Scottish Euro elections
UPDATE AT 1009:
I'm filing from the Royal Mile in Edinburgh, where the results have just been declared.
As billed, two seats each for the SNP and Labour, one for the Tories, one for the Lib Dems.
In terms of voting share, the SNP are placed first, with 29.1%, Labour second with 20.8%, Tories third with 16.8% and Lib Dems fourth, with 11.5%.
The SNP's Ian Hudghton described it as a great victory for his party, while Labour's David Martin said his party had managed to hold onto two seats during what he called "unnecessary in-fighting".
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UPDATE AT 0922, MONDAY:
Last result in this morning in Scotland from the European elections.
That's the Western Isles
The SNP has consolidated its leading position by taking 43.3% of the vote with Labour second, way back on 18.4%.
The full formal declaration will be made shortly, but it still looks like two seats each for the SNP and Labour one each for Tories and Lib Dems.
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UPDATE AT 2353:
We won't know the full Scottish result until the Western Isles declares, but the picture as is from the Edinburgh counting centre is a big victory for the SNP, in terms of voting share.
They're on 29%, Labour are just under 21%, the Tories just under 17% and the Lib Dems just over 11%.
In terms of seats though - doesn't look like any change.
Scotland is down from seven Euro seats to six and looks like those will split two each to the SNP and Labour, one to the Tories and one to the Lib Dems.
No change in seats then - but all change in votes.
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UPDATE AT 2212:
Labour has won in another council area - but only just.
North Lanarkshire puts Labour first, with the SNP just behind and the others nowhere.
But, in neighbouring South Lanarkshire, the SNP takes first place.
Couple of others - the Tories are clearly in first place in the Scottish Borders with the Lib Dems second, while, in Aberdeenshire, its SNP, Tory, and Lib Dem, in that order.
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UPDATE AT 2156:
We have now had the result in East Renfrewshire. In Westminster terms, that's the seat of the Scottish secretary, Jim Murphy.
In tonight's poll in that area, the Conservatives have come first, the SNP second and Labour third.
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UPDATE AT 2150:
More still. The SNP has taken first place in Edinburgh with the Tories second, Labour third and the Liberal Democrats fourth.
That's a third of the councils declared so far - and it's still looking like victory for the SNP in terms of share of the vote.
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UPDATE AT 2145:
And there's more.
In terms of share of the vote, It's Labour and the SNP neck in neck in West Dunbartonshire; the SNP has out-polled Labour in Dundee by nearly two to one; in Fife Labour only just managed to out-vote the Nationalists and, in East Lothian, the SNP came first.
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Edinburgh City Chambers, and the very first Scottish results are starting to arrive in the European elections.
Councils all across Scotland are doing their sums and transmitting the outcome to the Capital for a central calculation of Scotland's membership of the European Parliament.
First indications? Very bad night for Labour - with the SNP looking set to take first place in the popular vote.
Whether that is enough to win the SNP an extra seat, remains to be seen.
Under the complicated European counting mechanism, the first-placed party has to out-pace its rivals by a fair degree to gain that extra seat.
Other straws in the wind include a decent showing by the Greens, so far.
More later . . .
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~59~RS~)
Comments
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Gordon Brown must be finished, judging by the early results.
In the North East of England, the vote is down 9%. They appear to be geting slaughtered up in Scotland.
One worrying point. What each party wants to achieve in the Euro elections, bar the UKIP, is not very clear. Either it is me or the campaigning simply wasn't thought to be worth the effort. After all, Labour was bound to get thumped, so why waste money on expensive advertising?
Going to do a greenockboy and predict the headlines tomorrow:
In England - Brown under increased pressure to resign following disasterous results.
In Scotland - Labour MP receives backing over expenses issue. Euro results in. Labour retains key seats......
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Neil, I noticed you payed reference to percentage in terms of votes.
Personally I think these elections will show a dreadful turnout through out the whole of Europe.
Any idea what the turnout numbers are in the Edinburgh area?.
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BBC Scotland's political editor, Brian Taylor, predicted the SNP would be placed first in the vote: "In the Scottish parliamentary elections, they outpolled Labour for the first time ever - the first time in 50 years that Labour had not come first in an election in Scotland," he said, adding: "It's going to happen again, in my view."
Yes, Brian, your "view" about how well the SNP is doing has been coming through loud and clear in all your recent blog articles - NOT!
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Turnout is likely to be low.
I think the significant point has already been noted by bigh in #3.
But that almost certainly means no early general election. Although you cannot extrapolate EU results to first past the post, the underlying trend must be worrying for Labour.
The usual statements by all the parties will be the normal, so no point in analysing those! You know: "our voters stayed at home", "a tremendous result", "the PM is getting on with the work of Government", "we've found the shelves".
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In Cornwall Labour came 6th - behind the Cornish Nationalists.
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Brian
can you give us a projection for the Greens in Scotland? Are they getting close to taking Labour's second seat and how much of the vote would they need - I'm assuming if they replicate the 14% they got in Edinburgh, they would get one?
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Talking about turnout, in South Lanarkshire it was 24.6%
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#2 derekbarker
derek ;-)
In this system (you are familiar with it?), it's not the turnout, who bothered to vote from the body party allegiance, but which party gets the most votes that counts - just as well, or the Labour party would be doomed even more!
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Well, will we see the percentage of the Labour vote in Scotland drop to its lowest level for decades? And will Brian Taylor cease his implicit scorn of the SNP?
To the first question: yes, almost certainly.
To the second: no, almost certainly. Some of us are losing faith in BBC impartiality.
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#4
Neil, why be so bitter! these are not normal times, contrary to your statement, people are in difficult times due to a world wide recession
and sometimes voting is the last thing on their minds.
I wonder if you favour an Australian compulsory voting system?.
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Exciting times, but I'm hoping that someone will pick up David Dimbelby for patronising the Western Isles for "not watching TV on the Sabbath" as we're not counting until Monday
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dwmacleod:
#6.
It's unrealistic that the Greens could gain a swing of 14 percent from Labour.
It will be interesting results and I would not be suprised, anything could happen!
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#9 argyll_man
But, argyll_man, that Brian (if we say so) isn't partial to the SNP, the results in any way reflecting well for the SNP, are verbalised with due emphasis! That's better!
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#7
Hamish that's pretty awful, almost as bad as the droids vote in Cornwall.
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#6 Oldnat.
Labour behind the Cornish Nationalist! That is incredible. Labour are surrounded on all sides getting slaughtered.
Freedom
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Is anyone else watching the tosh on TV as I am?
How can other parties claim time and time again that the SNP are simply gaining protest votes? I am not suggesting that no one voted for the SNP in protest, but to suggest they were voted for as the lesser of two evils because it happens that Labour have failed more often then the SNP Government is ridiculous! If this is the case why are voters not supporting the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives or another party? Why have we voted SNP?
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To clarify:
Yorkshire and the Humber has 6 MEPs.
We (Scotland) have 6 MEPs.
Scoland, a nation, has the same significance as the Leeds area.
That sound OK to you?
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Take a bow Yorkshire & Humber!
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Well! on a seriously low turnout that SNP have failed to make a real impact and only just push ahead in a very dubious national vote?.
Labour seem likely to hold at least two seats.
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10. At 10:55pm on 07 Jun 2009, derekbarker wrote:
#4
Neil, why be so bitter! these are not normal times, contrary to your statement, people are in difficult times due to a world wide recession
and sometimes voting is the last thing on their minds.
I wonder if you favour an Australian compulsory voting system?.
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Erm, can you explain why you think I am bitter? I was making a general statement, not having a go about low turnout. Many people are totally disinterested in the EU elections.
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derek
All Scotland (except W Isles)
SNP - 29.0%
Lab - 20.8%
Con - 16.9%
LD - 11.5%
Every other party down. SNP up 10%.
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OK Neil, I'll pass on the bitter point and agree with your assertion of the low turnout.
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#19DB
How much of an impact is deemed 'serious' in your view Derek? If it turns out to be SNP 30% and Labour on 20% share of the vote is that a big enough impact for you?
#17 Aye
Hey aye, nice to talk to you again. I agree it's just not right as has been demonstrated with other small EU countries representation compared to ours. Unfortunately we're seen as no more than a region in terms of the UK EU elections, piece of nonesense. The sooner independence rolls around the better. Does anyone know how they determined which UK 'regions' lost an MEP from the previous total, by my reckoning only half the regions lost one MEP, including us.
For all the talk of voting for indpendents in England (NR's blog) I'm surprised that the Jury team/English Demcorats haven'emade more of an impact, but then again the Tory vote doesn't seem to have risen much at all, leaving UKIP the Greens, and in some cases the BNP, to take up the slack. Sending fascists to represent the UK in the EU, Mosley would be happy.
Wales returning a UKIP MEP, is Scotland the only constituent nation in favour of Europe? Fisheries policy anyone....
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#21
Oldnat I wont argue against your finding and yes! the SNP national share of the vote has increased, however I wonder if you share the same sentiments, that these EU elections seemed to have favoured the right wing parties generally across Europe and of course that is a worrying trend.
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Wonderful quote from the live text coverage: "I think this is a great personal victory for Michael Foot this evening," says the Times's Daniel Finkelstein of the man who led Labour to a crashing defeat in 1983. "He has emerged as not the biggest loser in Labour's history."
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Have you seen the Welsh result!?!
Oh dear. Never mind Scotland, we know what would happen. But this is probably bigger news.
One of David D's panellists from the Times (?) said some Labour MPs will be cautious about replacing Gordon Brown as they don't know "what happens next". Well, they cannot possibly get any worse.
I think one of the big guns is going to challenge Gordon directly now, and this week.
But unless vote of confidence spoils things, I cannot see Labour going for an election within 3 months.
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The Tories ahead of Labour in Wales! Labour are dying.
Freedom
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We've had the first "Labour voters stayed at home" excuse.
From Wales of course.
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Is anyone else watching the Welsh Labour representative?
"Our core votre didn't turn out in most places as they're disenchanted";
"We were pipped by 7,000 votes"
Is this the bunker mentality of the Labour party UK wide now, 'if I can't see you you can't see me'.
I did enjoy AS interview with Dimbledore, trying to get AS to admit that the vote tonight was a vote against incumbency, to which AS replied no as tht SNP were the incumbent in Scotland and were receivng a resounding backing in the results. To say DD and NR looked uncomfortable, happy days, hope it continues so we gain independence.
Is BT giving regular updates on BBC Scotland, unfotunately there's no mechanism for me to see this coverage (unless someone tells me different) here in Notts.
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Neil_Small147:
"One of David D's panellists from the Times (?) said some Labour MPs will be cautious about replacing Gordon Brown as they don't know "what happens next". Well, they cannot possibly get any worse."
You've seen small groups of Labour MP's wiegh their odds by supporting Gordon Brown. However you are yet to witness a leadership battle between the left and the right within Labour. You also have to keep in mind that Brown's allies may seek to ruin the chances of Labour success if they were to loose a leadership challenge. This is low for Labour and many may not want to kiss and make up with the others who clearly ar ewlooking for whats best for them in the long term.
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#26
There you go again Neil, ignoring all those pre-election voices that were saying labour would finish in 4th place behind UKIP!
As far as the welsh position goes, it's the first time since 1918 that a liberal/conservative party has led over labour. 1918 a very significant date for the right to faith schools?.
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Brian,
On the basis of your report, both Jim Murphy and Ian Gray would lose to the SNP. 'Nuff said.
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Derek barker just admit Labour are a dead and reeking corpse.
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apologies, Jim Murphy loses to the Tories, not the SNP.
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"In terms of seats though - doesn't look like any change."
Not strictly true.
