HBOS and the theory of moral sentiments
It is, in truth, the only strategy carrying the prospect of success.
Alex Salmond says that, when he meets Lloyds TSB bosses, he will urge them to consider "enlightened self-interest".
Not, in other words, benevolence towards Scotland, or pity: concepts that, in any case, do not sit particularly easy in the world of commercial credit.
No, Mr Salmond will rely upon a pitch that stresses, to be blunt, that there is money to be made in Scotland or, at the very least, overheads to be saved.
A St Andrews graduate, the First Minister has plainly been reading his Adam Smith. Kirkcaldy's finest reminded us in "The Wealth of Nations" that: "Man has almost constant occasion for the help of his brethren and it is in vain for him to expect it from their benevolence only."
Smith further advised in the same work that, when dealing with the commercial world, "we address ourselves not to their humanity but to their self-love and never talk to them of our necessities but of their advantages."
I confess I have occasionally given comparable advice to young trainees seeking an opening in the decidedly rough trade of journalism.
Tell your prospective employer, I counsel, what you can do for them. They already know what they can do for you.
And so the First Minister will, quite rightly, present a business case to Lloyds TSB to maintain as many jobs and decision-making functions in Scotland as possible, should the take-over of HBOS go ahead.
His case has been prepared by the Scottish Government with support from the Council of Economic Advisers.
No supplicant, he - but rather a prospective partner, a stake-holder, stressing the expertise, cost base and financial network available in Scotland.
Is Mr Salmond's case weakened by the doubts he has cast on the merger, arguing in his party conference speech that it should not go ahead until there was an explanation as to whether the recapitalisation available from the UK Government is only available to the merged bank?
Frankly, I don't think so. For one thing, Mr Salmond has taken pains to stress his belief that Lloyds TSB has, to use his phrase, "behaved honourably".
For another, I expect he advised Lloyds TSB in advance that he would be making such remarks, understandably keeping them in the loop.
More to the point, though, we are dealing with serious players here.
They know that Mr Salmond's intuitive and financial position is to defend the Bank of Scotland, albeit in its current guise.
They know that he is entitled, indeed bound, to question the terms of a deal which has such a potential impact upon Scotland.
Let me be clear, here. I am not, repeat not, saying that Mr Salmond is going through the motions in raising questions about the deal. Far from it. He is posing legitimate questions.
At the same time, though, he is pursuing Scotland's interests, should the deal go through - which seems probable.
His leverage with Lloyds would be weakened if he condemned the merger outright.
In contrast, leaving open another door - a prospect he genuinely believes feasible, as do some senior business figures - merely indicates that he, too, is serious about this deal.
That is why Mr Salmond retains questions about the merger - but does not consider it appropriate to major on those issues in talks with Lloyds TSB today.
Lloyds TSB, I feel sure, understand that complex negotiations sometimes involve complex positions.
So, enlightened self-interest. But perhaps, just perhaps, Lloyds TSB will consider a further piece of advice from Adam Smith, from his "Theory of Moral Sentiments".
Smith reckons that "no benevolent man ever lost altogether the fruits of his own benevolence".
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~07~RS~)
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Can Alex please make up his mind as to what method of approach he considers most suitable?
I know the desired result is the same, and I support his efforts to try and retain jobs in Scotland.
But he is a little inconsistent:
2007 he did not want further regulation, now he does (although to be fair nearly everyone else thought the same)
Then he decries the "spivs" etc
Now he talks about honourable behaviour.
He has done far more - at least publicly - to seek a solution to the issues. But in my view he has been reactive, rather than proactive.
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in the event that the merger does go through, i can see no reson for it not to be called "THE HBOS LLOYDS TSB BANK".
if, as i have seen that the proposal is to name it "THE LLOYDS HALIFAX BANK", then the BOS and TSB will not exsist in name, and i cannot see how BANK of SCOTLAND notes can still be printed.
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Alex Salmond is a canny operator and there is no one on the current political scene I would trust more than him to do his best for Scotland.
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#1 "2007 he did not want further regulation"
Do you imagine that you persuade anyone of your viewpoint by deliberately misquoting the First Minister? The full quote is well-enough circulated by now, and your summary of it is disingenuous at the least.
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I am not convinced that the solution involves the creation of a mega banking/insurance/estate agent institution. I am an ex HBOS employee and the merger between BoS and Halifax was painful, and even when I left there was still an "us and them" attitude which bordered on the fractious. Introducing a third party into the equation does not strike me as being the most harmonious idea.
