Lib Dem weekend
Liberal Democrat leaders have frequently found their own party thoroughly exasperating.
Their persistent demands for internal debate; their frequent obsession with the niceties of party rules; their occasional bouts of smugness; their inherent tendency to rebel.
Tavish Scott is, himself, not that far removed in age from the Pestilential Tendency among the youth wing of his party. However, he has always been fearsomely pragmatic.
Hence his evident irritation when some of his fellow members insisted on demanding support for a referendum on Scottish independence.
Why couldn't they just shut up? A period of silence on your part etc etc
As successive Lib and LibDem leaders have found, requests for silence fall on self-stopped ears. Demands for unity simply generate still more insurrection.
So Mr Scott gave in and held an internal party discussion on the referendum issue on Saturday, in private.
Two outcomes. One, support for his position that the LibDems should oppose current SNP plans for a plebiscite. Two, the beast that is internal dissent within the LibDems has probably been sated for a while.
I imagine that, right now, the more fervent Nationalists (and, yes, there are one or two who are welcome contributors to this site) will be deploying rather sharper terms than exasperating to describe the LibDems.
But, from the LibDems' own perspective, they believe they have rebalanced to lay stresss upon their own position: which is to urge further powers for the Scottish Parliament en route to a federal UK.
As I have frequently pointed out on this blog, opposing a referendum is, politically, a very uncomfortable place to be. Hence "bring it on" from Wendy Alexander. Hence the LibDems closed doors discussion in Dunfermline.
Alex Salmond will now proceed with plans to table his Bill for a referendum, disregarding Opposition demands to drop the idea.
For Mr Salmond, this is not like the Local Income Tax Bill which was shelved in the face of sustained opposition and a contrary Parliamentary vote on the issue.
Independence is the primary reason for his party to exist. He will table the Referendum Bill and invite support - or criticism.
Should it fail, as now seems certain, he will use the issue to condemn his rivals at the Holyrood elections in 2011. In practice, that has been his fall-back position all along. In truth, Plan B was never very remote at any point.
But what of the LibDems? Their position is much more nuanced than straightforward opposition to Mr Salmond's Bill.
Of that, they say it is at the wrong recessionary time - and with the wrong question (a mandate to negotiate rather than a blunt Yes or No to independence.)
At Dunfermline, we are told that the issue was canvassed, that there were voices raised for a referendum. But, when Ross Finnie summed up by saying that opposition to the Salmond plan appeared overwhelming in the hall, there was no dissent. That position carried the day by acclaim.
Does that mean there is universal agreement as to how to proceed? No. No more than there is within other parties on this or other issues.
Does that mean that the LibDems are "all over the place" on this topic, as some assert?
No. Things were heading that way. But the critics of the leadership position have got what they demanded. A party discussion, albeit one held behind closed doors.
They have got what liberals everywhere crave: an audience, a hearing, a debate.
I believe Tavish Scott's position has thereby been strengthened on this issue - although he might have gone further and held the debate openly. As, for example, the SNP did when they were confronting a comparable dispute over whether to back the devolution referendum.
But back to those nuances.
Nuance One: the LibDems, like the SNP, hope to hold the balance of power after the UK general election next year. In those circumstances, they would include enhanced powers for Holyrood in their negotiation shopping list.
Lord Wallace of Tankerness has been tasked with dealing with the UK civil service on behalf of the party at Westminster.
It is not thought likely that the former leader of the Scottish LibDems will forget the land of his birth in advising the civil service machine of LibDem prioritites.
Nuance Two: the review of strategy in this field by Ross Finnie continues. It was not devised purely for the Saturday event in Dunfermline. But, for now, it appears that the party will lay stress on its own priorities, both in the field of the constitution and other areas.
That will certainly be the case up to and through the UK general election.
Nuance Three: the LibDems are not saying never to a referendum on independence. However, they are not even saying "maybe" at the moment. Mr Scott believes that a period of simple clarity would be welcome. So, on the constitution, they will talk about their own option of enhanced powers, of federalism.
There will be a new statement from the Scotland Office with regard to implementing the Calman proposals. In practice, it is likely to consist of action which might follow subsequent to a general election.
Mr Scott will be hoping for greater leverage for his preferences from whatever Westminster arithmetic emerges.
Nuance Four: the Scottish LibDems will then develop a position for their 2011 Holyrood manifesto and beyond. That might, in the light of events, include the position of saying maybe to an independence referendum.
But not, post Dunfermline, now. For now, expect the LibDems to argue more vigorously still for their own preference.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~14~RS~)
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Good blog.
Disappointed that they haven't backed a referendum. They will have to justify that to the electorate. However they appear to be backing one in the next parliment, which I suspect will cause some confusion in their message (possibly deliberate to mitigate the previous point?).
Still I am hopeful that there will be a full debate soon, and as long as it rises above the recent name calling we had in FMQs then that should be interesting. I am yet to hear someone coherently argue for the retention of the union without scaremongering.
John
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It is not thought likely that the former leader of the Scottish LibDems will forget the land of his birth in advising the civil service machine of LibDem prioritites.
And you would assume that why? You seem to do a pretty darn good job of forgetting the land of your birth to serve London masters and GB has YET to remember it.
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Good summing up of the LibDem 'discussion'. However, I find it annoying that a party, based on the idea of democracy, which has for decades put forward the 'federalist' idea is stepping back from giving the people of Scotland a say in their future. What is there to be frightened of LibDems?
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Brian,
A good post, but you could have brought the current NuLab and Tory referendum positions into the picture as well.
At least for the next week, Cameron still wants a referendum on Lisbon, and last we heard from Duff Gordon he wants one on an AV electoral system that would put the UK into sharing the EU democratic wooden spoon with France instead of being unchallenged sole holders. I'm not sure which referendums Clegg is proposing apart from the one on Europe IN or OUT, but I'm sure he has plenty in the wings should he unexpectedly scoop the pool in the next Westmidden stakes.
How odd that it's entirely the right and proper time for Kingdom-wide referendums but somehow not quite the time to consider national home rule.
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Brian Taylor wrote "I imagine that, right now, the more fervent Nationalists (and, yes, there are one or two who are welcome contributors to this site)"
lol, consider yersels telt.
Yesterday I was saying that being called stupid by Iain Gray was a kind of badge of honour. I have to say that being a fervent nationalist who the British Broadcasting Company's top political man in Scotland considers unwelcome on his blog would have to be another.
In fact is it even possible to be a "fervent nationalist" and be welcome anywhere at the BBC? I doubt it.
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Brian
That's the kind of blog that got me reading here in the first place.
Useful insights. However, "For now, expect the LibDems to argue more vigorously still for their own preference." I haven't seen much sign of any vigorous argument for federalism to date.
I think they made a major mistake in joining with the ultra-Unionists on Calman. They have had a coherent constitutional stance for years (even though their dominant Soc-Dem wing have largely ignored it).
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J. Arthur has a perspective on LD "decision making"
http://macnumpty.blogspot.com/2009/11/sunday-whip.html
"I'm afraid I do not know whether the LibDem position on this vote was simply miscommunicated or whether a free vote was allowed, but the sight of the Finance Spokesman facing away from the Leader (and the majority of the Group) on an economic issue doesn't bode well. Similarly, the majority of Group members voting for an amendment that would render their own amendment incompetent is - well, it's a rather unorthodox tactic, let's just put it like that."
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5. GrassyKnollington
"the more fervent Nationalists (and, yes, there are one or two who are welcome contributors to this site)" "
Depends how you read this. I had taken BT to mean "one or two" as ironic, but that we were all welcome.
However, if your interpretation is correct, then I took the "one" to be me, and wondered who the possible other was! :-)
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Online Ed Here
BBC ..... Blatantly Biased Corporation?
Click Here
Also:
Saw Tavish Scott on Politics Scotland where I believe he basically confirmed that a truce has been called with his 'referendum rebels' by conceding a referendum in the next parliament.
The Conservatives were given their own unchallenged opportunity to attack the SNP [after Labour and the Lib Dems were given their's on Brian's Big Debate] just after when Glenn Campbell sat back and allowed Annabelle Goldie free reign to say whatever she wanted on SNP policy.
Iain Gray was awfull today, his lack of grace was evident as he continually tried to make cheap points about minimum pricing despite a very open and geuine desire for co-operation from Nicola Sturgeon, even Glenn Campbell became irritated by his remarks.
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#9 I prefer Salmond's British Brainwashing Corporation, but it's all about the same when you get down to it. We know who calls the tune and who obediently dances, don't we?
(Interestingly enough, my respond thingie has disappeared--thingie is high level tech-speak ye understand. I think I updated Firefox so maybe I'll try re-installing and see what happens.
I do like the little toy. Very good job making and sharing it!)
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A surprise blog renewal from Brian so I'll post this comment again.
Anyone who is interested in what may have happened to Pan Am Flight 103 will find the following article published in Time magazine in 1992 helpfull. It is probably one of the most comprehensive and informative articles ever written on the Lockerbie tragedy.
Click Here
Pay close attention to the first paragraph of section 7, it raises doubts about Malta being the origin of the bomb.
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#8. Put me on Mr. Taylor's "undesirables" list, I suspect. ;-)
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But the critics of the leadership position have got what they demanded. A party discussion, albeit one held behind closed doors.
Both Scott and the pro-referendum lady gave the game away, the lady stated that she was happy with the outcome and Scott would only say that the party membership, and not him as leader, would dictate future policy.
Why would someone who wanted a referendum right now be happy with the outcome? Only one reason, and that is that a policy change has been promised for the next Holyrood election.
All three Unionist party leaders on today's politics show, all at one point attacked the referendum whilst insisting that only 'serious issues' be debated - they know that their undemocratic stance may seriously damage them.
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But, from the LibDems' own perspective, they believe they have rebalanced to lay stress upon their own position: which is to urge further powers for the Scottish Parliament en route to a federal UK.
Brian, the problem with the Lib-Dems is that trying to pin down what they mean by a federal UK is like nailing jelly to the ceiling. They still haven't managed to work out what they want themselves though it appears that the, "Nations and Regions", idea promoted by Labour for their devolution plans is how they actually want federalism to occur. That is where the UK is broken up into Scotland, Wales, NI and regions of England but not into the four historic, "nations", of Scotland, Wales, NI and England. The Lib-Dems are instinctively against the idea of separating out England from Britain and and giving Scotland, Wales and NI equivalent status to English regions is attractive to them.
Their ideas on what powers the Scottish Parliament should have are just as woolly. They got royally stitched up on the Calman Comission and even in their much trumpeted documents like the, "Steel Commission Report", the final conclusion is always to have a second constitutional convention where somebody else sorts out the nuts and bolts of any settlement because they haven't managed to do it for themselves.
Their major problem with an independence referendum is that they are unionist party and a referendum puts the union at risk. A minor, though perhaps not that minor, problem for them is that Alex Salmond was happy to let them to put a third option on the referendum ballot. That means they would have had to put a costed, worked out option on the ballot paper and that would show up that their aims for more powers for Scotland are pretty much, "jam tomorrow", with nothing concrete to offer. A classic case of the Emperor's New Clothes.
Their position isn't nuanced, they don't want an independence referendum and they have nothing alternative to offer instead of independence apart from the happy catch phrases of, "federalism", and, "more powers".
