Glenrothes by-election
UPDATE AT 0059:
Very narrowly focused contest. Tories squeezed. Libs squeezed out of sight.
Both Tories and Libs lose their deposits as do all the other candidates.
Labour vote up 3.2. SNP vote up 13.1.
UPDATE AT 0056 GMT:
Details suggest that Labour has actually increased its share of the vote.
SNP share up too - by much more. But overall picture, taking those two factors together, is a swing which I reckon is only 5%.
Good in other circumstances - but not good in a seat which the SNP had said they would win. Plus Labour has also taken two council seats tonight.
A good night for Labour. A poor one for the SNP.
UPDATE AT 0047: GMT
Labour wins. Major boost for Gordon Brown. Lindsay Roy's first point in accepting vmictory? The claim of council cuts by the SNP.
UPDATE AT 0043 GMT:
Glenrothes not the only by-election tonight. Two council wards contersted: Glasgow Baillieston and Edinburgh Forth. Word is Labour has won both.
UPDATE AT 0022 GMT:
From the count, Labour now speaking of "confidence" that they have won - and that they might take council ward by-elec tions too.
SNP now talking of "halving" the Labour majority.
UPDATE AT 0003 GMT:
Quote from a senior member of the Labour team: "I'm smiling a lot more than I have done for weeks."
If Labour has won, it is a seriously good result for them. If the SNP lose, it is a significant setback for them.
The determining factor? Perhaps the Labour attack on the local council under the SNP.
UPDATE AT 2339 GMT:
Yet more gossip. Early boxes perhaps indicate Labour victory. Jim Murphy now forecasting Labour victory. Libs fourth? Toiries third.
UPDATE AT 2314 GMT:
The Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy says Labour has been fighting an "uphill battle" in the constituency.
He says that his party retains a "fighting chance" of winning the seat.
Remarkable, given that this is a seat with a ten thousand UK general election majority.
Reasonable, given that the SNP hold the comparable Holyrood seat and are the lead party in the council.
The Tories and the LibDems have disclosed that neither expects victory tonight. Another BBC Scotland exclusive!
UPDATE AT 2255 GMT:
Returning officer at the count says he hopes for a result before or by 0100 GMT.
There are 49 polling stations and 95 ballot boxes to count. Word from the count still that it is tight.
Polls closed, count under way, result due around 0100. First news, as ever, on BBC Scotland. Yes, folks, it's a by-election night.
I'll be blogging throughout the night. But, unlike for Glasgow East where I was a wounded observer, I'll also be in studio to offer punditry and random cheek.
So if you see me on the telly battering away furiously at a computer terminal - then that's another blog in the making.
Early tips from Glenrothes? Tight but looks like the SNP may have taken the seat.
Split showing
That's partly because the LibDems may be struggling to hold up their vote as well as they'd like. (A good LibDem showing splits the anti-Labour vote.)
But I stress. That's early - VERY early - gossip. Informed - but not authoritative.
Don't hold it against me if it's wrong. Just thought you deserved to know what folk on the ground are mostly saying.
Stay with it. This is going to be intriguing.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~46~RS~)
Comments
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It's about time the Lib Dems were put to sleep. They cause more problems to a party which relies on them to maintain a majority in Government.
Why? Because they manage to get some of their policies implemented in order to keep them onside.
People have a go - quite rightly - at some of Labour's policies, but the Lib Dems in my opinion are worse.
Alex Salmond would do well to keep them at arms length.
One thing that intrigues me: why is it that both Labour and SNP acitivists have actually been pushing for votes for a change by knocking on doors? Last time around no party even bothered to comer round, and even worse at the polling booth the only party acitivists who made the effort to speak to me on the way in were the Scottish Socialists! (No, they didn't get my vote but at least they tried). The SNP and Labour people were chatting away.
Both parties have to realise that if they want to squeeze every vote they need to speak to people. Even if the first ten households do not like your party, one might decide to give you a vote simply because you have tried.
How it goes tonight? I'm waiting for the result. All the speculation in the world won't mean a thing.
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Brian, I'm interested to know how you come to the conclusion that the SNP may have taken the seat, since you are being exposed to activists who have a vested interest in talking up their chances. As my Maths teacher would have said "show me your workings boy".
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A safe Labour seat on a knife edge?
Depressing news for the Labour Party already, I venture to suggest.
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Collapse of the LD vote wouldn't be surprising. The big shift between 2005 and 2007 was the shift of LD voters to the SNP.
Scottish opinion polls have confirmed this through 2008.
If LD leadership don't see that their only hope of seeing Liberal values survive in Scotland is to move much further to fiscal autonomy and co-operation with the SNP, then they risk disappearing.
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Glenrothes quote:
You just don't win elections any more by telling them that you're Labour.
Well I never Quote source.
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Can't imagine you sticking your neck out without a pretty good tip Brian.
Hope you are correct!
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I hope the Scottish National Party have managed to win over the people of Glenrothes. If they have, perhaps we are witnessing end to the 'one party state' in Scotland.
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Here's hoping the good people of Glenrothes have followed the brave and voted for SNP.
soar alba
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I'm liveblogging tonight too.
Any word on turnout/ potential loss of deposits for Lib Dem/ Tory candidates?
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come on moderator get the postings aproved
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"That's partly because the LibDems may be struggling to hold up their vote as well as they'd like."
No Brian, that is absolutely impossible.
The Lib Dems have been telling us all through the campaign that they were going to win.
And the Lib Dems wouldn't lie to us.
Would they?
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It's inevitable that Labour will be out on their ear next election. The interesting thing will be whether Alex Salmond will be able to time his referendum in time for the anti tory backlash. I predict that even if he does the majority of Scots won't go for it and we will be left with a polygamous marriage with two warring spouses.
