All to play for?
For Labour, an excellent result. A comprehensive victory over their most bitter rivals, the SNP.
Almost as thorough a gubbing as United inflicted on the Dark Blues in their "friendly" on Tuesday.
Is Gordon Brown, then, a shoe-in to return to Downing Street as PM rather than occasional dinner guest? Behave yourself.
Is it, then, "game on" for the General Election, as the new MP Willie Bain (to whom congratulations) suggested?
Understandable exuberance from the newly elected one - but an extrapolation too far.
It will give Labour hope that they can forestall Alex Salmond's aim of 20 Scottish seats.
But, more generally, Labour will not be facing the SNP in the English swing seats they need to win.
Further, there may be more residual sympathy and support for Gordon Brown in Scotland than south of the border.
So, if it doesn't predict the UK General Election, what does it tell us?
Firstly, it confirms that the previously buoyant SNP are vulnerable to tough campaigning. (Confirms? Remember Glenrothes.)
Labour fought this by-election in a relentlessly oppositional fashion.
They listed the iniquities supposedly visited upon Glasgow by the Scottish government.
Or, as they repeatedly called it, "the Edinburgh SNP government."
See Glasgow? See Edinburgh? That mantra plays to every intuitive grievance within the population of the Dear Green Place.
It is a single transferable prejudice.
In vain did the SNP protest that the accusations were misplaced.
In vain did they try to turn the attack round to complaints about Glasgow Council over schooling.
The Labour attack found a receptive audience.
SNP strategists point to another factor. They say that - unlike in Glasgow East - they couldn't find or motivate sufficient numbers of aspirational voters to conclude that things, in the words of their rival's sometime song, could only get better.
Folk were unhappy. Folk were bitter. Folk were exasperated. But the response was hopelessness and helplessness - rather than anger and a determination to drive change.
Not sure that entirely explains the quite remarkable difference between Glasgow East and Glasgow NE.
But Nationalists are adamant that it was a factor.
What of the respective campaigns? Willie Bain seldom stumbled, cheerfully disowning his own UK government's policies where appropriate.
Without blushing, he declared repeatedly that he was "no politician".
Behind the scenes, the effort was large and sustained.
For the SNP, it sometimes seemed to me that David Kerr was holding back, perhaps fearful of sounding abrasive.
In the various broadcast hustings, it was Ruth Davidson of the Tories (of whom, perhaps, we will now hear more) who appeared to be taking the fight most aggressively to Labour.
Then again, she wasn't facing the ad hominem attacks directed at Mr Kerr. She had less to lose.
In all, this result dents SNP momentum. It buoys Labour. I doubt, however, whether there is a direct, untrammeled read-through from Glasgow NE to the UK General Election or electoral behaviour more generally.
The voters appear to be scunnered with politics: look at the turnout, a record Scottish low in a by-election.
Their trust is still there to be won and lost in a wider contest.
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~19~RS~)
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And maybe come the GE the media won't allow Labour to get away with pretending they are the opposition party and not the incumbents (although they will be in opposition after the GE)? Labour fought this by-election as if it was for Holyrood and the majority of the Scottish media joined in the merry charade.
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An excellent result for Labour Brian?In what way excellent?They ran a very negative campaign with the help of the media against Kerr and got their core vote out by playing the 'SNP are anti-Glasgow' card.Come the general election campaign this result will be largely forgotten.If the Tories had won a by-election last night in leafy Surrey with a large majority would you be describing it this morning as an excellent result?
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This result is in many ways the mirror image of last year's by-election in Henley, which the Tories won easily. This IS a super safe Labour seat and it would have taken an immense effort for the SNP to unseat Labour, there is little of wider consequence apart from the fact that this should ensure that Brown will lead Labour at the GE.
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Brian
A bit more on a disaster for democracy would have been in order.
Labour are shooting themselves in the foot. Their campaigns are trivialising Westminster and building up the pretendy wee. If they carry on like this people will begin to believe in a Scottish Parliament and, when the SNP point out that it is nothing but a talking shop for allocating our pocket money, something will have to give.
Westminster matters; they are the ones controlling employment, benefits, pensions, citizenship, wars and taxes. To have an MP elected by less than 20% of elegible voters is a disgrace to all political parties. They have turned the Mother of Parliaments into an irrelevance for two thirds of the people. The media come out no better; their big story 'Is some "celebrity" wearing too much Botox to go into the jungle for some "reality" show?'.
Despite your war weariness with politics as she is played now, politics does matter and deserves a better scrutiny than you appear to give it in this post.
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Will parts if not most of Glasgow be forever a Labour enclave?
Why do the voters continue with a party which quite frankly couldn't give a damn about them?
It beggars belief that the majority was as substantial as it was. and it reinforces the opinion that if Labour put a monkey up as a candidate they would still win, particularly, or so it seems, in the west of Scotland.
Fortunately others think and act differently, and will do so at the upcoming GE.
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Brian
And as an addendum to the evidence of voter dissatisfaction, only 63% of those who called for a postal vote returned them. Normally it is over 80%
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Only 12000 of the benefit army bothered to go out and vote it seems. Maybe none of them will bother to come out at the GE, and the Labour big guns certainly won't be there to help the hapless wandering Willie, they will be too busy struggling to save their own skins . Cameron must be a happy man this morning, Labour are now stuck with Bungle Brown till the election. Mandellson and his happy band must have been praying for an SNP win so they could get rid of Brown, this result however will mean a lot of them, including a few of the cabinet may have to go looking for a job to supplement their company directors' fees after the election.
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Brian, I normally enjoy your blogs but this has got to be the most one-sided, biased and poor description of a by-election, ever. Poor show. No mention of any other than the three main parties.
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A bad result for the SNP. I was shocked we could only manage 4,000 votes. But we will prevail in our quest for freedom and when we do, I would not be surprised if we don't have the support of Glasgow NE.
You have to think about the dynamics of the electorate in GNE. 2/3rds don't care about politics. Even more do not understand politics. Picture the images of voters being asked why they are voting Labour. They cannot answer beyond 'they are the working class party'!!?. It is up to us to educate these people. That is the mother of all mountains to climb but we must tackle how to do that. This is exactly what the Labour party do not want and we could go on for ever about that party's regard for the electorate. The media are complicit in this behaviour.
Freedom
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Quickly in, noticed this Thurs morning, couldn’t post as the BBBC was dead:
The Irish are up in arms about public sector pay cuts due to banking bailouts.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE5AB00B20091112
Given that we know that when the Irish exit recession they will still be wealthier per capita than us, and that the UK deficit is worse that Ireland’s, what does the consensus feel about what bad news the incoming UK government will have to break (if and) when a UK GE happens?
Our own (UK) economic gurus are saying the same: pay-cuts for all public sector workers and a pay-freeze for five years, and yet our fourth estate is only occasionally stirring with such horror stories.
Frankly it talks to the British Establishment: if Labour were somehow to retain enough MP’s to form a government (a la Bain) would they have the mandate to wield the (enormous) axe that is required (so the insulated “establishment” would see it) on the teachers, policemen, dustmen, fire-fighters and other local authority workers, and impose the swinging tax increases required on middle Britain.
I fear there would be a very British revolution (maybe that is what is to be engineered?).
Or alternatively EVERYONE is now working for a Tory victory just to provide the mandate they feel is needed.
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That's a better blog, Brian ;-)
There is one up for the SNP, down for Labour. There seems to be quite an angry backlash that the people of Glasgow North East have voted Labour in again. So this will remind voters to dislike Labour over that, they are the problem. Labour are the problem.
We must not fall in to the trap of Scots fighting amongst ourselves, as Labour shamelessly tried to start off with Glasgow-Edinburgh badgering.
We mustn't irately blame the folk of Glasgow.
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See that the Tory Speaker's wife Sally Bercow is to stand as a council candidate for Labour in London.The Westminster Council Labour leader is quoted as saying "She will be modern,outgoing and will really get stuck in to the nitty gritty of canvassing and dealing with local issues."
Doesn't sound like she'd be much help in a Scottish Labour election campaign.
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Labour may well win the UK election in Scotland, but the truth is that their appeal South of the border is very limited. It is a little known fact that Labour actually lost the 2005 UK election in England, it was only the seats they won in Scotland and Wales that gave them their current majority in the UK Parliament. Next year, however I suspect that even strong majorities in Scotland and Wales will not make up for the rout they will suffer South of the border, so David Cameron will be PM.
It is also premature to discount the Nationalist threat. There are several things I can see playing into the hands of the SNP next year:
1) Tory spending cuts imposed by a government Scotland did not vote for
2) The opposition parties voting down the referendum bill and so "denying Scotland a voice"
3) Labour's perceived weakness at Holyrood
4) The English media hyping up England's World Cup campaign
To counter this, and provide a strong challenge to the SNP in the 2011 Holyrood elections, Scottish Labour need to come up with some policies to inspire people as the SNP did in 2007 (the SNP haven't kept most of the promises they made then, but that's another story.) The reason Labour lost in 2007 was they couldn't come up with anything more imaginiative than "10 Reasons not to vote SNP."
As this election shows, Labour are far from dead and buried, if they can come up with a manifesto and positive ideas to win people round, then they will have a decent chance of getting back into power in 2011, if not then regardless of yesterday's result the political wilderness beckons...
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Glasgow By-election: Another Victory For The “Naebody” Party
"But Labour also wins partly by default, because so many voters have just given up completely on all politicians and parties. It’s not just simple abstention. It is worse than that. Nothing will ever change, runs the argument, so why bother voting for any of them?"
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I don't agree with Brian's analysis of the result.
However, some of the comments show the problems with Scottish politics.
Before yesterday, some (note the word SOME) posters were implying the significance of the seat, and how the Labour majority would be slashed etc etc. The more sensible ones quite rightly played down the importance.
Labour run a negative campaign, and the SNP followed suit, not helped by a relatively weak candidate. (Bain fell into a safe seat and wouldn't last 5 seconds in a swing seat). The Conservative candidate was the strongest, but had no chance anyway. Sheridan has history and I don't think he will ever regain the level of support in the past. The Lib Dems fall into the same category as chocolate teapots.
I'd say Labour are forcing division into the political arguments, and the SNP needs to respond but not react with a slagging match.
Someone took issue with my comments that should the SNP fail to gain significant gains at the GE, then Alex Salmond's position may under threat.
I said could, not would. I don't think he will be replaced. He IS their trump card but has anyone considered that he may not be the best person for the West? I'd argue that Nicola Sturgeon can relate better with the West.
Regarding areas such as Glasgow NE, many of them are likely to be apathetic about politics as they cannot see what will be the benefit of change.
Talks about banking crisis, 300 years of English rule, a chance to determine your own future doesn't wash with everyone. One woman last night pointed out her husband - who worked all his life - has been made redundant because he wouldn't accept his pay being cut by two thirds. These people need to be shown tangible evidence how things might be better. For most people it is about money.
Talk about how the SNP voters will all come out in droves next year is defensive. People need to be politically active as soon as the date is announced. That means knocking on doors, rather than hanging about railway stations and shopping centres. There are a lot of undecideds out there, and simple chat on a doorstep might be all the nudge they need.
And it helps negate the negative media coverage.
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15. Neil_Small147
Nicola Sturgeon looks like a very good politician and Salmond's likely heir, but saying that losing a couple of byes in a Labour stronghold means that they'll replace Salmond is to put it mildly a HUGE stretch.
Mind you, I think the SNP should have done better in this bye and the SNP needs to have a good sit-down about it.
And I very much disagree (as you already know) about the supposed-vital importance of the GE. A good showing, improving on the last GE, has psychological importance but there is every indication they'll do that anyway. The 20 would be slightly possible but no more than that. And no matter what happens there won't be enough Scottish MPs of any party to stave off what the Tories want to do (whatever that may be and whether it's good or bad) in Westminster.
There is every indication, however, that with or without Glasgow voting SNP they will substantially improve at Holyrood. Right now they look to be set to at least raise the number of SNPs into the mid-fifties (so much for the Labour could take Holyrood) and I'm betting that they could do better than that. No, they haven't kept a lot of their "promises" and they can clearly point to why in a campaign.
They look set to give the LD a thorough drubbing and if they can't get a referendum through after the Holyrood election, I will be very much surprised.
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'It beggars belief that the majority was as substantial as it was. and it reinforces the opinion that if Labour put a monkey up as a candidate they would still win, particularly, or so it seems, in the west of Scotland.'
And you can be sure that people in the West of Scotland will not be persuaded to vote for parties whose supporters hold them in such obvious disdain.
Poster #15 has a point about Salmond - among my friends and family he's regarded as someone who couldn't care less about this part of the world. I'm not saying he does or doesn't, but that is a perception of him. Whether he cares enough about that to attempt to change it is another matter. Swinney, on the other hand, is held in some respect.
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Cheer up everyone, you could always go watch a movie...
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A sad night for Scotland as this only highlights the situation in Glasgow Labour or is it Labour Glasgow ?
Why can't Glasgow join the English league like Rangers and Celtic
and leave Scotland to the Scots.
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19. Tom
"Why can't Glasgow join the English league like Rangers and Celtic"
Since the English have rejected Bolton's suggestion that Rangers and Celtic form a Treaty of Union with England, it isn't a good example!
More importantly, I really dislike the idea that people who vote for Unionist parties, or come from a particular part of the country can't be Scots. Let's leave the divisive nonsense to Labour.
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Online Ed Here
For Labour, an excellent result. A comprehensive victory over their most bitter rivals, the SNP. Almost as thorough a gubbing as United inflicted on the Dark Blues in their "friendly" on Tuesday.
Not a good analogy, this was a strong traditional Labour constituency with a 10,000 majority. Try holding the same by-election in a strong SNP constituency and see if Labour increase their share of the vote.
Firstly, it confirms that the previously buoyant SNP are vulnerable to tough campaigning. They listed the iniquities supposedly visited upon Glasgow by the Scottish government. The Labour attack found a receptive audience.
Previously Bouyant? Tough campaign? Smears, lies and unworkable policy (auto knife jail) were the core of the campaign as was the 'local man' claim despite living and working in London most of the working week. Bain was never scrutinised by anyone but Bernard Pomsonby on any of his campaign themes.
Not sure that entirely explains the quite remarkable difference between Glasgow East and Glasgow NE.
Glasgow East saw the media give the by-election a high profile with prime time debates involving the candidates. Westminster issues were quite properly addressed and debated as it was a Westminster election. The claims by Curran that she was a local candidate were investigated by the media and the results headlined.
Glenrothes and Glasgow North East saw the media turn a blind eye to the Labour candidate and Westminster problems, no TV debates during prime time and Labour inspired campaign themes dominate the headlines. Moreover a quick look at the interviews faced by the SNP candidate and Willie Bain shows a marked difference in approach - Kerr interogated longer and continually interrupted (16 times), Bain only six (all at the end).
What of the respective campaigns? Willie Bain seldom stumbled, cheerfully disowning his own UK government's policies where appropriate.
He seldom stumbled because he was seldom pushed to justify anything. Ponsonby on STV paralysed Bain with one question on his knife carrying policy. Bain gaffed badly by answering a question on Michael Martin's rules transgression on obtaining flight for family members by saying that "the rules need to be changed".
Bain did the rabbit in the headlights trick again when interviewed on Good Morning Scotland. Bain had no answers to two barely probing questions, he had though a set of pre-prepared scripts that he delivered no matter what he was asked.
Bain disowned Labour so much that even the hapless Lib Dem candidate made fun of him. A Labour candidate campaigning for Westminster on devolved issues who continually disagreed with Labour policy at Westminster - a dream for a real journalist.
Then again, she [Ruth Davidson] wasn't facing the ad hominem attacks directed at Mr Kerr.
Too late to highlight these smears now Brian, the election is over, you ought to have condemned them at the time.
In all, this result dents SNP momentum.
Does it really? They increase their share of the vote in a Labour heartland in the face of negativity and smearing condoned through ambivalence by the media - it is a decent result.
The voters appear to be scunnered with politics: look at the turnout, a record Scottish low in a by-election.
Maybe next time such disgracefull tactics are employed in an election you might then condemn them.
Glasgow North East was not served well by the Scottish media. I doubt that Willie Bain will make a difference to anyone's life but his own.
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@17 GlasgowGooner
Not only would these people vote for a chimp in a rosette, if the chimp had been unavailable, they would have surely voted for the chimps banana instead (as long as it had the magic rosette).
"My father voted labour, his father voted labour, so I will always vote labour"
Idiots.
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"It is a little known fact that Labour actually lost the 2005 UK election in England, it was only the seats they won in Scotland and Wales that gave them their current majority in the UK Parliament."
Edinchris I am afraid you are wrong - it is correct to say that the Tories won the popular vote (just) in England at the last election, but if you look at the seats won you will see that Labour had an overall majority of 44 seats in England so it would still be a Labour govt in power.
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For Labour, an excellent result. milk lemonade chocolate
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My feelings about the Glasgow by-election are expressed below:
SNP Tactical Voting
In the General Election, with all 59 constituencies up for grabs, the tactics and message that worked around the red road flats of Springburn will not carry the day in Paisley, well-heeled Edinburgh, the Highlands and many more places. This is not to mention the apparent collapse in the Lib Dem vote which has seen them finish, 4th, 4th and now 6th in the past three Scottish by-elections. There are several seats in Scotland where the SNP are challenging the Lib Dems and these could turn out to be fertile ground.
One can only hope that Glasgow, Bain and These will be happy together.
Let’s look forward and not back, with less than 6 months to the GE.
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There's a not very useful poll by YouGov on AV and the Tories. What was interesting was the question about likelihood to have opinions changed by policies.
Scotland
"Not applicable: I would vote for the Conservative party anyway -7%
Not applicable: I would NOT vote for the Conservative party anyway – 60%"
North England (the bit most similar to us)
"Not applicable: I would vote for the Conservative party anyway -18%
Not applicable: I would NOT vote for the Conservative party anyway – 45%"
South England (the bit that largely determines the UK Government)
"Not applicable: I would vote for the Conservative party anyway -23%
Not applicable: I would NOT vote for the Conservative party anyway – 34%"
Most people are not committed to one party regardless - even many on here might be willing to switch their vote to the "least worst" option for tactical reasons in a particular constituency. Many voters are happy to shift between two parties - dependent on circumstances.
In Scotland we know that many are willing to move between the SNP and whichever is their preferred Unionist party.
The trick is going to be to get them voting more often for the SNP, and insulting them when they don't do so doesn't help!
The "tribalists" won't ever change - like the 7% committed Tories - so don't bother with them. Respect their stance and move on.
