What now for HBOS?
Is there any reason now for the Lloyds TSB take-over of HBOS to proceed?
Or is it overtaken by the recapitalisation announced overnight by the chancellor?
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond is proceeding, as he has done from the outset, on the basis that the Lloyds TSB offer is the deal on the table.
That is the understandable presumption underlying the meeting of the National Economic Forum in Edinburgh.
However, there is now an alternative scenario abroad in the body politic. Tavish Scott, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, has said explicitly that HBOS should remain an independent bank and that the merger should be called off.
Mr Scott says that "market and banking circumstances" have changed enormously since the deal was first advanced with the blessing of the prime minister and chancellor.
In particular, Mr Scott draws attention to the substantial change in share price since the offer was tabled.
He also notes that both banks, both Lloyds TSB and HBOS, are partcipants in the recapitalisation announced by the UK Government.
He suggests further that this mechanism - also applying to the Royal Bank of Scotland among others - should be the route to bring stability to the sector.
I understand Mr Scott issued his statement following consultation with Vince Cable, the party's Treasury spokesman at Westminster, who has followed the credit crunch crisis closely from the outset.
I'm 
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Unlikely but this means of course that it will be business as usual and we don't want that either.
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Question ...can anybody put a figure on the amount of PFI / PPP contracts that either the RBOS or HBOS are involved in. I know of a few but it seems to me that should the banks have failed ...these projects would have been in jeopardy as well.
Also i can see that the Unfair Bank Charges case that should be appealing soon will be thrown out because the poor bank directors will now not get the xmas bonus...... dont worry about the common people who have (admittedly partly to blame themselves) been taken for mugs by the banks. In short the banks will say they are poor and the case should it go against them will be unfair.
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Whereas Alex Salmond is absolutely right to continue to address the proposed LLoydsTSB HBOS merger for the time being I have no doubt he, more than anyone, will be happy to retire from the negotiating table and support HBOS remaining as an independent bank.
Certainly his call for a reasonable cut in interest rates has been heeded with a half percent just announced during PMs question time.
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The deal certainly doesn't need to be rushed through. But it will still end in tears unless proper regulation is in place PDQ, and we don't yet have all the details.
Re-mutualisation would have been better in giving nothing to the shareholders but is now complex beyond undoing,
Almost the entire UK part of the problem was sparked by the Tories allowing and NuLab's encouraging de-mutualisation in the first place. Unfortunately, NuLab's allowing the ex-mutuals to merge with commercial banks means the toothpaste cannot be put back into the tube.
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No need for the HBOS takeover if we the taxpayer are the major shareholders.
Also it is interesting to note the £50 billion of the government bail out of the banks will be borrowed from such places as China.
The Chinese government will now have a major stake in how the UK government runs the economy and funds public services.
The world has been turned upside down in a matter of days.
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Does anyone know what exactly is going on ? Brown and Darling don't appear to be very sure, no certainties , just more of the same rhetoric "we will do etc. ", and " people are worried etc. ". Why can't they just for once tell the truth about how much they are borrowing, how much tax will have to rise, who they are borrowing from and how they intend to pay for it. I see Ed Balls and his wife were predictably cleared of fiddling expences ; seems even with the economy in virtual meltdown announcements which might be unpopular can still be slipped out on the QT. Brown is going to campaign in Glenrothes, "if the financial crisis allows " , I'm sure Sarcozy and Merkel will give him a few days off.( they can manage our economy quite happily without him anyway ). I don't think Alaister Darling will be allowed out though while Gordon's up at Glenrothes in case he says something sensible.
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#5 minuend
Actually the world has been turned upside down for a while, since the previous huge US deficit was largely funded by Asia, and the US banking bailout will be similarily funded.
The West has been living beyond its means for a long time.
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Much may depend on the discuassions that took place Treasury/TSB/HBOS and subsequent discussions that have taken place vis-a-vis today's announcement from the Treasury.
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#5 minuend
The Chinese government will now have a major stake in how the UK government runs the economy and funds public services.
The world has been turned upside down in a matter of days.
Its only been a matter of time before this happened anyway so I don't think you should be surprised.
We are at the mercy of gamblers and that's something the Chinese, allegedly, do very well.
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In this increasing age of globalisation (and especially today's climate of overwhelming banking fragility), maybe we still need to consolidate our banks into giants to still be able to compete.
There is already little remaining 'Scottishness' about RBS and HBOS. Just because they have 1 1/2 HQ's here, these are nothing more than the bosses' occasional base and the centralised admin centre. Both the overall owners (the investment/insurance/pension institutions) and the vast majority of the operations divisions are based outside Scotland. RBS, for example, has twice as many staff in the City alone than in Edinburgh. The company doesn't even refer to itself as 'Royal Bank of Scotland' anymore, just 'RBS'!
Any major bank will always have the major money-making operations in the world financial centres, so while somehow keeping the Edinburgh staff employed, continue with this merger and increase the long-term security of the companies and to hell with Salmond's short-term political gain.
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A lot of talk about HBOS and RBS but is the Clydesdale Bank able to avail itself of this Government support/backing? I don't see it named on the list of banks signed up.
If not, should I be worried about this? - my salary gets paid into the Clydesdale every month and I have a savings account with them. If they went under, would I have to claim back from the Australian version of the FSA depositor insurance scheme?
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I begin to wonder why it is only the two SCOTTISH banks and who have their head offices in Edinburgh that are feeling the cold wind of speculators forcing their share prices down to make them easy targets for take-overs.
