Elementary, my dear Watson
Not sure if, like me, you are a fan of the Sherlock Holmes stories penned by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.
In one, Holmes' trusty associate Dr Watson asserts that one event, following hard upon another, represents "an amazing coincidence."
Holmes replies: "The odds are enormous against its being coincidence. No figures could express them. No, my dear Watson, the two events are connected - MUST be connected. It is for us to find the connection."
A comparable task confronts those who are trying to understand, fully, the apparent endgame which is under way with regard to Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi, the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing.
Item: Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill is actively considering whether to return Megrahi to Libya, either on compassionate grounds or under a prisoner transfer scheme.
Item: Megrahi's lawyers announce that he is seeking leave of the court to abandon his appeal against conviction, the second such appeal he has lodged.
We are asked by the Scottish Government to accept that these two incidents are entirely unrelated.
I refer, my honourable friend, to the reply given earlier by Mr S. Holmes of 221b Baker Street, London.
A couple of points. Prisoner transfer to Libya could not proceed while proceedings in this country remain active. So dropping the appeal would be a precondition for that avenue.
How about the other route, then? Compassionate release because of Megrahi's illness?
The two issues - abandoning the appeal and Megrahi's health - are linked in the statement issued today by the Libyan's lawyers, Taylor and Kelly.
They say that his condition has taken a "significant turn for the worse in recent weeks."
Others argue that Megrahi has come under pressure to drop his appeal in order to pave the way to his release on compassionate grounds. That would, arguably, be a tidy solution.
Once again, the Scottish Government adamantly denies that there is any link.
Which leaves us where? Awaiting developments.
On Tuesday, Megrahi's lawyers will seek leave of the High Court to drop the appeal. Mr MacAskill's decision will follow shortly thereafter.
He has promised an outcome by the end of the month. I would not be remotely surprised if the result is that Megrahi returns to Libya.
Mr MacAskill is in an exceptionally difficult position, pressed from all sides, faced with competing perspectives.
UK ministers plainly want an end to the process, not least because they are resisting publication of documents said to emanate from a foreign government which, it is claimed, could cast light upon the case.
The resistance is founded upon an assertion that security would be breached by publication. So diplomats and the security service would welcome a deal that forestalled disclosure.
From an early position where the Scottish Government protested angrily that it had not been consulted over the agreement between Tony Blair and Colonel Gaddafi, ministers in Scotland have - quite rightly - been brought into discussions with their UK counterparts.
The Scottish legal system might well welcome closure of this protracted, challenging case.
The counter point of view, advanced by Nationalist MSP Christine Grahame, among others, is that Scottish justice is better served by persisting in efforts to dig out the truth.
Then there is the issue of compassion. Megrahi is said to be terminally ill with prostate cancer.
Regardless of other issues, should the justice secretary pay heed to that?
Either way, relatives of those who died are decidedly not content.
There are those who believe that Megrahi is guilty and who say there should be no deal whatsoever - he should remain in jail in Scotland.
Those who believe he is innocent - and consequently welcome his release - nevertheless are voicing distress that the emerging shape of events means that the search for further information will be stalled.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~27~RS~)
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Security needs change all the time look at when we befriended Saddam now it is Gaddafi also Bil Clinton in North Korea
My point is things will never change for the relatives which is why they deserve closure by finding out the truth.
Release him on compassionate grounds and continue the appeal
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One wonders what the outcome of the original trial would have been if there had been a jury instead of just three Judges? What part did the CIA and American and UK Governments play in this farce which has undermined the Rule of Law in Scotland.
What happened to the suitcases containing money and white powder - why was that never brought up at the trial.
How long did it take the CIA to appear on the scene??
Too many questions unasked and unanswered - yet another whitewash???
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There is nothing to discuss he was convicted, and has only decided to drop his appeal because he thinks it will set him free quicker, the best thing to do is let him rot in prison, and tell the English government to keep out as it none of their concern due to it being a Scottish criminal case in which the English government has no say whatsoever.
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"On Tuesday, Megrahi's lawyers will seek leave of the High Court to drop the appeal. Mr MacAskill's decision will follow shortly thereafter.
"He has promised an outcome by the end of the month. I would not be remotely surprised if the result is that Megrahi returns to Libya."
A terrible thought: what if Mr MacAskill - under pressure from the US government - decides not to repatriate Mr Megrahi?
Presumably, Megrahi's appeal cannot be resurrected; the Crown's appeal to increase his sentence remains; and Megrahi stays in HMP Greenock!
In these circumstances, it will not come as a surprise when the Libyan leader, Colonel Gaddafi, addresses the UN General Assembly on 23 September 2009 if he calls for a 'United Nations Inquiry into the death of UN Commissioner for Namibia, Bernt Carlsson, in the 1988 Lockerbie bombing' - see http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/UNInquiry/.
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Was he guilty? Whether you believe that or not is the case. He was convicted.
Should he be released on compasionate grounds? My personal opnion is yes, if he really is terminally ill. Does anyone truly belief a single man could have commited this atrocity without significant aid and large financial backing (and I dont think Libia could have pulled this of on their own).
finially the CIA are suddenly on the scene. Now it might well be that they had nothing to do with this but they have a long history of black operations even against ther so called 'allies'. So if there is nothin to hide complete the investigation. The Brittish government refusing to allow a complete public investigation only reinforces the ideas that CIA, goverments, or such or similar agencies did collude in this atrocity.
My view is to release him if he truly terminally ill, but for the investigation to continue. There are way to many questions unanswered and if this is a case of colusion amoung foregn powers and secret services whats to stop it happening again?
I really do feel for the families of those who lost loved ones, their loss cannot be replaced, but without finding out the full facts can we guarantee a similar atrocity will never happen again without completing a full investigation. To me that would be an even bigger insult to the bereaved families and those of a possible future attack.
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#4 Bernt_Carlsson
Thanks for the info on the proposal for a 'United Nations Inquiry into the death of UN Commissioner for Namibia, Bernt Carlsson, in the 1988 Lockerbie bombing'. I didn't know of that. I see it is supported by Robert Black and Iain McKie.
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Afternoon , welcome back Brian, one of your best posts,excellent, showing that you still have the art of writing a completely balanced piece ,well done.
now that the appeal has been dropped whether he goes back to Libya or he dies in Greenock the USA & GB government's and their respective secret services win the battle to keep their grubby secrets to themselves. This whole episode is an absolute disgrace that has sullied the Scottish legal system which was used ,abused and ignored just like Mr Megrahi.
Brown ,Blair & Bush at their disgraceful best.
Sid
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"There is nothing to discuss he was convicted." He would hardly be the first person to be convicted only for it to turn out that he was innocent all along. Like his alleged accomplice, who was also convicted... and then acquitted.
This case has stunk from the start (read Private Eye back in the 90s) but there are too many government interests involved to have much hope of the truth ever coming out. Even Libya went along with the whole sham in order to get the oil companies back in the country and get their economy moving again.
Truth and justice are just words... realpolitik makes the rules.
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The two issues compassion for Magrahi and his guilt must not be confused. The grubby deal being conconcted appears to very much confuse the two.
If Magrahi is to be released on compassionate grounds then that is a legitimate decision for the Justice Secretary to make and does not require that his appeal is withdrawn as I understand it.
However if a deal is being offered that this is conditional on his giving up his appeal that stinks quite a lot.
There are only two possible readings of this situation, either he is guilty or the politicians involved want this whole saga to go away.
I would expect given the debacle surrounding the appeal and the length of time it has taken Kenny Mackaskill would want an inquiry to see what lessons can be learned on this whole mess.
Sad though if the guy is innocent that he has to die without an opportunity to clear his name. Not a good advert for Scottish Justice.
Also the victims groups will not be happy that a convicted terrorist has been released, 290 people died in this atrocity, they received no compassion.
The Justice secretary has a difficult and unenviable task here, but the whole handling seems flawed, he is still maintaining no decision or deal has been made, plainly it has. It all looks like a grubby political deal that will bury the truth with Mr Magrahi.
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Re 7 Sid
The resolution of this fiasco is not in the hands of Westminster, it lies in the hands of Mr Macaskill.
If he is unhappy with the proceedings he can do something about it. The way this is unfolding it looks like you can add Kenny's name to your list and probably that of Mr Gadaffi as well.
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To release a man who was found guilty of mass murder and has had one appeal already turned down stinks of political manoevering rather than an attempt at seeing justice done. Is Westminster pressurising the Scottish government to avoid embarrassment over some previous deal ? I hardly think so , at least I would hope that McKaskill would not be a party to this. Even considering this release, casts doubts on the integrity of the Scottish police who carried out the investigation and the Judges who reached a verdict at the trial and casts doubts over the efficacy of the whole Scottish legal system. If the government is satisfied that the trial and the investigation were carried out in a proper manner then they must conclude that for the henious crime committed the sentence was correct and there can be no remission unless this was agreed by the relatives of the victims, and that will be far from forthcoming.
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MacAskill is in an impossible position here. Should Magrahi be left to die in jail? Or should compassion be shown and Magrahi be released?
I think we'll see the third way (and yes, that'll be ironic) being used here and MacAskill agreeing to a Libyan prisoner transfer request. That way, Labour can't use doing the right thing as a weapon against SNP.
Of course, we will know in a few days.
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This case gives no confidence signals in the law. If Mr Magrahi is not guilty then his appeal being dropped blocks the possibility of revealing a miscarriage of justice. He should not be released other than he has proven his innocence. But it seems obvious to conclude Mr Magrahi has been tempted to jeopardise his plea of innocence on assurances that he will be able to spend the rest of his life in his homeland in the near future. This marks as disreputable the question of justice being carried out properly for these 270 peoples lives, the mayhem and destruction this has caused, for everyone involved until a line has finally been drawn under this case. I cannot see a positive ending.
Has nobody who was initially involved in the investigation and subsequent conviction of Mr Magrahi made a statement yet about this?
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I met an Amercican lobbyist a few years ago who told me Gadaffi paid him a boat load of money to get a personal meeting between a Libian diplomat ANY US senator following the accusations that Libya was involved.
When the meeting was arranged, the diplomat who came was Gafaffi himself. He obvioulsy wanted to protest his innocence, and this lobbyist was convinced Libya had nothing to do with Lockerbie.
He also told me that it would have been impossible for a terrorist to smuggle explosives onto that plane and it was an inside job.
Think what you want, but I beleived him.
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as has been mentioned it is the families and indeed those on board the plane and those killed by the plane who have and will suffer, there is no doubt in my mind there is a big stinky cover up going on and I hope Bush Blair and the rest when the time comes for them to meet their maker being as they are fond to show how religious they are now , are sent to rot in hell
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A few points.
Whether people think the man is innocent or not has NOTHING to do with this and I think it's really out of order the way that the two issues are being conflated by involved parties as a way of justifying their decision.
If he is Innocent, then proceed with the appeal and find so.
Releasing him on compassionate grounds is a completely different issue and so his guilt or innocence shouldn't be a consideration.
On that now, I don't think there is any reason for letting him go. Firstly they are letting him out earlier than would normally be done, normally you get out if you only have 3 months left to live. Secondly, his crimes, of which like it or not he has been found guilty, are considerably more severe than most. Bear in mind that his punishment was life, there needs to be some extraordinary reason for commuting that. Clearly the upset this is causing is a reason to make him serve his punishment.
As for all the conspiracy theorists on here, Libya owned up to the bombings. They didn't just admit to them, they paid reperations to the victims families. The gripe that some victims have about the guilt of megrahi isn't whether it was a conspiracy by the CIA or by S. Africa, but whether Megrahi was just a pawn in a much bigger operation, and that really the principally guilty person is Gaddaffi.
Serious issues like this deserve serious discussion, pointless and stupid conspiracy theories only muddy a debate that is of actual importance to real people.
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Whilst I can try to understand the angst, this must cause the families of all lost in this tragedy; people cannot reject the important questions surrounding this incident:
Who built the Bomb and in which area of CIA protected custody, is he now?
A. A Rogue IRA affiliate, who has US protected status?
What was the reason for Ghaddafi to surrender this man in the first place and offer compensation?
A. Normalisation of relations with the West, rather than be deposed like Saddam?
Why does the Secretary of State want him in continuous incarceration?
A. The US and Britain do not want a dying man uttering a "version contraire" to the populist prose pushed around in Washington and London!!
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#1 George30, #4 Bernt_Carlsson, #5 efanton, #8 DaveP_Houston, #13 polbrannagh & #14 michaeldon
Welcome, newbies, good to see new blood joining the fray.
On Brian's Conan Doyle theme, the interesting parallel, as mentioned on the previous thread, is "the curious incident of the dog in the night-time". The L-Ds and "official" unionists have been attacking MacAskill from the outset, but of NuLab's usually ubiquitous Mr Gray and omnipresent Mr Murphy we hear nothing.
The dropping of the appeal is perhaps a precursor for the UK government's transfer deal to be implemented with the "compassionate" release under foreign jurisdiction. That way, no mud should stick to the Scottish Government and only a little to the UK one, who will be well pleased at the prospect of Anglo-Libyan arms deals.
Sadly, of course, the victims' families will still be denied the whole truth and closure.
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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re #10 north highlander-
Oh how convenient is that!!!
no one finds out the secret that is so, so important and it was that poor, useless,inexperienced and pesky SNP government what done it and let him go free!
NO i would not be adding Mr MacAskill's name to my list.
Blair set up the transfer deal with only one prisoner in mind.
Sid
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If we put all the buzz words (eg government, compassion, political, CIA, justice, closure, etc) to one side and search for 'spiritual', we won't have much left, will we?
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15. At 7:27pm on 14 Aug 2009, romeplebian wrote:
as has been mentioned it is the families and indeed those on board the plane and those killed by the plane who have and will suffer, there is no doubt in my mind there is a big stinky cover up going on and I hope Bush Blair and the rest when the time comes for them to meet their maker being as they are fond to show how religious they are now , are sent to rot in hell
What have Bush and Blair got to do with anything here? Neither were in power or even close to it when Lockerbie happened.
16. At 7:33pm on 14 Aug 2009, NCA999 wrote:
Absolutely bang on - Libya ADMITTED they were behind it.
So to all the conspiracy theorists, come up with absolute proof that it was some sort of CIA enterprise.
270 people died, and we are having a debate about the fate of one man.
The fiasco is becoming political the more I read into it.
So my views are:
Legal: I'm unsure as to whether he actually is the main perpetrator. However Libya admitted involvement so talk of any miscarriage of justice should be directed to Gadaffi.
Polital: staying out of this one until later,
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The elephant in the room is this:
a. IF Megrahi gives up his appeal against conviction next Tuesday;
b. AND (for whatever reason) MacAskill decides not to invoke the PTA or to grant compassionate release;
c. THEN Megrahi stays in HMP Greenock 'ad infinitum'.
Not being a Scot, forgive me for asking: is there a mouse loose aboot this hoose?
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An impossible situation indeed, you couldn’t make this stuff up.
I'm perplexed however.
A precondition of release was originally to drop the appeal - an appeal that has relies on the release or publication of a document detailing possible American involvement in the Lockerbie Bombing.
Libya has admitted already that it only owned up to the bombings because it wanted to rejoin the international community - and rejoined it has - to the delight and wonderment of Bush and Blair - religious zealots and murderers akin.
