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Budgeting for votes

Brian Taylor | 12:22 UK time, Tuesday, 3 February 2009

More re the Budget. A deal is now imminent with the Liberal Democrats. Details this afternoon but herewith a bit of info.

The Lib Dems will vote FOR the budget, switching from their opposition last Wednesday. Together with Tory support, that in itself will be enough to get the budget through tomorrow.

The deal? Nothing on immediate spending plans. Lib Dems felt it would be inappropriate to produce a shopping list at this stage - given that they had not entered negotiations at an earlier point because they were pursuing tax cuts.

Instead, SNP ministers will agree to table a letter to the Calman Commission urging that borrowing powers be conceded to Holyrood.

Further, it has been agreed that there will be a widespread review of spending by the Scottish Government. It is hoped that all parties - and external experts - will participate in this.

Neither, I think, will prove particularly onerous for the SNP given that they, self-evidently, back greater financial clout for Holyrood and would have to review expenditure anyway.

However, we should perhaps not be too tough on the LibDems. I believe they held a finger up to the wind - and detected public disquiet with political machinations at a time of economic crisis.

Releasing cash

The spending review is intriguing. It will be a single review - but with multiple objectives.

For ministers, it is a chance to prepare for an expected reduction of £500m in Scottish spending as a consequence of UK efficiency savings due to kick in from 2010-11.

For the Libdems, it is a chance to pursue savings which might then release cash for the tax cuts to which they remain committed.

Talks are still under way with the Greens. Which leaves Labour. Alex Salmond met Iain Gray this morning.

No deal yet. Labour wants more than 15,000 extra apprentices over two years - in itself a scaled down version of its original three year demand.

I understand ministers will offer 7,000 plus over a single year - with a pledge to look seriously at the second year.

That second year, however, would presumably come within the scope of the spending review agreed with the Lib Dems.

And timing? Think it might all now go through tomorrow.

Comments

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  • 1. At 12:53pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    Brian,

    This is indeed interesting but there doesn't seem to much to say until we see what happens tomorrow.

    How about some more digging today on your own By-election registers go missing

    A legal opinion on how far this can go and what precedents there are would be very useful.

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  • 2. At 12:53pm on 03 Feb 2009, Eoin_og wrote:

    I imagine the SNP sat the Lib Dems (and others) down and pointed out that if the budget were to fail again and an election to be called, the only certain winner would be apathy.

    But well played to the Lib Dems for compromising first, and without the extreme bargaining positions beloved of all political parties in the attempt to point score. It is a bit of a shame that the Greens will now lose all of their political punch - there was a real chance to secure large amounts of funding for environmental projects, which is now gone. But aside from that, good news all round.

    The only question remains: do the SNP continue to negotiate for Labour support, or do they simply tell them to get on their bikes as they are no longer needed? The latter might entail quite a bit of antagonism further down the line, but I would love to see the SNP let Labour flounder (and, of course, it is difficult to see how Labour could detest the SNP much more)

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  • 3. At 1:01pm on 03 Feb 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:

    "I believe they held a finger up to the wind - and detected public disquiet with political machinations at a time of economic crisis."


    If the Lib Dems weren't capable of realising this before the last budget vote then you really have to wonder what they're using for brains these days!

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  • 4. At 1:08pm on 03 Feb 2009, greenockboy wrote:

    The Glenrothes by-election register going missing is a huge story.

    Higher than expected turnout.

    75% increase in postal vote

    Polls predicting narrow SNP win

    Labour prepared for defeat.

    Result:
    Labour increase their share of vote despite a healthy swing to the SNP!!

    Labour majority unexpectedly high, almost 7000!!

    Yet, none of the thorough 'investagitive journalism', that accompanied the 'Trump' saga, followed.

    This latest revelation DEMANDS that the media in Scotland start scrutinising this election.

    What would it take for a journalist to finally accept that something may be amiss?

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  • 5. At 1:11pm on 03 Feb 2009, wildjackamo wrote:

    Lab.crowd hate the SNP and after hearing Duncan McNeil on newsnight Salmond should by pass them.Can just hear Lab claiming Salmond had to climb down to get Lab on board come on Mr Gray call your vote of no confidence if you dare.

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  • 6. At 1:11pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    On topic, the SNP may as well put the borrowing powers bit to Calman - I doubt it'll have any positive result in Westmidden, but it can do no harm. Perhaps the LibDem's Scott is growing up just a little, but a great pity for them that they didn't do this last week before they made fools of themselves.

