Silencing the analysts
Oh, and, by the way, the economy shrank last quarter.
Doesn't it almost seem like an afterthought after the months of agonising over the economic crisis?
Indeed, The Guardian greeted Gordon Brown's concession that Britain was heading for recession with a cartoon depicting the PM on the doorstep of Number 10 with an exceptionally large bear, forecasting a certain degree of ursine detritus in the woods.
But this is it, just the same. This is when and how the real economy of jobs, mortgages, savings and pensions starts to suffer.
Recession is defined as two successive quarters with declining GDP. After the first quarterly fall-back in 16 years, anyone care to bet that we won't be there when the next figures are published?
In Scotland, it would appear that Alex Salmond may comfortably meet his target of matching average UK growth - but not, perhaps, in the manner he envisaged.
The question now is how long and how deep the recession will be.
Few, I suspect, have any real idea about that, given the link to volatile, indeed manic, global markets.
For myself, I am growing increasingly irritated by delphic comments from analysts who didn't forecast the downturn, didn't highlight the internal problems within the banking sector and didn't urge redress.
To quote Attlee, dealing with a pestilential party chairman, "a period of silence would be welcome".
On the subject of mortgages, it would appear that Labour has scored something approaching a palpable hit with its orchestrated onslaught against SNP ministers.
You'll recall that Labour accused the Scottish Government of "complacency" for declining to replicate a system introduced in England designed to make repossession less likely.
Mr Salmond has now said he will look at the already-reformed Scottish system to discern whether there are any gaps.
To be fair, ministers insist that was their position all along.
The English system doesn't simply translate to Scotland: different legal system. Rather, expect ministers here to focus on efforts to keep such matters out of the courts in the first place.
Expect initiatives - already in the pipeline - to enhance the availability of schemes which allow those in financial trouble to transfer mortgages to rents or to shared equity.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~07~RS~)
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Without wishing to stray into partisan territory, I cannot help wondering about the wisdom of any policy calculated to protect debtors against their creditors in such a way that it amounts to continuing to encourage people to live beyond their means and prevents banks from re-establishing themselves as going concerns operating prudent lending policies such as were associated with them in the UK in the past, when there was no question of bank failure or takeover by the state.
For the banking sector to recover it must bring to an end lending arrangements, whether involving mortgages or loans to businesses, that are not soundly based. This would appear to be the opposite of what the UK governement is demanding in seeking to protect unsuitable mortgage holders from the consequences of their own folly and in seeking to induce banks to resume lending at 2007 levels generally.
There is a contradiction here, surely. Labour politicians are trying to have their cake and to eat it for short-term electoral reasons. Consequently, until the UK general election is out of the way there cannot be any realistic prospect of a UK banking-sector recovery or of recovery in the UK property market. It all comes down to partisan politics, which is practised at the highest level especially when it is asserted that the central government is above all that and that it is only acting in "the national interest". If this dubious claim is accepted at face value, which no political claim should be, it follows that all criticism of government action is ipso facto merely "partisan tosh" and thus contrary to the national interest. The interests of the Labour Party may be served by this approach, but "the national interest" can hardly be served by it. Nor is democracy served by it or freedom of expression.
If the Labour Party believes in the market, as his excellency the Lord Mandelson claims that it still does, it should be allowing the banks to recover by operating lending policies that are commercially sound. This means, among other things, allowing those who have borrowed unwisely to take the consequences of their actions, whether they be mortgage holders or not. That is the nature of the market: personal responsibility and risk. Those who live within their means contain the risk to which one is exposed in the market, as Mr Micawber said. I shall spare you the quotation, as you are doubtless familiar with it.
Why should those who live within their means bail out those who do not? What a lot of bleating there is now from pathetic over-indulgent individuals who find themselves over-extended and unable to keep up their various payments on mortgages, car leases and other luxury big-ticket items that they have acquired on the never-never to give themselves a standard of living that they could not actually really afford. It was the bank's fault, apparently, one hears again and again. The bank, according to these bloated insolvents, virtually forced them to get into debt by repeatedly offering them loans that they could not afford. Now that they cannot pay the bill that is finally coming in they want to be let off. No such thing as a free lunch, I'm afraid. Someone has to pay somewhere along the line, which is why the UK banks are in the state of state control that they now largely find themselves to be in and why the UK is now entering a recession.
Let the banks sort themselves out, and stop weeping so much for fools who should be given the space to learn a hard lesson, without which they will sink into debt again, particularly if the banks are forced to facilitate the process. The notion of encouraging distressed mortgage holders into shared-equity schemes, nevertheless, has merit if it is operated in such a way as not to hinder the banks in the proper conduct of their business and to satisfy the electorate's natural desire to weep a little for those who make mistakes, given that demotion to a shared-equity arrangement does present the errant borrower with an opportunity to learn from a mistake without plunging his or her faimily into instant and dire penury. Someone is still going to have to pay for this safety net, however.
Central-government borrowing is reaching astronomical levels and will keep on going, higher and higher and higher. Someone has to pay. The state can borrow, but it too must pay its debts eventually. Eventually that means the taxpayer, which the Labour UK administration no doubt expects to be the taxpayer under a successor Tory government. What a delightful compensatory prospect for the Labour Party to contemplate when/if it loses the next UK general election.
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brian you wrote - On the subject of mortgages, it would appear that Labour has scored something approaching a palpable hit with its orchestrated onslaught against SNP ministers.
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surely labour have scored an own goal in that it was them and the lib-dems that brought in the morgage act and now they are saying that it is not good enough.
if the morgage act is not good enough in the present UK financial circumstances then it was not good enough for the last 7 years.
so once again we have the labour party being partly to blame for the financial / economic downturn and high interest rates complaining that their legislation does not do enough to help the population caught up in the morgage / unemployment trap.
hypocr-tits.
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What we want is less Labour propaganda being broadcast by BBC Scotland. The mortgage story in question was nothing more than a fraudulent piece of reporting.
Scots are to lose their jobs, their homes, their savings, their investments and their pensions because of Gordon Brown. There is no else to blame for this mess.
Report on that fact, and forgive us the partisan Labour politics so evident at Pacific Quay.
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Did anyone see Big Eck on Question Time last night? A masterful performance that rival party leaders could only dream of. He had the audience eating out of the palm of his hand, which is quite remarkable considering this was Peterbrough rather than Peterhead.
Anyway, the point of my somewhat sycophantic babbling is that this is a man who radiates the sort of confidence you need from a leader in times of trouble, to gain the trust of the people so they can believe that he can fix things. I firmly believe that Alex Salmond will do all that he can to help Scotland weather the economic storm and come out of it in a stronger position than we would if Scottish Labour were still in power, although not as strongly as we would if we had full fiscal autonomy.
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Good comment - tell your colleagues down south in London town to heed your words.
On your other point though, it is interesting to notice how Westminster based Scottish polititians fail to remember how different the legal system in scotland is with regard to property, when it suits them - other times they are extremely quick to point out the differences. Odd. Must be the subsidised bars
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#1 frankly_francophone
Absolutely spot on as far as it goes, but it would be stupid for the UK government not to provide some sort of a parachute package while I fully agree that the people who over-extended themselves were not bright to do so.
In the case of buy-to-let mortgages, I have no sympathy whatsover with the mortgagees but every sympathy for their tenants, and there is some sense in not selling at the bottom of the market. Controls might need to be imposed on the silly bankers who put themselves in that position to stop them cutting and running.
For (part)owner-occupiers, to evict them is likely to make things worse still for the taxpayer in the medium term in benefit and social housing cost. Perhaps in those cases the state should "nationalise" their "semi-toxic" mortgages at a suitable discount to ensure the bankers share the misery a little.
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Brian, I thought it had been reported yesterday morning in the Scottish press that Scottish Ministers " stressed that they would consider the move to see if it could be replicated in Scotland" as well as emphasising our different legal system, regarding introducing the system England has chosen to adopt to make reposessions less likely? Now you report it a day later?
Where is this orchestrated onslaught coming from, Mike Dailly, scoring somethng approaching a palpable hit?
Thought you had asked for no partisan tosh?
I agree with your take on analysts though, which equate to modern day astrologers.
"The omens look bad sire, I foresee negative growth again in the coming quarter".
You've a better chance of predicting the weather, and even then you might get it wrong.
In effect its gambling, why on earth people put so much faith into predictive models and systems is beyond me. Ultimately the outcomes are still predictions, no matter how rigoroulsy tested the models are. Suppose you have to go with the best guess, just don't bank on it as fact and use it more as a guide.
I wouldn't expect the UK to come out of recession until the financial sector gets its house in order finally, just hope they learn from the crisis so its not just a case of going back to the situation we had before.
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#2 U13282939
Too true, and hopefully a message to be banged home loud and clear in Glenrothes.
#4 StroszekBassist
Yes, I watched avidly and rather agree. I can understand the BBC having the US debate next week, as US election dates are set in concrete, but the BBC have known about the Glenrothes date for more than 3 weeks and should have switched last night's venue to Scotland, where the hardline unionists would have had a slightly rockier ride.
I also thought Jo Swinson did reasonably well for the LibDems, but was surprised at the NuLab bias of the Pink 'Un's editor, Lionel Barber. Perhaps it was drilled into him as a cub reporter with the Scotsman.
Us expats can still watch both the live program and the latest edition in RM format, but the WM links seem to have gone.
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Lifted from the last blog. Much more to the point on this one
While I have every sympathy with the assuredly many who are about to lose their homes I am not entirely comfortable with the concept of Government continually bailing out companies, organisations and individuals who are suffering as the result of foolish decisions and unwise behaviour.
We run the risk of perpetuating careless behaviour if those involved in it are completely shielded from the consequences of their own actions.
I successfully dissuaded some relatives, captured by the illusory "housing ladder" frenzy, from buying a house at a totally nonsensical price about a year ago and they are thanking me now. The property they were aiming for at ?215,000 is now not selling at ?145,000. It will probably go eventually around ?100,000, if at all, which is much nearer its real value (but still about 33% higher than a comparable property on the continent).
Property value collapse? We ain't seen nothing yet.
I would rather we shone the spotlight on the man who revelled in the sunshine and self praise as we lived in a totally false economy, encouraged by him, built on unsustainable debt and who is now behaving as if he has nothing to do with it all the current disasters.
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#4 - Big Eck is that McLeish chap who used to manage the Scotland football team. Wee Eck is the chap currently reaping the benefits of having teams of hard-working civil servants to do the real work and put words in his mouth designed to win over the populace...
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#4 ......Bassist
You might need to trade in that TV of yours because on my state of the art TV I could clearly see and hear Roy Hattersley wipe the floor with ShrEck. Particularly with regard to his huff and bluster about the Arc of Makeitupasyougoalong.