What exactly is going on here? Is he being freed because his appeal will dig up dirt on Lockerbie? Is he being released on account of his illness? I know many other lifers who killed far fewer people who have never been afforded the chance to die outside a prison hospital.
Is it customary to release a convicted prisoner who has VEHEMENTLY and CONSISTENTLY denied the charge and crime of murder/terrorism? I always thought people who pled guilty to crimes were shown greater leniency - not those who refuse to "admit" their guilt like al-Megrahi.
This my friends stinks to high hell - I am not satisfied that the truth behind Lockerbie has being fully realised and in addition, I do not think al-Megrahi should be released until his conviction is quashed or overturned - regardless of his illness.
This looks to me like a staged whitewash to put the blockers on something titanic being unearthed. There is no other reason to release a man who murdered 240 people and refuses to admit it.
It just doesn't add up.
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#19 sidthesceptic
"Blair set up the transfer deal with only one prisoner in mind."
Spot on, and Duff Gordon was chatting to the Libyans about it just before he abandoned ship for the summer.
#22 Bernt_Carlsson
I'm afraid I don't understand your post. If there's an "elephant in the room" it's surely the deafening silence from NuLab's "usual suspects".
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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For anyones attention;
This is a link to Seif al-Islam's comments in 2008 on Libya's "false confession" regarding the Lockerbie Bombing
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24262350-5005962,00.html
In it he details how Libya only admitted responsibility for the Bombing of Pan-Am 103 to lift sanctions on his country - a self confessed hypocritical move - but in the light of this weeks nerws - surprising? no?
Whats interesting is that no UK based media seems to carry any reference to this story - despite the fact I remember reading about it on this very site last year.
Not proof that Libya wasn't involved - but not exactly consistent testimony that they wree either...
I mean - why the hell would you care about setting the record straight regarding lockerbie when the world has already deigned to accept you into thier bosom once more after you admit responsibility for it?
Again - it doesn't add up.
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#16 NCA999 & #21 Neil_Small147
My apologies for not including you in my previous 2 posts guys (#23 & #25) - they were intended for your attention as I was unsure if either of you knew or remembered that Libya initially denied involvment in Lockerbie - and after their subsequent "confession"
Hardly consistent testimony from Libya, I know - but I thought it worth pointing out that they HAVE denied involvment (as well as admitted it - in dubious circumstances)
Thanks
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It is impossible to conclude that Megrahi is innocent if you read the judgement (which most people patently have not). No-one with any credibility thinks he's innocent. His grounds of appeal are pathetic - "a big boy done it and ran away" - and doomed to failure had he not dropped the appeal. If he's dying, release him in the usual way and then deport him. If not, leave him where he is until he has 3 months left to live. Simple enough.
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SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT
On 24 February 2004, Libya's former prime minister, Shukri Ghanem, went on record on Radio 4's Today Programme - http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/reports/misc/libya_20040224.shtml - saying that there’s no real evidence to prove that Libya was behind the Lockerbie bombing, and his government’s offer to pay compensation was made merely to “buy peace” with the West.
Check it out!
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#27. CassiusClaymore
Anyone who disagrees with your assumption has no creditability in your view.
Pan Am Flight 103
The CIA pick the guilty party for political reasons alone and fabricate things to suit that agenda as they have no moral conscience of truth.
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The whole thing is turning out to be a mess, and no one is going to win.
Re my comment on Bush and Blair, I was referring to the time of the bombing, not subsequent affairs.
I've done a little bit more reading into the posts here and links.
The whole thing is turning into a political trap for the SNP in my opinion. I'm not criticising Macaskil or Salmond by the way, both are doing their jobs properly.
The reason I think it has turned out to be a trap is that while the Justice Secretary carries out his role properly, and without any political agenda, he is now is a dangerous political situation whether he likes it or not.
If he refuses the release, criticism will be raised by the liberal lobby, and the media will probably have a snipe at him. But that is the lesser of the two evils.
If he releases him, then there is a whole host of potential problems.
The US Government will certainly be unhappy, following Ms Clinton's comments. The US media will slaughter the Scottish Government - Libya is still a bad boy to them and US citizens were murdered.
How the UK media will react is unknown, but at least one publication will surely come up with the headline "Scottish Government releases the Lockerbie Bomber".
If he is not released, and the appeal is not raised again, then that - in a political context - is the best situation for all.
But I for one do not want politics involved here (even if I have wanted action in other law and order issues). 270 people were murdered - I knew four of them - and they are now political pawns in a situation that is out of control.
Should the Justice Secretary have left this one alone? Well, not really as he would not be doing his job, and that is why I think the Scottish Government's opponents have sprung a trap.
What do others think? And what do people think the Justice Secretary will so?
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#27 CassiusClaymore
"It is impossible to conclude that Megrahi is innocent if you read the judgement (which most people patently have not)."
I fall in to the "most people" category there, but having been foreman of a jury at the Old Bailey in the '80s I do not believe any "judgement" can give the whole story, and even transcripts of the entire proceedings can be misleading unless you're there in person. It must surely be worrying that no jury made the decision of guilt in the first place.
Can you please post links of what you regard as good evidence for your assertions? Full URLs pasted into the text normally work, or you can use proper HTML as explained in my #84 on the New ways into blogs thread, which is current concerning HTML tagging but obsolete regarding characters above ASCII 127.
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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#30 Neil_Smal147
I agree - this is almost certainly going to turn into a partisan issue and one the unionists wll all line up to take a pop at the competency of the Scottish Government for.
Macaskil is in a very difficult situation - The media here have whipped up enough anger and animosity toward al-Megrahi that I doubt even if he wanted too - he would risk the public's fury at releasing a convicted terrorist/murderer.
If I were Macaskil, I would have pushed for the appeal to be expedited and refused the request of compassionate release outright. I'm not a harsh person - but somewhere along the line there is very, very real political pressure emanating from somewhere for this man to be released.
No-one goes this far to release a (convicted) defiant murderer (he's never admitted responsibility for the atrocity) without something paying dividends in the background. If he is released I will have lost the little faith in Scottish Justice I had left and Macaskill will very sadly lose my respect.
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#28 Bernt_Carlsson
Spot on - I had a feeling I'd read it before 2008 - I must be getting old!
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#30 Neil_Small147
"What do others think? And what do people think the Justice Secretary will so?"
Good and fair post. Surely the abandonment of the appeal would make life easiest for all players, allowing the Libyans to do whatever they want post transfer. Won't get at the truth, though.
Too late for sentient thought tonight, though, so goodnight all.
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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#30. Neil_Small147
Release him on compassionate grounds as that then becomes a humanitarian issue as no one can reasonably accuse of political bias. If one uses prisoner exchange that is deemed for political reasons and leaves him open for posturing by others.
The verdict was flawed because the defense was not allowed to scrutinise some of the prosecution evidence which makes a mockery of the whole trial.
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Whether we like it or not, he is going to be released. I suspect that this prostate trouble could be a red herring just to have an excuse to let him go. I don't know what the legal situation in all this is, especially since he was convicted under Scottish law. Can Westminster overrule the law in Scotland? Does the Justice Secretary in Scotland have the power to refuse the UK Government its wish to release this man?
In the end the man will have to go if a deal has been done and it looks as if a deal has been done. Whether Kenny MacAskill has the will or the inclination to say no to his release; time will tell.
Will the relatives of those people who were murdered eventually find out the truth? Not if the main players on this stage have anything to do with it. It is probably unlikely that the conviction was sound and I am not accussing the Scottish judges but I am accussing a legal system that allows a possible miscarriage of justice for international political reasons. It could also be that the man is fully guilty and the information about the validity of his conviction over the past week is a smoke screen to let the voters think that the conviction may be unsound. The truth is that we, nor the relatives, will ever find out the truth.
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#31.Brownedov wrote:
#27 CassiusClaymore
"It is impossible to conclude that Megrahi is innocent if you read the judgement (which most people patently have not)."
My referred 29 was a reply to CC saved me reposting. He posted similar assertion here
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PS to my # 36
Welcome back Brian. I hope you had a nice holiday. Don't bother thanking us for keeping your blog going until your return; it was easy. ;-)
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35. At 11:40pm on 14 Aug 2009, cynicalHighlander wrote:
#30. Neil_Small147
Release him on compassionate grounds as that then becomes a humanitarian issue as no one can reasonably accuse of political bias. If one uses prisoner exchange that is deemed for political reasons and leaves him open for posturing by others.
The verdict was flawed because the defense was not allowed to scrutinise some of the prosecution evidence which makes a mockery of the whole trial.
--------------
The problem is that while a release is on humanitarian grounds, the opponents will immediately retort about the victims.
This is not Ronnie Biggs we are talking about here, and that early release caused enough fireworks.
Assuming he is released, this is my prediction of the sort of headlines we will see (apologies to Online-Ed for assuming the role of media guru - which I'm not):
"Scottish Government releases Lockerbie Bomber"
For "Scottish Government", a few papers will probably replace those words with "SNP", "Salmond", "MacAskil" etc etc
Also.....
"US relations at an all-time low with Scotland"
"US Government angry at Scottish Government" (replace the words as above)
Plus whatever else the editors can come up with, depending on the readership.
And being cynical, is the timing not rather convenient with a bye-election coming up and a general election not too far away?
If you want an idea on the opinion of the country with regards to this, check the posts out on Have Your Say.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#39 - Neil, MacAskill could wrong foot everybody, frustating all these political editors, and NuLab HQ, simply by doing nothing. But this issue has rumbled on all week and MacAskill has never struck me as a duff Gordie, allowing feverish speculation to build up to an anti-climax.
A prisoner transfer will, at the very least, stop the Grey man droning on at FM questions and on newsnight Scotland. Every time he opened his mouth on the issue, he could be hit over the head with the name Phony B.Liar who has made such a transfer possible.
Releasing Magrahi on compassionate grounds, although the responsible, grown up way to deal with this (come on, which mature, resonable person really wants Magrahi to die in a Scottish prison?) comes, as you've pointed out, with too many damaging head-lines at a time when the SNP could do without them.
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I see today that Hilary Clinton is pushing the Scottish Government to keep Magahi in prison to complete his sentence or his death, whichever comes first. Clinton should keep her big neb out of Scottish affairs.
Is she, as Secretary of State, going to hand over Lois Possada Carriles, an (alleged) CIA operative, to Cuba or Venezuela who is wanted for the blowing up of the Cubana flight 455 on 6th October 1976, killing 76 people, and is residing in Miami?
Justice works both ways.
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Good day to you all .. before i read this little article i found this..
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n12/mile01_.html
it makes interesting reading and may shed some light on the circumstances.
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31, 37 - just google the judgement. It is quite short, very succinct and details the several points of circumstantial evidence which, when taken together, amounted to a sufficiency of evidence (which is, incidentally, a matter of law rather than a matter of fact - a point which has escaped the commentariat). It also details the reasons for finding Fhimah not proven (not "not guilty - yet another widely misunderstood point). As well as rehearsing the (to my mind, completely compelling evidence), it also details Megrahi's various lies regarding his whereabouts at the time of the bombing.
Of course you can assert, as people are doing, that the evidence was fabricated by the CIA, but there is zero evidence for that - absolutely none. You could assert the same about any conviction. In addition, what sort of conspiracy acquits one of the accused? The inconvenient truth here is that there are no facts before the court which forms any basis for overturning the conviction. The second appeal was a political, rather than a legal, tactic.
Don't get me wrong - I am not an apologist for the trial. It was a nonsense - firstly, an indefensible slur on the Scottish legal system (in that it implied that a fair trial was impossible on Scottish soil) and secondly a pointless show trial in which a state agent was offered up as a sacrifice in place of what we should have done - make a retributive military strike against Libya. On a related point, the conspiracy theorists constantly point to the absence of a jury as some sort of evidence of their conspiracy. Don't they know, or are they wilfully ignoring the fact, that the majority of Scottish criminal trials are held under summary procedure without a jury?
If Megrahi is now diagnosed with having 3 months left to live, he should be released on compassionate grounds in the usual way. He shouldn't be treated differently from others no matter the enormity of his crime. Under no circumstances should he be transferred under the transfer agreement, because he will immediately be released.
CC
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Incidentally - someone should tell Tam Dalyell that the murder of President Kennedy is not unsolved...why people keep listening to this self-important, arrogant toff, who thinks that 18 grand is a fair price for a bookcase, is beyond me.
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I think the prospect of possibly paying back 2.7 billion dollars to Libya means we wont get our new Forth road bridge,Dualling of the A96 or A9 and everybody on beans on toast for the next decade !!! This is a very tricky situation.
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#44 - CassiusClaymore is in error!
The verdict of the Scottish Court in the Netherlands for the second defendant Fhimah was NOT GUILTY (not 'not proven') - see http://i-p-o.org/Lockerbie_Verdict-31Jan2001.htm
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"The odds are enormous against its being coincidence."
The word 'coincidence' was originally coined precisely because two events can occur at the same point in time without being related; disputation of the underlying logic is the stuff of conspiracy theorists the planet over (well, in certain parts of the US, anyway).
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Clinton should keep out of this. The blood-money has been paid. The relatives have no further claim. The prisoner is at the disposal of the Crown.
As to the politics, I do not see that justice was done in the first instance with the withholding of evidence that might have been of use to the defence. This might be an embarrasment in the appeal. However now that al-Megrahi has abandoned it, there is little point in keeping a dying man in jail. If he would be released in the normal course of events then he should be treated no differently and let Westminster and Washington play their Great Game as they shall.
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Thank you #43, I knew some of this after reading Dr Swire's letters and other knowledgeable commentators, but not all - very compelling.
To those who say no one of any significance thinks Megrahi innocence, he is one very credible example.
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#44 CassiusClaymore
Please follow standard etiquette on this and other BBC blogs by quoting the moniker as well as the post number when referring to other posts or you'll have us thinking you're a reincarnation of R-E. Even when the numbers are relatively close together it makes everyone's life easier to know who you're replying to - in this case, my #31 and cynicalHighlander's #37.
"just google the judgement"
You have a touching faith in what may be the leastworst search engine but which at the time of writing produces "about 7,960" hits for "lockerbie trial judgement". The first is to the Scottish Court Service (SCS) Lockerbie trial. If that's the source of your knowledge, why not say so?
Of perhaps more general interest is the second link, to the Lockerbie Observer Mission of Professor Hans Köchler, which links to some of the same documents as the SCS website, but also includes other material such as Dr. Hans Köchler's report on the verdict passed by the Scottish Court of 3 February 2001. That document is well worth a read and I would draw your attention to his conclusions [in Para.18] that: "Regrettably, through the conduct of the Court, disservice has been done to the important cause of international criminal justice. The goals of criminal justice on an international level cannot be advanced in a context of power politics and in the absence of an elaborate division of powers."
As you're so convinced that the judgement is correct, your analysis of why Dr. Köchler was mistaken would be of great interest here.
"Don't they know, or are they wilfully ignoring the fact, that the majority of Scottish criminal trials are held under summary procedure without a jury?"