In the 2004 election, Scotland returned two Labour, two SNP, TWO Tory and one Lib Dem.
This time it looks like two Labour, two SNP, ONE Tory and one Lib Dem.
I make that one less for the Tories. If that isn't a change "in terms of seats" then what is?
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Jings and help ma boab how are the BBC going to spin this national drubbing for Labour?
Yorkshire - home of the working man, flat cap and flatter vowels would rather vote fascist than Labour or Conservative.
SNP on a kick in the backside off 30% of the vote in Scotland, Labour behind the Tories and SNP in Renfrewhsire - home of Murphy of Toad Hall; the weasels have really taken over then?
Just how bad does it have to get before the BBC understands that Scots are not simply fed up with Labour but like having a party in government at Holyrood (SNP) who actually stand up for Scotland and do what it says on the tin?
Come the general election, with the Tories a shoe in for Westminster, the opinion polls suggest up to a 50% vote share for the SNP, not so much a protest; more a view that Scotland can and should go it alone.
This is a tipping point and no mistake.
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#33
Peter face the truth, a protest vote across Europe because of the world wide recession, these election results have very little to do with policies and intent and everything to do with dodgy expenses and the recession.
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The "spin" put on the election result by Brian Taylor (and probably the rest of the media and Alex Salmond in the morning) is that the SNP have done remarkably well and that the independence seekers are on the up in a big way. What is not pointed out is that of the electorate in Scotland, only some 9% voted SNP or 91% chose not to vote SNP. Of those who did cast their vote, 71% chose not to vote SNP. These figures prove that there is no mandate for independence (or even a referendum). The people of Scotland are clearly happy with the UK but unhappy with our politicians. Is it too much to expect the media people to actually point out these facts and figures to the public?
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#17 aye-write
Compared to UK Scotland's 6 MEPs, the total of 12 that the Republic of Ireland has is worth bearing in mind, as is the fact that in the course of the Euro-elections Ireland has kept being mentioned in mainland Europe because the re-run of its referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will be of crucial importance to all EU states, while Scotland, because it is in the UK, is not mentioned there at all.
#21 oldnat
The Greens' share of the vote in Scotland would be of interest not least because they have done very well across the EU. Interestingly, in France the Greens under Danny the Red have done better than the centrist MoDem, whose leader's tactics against the Greens backfired spectacularly when he sought to smear Mr Cohn-Bendit in a quite astonishing way. It was the worst tactical mistake that one could possibly imagine, so gross that I cannot even bring myself to relate it to you.
Daniel Cohn-Bendit, incidentally is, frankly, a politician to watch. With possibly as many as 60 Green MEPs now, Cohn-Bendit is already concerning himself with how to maintain the momentum and increase it. Always dangerously brilliant, too dangerously brilliant for several years after May '68 to be allowed into the UK, he is now an uncommonly gifted politician, in the German-speaking world as well as the francophone one, and will use this stronger Green Euro-parliamentary presence to advance the environmentalist agenda across the whole of the EU.
Anyway, for what it may be worth, this is what has struck me most about the Euro-election results so far, aside from the poor performance of left-of-centre parties overall and the "big victory for the SNP, in terms of voting share" in Scotland, of course, as well as the result in Wales . . . plus the fact that a Scottish voter turn-out of just 28 per cent compares rather unfavourably with the pan-EU voter turn-out of about 43 per cent, which itself is rather poor.
Voters across Europe are apparently unenthusiastic about the EU as currently constituted just as voters across Scotland are apparently unenthusiastic about Scotland's constitutional arrangements, which, when one considers independent Ireland's privileged position within the EU in comparison with that of "the Scottish region", is hardly surprising.
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Derek:
#37.
I disagree. In Europe most national Governments are from the right of centre area of politics. In the European results the right of centre parties have apparently done well, but why have Labour not done as well as the other Governments parties in Europe?
Then of course you are complaining about the expenses, but again the Conservatives are doing better then Labour! What's the difference because both groups fiddled the expences...
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#37 derekbarker
Both (policies and intent and dodgy expenses and the recession) very good reasons not to vote for Labour!
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#39 frankly_francophone
The only data I have for the smaller parties is
Greens - 7.4%
UKIP - 5.6%
BNP - 2.6%
SSP - 1%
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#39 frankly_francophone
Lovely to read your posts by the way, especially when you were communicating the view of Gordon Brown and Britain as seen by the rest of Europe - interesting!
"the Scottish region"
We aren't regarded as a nation, you're right.
Aren't we one?
And as I watch the election coverage, I see that we don't have national television either. The story as it relates to Scotland, is only just fitted in.
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JCDBigBear:
#38.
"What is not pointed out is that of the electorate in Scotland, only some 9% voted SNP or 91% chose not to vote SNP."
Thse figures are wrong. In European elections the turn out tends to be low, I highly doubt that 100 percent of the electorate bothered to vote, but I suspect that more then 9 percent of those who voted, voted for the SNP. In fact roughly 30 percent of those who voteed supported the SNP in these elections.
"Of those who did cast their vote, 71% chose not to vote SNP."
The figures are also wrong. These assume that everyone who does not vote for the SNP are not supporters of independence. This is wrong, as much of the other parties support independence such as the Greens.
"These figures prove that there is no mandate for independence (or even a referendum)."
I explained above that you are wrong.
"The people of Scotland are clearly happy with the UK but unhappy with our politicians."
Is the EU elections about the EU or was it a referendum on independence? Your theory is ridiculous. To assume that all votes not for the SNP are against indepedence is ridiculous, it's baseless.
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#41
Aye-write you do seem full of strange comments tonight?.
In your post No8 you seem to favour the result in terms of gains and ignore the turnout and votes?.The snp didn't gain anything in terms of new MEP's
In your post No41 you seem to think that the recession and dodgy expenses seem to belong only to labour?. When AS is under pressure for his expenses and the rest of Europe seem to be making a protest vote against the recession.
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#45 derekbarker
Read oldnat's post #21.
You're saying Labour haven't wrecked the economy and had snouts in the troughs!
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#45
So far aye-write more than half the representation of the SNP at Westminster have been referred to the dodgy expenses category.
I think your trying to hide the SNP's failure to do better in the expenses bag and of course the bigger picture is the vast majority of voters across Europe seem to be against the EU as it stands.
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Aye -write, who wrecked the American economy? and Asia's and the European?
Look, the idea that this recession belongs to GB is so daft, come on! everyone is in this recession, it's a world wide recession.
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#42 oldnat
In France, on the other hand, the Greens are estimated to have between 16 and 16.2 per cent of the popular vote, about the same as the socialists, who have between 16 and 16.8 per cent, ahead of the centrist MoDem on 13 per cent, with the right-of-centre UMP getting the largest share (between 28 and 28.3 per cent).
Martine Aubry is disconsolate, while Daniel Cohn-Bendit is jubilant. Denis Baupin of the Greens has declared that today "will be known as the D-Day of the ecologist movement".
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UKIP are doing very well in this European Election with their simple message
"It costs the 60 million population of the UK £40 Million a Day to be in European Union".
If it was not for the controlled media in the UK the SNP could get a similar message out
"It costs the 5 million population of SCOTLAND £32 Million a Day to be in the UK Union"
Whilst waiting on the Euro results, why not read about Westminster's shocking treatment of the Scot's visit Secrets and Scandels at Rip Off Scotland
http://www.oilofscotland.org
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Derek:
Yes, the world economy appears to be in tatters. However many country's appear to be better placed, Gordon Brown is the only person to blame for our ability to cope in this recession. Britain is worst placed because Britain was spending more as a country even before the recession, individually we have more debt the others around the world and we have less exports then others. This country is based on what we spend, it's our strength and weakness.
The SNP have defeated Labour in Scotlamd. The Conservatives defeated Labour in Wales and the BNP have embarressed Labour in northern England. Are these election results good for Labour?
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I am disappointed by the publics reaction to the British National Party. I heard one person swear at those who cheered at the numbers of voters at a constinuency. Is this the civilised British society that I am suppose to support and defend against BNP policies? The more violent we are towards the British National Party the more support they could potentially gain.
I welcome the wins that the British National Party have gained tonight. The British National Party will now have to answer to the public about their policies and they will now be in the limelight almost 24/7. This will allow us, parties and alike to debate and discuss policies that I believe may help influence the views within the British National Party.
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Result from East Lothian Council Area in EU Election
SNP 26%(+12%), Lab 22% (-8%), Con 21%(No Change), LD 11%(-2%)
10% swing from Labour to SNP in the seat of the Labour Party Leader in Scotland!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GET IN !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bye Bye Gray
Bye Bye Moffat
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We need Single Transferable Vote for all elections NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#51
Thomas, we will disagree there, because of the Brown and Obama stimulus deal to save jobs, houses, banks and other invested interest, Britain continues to grow in terms of investment in schools, hospitals and local authority housing.
Thomas before the recession, Britain's GDP rate was 43% lower than the last conservative governments rate of borrowing. So the case you make is not a true case Thomas.
Thomas of course the results are not good for labour and the fact that the BNP have two MEP's is a disaster for every party in the UK. As I said Thomas these aren't normal times and the pattern of voting is extreme and needs balanced by restoring the economic and progressive jobs scene! that only a labour government can deliver.
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#43 aye_write
Nice to hear from you again.
Scotland is referred to as a nation, of course, in all sorts of contexts in mainland Europe, but its current constitutional status inevitably consigns it to the shadows so far as influence in the European Union is concerned, which goes without saying, of course, although that does not stop me from saying it, needless to say.
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Labour have been beaten in to third overall by UKIP, the BNP has made gains (partly on the back of Gordon Brown spouting their slogan). This is the first time the country has been given any say on Gordon Brown's leadership, Labour have not done this badly since they became a formalized "national" party in 1918. 16% UK wide, 20.5% in Scotland, they even faced stiff competition in Sunderland for goodness sake!
If the man doesn't go now, he dooms his party for a political generation ... I know what I want to happen.
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Derek:
#55.
Your tickering with the edges. Brown and Obama's stimulus plans were different and Obama has actually ensured that their stimulus plans continue for ages yet, but Labour have brought in cuts to our services. The cuts in our services will have a direct effect on our main services such as education and health. They've decreased our budget. It can not been spun, yes, let's celebrate what they have done for us before but it's their cuts through their choices that effect us today.
I also have little thought about the Conservatives. It has been, what? 11 or 12 years, Labour must accept responsibility. The real issue here is that Great Brtiain has long been in the red for years, including pensions etc and it's unsustainable to a large decree. If the recession never came along then we may not have had trouble till later, but that is besides the point.
The real matter for Gordon Brown is, has our money been invested well enough for our country to see a return or at least break even after the recession? It's unacceptable, no matter what was saved by Brown to spend what they have and hail it as a success.
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Derek:
"As I said Thomas these aren't normal times and the pattern of voting is extreme and needs balanced by restoring the economic and progressive jobs scene! that only a labour government can deliver."
These are normal times. Politcs changes overtime, but I feel your view is a minority one. Labour have been defeated in Scotland, Wales and BNP cadidates have been elected as a result. These may be the start of something new, perhaps we should feel privilaged to be alive duing these times.
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I will not comment here in detail on the abysmal reporting of results happening in Scotland covered on BBC UK networked programming regards the European Elections and I unfortunately sneezed and missed the BBC Scotland coverage.
Suffice to say that at time of writing the BBC web site Euro election pages shows a UK results page displaying figures relating to overall UK result despite two regions, Scotland and Northern Ireland, yet to declare officially while the headline for the UK overall result also indicates this is complete ONLY excepting for Northern Ireland while the figures related to Scotland and Scottish parties i.e. the SNP are entirely missing.