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At the GE in 6/7 months time changes to the FPTP system will have to be considered:
Voting reform referendum pledged.
I note that there has been a further YouGov poll has been published.
Poll was commissioned by the Electoral Reform Society. The main question was:
Which of these systems is your first preference?
The present system - FPTP 39%
The Alternative Vote 22%
Proportional Representation 22%
Don't know 18%
The following site describes the differences between voting systems:
Voting Systems
The alternative vote is not actually a proportional system, but a majoritarian system. It looks most similar to the current electoral system.
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I see that the message has gone out from SNP spinbot control to a)blame the electorate for not being clever enough to vote SNP and b) blame Labour for pinning an anti-Glasgow bias onto the SNP.
Some free advice. 1) It never, ever looks good to blame the electorate. At best it just sounds petulant. 2) there's a rich irony in the SNP falling victim to the politics of difference. Hoist with their own petard, as they say.
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"Almost as thorough a gubbing as United inflicted on the Dark Blues in their "friendly" on Tuesday. "
Enjoy it, you had a long enough drought against us. Normal service will be resumed. :)
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Disappointed to see that Labour not only clung on - but convincingly disposed of any opposition. I am not convinced of Labour policies however and as some have alluded too, Labours campaign was conducted with the impetus on Holyrood issues, not Westminster.
Still, it's not for me to judge who should have been elected, I neither live in Glasgow nor have anything to do with the area. I'm sure whoever voted for Bain knew what they were doing, wether as support to the incumbent Labour Government or as a protest to the "ant-glasgow" SNP or the "Anti Scottish" Tory Party.
Swings and roundabouts as they say. Roll on a General Election so that Labour can blow another £100K on securing the same seat within 6 months.
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#28. Lando
The SNP's vision is of an independent Scotland in which no part of the country is privileged over the other parts.This has been the party's ethos from its founding in 1934.It is surely a perfectly honourable stance whether one agrees with independence or not.
For Labour to whip up Glasgow chauvinism for electoral gain shows not only how few scruples are left in that once proud party but also highlights how addicted to short-termism Labour now is.
If there's one thing to learn from history it's that short-termism is the classic sign of a ruler,party or institution that's on the way out.
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Online Ed Here
28. At 5:01pm on 13 Nov 2009, Lando wrote:
I see that the message has gone out from SNP spinbot control to a)blame the electorate for not being clever enough to vote SNP and b) blame Labour for pinning an anti-Glasgow bias onto the SNP.
Some free advice. 1) It never, ever looks good to blame the electorate. At best it just sounds petulant. 2) there's a rich irony in the SNP falling victim to the politics of difference. Hoist with their own petard, as they say.
I think you'll find that all posters here think for themselves and post their own opinion, as you just did.
There are indeed a couple who have, through frustration, criticised the electorate, but they are in the minority.
As far as blaming Labour for the anti Glasgow smear aimed at the SNP; who do you think should be blamed for propogating such a lie?
I think that, on this one, blaming Labour is pretty justified.
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Scotland is waking up to the fact that had we not been part of UK then RBS and HBOS would have went to the wall, Scottish jobs and all.
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33. At 5:52pm on 13 Nov 2009, Moriarty wrote:
Scotland is waking up to the fact that had we not been part of UK then RBS and HBOS would have went to the wall, Scottish jobs and all.
Christ on a bike, I can't believe some people still subscribe to this nonsense.
In case you haven't noticed, HBOS and RBS DID go to the wall, and this happened as part of the Union. Would it have been worse under independence? Would it have even happened at all? Well we can postulate as much as we want as to whether or not an independent Scotland would have implemented more sensible banking restrictions, but one fact remains:
Being part of the union did not stop our banks going to the wall.
Oh, and what was that in the news a couple of days ago about Scottish jobs in the Lloyds group being lost? Is this, by any chance, happening under the union?
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Interesting article from UKPollingReport:
Would an AV on election day save Labour?
The Guardian’s article suggests giving a referendum on election day could put Labour on the verge of being the biggest party. There really is very little in the actual polling to suggest such a massive impact.
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#33 Moriarty
Iceland still seems to be there. Yes there would have been a few job losses here but it is the bankers of London who would have taken a bath. Instead of which they are paying themselves unconsciable bonuses out of Gordon Brown's handouts of our money. It looks as if our debt from "saving" the banks will be greater than Iceland's from losing their's. Nice one Gordon, next time you want to save the world, let me know as I'll want to get off.
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Interesting article from Wardog:
Apathy wins a seat at Westminster.
His penultimate paragraph is worrying…. if true.
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37. Roll_On_2010
"Personation" can actually be accidental. A young relative of mine exercised her first vote at University. She wasn't sure whether her name was on the voter's roll or not, but when her name (with a slightly different variation in her first name) appeared, she assumed that was her, and cast her vote. She later heard that the woman in the Hall of Residence whose name it actually was, hadn't been able to vote, she wisely kept her mouth shut!
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Still a few posters on here basically slagging off both Glasgow and the electorate, but as Online Ed as pointed out, thankfully only a minority.
If you are true supporters of the SNP you would not descend to such talk, as it - however unlikely - could suddenly appear around election time to be used against the SNP. Smear tactics are all the rage in politics, and all it needs is one headline and bang go a few votes.
Nicola Sturgeon summed the result perfectly by stating it was a negative vote, but no other party had anything different to offer.
I hate negative politics (even if I post a few negative comments on occasion). Why did the SNP not come out with the idependence message stronger? It might have planted a little seed in the minds of a few people, who decide they have nothing to lose.
Despite this being a Labour stronghold, I think the Lib Dems are finished in Scotland. The Tories might be stronger than some think, which should keep Dean happy!
Bain is a very poor candidate. His interview responses were worse than the BNP candidate, who sounded like a 17 year old getting his first job interview. His thumbs up was embarassing.
34. At 6:05pm on 13 Nov 2009, KingDouglasD wrote:
While you are correct in saying that the banks went to the wall anyway, the SNP did not state BEFORE the crisis they were after tighter regulations.
But Scotland with its oil would have the ability to recover quicker.
But there is no point in returning to this argument because what happened cannot be reset, only recovered.
And does anyone honestly think the residents of Glasow NE really care?
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Although written from a unionist point of view this a is reasonable article from The Economist.
There is a good reason why Scotland’s other politicians fear Mr Salmond: he is more charismatic and cleverer than them. He is clever enough to realise his chances of getting his referendum are slim and of winning it slimmer; he may well be content to see his adversaries vote it down, furnishing just the sort of grievance that he thrives on. They should call the conjuror’s bluff.
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37. At 6:24pm on 13 Nov 2009, Roll_On_2010 wrote:
That blog is bit like this one. It even has its own derek!
(Apologies to Derek!!)
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Brian, why ever do you believe the people of Glasgow NE are unhappy?
This is surely the best of times.
The UK has the largest fiscal deficit of any developed country, greater than even Iceland or Ireland. The people have been enjoying the benefits of stupendous borrowing.
But, all good things must come to an end and this binge must be paid for.
In future, substantial resources will have to be redirected to finance Brown's Burden and that will be the time to feel unhappy.
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evening , as we have seen in a lot of posts on this thread and the previous one there are 2 ways at looking at this almost predictable result .
we can take the easy road and slag off the electorate in various ways those that voted labour and those that didn't bother voting at all! or we can do it the hard way .
to honestly look at what happened in Glasgow north east last night we all must accept that a very large proportion of eligible voters have given up, they see no hope and therefore no point in voting at all and a very large percentage of those who bothered to turn up were that scared of change they did what they have always done.
do they need to get slagged off by all asundry? no they don't what they require is actual effective support ,something that has not been readily & freely forthcoming in the past.
I agree that it suits the labour party to ignore constituencies just like this one all over the country, it doesn't help when 99% of the media in Scotland have the spines of jelly fish and are unable to even think for themselves ,but these are but some of the hurdles that the unionist party's will put in place as they fight for there political future . Their time is in the past and the ideas they have peddled for the past decades are unravelling in front of there eyes. the fact that they have not been able to say anything positive about anything in the past decade and people are still voting for them shows how high the mountain is that has to be climbed
please don't be negative labour have the copyright for that just be positive.
Sid
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41. Neil_Small147
Every blog should have its derek!
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Well! sometimes you just have to GNU what your doing?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afdsL23fa5s
Just for Brownedov!. enjoy.
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40. Roll_On_2010
This is an interesting and well written article. I believe a lot of what it says is true. However to put this in the context of Glasgow NE, one thing the SNP should note is that Mr Salmond is not universally popular and is indeed seen as a divisive figure in many ways.
People in Glasgow NE may well be in despair, who could blame them they have every right. Labour has failed them, after 12 years it is impossible to argue differently. But then one must ask the obvious question, why did a party offering a radical change, relatively untainted by the expenses scandal, not appeal in any meaningful way to the electorate?
We are in the dying throws surely of the labour government, if the SNP cannot capitalise on this then there is something fundamentally wrong with the package they are selling.
Part of this is Mr Salmond. He is good at ripping Ian Gray at FMQ's, but then that is not exactly difficult. However listen to him in interviews, he does come across as smarmy and more than a little condescending. Also the inevitable fall out from government will start to catch up on him, all politicians have a shelf life.
However if the SNP are to achieve Independence then they need to build a consensus across the divides. They need to convince the majority that things can be better if we were independent. They are failing to do this. Support for Independence is not growing, in the what must be favourable circumstances to say the least.
Some serious questions need asked, Salmond has to adjust his tactics, take a more positive approach required to reach out to the electorate to build the required consensus. The question however is can he do that?
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As the residents of the leafy gated suburbs of Glasgow North east headed home for cocktails and caviar last night I am sure they blessed the day they voted Labour - look what it has got them!!!!!!!!!!!!! - one of the worst, and that is saying something, areas, in Glasgow. THAT is what Labour does, and will do to u, if u let them.
An excellent result????? - Labour HELD just about the safest seat in Scotland and it is called an excellent result by another Bias Corp person- if that is ALL they can do here oblivion awaits in 2010.
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46. northhighlander
"in the what must be favourable circumstances to say the least"
I'd agree with a lot of your post, but not on this bit. Reasonably, people are afraid in the hard times and unwilling to go for change. The "favourable" circumstances are when people are confident. Hence I'm happy for the referendum to be delayed!
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Yes! there are high levels of poverty in Glasgow and other ares but who can bring relief? and an instant end to poverty?.
I like the idea of credit unions! and what could be done for areas like Glasgow north east to expand the idea of credit unions.Could it be possible for an area to work together to better everyone's lot collectively by the use of credit unions in their areas?.
Could a pound a day donations in poor areas bring quick relief for some families?.(colletively gathered and then payed to the poorest families)
If you can create a lottery folks there must be ways of creating area relief from poverty?.
Thinking outside the box may mean an end to the means testing syndrome?.
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#33 Moriarty
You talk such rot.
You are dealing in what-ifs - and as any child will tell you, 20/20 hindsight is not a legitimate form of citation. You show your naivity in rounding on the issue of independence with a crass soundbite - a soundbite that might resonate with the ill-informed, but simply makes you look imbecilic and juvenile into the bargain.
What if Scotland had become independent in the 1970's? What if Scotland had an oil fund like Norway? What if Black Monday had never happened and we adopted the Euro? Would any of it have stopped the recession happening at all?
I DON'T KNOW
And neither do you, or anyone else, so please keep these nonsensical, idiotic comments to yourself.
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I'm quite sure that Salmond isn't particularly popular in parts of the West of Scotland, but that's no reason for the SNP to dump their biggest asset. The fact is that the SNP never had a chance in Glasgow NE, for reasons demonstrated on the BBC this very evening when they interviewed some of the GNE electorate and asked them, literally and directly, "Is there ANYTHING Labour could do that would stop you voting for them?", to be met with a very firm "No".
I'm not paraphrasing anything there. That is the exact question that was asked, and these mindless sheep happily affirmed for the nation to see that they would vote Labour *no matter what*, presumably including the candidate raping their dog and taking a dump on their carpet.
The SNP can't persuade these people, no matter who they choose for leader, so there's no point cutting their noses off to spite their face. They will have to achieve their aims despite such voters, not by persuading them. The best the SNP can hope for is to get these people to stay at home, and if there's one encouraging thing for the SNP to take from last night's result it's the turnout. If Scotland's fate is left to voters prepared to think for themselves and make an informed decision then there's still a chance that the country can escape a generation of English Tory rule.
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Friday the 13th in Glasgow North East
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#48 oldnat
Salmond will push to get the referendum bill through and if it's rejected - he wins. plain and simple.
We might be in the recovering stages of the recession and people might rightly be afraid of change - but lets not forget who's MORE afraid of change. Gray, Goldie and Scott will all vote down the referndum bill - it's a guarantee - because it's far too late for them to do a Bendy and say "Bring it on".
When the bill fails, the SNP will hold it's hands up and say to the electorate "look who's stifling your democratic freedom" and the answer will come at the next Holyrood Election - if not at the next General Election.
This stance will cost the Unionist parties votes. For the last year I've been writing to Cross Bench peers, Civil Servants, political editors, MSP's of unionist parties and indeed nationalist MSP's to gauge just what the feeling about this bill is.
All except the unionists conceeded that by opposing this referendum the position of the SNP is being strengthened. The unionists (those who replied) were adamant that the referendum is a waste of money - despite all of them claiming the Calman Commission was not only a justified expense but a magnificent achievement.
In every way I see this playing out - the SNP agenda is furthered and the advent of independence is assured.
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51. Rev_S_Campbell
"these mindless sheep"
Why do you insult people? These were people even older than me (!) whose identity was constructed in wartime as part of the "British working class". There really is no need to be condemnatory of people who think differently.
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48. At 8:25pm on 13 Nov 2009, oldnat wrote:
46. northhighlander
"in the what must be favourable circumstances to say the least"
I'd agree with a lot of your post, but not on this bit. Reasonably, people are afraid in the hard times and unwilling to go for change. The "favourable" circumstances are when people are confident. Hence I'm happy for the referendum to be delayed!
That is precisely what was said by some commentators last night.
It might be that holding off on a referendum may be a good idea. Perhaps that is why Wendy was so keen.
Part of the lack of confidence is people look at what happened to Iceland after being feted by the SNP. It doesn't matter why it happened or that Iceland may recover before we do or whatever - most of the electorate, even with a balanced media, will only see the failure. That is what people remember. Why do you think Labour uses negative campaigning?
Comments about Alex Salmond's appeal rating varying across the country is fact. Supporters have to accept that he is not everyone's cup of tea - no politician is. He made a huge mistake in Kilmarnock. It wasn't his efforts to save jobs, but that prior to that and after he was nowhere to be seen at other towns and cities where massive job losses were announced. It's like GARL. Most people did not even know what it was until it was cancelled, yet while there was a sound argument to cancel it, the Scottish Government still howls for 2 billion pounds for a new bridge for Edinburgh.
A few are making the mistake of assuming the public watch FMQs and see Alex ripping Gray apart. Most people are at work or not interested. They will relate to local issues - that is why independents have a nasty habit of winning in safe seats when things like hospitals are threatened.
Another problem is the constant "it's no oor fault miss" excuse. True, its difficult to govern effectively with a minority government and with your hands tied by the Treasury. But people get numb to this.
This seat is a minor affair, but there are plenty of lessons that the SNP can take on board. It is perhaps a well-time kick up the backside that might wake them up and focus on how they are getting those crucial votes next time around.
Enough waffle. I need to pick up she-who-must-be-obeyed from work or I'll be tomorrow morning's headlines.......
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55. Neil_Small147
"the Scottish Government still howls for 2 billion pounds for a new bridge for Edinburgh."
Its also a lifeline to the north east and elsewhere above the central belt.
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# 13. At 2:34pm on 13 Nov 2009, edinchris wrote:
'Labour may well win the UK election in Scotland, but the truth is that their appeal South of the border is very limited. It is a little known fact that Labour actually lost the 2005 UK election in England, it was only the seats they won in Scotland and Wales that gave them their current majority in the UK Parliament.'
Totally wrong and perpetrating the old myth. In England Labour were 0.4% behind the Tories in the percentage of the poll but this is a first past the post system. They had an overall majority in excess of 40 seats and hammered the Tories by more than 80 seats. PR anyone?
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#49 derekbarker
I like the idea of credit unions! and what could be done for areas like Glasgow north east to expand the idea of credit unions.Could it be possible for an area to work together to better everyone's lot collectively by the use of credit unions in their areas?.
A very good idea Derek. In fact as a Labour Councillor I was involved in setting up a number of these in the area I live in prior to 1997. At one time it was trumpeted loudly by NuLabour before they came to power in 1997, unfortunately it was forgotten when Teflon Tony took over.
Possibly similar to Glasgow today the findings then were that an ever growing number of people on the lower rung of the ladder were often pushed towards loan sharks and at times gangsters because of lack of access to the traditional means of borrowing.
I know that one of those credit unions still flourishes today although I am not sure about the rest.
If I were you would write to the Grey man and find out why NuLabour have not introduced Credit Unions within the last 74 years or certainly during the last 12 whilst in Government or indeed during their time at Holyrood.
Failing that, since you feel so strongly, I would write to the SNP to ask they look into this type of initiative, and help communities set some up. They are usually fairly cheap to set up and can be self sufficient and sustainable.
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Depressing this morning wasn't it. But not unsurprising given the coverage.
A Westminster bye-election fought on Holyrood issues. Makes you wonder what the local Labour MSPs are for.
It was hard for the SNP to get the positive message across. My feeling was that they should be more ruthless.
Then I was cheered by Morning Extra on the BBC. Caller after caller damning Labour, the negative campaign and the sad state of NE Glasgow after decades of neglect. Some of the callers were from that very area.
I thought of the result. What did it mean for Independence? How would the General Election go ?
Then I looked at the tory vote, how badly they had done. Means nothing, because how well they will do next spring.
Not long to go now till Dave arrives, rubbing his hands at the thought of oil, gas, renewable energy, clean fresh water, whisky duty, fishing grounds to bargain with in Brussels. Lovely.
Imagine if Salmond had full control of those resources instead of one hand tied behind his back.
So, I'm looking forward to the General Election.
Labour will need to defend their Westminster record, live of national TV. 13 years of betrayal of the core voters.
They can't assault the SNP's record at Holyrood while claiming its a 2 horse race against the tories.
Labour are finished at Westminster. They deserve to be. Some in Scotland
have not learned the lessons of history and they are doomed to relive it. It will be painful.
The people of NE Glasgow will suffer, and many of us too, along with them.
