotland - becoming First Minister is too depressing to contemplate ......."
Now Brian - is Mr Massie wrong?
Surely it can't just be BBC Scotland that keeps bigging up the Grey Man of Scottish politics?
Slainte Mhor
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Here's another one you can ask Brian.
One Labour MSP is quoted as saying: “What we should have done, given that we got most of what we wanted, was to say that while the budget was still imperfect, we would vote for it and be seen to put the national interest before the party interest …
“… That would have been the mature thing to do. Iain was not driving the ‘No’ vote. Instead he allowed himself to be led by immature voices in the shadow cabinet – he let it run.”
John Rowan who worked for Gordon Brown until last year's election, has written to Iain Gray and Richard Baker, describing the party's stance on justice as "knee-jerk" and said there was "unease" within the Labour Party.
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Westminster Labour's new Shadow cabinet will be the downfall of Labour in Scotland.
Only 3 welterweight Scottish politicians in the Milliband Shadow Cabinet with Milliband increasingly at odds in both tempo and vision for Scotland compared with the SNP.
Prominent Scottish politicians, even in opposition - are an advertisement for the party they represent. No Darling, No Browne, No Brown, No Reid, No Cook.
Just 3 nobodies that have barely made a dent in the Con Dem Govt. I include the thin, ill man shadowing defence.
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All the caveats about over-reliance on such polls aside, what is interesting about this one is both the size of the swing to the SNP and the fact that it is at the expense of the British Labour & Unionist Party. One might reasonably have expected that the SNP would, at this early stage, have been picking up votes from LibDem voters disaffected by the treachery of their party's leadership.
If these polls are any use at all it is for providing a tentative indication of trends. And the indication her is of a trend which, if continued, would be a pretty remarkable achievement for the SNP.
Another point that is worth making, I think, is that such swings can have either positive or negative causes. It can be a case of people moving away from party. Or it can be a case of people moving towards a party. Most frequently, it will be some combination of the two. My feeling in this case - and it is no less subjective than that sounds - is that this particular swing is more towards the SNP than away from the British Labour & Unionist Party. I think increasing numbers of people are impressed by the SNP's performance in government.
It is often said that elections are lost rather than won. In May we might see the exception that proves this rule. We may see a government re-elected on merit rather than a government dumped because of its failures. How refreshing!
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It will energise the SNP campaign, providing an external stimulus to a team reliant, until now, upon internally generated confidence.
Internally generated ... by going out and asking the people, not by ticking boxes for all postcodes starting with G as being Labour certainties.
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31. spagan
"As and educated and impartial observer, Mr Massie says ......
" .......frankly, the idea of Iain Gray - he's the leader of the Labour party in Scotland - becoming First Minister is too depressing to contemplate .......""
I would say horrifying rather than merely depressing. The combination of a British Labour & Unionist Party government with Gray as FM combined with the fiscal and constitutional implication of the abominable Scotland Bill could set Scotland back by decades.
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Nice to see your blog open again Brian. For a while there I thought YOU had been moderated off. :)
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The idea that people are coming round to Iain Gray's lack of anything approaching gravitas, leadership or over-all grasp of current concerns in Scotland is both gratifying and disappointing.
There are countless other far more compelling reasons to not vote Labour come May the 5th. I'm sure the SNP will take what they can get but Iain Gray's weedy voice and lack of a grasp of the issues is the very tip of the labour iceberg on which the good ship Scotland might find itself impaled in 80 odd days time.
That turned into a not bad simile, or is it a metaphor...
Mmm?
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# 35. At 3:46pm on 16 Feb 2011, you wrote:
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Hi Brian,
It looks like the moderators have collective toothache today.
Regarding your report on the latest poll, apparently it is "off topic" to explain to you why a traditional Labour voter, me, will vote SNP this time. Everything to do with the quality of the labour front bench, I assure you.
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Re Post 31,
Another blog site makes the suggestion that 'real' insiders within the Labout party of Westminster in Scotland, have already considered replacing the hapless weegreyman, and that Labour failed strategist 'weebrownbagsbendywendy' is in charge of that review!!
Interesting to note that while our Brian hides under his 'it's the trend safety blanket', this is, in fact, the first poll commissioned since the recent shambolic performances of messrs 'weegreyman' and 'rickey'i'mcallingyou'baker' on the latest revelations over the Megrahi affair.
The greatest asset the SNP has is the 'weegreyman' and all his incompetent, hingers on.
Brian, understand this: the Scottish people lead this debate not the EBC and even overtired, out of touch 'Arab' supporters!!
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Trendspotting.
As the election draws ever closer the body politic will begin to closely examine both Alex Salmond and Iain Gray. From these assessments they will decide who is best placed to take Scotland forward.
Based on that close examination I expect Iain Gray to be replaced as leader following a defeat at the Scottish elections.
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Scotland should be aware that the westminster based labour party only look upon the scottish parliment election as a stepping stone, to them regaining power in westminster, the block scottish vote is all they care about.
The consensus on this site is rightly sure that an independant scotland is the best way forword, but I feel we are missing a more public platform for these discusssion to take place, our beliefs are met by an unfair bais in the scottish media, a political program such as a scottish question time would allow relatively free discussion, but would they dare.
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Brian,
"They may be the first indication of an emerging trend."
I would suggest that your blog is the first indication of an emerging trend, if you ever took the trouble to read it. No union support whatsoever these days. No bbc support whatsoever these days. No labour (north british branch (Scotland region)) support whatsoever.
The Scotland Bill [an Invoice from westminster]
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Just received a mailshot from Ed Milliband with a booklet inviting suggestions for Labour Party priorities. Any thoughts on how I should respond?
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Will Brian Souter's offer to match SNP supporters' contributions have taken a dent with the news that Stagecoach's New York JV falls foul of anti-trust.
I think the tie-up will cost the SNP more votes than it wins them. If Souter wanted to support the party, fine; for the party website to be promoting the matching offer as an incentive to supporters is sufficient for me to withhold my support from the SNP at all future elections for as long as Salmond is leader!
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A one-off poll suggests that the SNP are doing better than many believed. Enjoy it folks! Have a drink! Just for once, never mind that this little thing isn't splashed across the nation's media.
In recent weeks Celtic FC and Tommy Sheridan, quite separately, have assured us that it's all a conspiracy and the world is out to "get" them.
The world, therefore, is far too busy to be bothered with the SNP. Just enjoy your poll, eh?
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#46
The contempt British Labour have for Scotland should be evident when you consider how they put forward proposals to changing how Scotland is governed immediately after losing power at Holyrood.
This contempt was carried on long after Tony Blair left office - when Broon refused to sanction immediate reforms and instead dithered on until he was finally ousted by the Tory's and power-eager Liberals.
Where does that leave Scotland? In the clutch and peril of the Conservative Party! A Conservative Party intend on wreaking havoc with a country it is an endangered species in!
Those betrayals alone should put any right minded voter off Labour for good.