The very diversity of the business will also make it very hard to manage and oversee the risk management process. Just the thought of all the different IT systems screams one word - nightmare! Remember that BoS was already a group of companies; Lloyds TSB and Halifax likewise.
It is interesting that RBS group has divested itself of the Tesco brand, selling back to Tesco which raises capital. HBOS has the Sainsburys and though smaller the British Gas brand. I am surprised that this avenue has not been explored by HBOS.
Mr Salmond also has one big advantage over Mr Brown on this issue, as he once worked for RBS as an economist. I very much doubt that he has need of re-reading books written by Adam Smith, but there again it makes for pleasant reading compared to the current business pages from whichever media organisation you choose from.
I feel that the new merged entity is too much of a rushed job, and considered thought has not been applied. Unfortunately this is an often repeated characteristic of the Brown and Blair administrations. Also I doubt that contingency plans have been drawn up in the "what if" case scenario, that the new entity needs another bail out further down the line. It would be a comfort to know that all the debts had been identified and categorised by bands of toxicity, but i suspect that this is not the case.
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brian you wrote -
They know that he is entitled, indeed bound, to question the terms of a deal which has such a potential impact upon Scotland.
--------------------------------------------------------
by that reasoning, is it not up to the "toxit sub prime minister gordon brown" to explain the case for the merger going ahead
and not relying on the old "both banks want the merger to go ahead" comment, when it has such a potential impact on the economy of scotland.
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It seems that if anybody suggests an alternative ,or suggests there might be an alternative to the economic expertise of Brown and Darling, they must be wrong. Considering the state the economy of Britain was in, even before the current financial crisis, and the amount of debt Brown and Darling had amassed, I suspect they probably are not the best people to be deciding the future of Scotland's biggest financial institution. You have to believe that any solution muted by two incompetents of their stature must be the wrong solution. Maybe the shareholders of the respective institutions may have other ideas, though I suspect they will vote to take the cash and hope they can scarper with their capital nearly intact at a later date.
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Mr Salmond is doing what he was elected for, no more no less. He has been terribly lacking in any leadership qualities regarding this issue.
In my opinion his government have been an embarassment to Scotland regarding the HBOS takeover, they have shown themselves as unfit for the grown up world.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
The HBOS takeover is being pursued for purely political reasons rather than commercial ones. It's principal aim is the undermining of the case for independence by weakening the Scottish economy.
An assessment made by the former Treasurer of the Deutsche Bank ( a man with considerably more financial knowledge than the hapless and incompetent Brown/Darling duo) revealed that HBOS was viable as an independent entity and could be dealt with on the same basis as the other banks. The merger does not adequately deal with the liquidity problem of HBOS, the capital deficiency of LLoyds-TSB or the issues of market monopoly created by a large bank which will almost certainly result in massive job losses and poorer customer product ranges.
Furthermore the EU will doubtless order the breakup of the large bank as it violates competition laws.
The Labour Party's desperate action to destroy the case for independence looks set to rebound on it. They are heading for anihilation at the polls.
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#8 malice town
Strictly speaking he has no jurisdiction on this matter. This an UK government affair where decisions are made in London. He can only make representations about Scottish jobs.
It just serves to highlight the difficulties about devolution as a sort of halfway house of independence aka the West Lothian question. I suspect that at some point there will have to be some sort of transfer of fiscal power to Scotland from London.
Btw what about the leadership qualities of Scottish labour? I do not even know who replaced weewendy.
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Alex Salmond is between a rock and a hard place. Having bad-mouthed the merger, he finds himself sweet-talking Lloyds in a manner that must have the bankers privately sniggering at his discomfort.
I am sure Alex really wants to save the Scots jobs and to have an HQ in Edinburgh, but his main mission is to save what remains of SNP credibility.
A merged Lloyds-HBOS can, in theory, have their registered head office in Yokohama if they wish. They will choose the best deal on offer. That will be, in practice if not in name, in the City of London.
Why? Because Scotland's future status remains uncertain, and there can be few bankers left who want to take unnecessary risks! And the best shows are in London.
Alex will take what he can get. Meanwhile, nobody in Scotland is enjoying the sight of our FM almost grovelling to the sort of people we hold in contempt. But he has to do it.
The result will possibly be a dressed-up, PR-led package that allows Lloyds their London HQ and also gives Alex some sort of nominal "important" function left in Edinburgh.