The argument that this is because Scotland as a whole had not declared officially at the time is discounted by the fact that this point is not highlighted in the figures displayed and also by the prospective UK general election projections discussed during the coverage on the BBC being based entirely on English and Welsh results, so no problem there with incomplete results being utilised, discussed or disseminated on the BBC.
Scotland again seems to be marginalised in error, through ambivalence, ignorance, poor editorial competence or by practiced design by the BBC.
I suggest if in a UK context the BBC gave the same focus to the BNP in these elections as they have done to the Scottish political situation and the SNP specifically then the electorate in England, Wales and Northern Ireland would soon loose interest in them. But then the BNP have become a useful distraction now south of the border and the SNP are a real threat to the UK so we will watch the continuing evaporation of real Scottish politics in coverage on the BBC and I am afraid as everyone will have noticed recently this includes on BBC Scotland.
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around 30% to the SNP = 2 Seats
...... 20% to Labour = 2 Seats
And Estonia & Luxembourg = 6 Seats Each!!!
The Scottish people are being denied their representation... Only independence can ensure our voice is heard.
Saor Alba!
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Even though Labour have been gubbed in Scotland (and the rest of the UK) it should not be taken as an indicator of what would happen at a general election. The Euro election is a different kettle of fish; very few people are interested in them, as was shown by the low turnout. It is surprising that with the bad publicity that labour have been getting in the media, credit crunch and expenses scandal, that Labour have had such a high vote in Scotland. I suspect that when the general election happens, if it is not soon and Labour manage to hold on to power until next year, then the percentage of voting will increase and this will be mostly the missing Labour votes that will return. I suspect that the Labour voters have shown their dislike for what has happened by staying away from the polling booths in droves. The road ahead for the SNP is still long and hard.
I am not surprised that across Europe there has been a rise, across the board, of right wing parties. The Europeans are a strange bunch of people who, when things start going wrong, tend to vote for strong leaders. The last time Europe was in a similar position of economic woe the Fascists rose to power. The great depression of the 20s and 30s saw the rise of people like Hitler, Franco and Mussolini. In Britain we saw the rise of Mosly and his bunch of thugs. I suspect that once we Europeans get back to that 'good feel' feeling, when the economy returns, then we will see us returning to normal politics.
All that aside, it was still nice to see the SNP doing well.
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The total lack of understanding of Scottish politics south of the border is well shown by this extract from the The Times Online coverage -
"02.13 Word from Scotland suggests that, with some votes still to count, Labour have come third behind the Scottish National Party and UKIP."
They still don't get it. They still imagine that they can extrapolate English patterns to Scotland. Not to mention that BBC Scotland had given all but the Eilan Siar results 2 and a half hours earlier!
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As if to underline what has been written with regards the different approach from the BBC to the SNP compared than to Labour. We now have had two headlines from the BBC in Scotland regarding Labour MP Jim Devine, both are less than harsh and don't name the MP.
Manipulating headline wording is actually an old 'indian trick' where the use of words and the perspective of a story can influence those reading the article.
Many years ago Tony Benn, ex Labour cabinet minister, explained how this worked when reporting on industrial disputes. The workforce were routinely described as having 'demanded' or 'refused', whereas management were described as 'requesting' and 'declined'.
If you take a look at recent headlines from the BBC in Scotland you will notice a tendency to report Labour politicians faced with allegations as 'defending', 'defiant', the allegations themselves are described as 'claims'. In other words the articles are basically presenting the response from the Labour politicians whilst at the same time softening the language used to describe the alleged misdemeanour.
Here is how the Devine story has been covered by the BBC thus far:
Party to probe Scots MP expenses
followed by:
Claims row MP wins local support
Pretty benign headlines, completely at odds with the seriousness of this MP's behaviour and the clearly damaging evidence and as I have said, the MP not identified by name nor is the party.
'Party to probe' gives the impresion that Labour are on the case and that he is being scrutinised, 'wins local support' leads the reader to believe that the MP is perhaps innocent and has the support of those in the community. The impression given is that the pressure has eased, that the MP has had the claims looked at and has won support after this scrutiny - the story is now not important, move along please.
The sentence below is actually the only reference each article makes to Devine's actual expenses claims:
The MP has faced allegations that he submitted receipts for work from a company that may never have existed.
Note that the allegedly fraudulent nature of the claims is ignored as are the very damaging details of both of Devine's claims, the BBC allude to only one and completely ignore the other.
Now let's have a look at the headlines involving a demonstrably appropriate, modest and clearly acceptable claim for food.
Salmond and Tories expenses clash
followed by:
Salmond expenses row stepped up
The first thing is that Salmond is clearly identified in both headlines, the wording is overly dramatic 'clash', 'row stepped up'.
The wording of the second article is the most important, it is saying to the reader that this story has got worse, it has escalated - this story is important!!
There is nothing new at all in the ludicrous smear against Salmond, absolutely nothing has changed. However, the BBC are deliberately presenting the story as if something new has caused it to escalate.
Again, contrast these headlines with the Jim Devine headlines and you are left in no doubt that the BBC have no wish to 'escalate' the Devine story but that they are trying to push the food story instead.
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Just thought I would take a wander through the blog to check the London Labour spin on the kicking they got in the Euro Election and it didn't take long to find a whopper courtesy of DerekBarker #55:
"before the recession, Britain's GDP rate was 43%"
This is of course, on if you exclude the £250,000,000,000 PFI debt (I like to write out the zeros as a billion just seems to easy to say these days), £1,000,000,000,000 public sector pensions debt etc.
In fact, why doesn't the Labour party just decide what borrowing figure they want and then they can just keep taking things out of the calculation until they get the 'headline' figure they want to lie to us about?
What do you mean "they already do it" ???
As those meercats on the TV would say, Simples......
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#64, GreenockBoy, an excellent post sir.
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#64 Well done . I suppose you will now be accused of creating conspiracy theorys when this stuff has been going on for years within the newspapers and television. I clearly remember the Heysel Stadium disaster when (i cant remember if it was the BBC or ITV) claimed that British football fans had started a riot the caused the death of lots of fans. My dad who was watching at the time was so incensed at the term 'British fans' that he run out of the house in his bare feet and across the road to a neighbour to tell him about it. The channel had to apologise later on when 100's of Scottish viewers complained to say that as it was an English football team it was hardly likely that Scottish fans would have been there. Maybe we should all just stop paying our tv licences until the BBC stops being so biased.
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Will the BBC post the full results by Scottish council area? I saw the results for a couple of these mentioned briefly on the TV last night.
Or does anyone know where these are available?
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44.Thomas_Porter
Reference your response to my comment No 38, I am not wrong, YOU ARE!!! I stated that 9% of the electorate voted SNP and that is correct. The electorate means those entitled to vote. I clarified the actual percentage of those who did cast their vote and 71% did not vote SNP. That is a fact! 91% of the entire Scottish electorate did not vote SNP and that is also a fact! It is abundantly clear to anyone with a degree of common sense that the majority of the Scottish electorate do not seek independence from the UK. If the SNP cannot obtain a significant overall majority when other political parties are in disarray then the conclusion is obvious. The public are not happy with politicians in general but splitting from the UK is clearly not the choice for most voters.
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A tour de force from the SNP with Labour and the Lib Dems falling back. A decent result for the Tories whose vote seems to have held up and they've polled well in areas like Galloway, The Borders, Aberdeenshire and Edinburgh where they have good chances of success at the GE, and I bet Jim Murphy isn't feeling quite so smug this morning!
Quick questions about The Western Isles count, I can respect people's religious belief about no wanting to count on The Sabbath, but is there any reason why the ballot boxes couldn't have been taken across The Minch and counted on the mainland?
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#19 "Well! on a seriously low turnout that SNP have failed to make a real impact and only just push ahead in a very dubious national vote?"
2004 turnout (Scotland): 31%
2009 turnout (Scotland): 31%
You'll have to look elsewhere for a straw to clutch at, love.
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#69 "91% of the entire Scottish electorate did not vote SNP and that is also a fact!"
If only that was how democracy worked, eh? If you can't be bothered to vote then for the purposes of decision-making you don't legally exist. Try again.
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How will BBC & Co fudge this one?
Agree totally #71. Well done SNP.
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#69 JCDBB
By your simplistic (and apparently blinkered) logic, the unionist parties only received a 22% share of the available vote. And therefore should we now take it that there is no need for a referendum as 78% of the Scottish electorate are obviously nationalistic?
No. This election appears to be indicative of a steady turnover of power from, firstly, Labour to the SNP and, secondly, unionism to nationalism. It seems that the flow is inexorable.
If, as seems ever more likely, Gordon Brown has to throw in the towel, a UK General Election should be very interesting. I wonder what negative/xenophoboic/protest-vote spin would be put upon a majority of SNP MPs in Scotland by the minority parties in parliament?
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#69
When it comes to election results, you can only count the votes. The most reasonable interpretation of non-voters is that they don't care one way or the other. (Using your approach one could equally argue that the vast majority of the electorate do not oppose the SNP...)
It is not clear what this result says about the independence issue, as the question was not asked directly. It is better to refer to opinion polls which specifically ask that question. Recent polls on the 'binary question' have fairly consistently shown around 40% in favour of independence, 40% in favour of the status quo, and 20% don't know. So it is fair to say that there has not been a majority for independence, but equally in recent times at least there has not been a majority for the Union.
One might imagine that the SNP's strong showing in votes cast (the most popular single party in nearly two-thirds of council areas as I understand it) suggests there might have been a further small swing towards independence since the Westmister expenses scandal, but that is only speculative extrapolation.
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When will the BBC update results site for the Scottish results so we can analyse just how well the SNP have done.
Also where can we see the breakdown of results from each LA area.
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FACTS:
1. Scotland stays left of centre.
2. England goes extreme right wing.
CONCLUSION:
There is no way a future Tory government at Westminster can rule over the Scots.
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What is the SNP position on Europe? surely with last nights results across the whole of Europe the big question now is? will the right wing parties try and dilute the European parliaments powers and what camp will the SNP sit in/in Brussels.
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#69
It is not clear whether or NOT Scotland wishes to remain a part of the United Kingdom. The point of a referendum is to find that out. I doubt your grasp of democratic principles if you can't see this. Or perhaps it's your commitment to democratic principles that's in doubt? If you really believe that the Union cause would prevail in such a plebiscite, what are you scared of? The will of the people?
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It would be nice if the BBC would update the European results page for Scotland. I'd like to see the full break down. I am glad that we haven't elected any BNP members from Scotland. Thank you Scotland for that.
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#71
Good point! That's the first time I've seen a comparison.
It makes last night's results more poignant, and further enhances the theory of a shift in thinking by the Scottish electorate and not a protest no-vote, as has been spouted by Labour since last night.
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I think that the big message from these polls is that despite a great result for the SNP, Scotland only has two EMPs. Two Scottish Nationalists and four London Labour controlled voting fodder.
As Scotland has in effect the same representation in Europe as the BNP, is this another of these great union dividends that we keep hearing about.
Re relevance of this vote, the one thing that SNP canvassers get on the doorstep is "no matter how I vote the monkey with the red rosette gets elected" not anymore they do not. Every vote in Scotland now counts.
P.S. Great to see the panic in Reluctant/Dereks posts. Any straw will do to clutch at. First Scotland out of the UK, who will be second? Wales or Ulster. Derek get your Euros ready for visiting Belfast.
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minceandmealie re 75
Very true, unless their dead then Labour can get their postal vote. You know it is only fair, as "they would have voted Labour anyway"
The onionists will keep coming back to this none argument on this blog as it is the only thing they can think of in their blind panic.