Does one think that maybe the Westminster Government has a hand in this so as to prevent Edinburgh continuing as a financial centre should the SNP gain independance???????
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#6 kaybraes
LOL - excellent points
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12. And there goes the 'Anti-nationalist Conspiracy' alarm again!
LOL
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#14 are you sure it isn't the playtime over bell calling you back to class?
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#14 Reluctant-Expat
I believe most posters wish you would post constructively or not at all.
However, your arch-'onionist' bile is the best advert for independence in the land! Just keep on posting!
I hope sincerely hope you consider myself the best advert for unionism in the land as I believe the more we back such nonsense the more it will eventually be proven wrong.
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Am I wrong in thinking that base of HQs is where tax is paid? Is this not the point which allows the highlighting of the fact that the reason London is not registered as being so highly subsidised is because almost all businesses of the UK have their HQs there? Please, correct me if I am wrong - I am no expert on tax law.
Although if I am correct, it would be really rather good if the HQs were to stay here in Scotland.
#10 - I don't agree with many of your points, but I see the direction in which you are heading. I would hope, however, that you are not proferring the idea that because the Royal Bank of Scotland is known by it's acronym instead of having it's full name stated every time it is referred to, that that somehow shows it is losing it's Scottishness? Perhaps the World Wide Web has lost it's global character, as it is more commonly known by the three letters WWW (although it should be noted as, I believe, the only acronym containing more syllables than the full title - 6 as opposed to 3, dependent upon accent)
The thought comes that if a 'Nat' had posted such at thing, your #14 would have been brought out even earlier. But perhaps that thought is unworthy - perhaps RBS has officially changed it's name, and I have just missed that?
Can I finally point out that I am of the opinion, rightly or wrongly, that it doesn't matter if a company is Scottish or not - the important point is whether the HQ is in Scotland or not. If EDF want to move to Edinburgh, I am sure they would be welcomed with open arms for all the revenue they bring with them!
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If the HBOS / TSB mergern goes ahead I will be amazed. It did not need to happen and if we all bear in mind that it was announced on the eve of a prime minister fighting for his job had to face a labour party conference.
The man did not give a monkeys about the fallout , job losses or anything else, yet the lily livered opposition, including the backside licker Salmond said nothing about it.
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#14 Reluctant-Expat
So perhaps you'd explain why "Duff" Gordon and Capt. Darling are wasting their time over an issue which need not be addressed immediately when they're supposedly so busy with the world crisis that neither may have time to pop in and see their chums at Glenrothes, much though both would dearly love to.
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#18 Billy52
Good point in your first para, newbie, although I don't quite follow what you think the FM should have done.
More to the point, you obviously don't seem to be either a NuLab or an SNP supporter, so what would your advice be to the good people of Glenrothes?
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I can't see how Gordon Brown would support a loss to Scotland if it wasn't essential, with a by-election looming.
This whole mess is flushing out financial manipulations that most people never dreamt about. RBS had its credit rating downgraded by an American agency early this week, I don't think Gordon Brown arranged that either.
Can't say I'm one of his supporters but don't think the conspiracy theories hold much water. These banks seem to be weaker than they ought to be at this time and will probably be taking the lions share of the bail-out so investors know their shares will be worth less for some time.
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17. I remember reading one nat claim how he had found "proof of the Treasury denying Scotland its due taxes".
Apparently, SG accounts had stated total Corporation Tax due to Scotland was #5bn, yet RBS's full CT tax bill was #5bn on its own.
"Do the Treasury actually expect us to believe not one other Scottish company paid any CT?!", he proudly declared!
Can any of our young nats tell us all where he went wrong?
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19. Y'know, every time you post terms such as "Westmidden", "Duff Gordon", "Capt Darling", "NuLab" and "onionist", it does get funnier and funnier!
And, bizarrely, it doesn't make you look immature, embittered or ridiculous in any way. At all.
Quite uncanny.
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#17, I think you will find that Electricite de France is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republique Francais, and however much fraternité the French may feel towards their partners in the Auld Alliance, its headquarters will remain in la belle France.
There are some advantages to having nationalised industries.
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I'm slightly surprised that nobody yet seems to have linked to this website's First minister welcomes bank plan.
It strikes me that both the FM and Scott are being as sensible as they could resonably be expected to be in the circumstances and it's definitely good news that the LibDems agree that there's no hurry to go ahead with the merger.
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#23 Reluctant-Expat
Glad it makes someone smile. It would be more relevant to share your wisdom on the topic or to points made (such as my query in #19) than to snipe at others.
Your own bullying of people who disagree with you is seldom pleasant reading.
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#23 my goodness expat you can recognise those traits in others but not in yourself.
Quite uncanny
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26. If there was any chance or hint of a mature, informed and objective debate, then I would happily contribute positively.
However, as the vast majority of comments on here are clearly from another dimension, one bearing no semblance whatsoever to this one, I shall continue to use this board as a venue of amusement to be used in times of tedium.
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#17, Eoin_og
It is indeed the case that the location of a company's Registered Office is of significance, notwithstanding the location of its Head Office (although the two are often co-located).
This is why it is important to note that HBOS plc and Lloyds TSB Group PLC are BOTH SCOTTISH COMPANIES!
HBOS plc (Reg No SC218813)
Lloyds TSB Group PLC (Reg No SC095000)
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27. Ah, the classic "No, you are!" retort.
