Anything to declare?
Are they don't knows? Or won't say? Or couldnae care less?
Those who have yet to declare their allegiance in the Glasgow North East by-election could determine the outcome. If they choose.
Out on the stump with the major parties today, most privately reckon Labour is still clearly in the lead, with polling due on Thursday.
The SNP analysis is that they have recorded a swing in their direction in the past day or so - and could magnify that trend before polling.
The key could lie in differential turnout: can the challengers motivate supporters more than the incumbents?
Plus the issue of those who have yet to state a preference to canvassers.
One SNP insider described it to me thus. Those who won't declare: have they genuinely yet to make up their minds - and are thus open to persuasion?
Or are they habitual Labour voters reluctant, for whatever reason, to state this to Nationalist canvassers?
Or will they absent themselves from the polling stations on Thursday?
I'm 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~20~RS~)
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Online Ed Here
Well, there we have it - definitive analysis it isn't, but at least Brian has finally acknowledged the by-election.
Was it worth waiting for?
No.
A few comments from the previous blog will have to be reproduced here as a result of this compeltely worthless blog.
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Brian
That's the problem with all these polls. There are always more people willing to say they support X, Y or Z than ever go to the polls for them. Democracy doesn't work if the people don't want it.
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So far the only people to have bothered to come to my door have been Labour canvassers.
I listened to them and told them why as yet Labour haven't convinced me to vote for them.
However, that doesn't mean the SNP are going to convince me to vote for them.
I would like to vote for an independent, sadly, those on offer are a dissappointing lot.
Strangely, I have seen the SNP out on Duke Street on several occasions, usually with Nicola Sturgeon in tow.
They appear to be there while the camera's on them and then minutes later they are gone.
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From the other threas - The Daily Record podcast with the candidates is now online.
"The Glasgow North-East by-election candidates join Daily Record political editor Magnus Gardham for a round table debate as polling day draws close. Willie Bain, Ruth Davidson, David Kerr, Eileen Baxendale and Tommy Sheridan answer the questions set by the readers of the Daily Record." Scroll down the page to listen:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk
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Should we thank the heavens that the BBC's political editor in Scotland has decided to produce an article on his blog? I don't think so, my grandson could have written a more in depth analysis of the Glasgow NE by election than this poor attempt, and he is only nine years of age. It looks, to me, Brian, that you were determined not to have a say and this piece was simply the least you thought that you could get away with. I wonder why. There can be a few reasons for this but I suspect that there may only be two of worth. One: You didn't want to leave yourself too open to glencampbelliness if you had to do an in depth piece, or Two: It might look good in the future if you can say that you did a piece, but kept out of the fray. I'm disappointed, Brian...3 out of 10.
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In the Euro election vote breakdown by constituency, Springburn/Glasgow North was one of only a handful of places in Scotland where Labour came first. So they are the bookies' favourites for a reason.
The charming fiscal adventures of Baron Martin of Springburn and Port Dundas might well have had some impact on the voters who won't declare...my betting is that turnout will be very low, as many 'traditional Labour voters' stay home and vote for a cup of tea instead.
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I switched on my computer to find Brian smiling enigmatically above ‘The latest from the by-election campaign trail’. I gave a couple of silent cheers and opened the latest ‘Blether’.
What a let down. Brian, did you dash this non-story off between two sips of coffee?
Most of your ‘Blethers’ are well written and erudite but this one was – well not worth the yellow Post-it appears to have been written on.
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afternoon, the fact that amongst others the BBC in Scotland chose not to talk about this bi-election until 4 days out and the trebling of postal vote requests tells it own story.
Sid
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# 4 raisethegame
I've just listened to the podcast, thanks for the link.
I was very impressed by Tommy Sheridan, I liked that fact that he took no prisoners. He came out of that in the lead with David Kerr and Ruth Davidson a close second, Willie Bain third and Eileen Baxandale last. I liked the bit at the end where Tommy Sheridan pointed out that under the lib/Lab administration Glasgow had received less per head than any other council in Scotland. Just goes to show the real parties which had been ripping off Glasgow.
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#4 .......thanks for the Daily Record link.... It was very interesting.
For my money David Kerr beat Willy Bain hands down but the star was Tommy Sheridan ....... Love him or hate him his views seem to me to much closer to those of the SNP than of Labour and it might well turn out that he could have a lot of influence on the end result.
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I believe it shall be a Labour-win with a swing to the SNP, I believe also that Labour shall win by 1000-2000 votes. It's disappointing but not suprising considering that this is typical Labour heartlands.
If GARL was not cancelled (it's not cancelled yet) but if it was I believe that the SNP would have managed to make a stronger gain in this part of Scotland. However I am curious to listen to the Labour candidates method of ensuring GARL does reach Glasgow... I don't believe it's acceptable to shoot down another parties policy without properly suggesting an alternative, but as usual some people will believe anything...
I wonder how many have mentioned to Willie that it was his party that has cut services in Scotland which resulted in the nationalists withdrawing the GARL funding...
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# 7 tullibardine
I would also like to add that Brian's headline: 'Anything to declare?', in relation to his article, would have to be a resounding 'NO'!
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I thought the Daily Record man gave all the candidates a fair crack of the whip which goes against my earlier concerns. Not sure how Bain can get away with his mealy-mouthed retorts though. The Labour Party caught with their fingers in the till yet still saying 'it wisny me honest!'
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If i handed in a piece of work this lacking of effort to my boss i'd be getting a swift kick up the backside. This is a poor effort, very poor indeed.
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4. raisethegame
Cheers for link. Tommy won that hands down.
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What about the homeless ducks?