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Brian, love those braces :oD
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I just hope your informed gossip is correct and accurate. Every blow against these hideous fascists in that nasty socialist party calling itself new labour , sweetens the prospect for a return to democracy and civil freedom in this country.
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Hey Brian, watching you on the tele just now - great galluses!!!!!
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Loving the braces Brian!
Murphy looks a bit feart! Sturgeon looks a little smug.
Be interesting to see what happens.
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Oldnat, 4
Exactly right. But the LD hierarchy shows no sign of accepting this, which is why I recently left the party.
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#2
When you are at a count, activists usually run around encouraging each other saying all sorts of rubbish things. But if you stand and watch the actual votes falling out of the ballot boxes/plastic cartons prior to counting, it becomes clear very quickly how the overall will develop. You're seeing a snapshot, but it is based on the real votes as inscribed... Q
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Brown Bounce -
I've seen more Bounce from a raw egg.
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Of course, some of us won't be able to see Scotland's foremost political correspondent battering away on a keyboard because iPlayer doesn't extend to the USA. We have to put up with paid adverts on the website but are denied full service.
I suppose I'll have to rely on STV (again). So that I don't have to listen to their prattling any longer than I have to, a regular update on when the count is expected would be really helpful. Someone, please take pity upon us expats!
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I'd hate people to have missed Expat's last post on the previous thread.
251. At 11:05pm on 06 Nov 2008, Reluctant-Expat wrote:
240. Heavens, you are interesting.
And look at you all, so very excited about a small election in which Labour were always guaranteed a hammering.
I look forward to later reading how this is 'absolute' 'confirmation' of the 'undeniable' 'fact' that 'independence is inevitable' (despite every shred of evidence suggesting precisely the opposite) and is totally unrelated to any unpopularity of a beleaguered government that has been in power for 11 years.
I wish I could hang around to watch the inevitable mass hysteria unfold. I really do.
Enjoy your collective squelchy moment, y'all!
Hugs.
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I hope the predictions are right, SNP WIN
brian ...BLUE TIE.......GLEN in stripes....and nicola in RED.......the world has gone mad...
gaurdian has turnout at 48 % or round about there....
herald has stopped comments...surprise surprise......
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#20 Skip_NC
We still don't have turnout figures, but certainly not before 7.30 EST - more probably around 8.00 EST
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oh apparently its 52 percent turnout
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#20 Skip_NC
Turnout 53% - rumours from the count that Labour have won.
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Sounds like an embarrassing failure for the SNP but early days yet.
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To someone from the BBC management/editorial team:
Why was the BBC's all-night coverage of the US election result two nights ago viewable anywhere in the world, yet expats living outside the UK can't watch the coverage of an election in their own country?
Something seems a bit the wrong way round there.
And I mean... It's not as if you don't have the international rights to your own coverage of a by-election in Glenrothes!
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Brian,
disappointingly, you've called it wrong. Looks like Labour have easily won.
bah humbug!
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Labour win?
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oldnat and richglasgowprincess,
Thanks for the updates.
Over here there is high drama and a bit of comedy. Rachel has just broken up with Ross. That's right, the best we have is re-runs of "Friends."
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c'mon mods get these approved....cant keep up
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malcintheburgh.blogspot.com
If you fancy more commentary...
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Shame about the whisper from the count, though, oldnat.
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#9 MalcintheBurgh
See the Grauniad's http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/nov/06/glenrothes-byelections-labour-snp
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#28 irnbru_addict: cheer up, at least it seems RE went to bed before his moment of triumph, his parting shot being as inaccurate as usual! That just leaves us with one other troll to ignore ;o)
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Paradoxically a win here would pretty much spell the end for Labour at the next General Election.
Their only realistic chance of defeating the Tories is to get Brown out.
And the only realistic chance of that happening was a by-election humiliation here...
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I'm holding off making any comments (apart from this one).
Stand by for ultra-nationalist / ultra-unionst waffle after the result. Unless they have al been tied to their beds :p
Meanwhile, back to more comedy on You Tube!
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Back to the alternative universe that is the Herald forum for the Nats.
Welcome to the real world guys.
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Skip
Result possible around 7.30 EST
Labour look to have a significant majority.
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#39
Oldnat, how do you like these apples?
Niel-small...............Reluctant-Expat
good work!
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So labour have won. Shame really because Kirkcaldy High have been done out of a good rector and labour now have more fodder from Westminster.
Doubt if he'll do anything in Westminster other than toe the party line as he was uttterly ineffective media wise.
Congratulations though and commiserations to the SNP. Not to worry onwards and upwards SNP.
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#33 Skip_NC
Declaration expected very soon. Might be time to switch to STV
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So no Brown bounce and a by election won on mainly local issues. Sounds to me that Labour were too frightened to talk national politics.
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A 5,000 majority, according to Angus Robertson. What on earth happened?
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A lot seems to be made of the SNP's record as leaders of Fife council for the last 2 years. Ho hum, how about Labour's record in Fife council over the previous 25 years.
My experience of Laboutr's handling of Fife.
Over crowded schools
Almost 1 hour bus journeys to schools from some areas
(Madras from Newport, Bell Baxter from Newburgh)
Well publicised deliberate abuse of non-labour areas.
The sooner Fife council gets subsumed into Greater Fife and Greater Edinburgh the better as far as I am concerned.
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Brownedov,
Just tuned in. Who's the wee bairn being very rude to Kenny McAskill? He needs a good clip round the ear.
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looks like the brave new free world, heralded by obama's rise, has been beaten back in glenrothes
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I'm a non-party member from Markinch, in Glenrothes.
It's innaccurate to portray the Labour campaign as relentlessly about the council issues and snp as somehow positive. They were all mixed. The SNP campaign sent out several leaflets about fuel bills under labour...and Labour also sent out leaflets about what a nice guy their candidate was.