We just have to swallow our pride and stop pretending that there is any independence to banking in Scotland. Probably there never will be.
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Brian,
How is Oh hEck going to enlighten Lloyds TSB? They will already know what Scotland has to offer from their discussions with HBOS which operates here.
Oh hEck is all about being seen to be doing something, it is all about the impression he leaves on an unsuspecting public not about what Scotland needs.
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I was idly thinking about what would be happening if Jack McConnell were still First Minister.
Would he be engaging the senior people in Lloyds on behalf of Scotland or would he be slavishly following the party line and keeping his head down?
Then I thought that if there was no SNP Govt. in Scotland and Labour were still in control at Holyrood, Brown and Darling might themselves be championing the "rescue" of HBOS in order to get the credit for doing so and to dish the SNP. But of course they can't do that now because the SNP would probably get most of the credit for forcing the issue, so B and D have to go along with their original idea even if their subsequent injection of cash to every bank makes that merger less essential, and less attractive(to HBOS AND Lloyds shareholders) as well as to people in Scotland who can foresee the closures of Bank of Scotland branches etc.
This issue will resonate in Scotland long after the Glenrothes by-election campaign.
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#8 MaliceTown
'World credit loss '£1.8 trillion' Which equates to about a 1/6 of the Worlds GDP.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7694275.stm
'Coface pulls cover for Baugur's UK companies'
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article4916801.ece
The UK has now been downgrade to the level of Ireland's some endorsement of nulabour's 'Brown an Co'
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#8 MaliceTown "(Mr.Salmond's) government have been an embarassment to Scotland regarding the HBOS takeover."
I have to completely disagree. In fact I cannot get my head around this comment.
Alex Salmond has acted in a rational and principled way from the outset. He has made clear that his preference is for an independent HBOS. This would be better because take-over would threaten jobs at HBOS and, crucially, impact upon the huge number of associated support services in Edinburgh due to the loss of HQ status.
However, it is not within Mr. Salmond's power to prevent takeover. Therefore he has also to make the case to Lloyds TSB that any emergent super-bank should retain jobs and decision making in the Scottish capital. He is doing this because it is in Scotland's best interests.
The embarassment should be felt by the UK government who seem to actively want to push through the merger regardless of implications for Scottish jobs and who seek to play politics with the issue by making out that Scotland has been saved from disaster by 'English gold'.
Brown and Darling have yet to explain why merger is a pre-requisit of government financial support. They have yet to account for the substantial part they have played in getting us all into this mess in the first place.
An independent Scotland would have been able to use competition law to maintain HBOS as its own entity and to use oil revenue funds to underwright financial support to Scotland's financial sector.
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GORDON BROWNS legacy for the residents of the UK.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders has estimated that 45,000 homes in the UK will be repossessed in 2008, up from 27,100 last year.
The Bank's Financial Stability Report has estimated that 500,000 homeowners in the UK are in negative equity as a result of a 13% fall in UK property prices since their peak in October last year.
and he wants people to vote for him.
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The banking crises fully demonstrates to everyone, apart from the hard line nationalists, that the Scottish economy is fully integrated with that of the British economy and independence is shown to be a nonsense. The recent global difficulties have amply demonstrated that it is only within the Britain that world events and strategies can be influenced.
Apart from GB himself it is only Vince Cable that seems to have ideas of what to do at this level. The Tories are evidently not up to this as they are caught up with their own local difficulties and wee Eck seems to make lots of comments but really contributes very little to the solutions.
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Salmondella, its all about doing his best for Scotland and those who live here,
You have a problem with that?
Someting wrong with wanting the best deal for your country and its people?
You obviously have a less sensitive nose than the First Minister or me, if you cannot smell a fishy smell in the rush to break rules to create a mega bank which is against EU policy.
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12. At 4:05pm on 28 Oct 2008, brigadierjohn.
i suggest you stop reading expats posts because you are starting to rant the same way as he does.
one thing that i have noticed, is that none of the new labour in scotland msps are talking about the merger and the merits/de-merits of it.
have they received their orders from london.
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14. At 4:15pm on 28 Oct 2008, greenRiordan.
good post, and so true.
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Brian,
This is a most welcome post!!
Not because you seem to be supporting the actions of our FM, but, given so many recent posts, you have (temporarily, at least) shed the clothing of a unionist/labourist apologist!!
May we have many such posts in the future!