Their love affair with Labour will continue. Cheerleading for Gordon Brown's career.
A Scot, a successful Scot, how well he has done and he did it all for ... himself.
Willie Bain will be powerless to defend Springburn. But he'll have his spot at the trough so he'll be OK.
His mammy will be so pleased.
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Westminster as financially corrupt as previously
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6563587/Speaker-John-Bercows-official-residence-refurbished-for-45000.html
"Emails show how Mrs Bercow, who last week declared her desire to become a Labour councillor in Westminster, communicated with Parliamentary officials over the refurbishment requirements.
'The existing wall paper is very office/board-roomy,' she wrote on June 30th.. 'So, if at all possible, can the walls be redecorated.
'Can the TV be replaced with a larger one and moved into a more central location (like it or not, it will be a focal point for the kids!!!),' she continued. 'I assume it will have SKY and we’ll need a DVD player too if possible.' "
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#58 roll-on 2010
Cheers! I was also thinking about the expansion of the idea.
Say something like! could it be possible for the entire voting population of Glasgow north east to make a one off payment of say £10pounds, that would then be distributed to the poorest of families?.
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Glasgow NE is surely the poor wee battered wife of Labour, no matter how he treats her, this poor wee sole knows no alternative, too feart or ignorant, to change for the better.
Sad.
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#51 - "The SNP can't persuade these people, no matter who they choose for leader, so there's no point cutting their noses off to spite their face. They will have to achieve their aims despite such voters, not by persuading them."
Yep, totally agree, Rev. The result was not entirely unexpected but is still disappointing. But the SNP should accept that Glasgow/North Lanarkshire is largely a lost cause and stop chasing these votes. In fact, I'd go further than that and, following BT's argument, actually teach these voters that not only is their vote meaningful but comes with consequences. Labour have labelled the SNP as anti Glasgow so start with that. Reduce the funding Glasgow gets and spend the money in constituences where there is a chance of gaining votes. If we look at past elections, I thought the SNP had been magnaminous when they saved the casualty unit at Monklands, despite the people of Airdrie voting for Labour who blatantly stated they would close the unit. It has gained the SNP nothing and the majority of people in Airdrie would still vote Labour. I now think the SNP were wrong and should have let the casualty unit close. Your vote has consequences.
What can the SNP lose? Labour, and by extension the media, including the BBC, have accused them of being anti-glasgow. If they simply stopped giving Glasgow preferable treatment, the money saved could be used elsewhere, in constituencies where voters can be persuaded to vote for someone other than the muppet in the red rosette.
On an aside, now that Bain is secure (for the next 6 months at least), has there been any update on the East Coast line, or are the Westminster government at least having the decency to wait until the campaign slogans are cold before announcing that Glasgow will no longer be part of this service?
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61. derekbarker
Charity certainly has its place in helping the poor, but it's no substitute for helping people to become self-sufficient.
"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach him to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."
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Decent article in the Indy from John Curtice:
Labour's Glasgow victory is not all it seems.
Such limited excitement as there was during the final phase of the campaign was generated by rumours that the BNP were going to make a breakthrough. Hitherto, the party has struggled to make much impact in Scotland, where 'Britishness' lacks the potential poplar appeal it has in England. Nevertheless, Glasgow North East, which has been home to a significant number of asylum seekers, had already proved something of a 'hotspot' for the party. In the event its 4.9% of the vote was only a little above the 4.3% it won locally in the European elections in June. Little sign here, it seems, of a 'Question Time' effect.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University
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#13 Chris
You sound like a Labour sympathiser so:
What would you have Labour do ? What policies would you like to see ?
What is Labour for in your opinion ?
[just so you know, I think they are for themselves, hogs at the trough, with an interest in keeping the poor poor]
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#64 oldnat
Cant argue against that! sounds fair.
I was thinking more rounded than charity, say collective responsibility and good neighbouring, trying to bring a community together through shared values of ending poverty and not just feeding for a day but every day.
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comment on 33 by Moriarty
there is a wide misconception about what caused RBS and HBOS to fail
and being in or out of the UK would make little difference.
The Bank of Scotland was doomed when it joined the Halifax with all their
toxic dept which also brought Lloyds to their knees.
RBS was set up to fail by Barclays and the Dutch, and it was a card game
that Fred the Shred lost because of the blinkers he always wore !
Banks have many cleaver people working for them who are never given the
chance because of the politics in their management systems
this needs to change to allow them to grow free from a corrupt Government
Scotland will need a Bank of Scotland very soon
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63. ForteanJo
No, no, no, no! The last thing that's needed is for the SNP to adopt the tactics of the Labour Party! I still remember what happened to my small town in Ayrshire when they dared to vote in some Independents instead of Labour! We got nothing until the next election when the populace had been beaten into submission and understood there would be no funding until they returned to the fold.
Bullying and corruption Labour style is what we are trying to get away from!
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Urgent report to set out case for airport.
An urgent study in to the economic impact of Glasgow Airport is to be carried out amid fears for its future.
Glasgow and Renfrewshire Councils are in talks with the airport’s owner, BAA, about compiling a detailed assessment of the risks to the region over the next 30 years if the airport’s status were to decline.
It also appears that a recent rumour has been solidified:
Cash crisis airport’s T2 to shut in days.
For a number of years BAA have stated that they wished to rationalise the number of airports within the UK. It is paramount that they do not use this to shut down Glasgow airport. The effect on Scotland would be devastating.
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68. Tom
"cleaver people"
That is a particularly appropriate typo!
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63. ForteanJo
Your post along with Rev Campbell is precisely why the SNP didn't win. Insulting the electorate is not the way forward.
People didn't vote SNP because they didn't believe that they could or would change their lives. If the SNP couldn't make the connection with the voters they need to work harder on the message.
Your point re Monklands is particularly poor. So if an area doesn't vote SNP they should be denied public services? Really clever politics that, just feed the whole Edinburgh / Glasgow nonsense.
The only way major change happens in a democracy is by building a consensus. The SNP are failing to do that.
I also question the other posts complaining about negative campaigning. The question I would ask is have Labour pulled any stunts the SNP haven't done in the past? When the SNP were in opposition they used personal attacks and negative campaigning regularly.
If you don't want to be shot don't fly with the crows. The result of the poor campaigning by all our politicians is seen in the turnout figure.
So perhaps we can look forward to someone actually campaigning on the real issues and choices we face inthe future, although I wouldn't bet on it.
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66. govanite
Okay what mainstream political party in Scotland does anything other than keep the poor poor?
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#70
Actually I'm not sure I completely agree. I've long thought that there should probably only be one airport in the central belt. People are already flying less and given the rising cost of flying and the problem we will hit soon over liquid fuel supplies then this trend will probably continue.
We also should be flying less. I now refuse to fly to London on business because of the cost and the waste of time. It's easy to spend an entire day travelling for a meeting that lasts a couple of hours. In fact I won't now fly anywhere unless I'm absolutely forced to but use video conferencing instead.
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62. Stuart Urquhart
What is really sad is people who resort to insults instead of realising the limitations of their arguments.
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Online Ed Here
Expat writes:
I also question the other posts complaining about negative campaigning.
Why?
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63. At 10:41pm on 13 Nov 2009, ForteanJo wrote:
That is one of the worst posts I've ever seen. Can you imagine the reaction if the SNP were suicidal enough to try this tactic?
Ask your local SNP representative what they think of this policy.
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#45 derekbarker
"sometimes you just have to GNU what your doing?"
Thanks for the link, Derek. Amusing but not quite up to the Flanders original.
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I know this sounds ridiculous given the size of Scotland but having lived in Glasgow I think there is a bit of Glasgowcentric goes on.I have honestly been asked if I get Taggert and I now only live 25 minutes away (out there somewhere sort of thing)That said ,having watched the coverage of this election, can you blame the voters for their apathy when you see the incidious scare mongering and the imbalance of reporting ,it does make me question why bother if this is the tactics, what is going to be able to change?Jim Murphy pronouncing that "Glasgow speaks for Scotland " is pull your hair out time and perhaps HE should remember that the anti Glasgow thing works both ways,just as people in Glasgow may feel a bias against them ,so might the rest of us.surely in his role ,all of Scotland should be treated equally ? I am left wondering also who is the media aimed at,what is there purpose besides profit, because they are not reflecting my interests and this constant sniping from the press ,some reporters and the other political parties about ANYTHING the Scottish Government does is quite frankly soul destroying.Sorry this is a bit all over the place but you know what for a nano second you really could believe that instead of Scotland being paralyzed by fear of change or being cowed by the establishment, we had a chance to actually make things better.AAAHHH On the otherhand ,did listen to a talk that N Sturgeon gave recently and in reply to a question from the audience she actually stated -minority governments -it makes you work that bit harder and she looked like she relished the challenge !
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Tonight's Any Questions, from Cardiff probably is a near-perfect demonstration of the "establishment" line on Glasgow East. Unsurprisingly, Plaid weren't invited, leaving the field clear for an "official" unionist [Tim Montgomerie] and a "provo" one [Chuka Umunna]. The Tory was in particularly venomous form against the SNP without a clue of what he was pontificating on. The shape of things to come, I suspect.
The Glasgow NE question starts 22m 40s in to the prog and worth a listen, if only on the know thine enemy principle.
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32. U14094468
"As far as blaming Labour for the anti Glasgow smear aimed at the SNP; who do you think should be blamed for propogating such a lie?
I think that, on this one, blaming Labour is pretty justified."
Truthfully, at least to some degree, I have to disagree with you here. Very few political parties are above a negative campaign if they think that is what will work.
But I want to know why there was NO MEDIA that was willing to call on their many untruths. Not once did I see them taken to task or their negative ads held up to scrutiny. This is where the real scandal is, in my opinion.
(The rest in response to a variety of comments)
As for an electorate who would vote Labour no matter what, I've mentioned in the past having a father who would have and in fact never did vote anything but Democrat. We were, at least for the most part, served better by the Democrats in our part of the country than Glasgow is by Labour, but there were areas that weren't with the same attitude.
I am really not sure of the mindset that causes this but it isn't necessarily stupidity of even disinterest. It is a difficult one to understand. It is even harder to fight. I'm not sure fighting it is possible. Fortunately, it isn't universal even in Glasgow and certainly isn't in the rest of Scotland.
Absolutely, getting rid of Salmond, one of the most fearsome politicians in the UK, would be a terrible mistake and the SNP are not going to do it unless he decides to quit.
I happen to think that the longer it takes to get that referendum, the better it serves the SNP. To some degree the other parties know this, but they just plain don't have the balls to do anything about it. They'll vote it down. Then, once the Holyrood election comes around, the other parties may well get a kicking they won't soon forget--thanks in large part to Alex Salmond.
The future of the SNP and the future of Scotland lies at HOLYROOD--not at Westminster.
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#63,
I can see the new SNP slogan now....
SNP...or we send the boys round.
If you really think that Political Parties make advances by threatening the public in this manner, you are way wide of the mark. Just remember for a moment who serves who.
I've been following these blogs for 2 years now, and your post quite simply scrapes the bottom of the barrel. A disgrace.
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@54 "Why do you insult people?"
It's not an insult. If you vote for Labour literally regardless of anything, as the person interviewed on tonight's news claimed to do, "mindless" is an entirely accurate and fair description of your behaviour.
I'm not in the SNP, and reserve the right to hold and express that reasonable and rational position regardless of whether people moan about it. But since these electors are by their own declaration going to vote Labour no matter what, it would seem not to make a lot of difference to anything if anyone "insults" them or not. As far as I'm concerned these people are a write-off, electorally speaking. You might find that offensive, but Labour have written them off in far worse ways than that, and if they vote for them anyway then they deserve everything they get.
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@72 "People didn't vote SNP because they didn't believe that they could or would change their lives. If the SNP couldn't make the connection with the voters they need to work harder on the message."
No, that's not right. People didn't vote SNP because BY THEIR OWN ADMISSION they would never vote for anyone but Labour, no matter what anyone ever said to them or did for them. Why waste time and resources trying to talk to the deaf and blind?
The most practical thing the SNP could do - both for the SNP and for all of Scotland - is to ignore the likes of Glasgow NE entirely and hope they stay in their houses on polling day, complacent in the belief that they don't need to go and vote to get their Labour candidate in. That way their votes will inflict the minimum possible damage, and they can be carried along to a better Scotland without ever having to take any responsibility for it.
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83. Rev_S_Campbell
Being a naive kind of guy, until your comments of today, I'd taken the "Rev" bit of your monicker to suggest that you were a minister of some kind. Obviously not. Like to let us into the reason for it?
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@85 I see no contradiction between my (entirely real) title and anything I've said. The course of action detailed above IS without question the most practical one the SNP could take to improve the lives of everyone in Scotland, including Glasgow NE. Sometimes you have to help people despite themselves.
And I know of no holy book that forbids calling a spade a spade.
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#86,
Since you've deserted the last blog Reverend, I just thought I'd remind you, I'm still waiting for your conclusive evidence that Glasgow NE is, in fact "the dumbest constituency in Scotland" as you so eloquently put it.
However, I do commend you on one truth. There is no holy book that forbids calling a spade a spade. You, sir, are a numpty, and I trust you accept that with all of Gods grace.
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84. Rev_S_Campbell
I think we need to put it in less pejorative terms.
I don't think that the SNP has the assets to use to try to convinced someone who won't be convinced. But that isn't punishing them or saying they're stupid. I'm sure they're as smart and as dumb in proportion as any population. They may have lost hope. They may not see any point in trusting that the SNP can bring change.
But ANY political party has to pick the battles it has a chance on which to spend its time, money and people's time. There are a few times when a party may have those things to throw away, but I not very often. It's just smart to choose your battles.
So as far as elections, it might well be the smart thing for the SNP to write off Glasgow NE and E. And probably certain other Labour strongholds. They can then concentrate their resources on more vulnerable Labour and LibDem constituencies.
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As usual Hootsmon has a great headline:
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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Hah. Well they don't want you looking at that particular one, it appears. Well, most of you know that Conan the Librarian put the Hootsman headlines on his pseudepigrapha blog. I urge that you wander your way over there.
If there was any way to guarantee that people looked, trying to censor it SHOULD do it. I assume I know what they object to and it's not the reference to the Tories.
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#89 JRMacClure
As usual Hootsmon has a great headline:
Your link was not censored you inserted an ‘http’ after the URL that screwed it up.
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#89 JRMacClure
In fact if you have your status bar visible at the foot of the page and you hover your mouse curser over the link it will show the URL that you entered. It will show you were you made the mistake. Easily done I do it frequently by using cut and paste and not removing the spaces when the URL is pasted into the link template.
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Interesting article in the Tribune, a left wing rag:
Mood grows for “last-ditch” challenge to Brown.
MPs in favour of a challenge are telling colleagues that a change in leadership, coupled with an immediate announcement of an election to be held in March, would save Labour at least 50 seats, according to some recent polling, and, at worst, deny the Tories’ David Cameron a working majority.
Momentum for change has been fired by a Guardian report citing internal party polling which was said to suggest that Labour could be reduced to a rump of 120 MPs if Mr Brown leads it into the election.
The well-connected Jackie Ashley reveals the following sensational fact in her Sunday Guardian column:
Cameron's Eurosceptic wing will damage his government
Some Labour people may think I'm sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory.
The sign to look for will be next week when the chair for the PLP is up for grabs, when pro-Brown, incumbent Tony Lloyd stands down and just who replaces him.
I can’t see it happening… but as the saying goes ‘stranger things have happened at sea’.
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Just spotted this in the top stories section of google news.
Willie be another Labour letdown?
It finishes of by saying
"In my view, the only way to ever break that stranglehold is to vote for an independent Scotland - if only we had the bottle."
Is the Sun now supporting independence?
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91. Roll_On_2010
My apologies to the moderators then for thinking the worst.
Great headline.
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94. grownbordon
Heaven's above. When the boss sees that, will someone be fired?
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#94 grownbordon
It certainly looks that way from this article.
I don’t know whether to say it’s a good or bad thing. But the rest of the MSM are backing the unionist stance so at the end of the day if they help swing it for independence then who gives a monkey if they say - it’s the SUN wot done it.
But it does appear that they are knocking NuLabour in a sensible way and that can’t be a bad thing if they keep it up.
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#72 - "Your post along with Rev Campbell is precisely why the SNP didn't win. Insulting the electorate is not the way forward. "
Well you can show me the sentence/paragraph where I did insult the electorate or accept that, as usual, your criticisms are more about things in your own head rather than in reality.
"Your point re Monklands is particularly poor. So if an area doesn't vote SNP they should be denied public services?"
It is a fact that Labour policy was to close the casualty unit and, if we had a labour government at Holyrood there would now only be two units in Lanarkshire and Monklands wouldn't be one of them. That's what the people of Airdrie voted for and I know believe that's exactly what they should have got. Or do you go along with the thinking that what people vote for should be irrelevent?
"When the SNP were in opposition they used personal attacks and negative campaigning regularly. "
I'm sure, then, you can cite some examples to illustrate your argument. Or perhaps you can't.
"So perhaps we can look forward to someone actually campaigning on the real issues and choices we face inthe future, although I wouldn't bet on it."
I don't think this campaign will change any established practices, at least in Glasgow/Lanarkshire. As others have pointed out - when questioned directly, many weegies would vote labour regardles of what labour actually do (or don't do). I'm sorry, these people deserve ridicule and I understand why many on these boards (and elsewhere) choose to do so.
The SNP have tried to be the bigger man, the better man, throughout. It has gained them nothing and many, like yourself, don't even acknowledge their attempts. So why bother? People are happy enought with the dirty tactics exibited by Labour and they seem to work. So go with them.
Conserve available resources and use where voting intentions can be influenced, not squander them in arears where the red rosette in king.
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#77 - "That is one of the worst posts I've ever seen. Can you imagine the reaction if the SNP were suicidal enough to try this tactic?"
What do you find objectionable about it, Neil? How can it be a suicidal tactic when the people of these constituencies will vote labour regardless? All I'm calling for is for the SNP to stop favouring Glasgow and equalise the funding across other parts of Scotland. Are you claiming Glasgow is a special case that deserves more money than elsewhere?
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#82 - "I've been following these blogs for 2 years now, and your post quite simply scrapes the bottom of the barrel. A disgrace."
See my response to Neil's post. Give me your answers to the same questions. Then you can pass criticism.
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97. Roll_On_2010
I have a really hard time seeing Murdoch approving the Sun backing independence.
We might shouldn't read too much into one sentence, but that is a shocker. Yes, I think, as much as I despise Murdoch and all of his works and ilk, the Sun supporting independence would be a good thing.