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Concerning Al Megrahi, the Labour Party put the interests of the UK before the interests of Scotland. That the Scots in the Labour party - Brown and Murphy conspired in this is unforgiveable. The lesser players, Gray and Baker were used it does appear by Brown and Murphy, whether knowingly or not.
What Gray and Baker did know was that compassionate release is a facility in Scots Law and they,representatives within the Scottish Government, argued against the Government's decision once taken rather than show national solidarity in the face of criticism from the USA. Baker worse still, rather than stand and support the democratic decision of his country actually invited US senators to work with him to discredit his country's government.
I consider them unworthy of involvement in Scottish poilitics.And maybe this poll indicates that to be the view of the Scottish people.
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48. Upper Britain - The Bit with the Brain
"Will Brian Souter's offer to match SNP supporters' contributions have taken a dent with the news that Stagecoach's New York JV falls foul of anti-trust."
Most people will have sense enough to realise that Souter's donation is personal and does not come from Stagecoach. And they will also have sense enough to realise that, in the system created and maintained by the Westminster machine, political parties have to be financed by corporate and private donations. Much as they may disapprove of this system, and much as they may dislike some of the donors, they recognise that there is little choice for any party but to manage as best it can within the system as it is until such time as it can be changed.
Another thing that the more realistic among us will be aware of is that, however unpalatable his views on certain topics may be, Brian Souter is a free citizen of our democracy and perfectly entitled to donate to any political party as he wishes.
Evidently, the British Labour & Unionist Party are particularly upset that someone else is benefiting from the support of wealthy business persons.
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49. At 5:32pm on 16 Feb 2011, brigadierjohn wrote:
You relax, have a drink, and read up on your conspiracy theories.
The world and the SNP will just get on fine. But keep the
drinking sensible there's nay minmum unit price tae help ya.
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The apparent large swing in the Ipsos-Mori poll isn't surprising when you think of it as the Scots electorate turning their attention away from Westminster to Holyrood.
The satisfaction ratings with the party leaders are notable. In the following table, the overall rating is shown first (with that of their own party in brackets)
Answer, Salmond, Gray, Goldie, Scott
Satisfied, 51% (83%), 33% (58%), 32% (58%), 26% (54%)
Dissatisfied, 35% (12%), 34% (18%), 30% (22%), 34% (26%)
Don't Know, 14% (5%), 33% (24%), 38% (20%), 40% (20%)
Net Satisfied, 16% (71%), -1% (40%), 2% (36%), -8% (28%)
Normally, parties would hope that the campaign would mean people thinking more favourably of their leader. It's difficult to see how that would help in Iain Gray's case.
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45. cnoccnoc
There was a fairly regular political question time show in the late eighties on BBC Scotland called 'Scottish Questions'.Usually it was chaired by Kirsty Wark.Now,when 'Question Time' makes the occasional visit over the border,David Dimbleby decrees that Scottish issues are not to be discussed and takes a no doubt planted question on some London-centric issue.
49. brigadierjohn
"The world,therefore,is far too busy to be bothered with the SNP."
Haven't you heard?Invoking the Scottish cringe doesn't work anymore.
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#21
Welcome to the fold Jimitis.
A succinct & concise run-through regarding Grey - I wish I met more (former?)Labour voters like you - then I wouldn't have had this skewed opinion of them all being dyed in the wool narrow minded zealots.
If I may proffer a question - what is it about the SNP specifically that you dislike enough not to vote for them?
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Oh c'mon you Nats. Brian isn't that bad.
Last month a poll in "The Times" suggested that Labour were on-course to have an overall majority in Holyrood. (Due to the machinations of Jack-the-zip McConnel and Wendy-bring-it-on Alexander it is virtually impossible for any one party to have a majority in Holyrood).
I can't remember the figures of either Labour or SNP what I do remember is that 36% (yes, thirty six percent) of those questioned either expressed no prefference, said they wouldn't vote, or just point blank refused to answer.
It makes you realise that maybe the Beeb isn't so biased after all.
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#55 reincarnation
Re satisfaction levels, I think the key is in the relative satisfaction levels shown in the MORI details available here.
Between mid November and mid February, dour Iain's net satisfaction rating went down from a modest +5 to a less populist -1. During the same period, net satisfaction with the FM went down very slightly from +17 to +16.
This period, you'll recall covered the snow problems, Tesco tax votes, budget setting and revelations regarding the UK Labour govt's Megrahi policies, all of which were spun by the MSM as anti-SNP stories.
Clearly some people outside Holyrood do think for themselves.
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#44
Based on that close examination I expect Iain Gray to be replaced as leader following a defeat at the Scottish elections.
Yes but by who? Which Labour front bencher has the leadership qualities, the charisma and above all, the policies to lead Labour?
I'm not being funny here. It's a serious question. In the other parties inc the SNP there are people that I could see running those parties if their current leader stepped down. But Labour?
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I don't mind Mr Souter at all and I just sent a few bob to a political party for the first time ever.
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#49 - "The world, therefore, is far too busy to be bothered with the SNP. Just enjoy your poll, eh?"
Your first post here in over 2 months and that's it? Bitter much? Although, I take the clarion call has went out and we'll soon be inundated with new members all claiming how most excellent the grayman really is, how full of gravitas and wisdom his spouting are, how much of an economic genius Kerr is (despite him rejecting 25,000 apprenticeships, preferring 10,000 youth placements instead), how safe we will be once wee baker locks up all the bad men and throws away the keys, how long lived we'll be once Baillie (yet again) abdicated her responsibilities and asks Westminster to fix things for us, eh? Look out for the reluctant one turning up soon too.
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Can I lend my support to AlastairGordon and invite my fellow cybernats to be a bit more gentle with Mr Taylor? When he says "So why do I mention this poll when I have not mentioned other surveys indicating a Labour lead?" he is telling the truth: he really hasn't been spinning those polls on this blog. Mind you he hasn't needed to join the band with the raucous "Rule Britannia" going on from elsewhere. As to the poll, yes, it's encouraging. But it is just a poll and what it will do is goad the union-nits and their pet media to new depths of dastardliness. The encouraging thing is the "internally generated confidence" to which Mr Taylor refers, and which is founded on a good bit more than one poll of 1,000 people, however upbeat.
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so maybe it's me lads [and lasses if you are of that particular make] but I find the pace of politics in Scotland works at lightening pace.
last night we had an eminent professor of politics discussing how the lead in the voting intensions from a sample of 1000 soles was in favour of the ruling party in the land and its summary was 'maybe a blip, maybe it is true, it will take time to pan out ... etc'.
as another well known manny from these parts might have said 'the snp are in the lead - maybees aye, maybees no'
and yet a mere 24 hours earlier was it the same professor of politics I saw on the same program [newsnicht Alba] stating that the main opposition party in the land were so far out of sight that they could be contemplating an outright majority and playing with figures in the mid 60's range for seats.
even by modern standards, to lose that much ground in the duration of a day is going some. are the guinness book of records looking into this.
i wonder what statistical data he was using to base his assumptions on the landslide lead the first night. had there been a recent survey that had given the leading opposition party such a lead. i find it strange that we never heard anyhting about the results. we obviously know that he had a set of figures for the second night.