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#4 raisethegame
Many thanks for the link to the Daily Record debate - well worth a listen. Baxendale was lightweight again, apart from her revelation that she's a Social Democrat rather than a Liberal one - no wonder she's against the referendum!
The inclusion of Sheridan made for a proper debate against the two Tweedles, who seemed to disagree on remarkably little - not even on Barnett consequentials.
Gardham stepped in a coupled of times to spare unionist blushes, but overall was pretty reasonable as moderator.
#9 gedguy2
I agree entirely with your order: Sheridan, Kerr/Davidson, Bain, Baxendale
#10 Wee-Scamp
Spot on re Sheridan. As you say, "Love him or hate him his views seem to me to much closer to those of the SNP than of Labour".
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10. Wee-Scamp
"Tommy Sheridan"
My question was why is he not IN the SNP? Did I read somewhere that he was courted by Labour? No wonder he didn't end up running on their ticket.
I had to chuckle. Was it my imagination that he said he would campaign PRO-independence or were my ears playing tricks on me? He came across less inarticulate this time than in the past when I heard him, by the way.
Not sure about the love/hate thing but I was amused.
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5. gedguy2
3 out of 10 is excessively generous.
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Can't remember where I first so this comment but it seems appropriate here - " Incredibly, they kept electing Labour and, when faced with alternatives, preferred to cling to the certainty of incompetence rather than reach for the uncertainty of change. This is what powerlessness does to people"
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The full PDF tables of the new TNS poll are now available here. They confirm that polling was carried out between 28 October and 3 November.
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"Searching my veins for Scottish blood"
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2009/11/09/searching-my-veins-for-scottish-blood/
Well at least one media person loves us!
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Still nothing about where bain of glasgow actually lives or how much the labour MPS have scammed. What a surpise that this blog tells us nothing.
I think labour will hold this seat. However anything less than a 5000 majority will be a disaster for labour.
Do you think the headline on Friday will be :
Its the BBC wot won it for labour !
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23. astonishedII
"Do you think the headline on Friday will be :
Its the BBC wot won it for labour !"
Or bonuses for BBC Scotland staff!
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Come on Brian and the rest of you, after the Glenrothes farce, we are quite sure that the dead will vote in Glasgow North East.
With the figures already suggesting that the postal vote has increased by 20% on all previous elections, what is the big money on that the papers will be cremated within 48 hours “all a big mistake” “A big boy did it and ran away”
The Electrical Commission is already filled with placemen; they did not manage to do anything in Glenrothes do you really believe that they will be in attendance at the election on Thursday never mind the count, no chance.
Remember Gordon Brown charged all in the party in Scotland to make sure that this by-election goes the same way as Glenrothes.
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Are they don't knows? Or won't say? Or couldnae care less?
Are you? Do you, Brian?
("couldnae care less?" - not very complimentary. Like Foulkes said, these voters are "an underclass"?)
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At least Brian is not as desperate as Angus McLeod in The Time's squealing that the BNP were going to come third in Glasgow NE and steal the seat from poor Willie..........
The Herald survey is most interesting for the 43% that refused to state a preference for a Westminster Party or declared they would not vote. The usual subjects are jumping around using this as evidence for Wee Eck and the SNP's honeymoon being over. Yet as regards to Holyrood in 2011 the poll shows the SNP ahead in both the constituency and list vote by a good margin. It does not make good reading for the Tories as they seek to take power at Westminster.
One interpretation could be the Scots increasingly see less importance in Westminster than they do in Holyrood.
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Lets just hope that the voters vote for what they believe in. If they believe in another 50 years of labour doing little for Scotland then vote for labour, if they believe in change and someone standing up for their area and Scotland as a whole then vote SNP.
Personally I hope the SNP win as I have grown up seeing what labour has promised Scotland, delivered little then gave in everytime London has come calling. Whether you agree with the Union or not surely we are better represented by a party that has Scotland at it's heart.
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18. At 5:35pm on 09 Nov 2009, JRMacClure wrote:
10. Wee-Scamp
"Tommy Sheridan"
My question was why is he not IN the SNP? Did I read somewhere that he was courted by Labour? No wonder he didn't end up running on their ticket.
The last person the SNP need is Tommy Sheridan. He is an effective speaker but his politics are far too radical for the SNP. A bit like courting George Galloway.
To be honest with the GE next year this bye-election is only of important if there is a high turnout with either Labour losing it or the SNP losing support (unlikely).
I expect a low key response from Salmond unless of course the SNP do win the seat, which will cause a major ruckus in Labour.
And what are your views on this proposal?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8350550.stm
And this one?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8350820.stm
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Online Ed Here
9. At 4:27pm on 09 Nov 2009, gedguy2 wrote:
# 4 raisethegame
I've just listened to the podcast, thanks for the link.
I was very impressed by Tommy Sheridan, I liked that fact that he took no prisoners. He came out of that in the lead with David Kerr and Ruth Davidson a close second, Willie Bain third and Eileen Baxandale last.
Sheridan, like Smeaton are the flies in the ointment here - they could do untold damage to the Labour vote.
It's really an intriguing by-election when you look at it. The bizarre Labour campaign ready to collapse under any serious scrutiny and the apparent lack of media interest in anything save for Kerr smear stories and comments about GARL.
It's as though serious journalism will endanger Labour prospects, so they've simply refused to employ any.
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29. Neil_Small147
That article was changed from the ORIGINAL version which pointed out that Labour is pro-trust schools in England but opposed them in Scotland. I *think* they added that comment about the SNP saying that they would oppose the way trust schools are run in England also.
I was quite surprised at reading the revised version.