I certainly wouldn't say that Labour had been any more negative than the SNP.
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I must say I'm really enjoying the SNP squirming on telly particularly Nicola. Can I just say David Mundell and Anne McGuire should be a double act - they are clearly enjoying this!
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The New MP for Glenrothes needs to take a lesson or two from Messrs McCain and Obama in how to make a speech.
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Labour actually increased their share of the vote from 51.91% to 55.11% - astonishing
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SNP increased their share of the vote from 23.37% to 36.49% but it was entirely at the expense of the LibDems and Tories, who both lost their deposits.
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I did predict it would be hard for the SNP if the turnout was above 50%, but clearly the Labour vote held up even better than predicted, and 48% would probably have been enough.
Shows the power of the media, I suppose.
Goodnight all.
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#42 Brownedov: hey! There's a queue here y'know! There must be a dedicated Swiss mod :o)
A few thoughts on the night's events:
1. Looks like Labour have run an effective campaign and got their vote out well - congratulations to them. +3% isn't bad at all.
2. Looks like the SNP have pushed reasonably hard, increased their vote (+13%) but come up short. Damaging for Eck given how high his profile has been in this campaign. A touch of humble pie in order methinks.
3. Tories and LibDems vote collapsing with the Tories squeezing the Lib Dems into fourth place - in Fife! What can they do to recover?
4. Here's hoping Lindsay Roy does a good job for Glenrothes. He seems a decent chap. As a "non-politician" (and I'm all in favour of them - Plato's philosopher kings and all that!) he'll have a lot to learn about the workings of Westminster.
5. More generally, how do the Tories handle Labour's revival? And does Gordon Brown go for an early election before the recession bites?
6. Where is bighullabaloo?! ;o)
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Percentage share in last 3 elections in Glenrothes/Central Fife
Year, Lab, ___SNP, __Con, __LD, __Other
2005, 51.9%, 23.4%, 7.1%, 12.7%, 5.0%
2007, 39.9%, 44.2%, 7.4%, 8.5%
2008, 55.1%, 36.5%, 3.8%, 2.6%, 2.0%
I'm not sure I've ever seen such a squeeze for the 3rd/4th parties.
The comparison with 2007 is the more important.
Labour up 15.2%, SNP down 7.7%, Con down 3.6%, LD down 5.9%
Are the Lib-Dems a real presence any more?
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One final thought: how's about renaming this blog Blether with Brownedov? Nobody else is getting a look in! ;o)
I think I'll experiment with routing posts through a proxy server in Switzerland in future!
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What on Earth has gone on here? For weeks and months, and right up until less than TWO HOURS before the declaration, all the media were saying "SNP win", with varying degrees from narrow to comfortable.
Now, I've always regarded this election as suspicious, because I've never in my life heard the incumbent party - especially one with such a large majority - so constantly describe itself, and be described, as the underdog. But even so, and even if Labour were just massively managing expectation, how in the world have the media got this SO wrong? It wasn't even close. 6000 is a huge majority in the circumstances, so why didn't ANYONE see it coming?
In the bigger picture, it matters little. Neither a Labour or SNP MP will make the slightest difference on the Westminster backbenches, and however you slice it this is in fact still a hefty swing from Labour to the SNP. But I'm a lot more concerned about the media aspects of this election, which have been dodgy from the off. Come on Brian, you're supposed to be the professionals - how have you all got this so wrong?
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Disaster - for the Lib Dems. They just may get wiped out come the next general election.
And not so good for the SNP. It is definitely appears to be local issues that were important.
Despite gaining a few thousand votes and slashing the majority, it is not nearly good enough. I am genuinely surprised that Labour won, let alone the size of the majority. Labour have INCREASED their votes.
A swing of 8% is very good, but serious questions still need to be asked of how the SNP is going to move forward. They must, must concentrate on local issues or otherwise they will have peaked.
A little bit of sour grapes from Nicola Sturgeon. Local issues ARE important to voters. About time the SNP realised that there is more to politics than Alex Salmond's charisma.
A good effort, but must do much better.
The big danger for the SNP is that things start to improve for Labour. Labour know England is a minefield, and they are likely to lose many seats. They will be looking to gain the initiative now in Scotland.
It seems as well that Labour have won the two council elections as well.
And yes, very nice braces Brian!
I'm off to bed before the trolls come out to play.
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I like Jim Sillars argument on TV just now.
The SNP parked the Independence issue for Party reasons.
Many of those of us who continue to argue for a new constitutional settlement, are more concerned about progressing that, than the fate of a particular party.
Shame for Kirkcaldy High.
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So now we await the announcement in the media that the SNP's honeymoon period is over, even though Labour's majority was cut substantially, which was the best I had hoped for before the events in Glasgow East, and to be honest I still didn't expect the SNP to win this one.
I feel I have to say well done to Labour, though. Well done for cynically holding the by-election the day after the new US president would be announced, thus placing Glenrothes firmly in the background. Well done for successfully convincing people that Scotland wouldn't have been able to pay out such huge bailouts to its two main banks, when the reality is that it happened on your watch in the first place, not an independent Scotland's. Well done for getting the media back round your little finger.
Oh and thanks to the voters of Glenrothes for believing everything they read and hear in the media. Noam Chomsky would be proud of you.
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Now that the results are in...
I suspect that the greatly reduced Conservative & Lib-Dem vote is due to these parties' supporters "lending" their vote to Labour as an anti-SNP vote.
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The Tweedledees makes a comeback.
Nae luck tweedledums.