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As someone who is neither an SNP voter nor a Labour voter (I'm an unreconstructured socialist), I am relieved that we have a poll which contains findings at odds with what has become the middle-class orthodoxy recently for some reason, namely that Labour will gain most seats in May.
Upon what evidence is that view based? Wishful thinking Although I accept that this country's antipathy to the Tories might lead some towards Labour at a UK level, why on earth would anyone choose Scottish Labour/Gray over SNP/Salmond? Which wing does the odious Richard Baker represent? Certainly not any part of the Labour Party I have been aware of previously and certainly not recognisable as the same party represented by Cathy Jamieson when she was Justice Minister. Gray is a weak point - always a problem in a leader - but Baker is the real Achilles heel. Mind you, Kerr and Baillie are not too much further up the leg.
I would love to see a socialist Scotland and none of the parties will deliver that. But it's clear that only Alex Salmond possesses the gravitas and nous to represent Scotland on the domestic and international stage.
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#47. Choosedayschild wrote:
"Just received a mailshot from Ed Milliband with a booklet inviting suggestions for Labour Party priorities. Any thoughts on how I should respond?"
respond in a like for like fashion. i emailed the northern branch on the 8th january about a policy statement on their webpage and am waiting for a reply. i did get back to them to remind them i was promised a reply from their automated reply system saying i could send them a copy of the original question. they did get back and say 'ok, could you send us it again'. that was on the 8th february. still waiting.
suggestion. wait at least 5 weeks and ask what the question was again
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#48. Upper Britain - The Bit with the Brain
you raise the issue of souter costing the snp votes.
ok, i'll see your souter with labour party expenses problems hitting the court and raise you iraq and funding from abroad.
i was nice and gave you 3 to your 1 coz i think there are more available against rather than for.
how many votes do you think these will cost labour.
no need for numbers - easy enough to say more, less or the same
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dear me, the mods don't seem to like me today, how will I survive!
My point is simple, labour and elmer bad for Scotland!
bendy Wendy's Scotland bill is bad for Scotland, labour doing the con dems job for them.
Alex and co demonstrate a level of integrity in what they do, haven't done badly as a government and should be given another go, if only to save us from the west central Scotland subdivision of the non league north British labour party
today is the beginning of the end for 50 years of labour mismanagement and failure
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@49 brigadier
Good isn't it!
Their will be another one along in a minute...lol
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Choking a bit there, Brian? Let me slap you on the back..... no need for panic - yet.
This is only a poll of 1000 persons unknown. Perhaps a wake up call for those who considered that Labour had it virtually done and dusted.
There's a long way to go yet, and plenty of opportunities for surprises - like maybe a late change in the Dear Leader of Labor? If not his actual replacement, perhaps his attitude should he desire to still be the Leader in June. Will another candidate emerge, or maybe a Bosman from Westminster?
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#67. At 8:58pm on 16 Feb 2011, smashthebnp wrote:
"Gray is a weak point - always a problem in a leader - but Baker is the real Achilles heel. Mind you, Kerr and Baillie are not too much further up the leg."
I fear I must disagree - Kerr and Baillie are much farther up, positively buttockward in fact.
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#72 - "If not his actual replacement, perhaps his attitude should he desire to still be the Leader in June."
Perhaps a sacrificial lamb would be sufficient, say the jettisoning of wee baker. It would go some way towards making his cabinet more palatable to the voter.
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49. brigadierjohn
Those large pips on your shoulders must be getting rather burdensome whilst sipping your gin and tonic as you watch the sunset sink for the last time on those empire days of yesteryear, rule....
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Maybe the poor figures for labour have something to do with the atrocious Scotland Bill that the unionists are jointly trying to impose on us through a westminster sleight of hand.
Tax raising "powers" for the Scottish Government. That's a joke. They can "raise" about a third of the tax take, but whatever they raise will be removed from the Barnett formula block grant. And they'll charge us £45m to set up the necessary systems to control the Scottish tax, and about £7m a year to administer it. Hmmm. Let me just add that up.. It's a stitch up.
Then we have the attempted decimation of the Scottish Law system. Trying to make it subservient to the westminster supreme court. This is a constitutional issue. Let me just think about that proposal for a minute. Nope, I do not want my sovereignty as a Scottish citizen usurped by westminster. If westminster tries to impose this on Scotland I for one shall be protesting vociferously.
Add to the Scotland Bill Wendy Alexanders conduct at the "scrutiny" committee, Jim Devine convicted for fraud, the Megrahi hypocrisy, Stephen Purcell, the Strathclyde Partnership for Transport scandal, and then lastly the leader-ship; or should that be a canoe? On a brown river and without a paddle.
What surprises me is that they are still polling above the libdems.
Truly sad, as the labour party was one that I had respect for once upon a time.
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ForteanJo #74
I hope they don't get rid of the Fabulous Baker Boy, he's one of our best assets.
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48. Upper Britain - The Bit with the Brain
"I think the tie-up will cost the SNP more votes than it wins them."
Can you elaborate as the 3 main unionist parties get funding from very large supermarkets, very rich friends in the city and many very rich persons do you agree that that is fair and above board, or is your knee jerk reaction impeding reasoned thought.
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Opinion polls come with a margin of error. No. Surely not. Investigative journalism at its very best here. Read all about it.
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Hope to see more polls reflecting this one. If the SNP are rightly returned to Government in May then Scotland will truly have woken up. Return of happy days.
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"The Times, suggesting that the SNP may have regained a narrow lead over Labour, their main rivals for Holyrood support? "
Does the Times own and run Ipsos MORI, I dont think so Brian.
The Times were reporting on a poll ,ffgs. get a grip.
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Brian it is actually very simple, Scotland has two choices -
1. It can vote for a Scottish Executive that will drag Scotland backwards and downwards into a deep pit of depression.
Or
2. It can vote for a Scottish Government that will lift Scotland forward and upwards to new heights.
Surely it is time for the BBC and other media outlets to get this message across, because if not then these organisations will have contributed in some way to a greater or lesser extent to the years of financial misery we will all suffer.
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Aside from their sustained hypocrisy, self-interest, and having failed to learn or contribute anything from their 4 years in Knee-Jerk Opposition, North British Labour will be further chagrined by trends such as the low rate of crime and falling unemployment in Scotland, particularly against the backdrop of rising UK figures - all of which puncture yet more holes in a Labour crusade rooted in duplicity, misrepresentation and wholesale vacuousness - leaving Gray and his deadbeat followers exposed as they have always been: desperate, negative, rudderless, and unfit to form a coherent opposition group, let alone a would-be administration in this country's best interests.
Bring it on!!!
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The big wildcard here is the betrayed Lib Dem vote. We know the LibDems are going to get humped, but are their voters going to just vote labour as a two fingers up at the tory part of the party, or are they going to stop to think before voting. If they stop to consider the issues then they'll see that voting Labour means getting a second unwanted and unpopular leader in, this time Iain Gray instead of DIY Dave.