Whether trust schools are a good idea for Scotland, ask Oldnat. He's the educator in our midst. :-)
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30. U14094468
I have to agree on all points. Look at this blog. Could there possibly be more NOTHING coverage than Mr. Taylor's comments? They are obviously afraid to open their mouths because if they do they hurt Labour.
The issue with the most coverage has been what hospital David Kerr was born at! That tells you something!
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Oops. My bad, of course, it was Smeaton who was courted by Labour. Silly me.
I was quite surprised as who well Tommy Sheridan did. He hadn't impressed me previously, but did very well. What can you say about the Labour muppet who NEVER impresses. Does anyone actually know ANYTHING about this man? Never saw such an anonymous political candidate for such a high office.
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Quite interesting to read the Betfair Blog "Labour trade at just 1.25 to land the Glasgow-East by-election but a cocktail of factors make those odds look uncomfortably tight". It finishes with this:
"Twice already in this parliament, short-odds Labour backers have got their fingers badly burnt in by-elections. They were matched well below the current 1.25 quote for Glasgow East, and previously Labour had lost Dunfermline and West Fife to the Lib Dems having traded at 1.01 in-running. Don't make the same mistake; this one is no certainty either."
I'd imagine the mods wouldn't like it if I put in the link!
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The thing that strikes you most about the candidates is just how sadly lacking in political talent Scotland has become.Not one of the candidates looks to have anything to offer apart from a desire to find an easy well paid number for him or herself.They all appear to be without any real political belief, coviction or desire to serve the electorate. What's new?
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35. kaybraes
Not all of them struck me that way at all. I thought both Sheridan and Kerr made a good impression. But it's always a matter of opinion.
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Online Ed Here
35. At 7:18pm on 09 Nov 2009, kaybraes wrote:
The thing that strikes you most about the candidates is just how sadly lacking in political talent Scotland has become.Not one of the candidates looks to have anything to offer apart from a desire to find an easy well paid number for him or herself.They all appear to be without any real political belief, coviction or desire to serve the electorate. What's new?
Find a well paid number? Two of the candidates have already said they will not pocket the full wage. One of the candidates is in politics to rid Scotland of the corrupt Westminster gravy train.
Both Kerr and Sheridan openly advocate independence for Scotland.
There is indeed political talent emanating from Scotland, both the SNP candidate and the Tory candidate have impressed in this campaign.
I think you have been confused by a lack of real scrutiny from the media which has allowed a stale Labour journeyman like Bain to become favourite to win a seat for a constituency badly served by the previous incumbent - who now finds himself in the Lords.
One thing not noticed by anyone is Bain's clear short term campaign. In six months [should he win] Bain will face questions over his lack of progress.
Finally, I'm very impressed by Kerr's use of the independence argument in this campaign - it focuses the minds.
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35. kaybraes
I completely agree. No new thinking or leaders in the making on this list.
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37. U14094468
"Find a well paid number? Two of the candidates have already said they will not pocket the full wage. One of the candidates is in politics to rid Scotland of the corrupt Westminster gravy train."
That is a VERY good point that is being totally ignored.
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I saw this on Guido's Blog. (A subtitle on Guido's news video):
"UN election monitors pull out of "too dangerous" Glasgow NE by-election."
Is this a wind up?
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#37
Indeed.
In six months the Labour Party will be fighting losing battles all over Scotland and will be completely incapable of flooding the constituency with imported workers or shielding their candidate in Glasgow North East from the full rigours of a proper parliamentary campaign.
And in six months the SNP,if it has any sense, will have established firmly with the voters in that constituency that they have been deceived and lied to.
And if we don't win on Thursday we should surely win it next year.
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My response from the previous thread:
596. handclapping
"#591 JR
Sorry, it's your end that the dog chewed. Let's say Holyrood has less powers than the Springfield Town Meeting and you want the SNP concentrating on it? In fact it would probably be good for the SNP to loose control of Holyrood. We'd soon see how good for Scotland the unionists are; that may be one of the plays Wee Eck has in his book for when the Referendum Bill goes pear shaped.
If you have looked at the question that has to be put in the referendum, then you will see just how unimportant Holyrood is. The SNP have shown that Scots can govern themselves, they're not too stupid. There are dozens of examples of independent states of 5 million or less, so we are not too wee. The battle is now on are we too poor? The answer lies at Westminster not Holyrood.
If the SNP is for the good of Scotland then they have to make a good showing at the GE. The Torys will be the British Government again and Labour has got form on this. The efforts of their feeble fifty against Mrs T where they did turf all to stand up for Scotland against the rape of our oil and the destruction of the livelihoods of so many Scots are something that should never be forgiven and never allowed to happen again.
So is it you that is reading the situation right? 8-)"
So you're giving up on a referendum on indpendence, I take it.
Because you sure as heck will NEVER get that through Westminster. You won't get a well-functioning Scottish government at Holyrood by electing people to Westminster.
If what you want is independence, it most certainly does NOT lie at Westminster.
If "how good for Scotland the unionists are" at Holyrood OR Westminster would have brought about independence, you'd already BE independent. That is the truth. Losing Holyrood would only guarantee that Scotland would NEVER vote on a referendum.
If that's what you want then lose Holyrood.
As for Westminster--it still doesn't matter if the issue is independence. If the issue is ONLY trying to keep from getting raped by a Tory government--I don't think 20 MPs is going to do it but you might as well try.
So are you sure that you are reading the situation right? ;-)
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40. hamish42
Is that a joke?
Like many Americans, sometimes British humor goes right over my head.
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Online Ed Here
Looks like the money is now being lumped on Labour, they are around 1/4 now.
Here is a Herald podcast involving the four main parties:
Click Here
Look out for Willie Bain refusing to take the opportunity to promote his knife crime policy first time around. Then listen as he states clearly that this is a devolved issue when asked if Gordon Brown supports it.
