The scunner factor
You can factor in the caveats.
The SNP vote wasn't as high as at the Holyrood elections. The Nationalists and Labour each gained two MEPs.
But sometimes caveats are trumped by the big story. This is one such occasion.
The SNP gave Labour a thumping at these Euro elections.
The Scottish secretary, Jim Murphy, called it right. Labour's showing was "rubbish".
Do these results translate directly into a UK or Scottish general election? No.
But they are a pointer to the extent of disquiet - make that anger - with Labour.
The scunner factor to the fore once more.
'Comprehensive victory'
It could be said that there was an anti-scunner factor at work at Holyrood.
Not sure I entirely buy the SNP argument that this was a confidence vote in the Scottish Government. It was more about protest against Labour.
However, at the very least, the voters were not apparently deterred in any way from giving their support to the SNP by the party's performance at Holyrood.
Plus the victory for the SNP was comprehensive.
Look at the breakdown by local authority. I make it that voters in 22 council areas opted to put the SNP first.
The Tories took four councils, the Lib Dems three - with Labour confined to Fife, Glasgow and North Lanarkshire.
Both the Tories and the Lib Dems saw their share shrink slightly on the night - but with compensations.
Expenses fury
The Lib Dems were simply relieved to hold on to a Euro seat. The Tories were cheered by their decent showing in key target areas like the Borders and the south-west.
What does it mean for the prime minister? Not much more than he already knew: Labour is in grave trouble.
Still, it adds colour to that picture to say the least: beaten by the Tories in Wales, third place overall behind UKIP.
His pitch to his MPs remains as billed previously on this site.
Dump me, he says, and there is an immediate or early general election. Anyone care to guess the outcome, based on these figures?
Keep me, he says, and I can stay in office until May when the economy should be picking up and the fury over expenses may have abated a little.
Maybe.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~58~RS~)
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Brian
May please; in K'dy + Cowdenbeath according to ICM for the NoW he still commands 50% to the SNP 25%. That is only 8% down on his 2005, we need the extra time to work on those poor deluded people and show them that he's not and never has been doing a good job for us or for Dunfermline East. We need more time or it'll not be alright on the night!
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Anybody got a strong sense of deja vu, with Labour cabinet ministers resigning and calling for Gordie to stand down? Jane Kennedy is the first this week. How many more ministerial resignations can Gordie withstand? Just what will it take for Gordie to realise the electorate DON'T want him to get on with the job, they want him to go? Will we all have to actually march on Westminster before he realises he's as dead duck prime minister? Or does he just not care?
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if my math is right labour would have lost a Scottish seat in the euro elections with only another 0.9% swing from Labour to SNP. While this is clearly not an election transferrable to Westminister, let alone Holyrood, and should not be confused with a vote of confidence in the SNP administration, losing that seat would probably have been a significant dent in what is left of Brown's armour.
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This Englishman sees the positive result in Scotland for the SNP as a harbinger of hope for the English people.
I hope that after, say, two or three more elections cycles, we English will be hearing that the English Democrats have given the Tories a good thumping at the polls.
You Scots will by then have long departed but politically aware English people will still be thanking you for leading the way.
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If this was a protest vote against Labour, wouldn't there be a rise in vote share for other parties as well?
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You should all look over at the Grauniad and read the extremist comments on Iain McWhirter's article.
True unionists one and all. Hope that the usual suspects are hapy to allow those people to run my country.
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What on earth do Labour have to do to get Glasgow to stop voting for them? It feels as if I live in the only city in the UK that doesn't understand that Labour are no longer the party of the working classes. It really does beggar belief - I think there's more chance of the SNP winning the popular vote in London than in Glasgow!
On a similar note: "Not sure I entirely buy the SNP argument that this was a confidence vote in the Scottish Government. It was more about protest against Labour." Brian, when are you going to stop being so partisan? Can you not just accept that the people are refusing to adhere to the agenda set by the media for once?
I actually know of SNP supporters who voted UKIP because their main concern for this election was to get away from Europe, which is not one of the SNP's policies. I've also heard a lot of people wonder what the point is of voting SNP in these elections, seeing them more as a party for the Scottish Elections. Against this background, I was actually pleasantly surprised they managed to increase their vote so much. 10% increase Brian - that's too big for a protest vote.
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Hmmm, So at what point a win and good poll showing by the SNP convince you that it is more than just a protest vote against Labour?
Why did the Libdems fail to make anything? Surely if it was a genuine protest vote against Labour, then the Libdems would have cleaned up!
Or do you think the Scottish voter is unhappy with the SNP as well?
Your arguement that it is more to do with a protest vote, really doesnt hold water. The voter DID have a choice, they could have protested and voted for the Libdems or even Greens and that would have meant that they were protesting against Labour as we would have seen a larfge vote volume go over to the Libdems and or Greens and that would have also confirmed that there was no confidence in the SNP. BUT that didnt happen, I know that and you know that! Or are you arueing the point that it was a protest vote , but people didnt have confidence in the Libdems or Greens?
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I am not a nationalist but I voted SNP...unlike BNP, the nationalists in the Netherlands, and some of the terrifying right wing nationalists of eg Romania and Hungary, SNP manages, apparently without effort, to be both nationalist and internationalist, and a more than adequate compensation for the lackings of the Labour Party.
When I see the nationalist face of England and other places, I am glad as a voter that I have somewhere to go where humanism and egalitarianism still exists.
There seems to be no BNP equivalent in Scotland..or am I wrong?
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"The Scottish secretary, Jim Murphy, called it right. Labour's showing was "rubbish"."
No Brian Nulab are rubbish.
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Let's not get carried away. The SNP got 30% of the vote - well done. However, as less than 30% of the electorate bothered to vote hardly a big thumbs up them or for Europe (they are bragging because they got approx 8% of the potential vote!!!). I know someone who was at a polling station at a medium sized town in Scotland - don't want to name & shame - and they said only 10 people voted all day. It struck me as a bit depressing if nothing else.