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#3 minuend
Absolutely, and your excellent #59 from the previous thread is well worth reposting here lest the message fails to get through to anyone uncommitted who night wander on to these pages.
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What happened to Alex Salmonds Council of Economic Advisors? It was jammed packed with Professors and Nobel prize winners and headed by the great Scottish banker himself George Mathewson...
You wonder just how little these supposedly great bankers and economists actually know, and it is Mr Salmond himself who keeps telling us he was also an economist, for a bank no less...
It would be interesting if you could interview Mathewson, and ask him how he and his wise council, errmm... managed to miss such a global event...
Johnny Sangster
The Meadows
Edinburgh
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A large raft of by election results in England last night show no evidence whatsoever of a "Brown Bounce" which I suspect is, through media prompting, more apparent than real.
A by election in a Scottish Labour seat is a completely different landscape,of course, but NuLab is getting a very different tratment from the Scottish press than it is getting from the press down south.
The constitutional complication up here means that an incumbent Labour Government gets a degree support from unionists of all political persuasions and all sort of " British" organisations.
I note that many posters on this blog believe that includes the BBC.
I couldn't possibly comment - but Brian Taylor's blog along with the letters page in the Herald are certainly the best debating organa available to us.
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If, as you say Brian, there are already SNP measures in the pipeline to help Scottish mortgage holders and if, as you say Brian, the Scottish system is not similar enough to England to simply copy southern guidelines and if, as you have said Brian, the existing legislation (which ministers are now looking again at) was put in place by the previous Labour Executive then in what sense exactly have Labour scored a "palpable hit" ?
It is probably as "palpable" as the campaign tactic of sneaking the PM's wife around a few hand-picked labour supporter's homes in Glenrothes and trying to stop the media from asking her any questions.
More significant than this Labour froth is David Cameron's revelation that he thinks an independent Scotland would be viable. At least he has realised that the Labour tactic of constantly finding ways to show how Scotland is uniquely inacapable of self-governance is a tactic doomed to failure.
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#13
"It would be interesting if you could interview Mathewson, and ask him how he and his wise council, errmm... managed to miss such a global event..."
You mean like nearly every other economic adviser on the planet, including our glorious and exulted leader that had a part to play in it, unlike the aforementioned in your post?
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Does anybody seriously believe that any scheme originating in Westminster will have any influence on mortgage lenders. It's their money we're talking about, not the mortgage holder's ; why should they even consider taking a loss in the present circumstances ? I imagine staying in business will be hard enough. If they don't get their cash, savers don't get interest and the self same savers are not going to finance an organisation that doesn't pay for the loan of their cash. Last week the world was screaming for reckless lenders to be guillotined, now it seems they should continue lending recklessly to people who wont pay them back. If the government was as keen to give handouts to those in trouble as they are to subsidise the lazy, the supposed too sick to work, and themselves, there wouldn't be a problem, but sadly Nu labour still regards anyone who tries to buy their own house as some kind of anti socialist, and they certainly aint getting subsidised.
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11. Assume your medication was not working or we watched different programmes. Hattersly sounded as if he was senile and lied throughout. Salmond was calm , articulate and spoke truthfully.
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#14 sneckedagain
Good post and I agree, but where do you get the Thursday election results from?
I thought I knew how to trawl the web pretty well but they're not obvious to me.
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Re 4: Alex Salmond on QT
While the anointed one did well (and got the best joke) infront of an audience that knew little about him before the show, he was a bystander to the main conflict between Sayeeda Warsi in full Robot mode and Roy Hattersley in indignant illinformed bluster > Which produced one of the most amusing QTs for quite a while.
As to Mortgage protection in soctland;
A completly different legal set up will require time to translate the new default protection measures intorduced in england, , and with our Offers Over system prices are likley to fall more sharply than england (yet remain hidden).
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#11
"You might need to trade in that TV of yours because on my state of the art TV I could clearly see and hear Roy Hattersley wipe the floor with ShrEck. Particularly with regard to his huff and bluster about the Arc of Makeitupasyougoalong."
Clearly your ears stopped working when AS made his reply then, or did you automtically right it off as him being disingenuous.
I heard AS clearly explain how other countries of similar size in Europe had coped with the crsis, some better than others, but all better than the UK.
When RH asked AS about the £100bn (according to RH 2.5 x Scotlands GDP) plan and whether he in fact said it, AS replied definitively NO, he did not say that. AS went on to point out that Norway had borrowed a significant amount (£35bn) with the same purpse in mind, which is to say why couldn't Scotland have done the same? It doesn't necessary follow that they'd have to use it, confidence would increase because it was available.
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I'm really confused.
Until I read into the subject more deeply this morning, I was under the impression that the Scottish Government was wanting the same protections for repossessions etc as was being rolled out in England.
From readign the more sensible bloggers here (SNP supporters). it appeared that Scotland was getting a raw deal etc etc and that Westminister was out to stitch up Scottish homeowners who faced repossession.
Then today I read that Nicola Sturgeon has already stated that the current laws in place in Scotland aer adequate!
Sitting as a neutral, I thought originally that, yes, we should be getting the same protection, and yes, Brown has messed up again.
But then I read Nicola's comments and thought ???? OK, they have plans in the pipeline, but when will they be implemented.
Repossession should be a last resort. But you have to balance the equation. What if a ban has lent responsibly to a lender, who then does not pay? The danger of this law is that while it is meant to protect the vulnerable, a minority will abuse it.
#14 sneckedagain
A by-election is always different. The SNP may win it only to lose it at a general election. It may be a "safe" Labour seat but whatever happens the SNP will claim a victory.
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#15 makinghistory
"At least he has realised that the Labour tactic of constantly finding ways to show how Scotland is uniquely inacapable of self-governance is a tactic doomed to failure."
Too true, and Aunty Annabel's constructive approach shows they've also started to walk the walk. Although the Thatcher legacy will probably take another decade to fade, it might well help them in Lab/Tory marginals like the seats of Murphy & Darling where I wish them well in helping rid the UK of two of "Duff" Gordon's sycophants.
But one can only assume the approach was thought likely to work by the NuLab spinmeisters. Perhaps that's what Campbell (A) was doing on the outskirts of Glasgow in July.
Underestimating one's opponents is most unwise and I can't help thinking that with the return of Lord Mandy there'll be a different approach once that dynamic duo have got all the mileage they can out of the Osbourne "revelations".
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#8 - I'd agree about Jo Swinson. She was similarly good during the Scottish Election coverage, so hopefully the next generation of politicians will be of a similar standard. Shame she chose the Lib Dems and not the SNP.
#11 - Hattersley was by no means a slouch, although I don't think he quite matched the performance of some previous peers on the panel like Heseltine or Ashdown. However, he was no match for Salmond. I don't think it's my state-of-the-art widescreen LCD TV that is the problem - something tells me you would find it difficult to admit a "win" for Salmond. Or should I say "Salmondella"? How mature.
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#15 - dangerous territory there. Remember your not allowed to mention anything that reflects badly on the PM or his wife ... even if the chief Lab press drone was threatening the journos if they didn't comply with his requests!
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good god.
post 16 to 25 awaiting moderation and post 26 passed.
have the new labour police invaded the BBC and attempting censorship of all comments against the new labour party.
they better be using the anti terrorist act as it seems to be useful in containing the icelandic terrorists.
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#26 pattymkirkwood
Not complaining, but wondering what you're doing right.
Do you have any idea why your 14:31 post appeared immediately while posts #16 of 13:46 to #24 of 2:29 are still awaiting moderation?
I've seen it happen occasionally that one or two take longer to moderate because of links but wonder whether the BBC are now introducing a gold card scheme?
BTW. You're probably right re Scotland's new Mrs Brown - it would definitely have been the case with the original.
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of the blogs subject.
i have just received a scottish government survey on behalf of the NHS as to my access to my local GP.
its a good idea, gives the NHS in scotland data straight from the population as to how their local surgeries are preforming with relation to access.
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Yes, the economy has shrank in the private sector and I do hope that the wheels of governance can apply the rules to stabilise this dreadful situation.
I do hope Ms Sturgeons makes a more forceful asserstion of the bleak situation facing home owners ect.
It would be good if the government, inclusive of the Scottish government, listened to Vince Cable, I believe that
the time to lay more of the tax burden
on the super rich, has never been more
needed,
This coupled with a ruduction in income
tax to the low economy, could generate
more spending on the high street.
No, its not a tax cut, its a process of moving
the taxation on to those who can more easily afford it.
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Can people please remember that some of us had no option BUT to take out a mortgage?
I was lucky in that I could afford mine, however, I had no choice but to get a mortgage anyway.
I didn't have family I could live with, I didn't qualify for a housing association property (I did try), I didn't qualify for council housing (I tried that also) and at the time that I bought renting was much higher than mortgage repayments (capital & interest) and was not something I could afford!
My option was get a mortgage or live on the street, and I know many other people who had the same dilemma.
Yet junkies, pregnant kids and people who have never worked an honest day in their lives get housing association and council houses! THEY don't have to face repossession!
I sold my house in December before it got near the repossession stage (due to me getting a very bad case of shingles) and am currently renting using the 'profit' I made on my house. That money will be gone soon and then I WILL be on the street! I have been let down by a system that rewards people who don't even try to work and who allow themselves to get hooked on drugs or intentionally get pregnant, while all I've done is work extremely hard all my life and pay for my own university education yet I still can't earn a decent wage but my bosses (whose work I ACTUALLY DO) get fatcat salaries for doing sweet FA!
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The Magpie alone, of all the birds, had the art of building a nest, the form of which was with a covering over head, and only a small hole to creep out at. The rest of the birds being without houses, desired the pie to teach them how to build one. A day is appointed, and they all meet. The Magpie then says, "You must first lay two sticks across, thus." "Aye," says the Crow, "I thought that was the way to begin." "Then lay a little straw, moss, and feathers, in such a manner as this." "Aye, without doubt," says the Starling, "that necessarily follows; any one could tell how to do that." When the Pie had gone on teaching them till the nest was built half way, and every bird in his turn had known something or other, he left off and said, "Gentlemen, I find you all know the method of building nests as well, if not better, than I do myself, therefore you cannot want any of my instruction." So saying, he flew away, and left them to upbraid each other with their folly; which is visible to this day, as few birds beside the Magpie know how to build more than half a nest.
That wise old bird, George Soros, forecast the financial crisis and its recessionary aftermath years ago. Donald Trump, to name another at random, months ago told those of us who cared to listen that a recession was coming and set about preparing for it. The fact that BT and the Labour UK government and others apparently paid little or no attention is no more his or George Soros' fault than it is the magpie's fault that no bird seems able to learn as well as he how to build a nest.