Why isn't Willie standing for Holyrood?
Kerr has started using every opportunity to point out the mess Labour have made of the economy and pointing out that the cuts that led to GARL being cancelled were the fault of London Labour.
These podcasts from both The Record (amazingly) and The Herald have between them shed more light than all of the BBC's coverage put together.
What a contest this could have been had the state broadcaster and indeed the press treated the campaign and the public with a degree of respective balance and respect.
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41. sneckedagain
Let me emphasize that my belief that Holyrood is more important to Scotland than Westminster doesn't mean I think the GE should be ignored.
But everyone knows that the SNP does not have unlimited resources (for which read money) so decisions have to be made and priorities set.
The attitude that Westminster is more important than Holyrood is, I think, a holdover from the belief that Britain is more important than Scotland. Well, it is if you stay in the union. So that is the question that must be answered. What is the real goal?
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MPs are showing contempt in the court of public opinion
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#44
I doubt if there is any large cash bets being made.
The 1/4 merely means that the bookmakers have read and accepted the opinion poll released today and feel confident enough to offer more generous odds on the SNP which at 11/4 now are probably worth a little tickle, though I might wait to see if I can get 3/1.
I would say that 11/8 the Tory to finish third looks like a good bet.
Pity they are not offering odds on the Libdem not to save her deposit or in fact "Smeato" similarly bombing
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Has anyone noticed the locations of the proposed new nuclear power stations for England and Wales? The only two "new" locations are in the North west.
Any comments?
John
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47. sneckedagain
Poor LibDems. I actually feel rather sorry for what they're about to get as the Scots prepare to punish their cowardice.
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The business about trust schools is alarming. As a member of the teaching profession in Further Education (at a college not a million miles from Glasgow North-East), I have observed, since incorporation, FE lecturers' salaries gradually diverge to the point that the differential between best-paid and worst-paid colleges amounts to over £5,000/yr for essentially the same work. Meanwhile, college senior management teams have cheerfully awarded themselves year-on-year double-figure rises and are now understandably reluctant to return to central collective bargaining. This "trust" move is not to be trusted!
Re the election: given the number of "don't-knows" it could go either way. I would say that Labour ought to very be worried about Mr Sheridan biting into their vote. Most of the other minor-party candidates also look more placed to take from Labour rather than from the SNP: SLP and SSP in particular, but Smeaton and the Big Brother chap would probably rake in a few chips from Labour's populist wing, and, unfortunate though it may be, the BNP will probably draw on the bottom-feeder element in the Labour vote.
Frankly, it's a mystery to me how any thinking individual in the constituency can think for one minute of voting Labour. I work in the area and my maternal ancestors built locomotives here. I know Springburn extremely well and the change from a bustling hard-working community to the drug-raddled, gang-infested, dole-dependent ghetto that it is now happened under Labour's watch. That's not to say that there aren't a lot of dedicated people working at grass-roots level to turn it round but their efforts have generally been backed by the EU rather than our local politicians.
A personal observation which may be of some comfort to Eck and Co. - over the years I've noticed a definite slide towards the SNP from Labour on the part of my teaching colleagues. 15 years ago, however politically bankrupt Labour were perceived to be, the SNP were still viewed in our staffroom as an extremist wing of the Liberals - definitely not to be taken seriously. In all the discussion that's taken place in the last few weeks, I think I've only heard two opinions expressed against the SNP (and one of those was the Principal!).
Just a couple of final comments:-
The Guardian, despite having been informed differently by myself and others, has twice in the last 10 days claimed that Wee Willie Bain is "the only candidate who lives in the constituency". I don't know if it's bias or simply that all the cutbacks in the journalistic work-force mean that they're dependent on Labour hand-outs for information.
I've been reading this blog for some weeks now as Brian always comes across as a such a nice chap on the telly and I thought I'd check it out. My eyes have been opened as regards the pro-unionist media bias at the Beeb and I'm wondering how I could have ignored it for so long in the rest of the media. I suppose the "British culture is fair and above-board" hoo-hah I got at school back in the days of the Empire must have survived vestigially even after what the 60s did to my brain (or because of it? I really don't remember :))
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48. John__
This from Reuters:
The list of possible new nuclear power stations includes Kirksanton, a site in Cumbria, northern England, proposed by German utility RWE (RWEG.DE) which is not close to any existing nuclear facilities and overlaps a small wind farm. [ID:nLF060304]
The government rejected EDF Energy's (EDF.PA) Dungeness power station on the south coast of England as a possible site for new reactors because of environmental and flooding concerns.
But it approved EDF sites at Hinkley Point in Somerset and Sizewell in Suffolk where the French energy giant plans to build four reactors....
Three other sites, at Kingsnorth, southern England and Owston Ferry and Druridge Bay, both in northeast England, may be suitable for new nuclear plants to be built after 2025, Miliband said.
Those are all the specifics I've seen.
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48. John__
"Any comments?"
Madness proposed by loony!
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45. JRMacClure
"The attitude that Westminster is more important than Holyrood is, I think, a holdover from the belief that Britain is more important than Scotland."
I think you are right. Of course, many of us blogging here were not "in the first flush of youth" in 1999 when we had the first elections to the SP, so we have a long history of seeing Westminster as the only route to Independence.
The reason that I voted yes for the woefully inadequate Scottish Assembly in 1979, and more enthusiastically for the current Parliament, is that I always believed that it would be through a Scottish political body that independence would be achieved.
Focussing on Westminster is a distraction. The critical data from today's poll is that more than 40% of Scots intend to vote for parties that favour Independence at both constituency and list levels. That is a huge base from which to progress.
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Greetings from Raleigh, North Carolina.