And may we have a blog soonest on the utter bankruptcy of the FibDem leader, TweedledumScott, in his efforts today to try and steal the limelight (with an already failed argument) from the FM and his meeting with the Lloyds Board!
The argument for 'saving' BOS was lost years ago when that managament (and names can be named) sold out to Halifax. At that point, and independent Scottish Bank with a proud pedigree was lost and it would serve the populus a great deal if TScott and his minions would do the decent thing and recognise that!! What our FM is engaged with is a damage limitation exercise and there is not another political party at Holyrood who would have the slightest interest in doing the same in a UK Parliament.
The real downside of devolution is that it has allowed 'wannabe' politicians such as 'wee bendy' and 'tweedledum/dee' the opportunity to make some noises on a larger scale. And the meeting between Scott and Murphy today just proves that!!
And then there's AGray - bit let me rest there:)
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#10 Brodick1
Excellent first post, and I agree with almost all you say.
Had the merger saved depositors' assets without the need for public funds, it would probably have been the leastworst option and the EU competition rules which prevented it before could have been avoided on the "not a suicide pact" principle.
As it is now proposed, it is not only politically motivated but will likely cause significant job losses both in Scotland and the rest of the UK, at a time when all Mr Prudence's golden rules are being ditched in a panic to stem rising unemployment.
At the same time, the quest to root out the canker of "sub-prime" lending will have the unintended consequence of reducing High Street competition for normal commercial business which can only delay any eventual recovery from the slump Capt. Darling seems to admit we're now in.
About the only sensible alternative to cancelling the merger would be for the government to be given responsibility for the H bit of HBOS and the TSB bit of Lloyds TSB in exchange for a major shareholding in a new, toxic-free Lloyds BOS, with HTSB being nationalised aiming for eventual remutualisation.
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#18 angusscot
"The banking crises fully demonstrates to everyone, apart from the hard line nationalists, that the Scottish economy is fully integrated with that of the British economy and independence is shown to be a nonsense."
First time I've heard Cameron accused of being a "hard line nationalist"!!!!
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#18 angusscot
I disagree entirely, I think the crisis has shown that the UK is no longer a bastion of stability; we really need to be more integrated into the Eurozone.
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#18. angusscot
'The recent global difficulties have amply demonstrated that it is only within the Britain that world events and strategies can be influenced.'
Could you please explain? I certainly wouldn't want Brown or Darling as my financial advisers.
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#18 angusscot
"The banking crises fully demonstrates to everyone, apart from the hard line nationalists, that the Scottish economy is fully integrated with that of the British economy and independence is shown to be a nonsense."
What it shows is that the world economy is strongly interconnected, and that Scotland needs to be protected by a wider political union.
But why do you want it to be limited to a small country like the UK, rather than the whole of Europe?
"hard line" describes those who are so committed to their political stance that they imagine that "everyone" shares their view (other than members of the party they dislike) that the other party's views are "nonsense"
Frankly such views from any party's supporters are unlikely to persuade anyone.
However, if it makes you feel good, carry on.
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#20 U13282939
LOL but I think you're overstating the case a little. Certainly there's less open-mindedness than before but not quite down to R-E's level yet.
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Regardless of all the arguments, since when was HBOS a purely Scottish institution?
Some people tend to forget the word "Halifax".
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1. At 1:46pm on 28 Oct 2008, Neil_Small147 wrote:
?2007 he did not want further regulation?
I am fairly sure I remember when this particular red herring entered the political debate.
I believe it was a london reporter who in full entrapment mode, asked AS and I paraphrase:
?If the UK has to run the FSA with a cost of £250MpA (now over £300MpA), how could Scotland afford to do it.?
AS responded in the way others have correctly recorded, but the comment was directed at the cost of the operation not its remit.
Years ago the DTI and BoE used to regulate all insurance and banking companies, I know, I had on occasion to visit their offices and explain our company?s performance, risk position and capital adequacy. It was a rigorous operation run by sharp minded civil servants within a not particularly complicated legal framework.
I would beg to suggest it was cheaper and a good deal more effective than the FSA we now have and who have admitted their recent failure to properly regulate the banks.
Of course the real failure was the dimantling of the supporting legal framework by the US and UK Governments in their headlong rush to deregulate.
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#18 angusscot
"The banking crises fully demonstrates to everyone, apart from the hard line nationalists, that the Scottish economy is fully integrated with that of the British economy and independence is shown to be a nonsense."