Must be in the script, along side "getting on with the job"
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#69 JCDBigBear -
As political debate goes - you're on a par with Jean-Claude's blast over the bar (And subsequent red card) against Lyon. You've already made one howler and pretty soon you'll be off for an early bath as no-one will be paying any attention to you.
To de-bunk -
"That is a fact! 91% of the entire Scottish electorate did not vote SNP and that is also a fact!"
What it is - is an attempt to deliberately mis-represent the facts by extrapolating voter preference across a group who have shown no preference at all - i.e. the abstainers and non-voters.
Turnout - as Rev_S_Campbell helpfully points out at #71 above - was 31%.
Therefore - only an estimated 71% x 31% = 22.01% of the overall, elegible electorate did not vote SNP in this election. That is a fact.
You can't extrapolate any figure on preferences for or against independence from the above as independence is not an electoral issue in a European vote. (The European Parliament having no say in indepedence, one way or the other.) That would be leaving the realm of fact and entering into the world of wild speculation.
Equally, 69% of the overall, elegible electorate didn't vote in this election at all. You can't extrapolate any figure on preferences for or against independence from this as these votes haven't shown any preference at all. Any attempt to do so would involve leaving the realm of fact and heading into the world of jingoistic mud-slinging.
Given that, as shown above, only an estimated 22.01% of the total eligible electorate didn't vote SNP in this election, that leaves a massive 77.99% who either voted SNP or showed no preference. And it's that group who will, most likely, decide on independence when it comes to a referendum.
The undecided. Not 'frothing-at-the-mouth' bigots, independence evangelists or dyed-in-wool activists - the ordinary people of Scotland.
And don't they deserve to be given the facts on which to make their decision? Actual facts, that is, not the wild statistics rigging you're engaged in.
For a political commentator, you make a pretty good Rangers fan
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#78
SNP Position is pro-Europe. Independence from UK but remain in the EU. The CFP and CAP will have to be amended severely however.
The SNP sit within the Greens group in the European Parliamet
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Here is some more of that Union Dividend or "punching above our weight" (sic).
MEP's by number:
Denmark 13, population 5.5m
Cyprus 6, population 0.7m
Scotland 6, population 5.0m
There are many other examples of small countries having more MEP's than we have. Perhaps the latest results for the SNP indicate that the Scottish population is at last wakening up to the realities of the Union.
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How can a party who's Minister for Wales back pocketed £100,000 with out declaring it, as required under PPER (2000), who avoided a criminal conviction under the act by 'apologising' to Parliament expect to be treated with anything less than disdain? East Lothian have turned against Labour - home of their 'Scottish leader'. In SNP heartlands the share of their vote has increased at Labour's expense.
The media have been talking down this result for weeks now: 'protest vote', unlikely to be repeated in a General Election, etcetera. Yet this result mirrors the Scotland only opinion poll indicators for Scot's voters very closely.
What is clear is that a vote for Labour in Scotland will not stop the Conservatives gaining a majority at Westminster. The decision changes to; who among the opposition can do the best job for Scotland?
Labour have shown no inclination to put up for Scotland, the Lib Dems (bless them) are ham strung by Tavish in Scotland and the Tories will rule Scotland as its last outpost of the Empire, as it always does with its little Englander 'Scottish MPs' towing the party line.
So Mr Cameron just what is your Tory manifesto going to say about increased fiscal autonomy for Scotland? After all 80% of Scots say the want it in opinion polls; that must include a fair number of Scottish Tories.
As it appears the Scotland only opinion polls have accurately reflected the voting intentions of us 'rebellious Scots' and 33% of non SNP voters will shift to vote SNP, if it looks like a Conservative Government in Westminster, will you go for the standard Tory wish, 'Those rebellious Scots to crush!' or will you continue with the progressive cessation of the Parliamentary Union and come up with a brave plan to turn the House of Lords into an elected 'UK style Senate' for UK wide issues and give Westminster devolved status as parliament for England?
Or will you sit on your hands, head in the sand while Scotland rips itself apart from England and the inevitable, disastrous consequences for both countries that such a negative approach will create.
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I have found a council area breakdown of the vote on the stv website.
I think including a url is a breach of the rules here, so you will have to find it yourself if you are interested.
In terms of the 33 council areas reporting, the SNP is first in the popular vote in 22, Conservatives first in 4, Labour first in 3, Liberal Democrats first in 3. Of the 10 areas in which the SNP is not in first place, it is in second place in 9, and third in the remaining 1.
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Just think of what the SNP would have achieved if Scotland had a fair and honest media.
We've had six weeks of anti SNP headlines right across the Scottish media and we battle on through a continuous anti SNP narrative in everything we read and watch with very few exceptions. As has been pointed out before Labour is hanging on in areas where the Daily Record is the newspaper? of choice for most people.
BTW I feel that Brian Taylor is perfectly fair to the SNP. A little bit of unattractive paranoia pops up among us from time to time.
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#85
I thank you for your official party response. Can I say that the EU election were an historic low turnout and the majority who did vote, inclusive of Scotland were voting against the EU and demanding a referendum.It would seem that the SNP and the voters are polls apart on the European question of the single currency.
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#77 Firstly the rest of the Union has not gone 'extreme right wing" - stop the emotive language let alone shouting you opinion as "FACT". You just sound like a poster on a 606 Sports thread.
Secondly without Scottish and Welsh MPs there would never have been a Labour Government apart from the first Blair administration.
That is simply the effect of the "first past the post" electoral system. A system that has, at least, kept the Far Right out of British national politics. UKIP and the BNP have only won seats in these Euro elections due to the existance proportional representation system used.
You clearly support SNP and hate the Conservative party. Fine, but leave us to sort out the real facts from the chaff. You conclusion is simply your opinion, not based on facts. Most I believe would disagree - but that's simply my opinion ;-)
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Outstanding. Not an Election Result, an irreversible Sea Change in Scottish Politics which will be confirmed in the forthcoming General Election.
It looks like any Referendum will now serve to confirm the SNP's mandate for Independence which they will get by winning 30+ seats at said General Election.
The SNP has studiously played down the Scottish sensation.The BNP and UKIP have never been off the TV, BBC and SKY and the Conservative bombshell in Wales is brought up regularly but the SNP SENSATION is ignored ans played down in the few reports it gets.
For the full results forget the English Brioadcasting Company go to STV:
http://news.stv.tv/politics/101115-european-elections-scottish-results/
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It is, I think, interesting to note the point that First Minister Salmond has made about incumbency in reflecting upon the Euro-election results: i.e., whereas the current UK governing party, Labour, has suffered rejection by the electorate, the governing party in Scotland, the Scottish National Party, has received a vote of confidence from the people, as has the governing party in France, incidentally, the right-of-centre UMP gaining a proportion of the popular vote which is very similar to that gained by the Tories in the UK, while the Parti socialiste got no more than the Greens, to whom the "strange bunch of people" (#62) in mainland Europe have given substantial support while England has given substantial support to two far-right extremist parties.
It needs to be remembered, I think, that, whereas the UK government is in a state of apparent panic and is teetering on the brink of an extinction-level event so far as the next UK general election is concerned, the governing party in France is not suffering massive loss of electoral support as a result of the recession, which is, as is well known, widely considered there to be a result of the collapse of Anglo-American casino capitalism, the impact of which has so far been more serious in the USA and the UK than in France, where the blind panic into which Blighty is perceived to be slipping further with its alarming lurch to the far right and to support for anti-EU parties is regarded with dismay. What a strange bunch of people, some cannot help observing.
Never mind. Things can only get better . . . but not before they get worse, it is believed. Paul Jorion, a formerly US-based economist, anthropologist, sociologist and cognitive scientist, who taught in the USA, Cambridge and Brussels before returning to France a few weeks ago, is currently making quite an impact with his analysis of the economic crisis.
Why would anyone pay attention to what he has to say? Well, although it is often said that no one forecast the recession, it is the case that Mr Jorion wrote a book in 2004 which forecast, among other things, the devastating sub-prime crisis in the USA. He did not find a publisher for it until 2007, when Towards the Crisis of American Capitalism appeared just before the crisis of American capitalism burst upon the scene.
Anyone who imagines that the recession will soon be over should pay attention to Mr Jorion, who is currently forecasting that the nature of the current recession is such that a worse one will inevitably follow hard upon it, as capitalism as we know it is dying, whether or not those who have just voted for right-of-centre parties in the Euro-elections realize it or not.
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Eric Barker was a comedian.
Derek Barker appears to be lonely
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#91
I think I'm right in understanding that the PR system in use for the EU elections is not the same as that used for the Scottish parliamentary elections.
Furthermore it's a complete nonesense to say that the merits of FPTP are that it's kept fringe parties out of power. FPTP is undemocratic, PR represents the voice and wishes of the people far more accurately.
The fact that UKIP has won so many seats in a EU election is because that is the parties main motivation, much like the SNP or Plaid do better in Scottish/Welsh elections than in the GE (well in the past at least, maybe not in the next GE!).
The BNP were returned not because of the electoral system but because of current circumstances and a certain (misguided in my view, being polite) faction of the electorate.
Funny that, it's the voters you have to convince, not fudge the system into a more undemocratic method.
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#17, aye_write and #86, haggistrap.
You forgot the most damning one.
Luxembourg 6 0.45 million (or about the same as Edinburgh and The Lothians)
A few comments and observations.
As so many have said or hinted, you can't take Euro elections as a marker of anything other than a desire to give the government a good kicking. Except it seems that in the rest of Europe, The Governing parties did quite well ?
Having said that, just as a bit of fun, you could easily argue that these figures could suggest that The Murph is going down in East Ren even if the Tories put up a stuffed bear.
Doesn't anyone else find it quite concerning that 2.5% of the Scottish vote went to a party whose constitution states that "Membership of the BNP is strictly defined within the terms of, and our members also self define themselves within, the legal ambit of a defined racial group this being Indigenous Caucasian and defined ethnic groups emanating from that Race ", never mind that not one but two of them got elected in England. We're all Jock Tamson's Bairns. Except that 5 in every 200 don't think that way. And that's the saddest indictment of Broon, that on his watch, people voted for Holocaust Deniers and Fascists.
As for the various points about words to the effect of "counting those who didn't vote as voting against", can anyone else remember a certain Devolution Referendum some 30-odd years ago ? That was Labour Democracy for you then, and is the same Labour Democracy that puts Mandleson and Glenys Kinnock in Offices of State.
England voted Tory. Actually, England voted against NuLab and Broon. And here's the lesson for all of the NuLab sheep who faithfully ticked their box for The Socttish Region list.
Voting NuLab will not save Scotland from another 8 to 12 of the iron fist of Tory Rule. Remember the Feeble Fifty ?
Our defence lies in voting for Independence as soon as we can. The first step towards that is returning as many SNP MPs to Westmunster as we can whenever the election comes.
Labour Voters, look at yourselves in the mirror this morning. Did your vote do anything other than succour this failed Prime Minister and his Ceaucescu-esque cabinet of cronies ? Can you hear Nye Bevin and John Smith birling in their graves today ?
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86 and friends. Ah, the flagship argument for independence: "We will have a few more seats in the European Parliament!".
Yep, that's what people are worried about - representation in the European Parliament.
Never mind that the real power rests in the Council of Ministers (of which the UK, Europe's second largest economy, is one of the most powerful), let's have independence so that we'll have just over 1% of the vote in the Parliament.
However, on the upside, the SNP do belong to a group with a whopping 6.7% share of the overall Parliament vote between them, so we shall enjoy the influence and authority this will bring to us. As long as they all agree with each other and vote together.