So we have one blog post on the forthcoming by-election. Compare that with the number of words on this website that were expended upon the sundry US elections held last week. Contrary to what the BBC tries to suggest, the contests told us very little about the political winds over here. Interesting to a political junkie but of no relevance to the electorate of Glasgow North-East.
In the meantime, we have nothing of note on this website relating to a by-election that is of some relevance.
Am I the only one who thinks that this abrogation of responsibility to inform means that the BBC forfeits its right to a mandatory licence fee? If I were still liable for that impost, I would feel very aggrieved.
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When the Labour Government rip you off for £300 million, is it not time to stand up for ourselves?
Back to the Record Willie Bain said he had met 10,000 residents!
Say he has been a canditate for 10 weeks that is 70 days or 142 people a day @ say 5mins each about 12 hours non stop. Integrity!
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#42 JRMacClure
Look at the time line.
Spring 2010 General Election for Westminster, (Tory win, emergency funding from IMF)
Early Summer 2010 Referendum Bill at Holyrood, if won
Autumn 2010 Referendum? else SNP take their ba' back after the defeat and the unionists have to try to run Holyrood (Scottish block grant slashed),
New Year 2011 Scottish Budget must be passed,
Spring 2011 Holyrood Election.
There is nothing the SNP can do to alter the present Holyrood arithmetic before the vote on the Referendum Bill but 25 SNP MPs means only 26 Labour MPs and the Torys having 2 really puts the screws on the unionists at that vote as they can see a lot of themselves out of their cushy positions either through losing or being deselected in favour of displaced big hitters that lost out at Westminster.
And if we don't get the referendum in 2010 then its on to Holyrood 2011.
The stick is in your yard. 8-)
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53. oldnat
And you hit on some important words:
A base from which to build. I see no way with anything LIKE a properly run SNP election campaign that it won't go up from that.
PEOPLE: The SNP is actually nearing (not at but within shooting distance of) a MAJORITY in the Scottish Parliament. Think about it!
THINK what that would mean.
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re #56
And never forget that 30 Westminster MPs by Westminster rules means the SNP speak for the Scots majority and can take the flight to the UN in New York and get a proper UN refereed referendum. 20 will scare the *living daylights* out of the unionists, too damn close!
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"No one can ever imprison a people who know what it is to be free"
Prime Minister Gordon Brown... In Berlin witnessing the anniversary of the tearing down of the Berlin wall.
These words could prove prophetic!!
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54. Skip_NC
I was surprised at how off they were on the US elections and then ignored it. The issue of a license fee to an organization as biased as the BBC? I would be beyond pissed if it were me!
Why aren't more Scots actively protesting, by the way?
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56. handclapping
Handclapping, I am simply in serious doubt that the SNP can afford to fund all the campaigns you are talking about.
Do they have that much in the war chest? I seriously doubt it. If they have that much money, sure--run at anything that moves.
Otherwise they have to choose their fights.
I VERY strongly disagree that they should write off Holyrood and I've posted why. If they control Holyrood, you get a referendum. If they don't, NO REFERENDUM.
The stick is in your yard. ;-)
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55. cynicalHighlander
I don't know but the "noise abatement" discussion had me laughing out loud!
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I would consider it more beneficial to the SNP if the don't win the bye-election, since come the GE they can turn round and say "well, what have Labour achieved?"
Whereas if the SNP do win, Labour might use that argument against them, pointing out that the SNP are in power in Scotland blah blah blah.
However, if the SNP do win it, I think there will be a direct challenge on Brown. Because if Labour lose a safe seat then they will go for broke, and the PM is not exactly Mr Popular.
The Lib Dem showing is crucial as well. I personally think the party is about to get slaughtered both here and in the GE. I would not be surprised if they go the way of the SDP, and get beaten by the Monster Raving Looney Party as well.
Tommy Sheridan might be a great orator, but I cannot take his policies seriously. But Glasgow NE is more his turf than the East Coast, and he might pull in a suprising number of voters, almost all which will come from Labour.
But the turnout I fear will be low, and the result has to take this into consideration.
On a different note, things are getting a bit hairy over in South America between Columbia and Venezuala.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8349745.stm
I can see why Chavez is getting concerned, with US forces using Columbia as a base against drugs. But I also think he is looking for a fight with the USA. Not a good idea and one which could backfire on him politically.
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58. handclapping
I agree on the UN referee...
If you can afford both, that's good.
If you can't afford both, then choices have to be made. Pretty basic political arithmetic of the kind that ALL political parties have to make.
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If he who lives in London,and comes home to his mammy
to iron his socks,wins on Thursday,do we get a headline
"Its the Scots BBC that WON it"
and will Brian/Glen/Catriona turn the lights out on
political debate!!!
STV's Ponsonby had a better discussion with 4 canditates!
Doing a late night poll count on BBC2???
Which one of you three is to be at the count???
Expect them to say "Its the BBC that won it"
Where does political debate go now???
Furthur entrenchment at Pacific Quay,come April/May 2010 ???
Is it going to be worth responding to a "Bleather with Brian"
for the next 5 or 6 months??? Yawn!!! Sorry,just a reaction!!!
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Tonight's STV News item on Glasgow NE.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/west-central/136023-snp-candidate-says-labour-are-ahead/
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"most privately reckon Labour is still clearly in the lead, with polling due on Thursday".
I don't get it, why wouldn't Labour be in the lead, this by-election has been delayed more than long enough for the people of Glasgow to totally forget that the seat is only available because disgraced Michael Martin allowed himself and his cronies to abuse the expenses system to line their own pockets with hundreds and hundreds of thousands of Tax payers money, including some Tax payers in Glasgow.