Nuances, one, two and three and four boil down to nothing more than, federalism is good independence is bad and we don't have anything concrete to offer but we may think of something in the future. Trust us, we're Lib-Dems.
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#9 U14094468/Online Ed
"Iain Gray was awfull today, his lack of grace was evident as he continually tried to make cheap points about minimum pricing despite a very open and geuine desire for co-operation from Nicola Sturgeon, even Glenn Campbell became irritated by his remarks."
Quite so. Moridura has helpfully captured the exchange for us expats here.
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will the SNP sill go ahead knowing they will be defeated unthinkable for A. Salmond. like the local income tax no vote blame all other parties and forget manifesto promises
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As Gray tries to politicise the alcohol debate in Scotland Gordon Brown is under pressure following the sacking of Professor David Nutt the drugs advisor. Two other members of the drugs panel have stood down in protest at the sacking.
Alan Johnson now saying that Brown was not consulted on the sacking. Macavity doing his usual routine when flak starts to fly - running for cover.
Willie Bain need not worry, no-one will ask him his views on Labour's drugs policy. In fact no-one will ask Bain his views on any of Labour's Westminster policies.
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#14 DougtheDug
An excellent summary of what appears to be Mr Scott's concession that there is no longer any Liberalism within the L-Ds and that he believes Jo Chamberlain's Liberal Unionists were right to leave the party and join the modern Tories.
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#14. As an American, I am constantly left breathless by these people informing Scots that their constitutional status is not a serious matter!
And they get away with it. I honestly do not understand how this can be.
Constitutions are not some minor little matter. NOTHING else comes close to guaranteeing people's freedom.
Nothing is MORE important. And such matters should never be decided except by the people.
Salus populi suprema lex esto.
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It would be interesting to know how many delegtes were at this closed door meeting and how many of them were activists and foot-soldiers.
Not many I'll bet and the handful have proceeded to vote for exactly what Alex Salmond wanted them to vote for.
Politically opposition to a popular referendum on the constitution when the party seeking a radical change in this is in power is untenable.
However the LibDems are irrelevant in Scotland at the moment and yesterday did nothing to make them more relevant.
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Online Ed Here
My next comment will contain a link showing Willie Bain and David Kerr being interviewed by Bernard Ponsonby.
The first three minutes provides the clearest indication yet why both Bain and the Glasgow North East campaign have disappeared from the Scottish media.
I hadn't seen this footage before, watch carefully as Ponsonby actually decides to save him.
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Click Here
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Again Brian you avoid the big question - Why behind closed doors ?
There are obviously a significant number of liberals (surprisingly?) in the lib dems. The sop of possible support for a referendum in the next parliament may not be enough. I do hope those decent liberals have the courage of their convictions.
Finally you have still not blogged on whether the labour by-election candidate is london based, on how much labour MPs scammed from the public or whether labour MPs will be able to stop the paybacks ( It seems from reports that MR McNulty had his payback greatly reduced by an obliging fellow labour MP.). These are important matters - so why no investigation? Its OK we all know the answer.
Finally I think the glencampbelly BBC Scotlandshire will be thrown to the wolves in the next six months. I can't say I am sorry.
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@8 oldnat, lol you're obviously a much nicer person than me.
Are you sure you want to be one of his favoured two? I much prefer to be on his undesirables list like JR MacClure.
Caught Tavish the ebullient viking on The Politics Show this afternoon. He was as high as a kite, quite elated really for what was a dreich Sunday chat with Glen Campbell. I reckon more hung on this closed doors meeting than we realise. Tavish is, in his own view, a man reprieved. Shame the rest of the party's going slowly down the pan.
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Brian
As you read this blog can you advise your bosses of my displeasure at the bias agianst the SNP in all BBC politics programmes. This was especially evident in the Politics Show today. We had a piece about the Royal Mail and Goldie used it as a rant about the SNP. I don't mind Gray's rants as he's a fool and makes me laugh out loud so more of him please. Nicola gave him a roasting as per usual. Tavish Scott's smug appearance shows him as the empty vessel that he is - Liberal and Democaratic aye of course he and is party are! The undemocratic media are a joke and a disgrace to Scotland! The contempt they show and the way they operate is fundamentally disturbing. The Orange Order and the BNP are given more credence than the democratically elected Scottish Government. You and your colleagues should hang your heads in shame. Where is the journalism in this country?
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"they say it is at the wrong recessionary time - and with the wrong question" - truth is it'll never be the right time for them. The cringe strikes again, deary deary me!
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
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Not sure why the comments above have been censored but let's try again.
I am surprised that no-one in the Scottish media reported Willie Bain's gaffe when asked about Michael Martin breaking the rules when he used air miles accrued on official business to pay for flights for family members.
Bain replied "it's the rules that are wrong".
A also commented on comment 24 that I too had noticed that Tavish Scott appeared wide eyed and excitable on todays Politics Scotland.
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5. GrassyKnollington
Ever wondered why nationalists are "fervent" but unionists are "staunch"?
It's because independence is on the boil whilst the Union is haemorrhaging.
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For those of you who saw the Politics Show today. Do you not think that the two interviewees were the stereotypical Lib-Dems, a bit woolly and clueless? Similar to the wee woman who is standing for election in NE-Glasgow. What sort of world do they live in? What I look for in my countrymen/women are vibrant forward thinking people like Alex Salmond, John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon. Tavish Scott, Ross Finnie and that Purves character are an embarrassment. If it wasn't for the media the SNP would not have any worthy opposition.
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@30 InfrequentAllele, well said.
For some reason "the union is haemorrhaging" conjured up a surreal picture of Giggity Grey at First Ministers Questions in a Rab C Nesbitt head bandage but maybe that was more to do with his opposition to minimum pricing for alcohol!
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Tavish Scott cares not a jot about Scotland. He can say what he likes because he'll be voted in by the same folks all the time, regardless. His party have no policies just like Labour and the Tories.
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Isn't there SOME rule about equal time for various parties during elections? Funny, how I haven't heard a word about the SNP being given equal time to attack THEIR opponents.
Or maybe that's been kept a deep, dark secret.
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As per John___
"I am yet to hear someone coherently argue for the retention of the union without scaremongering"
My thoughts and observation too! The union is built on sand and time is passing...
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34 - JRM
I just hope Alex and his team are saving something for the right time and is letting the Unionists and their cohorts bluster for the moment. It's beginning to really insult my intelligence!
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#19 Hi JR - yes your point is very well made regarding our desire for a constitutional settlement that gives us, the Scots, the freedom to decide our path and our way.
There are words, when uttered, act like a magic potion and have the power to raise the heckles on the back of the neck! You are fortunate to have a set of such words at the very start of your constitution - "We, the people..... and standing right up there beside them "I have a dream..."
Maybe one day we'll have our own constitution and it might start with the same words as yours and on the road we may have yet to thole a few "dates that will live in infamy" But meantime, I'll close with a qoute from Lt Gen Chesty Puller, another fine American, that should give the cybernats good heart "We're surrounded. That simplifies things". Nothing Glencambly about that statement!
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Nicola Sturgeon wiped the floor with Gray this morning. Nicola -- cool calm and collected, sure of her ground. Gray --- nervous, agitated and on the point of boiling over because he was being wrong footed by Nicola at every turn.
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" 36. At 8:57pm on 01 Nov 2009, SchoolTieColours wrote:
34 - JRM
I just hope Alex and his team are saving something for the right time and is letting the Unionists and their cohorts bluster for the moment. It's beginning to really insult my intelligence"
He could have a couple of dozen pork pies hidden away! O' who eat all the pies!.
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I reckon that Tavish played his "I'll resign if you don't agree with me" card at the meeting. This would have been just slightly worse for the Libs than ditching their principles.
I am sure Tavish must be on a slippery slope with his party if he doesn't raise their profile in Scotland sometime soon.
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And to prove that I am not anti-English, I'll quote an Englishman:
If a nation values anything more than freedom, it will lose its freedom; and the irony of it is that if it is comfort or money that it values more, it will lose that too.
The argument one sees for union over and over and over again are those of comfort and money. I've come to the point of wondering if unionists value anything else. But it's an ill hardly confined to your nation.
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my main view on life is for things to be fair and balanced, even if I disagree with your views as long as it is fair and balanced.
Brian do you see yourself as fair and balanced ?
, you I see as a Kennedy figure during WW2 but maybe thats what you want
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22. U14094468
What an amazing clip! A political interviewer giving both candidates an equally hard time! Seldom seen that before (but then I normally watch BBC).
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Quite possibly means absolutely nothing, but one of the bookies is reporting
"Big shift on the betting front towards the SNP in Glasgow NE in the last 48 hours."
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#29 Online Ed
They've just got to elect Willie T-bone now. A perfect example of a modern MP, he even tells his voters beforehand that he's going to trough for Britain as it's the rules that are wrong!
As for the food question; the rules state that the claims should be made for items wholly, exclusively and necessarily. If you as an MP have to be in London on Constituency or Parliamentary business and the only time you can get with those you need to talk to is breakfast, lunch or dinner then their tab is a legitimate expense and it doesn't matter if it is during sittings or the recess or when the claim was made or paid. Where the rules were wrong was in not demanding receipts and / or persons present.
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#44 oldnat
Crikey, I'd no idea my £5 would make such a difference. There must be at least £35 on Labour. 8-)
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43. At 9:46pm on 01 Nov 2009, oldnat wrote:
22. U14094468
What an amazing clip! A political interviewer giving both candidates an equally hard time! Seldom seen that before (but then I normally watch BBC).
Indeed, and it illustrates perfectly why Bain has been 'hidden' from the media since. His campaign is completely empty as was illustrated when he was questioned on his knife carrying policy - he went into auto pilot and rambled.
Very interesting news regarding bookmaker odds for this contest, SNP have shortened with every bookmaker this last couple of days.
Odds now:
Bookmaker VC .. PPwr .. Lad ... Bet Fair
Labour 4/9 .. 1/2 .. 8/15 .. 3/4
SNP 6/4 .. 5/4 .. 11/8 .. 6/5
Previously PPwr had Labour at 2/5.
Brown's wife was in the constituency again, Brown will make an appearance when he attends the G20 in Fife - this will provide Labour with much needed puff pieces in the press.
I think that Labour's campaign is in trouble and that the media, rather than report it, have decided to simply report nothing.
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So how are the Tories (Bill Aitken especially) in Scotland going to react to this?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8336963.stm
Tory "Call to cut 'farcical' jail terms".
IDS was a terrible party leader, but his visit to Glasgow did seem to turn him into a decent human being - unlike the attitudes of the Labour candidate for Glasgow NE. :-)
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44. At 10:18pm on 01 Nov 2009, oldnat wrote:
Quite possibly means absolutely nothing, but one of the bookies is reporting
"Big shift on the betting front towards the SNP in Glasgow NE in the last 48 hours."
Well, well - no sooner had I posted my comment than yours appeared.
You are of course correct, the odds mean nothing other than a reflection of betting patterns. However, given that this by-election has attracted little by way of coverage then there is no reason to bet on the SNP other than that you find the SNP odds attractive.
Glasgow East saw a bet of £1000 on Labour the day that Margaret Curran announced her candidacy, Labour odds tumbled as a result and produced the desired headlines.