Always original.
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29. Indeed it is.
That document sitting in Companies House files with a Scottish address at the bottom is far more important than hosting the profit-generating (and therefore benefiting from the subsequent taxes) operational side of the company.
That RBS only paid a few hundred million on its Scottish-based operations compared to the billions from its City-based operations is solid evidence of this.
Nationalism will always win over logic. And you can go to the bank on that.
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I would really like to know how banks which were making money hand over fist last year and crowing about their gains ,can find themselves skint this year.
I would also like to know who is making money out of this mess right now, because I'd bet my shirt on someone somewhere making loadsa money.
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I see the ranting troll has returned from under the bridge.
The shareholders in HBOS will decide if this takeover goes ahead but they are going to be in a difficult position the way the markets are unfolding.
The latest subsidy given to the banking sector is going to cost the UK taxpayer a figure of over £400 billion, a third of GDP, with no overall change to the banking practice. IF this cash boost works there are no restrictions on the same thing happening at a later date. From what I have heard on the radio today the UK national debt is heading towards the debt incurred from the last World War. Must see if I can find those the ration books.
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The problem with HBOS is that it's heavily exposed to the UK housing market, and house prices are nowhere near the bottom. Keeping it going may not be sensible.
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#31 Yawntastic
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@11
Clydesdale Bank is owned by an Australian Bank and since they have strong regulatory laws they aren't likely to collapse any time soon.
Oh and as a result there is no bank deposit scheme in Australia so if your bank goes under, you lose.
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I found this article a useful summary of the global regulatory system and how the current crisis might have been avoided.
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#31, Reluctant-Expat
"Nationalism will always win over logic."
Indeed, provided that we both equate 'nationalism' with 'patriotism.'
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Brownedov:
Are you feeding the Troll again? Have you not noticed the sign?
>>>>> *Don't Feed The Trolls* =O
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Thank goodness we are part of the union as if we were independent we would have no influence at all. There is no doubt that this is a global issue and being part of the UK means we are at the table and taking part and affecting decision making. Salmond's comment on how he would strain ever sinew is really meaningless when the issues are at this global level. Furthemore, as many of our companies are multi nationals or operating at a global level we need to stay in the union.
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HBOS is dead in the water and RBS is not far away. There are going to be thousamds of job losses.
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#33 cynicalHighlander
I still have my Dad's petrol coupons from Eden's Suez adventure, but I doubt they'll be much use.
Happy troll hunting and goodnight - looks like another go-slow this evening.
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If or if not the takeover of Hbos goes ahead,it looks like a good bit of business by Eric Daniels,buy HBOS get the taxpayer to pay for it shrewd or what.
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#11, #36
The ultimate ownership of a bank is irrelevant.
If, as it must be, the bank is authorised [by the UK's Financial Services Authority] as a deposit-taking institution, then the UK Compensation Scheme will protect savers.
In any event, Clydesdale Bank PLC is a British (Scottish!) company, notwithstanding its share capital being held by an overseas entity.
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#40 angusscot
"Thank goodness we are part of the union as if we were independent we would have no influence at all."
Couldn't agree more! These idiots like UKIP who want to see Scotland outwith the European Union, need their heads examined.
It will be better still when we don't have to go through an intermediary to Brussels.
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32. At 6:28pm on 08 Oct 2008, DisgustedDorothy
Try looking the ex "Lehman Brothers Bank" in 8 years the boss cleaned up 480 million dollars in bonuses not bad earnings for these leeches.
[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
40. At 7:42pm on 08 Oct 2008, angusscot
opinion or fact? If fact could you please show how you come to these assertions. No I don't believe that bigger is better rather that what is most economical is far better. Size doesn't matter its the quality that comes first.
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#40.
To be quite fair being apart of the United Kingdom has ensured that Scotland, including the other countries in the United Kingdom have been exposed because of policies set out by Westminister (loose regulation etc).
If you search the rest of the world, Asia, in particular have not been effected by the credit crunch as much as the Western world (there are losses but not as much as us).
Is it really great that Scotland HAS to be at the table and taking affecting decision making, when WE (Scotland) never had a chance to correct the mistakes Westminister set out?
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#45 oldnat
Well said. Those poor dears who seem to think that the old, antiquated, decrepit and decidedly small-scale British union is the only union that we are currently in need a little kick every now and then.
What a long time it takes for some people to see the writing on the wall. What a long time it takes for some of them even to notice the wall.
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Amidst the doom and gloom spare a thought for the poor people of Wallachia. They're bearing up, but I shudder at the prospect of an attack on the Wallachian Jurovalsar. Surely proof that they: (a) are right to preserve their place in the Czech union; (b) should be independent with full control over monetary policy. [Delete according to prejudice]
#28 Expectant-Ultra: "...I shall continue to use this board as a venue of amusement to be used in times of tedium."
Given the frequency with which you cast your pearls before us poor swine you would appear to experience an inordinate amount of tedium in your life.
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#40, #45.
It's an interesting point about whether an independent Scotland would have had the capacity to save either RBS or HBOS.
Also what a direct link to the EU would do when every country has its own problems and is doing its own thing.
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32. At 6:28pm on 08 Oct 2008, DisgustedDorothy
"I would also like to know who is making money out of this mess right now, because I'd bet my shirt on someone somewhere making loadsa money."
Here is one of the leeches Richard S. Fuld. 8 years work for 480 million dollars nice work if we can all get it!