When most think that they know all or wish to seem to be all-knowing, there appears to be little that they can learn that might have made them all-knowing in the first place. He who knows most knows most that there is little that he does know and that few wish to know even that if required to admit that they did not know it already.
Unfortunate are we all that we are citizens of a state that is centrally governed by a political party that knew not what it was about and knew not that it knew not and whose sympathisers in the media appear to know not that the fact that they knew not does not necessarily mean that we are all as unknowing as they.
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#18
You almost had me ready to return my faulty TV - until I read your last sentence, priceless!! Really, "Spoke truthfully" and "Salmond" should never ever appear in the same sentence.
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Sorry Brian but your report sounds very like some Labour Party propoganda
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I'm sorry Brian but it seems you really are a lightweight when it comes to economic issues.
You may think "a period of silence would be welcome" but it is of critical importance that we talk about it very loudly in order to make sure that people understand that although the impact has been global the root cause of these problems lies very firmly with the US and UK Governments.
Brown must not be allowed to get away with pretending that it is all the fault of the Americans. It is not.. Brown could have insulated the UK from most of this mess but he chose not to allowing house prices to soar, household debt to hit record levels and of course he ignored the record trade deficit.
Frankly, his actions have been tantamount to industrial and economic treachery.
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#18 goodingm &
#22 ScotInNotts
That was my take, too.
#20 DonaldPyper
I agree that the "conflict between Sayeeda Warsi in full Robot mode and Roy Hattersley in indignant illinformed bluster", was the best entertainment value if not quite the main event.
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I'd like to clarify my post #23.
When I meant sensible bloggers (SNP), I was referring to those bloggers who make sensible comments, in this case the SNP ones. There are also sensible bloggers of other political leanings, much as there are rampant uber (I love that word) supporters.
Maybe its only me, but why can't Vince Cable just be the Chancellor? While having no love of the Lib Dems, he is a rare species - a politician who (1) talks sense and (2) knows what he is talking about.
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#25 StroszekBassist
I'm glad we're in agreement re Jo Swinson's performance, but as an old, un-merged Liberal I'd say the pity was that the SDP wing of the LibDems has prevailed in playing down their federalist agenda.
That would appear to be the only logical explanation for their not having gone into coalition with the SDP in '07 with their resulting decline in the polls. OTOH, Cable remains their star performer and he's ex-SDP.
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#31
A good honest post and a sad reflection of the divided society we live in.
I agree many people are forced into the mortgage trap and yes, the private land-lords do make a killing on their rented properties.
I hope you put your case to your local MSP and I most certainly hope they act in your favour. good luck.
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19
By-election results
Whisper it but I get these ones from the Conservative Home Page which carries by- election result most Fridays.
I visit the CHP with a sharp pointed stick on a regular basis. To the credit of those who edit it they allow me free reign and we get some preety interesting debates going. Labour Home Page, however, closed me down after my second contributing visit.
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George W Bush led his country blindly into a crisis, then presented himself to the US electorate as the strong and fearless leader to handle the terrible crisis they found themselves in.
Most people in this country thought that was a sick joke, and couldn't believe the US electorate fell for it. (The Americans regret it now, right enough.)
Apparently, Gordon Brown and his spinners are trying the same routine here. Gravitas, indeed. I don't think it is going to work as well for Gordon as it did for George W, though......most people know who was in charge of economic policy and financial regulation for the last decade.
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"Oh, and, by the way, the economy shrank last quarter."
As they say in Edinburgh -
"You'll have had your post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory then."
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its been reported in the herald that gordon brown is to give all the english and welsh residents legal aid in court cases with regards to reposessions.
can we expect that the scottish government ( barnett formula ) will be given funds as well for all the scottish reposession cases, or will we find that the previous LAB / LIB-DEM were given these funds three years ago which is the standard westminster reply.
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What percentage of the 500Bn will go to help those in rented accommodation.
I think the Scottish parliament should also be making provisions for the rented sector.
No one seems to be addressing that concern?
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#35 Wee-Scamp
"Brown must not be allowed to get away with pretending that it is all the fault of the Americans. It is not.. Brown could have insulated the UK from most of this mess but he chose not to allowing house prices to soar, household debt to hit record levels and of course he ignored the record trade deficit."
Absolutely. He only dithered a few months while others like Cable were warning of the impending regulatory crisis, but many were warning of irresponsible credit expansion as did Cable in the 2005 LibDem manifesto.
"Duff" Gordon has nowhere to hide on this.
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#37 Neil_Small147
While agreeing with most of your post, especially re Cable, I'm afraid I've never been able to take the word uber entirely seriously since hearing, as a callow youth, Michael Flanders discussing national songs with "What a marvellous song that was: German, German overalls" in the intro to the otherwise scurrilous Song Of Patriotic Prejudice which to this day may be the anthem of the English nats.
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#31 LJ H
Point taken
#39 derekbarker
Seconded - do you agree with my #6?
While that the purse strings are controlled from London, it's probably the MP who should be involved for now rather than the MSP.
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#40 sneckedagain
Thank you very much for the tip. Your guilty secret is safe with me - it's certainly not one of the first places I'd have looked. Granted it's a bit like comparing Hitler with Mussolini, but your experience of them is not dissimilar to my own - hence my regarding the Tories as less awful than NuLab as in my #24.
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#43. At 5:06pm on 24 Oct 2008, U13282939 wrote:
"its been reported in the herald that gordon brown is to give all the english and welsh residents legal aid in court cases with regards to reposessions."
Do you have a link? Maybe I'm tired this evening, but I couldn't find anything new on this in the Herald. The only thing relevant I could find was the A last resort editorial which says: "[W]hile English borrowers are entitled to free legal representation at county court hearings, many Scottish families - including many households on income support - are being forced to meet their own legal bills."
I'm lucky enough not to have needed it myself, but a check just now on the DirectGov and Parliament sites doesn't indicate any recent changes in English Law, and the legal aid calculator shows you must be on a pretty low income in England or Wales to benefit. What I can't seem to find is anywhere which shows the specifics of how the Scottish legal aid system is worse.
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How not to handle relations with Iceland
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#28 - that puzzled me too!
I doubt it was a 'gold card' idea!
Maybe its related to the fact they censored my last two posts on the last thread for some reason, which I still don't know about?! I honestly don't know.
It appeared immediately on that occasion for some reason.
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And so did that.
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46. At 6:06pm on 24 Oct 2008, Brownedove
I use the word "uber" in a sarcastic manner.
Fanatical maybe a better word, but that pictures up the SNP fanatics dressed in tartan, faces painted in woad and brandishing Claymores.....you know, Braveheart on a laptop :p
As for the fanatical unionists, Last Night of the Proms comes to mind!
Seriously, anyone from any side of the political spectrum who says that their party has the answers to everything is talking rubbish.
The Mandelson/Osbourne non-story is gathering pace again. Why can't we just fund political parties from a (small) pool of taxpayers money, with quotas for advertising etc. If they want more then they can get out and knock on doors like they should be doing. I want my political candidates to tell me why I should vote for them.
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#31 LJ H
I really sympathise with you, you're going through a tough time. Perhaps that tough time is leading to some broader than necessary conclusions though.
I was given a housing association flat within three weeks of applying (Link Housing). I was neither a drug addict, pregnant, or other neferious type. I was a man with a full time job who'd lost his home through no fault of his own. They had free reign to choose the tenants they wanted and looked to balance the social make-up of every "close". The allocations officer specifically told me that they prioritised working men so that their estates wouldn't become a druggie, single parent ghettoes. Perhaps you need to try a few housing associations? Each has differrent allocations criteria.
After a two year tenancy (this is true!) I got a 120% mortgage with Northern Rock, bought a house then remortgaged when the equity rose to get a better deal. Luckily, I sold the house just before the "crunch" and made some money. So, even when times are really crap, things can improve given time.
All the best.
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Brian,
I find you article more than a little curious given that part of your role is to predict the political future from the current information using your knowledge and experience.
I wonder if you own analysis of the polical landscape and its likely effects have ever been wrong - did you foresee the level of the drop in GBs popularity after the initial honeymoon, or the bounce that he got from his handling of the recent situation? And if you have ever got it wrong, would you welcome articles suggesting that you should be silenced ? hmm, thought not
Try, as you sit in your publicly funded office in a relatively unaccountable corporation to think that the analysts are just trying to make sense of an incredibly complex environment.
Oh, by the way, these financial analysts, are just that, analysts, not oracles. If predicting the financial future was an exact science, they?d all be Warren Buffett.
I realise your grip on the complexities of the financial markets is tenuous at best, so may I suggest to stick to subjects with which you at least have a passing acquantance.
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hi brownedov
its www.theherald.co.uk.
hope it comes through ok as they blocked more of the story earlier.
the bit that you read in my post was from memory.
regards
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#53 Neil_Small147
OK. I can't see the current big two unionist parties actually agreeing on a public funding system, because would formally acknowledge that parties exist and remove virtually the only argument in favour of the 1872 plurality voting system.
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Brownedov.
this is the actual quote ------ Those deficiencies included legal aid, which few borrowers fighting arrears cases in Scotland receive. Yet, thanks to recent moves by the UK Government free legal representation is automatically provided for borrowers in England and Wales.
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I suspect that Lord Mandelson's decision to delay publication of the review into the Royal Mail will last until 7 November.
Now what could be happening on 6 November that requires the "black arts"?
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53. Neil_Small147
"The Mandelson/Osbourne non-story is gathering pace again. Why can't we just fund political parties from a (small) pool of taxpayers money, with quotas for advertising etc. If they want more then they can get out and knock on doors like they should be doing. I want my political candidates to tell me why I should vote for them."
Why do we have to have political parties? Why not "Independent" members that way one would get nearer democracy than having to have whipped in members to follow the party line which results in decisions made to the elected members party benefit rather than the foot soldiers (US the general public).
I posted this link before but I think only a few might of watched. (20mins)
http://www.storyofstuff.com/
This recession is liable to be a lot longer than people would like, if one spends more than the county earns in a decade in excessive borrowing it won't be sorted in a year or two.
Brown was the instigator with his partner in crime Blair and both should be held to account for the result of the lies that they both inflicted on the UK public.
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Oldnat, my wife was looking at the posts
today, she did pick up on your posts and
said "Is that man a real live Alf Garnett"
There you go! fame and impersonation,
did make me laugh, Alf Garnett
"It's part of the B****y furniture' aint it"
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If you've never seen the Scottish Review, (free online Scottish Politics Magazine) it's worth subscribing to.
Some interesting articles. The link above is to Kenneth Roy talking about the "real" corruption in politics.
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#61 derekbarker
West Ham for the Cup!