Personally I think a week would have sufficed.
Maybe Gordin Browne can rite a persinal letter to his potentail voters explaining that if he can become President then anything is possible.
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63. Neil_Small147
Interesting points, Neil. I'm not sure that this election is ready to be called, but losing it is hardly a disaster to the SNP. It would be to Labour and might well cause them to put what money they DO have into holding onto seats in Scotland where they are viewed as having at least a fighting chance. Not necessarily a positive.
Things are often not as straightforward as one might think in politics.
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Can they declare no postal voting in a referendum?
Just wondering.
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69. JRMacClure
A referendum called by the Scottish Parliament would have to use one of the 2 electoral registers (the UK election register, or the Scottish Parliament/local election one - which includes EU citizens resident here) and the accompanying rules. The UK Parliament can (and does) make up its own rules.
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#$$ - Ed
"What a contest this could have been had the state broadcaster and indeed the press treated the campaign and the public with a degree of respective balance and respect".
That's all I would ask of them but it's too much for their owners and masters. Free speech - not in this country.
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Why does Newsnight Scotland invite Brian Wilson for comment on building nuclear plants when we all know he is in favour since he gets his wages from the nuclear industry? Anyway who could believe anything he said after the Harris Tweed lies.
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I have just been reading the following report:
Monitoring poverty and social exclusion in Scotland 2008
Life expectancy for both women and men in Scotland is lower than in any of the so-called 'arc of prosperity' countries, by up to three and five years respectively.
I wonder when they wrote the report if they had Wee Eck in mind?
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Time the BBC was moved out of Glasgow. Far too biased. It needs a dose of fresh country air to get the labour fug out of the editor's nostrils.
How about a transfer to Lewis or Harris or Benbecula or even Spittal of Glenshee - at a stroke increasing local employment, improving transport links and at the same time cleaning out the stables of Glencambly manure. Speaking of same he will no doubt, in best metropolitan fashion, wont want to move there.
Arrrrrgh, you know what I've done.....more anti Glasgow bias!
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68. At 10:48pm on 09 Nov 2009, JRMacClure wrote:
I agree, losing this bye-election will not cause the SNP leadership to lose any sleep. Winning it will be a bonus though.
Labour will be happy enought to retain the seat, and will rely on some good fortune over the next 6 months or pray for the Scottish Government to make a cockup somewhere, which is unlikely as nothing is appearing on the horizon.
What IS going to appear on the horizon very soon in Megrahi, if he lives beyond the 3 month date. That will almost certainly appear in the news.
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70. oldnat
Could they use the Scottish one in spite of the EU citizens? It would seem preferable to using the UK one!
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75. Neil_Small147
I think you're right on all points. Expect to hear The Scotsman screaming if al-Megrahi doesn't die "on schedule".
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74. Robabody
Haha! It would be good for BT. Get him out walking to the office every day and eating fewer pies. ;-)
Not to mention, out amongst people who might gently explain that pro-Labour bias is not a desirable trait.
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76. JRMacClure
I think the assumption is that the Scottish/local register would be used, as that is the one used for electing the SP. Politically it also makes sense. Scotland's future should be decided by those Europeans who live here. It demonstrates our commitment both to Europe and inclusion.
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79. oldnat
I won't say it sounds more trustworthy than the UK one--because surely the UK wouldn't have rigged elections.
I HOPE they have either no postal voting or better oversight of it.
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And the SNP drives forward real improvements in patient care without obsessing with targets.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/health/hospital-infection-control-system-criticised-by-inspectors-1.931413
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Scots ‘have been sold short by flawed Calman report’
The limitations of the Calman Commission on increasing the powers of the Holyrood parliament have sold the Scottish people short and do not offer the electorate all the constitutional options, according to the SNP.
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Sick bags at the ready its time for the Mad Ox:
Key services 'would pay the £9m price of SNP's referendum'
Money from key services would be needed to meet the £9 million cost of the SNP's referendum, it was claimed yesterday.
The accusation came as SNP finance secretary John Swinney was grilled by members of Holyrood's finance committee in Glasgow over his proposals for the budget.
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83. Roll_On_2010
"Key services 'would pay the £9m price of SNP's referendum'"
Key services would pay the £76bn price of Labour's Trident.
Key services would pay the £20bn price of Labour's Iraq and Afghan imperial adventures.
Incidentally where does the £9m referendum cost figure come from?
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83. Roll_On_2010
They really do need to fire David Maddox, not because he bashes the SNP, which is after all newspaper policy obviously, but because he is so BAD at it.
Consider this. In 2005, the SNP constituency vote was 32%. In 2009, the most recent poll shows the constituency vote as 48%. So every year of attacks by The Scotsman and Maddox (with help from The Herald et al) has RAISED the SNP popularity by 2%!
Ha! You have to admit, as a propagandist he is NOT good at his job.
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85. JRMacClureOops. Typo. Should be 40%. Sorry. (48 would be nice and might be achievable--but not yet. ;-) )
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And against my OWN argument that Westminster doesn't matter take a look at the new Populus poll that would give the Tories a razor thin majority which could give a small party some clout in important votes (I am still concerned about the money issue for the SNP in two elections so close together--don't get me wrong. It takes money and lots of it to win elections) But I am always willing to switch sides in an argument. Makes life more interesting. ;-)
Poll contains warning signs of a tiny Tory majority
Interesting results. Although rather odd that such a large lead would give such a small majority--something I'd be wondering about if I were British.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
oldnat #84
Kerr gave the figure of approx £9 million in the Daily Record podcast.
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Aye Brian , I have something to declare!
The media .both print and broadcast , has fallen so far below my expectation of truth,honesty, fairness and impartiality that I switch off BBBC Scotland ,have stopped watching Newsnight, Question Time and Reporting Scotland.