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  • 7. At 1:12pm on 03 Feb 2009, NConway wrote:

    Iam pleased to see the Lib dems showing a little bit of common sense,hopefully a sign of things to come ? in my book the Lib dems have more in common with the SNP than they did with Labour by all means oppose the Government in power but please be sensible for the good of Scotland.

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  • 8. At 1:37pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #7 NConway

    I couldn't agree more - the pity is that their last 2 leaders haven't had the whit to understand it and do something about it.

    Better late than never, I suppose.

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  • 9. At 1:46pm on 03 Feb 2009, salmondella wrote:

    #4 Greenockboy

    Following a 5 mins study of a copy of Journalism for Dummies I have conducted a thorough investigation of the Glenrothes
    by-election result. The facts reveal that:

    SNP lost

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  • 10. At 1:46pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #4 greenockboy

    Spot on, but don't hold your breath!

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  • 11. At 1:48pm on 03 Feb 2009, Eoin_og wrote:

    It's a fair question to ask, whether the Lib Dems have done themselves more harm than good with their conduct concerning the budget. In my mind, they have done quite well - they went in with a definite plan for what their support would cost; it was not met, and they followed through and voted against; finally, they have comprised for the good of Scotland and given their support in exchange for other assurances which they believe in. Good on them, to my mind. I do appreciate that this could also be seen as disorganised and caving in, but I personally do not think that is what happened.

    And surely this counts as a triumph for the SNP as well? a minority government getting through their budget in the teeth of opposition from the party almost as large as they are? Mr Swinney may well be proud.

    And one last point concerning a political party no-one has touched upon (not at time of writing at least) - well played the Tories. I have to concede, were the Scottish Tories not linked to their southern counterparts, I might consider voting for them in certain circumstances. It's a shock to the system for myself, and it is grudgingly conceded; but there it is.

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  • 12. At 1:54pm on 03 Feb 2009, Dave McEwan Hill wrote:

    Brian

    You're awfully nice. Don't be. The LibDems are an unprincipled bunch of chancers who shot both their feet off last week in a massive piece of political misjudgement. I suspect their conversion is now just as damaging but they have left themselves with no real alternative.
    I would have to be very sure that they were about to eschew the political prostitution which they have made very much their own if they were to gain any trust from me. In particular their opposition to the proposed referendum is appalling and runs in direct contrast to the sometimes painful honesty the old Liberals used to pride themselves on.

    Might I quote an extract from their constitution.
    " We believe that sovereignty rests with the people and that authority in a democracy derives from the people. We therefore acknowledge their right to determine the form of government best suited to their needs"
    By referendum I presume.

    Hello. Hello.
    Any LibDems out there?

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  • 13. At 2:01pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #9 salmondella

    How constructive. I take it that you came to your findings after analysing the missing register and reviewing all of the postal vote applications.

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  • 14. At 2:03pm on 03 Feb 2009, cynicalHighlander wrote:

    This is basically a none story as the Liberals, Labour and greens have no alternative but be more realistic in their respective shopping lists.

    Glenrothes has hit on Guido

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  • 15. At 2:04pm on 03 Feb 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:

    #9 salmondella -

    No one's asking for an invetsigation of the by-election result, just an investigation of why the document that officially records the by-election result is missing.

    If you look in your copy of Journalism for Dummies you'll see on page 92: "Making sure you've got your facts straight before you shoot your foot off while it's in your mouth."

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  • 16. At 2:24pm on 03 Feb 2009, dubbieside wrote:

    Brian

    You are being far to kind to the Lib Dems.

    "I believe they held a finger up to the wind - and detected public disquiet with political machinations at a time of economic crisis."

    You could have written "the Lib Dems are too stupid for words, how any sane person or party thought that people would vote to take 800million out of Scotlands budget in a time of Browns recession beggars belief.

    I think long term the LDs have painted themselves into an even bigger corner. What happens when Calman says no to borrowing for Scotland, which they surely will. The only honorable course open to the LDs would be to withdraw from Calman.

    No ideas, no clue, no common sense, the worry is according to polls 16% of Scots would still vote for them.

    P.S. Tell Labour to take a hike. I would love to see Gray on Newsnight North Britain after they abstain again.

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  • 17. At 2:25pm on 03 Feb 2009, Eoin_og wrote:

    Hmmm, sneckagain, I think you are getting yourself mixed up with that quotation. The manifesto refers to general elections, naturally. Unless you choose to argue that to ratify the Lisbon Treaty would involve another government being put in place. Your problem there lies in the fact that you then have to draw a line as to when referendums should be used, and when it should be left to Parliament democracy. It is not an easy line to draw, and you eventually come to the situation where Parliament proposes a measure, and nationwide the public vote for or against it. Fantastic in theory, unworkable in practice.