Posters on this blog were ahead of the journalists in recognising the lack of media coverage. Time will tell if we are also ahead of the journalists with our speculation that the Labour campaign is in deep doo doo.
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19. JRMacClure
They think it's a good excuse, but have we actually seen any new thinking beyond the usual on the economy, afghanistan, europe from all these political heavyweights?
btw - quirky
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Apparently Salmond is to visit Glasgow North East again tomorrow after just visiting on Friday - an unexpected change of plan.
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21. U14094468
"Online Ed Here
My next comment will contain a link showing Willie Bain and David Kerr being interviewed by Bernard Ponsonby.
The first three minutes provides the clearest indication yet why both Bain and the Glasgow North East campaign have disappeared from the Scottish media.
I hadn't seen this footage before, watch carefully as Ponsonby actually decides to save him."
Thanks for the link - first time i've seen either canadidate, good interview. You're dead right - labour should have this guy locked in a safehouse somewhere to stop him getting into the media.
thanks to moridura too.
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*kicks computer*
I think an abacus might be a good alternative. Silly thing isn't cooperating. I left notes. ;-)
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Recessions come and go. People fight and die for constitutions.
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I'm not totally sure that this research adds much to the debate on minimum pricing of alcohol
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/health/heavy-drinkers-buy-cheaper-drink-alcohol-study-shows-1.929564
"Heavy drinkers buy cheaper drink, alcohol study shows".
Any other finding would have surprised me. However, since I am enormously rich, I'll just finish the bottle of Bowmore that I opened a couple of hours ago. :-)
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30. InfrequentAllele
"Ever wondered why nationalists are "fervent" but unionists are "staunch"?
It's because independence is on the boil whilst the Union is haemorrhaging."
:)
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#56. Hey. You could share that, you know. ;-)
I'm reduced to drinking American wine. (Actually not half bad)
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44. oldnat
That's interesting, be good to know if it gets reflected in other bookie sources.
With the greatest respect ;) if I had to make a decision with the aid of opinion polling OR bookies odds, i'd be on the phone to the bookie.
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#56 oldnat
On the contrary, this seems to have been done among the poor souls who've already lost it to drink and you're not going to get many of them in your telephone / internet panels. If we can cut the damage to the most damaged already by upping the cost of their poison, and it looks as if it would, that's a step in the right direction.
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58. JRMacClure
"I'm reduced to drinking American wine."
I was surprised to learn that every US state produces wine. Californian is good, but I've tried the wines from Alaska and North Carolina - dreadful!
Next time you come over, we should organise a BT/quirkynats reunion and examine international responses to alcohol! :-)
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#44. I'm willing to bet heavily that if the bookies are changing their odds they have inside information and I'd bet heavily that it's private polling data from within one or the other party.
Unfortunately, I don't see anyone giving odds on that.
I do have some cash riding on the GE though. ;-)
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#56. One of the report's authors said it was "likely" the introduction of a minimum price for alcohol - as proposed by the Scottish Government - would reduce the amount of drink consumed by these problem drinkers and would also lead to a fall in alcohol-related illnesses.
Quote from the referenced article. The question is: do ANY of the opposition actually care a whit about the good of Scotland? Minimum pricing certainly isn't a cure-all, but it has to be worth trying.
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395. raisethegame
Democracy Live
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I think everyone in Scotland needs to read these two articles.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6898672.ece
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6898736.ece
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60. handclapping
"the poor souls who've already lost it to drink"
I'm being deliberately "light-hearted" about this problem, as my best and oldest friend is near the end tonight due to drink. That's how he would have responded. I jest in his honour.
On the substantive issue, the SNP are totally right. If the real cost of alcohol had remained at 1960s prices then it wouldn't have been so easy for him to kill himself that way.
Sorry to be personal on this.
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19. JRMacClure
Got round to checking your latin (i don't speak the lingo :)
My kind of motto! Sounds like a good one for any self-respecting country to hold itself to.
'The welfare of the people shall be the supreme law'
notes have been appended.
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Some bloggers seem to be stone cold sober drinking bottles of hope!.
And them good old boys were drinking whisky and rye in the cold november rain.
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65. Wee-Scamp
So despite using the oil revenues as part of "current income" instead of investing a one-off resource as Norway did and the SNP urged should happen, that entire income stream has been wasted under successive Tory/Labour Governments.
We now find ourselves saddled with horrendous National Debt because a significant proportion of Scots voters decided that allowing London to decide things was a good idea.
Thanks to all the Con/Lab/LD voters - it's your mess but all of us have to pick up the tab for your stupidity.
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Well, just spent the day driving up to Aberdeen and back in a luton van - not recommended in the current weather conditions!
It reminded me about the Lib Dems - wet and windy!
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How little we know about the human habits and addiction.Neil Young once sang about the damage down by addicts and their personality.He also noted that addiction was something we all shared and it's not just related to drugs or alcohol, it could be food,money or even quirky off the track addictions.
Apparently Aborigines have a low thresh hold to consume alcohol, it's something to do with their blood-line and a majority of Aborigines that drink get drunk very fast and become addicts extremely quick.
So how do we stop addiction? you don't stop human nature you control it! by early years intervention and education.
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#68. Have the lyrics a bit wrong there, derek, and changed the meaning and the heart.
That's what happens when you try to twist and distort it for your own purpose--been taking lessons from the BBC and Scotsman, I see. That's too bad.
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72 JR
Lyrics? it is November JR! however we both know that nothing last for ever and we both know that things can change but it does look as-though the Independence question is dead in the cold november rain?.
Cheer up Buddy it doesn't have to be all Guns and no roses.
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Haha! Conan the Librarian strikes again:
The Hootsman
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71. brownresolute
I posted a link to an article on the Portugal drug laws on the previous thread. I think they could go further but their laws are a big step in the direction of doing exactly that.
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73. brownresolute
Haha. You're amusing in that you can't get your lyrics or your performers right. Don McLean. I'm perfectly cheerful. You're the one who's desperately looking for something to twist to your own devices.
However, I've no problem with quoting Guns n' Roses:
What we've got here is failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach...
I think there are quite a few who you just can't reach. Or as someone sometimes said, there are none so blind as those who will not see.
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76 JR
"What we've got here is failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach..."
We like to call it "A failure to agree" it's more progressive than your
quote!.
I will track back and read your post on the other thread, re-Portugal!.
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73. brownresolute
As far as independence being dead--independence and freedom are never dead as long as people fight for them. Those are an eternal struggle.
However, if you mean Scottish independence in particular, it seems to be right on track exactly as I rather suspect the canny Mr. Salmond has it planned.
Benjamin Franklin said when he was about to sign the our own Constitution after we achieved independence -- from a certain union: “I have often and often in the course of the Session, and the vicissitudes of my hopes and fears as to its issue, looked at that behind the President without being able to tell whether it was rising or setting: But now at length I have the happiness to know that it is a rising and not a setting Sun.”
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I'm surprised that anyone is surprised about the LibDem decision on the referendum. And even more surprised that anyone thinks the SNP leadership expected anything else. Its the unionist refusal to have referendum that is playing well for the SNP and that and LIT will be the central planks on the next manifesto.
There will of course be a referendum in due course and those who have opposed it will lose heavily as much because of their undemocratic block as on the substantive issue of the referendum.
Still running rings round them - and its only a matter of time till the majority of Scots recognise the dishonesty of the media and disregard its poison completely.
Odd noises coming out of Glasgow North East. Thousands of more voters suddenly. Electoral Commission already engaged. Odds on SNP vicory shortening (I knew I should have put that tenner on last week). Have the SNP beaten them to the postal vote? Is the Labour candidate a diddy? If you live in Springburn what time do your children have to get up in the morning to get to their school in Hammersmith? We should be told.
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78JR
Benjamin Franklin! and the staircase to rome? or was that the Whitehouse? the brotherhood of several degree's 11/11/11?.
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79. sneckedagain
The White House? Oh, brownie, brownie, brownie. He didn't live to see the White House nor was he ever president. And now you're going on about Freemasonry? You do squirm aboot.
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79. sneckedagain
I can't imagine that many people were surprised. I would have been astonished at another outcome. It was a foregone conclusion. What you see, I think, is people considering what the repercussions will be.
It is, in my opinion, exactly as planned. The referendum will come in due course, as you say, as much as the opponents resist it. The people of Scotland WILL have their say.
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81. JRMacClure
Apologies. That was in reference to 80 and not 79--rather obviously.
Sorry. Even women don't always multi-task well. :-)
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61. oldnat
Washington and Oregon wines are pretty good too, some of them. East Coast wines were "infected" with native grape stocks, I've read, and have never recovered. Quite undrinkable.
With any luck at all, I'll have an excuse to be out that way next year and we can hopefully have a reunion and clink a glass.
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Online Ed Here
I posted a comment last night that one of the surest signs that Labour's campaign mightn't be as robust as they had hoped was when contrived stories start to appear in the press.
The comment exlained that The Scotsman today would be running just such a story on LIT being dropped by the SNP, the comment was censored [referred without ever appearing].
The Scotsman does indeed have this story.
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#74 JRMacClure
"Haha! Conan the Librarian strikes again"
LOL. Well up to his high standards. Meanwhile on the real Hootsmon.... we have the usual probing and incisive coverage exemplified in Sarah Brown campaigns in Glasgow by-election, best described by comment #10: "doing her paper round?"
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#85 U14094468/Online Ed
Thanks for the heads-up to the Scotsman's E-mail hint of SNP's plans for property tax by David Maddox.
As comment #17 aptly puts it:
"Does Maddox ever base any of his articles on facts?
He seems to have become the resident Gossip Columnist."
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Back on-topic, the Herald's ingenious LibDem hostility sinks independence bill suggests that all those nice unionists are merely trying to be kind to the SNP and save Mr Salmond from his own folly with:
"Many MSPs believe the SNP exercise is a charade, as Mr Salmond does not want a referendum in case he loses and fatally undermines his authority."
How generous of them.
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On referendums, the official branch of the unionist party's UK policy seem to be wobbling a bit. Political Betting explain in their Will a “Manifesto Mandate” do instead of a referendum? helpfully subtitled: "Could this solve Cameron’s Lisbon ratification difficulties?"
PB don't have any referendum low-down on NuLab's plans, but they have a good summary on the spat between the not-so-Nutty Professor and AlJo [BoJo's nemesis?] and his decreasing likelihood of succeeding Duff Gordon with their Was this the end of AJ4PM?.
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69. oldnat
What a positive post! It is all someone else's fault. Of course you and the SNP leadership were all warning about the imminent financial disaster. Alec being a trained economist, of some renown we are led to believe, campaigned at the last election saying what about banks? More of the same please.
Fred Goodwin couldn't sit down for fear of breaking some politician or t others neck. They were queuing up to shower praise on him. Not one single politican saw it coming, so we are all in the mess together.
I never like singling out any group and trying to blame them for a nations ills. Dangerous ground that.
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" Lockerbie bomber had 'three months to live'... now he's well enough to go home"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1224567/Lockerbie-bomber-months-live--hes-home.html#ixzz0VhIMYtpd
Can we expect an over enthusiastic BBC reporter to fill a Newsnight Scotland with this information?