What it really means is that Labour are about to enter the early 80's syndrome as there is no-one with any oomph on the front bench or in the vicinity. The Tories will take over & Cameron will no doubt try & avoid the mistakes that Brown did: avoiding Salmond, going on YouTube, crashing the economy & losing all semblance of control within his own party. The Lib-dem's for me did appallingly bad across the UK with all the problems going on in Westminster & with Labour they still failed to produce the goods. What next lose ground to the BNP......
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Your absolutly right this is not a vote transferrable to Scottish or UK parliament elections, this is a warning shot at Labour that if they do not get their act together, they will see the SNP take a clean 40% in Scotland.
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Brian writes:
It was more about protest against Labour.
And so the same old tired mantra goes on.
First it was the SNP 'honeymoon', then after Glenrothes the 'honeymoon' was over. Then it was 'Global' this and 'Global' that, then that evaporated and the 'honeymoon' was back on again.
Labour have consistently been losing support since before 2007, long before any 'scunner' factor. This result is sure to have been compounded by Labour expenses scandals, yes even the ones that the BBC are trying to ignore, however that the SNP are attracting more and more support is absolutely clear.
Why weren't the Scottish electorate scunnered with the SNP? We have witnessed a concerted campaign against both MacAskill and Salmond by our media over the last three weeks.
We have been told that prisoners are walking out of jail, murderers are on the run, Salmond has been misleading parliament and he has been taking the taxpayer for a ride by gorging himself on mountains of food !!
We have also been assured that protest votes will only be going to UKIP, Greens and the BNP, Labour were riding high after three by-election wins.
All of a sudden the SNP utterly destroy Labour and, hey, it's only a protest vote !!
Brian is partly correct, the Scottish electorate are indeed scunnered by Labour. This though is not down to a few barely reported fraudulent claims, nor to Darling and Brown 'flipping' second home adddresses.
No, the scunner factor is due to a Labour party that has treated Scotland as no more than a stepping stone to the Westminster trough and rode roughshod over the wishes and views of those whom they were elected to represent
Brian displays a cognitive dissonance all too prevalent with those who rely on Unionist institutions for their daily bread. He has viewed Scotland through the prism of London and the Union for so long that he simply cannot remove the glasses.
Like latterday Japanese soldiers who refused to believe that their emperor had surrendered and carried on the struggle, Brian simply cannot contemplate that Scots may just be tired of Westminster - Labour are merely the party that bears the brunt.
I watched the Berlin wall crumble and fall, I now believe that I'll see the end of the corrupt Union and witness the birth of a new relationship with England - I look forward to that, and I'll even cheer if they win the world cup.
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I think "rubbish " is a little bit mild.
It was partly a protest vote, but a lot of voters went for the SNP as it is the only real alternative up.
But, a note of caution. A vote for the SNP does not necessarily mean a vote for independence.
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Is the SNP's lower percentage of the vote in last week's election compared with Holywood not attributable to it being one of 13 options on the ballot paper last week and the smaller parties doing quite well?
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unless those who claim that this was a protest vote , actually ask everyone who voted SNP , "was your vote a protest vote" then your assumptions are empty
Will they say this at the general election then ? and when Scotland wins back its independence ?
Labour are a spent force, The Tories will never win anything in Scotland, The Libs and the SNP are the only choice in Scotland
Cya England , and Brian you may as well move there too with your NULAB buddies
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"Not sure I entirely buy the SNP argument that this was a confidence vote in the Scottish Government. It was more about protest against Labour."
I disagree. If the public was unhappy with the progress of the Scottish Government then the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, United Kingdom Independence Party could be another choice for voters, but why have the public backed the Scottish National Party in these elections?
The overall turn out was 2 percent lower then the last elections, but the SNP increased their share of votes by 10 percent! The other main political parties also lost votes. For the SNP this is good news, and a strong indication that the general elections may prove to be suprising.
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To: Brian Taylor
From: Jim Murphy
Subject: Euro election scunner of a result
Here's a few ideas - merely my suggestions of course! ;-)
Minimise the horrific scale of the loss: "The SNP vote wasn't as high as at the Holyrood elections."
Throw in a quick plug about my amazing prediction abilities: "The Scottish secretary, Jim Murphy, called it right."
Talk down the SNP victory: "Do these results translate directly into a UK or Scottish general election? No."
Shoot down what that **!!!£!$ Salmond had the cheek to say on telly last night in front of the whole UK: "Not sure I entirely buy the SNP argument that this was a confidence vote in the Scottish Government. It was more about protest against Labour."
Have a sly dig at the SNP's Holyrood record: "However, at the very least, the voters were not apparently deterred in any way from giving their support to the SNP by the party's performance at Holyrood."
That should cover it.
Trust you'll word it in that usual sleekit way so nobody can actually point the finger at anybody.
"Power to the People"
Jim
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
However you twist and tweak the figures, it looks increasingly likely that unless the Labour government wins the European lottery ten times in the next couple of months , they will be decimated as they deserve at the next election for the disservice they have done to Britain. Here in Scotland the same will hold true, with in addition the Lib Dems paying the price for their long and willing association with Labour in an attempt to give themselves credence as a viable political alternative to whoever is handy.The SNP result, for an administration in mid term is truly phenomenal and I suspect when the chips are down at a general election, Labour as a political entity may well disappear in Scotland.This was not just a protest vote against Labour or their expence allowances , it was a realisation that as a political party, Labour no longer has anything to offer the Scottish people.
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The scunner factor to the fore once more?????
Good God, let's say ANYTHING but the truth. But whatever we do let's soften this disaster for our beloved London Labour, champions of the not so great british union.
Yes that's it, it was only the scunner factor wot dun it.
Wow, I thought London Labour was in trouble there for a moment.
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Surely this is more than a protest vote. This is a bit of a disaster for all politicians. In many areas more than 75% of the electorate thought none of the candidates or parties were worth voting for. How can anyone claim a mandate to do anything on that kind of turnout?
That statistic is the real problem, the majority of voters said "plague on all your houses" and stayed away.