    #14 - why do these parties have no alternative?

    And #15, I agree that to dismiss the whole affair out of hand as #9 did is unreasonable, but why do you think all thes people are shouting for an investigation? To punish an official who metaphorically accidentally pressed delete? It is to add fire to the conspiracy theories of course.

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  • 18. At 2:28pm on 03 Feb 2009, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Eoin,

    "And one last point concerning a political party no-one has touched upon (not at time of writing at least) - well played the Tories. I have to concede, were the Scottish Tories not linked to their southern counterparts, I might consider voting for them in certain circumstances. It's a shock to the system for myself, and it is grudgingly conceded; but there it is."
    I know how you feel. It's also possibly material that, come the Westmidden election, the new govmint may recognis the electoral advantage of Scottish independence....we can but hope...let England cope with a semi-permanent tory majority.

    I've long believed that, once independence is achieved, the SNP is likely to fragment and we'll be blessed with an even more diverse Parliament. perhaps the same will be likely in the new Tory England...?

    ;-)
    ed

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  • 19. At 2:29pm on 03 Feb 2009, handclapping wrote:

    #9 salmondella

    - Following a 5 mins study of a copy of Journalism for Dummies I have conducted a thorough investigation of the Glenrothes
    by-election result. The facts reveal that: SNP lost -

    I like it
    1 It confirms that New Labour have a copy
    2 it confirms that the content is "Lie."
    3 following 2 above it confirms that the title is actually:- Press releases to give the media (Journalism) to sell to (for) the electorate (Dummies)
    4 I phoned a friend, as Mandy does, (I have conducted a thorough investigation)
    5 Got to include something uncontentious (the Glenrothes by-election result)
    6 How unfortunate the results got shredded. (The facts reveal)
    7 I don't know how but we managed to not loose (SNP lost)

    What have you done to a once great party?

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  • 20. At 2:47pm on 03 Feb 2009, pattymkirkwood wrote:

    The Fiberals don't enter detailed discussion the first time and vote against; then they don't enter detailed discussions the second time and vote for!?

    They really are terrified of going to the country aren't they!

    Do they know they are meant to be representing their constituents, or does it just not occur to the poor dears?!

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  • 21. At 3:00pm on 03 Feb 2009, Chiefy1724 wrote:

    Actually, we shouldn't let Tavish off with this one. From "There must be an immediate 2p cut in income tax" to "Well, could yez mibbe drop a wee note to the Calman Commission 'coz we're feart tae say owt ".

    If your 2p Income Tax Cut was a "real" demand, or policy, Tavish, show some testicular fortitude and put your hands up and say "Oops, sorry, got it wrong, won't happen again".

    The Reality of the situation is that if it all went to the logical conclusion, the Liberals would be wiped out in Parliament.

    However, on the positive side, an outbreak of Realism from Liberals is always welcome, especially if it means that Eck will be able to, ahem, examine in great depth and seriousness the proposals from The Grey Man over Apprenticeships.

    What's the betting however that the NuLab Spin Machine will try to be painting The Grey Man as "The saviour of the Scottish Budget" with his "Willingness to compromise with the Nasty Nats to Save Northern Britain".

    Can we ask (doubtless in vain) that the Northern British BBC don't give this particular line of indigestible outpourings any airtime ?

    Note to Patrick Harvie. Gonnae No Dae That Again. You blew it Big Time and made the Greens as a party and yourself personally look like Knit-Your-Own-Numpties.

    RE#11 - Eoin-Og. A review of previous posts will reveal further my grudging cyber-Natical admiration for Aunty Bella and a suggestion that should she concentrate on positioning the Tories to work in an Independent Scotland, she might even get a list vote from me and several others besides once we have the SNP majority assured.

    Glenrothes. How Fascinating. This isn't a forty or fifty year old election result where the paperwork has been locked down the council basement and riddled with damp or has been shredded by the Janny's cat for bedding.

    This happened last year and was a crucial by-election that had he lost, Brown would have in all probability had a late-night visit from Mandy, dagger drawn.

    I don't think that the mechanism actually exists for challenging a by-election result by subsequent examination of the registers. (Happy to be informed otherwise however)

    Glenrothes remains British NuLab. For Now.

    Who's the MP again ?