Or are we to be blest with a " let sleeping dogs lie " policy?
Could it be that the NHS, that hallowed institution , is lagging behind - heaven forfend! - Libya?
It would seem that Sky News was a little " previous" with news of his death!
I wonder if the Scotsman is still taking bets....???
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I have just watched the link to the interview with Bain & Kerr. How wonderful it was to see an interview that wasn't a Labour party political broadcast.
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The Liberal Democrats' Federalism idea is a convenient one for the many crypto-strong unionists in the party.Federalism can only work if there is a designated federal territory that does not belong to any of the member states.I don't see the English people accepting a couple of square miles of London ceasing to be part of England and becoming UK Federal Territory.And any attempt at federalism that maintained the Houses of Parliament as the UK Parliament on English soil,supposedly overseeing fairness between an English state of 51 million and 5 million Scots and 3 million Welsh is a risible notion to say the least.
Federalism more or less works in Canada and Australia because they were frontier countries that did not feel burdened by history when the several states were created.
Let's imagine for the sake of argument,Scotland having maximum home rule in a federal UK.What benefit would there be in Scotland being dragged into an illegal war against her will,having to pay her share of obscene nuclear weapons and constantly being hampered at Brussels by meddling UK diplomats under instruction from London?
The federal idea appeals to the Asquithian type Liberals and the former SDP folk in the Lib Dems because they know it makes them look keen on constitutional change while they really know federalism is a non-starter.
The truth is the Scottish Liberal Democrats is a very different thing from the old Scottish Liberal Party.Most of the Scottish Lib Dem leadership are thirled to London.Correct me if I'm wrong but I seem to remember Alex Salmond poking fun at Tavish Scott at Holyrood by quoting a Tavish interview with the Big Issue in which he stated that he would like to be in the House of Lords one day.
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This is all such nonsense.
A majority of Scots have never voted, at any election, to support independence.
So SNP bloggers tell us that support is nonetheless massive..?
Lots of other commentators say that the silent majority wants capital punishment, corporal punishment or no BBC.
Are we to offer a referendum to all of them too on the grounds that it is "undemocratic" not to?
Grow up.
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News coming in about the Tornado side track off the west coast of Shetland.
www.ariva.de/news/Tornado-side-track-result-3116333
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#69 Old Nat
Correct.... What is even worse is that in his recent report on Energy Security the former energy minister Malcolm Wicks admits that the UK - not just Scotland - says in respect of energy R&D "the UK does not compare well with other countries. This is partly a result of the UK not having a major industrial base in the energy sector and the UK having ended its involvement in the development of technologies such as wind power (now dominated by central Europe), nuclear energy (France) and solar photovoltaics (Japan)."
So - rather than some of the oil and gas revenues it being reinvested in new energy technologies it has been squandered on heaven knows what...... It's economic mismanagement of the very worst kind.
And what an admissio by an energy minister to say we haven't got a major industrial base in the energy sector... After thirty something years of oil and gas this is truly shameful ....
One might ask where were all the Scottish CBI members?
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#94
What a silly post.
Scots have never been asked to vote for or against independence in any vote.
I presume you will be calling for the appropriate referendum.
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#94 jde1968
I have to agree with you. I cannot see why they won't have a referendum. It's like 67% want one with 28% against. If the independence vote is only 33% with 50% against, I can't see why they don't have the referendum and put the SNP out of business for the next 20 years. It's not even as if the present SNP referendum is the final thing anyway if it passed and if it failed, bye-bye SNP. As Wendy said "Bring it on!"
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90. northhighlander
"singling out any group and trying to blame them for a nations ills"
I'm blaming far more than one group! The decision not to create a UK Oil Fund in the 70s, but to treat the oil revenue as part of the current income stream, was spectacularly stupid and selfish. The continuation of that policy to date was no less stupid.
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#94 jde1968
"A majority of Scots have never voted, at any election, to support independence. So SNP bloggers tell us that support is nonetheless massive..?"
Not so, and BTW a lot of us here are not SNP members but have merely given up on the three unionist Tweedles. The Greens, the SSP and others also support independence.
What a majority here do say, along with the SNP is that a significant majority support a referendum on independence. There is plenty of evidence for this - see this website's glencambly Backing for more Holyrood powers, which "just happens" not to mention that ICM also asked:
Q: Are you in favour or against the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent?
A: 58% In favour, 37% Against, Don't Know 5%
The link to the poll details has been removed from this website but you can find the PDF here on ICM's site listed under June 2009 as BBC Scotland Poll.
"Lots of other commentators say that the silent majority wants capital punishment, corporal punishment or no BBC. Are we to offer a referendum to all of them too on the grounds that it is "undemocratic" not to?"
I have seen no polling evidence on that lately, but why should there not be such a referendum if such a proposition has substantial support?
Of course, it would have to be a "rigged question" as Messrs Gray and Scott would say, since it would either have to be linked to leaving the EU or more likely give permission for the local government to negotiate to opt out of relevant EU law.
Even that would be a can of worms given the UK's current polity with different legal systems partially overlapping. In practice, there would probably have to be separate referendums in the four "home" nations. That, at least, would be a good opportunity to ask them whether they wanted to remain part of the UK.
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#93
You are spot on. The "Federal" solution is a convenient bolt hole for those who would like to pretend they are for progressive constitutional change but actually support the status quo.
It is the next hurdle that will be put in our way.
There is absolutely no chance of a federation made up of one part (England) which is ten times the size of all the rest (Scotland, Wales, N Ireland) put together unless Scotland is reduced to the status of Yorkshire or Devon in it.
Such federalism is a complete non-starter and those who suggest it (the slippery LibDems in particular)know this full well.
There are a number of areas in which the component parts of the dismantled British State would sensible co-operate (and Ireland could probably sensibly be persuaded to contribute) such as public service broadcasting but such a federation will be much more easily achieved from a Scottish position of independence.
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The Lib Dems position on the referendum reminds me of asking some one to 'try and sit down'. The reality is you are either sitting or you are not - no matter at what height you try to 'hover' over the seat and you waste a lot of energy doing so.
That is the problem with nuance.... it is usually seen for what it is, an empty gesture.
On the Willie Bain theme; One of Glasgow Labour's top councillors spent ages on Saturday night trying to persuade me Bain still lectured at Strathclyde Uni full time and stayed with his folks ... I didn't have the heart to tell her she was telling big porkies as he lectures, works and lives in London and it would be one heck of a commute from Springburn each day.
Brian give's a laugh and see if the EBC will let you get away with asking Willie Bain just what steps he will be taking to ensure the Calman Report is implemented in full or part ..... you know something it is within his remit to do..... rather than blustering on about stuff that is a MSP's responsibility.
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Decent article by Iain MacWhirter in today’s Herald, apart from the last paragraph:
Why Lib Dem veto makes a referendum inevitable.
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afternoon, #96 wee scamp, yep it is a difficult one. should we have invested in our energy security,or maybe tackle some child poverty within the UK or maybe even look after our pensioners a wee bit better the right thing to do?
or was being the US of A's lapdog , entering into illegal wars and kidding ourselves on that we were still a world power that people looked up to and respected, a better thing to do?
OH, decisions decisions.
I wouldn't have that job ,not even for all the expenses in westminster
,never mind all the tea in china!!
Sid
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#103
Yes,a fairly good piece by MacWhirter except for one thing.He completely dismisses the possibility of support for independence increasing as a result of a referendum campaign.Strange.
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94. jde1968
"Lots of other commentators say that the silent majority wants capital punishment, corporal punishment or no BBC.
Are we to offer a referendum to all of them too on the grounds that it is "undemocratic" not to?"
Do they have political organisations which have existed for over 70 years dedicated to the promotion of those specific ideals, and actively engaged with the electorate over that time period to gather and organise popular support for said ideals. Have those efforts been rewarded by that party now being the largest party in the parliament of its country?
If so - yes we should, if not - no!
"Grow up."
Send your strawman back up the the yellow brick road and pop your dummy back in.
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Now that the YouGov poll data is available on their site, I thought I'd have a closer look at the November and June data.
The drop in SNP support is largest among males (-7%), aged 55+ (-9%) in social classes ABC1 (-6%).
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Where has the idea that voting SNP was a vote for independence come from ? I suspect that a lot of people like myself voted for the SNP to get rid of the abominable Labour/ commie regime that was ruining the country. Since it was impossible for the Tories to win, the Lib/ Dems are an irrelevance and part of Labours fifth column,and the greens are a meaningless waste of space , that only left the SNP to hopefully bring some hope to Scotland's future. However independence is another kettle of fish, especially when the new found independence would be handed over to the Franco German alliance in Brussels. This would make nonsense of the whole concept of independence.
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We now know that the argument will carry on, that most of the people who voted LAB/CON/LDP etc want to stay in the Union, it has nothing to do with the fact that they may be life long supporters of said parties or have been brought up to vote that way.
I always thought we should let the people decide want they want, it may be they are running scared and the figures banded about might fall against them.
I also go back to a point I raised previously, these people/parties should be directly responsible for the people of Scotland not West Minster, and who knows who would be running an Independent Scotland in years to come, what would the Tories give to be in that position if it ever happened.?????
Will dumping old nuclear subs in Scotland not have an adverse affect on certain parties??? (I suppose this is where we get too stupid (contamination) from when we want to run our own affairs)
Can I ask in a Independent Scotland would we be aloud to build our own Navy?? (please someone enlighten me as again this would be a good bit of business for the Clyde!!!!)
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#104 ... sidthesceptic
And a good afternoon to you...
Investing in energy technologies is a good thing...... For example - regardless of one's opinion of wind turbines the fact is that the companies that manufacture that technology employ a lot of highly skilled people, export a huge amount of hardware and pay a lot of taxes. All that contributes very positively to reducing child poverty, helps improve pension values and so on and so forth.
We need companies like that and others to achieve all those socially worthwhile aims.......
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Thank you to U14094468 at #22 and TaofMoridura for recording the STV interview by Bernard Ponsonby of Labour’s Willie Bain and the SNP’s David Kerr, which I missed on its first airing.
I do try to be as even handed as possible when I watch politicians who have a different outlook to myself.
So, watching Bain and Kerr I sat back to critically appraise both their performances, and the performance of the interviewer Ponsonby.
I was taken by complete surprise at how bad Bain was, both intellectually but also at how blatant he was in not answering the questions. It quickly became apparent he couldn’t supply answers, as he had not anticipated the need to prepare any; unforgivable given the fact that, for example, his knife proposal has been attacked already.
It suggests Labour are really in one huge hole if he is the best they can shoe into what should be an ultra safe seat.
Kerr impressed me both intellectually and with his preparation. He looks like he will make a good MP if he manages to pull it off.
Ponsonby too was very good. I will be watching more STV on this showing of robust but even-handed political coverage. If anything highlights more clearly the increasingly biased BBC coverage of Scottish politics this was it.
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#96 Wee-Scamp
#110 Wee-Scamp
Two very good posts. I agree totally.
Scotland should be investing in its future. After all Westmidden does not appear to invest in anybodies future.
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I think this is a new BBC website giving coverage of all the Parliaments/Assemblies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/
I don't know whether it is viewable abroad.
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oops should be "allowed" sorry
Bain and the lady representing the LIB/DEM should get together that would be a debate worth watching!!!