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As a long term supporter of an independent Scotland this is a little disappointing but it doesn't matter so much. It would be good to think that the people of Fife had got wise to the sleaze of the SNP and their ridiculous support for the billionare bully Trump and his deplorable development at Balmenie, their blind support for the 'heroes of business' and the fools of the banking world that have undermined the Scottish economy.
More likely it was local issues that defeated them and this is entirely healthy. Start again Alex and your seedy crew.
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If it had actually mattered, the SNP vote would have turned up to ensure victory.
It doesnt.
A good night for Labour? Anything that wasn't a defeat would be good for Labour.
I think you'll find 'voter apathy' pretty high. It's not because the SNP are doing a bad job, it's because Labour are so far behind that minor 'victories' like this are meaningless.
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I reckon it was a combination of a Brown Bounce and the attack on Fife Council which swung it back Labour's way. The Brown Bounce has a limited shelf life. The HBOS takeover, if forced through, will cost tens of thousands of jobs. The general election will be a very different contest.
Congratulations to the new MP Lindsay Roy and I hope he takes the the new political life well, and provides a strong voice for the people of Glenrothes and central Fife.
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Doh, St Andrews and Cupar should of course be in Greater Dundee, not Greater Fife!
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#50 Skip_NC
Granted that Roy's speech was a bit petty, I doubt he's going to bother improving his oratory.
He'll now resign his HT post and draw his pension - c. 25-30,000 GBP, and have his MPs salary.
As I've said before, being an MP from Scotland at Westminster is the cushiest job in the world.
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There are a lot of bones to pick out of this one for all the parties. My specific concern is regarding the SNP.
I think our confidence was built around the knowledge that we had significantly increased our vote. What we underestimated was Labour's ability to hold up their vote.
We must be careful not to be put on the back foot over this and fall for the media-driven 'Brown Bounce' nonsense. Labour had to throw everything at this seat and the SNP still halfed their majority. A slashed majority is not a bounce - it's more of a puncture.
Of massive concern to the whole political process is Labour's continual insistance that Fife Council had cut education budgets. This is simply not true and the facts and figures are there for all to see. Lindsay Roy repeated this 'untruth' in his victory speech despite being a head teacher ! This goes beyond negativity. Where was the media scrutiny Brian ?
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What a glorious night!
Take Alex Salmond, your days of bluffing and spin are over.
The fightback begins!
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#61 miked10270 wrote:
"I suspect that the greatly reduced Conservative & Lib-Dem vote is due to these parties' supporters "lending" their vote to Labour as an anti-SNP vote."
I think that the situation may be rather more complex than that -
eg LDs moving to SNP, while Tories either vote Labour (to support a Unionist Party) or SNP (to vote against Labour).
The critical area is still likely to be the significant group of voters who float between Labour and SNP (and much to the chagrin of party activists are not going to commit to either).
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#70
Oldnat and co, It was a hard fought contest,
well almost, I hope you can agree that local services are a must and they have got to be protected.
We have had a few exchanges over what turned out to be a very lengthy period, I also hope we can agree that politics was the nature of our disagreement(yes)
I wish you good luck and peace and I also look forward to next debate.
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#68 makinghistory
"I think our confidence was built around the knowledge that we had significantly increased our vote. What we underestimated was Labour's ability to hold up their vote."
It would be a major mistake for the SNP to continue talking about increasing their vote (compared with 2005, when the SNP did very badly).
There was a large shift from Labour to the SNP in 2007, and some of that has clearly returned in this election.
What is needed, is a detailed survey of which sections of the population changed votes 2005 - 2007 - 2008, in order to understand who the "floaters are".
I previously suggested that the September and October YouGov polls suggested that younger women were the group to have moved back to Labour. It may well be that this group were also most susceptible to the charge that the SNP Council were uncaring of the elderly.
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#71 derekbarker
A generous post from you, so thanks for that.
As I hope I've made clear, my interest is in wider principles - not in which group of politicians are in power (I don't trust any of them).
We could usefully debate, not only the centralisation v decentralisation of power, but issues such as universality of provision v means-testing.
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Couldn't sleep, so I thought I'd check out the US Onion site. Somehow, I can't see Roy's supporters being as obsessive as these guys!
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Disappointing that the SNP didn't make it, but come on lets be realistic, Labour didn't "win" the seat, they held on to it with a massively reduced majority.
What I find interesting is the way in which the Tory and Liberal vote was consigned to oblivion, in favour of the SNP irrespective of how it actually happened and this really does bear out a point I and others have made in the past; the Labour Party's "visceral hatred" of the SNP which we see expressed here and in the wider world outside has very little to do with the defence of the glorious union, but rather their anger and perhaps frustration as well at the rise of an alternative to voting Labour which doesn't involve turning to the Tories.
Just how big would the Labour majority have been if there was no SNP?
Despite their thrashing, and downright irrelevance in this particular election, I suggest that the Liberals might draw some comfort from this - in England at least. For if the SNP can show it is a credible non-Tory alternative to Labour in Scotland, can they do the same in England?
Can they come up with an idea, an distinctive idealogy which offers hope and optimism - rather than entering into a suicide pact with another party - can they find a leader?
It would be nice to think so but somehow I suspect that pigs have a better chance of flying.
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General Election?
The thought of David Cameron and his public school chums some how appeals to middle England, for reasons known only unto themselves, to be fair, the alternatives are few.
With the Tories and the Liberals losing their shirts in Glenrothes it seemed fitting that the spokes person for each party could only bang on about the SNP's failure to take this seat. A 13% nat increase in the vote is not failure, losing your deposit is.
Will Gordon Brown now have the courage to call an early election, I strongly suspect David Cameron and his Bullingdon Club chums will capture England and Alex Salmond and the Nationalists will increase their share in Scotland.