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/lehman-brothers.html
40. At 7:42pm on 08 Oct 2008, angusscot
Opinion or fact? Size doesn't mean better or right, quality comes first.
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#47.
Scotland would have known better than anyone else in Europe? The Germans said that 2 weeks ago until Hypo Bank went.
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#50 and # 52 Pete
"Global problems are best dealt with by global action" (G Brown in Parliament today)
The whole of the OECD world has screwed up due to adherence to the neo-liberal philosophy it adopted. I agree with you that there is no reason to believe that Scotland would have been any different. However, a critical difference would have been that the housing market is significantly different north and south of the border, and it was primarily the housing market in SE England that showed the dangerous expansion that the IMF was warning about.
The global banking economy is largely still governed by the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, and the World Bank/IMF structure it created is totally outdated.
There is an immediate need for this to be revisited, and I think Scottish interests would be better represented by the power of the post-imperial EU, in the inevitable argument with "Imperial" America, rather than by a UK state which still clings to the US in order to pretend that it still is a world power.
Consequently, I believe in a reformed Confederal Europe. The UK seems simply redundant in such an organisation.
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#53 oldnat
I have similar thoughts over the long term. However size does matter in Europe until it's split into areas of equal population.
The RBS is prominent in north England and owns NatWest who are heavy in south-east England. I don't see how it would have avoided being sucked in.
Gordon Brown claims the boards of some of these companies didn't know what was going on in their deals.
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#54 Pete
"size does matter in Europe until it's split into areas of equal population".
Of course, the same argument could be made within the UK.
Your statement is only true while Europe and its member nations overlap in policy areas. A proper Confederal structure would delineate the spheres of control.
Under such a structure we would vote in 2009 for the European parties we think have the best policies for European issues, while voting at home for the Scottish party we think best deal with the remaining issues, for which we have not pooled our sovereignty.
As I've argued before, until we achieve a proper Confederal Europe, I'll settle for a Confederal UK.
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#54 Pete
Sorry, I didn't deal with your second point re RBS.
I wasn't suggesting that Scottish banks (in an independent Scotland) wouldn't have been sucked in to the crisis, simply that their core market would have been more secure, and the possibility of thinking outside the "UK box" would have been there - as with the Clydesdale, whose Australian owners were not so afflicted.
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Before proceeding to take a look at west Fife and then Glenrothes, I learned from the latest edition of the Glenrothes Gazette that the gloves have come off in the by-election. I seem to have heard that somewhere before. Can nobody on this pathetic planet think of any fresh ways of expressing things in by-elections? Are you all really perfectly content to go on reciting these gargantuanly mind-bendingly brain-wastingly predictable formulae over and over and over again in exactly the same circumstances as they have apparently always been recited and apparently always will be?
Cannot you think for yourselves, for pity's sake? Is it against the law of the land? Contrary to your religion, those of you who still have one? Will the lares and penates be offended? Will somebody in a white coat come and take you away? They tried to do that to me once, but then I am, of course, a special case. Grabbed me by the tentacles. Embarrassing.
Well, I am glad that I got that out of my system. Actually, to cut a long story short, I find that I am not yet feeling quite up to wading into all those waves of predictably pugilistic by-election waffle, not to mention piffle and tosh, whatever they may be. So I have decided to delay my departure from east Fife for a little while, not least as I rather like it here.
What a quaint little university, by the way. Has it been here long? Such a pity about the bracing breezes. I had expected the groves of academe to be less draughty. But then, if you will build a town at the extreme end of a piece of real estate sticking out into the North Sea, what do you expect? St Andrews is where people travel to from far and wide to do something known as gowf, I gather. I have read up on this. I don't see the point. Is there one? But don't mind me. As I am always saying, I am only a Pimpleton. What would I know?
By the way, did you take the advice I gave you yesterday about buying HBOS shares before they shot up today, at one point by as much as 58 per cent of their opening value? What a game, eh? Almost as exciting as scrabble. You didn't know I meant HBOS? Do I have to spell everything out for you? That is the last time I give stock-market tips. You cannot help some people.
Anyway, I am off to retire for the night before venturing forth tomorrow to see if I can find anyone who will explain to me why I or indeed anyone else should ever step on to a gowf course. This could take some time and may delay my departure for west Fife even further. But hey, the election is not until November 6th. A lot of water could flow under the bridge by then, and a lot of liquidity through the banks, one hopes.
By the way, on the actual subject of this actual thread, before I sign off, does the HBOS stitch-up not have to be approved by the shareholders before it can go ahead? Will they want it now? Would you, if you were an HBOS shareholder, as you so profitably could have been if only you had heeded my advice? Toodloothenoo.
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Courtesy of trenator
Overheard in the restaurant:
Fund Manager: "I'm quite pessimistic about the current financial system. I've been buying gold."
Risk Manager: "Gold? That's not pessimistic enough. I've been buying rice."
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There is obvioulsy no truth in rumours, but if there was rumoured to be Government "interference" in the HBOS and RBS share drop, I seem to remember a certain Conservative MP in the Kincardine and Deeside Constituency during the Maggie Thatcher Dynasty who was Finance Director of his family run company which deregistered in Scotland only to immediately re-register in England. Being a (currently) Scottish Registered Company (as HBOS and Lloyds TSB currently is) means very little.