    However, We The People of Scotland need to know What has gone wrong in order to ensure that it doesn't happen again and in this era of Honest and Open NuLab Government, that there was a 100% Free and Fair By-Election in Fife.

    Not that I'm suggesting that there wasn't, not that I'm suggesting Conspiracy (more likely just a wee bit of a mistake somewhere) it would Just Be Nice if we could have proof that there was Nothing to be worried about.

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  • 22. At 3:00pm on 03 Feb 2009, cynicalHighlander wrote:

    #9. salmondella
    Since you've a fascination for Dummies take yours out before in just in case you choke.

    Vote Rigging: a Banana Republic

    I used to be in favour of postal votes but not any more as it is open to abuse from care home, hospitals etc.

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  • 23. At 3:01pm on 03 Feb 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:

    # 17 Eoin_og

    It's not about "punishing" anyone and it's not about "conspiracy theories".

    It's about whether we want to live in a country where official documents can go "missing" and people are shouted down for questioning it, or whether we want to live in a country with transparency and accountability in its electoral system.

    I know which I prefer.

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  • 24. At 3:04pm on 03 Feb 2009, gt-cri wrote:

    #18, Ed Iglehart:

    "I've long believed that, once independence is achieved, the SNP is likely to fragment and we'll be blessed with an even more diverse Parliament. perhaps the same will be likely in the new Tory England...?"

    I too believe your first point. I fully believe the Tories and Labour shall also find a number of members also supporting what shall be the "status quo"!

    Not so sure about the second but as we shall only be observers over the metaphorical fence, I wish it happens and the English and Welsh move on from their (our) ridiculous "them or us" system.

    Stronger democracy awaits!

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  • 25. At 3:05pm on 03 Feb 2009, handclapping wrote:

    #17 Eoin_og

    What conspiracy theories? Can you give us some links?
    Some other "questions":-
    Why did the record go to Kirkcaldy courthouse and not Cupar?
    Who is the MP for Kirkcaldy?
    Did this MP have the support of more than every second person there?
    Is the distance between said MP's constituency office and the courthouse a) less than 50 yards b) half a mile c) seven miles?
    You read it here first or as Journalism for Dummies would say

    SCOOP ! ! !!!

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  • 26. At 3:11pm on 03 Feb 2009, dubbieside wrote:

    Brian

    The big political story in Scotland now is not the Scottish budget (done deal) but the voters register from the Glenrothes by-election that has gone missing.

    The London national papers have picked up on it, articles in The Independent and The Guardian, probably for the national democratic angle, so it will not be easy for the Scottish media to ignore.

    The first and most important point, since this was asked for in November, why has it taken until now to find out it was missing.

    Evidence once again of the Labour spin machine in operation "the votes were counted fair and square in front of the whole world" yes we know they were counted, but where did they come from? who actually voted? and why was there such a huge jump in the numbers of postal ballots?

    Until these questions are answered there will be a huge question mark over this election.

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  • 27. At 3:15pm on 03 Feb 2009, minuend wrote:

    I understand that Robert Mugabe and Vladimir Putin will be sending election representatives to Glenrothes to see how Postal Voting works in practice.

    There was always something 'fishy' about the Glenrothes by-election. The polling beforehand showed a SNP victory on a low turn out. The turn out was much higher than expected, including a four-fold increase in postal voting, that resulted in a Labour victory.

    It is not often you see the bookies get it wrong, but in Glenrothes they got their fingers burned.

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  • 28. At 3:21pm on 03 Feb 2009, forfar-loon wrote:

    However, we should perhaps not be too tough on the LibDems. I believe they held a finger up to the wind - and detected public disquiet with political machinations at a time of economic crisis.

    Or rather...

    I believe they held a finger up to the public - and detected a disquieting wind with political ramifications at a time of economic crisis.

    As to Glenrothes, an investigation of some kind would be sensible. No doubt it's just an accident, but the fairness of elections is pretty fundamental in a democracy. I wonder how common it is for these lists to go walkabout? I bet there are a fair few folk frantically scouring their filing cabinets as we type!

    And speaking of Glenrothes, any news on Lindsay Roy's performance as MP? What has he done for his constituents thus far? I'm in a state of blissful ignorance about this, no axe to grind. In the interests of balance what about that other fella, y'know the SNP one from Glasgow East whose name escapes me. Richter I think his name was... ;o)

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  • 29. At 3:24pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    Re the missing register, is it not odd that to follow this morning's Courier article, the BBC now feel the need to add a few NuLab smears to the end of it in this website's By-election registers go missing?