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#58 U13282939
OK, thanks. The Herald did provide some hints, and in England, the "new" scheme comes from a joint Darling / Flint press release "Strengthening support for home owners in current market conditions" of 9 May 2008 announcing a "[GBP]10 million package of measures to support home owners who may be facing difficulties with their mortgage" and as one of the measures says "expanded access to free legal representation at county courts throughout England for households at risk of repossession".
Hard information on how it works is not easy to find, but a press release of 5 June 2008 on the LSC website "More people than ever saved from homelessness in Aldershot" does say: "Many more people with housing problems seek help at the last minute when they are faced with a possession order. The service, which allows people who turn up at court to get free advice and representation, is busier than ever. It has helped 33 people so far in 2008 and most of them have been able to stay in their homes."
As the entire package for England including "a new comprehensive debt advice service" and "specialist [staff] training" will cost GBP 10 million, it's hard to imagine the free advice and representation bit for Scotland costing as much as GBP 1 million.
Who should pay is another matter, of course and I'm surprised our Welsh cousins aren't up in arms about the existing scheme being for England only.
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60. At 10:43pm on 24 Oct 2008, cynicalHighlander wrote:
Why do we have to have political parties? Why not "Independent" members that way one would get nearer democracy than having to have whipped in members to follow the party line which results in decisions made to the elected members party benefit rather than the foot soldiers (US the general public).
----------
It's a good idea, but it is very difficult for an independent candidate - apart from the odd journalist or retired dcotor - to get in.
The strange thing is that many MPs are actually very good constituency MPs. This is something I think that political journalists forget. For example, a party leader nearly always retains a solid majority, regardless of the national perception.
If MPs were allowed free votes all the time things might actually be better.
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was i imagining it this morning, as it appears that the lead story on GB campaining in glenrothes has been altered all ready.
when i first looked at the article it stated that GB was to attend a meeting in glenrothes with a selected audience, which a labour orginiser went to great pains to stress that it was not all labour party members that would be invited.
they also stated that GB may campain at a later stage in glenrothes.
now the lead story is that GB is to campain in glenrothes and will meet a SNP member whos name is gordon brown.
it appears that the first story has been re-written to give the immpression that GB would actualy going around glenrothes and in the process meet a SNP member.
even at that, if the labour party in scotland and GB knows that he is to meet an SNP member named gordon brown, then it can only be a staged managed meeting.
i can see next weeks headlines, GB converts gordon brown an SNP member to the new labour party. wonder if the mirror broke.
have the BBC been given their spin orders from the new labour party.
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64. At 02:00am on 25 Oct 2008, Brownedov.
it seems to be hard to clarify the exact details of what is now availiable in england and wales for the population in danger of reprocession.
the herald article appears to have dissappeared this morning, but as it was in effect a quote from the govan law certre and its possibly that it was souped up a little to maximise political manovouring.
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#66 Its not often i'll defend GB but i can see why he cant just wander about the streets. He must be a huge target for terrorists and the security if he turns up will be large and costly. Saying that though ... a little debate with Alex would maybe be a good thing .
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rabbiehippo.
where as i can agree with you on that, as far as i know tony blair campained a couple of times at by-elections and there was no problems that i heard of, and he was a bigger terrorist target.
plus does he not campain in his own constituency during a general election.
ok. you may get the odd nutter that will throw an egg at a politician.
there is no chance that he will debate with alex salmond as his hatred for the SNP is to hard for him to conceal.
also he could come out with the excuse that GB prime ministers do not debate with first ministers of a wee pretendy parliament ( remember alex used a similar excuse re: cairns ).
has GB ever debated with any member of an opposition party ???. where as he's been on the box being interviewed, i don't know if he has debated, but thats not to say that he hasn't.
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68. At 10:11am on 25 Oct 2008, rabbiehippo wrote:
#66 Its not often i'll defend GB but i can see why he cant just wander about the streets. He must be a huge target for terrorists and the security if he turns up will be large and costly. Saying that though ... a little debate with Alex would maybe be a good thing .
-------
I agree with your comments about security.
As for a debate, it would be nice to see. But there are dangers for Alex Salmond as well as Gordon Brown. I get the feeling that Alex wants a debate publicly but knows Brown will not agree.
Watching some of the US presidential debates, it is clear that a favourite can very quickly come unstuck.
I'm quite sure Alex has considered the risks, but this would not be Wendy Alexander he's facing. Regardless of your view on Gordon Brown, while not as good as Tony Blair, he is still an effective debater.
Gordon Brown losing a debate would not be great news, but Alex losing would be. A time for caution I think.
But just as I thought at the time, Mandelson has turned out to be a godsend for the opposition parties following the recent "clarification" about his meetings.
On the repossessions, has anyone got a clear idea precisely what is going to happen in Scotland? I am getting mixed messages from all sides.
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70. At 11:04am on 25 Oct 2008, Neil_Small147.
your probably correct, but as i personaly have never seen GB debate, i don't know if he is any good.
if you go into what the papers say, you can pick up a few articles on the repossession in scotland, but as in england its a bit unclear to all that is availiable.
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rabbiehippo.
i should make it clear that my post at 66 was about the quick change in the article + plus my little bit of my twisted wit.
.
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Having heard about the affair of the prime minister's wife, I was naturally intrigued and so, putting to one side for the time being my consideration of the SNP campaign, I directed my fleet feet towards a place called Cardenden, which previously had not figured in my itinerary in the course of the Glenrothes by-election campaign.
Imagine my surprise when I found that, although it seems that no shots were actually fired, the entourage of the supreme overlord's consort had actually warned members of the accompanying media circus that they might be fired upon by the esteemed lady's armed bodyguard if they approached her.
We only wanted to ask her a few questions, they protested, apparently. No questions, however, were permitted, as if the lady in question were the exalted if politically impotent personage known in the UK state as her majesty the queen, defender of the faith of its largely faithless population. So the media were kept at arm's length. While I can understand why one might wish to keep the UK media at arm's length, I remain confused and indeed perplexed by the whole affair, I who am so rarely confused or perplexed, save, of course, when confronted with the various doings of Scottish Labour.
It seems that the supreme overlord's lady was conducted by specially selected Labour Party worthies along a specially selected Labour-supporting thoroughfare so as not to have to encounter an elector whom her visit, if significant dialogue had been allowed, might have served to persuade of the alleged desirability of voting Labour at a time when that party's administration of the UK financial sector and the wider economy has been shown convincingly to have been disastrously questionable.
Another fine mess, someone said, quoting, I understand, a popular personage of the 1930s period of global economic and political upheaval, Oliver Hardy. Not that I am wishing to insist that there is anything extraordinarily clownish about the Labour Party's by-election campaign or even its management of the economy. Why insist where insistence is redundant? Judge for yourselves. Facts are chiels that winna ding, as you are always saying.
Having conducted an exhaustive search for any authoritative indication of a formal constitutional role for the spouse of the head of government of the UK state, I find that there is none. Why, then, drag the poor woman all the way to Glenrothes for a stunt that could only conceivably have been of use to the Labour Party as a media event and then wilfully sabotage the whole thing by trying to keep the media at a distance and uttering rather silly veiled threats at them? Don't ask me. I am only a Pimpleton. What would I know?
Delphic though I be not, I predict that the supreme overlord will now appear to try to undo the damage.
Toodloothenoo.
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HBOS Lloyds merger
Given that we know thatAn interesting input on bank mergers/takeovers from the New York Times (though you may have to subscribe to their free online version to read it).
So When Will Banks Give Loans
Given the author's conclusion that "the dirty little secret of the banking industry is that it has no intention of using the money to make new loans" and quotes a Chas Manhattan executive as saying
- bankers did not operate in the interests of their shareholders, much less the public
- the regulatory bodies (except perhaps in Lebanon did not know what was happening, much less politicians of any party
- Lloyds and HBOS were talking about merger 2 years ago, but knew the competition laws would scupper it.
The obvious question is "Are the banks again taking Government (and us) for a ride again?"
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With regards to the various comments that Sarah Brown's bodyguards would "shoot if anyone got too close", does anyone have this on video?
Bearing in mind the ongoing inquiry about the tragic shooring in London, such comments should not be made unless there is foundation to them.
The PMs (and Royal) bodyguards are armed and will use lethal force if required. But they are not going to spray the media simply because they get too close.
If it is a journalist making spurious allegations, then he should be making a formal complaint to the police about a person making specific threats to kill them.
If there is no threat, I would suggest that the journalist making the allegations is charged with whatever offence it is (breach of the peace? causing alarm?).
I honestly do not believe that any such threats were made, but that the journalists concerned simply wanted some more publicity for their paper/radio/tv.
If there IS a video proving otherwise, please BBC show it on the news. It would be a world exclusive and cause massive publicity worldwide. It would almost certainly lead to criminal proceedings.
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74 Oldnat see my #50 on Confident performance but dont mention iceland blog a bit back. The banks are getting away with murder and another thing the unfair bank charges case seems to be forgotten for meantime ..... handy that eh ... banks screw poor people then when they mess up themselves they have to depend on poor tax payers money to keep it up .....
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74. oldnat
"The obvious question is "Are the banks again taking Government (and us) for a ride again?"
YES
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7688308.stm
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#66 U13282939
"was i imagining it this morning...."
If you were, it was a joint hallucination. I looked at the BBC politics site about 09:00 BST and it had the same 2nd half of the story but the 1st half was about GB having a chat-in with a group (of 10?) "who are not all Labour Party members". At the time of writing, the timestamp of Brown goes for by-election votes is 11:43 BST, so the implication is certainly that he's frit of answering even planted questions. His "I wanted to come and explain to people..." says it all, really. So much for the listening, then.
I think you misread re Gordon Brown, the local SNP member. It's Alex Salmond he's meeting, as it was in the original story. Presumably it's to have a photo-op and a quote re the fritness of GB's namesake. Not that I would blame him.
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62. At 11:38pm on 24 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote
Thank you oldnat, not come across this before. A very well written piece, enough to back me blink back the tears
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#78 ... I to thought that AS had met the Gb namesake ... here's a thought ... why not put him up in GB's constitution next general election ... what confusion there would be .... 2 Gordon Browns lol
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#67 U13282939
The references are pretty hard to find, but in the course of my search for enlightment last night, I did come across other similar statements to the Aldershot "allows people who turn up at court to get free advice and representation" on repossession matters in my #64.
It's certainly not yet explained on the Legal Aid or Citizens Advice websites, but - trying to be fair - it does look as though it's in the process of being rolled out.
Never having needed those services, where I'm unclear is on what the differences in Scottish provision are. I presume they're still means-tested, but have no idea in what other ways, if any, they're distinct.
It certainly strikes me as something needing to be beefed up as we go into recession, and my guess is that the FM's advisors had to do much the same web trawl as I did to figure out when, where and what the "recent" changes in England were before coming out with the statement that it would be investigated.