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84. R
"We know the LibDems are going to get humped..."
And yet there is no indication of this in the poll. All of the SNP gain appears to come at the expense of the British Labour Party. I wonder if the punishing of the LibDems is yet to come. If the SNP benefits from that as well as the swing from the BLP, the result could be a bit of a shocker. All speculative, of course, but we could be looking at a vote share around the 40% mark.
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# 85 & 86
Students will punish the lying liberals en masse. Students are very important in marginal seats and it is clearly obvious that the SNP has protected them (and their families / sponsors) from the punishing and unjust financial penalties imposed on students south of the border.
The thought of a labour win in the May elections would not just fill me with dread, but complete and utter shame.
If collectively Scotland can not come up with a vision for Scotland's future that takes us forward and not backwards under labour, we will get exactly what we deserve! And, that will be -
- the feeble fifty!
- tories taking stock!
- Industries closing down
- Pipers on Euston station platform as we cap in hand
C McK
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Trendspotting.
44. Wansanshoo wrote:
Based on that close examination I expect Iain Gray to be replaced as leader following a defeat at the Scottish elections.
62. Wee-Scamp wrote:
Yes but by who? Which Labour front bencher has the leadership qualities, the charisma and above all, the policies to lead Labour?
I'm not being funny here. It's a serious question. In the other parties inc the SNP there are people that I could see running those parties if their current leader stepped down. But Labour?
Wansanshoo wrote:
I suspect regurgitation, then again, as Clark said to Vivien ” Frankly my dear, I don’t give a damn”
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Looking at the core data over on the Ipsos Mori site, the last question they asked is an interesting new one.
"At the moment, income tax is set and collected by the UK government.
Currently, the UK government is proposing a transfer of power so that some
income tax could be collected and set by the Scottish Government. Which of the
following statements comes closest to your view on this issue?"
The response was also interesting
37% - I would prefer all income tax
to be set and collected by the
Scottish government
32% - I would prefer all
income tax to be set
and collected by the UK
government, as it is at
present
27% - I would prefer some income tax
to be set and collected by the
UK government and some by
the Scottish government
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As today's Hootsmon says:
" ........But senior MSPs were admitting last night that the party's Scottish leader, Iain Gray, had failed .........."
And that's from Eddie Barnes - a staunch Grey Unionista.
Poor Iain Gray, poor New Old New Labour :)
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Again, from today's Hootsmon -
"British ambassador has accused the previous Labour government of "flagrantly contravening" United Nations resolutions over its decision to allow the Lockerbie bomber to apply for release ......"
Corrupt? Inept? Oraganised Hypocrisy? False Sanctimony?
New Labour - No wonder they are so ashamed of whay they have done!
Slainte Mhor
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Or from today's Daily Record
........ the SNP will continue to govern for Scotland, to build Scotland's economy, protect our public services, and to stand on our record of delivery and vision for Scotland's future ......
Apologies to Monty Python
But New Labour is officially a Dead Parrot
:)
Slainte Mhor
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89. soosider
"37% - I would prefer all income tax
to be set and collected by the
Scottish government"
Yet more evidence (were it needed) that the position held by the largest group of Scots is for FFA or more.
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93. reincarnation
89. soosider
Aye, and that we do not want their dreadful Scotland Bill. I think this should be made the focus of the Scotland March.
NO TO THE SCOTLAND BILL
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Ref Post92
Spagan that was very very naughty.
When I read your post I thought, "Surely not" (Actually what I thought wouldn't have got past the Moderators). There's no mainstream Scottish paper who would ever put that in as their opinion.
Although that statement was made in the Daily Record, they were in fact quoting Nicola Sturgeon.
Now please leave the out-of-context quoting to Iain Grey et al. Just now I'm wondering how badly he'll do again in about two hours time
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#80
If the SNP are rightly returned to Government in May then Scotland will truly have woken up. Return of happy days.
And optimism!!
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#78. At 10:20pm on 16 Feb 2011, cheesed_off wrote:
#48. Upper Britain - The Bit with the Brain
"I think the tie-up [Souter] will cost the SNP more votes than it wins them."
Can you elaborate as the 3 main unionist parties get funding from very large supermarkets, very rich friends in the city and many very rich persons do you agree that that is fair and above board, or is your knee jerk reaction impeding reasoned thought."
...I wonder if #48 is going to support BP (aka Magrahi) funded Labour?
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#95 AlastairGordon
"Now please leave the out-of-context quoting to Iain Grey et al. Just now I'm wondering how badly he'll do again in about two hours time"
I'm afraid you have a week to wait - see the Holyrood calendar.
I suspect dour Iain's invisibility cloak will be in operation 24x7 until then.
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#95 Alistair, sorry to disappoint you but parliament is in recess this week so no FMQ's. at least there will be no abusing of small nations and no waving of bits of paper and sadly no shots of all the nodding dogs howling away behind Mr Gray
at least our host doesn't need to appear on the telly to tell us how great Mr Gray's performance was.
Sid
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I think the SNP are doing a great job.
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#98, Barbazenzero and #99 sid_ts63
You are correct, and I'm wrong.
Now that's something you won't hear any of our politicians say)
I forgot the schools are on all holiday, so I suppose ALL children will be off work.
I usually abhor blood sports but I suppose I'll now have to wait another week before I see another unfair fight.
I didn't think AS had a very good FMQs last week, so I suppose that will give him a week to get it right, and give IG another week to get it more wrong than he usually does :-)
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Can anyone explain to me why nationlists on this blog (and on many others) are so personal and vitriolic about Labour and Iain Gray. The abuse hurled at Labour and many of it politicians in Scotland is staggering and unusual, even in British politics. Its as if the communications strategy has been written by the blogger Guido Fawkes. "Sling enough mud and some of it will stick".
I know why they do it - if you repeat something often enough, people will begin to believe it - but when I speak to ordinary people (not political anoraks), many of them have got this impression not from personal experience, but because thats "what everyone says".
At the moment, Holyrood actually gets little detailed attention compared to Westminster. The First Minister obviously gets the lion share of the general coverage. But perhaps, as the election approaches, and Iain Gray gets a chance to show that he isnt the big bad bogey-man people have been told to fear, people might he's not be the liability the SNP would have us beleive?
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John Ruddy @ 102,
Have you ever watched First Ministers Questions and come away with a glowing impression of Mr Grey?
No, not many people do.
Without, necessarily subscribing to it, he is seen as a numpty or worse. Exposure is the last thing he needs, as you well know.
It is my opinion that the man is a disaster. I'd far rather have Annabelle Goldie in charge of Scotland than that man.
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Examples Mr Ruddy??
Now , since you seem so intent on defending the Gray man ,and since he appears to be incapable,would you like to explain his stance on
a) Megrahi
b) the Scottish Government budget
and
c) the good news on Scottish jobs which is apparently ,according to him,an example of SNP timidity.