This leaves us with a significant problem how to inspire voters that politicians of any creed have a vision to lead us forward and make the changes required and show a vision of where we need to go.
That is a clear statistic from this election. So where is the leadership and vision going to come from? Where is the new thinking required to deal with the current economic crisis and the fallout yet to come?
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At 1:06pm on 07 Jun 2009, greenockboy wrote:
"Pay close attention to the swine flu coverage in Scotland. Gray and co have demonstrated a complete lack of respect and responsibility recently and there will be some who are champing at the bit to use this in order to get at the SNP and Sturgeon."
BBC Scotland website at 18:05 GMT, Monday, 8 June 2009 19:05 UK: "Record confirmed swine flu rise"
It's got to the ricidulous stage where people can predict the stories before they publish them.
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I'm not entirely sure what planet you are on Brian as all the recent opinion polls predicted this result in terms of vote share.
A further 9% swing to the SNP on top of the 10% swing they gained in 2007 does not suggest a protest vote to me, more like a political trend. Your own BBC analysis indicates that if this was a general election vote share we would be saying bye bye to Brown's no longer Darling and the numpty Murphy as just two of the 'heavy weight' casualties.
Labour are in disarray where ever you look within the UK, in the long grass in the South West, hanging on by the skin of their teeth in the South East, loosing votes to the BNP in what should be staunch working class voting areas in the North East and West, trailing the Tories in Wales. The worry for all the Unionists is the upsurge in UKIP taking votes from the Tories across England yet insignificant in Wales or Scotland. UKIP are simply the Tory right wingers, inward looking and isolationist. In a GE UKIP could hold the Tories to ransom if their vote share is repeated. UKIP are no friend of Scotland.
The reality is this is a tipping point, the SNP are no longer seen as a single issue party and are now recognised as a competent force for Scottish Government whether within a federal UK or as an independent country. Call me Dave either has to come up with the complete reform of the House of Lords as a UK elected 'senate', Westminster reverting to the English devolved assembly, coupled with fiscal autonomy for Scotland or become known as the PM in whose watch the Union of Parliaments finally collapsed.
Yes - the Westminster Turkeys will have to vote for Christmas because the alternative is growing tension between the two main partners in the Union, ending in a very messy divorce in which, in the worst case scenario, Scotland switches off oil, electricity and gas supplies across the border then the lights go out across Northern Ireland and Northern England with Teeside's petro-chemical industry grinding to a halt. Until all those nuclear stations are up and glowing across England they need Scotland as an energy store house more than Scotland needs England.
How long before England will need to import water from Scotland as aquifers continue drying up in the SE of England?
That's the problem for the Unionists, Brian, Scots are becoming more aware of rip off Westminster while being told we are the ones who are dependent.
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Hi,
Interesting result and absolutely delighted to see Labour gubbed. However, Note of caution. The results are best compared with the last Holyrood elections to test the SNP core support.
The SNP dropped from 33% to 30%.
Labour from 33% to 20%.
Tories up from 14% to 18%.
Libs down from 16% to 12%.
(forgive the odd rounding up/down)
So, what it shows is that the SNP has lost 10% of its vote, Labour a third and Libs a quarter of their vote. The Tories vote has gone up but from a relatively low base.
Where did the Labour percentage go then? Basically, a fifth of all votes cast went to fringe parties who won't get that vote at a UK election. Will labour get it back? I hope not but sheep tend to be true to type.
At the risk of sounding entirely patronising, the UK election is first past the post and treated as a real election - which the Euro election isn't. Of course it should be but it isn't.
The SNP did well to marginally hold their Holyrood share. But a UK election is a different kettle of fish - remember Glenrothes. At Glenothes, the SNP got out almost every single person who voted for them at Holyrood but Labour got even more votes out.
So, nothing gets taken for granted.
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Oh, I forgot to mention in my post that Fiona Hyslop was also apparently under pressure !!
You can add that to the list of media attacks on SNP ministers prior to this election.
Have to ask again, but is there no-one at the BBC who can sit Glenn Campbell down and gently remind him that having sly digs at SNP politicians is not just unprofessional but also rude.
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#18 bighullabaloo
Brilliant! Ha ha.
The Labour party doesn't have a monopoly on comedians!
Keep them coming.
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There might well be a "scunner" element in the vote, but there are two points worth bearing in mind; first the SNP are the government in Scotland and the electorate clearly aren't scunnered of them notwithstanding the negative reporting. Secondly, and more worrying for Labour, which is the real reason why they hate the Nationalists so much, the SNP presents a genuine alternative.
Once upon a time, as in England it was a straightforward choice between Labour and Tory with anything else, be it Liberal (or SNP) a wasted vote. The Labour party got by quite well enough thank you knowing that if they turned into Nu-Labour they might gain votes from all sorts of people who wouldn't have voted for flat caps and whippets or the "loony left", but found Smoothie Blair quite appealing;while conversely although their traditional core supporters might be unhappy there was no way that they would turn traitor to their class and to the movement by voting Tory no matter how sick they might be.
Unfortunately, this cunning plan doesn't work in Scotland, because when they are sick of being treated like dirt by the "People's Party" they can vote SNP and still stay true to their roots.
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#25 irnbru_addict -
Agree with you re: no complacency but isn't it worth pointing out that Glenrothes was a by-election - which gave the parties the opportunity to bring all their machine to bear in one place.
Let's see Labour pull that off across the whole country in a national vote. Indicative/anecdotal reports on attendance at their own Scottish National Conference suggest their activists might be slightly thinner on the ground come 2010.
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25. At 8:17pm on 08 Jun 2009, irnbru_addict:
Alex Salmond will certainly not take anything for granted, unlike some of the Labour members.
One thing that is a touch worrying is that in Europe, control appears to be going to the right wing parties, especially in Poland. That leaves the socialists with less influence. It will be interesting to see what impact the UK MEPs can make.
I still think that Gordon Brown will be ousted and replaced by Alan Johnson. He is *publicly* the safest option. No big scandals, no axes to grind.