I also seem to remember a rumour around the same time about the Scottish Development Agency (I think) purchasing a large number of shares in this MP's family's company either just before or just after he was elected as an MP. The value of the shares very soon afterwards slumped dramatically loosing the Scotish Development Agency a great deal of money.
The company whose primary industry was in the textile business (cashmere spinning, I believe) immediately diversified into medical supplies, which obviously had nothing to do with the said MP pushing for the establishment of the first (and only) private hospital in the HNS based in Stonehaven, the centre of the (then) Kincardine & Deeside Constituency.
It was all perfectly legal - of course ........
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[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]#57 Greetings_Earthlings
"St Andrews is where people travel to from far and wide to do something known as gowf, I gather. I have read up on this. I don't see the point. Is there one?"
Apparently it's a replacement for ancestor worship. A hack called "Plum" from faraway Surrey wrote an interesting treatise on the subject called [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]
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@17, Eoin_og
Sorry I'm a bit late to the party...
Having watched ER in the past, GSW (for GunShot Wound) also qualifies - 4 or 5 syllables depending on pronunciation for the acronym, only 3 for the phrase itself.
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#20
Just to clarify a bit, I felt that the panic to merge HBOS with Lloyds TSB was a panic measure by somebody who had lost control completely and was grasping at straws for his political life. I'mm surprised the FM did not latch on to that and hope he does before the Glenrothes by-election.
Lloyds TSB were also given ' preferred lender' status when Northern Rock was taken over by Brown. This meant that when mortgage deals were due for renewal tney were virtually referred to them. Did they take on the toxic debt or have they cherry picked, leaving the taxpayer with the dross?
Is the fact that Lloyds TSB seemed to be the only bank consulted to take over a reward for helping out the Northern rock?
Lloyds TSB also seem to have their snouts in the trough as far as taxpayers handouts are concerned so why was this bank considered to be financially strong enough to take over HBOS.
As far as Glenrothes is concerned, Salmond should be reminding the public that it is NOT the current global crisis that has made labour unpopular, it is the pension robbing, stealth tax creating, Scotland neglecting, asset selling, pensioner neglecting sleaze ridden party that is new labour, much of which Gordon brown is a part of.
Salmond should now come out all guns blazing. In reality he has no sway about HBOS jobs, yet, but another devastating blow to this clown of a Prime minister could mean that he can exert his influences more strongly.
Stop pandering to them and find a way to defeat them Alex we will all benefit in the long run.
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I can understand the demise of HBOS.
Its that dreadful advert they show on the commercial tv channels.
If I was LLoyds TSB I would be giving it a wide bearth in order not to associate myself with such piffle.
Most of the public, in which I include myself, have little or no understanding of what all the fuss is about and how it is going to impact on us.
Is it not just another case of the "moral panic" syndrome created by an overimaginative media core who will stoop to all levels to create and make a story come true.
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#57 Greetings_Earthlings
"St Andrews is where people travel to from far and wide to do something known as gowf, I gather. I have read up on this. I don't see the point. Is there one?"
Apparently it's a replacement for ancestor worship. A hack called "Plum" from faraway Surrey wrote an interesting treatise on the subject called The Coming of Gowf.
PS: This is a replacement for my #60 which got the link garbled and should be removed by the mods.
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I think the real question we should be asking is which bank is the Scottish Executive's cash in and the same for our councils.
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Re 53 old nat:
I am glad that some sense is prevailing ove rthe debate, Scotland on its own in the current EU would be weakened.
This lends me to agree a little with your federal idea, the UK would be less important were such a reform to become a reality.
However I still think there are many issues where UK wide planning would be required, the recent debate on Transport is a good one, Why would an English only policy want to extend a High Speed Rail Link beyond Newcastle, it would have little or no advantage to them. Such a link would be of advantage to those requiring regular business travel south.
I have said before I believe some form of change is inevitable and probably desirable, but the current SNP policy seems to be based on pure dogma, all our problems are caused by the UK.
I am frightened that the whole divorce bill has not been considered, nor has the future ongoing relationship with England, something we will need. We could be sitting here in 10 years saying why did we not look a bit more closely at this.
I would like some debate on the actual mechanics of how it would work and what it would cost. I will never vote to hand any politican, especially ALec Salmond a blank cheque.
Re 62
Billy would do well to remember that if Alex had his way HBOS would have 100bn of our pounds that we don't have pledged. Somtimes stop and think is a good idea before you speak.
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#62 Billy52
Interesting post, especially your: "Is the fact that Lloyds TSB seemed to be the only bank consulted to take over a reward for helping out the Northern rock?"
It's certainly yet another example of the non-transparency of information coming out of HM Treasury from successive UK governments, presumably including Asquith's home rulers, so it's not so much a Scotland vs the union matter as a freedom of information one.
It could still play well in Glenrothes against a union government supposedly committed to FOI but becoming progressively more opaque the longer it lasts. It certainly needs sensitive handling, though, or will risk going against the grain in these interesting "pull together during hard times" days.
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Interesting to note that Norway, insulated by its oil fund, is weathering the storm with complete comfort.
Interesting to note also that the UK, which has been reduced to the most heavily indebted state the world in the course of Labour's rule, is the worst placed economy to weather this storm yet some peope are deluded enough to think it is to Scotland's benefit to be dragged down as part of this.
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Leave the lights on, please, We're scared.
The fearties are out in full force looking for mummy's skirts to hide behind.
The unionists are cheering and encouraging every difficulty that assails the Scottish economy and the cringe is running for cover again.