I suspect most who post regularly here know and deplore the fact that successive UK governments have done their utmost to limit access to jury trials throughout the UK. I can only speak from personal experience, where an Old Bailey judge all but instructed the jury of which I was foreman to find two defendants guilty and was so agitated by our acquittal of them that he excused us all of further jury service for life and imposed the maximum possible sentence for a separate charge to which both defendants entered guilty pleas. From what was reported of the proceedings in Kamp van Zeist, any reasonable jury would have been disturbed by the process and may well have discovered doubts which their Lordships Sutherland, Coulsfield & Maclean did not regard as "reasonable".
Their Lordships' "As we have also said, the absence of an explanation as to how the suitcase was taken into the system at Luqa is a major difficulty for the Crown case but after taking full account of that difficulty, we remain of the view that the primary suitcase began its journey at Luqa" alone should ring a few warning bells, I think.
#45 CassiusClaymore
There you go, spoiling whatever credibility you may have built up with your apparently even-handed previous post. I'm no fan of Dalyell but to suggest that JFK's murder "is not unsolved" is to go much too far.
#47 Bernt_Carlsson
"#44 - CassiusClaymore is in error! The verdict of the Scottish Court in the Netherlands for the second defendant Fhimah was NOT GUILTY (not 'not proven')"
Spot on. P79 of the SCS PDF of the verdict states: "In these circumstances the second accused [FHIMAH] falls to be acquitted."
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Isn't this all just a conflict here between two issues:
The more emotive point is that 270 people died that night in a horrific fashion; many may still have been alive for some time after the initial explosion. Surely we need to know the full story to give these people justice?
But realpolitik says we ignore the past, welcome Libya back into the fold and buy up their nice sweet crude.
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#43
Thanks also
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#43 ubinworryinmasheep &
#50 impeachblair3
Thanks for the link and I fully agree with impeachblair3's comments re Swire. Together with Hugh Miles, Hans Köchler and Robert Black they make a nonsense of the idea that only conspiracists are concerned about the verdict and the trial itself.
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#50 I havent read the special that Private Eye did but i was aware that there were major discrepencies in the case and that there were a lot of politics behind his arrest and trial. Quite frankly after reading the info in my link im even more convinced that the documentary 'loose change' is on the ball.
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I hate to say this, but the trap has been sprung, and earlier than I thought.
The resignation call has already been made. Not by the media, not by Labour, not by the other parties. But by a QC.
I do not know about Paul McBride, apart from what has been reported, but his comment carries far more weight.
As for some comments about Hilary Clinton keeping out of it, that's a non-starter for two reasons:
It was an American airline that was attacked and US citizens were killed.
Alex Salmond's meeting with Clinton earlier has been highlighted by the Scottish Government, and to ignore her would be pounced upon by the media.
The truth is that the Justice Secretary has had events taken out of his hands. Yes, he still makes the final decision, but the potential for damage is there.
From a legal perspective, whatever decision he makes is based on circumstances and with referrel to affecte parties.
From a political perspective, he is now trapped. If he makes a decision this weekend some people will say that he has been pushed to make it. If he delays, he will be accused of dithering.
The QC's comments about MacAskil visiting Megrahi is particularly sharp, especially since Christine Grahame has made several visits as well. No doubt the media will highlight this.
(Please correct me if any other parties' MPs/MSPs have visited as well)
Bottom line is that if Megrahi is released, the Scottish Government are going to hit a very big brick wall.
What is angering me about the whole issue, is that the victims are being forgotten.
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#44 CC
The prosecution can withold evidence from the defence by quoting public interest because the Scottish legal sysytem has no disclosure arrangements. To my mind this immediately means a fair trial may not be possible in any cases this manoeuvre is used.The prosecution can then present the evidence supporting their case and withold that which may throw doubt on it. Ask any solicitor and they will tell you "the truth" is what can be successfully argued in court. When the prosecution is led by the Lord Advocate, basically the boss of the judges, can this be viewed as impartial?
http://www.sccrc.org.uk/ViewFile.aspx?id=293
This report shows how circumstantial and possibly unreliable the conviction was. Never mind the conspiracy theories and red herrings, reread the trial verdict and look at how much wieght was attached to a very uncertain witness (Gauci). His evidence was full of uncertainties and the identification process must be viewed as tainted at the very least. I think I can distinguish between someone mid 30s or over 60 and the same goes for the physical discrepancies.
I think Megrahi was involved in the atrocity to some extent, but to lay complete responsibility on his shoulders with such flimsy evidence, takes us way beyond even Holmes skills. In fact, to suggest Libyan Intelligence carried it out without official sanction would be stretching the imagination. There has also been a history of Intelligence Agencies carrying out operations by proxy, especially in the Middle East.
One thing I will guarantee is we will never know the complete truth of the matter. There has been far too much Realpolitik involved.
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Neil i daresay Megrahi has his priorities. I would imagine he would want to go back to Libya a free man but if he's as ill as reported i'm sure he will do anything just to get back to his family for the short time he probably has left. We will never find out the whole truth either if he is released on compassionate grounds or even if he goes for his second appeal. The powers that be will just stall until he passes away and the whole thing is closed.
Incidentaly my father could have been killed that night as he drove up the road returning from England and it happened just an hour after he went past...thankfully he wasnt later.
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#52 commandlinegamer
"Isn't this all just a conflict here between two issues"
Welcome, newbie, and you make a fair point. Trouble is that, given the current polity of the UK, any opprobrium for releasing al-Megrahi will fall on the Scottish government and the SNP whilst any benefits of realpolitik will accrue to the UK government and NuLab, as well as such arms and oil companies who get the contracts. Funny how quiet the Skeletor has gone on the topic, isn't it?
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#56 Neil_Small147
Re Paul McBride, I presume you're talking about this website's QC's call over bomber 'release', oddly not yet on the main Scotland politics page. That tells us he "advises the Tory party on law and order" so I think we can all see where he's coming from.
I do think that the simplest solution would be to implement the transfer deal. Perhaps the smart move for MacAskill would be to write an open letter to the SoS asking Murphy whether the UK government has any interest in the transfer.
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#56 Neil_Small
Best advice is to google Paul McBride QC, make your own opinion on the man, I doubt mine would get past the moderators.
The victims of this atrocity were forgotten by the Establishment a long time ago, becoming little more than leverage to be used in the World Power game. Compare the fates of Gadaffi and Hussein with their actual crimes. One kowtowed to American Power, the other challenged and paid the price. As I said earlier Realpolitik, rather than justice.
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CasiusClaymore should possibly read a bit more before sounding off. His comment in #45 about the Kennedy assassination being "proved" is a bit off the mark. There never was a FULL investigation about the assassination and the act could have been undertaken by many "agencies" possibly even the international bankers in retaliation of his Executive Order No: 11110 - as just one example.
Also we have not have INDEPENDANT and ON OATH investigations on the TWA 800 incident, 9/11 indicent in New York, the (alledged) suicide of Dr. Kelly or the 7th July 2005 incident in London.
The reason why we have not had such INDEPENDANT investigations is (surely) because some people in "authority" have something to hide. Exactly the same in the Lockerbie Disaster incident.
Too much information and eye witness accounts of all the aforementioned incidents have come to light showing that the "authorities" conclusions are unfounded and basically an impossibility. Far too much is being hidden behind Government "Spin".
THE PEOPLE DEMAND THE TRUTH.
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#62 Coineach
"THE PEOPLE DEMAND THE TRUTH"
Alas, they seldom do.
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Could it be that al-Megrahi has dropped his appeal simply because to go ahead with it may mean him spending days or weeks in a court room attending the appeal proceedings at a time when he'd rather be with his family?
Should al-Megrahi be released, as a compassionate person I'd say yes, I'd hope our society can show more compassion than any terrorist has ever shown their victims.
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I think the comments by Paul McBride should be considered alongside the case of Gary McKinnon - the British hacker with asperger's syndrome who is set to be extradited to the US after a recent appeal to keep him in the UK failed in the high courts.
I seem to recall elements of the Conservative Party and the Tory Press calling for the UK Government to show some backbone and stand up to the US Government's demand.
What we have here, with the Megrahi case, is exactly that; a Scottish Government, with a mandate, exercising it's sovereign right to make it's own decisions within it's own justice system. It's refreshing to see the Scottish Government doing exactly what it should be doing; making decisions despite pressure from external and internal sources.
The Scottish Government is to be applauded; if only the Westminster Government showed similar backbone, then we wouldn't have seen fiascos such as Iraq, the economic crisis etc etc
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I see Tam Dayell has opened his mouth. He blew all his respect out of the window with the MP expenses scandal.
65. At 4:40pm on 15 Aug 2009, Blind_Captain:
I can see your point trying to compare McKinnon, but it will not wash with those against the release. If fact, there is no similar comparison that can be used that will have any significant impact.
Your post describes perfectly the problem that Alex Salmond has sitting on his doorstep: it is the Scottish Government making the decision. And if Megrahi is released, they will be accused of upsetting international relations with the US for starters, and will also face the accusation of being soft on terrorists.
Believe me, the media is going to hammer the SNP over this. And this time they cannot throw it back, since Labour are not part of the argument in the eyes of those members of the public who are against the release.
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#66 Neil_Small147
"the media is going to hammer the SNP over this"
Probably. However, they have been doing that for the past many years, and it doesn't seem to have dented the SNP's popularity.
It doesn't matter what the diehard Unionists think, as their votes are already fixed. Much more important to know what ex(?) Labour like derek barker think.
As to the media, their level of journalistic skill depends on what is being carried on the UK political media sites they subscribe to, like Politics Home. Hence the Herald having "American TV show debates if NHS is gateway for Muslim terrorists" as front page news today - a show which was broadcast in 2007.
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67. At 6:36pm on 15 Aug 2009, oldnat wrote:
#66 Neil_Small147
"the media is going to hammer the SNP over this"
Probably. However, they have been doing that for the past many years, and it doesn't seem to have dented the SNP's popularity.
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I think it's more serious than that to be honest. Of course, much will depend on the skill of the media.
But Alex Salmond has already made one mistake with his street protests in Kilmarnock, a rare lack of judgement.
Both of these will be played for all their worth come the by-election.
But, that is speculation since the Justice Secretary has yet to make a decision.
Don't yet me wrong here, I'm not criticising the actions of the Justice Secretary here, but describing what I feel is going to happen.
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#68 Neil_Small147
You are still looking at these from a British viewpoint.
If Diageo can break the link between Johnny Walker and Kilmarnock then we are one the slippery slope to comodity whisky made in China, like all the different beers coming from the same brewery or petrols from the same refinery. All Wee Eck needs to do is to run a bill tightening the definition of Scotch whisky through the pretendy wee and Diageo will come to heel. It's not an electronics firm, it's part of who Scots are.
As for al-Megrahi, it's Scottish justice and if MI5 and the CIA have been mixing it, tough. Foreign affairs are Westminster's reservation, Kenny must do what is right for the Scottish justice system. Remember the US relatives have had their blood money, they have no further claim.
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#69 handclapping
"All Wee Eck needs to do is to run a bill tightening the definition of Scotch whisky through the pretendy wee and Diageo will come to heel."
One slight problem. "tightening the definition of Scotch whisky" affects competition, and is a power reserved to the UK. There's nothing to stop Jim Murphy pushing such a measure through Westminster - but don't hold your breath for his doing anything, as opposed to mouthing off.
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In whose interest would it be to whip up a frenzy about Kenny MacAskill?
To have acres of outraged newsprint and even calls for his resignation over a decision he has yet to make?
Megrahi can be released in one of two ways
1. On compassionate grounds ( if medical experts deem that he has less than three months to live) because he is terminally ill.
2. Under the Libyan prisoner transfer agreement which was put in place specifically for Megrahi under Blair and Brown.
If MacAskill does release him I think it will be on compassionate grounds but he is awaiting delivery of up to date medical reports from Greenock prison. If he does decide to release him it will be done under standard rules.
While he waits for the report the press frenzy is becoming near hysterical and the unionist gloating masquerading as concern for MacAskill's difficult choice is as predictable as one would expect.
I agree with Brownedov that the deafening silence from Skeletor , London's man in Scotland is a little peculiar. It's not like him not to interfere if there's advantage in it for Labour. He must have got the word from global to keep schtum . Maybe Jan the pensioner from the borders who gave him a right good rollicking on the radio on Wed about his £162 000 salary plus perks for performing a non existent job has stunned him into silence.
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69. At 7:14pm on 15 Aug 2009, handclapping:
I'm not having a go at him for trying to save jobs, it's the way he has gone about it. Freescale closed with more job losses in East Kilbride - modern tech industry and not a peep out of him - or anyone else for that matter. He could and should have left the "outraged on the streets" to the local SNP people and maintained a dignifed approach from Holyrood. Instead, other people who are losing their jobs wonder what is so special about Kilmarnock.
You are forgetting that most people read/see/hear what they want to. And if you are losing your job in another industry then you would be sitting there wondering why the First Minister is not trying to actively save your jobs.
I understand his reasons. But he's made an error and it is already being played upon. Opposition parties want to see job losses in Scotland, because the governing party always gets the blame.
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70. At 7:37pm on 15 Aug 2009, oldnat wrote:
#69 handclapping
"All Wee Eck needs to do is to run a bill tightening the definition of Scotch whisky through the pretendy wee and Diageo will come to heel."
One slight problem. "tightening the definition of Scotch whisky" affects competition,
Would that not also cause problems with EU competition laws? Probably not but unsure here.
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As to Lockerbie, it doesn't whether relatives have got their "blood money" or not. The principles of justice still apply. They have more right than anyone to have their say here, and they won't be quietened.
Been reading a few US news networks online, and while they are reserving comment at present, the focus has been on Hilary Clinton's communications with the Justice Secretary.
71. At 7:48pm on 15 Aug 2009, GrassyKnollington wrote:
In whose interest would it be to whip up a frenzy about Kenny MacAskill?
The Labour Party's. They are itching for a big scalp and they feel that they might get one. But a touch premature here.
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Bomber 'treated like a celebrity'
Does the BBC not realise that by using a header like that they are dragging themselves as being no better than the "Gutter Press" putting a spin on a story rather than publishing an unbiased view which is what we as forced paying punters expect. Their days are certainly numbered when they wish to play that game.
Neil I am led to believe that a majority of the British victims families wish to see the truth rather than be compliant in incarcerating a person who could be totally innocent as they have consciences which is missing in Westminster circles.
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#72 Neil_Small147
So you are a believer that if we could find Mary Bell we should still torment her for her murders?
A crime was committed, an investigation took place, people were tried for the offence and one was convicted. Compensation was paid. What more do you want from Justice, hanging, torture, drawing and quartering?
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Comment 73 - cynicalHighlander:
The use of single quotes is a practice that as been abused by the Scottish press since 2007.
It basically allows them to headline a lie with impunity. However they must then ensure that the actual facts of a story are covered within the article. You will see many such stories involving the SNP headlined in this manner.
The BBC like The Herald have now adopted this practice and have lost much of their credibility as a result.
Occasionally a paper will make a mistake and omit the single quotes, as was the case with The Scotsman when they headlined their version of the infamous 'divide by zero' set up.
The Scotsman was forced to issue a correction by the PCC after this - although not an apology.
There is currently a complaint being heard by the PCC resulting from the Sunday Herald's use of the phrase 'pulled a gun' to describe a BBC news item filmed by David Kerr, the SNP candidate for Glasgow North East, when once a BBC reporter.