And when it comes to personal ,you won't find any more personal than the Labour spin doctors.
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#101 AlastairGordon
"I usually abhor blood sports but I suppose I'll now have to wait another week before I see another unfair fight."
Yes. For some strange reason, it often reminds me of clubbing seal pups.
I agree that last week was less so than usual, and agree that it will "give IG another week to get it more wrong than he usually does".
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102. John Ruddy
Hi John and welcome.
I think the depth of feeling among many in Scotland with regards to the labour party and its current leader comes from extreme dissappointment in a political party that used to be the party of choice in Scotland.
The labour party has done nothing good for Scotland in the last 30 years, if anything we have gone backwards. The party membership has been seen to be living off the westminster gravy train and many of them have been lining their own pockets to the detriment of the ordinary people. Not what a supposedly socialist party should be doing.
As for Iain Gray, try watching some of the Democracy Live videos of First Ministers questions at Holyrood. You'll soon find out why Gray and his baying pack of hyenas are disliked. They are utterly obstructionist in their mentality. They are also ultra unionist, and can't / won't do or say anything without checking with their masters in london. This does not go down well in Scotland. Many of us here wish to have control of our country back. We no longer wish to be ruled by westminster.
Add to these things the hypocrisy of the whole labour party over the Megrahi affair, the Afghan and Iraq wars, the destruction of the UK economy, the support of trident and now the Scotland Bill, and we are where we now are. Labour in Scotland has had its chance and blown it. Their resistence to change in Scotland will be their undoing, and they will soon end up in the same boat as the tories in Scotland. Or rather, a canoe, on a brown river and without a paddle.
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#102 John Ruddy
"Can anyone explain to me why nationlists on this blog (and on many others) are so personal and vitriolic about Labour and Iain Gray."
Have you ever watched dour Iain in action? If not, I suggest you watch a few episodes of FMQs from holyrood.tv.
I note from your BBC blog profile that you usually comment on UK rather than Scottish blogs. You really will spot the difference if you watch them in action.
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douglas_clark @103
I have seen FMQs a few times (i'm not near a TV at the time usually - like a great many others), and he's not embarrased himself, but yes, often Salmond comes off better.
However, one's performance in FMQs (or PMQs in Westminster) usually has very little to do with election performance. For instance, William Hague actually got the better of Tony Blair many times at PMQs - he bombed out at the 2001 GE.
The thing is that Iain Gray's style offers a contrast to that of Alex Salmond. And a quieter, more sober style can often be taken to be a poor one in comparison to the bluff hale and hearty style of the FM. But it might chime with the voters in these times - and vicious personal attacks arn't what politics should be about.
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Diabloandco @ 104
I will give you my opinion on those matters, but I would ask you to explain why you think that Nationalists are so personal and vicious in attacks on Labour and Iain Gray (as I notice that you are in your reply to me).
a) Megrahi
Scottish Labour cannot be both controlled by London and have a different policy from London - yet that is the SNP attack. Rather than a full release, I beleive that a release into a safe house within the community would have been prefereable - being both compasionate and serving the needs of Justice. Scottish Labour has every right to have a different policy on this to London/UK Labour - it is after all, a devolved matter.
b) Scottish Government Budget
I think it was a mistake to have voted against, and an abstention would have been better. However, You'll have noticed that I can make that comment without any personal attacks on the SNP, the Labour front bench or the facial appearance of any MSPs.
c)
The jobs news, while good, is only because the unemployment figures have dropped further in Scotland than in the rest of the UK - while they were static in England, for instance over the last 6/9 months, they have been rising in Scotland. Scotland has the lowest unemployment in the UK in 2007 - it now has the highest. While these figures are a start, they disguise the lack of focus of the SNP on protecting peoples jobs - and Scots are now worse off than they were when they took power in 2007.
There, lots of comment without needless personal attack - so how about it?
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#102
John,
First let me point out that I am NOT a nationalist in the meaning of the term that you probably employ the word. I am not sure that Independence would necessarily be the best thing for Scotland. I am not a member of any political party, nor will I ever be. To paraphrase Groucho Marx, Political parties are an institution, but who wants to live in an institution? By not being a member of a political party I am free to say what I want rather than tow-the-party-line. No political party in the country has what I believe would be a solution to all of our problems, conversely, every party has something that I can agree with.
I do believe that strong opposition is essential in a democracy, but there is a difference between constructive critisism and just being against any idea that did not emanate from your own party. Voting against a budget that gives 25,000 apprenticeships rather than the 10,000 your party wanted isn't responsible opposition, it's downright pig-headedness!
The recent Scottish budget was NOT an SNP budget, nor was it a Tory or LibDem budget - ot was an agreement between parties, so different in so many ways, who realised they lived in the real world and consequently could not get all of their pipedreams in the current finnancial situation.
I didn't believe Alex Salmond when he said recently on Newsnight Scotland that he would prefer to lead a minority Government rather than a coalition one. That was pure political posturing.
You say that if Iain Grey gets the chance he will show that he's not the 'big bad bogey-man' and you're right. He'll show himself to be the political pigmy he actually is. The U.K. Government thought so much of him that they forgot to tell him they wanted al-Megrahi released, so what else did they keep from him?
I'm afraid that the Labour Party hasn't yet realised that they have no God-given right to rule in Scotland, when they wake up to that fact they may well be able to form an effective opposition, and eventually show that they are fit to Govern, but right now they are no where near that position.
(I realise that you and others may not agree with everything - or anything- I say, but that's democracy for you.)
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95 Mr G
Mea Culpa
Imagine me thinking that the Daily Record would do anything other than blindly support New labour - no matter how awful they were for Scotland.
Slainte Mhor
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Barbazenzero @ 107
The reason I usually comment on UK stories rather than here, is its not nice suffering /reading a load of personal abuse.
As I have said elsewhere, I have seen the odd FMQ - and thats probably at least 3 more than 95% of the population of Scotland. Alex Salmond's style is well suited to the rough and tumble nature of FMQs (I suspect he'd do even better at PMQs, and its a pity he was never given a better chance when he was at Westminster). However, as I have said, performance at such events doesnt directly translate into popularity or electibility. And that a contrasting style (which some may see as inefective by comparison) is not necessarily a vote loser.
As far as I can see, the only answer to "why all the personal abuse on Iain Gray and Scottish Labour" is "well, he's not very good at FMQs". I'm afraid thats not a good answer.
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OK, this is quite annoying. I have already complained to London no less about the mere idea that comments should be pre-moderated, as that is censorship, so it is.
I have no problem with being shouted down on a web site if I am wrong. That's what you ought to get if you are wrong, and it doesn't require moderation, it requires reasonable people to point out your stupidity.
I would have no problem with pre-moderation - an Orwellian concept - if I was arguing for violence against minorities. Or being ridiculously fascistic. The joke is that it is censorship for it's own wellbeing. It has nothing to do with me, it has to do with the BBC pretending that I am dangerous, when I am clearly not.