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sneckedagain: "Interesting to note also that the UK, which has been reduced to the most heavily indebted state the world in the course of Labour's rule"
Really?
How did you determine this?
And what do you mean by debt?
Public debt? Personal debt?
If we go by public debt isn't Lebanon's 209% of GDP?
I don't think the UK's is anywhere near this, acutally it is or was until a couple of months ago about 42.2% or do you mean in cash terms in which case I don't believe Britain owes anywhere near Brazil's debt of $273 Trillion. (I think you'll find it's around $1 trillion)
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68. So the Norwegian government has not needed to inject billions into its own financial industry to maintain liquidity?
Or did you just read an article comparing this crisis to one in the 90s when that "oil-rich" state had to nationalise several failing banks?
I don't remember any crisis that bad in the UK in the 90s, do you?
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#66 northhighlander
"However I still think there are many issues where UK wide planning would be required"
Undoubtedly true, but this is the same situation within the island of Ireland, and in many areas of Europe with adjacent population centres. There are current EU rules covering joint planning by neighbouring countries or regions within neighbouring countries which facilitate this.
The pre-devolution UK is actually a good example of where a unitary state failed to plan for internal infrastructure.
I'm sure you'll remember the gap between the M74 and the M6 which the UK Dept of Transport refused to complete even though the former Scottish Office offered part funding from their own budget.
Post devolution, 2 governments found it much easier to create the joint funding for linking the 2 motorways.
For the sake of clarity, I'm proposing a Confederal, rather than a Federal solution.
While there is no exact definition of either term, Confederal implies an arrangement in which sovereignty lies with the nations, but they agree to pool certain aspects of their sovereignty (eg Defence) within a Confederal Government and agree to provide the pro rata funding for these services. A Federal system is more top down and gives the Federal body the right to levy taxation directly.
The taxation aspect of the Confederal model is rather like "fiscal autonomy" for Scotland.
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#66 northhighlander
A very constructive post, and I fully agree that getting the details right will be vital. That's one of the reasons why I feel that a confederal solution would be a vital intermediate stage, and may even grow on people once it comes about.
The real problem there, though, is that the LibDems are no longer pushing that approach and NuLab are seemingly totally against it - preferring to ignore it completely in England, where the existing assymmetric solution is heavily criticised, to say the least and, in my view, cannot last indefinitely. With the Tories pretty silent on the issue, if the people of Glenrothes agree with you what can they do to move the issue forward, even if they're neither NuLab nor SNP supporters?
I would have thought it's pretty obvious that if they vote NuLab nothing will change whereas if they vote SNP it will keep the "pure" unionists on their toes.
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62 and 67,
Remember that the TSB (The Trustees Savings Bank) was (allegedly) owned by its depositors until one Maggie Thatcher (commonly known as "Maggie the Snatcher" after her School Milk debacle) prised it from the hands of its depositors and sold it off. I remember the legal arguements which went on for weeks. The profits, of course, ending up in the coffers of Westminster.
It was then taken over by Lloyds.
One wonders then why the only bank which has an apparent interest in the take over of HBOS is Lloyds TSB. One would, I think, be asking the question: "Who is helping them????" Two words spring to mind "Smell" and "Rat"
Is RBS going to be the next notch on their gun???
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#72, I would certainly consider a confedral solution, thanks for the definition.
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Brownedov
Can you look at my #182 on "Peston's Picks"?
I typed in my usual explanation of not using an ampersand but it appeared in the peculiar way that it has.
Any idea why?
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&
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This whole economic meltdown will place all major corporations in the hands of a few-it's all about the transfer of wealth.
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I'd say sod HBOS for the moment, now that the latest revelation about the Icelandic banks has arisen.
What the hell is PUBLIC money doing sitting in a foreign bank?
My own council - South Lanarkshire - has 7.5 million there. Not a huge amount overall but still plenty. Dwarved a bit by the apparent situation with Aberdeen.
I think a bigger can of worms is opening by the day.
We need to find out from ALL councils where exactly their (or should I say taxpayers) money is being kept.
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It looks like the BBC techies have fixed the ampersand problem, and it can now be typed direct -
&
How about the pound? £
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It looks like the BBC techies have fixed the ampersand problem, and it can now be typed direct -
&
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S&P
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£
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If you think we've got problems
I would suggest we have little to worry about.
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Article 4
The Central Bank of Iceland shall undertake such tasks as are consistent with its role as a central bank, such as to maintain external reserves and promote an efficient and safe financial system, including payment systems domestically and with foreign countries.
http://www.sedlabanki.is/?PageID=197
Guess who was asleep at the wheel?????
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Suddenly, the world shrank. And with it the piffling idea that footering with constitutional arrangements will make a damn of difference to anyone.
Trumpeted states in meltdown: Ireland in recession, Iceland bankrupt, Belgium like headless chickens, Sweden and Denmark forced to issue bank guarantees. The list goes on.
An independent "Scottish" bank? The nearest we will ever have is a Credit Union.
Scottish politicians wiser than the rest? Only in comedy shows.
Protected by the EU? Aye, right.
Turkeys will vote for Christmas, however. Probably starting at Glenrothes.
Can we not just forget wee tartan solutions and think big? For example, I want to know who is, even now, right here in Scotland, wheeling and dealing to make millions out of our present misery.
Why have no bankers/financiers been arrested, fired, resigned or taken a walk on the railway?