It took the banking crisis to show you that Scotland's economy is fully integrated with the British economy? Really?
I think everyone, including those nasty nationalists, were aware of this already. Exactly how does the Scottish economy having relationships with the rest of the UK economy result in independence being "nonesense"? Do you think trade would just come to a halt, or could it be that the dynamic would change instead?
As you have said many companies are multinantionals, why does that mean the union is a necessity? Does it not mean that they can also trade between the Scottish/English border?
"The recent global difficulties have amply demonstrated that it is only within the Britain that world events and strategies can be influenced."
What effect has Britain had on global strategies during the crisis exactly? Do you mean GB's supposed saviour of the world bit, passing someone else's idea off as his own to guarantee up to £50,000 in individual accounts?
Forgotten who was in charge of the economy the past decade have you?
"Apart from GB himself it is only Vince Cable that seems to have ideas of what to do at this level. The Tories are evidently not up to this as they are caught up with their own local difficulties and wee Eck seems to make lots of comments but really contributes very little to the solutions."
GB and VInce Cable are not comparable on the banking issue an the economy. GB had ideas at this level no doubt, he had a major role in how we arrived at this juncture.
As far as AS, he has done all he can within the framework imposed on him and his position, can the same be said of GB? What else do you suggest AS could have done?
From reading your previous posts, you're more concerned with Britain's perceived influence on world affairs during this economic crisis, advocating the need for the union.
Without the union you think Scotland would have no little or no influence on world affairs and its own as a result?
Scotland, as an independent country within the European Union would have all the influence it needs on both world affairs and those at home, and would have been able to take its own measures, for better or worse, to resolve the current economic and banking crisis.
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18 AngusScot
Indeed the Scottish economy is fully integrated with the British one which is fully integrated with the European one.
What's your point?
We all know the whole world economy is now fully integrated. How else would duff Gordon have been able to borrow the £37billion from China to "save" our banking system.
Are you suggesting that this means that Germany or Gabon or NewZealand are not independent nation states?
What is most surprising about a lot of the stuff on these blogs is the infantile paucity of much if the unionist "arguement".
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Chick Young is a wimp
Now in Ayrshire Junior fitba, the journos would simply have responded in kind against the Parliamentarians.
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# 18 Angusscot "The banking crises fully demonstrates to everyone that the Scottish economy is fully integrated with that of the British economy and independence is shown to be a nonsense."
I am afraid that you have misunderstood the real significance of the times in which we are living.
What the current crisis demonstrates is that the old market versus state debates are dead. Each is dependent upon the other and public and private sectors in any economy are deeply interconnected.
In addition we have seen just how interdependent ALL national level economies are especially at the level of banking and finance. Britain is no more rational an economic unit than is Scotland.
Politics is no longer about left and right but about democratisation versus centralisation. New Labour have always had a strong centralising tendency. Blair saw the Scottish Parliament as a glorified parish council designed to contain nationalist sentiment within a strong UK state with a client Scottish Labour Party in perpetual control.
The movement for Scottish independence, of which the SNP is part, is inspired by concepts of democratisation and empowerment.
Which side are you on ?
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#29 Neil_Small147
"Some people tend to forget the word "Halifax""
Well, Halifax is the capital of Nova Scotia = New Scotland.
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One of your best bloggs to date I would say Brian. You lay out Salmond's delicately balanced position with Lloyds/HBOS and the greater Scottish community exactly as it appears.
I think #10, Brodick1's point re this being a political rather than economic move is not only valid but becoming more obvious by the day.
I also agree that the truth will rebound on Labour, arguably a process already begun in some quarters.
Labour really needed the Glenrothes by election a few days ago, by Nov 6th their chance of an upset will have gone.
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i must agree with "making history"
we must all know, that Mr Salmond has little power compared to the government in Westminster, Gordon Brown could have done he's job in saving HBOS from being sold, but I guess from he's side of the story, "at least it was a british bank"
Salmond can help the bank but he would have no control to stop the bank going bust, thats why it was bought by Lloyds TSB
he says if Scotland was independent HBOS wouldn't be in this mess, well.....we dont know...that what he says, but maybe the bank could have been saved in an independent Scotland by the scottish government...SNP are a strong government and they never give up...i'm not saying there perfect, as no one is perfect...but they are more close and caring to Scotland than the other politcal parties in Scotland...(apart from green party)...
people say (esp. unionists) that Scotland would fall into recession in 2010 if she became independent....with all of Scotland's recouces and being 1 of the main economies in Europe, I doubt that... even Cameron agreed that Scotland could go alone!