That nothing was announced in the UK Parliament (the press release was on a Friday) and that other agencies don't seem to be co-ordinated too well, provides the FM with some good ammunition in explaining why the changes were not widely known, but I suspect Scotland will have to follow suit when the funding is sorted.
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#73 Greetings_Earthlings
"No questions, however, were permitted, as if the lady in question were the exalted if politically impotent personage known in the UK state as her majesty the queen, defender of the faith of its largely faithless population."
I suspect they confused her with the original Mrs Brown. who was ideed "known in the UK state as her majesty the queen, defender of the faith of its largely faithless population."
We earthlings are a confused lot.
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#80 rabbiehippo
Nice thought. I seem to recall it happening in England at least once before. It could even have been in Bliar's seat.
Unfortunately, now they can show party allegiance on the ballot paper if they wish to, I suspect the confusion would be minimal.
OTOH, if either the Scottish Socialists or The Official Monster Raving Loony Party could persuade GB2 to run for them it WOULD cause confusion.
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I hear tell that the Sunday newspapers have explosive revelations about Peter Mandelson's contacts with the Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska.
Looks like Mandy could be on his way out office for the third time in asking.
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#81 Brownedov
"when the funding is sorted"
One of the major difficulties in the financial aspect of devolution, is the lack of transparency in English spending - the UK Government simultaneously acting as the Government of England.
If the additional support for CABs etc came out of the pre-Barnett planning for spending in England, then it's perfectly reasonable for them to spend their money in a different way from Scotland, Wales and NI.
If it was additional spending then there are Barnett implications.
This lack of accounting transparency seems to underly the disagreement between Salmond and Cooper over Barnett top-ups not having been made available to Scotland.
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It may be worth noting in passing that, while the UK prime minister is shuffling about awkwardly in the wind and rain of Glenrothes with his wife, his governor-general and the diminutive Labour candidate in the by-election, the President of the European Union has been busy saving the planet.
Leading a delegation of EU leaders to Beijing in preparation for the November international conference which he has arranged with the President of the United States to consider a successor to the Bretton Woods agreement governing global financial regulation, President Sarkozy has been busy rallying support among the newly influential and indeed powerful states of the East.
Meanwhile, stock markets have continued to fall this week and substantial interests in major western concerns are being acquired by various middle-eastern and eastern investors at rock-bottom prices. The President of the European Union has proposed to the EU the creation of European sovereign funds to prevent control of key institutions and industries passing into potentially hostile hands. What has the prime minister of the British Union been doing along these lines? Or has he been too busy shuffling about in Glenrothes?
Without wishing to seem to be presuming to pronounce delphically, I think that one should recognize that the West is faced with more than a recession. The recession may be the inevitable aftermath of the Anglo-American financial crisis, but the recession will have a problematic aftermath too. After the recession may come a new world order, whether we care to think in such terms or not: the sunset of the dominance of the West and the dawning of the age of the East. In comparison with that, Mr Brown's British Union pre-occupation with denying Glenrothes to the Scottish National Party seems like an indulgence that Europe can ill afford at present if Mr Brown is as central to its hopes for recovery as you are told that he is.
Or is possession of Scotland more important than you have been told? In view of the economic disaster that is enveloping the UK, the assets of Scotland could hardly be described as trifling. If they are so important to the UK and for its economic well-being, does it not seem worth asking whether the UK needs Scotland more than Scotland needs the UK? Is Scotland being frightened out of its wits by UK politicians warning against independence because they are frightened out of their wits at the prospect of having to face the future without Scotland's assets? If you are in Fife and you get a chance to speak to Mr Brown today, although that is hardly likely, ask him.
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#73
Greetings, Oh dark force.
In such distress at the lack of support for
the nats.
Never mind trooper, your satellite tosh may
give you energy.
Pimpleton of the pale kind, cast off.
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#85 oldnat
I couldn't agree more, which is why I believe full fiscal autonomy to be essential and urgent. If there is any real chance of the UK surviving long-term, the fiscal details for all 4 "home" nations must be in the public domain and if cross-nation subsidy really is required then that too should be transparent and openly discussed.
Transparency is key right now, and the FM should make more of it in the Glenrothes campaign.
I suspect it's also a major issue in producing the Whole of Government Accounts and a major reason why they'll not be ready before a 2010 general election. In fact, I'll be surprised in they're out before the 2011 SP election.
BTW, the link in my #78 was updated again at 14:11 BST. The text looks the same, but it now includes some video of GB pointedly not answering a question on his own responsibility for the current problems and out and about in Glenrothes not meeting people. Stirring stuff!
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#86 frankly_francophone
I can't say I'm a fan of Sarko's but I agree that he and Merkel have done much more than the GB who supports NuLab to try to sort things out on an EU and a global basis.
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#86 frankly_francophone
"In comparison with that, Mr Brown's British Union pre-occupation with denying Glenrothes to the Scottish National Party seems like an indulgence that Europe can ill afford at present"
I think this simply demonstrates that prevention of Scottish independence is just as important to Labour Unionists in Scotland as achieving it is for the Nationalists. That's what Brown's "Britishness" campaign was all about - nothing to do with endearing himself to Middle England.
I don't, for a moment, imagine that Brown set out to "destroy Scottish banking" or similar tosh - though that decision making remained in Britain, but not necessarily in Scotland might have been seen by him as reducing the strength of the independence argument, and hence a collateral benefit.
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Brian could you let us know if you were at the Special Branch quick draw mentioned in the papers. If so can you please explain wh only the BBC was invited until the list was expanded after the rest of the Scottish Media found out.
I realise you are of the Unionist persuasion, and dont for a moment hold that against you. As a matter of fact I actually enjoy reading your blether, and admire your compositions.
If you were at that Sarah Brown photo hoot, I mean shoot. Where you not concerned for Mrs Browns welfare. It appeared to be shambolic in the extreme.
Anyway that is by and by. It appears that the Brown man is feart of Alex Salmond, after the way he had to be smuggled into a cafe next to Lonon New Labours Campaign Headquarters in an Industrial Estate.
Now as we all know te Alex doesnt sneek into anywhere. As a matter of fact you can hear him coming when he leaves his house in Edinburgh. Thats because he is swamped where ever he goes. The media cant resist him, and the Scottish People treat him like a friend of the family. I remember seeing him dander along the east end of Princes Street, yet I was in aw of him. I didnt want to bother the man, but within minutes women were giggling and you could hear them all cry out, "theres Mr Salmond" as they swarmed him. Of course he had them laughing their heads off. Anyway isnt that exactly should happen to a leader of a Nation.
Its quite sad that Bown has to sneak in to be met by two pre approved couples for i would guess, a cup of tea and a chat for 15/20 minutes in an Industrial estate.
It sort of says it all Brian, dont you agree. The man isnt welcome in Scotland at all, and it looks like he never will be again.
I genuinely wonder if he realises the consequence of his actions on the undermining the HBOS. Our Bank, Not an English Bank.
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I'd love to know why my post 75 has been referred to the moderators.
It did not libel or insult anyone, not did it contain inapproprate language.
Someone on this board obviously does not like criticism of their political favourites.
To the moderators: if you do decide to reject a postm when you email the offender, can you please make it more specific?
Many comments on this board are referred by others simply because they do not like the content.
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91. At 4:04pm on 25 Oct 2008, scottishrepublic wrote:
Now as we all know te Alex doesnt sneek into anywhere. As a matter of fact you can hear him coming when he leaves his house in Edinburgh. Thats because he is swamped where ever he goes. The media cant resist him, and the Scottish People treat him like a friend of the family. I remember seeing him dander along the east end of Princes Street, yet I was in aw of him. I didnt want to bother the man, but within minutes women were giggling and you could hear them all cry out, "theres Mr Salmond" as they swarmed him.
------------------
Not everyone views Mr Salmond with rose-tinted spectacles. A certain Mr Blair got a similar reaction during his first year in power. Things will change.
"I genuinely wonder if he realises the consequence of his actions on the undermining the HBOS. Our Bank, Not an English Bank."
Is this the conspiracy theory raising its ugly head again? AS is quoted in 2007 as saying that banks should not be over regulated! Its a world wide issue because financial companies world wide were copying their rivals to ensure they won the business.
For your information, HBOS is a joint Scottish-English bank. The Halifax was started in the town of Halifax, surprise surprise. It is not an ancient Scottish institution.
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&0
Gordon Brown has made a career of not being interviewed live or appearing live on the TV political programmes. In fact the one certain thing t you can be sure of about Brown over the years is that whenever there was a bit of bad news about he could never be found
Can't avoid it now, however
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#93 Neil_Small147
Why anyone lauds politicians is beyond me - but some politicians are more useful to us than others - currently AS seems better than IG to help protect Scotland from the downturn, and to keep the pressure on the UK for a better constitutional settlement.
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When I were but a lad politicians held big open meetings.
Now this from the Scotsman.
The PM made a brief visit to the Fife town in carefully-controlled circumstances
"Mr Brown sat with candidate Lindsay Roy at a table at Cormack's Café, where they chatted with six people who Labour had said had expressed an interest in meeting the Prime Minister."
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95. At 4:54pm on 25 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote:
#93 Neil_Small147
Why anyone lauds politicians is beyond me - but some politicians are more useful to us than others - currently AS seems better than IG to help protect Scotland from the downturn, and to keep the pressure on the UK for a better constitutional settlement.
I know he's far superior to most politicians, but he has his flaws as does everyone. And to be fair he does keep the pressure up on Westminster.
But he does tend to overdo things, although to be fair with the current financial crisis he has settled down.
On the other side, Mr Gray seems very very quiet. At the very least I would have expected him to come out challenging AS; the man is not invincible and can be put on the spot if you do yor homework. But he seems to be leaving things to the big boys in London.
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It is uncanny how the P.M. can totally blank-out the fact that he is personally responsible for the mess our country is in. I am fed up with the media ignoring the fact he was chancellor for 10 years and his policies led to needless borrowing to maintain excessive public sector employment, along with the ridiculous salaries being paid in Local government management and the NHS management. Teachers got over 30% rises,GPs got 100%, millions have been spent on needless consultants and yet Brown gets away with saying this is a global problem and has nothing to do with Labour. It is similar to the labour/lib Dem crowd in Scotland who seem to have forgotten they had power for 10 years and so must be held responsible for the similar waste in Scotland. Get real a Big boy didn't do it and run away YOU LABOUR DID IT>
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When I were but a lad politicians held big open meetings.
Now this from the Scotsman.
The PM made a brief visit to the Fife town in carefully controlled circumstances
"Mr Brown sat with candidate Lindsay Roy at a table at Cormack's Café, where they chatted with six people who Labour had said had expressed an interest in meeting the Prime Minister."
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Sorry about duplicate posting. For some reason, it hadn't cleared from the comment box.