The thought of a Tory toff in power at Westminster can only help the Nationalist cause. A Labour victory, holding a safe seat with a greatlly reduced majority seems rather insignificant in real terms.
For me the moment of the by election was late last night a Tory voter stating that he had voted Labour, he thought Gordon Brown was ''awful'' but voted Labour as he did not want Scotland to be independent. Political bankruptcy ?
Over to you, Gordon.
Wansanshoo.
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I congratulate the Labour candidate for a well fought campaign. The best man won. I wish him all the best.
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Well, well ,well - did anyone see this coming?
I reckoned Labour would win by a slim majority - but nearly 7,000?
I see the spinning has begun already - but the fact is Labour held this seat and it seems, held it comfortably.
Their share of the vote increased for heaven's sake.
Considering all the bluster and in hindsight what we should call hubris from the nationalists before hand this can really only be seen as a blow for the SNP.
And yes, their vote is up 13% - true, but it is a significant drop since 2007.
But what really worries me is comments like StroszekBassist's.
It seems unless people vote SNP they are fools and sheep, well, I'm sorry but this is democracy in action and just because people don't see it your way doesn't mean they are wrong.
It will be interesting to see how this result plays out.
I'm sure someone will now commission a poll on support for independence and so forth.
I think the result shows that there are a lot of people believe Gordon is the man to steer the UK through difficult times - despite bizarre allegations from the SNP that Labour fought this on local issues (didn't realise that was a crime). While I don't agree that he is the best man for the job, Mr Brown must be feeling quite buoyant this morning, who knows he might even smile.
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All's well that ends well then, SNP enthusiasm trimmed, Labour recovers, Lib dems and Tories pushed to the side lines. I would not want Alex to get too big for his boots.
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I wonder if Barack Obama has sent his commiserations to Alex Salmond yet?
SNP supporters have a tendency to give a positive pro SNP/independence spin to any news, good or bad. However, this time they really have their work cut out. Their honeymoon period is well and truly over.
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I think the real congratulations has to go to the media.
Never have I seen such an impartial bunch , from the BBC to STV and the Herald , Scotsman et al.
Well done !
And may I welcome you all to 1984 for real!
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I despair. This country deserves all it gets. We have had Labour in charge from Westminster in Scotland for fifty years and what a great job they've done.
You never stop hearing people whining about how "wonderful" Labour have been. They then go out to the polling booths and vote them back in again and again. They deserve all they get.
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I know it was late when you wrote this,but could you edit and spellcheck please?[or get a subeditor in to do it] I make similar mistakes of course when I write,but I am not working for one of the worlds most prestigious English language news services!
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This is the best Labour by-election result since 1978 when Donald Dewar helped to turn the tide of nationalism. So much for Alex Salmond's hype this morning. The voters have spoken. Well done Lindsay Roy!
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Biased media responsible for the result?
Oh come on!
Don't tell me that all the non-SNP voters were influenced by this. The SNP are quite capable of getting the right stories in the media at the right time.
Nor was the majority "massively slashed". 7,000 odd is still fairly substantial.
Yes, the vote for the SNP was high, but to claim that the Labour campaign was all negative is a bit ironic.
SNP vote stayed at home? This is the same argument that every party uses when they lose. A turnout of 52% is very good for a bye-election.
I still want Labour out of Westminister, especially with our idiotic Home Secretary waffling on about queues of people desperate to sign up for ID cards.
But the main highlight for me was the Lib Dem candidate getting slaughtered. That will be most worrying for them, at least in Scotland.
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Could not agree more. This was a media won election combined with Labour lies.
Even down to Brians "stupid wee stump" - obviously finding it hard to contain your professionalism.
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#74 oldnat: :oD another Onion classic here!
#78 Blackivar: Well, well ,well - did anyone see this coming?
Nope! If Labour did then they managed expectations beautifully...the hand of Mandy/Campbell perhaps? Be afraid...!
#80 Johndoubleu: I wonder if Barack Obama has sent his commiserations to Alex Salmond yet? He's probably too busy preparing for Homecoming ;o)
End of the honeymoon? Quite possibly, and no bad thing for our democracy. The run in to the next GE is going to be interesting, that's for sure.
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#83 I think you will find Brian was composing his blogs from his mobile phone as he was on Newsnight most of the time.so id guess these were why there is errors ... but there is no excuse for those braces ;o)}
Fair enough that the SNP lost this one but i was amazed at what depths Labour went to secure a win .... Labour sponsored 'newspaper' through the doors about SNP counciils charging the elderly for care. Now whilst it may be the case that they have done this ... i doubt it is as bad as Labour has made out.... they probably took the most extreme cases. But as Peter Grant said, other councils will probably go the same way .... well id like to see how a Labour council cuts back money now. Its probably a win for the elderly if nothing else.
Lindsay Roy showed himself to be just another Labour stooge ... his first thing he said was to attack the SNP ... this was all just spin ... ill bet he gets booted out at the general election when people realize he will only do what he is told by his leaders. Saying that money to schools being cut was wrong since the school that he ran got more money this year !!!!
Well we've maybe lost the battle but the war continues
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Apologies for the "spam" - I kept getting html error messages (can't put a link on the first line of a post apparently) but it looks like all the attempts made it through after all. Unless the mods can remove the duplicates...?
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I must say it was a very politically correct by election ..... somebody in a wheelchair ... a blind person ..... didnt see anybody with ginger hair though ;O)}
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And you thought Salmond was desperate for some of that magic dust...
Obama's a Hammer!
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What a pathetic and depressingly negative campaign. Yet another oppportunity lost for inspirational debate , though I strongly suspect some of the candidates were spectacularly lacking in the charisma and nous required for engaging banter =(
The Labour and SNP candidates had all the personality of a bread van, and their lack of warmth was matched only by their tediously ridiculous focus upon single issue campaigning, namely home care costs. Bit of a no-brainer for the Labour Party, even though most of their argument was complete rubbish. The SNP response to that? Erm.... Duh! Their man almost deserved to lose for being so forgettably ineffective.