    Odder still, that the same smears, plus a few more, appear in the Scotsman's SNP calls for probe over missing Glenrothes by-election record, while the Herald ignores the story altogether - presumably until they can gather better smears.

    At the time of writing, the London media don't seem to have picked up on the NuLab angle, as evidenced by the Grauniad's SNP demands inquiry into missing byelection record and the Torygraph's SNP demands inquiry into missing Glenrothes by-election records.

    Both confine themselves to reminding us it was "a shock victory for Labour" with the Torygraph reminding us that "[a]ll of the major parties, including Labour on election night itself, had predicted that the Nationalists would win the seat".

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  • 30. At 3:41pm on 03 Feb 2009, pppiffle wrote:

    #9 salmondella

    More a case of consulting your copy of "Journalism for Labour Luvvies", more commonly known as the Daily Record.

    It is safe to assume that any journalistic investigation into the missing Glenrothes by-election register will not be conducted by the above publication.

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  • 31. At 3:44pm on 03 Feb 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:

    I notice the BBC has chosen to bury the "By-election registers go missing" story beneath the non-story "Deal done to pass Scottish budget ".

    It's disgraceful there isn't even a link to the missing electoral register story on the main Scotland news page.

    Looks like the BBC have read "Journalism for Dummies" but they mistakenly thought the "Dummies" were the people they would be writing the stories for.

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  • 32. At 3:44pm on 03 Feb 2009, Eoin_og wrote:

    #18 & 21, re the Conservatives: It would be much to their advantage should the Scottish Conservatives cut their ties, but as (so far as I am aware) their full name is the Conservative and Unionist Party (happy to be corrected on that one) I don't see that coming forth anytime soon. Regarding the SNP, they will have to disintegrate post independence - they comprise a widely diverging range of political views held together by a common thread of desiring independence. Once (if) that is achieved, there will be nothing left to hold them together and I imagine several diverse political parties will emerge.

    With regard to the loss of the official documents. #23 - if it is not about conspiracy theories, why the " " around the word missing? The plain implication is that the files are no longer with us due to a deliberate action. # 25 - tongue in cheek I am aware, but I feel the need to base my use of the words conspiracy theory, so see # 4.

    And I'll reiterate my support for the Lib Dem's actions with regard to the budget as both principled and reasonable for the points mentioned above.

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  • 33. At 3:48pm on 03 Feb 2009, rickyross wrote:

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.

  • 34. At 3:50pm on 03 Feb 2009, rickyross wrote:

    Re Glenrothes the ballot papers will still be available so I don't think the loss of the register means too much!

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  • 35. At 3:51pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    14 cynicalHighlander
    "Glenrothes has hit on Guido"

    Thanks for that - certainly some good conspiracy theories there. I particularly liked: "I understand now why they wanted inveade Iraq. They didn't want the oil, they wanted to get Saddams secrect dossier on winning elections when everybody hates you."

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  • 36. At 4:01pm on 03 Feb 2009, enneffess wrote:

    The issue re missing data from Glenrothes is a bit tricky.

    People must be very careful what they say.

    But I think the conspiracy theories might be stretching it a bit too far here. Too many people are involved in the process, and all would have to be involved.

    That is not an opinion, but information from someone who has worked years involved with elections. (Thought I would check first!).

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  • 37. At 4:01pm on 03 Feb 2009, handclapping wrote:

    #29 Browndov

    You forget that Journalism for Dummies advises you to get your retaliation in first.

    The SNP are remiss for not reminding us that Westminster are totally responsible for elections. Cue shambles in 2007 and now this!

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  • 38. At 4:04pm on 03 Feb 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:

    #32 Eoin_og


    I'd be delighted to explain my use of quotation marks around the word "missing."

    Pardon me if I use the same explanation you get from the BBC if you ask a similar question as to why they've used quotation marks around certain words.

    I used quotation marks around the word "missing" because I am QUOTING the word "missing" from the headline of the BBC's website story "By-election registers go missing".

    So YOUR consipiracy theory about the quotation marks being a "plain implication" that it is about conspiracy theories isn't the only explanation, unless the blinkers are on, of course!

    If you think my explanation's a mite too smug then that's too bad - if it's good enough for the BBC then it should be good enough for you.

    Incidentally, the "By-election registers go missing " story has now been further buried.

    It wasn't on the main Scotland news page. It was second lead on the Scottish Politics page, but it's now been reduced to just a link on the sidebar. Give it another five minutes and it'll disappear altogether!