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The Megrahi situation has already been used by Labour. Their MSP Richard Baker issued the usual press statement after MacAskill met with Megrahi.
Scottish Unionist politicians together with the Scottish media are already circling like vultures - they believe they can smell easy meat.
Trump anyone? (The Scotsman are currently publishing extracts from Trump Series 8 - it's got more mileage than 'Lost').
Let's hope there's a sting in the Megrahi tail for them.
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The fly in the ointment to suppress the truth into Lockerbie:
Dr Jim Swire (Daughter Flora was on the flight):
"To take action against the Crown Office under Human Rights legislation, since I now believe that the Crown Office has deliberately obstructed my rights to know who killed my daughter and why she was not protected, and continues to do so," and
- "To seek annulment of the findings of the Lockerbie Fatal Accident Inquiry [of 1990] on grounds of withholding of evidence about Heathrow, and then to seek a new FAI or legitimate equivalent in its place."
The evidence that was withheld was the fact that Pan-Am's luggage holding at Heathrow was broken into 17 hours before the ill fated flight took off from there. Dr Swire believes that this is when the bomb was planted.
Dr Swire also believes that Megrahi is completely inncent and should be freed.
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@72, Neil_Small147 wrote:
"As to Lockerbie, [...] relatives [...] have more right than anyone to have their say here..."
The bereaved relatives have NO 'rights' in the matter, hence the distinction between public and private law.
Whilst the administration of American justice may be predicated upon how loudly affected parties wail - the concept of a 'victim impact statement' is anathema to any interested in an civilised legal system - such that the 'dregs of humanity' and considered to be of no worth, the Scottish legal tradition treats a case on its MERITS.
Of course, the bases of the original conviction (and indeed the crimes themselves) are OF NO CONSEQUENCE in determining whether or not to exercise COMPASSION.
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Fresh from his all but ignored trip into darkest Greenock, Iain Gray has decide ot's time to use another unfortunate death in order to create a headline.
Gray uses the example of toddler Brandon Muir in order to launch yet another nutty policy. This time Labour are demanding that children of addicts be taken into care.
Not sure if this has been costed, but along with the jailing of anyone caught with a knife then this would require a helluva lot of cash.
Probably pay for it with their new property tax and the increased income from those people improving their homes.
The Monster Raving Labour Party was born in Scotland on this day - 2009.
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74. At 9:43pm on 15 Aug 2009, handclapping wrote:
#72 Neil_Small147
So you are a believer that if we could find Mary Bell we should still torment her for her murders?
A crime was committed, an investigation took place, people were tried for the offence and one was convicted. Compensation was paid. What more do you want from Justice, hanging, torture, drawing and quartering?
Mary Bell is a very poor example. She was a young girl with mental health problems.
What a lot of the victims' relatives want is for him to stay in jail, regardless of his health.
Using your method, then if Peter Sutcliffe or Ian Huntley paid money to the victims' families, you would be happy to see them released?
Ignoring politics and law, the point is that for many relatives of murder victims, having the perpetrator kept in jail is part of the healing process. Having them released can reopen old wounds and cause distress. Money does not solve everything. Speak to anyone who works in counselling.
#76 online_ed
A good lawyer would blow that evidence out of the water, as it would only be speculation. It would be a valid reason for witholding evidence. Then again, the question would be asked why it was witheld, as it could have caused problems for the prosecution as well.
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maybe I've missed it ,but is your man from the govan law centre not conspicuous by his absence? It is not like him, to have nothing to say!
Look forward to the "Sundays" take on this as it has truly split the nation.
Sid.
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Pity the poor Scottish media - fresh from a week where they confidently claimed that Megrahi would be released next week, it turns out that the decision may not be announced until next month.
The Unionist politicians and the media have been firing at a mirage this past week and have been made to look foolish.
Opposition parties last night said that MacAskill needed to explain what was going on to the Scottish Parliament.
Now they have taken to stamping their collective feet and have taken the huff. MacAskill follows due process and Unionists start to squeal.
He isn't playing the game thst they set up after all.
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#75. Online_Ed
I have just heard on BBC Scotland reading that exact same headline with no quotes audible!
Al-Megrahi’s release ‘would free BP’ to join the rush for Libya’s oil
"The release of the Lockerbie bomber from prison would liberate Britain’s largest industrial company from a string of problems hampering its $900 million (£546 million) Libyan gas projects, industry sources claimed last night."
Shows how oil/energy is saviour to peace on earth as it removes the anxiety of politicians.
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The Megrahi affair entered the Scottish parliament with an emergency debate (correct term?) called by the First Minister.
Can the same not be instigated given the extraordinary circumstances of this and the kneejerk calls by Unionist MSP's for MacAskill to give a statement?
Be interesting to see what would happen if this could be voted on - release on compassionate grounds or not.
Would Labour have the balls to vote against releasing this dying man given what is at stake vis-a-vis UK/Lybian business relations?
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#83 Online_Ed
I've started to wonder if this isn't a clever piece of work by the Scottish Government.
Release a suggestion that Megrahi might be released on compassionate grounds very soon (via a leak), allow a localised media storm (this story has no legs in England), then allow the prisoner transfer as arranged by UK Labour - perhaps this is why Murphy is unusually keeping his mouth shut.
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83. At 11:18pm on 15 Aug 2009, Online_Ed wrote:
The Megrahi affair entered the Scottish parliament with an emergency debate (correct term?) called by the First Minister.
Can the same not be instigated given the extraordinary circumstances of this and the kneejerk calls by Unionist MSP's for MacAskill to give a statement?
Be interesting to see what would happen if this could be voted on - release on compassionate grounds or not.
Would Labour have the balls to vote against releasing this dying man given what is at stake vis-a-vis UK/Lybian business relations?
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Nice idea, but it won't happen, since the Scottish Parliament would be accused of meddling with legal matters.
The only person who can make the decision is the Justice Secretary.
77. At 10:57pm on 15 Aug 2009, Carrots are not the only vegetables:
I said they have more right than anyone to voice an opinion, not make the legal decision.
80. At 11:03pm on 15 Aug 2009, sidthesceptic wrote:
maybe I've missed it ,but is your man from the govan law centre not conspicuous by his absence? It is not like him, to have nothing to say!
Look forward to the "Sundays" take on this as it has truly split the nation.
Sid.
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Just go an read the Have Your Say on the BBC to see how divided everyone is.
And it looks like things will drag on for weeks.
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84. At 11:43pm on 15 Aug 2009, oldnat wrote:
#83 Online_Ed
I've started to wonder if this isn't a clever piece of work by the Scottish Government.
Release a suggestion that Megrahi might be released on compassionate grounds very soon (via a leak), allow a localised media storm (this story has no legs in England), then allow the prisoner transfer as arranged by UK Labour - perhaps this is why Murphy is unusually keeping his mouth shut.
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Your post was awaiting moderation hence my double post.
I was going to suggest this yesterday, but didn't as I thought I'd be shot down in flames.
But it is a tactic used by Governments, usually to test the waters on new policies. The Scottish Government might be using this not to try and wrongfoot Labour, but to see what the public and political reaction might be.
Assuming it is a deliberate leak, then the Tories have fallen for it, judging my McBride's remarks (I've had a little read spartans11, and I see what you mean!).
But the whole thing has gained momentum, and whoever started the story has lost control.
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Re Carrots
Magrahi didn't show any compassion to his victims. It is easy to confuse blind faith in a politician with the hard facts, he has been proven guilty in a court of the bombing. 290 people lost their lives, many families have been left distraught by his actions.
The fact he is probably going to drop his appeal seems to send a strong signal to me.
Re Greenock boy
You present a never ending ability to apply double standards to any issue.
Kenny has dithered on this, I originally felt sorry for him, but the more this issue drags on the less I feel for his predicament in making what is a difficult decision.
Compassion seems to be completely lost here, this is a dirty game of politics, of the most odious kind. I don't want a statement from the man, I would like him to make an honest decision and make his reasons clear for doing so. Stop leaking to the press, stop treating the electorate like they are stupid and just say I have decided the following and my reasons are.
The electorate would respect this, but the impression created in the media is of a government dithering and being led by events having lost control of the issue.
This is truly an inept display by the SNP government and shows the level of principal applied is no different from any other politician.
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#86 Neil_Small147
The UK press are not running with this issue. Scotland on Sunday has nothing on this. The Sunday Herald has
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2525752.0.holyrood_set_to_back_calls_for_lockerbie_public_inquiry.php
"The Scottish government is likely to back a comprehensive public inquiry into the Lockerbie disaster after all legal proceedings are resolved. First minister Alex Salmond's administration is said to be "very relaxed" about either a United Nations probe or a joint inquiry between Holyrood and Westminster into the terrorist atrocity."
The Sunday Times Scotland article
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6797172.ece
suggests that vested interests are quite happy for no investigation to take place (which is probably true).
Momentum is slackening on this story, as only the Tories seem to be making much of it.
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#87 northhighlander
"principle not "principal"
"the impression created in the media". Which media - how, what, where, when and why?
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Labour in the Scottish Parliament stop being idiots!
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2525738.0.labour_ensures_minimum_of_fuss_for_alcohol_bill.php
They seem finally to have come to terms with being the opposition, and might have stopped sulking. Maybe, because they now accept that next year they will be in opposition in Westminster as well?
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Re 89 old nat
Spelling is less important than retired teachers think, I assume that you are unwilling to examine the government performance on this issue, by the time you are resorting to spelling lessons.
Look in google and read how this is being seen across the media. As another poster said the story is out of control.
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#91 Northhighlander ...this has only gotten out of hand because Megrahi is conveniently dying and the truth may never be heard. Had his second retrial gone ahead it would have been a mess for everybody had he been found innocent. The Americans can mouth off all they want because they have a lot to hide and cant really loose if Magrahi passes away this week. I say send him home to Libya because if he truly is innocent then the least that can be done is let him die with his family.
#88 Oldnat ...that first link has quotes by Henry Mcleish. Is it just me or has anybody else noticed that Henry has been agreeing with a lot of what the SNP government have been doing. Is he perhaps a closet nationalist ?
Paul McBride ...'The QC, who advises the Conservative party on law and order, said: "Megrahi is being treated well by the Scottish Government, he is being feted as almost a celebrity " '..exactly how is he treated well or a celebrity.. the man is dying in jail and may be innocent. Notice the total silence from Murphy or Global Gordon about this as they dont want to upset the good ol US'A.
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#84 oldnat
"Release a suggestion that Megrahi might be released on compassionate grounds very soon (via a leak), allow a localised media storm (this story has no legs in England), then allow the prisoner transfer as arranged by UK Labour - perhaps this is why Murphy is unusually keeping his mouth shut."
We're certainly on the same wavelength there, and the Sunday Times' Majority do not support Megrahi release suggests that's the smart option with another poll of 1,040 Scots, with opinion split 49% stay in Scottish jail, 40% transfer to Libyan jail and 11% free on compassionate grounds.
Oddly, the poll was carried out in June "and could not be reported until now for legal reasons". I know there are rules about poll information on election days but I hope there's a lawyer here who can explain what the grounds could be in a situation like this.
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Ian Bell's He’s dying: does it matter where? in the Sunday Herald is in stark contrast to the rest of the media including the BBC. Amongst many good points he makes I particularly commend his:
"In a Britain that proposes to extradite diagnosed Asperger's victims to satisfy US paranoia over computer hacking, with no hope of reciprocity, MacAskill is a small beacon of sanity."
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Comment 87 from northhighlander demonstrates the Unionist annoyance at the fact that the feast they expected to be served up may not now appear.
Due process and deliberation is described as "dithering" and "truly an inept display by the SNP government".
So, MacAskill probably isn't going to release Megrahi in the timescale that Scottish Unionists had hoped ... and boy are they mad.
Meanwhile The Sunday Herald are now showing 'repeats' of the latest Trump series first shown on The Scotsman.
I'm off for a week - no internet access!! However I do feel a little better about this affair.
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#91 northhighlander
"Look in google and read how this is being seen across the media. As another poster said the story is out of control."
You're correct that the BBC's original "scoop" is now out of control in the media, but MacAskill and the Scottish government have had the sense not confirm it, and the abandonment of the appeal suggests there may still be a twist or two left in the tale.
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#70 oldnat
"One slight problem. "tightening the definition of Scotch whisky" affects competition, and is a power reserved to the UK."
Agreed that reservation C3 on Competition of the Scotland Act specifically reserves: "Regulation of anti-competitive practices and agreements; abuse of dominant position; monopolies and mergers." but it's likely the C7 and C8 reservations on "Consumer protection" and "Product standards, safety and liability" which are more relevant, unless whisky can be argued to be "food" for the purposes of trade descriptions, misleading and comparative advertising or product labelling.
If it can, introduction of formal classification standards and product labelling should do the trick. It's hard to see on what grounds NuLab would oppose such classification in the interest of Scottish enterprise. If they don't oppose it, would they not find it difficult to avoid passing the legislation at Westmidden if necessary?
#72 Neil_Small147
"Would that not also cause problems with EU competition laws?"
From the EU's support of the improvement of classification and labelling standards in the wine and olive oil industries in Italy, Spain and newer EU members, I think it highly unlikely.
The Swiss are still smarting over the French success in preventing the wine-making commune of Champagne in the North of Canton Vaud from labelling its wine properly for export. This was part of the 1998 EU treaty with Switzerland, and wrangled on in the international courts until 2007. See the Indy's French in a fizz over wine from Swiss Champagne for the basic facts in English.
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92. At 08:21am on 16 Aug 2009, ubinworryinmasheep wrote:
#91 Northhighlander ...this has only gotten out of hand because Megrahi is conveniently dying and the truth may never be heard. Had his second retrial gone ahead it would have been a mess for everybody had he been found innocent. The Americans can mouth off all they want because they have a lot to hide and cant really loose if Magrahi passes away this week. I say send him home to Libya because if he truly is innocent then the least that can be done is let him die with his family.
I think you have to look at the American perspective here. Most of the people "mouthing off" are relatives, not government officials.
And Libya is still a bad boy to most Americans. So anything Hilary Clinton says will carry a lot of weight.
What I don't understand is why it is taking so long to make a decision. Surely the Justice Secretary has the medical evidence to ponder (unless the NHS computer system has eaten the records!). He's spent time in discussion with all interested parties so he must be able to make an informed decision regardless of the media flak.
My own personal take on the whole saga is that the original intention was to release Megrahi under compassionate grounds. Makes the Scottish Government look good - like it or not politicians use every opportunity to get votes, SNP included. (Read Tom Clancy's books, where an advisor to the new president half-jokingly tells him he could do with a natural disaster to improve his popularity).
However, it appears that there was a deliberate leak - who it was now is anybody's guess. If it was the SNP, they've lost control. It could have been by someone in the Government with access to the information. It could have been by one of the opposition parties.
No-one now has control of the story.
Releasing him will open trade links to Libya, which will be of benefit to Scotland as well. Salmond wants more influence in the global oil business, as does Westminster.
But releasing him might upset the US Government, and that for the Scottish Government is politically embarrassing.
Keeping him in upsets a few of the liberal lobby, but is not going to cause any damage in Scotland. It will also kill off the story. Keeps the US Government happy, but probably screws up the trade with Libya.
Glad I'm not making the decision.......