The point about a forum, such as this, is that all points of view that don't fail the tests of equality or fascist agendas ought to be allowed, especially the more ridiculous ones. For we can all extract their stupidity and deal with it.
It is verging on ridiculous how protective of something other than free speech is being promulgated as a reasoned case for censorship here or hereabouts.
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# 109
Mr Gray is out of his depth, he is a national embarrassment.
His party have and continue to sell Scotland down the river, kill off any innovative new ideas and are utterly obsessed by union at any price.
Many nationalist in the past were sympathetic to the left side of labour, thinking it would only be a matter of time before this left side of labour drifted from unionist to nationalist camps.
Sadly, the gradualist approach of the nationalists has failed and labour have not only become right wing, but also keen monarchists and lap dogs of the US.
You need to live in Scotland to get an appreciation of how far labour have fallen, but what is inexcusable, is that labour wish to take the people of Scotland with them on this downward trajectory.
If you get the opportunity watch labour politicians like Jackie Bailley, Richard Baker and Helen Eadie, if you think these people have the interests of Scotland at heart, please get back in touch on this site.
C McK
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#109 John Ruddy
Fair point about making constructive argument without personal attack.
However, Gray has already declared his attention to "get personal" against Alex Salmond, has indulged in it many times, and - despite claims to the contrary by his wife in a recently contrived Sunday Mail article - clearly won't hesitate to do so if he thinks it will gain him an extra vote.
On Megrahi, Labour's postured position was exposed as just that from the outset, not least in that it was widely known that UK Labour were pulling out the stops to get Megrahi released to boost strategic and commercial interests, while at the very same moment their Scottish branch was jumping into bed with the Tories and Lib Dems to "shame" the decision.
Hardly a stance with a shred of principle or purpose other than opportunism for dubious self interest, and proof if such were needed that whenever they try to adopt a position apart from their London masters, New Lab Scottish Branch are invariably exposed as a clueless and leaderless rump.
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#112 John,
What you might have noticed is the frustration amongst many that in Scotland the opposition only opposes. There is no attempt at constructive criticism. This is bad for the country.
John
ps. if you want real, unmodorated abuse, try giving a Scottish persppective on a scottish issue on a UK blog.
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Calum McKay @ 114
As it happens, I DO live in Scotland. Your post shows aspects of the SNP argument that "you can't be a true Scot unless you vote SNP" attitude.
I have also seen politicians like Jackie Baillie, Richard Baker and Helen Eadie - and many others from all parties and from none. The vast majority of them are doing things because they believe that those measures will make Scotland better. I dont think there is anyone who wants Scotland to go on a downward trajectory - not even the tories. I might think that their policies would do so - but that is a different matter.
Has anyone thought that the real reason why there are so few Labour voices on blogs such as this - and other websites, is not that Laboru supporters are "ignorant stupid idiots" or "fools who would vote for a monkey with a red rosette" but are simply fed up of the foul abuse that their politicians and they themselves receive? If you were to take an opinion poll of the online commentators, the SNP would have a landlslide victory come May - this is an unrepresentative self-selecting sample.
Colin, give me a good reason to come back here - and one that doesnt involve the words "so we can give you a good verbal kicking"
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Addicted to Joob-Joobs @ 115
And if Iain Gray attacks Alex Salmond (or indeed any other politician) in the same personal way in which he has been attacked, then I will be among the first to condemn him for it. However, attacking him on the basis that he is personally responsible for the failings of his Government is quite legitimate.
As it happens, I (and I'm sure many others in the Labour party and elsewhere) beleive that such personal attacks can prove counter productive where it doesnt chime with the listeners established view. However, if you repeat a lie often enough, then there is a chance it will be believed if it is not contradicted. Thats a basic tenet of marketing psychology, practised by politicians down the years.
I fail to see how you can go from Scottish Labour taking a different position to Uk Labour (whether they knew about it or not is irrelevant) to being hypocritical about it. Why can they not have a different view on the matter? Do all SNP members have to have the same views as Alex Salmond? Are they checked regularly for incorrect thoughts? No. It is quite legitimate for Scottish Labour to have a different view about it, as indeed the Lockerbie branch of the Labour party might have a different view about it. Its not hypocrisy - its democracy.
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John @ 116
The opposition is opposing. Its what it does. It it wasnt opposing it would be in Government - thats how our situation works. I might disagree with the way it goes about that opposition (see my comments above on the Scottish Budget, for example). But that method is not the perogative of the Scottish Labour Party.
The SNP, when in opposition in Holyrood opposed a great many things which they should have supported, but they did not because it was proposed by the Government (I'm sure many will say they supported things they should have opposed as well!). In my own local authority, the ruling group is an alliance of councillors whose only tie seems to be "we're not the SNP". Instead of being constructive, the SNP group opposes every measure that comes up - simply because its been proposed by the Angus Alliance. There is "no attempt at constructive criticsm" to coin a phrase. Do I complain? No, although I am disappointed, they are simply doing what oppositions do.
And for the record, I am not 100% happy that Labour councillors are part of this Anti-SNP alliance - as I see few Labour values from it. I would happily have our councillors working as part of an SNP-led administration - IF it delivered our values and priorities. I think part of the problem is the personal animosity between some councillors on both sides from the previous (SNP) administration - which has not necessarily been a good thing.
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Jackie Baillie, or Nicola Sturgeon? Now, take away their political allegiancies and tell me who you'd prefer as Health Secretary.
Richard Baker, or Kenny MacAskill. With the same proviso, who do you prefer? A nonentity who takes any political advantage he can with the justice system, or a man who may have made a 'wrong' decision but for all the right reasons.
Helen Eadie? She's not even on the Labour front bench (well not according to the BBC Democracy Live website) and last news report on BBC Scotland website mentioning her name was on 19th August 2008!
I can accept that in the U.K. Cameron, Clegg, and Milliband are promoting what they honestly think is the best way forward for the U.K. I can even accept that Annabel Goldie, Tavish Scott, et al, have the interests of Scotland at heart. The trouble is that the second lagest party in Scotland seem to only have their own interests at heart.
They should be making CONSTRUCTIVE critisism, not presenting themselves as embittered individuals only interested in scoring political points, and very often finding out that these stances come back to bite them, not least because Mr. Grey, or his advisors, have got the whole premise wrong. (Remember last week where IG attacked AS about scholastic 4 day weeks in Renfrewshire only for it to emerge it was a proposition put by LABOUR councillors and thrown out by their SNP counterparts.)
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#118 John
Taking a position that has no sound basis other than self-interest and duplicity, with the primary intent to heap condemnation on your 'rivals' at the expense of the truth and public interest is neither "democratic", nor does it display competent leadership.
In fact, as most will testify, it is pathetic.
Yet Labour have persistently resorted to such posturing, not just over the Megrahi case, but also blatantly over minimum alcohol pricing, arguably over their frenzied pillorying of Stewart Stevenson, in line with similar unsavoury attacks on other government ministers, and also notoriously over the budget, which they have never supported in 4 years, despite receiving most or all of their stated demands.