    I wouldn't hold out much hope of this story being investigated by the BBC. It's hard to expose something when you're busy shovelling to bury it.

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  • 39. At 4:12pm on 03 Feb 2009, greenRiordan wrote:

    11 Eoin_ og

    I have some empathy with your view of POSSIBLY voting Tory, but then I see Bill Aitken's face as he works himself into a rage to supply tne Daily Mail's next anti-SNP headline, and the feeling goes away.

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  • 40. At 4:15pm on 03 Feb 2009, handclapping wrote:

    #34 rickyross3359
    - Re Glenrothes the ballot papers will still be available so I don't think the loss of the register means too much! -

    The ballot papers so carefully "counted in front of the worlds press" are of little use of they are not tied back to the names and places of those who "voted". They would be of value if scrutiny of the registers showed people voting by post and in person or when dead or in person when away etc. but you need to have a case before the courts will open the secrets of the ballot box and without the registers it is almost impossible to make that case in the first instance.

    Shows somebody knew what they were doing = conspiracy again!

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  • 41. At 4:15pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #28 forfar-loon
    "And speaking of Glenrothes, any news on Lindsay Roy's performance as MP?"

    According to http://www.theyworkforyou.com/ he's loyally voted with the government 40 times already and has yet to be less than 100% loyal to Duff Gordon. No surprise there, then.

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  • 42. At 4:20pm on 03 Feb 2009, pattymkirkwood wrote:

    "The ballot papers were counted fair and square in front of the eyes of the world."
    -Scottish Labour spokesman

    Is it just me, or does that make you more uneasy if anything?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2331951.stm
    "Saddam wins 100% support"

    & lets not forget Labour themselves have form in electoral fraud,

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article377468.ece

    The biggest worry has always been postal ballots which increased hugely for the Glenrothes by-election,

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/28/rowntree_election_failings/

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  • 43. At 4:24pm on 03 Feb 2009, pattymkirkwood wrote:

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2009/02/03/newsstory12588327t0.asp

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  • 44. At 4:24pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #34 rickyross3359
    "Re Glenrothes the ballot papers will still be available so I don't think the loss of the register means too much!"

    Not true. All they could possibly be used for it to recalculate the result as they're not supposed to contain anything to identify the actual voter.

    OTOH, the register could be checked against records of deaths and the applications for postal votes.

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  • 45. At 4:27pm on 03 Feb 2009, Chiefy1724 wrote:

    #32 Eoin-Og

    Like it or not, the Tories represent a significant point of view in Scotland. Its only just over 50 years ago that they returned 55 MPs from Scotland, and there is a vein of big and small-C conservatism that runs gey deep in many parts of this land and is manifested by a Tory vote.

    In an Independent Scotland, there will simply be no place for a Unionist Party, in exactly the same way that there were no Unionist Parties in Eire after '22. Does that mean that the party, its infrastructure, its voters, will disappear ? No, of course not, they will still be there, minus their Union but with opinions to be heard and a contribution to make to the Nation.

    Now, don't get me wrong, I abominate the British Conservative Party and all of its works. Speed the day that Call-Me-Dave gets into Number 10 because it will hasten our inevitable freedom.

    However, Aunty Bella and the rest of them aren't going to up sticks and move south of the Border. They'll still be here and in the first elections for a Free Scottish parliament, I am willing to bet that they'll actually do not too badly if they bite the bullet and say that We Are Scots Tories and not British Unionists.

    Agree, it is likely that the SNP will disintegrate, there will be a few sessions of "getting the country on it's feet" and then the inevitable splits and schisms. Witness South Africa and the ANC.

    As I said to a boy from the SSP on the street in Paisley the other day, "We'll concentrate on Independence first and then try for Socialism afterwards", and he ruefully nodded his head and said "Aye, you're mebbe right there".

    As for your contention that the Liberals have been principled and reasonable, I refer the Honourable Gentleman to my #12 in "Budget Trigonometry" and comments therein on Mr Scott.

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  • 46. At 4:29pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #37 handclapping
    "The SNP are remiss for not reminding us that Westminster are totally responsible for elections. Cue shambles in 2007 and now this!"

    Fair point. I certainly hope they get it in soon, especially when the BBC and the Scotsman quote NuLab as saying: "an SNP government department lost confidential personal data again".

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  • 47. At 4:44pm on 03 Feb 2009, salmondella wrote:

    #15 Bighullabaloo

    Yep, I have read page 92 (one of my particular favourites) in quite a surprisingly weighty tome and I can exclusively reveal that many a garbled comment on these blogs do come as a result of such incidents.