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@93, northhighlander wrote:
"Spelling is less important than retired teachers think"
Gnaw, Ur rang they're. Been A-ball 2 spill ess kneaded tae meek share a-body kin ken whit Ur on a-boot.
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In complete contrast to Ian Bell's article linked to in my #94 is this website's 'Let Lockerbie case reach an end' where Alistair Bonnington tells us that he was there at Camp Zeist where everything was above board and that it would be a waste of resources to investigate the matter further.
What he doesn't tell us, which can be verified by a quick search of http://www.scotland.gov.uk/ is that he was "Solicitor in Scotland to the BBC" before being appointed to the "Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission" in December 1998. How unusual for the kettle to call the kettle white.
After his "analysis" of "a bizarre array of conspiracy buffs" and "Lockerbie nutters" Bonnington tells us that: "These characters emerge from their sad backrooms every time the Lockerbie Trial is in the news. This time is no different."
And state apologists too, it would appear.
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Well, I'm off now - but just before I go have a look at the following article if you want to see how the Unionist media in Scotland hope to portray the Megrahi affair.
click here
The Sunday Mail is also worth a look!!
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If it was the SNP, they've lost control.
Yes Neil ..... anything you say.
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re 87 north highlander. - dropping his appeal sends a strong signal to me as well ,pity it is nothing like the signal your getting.
as i have said before getting the appeal dropped ensures all the secrets can be protected and all us plebs will never find out the truth.
this was a definite kite flying exercise by the Scottish Government which they could never have expected to be as successful as it has turned out to be. some reporters within BBC Scotland just can't help themselves and just in case they still don't get it **** you have been played like a fiddle big time,taking your blinkers off now and again might help,same goes for you north highlander
Sid
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@91, northhighlander wrote:
"Spelling is less important than retired teachers think"
Not so.
My commnt at #99 attempted to make the point by deliberately misspelling almost every word, and it has now been 'referred to the moderators'.
Rehearsing it aloud would have made it entirely understandable, but for the written word to be understood, it is eminently desirable to conform to 'normal' spelling; besides which, it is rude (and shows disrespect to your 'audience').
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#98 Neil i understand that the relatives of the victims of the Lockerbie disaster would be upset by Megrahi being released early but the thing is its only in the spotlight because he is going to die. Had his retrial gone ahead he might have been released anyway. It might be because he might die before the end of his sentence that they feel robbed of justice. Those same relatives should look at what their own country has been getting away with the last 50 years. Did America pay compensation to the family of the passengers on the Iranian airliner that was shot out of the sky. Was anyone prosecuted for that one. No i'll bet America just said oops tough luck.
Somebody else has pointed out that America wants it all their own way and will bully anybody who doesnt toe the line. Look at Gary Mckinnon, why can he not be tried in Britain. They want to make a big example of him and its all a big show to make them look tough. Look at Gauntanamo Bay where they whipped suspected terrorists away with no trial and no date for release. Ok some of those people may have been the worst terrorists there is but some have been released with no charge. I've only ever read one Noam Chomsky book - Rogue States (boy was it hard going) but in it he points out that one of the reasons that Saddam Hussain invaded Kuwait was because he saw his allies (America) invading countries like Panama and undermining governments in South America in general and thought it was ok for him to do the same.
http://alspolitics1.blogspot.com/2005/05/is-america-worlds-bully.html
Whilst i feel sorry for the families of any terrorist attack they have been compensated and the man is probably going to die soon so its not like he will go back to Libya and have a big party. Justice (from the point of view he is guilty) will have been done.
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#101 Online_Ed
Bon voyage and thanks for the SoS link, which is doubtless representative of more to come. They can say "If Alex Salmond and Kenny MacAskill have indeed brokered a deal with Libya, with or without the complicity of the UK government, any such stitch-up is likely to backfire on them dramatically" and expect all of the blame to fall on the SNP and the unionist media will likely follow, but I'm not personally not convinced that public memory will be quite so short as to forget Bliar's cosying up to Libya let alone Duff Gordon's recent repetition.
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#93 Brownedov
The Times poll was conducted by Cello MRUK, who are not members of the British Polling Council (although they claim to work to BPC standards). The Megrahi questions seem to have been part of their monthly Scottish Consumer Omnibus, which is essentially a market research poll on which customers can "piggy back" their own questions cheaply.
Their track record on political questions has been poor and criticised by both Political Betting and UK Polling Report.
Like you, I fail to understand the point about "legal issues" since the obvious one is his appeal and while he has applied to drop it, the Court won't rule on that application till Tuesday.
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As far as I can see this is an unholy mess that has been punted into the long grass for too long. The only resolution that will bring credit to Scotland and its legal system is one that can be shown to be above political interference (sad then that a politician has to make it. Does that not tell us there is something awry with our legal system?).
I don't know what that resolution is, but if he is about to die, show compassion, that might send a much more important message to some quarters. If he is himself playing politics, then let him rot in jail in greenock. If he is just a pawn in a game of politics, then there is a decision to be made, and as long as it is made for the best reasons then it should stand up. Justice has to be blind and impartial (or am I being too niave here?).
I hate this sort of politics as it's peoples' lives that are being played with
John
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northhighlander
From #9 to #87 in 48 hours is precisely the kneejerk politics I think we should avoid in this case. Difficult decisions take time, all feverish speculation and statements are not coming from the Scottish Government.
I see the standard of journalism from Scotland on Sunday sinks even lower. They say backroom deals will no longer be tolerated, but ignore the dealings of Blair and Brown with Libya. By giving the issue superficial scturiny they allow such deals to be made by failing to hold politicians accountable. As Deep Throat told Woodward and Bernstein - follow the money. If the SoS really believes the Scottish Government are about to do a deal, why will the money trail lead straight to the coffers of The UK Government? Which scottish oil company will benefit? In what way will Scotland benefit?
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109. At 1:51pm on 16 Aug 2009, spartans11:
A bit rich from the media to say such deals will no longer be tolerated, when the media makes more backroom deals than anyone else.
But backroom deals have always been and always will be part of politics and diplomacy.
All Governments will publicly state they are above board, but they all carry out the deals behind closed doors, which at times are necessary.
I'm also wondering if the Tories are keen to keep this news in the headlines, bearing in mind Cameron is under a lot of pressure thanks to two of his party members: one moaning about his expenses being cut and the other having a pop at the NHS.
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#107 oldnat
Thanks for the info - I don't recall coming across Cello MRUK before. From their website's Scottish Consumer Omnibus whence their rates/schedule PDF can be obtained, we can see that the deadline for the Sunday Times' two questions was 28 May, that the fieldwork was from 5 to 11 June and that they probably paid about £1,000 for the results.
My guess would be that they planned to release the results in their 21 June article sub-titled Lord Fraser says alleged transfer of timer to FBI lab would have compromised the Lockerbie bomb trial, which also discusses al-Megrahi's appeal, health and possible transfer to Libyan custody.
I suppose you're right that the "obvious" legal issue is the appeal, but in that case late next Tuesday should be the release time and then only if the dropping of the appeal is agreed. Were a jury involved, it would be obvious that they should not see the results of the question on al-Megrahi's guilt [60% guilty, 9% innocent, 31% unsure], but the poll seems most unlikely to influence their learned lordships here.
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#110 Neil_Small
Totally agree, everybody does them, Trades Unions, political parties, businesses etc.
I just find it ridiculous that a "quality" newspaper can produce such a poor Leader Comment, no wonder their circulation figures are dropping.
Hilary Clintons statement is no more or less than expected. America would like to get closer to Libyas oil reserves and this is a sticking point they wish to go away but can't say so publicly. Backroom deals or Realpolitik, whatever name you call it, is the way of the world. I only have a problem with it when someone abuses this for personal gain at the public expense. Any other way of working would involve referendums every other day
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#112 spartans11
"Any other way of working would involve referendums every other day"
And why would that be such a problem? In the real democracy of Switzerland, they simply reserve one Sunday per quarter for voting of all sorts: communal, cantonal and federal referendum questions and elections.
So what if you had to answer 50 yes/no questions per quarter? The Swiss regard it as a very small price to pay for controlling their politicians rather than being controlled by them.
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I see that the Lockerbie HYS was closed this morning with 675 comments unpublished and 694 rejected. I hope that's not going to happen here - at least before we've had chance to comment on what happens in the High Court of Justiciary and Appeals next week.
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@113, Brownedov wrote:
"In the real democracy of Switzerland, they simply reserve one Sunday per quarter for voting of all sorts: communal, cantonal and federal referendum questions and elections."
What a good idea!
Or so it might at first appear.
What would tend to worry me a little is that if so many issues are determined by asking 'the people,' the politicians need not espouse policies, or indeed hold any political views whatever; on any given contentious issue, the politician could simply say, 'I propose a referendum to ascertain the will of the people.'
For all its faults, parliamentary democracy (which the UK has, at least notionally) is a principled concept based upon representation rather than delegation.
If every issue of note was to be referred back to the people, we may as well elect only an executive (HM Government in a non-party form) - to determine the policies upon which referenda will be held - and abolish Parliament altogether.
That itself is an idea not devoid of merit, but unless turkeys start voting for Christmas, I cannot see today's breed of career politician doing anything change the current gravy train.
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#115 Carrots are not the only vegetables
"What a good idea! Or so it might at first appear."
It does require the individual to take more responsibility than voting once every for four or five years for a "representative" to make the decisions for you. The Swiss are bright enough, well educated enough and have a sufficiently balanced media to be able to make those decisions for themselves. While I have no doubts about the "bright enough", I grant that work needs to be done in both the latter areas before the same could be said of the Scots or the rest of the UK.
"unless turkeys start voting for Christmas, I cannot see today's breed of career politician doing anything change the current gravy train"
True. But current ideas being floated even by the Tories on recall elections, directly elected mayors and local referendums are a definite step in the right direction. The Scottish concept of popular sovereignty should allow those ideas to be developed further for the future.
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#115 Carrots are not the only vegetables
"we may as well elect only an executive ... to determine the policies upon which referenda will be held"
PS to my #116
Swiss governments at communal, cantonal and federal levels don't even get to choose the referendum topics - any group of about 2% of the relevant electorate can call a referendum on any topic. Doesn't mean that there is a shortage of candidates for election, though, but simply of "professional" politicians.
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#117, Brownedov wrote:
"... any group of about 2% of the relevant electorate can call a referendum on any topic."
The idea of the people 'dictating' policy to the politicians - with Government as servant, rather than master, of the populace - does sound wonderful, and I suspect that the calibre of politician is markedly improved as a result (personal ambition becoming somewhat subservient to the improvement of society as a whole).
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#113 Brownedov
Interesting concept and certainly one I would like to see explored further, thanks for the info. It would definitely clip the wings of our political class
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#118 Carrots are not the only vegetables
"The idea of the people 'dictating' policy to the politicians - with Government as servant, rather than master, of the populace - does sound wonderful"
I wouldn't quite go that far - they do get to execute policy and are obviously well-placed to influence it. It's more a matter of their "knowing their place" than anything else.
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#84 oldnat
"I've started to wonder if this isn't a clever piece of work by the Scottish Government ... perhaps this is why Murphy is unusually keeping his mouth shut."
This website's Call made for Lockerbie statement rather suggests that NuLab have blinked first, with Baker, their justice spokesman, calling for "an urgent statement to Parliament on the future of the Lockerbie bomber" and claiming "We need clarity now and some answers".
Why? The appeal is still on-going just now, Westmidden have made no formal request for Holyrood to transfer anyone and only the BBC know where they got their "scoop" from anyway.
Could be an interesting week ahead, and at the very least the Scottish government now have a very much clearer picture than they did this time last week.
I'm still surprised at the Skeletor's new-found Trappism, though.
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#121 Brownedov
Only one thing has actually happened. Megrahi has asked the Court of Justiciary to cancel his appeal against sentence.
Everything else is speculation.
However Murphy's silence suggests that the UK Government has no interest in making waves over this.
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This is extremely difficult for everyone involved. Not least the convicted, the Justice Minister and the victims families.
However- we are to consider if compassionate release is to happen, not argue whether or not he is guilty or not. This is a seperate issue; but one which rightly ought to continue alonside compassionate release.
As SNP MSP Christine Grahame said- it is unacceptable if the issue of compassionate release based on his imminent death is mixed/confused asto his innocence or guilt. One does not neccessitate any admission either way.
Or simply put- if we talkj of releasing him on compassionate grounds the issue is if he is three months to death or three weeks. If we manipulate that the convicted admitts his guilt (by dropping his appeal) we are conflating the two. And this is against the spirit of Scots laws' notion of justice.
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I despair of the Herald's "journalism"
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2525825.0.Megrahi_awaits_decision_with_months_left_to_live.php
"It was reflected in a weekend poll of 1000 Scots" - Michael Settle is clearly unable to read, much less interpret the articles in other papers which he tries to use as evidence.
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Now we have some clarity.
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Hopes-dashed-for-indepth-inquiry.5558867.jp
"senior [uk] officials have ruled out supporting another investigation." although we know that the Scottish Government was keen to have a public enquiry.
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#124 oldnat
"Michael Settle is clearly unable to read, much less interpret the articles in other papers which he tries to use as evidence."
As you say, not exactly journalism at its finest. As it was the BBC who "broke" the story, you'd have thought he would have looked at this website and added Baker's rantings to those of McBride, if only to appeal to local audiences. Baker is mentioned in their unattributed MSP demands Megrahi debate, which repeats the "weekend poll" nonsense.
#125 oldnat
"Now we have some clarity."
Indeed. Much clearer, and slightly more balanced, even adding a little to Baker's complaint that the "case had been characterised by private briefings in the press" - something NuLab would never do, of course. If nothing else, they do seem to have read this website's Bonnington "analysis" and drawn reasonable conclusions from it. As so often in the Scotsman, the comments tell us as much or more than the article itself, particularly the unionist circling of the wagons in claiming that neither the Scottish nor the Westmidden governments want a proper enquiry when it is clear that only one of those parties would have anything to fear from the results.
A pity that both their leader We need answers now on Megrahi release - and then a full inquiry and Lesley Riddoch's Fate of Lockerbie bomber is not the key issue are both "Premium Articles" and thus not fully available. The comments on them suggest they may be worth a look.
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Re Spatans
I agree entirely that this decision needs to be taken in a calm and balanced way. I would hope that the difficult decision was based on what is right, morally and legally and not political expediency.
On the last thread it was I who first raised this point and I genuinely felt for Kenny Mackaskill, because this is a difficult decision that will never make everyone happy. It should be real moral dilemma, not a political one.
However recent events have led me to feel entirely differently. First Magrahi drops his appeal. Why? Was it anything to do with the justice secretary's visit? If Magrahi really feels he is innocent then why drop the appeal if a deal for his freedom has not been done? Why are there Libyans in Scotland to facilitate a release if no decision has been made? Who leaked the story to the BBC? It was leaked he would be home in time for the start of Ramadan now it appears this is not going to happen. Why is the decision now being delayed? Is this a reversal of the decision that hasn't been made yet?
Also the line that no decision has been made is obviously rubbish. Look at what is being reported, it is inconceivable that this amount of information was leaked from the Scottish Government with out them knowing. If not why no investigation? In truth events are now overtaking the SNP government and the situation is now a farce. It is an astonishing display of dithering and spinning, an unfortunate combination along with one of the weakest ministers in the government.