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Plan for bigger trains between London and Glasgow ‘derailed’
Passengers may miss out on longer trains intended to run between London and Glasgow, sparking a fresh political row over cross-border rail services.
It is feared the UK Government has decided not to take up an option to buy extra carriages for the 21 tilting Pendolino trains running from London to Glasgow.
The SNP last night demanded “urgent clarification” on the UK Government plans to purchase extra carriages for the trains operating on the West Coast Main Line. The Nationalists claim an announcement of the bad news was deliberately delayed to avoid affecting Thursday’s Glasgow North East by-election.
Well it does appear that NuLabour has started letting Glasgow down even before ‘oor wullie’ has signed up as an MP at Westmidden.
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61. derekbarker & 64. oldnat
I will repost this it was originally in response to 60. oldnat on Brians "who you gonna call". But it came in at the end just when comments had stopped being taken on this topic
I Think that the whole benefits system is a bit of a joke. People on benefits, if able should be forced to do some work. Maybe not full time but say 3-4 days week, therefore giving them time to find a real job as well. They could be used by cash strapped Councils to avoid incidences like this from happening. I mean if there's work to be done and the council can't afford to pay some one to do it, the Council should be able to draw from a pool of people on benefits.
It is also a great opportunity missed there could be schemes where vacant commercial properties in the area could be offered heavily discounted to entrepreneurs willing to start up businesses using people on benefits as staff. After an agreed time scale say 12-18 months, or if earlier these businesses become profitable, the employees come off benefits and the employer starts paying their wages. This would encourage businesses to move into areas with low unemployment.
I'm also sure that the majority of people who are genuinely on benefits because they can't find work would be happy to work. Whether it was in some kind of scheme as I've mentioned or voluntary/charity work. this would prevent them from having large gaps of unemployment in their CV's, which would otherwise make them even more unemployable.
Now maybe I have missed something that makes this idea completely unworkable?
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*cough*
This is off topic but except, perhaps, as proof that I do read BBC News. Just let me mention that although I have been known to compost peeing on it is weird.
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SNP ripping Glasgow off again:
£80m increase in the cost of 2014 Games
The Scottish Government and Glasgow City Council are poised to pump tens of millions of pounds more into the budget for the 2014 Commonwealth Games.
An announcement is expected within days that the bill for the Games has risen £80 million, with the Scottish Government forking out an extra £60m and the council up to £10m, according to business leaders. The source of the remaining extra money is unclear.
Does anybody notice the obvious bias on this article?
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Cue the Hootsmon:
Glasgow North East by-election: SNP's bubble has burst, insists jubilant Labour.
Claiming the SNP had been "monstered", Labour's Holyrood leader, Iain Gray, said it was "the best ever result for a sitting government in a by-election".
The Grey man says 33.2% turnout - best ever result.
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99. ForteanJo
I don't think that Glasgow should be punished for voting Labour nor would it be a good idea to give Labour a weapon to say to Western Scotland that the SNP was attacking them. Everyone knows the whole anti-Glasgow thing was a lie, so it shouldn't be turned into the truth.
But that leaves a legitimate question. WHY does Glasgow get more per capita than other areas of Scotland and is it fair that they do?
I have seen people from other parts of Scotland complain about their needs being neglected. Maybe immediately after this election isn't the best time for it to be considered, but this is a peculiar situation that would appear to be unfair.
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NuLabour - New tax scheme:
Queen's Speech: pay to have your DNA removed from database.
Innocent people will have to pay £200 to fight to have their DNA removed from the national database under proposals in the Queen's Speech next week.
For those that can afford it.
Ha well I guess it's for the few and not the many.
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96. JRMacClure
Haha, yes I think so! Google says it was published 6 hours ago, so 02:00 in the morning. Maybe the boss hasn't seen it yet.
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#108 My blog
Whoops stuffed the URL up…. left a space in it….. aaaargh!
NuLabour - New tax scheme:
Queen's Speech: pay to have your DNA removed from database.
Innocent people will have to pay £200 to fight to have their DNA removed from the national database under proposals in the Queen's Speech next week.
For those that can afford it.
Ha well I guess its for the few and not the many.
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#109 grownbordon
#96. JRMacClure
The article in question is pretty tame compared to an earlier English one.
PM couldn’t even get our name right.
The Sun got a massive backlash from the English public over the article.
It does look as though the Sun is playing politics to get NuLabour and as I intimated in an earlier post IMO I think it best that the SNP stay at least arms length from the Sun. The SNP could be sat at the wrong end of a backlash if the Sun goes stupid.
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New islands discovered off the east coast of Scotland.
source: Met Office.
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New islands discovered off the east coast of Scotland.
source: Met Office.
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Brown: Britain best placed to weather the recession.
Britain Only G7 Nation Still in Recession.
Guido provides the sources: Eurostat and OECD
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New islands discovered off the east coast of Scotland.
source: Met Office.
oops messed up my link will try again
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103. grownbordon
A couple of points to bear in mind.
Councils sub-contract a lot of work to legitimate businesses. Your scheme would put more people on the dole queue. What about the other issues, employing people has costs you know, also requires organisation and effort. Labour is only one part of the equation.
Empty shops at discounts, what about the competition? Would you like someone on a large government subsidy opening a rival to your business?
Sound bites don't always translate into sensible policies.
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For those of you using greasemonkey a good script is Greased Lightbox
It will display images from links like in my 115 in the middle of your screen without actually navigating away from the page you are on. if you click outside the image it will remove the image, or you can click the next arrow in the top right corner and it will go to any other images that may have been linked to from this blog.
It was designed to improve google image search but works quite nicely here.
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116. northhighlander
Thanks for your reply.
Yes this is a rough idea that would obviously need a lot of refining, and every proposal would need to be evaluated on a case by case basis. I am not speaking about a permanent subsidy it is a temporary one to encourage businesses to open in areas where the is little employment. I'm also speaking about areas where there is no competition. We have all driven past entire retail/office buildings that are completely boarded up.
And I know Councils sub-contract a lot of work to legitimate businesses but there is also a lot of work that needs to be done, that does not get done, such as the example with Aberdeen city Council that I cited in my link.
Surely it is better to have someone that we are already paying, go out and do this work that isn't getting done, than it is to have them sitting at home doing sweet FA. also the thought of having to work for your benefits might encourage people seeking employment to try that little bit harder.
When I travel, I often observe what cheap labour does for other countries, where you can see armies of workers up at the crack of dawn every morning tending to the plants on central reservations, sweeping the streets etc..
In contrast to the central reservation on the A90, between Stonehaven and Aberdeen which over the recent years has been becoming increasingly littered with rubbish, tyres and dead animals.
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@103 "Now maybe I have missed something that makes this idea completely unworkable?"
The fact that forced labour is slavery?
If there's work to be done, by all means get people to do it. But pay them minimum wage, or they're in every meaningful sense slaves. Are you REALLY saying that anyone unfortunate enough to be made redundant should become some sort of sub-citizen, deprived of the protection of the laws the rest of us enjoy? Have you any concept of the knock-on effect an army of millions of available slave labourers would have on the rest of the job market?
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@87 "Since you've deserted the last blog Reverend, I just thought I'd remind you, I'm still waiting for your conclusive evidence that Glasgow NE is, in fact "the dumbest constituency in Scotland" as you so eloquently put it."
Yawn. I already did. If you have alternative criteria (sorry, big words again) for measuring intelligence other than academic qualifications, feel free to provide us with them - as you've already been asked to - and we'll see where we get.
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Regarding Credit Unions in Glasgow, they are already widespread if not necessarily thriving. The disturbing thing is that many Glaswegians at the bottom rung are unable to meet even the undemanding criteria of CUs. I'm pretty sure there are people who feel more comfortable borrowing money from local loansharks whose only criteria is that you have legs to be broken rather than go the regulated and sympathetic route of the Credit Union; a metaphor for their relationship with Labour perhaps?
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#103,
Yes, you've missed the minimum wage.
What about getting petty criminals to do some work instead of taking up places in jail which are needed for violent offenders?
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119. Rev_S_Campbell
"If there's work to be done, by all means get people to do it"
OK point taken. Obviously supply and demand would come into it. Maybe it could be a voluntary scheme with a small top-up on your benefits? then those who really have the desire to get out and do some work, could.
Like you say If there's work to be done.
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104. JRMacClure
I must be weird then, its liquid nitrogen and free.
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99. At 07:17am on 14 Nov 2009, ForteanJo wrote:
#77 - "That is one of the worst posts I've ever seen. Can you imagine the reaction if the SNP were suicidal enough to try this tactic?"
What do you find objectionable about it, Neil? How can it be a suicidal tactic when the people of these constituencies will vote labour regardless? All I'm calling for is for the SNP to stop favouring Glasgow and equalise the funding across other parts of Scotland. Are you claiming Glasgow is a special case that deserves more money than elsewhere?
Suicidal tactic - the media would slaughter the SNP in the press. It certainly would come across as "vote for us or we send the boys round".
And how is the SNP favouring Glasgow? What is your evidence? I can't see any town or city being treated more favourably. Some could argue Kilmarnock got special treatment with Salmond's personal appearance on the street.
The SNP want to raise Scotland up. You don't do that by neglecting parts of it simply because they do not vote for your party.
MPs and MSPs are elected to serve ALL constituents, regardless of politcal allegiance, race, religion, creed, culture, sexual orientation or educational level.
It is acceptable for a political party to avoid campaigning in an area they are unlikely to win. It is unacceptable for a party in Government to neglect an area for political reasons.
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Onlone Ed Here
As expected the press in Scotland are using the by-election result in order to create mischief.
Click Here
The article above airbrushes much of the Labour smears from the campaign as it does the refusal again of the Scottish media to tackle the Labour candidate.
The article makes mention of a west coast group of SNP activists and a website without giving any details. It also contains a childish dig at Alex Salmond who attends the meeting of the Brotish/Irish council.
Nicola Sturgeon's statement that from now on the SNP will tackle Labour misrepresentation head on is buried within the article.
Eevery commentator [bar one] is portraying this as Labour having increased their vote. However the 53% at the last general election was a freak [Socialist Labour taking 4000 votes]; Labour would have polled around 67%.
This election result showed a small movement to the SNP - disappointing to us who expected the SNP to get within 2000 of Labour.
The issue that will not be addressed but is being acknowledged is that Labour are abandoning any references to Westminster in these by-elections. The SNP candidate tried to draw attention to them but if the media steadfastly refuse to report it then it may as well not have happened.
So, in the aftermath of the result we are being told that:
David Kerr was not an effective candidate.
Willie Bain was very effective
There was just as much negative campaigning from the SNP tha from Labour
The SNP have been derailed, lost momentum etc etc.
The truth is probably that those people who vote Labour were given no reason to change their vote because the news outlets they garner their news from did not report the facts.
They will never have seen Bain paralysed by Bernard Ponsonby, they will never have seen STV's excellent debate with all the candidates baecause these programmes were broadcast late at night.
They will never have seen or heard Bain being interrogated on his by-election themes by anyone at the BBC.
They will have seen a plethora of stories about David Kerr 'brandishing a gun', 'being a member of a religious sect', 'smears about his birth', fabricated 'gaffes', and of course the slogan 'Ripping off Glasgow' as well as Purcell's bizarre caim that the SNP are actually "anti-Glasgow".
Muths. smears and misrepresentation were challenged daily by the SNP but simply never reported.
One man who did challenge the knife crime policy was Strathclydes Chief Inspectort House, who described it as unworkable. The Daily Record ran a smear story about House within days.
From the outset I asked whether Baib would be scrutinised on his campaign themes and suggested that he might not - I was correct.
I will admit that I thought that the people of Glasgow East would refuse to vote Labour in the same numbers - I was wrong.
However, do not believe the tosh that is being printed in the press. Poorly educated, low aspiration and despair, the people of Glagow North East were not informed by the institutions set up to do just that.
The people voted accordingly.
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#87
People aren't dumb. Like everything else the brain needs to be exercised to be kept fit. In areas such as GNE where demand for skilled (whether practical or academic) people is low then it is inevitable that aspiration levels will also be low. That then means that educational attainment is going to be generally low as well because that is also mainly driven by demand. You will of course get a small minority that will pull themselves out of this vicious circle but they are very few.
In short - if you want to really have a positive impact on an area such as GNE you need to give them something both intellectually and physically demanding to get their teeth into.
So build them a car factory or something similar.. Create the demand for engineers, technicians, designers and others and even areas like GNE will respond.
Of course - given the moronic attitude of the Treasury and their chums in the financial institutions this will never happen. That's why we need independence. Get rid of their malign influences and things will get better albeit slowly..
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The SNP should not punish people for not voting for them. That is totally wrong and counterproductive. This is a by-product of the frustration many feel with what has gone on here.
I think the positive vision of Scotland that the SNP talk of will eventually see us through to independence. However, as it stands right now in Westminster elections I think the SNP need to get tougher, much tougher. They need to get the gloves off with Nulab. Any Nulab lie needs to be rebutted as quickly as possible. And if the press don't want to help in this end scream the place down until they do. This is twice in a row Nulab have shifted the ground at an election and twice now that the SNP have failed to nip it in the bud. The SNP should do everything they can to destroy the charlatan Nulab. But having said all that maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the SNPs strategists are right and plodding patiently and politely on is the right way to proceed here. But it's not the way I'd proceed.
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#63. ForteanJo
Jo,you are no doubt dissapointed by the by-election result but it's making you talk nonsense about SNP prospects in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire.
In 2007 the SNP reduced Labour's majority in Airdrie & Shotts from 9000 to 1400.Since the SNP have saved the A&E it's all to play for there.
There are 14 Nationalist MSPs in Glasgow,Central and West of Scotland electoral regions combined.And in the Euro vote the SNP did well in those places including beating Labour in South Lanarkshire.
The significance of John Mason's win has in no way been nullified by what happened in the adjacent seat.In the other Glasgow seat next to Glasgow NE,Glasgow North,Electoral Calculus have been predicting an SNP gain for some time.
So while there wasn't much cheer for Nationalists on Thursday night there's plenty of reason for optimism about SNP electoral prospects in that part of Scotland.
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122. snowthistle
"Yes, you've missed the minimum wage.
What about getting petty criminals to do some work instead of taking up places in jail which are needed for violent offenders?"
Yes I think this is a good idea. The type of work available to petty criminals would be an issue though. Leaving them largely unsupervised in the community might not be a good idea, as I don't think they would get much done, other than committing further petty crime.
How about a voluntary scheme that people on benefits are encouraged to take part in, with a limited number of places which is set accordingly in each area depending on the available work. this would pay the same amount as being on benefits or the minimum wage, depending on which one is the greater amount. The participants must show regular proof that they are seeking employment to keep their spot. You may then create a scenario where you have a waiting list of people wanting to sign up.
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Online Ed Here
Let's stay positive people, one small skirmish in Labour's own turf is nothing to be overtly concerned about.
Yet again Labour and the media have shown their hand - the SNP have not.
The SNP quite rightly did not flood resources into this area, it was not wise. However, Kerr did highlight Glasgow Council's policy of reducing teacher numbers, the UK Labour party's wrecking of the economy, the cut to Scotland's budget, the withholding of Barnet consequentials with respect to the Lomdon Olympics.
It is not his fault that the media simply ignored these issues.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8360208.stm
This could get interesting.......
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Wow a big contrast in the suns earlier article
Willie be another Labour letdown?
And this one
bye-bye-election
The P&J's SNP have been ‘monstered’ made me chuckle. I would expect a little bit better from them.
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131 EA
Very true. I have said on another blog day that the SNP have not shown their hand but hopefully have something in their armoury. Springburn was a write-off and Labour have used resources and the usual soundbites before and after the by-election that will come back to haunt them.
I would say to the Springburn folk at the next election. Do you want another 30 years of Scottish oil/gas revenues to be wasted on the UK to prop up policies or would you like some of it spent in your constituency. I mean we're only talking roughly £300 billion!
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132 Neil
Oh know the rest of Scotland will be ripped off! What are Labour going to say now? Idiots!
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135. At 11:59am on 14 Nov 2009, SchoolTieColours wrote:
And the SNP will get the blame.......
I don't know the truth of the story, and am waiting for the official announcement. But guaranteed it will be used in next year's GE.
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133 GB
What a load of tosh the bye-bye bit is! How many mariginals are there for the SNP to take from Labour and how many from Libdems? I think the Libdems vote are sneaking close to the SNP(Brownedov may feel this as he's ex Lib). The GE is all to play for and the signs are positive for the SNP. You can't use Springburn as it's a safe Labour seat and the media were foaming at the mouth with smears. This won't affect the more discerning voter across the country.
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136 Neil
I think you miss my point. The SNP will have to spend more money in Glasgow. I thought they were ripping them off?
or
How can funds be found for the Olympics but not the Commonwealth Games.
That's my perception.
I've read your posts on previous blogs and you seem to have a very long fence! When you occasionally fall off it's on top of the SNP! Labour have abandoned all the principles I once voted for - do you agree?
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Hi Ladies and Gents
Interesting reading for the most part and some of them are quite correct in their analysis of the SNP leadership and its direction.
I was actually in the area a few times when the SNP activists and campaigners where doing their stuff.....very very poor indeed, they had no strategy...no slogan and where completely on the back foot from day one with the SLP's down and dirty campaign. (although it pains me to say it the SLP actually fought a brilliant attack campaign)
Why where the SNP not on the streets of Springburn/NE every single day demolishing the SLP's deplorable record?
What a perfect situation, 70 years of Labour rule and the place is still one of the many running sores on the face of Scotland.
We should have been in there shouting from the rooftops, telling all the electorate why and how they have been taken for granted and used by an organisation that has no care but how to line their own pockets.
It was an open goal!!!….but what did we get from the SNP heirarchy?……
A third rate candidate(at best), having rings run round him by the unionist press…......making schoolboy debating mistakes and proving all by himself what an unelectable and dismal nonentity he was.
The blame for this can only be left at the party executives door…!!
Where is the talent! the political streetfighters! the POLICIES!!, that can make a difference within the SNP?
My sad assumption is that the SNP leadership are gripped with fear (fear of losing what they have!)….nothing else makes sense…..
A golden opportunity to destroy the Labour party in its own heartland and they passed it up.
You see!…this is the fundamental reason why the left have not mobilised to the SNP….In my opinion nationalists from the left are in the majority in Scotland but they will not hitch their wagon to an SNP whose leadership have no real understanding of what it means to be a socialist and a nationalist………they equate socialism with Labour (so so so wrong!!) as history has proven.