It might be that the Labour Party will settle down, but I doubt it. They know that stability is urgently required, and that they either need to back Brown or replace him quickly. The question is, if he does go, will his supporters unite with the rest of the party or will they tear it apart.
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What amazes me is that the Unionists, typified by Brian, are sleepwalking into dissolution of the Union. Fine by me. I have not seen one single media article about the danger to the UK.
Whilst the Unionists squabble about what has happened to the Labour vote and try to put any kind of spin on it, the SNP are getting on with the job and getting the results. The SNP have won the Holyrood and now the Euro, increasing it's vote share. A General Election is less than a year away. It could get worse for Labour before the GE. By the time the Unionists wake up it will be too late. Scotland will be gone - Free. They won't be able to spin that.
Freedom
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The next general election will be one where serious thought will go into all the possible outcomes. The results of the euro election just past weren't so good for the tories either (in the UK) and large portions of their core vote might well be diluted by 'protest votes' to UKIP or the BNP.
Labour didn't put a lot of effort into the euro elections because they recognized that they were going to take a pasting. They now have the benefit of being able to hold up the consequences of not voting for labour in certain parts of the country ie the BNP gets elected, so now have a good rallying cry to counter the 'protest vote'.
The horror show of the expenses saga has got a long way to run. I expect Gordo will have his own team digging the dirt on the same material the telegraph has been mining so will be able to leak more stuff to counter the tories.
In other words the next general election might be a lot closer than people on this blog are anticipating and whatever happens, the party in power at westminster is not going to favour a scotland doing a better job of governing than the 'mother of all parliamnets'.
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Brian wrote: "Not sure I entirely buy the SNP argument that this was a confidence vote in the Scottish Government. It was more about protest against Labour."
Rrrrrubbish! That was two years ago!
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*4 - JC
Cool paintings man, and all the best.
You're most welcome.
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The longer I survive, the more frustrated I get with the blogs made by the BBC's Scottish Labour Political journalist! Although I have no allegiance to any political party nor any aspirations to change this, I do get more and more annoyed with the passage of time with your biased blogs. Could you not(for once)try to leave your(or your paymasters')bias behind and just post the news as it appears instead of continually trying to put down the current scottish executive governing party. We deserve better from you and our politicians!
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hadrianswall re your 31.
Sorry about this, but could you please keep quite. We do not want to wake the onionists who are sleepwalking into dissolution of the union. Lets be happy that Broon is asleep at the wheel.
It is also great that this is a protest vote against Labour during the SNP honeymoon period. The Labour supporters will be flocking back to the comfort blanket once they again realize the utopia that Scotland and particularly Glasgow are due to the benevolence of 50 years of Labour rule.
And never forget, that even though you can become a millionaire by being a Labour MP, our constituents do not mind as they realize the great job we are doing for each and every one of them.
P.S. The great leader is an election asset and we must never forget that "he is the right man for the job"
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#29 - "Let's see Labour pull that off across the whole country in a national vote. "
I wonder in how many constituencies the voting records would need to disappear before the media started investigating - obviously more than one but would 3 do it? 10? 56?
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If you thought that all the Labour people who are being interviewed on TV at the moment all sound the same, the reason is here. First they got told what to think, now they are told what to say.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jun/05/purnell-labour-briefing
And what right wing gutter press leaked this news, well it was the Guardian, the times they are a changing.
You would probably laugh if you read something like this about Zimbabwe, but this is politics Broon style. Chouchescu anyone.
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The BBC' s coverage of this election (at least in Scotland) has been abysmal. The pro-New Labour, anti-SNP bias is astonishing. Just what hold does this dismal party have over the BBC post Hutton ? Brian T please try to show more a wee bit more honesty and less political bias to New Labour. They really are a total shower and remember you do not know who your next paymasters are !
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"Not sure I entirely buy the SNP argument that this was a confidence vote in the Scottish Government. It was more about protest against Labour." - Brian Taylor
I have a huge problem with this staement in the fact that not a single BNP or UKIP counsellor was elected to represent Scotland. If YOUR surmisal of the circumstance leads you to believe that the electorate voted overwhelmingly in protest at Labour - I really am approaching incredulity with your point of view.
Surely a vote against labour would have been better spent on the Tories or the Lib Dems, even the greens or an independent. But for the electorate to vote one after the other in favour of the incumbent Scottish Government it means they must at least endorse what they are seeing at Holyrood - why on earth would they bother otherwise?
These cheap, throwaway comments do little to represent such a large shift in voter loyalty and all too often I'm seeing these comments coming hours after the representative of the "other parties" speak.
Nick Griffin gets a raw deal from the BBC, the Labour, Tory and Lid Dem parties - but he still managed to return 2 MEP's on the back of a mandate that represents an opinion of the electorate - however racist or unconventional it may be.
You call it protest voting - I call it a shift in loyalties. You've completely missed the point with regards to people's right to vote. By your flawed logic - if we want a change in policy in Scotland and we vote for anyone other that the big 3, we're nothing but daft wee eedjits who've only "wasted our vote" in protest at the incumbent westminster government
It's lies Brian and you know it is.
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the best comment i have heard is the person who said remember a vote for labour is now a wasted vote....lol
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Jack McConnell said the Scottish Government should do less better and he was criticised from all sides.
Alex Salmond does absolutely nothing (arguably very well) and takes the majority of the Scottish vote in the Euro election.
Take care. You get what you reward...
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How incisive of you Brian to spot that as the SNP vote rose the Labour vote fell. Yes of course it is a vote against Labour, it is a vote against Labour because people have caught on that Labour have been short changing the Scottish electorate for years and now they have a realistic alternative to the old Labour/Tory monopoly.
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People, a few days ago I remarked that we should watch the portrayal of the swine flu in Scotland, that Labour and the Unionist establishment were champing at the bit to go for the SNP.
BBC Scotland, in an item at 10:30 PM, have just broadcast the first thinly veiled criticism of how the outbreak is being handled here. A call to a sufferer revealed an apparent 'difficulty' in being checked for the disease.
So, it's started already, a virus that from the outset was predicted to escalate dramatically is doing just that. That is exactly what viruses do when they take hold in any community as it has done in the West of Scotland.