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This is St Crispin's Day, so a little taste of Shakespeare for Brown in Glenrothes seems apposite
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I know we have some posters who complain about BBC bias. That have a point on this one. We have doom and gloom everywhere, job losses, energy increases and the prospect of things getting worse. Brown and his government need to accept the blame even though there is global downturn. Brown's policies have left us in no position to resist the downturn. There is nothing in the cupboard. Brown has been claiming credit for the good times. Fair enough but he needs to put his hands up and also claim credit for the bad times.
Where does the BBC and Brian confront these issues? Instead they paste Brown's comments on this mortgage issue. Pathetic!
Freedom
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100. oldnat
Thats ok since the 6 came from 3 families! I wonder how that stacks up statistically 0.00%?
The man's still in total denial mode of his part in this fiasco.
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Regarding the real economy, the Keynesian solutions being applied by all and sundry may work. But I have a nasty feeling they won't. Bringing forward large infrastructure projects might be a good idea, but in the UK, for reasons unknown, we pay truly fantastical sums for infrastructure. Ought we not be trying to get value for money instead?
You might argue that the money will end up in the economy anyway, no matter how overpriced the infrastructure. But that ignores the opportunity cost of employing people and resources that could be more gainfully used elsewhere.
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If Brown has actually had the guts to show himself in the Glenrothes area - considering what happened when Mrs Brown visited earlier - one wonders what the body count is sitting at!?
Real people are out there (not just Labour Party plants), some of them may even want to ask questions like: why the Brown downturn?
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#1 I cant fault you on what you say but the problem is, and what sticks in most peoples craw is that the biggest Self indulgent profligate people that you speak of are the banks themselves !!!
If you make your bed then you lie in it is what you are saying ,so does that apply to our hypocritical banking institutions as well ???
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#94 Spot on my friend , Brown must have been grief stricken when his favourite interviewer GMTV'S Fiona Phillips quit recently. Never mind there is still lorraine Kelly : )
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#104 Anaxim
Keynsian solutions work fine given the following conditions -
The public works being undertaken have not only been identified as desirable, but the planning is virtually complete so that work can begin in the very near future.
That the borrowing required to fund them does not use the same finance that is needed to fund growth areas of the wider economy.
Unfortunately, politicians are only concerned with the current electoral cycle, and it is not likely that they will take account of long term needs rather than short term political gain.
It is entirely conceivable that Western politicians embark on hastily developed projects with no immediate benefits, and which increase lending costs for small business.
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81. At 2:10pm on 25 Oct 2008, Brownedov wrote:
That nothing was announced in the UK Parliament (the press release was on a Friday) and that other agencies don't seem to be co-ordinated too well, provides the FM with some good ammunition in explaining why the changes were not widely known, but I suspect Scotland will have to follow suit when the funding is sorted.
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yes, it seems funny that the press release was on friday and the govan law centre and cathy jamison were asking nicola for her comments on friday, possibly before she knew about the press release and her answers would relate to the setup before friday.
it looks like new labour are desperate.
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i may have read the earlier story wrongly, as the looking at the now story, it clearly says that salmond would be meeting gordon brown the snp member. but then again perhaps that is part of why the original story was changed so quickly ??.
the reason i posted that post was to do with the change in the article from a meeting to GB campaining, which seemed to me that spin was going on and i was asking myself was it that article that i had read or from a different paper ect..
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#109 U13282939
I'm 100% certain they have changed the BBC page twice but have no possible way of knowing whether it was changed even more often. You may have seen version 1 and I saw version 2.
The by-line to the story from the politics pages certainly is spin: "Gordon Brown hits the campaign trail in Glenrothes ..."
A little strong when his activities seem to have been confined to an industrial estate and consisted of a photo-op with the candidate outside campaign HQ and a lecture to the 3 families (poor souls!) in the caff next door.
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Brownedov.
by my counting, sahah brown is the more succesful campainer as she found 9 potential new labour voters, but gordon could only find 6.
wonder if the missing 3 was that they defected to other parties as soon as gordon arrived.
in a herald article, its reported that AD says that the government will not interfer with the LLOYDS TSB over keeping jobs in scotland re the HBOS merger.
is this the same AD that earlier had a meeting with the LLOYDS TSB chairman because he was worried about the potential job loss in his constituency and he was perhaps worrying about himself being dumped at the next general election.
his statment now, should go down well in glenrothes with the bank workers.
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Neil_Small147.
re mandelson.
i looking at the story a few times, it struck me that mandelson says his officials gave out the missleading information that he had first met the russian millionaire in 2006, and that he now was setting the record straight.
does he not check information before his officials release it to the press. ?
could he not have set the record straight right after his officials gave out the missleading information, and now due to the papers releasing the fact that he had meet the russian in 2004 he is trying to spin his way out of it.
was he keeping quiet about the 2004 meeting, because he did not know that the press knew about it.
message to GORDON BROWN, is MANDELSON the best unelected person that he can find for his cabinet, because it does not say a lot for the elected members of his new labour party.
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#110 Also interesting to note that all 3 families had generally voted Labour in the past althought one voted for the SNP last time but all would be voting Labour this time . In the imortal words of Ritchard Littlejohn ...... ' you couldnt make it up' .
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110. At 08:18am on 26 Oct 2008, Brownedov.
it was about 8.30am that i first read the story, and then i went on to read what the papers say, then went back to the bbc page.
they may have changed the story twice ( 3 versions ), but its impossible for me to say that with certainty, hence i have got t admit that i may have mis-read the first edition.
anyway, you and oldnat keep up the links in your posts as they are very informative.
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what am i doing, it should be sarah brown in my 111 post. sorry.
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Not only are we bailing these people out they obviously have no morals.
"Banks exploit legal loophole to seize homes"
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5014781.ece
"From next year banks will be given further arbitrary powers because they will no longer need to secure a county court judgment against a defaulting debtor. They will be able to move directly to seek a charging order after two or three months of missed payments."
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New YouGov Scottish poll in the Sunday Times today at: Labour steals SNP lead in Glenrothes. Looks surprisingly good for Labour, but I'll do some analysis of it before commenting further - off out now so will be this afternoon.
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#115 cynicalHighlander
My understanding is that while "Charging Orders" are used elsewhere in the UK, the Scottish equivalent is an "Inhibition Order".
The difference being that, while both allow the creditor to get money back from the debtor, an Inhibition Order is on the person with the debt and not on their property. Hence, if you own property in Scotland, you couldn't sell it if you were the subject of an IO, but the creditor can't order its sale to get their cash back.
Any lawyer out there please correct me if I've misunderstood.
Scots Law, however, seems to provide better protection than English Law - I would have thought that the Govan Law Centre would have pointed this out!
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#116 Brownedov
It's not surprising that the polls have changed given the economic crisis. While I'll want to see the actual YouGov data (they're terribly slow in releasing them), the Sunday Times has concentrated on the changes "since the last YouGov poll in the first week of September".
A more useful comparison might be the changes since the last relevant election, in order to get some insight into Glenrothes.
Scottish Parliament constituency vote (changes since 2007 in brackets)
CON 14%(-3) LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 12%(-4), SNP 39%(+6)
Scottish Parliament regional vote (changes since 2007 in brackets)
CON 16%(+2), LAB 29%(NC), LDEM 11%(NC) SNP 32%(+1)
Westminster General election (changes since 2005 in brackets)
CON 20%(+4), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 11%(-12), SNP 29%(+11)
The most obvious pointer is that the SNP have improved their % share since 2007, (leaked Lib-Dem data from individual polling stations within the Glenrothes constituencey indicate that the SNP in 2007 had the same small lead over Labour that they had in Central Fife).
While we can't apply national patterns to individual constituencies, the SNP might be cautiously optimistic.
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111. At 09:19am on 26 Oct 2008, U13282939
Re Mandelson. I can't believe (well, perhaps I can) what has happened here. Yet another MP not checking what their officials give out. Not soley a Labour problem, happens to them all.
But I am deeply concerned with why Mandelson has been brought in. Yes, politically in terms of organisation and planning he is apparently very good. But why did Gordon Brown not utilise him quietly?
I think the divisions in the Labour Party are deeper than one would imagine. Ironically, it requires someone who is from the right of the the party to close things up.
The Tories are absolutely right to request clarification. This is not about donations here: it is about trade concessions across Europe.
It does not help matters when we have more pressing concerns.
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119. At 12:43pm on 26 Oct 2008, Neil_Small147.
hi neil,
one of the problems is that mandelson is not an MP, and therefor should not be in the gordon browns cabinet, as not one of the population has voted for him.
yes, a government can use people as advisors, thats fine, but to appoint an unelected person to a cabinet position, that should be a no no.
as he had been forced to resign twice from tony blairs govenment because of improprieties, and his reward was the european business commisioners job ( hope that is the right title ).
Re. the not checking what info the officials have given out. its the only after a substantial period and after the european investigation has finnished that he is now saying that he met the russian in 2004 and it now having come into the public domain that Mandelson is now trying to wriggle his way out of it.
and yes, it can happen to any member of any party, but i would expect them to clarify the true position quickly especially if a conflict of interest was involved.
he may be good at orginising and planning, but personaly do not trust mandelson and i question gordon browns judgment in this matter.
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#115 Definately no morals or it seems loyalty to the country. A wee item from Private Eye ' In the past 2 years Barclays,HBOS,RBOS,HSBC and Lloyds TSB have all been forced by a tax tribunal to hand over details of hundreds of thousands of customers accounts due to strong evidence of a large number being used for tax fraud.HBOS and Barclays (several times) have had artificial schemes to avoid their own tax bills exposed in recent years,while RBS was exposed last year in instrumental in helping Prudential seek to avoid tens of millions in tax through a highly contrived tax avoidance scheme .......so the question is .... why should these banks be bailed out by the tax payer when some are trying to avoid paying tax themselves.
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watching gorden brown talking about the global crisis and also about the hbos merger, he is trying to keep a serious face but you see the smiles breaking through in both cases.
he is saying that both sets of bank bosses want the merger and that hbos problem is liquidity, then surely if the goverment has put funds into hbos then that sorts the hbos problem.
there is a good article in the sunday herald on the hbos merger.
i know for me, if the merger goes ahead and a lot of jobs are lost in scotland then i will close my hbos business and personal accounts ( which are both in the black ) and transfer to the royal bank.
the more i read about the hbos merger the more i become convinced that the merger is not a financial decision but a political decision.
yes, i know that the merger would result in 4 billion savings ( extra profit ) for the merged group, but at what cost to the employess. is the new labour government more concerned about increasing the merged banks profit or about the ordinary working man.