LETS not forget, that the IMF and the EU are there if Scotland needs a little help...which is unlikely....it is more easy to help a country like Scotland than a country like the USA, France China!
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#33 oldnat
Good link, but you really ought to lighten up and look on the bright side. When was the last time you heard a BBC journo label a Labour MSP "an absolute disgrace"?
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#36. BrianHill wrote:
Labour ... Glenrothes by election ... by Nov 6th their chance of an upset will have gone.
Now that's more like a confident nationalist!
Remember Labour are defending a >10,000 majority.
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#35 Browndov.
I know that one, I have friends who live there.
#31 scottinnotts
"Scotland, as an independent country within the European Union would have all the influence it needs on both world affairs"
I do recall Alex Salmond sending letters out to quite a lot of countries re nuclear issues. Didn't get much of a response nor did he influence anything.
Get real. An independent Scotland would have very little influence in world or even european affairs.
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Actually I am not exercised by whether an independent Scotland would have much influence on World or European affairs.
It would have maximum influence on Scottish affairs which is the main point.
Get real.
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#40 Neil_Small147
"An independent Scotland would have very little influence in world or even european affairs."
Scotland has zero influence at the moment.
scottinnotts talked of "all the influence it (Scotland) needs".
How much influence do you want Scotland to have?
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#40.
Neil_Small147.
"Get real. An independent Scotland would have very little influence in world or even european affairs."
Scotland would have greater influence in the European Union. By default Scotland would also have greater influence in world affairs.
Neil, what happened? You appear to be resorting back to the old arguements. "Scotland will have no influence as an Independent country". You give the impression that Britain currently looks after Scotlands best interests! May I remind you that Britain could never look after Scotlands best interests nor use her influence to benefit Scotland... there is also Northern Ireland, Wales and England to consider. Therefore Britain's attention will always be divided and her priorities never one hundred percent for the Scottish people.
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#40 Neil_Small147
"Scotland, as an independent country within the European Union would have all the influence it needs on both world affairs"
As part of the EU Scotland would be able to avail itself of the mechanisms in place to affect European affairs, just like Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands etc. can. Also within the EU Scotland can have an affect on world affairs through the EU as a whole, not as an individual nation.
#41 sneckedagain and #42 oldnat seemed to have understood what I meant.
More importantly, as has been said, Scotland would have direct control over its own affairs, able to tailor olicy to suit its own citizens needs.
How influential do you think the UK really is on world or european affairs these days, our position in the world is not what it once was?
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#40 Neil_Small147:
You may be interested to read the following article from that hotbed of zealous nationalism, the Economist. It perceives Ireland to have a fair amount of influence - What is it about Ireland?. If Ireland can have influence, why do you think Scotland could not?
And yes, for those saddle-sore horsemen of the apocalypse that have been skulking around Brian's blog lately, that's "insolvent" Ireland they're talking about!
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Give the greedy gets nothing. I say make them bankrupt,if the goverment wants to hand out money to anybody it should be the nhs.or if you lot worry to much about your bit of fake paper siting in a bank, full nationalisation of any bank it has to step in and help.
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Off topic but thought it might interest.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/5523,opinion,we-could-have-been-as-rich-as-norway
See # 267 # 268 by balhamu on NR's blog the responsibility of borrowing
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Good lord I've upset a few people!
I am absolutely in favour of Scotland having maximum influence in it's own affairs, that is not an issue at all.
Nor I am I naive enough to think that scottinnotts was expecting Scotland to be running the UN.
Influence in Europe - some but I get a feeling we will be saddled with the old UK image, and that will not be easy to shake off. That is unless a Scottish Government intends to sign up to absolutely everything to keep the eurocrats happy.
Influence in world affairs is less important, but I have read a few comments over the past months where the author seems to think we will having other countries looking up to us and thinking "wow!"
#43 The UK's interests are zero for all of us, since the interests are for politicians. That will never change.
Since Labour have never given us the promised referendum on EU constitution (or whatever they call it), would the Scottish Government do so?
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#48
Neil, maybe you would like to refer to the front page of this site and click on to the recent football match involving some MSP's.
It's only a game.....maybe no.
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#48 Neil_Small147
I don't think you upset anyone, but your comments certainly confused everybody!
Thanks for clarifying.
However, your last sentence seems a little confused still.