Watch this space !!
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Brian i read your blog and usually its pretty finely balanced. Not today its not.
As an example take this statement.
"It was more about protest against Labour."
So brian where did you get this information? Did you canvass every labour disaffected voter in scotland?
Do tell because i dont recall reading any exit polls brian.
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Of course Brian is entirely right in saying "Do these results translate directly into a UK or Scottish general election? No.", but I'll wager I'm not the only one who has put the percentages from Thursday into Electoral Calculus' new Scotland calculator. They predict:
Party, %, Seats, +/-
SNP, 29.06%, 27, +21
LAB, 20.81%, 15, -26
LIB, 11.50%, 9, -2
CON, 16.82%, 7, +6
The pluses and minuses don't add up because they predict that Edinburgh North and Leith will go to "OTH". They also predict both Murphy's and Capn. Darling's seats going Tory.
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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44. At 10:43pm on 08 Jun 2009, greenockboy:
It's the same for all Governments when things like swine flu happen. It's rarely, if ever, the sitting Government's fault, but when things go wrong many people look to blame someone or something.
It doesn't matter who is in power. Sturgeon is working well. No panic, everyone who needs Tamiflu is getting it. The problem appears to be local based depending on your GP and NHS Trust. There have been conflicting stories bouncing about, but nothing that any Government, Westminster or Holyrood, can be held responsible for.
If swine flu really accelerates, then Scottish Government could be on a hiding to nothing if reported badly. For example, if they decide to close certain public buildings etc to stem the flow, then people will say they are overreacting and infringing on rights etc etc. But if they leave these buildings open then they will be accused of complacancy.
There are already emergency powers available which can be implented by the First Minister/Health Secretary. But these plans will have been drawn up by professionals, based on experiences with other pandemics around the world.
The media needs to be very responsible here.
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Why would disaffected Labour voters endorse Labour's opposition at Holyrood? - In protest no less....
Anyone? A jam tart and some homemade lemonade to the soul who explains it to me in very small words so I can understand this terribly complicated thing called democracy and the thing that creates it called voting.
Protest vote indeed... awa' an biel yer heed Taylor.
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"He's a real nowhere man,
Living in a nowhere land,
Saying lots of nowhere things,
To nobody." (Lennon and MacArtney)
Says all that needs to be said about Brown, I suggest.
The Labour Party can pretend to be united but I doubt many folk in the UK are buying it. The reality of the UK Euro vote is it established Scotland as centre left politically leaning and England as right to far right politically leaning.
This is not a new phenomenon it has always been like this given Scotland's inherently Presbyterian approach to politics prior to 1707 coupled with the inherent socialist approach of Scottish communities to this day. An approach to the community that my English friends who come to stay in Galloway acknowledge no longer exists in much of England which is why yet another couple are moving themselves and two young girls here from Kent. They see a better sense of community, better schools and a better quality of life than Rochester offers.
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A protest vote for the incumbent Scottish Administration, how times have changed. How does that relate to local council level? I have never seen a vote where people willingly give local control to a specific party by way of protest. By-elections certainly. Euro elections, OK I'll buy that. To hand over control of local councils for a substantial period of time. That looks more like a political shift and drift away from a failed party.
I can't understand why this expenses row is being trotted out as an excuse either. The Tories have been most heavily hit by it with duck ponds and manure etc. The Torylites keep saying it's affecting their vote, but it runs far deeper than that. There is a huge disaffection in Scotland with a party which has become complacent and self serving, to the point of keeping things in the family quite literally. Until they stop mouthing the platitudes and breaking election promises they will continue to lose support to the new "peoples party". And no amount of spin or window dressing will cover this up.
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#24 slaintemha
"Call me Dave either has to come up with the complete reform of the House of Lords as a UK elected 'senate', Westminster reverting to the English devolved assembly, coupled with fiscal autonomy for Scotland or become known as the PM in whose watch the Union of Parliaments finally collapsed."
Spot on, I'd say, but even that may now be too little, too late.
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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#51
51. At 11:18pm on 08 Jun 2009, Brownedov wrote:
#24 slaintemha
"Call me Dave either has to come up with the complete reform of the House of Lords as a UK elected 'senate', Westminster reverting to the English devolved assembly, coupled with fiscal autonomy for Scotland or become known as the PM in whose watch the Union of Parliaments finally collapsed."
Brownedov, gone all wobbly on Independence!
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#31 hadrianswall
"What amazes me is that the Unionists, typified by Brian, are sleepwalking into dissolution of the Union. Fine by me. I have not seen one single media article about the danger to the UK."
Agreed. I can only assume they believe the danger to be too severe to mention. Understandable from the English Tories who will not wish to frighten those of their core vote already in danger of defecting to even more archly unionist UKIP, but I'd have thought anyone with a modicum of intelligence left in NuLab [Lord Mandy, perhaps?] would have recognised the signs and started on exactly that agenda.
OTOH, if they believe the union to be lost already then there is little point [from their viewpoint] in drawing it to the attention of their less intellectually endowed colleagues, especially if it rebounds by increasing support for the likes of the English Democrats. I'm still surprised that nobody independent in the dead-tree press has yet managed to get something published on it, though.
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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#53
No point in denying it now! Brownedov.
Talk about sucking a cactus!
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"It was more about protest against Labour"
Which echoes the ungracious sentiments of Conservative David Mundell who was in the panel for the Scottish part of the Sunday night Election Programme along with Nicola Sturgeon, Labour's Anne McGuire who came across as patroniser of the year, the Lib-Dem Willie Rennie who true to Lib-Dem form managed to put the BNP and SNP in the same sentence and the impartial Glenn Campbell.
People like David Mundell actually believe that the SNP exists on a protest vote. It's similar to the desperate and irrational belief amongst Labour and their pals after the 2007 SNP victory that the SNP Government in Holyrood would collapse in weeks and restore everything to its natural order. In that surreal World of Oz where neither Labour, the Tories nor the Lib-Dems held power, the cries of, "Auntie Em, Auntie Em take me home!", rang out amongst the English Roses, Union Torches and Custard Birds of those who should have been chosen.