As an example, a few years back I offered to help out my local SNP branch (not as a member just as a sympathiser you understand)…….but suspicion over my previous membership of the SLP knocked that on the head…this same mindset exists from top to bottom of the SNP and I see no prospect of it changing soon….(mores the pity)
It is my belief that until the SNP set out a definite left of centre path they will sadly forever struggle to be the dominant party in Scotland.
One slight change in attitude and direction and they can be the only party which envisions ALL the WORTH, ALL the DREAMS and ALL the HOPES of everyone poor and wealthy alike in Scotland.
Cheers
Charlie
PS The SNP needs characters with the force and charisma of a Tommy Sheridan or a Jimmy Earlie or me ;-)
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138. At 12:25pm on 14 Nov 2009, SchoolTieColours wrote:
Whoa! I've not made a single comment bar any additional costs will be blamed on the SNP! I'm waiting for the official announcement before I say anything one way or the other. Don't assume because I post a link I'm having a go at the SNP.
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For Labour, an excellent result. A comprehensive victory over their most bitter rivals, the SNP. Almost as thorough a gubbing as United inflicted on the Dark Blues in their "friendly" on Tuesday. Is Gordon Brown, then, a shoe-in to return to Downing Street as PM rather than occasional dinner guest? Behave yourself. Is it, then, "game on" for the General Election, as the new MP Willie Bain (to whom congratulations) suggested? Understandable exuberance from the newly elected one - but an extrapolation too far.It will give Labour hope that they can forestall Alex Salmond's aim of 20 Scottish seats.
A very poor and rather triumphalist political analysis Brian.
For Labour it wasn't an excellent result though it was a comprehensive victory. If the SNP had previously held the seat or their share of the vote had collapsed then that would have been a, "gubbing", but the SNP vote held up despite the relentless media barrage in Scotland and the attempt to make it a BNP/Labour fight by the UK media in order to deny the SNP any publicity.
Voting in Glasgow NE appears tribal where the vote is for the party, right or wrong, in pretty much the same way as fans support a football team because the vote doesn't appear to have changed much between the halcyon days of Tony Blair's coronation in 1997 and the fag-end of the current Labour Government, bogged down in expenses scandals, surveillance and ID card plans and a slavish following of the neo-cons in the States which has tied Britain down in an endless war in Afghanistan.
Glasgow North East is a new constituency which replaced Glasgow Springburn in the 2005 election but it has roughly the same boundaries and it is still close enough look at previous election results. From this nothing has changed. Broadly speaking Labour gets around two thirds of the vote, the SNP a fifth and the rest is distributed among the others. The Labour party may be crowing about the result but it's just business as usual in Glasgow NE and nothing much has changed apart from a lower turnout.
It is a problem for the SNP in that they haven't made a breakthrough but Glasgow NE was probably one of the toughest nuts in Scotland to crack. I don't think this result has any bearing on how the rest of Scotland will vote in a General Election. I've put in the previous electoral results to show how nothing has changed in the electorate's voting patterns in Glasgow Springburn/NE between 1997 and 2009 despite expenses scandals, financial collapse in the banking system, Iraq, Afghanistan and the assault on civil liberties in the UK all on the current Labour Government's watch.
Looking at the results it appears that the campaigning from all sides made no difference and the constituency voted as it has always voted. A much better analysis of the results than your effort would be to say that the Labour vote held firm and the SNP also retained their support but the Lib-Dem vote went into free-fall when compared with 1997 the last time they fought the seat.
The results for 1997 (Springburn)
M Martin Labour 22,534 71.36%
J Brady SNP 5,208 16.49%
M Holdsworth Conservative 1,893 6.00%
J Alexander LibDem 1,349 4.27%
J Lawson Scottish Socialist 407 1.29%
A Keating Referendum 186 0.59%
The results for 2001 (Springburn)
Michael Martin Speaker (Lab) 16,053 66.6%
Sandy Bain SNP 4,675 19.4%
Carolyn Leckie Scottish Socialist 1,879 7.8%
Daniel Houston Scottish Unionist 1,289 5.3%
Richard Silvester Ind 208 0.9%
The results for 2005 (Glasgow NE)
Martin M.J.* Speaker 15,153 53.32%
McLaughlin J.F. SNP 5,019 17.66%
Kelly D. Ms. Socialist Labour 4,036 14.20%
Campbell G.M. Scottish Socialist 1,402 4.93%
Houston D. Scottish Unionist Party 1,266 4.45%
McLean S. BNP 920 3.24%
Chambers J. Ind 622 2.19%
The results for the 2009 by-election
William Bain Labour 12,231 59.39%
David Kerr SNP 4,120 20%
Ruth Davidson Conservatives 1,075 5.22%
Charlie Baillie British National Party 1,013 4.92%
Tommy Sheridan Solidarity 794 3.86%
Eileen Baxendale Liberal Democrats 474 2.30%
David Doherty Scottish Greens 332 1.61%
John Smeaton Jury Team 258 1.25%
Kevin McVey Scottish Socialist Party 152 0.74%
Mikey Hughes Independent 54 0.26%
Louise McDaid Socialist Labour Party 47 0.23%
Mev Brown Independent 32 0.16%
Colin Campbell Labour and Tory Tilt 13 0.06%
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"This is the best reslut for a sitting Government in any by-election - ever"
Iain Gray.
So Labour campaigned in Glasgow NE as if it was a Holyrood by-election and as soon as the result is in it's to be regarded at last as a Westminster vote.
Since Mr. Gray takes such an interest in by-election history he might take a look,once the euphoria of victory has passed,at a now rather forgotten by-election on 26 October 1978.
Labour held Berwick and East Lothian on that day with their candidate John Home Robertson increasing the party's majority by 4 percent.A superb result for a governing party in the middle of economic chaos.
No doubt it gave Callaghan and the party great hopes for the general election a few months away.
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The attacks made by some here on the people of Glasgow North East are both distressing and counter-productive. Places like Glasgow North East are the reason why Scotland desperately needs independence, they are on the sharp end of the inequality, social division and lack of opportunity produced by the Westminster system. Abandoning those communities makes the minority of nationalists who advocate such a policy every bit as bad as the Union they so rightly criticise.
I am reminded of Bertolt Brecht's poem The Solution
After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
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Good to see lots of positive comments on here. As I said earlier, I was disappointed yesterday but on reflection I became more upbeat. We've had defeats before but as the years pass we get stronger and stronger.
I remember when I first got interested in the SNP and Independence, I wanted to convert everyone to voting SNP. It took me ages to realise that it wasn't possible or indeed necessary. Traditionally strong Labour areas are not really anti-Independence. Many of those voters will actually vote 'yes'. That's why the unionists fear a referendum.
Those who have been interested in politics for a few years come to realise that it is the swing seats that matter, where a significant minority will change the colour of a seat. Some are motivated by self-interest, some by a desire to do the right thing. They listen to the campaigns and ask questions. That is always the election battleground. That's why NE Glasgow is a mess, Labour don't fight for the vote, they don't ask for the vote. It is always assumed to be there come election time. The people have sold themselves short without receiving anything in return. They have honoured their family traditions and sold out their grandchildren.
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InfrequentAllele2:
#143.
Do we not have a right to be critical? It's our resources being used. I still believe those resources have been wrongly used, all resources put into use to create a welfare system should be a crime against humanity. It seriously can not be good to have individuals 'just surviving'...
Besides if Scotland does become independent we'd have these discussions. If Scotland was independent now and creating cuts, you may expect a far more critical crowd. Glasgow should not always expect to be carried.
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I will rephrase a point I earlier made. If the welfare system leads to dependency, it should be a considered a crime against humanity. Just before individuals begin to pretend that they are clever by taking what I wrote out of context.
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Why are there comments implying that somehow Glasgow is being subsidised by the rest of Scotland? It has parallels with the criticism by some that Scotland is somehow subsidised by the rest of the UK.
Every city and town has its affluent and not so affluent areas.
Not everyone in Glasgow NE wants to be on benefits. Neither are all of the residents "thick". I personally know two people who live there, both with degrees.
The comments are causing division on this board between SNP and independence supporters.
If you must be critical, at least be constructive.
(I'm not a weegie by the way, nor do I live there)
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145. Of course you have the right to be critical. But criticise the system, not the victims.
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InfrequentAllele2:
#148.
I do criticise the system, however the people are the problem too. The people are responsible for the type of politics for their area, but what will change for voting for the Labour party? Labour, afterall is traditionally working-class and will protect those on benefits by claiming those very people are somehow the vunerable in our society. Do these people honestly believe that an unproductive area can survive using socialist thinking? It may sound good having extra funding for schools and hospitals but neither can directly give you money to feed your children or actually give you anything of use.
How can we continue to prop up individuals for generations? Isn't there more to live for then simply scraping-by?
Neil_Small147:
#147.
It's the West-East divide. It's also no suprise that Glasgow receives more per head compared to other parts of Scotland, unlike UK financial figures we know where the money goes. Could Glasgow survive if funding was reduced to match other parts of Scotland?
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I mentioned trams to a couple from Edinburgh today, I cannot tell you what they said it would be removed.
Suffice it to say ,
Over budget
Utterly messy
No one wanted the thing other than the Labour/liberal/conservative bleeps or " chumps" as we now know from Mr Mandelson.
And why not electric buses.
I could only tell them what I believe to be true, the politics of spite and ignorance are alive and well and working against Scotland with the help of a biased media.
Has anyone heard anything about the voting fraud ?
It occurred to me that we might find much is made of a small incident in the hope it may mask a bigger.
Just a thought!
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Brian,
I think you were quite right that David Kerr seemed to be holding back, but I don't think he held back in order to refrain from being "Abrasive."
The SNP knew that they weren't going to win this one. This seat, Glasgow North East, formerly Glasgow Springburn, is the place where the Labour movement in scotland began. It was this constituency.
John MacLean came from Springburn, and he's basically the father of Scottish Socialism and Scottish Nationalism. He believed in Socialism through independence.
If you tally up the radical socialist votes from this constituency including, I would argue, Mev Brown, you get 1030 votes, enough to bump the BNP into fifth place. If there had been a single socialist campaign, the BNP would have been further down the list.
People in Glasgow NE remember old Labour. That's the party they belong to, the party their parents and grandparents belonged to, and that's the culture of Glasgow NE, and has been for almost a century.
Please don't forget that the SNP raised their percentage of the vote in Glasgow NE since the last election, and remember: This is the best result the SNP has Received in Glasgow NE in 35 years!
This is not in any case a hit to the SNP's momentum. The SNP fought for this seat because they're following the same strategy that won Barack Obama the presidency: Howard Dean's 50 state strategy.
It's the same reason the Tories (God be praised for them pushing the BNP into 4th) ran a candidate.
The strategy is this: You run a candidate for every seat in every election even if you can't win. Because you're not fighting for *this* election. You're fighting for the next national election, and maybe that's an independence referendum, maybe it's Holyrood, maybe it's the regional vote.
The SNP held back because they knew they weren't going to win. They ran a candidate who was one of the bright, rising stars of the SNP. He's attractive, he's smart, he's elite, and he's cool. He's not a good fit for the working class environment of Glasgow North East.
But he is a good fit for the SNP, and he's a good face to represent the SNP to the people who will respond better to the SNP.
If the SNP runs a working class joe, to use American parlance, then they're running someone who looks like a Labour candidate.
This is their last chance to show of electorally before the next general election, and rather than pandering to one seat, they ran a candidate with their eyes on the next general election.
David Kerr wasn't running in order to win a seat where the SNP had as much hope for victory as George W Bush would if he ran for EU President.
He was running in order to win the next election.
The SNP wasn't holding back for fear of alienating Glasgow NE. Glasgow NE is home base for labour, and they weren't going to win.
The SNP is keeping their powder dry for the next election. Glasgow NE wasn't about a by election, Brian, it was about 2010.
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#125 - "the media would slaughter the SNP in the press. It certainly would come across as "vote for us or we send the boys round"."
I take it you belive all those "SNP are anti-Glasgow" headlines weew completely imaginary then? The media already slaughtered the SNP. Might as well be hung for a sheep as for a lamb, as the saying goes.
"And how is the SNP favouring Glasgow? What is your evidence? "
Glasgow gets more spending per head of population than anywhere else in Scotland. That is a matter of public record. Aberdeen gets the least spending. Equalise the spending, that's all I'm calling for. Not spend less per head in Glasgow than anywhere else, just don't spend more. Some would call that fairness. Many unionists call it fairness when debating the Barnett formula so why not here?
"The SNP want to raise Scotland up. You don't do that by neglecting parts of it simply because they do not vote for your party."
You don't do that from the opposition back benches either. The SNP need to learn to pick their fights. There are some areas where they will never win. They should concede that and spend their resources in areas where they can win.
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133. grownbordon
"Wow a big contrast in the suns earlier article
Willie be another Labour letdown?
And this one
bye-bye-election
"
Want to bet somebody got smacked down but good for giving their real opinion?
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Everyone seems to know why the results of this by-election are the way they are, but I never see many feeds as to why the people in Glasgow NE actually vote the way they do and how they think. I am sure many of them will be aware and shocked at the dismissive opinions about them that are going around. What is their response to that? Does anyone actually meet them and engage them in forthright discussion? Perhaps the SNP need to be in the consituency all the time, not just pre-election, talking, trying to solve problems and show that they care about the community. If it's a hard nut to crack then they should be putting the effort in to crack it.
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"The SNP held back because they knew they weren't going to win. They ran a candidate who was one of the bright, rising stars of the SNP. He's attractive, he's smart, he's elite, and he's cool. He's not a good fit for the working class environment of Glasgow North East.
But he is a good fit for the SNP, and he's a good face to represent the SNP to the people who will respond better to the SNP."
Erm, not anymore he's not. The little nugget from his previous attempt to win a seat - ie the birthplace - means this will hang over his head constantly now.
Many politicians do this this type of tactic, in order to gather as much support as possible. He was unfortunate enough to be caught out. And he is not a politicsl star to be honest. But to be fair he is miles above his Labour opponent.
152. At 5:13pm on 14 Nov 2009, ForteanJo:
How do you equalize spending? You have to equalize employment opportunties for starters. How do you do that? Glasgow has a greater population than the entire NE of Scotland (where I come from incidently).
One bye-election has highlighted the divisions that exist within Scotland. How on earth can we survive independently?
Those in favour of the union must be loving it.
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152. ForteanJo
Not only does Glasgow get more per capita, it gets substantially more per capita. I have seen people from other parts of Scotland say that what actually exists is a PRO-Glasgow bias. (regardless of the rather silly politics of the bye-election).
This just seems to me like it would be a reasonable issue to look at. It is pretty normal for areas to be "punished" for voting the wrong way but that doesn't mean it's a good idea. (I live in a state that was regularly underfunded by federal funds during Republican administrations) And even if they considered it, there ARE areas of Glasgow and west Scotland that are or might be SNP, so it wouldn't even be smart in that way. I don't think that the SNP should go the way of punishing Glasgow, but this is a legitimate concern to address if other parts of Scotland are being UNDER funded.
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154. At 5:23pm on 14 Nov 2009, hamish42:
Nicola Sturgeon came up with the answer on Friday morning - Labour are failing, but none of the other parties came up with anything to convince people to vote otherwise.
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#154 hamish42
If it's a hard nut to crack then they should be putting the effort in to crack it.
That's an interesting question. I'm in Kirkcaldy + Cowdenbeath but close to Glenrothes. K+C is a pretty safe seat for Labour anyway and if Global stands that's an extra 3000 votes for "our boy". Should I offer to help the SNP in K+C, where they don't stand a chance at the GE, or in Glenrothes which is probably much more winnable, especially after all the work done in that bye-election? I reckon that it would be better to go to Glenrothes for the GE as there will be a bye-election in K+C after Labour gets trashed in the UK. What do you advise?
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158. handclapping
"Should I offer to help the SNP in K+C, where they don't stand a chance at the GE, or in Glenrothes which is probably much more winnable, especially after all the work done in that bye-election? I reckon that it would be better to go to Glenrothes for the GE as there will be a bye-election in K+C after Labour gets trashed in the UK. What do you advise?"
An intelligent and ADULT view is to realize that NO PARTY will win in all areas and all contests. So you put your best effort into the ones you can even possibly win.
Obviously, you knew the answer to this but it is a good point and one worth making a number of times. It's disappointing that the SNP argument didn't get through to more people in Glasgow NE. I would have liked to see the SNP go up more than 1% in the polling, but intelligently they concentrated more on NOT making any mistakes that might cost them in later elections than in trying to turn this one around.
Smart politics.
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Speaking of missing it--This story is so skewed it is a bit sick.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8359336.stm
There were 1500 marchers for Scotland United. How many marchers from the "Scottish Defense League"? Can you tell from this article? It's hidden deep inside.
Strathclyde Police estimated about 80 people took part in the SDL protest and said some 1,500 attended the Scotland United rally at George Square.
And yet some 90% of the article is about the SDL as though they had large numbers of people. The Scottish United rally is completely ignored with 1500 people attending.
I don't understand why. Pure sensationalism? Anti-Scottish bias? Anti-SNP since Nicola Sturgeon was part of the demonstration? Or just plain poor reporting?
I honestly don't know--but a very bad job done, BBC Scotland.
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And just a LITTLE reminder of what BBC, The Sun, The Scotsman, The Herald, et al do NOT what you to know:
Scotland is still oil and gas rich
Let Westminster will try to tell you that Scotland has been in a budget deficit since 1988.
If you believe that, I have a nice bridge in Manhattan to sell you.
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I would hope not to see constituencies being punished for their vote, no matter my many disappointments over the campaign, coverage and result.
I don't think it's unreasonable to spend a bit more in the places that need it, obviously if it is a permanent feature then it may be a different matter.
Which brings me to the reason I wanted to post - is it possible that Glasgow, at the scale it is now, is not actually viable as a self-sustaining conurbation?
I've already expressed that I think the population of Scotland needs redistribution. I believe that the clustering of the population at the central belt is an artifact of an anaemic vision of Scotland as as a whole nation, and is a going to be a long term problem if not dealt with. Obviously people can agree with me that Glasgow isn't currently self-sustaining but disagree with the rest of my opinion.
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Neil_Small147:
#155.
"One bye-election has highlighted the divisions that exist within Scotland. How on earth can we survive independently?"
This is one of the most ridiculous claims I have ever witnessed on these boards. It's NOT a matter of independence or the union. It is about the current system and methods which we deal with issues.
"Those in favour of the union must be loving it."