You talk about "Labour have never given us the promised referendum" and ask "would the Scottish Government do so?"
Presumably it would depend on which party formed the Scottish Government.
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#48 Neil_Small147
'but I have read a few comments over the past months where the author seems to think we will having other countries looking up to us and thinking "wow!"'
What comments have I made that gave you that impression?
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Labour has increased it's lead over the nats
from 5% to 10% and theres more to come.
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#52 derekbarker
I'm always interested in poll results, but no media are reporting what you say.
Are these internal Labour polls?
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#53
Oldnat.
I'm sure your up to date with the polls,
Oldnat, I wont lean to much on HBOS nor Iceland?
I give you an address from a wise-man.
Some hae meat' and canna eat'
and some wad hae meat' and
eat it' but we hae meat' and
we can eat' sae, let the lord be thankit.......
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Well done to Alex for trying. I can't imagine Nulab or any others lifting a finger for Scotland so heartfel thanks to Alex for this and all his efforts.
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I must congratulate Brian on his balanced take on Alex Salmonds position on having discussions with Lloyds TSB to try minimise the loss of jobs from what used to be a Scottish Bank.
Brian should understand that Independence supporters are not looking for preferential coverage of politics. We simply wish balance and a greater degree of neutrality by the Foreign Owned Media.
Lets not forget that Scotland shall have its own Broadcasters after Independence, and we really need input from ALL Scots, with the exception of Brown,Darling and Murphy. HE HE, just having a bit of fun.
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It seems my previous post on the latest poll is stuck in Mod Purgatory so here goes again.
From YouGov's latest Scottish Omnibus poll:
Westminster:
Labour 38% (+6% on Sep)
SNP 29% (-5%)
Con 10% (+3%)
LD 11% (-2%)
Holyrood Constituency:
Labour 31% (+5%)
SNP 39% (-3%)
Con 14% (+1%)
LD 12% (-3%)
Independence?:
Yes 31% (-3%)
No 53% (+3%)
(support for independence is stronger in 55+ age group and weakest in 18-34 group)
Who would you prefer to steer Scotland through this financial crisis:
Brown 42% (+16%)
Salmond 23% (-13%)
It seems the SNP did take the predicted hammering over their recent performances.
I also hope everyone saw my IMF economic growth figures that reported the UK economy grew more between 1990-2006 than the economies of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and Switzerland.
Note the inclusion of 3/4 of Salmond's new 'arc of prosperity'.
Of course, 2/3 of his first 'arc of prosperity' have now shown themselves as having the most fragile economies in Europe - Iceland needed to be rescued by the IMF (and now has 18% interest rates!) and Ireland was the first European nation to go into recession.
And on that note, I'm back to my in-tray.
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53. I met up with my Holyrood-employed buddy last weekend and she tells me the SNP do regular private polls ("almost monthly") on the public reception of Salmond's pro-independence efforts.
If people get animated about a speech/comment/claim, he does more.
If people are getting weary or annoyed, he quietens down.
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#51 scottinnotts
I wasn't referring to previous posts that you have made, but the hardcore nationalists, who much like their hardcore unionists will not listen to any rational argument.
#49 derekbarker
Has anyone got a tape of the match? It could be used whenever the MSPs or journalists concerned start moralising about unsportsmanship behaviour on the football field in the SPL.
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#57 Reluctant-Expat
I'm surprised you're so late to the party on this - I linked to it and we were discussing it last Sunday on the Silencing the analysts thread from my #116 onward. I know you usually only post during office hours but thought you would have mentioned it in your #164 response to sneckedagains #123, especially as that post discussed the poll.
It certainly shows some recovery from NuLab's summer trough, but the more recent ComRes poll suggests that may have been a blip in NuLab popularity for Great Britain as a whole as it was before the Mandy story got legs and for Scotland in particular before general awareness of the peculiar "campaigning" done in Glenrothes by Browns Mrs & Mr.
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We'll just have to take your word for that won't we , ExPat?
And we do , honest!
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#57 Reluctant-Expat - PS to my #60
I just noticed you got the Tory % wrong. You also show the PDF figures not the original more detailed XL figures. The correct figures are:
Westminster: Lab 37.9%, SNP 29.4%, Con 19.6%, LibDem 10.8%, Other 2.3%
Holyrood (plurality): SNP 39.4%, Lab 31.4%, Con 13.9%, LibDem 12.4%, Other 2.9%
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#40 Neil_Small
"Get real. An independent Scotland would have very little influence in world or even european affairs"
Just like the UK, for all our membership of the G8 and UN Secuirity Council, has very little influence in world or even European affairs. We don't even bother to ask how high? when America shouts jump!