That said fear of home care costs was voiced by so many in the supposedly non partisan media coverage, and subsequently acted upon without due consideration of fact by voters, is testament to the gullibility of some Scots. Shame on us all for our lack of awareness in this 21st century! More of the same appears to be the default choice of so many of us, and I am singularly depressed by this prospect.
I suspect those who fit the "more seasoned" age demographic have a lot to answer for in this respect. Voice your horror though you may, the assertion of many that "I've voted for (a party) and always will" isn't really good enough these days. It is a thoughtless monument to political illteracy. It's a lazy and inconsiderate commentary, deserving of the profoundest contemp. Times change and so do politicians. Voting intentions and political knowledge should remain fluid to change with changing times. Stagnancy such as that crafted by those time-served voting automatons in Fife is a recipe for future apathy.
Their freedom of choice is ever to be respected, but there's such a frustrating lnumber of unthinking voters who seem willing to subject the rest of us to management by political mediocrity. I'd argue that the right to vote brings with it the right of responsibility, and that is something too often cast aside in political debate.
#60 ... "Oh and thanks to the voters of Glenrothes for believing everything they read and hear in the media. Noam Chomsky would be proud of you."
... I couldn't have put it better myself. One for the students to mull over today.
Hope your day goes well, whomever you voted for. =)
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I'm not worried about the Lib Dem result. I suspect that what's happened is some previously Lib Dem voters have gone to Labour to stop the SNP; others have gone to the SNP to stop Labour; and some will simply have stayed at home knowing that the Lib Dem candidate was unlikely to win (you'd have to be really dedicated to go out in the weather we had in Fife yesterday!)
Unlike Dunfermline and NE Fife, the Lib Dems have never had a presence here - only one councillor in the last 20 years or so has come from the area (Markinch) and he had a local, personal vote which kept him in. Saying the Lib Dems are on the point of collapse on the back of this by-election result is like saying that Labour would never win the General Election because the Lib Dems won a by-election in Cornwall.
It's the SNP who should really be more worried about this result. If they can't take this kind of seat from Labour then they're not going to make the progress they need to at the General Election - remember, in 2005 the Lib Dems had more second places across Scotland than the SNP did!
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I'm not particularity concerned that Labour won this seat but what is particularly gratifying about this result is that it has not only wrong-footed the SNP but also most political commentators and pundits in Scotland (Brian excepted). One of our major papers was confidently predicting (telling us) of a 2000 plus spectacular win for the SNP only 2 days ago. How did this myth arise? Are these people as incompetent as bankers? Or are the people of Fife more intelligent then they are?
Well to the contest and its aftermath: here we have the true colours of the SNP coming out arrogant in victory arrogant in defeat. Clearly this is a party that does not recognise an opportunity when it is offered to them. Now we have a chance to abandon the childish level of politics that has been characteristic of the Scottish political scene for the last 18 months and start to do some grown-up things. Will the SNP rise to this challenge ? I doubt it. I don't see any prospect of Salmond changing his spots. The early signs are that he is getting even worse. Humility is not a word in his lexicon. The up-side of all this is that the Scottish people are beginning to see thorough his empty rhetoric and hopefully now his days are numbered.
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Congratulations to labour on their win. Had a look at the have your say section from the link on the BBC article regarding the labour win, fairly mixed response on there to the result.
Using the figures given in that BBC report for the 2005 Westminster General Election and the 2008 Glenrothes by-election:
Voters on Electoral Roll: 69,155
Total Voter Turn out
2008: 36,219 (52.3%) 2005: 38,796 (56.1%)
Labour
2008:19,946 (56.19%) 2005: 19,395(52.62%) - up by 3.57%
SNP
2008:13,209 (37.21%) 2005: 8,731 (23.69%) - up by 13.52%
Conservatives
2008:1,381 (3.89%) 2005: 2,651 (7.19%) - down by 3.3%
Liberal Democrats
2008:947 (2.67%) 2005: 4,728 (12.38%) - down by 10.16%
Although as the SNP % share of the vote is down compared with the Scottish parliament election results in 2007, as oldnat has posted in #55, I think it is perhaps more relevant to compare Westminster results.
My reasoning for this is that there is still a perception of voting SNP in a Westminster election is a wasted vote i.e "what's the point in sending an SNP MP to Westminster, as they won't be able to influence anything"; as opposed to sending an MP from one of the main Westminster parties, which usually means Labour. This arguement had been put forward by one of the unionist posters on here yesterday. I know I have done this myself in the past.
As has been discussed previously, it's at Westminster where constitutional change will be decided and influenced. I feel that until the SNP make this more clear to the electorate that there vote will always be lower in Westminster elections compared to Scottish parliament elections.
If constitutional change is indeed what the people of Scotland desire it has to be emphasised by the SNP that voters must also vote SNP in Westminster elections in order to present this view point, not just Scottish parliament elections.
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Wow. Not even close.
A catastrophe for the SNP. And, as time will prove, a catastrophe (in progress anyway) for the entire UK.
Now I know how Scotland football fans feel after a match.
Gutted.
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darwinsmonkey@96,
Like you I am not that concerned a Labour victory, but you are spot on with your comments about the nationalist supprters.
Best Wishes,
William1957
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I think that Labour are always going to do better in Westminster elections. Why? No matter how talented each individual may be, the SNP as a party are never going to be as influential at Westminster as Labour are. So a Labour MP will be able to have more of an influence over government policy (and hence help the constituency more) than an SNP MP.