I no longer buy a Herald and I would object to the Scotsman as a wrapper for chips.
I will continue to read your blog because those who contribute to it lead me to information that the " establishment" appear not to want to promote.
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# 50 Bobelix
My eyes have been opened as regards the pro-unionist media bias at the Beeb and I'm wondering how I could have ignored it for so long in the rest of the media. I suppose the "British culture is fair and above-board" hoo-hah I got at school back in the days of the Empire must have survived vestigially even after what the 60s did to my brain (or because of it? I really don't remember :))
MY eyes were really opened to the glencampbelliness of the BBC during the Russia/Georgia war. Like you I had a deep respect for the BBC, in my youth, and held them up as purveyors of truth. I don't know whether this was just my inexperience or brainwashing but it came to the fore during this conflict. My girlfriend was born in the USSR and during that short war I had many arguments with her about the propaganda from both sides. I naturally, at the start, took the viewpoint of the BBC until she asked me to put aside my own biasedness. It wasn't easy but I managed to do this and it certainly opened my eyes. Suffice to say I was shocked at the blatant propaganda broadcast by the BBC concerning this war. Since then I have taken the BBC's international news with a huge pinch of salt.
In my youth I used to say that if you want the truth then read the 'Times' and then the 'Morning Star' and the truth will be somewhere in the middle. I now do that with all international news and try to balance what the BBC is reporting by reading, online, other countries point of view, from Russia to China.
The BBC, no matter what it tries to protray to its listeners is a propaganda arm of the British Government and, sadly, always has been.
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#84 oldnat
I have it in mind that the Glenrothes bye-election cost Fife Council something like £100,000 so 59 constituencies would be £6 million and then there would have to be publicity about what was happening and who could vote and the extra mark-up as the Government is paying so £9m is about right and it reads as if Swinney gave the figure.
What is the betting that "Referendum to cost £9,000,000!" was ditched in favour of "Key services 'would pay the £9m price of SNP's referendum'" courtesy of Tavish? So refreshing to get something from the UnLibUnDems as opposed to the daily diet from John Smith House.
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Have a read at the ukpollingreport analyisis of this,
http://tinyurl.com/ycc3vpw
"Technically speaking they are within the margin of error of a position somewhere inbetween, and since there’s no methodological explanation my guess is that it is just that – normal sample error with the real picture being a lead around 13 or 14."
This is about what all the other polls have ie the Tories with about 13 to 14% lead, the extremes are ICM at about 17/18% this populus poll at about 10% and all the rest somewhere in between.
There are Uk polls almost on a daily basis and some 22 polls in October alone, it is reasonable to assume that there is a broad enough sample to be able average them out.
My question is that with a 13/14% lead the Tories have an overall majority of about 80, but with 10% lead they have a very small majority?
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Re previous blog
600. northhighlander
"600. At 7:47pm on 09 Nov 2009, northhighlander wrote:
590. eye_write
British rant apart agree entirely with your excellent post."
Thank you - I can do cynical!
Funny though, because my view on religion is exactly the same as my view on the British state - there for power and the means by which they secure it quite apparent. Believers are not evil but mistaken ;-)
I think we have to stop believing that the British state isn't bad. It is. It determined quite plainly to deliberately deny Scotland as much fiscal leverage as possible when proposing the criteria within which those post referendum (remember it was forced to have that, did not want to!) tax raising powers could be operated. At the very least, there was so much effort to avoid a system similar to that of the US or Canada, it was obtuse. It put in so much effort to not similarly give its power away. Even just the tone and the way these commons accounts were written shows that. History is littered with other examples the same.
Scotland couldn't do that to itself.
Perhaps if you were religious you would have thought that part of my #590 too was a rant? :-)
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I suspect that voter apathy will win the day NOT any particular party, Willie Bain purports to stand for the local people, yet at the hustings he attended last night specifically designed to give local people a chance to air their questions he did not come across like he gave one iota of care for the local people..
on hearing complaints made by local people of living in the high rise flats that GHA had neglected to care for in many diabolical ways he replied glibly 'i love living in my flat..' yes you love living in London i bet Willie...
I think if people were motivated to turn out to this election, labour would suddenly not be sure of their firm grip on GNE. I reckon it will be apathy that determines the winner of the election. which in all accounts is shame. 74 years of neglect already!
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UK trade gap widened in September led by a jump in car imports as Britain's scrappage scheme helped foreign carmakers.
The difference between what the UK exports and what it imports was £7.2bn in September, well above analyst expectations of a £6.1bn deficit.
Imports of overseas-made cars jumped by 30% during the month, said the Office for National Statistics.
So there you go folks....... Labour's economic policy helps create overseas jobs!
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More Glencampbelliness. It just doesn't suit the BBC unionist agenda to report the banking bail-outs properly. Apparently, according to Radio Scotland news, Barclays never received a bail-out.
Well they did. From the Gulf states, in fact they refused Broon's money. Imagine that, not saved by Broon. Not only Scottish banks that struggled. And not dependent on the UK to survive.
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A relevant snippet from Jim Sillars' 1986 book: 'Scotland: The Case for Optimism' about campaigning for Harry Selby against Margo MacDonald in the Govan bye-election of 1973:
'By polling day only wee Harry was confident of winning. I ended up trudging round the streets near Ibrox Park with Jim Fyfe of the Glasgow herals, a Labour Party member. About 8 p.m. we packed it in when Willie Ross toured past us in a car shouting through the loudspeaker system: "Noo's the day and noo's the hour for Govan to kick out Tory power". It was ludicrous. Tories in Govan were a tiny minority; Labour controlled the area and the city of Glasgow. It was Labour power and what was done or not done with it that lay at the heart of the bye-election. Margo won by 571 votes.'