I have been away for a few days, and now find the same people, flogging the same arguments, with the same degree of intelligence/stupidity, and the same idea, generally, that wee, sad Scotland is being done down by everyone.
Surely, if anything good comes of this mess it will be the final demolition of the delusional argument that Independence is the solution to anything?
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79. All part of this global capitalist system we live in nowadays, not that this is all very new. Most governments (national and local) and probably every major company has funds invested in overseas banks, companies and government bonds.
No-one, not even teenage Scottish nationalists, predicted that a poorly-conceived mortgage scheme in NE USA would have such widespread consequences.
That the speed and size of this has caught out so many of those governments, councils, banks and companies, in every country (even the non-investing Islamic banking sector has been hit hard), is testament to that.
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70. At 12:45pm on 09 Oct 2008, Blackivar
"I don't think the UK's is anywhere near this, acutally it is or was until a couple of months ago about 42.2%"
Back in March following quote
"At the end of March 2008 general government debt was £614.4 billion, equivalent to 43.2 per cent of GDP. "
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=277
That was 6 months ago and getting higher daily, some example to set by a capitalist rich nation I don't think.
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#76 oldnat
They've clearly changed the parameters in the ACS page that pressing the Post Comment button sends the "raw" text to in order to parse it. I'll find a nook or cranny to do some testing and try to figure out what's now possible.
In the meantime, as your post was made at 01:17am (BST) today, we can tell from the later posts above that at least italics and links still work the same way.
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#86 brigadier
Welcome back. Glad that your break did you good, and that you're no longer liverish & grumpy :-)
"footering with constitutional arrangements will make a damn of difference to anyone."
So you don't think altering the constitution of the EU to create a strong banking regulatory system (which would also apply to EFTA) would be a good idea then?
It might have saved all those "wee, sad" countries like Iceland and the UK making complete fools of themselves.
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I've never thought much of Gordon Brown. He spent 10 years taking the credit for deflationary pressures created by urbanising Chinese peasants willing to work for a dollar a day, whilst spending his waking hours trying to destabilise his boss.
So it is with some surprise that I thought he did quite well yesterday, he even managed an unscripted joke which is unprecedented. Whether this massive commitment of public funds (national debt) will work is now a matter of waiting, for it is clear that the system is so spooked that nothing short of a few months of nothing happening will bring lenders back into the marketplace. So we shouldn't expect instant results.
Did he leave things too late? Maybe, and he does have a charge sheet a mile long when it comes to being absent when the brown stuff (geddit?) hits the air conditioning. But in his defence, he does seem to have worked out something comprehensive and with sufficient clout to work, while at the same time honouring Labours 1983 manifesto promise to nationalise the banks...neat.
If it doesn't work then we all be facing a very straightened future for a number of years. Particularly bad news for people approaching retirement who will have little time to recover. This should therefore leave the strangely bipolar demographic of Blether with Brian, i.e. students and pensioners largely untouched.
In the meantime, it's time for cool heads and not doing anything to needlessly spook the febrile economy out there. I'm still invested in shares, property and cash in the reasonable confidence that the situation will turn round in the medium term. Until then, as a banker told me, a pair of Church's brogues will make a nourishing broth if boiled long enough!
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#84 jeepers ... even markees is nae that dear for a loaf!!!
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#90 oldnat: The EU can create what it likes, the present situation has shown, very clearly, that under pressure member states will act in their selfish national interest. Ireland and Germany, for starters, took unilateral action. France always does what it likes.
A strong future regulatory system is, of course, desirable, but would not be as effective as a number of jail sentences now.
I'm broadly pro-EU, but the differences between states in taxation, pay rates, and traditional "understandings" and "fiddles" mean, for me, that it will take generations to achieve true unity of purpose, let alone watertight legislation.
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88. No ignorance of economics there at all.
France and Germany have debt levels around the 60% mark.
Japan is nudging 100%.
USA around the 60% mark.
Italy is no longer on the scale.
How about the old favourite of including PFI and pension debt so you nats can shout about how UK debt "is closer to 100%"?
Go ahead, but you will have to ignore that countries like Germany and France are even more worse off with such debts at 260% and 160% of GDP respectively. Also the Netherlands (182%), Ireland (164%) or the Eurozone average of 243%.
Ah, but why let such teeeedious facts get in the way of yet another ill-informed nationalist rant.
Next.
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#86 interestingly put Brig. although one could say the choice is more akin to staying onboard the Titanic or jumping into the water.....but one won't.
The debate will go on in support of unionism, federalism,con-federalism or independence because it has to go on, the genie is out the bottle Brig and it ain't for going back in. What's happened in the world markets won't stifle debate and infact may make it more interesting as people seek to discuss 'other' solutions that are both realistic and acceptable to most folks. In the end (whenever that may be) we have to come up with a solution that the majority of people are comfortable with, dismissing out of hand the alternatives to what we have at the moment isn't in the least bit helpful and neither is denigrating your country or your fellow Scot.
As for why no one in the UK financial world has been lifted by the polis, ask the big boys down in London.
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#94 Aye dont forget pensions and PFI especially PFI which is off balance sheet so that GB can look souper efficient. Why is it that councill leaders can do their job for 5 to 10 years or whatever and retire on a huge pension. Even MP's/MSP's get rather large pensions for working hardly any amount of years....... must be a lot of contributions to ensure a pension of 2 million quid. It doesnt seem right to me...seems to be nobody really cares about how much money they spend in government....well until now that is.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#95 InMyKip: The debate will go on.... here! But not in the real world. Out there, people are too worried about savings, jobs, housing, food, fuel, etc., to give a toss about Independence or the alternatives. Staying aboard Titanic and re-arranging the deck chairs, or jumping overboard, will not make a jot of difference to their concerns.