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#54, #56 forfar-loon
Sorry about that, but for the last 24 hours my posts didn't seem to go through the mods at all. I doubt it will last and in the meantime I don't think it's slowing down anyone else.
Even the Grauniad aren't claiming a Brown bounce but putting it down to local issues. That seems to be at least partially true. Whether true or not, the cuts and charges claims seem to have been particularly damaging - an object lesson for anyone in Government, especially if the media are "offside".
The LibDem collapse particularly worries me, and seems to show that either they're being pubished for their role in the coalition which gave Labour power in Holyrood for 8 years or, more likely, that their putting constitutional issues on the back burner has been a big mistake and that poor Holyrood performances have compounded it. They possibly have time to recover before the 2011 SP election, but almost certainly not before the general election.
And I'm someone who always believes in voting tactically in plurality elections, for the leastworst choice between whoever you believe are the two most likely to win.
#72 oldnat
You raised this before and I think you have a very good point. The disabled protest in the Radio Scotland afternoon debate may have been critical in convincing that group that the Labour "cuts" claims had substance.
#75 Caledonian54
I certainly hope you're right, at least re England, though I think that Clegg has also neglected constitutional issues and may come to regret it.
#76 Wansanshoo
So long as voting for Westmidden is purely on a plurality basis, it would be stupid of the electorate not to vote tactically. In an "ideal" world, if such a thing is possible under such an unfair system, only the top two would get any votes at all. That said, there is no doubt that Labour would have won this seat even with majority voting having acheived the magic 50%+.
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#78
"It seems unless people vote SNP they are fools and sheep, well, I'm sorry but this is democracy in action and just because people don't see it your way doesn't mean they are wrong."
You're right, this IS democracy in action. Our special brand of democracy, that is. While I'm not suggesting that anyone who dares vote against the SNP is an idiot, the fact remains that the outcome of this election was always going to be determined entirely by the media's slant on it. If this vote had occurred when the media were still gunning for Brown, the SNP would have won. The US election shows what usually happens to an incumbent government in the wake of an economic disaster - they get booted out.
But for some bizarre reason, the media has chosen to start touting Gordon Brown as "Superman", and the public have bought it. The media has put weight behind the Labour line that Scotland would have gone the same way as Iceland if we'd been independent, and the Glenrothes electorate have decided to accept this without asking why it happened under this fantastic Union that apparently protects our interests better than our own Government would.
Never mind, I wouldn't even call this a set back on the path to independence. We'll see what happens in the general election.
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#96 darwinsmonkey and #99 william1957:
Not sure I agree with your charge of arrogance in defeat, at least on this blog. A good number of us who hoped for an SNP win have been pretty magnanimous I think.
Where I do agree with #96 is on the childish level of politics front. With devolution we have a PR system that inherently relies on cooperation or consensus to be effective. But the mindset is all too often still stuck in the adversarial, two-swords-length-distant, Westminster style of yah-boo politics. Until our politicians change this (or possibly until our media allow them to!) we'll be stuck with playground insults and petty squabbling. It might take a few more years but they'll get there (I hope!).
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#96 and #99 You can say what you want about the SNP but they didnt have anybody aboard a russian billionaires yacht so whilst the SNP are still learning how to be in government they are not under suspicion or mired in sleaze. As forfar_loon says the next general election will be interesting. How much more dirt is gonna come out about Labour/Tories ???
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The anti-SNP media coverage last night was nothing short of disgusting. Menzies Campbell, a representative of a nothing party given considerable time to tell Scots they're too wee, too poor and too stupid to run their affairs without people like him smugly ensconced in their chaise longue at Westminster. Henry Mcleish gloating like only a corrupt ineffectual joke that he is could do. If ever a man represented treachery and careerism in perfect synthesis it is Jim Murphy. And all the other utterly reprehensible non-entities including Sillars rolled out to pour ignorance after ignorance about a country they're too stupid and deluded to protect or defend at all. Ignorant of country and people entirely. Ignorant even as to just how traitorous they are. And but for the fact I know independence will happen I would call myself ashamed to be Scottish when looking at all those who purported to represent her last night save naturally for those supporting independence. But independence will come and when the proceedings from last night are pulled from the archives and dusted off people will see just how absurd a position this country and its people were rendered in by media, politicians and conned electorate alike.
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#103 forfar-loon id bear in mind that altho there does seem to be a lot of petty sqaubbling at least the Tories and now the Lib Dems are starting to work with the SNP in some matters to achieve workable policys. It seems compromise is a bad word for Labour.
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#105 .... Re Jim Murphy ... i thought Nicola Sturgeon did very well not to start a fist fight with him lol ... but she kept her calm . Maybe thats why he had to leave.... perhaps she was starting to turn a shade of green !
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Seems to me the danger isn't the West Lothian question but a return to the scenario of Thatcher's 80's, namely, a virtually Tory free Scotland being governed by English Tory MP's.
The big difference this time being that the SNP are now more of a force in Scottish politics and of course we now have our own parliament.
It will make for an interesting power struggle between Holyrood and London.
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#106 and #107 rabbiehippo: Yep, the Tories have an delicate game to play...might be in their best interests to go easy on the SNP until the GE, hoping to see Labour lose a few Scottish MPs. Then again they're pretty firmly unionist so won't want to see the SNP do too well. They'll want to sup with a long spoon I imagine. Interesting times ahead, as I say!
Poor Nicola made the best of a bad job, I didn't envy her! You could see the colour drain from her as she put the cork back in the champagne around 11:30pm last night! Not what she turned up at the studio expecting I'll wager.
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Re. Jim Murphy: he probably had to leave to do something of 'urgency' for his Westminster pay-masters...
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Nicola Sturgeon is a heroine of Scotland and will never be forgotten unlike the whole raft of Unionist lackeys in evidence last night.