Anyway, to secure 29% of all the votes from the 31% of the population that actually voted, and against a party that is becoming more and more ridiculous with each passing hour, is indeed a remarkable achievement. We absolutely cannot deny the nationalists their moment of infinite joy over this. As Salmond says, this is "massive", "massive" and, as always, "historic"!
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A colleague just pointed out to me that Denmark (population 5.5 million) has 13 MEPs (to Scotland's 6; 5 million) while Ireland (population, 4.2 million) has 12 MEPs; Latvia (population, 2.6 million) has 8 MEPs; and Estonia (population, 1.3 million) has 6 MEPs. What is even more bizarre is that France (65 million), Italy (60 million) and the UK (60 million) each have 72 MEPs while Germany (82 million) has 99. A distribution based on an equal share (736 MEPs; 491 million in the EU) would have 667,000 / MEP while the number of EU citizens each MEP represents various rather a lot:
Denmark: 420,000 / MEP
Ireland: 350,000 / MEP
Latvia: 325,000 / MEP
Estonia: 216,000 / MEP
France: 900,000 / MEP
Italy: 833,000 / MEP
UK: 850,000 / MEP
Germany: 820,000 / MEP
Scotland: 833,000 / MEP
Based on an equal distribution, Scotland would have 7-8 MEPs; the UK 91; Germany 122. Those countries of Scotland's size would lose a considerable number of seats.
Thus, what is most interesting is that, as a 'region' Scotland has about the 'right' (in a proportional sense) of seats but as a 'country' in the EU it would have probably double the number of seats it currently has.
A rather bizarre way to apportion seats!
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"Environment minister Jane Kennedy said she had been sacked because she would not give a pledge of support to Gordon Brown. But Downing St said she had not been asked for one and had called Mr Brown early on to say she wanted to quit."
It's impossible for both to be telling the truth: either Kennedy was sacked or she quit. Either she was asked for a pledge or support or she wasn't.
Politicians are apparently too stupid to see that all they're doing is destroying trust in both claims.
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Thanks guys for the stv link. They are amazing reading. Notes: -
- The Tories were only 44,000 votes behind Labour in Scotland! That is scary. No doubt Dean will be on shortly.
- Labour were only 2.8% ahead of the SNP in Glasgow!
- In Fife, home of Brown and Glenrothes, Labour beat SNP by 205 votes. I've had a look at Fife Council website but no further breakdown is there. I suspect no further breakdown is available. However, I would love to know how they voted in Brown's seat and also Glenrothes. Any chance the electoral roll can be found?
Freedom
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#97 Reluctant-Cowpat
"We absolutely cannot deny the nationalists their moment of infinite joy over this."
Translation into plain English: "We absolutely cannot deny that reality is biting me very hard on the backside just as bighullabaloo said it would!"
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#97 Your hysteria fails to conceal your panic. Bad luck.
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#67 Ugotworriedsheep
But the Liverpool fans were British?! As were the visitors to Manchester last year for a Euro cup final who attacked British police and wrecked a British city while draped in the British flag?
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Results:
Scotland (% votes): Left-of-centre 75%, Right-of-centre 25%.
England (% votes): Left-of-centre 40%, Right-of-centre 60%.
Conclusion:
A Dis-United Kingdom
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#23 ScotInNotts
ScotInNotts, completely missed your post!
Other things been distracting me :-)
Scotland, while being seen as merely a UK region in these elections (and of course that is totally out of keeping with our nation/national when you look at the majority share of the vote - see my next posting - status), however has avoided the effect that the regional voting system has had on England, where for example the Green vote overall there increased considerably, but their share of MEPs did not in fact go up. Just a point to consider when we do get independence.
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JCDBigBear:
#69.
"I stated that 9% of the electorate voted SNP and that is correct."
The largest group never supported the SNP or Unionist parties, more so the Unionist parties never gained over 50 percent of the vote so by using your logic the Union has no mandate either.
You also ignored several points that not all independence supporters would vote for the Scottish National Party, the European elections was never a referendum on independence and the fact that you seek to misrepresent figures for your own political agenda clearly shows the desperation that you have, are you afraid to loose a referendum? If, like you said that most voters do not want independence then what are you worried about?
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Anyone seen the share of the vote breakdown for England?
When you remove the Scottish figures, is Labour actually fourth not third, behind the Lib Dems?
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#97 Reluctant-Expat
A little bitter and twisted today, are we?
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No, the flagship argument for Independence is not how many MEPs we have. Its about how many Westminister MPs we don't have. Its about making our own decisions and not having our purse-strings controlled by a far away place of which we know little and care less. Its about saying We are Scotland. This is who we are. This is what we beleive. This is the society that we want. And its not what England wants.
Just in case you didn't notice, There was a change in Scotland on Thursday. As in Wales. As in England. NuLab took a hell of a beating of the range and scope that even the darkest days of Thatcher could not inflict upon them. But this time, NuLab ARE the UK Government.
One of the simple joys of democracy is that you have the right not to vote. You don't have to give a reason, you may not be able to, you may just be so scunnered with the whole thing, or you may still look to the days when it didn't matter if you voted because the monkey with the red rosette always got in.
So the SNP took 29% of those who voted. Does that make those votes worthless because 61% of the people who could vote didn't ? Although I don't like it, 2.5% of those who voted did so for a party of racist, holocauts-denying fascists. Are their votes worthless because 97.5% of the population didn't vote BNP ?
R-E, you do yourself no favours with your diatribe. You may think it funny, un peu amusant as you dispense your pearls of wisdom to the sweaties who really just aren't smart enough to appreciate your towering intellect.
I've been hanging around and contributing to this blog for a good while now. You make "friends" and you make "enemies". I've always tried as so many of us have to be logical but passionate with our arguments, to develop the topic, explore the points. I've never "flamed" (to go back to that good old expression from the days of usenet). I've listened to all and debated with many.
There are those whose contributions add nothing to this blog. We all know who they are. Their mindless, reflex, anti-nationalist vitriol and mock-hauteur cynicism points out both their arrogance and their ignorance.
A change happened in England, Wales and Scotland on Thursday.
Different times are on their way. NuLab is Dead. The Union is Dead.
Independence is coming.
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Unionists like Reluctant-expat are worried and they have every reason to be. RE, like most Unionists in Scotland, is preoccupied by size. He bases his argument for continuation of this Union on an apparent observation that the UK is a large economy and is, he tells us 'powerfull'.
My response to that is so what? Scotland is not faring well and is about to be thumped when the grant is cut by half a billion a year - so much for size.
The trend in elections is the important factor here and once again we see voters move towards the SNP. Of course, not every voter will have opted for the SNP because they are passionate about or desire independence, however not every Labour/Tory/Lib Dem voter is pro Union either.
The recent Yougov polls that I highlighted gave figures for this Euro election and the forthcoming Westminster one. The Euro figures appear to have been borne out predicting the SNP at 31% (29% actual) and Labour at 22% (21% actual).
The figures for Westminster therefore must be teated with some respect, in that poll the SNP polled 33% to Labour's 25%.
Labour have no policies for Scotland, their Holyrood group leader spends his time trying to oust one minister after another. Smears have replaced alternative policies and vision. Every week we see an Iain Gray being eaten up by bitterness and loathing as he simply cannot compete with Salmond.
Unionists like RE have been left exposed and vulnerable. Like football fans who are witnessing their team being humiliated they hurl insults and abuse at the opposition.
The next Westminster election may, like the Euro election, leave Labour with more seats than their vote deserves. They and the media in Scotland will portray this as a success for the Union - they will be wrong.
The boulder of independence rolls slowly on, gathering more and more support. The Unionists last attempt at stopping it lies with a hastily constructed and fragile Calman Commission. Will Calman be able to arrest the movement or will it simply roll over him?
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#92 Brian Hill: "The SNP has studiously played down the Scottish sensation."
That should read: The BBC has studiously played down......
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98. I doubt anyone would disagree with you. This system has created a multi-tier class of European citizens having different levels of representation which is clearly wrong.
I'll happily accept the EU's micro-states having multiple seats disproportional to their population but everyone else should have an equal population/seats ratio, ie. one man - one vote.
So, one EU seat per 1.1million with a minimum of two seats?...I think that's 736 seats. -ish.
Anyway, like I said before, the real power is in the Council of Ministers where 'double majority' is more representative. This is not really an issue for me, more about symbolism.
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The SNP won 22 out of 32 of the local authority areas.
The SNP won 69% of voting areas in Scotland.
(Now, why haven't I seen that statistic in the news! ;-)
I'll just say it again:
the SNP won 69% of the voting areas in Scotland.
That's over two thirds, not far from three quarters - it's an historic result.
If we had our own (national) media, just how do you think they would be playing it?
Not like oldnat said in his #63 anyway!
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101, 102 and 108. Yet again, you hit the nail on the head. I am indeed overwhelmed, make that consumed, with anger, fury, angst....bitterness...er...hatred and all kinds of other negative feelings.
To see that my party walked the UK-wide vote, taking back Wales in the process, and is romping to a win at the next election really does not help. Sigh. Woe is me.
Your continued accuracy in identifying underlying emotions to my posts is truly remarkable. It really is.
Kudos.
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#114 Reluctant-Expat
RE, Good afternoon,
I'm just wondering, (without malice ;-), how would you feel if there was a Tory win in independent Scotland? Would that be good enough for you?
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How many more votes would have seen a 3rd SNP MEP elected?
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#105 Aye
No worries, think my posts were missed by Frankly too when he made the exact point I had made earlier regarding government mandate.
I saw Caroline Lucas express her exasperation at the overall rise in the Greens share nationwide but suffer due to the regional breakdown, whereas the BNP gained from it. For those decrying PR over FPTP, there's another reason for the 'unwanted' results, the way the regions are broken down rather than share of the vote in each nation.
Frankly I'm intrigued by the political landscape post independence, how the SNP will eventually break up into separate groupings based on national issues, where the union party members will find solace on the left and right. The Greens are probably the only party that will remain largely unchanged pre and post independence. Hopefully we'll find out sooner rather than later.
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#104 minuend- your figures simply show what has been happening over the past few years. Scotland & England are growing apart by the week.
What the English are happy to accept or are unable to stand up against, is most definitely not acceptable to the majority of Scots. whilst Mr Browns moral compass is posted missing , thankfully the majority of Scots still have their moral compass and are prepared to stand up and say so. I didn't vote for the SNP at the last Scottish Parliament elections, thankfully they won (just) as if Labour had won god only knows what kind of a state my country would now be in.
The NHS in the 2 countries are totally different,with England as close to private health care as you can get and as minuend shows England are heading for right wing "sod you I'm alright Jack" disaster whilst Scotland remains centre left with some Scots still actually caring what happens to fellow human beings.
The more the differences grow the harder it will become to keep the UK together.
Sid.
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Re #114 Reluctant-Expat
You can protest all you want, you can put on a brave face, you can try to mock those who have pointed out your discomfort, but the bottom line is that Scotland doesn't want your party and you can't stand it.
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#113 aye_write
It's plain that some contributors have a real concern regarding the impartiality of the BBC. Having allowed myself to be educated that those concerns are well founded (thanks to all who have been highlighting this worrying trend with this broadcaster)I for one will be dropping an email to the 2 SNP Euro MPs (probably pointless emailing the others). This matter requires airing in Brussels. It's simply undemocratic.
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Just wanted to make a dishonourable mention of Lib Dem MP Willie Rennie.
I've long been of the opinion that when it comes to elections the Lib Dems are the nasty party.( The disgraceful way they treated Peter Tatchell in Bermondsey with their "vote for the straight choice" campaign being but one example. )
Last night in the studio a most ungracious Willie Rennie MP made the obsevation that the vote for the SNP in Scotland had merely been a protest vote much in the way that the votes for the BNP had in England.