This is a real mess now that satisfies no-one. Even the SNP drones (Greenock Boy etc.) are finding it hard to spin this in a positive direction.
This stinks of political spin and manoeuvring in the best odious traditions of Nulab. I am minded of the old saying "the more things change the more they stay the same". Magrahi is no more than a pawn in a sordid game of politics with no-one wanting to be responsible for his release and vying to be able to place blame for the situation on someone else, that is to be expected form Westminster but the Scottish government tell us they aspire to better things, well in this case they are no better.
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Grown up politics need to be applied here. Libya has huge natural gas reserves and is being courted by both the Chinese and the Russians in an attempt to gain control over that gas. At the same time companies like BP are established players in Libya but are obviously under pressure.
We should not be doing anything that potentially jeapordises our relationship with Libya and the loss of that gas supply. I don't want to be in a situation in a few years time where Russia declares it's going to re-annexe the Baltic States and/or Georgia and if we interfere they'll cut off our gas supply.
It may not seem just but then life rarely is.
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Re 128 Wee scamp
What you are highlighting is a problem with energy policy, precisely why we should not be dependant on imported gas for electricity generation.
If we follow this logic then we will be at the whim of every foreign government we import energy from.
However Kenny Mackaskill needs to make a decision on he basis of compassionate release, I am sure he will not be defending UK interests!
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I don't think enough attention has been paid to the actions of the BBC in all of this. If we want political gibberish and tittle-tattle we can buy the Scotsman, we are forced to pay for the BBC. To report that something newsworthy will happen upto a week ahead is not factual, it is opinion whoever "told" the reporter. I'm sure it would have made a tabloid scoop just as Freddie Starr eat my hamster but this is the BBC.
What if the FT said that a senior government source had said that homes would be liable for CGT from next week? OK if it's the Express, we know there's an axe to grind and we can avoid buying the paper, but you can't avoid the BBC. I think the BBC, in view of its constiutional status, has to have a higher standard and here it has most definately slipped.
I know some senior figures in the SNP Government are in favour of the continuation of the BBC licence after independence, but I get the feeling that a lot of their actvists are not.
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#128 Wee Scamp
What is so grown up about being a money grabbing selfish ******d? Surely being grown up means mature reflection and the realisation that short term gains do not justify long term losses. After all is there not more to lost by destroying the credibility of the justice system than the possible short term gains of a single gas contract?
John
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Scottish Ministers hould take no lessons in administration of justice from a country (the US) which pursues the death penalty under ANY circumstances, or any which asserts the constitutional right so to do.
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#127 northhighlander
I'm more tended to follow Bonningtons reasoning on the appeal. A link for it is in #126. As for the rest, I'm aware the parties are playing politics with the issue, it's hard to stop them as they think that's their job. Undoubtedly someone has been briefing the press, but that's been normal procedure for the last 12 years so if the SNP want to use that tactic, I'm not all that bothered as long as we get a decision which can be justified as reasonable/compassionate.
I just want to be able to say I'm Scottish and we did the right thing in this case.
#128
If that's how you feel, check out how much gas we import and where it comes from. Very little if any of our gas actually comes from Russia, we are still self sufficient at the moment, but choose to import about 30% of our needs from Norway. We can produce as much gas as we require, what we can't do is store it. We export to Europe where it's stored then routed back as required. Our storage capacity is 2 or 3 days normal use. On the continent it's around 2 to 3 weeks or longer.
The Oil and Gas UK Economic Report 2009 notes that although considerable volumes are imported mainly from Norway, almost matching volumes are exported to a variety of countries. Don't believe the urban myths, check out the facts for yourself. Then you can see through the government spin and scare stories
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So Tavish Scot thinks the whole Megahi situation is being mishandled, just like some other MSPs. Well if thats what they think they should tell Kenny McAskil what he is doing wrong as well as the rest of us.
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#127 northhighlander
"Look at what is being reported, it is inconceivable that this amount of information was leaked from the Scottish Government with out them knowing."
But the entire "story" started with this website's Lockerbie bomber 'to be released', with no more evidence than the statement "the BBC understands" and refuted in the same post which admits that Scottish ministers described the "development" as "complete speculation". There are indeed difficult decisions ahead for the Scottish Government in general and MacAskill in particular, but increasing the pressure on and/or sharing the blame with them can only be to the benefit of the two main unionist parties who formed the UK governments at the key moments in this sorry saga spanning three decades. But, of course, the "impartial" BBC would do nothing to further the cause of the UK government or the unionist parties to the detriment of "separatists", would it?
"Why are there Libyans in Scotland to facilitate a release if no decision has been made?"
Given their leader's "chat" with Duff Gordon last month, the previous prisoner exchange deal negotiated between the UK and Libyan governments and the resumption this week of the appeal process, it seems entirely reasonable that Libyan officials should be in Scotland.
"This stinks of political spin and manoeuvring in the best odious traditions of Nulab."
Too true, but in what way could it benefit anyone but NuLab, with the possible exception of some Tories from the Thatcher/Major era?
"Magrahi is no more than a pawn in a sordid game of politics with no-one wanting to be responsible for his release and vying to be able to place blame for the situation on someone else"
We're agreed on the first part of that statement but absent clear proof the blame clearly lies with the UK government and, to a lesser extent, with the previous Scottish "Executive" for "managing" the affair in the way that they have.
#129 northhighlander
I don't dispute a word of that, but would add that Scotland and, to a lesser extent, Wales are much better placed in respect of energy self-sufficiency than England, who seem unwilling to invest in desperately needed tidal/wave renewables.
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#130 handclapping
Spot on and well said.
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One has to admire the sheer gall of this website's new Bomber ruling 'within two weeks'. While telling us that the "Scottish Government will deliver a decision on the fate of the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing within the next two weeks", presumably from the same spokeswoman who "said Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill had only received final submissions and advice on Friday", it mentions in passing that there "have also been reports that the Scottish Government intends to release him due to his health problems".
Can anyone recall who started those, er, "reports"?
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#137 Brownedov
"Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill had only received final submissions and advice on Friday"
As a matter of law (Prisoner and Criminal Proceedings (Scotland) Act 1993) the Justice Secretary must receive a report from the Parole Board - except in the most unusual circumstances.
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Re 135
Brownedov, Do you really believe the BBC stories were not given in off the record briefings to journalists by the government? Only the most ardent and blinkered nat would think that this was leaked without government knowledge.
The SNP Government has handled this badly. Kenny cares not for doing the what is right, he just wants to be able to blame someone else for Magrahis release. He underestimated the reaction and is now dithering.
As I understand the situation there will be no appeal as Magrahi wants to withdraw. Obviously some deal has been done, given Kenny went to visit him then one might reasonably expect that he is party to whatever deal has been done.
However I don't see any evidence that the SNP are likely to be more honest on this issue than NU LAB would have been.
If the deal was done in Westminster as you claim why is Kenny getting involved at all then?
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One must also admire the dogged statement of the noble First SoS that, following his meeting with Gaddafi's son while on holiday in Corfu, "subsequent reports of Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi's possible release from jail were 'entirely coincidental'" as reported in this website's Mandelson spoke to Gaddafi's son.
I wonder if Holmes would have considered that "an amazing coincidence", Brian?
Posting this in the knowledge that oldnat has probably "scooped" me, but modding delays seem to be increasing.
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YouGov Scottish sample is bigger than normal at 174 (pollsters seem to have doubled their sample size throughout the UK). With all the usual caveats about it not being adjusted for the Scottish demographic, the Westminster intentions are good for Lab/Con
Lab - 35% : SNP - 23% : Con 21% : LD 13%
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Interesting , is'nt it? With Gordon Brown gladhanding Ghaddafi a few weeks ago and Mandelson gladhanding his son, Jack Straw u-turning on Ronnie Biggs but our media will be frantic in its support of the US and Westminster stance.It will seek to discredit everything said or done by the Scottish SNP Government in an effort to fudge , yet again, the evidence.
Why? Why should the media of our small country be so intent on misleading the public?
Where are the brave men and women of the press ? Those who would dare to ferret out the truth?
I read today that David Milliband had landed himself in political trouble by saying something along the lines of , "sometimes terrorism is justifiable" First time in my life I've agreed with him!
Guy Fawkes where are you?
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Browndov your "amazing coincidence" in #140 presumably answers your #137
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#140 Brownedov
The scoop is all yours!
Given Mandelson's skills in the dark arts, one now has to wonder from which Government the leak to the BBC came!
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#131 John
Ask your kids in the middle of winter when the lights go out whether they believe it was worth keeping this poor bloke in jail in order to watch him die.
#129
I agree it's an issue of energy independence. Take it with Gordon Brown. His chum Malcolm Wicks (former energy minister) said recently that the UK was spending less than any other nation on energy R&D and what we do spend will have to cut back in a year or so.
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#138 oldnat
"As a matter of law ... the Justice Secretary must receive a report from the Parole Board"
Thanks. I didn't know that but it seems perfectly reasonable, and with the appeal process apparently going ahead the Parole Board may not have felt it appropriate to produce it too early. OTOH, it's hard to imagine that NuLab's "Scottish justice spokesman", the Tories' Paul McBride QC or L-D "justice spokesman" Robert Brown didn't know before sounding off about the issue to the media.
Moderation does seem very slow this afternoon - more than an hour for a posting at 14:52 BST is pretty unusual, especially with the Nick Robinson threads closed to comment.
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gov health warning to all unionists avert your eyes as a balanced and truthful account which could cause some serious symptoms.
Looking at Megrahi
gov health warning to all unionists avert your eyes as a balanced and a more truthful account which could cause some serious symptoms such as we could be out of touch.
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#139 northhighlander
"Do you really believe the BBC stories were not given in off the record briefings to journalists by the government?"
I'm not sure that even the Machiavellian Campbell would have got one spokesman to brief unattributably on a piece of spin while simultaneously getting another to brief that it is "complete speculation". If the Scottish Government has indeed done just that and out-Campbelled Campbell then I agree it would be scurrilous but your assertion is at best "not proven".
"Only the most ardent and blinkered nat would think that this was leaked without government knowledge."
I'll admit to being ardently anti-NuLab and leave it to others to decide if I'm blinkered, but I am not a Nationalist of any sort. As I have tried to explain before, I'm a localist wanting effective sovereignty to reside in the people at the most local level practicable, and I have roots in all three "mainland" nations. If the UK needs to split up to achieve democracy, so be it, but that is not my primary aim - home rule would do me as the next objective.
"Obviously some deal has been done, given Kenny went to visit him then one might reasonably expect that he is party to whatever deal has been done."
Possibly so - time will tell - but if the "deal" is political there was no need to see the prisoner, who we seem to agree is a pawn in all this. The deal would have been negotiated out of sight with Libyan officials. MacAskill's visit strikes me as more likely to have been a genuine desire to find out how ill the man really is.
"However I don't see any evidence that the SNP are likely to be more honest on this issue than NU LAB would have been."
We can only judge them on their track records. NuLab are proven liars on the Iraq invasion, the EU "constitutional" treaty, the electoral reform referendum and other issues. The worst you can say of the SNP to date is that as a minority government they have been unable to implement all the manifesto promises given on the basis of their forming a majority government. You can choose to regard such breaches as equivalent to NuLab's, but for now I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
"If the deal was done in Westminster as you claim why is Kenny getting involved at all then?"
Perhaps I expressed myself badly. I referred to the "previous prisoner exchange deal negotiated between the UK and Libyan governments" which has always seemed odd to me as the only Libyan prisoner to whom it could apply is not in UK government custody. In this context it doesn't particularly worry me but seems an appropriate mechanism to use in the common weal. What I don't understand is why the UK government is not publicly recommending and justifying its use. Why else did it negotiate it?
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Pathetic backtracking from the BBC and the rest of the unionist media, who have clearly taken a collective 'flyer' on this one, got it completely wrong and now hope to spare their blushes by claiming that Macaskill made a decision, then changed his mind....I am looking forward to Eck nailing them on this one.
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#141 oldnat
Thanks for the YouGov info. As you say, it does look good for Lab/Con but let's see what happens when we get a Scottish poll. As I've said before I'm becoming progressively more sceptical of their weightings, particularly after what came to light over their Fabian Society links and preferences. Given YouGov's self-selection and the fact that us wrinklies usually have more time on our hands than younger groups it's worrying for example that 804 responders aged 55+ get "weighted" down to 703 with younger groups being extrapolated up.
#143 Caledonian54 &
#144 oldnat
As the somewhat Mandelsonian Francis Urquart would have said: "You might well say that but I couldn't possibly comment."
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141. oldnat wrote:
The Labour figure (35%) is worringly close on the electoral calculus moving average of 35.4% for them. Might Scottish Labour really be holding up this well? I'm thinking it overestimates real labour strength (not least because some- perhaps as much as 5%- of that 35 will not vote on the GE in protest/apathy).
The Scottish Conservative figure of 21% is marginally high in my judgement. The current scot tory ave (again Electoral Calc) is only 18%, which I interpret as underestimating real strength by 2%.
So in short the real tory figure in my opinion is more likely inbetween both 18-23%- at 20%. This accounts for all of those shy tories (i.e. ashamed to admit tories).
The SNP figure? No way. Their average is 29.2%; no way are they as low as 23%. Innacurate. Not surprising given the small sample size. SNP are somewhere between 27-30% in my judgement.
The Liberals? Well 13% is accurate for them given both their recient euro performance and their moving ave of 12.9%. However this may understimate their strength or overestimate it (thats the worrying part for all liberal dems out in Scotland!).
All in all- if those figures where run (as they are in the poll, unaltered) we would see from Scotland:
Westminster Labour: 30 MPs
Scottish Nationalist: 10 MPs
Scottish Conservative: 10 MPs
Liberal Democrats: 9 MPs
Now...I can only dream of this actually happening...sigh....
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correction to my 151- a mathematical error in extrapolation. Those MPs numbers should read in fact-
Labour: 38 MPs
SNP: 7 MPs
Con: 5
Lib: 7
Sorry about that.
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On the SNP tactical voting blog, link here http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/
Jeff has said that in the political affiliation breakdown Labour party members made up about on third of the total sample.
Also in the Scottish sample the people saying they would not vote was only 5%. A 95% turnout in a Scottish election!!!
Maybe someone who can interpret polls AKA Brownedov, would like to take a look at the figures.
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#152
That's still 38 Labour MPs too many :-)
However I'm still hoping for a significant Tory victory at Westminster. It will help fast track Scottish independence!!
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38 too many indeed
and I wouldnt be so hasty, David Cameron has a pollitical anteni which can match Salmond. It will be a clash of the titans or there wont be an clash at all.
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Well, who leaked the news about Mandelson meeting Gadaffi's son?
I think it was the Scottish Government, and this one will not work.
Why?
If the prisoner is released or not, the decision lies with the Scottish Government.
Of he is released, and lo and behold the UK secures a business deal with Libya, the Scottish Government could be accused of caving into political pressure.
That news on Mandelson has to be from a political source for the timing, certainly if reported by the BBC.
---------------
154. At 7:25pm on 17 Aug 2009, Wee-Scamp wrote:
#152
That's still 38 Labour MPs too many :-)
However I'm still hoping for a significant Tory victory at Westminster. It will help fast track Scottish independence!!