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#109 Champagne .... nae Buckfast lol ?
Im sure the SNP will now look at what went wrong here and learn from it. It looks like they had a few well organised groups campaigning against the council rather than the party which didnt bare well. From what i saw they had disabled and old people with their own messages which probably got some sympathy votes. I must say i was a bit horrified at the 'paper ' shown on Newsnight that Labour had been putting out .... i smell the hand of mandy at work ..... twice out of office for some scandal .... another dodgy moment and hes still there ... is this man untouchable ??
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#95 Keith_Legg_Fife
An excellent point re the weather and a fair one re tactical voting of LibDems. It does surprise me, though, that anyone who would think of voting LibDem in a fair electoral system would not have some sympathy with their federalist agenda. For anyone holding that view to switch to the most staunchly unionist party strikes me as unlikely.
As you say, we must hope that the LibDem vote holds up in the general election wherever they're incumbent or in the 15 seats where they were in 2nd place to NuLab in 2005. Funnily enough, they weren't in 2nd place to the SNP or the Tories anywhere in Scotland and the SNP weren't 2nd behind the LibDems anywhere, so if the two parties could agree on forwarding the constitutional agenda during the next UK parliament, they would be ideally placed for an electoral alliance.
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Bother! Looks like my gold card just expired!
Off out anyway so will look in tonight on the new thread.
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Speaking to friends who had previously supported SNP, it is good to know that the disgusting buy-in by Trump and those only interested in money is what has changed their voting.
They want an independent Scotland but not one run by people who will override our environmental protection regulations to sell an SSSI. There are young people from Scotland working to try and persuade countries not to cut down rain forests for food production. How can they do that when their own country is prepared to sell its own important environment for a golf club and mass housing? Salmond brought shame to the young of Scotland who know that economics alone is not the answer.
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Forfar_Loon@103,
Might debate the first point on arrogance, but share your views on the "yah-boo" style of politics. I voted "Yes/Yes" in 1997 hoping that consensual politics would make a difference in Scotland. Eleven years later, I see them as two wasted votes.
Look at what happened in the USA on Tuesday, the victor was magnanamous, and the loser gracious. Would that we could have men and women of such stature here. Brown, Cameron, Salmond and co are not fit to lace Obama or McCain's shoes.
Sadly,
William1957
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I have to admit not the result in Glenrothes that I hoped for, but not the end of
the world as some would like us to think. Congratulations to Labour, I hope
the people of Glenrothes get good service from their MP in Westminster and that
he is not just their to make up the numbers as so many of his colleagues are.
Who could believe that in a few short weeks Gordon Brown has gone from being
not just a lame duck but a dead one, to being the financial hero of the planet, the darling of the Labour party and the saviour of the union.
Even Harry Houdini would be proud of him and his great escape, but like Houdini,
Gordon's act depends upon trickery, what we the audience see is just an illusion. I wonder how impressed we will be when we find out how he did it.
Smoke and mirrors Gordon......smoke and mirrors.
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#105,
I feel your pain.....really I do.
I was considering referring your post to the mods, but on reflection I think it better that your abusive rant stays on record so that the world can see this dark underbelly of Nationalist sentiment.
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The dark belly of Scottish nationalism? What nonsense. No doubt from someone who supports the 'nice' British nationalism we see in Iraq, that we see in the constant Europhobia expressed towards the EU by Unionists and indeed the Unionist treatment of Scotland reflected in its reflective destruction these past thirty or more years and the lies about its oil wealth etc etc etc.
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Wahey!
So now we're led to believe that, after a year and half of the ham-fisted and dithering Brown government, and a string of Labour defeats, that his party's holding of the Glenrothes seat turns everything around - relaunching Brown's leadership credibilities and trumpeting the summary end of the SNP government's so-called honeymoon period???
Far from the SNP's invigorating performance in government, and deft handling of crises largely brought about by Westminster-influenced events, Brown can lay claim to no honeymoon whatsoever, having stepped straight into the mire from the moment he took office, and barely put a foot right since.
What this result actually represents is a victory for the politics of fear and dependency, for characteristic and relentlessly negative Labour campaigning, in which they focussed their venom entirely on the cynical misrepresentation of a local issue - a campaign reliant on helpers bussed up from England, and in which high-profile Labour figures were show-cased pressing the flesh with only hand-picked party supporters - all in the name of sending another bland yes-man down to retirement in the palace of Westminster.
The partisan unionist comments in the wake of this result speak volumes - as does the bare-faced spin of the two main unionist parties who sunk without trace and miserably lost their deposits.
If this was democracy in action - and it surely was - then it is lamentably ironic that the electorate had to resort to supporting the old party of fear and failure in order to send a message to the party of positive vision and aspiration.
It is no less ironic that, were it not for the fact that only one distinct party embodies such vision and commitment to a successful and self-confident Scotland, the electorate need not face such a stark choice between aspiration and accountability.
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The SNP cannot win every seat in the country but they have done a good job in slashing the Labour majority. That is still a victory of sorts. One must ask why the "Brown Bounce" could not produce an enhanced majority? At the supposed height of his popularity and effectiveness (if you could call it that), Brown has suffered a collapse of Labour support in his own backyard. That is a disaster for Labour although the media will not spin it as that.
The real message of this election is that Labour support is collapsing.
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The brown bounce is as much a media creation as this somehow being the SNP's final hour.
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The absolutely disgraceful leaflets that Labour produced to save them at Glenrothes will come back to haunt them.
I sincerely hope the SNP in Fife make a point of informing all their constituents very clearly what the real fact are. They need to do no more.
The people are very capable of drawing their own conclusions and understanding who they can trust..........
......and acting accordingly the next time they have an oportunity to vote.
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