Now Labour, much as they resent the SNP wouldn't even have stooped to that. Nicola Sturgeon quite rightly called his comments disgraceful.
I thought it was a great pity that on a triumphant night for the SNP she once again ended up defending herself gainst 4 unionists out to attack her party. ( I of course include Glen.)
Well done to Brian by the way for a giving a fair and accurate account of the night's proceedings and especially for not joining Glen Campbell and David Martin MEP in getting their " Alex Salmond Food Bill" lines in.
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The BBC lunchtime news can barely even mention that SNP beat Labour. One report hidden away deep into the show. No mention in the headlines at all! Plenty of mentions of UKIP, BNP and the Tory win in Wales though. It's like the BBC don't want people to know. Very poor indeed and no surprise!
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Greetings from Raleigh, North Carolina. Well, what is one to do with a day off and it being too hot and sticky to work in the garden? Ponder the EC election results, I suppose. If all the Scottish Labour MP's were offered the chance of another term at Westminster starting tomorrow but based on today's Scottish result (ie, about 12 seats) would they accept?
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Aye-write, as an expat (reluctant but not Reluctant) I got to watch the full unedited version of the LBC coverage until the bitter end (finished at a little after 9pm here). Labour finished third in England & Wales.
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#113
What a sad way to reflect such an historical low turnout, you could have pointed out that only 1/3 of the Scottish electorate voted (30%) and 2/3 didn't bother to vote (70%)
I think that's a better reflection of the truth aye-write.
If the SNP do go ahead with an Independent referendum, then the "EUROPEAN " question and the single currency will be partial to that referendum.
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#124 Skip_NC
Thanks. Did you hear by how big a margin (from fourth)?
Interesting :-)
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74.
I think it unnecessary to resort to insult. My point is that results can be viewed in different ways. Mr Salmond views the result as "massive and historic" whereas my interpretation is one of a more realistic view. I am not affiliated to any political party but if I wished for an independent Scotland then I would vote SNP. I think that others of such mind would also vote SNP. In this election, only 8.3% of the entire electorate voted SNP. For whatever reason, 91.7% chose not to vote SNP. The other parties are generally pro-UK therefore it is safe to assume that their voters are pro-UK. Of those who did actually vote, 70.9% chose not to vote SNP. The low turnout and the spread of voting across the various parties, points to large-scale disillusionment of the public to all the political parties, including the SNP.
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RE My #109, referred to moderators.
(The first time that I have been referred since I started posting to this blog)
Come on guys, the courtesy of a reason please.
Regards,
Chiefy
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What's particularly interesting for, as regards these Euro Election results, is the correlation between turnout and Labour success.
Of the three Local Authority Areas won by Labour - two of them, North Lanarkshire and Glasgow saw respectively the worst and second worst turn out in the whole of Scotland. In North Lanarkshire only 22.5 percent of the electorate voted and in Glasgow only 23.9 percent.
Contrast this with the Tories successes - All four of the Conservative wins were in LA Areas with a 'top ten' turnout.
East Renfrewshire had the highest turnout in Scotland and the Conservatives won it, 5.8 percent ahead of the SNP and 8.6 percent ahead of Labour.
Similarly - the Tories won in Dumfires and Galloway with the 6th highest turnout, South Ayrshire (7th)and the Scottish Borders (10th). They also managed three 2nd place finishes (All behind the SNP) in Edinburgh, Perth & Kinross and Stirling - respectively 4th, 5th and 8th in terms of turn out.
What it all seems to point to is a break down of the Labour organisation on the ground. Even in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire where they're strongest, they struggled to get the vote out - finishing no more the 3 percent ahead in either area.
Where they needed votes to fight off a strong challenge - e.g. in East Renfrwshire or Stirling - Labour's supporters didn't turn out - but the SNP and Tories' did.
In contrast the SNP (and to a lesser extent, the Tories) grass-roots organisations seem to be flourishing. They're getting a higher proportion of their votes out in their key heartlands and they're winning the tougher battles (SNP in Inverclyde, for example)Morale must be good and getting better.
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Has Derek gone to lie down in a darkened room, now that his alter ego reluctant has popped up?
Its over, all onionists must now know how King Canute felt. You cannot hold back the tide guys, but you can repeat the following,
1)Low turnout
2)Protest Vote
3)Different voting system
4)Party in fighting
Or you could follow the Labour briefing paper,
1) Getting on with the job
2) Public expects us to continue
3) Best man for the job
4) Saved the world
5) Obama beach (what a clown) and no not Obama
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75:
My point is that results can be viewed in different ways. Surely anyone with aspirations for independence would vote SNP? Those happy with the status quo either vote for another party or as appears to be the case at this time, abstain. In any event, only 8.3% of the entire electorate voted SNP with 91.7% choosing not to vote SNP. Of those who did cast their vote, 70.9% again chose not to vote SNP. The very low turnout and the spread of voting across the various parties, points to large-scale disillusionment of the public to all the political parties, including the SNP. I am not in favour of a separate parliament or a referendum as I consider both to be a waste of money. The expenses at Holyrood may not be as bad as Westminster but it is still another tier of government at a ridiculous cost to the public purse. The cost of the European parliament is even worse particularly in view of the vast sums of money allegedly misappropriated. I believe that the EU accounts have never been signed off for the last 13 or 14 years, which is utterly disgraceful.
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79.
Who decides when a referendum is to be held? I would think that such a decision should only be reached when the SNP obtain at least 50% of the votes in a General Election. We can't have a referendum at the whim of a few people. The SNP are well short of such figures at this time.
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#125 derekbarker (and any others)
Uh-huh...low turnout - is there ever a high turnout?
Sounds like excuses to me ;-)
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#114 Reluctant-Cowpat
Why is it coming as no surprise at all that you're clearly a very bad loser?
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JCDBigBear:
#124.
"My point is that results can be viewed in different ways. Mr Salmond views the result as "massive and historic" whereas my interpretation is one of a more realistic view."
Your view is not the 'more realistic' one. Alex Salmond views the results as historic because the SNP gained more votes then Labour - Fact.
"I am not affiliated to any political party but if I wished for an independent Scotland then I would vote SNP. I think that others of such mind would also vote SNP."
This is your opinion. Your opinion is not fact.
"In this election, only 8.3% of the entire electorate voted SNP. For whatever reason, 91.7% chose not to vote SNP."
This is misrepresenting figures. The turn out was less then 30 percent, over 70 percent of those eligable to vote never support anyone.
"The other parties are generally pro-UK therefore it is safe to assume that their voters are pro-UK."
This is the same nonensense that was used after the 2007 elections in Scotland, but where is your evidence? So far your opinion shows and you can not use your opinions and claim it to be fact. It's ridiculous and I am embarressed for you. There are voters who support the Unionist parties but do not represent the SNP.
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Re # 127 JCDBigBear
That's some top quality spin there, the way you jump from the entire electorate to the people who chose to vote, I'm sure Lord Mandelson could use you somewhere.
Only problems are:
1) People were voting on MEPs not on a independence referendum.
2) All the parties have more than one policy, and so people's voting cannot be mapped to a single issue when they have been asked to vote on a complete set of party policies.
Bottom line, nice try, but no biscuit.
If you want to know how Scotland would vote on independence, you have to ask the people.
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#127 WUMBigBear -
"I think it unnecessary to resort to insult."
But insulting peoples' intelligence by deliberately and transparently trying to mis-represent the figures is fine, I suppose.
"My point is that results can be viewed in different ways."
And yet you make no attempt to show them in different ways. Instead, you just keep repeating the same, distorted clap-trap in support of your Unionist agenda.
For example -
"In this election, only 8.3% of the entire electorate voted SNP."
That's your way of 'viewing' things, which I've quoted here because I'm an equitable sort who's prepared to accept that there's more than one side to an argument. Unlike you.
"69% of the entire electorate didn't vote in this election at all."
That's my way of viewing things. Notice how, when you put the two side by side your much-trumpted "only 8.3%" starts to look a little less impressive in the context of an election where the majority expressed no preference at all.
I'm still waiting for your explanation of how, by your way of 'viewing' things, an abstention counts as a vote against the SNP.
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JCDBigBear:
Your comments are ridiculous and embarressing.
The Liberal Democrats prefer a federal United Kingdom.
The Conservatives would prefer Westminister to be the only Parliament.
Labour would prefer the status quo.
Neither party has a majority but how do we decide what we want?
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132 JCDBigBear, evidently not a man/woman/bear of your word.
Is this not a quote from your ursine self in September 2008?
"From this day forth I shall ignore all "blogs" and reflect on how rather pathetic our society has become."
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#131 Bigbear.
Not sure what your point is or what you are trying to prove. People who don't vote don't count. It is the people who do vote who decide.
Have you tried your analysis to UK Labour? They got 15% of a 34% turnout. So Brown has been endorsed by 5% of the electorate?
Freedom
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84.
Firstly, my initials have nothing to do with a footballer. Insults are not required during debate.
Secondly, the turnout was just under 29% according to the voting figures.
The electorate are those people who are eligible to vote, not necessarily those who actually voted. The SNP vote was only 8.3% of the electorate therefore 91.7% of the electorate did not vote for the SNP. I would have thought that anyone who was serious about seeking independence would vote SNP at every opportunity. Of those who did cast a vote, 70.9% did not vote SNP. I am sorry to point out that your 22% and 78% figures are incorrect.
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131. You're wasting your time with this lot! As long as the SNP supports independence, the independence-obsessed that man these boards 24/7 will ALWAYS back the SNP unconditionally. They will also immediately and unconditionally reject anyone who contradicts their absolute beliefs that the SNP are infallible and independence (this being what most of them only really care about) is inevitable.
There is very little, if any, empirical evidence that suggests support for independence is growing. The SNP's pro-independence National Conversation is growing virtual cobwebs, as are any of the pro-independence petitions. The largest petition started over a year ago with a target of 100,000 signatures from Scotland....and has not even managed 4,000 signatures worldwide. Pro-independence polls are also trending downwards or are below past peaks, and even with an opposition making every effort to be as unelectable as possible, the SNP could still only win by the equivalent of the electorate of Dundee.
Yet you wouldn't know it from this lot's posts, would you! Saying that, many of these believe they have been or are currently under surveillance by MI5, or are subject to a personal vendetta by the BBC to silence their protests, or believe a secret unionist group coerced a convict to abscond from an open prison to provide an opportunity to criticise Salmond in Holyrood (and I'm not making this up!) and/or absolutely believe in countless other international anti-Scottish nationalist conspiracies so 'reality' is not a regular visitor to these minds!
(And I shall restrain myself from another rant about the state of the EU 'government'.....must.....fight.....anger......babbling brook, babbling brook....)
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#132 JCDBigBear
If your arguments were sufficiently persuasive, I would look out the polling data for the % of voters in all the "Unionist" parties who support Independence, and the % of SNP voters who don't. As it is, other posters know this data well, and if you wish to see it for yourselves check out various System 3 and YouGov polls.
Trying to reduce complex human behaviours like voting to some robotic interpretation, suggests that learning about motivational factors wouyld significantly enhance your understanding of politics.
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Brian, at two o'clock on BBC 24, stated loudly that this was nothing less than a thumping win for the SNP in Scotland.
Labour and Unionist apologists even one of your main cheer leaders has accepted that this is not a 'blib', it is reality; it reflects the Scottish only opinion polls very closely.
The Tories - on the same program; in the form of Ian Duncan Smith - were claiming that the result showed that the people of the UK were now seeking a Conservative Government; there you go then, the fact that the Tories were third in Scotland has no resonance with them. Either that or they have already done a deal with Wee Eck that as good as gives Scotland full fiscal independence. Maybe one of the Unionist / Tories could enlighten us?