I'd start getting worried about a significant majority. Cameron has two MPs upsetting the public - one moaning about expenses and the other the NHS. Good move by them, giving Labour some ammunition to fight the rearguard action and save a few seats.
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Can someone tell me what Tavish Scott was blethering on about on STV news at 6?
He seemed to suggest , the fact that Hilary Clinton had made some comment about Megrahi that the Scottish Government should be quaking in its collective shoes , shut its face and kowtow to the UK/US having
" mishandled" the whole thing, while not offering any explanation of the " Mishandling"
The other fool from the Labour Party looked and sounded just that - a fool.
Obviously the SNP should have no opinion but the " correct " one and will be subjected to attacks from all and sundry in the media.
Glen Campbell falls into the " sundry " category.
I have no doubt the numpties who have asked Holyrood to be recalled during recess , feel important.
Interesting that Westminster , far from recalling the mother of all ....,decided they needed longer holidays during a vicious recession, don't feel it necessary to discuss at length the carnage in Afghanistan, nor the MPs expenses, nor the Iraq war.
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Even as I wrote that Alan Cochrane , that supporter of all things Scottish ,that bastion of veracity, has given the world his considered opinion on the Telegraph website.
He and his lady wife are beyond the pale and why either the Times or Telegraph or BBC pay these people is beyond my understanding.
But all part of my utter disgust with the media.
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Diabloandco re 158
You can at least stop buying the Times or The Telegraph if you do not like what Cochrane and his wife write.
When the BBC presents speculation as fact as in this case, we have no option over paying the TV tax.
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#158. Diabloandco
I was tempted to leave a comment that Cochrane reports on highland games and forget his attempts at Scottish politics.
The PO has dismissed a recall of government as the matter is reserved to ministers and to them alone so he can go and sulk in his local tavern.
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Re my #156:
i was sarcastic when I meant "good news". The Tories are up to their old "foot in mouth" tricks again. I sometimes wonder if Cameron really hss the party under control.
157. At 9:49pm on 17 Aug 2009, Diabloandco:
The problem with the Scottish Government ignoring or dismissing Hilary Clinton is a significant one. Not so long ago we had Alex Salmond meeting her and the Scottish Government making sure it got sufficient coverage.
I'm wondering why Ms Clinton has spoken up so early though. Could it be from behind the scenes comments from Westminster?
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You are correct Dubbieside.
Just read another article in the Guardian by one Matthew Taylor , my ulcer is now well and truly inflamed!
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Diabloandco re 162
Do not let them grind you down. We are winning. They are getting more desperate by the day.
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You have to admit that Mandelson is very good at what he does - despicable though that is.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6798526.ece
There may be those who think that Lorraine Davidson is a journalist (though they probably reside in Carstairs).
"The Scottish government appears to have buckled under massive pressure from the Obama Administration and abandoned its plans to release the Lockerbie bomber this week."
There were no such plans. McAskill only received the required reports on Friday.
"Senior government sources have admitted there is now “no chance” of Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi being sent back to Libya on Wednesday as had been expected"
Notice the choice of words - "admitted" !!!! Who expected Wednesday???
This entire article is a black arts piece.
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Hooray! The minister for the English NHS is an English Nationalist!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/aug/17/nhs-targets-standards-waiting-times
"For Labour, it all comes down to defending the N in NHS"
There have been 3 different NHS systems in the UK since 1948 (the 4th one for Wales was created in 1968).
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I see that Iain Gray is at his best again.
Construction 'crisis' action call
Again he attacks the SNP, this time over the Scottish building industry. However, the BBC does give a balanced view to this story by broadcasting a fair reply from John Swinney in which John rips Iain Gray to pieces over his misrepresentation of the facts. Iain Gray must be desperate to score a point against the SNP's government if he is trying to stir up unrest in the construction industry by pointing out Labour's failure to manage the UK's economy, which, in turn, has a knock on effect to the Scottish economy. We must remember that the reason that we will have to tighten our belts in the years to come is because of Labour's failed economic strategy; again.
Going back to the libyan case, I wonder if this has been 'engineered' to cause the Scottish government embarrassment in the run up to the by-election? I always suspected that Gordon Brown would keep the by-election from the Glasgow North voters until some sort of political mess for the Scottish government can be arranged for them. Maybe this is one of the 'messes' that the Labour cronies have invented for the SNP.
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Re 164 Oldnat
I am minded to quote another old saying
"If you fly with the crows don't complain when you get shot"
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There is an interesting piece on you tube by Dazed and Confused should anyone care to peruse, I suggest only those not easily offended partake!
Failing that , partake with the excellent old tobacco!
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Re 165 Oldnat
The spat last week was quite interesting though, Cameron might be good at painting over cracks, but he still has the same old divisions in the Tory party, same old complete devolvment from reality.
The Tory over in America was a good advert for Independence for Scotland. If such lunatics were in charge in Westminster it would be the final blow for many.
The improvements in Soctland's NHS have been in no small part to a period of stable management by both Labour and the SNP. No radical swings, just steady as she goes. England could learn from this.
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From Magnus Linklater at the times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/magnus_linklater/article6799649.ece
"After indicating that he was “minded” to release the bomber on compassionate grounds, Mr MacAskill did something Macchiavelli would certainly have forbidden — he went into prison to see the man himself. Minister and terrorist face to face, a meeting that ensured that Mr MacAskill was no longer at arm’s length from the affair.
What did they say to each other? We do not know. But within days, it emerged that Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi would indeed be released on compassionate grounds, and might well be back in Libya within a week — in time for Ramadan."
This story was broken by the BBC before McAskill visited Megrahi in Prison, spin,spin and more spin. Whatever decision McAskill makes it will be the wrong one but I do hope he makes it on judicial grounds and the decision is published outlining the legal findings.
The Americans have got their tuppence worth in and quite rightly, they are looking after the interests of their own and we should expect no less, just as the opposition parties here are trying to score points on the issue. What is sordid about this case is that it has been elevated beyond a judicial decision to a political one and that is wrong.
Whislt I have sympathy for the victims and their families they surely gave up their right to question this decision by taking the compensation?
It is not a case of forgiving and forgetting but having taken the money you keep your own counsel.
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All we are seeing here are all the usual suspects being their opportunistic best .
I listened to labour tory & lib dem reps slagging off the Scottish government ,on the radio this morning, for not being quick enough. The same people who if the Scottish government had rushed this through would be on the radio complaining that they were to quick.
The only one missing was lord haw-haw who must be on holiday as he surely would not miss this opportunity
This whole thing has got sod all to do with American congressmen who are just trying to make a name for themselves or just like to be on the telly.
All that is required here is the big secret to be released to the public and 99% of all the conspiracy theory's would disappear. Refusing to release a couple of pieces of information is pretty pathetic unless of course some very big names (country or person)are too embarrassed to do so.
Sid
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# 169 northhighlander
'Cameron might be good at painting over cracks'
Indeed he is but what he is better at doing is not giving the electorate any Tory policies. All he is giving is soundbites, which, if you think about it, is just the policy to beat Labour at the next general election. Don't give the Labour party a handle to hold on to and wait for Labour to hang themselves. Looking at it politically he is employing the correct tactics against a formidable Labour spin machine.
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Although the various comments within publications such as The Times and the Scottish papers, the Herald and Scotsman are irritating to those who yearn for balanced journalism; we shouldn't get worked up to much about them. Their circulation figures in Scotland are each in the 10's of thousands, so the number of people exposed to their agendas is actually very low. As far I'm concerned, they are there for comic relief, I don't buy them and I'm sure there are lots of people like me.
The Scottish Govewrnment will weather this storm; dig their heels in and follow process and their opponents will squirm in their frustration.
But isn't it nice that the profile of the SNP Government has been raised at an International level? Just think; senior US politicians are dealing direct with Kenny and co. Who would have thought that possible just a few years ago. So bring it on, I say.
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# 171 sidthesceptic
'unless of course some very big names (country or person)are too embarrassed to do so'
And there you have the crux of the problem. We will never know the full truth because of what you have written above. Those of us who treat the governments of this world with disdain because of the contemptuous attitude emanating from those same governments towards their own citizens are treated with suspicion and ridicule. If we suspect that something is going on and we mention it, we are accused of being 'conspiracists' and yet history is full of incidents where governments have lied to their on people and I'd put the UK very close to the top of that list.
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# 173 Blind_Captain
'But isn't it nice that the profile of the SNP Government has been raised at an International level'
Having the big boys of the world sharpening their knives while the Scottish government is on the menu is hardly raising our international profile. Now that we are in that situation then I think the best possible outcome is for MacAskill to follow the due processes of Scottish law and take the flak which will come. In the end, when this has all died down, it will look better for the Scottish government, on the world stage, if it shows that it is not going to be bullied by anyone: friend or foe, whether they be governments or big business.
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#175 gedguy2
"In the end, when this has all died down, it will look better for the Scottish government, on the world stage, if it shows that it is not going to be bullied by anyone: friend or foe, whether they be governments or big business."
Well said.
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# 175 gedguy2
I agree and I have confidence that Kenny and co will do exactly that. I actually think that the opponents of the SNP have potentially scored an own goal on this one, as it allows the Scottish Government to shine and appear "grown up." Regarding your comment about the Scottish government being on the menu, if I were in their shoes, I would be looking at this as heaven sent. This is what Government is all about and the SNP will have been itching to get their teeth into something meaty (to continue the foody theme) for some time.
The Unionist opposition are doing the classic thing of under estimating their opponent, time after time. And remember the one inescapable fact in all things to do with the Governance of Scotland....The SNP were given a mandate by the Scottish people to govern. And that's what they are doing.
Labour, especially, and their supoorters are not used to being in opposition and they are still learning how to be effective in this role. They have a long way to go before they can score points, in my opinion. So allow them the opportunity to keep trying; give them enough rope and all that!
Ramble over....
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# 177 Blind_Captain
'I agree and I have confidence that Kenny and co will do exactly that'
I'm not too sure if it is going to be as easy as that. If a deal has already been done with Libya by the UK government (and it is beginning to look that way) then that puts MacAskill in a really difficult situation. If he keeps the Libyan in prison then he is going to be hounded for stopping major contracts with the Libyans. If he releases him due to compassionate grounds (I wouldn't be surprised if this was made up) then he is going to accused of being soft. Whichever path he is going to choose he is still going to get flak for it. This process of the Libyan, if it runs on for months, is going to interfere with the run up to the Election next year. MacAskill is between a rock and a hard place.
'The SNP were given a mandate'
I wish that they had and maybe the troubles that the SNP have had in trying to get their policies through parliament might not have been thwarted at every turn. However, that was the wish of the people at that time and now, hopefully, the electorate will see the Labour party for what they really are.
'Labour, especially, and their supoorters are not used to being in opposition and they are still learning'
True, but I will add that the Labour party will learn and will, in a few years time, still end up as a formidable foe. This is the time for the SNP to win over the floating voters and the disgruntled Labour supporters. We might not have this chance again for decades.
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#178 gedguy2
"This is the time for the SNP to win over the floating voters and the disgruntled Labour supporters. We might not have this chance again for decades."
What would be your gameplan to achieve the above? This out to all those contributing. (the Megrahi issue will run it's course).
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It looks like over at the Herald Dinwoodie is saying we should not have a Scottish cabinet, Alex Salmond should take all the decisions himself.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/featuresopinon/display.var.2525984.0.Where_is_Salmond_on_the_Megrahi_affair.php
Its strange, I thought that was why you had a cabinet to make decisions relating to their departments. Mind you Dinwoodie would probably prefer a control freak like Brown making all the decisions. I suppose having talent like Ainsworth and postman pat in his cabinet he needs to.
Just imaging the headline the other way. "Salmond interferes in justice decision" He has no confidence in the Justice Secretary says Labours Baker, taking a break from getting fitted for his first pair of long trousers.
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#164 oldnat
"Admitted" is at least better than 'came clean', which is, of course, a staple of political mud slinging, not that I am suggesting that Ms Davidson is engaging in that. Perish the thought.
As for the representations from the other side of the Pond, one understands well enough - does one not? - that there is a cultural divide so far as convicted mass murderers are concerned. From an average American's point of view Megrahi should already be dead. Therefore, the fact that he is now known to be dying is neither here nor there.
For domestic political reasons this rather harsh and indeed callous view, as some may well consider it to be, while others may disagree, has to be accommodated by US political representatives and government officials, not least Democrats, who are constantly under pressure to show that they are made of sterner stuff than the unlamented former President Carter. In urging the Scottish Justice Secretary not to release Megrahi, US Secretary of State Clinton has distanced the Obama administration from a possible decision to release the Lockerbie bomber because it has no choice in effect. It cannot afford to be seen to be soft on terrorism or terrorists.
Unfortunately, although a decision on the Megrahi case should not be influenced by political considerations, as the Scottish Government has stated in the plainest of plain terms, there may conceivably be serious political consequences for the SNP if the decision goes in favour of the cancer patient who was convicted of murdering so many Americans and others over Scotland.
Neo-cons already represent the SNP as a party sympathetic to and associated with Islamists opposed to US interests. The release of Megrahi, followed by high-profile victory celebrations in Tripoli and elsewhere in the Muslim world, will probably be more than enough to induce the National Endowment for Democracy, a CIA front organisation wholly funded by the US Congress, to churn out more anti-SNP propaganda of the 'Edinburgh-Tehran Axis' variety. Don't forget that, so far as the NED is concerned (a body whose funding Mr Obama undertook to increase), Scots are all "marching to a single drum-beat" under an SNP regime. It sounds crackers, of course, but not to unbelievably ill-informed Americans who are receptive to the notion that the NHS is an 'evil' organisation.
While not arguing that the Justice Secretary should be influenced by considerations of this nature, as that would plainly be improper, I simply make the obvious point that the flak when it comes will need to be dealt with, and it will be as well for the SNP to realise and be prepared for what it will be faced with. Taking tough decisions is what a political party has to do in government, clearly. So is damage limitation after every tough decision, and this is a big one.
As has been pointed out, the SNP wants to have big decisions to take. Quite right, but it is still a small fish in the political waters in which it is currently swimming, and there be sharks about.
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#181
“As has been pointed out, the SNP wants to have big decisions to take. Quite right, but it is still a small fish in the political waters in which it is currently swimming, and there be sharks about.”
Big deal, many of these sharks are the old school politicians that will continue to feather their own nests and look after number one. It is time for politicians to be stood up and be counted, and yes this will put the SNP on the world stage and they will stand up and will be seen to be honest hard working politicians that work within Scottish Law. Just maybe these Sharks will learn a thing or two about working for the people than working solely for themselves – I know, and maybe pigs will fly.
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169. northhighlander
"If such lunatics were in charge in Westminster it would be the final blow for many"
Sorry but what is of the 'lunatic' in what mr Hannan proposed? He merely promoted the Singapore Healthcare model, personally I do not believe that that is a mad thing to do.
Or is it that you are one of those people that believe that to dare to critisise the NHS "unpatriotic".