    Remind me, are you able to stand unaided? ;-)

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  • 48. At 4:46pm on 03 Feb 2009, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Eoin,

    "(so far as I am aware) their full name is the Conservative and Unionist Party (happy to be corrected on that one) I don't see that coming forth anytime soon"
    It was revealed on these pages a few days ago that the "unionist" is an anachronistic Irish reference, and has nothing to do with Scotland.

    Slainte!
    ed

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  • 49. At 4:49pm on 03 Feb 2009, minuend wrote:

    Can you imagine the media reaction if there doubts about the Glasgow East by-election. Jackie Bird would be twittering non-stop on Reporting Scotland about SNP being involved in an election scandal. It would be the main feature on Newsnicht.

    Polling for Glasgow East was bang on the money - small SNP victory predicted - 20% swing to the SNP predicted - smaller turn out predicted - bookies bang on the money.

    Polling for Glenrothes was completely wrong - on who would win - on the swing - on the turnout - even the bookies got it completely wrong.

    A four fold increase in the postal vote at the Glenrothes by-election has never been properly explained. There is a need to do that.

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  • 50. At 4:49pm on 03 Feb 2009, Eoin_og wrote:

    Drat - I attempted to post something, yet it seems to have been lost. This will have to be a somewhat shortened version then.

    #38 - my apologies, I misinterpreted your quotation marks and apologise unreservedly. That said, I still maintain my position that there are several conspiracy theories on this thread: (i) That the BBC are somehow trying to bury the news; (ii) That there will be no inquiry due to ulterior motives; and (iii) those ulterior motives involve a miscarriage of democracy in the Glenrothes by-election.

    The first can be shown by your own comments in the aforementioned post, from the word 'incidentally' to a, in my own opinion, somewhat melodramatic statement at the end of that post. It can also be rebutted by pointing out that the BBC are reporting it, there are several references to the story on this forum and you yourself quoted the word "missing" from said BBC story, as you keenly pointed out.

    The second and third - I reference #26 & 27 to show it. To rebut, I would say that the news has just broken and to prejudge the issue and say there will be no inquiry is to show too much haste; and to leap from that to state what the motive is behind it leads to the same conclusion. I would endorse the words in #36.

    Hmmm - not so short. Apologies all.

    P.S. It happened again - fortunately for me, copy & paste worked alright. Is there a technical issue for anyone else?

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  • 51. At 4:54pm on 03 Feb 2009, Eoin_og wrote:

    Ah no, it worked fine this time.

    Moving past the glenrothes story and theories around it and back towards the topic, although perhaps not there yet. #39 - that is a fair point, although many parties have their distasteful elements. I think Chiefly makes excellent points, and agree with the conclusions he draws re the Scottish Tories and the SNP. I would only state that I did not mean to infer that the Tory infrastructure would disappear in the event of independence, I am aware it would continue on, and undoubtedly rebrand themselves as Scottish Conservatives. I will undoubtely sicken him by stating that even if that did happen, although I would agree the new party could well do rather well, I personally would still vote Lib Dem.

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  • 52. At 5:07pm on 03 Feb 2009, forfar-loon wrote:

    #41 Brownedov: Thanks for that revelation!

    I was actually hoping for some anecdotal stories of their performance. Have they saved a hospital/a post office/a youth club/the taxpayer a fortune in expense claims?

    We all got worked up enough before the contests, what about afterwards when it actually counts...?

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  • 53. At 5:08pm on 03 Feb 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:

    #50 Eoin_og

    Well, you know what, you've convinced me!
    There definitely IS something fishy about this Glenrothes register business!

    I was willing to give it the benefit of the doubt but since you're going to such trouble of goign through all my posts and quoting the numbers of posts, to try to convince me there isn't a conspiracy - it's now looking like you're protesting far too much!

    If someone were to come on here and take the reasonable view that conspiracies SOMETIMES do happen then that might be a different thing. However all we ever get on here is that conspiracies NEVER happen. If only we could all be so blissfully ignorant!

    You know that old saying "there's no smoke without fire".

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  • 54. At 5:13pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #48 Ed Iglehart
    "It was revealed on these pages a few days ago that the "unionist" is an anachronistic Irish reference"

    Would you recall the thread or the poster? The BBC search is useless here, and Googling "bbc brian taylor blether unionist" produces too many to sift through.