The cosy turn-about world of the Labour and Tory Tweedledee and Tweedledum where the Lib-Dems have a walk on part as Alice simply cannot accomodate a party who don't play the game. A party who not only do not want to play the game but who want to go and play in another park altogether.
For those of the political establishment, the SNP must always be a protest vote because they can't comprehend of it in any other way.
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Worth looking at the European election figures in a slightly different way - 1st and 2nd places.
Firstly all those councils in which the SNP is neither 1st nor 2nd
Borders is a Con/L-D battle : Con ahead by 6.6%
Then the councils which are SNP/L-D contests
Council, % Diff SNP less Lib-Dem
Argyll and Bute, 6.8%
Highlands, -0.3%
Orkney, -11.7%
Shetland, -16.1%
The councils which are SNP/Con contests
Council, % Diff SNP less Con
Angus, 17.6%
Moray, 15.1%
Aberdeenshire, 12.5%
Perth and Kinross, 5.8%
Stirling, 5.7%
Edinburgh, 2.3%
South Ayrshire, -4.1%
East Renfrewshire, -5.8%
Dumfries and Galloway, -10.6%
The councils which are SNP/Lab contests
Council, % Diff SNP less Lab
Western Isles, 25%
Dundee, 18.7%
North Ayrshire, 12.6%
Falkirk, 11.9%
Aberdeen City, 10.1%
West Lothian, 9.7%
Clackmannanshire, 8.1%
East Ayrshire, 6.4%
Midlothian, 4.4%
East Dumbartonshire, 4%
East Lothian, 3.8%
South Lanarkshire, 2.9%
Renfrewshire, 2.8%
Inverclyde, 1%
West Dunbartonshire, 0%
Fife, -0.2%
Glasgow, -2.8%
North Lanarkshire, -3%
Did someone somewhere suggest that votes for a party which polled 1st or 2nd in 31 out of 32 council areas was somehow a "protest vote"?
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#55 DougtheDug
I agree, from the unionist establishment perspective a vote for the SNP IS a protest vote. It's a protest that's getting louder and louder and is not going away. In a sense it's also a protest vote from a nationalist perspective, a protest against everything rotten inherent in the union. But from a nationalist perspective it's much, much more. It's about what happens when the demands of the protesters have been met, and we get on with the job of governing an independent Scotland.
Keep your heads in the sand, unionists. You're making the independence process much smoother, and ultimately that's to everyone's benefit.
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The party line from the BBC in Scotland about a protest vote. The point is that more people voted for the SNP than did for Labour. Personally I never have and never will vote Labour who depend not on policy but on tradition to garner votes. How often do we hear this is a Labour area, or my father etc always voted Labour. When Labour lose this section of the support in their heartlands then they are finished.
It is quite pathetic but predictable of the BBC to report the elections in this manner as if its tragic for Scotland that Labour support is falling, personally I could not be happier to see the Labour party become the irrelevance they already are.
People are making an informed reasonable choice in voting SNP because they believe they stand for Scotland, I have voted SNP for 20 years and it is very pleasing to see that despite the constant slurs and propoganda by the BBC in Scotland that their popularity continues to grow.
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#55 DougtheDug -
"Labour's Anne McGuire who came across as patroniser of the year."
Mercifully; Stirling's returns in the Euro Election results - in which Labour came in a weak third, 4% behind the Tories who were in turn, 5.7% behind the SNP - give us our strongest indication yet that the unloved Mrs McGuire's term as MP for Stirling will be over come the next General Election.
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"It was more about protest against Labour"
I support the SNP but I also think that Brian was right. The protest vote wasn't for the SNP, it was the Labour Holyrood vote (33%) melting away (to 20%) with the beneficiaries being the "others" (20%). The reality is that the Labour vote melted but only two elements benefited -the Tories marginally and the "others". Obviously the SNP suffered only a minor drop in the Holyrood vote but it's important because of the percepion that the EU election isn't important. Comparing the Euro vote now with the last Euro vote is just silly. Compare it with the Holyrood vote to see realistically what's happening.
I don't know if it's what Brian meant but Labour voters protested by not voting Labour in droves. However, they didn't vote for anyone who'd be a meaningful competitor for Westminster votes.
Let's be realistic, the SNP did not improve on the Holyrood position and these figures only show that Labour voters protested by not voting for any meaningful party which wouldn't be a choice for Westminster elections.
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I thought downplaying a historic first for the SNP was the opposition's job and not the BBC's.
I'm sorry Brian but you are simply regurgitating Labour's press release from yesterday.
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Thank God! I thought for a moment there the country was in chaos!
But no, amidst all the trouble, strife and turmoil of everyday life: people losing their jobs; people losing their homes; people losing their hope, we find that, like a Terminator that's been buried under the rubble of a collapsed skyscraper: first a single light blinks on, slowly the creature stirs, it opens one good eye, it stands and stumbles through the dust cloud, one unsteady foot in front of the other. It's STILL ALIVE! Amazing! All the rubble in the world cannot stop this machine. A relieved BBC breathlessly reports the wonderful news desperate people everywhere have been hoping to hear: "Brown's new cabinet meet in No 10".
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Bighullabaloo, loved the Murphy thing!
An utterly ridiculous conclusion Mr Taylor , I feel your shame!
As for the Newsnight programme, with Mundell and McGuire you really have to laugh at their assertions , but you don't have to laugh at BBC assertions because you and I PAY for them.
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I don't think that we can translate this directly into a general or Scottish election result. This said, it seems more than a bit silly to say that those who voted SNP did so as a protest. The SNP are in government in Scotland and if people were not happy with the way they are running things then they simply would not vote for them, even in protest against Gordon and Co.
Come on Brian surely you can do better than this.
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"An MP who claimed £1,645 on expenses for a floating duck island is to sell it to raise money for charity. Adam Partridge, auctioneer, said he believed the duck house could sell for much higher than its normal value of about £300."