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104
Anaxim
Indeed we have been paying an extortionate price for public works a lot of which can be ascribed to the discredited PFI gravy train and the Quango gravy train. All the more commendable then that the SNP Government is building the new £850million Sorthern General Hospital in Glasgow entirely out of current revenues to avoid addng to the £1billion John Swinny has to find each year before he does anything else to service the debts on all those PFI schools and hospitals which Labour boast of building but negect to mention didn't pay for.
The Government has also had a look at the gravy train Housing Association budgets and found out that we were paying almost £130,000 per unit for social housing and that has been stopped pronto.
The decision by the Scottish Government that all new build council housing from now cannot be sold cheap to tenants has persuaded a number of councils already to restart council housing building projects.
Why is all this good news not in the papers?
Might it make the SNP too popular?
116
Times poll. It is already well out of date having been taken at the height of the economic crisis panic. People are steadily remembering who led us into it in the first place
No doubt some of the papers will use this poll to try to effect the Glenrothes result. There is a lot to be said for those democracies which forbid publication of opinion polls during election campaigns.
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according to the times poll ( link in post 116 ) then the unionist parties should have no fear in letting the scottish electorate have a referendum on seperation.
i was supprised that they did not include a question on the transfer of full fiscal powers to the scottish parliament.
will someone tell tavish that there are far greater problems facing scotland than racism ect. at football matches at this present time.
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#123 sneckedagain
All polls are out of date by the time they are posted - that can be even more pronounced at a time of crisis. Which is why it's worth looking at this one quite carefully - as opposed to the media spin.
The details are now available and I'll do some more work on them - but in the meantime to the question "Which of the following do you believe would make the best Scottish first minister?" the response favouring Salmond (by party) were as follows -
SNP - 89% : Lab - 21% : Con - 23% : LD - 20%
The % of the non SNP voters favouring their own leader was -
Lab - 37% : Con - 39% : LD - 34%
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You Gov Poll
Of those intending to vote for each of the 4 main parties for Westminster, the % intending to vote for the other parties for Scottish Parliament constituencies is -
SNP - Con 1% : Lab 1% : L_D 2% : Total 4%
L_D - Con 2% : Lab 1% : SNP 14% : Total 17%
Lab - Con 3% : SNP 9% : L_D 6% : Total 18%
Con - SNP 14% : Lab 3% : L_D 7% : Total 24%
Glenrothes may well depend on the number of non-SNP core voters who see the by-election as primarily a UK or Scottish election.
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YouGov Poll
The question about the banks and attitudes to independence was interestingly phrased!
"The UK government recently invested £37 billion in Scottish banks to help them deal with the current economic crisis. Has this made you more or less likely to back Scottish independence? "
By Westminster voting intention the % reporting that their attitude to a Yes vote on independence was more or less likely because of this -
Con - more 6% : less 34% : no diff 60%
Lab - more 8% : less 41% : no diff 51%
L_D - more 3% : less 26% : no diff 70%
SNP - more 43% : less 10% : no diff 46%
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#118, #125 oldnat
I agree 100%. If you have Excel you should be able to open the YouGov figures on the Times website in Excel to get the detail to 0.1%. For example, Headline Lab & SNP %s are 38 & 29 but actuals are 37.9 & 29.4 - significant in a tight race. I'm only just back with preparation for next week to do, so it may be quite late before I can do the analysis promised
#123 sneckedagain
Points taken, but it's the best info available unless someone has spotted a Glenrothes poll anywhere. Like all such it needs to be taken with a very large pinch of salt.
#124 U13282939
True re the referendum, but surely the LibDems will come to their senses re fiscal autonomy sooner or later. As a minority report on Calman, perhaps?
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#128 Brownedov
I put it in Excel, but the YouGov data is in an htm file with pre-rounded percentages.
Also (annoyingly) because it's UK centric, it treats the Westminster voting intentions as "central", and Scottish voting as deviant from that. We need to be able to look at the data the other way round - the Scottish Constituency vote as being the "core" political identity, with voters "lending" their vote to a UK party at Westminster when they deem it appropriate.
As they do it, it's meaningless to try to see patterns in how party supporters differentially use their votes on the lists.
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Nice stats oldnat. Without wanting to criticise your research, the problem with any statistics, especially via polls, is that they are not usually accurate (note the word usually).
I work as an ops analyst/auditor. I deal with extrapolation etc fairly often. Politics are always a sticky area, since they are based on peoples' opinions at the time of the poll.
The SNP have done well to maintain their status for so long, helped in part by the Labour Party's disarray.
However, they must be careful since a wrong move - and it can only take a minor hiccupp - can drastically change the polls.
I don't know whether the SNP have peaked yet with their popularity. They are greatly enhanced by Alex Salmond. Remove him and they certainly lose a substantial percentage.
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#104 Anaxim
"There is nothing magic about this Keynesian fad"
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/2539381/there-is-nothing-magic-about-this-keynesian-fad.thtml
"The government?s policy is not intellectually original, it will not be fully implemented in practice and, to the extent that it is implemented, it will be a disaster. Further, no other country is copying Brown?s plan or behaving as vindictively as Britain towards its financial system."
"Brown and Darling, notorious left-wingers in their early political careers, may indeed have a taste for ?isms?. Far from setting an example to the rest of the world, they have inaugurated a policy of economic and financial sado-masochism in one country."
Since £3 out of £4 will have to come from outside investors as the UK has no savings left It is difficult to see who is going to take the risk. Stock up the larder with imperishables.
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#130 Neil_Small147
The Scottish Parliament has the power to reduce income tax, but has never used it. Does Kerr imagine that any LA will voluntarily reduce it's revenue (as well as incur the consequent costs) or that the 32 LAs would all set rates which varied by a fraction of a penny? This simply makes him look silly.I worked with education stats, and am well aware of the problems of extrapolating from limited data. They need to be carefully used to identify possible trends rather than absolutes - that's not, however, how they're seen by most people who don't work with data.
I don't think that only the SNP needs to be careful about how stories will alter opinion.
For example, the Herald has a story about the SNP's investigation of possible changes to LIT to make it even fairer, and to get agreement with the Lib-Dems.
It's worth looking at how the Labour statements will run.
Or Iain Gray - Voters may well be happier with a party prepared to compromise on policy than those determined to stick to committed positions (especially if those positions are determined in London).
Gray also leaves Labour in the position of trying to keep higher taxes on the poorer and elderly, while protecting the low tax position of households in which several people are all earning. That's not any kind of Socialism that I recognise - even derek would have a problem justifying that!
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Not a happy man as his aims of being hailed as saviour of the World's finances are not going his way.
"PM hits out at other countries for ignoring his advice"
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/PM-hits-out-at-other.4630772.jp
117. oldnat
Thanks I googled "Inhibition Order" and your understanding seems correct.
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From the Herald -
"Prime Minister Gordon Brown today hit out at other countries for failing to take his advice to avert economic crisis by improving financial regulations.
He said he was "angry" that banks were not being supervised across borders, 10 years since he first argued his case."
Can anyone point me to what he said about this 10 years ago, and what steps he took?
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#133 Is it just me or is there something strange about this sentence from your link 'You cannot build the future of the whole of the United Kingdom, people's pensions, the future of Scotland, people's savings and people's jobs, on a volatile commodity," he said. '
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#129 oldnat
If you have Excel, there are ways of downloading the files (I use Front Page) and opening them in Excel but the easiest way to see the numbers is to go to the RESULTS tab on http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results.htm and simply "Select All" and "Copy" in IE. Then go into Excel, create a new worksheet and "Paste". You'll then get all the data, but with the percentages set to zero decimal places. Simpy select all the % data from the Labour 38 to the end (Ctrl-Shift-End) and "Format Cells" to Number with 1 decimal place and you'll see them all in more detail.
I'll hope to publish my own guesstimates fairly soon.
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#134 oldnat
"Can anyone point me to what he said about this 10 years ago, and what steps he took?"
Not that far back is this any use!
Gordon Brown, Mansion House speech, 17 Jun 2004 wrote:
"I want us to do even more to encourage the risk takers"
Gordon Brown, CBI, 5 Jun 2006 wrote:
"Last year we set out radical proposals for changing the way we regulate: minimising the administrative burdens of regulation; and ensuring that the realities of regulation, as you experience them on the ground, are transformed -- by moving away from the old blanket approach, of 100 per cent form-filling and 100 per cent inspection that is inefficient and wasteful of your time, to a new approach based on risk? And I believe, too, we should consider how we can continue to extend our risk-based approach, applying the concept of risk not just to the enforcement of regulation, but also to the design and indeed to the decision as to whether to regulate at all? And we will take the fight on deregulation to Europe."
Gordon Brown, CBI, 28 Nov 2006 wrote:
"Progress if we invest in and nurture the skills of the future, advance with light touch regulation? stability through a predictable and light touch regulatory environment? I will be honest with you, many who advised me including not a few newspapers, favoured a regulatory crackdown."
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#130 Neil_Small147
#132 oldnat
I agree with both of you, but these are certainly a lot better than nothing as they are the first largish Scottish sample (1266 adults) we've had for a couple of months - compared to some Scottish samples down in the 60s for UK polls.
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#137 cynicalHighlander
Wow! Not that he's likely to admit it, or even be asked it by anyone from auntie.
It might be worth emailing to the party HQ or MP of your choice with the suggestion that they form the basis for a query at next PMQs.
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#135 rabbiehippo
'You cannot build the future of the whole of the United Kingdom, people's pensions, the future of Scotland, people's savings and people's jobs, on a volatile commodity," he said. '
Not for 60 million people of the UK but 5 million Scots who knows how far it would go, certainly better than on financiers dealing in fictional assets. The more one reads one has to start to question his sanity.
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#136 Brownedov
Thanks for that! I'll store that for the next time you're not available. This time, I'll happily wait till you find the time.
#137 cynicalHighlander
Silly me - I should have realised all along that he was calling for stricter regulation. I never learned to speak Labour!
You'll also be able to explain to me what Brown really meant when he said on Friday "We have got to deal with that problem ? a problem we did not know about that started in America but a problem we have to deal with," he said."
I learned about the US sub-prime problem watching US TV last summer - damn I should have told him!
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#134 oldnat
If you want a trip down memory lane, you could do worse than this website's reporting of the creation of the FSA in the 1998 Queen's Speech: Financial markets get stronger super regulator, which starts with: "The Financial Services Authority, the financial markets' new super regulator, will be given greater power, to create a safer environment for investors and tackle market abuse."
Hasn't that worked out well.
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#134 oldnat
Not quite such a "golden oldie", but his pre-Budget statement in December 2003 is well summarised in this website's Brown to slash business red tape which begins: "The Chancellor, Gordon Brown, has pledged to repeal a raft of business regulations as part of an effort to foster an enterprise culture.
In his pre-Budget statement to Parliament, Mr Brown said he had identified 147 regulations which would be abolished or reformed."