Hannan had a point- lets look at the Singapore healthcare record for starters:
"The Singapore health system – achieving positive health outcomes with low expenditure"
-Watson Whatt Europe Healthcare market review (see http://www.watsonwyatt.com/europe/pubs/healthcare/render2.asp?ID=13850)
I.E. value for taxpayers monies whilst still maintaining the universality to health coverage. And note in the link graph that the Singapore model actually provides a healthy life expetancy equal to our own in the UK- for much less, and much superior quality of service.
No post code lottery in Singapore, whose healthcare system we should match. So as I say, whats mad about what Hannan proposed? Is it really mad to dare to criticise the NHS and its socialisation of medicinal care?
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And further look at Singapore's health coverage finance- the vast majority of funding comes from private rather than public source. And this is matched by the extremely 'low infant mortality rates and acceptable waiting times for most forms of healthcare treatment (particularly in public health care facilities)'.
So again Northhighlander what is of the lunatic about Hannans' proposal to institute a Singapore style system? Or is it merely that you believe it "unpatriotic" to dare to criticise the NHS?
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# 183 deanthetory
Being fair, Singapore is a small island of only about 200 square miles (guestimate) and it would be difficult to compare their centrally run NHS with our larger NHS and with all the effort a country like ours requires.
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According to the CIA world factbook, a really interesting website given free by the CIA, singapore is 697 square kilometers.
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185. gedguy2
"Being fair, Singapore is a small island of only about 200 square miles (guestimate) and it would be difficult to compare their centrally run NHS with our larger NHS"
The size of the country has little relevance, especially when the population of singapore is about equal to the population size of Scotland (Singapore- 4,608,167 July 2008 est). The comparison is perfectly justified. Or is it your position that we can only compare systems of countries of exact equal size geographically? Thats a new one on me- lets run progress and innovation by geographical chance.
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#153 dubbieside
"A 95% turnout in a Scottish election!!! Maybe someone who can interpret polls AKA Brownedov, would like to take a look at the figures."
Your wish is my command, but I was out yesterday evening and busy this morning.
Regarding the turnout, I agree that's remarkably suspicious, with no other "region" suggesting a percentage higher than 92% and even the GB average of 90% is remarkably high. Even the assumption that the "don't knows" won't vote gives a suggested turnout of 85% for Scotland and 78% for the whole island, indicating that many of those who actually express a preference will stay at home, with most of us posting here hoping, with some justification, that they will include a higher proportion of NuLab aficionados than the rest.
I did look at SNP Tactical Voting's Scottish mini-poll, and don't quite see where "Jeff" got his "Labour party members made up nearly a third of the total sample" from, and I'm more inclined to go with your "If Labours own internal polls mirrored these findings then the Glasgow by-election would have been done and dusted by now".
As I've said before, what worries me most about the accuracy of these mini-polls is the unexplained application of the weightings when applied regionally. Page 7 of YouGov's detailed PDF shows the weightings actually used.
The regional weightings are fair enough in adjusting the respondents to match the regional electorates, and come out as follows:
Unweighted, Adjustment, Weighted, Region
316, -18.67%, 257, London
659, -1.06%, 652, Rest of South
383, +12.27%, 430, Midlands and Wales
453, +9.05%, 494, North
196, -11.22%, 174, Scotland
2007, n/a, 2007, Total
Where the weightings are much more subjective comes in things like Political Party Identification:
Unweighted, Adjustment, Weighted, Party
656, -1.98%, 643, Lab
520, +0.38%, 522, Con
192, +25.52%, 241, L-D
97, -38.14%, 60, Others
470, +4.47%, 491, None
72, -30.56%, 50, Don't know
2007, n/a, 2007, Total
I don't pretend to know how these are calculated for the whole island and if YouGov's methodology is published I haven't found it yet. I can only assume from what I see on sites like http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ that they're rolling averages based on previous polls both official and sampled, where overall the support for "others" probably is dropping as memory of the euro elections recedes. The L-Ds island-wide will probably get some of those "protest" votes, but giving them a boost in excess of 25% seems excessive.
More to the point for the Scottish sample is the fact that SNP support is included in "others", and however volatile Dean may hope it is, I'm sure he would concede that a drop in their support of 38% is a tad OTT given how well NuLab are doing in driving away "traditional" Labour supporters.
There are other "regional" factors, too, such as the age-mix, which differ in Scotland to the rest of GB, but I think the above is quite enough to explain why we should not read too much into Scottish samples in GB-wide polls.
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# 187 deanthetory
'The size of the country has little relevance'
Singapore has no where near the amount of difficult terrain that the UK has to put up with which can only greatly add to the cost of running a budget. Even the cost to the taxpayer of having our helicopters scattered all over the UK to give adequate cover. I believe that a quite a large amount of the cost of this is hidden in the UK defense budget. You surely must concede that there must be a large differential cost from living on an island where you are never more then 15 miles away from its centre to living in the UK.
I'm not disagreeing with the thrust of your argument; I do think that we can get more value for money off the NHS and I don't believe that it is being particularly well run. How come we would get a better deal, with the money that we give the government in National Insurance taxes, if we used that money instead on private medicine and our own pensions? I just think that the reaction by the medical professions' enthusiasm about Singapore's magnificent running of its NHS is overrated because of the smallness of the island.
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Brownedov re 188
Many thanks. I am still not sure I understand these polls, but I am very suspicious about them and there "propaganda" value. I still remember the poll just before the Glasgow East by-election which gave Labour a 17% lead. Was that an attempt to make SNP voters think there is no point in going out to vote, Labour will win anyway.
It is why I continue to make the point about real people going into real polling booths in June with the SNP about 100,000 votes ahead of Labour. These voters have not changed their minds so quickly.
I will continue to make this point, even though it appears to irritate Jeff. I hope I don't get banned from commenting on his blog.
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#187 deanthetory
I'm actually quite sympathetic to your views re Singapore, but you go too far here, Dean. Even if the two nations had identical populations, geography will make Scottish costs per head greater than Singaporean because of the need for local facilities in rural and island areas - at least until we can teleport people - unlikely in our own lifetimes.
That's not to say that the Singapore model doesn't bear examination. As someone who doesn't particularly like central control, my own preference would be for the state to operate a true insurance system for health care, benefits and pensions, with the actual operation contracted out and merely regulated centrally, with "means tested" contributions actuarially calculated to cover the costs. The real problem there is that no government has "ring-fenced" specific taxation for the "services" it is supposed to provide and it will take an electoral earthquake to persuade them to do so. For rural and island communities, the state would have to provide an emergency infrastructure good enough to meet agreed targets, but arguably provision in urban areas could be entirely privately and competitively supplied.
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#182 skintybroko
The principal shark of which I was thinking is a certain Professor Gallagher, from whom we have heard before, not to mention the NED itself, which operates openly in the UK by sponsoring politically motivated academics and journalists who are involved in Scottish affairs.
The NED has been accused by both right-wing and left-wing personalities of interference in foreign governments and of being set up to continue legally the CIA's prohibited activities of support for selected political parties abroad. It has been referred to in the non-western media as "CIA the 2nd".
Critics such as Pat Buchanan (an American conservative political commentator, author, syndicated columnist, politician and broadcaster) accuse the NED of fomenting revolution and regularly interfering in the affairs of other countries:
"After helping dump over the government in Belgrade, our Neocomintern - the National Endowment for Democracy, Freedom House, and other fronts - interfered in Ukraine and Georgia, helping oust pro-Moscow regimes and install pro-American ones. Since then, NED has been run out of Belarus and its subsidiaries are about to get the boot from Moscow.
Can we blame the Russians for being angry? How would we react to left-wing NGOs in Washington, flush with Moscow oil money, aiding elements hostile to the Bush administration?"
(Pat Buchanan, Who Lost Russia? June 5th, 2007) at
http://www.antiwar.com/pat/?articleid=11077
NED = government-funded NGO (non-governmental agency) for promoting US interests by interfering in the affairs of other countries, including Western European ones.
If Megrahi is freed, look out for a flurry of viciously polemical high-profile anti-SNP articles by Professor Gallagher in the corporate media. Just possibly he will hold fire until the 2010 elections, though. We shall see.
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#190 dubbieside
You're welcome.
"I am still not sure I understand these polls, but I am very suspicious about them and there "propaganda" value."
I could have said the same. With falling circulations it is understandable why the print media commission few Scottish polls, but a pity all the same. If they took their responsibilities seriously, STV and BBC Scotland would jointly and regularly commission such polls.
"I still remember the poll just before the Glasgow East by-election which gave Labour a 17% lead."
To the best of my recollection, no details at all of that one were ever published, and it's hard to think of a better explanation than the one you suggest.
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189. gedguy2
191. Brownedov
I take your points about per head of population- it is a problem if one was to attempt to replicate the Singapore system into the UK exactly. I agree with you that the problem with Singapore healthcare model is also that it evolved almost naturally, and it wasnt like our NHS which was 'established' in 1947. So copying it would mean resolving particular problems not least rural issues and gegraphical infrastructural problems. All what you said in these areas I entirely agree with.
But my substantive point was not neccessarily to promote the Singapore system (though I am happy to do this)- it was more to highlight to North highlander that it is damaging to healthcare provision if one simply follows his logic of denouncing Hannan was "a lunatic" for daring to draw attention to other countries where universal healthcare is provided more efficiently.
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This website's "Case closed? The BBC's Glenn Campbell on the Lockerbie bombing", as linked to from the main Scotland politics and UK Politics pages, is nothing of the sort, but it does suggest a new twist to the issue I've not seen published before. Campbell says "In a letter to the UN secretary general, Britain and America made clear that `if found guilty, the two accused will serve their sentence in the United Kingdom´."
Could Campbell be hoping that Murphy intervenes if MacAskill agrees to transfer of custody?
There would seem to be every prospect that he might given that Schedule 5 Part I Para 7 on Reserved matters of the Scotland Act 1998 has a blanket reservation on "International relations, including relations with territories outside the United Kingdom, the European Communities (and their institutions) and other international organisations, regulation of international trade, and international development assistance".
The joint letter to Kofi Annan would surely count as "International relations" if Westmidden wished it to. Could that be the cause of the Skeletor's current emulation of his McAvityesque master?
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#194 deanthetory
Fair enough. We're not far apart here, I think.
Re Hannan, he's certainly no lunatic, and I suspect his solution would be less Liberal than mine, but he has definitely embarrassed his "boss" who seems to share the traditional Westmidden fear of the real costs of any public expenditure being known. Personally, I find most people prepared to pay for things they believe to be right and fair, but that's not a view widely held in the corridors of power.
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Who'd have thought it?
This website's Burgess At The BBC publishes a 1938 internal memo from Guy Burgess - then a BBC radio producer - reporting an interview with Winston Churchill, then still in his "wilderness years":
"Mr. Churchill ... went on to say that he imagined that he would be even more
muzzled in the future, since the work at the B.B.C. seemed to have passed under
the control of the Government. I said that this was not, in fact, the case, though
just at the moment we were, as a matter of courtesy, allowing the Foreign Office
to see scripts on political subjects."
Unsurprisingly, a current editor's note tells us that:
"It also reveals that, according to Burgess at least, Winston Churchill distrusted the
BBC and, as a member of the opposition, was wary of government interference in
its broadcasts."
Pity that Churchill did nothing to change things in his second period as PM. Even I would concede he had other priorities during his first.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose!
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Re 184 Deanthetory
I stand by my assertion that the man is a lunatic, he also said that the American system achieved much better outcomes than the British system. Now that is a system where 45m roughly have no access to healthcare at all. Now let me see will that be from the top 10 percent or the bottom 10 percent? Poor people die in America from the lack of basic health care. While America may achieve some of the best healthcare outcomes in the western world, it also produces some of the worst.
Singapore is different geographically and culturally from Scotland, something that is obvious to all. Placing the burden of healthcare from the state to the employer will simply push up the cost of employment which we don't need just now. Taxes would be lower, but lower personal taxes don't help employers.
No-one is saying that the NHS cannot be more efficient, but the main problem the NHS has in the UK, but England in particular is constant change in management philosophy. In Scotland there has been little difference in approach between the previous Labour Government and the SNP, the service is constantly improving and will get better. The SNP have introduced reform but in a steady considered manner which carries on the same philosophy. (ENRAC funding excepted)
It is fundamentally wrong that health outcomes should depend on wealth. I also think we should look at other areas of the UK that the previous Tory administration privatised, look at the water industry. England private, Scotland public. Who has the lowest water bills?
Electricity and gas privatisations have not resulted in better services or lower prices for customers anywhere.
Private companies don't always do things more efficiently and while I accept that the NHS can be improved, the model itself is not necessarily wrong or broken.
The real point is although Cameron and his closest aids won't discuss detail, when a few of his more colourful extremists get loose they reveal a worrying vision for many. I suspect Hanan won't be the last to reveal the old Tory divisions are still all present and the party has really not reformed its thinking at all, just got a new front.
Cameron needs to do a lot of work to prove to people that the Tories really do believe in the NHS providing care free at the point of delivery based on need. This has never been supported fully within the Tory party and obviously still is not. Although the majority of the population of the UK want the NHS to remain and be improved.
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198. northhighlander
"Placing the burden of healthcare from the state to the employer will simply push up the cost of employment which we don't need just now."
I agree, this is also why I am sure you would agree with me when I say that we can do without the SNPs' Local Income Tax right now for precisely the same reasons?
"Cameron needs to do a lot of work to prove to people that the Tories really do believe in the NHS providing care free at the point of delivery based on need. This has never been supported fully within the Tory party and obviously still is not."
Sorry but this is self serving bull*$£t.
The tories believe in healthcare free at the point of need! God that is why Hannan referred the the Singapore model- which is cheeper for the taxpayer yet still maintains universality in care coverage with greate private sector involvement.
Your assertion that universal healthcare coverage isnt something believed in by party members is just ignorant. Some may disagree but they are an incredibly small minority.
Why are you decending to insinuation northhighlander? The old rhetoric of two faced tory went out the window years ago (nor was it ever true).
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#198. northhighlander
I wouldn't worry as we'll all be on bread and water for the next couple of decades due to the total incompetence of your unionist nulabs.
'British Government could default on its debts'
"Mr Cameron warned that Labour is now borrowing so much that some investors will demand higher interest rates to reflect what they see as the increased risk of British government debt.
The Conservative leader went on to suggest that Labour has increased the risk of the Government being unable to honour its debts, an unprecedented economic failure."
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This morning the BBC reported London government sources 'leaking' on this and on possible SNP moves. How much of this is a clever wheeze by New Labour to put pressure on the devolved government - a wheeze sections of the BBC seem to go along with? It was Tony Blair who agreed that such prisoner deals with Libya would be possible - apparently ignoring Holyrood's interest. Why haven't the terms of the Blair deal been covered recently - it's Labour's deal that set up the SNP.
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Brian I think you are stretching points looking for coincidences. Assuming the validity of the cancer diagnosis, Mr Megrahi's lawyer is doubtless familiar with law and process and would be aware of the grounds for compassionate early release and the need to remove any legal obstacle such as an appeal.
For once I have some sympathy for the SNP government. Damned if they do damned if they don't. If I were Mr MacAskill I would double check the medical diagnosis and make the decision on humane grounds.
Incidentally those who complain about terrorism should remember that many British Troops were killed (King David Hotel 1946) by suspected Jewish elements prior to the foundation of Israel. Later Britain was allied to many of the same people at Suez in 1956.
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