Anyone else here notice a slight discrepency in the above?
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This is good news for Scotland and the UK, I have never voted Labour and I will never consider voting for them until Scotland is either Independent or the UK is a federal state. A day when Scotland has as much freedom to raise and spend tax money as the Isle of Man.
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#65 bigH
No, when you've seen the mark-up that these posh London stores put on things, you're only surprised that they didn't charge £1,800. That's why the poor clerks in the Fees Office needed their John Lewis list. But it's a good demonstration that our MPs know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
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It is worth remembering that the SNP increased it's vote.
More people voted SNP this time than last. 89,502 MORE to be accurate.
Some protest.
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#67 handclapping
"when you've seen the mark-up that these posh London stores put on things, you're only surprised that they didn't charge £1,800."
How do we know whoever he bought it from charged him anything like the amount he claimed? There weren't any receipts. That's one of reasons people are so angry about it.
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Even Angus McLeod accepts that votes for the SNP are not protest votes.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6459420.ece
"Nationalists are now the natural party of government north of the Border"
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"However, at the very least, the voters were not apparently deterred in any way from giving their support to the SNP by the party's performance at Holyrood."
Incumbent's performance in Holyrood v Incumbent's performance in Westminster - compare and contrast
Holyrood - government by consensus, lower business rates, council tax freeze, reduction in prescription costs, support for renwables
Westminster - illegal war, misrepresentation of reasons for war, 100,000 Iraqi civilians dead, embroilment in Aghanistan with poorly equipped and supported troops, lax control of financial system, tax raids on people's pensions, no decisions on power production policies, 12 years presiding over a troughing culture, crony populated cabinet.
Gosh that's a really difficult one Brian
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Re 56 Old nat
There is another perspective, between 70 and 75% of voters didn't bother to vote. I would guard against rushing into sweeping generalisations at this time, the one real fact is that in most places around 70% of people voted for none of the above.
the rubbish about protest votes for the SNP is not worth talking about but it feeds the paranoia that exists within many posters on this site, they feel good that they are being persecuted.
Democracy is the real victim here, when we see the BNP getting elected it is a sad day for us all.
So feel free to analyse the few votes cast, hypothesise until you feel satisfied, but remember the vast majority of the electorate didn't feel any of the candidates or parties were worth voting for.
The results certainly don't give a powerful statement of a nation bursting for independence. It is more a statement of a nation that is looking for leadership and new thinking. I feel they are in for a long wait.
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Now that Tom Harris MP, is showing disallusionment with his boss, can we expect more Labour MPs to join in?
See his blog for comments; we should thank him for his courage to speak out and encourage him, in his moral dilema, to go the extra mile and leave the Labour Party.
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Protest vote?
Of course it's a protest vote.
As the Tory and LibDem votes dropped as well as Labour's its obviously a protest vote against the Union.
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One gathers that some of those who are still clinging to the debris of what is sometimes loosely referred to as Scottish Labour are in denial in respect of the sinking of the vessel aboard which they had clambered in the hope of getting their snouts in the trough. The unmitigated disaster which has overtaken them is apparently not preventing them from crying out to those in sounder vessels that the fact that they have been tipped out into the briny deep, unable to swim in that element and without a lifebelt to support them, does not mean that they are drowning. Whether they can face facts or not, the fact remains that certain facts cannot convincingly be denied, such as the following ones.
In France the governing party (the presidential-majority party known as UMP) won 28 per cent of the popular vote in the Euro-elections as opposed to about 16 per cent for the socialist party. This result is considered to represent a resounding victory for the governing party there and a clear vote of confidence in it. The share of the Scottish popular vote won by the governing Scottish National Party in the same elections is reported to be 29.1 per cent, about 10 per cent more than Labour's share of the vote. As one can see, the share of the Scottish vote won by the SNP is greater than the share of the French vote won by the UMP. This means that the Scottish governing party did better than the French governing party, whose convincing defeat of its main rival is acknowledged. Well, reluctant though I be to rob chaps of their delusions, particularly when these may be all that is keeping them afloat, I am prepared to make an exception in this case.
Another indicator that support for the independentist cause is growing has just become available, as will not have gone entirely un-noticed. I refer to TNS-BMRB polling, which, as the Herald newspaper is reporting, is producing time-series data which shows that the level of support for Scottish independence is holding firm and that it is among those previously opposed to it that there appears to be greater uncertainty now over their stance. There is, in other words, less resistance to the proposition than previously, as the Euro-election result in Scotland confirms. As Chris Eynon of the polling company is reported to have said, "With a solid foundation of support and this gradual weakening of opposition and increased indecision, the potential to reinforce the case and build support for independence in Scotland is clearly apparent." I rest my case.
Anyone want to buy a duck house, by the way. Apparently there is one going cheap. Or should that be 'quack'?
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pro-loco @32:
"The results of the euro election just past weren't so good for the tories either (in the UK) and large portions of their core vote might well be diluted by 'protest votes' to UKIP or the BNP."
- - - - - - - - -
I often read comments on this blog that the English do not understand the dynamics of Scottish politics, which is broadly true. It is surprisng to me, therefore, that so many Scots do not realise that the same is true in reverse. The comment above is a classic example. The BNP are not, as so often described, a far right party. Extremist and unpleseant yes, but as their manifesto makes very clear, apart from their views on immigration, they would be far easier to pigeon-hole as far left. They won seats in previously staunchly Labour heartlands, not Tory ones. If you read the BNP maifesto it is obvious that very few, if any, Tory votes will come their way; when did you last hear a Tory campaign FOR nationalisation?
The Tories may leak votes in England to UKIP in Euro elections, although in Westminster elections most of these tend to return to the Tory fold, but the BNP are no threat to Cameron. For Brown it is a whole different story - a BNP vote in a general election in Labour seats is not at all out of the question.
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Re 75
What the situation in France has to do with Scotland is at best questionable most likely irrelevant. Most Scots I would say are definitely not supporters of France or all things French unless they are playing against England at anything. France provides most of the reasons not to remain part of the EU.