Now the interesting question is will the Labour turkeys vote for Christmas at this evening's PLP meeting?
Me? I will not be holding my breath.
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127. JCD
I apologise if the post came over as insulting - it wasn't supposed to be. I attempted to riposte what appeared to be a very simplistic (and blinkered) viewpoint that the electorate who refused to vote were of a unionist persuasion. There is no basis, I think, for this wiewpoint. Those who decided not to vote could equally be of a nationalistic viewpoint.
Also, whilst it is arguable that a majority of "unionist" party voters would in the event of a referendum vote for the staus quo, I think it highly likely that a substantial portion could well vote for independence. I base this assumption on many years of being a listener in conversations with even the most brain-washed of labour voters in general elections who have a strong "Scottish" identity, but who have never had the opportunity to express it outwith party politics.
As for your reference to a low turnout: I believe it is much the same as previously in Scotland. Therefore the SNP rise is based upon a shift in voting characteristics of the electorate who bothered and not as a protest due to disillusionment in the Scottish political process. If anything, the political landscape in Scotland is more alive than ever before - most people have opinions about most things right now!
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125. At 2:04pm on 08 Jun 2009, derekbarker wrote:
I'm sorry, you appear to have missed an important fact! Turnout was the same as last time. So where does the historic low come from?
You've already tried the GDP one and that didn't wash either. While you are on here spinning your nonsense. Bevan, Shinwell etc are probably spinning in their graves at the damage NuLabour lies and half truths have done to their once great movement.
The electorate have become little more than cannon fodder for the do as I say not as I do party. Trust me I know whats best for you, just do as i say and I'll improve my...erm your life. The SNP have become the real socialist party in Scotland and the electorate are beginning to realise that.
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#131 JCD
I have heard this one before. It is not a valid statement that an abstaining voter is happy with the status quo, the only information that you have on an abstaining voter is that they didn't vote. Any other statements are assumptions.
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The fact that Labour came fourth in England and Wales and the fact that if not even one person votes Tory in Scotland at the next General Election Scotland will have Tory government might concentrate a few minds.
There will be no point in voting Labour or LibDem in Scotland at the next GE.
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#132 JCDBigBear wrote:
"Who decides when a referendum is to be held? I would think that such a decision should only be reached when the SNP obtain at least 50% of the votes in a General Election. We can't have a referendum at the whim of a few people."
Who can have an illegal war? One PM and their inner circle! Didn't know it was in Nulab's manifesto or was it in the small print.
A referendum in Scotland was in the SNP's manifesto or do we follow Westminsters example of pleasing themselves of what they do when it suits. I prefer democracy.
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130. "Iceland and Ireland are part of an Arc of Prosperity stretching across Northern Europe..." (before Iceland's economy crashed)
"Iceland's economy is too small to be compared to that of Scotland..." (after Iceland's economy crashed)
"By comparing Scotland's economic performance to that of other small European economies, including Luxembourg...."
"We are pledging a light-touch regulation suitable to a Scottish financial sector with its outstanding reputation for probity as opposed to one like that in the UK, which absorbs huge amounts of management time in gold-plated regulation".
Genius.
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Not much a unionist (lol onionist) can retort about the results.
This apparent "vote against incumbency " is totally false - else we'd have seen the SNP lose votes. Labour are suffering because of the ramifications of policies made 12 years ago - not simply because they can't agree on the colour of s***e or they've been caught with thier fingers in the till.
David Cameron is as Tony bLiar was in 1997, the face of a new brand of politics - the kind you can trust(!) "call me Dave" anyone?
In both instances - what are we, the Scots, going to get out of it? Fairer representation in Westmonster? Not according to the Calman Commission - Who are arguing that we are over represented and overfunded in the UK.
Budgetary (Taxing and borrowing, management of fiscal revenues inside Scotland) powers and a means to support economic growth? Not according to the Calman Commssion - who are intent on keeping the vast wealth of the North Sea under the remit of a (probable) future conservative government with no mandate to rule in Scotland.
A transport (public and commercial) infrastructure that isn't a black affront to a so called post industrial country? Not according to the Calman Commission or Cameron who refuse to be drawn into promises of a high speed rail link between "union countries" or better still, Labours opposition to funding for the badly needed forth road bridge.
Why anyone would actively vote for political entities who will deny us these fundamental things is beyond me
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#130,
At the risk of being ever-so-slightly pedantic, Canute was actually proving to his fawning courtiers that he COULDN'T hold back the tide.
"Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings. For there is none worthy of the name but God, whom heaven, earth and sea obey".
So when the waves kept coming in, he was vindicated. Which I'm pretty sure is not what you're saying of those of a Unionist persuasion!
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The faithful will be gathering in the various Labour clubs to drown their sorrows, and after a few pints things will start to look wonderful again. Gordon , through the haze of lager fumes will again assume proportions of political stature. Thats one thing alchohol has going for it, if you drink enough you'll believe anything.
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Aye_write, it was less than 2 percentage points. Labour were closer to UKIP than the Lib Dems were to Labour. I suppose Labour will spin that as a moral victory
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#132
We cannot have referendum blocked at the whim of a few people.
All opinion polls on this issue have established that more than 4 out of 5 of the voters would like to participate in a Scottish constitutional referendum.
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Re: 116
To have taken the 3rd MEP seat, the SNP would have needed an additional lead of 23,774 votes.
By the last division, Labour had a lead of 7,924 giving it its second MEP. To overcome that you need to multiply the lead by the SNP 5th round divisor (3) and add one vote.
Essentially with the D'Hont method, after the first round, you keep dividing the total votes per party by the number of MEPs elected plus one. The party with the largest number of votes in the next round then gets an MEP and so on until you elect all 6. :
Round 1 - SNP - 321,007 votes
Round 2 - Lab - 229,853 votes
Round 3 - Con - 185,794 votes
Round 4 - SNP - 160,504 votes (i.e 321,007 divided by 2)
Round 5 - LD - 127,038 votes
Round 6 - Lab - 114,927 votes (i.e 229,853 divided by 2)
By round six the SNP number was 107,002 (i.e 321,007 divided by 3)
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141 WUMBigBear -
"I am sorry to point out that your 22% and 78% figures are incorrect"
I'm sorry to have to point out the word estimated in my original post, written before I'd seen the final figures.
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146. "The SNP have become the real socialist party in Scotland..."
And there we have the core problem of the nationalist movement. To garner support for their all-encompassing goal of independence, the SNP have become a cross-spectrum populist party in a chase for maximum support.
So, are the SNP a socialist/left-wing public spending party or are they a right-wing tax-cutting party...you can't be both and no political party has ever lasted long while trying to be.
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148. "and the fact that if not even one person votes Tory in Scotland at the next General Election Scotland will have Tory government..."
Not a 'fact' at all. Just another of your highly unlikely scenarios.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Conservatives (apparently a very unpopular and unwanted party in Scotland compared to the "massively ever-popular" SNP) scored 60% of the SNP's votes.
And there's very little chance that any of those were disaffected Labour supporters, which can hardly be said for the SNP's vote.
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deadgoatsociety re 152
You have highlighted my lack of a "classic education" however I think that you got my gist.
I had this wonderful vision of our resident Ulster Unionist Reluctant/Derek sitting at his computer shouting low turnout, different voting system etc and now you have spoiled it. However he is still posting rubbish so I can still laugh.
Once Scotland leaves the onion, how long to a united Ireland reluctant?
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150. At 3:38pm on 08 Jun 2009, Reluctant-Expat
Yeah those funny statements get regurgitated a lot, they were classic bad timing and oh how he probably wishes he hadn't said anything.
Not quite as good as
"No more boom and bust", safe pair of hands, Iron Chancellor, our borrowing will be covered by growth.
Gonna stop now, don't have enough time or probably space for the others.
To keep throwing up silly little arguments about economy sizes as a block to Independence just beggars belief. Do smaller nations exist and thrive? Of course they do. I'm not sure about Independence, but hearing silliness like this adds credence to the SNP. If Labour and the Conservatives want to govern a United Kingdom, stop trying to scare people and show them how great it is instead. All this negativity will only play into Nationalist hands when it's ultimately debunked.
The main Labour argument against SNP previously has been inexperience and negativity, well they've been in power for a while now and we're still here, life goes on as normal. On second thoughts you might as well carry on, it may already be too late the tipping threshold may be breached.
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If anyone wanted proof that Broon is delusional they should read the article in todays Scotsman.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Brown-39Britain-wouldn39t--forgive.5342893.jp
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I don't know if anyone has pointed this out yet, but the paltry number of seats we have just shows what rubbish the idea is that Scotland has more influence as part of the UK than it would on its own.
Luxembourg (population about 490,000) has 6 MEPs, the same as Scotland (population about 5.14 million). Conversely, countries with similar populations to Scotland (Finland, Denmark and Slovakia, populations 5.2 million, 5.3 million and 5.4 million respectively) have a whopping 14 MEPs. Joining the EU as an independent country would then mean a rejigging of the numbers to keep the total MEPs around the 736 mark of course, but we would end up with at least twice the current number. Naturally, unionists argue that Scotland has a bigger say as part of the UK, but that would only be true if the UK MEPs acted as one unit, which is nonsense as they act as parts of their differing European Parliament party groupings. Even if it was true, it still means Scottish voices being filtered through UK-wide opinions, rather than going directly to Strasbourg.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apportionment_in_the_European_Parliament
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156. It's that simple, folks.
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#140 JCDBigBear, Your logic is flawed, as #141 HadriansWall has stated, if you do not vote, then you forego your chance to have a say.
This is why I never miss an opportunity to vote... it is the only right which we all have that maintains our democracy. People have died fighting for this right throughout the world and through history.
Yes, it dissapoints me that turnout was so low, but this is of no consequence to the final result, the SNP still beat labour by approximately 3 votes for every 2.
Finally, your wish to deny myself further democratic rights to have a say on the Scottish Constitution is again an attack on democracy. We should always strive for more freedom to have a say in politics, not less. An example of this was a commentator on the English results suggesting that Proportional Representation was a bad idea as it would let small party's like the BNP attain seats!... I guess this person is happy that seriously un-democratic FPTP system often denies the majority (70% in some cases) any political representation at all?
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Reluctant-Expat:
It's simple. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party came out on top but despite the gains the Conservatives made in Wales and northern England it was the Scots nationalists in Scotland that benefited from Labours shambles.
If it were a choice between SNP or Conservatives it seems we know who Scotland will choose.
I am also sure that the Conservatives have gained votes from 'New Labour' voters. Afterall, how many Tory voters supported Blair in 1997 and changed back to Tory since then?
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#159 Reluctant-Expat -
"Not a 'fact' at all. Just another of your highly unlikely scenarios."
Umm . . . so according to you then it's highly unlikely that the Tories will win the next General (Westminster) Election with a landslide share of the English vote, regardless of what happens in Scotland?
Crikey . . . you must be the world's most pessimistic Tory then because that's pretty much what everyone else expects to happen.
Care to share the reasons for your pessimism? Or was it simply that your desire for a quick rebuke got in the way of your ability to . . . y'know . . . read?
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#159 Reluctant-Expat
"And there's very little chance that any of those [Tory voters] were disaffected Labour supporters".
What's it like living in the 1980s?
Have you no idea what the New Labour experiment was all about, or the demographics of East Renfrewshire?
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161. Oh, come on! They weren't "bad timing" but just some examples demonstrating how this so-called economist (he created the RBS Oil & Gas Index, you know!) has very little idea what is happening in the world.