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Well that's annoying. The BBC's eaten my username. So here's the upgraded InfrequentAllele 2.0, which is exactly the same as the one before - buggy and with a tendency to crash.
94. jde1968
You may have noticed that the constitutional question obesses the Scottish body politic, and not just the SNP - eg. the Calman Commission set up by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories. The Lib Dems have just had a special closed meeting in order to decide their position on the consitition and an independence referendum.
As a society Scotland is doomed to run around in circles asking ourselves what role Scotland plays in the Union, who pays for what, and who is ripping off whom - and there is a significant body of Scottish opinion which doesn't want to be a part of the Union at all. None of this will change until there is a referendum on independence which may settle the question for once and all. If you really wanted grown up politics you'd be arguing strongly for a referendum. Instead you prefer Scottish politics to remain infantalised, yet you're telling the rest of us to grow up. Do you do irony?
What your argument boils down to is that a referendum on independence should not be held until such time as it was certain that most people will vote yes. In that case there would hardly be much point in having a referendum.
109. Ahumscottish2
Of course Scotland could have its own navy if we were independent - if Scotland decided it was in Scotland's interests to have one. Scotland would have the freedom to do what any independent country does. But an independent Scotland would not require a navy the size of the Royal Navy, we wouldn't need aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines. We could spend those funds on more useful things - like ensuring secure alternative employment for Clydeside ship workers or sending ex-BBC journalists to the Moon.
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94. At 11:12am on 02 Nov 2009, jde1968 wrote:
"A majority of Scots have never voted, at any election, to support independence."
I have never had the chance. I believe the only one chance scots did have was highly dubious - using non votes and dead people votes as an approval for the status quo.
"Lots of other commentators say that the silent majority wants capital punishment, corporal punishment or no BBC.
Are we to offer a referendum to all of them too on the grounds that it is "undemocratic" not to?"
Yes, most definately we should.
It is after all much easier to give in to the apathy and just pretendy its all right, but don't you find it quite cold beneath there?
***********************************
Lib dems stance = Lets be brave and give it the big "Come ahead". Then they realised just how strong nationalism has become - OOOPS, lets dig out of this one quick. Bye bye lib dems and good ridence.
I'd just like to point out to the more naive that nationslist does not = snp supporter automatically.
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#107 oldnat
The PPI weightings still havent changed. Still if you ask 401 people who identify with Labour how they vote and only 294 are still going to then it shows Global is doing something right. Pity it's not for his own party!
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39 Brownabsolutelybonkers
You talk mince so you know all about pies!
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#107 oldnat
"Now that the YouGov poll data is available on their site...."
Thanks for the heads-up, but no wonder it was available today when polling finished last Wednesday (28th), and YouGov's recent UK polls have been available next day. I suspect the Greens were none too happy with their showing, but I wonder why they held it back and presumably only issued their statement yesterday as the Curtice and the Herald had already got hold of it.
Still some very questionable weightings, though.
#113 oldnat
"http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/
I don't know whether it is viewable abroad."
Yes it is. Having seen cynicalHighlander's #64 this morning, the recorded coverage worked fine. The live coverage is now also working even though that's a gimmick since all the chambers were available before on the sites of the relevant parliaments / assemblies. There was a Q&A available this morning confirming it would not be IP hobbled for expats, but that seems to have disappeared.
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"107. At 2:43pm on 02 Nov 2009, oldnat wrote:
Now that the YouGov poll data is available on their site, I thought I'd have a closer look at the November and June data.
The drop in SNP support is largest among males (-7%), aged 55+ (-9%) in social classes ABC1 (-6%)."
Yes, and I have an incling or two as to why. They have lost my vote and support untill they pull their heads out from up their ???? and realise Scotland has had enough of being sold to the highest bidder. To think they say they stand for freedom and compassion. They harp on about being bought and sold, they harp on about freedom they harp on about compassion. Our country is still being bandied about to who ever can pay the most money or make the biggest quick kill. They will stand by while people will be forced from their homes, tearing heaps of people apart - yeah, very compassionate. Well, if that's there vision of freedom they have very much let me down, along with the guys who made up your figures above ON. They've lost many a common mans good word in crucial areas I beleieve. They should know when to get biggers boots.
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#109 "Can I ask in a Independent Scotland would we be aloud to build our own Navy?? (please someone enlighten me as again this would be a good bit of business for the Clyde!!!!)"
Yes. All independent nations have a right to maintain armed forces. I believe that for an independent Scotland, a relatively small but well trained and equiped military, all volunteers (i.e. no conscripts) is most likely and most suitable. Preferably, again, in my opinion, the Scottish defence forces would only be used for national defence - which is unlikely to ever be an immediate danger, we are here at the edge of the world after all - and for UN-approved peacekeeping and security missions. All with an eye to accomplishing world peace one day, far off though that day may seem. In the short term, it would indeed be good business for the Clyde. There will be naysayers, but there are nations of similar size, population and resources as Scotland who run and defend themselves just fine.
As a side note, there are now a few websites which sell the jack of the old Scottish Navy (the Saltire on a red ensign) for use on ships. Look for websites which sell flags, particularly British ones. Its a decent alternative for anyone who would like to fly a Scottish flag from their ship...who doesn't have a ship?...but thinks flying the Saltire would be confusing (a very similar naval flag is the signal for 'my ship is stuck' or something like that).
Glasgow being the main Scottish port is definitely an effect of the British Empire; being on the west coast it faces America and the rest of the world. In previous centuries, east coast ports had been more important as they had easier access to the Low Countries, France, Scandanavia, etc. at a time when Europe was of the greatest importance. The Scottish flagship Great Michael (at the time the biggest warship in Europe, perhaps with the biggest main cannon of history up to that point) was built in Newhaven in 1504. Bit of history for you there.
Back on topic. The Unionist parties are going to find it very hard to convince people they aren't anti-democratic, and its a weapon the SNP will use with abandon. If the majority of Scots don't support independence (yet) then they'd at least like to settle the matter. Not that the matter will be settled any time soon. Our generation doesn't have the right or ability to decide the future of all further generations. If the people vote Yes, the Unionists will either try and live with it or re-unite the kingdom. If the people vote No, then those who support independence will keep plugging away until it happens.
Ultimately, everyone has to decide what the right thing to do is NOW. Good effects, bad effects, will all ebb and flow over time, and peoples minds will change. Right now there is growing support for independence - if the election of a nationalist government and the Unionists' fears of a referendum say anything - and I believe that the Scots, old and new, have a right to choose how things play out in their lifetime. The Unionists' actions now smack of delaying action, but without any apparent plan to encourage unionism or Britishness which would be vital in holding the UK together. As it stands, the SNP will get their referendum sooner or later, and they'll keep trying to get them until Scotland joins the world community of nations.
I admit, I'm not unbiased. I love the whole world, subscribe to National Geographic and everything, but Scotland is the wee bit of it that I'm from and, honestly, I'm rather proud of it. I'd like us to be recognised by the world. It would give my own self esteem a little boost too. Federalism seems like a good middle ground to some, and that's fair. But this isn't the United States, Switzerland or Malaysia. Scotland has to be in a sitation which suits Scotland. And I feel Scotland is a nation.
Mind you, of all the Union parties, I imagine the LibDems fitting into an independent Scotland a bit easier than the others. Thoughts?
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#121
Arkesane
Of course you're right. The LibDems have over the past few years removed from their political activities anything vthat would give any sensible person a reason to vote for them.
Scotland's libDems are the party with most to gain from independence but they have tied themselves to the Labour Party.
Don't imagine their handful of remaining Liberal activists are in any way happy
And "federalism" is a useful device for thosae who would like the people of Scotland to spend much of thr rest of this century discussing and arguing about how much more or how less power Scotland should exercise in a Federal solution. I suspect the SNP are happy to have discussion on a multi option referendum because it will be oh so easy to blow this fantasy federalism out of the water.
I repeat if we want to share some of our sovereignty as part of a Federation it is much easier to arrange that from the position of an independent Scotland (and there is pretty powerful argument to say that our best destination in a federation would be with Iceland,Ireland, the Faeroes, Norway and Denmark)
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115 Infrequentallele2
121 Arkesane
Thanks for that it is appreciated.
I asked this question mainly because, we usually get threaten with no possible work for the shipyards if/when we are independent, it seems a shame when parties resort to this.
I suppose it would also be good to claim back our regiments as well as as that navy flag that once was.
121
LIB/DEM you may have a point, but I go back to where wee Tavish comes from and is elected to represent, this has an oil fund which does marvellous things for the Shetlands, why he cannot bring himself and his party to let everyone have a vote on this important decision is beyond belief. If anyone should know what benefits have control of financial well being it is him. What is he playing at.
As for the BBC vs STV on unbiasedness there is only 1 winner (license payers in England/Wales out way little old us so status quo suits them) can you imagine the conversion political interviewers {if you show SNP and the break up of the Union in a good light that you might lose your job!!!!}
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121 Arkesane
Maybe the old Liberals would have embraced the independence movement with more vigour but they had scruples. The current lot with that idiot Scott in charge are clueless and lack integrity. They flit from one thing to other to please the Unionist mindset.
120 Phil
What sort of rant was that? Are you Ian Gray or Margaret Curran?
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Online Ed Here
Bookies continue to shorten SNP odds:
Bookmaker PPwr Lad Bet Fair
Labour 8/11 8/13 13/16
SNP 1 6/5 11/10
I stated in a post last night that Alex Salmond was planning to re-visit Glasgow North East. It was actually Alex Neil that visited today - apologies.
BBC Radio Scotland are conducting a series of interviews with the candidates this week. Today saw Lib Dem's Baxendale interviewed at around 07:30 this morning - interview pretty much as expected.
I don't know to what extent the BBC are repeating these interviews or are they restricting candidate exposure to very early or very late [Kerr and Bain will be on Newsnight this week].
I am trying to find time to visit and help out before the 12th - fingers crossed.
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# 115 InfrequentAllele2
I had the same problem hence the gedguy2.
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# 115 InfrequentAllele2
or sending ex-BBC journalists to the Moon.
Glad to see we're thinking of entering the space race.
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64. cynicalHighlander
And any subsequent posters
"Democracy Live"
They've used speech-to-text processing, so you can use text to search for particular spoken comments in speeches.
From their 'About the BBC' page page on in it -
"Democracy Live gives you the ability to search for a specific word or words spoken in the proceedings and the results will give you links to the points in the video where they were spoken. The ability to home in on the passages which are of direct interest and relevance to you is at the heart of Democracy Live's purpose."
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125. U14094468
It would be fascinating to know exactly what the bookies have heard.
Bookies have been known to be wrong but they don't make money by making a habit of it.
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129. JRMacClure
"It would be fascinating to know exactly what the bookies have heard. "
I suspect they are simply responding to more money being piled on to an SNP win. Which raises the interesting questions - who is betting on an SNP win, and why are they doing it?
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130. oldnat
Possibly. But I happen to know that in certain political parties some people make a fair bit of pocket change by tipping off bookies on private polls. This is so consistent across the board and rather marked either a lot of bets are being laid or they've heard something.
Interesting, at any rate. You can't take as more than a hint but with the rather odd election coverage, it has me wondering.