Why? Yes if I were in favour of the union, I guess I would also be loving the failures of the current system... yes, I must...
There are current issues within the union under devolution that I, and others it seems disagree with. I see no reason why it is a matter of independence or union but an important issue between West-East Scotland under the current settlement!
Your creating an issue where non-exists. Your ignoring an issue that does exist, however. There is a clear funding gap between Glasgow and Aberdeen, for example. So, should we not open a discussion on the money that Glasgow receives in order to better Glasgow so we save money in future?
I am fed up of posters claiming Scotland is subsidised, well let us discuss methods we can use to fix the problem! There is nothing wrong with having this discussion and I deteste your attempts to create it an independence issue. It is a matter of funding, thats all!
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Sorry! Meant to close my #162 by asking what others thought - am i just daft?
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The bigger lies were spun by Labour, I care not where Mr Kerr was born.
I care a whole lot more about the smear and spin of a discredited party who lied during this by election.
The anti Glaswegian drivel was allowed to go unchecked by the media.
If anyone was unfortunate enough to see the interview with a young women from Glasgow North East then you know precisely the battle ahead.
Spiteful politics really irks me, playing with the future of Scotland and those who live here should be treated with a little more honesty and integrity.
And so we read today that the Commonwealth Games( in Glasgow) will cost an awful lot more - I'm shocked!- and who is going to provide the funds?
Why the Glasgow hating Scottish Government thats who!
Brian , would you care to enquire of the Scottish Soundbite Secretary of State ,when next his company is forced upon you, whether he has seen the OECD report on th finances of the "Arc of Insolvency" and how impressed he is with the UKs position?Which is _ I'm shocked! - BEHIND both Ireland and Iceland.
Not to mention the rather glorious position occupied with oil fund loving Norway!
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#164 mrb
What other answer is there? 8-)
#162
The population of Scotland is such that it will be hard put to be self sustaining if it comes to be needed. The populations of towns are generally a result of communication possibilities. In the case of the residents of Glasgow NE, they have a much superior oportunity for communication than, say, the residents of Ullapool. Even if there was an attempt to level the playing field by giving Ullapool 10Mb upload speeds there is still the geographic and population density problem of meeting your contacts for a chat over coffee or another bevvy. This face to face contact still works, else how come you get Silicon Valley and Silicon Fen?
I think part of the problem in the large towns and cities is that the education is still geared to turning out the workers that were needed in multi-thousand enterprises like the Springburn works and not the self-starting doers that the modern economy needs when all the multi-thousand type enterprises have moved to where the multi-thousands are happy with the figurative bowl of rice a day.
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Diabloandco:
#165
The anti Glasgow line will come back to haunt Labour. They've played themselves as the defenders of Glasgow, so I suspect it has put off voters elsewhere who already believe that parties focus too much on Glasgow and the rest of the central belt.
I doubt the SNP will pick a-side but they could still benefit as playing the pro-Scotland, "We'll protect you against Labour cuts." Labour, however has picked a side and will live with their choice.
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167. Thomas_Porter
"I doubt the SNP will pick a-side but they could still benefit as playing the pro-Scotland, "We'll protect you against Labour cuts." Labour, however has picked a side and will live with their choice."
I agree that the SNP will not pick a side and they are perfectly positioned to say (with perfect truth) that they are the only party that is pro-Scotland. Hopefully, pro- ALL of Scotland and not just one region.
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Two UK polls out, ‘YouGov’ is available at the following link but have yet to publish the data on their site.
Conservatives remain 14% ahead
The figures for YouGov poll are:
CON - 41% (nc)
LAB - 27% (nc)
LDEM - 18% (+1).
The other ‘ComRes’ is available from their web site:
ComRes Poll.
ComRes Poll results
Con - 39% (-1)
Lab - 25% (-2)
LD - 17% (-1)
Others - 19% (+4)
Note: These polls are UK wide ones, but maybe oldnat or Brownedov can extract some Scottish info from them?
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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164. mrbfaethedee
"Sorry! Meant to close my #162 by asking what others thought - am i just daft?"
Nope not at all when a community has to be "subsidised" to such a degree then one has to question its long term viablity which unionist will never do as it suits their political ends. Dispersing parts of that community to other areas on its own will not solve the problem without a complete restructuring of the whole capitalist system.
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163. At 8:33pm on 14 Nov 2009, Thomas_Porter:
Good lord. Read the posts by fortean and rev and tell me there are no divisions.
What I meant with the independent statement was we need to work together - not punish/slag off those people who either didn't vote SNP or who are stuck in a benefit cycle, in many cases when they cannot find a way out.
My argument has nothing to do with the media, independence or votes for whatever party people choose. You have people on this blog being quite specific about hammering one part of the country simply because the SNP did not win. Neither is it an argument about Scotland being subsidised - it was an example of how people are using the same arguments they reject when it is about Scotland. But when it is about Glasgow then that's alright.
Next time read posts and stop jumping to conclusions that are totally and utterly wrong.
You are 17 I believe. I was stuck on benefits for 18 months following illness, and it took me 3 years to get out of temporary contracts and back into full time employment. I know all about the difficulties, and saw how tempting it is to remain on benefits. Labour created the welfare state, but have allowed it to become a way of life for many. This country has social problems that won't disappear overnight. Ignoring them to concentrate on the core votes won't make them disappear either. They will have to be dealt with.
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162. At 8:21pm on 14 Nov 2009, mrbfaethedee
Good idea, but the problem is, how do you persuade people and more importantly employers to move? Depending on the industry, it is possible to move outwith the central belt, as we have seen with call centres. But the technology isn't always suitable.
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165. At 8:42pm on 14 Nov 2009, Diabloandco:
Can I just point out it is Glasgow City Council (Labour) that hates the Scottish Government, not the people of Glasgow (well not all of them).
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160. At 7:39pm on 14 Nov 2009, JRMacClure wrote:
I thought the story was ok. It certainly isn't critical of the Scottish United rally, and it focuses on the SDL because of recent demos by the EDL, who did indicate previously they would be coming to Glasgow. I don't think the SDL are going to worry too many people.
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158. At 6:50pm on 14 Nov 2009, handclapping wrote:
Why not work at it in your own area. Prime Ministers are not immune to losing their seats. John Howard did in Australia in 2007.
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Brian
I just can't help think that Glasgow East and North East are not that dissimilar and that the bye-elections were contested by parties who have not moved that much in the polls to produce such radically different results.
As Scottish football has been part of the national identity for years - was there any thoughts in Glasgow NE that the decline of the Scotland National Football Team and the dreadful performances of our clubs in Europe hit the underlying self confidence of folk in Scotland and hence the SNP vote?
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166. handclapping
"What other answer is there? 8-)"
Thanks for that, handclapping ;)
Communication opportunity is clearly important, but there are other factors too, not least of which is how much real employment an area can offer in relation to its population. And what about (and this applies all over) not having jobs very close to where people live.
I'm not specifically advocating any 'action' beyond the possibility that if subsidised but to no effect, perhaps removing excess subsidy would stop the whole area existing as a false economy, and people would likely move over time. Indeed, money saved could be invested in other areas where communities can grow to help startups etc there, perhaps even relocation incentives (that's about as 'extreme' as i'd take it).
My view is that communities are organic things and if starved or overfed will not prosper. So if a bit of extra spending hasn't worked over a longish period of time, perhaps it isn't the right thing to do, and we ought to allow resources to be freed up for other things, and allow communities with their attendant businesses and industries to develop naturally.
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169. Roll_On_2010
Not only was the Scottish sample laughably small, the question posed was one that caused an inbuilt bias in Scotland. Really not worth looking at.
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171. Neil_Small147
"But when it is about Glasgow then that's alright.
"
I don't think anyone is saying that.
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160. JRMacClure
I agree that this article is poor coverage, first of all the city council did not allow the SDL to march, they were entitled to a static protest only and weren't able to manage that for long before Scotland United turned up and they were moved on compared to the 4 and a half hours that the Scotland United were going through town.
I don't understand why there is an estimate when they were bussed out of the city surely the police would know how many people they needed to put on a bus when they arranged it.
I don't think that it is necessarily anti-SNP coverage as Nicola Sturgeon was there along with Labour, Lib Dem and Tory representatives and Tommy Sheridan. Although the organiser Osama Saeed is standing as the SNP candidate for Glasgow Central at the GE.
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171. Neil_Small147
"Ignoring them to concentrate on the core votes won't make them disappear either. They will have to be dealt with."
The core vote in an election has to get attention.
That doesn't mean you don't try to formulate a policy to improve people's lot however they voted.
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171. Neil_Small147
"Read the posts by fortean and rev and tell me there are no divisions.
"
There are ALWAYS divisions in any nation. That doesn't make Scotland somehow worse than anyone else. Look at England, the US, France, Spain, German...
They ALL have divisions and competition for valuable resources.
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#169 Roll_on_2010
I've had a look at the ComRes figures. The Scottish sample is only 60 so not a good prognosticator for anything much. One continuing theme that is repeated in this as in other polls is that the SNP are picking up support from people who voted Lab or LibDem in 2005 and are loosing some support in the Westminster race to Tory and Labour. The SNP need to come back and get across that the only way to protect Scotland is to vote for them or some such. They must not let themselves be squeezed by the Westminster duopoly.
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172. Neil_Small147
"I thought the story was ok. It certainly isn't critical of the Scottish United rally"
As a writer, I don't agree. WHAT information about the Scottish United rally did it give except for the number? It was in effect ignored.
I thought it was a very poorly written article and I'm afraid you won't change my mind on that. :-)
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172. Neil_Small147
"Why not work at it in your own area. "
So he's not supposed to concentrate on an area where his efforts will MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
Why? You realize what that does. People stay home instead. Is that what you want?
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170. cynicalHighlander
"Nope not at all when a community has to be "subsidised" to such a degree then one has to question its long term viablity which unionist will never do as it suits their political ends. Dispersing parts of that community to other areas on its own will not solve the problem without a complete restructuring of the whole capitalist system."
Yes, that's another part of the problem - the sheer weight of political/cultural clout the area can accrete to itself, which in turn helps continue gather more resource, more clout, more resource, and so on...
Perhaps restructuring our current capitalist system can be done best in its own terms, by at least being honest and letting things succeed or fail on their merits. If we can support that sort of process with level playing fields, minimal politicisation of resource/industrial issues, and free and open information, then perhaps we can foster an natural evolution in the way money, power and people interact in Scotland.
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Just noticed this article in the Indy regarding Pre-Election debates by party leaders:
TV bosses act over election debates deadlock.
Some hurdles still remain before the current negotiations succeed. The Scottish National Party may take legal action if Alex Salmond, its First Minister in the Scottish Government, is not allowed to take part in any debate screened north of the border. The party insists that it does not want to go to court and would prefer to reach agreement with the broadcasters.
This information has been kept quite by the MSM and has low priority in the Indy, the article is two days old and had to be dug out as other occurrences have almost buried it.
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183. mrbfaethedee
"
Perhaps restructuring our current capitalist system can be done best in its own terms, by at least being honest and letting things succeed or fail on their merits."
Including the "Banks"
"If we can support that sort of process with level playing fields, minimal politicisation of resource/industrial issues, and free and open information, then perhaps we can foster an natural evolution in the way money, power and people interact in Scotland."
One has to change peoples mindsets that money isn't the 'B' all to having a successful and enjoyable life and that is a long road.
For example. We are subsidised for the first 16/18 years of life, then work for 49/47 years and are then further subsidised for 20+ years on a pension unviable in any society unless subsidised by another society (foreign countries).
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172. Neil_Small147
"Good idea, but the problem is, how do you persuade people and more importantly employers to move? Depending on the industry, it is possible to move outwith the central belt, as we have seen with call centres. But the technology isn't always suitable."
Fair enough, I'm thinking over time though - not suddenly. Levelling the playing field might be a start. And that's a bare minimum, if it was deemed to be generally beneficial some careful temporary incentivisation could be considered.
Technological infrastucture should be turned from a problem to an opportunity - we make it work for us, not the other way around. Our future prosperity wil come about through our aspiring to things for our country and then doing what it takes to acheive it, i don't wish to settle for what we have simply because it's the way it is and difficult to change.
I certainly agree with you though that it would require a lot of careful thought, and would perhaps depend on our ability to come up with more industries offering employment.
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177. FatherMacKenzie
"I don't think that it is necessarily anti-SNP coverage as Nicola Sturgeon was there along with Labour, Lib Dem and Tory representatives and Tommy Sheridan. Although the organiser Osama Saeed is standing as the SNP candidate for Glasgow Central at the GE.
"
I agree that it wasn't necessarily anti-SNP, but it was a very poorly done article. I listed a whole range of possibilities.
My real thought is that there was no way to give it a pro-Labour spin, especially since Osama Saeed was the organizaer (which they failed to mention at all) so they concentrated on scare-mongering.
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#184 Roll_on_2010
You don't suspect that the SNP is going to be Global's Get out of Jail Free card, do you?
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185. cynicalHighlander
"Including the "Banks""
Couldn't agree more!
"One has to change peoples mindsets that money isn't the 'B' all to having a successful and enjoyable life and that is a long road."
Agreed. I believe when we were hunter-gatherers we spent much less time on average working to sustain ourselves. Agricultural revolution and the static societies that sprang up then made us an offer to good to refuse in terms of security in life, at the cost of more work. I think that our technologies (soft and hard) should be getting utilised to give us the best of both worlds - giving us better lives with less work required just to keep your head above water.
I grudge the drudge, and the time it takes from me and my family and friends.
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182. At 10:52pm on 14 Nov 2009, JRMacClure wrote:
172. Neil_Small147
"Why not work at it in your own area. "
So he's not supposed to concentrate on an area where his efforts will MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
Why? You realize what that does. People stay home instead. Is that what you want?
No, I mean he goes out and knocks on doors etc in his own area. I used the example of John Howard to show that even Prime Ministers can be kicked out of their seat. Ok, it's an Australian thing since he is the second Aussie PM to lose his seat. And if I'm right was a Canadian party leader also the victim of the voters?
I accept that it would be difficult to remove Gordon from his constituency seat, as he may well be an excellent constituency MP. That is another factor that makes removing a party from a seat difficult.
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186. At 11:38pm on 14 Nov 2009, mrbfaethedee:
The call centre industry is one of Scotland's strengths. I've been involved in it and technology allows a call centre to be situated anywhere, as one or two people have discovered. It is an industry where people from a wide variety of previous employment can find work. It's not all reading from scripts, many roles involve a bit of thinking outside the box. Colleges now run basic computing courses for people who have had no experience. Westminster Council have a call centre in Dingwall of all places. And if you can disperse the industry you can give the incentive for people to move.
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A very worrying story in the Sunday Post. The Labour government in Westminster once again discriminating against the Scottish Government.
This newspaper seems to get good scoops for its readers. Can't see anything of this story in any other paper.
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#171: Neil_Small147
'You have people on this blog being quite specific about hammering one part of the country simply because the SNP did not win.'
That's not the way I read it.
The good Rev and Jo are making the point that Glasgow is overly-subsidised and possibly parity with cities such as Dundee and Aberdeen would concentrate the minds of Purcell, his mob and their supporters.
Two stories in today's news highlight this:
1. Glasgow Council- the council who refuses to discuss organised crime - are trawling for volunteers for redundancy and the financial package they're offering is quite astonishing.
2. The Scottish Government - sorry, that should be the anti-Glasgow Scottish Government - are gifting the city £80million to help with Glasgow's Games.
It's said people get the politicians they deserve, but even the weegies don't deserve the crap in the City Chambers.
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190. Neil_Small147
"No, I mean he goes out and knocks on doors etc in his own area. "
You didn't answer my question. WHY do you want to limit him to campaigning in "his own area"? And why isn't ALL of Scotland "his area"?
Faced with a constituency which is a safe seat and which people KNOW they can't effect, you are saying they should either throw their efforts away or just not bother because they can't campaign somewhere else.
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191. hamish42
Could you link to the story?
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191. hamish42
Found it. As usual, Labour attacking the Scottish government and then pretending to be hard-done-by.
Labour Vetoes Scottish HQ
Business as usual for Labour.
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190. Neil_Small147
"The call centre industry is one of Scotland's strengths."
If i've given the impression that I was disparaging of the call centre industry, apologies - let me be clear, i think call centres are valuable and relevant to a 21st century economy, and a good source of employment well suited to our population. I agree also with what you say about the wide range of work that the actual operators (people) can be engaged in.
It is an example of what I was talking about - how technological challenges are themselves opportunities. Without appropriate network infrastructure the call centres couldn't operate - those areas which invest (or have investment on their behalf) in the appropriate infrastructure, while other areas don't, get the opportunity to operate call centres. More than that, they should then be looking to extend their use of said infrastucture into other sectors and services, creating them if necessary.
It wasn't long ago that call centres as we know them now didn't exist - gaps and problems we see in our technology and infrastructure, are frequently opportunities begging. Our current sluggishness on tech & infrastructure around our embryonic sustainable/renewable industry is a worrying case in point.
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Sunday Post Story
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197. Roll_On_2010
I love the Westminster reaction that the Scottish government should have kept quiet. Not a bit of shame over their behavior, just that they didn't want people to kow.
How dare the Scottish government let people know what had happened. They were supposed to cover it up! The SNP doesn't play the game right.
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161. JRMacClure
"And just a LITTLE reminder of what BBC, The Sun, The Scotsman, The Herald, et al do NOT what you to know:
Scotland is still oil and gas rich"
100% Agree with you. There are new wells coming online all the time. I work in drilling and I frequently work in the Scottish sector. even with the global downturn we are still extremely busy.
I probably wouldn't mind so much if the UK government had been sensible and invested some of the money into an oil fund instead of p*****g up the wall like its an infinite resource. As they are so fond of telling us it is going to run out eventually, and what will happen when it does, the UK will be in deeper **** than it already is. Scotland will then be be given independence whether she likes it or not.
So we have a choice we either take independence now and build up an oil fund, invest in renewables and become a world leader in the field as we have done in oil & gas, or we can wait until there is none left and we are given independence by a defunct UK that can no longer afford us.
I also think it we will be doing our English cousins a favour, because the longer we leave it, the more they will become dependent on Scottish oil subsides and the greater the fall will be. At least if we do it now, they will have more time to adjust to doing without. And when can be a better time to adjust to doing without than now. Because the UK has not and does not want to invest any of this money for the future we will probably see another recession when the oil does eventually run out.
Through investment of their oil wealth the Norwegians have built up their renewables such as Hydro power to such an extent that they don't need to use gas for heating, instead they sell it all to us. Just watch BBC coast Series 4 Norway Lillesand to Svalbard.