Far from demonstrating any vision or leadership potential throughout this time, all New Lab (North Britain) have managed to display is a grudging, grinding opposition to every initiative the Scottish Government has produced.
Far from representing some 'fresh alternative' for our country's future, a vote for these desperate self-preservationists would only compound the economic damage already inflicted by their Westminster masters, plunging any hopes we hold for genuine recovery into chaos and despair.
And far from 'slipping behind' in a single snapshot poll, when Labour are resoundly crushed at the forthcoming election, it will be no more, or less, than they have deserved for at least the past 4 years!
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John Ruddy @ various
"I have also seen politicians like Jackie Baillie, Richard Baker and Helen Eadie - and many others from all parties and from none. The vast majority of them are doing things because they believe that those measures will make Scotland better. I dont think there is anyone who wants Scotland to go on a downward trajectory - not even the tories. I might think that their policies would do so - but that is a different matter."
While you are correct that the vast majority of our elected representatives may work towards the betterment of our country there have been many instances of late where Labour Councillors, MSP's and MP's have all been shown to have personal gain and towing the party line in order to obtain advancement at their heart. I don't doubt all political parties will have such people within their ranks, however the most recent publicised events do appear to have a common theme running through them. Others also appear to oppose for the sake of it; the bogey-man that is the SNP is always the target. Unfortunately this approach would appear to have diminishing returns, even more so when compared with the conduct of those shouting about it the loudest.
"Has anyone thought that the real reason why there are so few Labour voices on blogs such as this - and other websites, is not that Laboru supporters are "ignorant stupid idiots" or "fools who would vote for a monkey with a red rosette" but are simply fed up of the foul abuse that their politicians and they themselves receive? If you were to take an opinion poll of the online commentators, the SNP would have a landlslide victory come May - this is an unrepresentative self-selecting sample."
There used to be a couple of Tories that blogged regularly and some Labour supporters; Dean was particularly able to hold a decent debate while another was so rabidly anti-SNP that he couldn't bring himself to make any sensible contribution.
I think it's hardly fair to charicature all those Labour bloggers cowering for fear of a verbal bashing here and elsewhere; they should be perfectly capable of fighting their corner.
I agree that we should be able to debate each other views sensibly without resorting to personal attacks; doing so would indicate you have lost the arguement.
THus, I don't agree with your assertion that there are so few here to debate their position because of the nasty SNP supporters populating the boards; rather there could be any number of explanations. Perhaps they don't care enough or feel they need to contribute; perhaps they restrict themselves to other boards, perhaps whne challenged to explain or reinforce their assertions they are tired of finding little if no answers at all.
Personally I would like to see more contributors on here of differing political thinking, at least then they could explain to me why the union and all it entails is the beneficial and the way forward.
Many contributors here have asked those that favour the union; which I presume you as a Labour supporter do, why they hold that position as opposed to independence. If you don't mind me asking, would you be agreeable to full fiscal autonomy for Scotland?
It always suprises me that many still hold the Labour party as it is now still as the party of the working man, it has drifted so far from that position that it would unrecognisable to those that supported the party previously (the late Jimmy Reid comes to mind).
Finally you ask why there are many more online SNP commentators; simple really, without much of the MSM reporting issues impartially (BBC for the most part excepted) or from a Scottish perspective; online would appear to be one of the few ways left to disseminate information to the public.
Anyway, long post, but I do hope you stick around, makes for a more itneresting board than otherwise; and perhaps you can coax a few more of you political persuasion out of the wood work too!
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# 117
My comment "Mr Gray is out of his depth, he is a national embarrassment.", is how I feel, I should not feel compelled to disguise or hide this. I feel exactly the same about his three colleagues I mention.
I've never said you need to be a true Scot to vote SNP, but an appreciation of unionist duplicity helps understand where Scotland has come from and where it is now. I have had non Scottish friends in the SNP, but in general, the SNP is a Scottish party, but is very much open to others. That a movement and political party to free Scotland from London rule is made up of Scots, what would you expect?
The lack of labour supporters on here - I think it is because they are shamed, shamed to support a party that has drifted and lost its reason to be. Are labour all bad, certainly not, again I have friends in labour, but I have more ex than current labour friends. What do labour stand for?
Lastly, "labour wish to take the people of Scotland with them on this downward trajectory", I believe this to be the case, I see labour placing party above nation, that said, labour have no clear identity of what their nation is.
C McK
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John Ruddy appears to be living in a different country to me! Or, he lives in a world where nothing happens outside Holyrood!
Outside of Holyrood in the press and especially BBC Radio Scotland, you will find quite a different experience in listening to programmes such as Good Morning Scotland. This programme seems to specialise in a massive anti-SNP bias in its reporting and editing and most of its presenters are far harder on SNP politicians than any other!
I am a member of no political party, so have no axe to grind re Mr. Gray but all I see and hear of him says quite clearly that he in unfit for the leadership role he holds. Contrast that with weeebendywendy who was so far ahead of the Labour Party of Westminster in Scotland that she could not function.
The story goes that Ian Gray has had media training to help him in his TV appearances, but he comes across as utterly dull, languid and clearly reeling from the personality transplant. And he has a major problem in that his shadow cabinet support is virtually non-existent and, if you watch FMQ's, you'll have seen the venom that folks such as Richard Baker use as they spit out their words of condemnation against the SNP and Alex Salmond.
And that last point is the key one for LPoWiS - they have two policies in Holyrood - one is to get Salmond, the other is to get the SNP.
Then, if you turn to the press, you'll find that with the notable exception of Ian MacW, there is unified dislike/hatred of the SNP and this has been constantly evident in the writings of scribes on the staff of the Scotsman, The Herald, The Telegraph, etc.
So, sorry, Mr Ruddy, the evidence as I see it, points to a never-ending slagging off of the SNP and Alex Salmond. Ian Gray gets treated like a pet lamb.
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Bendy Wendy has resigned.
Labour Party of Westminster in Scotland. RIP.
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ScotinNotts @ 122
Thank you for your long and thoughtful reply. Time doesnt permit me to reply to all of your points, but they are well made, even if I disagree with some of them.
With regards to Labourites "cowering" - its not the word i would use, but can you honestly say that you would enjoy visting a site where as soon as you make a comment supporting your political beliefs you are subject to a torrent of comments designing to belittle you and your position? I know I am not alone amongst Labour supporters in thinking that there isnt any fun in being waylaid by a gang of "cybernats" whose only objective is to portray you as a tool of the London elite at best, or an ignorant fool at worst. I cant think of any Labourites who would compare Alex Salmond to a cartoon character - even though there are several who come to mind.
As it happens, I do think Scotland needs greater fiscal autonomy - and even more than is promised in the Scotland Bill. Full control over all income taxes (including bandings), as well better control over local government taxes (where the "local" income tax fell down, I beleive) and even the ability to raise/lower VAT (either through an additional tax or relief would be easiest, I think). But power to vary Corporation tax would be counter-productive - look at how Ireland were held to ransom when it was suggested they raise their rate to 12.5% to offset the impact of the cuts. I dont want Scotland to be blackmailed by big (american) business. I also want Scotland to have full control over its voting system - a future government might want to replace the FPTP element of our elections with AV - if the same happens at Westminster. It should have the power to do so.