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Hello,
not sure of the form for intros, but I've been lurking for while, reading with interest. I've been a pragmatic Scottish Nationalist for the last dozen years or so and live in the constituency de jour, Glasgow North East.
A piece on the by election on R4's PM programme tonight, in the last 10 minutes or so - 'no upsets expected this time' seemed to be the general message, though not much evidence to back it up.
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#123 ahumscottish2
If u have a moment pop over to Norway and visit some of their shipyards. They are very busy building a variety of vessels for use in the offshore and other sectors. The same applies particularly to Finland and to an extent Sweden as well....
In addition - cast your mind back a month or so when the latest Queen Mary visited Scotland..... That was built in France...
There's a lot more to shipbuilding than naval vessels..... Sadly though we're not doing much of either. Another union dividend courtesy of the miserable Treasury and it's pals in the City.....
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132. dukess2008
They could be right. That would be one very, very big swing and the SNP has taken quite a battering in the media (even worse than usual) what with al-Megrahi and GARL. While I think one can easily argue they did the right thing -- possibly the only thing that could have been done -- in both cases, I think you see a drop in their poll numbers across the board because of these factors.
But... Maybe they're wrong. In a few weeks, the voters will have their say.
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132. dukess2008
Hi and welcome.
There's no "form" here. This blog is home to a bunch of eccentrics who like politics - and argument!
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#132 dukess2008
"A piece on the by election on R4's PM programme tonight, in the last 10 minutes or so - 'no upsets expected this time' seemed to be the general message, though not much evidence to back it up."
Welcome, and thanks for the PM tip. Just listened to the 4 minutes or so on the iPlayer here. The coverage starts just after 49m in and, as you say, is pretty unedifying. It was a smart move not to interview Bain, although Wendy's brother was little better. Scott could come up with nothing but an anti-independence rant, presumably dreaming of a renewed Lab-LD coalition in 2011. He certainly can't be dreaming of victory for his own nice but dim candidate.
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132. dukess2008
"not sure of the form for intros, but I've been lurking for while, reading with interest. "
Hi dukess2008!
I'm a recently (around megrahi/macaskill) decloaked lurker too - welcome! I look forward to another voice on the comments threads here. Not to mention any local insight you have, given the current election.
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I must admit being totally baffled by the "I've voted Labour for 55 years and they've never done anything for me so I'm voting for thema again" attitude of many people in that (and some other) constituencies. Mind boggling.
Even though it is very possible that the bookies have some inside information, it does seem to me this would be a very tough win for the SNP.
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#134
In my opinion the al Megrahi affair increased SNP support, particularly with informed voters, and every free poll across the country confirmed this.
The pragmatic GARL cancellation is widely welcomed in most parts though as I don't live in Glasgow it is possible that this is not the case there. However my many relatives there were generally unaware of the plan and have little strong feeling about its cancellation.It certainly isn't an issue that has much resonance despite frantic attempts in defence of the Labour party position in much of the press. However the continuous level of antiSNP invective on every conceivable issue in every media organ must have a corrosive effect.
This is the last stand of the Union. If SNP win Glasgow North East in the teeth of this dishonest and desperate rearguard action the ball indeed will be on the slates.
I'll be up in Glasgow North East on Saturday with a big team from my constituency. I will be surprised if there is not more than 1000 SNP helpers there on the day. Win or lose this one the momentum is with us and history will record 50 years of relentless progress for an idea whose time has come. When I joined the SNP around 50 years ago the party had just achieved the grand total of about half of one percent of the popular vote in a Scottish election.
Last Saturday SNP activists in this area visited a 105 year old man who has insisted on reactivating the SNP branch in his village. That's the kind of stuff we're made of.
There is a time for everything. It's time.
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I see the website is still sporting the wonders of Wendy.
I'm sure there is someone somewhere who thinks she is wonderful....
I used to think so too, at least when she lisped the immortal words ,
" Bring it on! "
Words we will never hear from the Illiberal Party.
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Online Ed Here
Good to see the erstwhile MP for Springburn 'Baron Martin of Springburn' displaying the kind of selfless responsibility we expect from Labour.
On Damian Green's office search:
"It never occurred to me that the Sergeant would give consent to a search of a member's office in a police investigation without a warrant."
He added: "I do not believe that the correct decision was made by the Sergeant in consenting to the search taking place, I also believe the House through its Speaker was not served as well as it ought to have been."
It's someone elses fault, so there.
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139. sneckedagain
No offense meant, sneckedagain. Those seem the most likely explanation for the SNP slipping a bit in the (few or should I say only?) Scottish poll I've seen. But it could, as you point out, be an accumulation of constant attacks. It is something that the SNP will have to address if it continues. It could also be a polling anomaly. Even for the best pollsters, they happen and I didn't see the questions of the poll either which makes me question its validity.
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139 sneckedagain
"The pragmatic GARL cancellation is widely welcomed in most parts"
Am I not right in thinking that the station it was going from was Glasgow Central? Surely Queen Street would have been more sensible?
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Online Ed Here
I see Michael Martin is now embroiled in a row with the Metropolitan police over suggestions that they 'tricked' the serjeant at arms into allowing them to search Damian Green's offices.
I wonder if this story will make it over the border given the by-election caused by Martin's resignation.
At this rate he'll run out of bucks to pass.
Meanwhile, Willie Bain continues to hide from the media who continue not to look for him.
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#139 Sneckedagain.
Great post! Once a nationalist always a nationalist. That is why we can get a 1000 plus out to fight by-elections. It means so much more to us.
Freedom
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144. U14094468
Blaming a subordinate who is in no position to defend herself and one (if I understand correctly) he appointed seems low.
Am I correct in understanding that Martin "dumbed down" the position of serjeant at arms which had previously gone to people with substantial military or police experience? I'm not clear on how that works.
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Online Ed Here
Tom Harris now smearing David Kerr on his blog - Labour are worried about something.
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#143 patrickspens
Glasgow Airport is just North of Paisley. The Paisley trains all go from Central and the bit of the GARL project that is to create a third track through to Paisley is still going ahead. It's just the last wee dead-end bit on a viaduct, moving playing fields and the airport kerosine tank farm that has spiralled to £175. As there is a bus service to and from the city centre and there are always taxis at Gilmore Street and soon there'll be noone can afford a flight to Benidorm any more as the oil runs out I think it was a sensible thing to drop. Queen Street would be on the wrong side of the river for a good connection.
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143 Patrickspens
It would only be possible to run train services directly from Queen St to Glasgow Airport if the Glasgow Crossrail project were built. But it seems there's not any funding for that either.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Crossrail
Scotland is suffering the consequences of generations of underinvestment in transport infrastructure, the fault of successive Westminster governments. Scotland's low priority when it comes to major transport infrastructure projects is illustrated by the fact that we took so long to be connected to the English motorway network and for decades the motorways stopped at Carlisle.
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Online Ed Here
Goodness, I hadn't realised that The Herald were also running the same smear.
Click Here
I did say that The Herald would do this some time ago - there will be more!!
No, there won't be a headline pointing out that 'local' Willie works in London for most of the working week and that he appears to have registered to vote in Hammersmith.
If Labour were sure of victory they would not be reduced to needing smear stories from Scotland's 'qualities'.
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#143
Wherever the GARL project was due to run from many people feel it was no more than a vanity project which we can no longer afford. I think in these staitened times most people understand this and are in support of this stance so Labour and the press are flogging a dead horse on this.
It was also a very idea unpopular in the area of Renfrewshire it was going to seriously disrupt.
The fact of the matter is that there is a comfotable bus from the centre of Glasgow every ten minutes for a ten minute journey to the airport and ten minute train journey about every ten minutes also from Glasgow Central Station (with a two minute connection to the airport) so I have no difficulty accepting that GARL was unneccesary.
As the Commomwealth Games are not to be held in the centre of Glasgow but out in the east end of the city I fail to see where GARL would have provided any great benefit here either.
I suspect the Glasgow Nort East by election campaign is having no effect from the GARL cancellation.
Queen Street serves the North and the East from Glasgow. The airport is to the west, close to the mainline out of Glasgow Central to the west coast
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143. patrickspens
"Am I not right in thinking that the station it was going from was Glasgow Central? Surely Queen Street would have been more sensible?"
More accurately it was a spur from Paisley Gilmour St (which links to Glasgow Central).
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Online Ed Here
Just had to have a look and yes, The Daily Record have used the smear in order to reprint every other smear against Kerr, from his religion to accusations of snobbery.
Note also the rhetoric of Willie Bain, overly aggressive and devoid of anything positive.
There's no question that the Unionist media have upped the anti - have Labour been spooked by something?
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A rather selfish contribution here...I hear tell of another board far far away where all you Nats meet. Got any use for a random Trotskyist and supporter of a Scottish (independent) Soviet? (i can guess how I can find it.)
I'd like to post more on Mr T's blog which I read all the time but I struggle with my concentration span (ADD) and when posts climb into the hundreds it's difficult to follow. I'll continue posting here when I can, however there are posters here I'd like to continue discussing matters with, perhaps in more detail. That's easier when there aren't 400 posts between the first and the last :)
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Official stats expose Labour scaremongering on Glasgow funding. After 74 years can anyone trust a word Labour says in this by-election?
Glasgow Labour blocked £6m investment in city roads & streets.
Minutes from Glasgow City Council show that the Labour administration voted against an SNP proposal for extra investment in Glasgow’s roads and street lighting amounting to £6 million in capital investment.
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154. fourstrikes
google quirkynats
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Ooh, got a nice, shiny new BBC ID. See who is first to guess who I am, without cheating and checking previous posts......
Anyway.......
#151 snecked
While I agree GARL being cancelled isn't the end of the world, and that many people were not even aware of it, the "ten minute trip" from central Glasgow to the airport is nothing of the sort. I work in the city centre and many people in my work use the airport frequently on business. I personally hate flying to use the train which is just as quick to get to London anyway.
On a good day, 15-20 minutes is the norm. But the Kingston Bridge is notorious for jams and accidents and there are frequent delays. A train link is generally simpler, since it would plant you at Central Station and you can get into a taxi if need be. And it is easier to get to the East end of Glasgow from Central than from the west.
I don't think Labour are flogging a dead horse here: they will point out to voters that the SNP is "anti-Glasgow", possibly highlighting that the Forth Bridge is still a live project. Playing Devil's advocate, you can argue that the Forth bridge has no benefit to Glasgow at all.
Labour - and others - use the East/West divide argument when everyone knows that the economy as a whole is reliant on the whole country.
149. At 9:58pm on 02 Nov 2009, InfrequentAllele2 wrote:
You can get from Central to Queen Street by train, but it is one helluva journey!
145. At 9:50pm on 02 Nov 2009, hadrianswall:
Better tell Linda Fabiani and co in East Kilbride how to run a campaign. Not once since 1996 when I return to EK has a single SNP activist knocked on a door. Labour did twice. If a party wants to get the message across use the doorsteps. OK, can be annoying and a few doorslams, but it gets the message out and can defeat the media. It also shows that the party is interested in the views of voters, rather than taking things for granted.
124. At 4:46pm on 02 Nov 2009, SchoolTieColours:
I agree, the Lib Dems are going to get slaughtered: both in the bye- and the general elections.