One man's "denigration" (that interpretation is yours) is another man's facing up to reality.
All I was really saying is that "Scotland's interests" - whether in this crisis or generally - are the same interests as the UK, Europe and the Western World.
However, the Government - and it would be the same with any government - tends to get the blame in bad times, fairly or not, and this may well be reflected at Glenrothes.
But it would be a serious mistake to interpret an SNP victory as anything other than a rebuke to the Government. The most open-minded of observers (me!) could not expect him to have any hope of resolving anything beyond the parish pump.
Nationalism, like socialism, may be an idea whose time has passed.
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#98: Correction. "Him" (third last line) is of course Alex Salmond, who I thought |I had mentioned earlier in the post. Sorry.
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#98 brigadier
"could not expect him to have any hope of resolving anything beyond the parish pump"
I think you're being rather unfair to Gordon Brown!
btw, there's a nw thread on today's FMQs.
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#98 I agree it will continue in here ad nauseam........and in the real world people are concerned about their place in it, that's always been the way, but it would be foolish to ignore what is happening in the real world to the future of our country(s) the goverment you get is not necessarily the one you vote for, the debate maybe stifled somewhat for the moment (with the exception of Glenrothes) but once the boat stops rocking I think you'll find normal service will resume.
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#100 oldnat: Your humour just about excuses your tendency to nitpick rather than address the substantive point. You were just too late, however.
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98. Of course, nationalism is no longer an issue. That the SNP still maintains this as its principal ideology is more to do with Salmond's absolute legacy complex than anything else.
There are no mass petitions, no mass marches (150 people strung out along Princes Street is not a mass march!), no interest in the Nat Con and no sign of any rising support in the polls despite the incessant stirring of the entire nat gang.
Unfortunately, the nats on these boards (and on so many others) are under the gross misconception that the SNP's current polling is somehow related to a sudden and mass change of attitude in favour of Scottish independence from the UK. Even the sudden reverse in polling that followed the Labour Conference did not light a bulb that SNP's support may not be as solid as they think.
They persist in, and there is no other description for it, a 'delusionary state', that the SNP are here to stay and have somehow been declared as "the rightful protectors of Scotland in all perpetuity" (a nat's words, not mine). That every single party in every single democracy has eventually been voted out of office seems to have passed them by.
Much like everything else to do with politics, economics and society in general.
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#101 InMyKip: I don't think the boat will stop rocking anytime soon. The longer it rocks the more people will recognise that small, cosy, proud national units are subject to the whim of the big battalions of international markets. Scotland could begin to look like a cold, remote place, far from the concerns of the decision makers.
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#98 brigadier
'The debate will go on.... here! But not in the real world...'
Just this last weekend, two English gentlemen strangers struck up a conversation with me and without any prompting asked me about Scottish nationalism, the current constitutional arrangements, the economic pros and cons, and the implications of the current financial crisis. Their reason for asking was that they knew that such things were very much the talk of the town, but the English media left them starved of information.
Putting your fingers in your ears and singing 'La, la, la...' won't make it go away, I'm afraid.
Your mistake, I believe is believing Scotland's interests are the same as those of the UK. Sometimes, of course, maybe... But always?...
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105. Somehow, I don't think it's us that has our fingers in our ears.
I really don't.
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#104 well Brig. it's unlikely we will agree on this, time will tell the outcome.
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#105 Richard: Possibly you've moved on to the next thread, but... I've had similar experiences with English folk, in York at the weekend to be exact.
They have been fed stories that we're all rampant Nats, and are therefore a bit feart of asking stuff. But it all comes down to an illusion that we are getting benefits that they're not getting.
I take time to explain that our share of the UK cake is the same as it has always been, but the Scottish Government is slicing it differently. Specifically, it is financing populist projects by cutting elsewhere. We don't know the true cost yet, because the bills haven't dropped.
For the reasons stated, the English are more interested in Scots Nationalism than Scots themselves.
When we talked about free school meals, for example, they were appalled that some well-off, well-fed kids from good homes would get free meals, while cuts could be made in services to people who really are in need. But that's not how it's spun, of course.
It's an unfortunate by-product of more Scots news on the BBC, that the impression is growing down south that we are a prosperous, hand-out society supported by the English.
But Alex Salmond won't mind that, for his own devious reasons.
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#108 brigadier,
Apologies in replying, I was just watching a rerun of a 1986 programme about the West Highland Line. Very good it was too. It's possible to stay in a bunkhouse in Glenfinnan consisting of an old railway carriage. I can highly recommend it by the way.
Whilst I keep up with the latest threads, I also like to keep an eye on the tail end of the old ones. I prefer to read much more than I post, empty vessels and all that.
Interesting to hear that you have had similar experiences, though I suspect our respective audiences heard different responses. That's not to say that I disagree with you on everything, brigadier. I'm sure you will have already concluded that I am not the type to slavishly follow any party line. I am, if nothing else, a man of principle.
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Brian:
What is next for HBOS; Reorganizing under the new umbrella or closing down shop...and liquidating the business items...
~Dennis Junior~
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