Right up there with saying Scotland should join the Euro because "their interest rates are lower". No hint of an understanding that they might have been lower for a reason (different economic cycles, different inflationary pressures, different debt levels, different growth etc.), just "their interest rates are lower".
And also claiming the Euro will be better as Scotland has little influence in BoE monetary decisions. Quite how Scotland will be more influential in a mostly-continental monetary zone encompassing 325m people, an economy of #10trillion and involves Germany, France and Italy, has never been fully explained. Not that that matters to certain posters on here who, as usual, are always ready to unconditionally agree.
Then there's his repeated references to a Scottish Oil Fund even though his own reports clearly show we spend all our oil tax revenues on existing services! Seriously, what the....?!
How many alarm bells need to ring until it starts to sink in that maybe he doesn't know what he's talking about?
The answer, of course, is it just doesn't matter how clueless he is about economics. He's the best chance the nats have for independence from those down south and that's all that is needed for their continued, unquestioning and absolute support.
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167. I can read. The question is 'can you?'. I'm also doubtful over your ability to also comprehend what you are reading. Go back and try again!
168. Well aware of the New Labour experiment and don't need to be reminded by someone who thinks their phone has been tapped by MI5, thank you very much. I think you and Master Porter need to wake up to the little factette that the vast majority (and it is almost certainly close to 'all') of the Tory-voters who voted Labour in 1997, that's twelve years ago, have long since returned to voting Conservative.
(It's always funny when the nats try to be 'condescending' but only succeed it looking even more ridiculous.)
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According to the STV data the final percentages seem to be (I've combined the Socialist factions).
SNP, 28.9%
Labour, 20.7%
Conservatives, 16.8%
Liberal Democrats, 11.5%
Greens, 7.3%
UKIP, 5.2%
Socialists, 3.8%
BNP, 2.5%
Christian, 1.5%
Independents, 1.5%
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#169 Reluctant-Expat
Given your reliance on school textbooks for your economic data, I think we can safely ignore your oft repeated and misleading assertions.
Re Oil I'm sure that you will have noted that the IEG Group to Calman specifically noted that "The application of the derivation principle and the widespread sharing of natural resource revenues is, as suggested above, especially observable in countries with federal systems of government where there is a history of tax sharing and where vertical fiscal imbalances are often less than that currently applying to Scotland. In contrast, the United Kingdom is a very centralist model of
fiscal control. This has not changed substantially since the creation of the Scottish Parliament and the advent of devolution in 1999. The tax raising powers of the Scottish Parliament are presently highly constrained and an almost total vertical fiscal imbalance prevails."
Since as always, you ignore that the UK has had a fiscal deficit for many years, that the Block Grant system is designed to replicate that deficit within Scotland, and that Scotland has no control over those expenditures deemed as "UK", your analysis falls.
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#170 Dear Reluctant-Expat -
I can't do the pseudo-weary shake of head and exasperated sigh as well as you but . . .
"I can read."
. . . as you (Above all people) should know just saying something doesn't make it so. For the second time of asking, why is it you're (And only you it seems) so dismissive of the Tories' prospective success in England that you think they'll need Scottish votes to win a majority?
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#170 Reluctant-Expat
"the vast majority (and it is almost certainly close to 'all') of the Tory-voters who voted Labour in 1997, that's twelve years ago, have long since returned to voting Conservative."
Eastwood/East Renfrewshire GE % voting 1992 - 2005
Party, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005
Labour , 24%, 40%, 48%, 44%
Conservative , 47%, 34%, 29%, 30%
You were saying?
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"The vast majority (and it is almost certainly close to 'all') of the Tory-voters who voted Labour in 1997, that's twelve years ago, have long since returned to voting Conservative."
So let's just pick say . . . Stirling . . . Forsyth lost in 1997 but now, presumably all those disaffected Conservative voters who backed Ann McGuire will have returned to the fold and we'll see their support in the Euro Election poll.
Except, of course, we didn't. Last Thursday Stirling returned in favour of the SNP not the Tories by a 5.7% margin.
Weird that, isn't it?
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169. At 6:27pm on 08 Jun 2009, Reluctant-Expat
Oh come on now really!
There are very few people in the whole world got it right, they don't include Brown,Darling,Osborne or Cable in their number. Are you so blinded by disapproval you can see nothing but bad?
If we stay in the UK, we will join the Euro at some point. If we go independent we will join the Euro at some point. So I can't really see the difference there.
Tend to agree with you about the interest rate and monetary influence points. There are lots of questions in that area and I have no real answers, however, at the current rate of UK borrowing that may not be an issue. We will probably run out of money within 5 years and end up getting bailed out by the EU, unless we get rid of tax and spend politicians like Brown and his Labour buddies. Which leads on nicely to why are we spending every penny and more, how can Norway develop an oil fund but we cannot. maybe they're not so keen on street football and diversity co-ordinators
Now that is a seriously what the...?
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#107 aye_write
"Anyone seen the share of the vote breakdown for England?"
I was up much too late last night and out much of the day, but as there are few points being made where I feel I can contribute, I've used the BBC website numbers to do the calcs and they do very much highlight the differences of both politics and mutual understanding between the three nations of Great Britain pointed out in oldnat's #63.
Here are the national splits and the island totals:
- England
- Wales
- Scotland
- Great Britain
If nothing else, the foregoing show how much less Eurosceptic Wales and Scotland are than England.Rank, Party, Per Cent, MEPs, +/-, Votes
1, Con, 28.97%, 23, +1, 3867407
2, UKIP, 17.63%, 12, 0, 2352853
3, Lab, 15.08%, 10, -4, 2013055
4, LibDem, 14.09%, 10, +1, 1880493
5, Green, 8.88%, 2, 0, 1185143
6, BNP, 6.59%, 2, +2, 879310
, Others, 8.76%, 0, 0, 1169639
, Total, 100.00%, 59, 0, 13347900
Rank, Party, Per Cent, MEPs, +/-, Votes
1, Con, 21.21%, 1, 0, 145193
2, Lab, 20.28%, 1, -1, 138852
3, PC, 18.51%, 1, 0, 126702
4, UKIP, 12.80%, 1, +1, 87585
5, LibDem, 10.68%, 0, 0, 73082
6, Green, 5.57%, 0, 0, 38160
7, BNP, 5.42%, 0, 0, 37114
, Others, 5.53%, 0, 0, 37832
, Total, 100.00%, 4, 0, 684520
Rank, Party, Per Cent, MEPs, +/-, Votes
1, SNP, 29.06%, 2, 0, 321007
2, Lab, 20.81%, 2, 0, 229853
3, Con, 16.82%, 1, 0, 185794
4, LibDem, 11.50%, 1, 0, 127038
5, Green, 7.28%, 0, 0, 80442
6, UKIP, 5.23%, 0, 0, 57788
7, BNP, 2.46%, 0, 0, 27174
, Others, 6.83%, 0, 0, 75416
, Total, 100.00%, 6, 0, 1104512
Rank, Party, Per Cent, MEPs, +/-, Votes
1, Con, 27.74%, 25, +1, 4198394
2, UKIP, 16.50%, 13, +1, 2498226
3, Lab, 15.73%, 13, -5, 2381760
4, LibDem, 13.75%, 11, +1, 2080613
5, Green, 8.61%, 2, 0, 1303745
6, BNP, 6.23%, 2, +2, 943598
7, SNP, 2.12%, 2, 0, 321007
8, PC, 0.84%, 1, 0, 126702
, Others, 8.48%, 0, 0, 1282887
, Total, 100.00%, 69, 0, 15136932
As you can see, the LibDems didn't quite beat NuLab into 4th in England, but because Aunty Beeb doesn't provide an England Politics website, you won't find anywhere here that NuLab only got 15.08% of the English vote.
I certainly can't find a headline anywhere on the Scotland politics or Wales politics drawing attention to what a dangerous neighbour England is becoming, when the BNP vote in England alone is nearly double the combined vote of the SNP and Plaid.
Perhaps a major part of the problem is that England doesn't have a mainstream nationalist party of its own, although it's probably encouraging that the English Democrats managed 279,801 votes and the mayoralty of Doncaster.
Post or reactive moderation for all except CBeebies, please!
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#132 JCDBigBear
"Who decides when a referendum is to be held?"
On the election coverage I have been able to watch, I've noted that although the official unionists reject fair voting out of hand, as always, they are now offering referenda on demand and using phrases like direct democracy and even words like the Swiss.
Obviously, like the Swiss, I disagree with them on fair voting but I'm 100% with them on Swiss-style referenda.
It varies [downwards] on the scope of the referendum, but any Swiss can call a referendum with the signatures [in ink, on paper] of about 2% of the relevant electorate. On that basis, and given that the Scottish electorate was 3,873,163 last Thursday, Aunty Bella and Cameron should be asking for about 77,500 signatures in order to guarantee the Tory MSPs voting in favour of the 2010 referendum.
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164
MUCH simpler than STV. All you need are the vote totals, the number of seats and simple maths does the rest.
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#179 eialba
"MUCH simpler than STV. All you need are the vote totals, the number of seats and simple maths does the rest."
True, which is why it caught on in the days before mechanical or electronic computing was widely available. The big downsides of the d'Hondt method are that: First, it puts the parties in control of the order in which their candidates are elected. Second, it doesn't make every vote count.
In Scotland, there were 240,820 wasted votes - 21.80% of the total. This is considerably more than what would have been the STV to elect an MEP quota of 184,086. Also, it was the SNP, NuLab, the Tories and the LibDems who decided which 6 party hacks were elected and not the electorate, as would have been the case under STV.
Granted that d'Hondt is less awful than Westmidden's plurality system, in terms of giving power to the people it is not a patch on the STV system used in these elections throughout the island of Ireland.
That said, your put down of R-E was well deserved.
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If you live in Scotland you should read this and email it to yer pals
The UKIP have done very well in this European Election with their simple message
"It costs the 60 million population of the UK £40 Million a Day to be in European Union". This equates to £243 per UK citizen per year.
If it was not for the controlled media in the UK the SNP could get a similar message out
"It costs the 5 million population of SCOTLAND £32 Million a Day to be in the UK Union" This equates to £2336 per Scottish citizen per year.
It would cost an Independent Scotland £3.33 million a day to be in the European Union, based on population alone. This is less than a tenth of the money we generous Scot's give to London, lock stock and barrel.
In 2007 Scotland gave London £12 Billon, or £32 Million a Day, or £22,831 a minute in North Sea Oil and Gas revenues, which are forecast by industry anaylists to last another 100 years.
This £32 Million a day could be used in an Independent Scotland to
re build 2 high schools or with 66 days money rebuild all of Scotland High Schools.
This £32 Million a day could fund the building of 16 Wind Turbines or with 16 Days money fund the building of the £500 million pound plan for 250 turbines to create the world's largest wind farm in the Hebrides.
NB Scotland has the potential to provide a quarter of Europe with green energy, which is a great incentive for an Independent Scotland to attract overseas companies to relocate in Scotland for cheap if not free electricity.
This £32 Million a day could promote Scottish Football is at the core of Scottish society, by giving each of the 12 Premier Division football clubs £2.66 Million each. That might help stop Rangers and Celtic defecting down South.
Please visit http://www.oilofscotland.org
for facts, figures, scandels and secrets regarding oil rich Scotland and our leaking Trident missiles.
If you are looking for a interesting bedtime story - print and read this TOP SECRET document into Scotland's Oil Rich Wealth Economy.
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
Whilst reading the first part of the document please think of Margaret Thatcher and what she and the Conservative Party did to Scotland. if you are too young to remember ask yer maw or da.
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[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
try this link incase last one was broken or just visit
http://www.oilofscotland.org/mccrone_oil_reports.html
to download both classified and non classified versions
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