138. At 8:32pm on 02 Nov 2009, JRMacClure wrote:
I must admit being totally baffled by the "I've voted Labour for 55 years and they've never done anything for me so I'm voting for thema again" attitude of many people in that (and some other) constituencies. Mind boggling.
Ever considered that it took the SNP 55 years to get their message right?
132. At 6:56pm on 02 Nov 2009, dukess2008:
Welcome to the madhouse!
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154. fourstrikes
quirkynats isn't an exclusive group. All those interested in Scottish politics (but particularly those interested in exploring how we might operate as an independent country) are welcome.
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Well done BBC, you "BBC ID" is not exactly user friendly and bugged. Did someone use a PFI contractor?
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Brian
A good piece. When politics is decided in the proverbial smoke filled rooms we need political editors. It must be galling that the SNP is open and democratic, it leaves a political editor with little to do. Still on the basis of St Augustine's "Lord make me good but not yet.", you could explain why Labour, and then the Tories, oppose a referendum that could / would kill the SNP stone dead for 20 years. It's certainly a question that puzzles me. What was wrong with Wendy's "Bring it on!"?
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#140 Diabloandco
Wendy is a busted flush. Given the article in the Sunday press about Murphy and Purcell you have to believe that she is done - and we Dougy along with her.
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Geek alert!
Isn't Glenn Campbell wrong about the last non-Lab MP for Springburn being the ILP in 1922. The Tories (astonishingly) won it in 1934.
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147. U14094468
"Tom Harris now smearing David Kerr on his blog - Labour are worried about something. "
Yep! and it's not the issues.
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No complaints about Glenn Campbell's questioning of Kerr on Newsnicht. Kerr seemed do respond fine.
However, Glenn needs to be as sharp and interrupting when he interviews the Bane of Glasgow.
Glenn - can you operate as a real journalist?
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157. Neil_Small147
"138. At 8:32pm on 02 Nov 2009, JRMacClure wrote:
I must admit being totally baffled by the "I've voted Labour for 55 years and they've never done anything for me so I'm voting for thema again" attitude of many people in that (and some other) constituencies. Mind boggling.
Ever considered that it took the SNP 55 years to get their message right?"
Ok, it took 54 years to get it right--so what explained the PREVIOUS 54 years?
And this isn't confined to Glasgow. My father was what was in our part of the world known as a "Yeller Dog Democrat" (yellow in the South) who would sooner vote for an old yeller Dog than a Republican. On the other hand, our part of the country wasn't necessarily impoverished.
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164. oldnat
What? No glencampbelly coverage?
Did he touch on the birthplace issue by the way? That should be easily answered but it does need to be.
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Hey :)
I'm a wee bit curious as to whether the nationalists here would "settle" for a devolution max/independence lite refurendum that would be a further stepping stone to full independence - but in another 10-20 years?
i.e. have a three-way refurendum where the outcome is likely to be a middle-road more devolution (the "devolution max" of the snp national conversation) stopping short of full independence, rather than having an "independence or nothing" poll if independence would likely fail (emphasis on if!)?
Would the better outcome for Scotland of more autonomy in the short term outweigh the benefits of (possibly) getting independence sooner with the status quo.
BTW I'm inclided to be a nationalist and would vote independence unless someone gave me a very good reason not to. I also think "official" uk federalism is silly, unless it means "independence lite" where Scotland is independent de facto but not de jure (at first). Kinda like what happened in Ireland except without partition and without a nasty snp civil war.
Apologies for any convoluted grammer - I'm on nightshift, cant think straight! And I'm aware that most folks will know more about Irish history than me and am happy to be corrected :)
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157. Neil_Small147
Oh, I misread what you said, sorry. Well, in that case they still don't have it right. Some people are just plain stubborn. I think I referred to my father in an earlier post and he was a FINE example of mule-headedness. ;-)
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Hello! Is this the new trendy site?.
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166. JRMacClure
Oh the birthplace was brought up. Kerr explained that while his Mum lived in Dennistoun, the maternity hospital was actually outwith the Glasgow NE constituency!
I look forward to Campbell quizzing Bain on "living in the constituency" when he actually lives and works in London, but comes home to Mammy 4(?) nights a week.
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167. RyogaHibiki
I think most of us would accept a model in which Scotland had effective independence, and allow the Unionists to still have the symbols - easy to move from that to as much Independence as is possible in the EU. For those that find that unacceptable, there is always the Free Scotland Party - ideologically linked to UKIP.
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169. derekbarker
Hi derek. Nice to have you back. Yes the Beeb seems to have decided that your multiple personalities were simply too confusing. :-)
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#172 oldnat
Why! thank-you oldnat. Multiple personalities? Is this a new line of distraction.
A bit like multiple birth places? apart from that, I thought Kerr did reasonable.
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#167
You're on the right track.
"Federalism" is a delaying tactic and has all the problems of our present asymmetric devolution with none of the benefits of a clean break and full power
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#171 Oldnat
Would it be something worth striving towards? Though possibly not openly (i.e. ask for independence to get more autonomy). From (highly scientifically, of course) chatting to folks I think 3 years may be a bit too quick to convince a majority to go for full independence.
Is putting independence onto the horizon an ideological step too far?
e.g. If you were leading an SNP majority government in 2011 would you go for a 2- or 3-option refurendum if all the private and public polls said 40% support for independence, 45% against, 70% for devolution max?
And say in devolution max you got lib-dem, some labour and some media (and possibly even DeantheTory's!) support for the middle road in the campaigning as opposed to being SNP vs the rest.
I'm curious hear all folks' views btw, not just oldnat :)
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168. At 11:41pm on 02 Nov 2009, JRMacClure wrote:
157. Neil_Small147
Oh, I misread what you said, sorry. Well, in that case they still don't have it right. Some people are just plain stubborn. I think I referred to my father in an earlier post and he was a FINE example of mule-headedness. ;-)
I can agree. My grandparents always voted Labour, because they were working class. But you could argue that until Blair turned up, Labour was distinct from the Conservatives.
I think the SNPs problem for the previous fifty odd years was that it was "independence or nothing". Devolution actually give them the opportunity to get into power and prove what they are capable of.
I still don't think a straight jump to independence would attract enough voters yet. The SNP need to develop more trust in voters. Assuming they gain a working majority in Holyrood next election time then they can prove it. I don't understand this rush to independence whatever the consequences, which some people support. I read there are rumours that the referendum may be put back (was it on here??). I believe a referendum in 2012 would be more beneficial to the SNP than 2010. Megrahi forgotten, GARL forgotten, Labour in opposition, and a Tory government in power. What is 2 years to wait?
Labour is deeply unpopular right now, and many people are voting SNP not because they want independence but because they want a change of government. No, I can't provide any hard evidence, but I would suggest it is a fair assumption: why do you think Labour won so many "safe" Tory seats in 1997?
171. At 11:56pm on 02 Nov 2009, oldnat:
Are you suggesting federalism? That might be acceptable to more people than either the union or full independence. After all, Scotland could keep most of its money but still have the safety net of certain shared resources (ie armed forces etc). Size of population would not come into the equation in my opinion. I for one would accept a federal solution.
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I am not sure why the parties wanted to get into the "I was born in the constituency" issue. Why is that so great a prerequisite? There are hundreds of MPs who have been parachuted into constituencies so it hasn't been a bone of contention for them apparently. I think both Labour and the SNP they have got themselves into a maze over this and its now leading to questions over the honesty of the candidates.
I thought Kerr's reply on the issue was quite rational. I was born in a hospital 30 miles away from the village where I was raised. It's the way you were brought up that moulds character and informs you, not necessarily where you were born. It must have been about half of Kerr's interview time taken up with the issue when he could have been covering more important things.
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175. RyogaHibiki and Neil Small
I'm not suggesting federalism. I supported that in my teens, but I grew up.
However, I recognise that the road to Independence is a journey that has many stops. My preference is for a Scotland which is part of the EU (though like many Europeans, I'd like to see its structures reformed).
Others would stop earlier or later on that journey.
I'd love to see a real debate on federalism for the UK. As other posters have said, the dominance of England within such a structure would probably persuade most Scots that it wasn't a good option. A multi option referendum on Scotland's place within UK/Europe would be good.
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176. Neil_Small147
Truthfully, I have always felt that a referendum in or about 2012 was much more likely. Because of their core voters (and because it really is what the SNP believes in), the SNP aren't going to "put it off" but they are willing to accept defeat. It shows where everyone stands, puts LibDems on the back foot for elections, and gives the SNP a chance to get more MSPs in Holyrood.
From an outsider's viewpoint, enough votes for a referendum looks likely after the Holyrood election. That doesn't mean "they don't want one sooner" as some new people will tell you. That has always looked like the math of the situation.
Anyone who looks at polls on independence can easily dismiss the "independence can't win" argument. I have never seen a poll that didn't show enough undecided to take independence over the top. But it will be a hard fight whenever it happens.
An immediate win for independence would please a lot of people and I have NO doubt that Scotland would do great. But another intermediate step such as greatly enhanced Holyrood powers might be the outcome, of course. Anyone who thinks that will be the end of the matter doesn't know some nationalists who make my stubborn father look malleable. ;-)
If that happened, it could take a while--perhaps a decade or two. In the meantime, I think Scots would gain much needed confidence. I see SO many Scots, even highly educated ones, who really still don't think that Scotland is capable of managing its own affairs.
It makes me sad. It really does to see such a capable people convinced of their own inherent inferiority.
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#178
I agree that actual USA or Germany-style federalism with one state being 10-times the size of others is plain silly. Nor do I think England has the inclination to break up into multiple small states, as some have suggested (not sure if on this blog, but I've seen it mooted on others).
I'm not so sure that "federalism" isn't a handy label for a Scotland that is economically and culturally independent but hasn't declared itself "properly" independent yet.
I think a prerequisate for any of this "federalism" would have to be the right of the Scottish Parliament to fully secede without asking permission from Westminster (with a mandate from a refurendum).
Dont know if I'd want any Scottish MPs at Westminster anyway. What would be their purpose? Make any "reserved" decisions that would affect Scotland (e.g. Trident, war) conditional on the assent of the Scottish Parliament.
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178 RyogaHibiki
"Make any "reserved" decisions that would affect Scotland (e.g. Trident, war) conditional on the assent of the Scottish Parliament."
Wow! I don't think I've ever seen that spelled out before. That would be quite something.
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Whoops - that should have been directed to 180! I must have been drinking West coast wine.
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180. RyogaHibiki
"Make any "reserved" decisions that would affect Scotland (e.g. Trident, war) conditional on the assent of the Scottish Parliament."
Yes. That's the only way that a Federal Parliament of the UK could work. Otherwise its simply the English Parliament making the decisions,
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#175 RyogaHibiki
Youare describing what may happen not what many of us campaign for. We are aware that the the acquiring of independence may take a couple of steps but that is not our preference. We would seek to persaude a majority of Scots that a clean break is the best option and I would judge we have a fair chance of doing so. We haven't started an independence campaign as yet and in my judgement we will do so when the time is right. At themoment we are in a medai driven firestorm against the SNP. This looses its power inevitably, particularly as much of it is patent nonsense and this becomes obvious and then offensive to thinking people. Where the "opinion formers" go the rest eventually follow.