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Peter hain vetoed this?
Was'nt he in trouble for misuse of funds - ours?
Did'nt he use inappropriate funds to stand in the roll of Deputy Leader ?
That peter Hain?
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I think the idea that this is a good result for the SNP is stretching things a bit, but the real worry I have is that Labour will get the idea that negative campaigning works for them as a strategy to win elections. In my opinion their negative campaigning helped them to lose the last holyrood election, and does nothing for politics in general. It may have worked for them in this by election, but it will not work at the forthcoming UK and Scottish elections. People want to hear something positive to vote for, and it has been a long time since they got that from Labour.
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I have finally managed to solve the bug that has stopped me from posting. I had to restore my computer back 2 months to get back here.
I agree with oldnat that, even though it may be pleasurably to do so, insulting the good people of Glasgow NE is not going to endear them to the policies of the SNP. The fact is that Labour won the election and the SNP didn't (I accept the points made about the media bias but that is for us to find a way to get over that), even if you disgarded the postal votes; Labour still won and by a handsome amount. Their campaign was better than ours and that is all there is too it.
By the way, I agree with Brian's statement about Dundee United and Dundee, but that's because I'm an Arab too.
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Neil_Small147:
#171.
"What I meant with the independent statement was we need to work together - not punish/slag off those people who either didn't vote SNP or who are stuck in a benefit cycle, in many cases when they cannot find a way out."
It's not about politics! It has nothing to do with voting SNP, or anything.
"My argument has nothing to do with the media, independence or votes for whatever party people choose. You have people on this blog being quite specific about hammering one part of the country simply because the SNP did not win."
If it was nothing about independence, why the ridiculous claims that the unionists must be loving the tit-for-tat? Like I said above, it has nothing to do with the SNP loosing, since of course the SNP are pro-Scotland and not simply a region.
"Neither is it an argument about Scotland being subsidised - it was an example of how people are using the same arguments they reject when it is about Scotland. But when it is about Glasgow then that's alright."
First of all Glasgow is not as successful as the City of Aberdeen. There are vast differences as to why one does better, but the main issue is the methods we use to help Glasgow, I feel are wrong and pointless and we still see issues in Glasgow despite years of investment.
Would you rather we continue using failed methods to help Glasgow?
I will also point out I have never claimed Scotland would be financially better as an independent country, so I would watch out incase you attempt to criticise my points against Glasgow.
"Next time read posts and stop jumping to conclusions that are totally and utterly wrong."
I suggest you stop pretending that you never made clear points that unionists must be loving the tit-for-tat between individuals on these boards. That's a clear remark suggesting that this issue is an independence one, but I see it as reasonable considering we need all of Scotland to be at there best in order to survive better as an independent nation.
It may be more sensible to retract your remarks and that will stop certain individuals like myself getting the wrong end of the stick.
"You are 17 I believe. I was stuck on benefits for 18 months following illness, and it took me 3 years to get out of temporary contracts and back into full time employment. I know all about the difficulties, and saw how tempting it is to remain on benefits. Labour created the welfare state, but have allowed it to become a way of life for many. This country has social problems that won't disappear overnight. Ignoring them to concentrate on the core votes won't make them disappear either. They will have to be dealt with."
I am not suggesting we leave ill individuals to fend for themselves. I am suggesting we actually invest into opportunities that can create work for the people instead, why should Glasgow spend more on health and education? It does very little for them.
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203. At 11:12am on 15 Nov 2009, Thomas_Porter wrote:
I am suggesting we actually invest into opportunities that can create work for the people instead, why should Glasgow spend more on health and education? It does very little for them."
Thomas, you need to spend money on education in order to create employment opportunities. Employers prefer employees who have a good basic education. Trying to deal with the hard core issues I agree is not very productive, but you create change through education from an early age. The same goes for health. Spending money on preventative measures reduces costs at a later stage, for example with drugs, alcohol and tobacco. You won't change many people who are "established" in their way of life, but you can prevent children growing up into such lifestyles.
196. At 01:13am on 15 Nov 2009, mrbfaethedee:
Its ok, I didnt read your post as disparaging! The call centre industry backs up your argument for dispersing the population to an extent. Scotland in particular has a strong call centre industry, with several multi-nationals locating their centres here. As well as a fairly well-educated workforce, the transport infrastructure in central Scotland at least is very good. Also the Scottish accent is more appealing. Also, Scottish companies and individuals have won UK national awards in customer service and training. It is a big industry that can be developed further.
On the 80 million for the Commonwealth Games, apparently a large chunk of this is to provide HD coverage and highlights for other countries. Who were the idiots involved in planning this? And is certainly is not one individual group.
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Online Ed Here
Newsnet Scotland edition 5 has just been published.
381 people will have received their copy moments ago.
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Neil_Small147:
#204
The point was, why should Glasgow spend more on education and health? I am not suggesting cuts in this area but I must ask why an area such as Glasgow should have the luxury of spending more on education and health compared with other areas in Scotland.
How can we prolong life of others when we know full well that they will simply be scraping by? Yes, there are difficult questions and I believe it would show a mature country ready for independence if we can handle this level of discussion.
If Glasgow received the same amount of funding as other cities, would she survive? If not, why not? What does Glasgow need? How much will that cost and how long before we see the benefits?
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198 JRMacClure
This was actually reported on Friday afternoon on the Radio Scotland Newsdrive programme. It was disclosed during an interview with one of the Irish delegates.
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205. U14094468
"Newsnet Scotland edition 5 has just been published."
Good collection of articles!
If anyone on these forums I can only recommend it - if you're a separatist sympathiser you'll enjoy the lack of unionist bias, and if you're a unionista you might like to see the the presntation of material from the other perspective. It gets better each issue!
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The Liberal Democrats 2.3% of the vote at Glasgow NE matches the 2.6% they managed at Glenrothes.Add to this their poor showing of only 11.5% in the Scottish Euro vote and it's a dismal electoral record under Tavish Scott's leadership.
With UK supremo Clegg showing no interest in Scotland's National Question it's not surprising that the Scottish Lib Dem website doesn't reveal much interest in it either.A website which appears to indicate that the name of the party is Tavish Scott And The Scottish Liberal Democrats.(To paraphrase Churchill,Tavish is an immodest man with much to be modest about).
It all adds up to a prospect of the party dropping out of the 4 main party system in Scotland if things get any worse for them.For one of the main UK parties to atrophy in Scotland could mean Labour playing off the back foot even more.Are the Liberal Democrats a liability in the Unionist front?
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#169 Roll_On_2010
"ComRes Poll results ... maybe oldnat or Brownedov can extract some Scottish info from them?"
With a Scottish sample of 88 weighted to meet UK political identification, there's no useful data beyond a probability that NuLab and the SNP are the two most popular parties and that the Tories and L-Ds are unlikely to be completely wiped out at the general election.
Their questions on Brown and Cameron also suggest that Brown is no more pitied over his letter gaffe in Scotland than the rest of the UK and that Cameron is less trusted in Scotland.
#184 Roll_On_2010
"TV bosses act over election debates deadlock"
Thanks for that. I was beginning to wonder where the story had got to.
#188 handclapping
Re "Global's Get out of Jail Free card", I'd say that was the very reason why the story has been buried for now.
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#205 U14094468/Online Ed
Re "Newsnet Scotland edition 5", many thanks - a very good read.
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#209 mistydougie
What happens to the Scottish LibDems is one of the big questions for the Westminster GE next year. All the polls are having difficulty in picking up the 23% that voted LibDem in 2005. This is generally a sign of an impending collapse when people no longer are willing to associate themselves with their past behaviour. It looks as if the renegades have been associating themselves 20% Tory, Labour, Don't know/Won't vote and 40% SNP but who knows how many more are to come and how they will split. It is quite conceivable that the LibDems will end up with just 3 Scottish seats come June. IMO that would put a lot of pressure on the LibDem contingent at Holyrood, maybe Wee Eck will get his referendum in 2010.
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Re the Sunday Post's Fury as Scottish HQ bid vetoed, thanks to too many to mention above.
This will, of course, surprise nobody who has watched ex-Liberal apostate Hain's remarkable political journey from the lefty Liberal who headed the What's Left? campaign in the days of Butskellism to the right wing authoritarian figure wanting to deny those BNP lefties freedom of speech.
Nor should we forget that in his viceregal role as Skeletor's equivalent for Wales he has threatened to veto the Lab/PC Welsh coalition government's plans for more powers for the Welsh Assembly.
What a noble little bastion of democracy, as Tom Lehrer would have put it. Let's hope he keeps up the good work until the general election, whilst rooting for Plaid to get the 17.75% swing they need to unseat him in Neath.
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#212 handclapping
If there was a near wipeout of the Scottish Lib Dems next June who do you reckon the survivors would be?
My guess would be Ming,wee Charlie and blokie from the Northern Isles who was on the telly the ither night.
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#194
Sorry I had to depart from the scene and I couldn't give you the link but it was pretty obvious what the story was.
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Despite the curious quote - "Running the country has been to the detriment of the SNP" - the Sunday Thunderer use to link to the article from their main Scotland News page, Joan McAlpine's SNP must learn how to fight dirty is actually a pretty good read and much less unbalanced than the usual fare provided.
A slight understatement, though, with her "Bain came under less media scrutiny, despite working in London during the week and claiming to live in the constituency with his parents at the weekend". Too right he did, to the point that if a BBC report has actually mentioned it, I must have missed it.
OTOH, in SNP need to find its rhythm to win seats, Prof. Curtice's claim that "Thursday’s by-election result ... was little short of a disaster for Alex Salmond’s party" is as odd as his claim that "Labour’s support increased by six points".
That leads him first to predict the SNP losing two seats at the general election although he later less unreasonably extrapolates from recent polls suggesting "SNP is trailing Labour by about five points" to "SNP struggling to win 10 seats, let alone 20".
It's perhaps more interesting that this known supporter of the unLib unDems mentions neither their Glasgow NE performance nor their recent decline in the polls. Not wanting the veil lifted on private grief, I suppose.
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#209 mistydougie
"it's a dismal electoral record under Tavish Scott's leadership"
Quite so and how richly deserved.
#212 handclapping
"It is quite conceivable that the LibDems will end up with just 3 Scottish seats come June. IMO that would put a lot of pressure on the LibDem contingent at Holyrood, maybe Wee Eck will get his referendum in 2010."
Unless the L-Ds get rid of the estimable Mr Scott PDQ and, of course, if they do, they're more likely to get it anyway from whoever replaces him.
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I think the Lib Dems will be lucky to keep 3 seats. I'm going for a grand total of 1.
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205. U14094468
"381 people will have received their copy moments ago."
BBC FORCED TO APOLOGISE TO SNP MINISTER, BUT DOES IT IN A WHISPER
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207. Edzell_Blue
"This was actually reported on Friday afternoon on the Radio Scotland Newsdrive programme. It was disclosed during an interview with one of the Irish delegates.
"
Thanks. Labour was quoted as stating, in the article I read, that the SNP had disclosed it and criticising them for going public.
Thanks for bringing that point forward. Mind you, if the SNP had, I would see nothing wrong with it. The Westminster government should be willing to stand by its position and not try to keep it secret. They just acted AGAINST the Scottish government, apparently out of spite.
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216. Brownedov
"Joan McAlpine's SNP must learn how to fight dirty is actually a pretty good read and much less unbalanced than the usual fare provided."Was I delirious whan I read Ms. McAlpine's article? Did she actually say:
A fighting SNP might respond to such figures with a slogan such as: “Can Scotland afford to stay in the Union?”
I think that is EXACTLY the question Scots had better ask themselves. Do they really want to go down with a sinking ship after the captain of said ship ****s away the rest of the oil and gas funds?
Unionists had better give THAT some long, hard thought. And the SNP has the responsibility to ask the question--and pose answers.
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215. hamish42
Yes, I found it as did others. Thanks for pointing us in that direction.
It is an important story, I believe.
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201. Steve
"I think the idea that this is a good result for the SNP is stretching things a bit, but the real worry I have is that Labour will get the idea that negative campaigning works for them as a strategy to win elections. In my opinion their negative campaigning helped them to lose the last holyrood election, and does nothing for politics in general. "
I think that Labour may take home several erroneous conclusions from this election, such as that they don't have to worry about their Scottish seats and can concentrate elsewhere, which could in the long-run be a good thing for the SNP. However, that doesn't mean these results in themselves were good for the SNP. On the contrary. While the results were not dire, they do show that the SNP needs to have a good sit-down and figure out strategy--but possibly that is already planned. You don't necessarily fight a bye the way you do a GE, after all.
But the SNP needs to come out on the next TWO elections fighting; they need to choose to spend their money wisely on fights they have a chance to win (and I suspect THAT choice may have something to do with this one); AND they need to run aggressive campaigns that IMMEDIATELY address smears and lies and manage to get past a media that won't address those. In fact, the media helps spread them, but that is something the SNP must deal with.
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#221 JRMacClure
"Was I delirious whan I read Ms. McAlpine's article?"
I think not, although it's very out of character both for Ms McAlpine in particular and the Thunderer in general, so you can be excused for having such feelings.
I agree entirely with your post that such issues should make very fertile campaigning gound, especially if the TV debates take place, where the very least they could do would be to give Salmond a 20 minute solo slot straight after to refute the "big 3" and point out how irrelevant or harmful much of their verbiage is to Scotland.
On the same general theme is Rod Liddle's Labour’s heartland won’t be fooled on immigration again, also in the Thunderer. It suggests NuLab will get a general election kicking on that score alone, but is very much oriented towards "the white-flight satellite towns of Essex to the old mill towns of east Lancashire" but entirely ignores the fact that two of the three nations which make up the island of Great Britain are underpopulated.
With Cameron's Tories more or less obliged to their core vote on such matters, this should be a profitable arena for both the SNP and PC to bemoan the fact that immigration is controlled entirely by the UK government, to the detriment of both Scotland and Wales. Again: Can Scotland afford to stay in the Union?
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#214 mistydougie
Northern Isles, Edinburgh West and one of Ming or Charlie K.
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169. Roll_On_2010
"These polls are UK wide ones, but maybe oldnat or Brownedov can extract some Scottish info from them?"
It's much easier to derive the English picture from them. Handclapping/Brownedov might like to check my calculations
Excluding the Scottish figures from Table 6 of the Com res poll appears to show the following for England and Wales -
Con 41.1% : Lab 23.4% : LD 18.0% : Others 17.5%
For the lead of Con over Lab to be 3.3 times the size of Lab over LD lead seems rather dramatic.
Scotland has 2 major and 2 minor parties. England seems to have only 1 major party and 2 minor ones.
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#225
If the SNP asked their activists in NE Fife to help in either of Glenrothes or Dundee West, then Ming would go.
Curtice is wrong about the importance of the Labour lead over the SNP, it is the absolute level of Labour support that is critical, as Griffiths, Murphy and Darling amongst others, would be happy to tell him.
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#226 oldnat
Not so surprising; the New Labour "initiative" was to make Labour electable by appealing to Middle England while hanging on to their core socialist and working class vote. In view of NuLab's dismal failure to govern well, Middle England has reverted to conservatism, yes small c, and there has been drift in the old core vote.
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226. oldnat
"For the lead of Con over Lab to be 3.3 times the size of Lab over LD lead seems rather dramatic."
That is amazing. I thought that it said much more about the English standings was the case but not being a math anorak (like some) I didn't want to say so.
I felt that they got some unrepresentative Scottish numbers (not hard in such a tiny sample) which actually lessened the extremity of the Labour situation in England. It is always a mistake to say that a party will never recover. The same was said about the Democrats in the US some ten years ago and the Republicans after the Goldwater defeat. But IF Labour does, it will be a long and hard process.
Hmmmm. Ok, I don't care. But how long, one has to ask, will Labour in Scotland stick with them once they have the look of such total losers? And, on top of it, clearly anti-democratic.
The Labour party in Scotland, in spite of winning in Glasgow NE by a satisfying number, would do well to be giving the situation some hard thought and I have a feeling (just a feeling, mind you) that they're not. What WILL they do when not only they don't have the government but they have a severely reduced number? I think it will be a severe psychological blow to Labour in Scotland as well as across the UK.
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#225 handclapping
Of course,I forgot about Edinburgh West.It's the Lib Dems Glasgow NE.
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#226 oldnat
"Handclapping/Brownedov might like to check my calculations"
I certainly agree the whole percentages you quote. Based on the numbers rather than the percentages and assuming that the solitary Midlander voting SNP was hopeful rather than geographically challenged, I make the E&W figures:
Con 41.18%, Lab 23.17%, L-D 18.00%, Grn 6.06%, UKIP 5.88%, BNP 3.03%,
SNP 0.18%, PC 1.43%, Other 1.07%
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229. JRMacClure
"I think it will be a severe psychological blow to Labour in Scotland as well as across the UK."
In other words, I am going to be fascinated to see what happens at Holyrood.
I think it will have to do with more than just a reaction against the hated Tories. It will also have to do with whether to vote against Labour because they've let you down and you want to punish them, vote for Labour because they've had a kicking and you feel sorry for them (it does happen), or vote for the SNP because maybe they can actually do something for you and besides they're not Labour or Tories (and maybe they've done a decent if not perfect job of governing Scotland).
Interesting days ahead.
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Here's my totally unscientific prediction for the next general election:
Conservatives - 380
Labour - 200
Lib Dems - 30
SNP - 16
Plaid - 4
Sinn Fein - 5
UU - 1
Green - 1
BNP - 1
Respect - 1
Apologies if it is over the number of seats available. I've kept the NI seats the same as I know little about the politics over there with regards to Westminster.
I think the BNP will get a seat, most likely from London.
The biggest losers in my opinion (apart from Labour) will be the Lib Dems. They might even sink to about 20 seats.
The SNP's momentum should carry them forward to a working majority in the Holyrood elections. Much depends on Cameron.
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231. Brownedov
Thanks.
Putting those figures into Electoral Calculus, the Tories in the non-Scottish parts of the UK would have a majority of 203 over all other parties.
Even if every single Scottish constituency returned a non-Tory MP, then the Tory majority would only be reduced to 144.
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#231 Brownedov
the solitary Midlander voting SNP
The increase in postal voting had got to show up sometime and was always going to be most visible in the Parties who stand on a limited geography.
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235. handclapping
Good point.
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233. Neil_Small147
"The SNP's momentum should carry them forward to a working majority in the Holyrood elections."
It is almost impossible to underestimate how important a working SNP majority in Holyrood would be. And it does look very much within the realm of possibility.