However your point on Independence has a basic flaw. Support may well be remaining steady, but it has not increased. If anything the effect of the largely competent job done by the SNP government is to lessen the desire for more constitutional change.
the SNP seem to be happy to settle back and wait for a Tory victory in Westminster and then hope to use this as a springboard to independence. I feel that this strategy may work, recent events certainly support that view. But that strategy is poor in that I would like to vote for Independence because it would improve our lot, not because it is the least worst option. We need some radical thinking and a positive vision. The current climate is a huge opportunity for the SNP, they seam unable to offer the choice the vision to convince the undecided. You ignore one key word in your quote " potential". The opportunity may well pass if Alec doesn't show some courage and move the debate on Independence forward.
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#76 MalcolmW2
You are absolutely right about the BNP taking votes from Labour in England - as UKIP does from the Tories.
It's interesting that in all parts of mainland UK, the traditional big two parties (and their also-ran friends in the Lib-Dems) are increasingly failing to capture the hearts and minds of voters.
Issues are increasingly more important than tribal loyalties.
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#76 MalcolmW2 #78 oldnat
Perhpas you could ask flamepatricia on NR's blog, someone who consistently said that they would vote for the BNP. From her other views I don't think she was or had been a Labour voter. It may be that the first BNP cndidates were returned in former Labour areas, but that is because Labour has more against it at the moment than the Tories. I wouldn't underestmate the capacity of some in the wealthier counties to hold similar views on immigration and consequently vote in the same way.
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For those who may consider that comparing the electoral fortunes of one governing party with those of another governing party participating in the same elections is not a valid exercise, my #75 and others in this thread may, nevertheless, serve to provide a context in which to examine how the Scottish Euro-election results compare with results in a part of France which has its own legislative assembly and autonomist movement, namely Corsica.
One can say in broad terms that the autonomist movement is split there but that it registered a very considerable success on Sunday in the form of the result for the Green Party (Europe Ecologie), which advocates a greater degree of Corsican autonomy than exists at present.
Under the banner of Daniel Cohn-Bendit's superbly well organized environmentalist alliance, the Corsican Greens won 26.1 per cent of the vote (compared to the SNP's 29.1 per cent in Scotland), which is the second-largest share of the Euro-vote on the Island of Beauty, the presidential-majority UMP winning 26.36 per cent of it (which is slightly less than its share of the vote throughout France).
This success for the Corsican Greens resulted in the election of Mr Francois Alfonsi as a Green MEP representing the South-East Euro-parliamentary region of France. Mr Alfonsi has been a political activist for a good many years in support of Corsican autonomy. As it happens, he has an opinion on the subject of the Scottish Government and has commented on the Scottish National Party as follows: "The SNP has two MEPs in the Euro-group to which I belong. It is in government in Scotland on a minority basis. No doubt its progress will not stop there. At the next elections for the Scottish Parliament it will return to office in force, with a proper majority, to accomplish its historic task of securing the full and complete recognition of the historic rights of the people of Scotland in Europe."
Evidently, the Corsican Euro-Greens, who have done remarkably well in the Euro-elections and are challenging the dominance of the establishment on their island, are very well aware of the SNP and wish it well. For some reason they seem to think that what happens in Scotland, not least in the course of EU-wide elections, has a bearing on their little corner of the EU and on the situation of under-represented peoples within it generally. In the context of European Union parliamentary elections, no part of the jigsaw puzzle is irrelevant to the other parts.
As for strategy and vision, there is in my personal opinion much for the SNP to benefit from in studying the successful Cohn-Bendit-led Euro-election campaign in France. If the SNP associates itself with the Euro-environmentalists and autonomists who are willing to associate themselves with it, it will be participating in a Euro-alliance which, in my opinion, will not be harmful to it and may very well assist it in achieving its aims.
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The days of seeing the SNP as recipients of protest votes are gone. They are in government now. Votes for the Lib Dems os Tories are the new protest votes.
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Why has my previous post not been posted? Am I too late?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Protest vote my a.s.!
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A protest vote is what might have been expected against a less-than-popular government at an average mid-term election.
The most apt thing for this debacle of a Labour outfit was a 'mercy vote' - and at about 15% of the UK vote, that's just about what they got!! :-)
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#44, 47
Agree that swine flu shouldn't be a party political football, but it is newsworthy nonetheless.
Confirmed cases as at 9th June Scotland 232 UK 675.
Why is Scotland's published rate per head of population approx 4 times the UK published rate? Is Scotland handling it differently from the rest of the UK? If so are they learning from each other and sharing best practice?
All worthy of examination by the media but not for cheap political point scoring.
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If Independence Activists has displayed a few of these poster near polling stations, it would have made the population of Scotland think twice about voting for the Labour, Liberal or Conservative Parties.
ARE YOU VOTING FOR
A POLITICIAN WHO
WILL STAND UP FOR
SCOTLAND'S RIGHTS
or
Do you want to
be represented by
a Political Puppet of
a London based Party
----------------------
Did you know 6,000 MILES
of SCOTTISH SEA
was made ENGLISH in 1999
by the Lib / Lab Pack
-----------------------
Do you think these posters could have got the SNP more votes?
Please comment at
http://www.oilofscotland.org
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HOW TO PROTECT THE SCOT'S AGAINST SWINE FLU
With regards to Swine Flu, the Scottish Government should pass a law for every business in Scotland, especially all food companies to install alcohol gel dispensers to help stop the spread of Swine Flu.
If you have touched something that has the virus on it, then go to eat you will be in for a swine of time.
However this precaution will make people think
"Oh I Had Better Wash My Hands"
"Just as well there is some alcohol gel"
"As there is No Sink, in this place"
So far swine flu is mild, if you catch it now you will build up an immunity to it. However when the Winter of this year comes along the mild Swine Flu we have just now, will more than likely mutate into a stronger virus.
A stronger virus that will start to kill in large numbers as history has shown.
Nicola, if you want to get a cheap supplier of Alcohol Gel Dispensers visit http://www.oilofscotland.org and look for an e-mail link.
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