If however we ever accept that independence will come in two steps and start campaigning on that basis those two steps expand to become three steps or more. As soon as you concede a point you are pushed further back. That's the nature of politics. The boat is pushed out as far as it can go at all times and concessions are achieved as a result of that.
We got the devoltion we now have because we campaigned for independence. Had we settled for devolution as a "first step" we would have got a lot less.
I am confident that when the cards are on the table there will be enough Scots with enough intellect,enough courage and enough ambition to outnumber the confused and timid cringers.
There is a time for everything. That is the critical factor.
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182. patrickspens
Hey, so have I! Nice Cabernet here. :-)
And listening to music when I should be working. Shhhh. Don't tell my agent.
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184. sneckedagain
Very good point.
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Actually JR I was nodding in your direction, but have to tell the truth! I was actually imbibing Ochentoshan Lowland Single Malt labeled as McLelland's Lowland here in the US - but for half the price. Same stuff - different label. But it's a secret - don't tell anyone else.
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#184 snackedagain
I like that answer :)
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It's been mentioned before, but I want to bring it up again.
BBC has avoided THIS story like the plague!
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/corporate-sme/dana-and-faroe-shares-rise-after-oil-and-gas-find-west-of-shetland-1.926299
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187. patrickspens
"Ochentoshan Lowland Single Malt "
I'll have to give it a try. But we'll keep it a secret. =)
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The English Tories are really quite funny. Apparently South West Norfolk selected a candidate who had an affair a few years back (which was in the public domain).
Now they are going to deselect her because she didn't tell them that she had done naughty things with a Tory MP.
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fourstrikes
Haven't seen you on quirkynats yet. Use the same username so we have consistency.
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191. oldnat
I read about that. Isn't that bizarre?
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haha! I rarely write when I'm tight but occasionally it's the only thing to do. ;-)
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It appears that Cammie has come to a decision on the EU for the election. In my opinion it is the only option he had, to hold his party together.
Cameron on brink of dropping referendum promise over Lisbon treaty.
The Conservative leader is preparing to set out a fresh stance on Europe that will involve promising in his election manifesto to “repatriate” certain key powers from Brussels.
He will also pledge to write into law that no British government will ever again be able to push through a European treaty without a referendum.
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I have just spotted this in the Catholic Herald, Britain’s leading catholic newspaper. I am not catholic so I don’t know what to make of it. Is it a wind up or what?
’New Labour sees the Church as a rival’.
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196. Roll_On_2010
Interesting. I don't understand religion in your part of the world--a country where the monarch is still by law is head of a church and can't be Catholic.
I have no idea what that is getting at. He seems to be saying that he's not really a CATHOLIC Catholic, only sort of Catholic. Is that like the Scottish Cringe? And yet he blogs under the name of a Catholic restorationist--
*shrug* Beats me.
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And I wasn't sure where the "Labour sees the Church as a rival" came from but he certainly isn't a friend to Labour. Don't know that it means anything about the Church. I still think of England as a very Protestant place, but I never go there either so that's pure prejudice on my part. lol
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# 135 oldnat
This blog is home to a bunch of eccentrics who like politics - and argument!
Surely not.
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# 177 hamish42
I don't think that anyone on this blog is complaining about where someone was born or even where they live. That really doesn't have a lot to do whether that person is going to be a good political representative for that particular constituency. I think what bothers us is that one of the contestants, for the by-election, bragged about where he/she lived which seems to have been open to interpretation. (I have to be careful here as the mods, quite rightly, are wary of using certain words)
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Nice to see that Derek has made a return, for a little while.
By the way, has anyone heard anything of Dean? Have those nasty students done something to him?
As far as fourstrikes is concerned I would love to indulge in some left wing conversations with you. I've said before that communism is a wonderful idea, if it was possible to keep the human factor out of it.
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Online Ed Here
Willie Bain interviewed on Good Morning Scotland, sadly due to a bad reception I was unable to hear the first two minutes clearly but understand that Bain spoke of knife crime and GARL and being the ‘local man’ during this period.
I will have to listen again on iplayer to discover whether he was asked about the response from Starthclydes Chief Inspector who said automatic jail would was unworkable and would lead to meltdown or what he would cut in place of GARL. I also don’t know if the fact that Bain lives and works over half the working week in London was raised or if he was given the chance to deny registering to vote in Hammersmith [an acceptable question given Glenn Campbell bringing up the birthplace smear with david Kerr].
I did catch the interview from the point where Bain insists that his priority in this campaign has been jobs – I waited for the interviewer to ask about the ‘Ripping Off Glasgow’ circus and ask Bain to justify it but incredibly he didn’t. I also expected a question on cuts from Westminster but again, quite amazingly nothing - nor was there anything about the 'U' turn by Labour on accelarated capital funding for Scotland something Bain refused to support in the early part of the campaign, did he now support it?
Bain was able to ramble on a bit nebulously talking about getting people back to work. The only time an awakward question was asked came when the previous MP for the area Michael Martin and expenses was raised. Bain did the proverbial ‘Rabbit in the headlights’ thing again and was unable to respond for around three seconds as he seemed to search for a scripted response.
Perhaps due to my not catching the first two minutes, but my impression was that the interview seemed rushed and over very quickly.
First two minutes notwithstanding [I’ll listen again] Bain was not damaged by the interview simply because he couldn’t have been – there were no serious questions asked.
I remarked two weeks ago if we were about to see a by-election campaign where the media would avoid asking the Labour candidate any serious questions about the three core areas of his campaign.
Local man, knife crime and Rip Off – thus far only Bernard Ponsonby has asked genuinely difficult questions of Bain who was found wanting.
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200. gedguy2
I think someone mentioned that he had been posting somewhere else so I assume the nasty nationalists didn't do him any serious harm.
The whole thing with where people are born or live reminds me of a few years ago I needed a new copy of my own birth certificate for a passport and it took a couple of tries because I was mistaken about which county I was born in. The town where I was born happened to be half in one and half in another. I apparently would have been in real trouble in politics.
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202. U14094468
Has it ever been any different? This seems to be the invariable tack. I must say I am amazed at the degree of success of the SNP considering the blatant bias of the media.
I can't even imagine what Scottish politics would be like with a level playing field.
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# 203 JRMacClure
The town where I was born happened to be half in one and half in another.
I have a slightly similar problem, but the town where I was born was half in one country and half in another; I was born in West Berlin. ;-)
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# 204 JRMacClure
Has it ever been any different?
And not likely to change while we are part of the Union.
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Re. the Glasgow NE by-election, SNP and Labour head the letter box count with three apiece (and they did a bit of doorstep polling), Sheridan and Smeato one each, Libdems nothing (!). Slightly surprisingly the Cons seem to be putting a fair amount into their paper campaigning (2), though they don't seem to want to engage on the doorstep; probably wisely as a refusal often offends. It'd be extremely interesting to know what Labour and SNPs doorstep polls are telling them.
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# 207 dukess2008
Welcome to the madhouse.
What is the word on the street? Are the majority of Labour activists Scottish or has their been an increase of non-Scottish Labour activists brought in to help?
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#202 Online Ed
I listened as well this morning and mentally have bumped Gary Robertson a few points up in the "Search for a Northern British Broadcasting Corporation Newsroom Backbone". I don't think that he gave Bain exactly an easy time, starting with a question that the main plank of Bain's campaign was on Reserved Issues and was he therefore saying that the 2 MSPs that cover GNE were ineffectual. He didn't let Bain off with this one either and kept coming back to it.
Full marks for trying. Guessing he'll be off to Room 101 for a spell of Re-Education though.
Bain came across as pretty poor IMHO.
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@209 Chiefy1724 wrote "Guessing he'll be off to Room 101 for a spell of Re-Education though."
Arrghh, tied to a chair and forced to watch footage of Helen Liddle, Pauline MacNeil and Margaret Curran on a giant plasma screen while Glen slaps him about the head with a rubber kipper to a background of Leonard Cohen's "repent".
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BBC News 24 giving a forum to Jack Maconnell a few minutes ago. Allowing him to spout his nonsense. Balanced reporting? Not!
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#209 Chiefy1724
I don't listen to politicians as a rule, I'm a believer in "How can you tell if a politician's lying? If he opens his mouth.". However I had a look at the STV Ponsonby interview and Bain's body language was trapped rabbit and he didn't believe the answers he was giving. Not the sort of person you want making laws for us.
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To my huge delight the Herald carries the non story about the precise geographical location of his mother when the SNP candidate exited her womb by boldly headlining it as a question for the " Labour candidate".
The only real question is this. Is the Labour Party in Scotland so absolutely bereft of judgement and of political intention that it seeks to hang the result of a critical by election on insisting that its candidate lives in the constituency when, in any sensible interpretation of that statement, he patently does not?
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#213 sneckedagain
I'm all for this place of birth nonsense. We can palm off responsibility for the "second most famous fifer" onto Glasgow. 8-)
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hi, i've been reading the blogs for ages,in fact they have kept me sane{i hope} in my recovery,and now looking
forward to my twopence worth, its like i know all of you
so well,politics are my interest,so here goes with my first post
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Hello Mairi, from a nearly as new boy.
"208. gedguy2 wrote:
# 207 dukess2008
What is the word on the street? Are the majority of Labour activists Scottish or has their been an increase of non-Scottish Labour activists brought in to help?"
Gedguy, it's a bit difficult getting a feeling for Glasgow NE as it's quite geographically fragmented, particularly with the M8 driving through it. I live in Dennistoun but I guess the sharp end will be in places like Springburn, Possil and Riddrie. Most of the activists of all parties are young which is hopefully encouraging. The Labour doorsteper I had was elderly, English and wearing a red cagoul & knitted hat, an old party trouper I assume.
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#215 mairi
Hi and welcome, though if you think this lot have kept you sane then you really ought to join derek at Carstairs. 8-)
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#209 Chiefy1724
"I listened as well this morning and mentally have bumped Gary Robertson a few points ..."
Would you remember the rough time of the interview? Wading through 3 hrs of GMS on the iPlayer is not my idea of fun.
"Guessing he'll be off to Room 101 for a spell of Re-Education though."
LOL, but anyone not having a copy of Nineteen eighty-four or Orwell's other works should note that most of them are now available in HTML from Project Gutenberg Australia.
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many thanks for the wecome,glad someone is almost as new as me,no intentions of going to carstairs now,but cant wait for next GE AND increasing our tally of ministers to
further our cause,must go now ttfn.
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219. mairi macleod
And welcome from one of the older oldstagers!
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#218 Brownedov
Time, erm.....possibly between the 7-30 news and about 7-45. Could be just the pre-side of the 7-30 but definitely after Thought for the Day.
Difficult to say as I normally have GMS in one ear and Mrs Chiefy in the other on the commute in....
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hello ondnat,many a fine has been played on an old fiddle
besides age is only a number as is usual some bigger than
others,gosh missed the tune out,]but you know the saying,
besides i'm not too young a nat myself,but just as loyal.
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#222 mairi
LOL And her first political post is an attack on Kenny's sentencing policy, many a fine has been payed on an old fiddle.
Jail the lot of them! [With appologies to Willie T-bone] 8-)
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#221 Chiefy1724
Many thanks. Listening to it now and will respond in full on the new thread.
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