Another cunning plan.
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#141 oldnat
The problem is himself and the nulabour "It wisnae me party". If this is British democracy heaven help us and future generations.
The paragraph relating to "risk" in full
'So same way that we made the Bank of England independent of government we made our competition authorities independent of government and created one of the most open competition regimes in the world. And although not quite as public a symbol as the Bank of England independence - but unique in terms of labour?s history none the less - we have cut capital gains tax substantially. Even with other priorities to finance ? not least the NHS - we have cut capital gains tax from 40 pence down to 10 pence for long term business assets and in budget after budget I want us to do even more to encourage the risk takers, those with ambition, to turn their ideas into reality and make the most of their talents.'
taken from here.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/1534.htm
why can't beeb use BBcode.
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Brownedov and cynicalhighlander
If I didn't know you better, I'd think you were being sarcastic about our glorious PM.
You must be wrong.
Brown "said he was "angry" that banks were not being supervised across borders, 10 years since he first argued his case."
Where is a responsible Unionist when you need one?
Expat, Dick_Whittington, derekbarker - Your Country Needs You!
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#141 oldnat
You're welcome. BTW my notes re Excel above only apply to web pages created by Excel, which seems to be how the Sunday Times receive them from YouGov, as they have published this type of detail before. The extra detail is hidden in the TD table cell specifiers and only available for use or display by Excel itself. It doesn't apply to YouGov PDFs.
#144 cynicalHighlander
Too true.
They do use BBcode for HYS but the blogging parser is open source that supports a lot of real HTML.
#145 oldnat
LOL - haven't heard from the brig. lately either.
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Murphy on Glenrothes
"Jim Murphy, the Secretary of State for Scotland, turned up the heat in a battle that has been dominated by the conflict between Labour and the SNP by declaring: "We started behind and we are still underdogs."
I find a bucket of water useful, to cool things down.
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The Independent (source of my previous quote) seems more than a little confused about the Labour candidate.
"Ms Roy, a head teacher at Mr Brown's former school, is up against the SNP's Peter Grant, the leader of the local council."
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As promised, I have done some analysis of the figures in the YouGov Scottish poll. My own take on Glenrothes is that voters are much more likely to play it in line with the SP plurality seats, where the changes since 2007 are Lab +13.03%, SNP +38.57%, LibDem -11.29%, Con -3.09%, Other +55.94%.
Applying that to the Glenrothes boundaries, and the 48% turnout which I've predicted before as the likely maximum, that would double the SNP's notional majority from 2007 to about 1,800.
OTOH, if the seat really is seen as make or break for the Government, it would be more likely to play in line with Westminster voting intention, in which case the changes since 2005 are Lab -2.50%, SNP +66.44%, Con +23.84%, LibDem -52.27%, Other -54.08%.
Applying that to Glenrothes, with the same 48% turnout, that would be enough for Labour to hang on to the seat by over 3,000 votes.
In both cases, if there is no substantial squeeze effect, the Tories and LibDems would save their deposits in both cases.
As well as squeeze effects, the above ignores all the other by-election factors which almost always punish an incumbent government, so I do think there's still all to play for. I'm also rather with Neil_Small147's #119 that Mandelson's return to the front pages will not be an unalloyed asset and sneckedagain's #123 that polling may have ended at the same time as any Brown "bounce".
Overall, I'm in agreement with oldnat's #118 that the SNP should be cautiously optimistic.
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There's an email doing the rounds at the moment showing a quotation from Thomas Jeffereson. The short version is that banks should never be given the power to control the economy.
How true.
And how true that nearly all politicians, and certainly the main parties, decried regulation until not so long ago.
Maybe they could all come up one by and explain why they were against regulation.
And I mean ALL the main parties.
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Sorry for a double posting, but someone better tell the BBC webmaster that the clocks went back an hour!!
Look at the post times.
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#145 oldnat
'Brown "said he was "angry" that banks were not being supervised across borders, 10 years since he first argued his case."
Maybe he should start listening to the people of these lands and remembering what he has said in the past.
Mansion house 1998. take note. sorry about caps copy/paste
'FIRST STABILITY.
IN TODAY'S DEREGULATED, LIBERALIZED FINANCIAL
MARKETS, THE KEYNESIAN FINE TUNING OF THE PAST
WHICH WORKED IN RELATIVELY SHELTERED, CLOSED
NATIONAL ECONOMIES AND WHICH TRIED TO EXPLOIT A
SUPPOSED LONG-TERM TRADE-OFF BETWEEN INFLATION AND
UNEMPLOYMENT, WILL SIMPLY NOT WORK. NEITHER CAN
STABILITY BE DELIVERED IN WHOLLY DEREGULATED
MARKETS THROUGH A RIGID APPLICATION OF FIXED
MONETARY TARGETS, AS WAS ATTEMPTED IN THE 80S.
http://archive.treasury.gov.uk/press/1998/p102_98.html
'IT WAS CONTROVERSIAL IN 1976 WHEN ONE LABOUR PRIME
MINISTER SAID WE COULD NOT SPEND OUR WAY OUT OF A
RECESSION.
I SAY TONIGHT WE CANNOT SIMPLY SPEND OUR WAY
THROUGH A RECOVERY EITHER.
SO PRUDENCE WILL BE OUR WATCHWORD.'
'SO WE NEED A NEW APPROACH IN BRITAIN TO RISK-
TAKING THAT WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF
ENTREPRENEURS AND RAISE THE GROWTH AND SURVIVAL
RATE OF SMALL BUSINESSES. WE MUST DESTROY THE
BARRIERS THAT HOLD US BACK - FISCAL, REGULATORY,
ECONOMIC, CULTURAL - AS A MATTER OF URGENCY. AND
WE WILL CONSIDER THE MEASURES WE MUST TAKE.'
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OK I admit it, the GERS data on the Scottish deficit might have been wrong.
Jim Wallace in the Guardian has better figures
"Nor has the case for independence been helped by the falling oil price. At $120 per barrel, accountants Grant Thornton calculated a Scottish budget surplus of 4.4bn. Running the same economic model with oil at $75 per barrel produces a deficit of 800m. Even if the balance is made more favourable by a price rise, following Opec's decision to cut production, dependency on a yo-yo oil price isn't a recipe for financial stability."
GERS said that the deficit was "2.7 billion (2.1 per cent of Scottish GDP)", but the ex-Deputy first Minister confirms that even with the lower cost of oil the deficit would only be 800m ( 0.62 per cent of Scottish GDP).
Wallace says "In a time of financial crisis, stability isn't something to be tossed aside." - so why would we want the instability of the 2.7% UK deficit?
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#150 Neil_Small147
Every single party signed up to "light touch regulation".
10 Brownie points to the first one that can demonstrate that they spoke out (and voted) for regulation of derivatives.
20 Brownie points to the first one that can demonstrate that they knew what derivatives were!
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European Defence Force
It's nice to see that John Hutton is not opposed to developing this.
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According to Atticus in the Times
Oh dear.Complain about this comment
154. At 11:21pm on 26 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote:
#150 Neil_Small147
Every single party signed up to "light touch regulation".
10 Brownie points to the first one that can demonstrate that they spoke out (and voted) for regulation of derivatives.
20 Brownie points to the first one that can demonstrate that they knew what derivatives were!
------------
And the results are:
Labour - nil points
Conservatives - nil points
Lib Dems - nil points
Vince Cable - 20 possibly 30 points
SNP - nil points
To be fair light touch regulation was probably - at first sight - the only option if they wanted banks to be competitive in the world. At least that what it seems to me.
153. At 11:11pm on 26 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote:
OK I admit it, the GERS data on the Scottish deficit might have been wrong.
OMG, don't let RE see that!
Personally, I never trust any economics based on a single commodity. The reason is that another commodity may be discovered /invented which negates the first one.
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156. At 00:04am on 26 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote:
According to Atticus in the Times
--------------------------------------------------------
good cartoons on that link as well.
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#157 Neil_Small147
Politically, the interesting scenario is that we have the SNP (obviously), the Tories (strategically), a senior Lib-Dem (inadvertently) all saying that Scotland can be economically independent, while only Labour are left talking Scotland down.
Which means that we can then move the debate onto the important bit - how does Scotland benefit most through all the possible constitutional arrangements that are available.
However, until a genuinely Scottish Labour Party emerges, UK Labour need to be continually hammered as the only genuinely anti-Scottish party in today's political climate.
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#149 - intriguing stuff.
Good to see some real analysis of the likely range of outcomes in Glenrothes. Although, it is rather damning that you have so little competition - especially from the national news media (who prefer generalities).
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#157 Neil_Small147
As an admirer of Cable's common sense approach, even I don't think he desrves more than 10 on oldnat's scale.
He did recognise early (2005) that credit was far too easy, but it wasn'r until Northern Rock that he began to realise that the regulatory system was lacking.
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#156 oldnat
Good link, but we couldn't have such frivolities while the Supreme Leader is doing his bit to save the world, could we?
Atticus' first sentence says it all, really: "Everybody is clear, if they know what's good for them, that it was bold Gordon Brown who saved the world from economic collapse (before rescuing Lois Lane from Lex Luthor)."
No wonder his frown's turned upside-down as the great Thomas Wright Waller would have put it.
Health warning: the links above are not for the faint-hearted!
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#159 oldnat
Astute comment, but getting it across to the electorate seems to be an uphill struggle, unhelped by the media's own agendas.
#160 pattymkirkwood
Thanks, but I think there are quite a few here sharing that view.
To understand what drives the print media, I don't believe you can do better than to study Waugh's great 1938 treatise on the subject, Scoop.
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123. The decision by the Scottish Government that all new build council housing from now cannot be sold cheap to tenants has persuaded a number of councils already to restart council housing building projects.
A primary aim of the right-to-buy scheme was to decrease state-managed rental housing and increase private ownership, empowering the individual and shrinking the involvement of the state.
The SNP are repeatedly showing themselves as preferring big, centralised government (in other words, they want to run everything). The new involvement in local decision-making through increases in centralised funding and the 'concordat', and then total centralisation of local funding under the LIT proposal are obvious examples.
The SNP are demanding more powers from Westminster while simultaneously taking more and more power from the communities. This is NOT good for democracy.
Remember to always challenge ALL government claims, including those from the SNP.
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#164 Reluctant-Expat
I agree with you to the extent that I would prefer social housing to be handled in the Swiss way with regulation and tax incentives on the "public" side and actual construction and management on the "private" side.
I also agree with sneckedagain's #123 that freeing up the funds is necessary. It was the UK government that restricted councils' use of the funds. Could they now be used in the way we would seemingly both prefer, or would that require further UK legislation?
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Brian....
They are silencing the analysts because they, do not want to listen or hear the forecast of that person...
~Dennis Junior~
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