Calum McKay @ 123
I didnt ask you to hide or disguise your feelings about Iain Gray. You have made them well known. I merely ask why you make them so personal. Such levels of vitriol are usually reserved for people who have committed violent and sadistic crimes, not for political opponents. As for him being a national embarassment, I doubt that he is, seeing as that would mean he would had to have mis-represented Scotland in some way to those people living abroad (or perhaps in England). Again, he hasnt, to the best of my knowledge, unless you count being a bit unknown outside of Scotland as being an embarassment. And surely is charge that could have been laid at the door of John Swinney when HE was leader of the opposition at Holyrood?
You talk of shame - yes there is shame, a shame that many Scots see that the way to have political discussion is to pour vitriol against their opponents, often mocking their physical attributes when doing so. That is not a Scotland I would want to be a part of - and I suspect that is why many of these internet sites have few non-SNP commentors.
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I havnt got a lot of time, so a quick reply to djmac7 @ 124.
I dont listen to BBC Radio Scotland, but I do watch BBC Scotland, and in our household its flagship nightly news programm is called "Reporting SNPLand" for its handling anything the SNP says with kid gloves. Its meant humourously, as it isnt really THAT bad - but it most certainly isnt pro-Labour - and it isnt often neutral in its language. I dont read the Torygraph - I would doubt it is pro-Labour, but our regional paper, where many people here will get their national news is the Courier - and I'd challenge you to say that is pro-Labour. The Thompson family have been anti-union and anti-labour for as long as any around here can remember!
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~ 126 - "Such levels of vitriol"
Let's not get this out of proportion, all I said was "Mr Gray is out of his depth, he is a national embarrassment".
To most people I know, this is just stating the obvious.
Mr Ruddy, you may live in Scotland, but you know little of it. All I want is my country to be free, just like any other country in Europe of 5 + million.
No more, no less!
C McK
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#126 John Ruddy
"With regards to Labourites "cowering" - its not the word i would use, but can you honestly say that you would enjoy visting a site where as soon as you make a comment supporting your political beliefs you are subject to a torrent of comments designing to belittle you and your position? I know I am not alone amongst Labour supporters in thinking that there isnt any fun in being waylaid by a gang of "cybernats" whose only objective is to portray you as a tool of the London elite at best, or an ignorant fool at worst. I cant think of any Labourites who would compare Alex Salmond to a cartoon character - even though there are several who come to mind."
What you portray isn't the most fun you could have; however as someone already pointed out try fighting Scotland's corner on NR or AN blogs, you get called much worse things there. I would ask you why you feel you cannot debate or engage on this or other forums; if people disagree with you surely you would explain your positiion to them, if they dicredit your position why do you not reply with a reasoned response of why you hold those beliefs? Granted there are those on both sides that refuse to engage constructively, however that doesn't mean you shouldn't engage. Being called a "cybernat" isn't exactly constructive, no name calling is, and while I'm at it there have been many an unflattering reference to AS on these boards (although those posters seem to have moved on).
"As it happens, I do think Scotland needs greater fiscal autonomy - and even more than is promised in the Scotland Bill. Full control over all income taxes (including bandings), as well better control over local government taxes (where the "local" income tax fell down, I beleive) and even the ability to raise/lower VAT (either through an additional tax or relief would be easiest, I think). But power to vary Corporation tax would be counter-productive - look at how Ireland were held to ransom when it was suggested they raise their rate to 12.5% to offset the impact of the cuts. I dont want Scotland to be blackmailed by big (american) business. I also want Scotland to have full control over its voting system - a future government might want to replace the FPTP element of our elections with AV - if the same happens at Westminster. It should have the power to do so."
It would seem that we agree on much; although we obviously differ on independence for whatever reason it is clear you would like to strengthen Scotland's hand within the union; perhaps even as far as a federalised UK?
With what you've said in mind, why would you continue to support the Labour party that have proposed, with others, the disastrous Scotland Bill (after the debacle that was the Calman Commission). It would appear that what you would like for Scotland and what the party you support want for Scotland are at odds with each other.
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127. John Ruddy
Got it this is part of your job application to BBC Scotland.
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#112 John Ruddy
"As far as I can see, the only answer to "why all the personal abuse on Iain Gray and Scottish Labour" is "well, he's not very good at FMQs". I'm afraid thats not a good answer."
To say that dour Iain is "not very good at FMQs" is not merely masterly understatement but demonstrates how poorly he is doing his job of holding the administration to account. Were there any sensible alternatives, Mr Ed would have found a replacement shop steward for Holyrood on day one of his leadership.
More importantly, he appears not to have a single consensual instinct in what passes for his intellect, which means that failing a Labour party overall majority at Holyrood he will find no willing coalition partners and would be a true disaster as FM of a minority administration.
His posturing over Megrahi can indicate only a [believable] economy with the truth, an improbable belief that he is in no way beholden to the London HQ of the Labour Party or the [believable] contempt he is held in by his superiors in the Labour hierarchy in keeping him out of the loop. Do take your pick and explain which and why.
Finally, his negative approval rating and minimal recognition in the polls despite the best efforts of BBC Scotland and the rest of the MSM hardly suggests a vote-winner. He's certainly no communicator.
Even amongst his unionist colleagues he is a figure of fun. Why else would Alex Massie have written in the Spectator: "
Mr Gray is the fifth person to lead Labour's Holyrood group since devolution and by some hefty distance the least impressive. This is a low bar to fail to clear but there you have it:"
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#129 ScotInNotts
Brilliant post, with which I entirely concur but would simply add:
Have you [Mr Ruddy] actually read the Calman commission's reports and/or
the draft Scotland bill?
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Mr Ruddy is right that these boards are a bit one-sided; but he is wrong to think it is the fault of the nasty vicious "cybernats". No-one actually gets hurt here, you know. And he is absolutely right to warn us not to lay too much stress on performance at FMQs. As he says, "performance at FMQs does not translate into popularity or electability". Neither it does; but nevertheless ALL polls, whether yesterday's or previous ones which made better reading for Labour, put Mr Salmond well ahead of Mr Gray in terms of popularity. Even unionists don't rate Mr Gray, as Barbanzero has pointed out. In the Scotsman today, Bill Jamieson likened a putative Gray regime to Jack McConnell's, but without the razzmatazz! And who the First Minister is really does matter. Unionists know that or they wouldn't have got so upset about "Alex Salmond for First Minister" on the 2007 ballot paper! But it's nice to have Mr Ruddy here, and possibly much may be made of him if he be caught young. We don't want him to disappear like Dean, who was good value. But if you want to see personal abuse without holding your nose and dipping into the English blogosphere, check out some of the stuff some of the Scotsman's tame unionists have said about Mr Salmond's girth, for example...
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