    To the best of my belief it was first used by Jo Chamberlain c.1890 when his "Liberal Unionists" broke away from Gladstone's mainstream Liberals.

    That was indeed about home rule for Ireland but surely the term is apposite for anyone wanting a unitary UK state.

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  • 55. At 5:15pm on 03 Feb 2009, forfar-loon wrote:

    #50 Eoin_og: you could try writing your post in notepad (or similar), then copying and pasting into the comment box just before submitting.

    BTW don't come on here with your calmness, reason and logic! Such behaviour will get you nowhere! ;o)

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  • 56. At 5:26pm on 03 Feb 2009, Ed Iglehart wrote:

    Eoin On disappearing posts, Ampersand is sometimes a problem, as are any unclosed (or unsymmetrically closed) HTML tags. Some pointers here

    Good luck
    ed

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  • 57. At 5:32pm on 03 Feb 2009, bighullabaloo wrote:

    Anyone else notice how the moderation slows down to a snail's pace when people insist on talking about something other than what Auntie wants us all to swallow?

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  • 58. At 6:42pm on 03 Feb 2009, U11655018 wrote:

    So ten minutes into Reporting Scotland and no sign of the Glenrothes story, instead we have the fluffy animal donation story and the no show snow show.

    I await Newsnicht with some trepidation.

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  • 59. At 9:38pm on 03 Feb 2009, greenockboy wrote:

    This is the official figures released under a freedom of information request.

    GLENROTHES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 2005

    Postal votes issued 4,181
    Postal votes into count (not available)

    Total Votes Cast 37,414


    GLENROTHES BY-ELECTION 2008

    Postal Votes Issued 6,954
    Postal Votes into count 5,548

    Total Votes Cast 36,220

    A 1200 drop in voter turnout, yet an increase of almost 3000 postal votes issued.

    Sadly there is no way to calculate the increase in postal votes actually cast compared to 2005.

    The Glenrothes by-election must be the clearest example ever of an election that was crying out for some investigation.

    The register of voters now disappearing simply reinforces the case.

    Let's put it another way:

    If you had to invent a scenario that would lead to an inquiry into an election then what 'classic' signs would you describe in the investigators manual?

    Furthermore, what document would need to be destroyed in order to prevent any fraud from being uncovered by an inquiry?

    Lastly, would you expect the media to plaster this story all over the front pages and to be all over it like a rash?

    Does this suggest fraud? No, however the circumstantial evidence is now so strong that there must be an investigation in order to ensure that the democratic process is sound.

    If Glenrothes doesn't now result in an investigation then it is sending a signal to would be fraudsters that our electoral process has no warning system worth worrying about. - The alarm is ringing and the window is broken but the authorities have walked on by.

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  • 60. At 9:54pm on 03 Feb 2009, aye_write wrote:

    #59 greenockboy

    Ooh, I hope they do. (I have a new telly in my bedroom so I could watch it on there.)

    Who would need to be satisfied that there was a need for an investigation so that one could be called?

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  • 61. At 10:05pm on 03 Feb 2009, Dave McEwan Hill wrote:

    #17

    I'm afraid you're mixed up. The quotation I used is from the LibDem CONSTITUTION.

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  • 62. At 10:23pm on 03 Feb 2009, Barbazenzero wrote:

    #59 greenockboy

    Excellent post, but better put on the new thread, I think.

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  • 63. At 09:43am on 04 Feb 2009, salmondella wrote:

    #59

    Greenock?? boy - who did you vote for in the Glenrothes election?

    What are you actually accusing the Scottish Court Service of?

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  • 64. At 10:28am on 04 Feb 2009, bingowings87 wrote:

    For the benefit of #15 and #46, and the sundry other conspiracy theorists on here...

    #15. The document which has gone missing is not "the document that officially records the bye election result" as you incorrectly allege. Instead, it is the document that records who voted, that has gone missing.

    #46. The Scottish Court Service, who lost the document, are an agency of the Scottish Government (SNP controlled). The Council which handed them the document, Fife Council, is SNP / Lib Dem controlled.

    You really couldn't make it up....2 SNP controlled organisations contrive to lose personal data, and in the parallel universe that constitutes this blog, the SNP sympathisers believe it to be a Labour conspiracy!

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  • 65. At 12:29pm on 04 Feb 2009, handclapping wrote:

    #64 bingowings87

    That's very New Labour, it wisna me. The Scotland Act reserves elections to Westminster so they are responsible. Have we heard from their lackey in Scotland? Not a peep. It's Labour's responsibility and they're trying to shift the blame.

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