She lost it, of course, at the next General Election. For too many at that time - 36 years ago!- the penny hadn't dropped, and although more and more in the traditional Labour heartlands are now recognising the evidence that that party is incapable of changing things for the better, and is merely a vehicle for self-serving ambition, it's a sad reflection on Scottish society that there remain thousands who, in ignorance or desperate denial, are still clinging to the wreckage.
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Here we go again. More anti-Scottish rubbish put about by the UK media SNP refusal to go nuclear ‘will cost jobs and expertise’. Interesting that Peter Hughes, chief executive of Scottish Engineering said:
that a country without its own secure energy was vulnerable to hostile regimes making unsavoury demands in exchange for power.
Maybe he can point out to us exactly which 'hostile regimes' he is talking about when Scotland will be self-sufficient in all of its power requirements. Or is this another instance where they slag off the SNP and Scotland but use UK concerns to back up their case?
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Another piece of bad news on Scottish jobs
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8352456.stm
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Anybody see any parallells with another set of islands closer to home?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8350000/8350345.stm
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#99 gedguy2
Even Dr Hughes admits we've got skills in decomissioning so why not build on that. There are going to be plenty of redundant nuclear stations around the world soon enough. We don't need to be experts in everything; find something we are good at and work on it till we are the best. Not something that is going to happen with us in the nuclear build and run cycle so on that score Dr Hughes is talking through his hat.
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real life in a part of Glasgow North East as seen in words and pictures in a real piece of Scottish investigational journalism .
(I bet you never thought you would see those three words in the same sentence ever again!!)
Often wondered what ex BBC employees can actually achieve?
Go to Scottish Review and be enlightened.
Sid
Sorry unable to set up a link , don't know how.
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103. sidthesceptic
Inside Ghost City
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#103 sid
and if your a bit dim like me:-
Go to the top of the screen and you'll find a box with something like
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2009/11/anything_to_declare.html
in it. If you click on it you should be able to copy it. Then come back here and when you want to tell us, just paste it on a new line.
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# 103 sidthesceptic
link tips
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I'm no fan of Gordon Brown but the current fuss about the errors in the letter of condolence he wrote to the mother of a dead soldier leaves me feeling very uncomfortable. The righteousness of the guy from the Sun on today's Daily Politics was vomit-inducing. No money was involved he said, but, when pressed it turns out they had talked to her about setting up a fund for bereaved families etc.. Brown's staff should have checked the letter for errors but I would like to think that, although it has backfired on him, he meant well. In her raw state, the dead boy's mother had the right to feel aggrieved at what she saw as a lack of respect, but to go to The Sun.....Our press really is in the gutter.
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# 102 handclapping
Strange how everything in our favour is against us.
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Online Ed Here
Kenneth Roy from Scottish Review [link above at 104] very kindly permits Newsnet Scotland to publish his articles.
The images and stories from Springburn are all too familiar with myself and many people from another once proud town - Greenock.
Scotland is on the verge of a social catastrophe, I feel it. It will make Thatchers eighties appear a cakewalk. The forgotten generation of the seventies and eighties will very shortly be unable to perform the low paid manual contract work that has kept them just above the breadline for years - they have no pensions.
I'm afraid that BBC Scotland contributes next to nothing of worth to the constitutional debate. This blog from Taylor is a metaphor for how the BBC in Scotland view the country.
We have one alternative to this disaster and we owe it to ourselves to keep struggling to get the message out.
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# 107 raisethegame
I would tend to agree with your sentiment. I can see how the mother of that brave soldier might be offended by Gordon's spelling mistakes but for the media to make political capital out of his eyesight problem is beyond decency.
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Re "Inside Ghost City"....I'm speechless!
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Instead of talking about voter apathy why not ask some questions of Willie Bain. Am I really to believe that he lives in Glasgow whilst working in London. It all seems suspicious to me.
I work in Duke Street, Willie Bain's been seem once. David Kerr comes out with cameras and then disapears and contrary to the msm when the BNP come round no one is cheering them. Smeaton is getting my vote as he wants to set up community courts. God knows we need them.
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#103 sidthesceptic
The template for a link is as follows:
[a href=”URL”]Text[/a]
Were the ‘[‘ and ‘]’ brackets above are replaced by the angle brackets above the (,) comma and (.) dot/period. ie. shift (,) and Shift (.) respectively.
Thus:
[a href=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8352140.stm]My Link[/a]
Becomes
My Link
Tip: Ensure there are no spaces between the pair of inverted commas at the beginning and end of the URL.
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The Scottish Review is a little naughty in the Ghost City piece:
The Fountainwell Road estate is managed by the largest social landlord in Europe, Glasgow Housing Association, a creation of the Scottish Government
I think it was actually the Scottish Executive and the GHA was the brain child of one Wendy Alexander. Well, we knew she had brain to spare, didn't we?
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my thanks to you all for the tips , just thought the piece needed as many "hits" as such a revealing piece of work deserves
cheers, Sid
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74.
You definitly don't want the BBC to set up shop in the Hebrides. Glen Campbell is from Islay.
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#116 Father Mac
Oh yes we do. Do you think he would dare come back when everbody would know where his Auntie bides?
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After the endless comment about Brown's lack of respect/handwriting/
spelling/eyesight on News24/The Sun/other airwaves/etc
it would appear that-
BBC London are promoting "Anyone but Labour" while
BBC Scotland are promoting "No one but Labour" in Glasgow NE.
Pandering to different political masters like this will eventually
lead to the slicing and dicing of the BBC.
Then it will be state controlled broadcasting !!!
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