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Article from the Herald, apology if it's already been posted:
Salmond set to rewrite independence referendum question.
Alex Salmond is holding high-level talks with civil servants about rewriting his plan for an independence referendum, it has emerged.
The following paragraph is a real gem… It should be framed and kept for posterity.
A LibDem spokesman said: “The SNP are clearly desperate. They’re running up the white flag of defeat. They just got thumped in a by-election they said they were going to win and are going nowhere.”
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#234 oldnat
"Even if every single Scottish constituency returned a non-Tory MP, then the Tory majority would only be reduced to 144."
Quite so, and with ComRes showing smaller gaps between Tory and NuLab than most, an overall Tory majority of 100+ looks increasingly likely unless NuLab can turn the situation around, something unimaginable with Duff Gordon at the helm. In those circumstances, the message that Scotland needs to protect itself from a fresh dose of Thatcherism would have to sell well. Who "wins" Scotland will presumably depend on who does the best selling job.
#235 handclapping
"The increase in postal voting had got to show up sometime and was always going to be most visible in the Parties who stand on a limited geography."
That's certainly something to watch for in internet pollsters like YouGov [where data may be out of date] or face-to-face interviews [where unwarranted assumptions may be made], but I'm more surprised to see it cropping up in a fixed-line telephone pollster like Comres, but although I suppose the randomisation procedure used would result in places like hotel rooms being polled occasionally, you'd have thought that the first question would always be something like: What is the postcode where you are registered to vote? and the answer to that question would be used to determine their regional splits.
That said, I fully accept that those with multiple residences have the option of being registered in more than one place, including postally.
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238. Roll_On_2010
And The Herald ignored this: A spokesman for Mr Russell said: “The question published in the white paper in 2007 remains our favoured option for the bill, which will be published early in 2010.
“However, we have regularly made it clear to the other parties that if they wish to amend the wording of the question, or indeed include their constitutional preference, they will be perfectly able to put forward such amendments when the bill comes forward.”
That looks like a flat denial of their headline--IN the article.
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#238 Roll_On_2010
"It should be framed and kept for posterity."
Quite so, and thanks for the link.
#240 JRMacClure
"That looks like a flat denial of their headline--IN the article."
Absolutely. Another certain nomination for misleading headline in the inaugural glencamblies.
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241. Brownedov
Ooooh! Glencampbelly awards! I like it. *makes a note for future reference--eyes gleaming*
Oldnat, do you have any comment on this? Or anyone else?
Trust Schools?
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#238 Roll_On_2010
The bit I like is the warning that Labour and the LibDems give us that we will still be in recession in Autumn 2010, when the referendum will take place.
And there's Global saying that we are coming out of recession last month and this month and next month. On the basis that whatever he says is the kiss of death to any team, person, event that receives his "blessing", I wish he would shut up about the recession and let his Chancellor deal with the matters in the Chancellor's remit, while Global does something like "improve" the House of Lords.
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#243
And to nick Online Ed's mantle, who is going to be the first of the Scottish media to ask Labour or the LibDems whether they are predicting the length of the recession when they trot out that stupid sound bite next time the referendum is mentioned?
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#229 JRMacClure, your observation about Labour's long and hard recovery made me think of what my granddad said after "Sunny Jim" Callaghan decided to delay the turkey-roasting in 1978 by six months. He said "If Labour loses the election they will be out of power for fifty years."
I found that an incredible thought but he has yet to be proved wrong.
Anyway, the question in my mind is this - when Labour recovers what will they recover as?
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We'll bring a new model PFI, vows George Osborne
""The government's use of PFI has become totally discredited, so we need new ways to leverage private sector investment," Osborne says."
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245. Skip_NC
Always an interesting question. In the US, there are members of the Republican party asking a similar question after a pretty severe drubbing at the polls, which some of you might recall.
Will they emerge? And if they do, will it be as the same, a better or a worse party?
For that matter, a better question, will they have a place in the politics of an independent Scotland?
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2. At 8:55pm on 15 Nov 2009, JRMacClure:
I've never really rated Fiona Hyslop before, but she's got my attention here by basically ruling out trust schools, which is a damn good idea.
Education should be run solely by the state - not a committee of other groups. The problem is you can end up with a clique. I've seen similar happenings in other areas where the ruling group ends up destroying the organisation.
Personal ideas can come into things and the focus on education becomes secondary.
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#242 JRMacClure,
I'm not oldnat but I did experience the joys of education in East Lothian. If it isn't broken, don't fix it. I understand from relatives that schools across the county still provide, generally, the excellent education I enjoyed. If that is the case, any changes should be approached with great caution.
Having said that, the article you linked to suggests that Cllr Berry is actually looking to preserve the status quo by shielding the schools from the worst of the public spending cuts that are coming Scotland's way in the next several years. Education is essential to life as we know it. If the quality of education is threatened, anything that can be done to preserve it should be welcomed.
To avoid nightmares about my teachers visiting this blog and critiquing my writing I have purposely omitted the names of the schools I attended!
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#247 JRMacClure,
Personally, I'm keeping an eye on the Modern Whig Party. If they can get their act together (and get rid of the "Fair Tax" advocates) they could certainly win the votes of those who lean Republican and a goodly number of Blue Dog Democrats.
Labour will certainly have a role in an independent Scotland. However, if they do not give themselves a shake, they may find themselves filling the "protest vote" role that the SNP vacated some time ago. What a delicious thought!
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248. Neil_Small147
"Education should be run solely by the state"
I'm less dogmatic. I don't like private schools, but I wouldn't ban them. The East Lothian discussion starts from assumptions very different from NuLab's trust school model.
The concept of public school standards being set at national level, but implemented at a more local level than LAs is well worth examining.
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Test
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251. At 11:03pm on 15 Nov 2009, oldnat:
I'm not against private schools at all. But I do not like the Labour model of trust schools.
250. At 9:56pm on 15 Nov 2009, Skip_NC:
While it is tempting to have a protest vote party, it is not good for government to have a weak opposition. You need something in place to put a check on certain policies proposed by governments.
6. At 9:39pm on 15 Nov 2009, cynicalHighlander wrote:
We'll bring a new model PFI, vows George Osborne
""The government's use of PFI has become totally discredited, so we need new ways to leverage private sector investment," Osborne says."
They never learn. PFI costs more and my view is that is was created to remove responsibility from Government.
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253. Neil_Small147
"While it is tempting to have a protest vote party, it is not good for government to have a weak opposition. You need something in place to put a check on certain policies proposed by governments."
Not only that, parties, like people, are made stronger from having to work for their goals.
I laugh at people going on and on about the SNP "breaking manifesto promises" as though they are supposed to come automatically. By the time they get those promises through, the promises may well have been improved on and the party will have been strengthened by the struggle.
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252. oldnat
"Test
"
Did you pass? -)
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255. JRMacClure
No :-(
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107. JRMacClure
But that leaves a legitimate question. WHY does Glasgow get more per capita than other areas of Scotland and is it fair that they do?
I think higher spending per capita might have something to do with the fact that it is a metropolis.
Although Glasgow only has about 600,000 living in it, the number of people actually in Glasgow at any one time is usually significantly more, with people coming in to the city to work, shop, go to gigs, football matches etc.
There are also a lot of institutions headquartered in Glasgow,but serve the whole country, such as the RSNO.
Glasgow also has the HQs of a lot of Strathclyde-wide institutions and as such larger amounts of funding than the outlying areas. For example if I phone Campbeltown or Islay police station when there isn't an officer in the station, I'll be put through to Glasgow HQ. That means Glasgow is receiving funding for an extra employee who is dealing with other areas.
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257. FatherMacKenzie
All of that makes a lot of sense, although from the sound of it not everyone thinks it's fair. The discrepancy seems rather marked. This is no time to look into whether the proportion is actually what it should be--it would be too politically charged.
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Ok, I need an erudite person to tell me the French word for Scotsman, please. =)
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In modern spelling it is Ecossais - Scots; however in the 18th century it was spelled Ecossois - as the French Army's Regiment Royal Ecossois, which fought at Culloden
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259.
Je suis ecossais(e) with a / angle above the first e, means I am a Scotsman. An e at the end would denote a Scotswoman.
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Thanks, both of you. :-)
Very interesting. I am acquainted with Lord Drummond's Royal Écossois and should have realized the meaning but French (or my rather poor French) has always been one of my weaknesses.
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More Iain Macwhirter dross in the Herald.
Struggling Nationalists could be staring into electoral abyss.
The vast majority of Scottish MPs next May are always going to be Labour - but now they could be in the running for a Caledonian landslide: the Scottish Tories are going nowhere, the Liberal Democrats are becalmed and the SNP is going backwards on its showing in Glasgow North East. The SNP’s setback obscured the scale of the defeats suffered by Scotland’s other major parties.
It appears that Glasgow NE was Armageddon for the SNP.
What absolute tripe.
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Very interesting article in the Times about NuLabour cash-strapped policy at next GE:
Cash-strapped Labour ‘gives up’ on 60 vulnerable seats.
Labour’s cash-strapped party machine is quietly abandoning up to 60 vulnerable seats to divert resources to defend constituencies in its heartlands, according to MPs.
It is the first sign that some senior Labour figures accept that defeat is inevitable and are switching resources to defend seats with larger majorities to prevent a rout next year.
It appears that NuLabour will only be targeting seats with a majority above 3,000 and apparently abandoning the rest as far as resources are concerned. It may be useful to compile a list to see what seats in Scotland will be affected.
Does Macwhirter actually get paid for the junk he writes? (my last post @ #263)
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263. Roll_On_2010
Tripe is indeed the word for it.
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264.
There are 5 seats where they had a majority under 3000, from NE to SW with the majority and who came second they are:
Aberdeen South 1348 - LD
Ochil & S Perth 688 - SNP
Edinburgh North 2153 - LD
Edinburgh South 405 - LD
Dumfries & Galloway - 926 -Con
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#266 FatherMacKenzie.
Thanks. I was just going to check, not much comfort there then, but I think this goes a lot deeper than NuLabour are admitting. They have been told by their bank that they have no money to spend even on the GE, although I feel they will scrape some money together.
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# 259 JRMacClure
Personally, I always thought that the French and the English called us, 'Cannon fodder'.
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Their giving up on five Scottish seats can hardly be a bad thing. Never turn down seats that a party is willing to give up on.
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267.
You're welcome.
The money spent might not make that much of a difference in the end, the BNP were talking about how they only had something like £900 (including the £500 deposit) in Glasgow NE but still managed to scare the Tories.
I think a bigger factor in a GE is going to be how the LD vote holds up, and which side it falls on if it doesn't.
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268. gedguy2
"Personally, I always thought that the French and the English called us, 'Cannon fodder'."
Only in battle. ;-)
Otherwise, insults worked wonders (haven't changed much have they?) for the English and the French said you were great pals until it came to actually sending an army.
Hmmmm I need to look up a good preferably medieval French obscenity. I suppose having someone post it wouldn't work well. Too bad because I'm short on French references. Was never my specialty.
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# 263 Roll_On_2010
Considering that this must be the worst political mess that the Labour party has been in since 'Sunny' Jim Callaghan and we are in the deepest recession since the second world war, then the SNP should have done a lot better in Glasgow NE. I accept, and I suspect that most of us on here would agree with me, that we were never going to win this seat at the last by election. What is worrying for us is that we did not do better than what we did. I am sure that those thoughts are running around the table at the SNP's cabinet meetings and must surely be echoing around the SNP's membership. I don't think that Kerr did bad, I thought he was quite good and a potential man for the future, but we would have to be honest with ourselves and see that our campaign in the by election just did not motivate people to go out and vote for us.
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# 271 JRMacClure
I suppose it would have only been fair if I had added that this term, 'Cannon fodder', was used by those Scots lords as well. I hate being at the bottom of the pile. :-(
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# 270 FatherMacKenzie
I think a bigger factor in a GE is going to be how the LD vote holds up, and which side it falls on if it doesn't.
In Scotland I suspect that you are right. However, in the rest of the UK I suspect that the BNP but more so UKIP will split the Tory vote in a few constituencies but more likely will stop the Tory majority, in constituencies, being bigger than what it should be. This may frighten the Tory leadership and cause them to swing more to being anti-EU than what they would prefer to be. I expect a significant Tory rebellion, on Tory EU policies, after they have won the next GE.
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#264 Roll_On_2010
"It may be useful to compile a list to see what seats in Scotland will be affected."
Easy from the XL in which I maintain the Portillo List. NuLab's Bottom 10 majorities in Scotland are:
Majority, 2nd, Constituency, Member
405, LD Edinburgh S, Griffiths
688, SNP, Ochil & Perthshire S, Banks
1348, LD, Aberdeen S, Begg
2153, LD, Edinburgh N & Leith, Lazarowicz
2922, Con, Dumfries & Galloway, Brown
3338, LD, Glasgow N, McKechin
4767, Con, Stirling, McGuire
5379, SNP, Dundee W, McGovern
6202, LD, Edinburgh E, Strang
6657, Con, Renfrewshire E, Murphy
If your link is correct, the first 5 would be abandoned.
"Does Macwhirter actually get paid for the junk he writes?"
I imagine he must get a premium the more rabidly anti-nat he writes. When he writes for himself, he's much more measured. See his blogspot.
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if the libdems (amongst other unionist parties) are against a referendum on independence because they consider constitutional issues irrelevant next to the recession, why is Tavish Scott's boss calling for the UK govt to abandon it's imminent legislative program in order to 'clean up politics' instead?
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272. gedguy2
"but we would have to be honest with ourselves and see that our campaign in the by election just did not motivate people to go out and vote for us."
I only agree with you in part. What happened, looking at the numbers in comparison to the previous elections, is that BOTH parties held onto only their core voters. Obviously Labour has, and has always had, more core voters there.
Any who might have been won from Labour stayed home. Now why is a very important question so I'm not totally disagreeing, but neither party motivated anyone except the core in that constituency.
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# 277 JRMacClure
I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying but the fact is that if we could not have done better when our main opposition was at it's lowest, politically, then there was something wrong with our campaign. It's just a thought.
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# 277 JRMacClure
By the way, there is something 'quirky' that may interest you as it relates to your country and politics.
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#245 Skip_NC "when Labour recovers what will they recover as?"
Yes,it's something to think about.Blair attempted in the early New Labour years to appeal to everyone.Always a big mistake in politics.Tony's famous Big Tent is now starting to look quite empty and it's going to fall down on Gordon.
While middle England is reverting to it's natural choice of the Tory Party,Labour will have quite a battle preventing a lot of their right wing working class voters in England being grabbed by the BNP.
I don't think that after the bitter end of the New Labour project there will definitely be a spectacular and prolonged Labour civil war as in the early 80s.Since smaller parties are now doing quite well in English politics it will be tempting for the Labour Left to strike out on their own and try their luck.A lot of the Unions' money would no doubt follow them.
That could leave an ill-funded,ill-defined Labour doing nothing more than presenting itself as a managerial alternative to the Tories.
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On the LibDem vote, I just cannot see Charles Kennedy losing his seat. Willie Rennie - yes, Ming - probably not - but he deserves to - old self serving amateur that he is. Carmichael - no. Argyle n Bute - hope so.
The others - don't even know who they are so very possibly a few losses. How many is that - I guess they will keep 3 or 4 at least.
Still, even losing 3 or so would be very damaging to them.
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# 280 mistydougie
That could leave an ill-funded,ill-defined Labour doing nothing more than presenting itself as a managerial alternative to the Tories.
I thought they already were.
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278. gedguy2
"I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying but the fact is that if we could not have done better when our main opposition was at it's lowest, politically, then there was something wrong with our campaign. It's just a thought."
Look at the polls, Ged. The Scotland ones show a slight swing back to Labour, the SNP pretty much holding steady and LD bottoming out. That is exactly what happened in GNE.
I think what you are seeing is the way people in Scotland still think about Westminster and the SNP. It will not be easy to change people's minds but the ones who are open to it, by every indication, are the ones who were LD rather than Labour.
I don't think it shows much wrong with the campaign. (Notice I say "much". I do think there were weaknesses. Not a perfect candidate for the constituency and not reacting strongly enough to attacks. But I don't think these necessarily made a huge difference)
There will be constituencies where the SNP will do well, but they're going to have to fight the "SNP doesn't count in Westminster" perception all the way.
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Has anyone been watching the History of Scotland on the beeb? Scotland sold down the river by the Bankers and Union sympathisers - and they do say that History repeats itself!!
As for the next GE, have to disagree with 281 Govanite, Willie Rennie is a hard working politician who regularly communicates with his constituents through mailed newsletters, raising local issues and altogether doing a good job locally despite being in a party that seems to be self destructing, I think he will retain his seat on his personal perfomance rather than his parties.
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#282 gedguy2
True.That did occur to me as soon as I'd posted.That's what I get for not taking a proper breakfast.I suppose what I meant was that any last vestige of traditional Labour will disappear and the Establishment wish for a tame,right wing party will reach it's apogee.
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See Nick Griffin is going to contest Barking.
Mmmm I'm sure there's a joke to be had there.
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#284 skintybroko
Sure, understand. But that sort of approach didn't help Jim Sillars much in a traditional Labour area.
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#287 govanite - appreciate your comment but even though this is a traditional labour area I am sure Willie will hold on, he has got the locals involved in petitions etc and has a much higher standing in the community than any of his predecessors. Despite it being a GE, I still believe people will vote for the local man rather than aling party lines. Time will tell.
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@171 "not punish/slag off those people who either didn't vote SNP or who are stuck in a benefit cycle"
I neither slagged off anyone or called for punishment for anyone. I merely stated a simple statistical fact, and also pointed out an interview that had been done by the BBC with some Glasgow NE electors. Once again - it's not an insult to call a spade a spade.
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'SNP subsidising Glasgow' - The SNP was today accused of subsidising Glasgow when it was revealed that in addition to the £400 million allocated to the 2014 Commonwealth Games, Alex Samond's Government will cough up another £50 million for a city that doesn't even vote for them.
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289. Rev_S_Campbell
"Once again - it's not an insult to call a spade a spade."
Unless your are gardener at the White House!
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290. At 1:04pm on 16 Nov 2009, govanite wrote:
Aye, he's a clever loon.
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The dichotomy of a Westminster government and a Scottish one with different political colours is the "never ending story" and isn't sustainable it seems. At the moment its Labour and SNP. In the future it could be SNP and Tories or Labour and Tories. Typified at the moment by the dispute over financing the new bridge or where the British-Irish Council HQ will be located, with a new problem coming over the horizon regularly.
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