Is it the fact that an independant Scotland would have marginally sless influence in the world than it actually currently does, that bothers you?
At least if we were independent we could advance our own opinions and policies (even if no-one else in the world cared to pay them any heed) instead of hanging on to America's shirt-tails crying, "Me too! Me too! Let me play please!" as is the current UK approach
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60. Still relying on polls with tiny samples then?
(Again, I remind you that I actually have a life and therefore no desire or need to trawl through endless claims and complaints posted around the clock by 4-5 obsessed Scottish nationalists.)
62. And? (Are you seriously trying to win a blog-point by saying the Labour/SNP gap is different by just 0.5% on one count? Who do you think cares?)
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Et tue, Norway? I see a top Norwegian politician is rubbishing Salmond's claims of similarity between his country and Scotland, and is quite angry that the SNP are trying to "adopt" Norway for themselves, while the Norwegians rather like their relationship with the whole UK. I supose it's just anti-Scottish media lies.
I see a top UK tax officer is rubbishing Salmond's LIT plan as a bit of a ludicrous farce. I suppose it's just anti-Scottish media lies.
I see the polls suggest Labour are closing in fast on Glenrothes. I suppose it's just anti-Scottish media lies.
Not a good day for the smug smirk - according to the anti-Scottish media liars.
So what's the truth? I don't know. I do know that I feel embarrassed for myself and for Scotland every time I see Salmond on TV these days.
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#62 Brownedov: I'm more of an XXL figure myself. I just can't squeeze into a PDF. But plurality I like.
I fear your are in danger of disappearing up your own cross-references (see #60) which I just can't follow.
Please try more English, with less jargon and simple figures. You have been known to make sense, even to those outwith the Einstein Loop.
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#65 brigadier
I wish you would go back to your former reasonable style of writing - ie without the sneers.
Buried in your post there may be some reasonable points, as there can be in Expat's.
Currently the pair of you are coming across as the Ross and Brand of this blog :-)
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#64 Reluctant-Expat
Still relying on bluster and misinformation, I see. If you'd actually read the comments on the thread upon which you commented, you'd have noticed that the tiny Scottish sample was the first thing I reported.
It's odd that you round up the figures when the Times still has the detailed ones on its website. Funnier still that the rounding is in favour of your chums. I'll leave others to wonder whether you'd have rounded if they weren't. The difference does represent more than 5% of the gap, which is not insignificant.
The tiny ComRes Scottish sample doesn't apply to their Great Britain sample, which was quite large enough to show the downturn in NuLab support overall.
You're also back to your old trick of trying to compare apples with pears in your quoted change %s on the "financial crisis" question. In September, the question was about "help[ing] Scottish people in their everyday lives". The October question also included a Cameron option, splitting the anti-Labour vote.
Perhaps even more interesting given that it's been in the news lately is that they didn't ask about LIT this time, so the latest we have is still from the September poll: Support 46%, Oppose 31%, Don't know 23%.
I was away at the time of the poll and so not quick enough to get the XL details.
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#65 brigadier
I've been looking for a source for your story of the Norwegian politician.
I hope it wasn't Saera Khan :-)
Can you provide a name or even where you read this?
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If the merged bank intends to abandon the brand of "Bank of Scotland" whilst acquiring all of the assets of HBOS plc, then there should be some measure of compulsion for the enlarged group to see that brand to any appropriate entity.
In terms of business sense, given that there is already a legal distinction between Lloyds TSB Bank plc and Lloyds TSB Scotland plc, there is no reason why the group could not trade as Lloyds TSB in England and Wales, etc., whilst adopting the style of Bank of Scotland north of the border - possibly [though I would prefer not] sharing the black horse logo to acknowledge the filiation of the banks.
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65. brigadierjohn
'The markets are clear: Britain is mutton dressed up as lamb'
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/29/economy-labour-recession-gordon-brown
'Gordon Brown has no doubt who is to blame for all this: the irresponsible bankers who invested unwisely in all those US sub-prime mortgages during the boom years. Britain, he insists, is being sucked down by global forces beyond the control of a government doing its level best to help. Not all of this is piffle - although much of it is.'
Must make you proud to be British.
Summary
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00421/cartoon-385_421534a.jpg
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#66 brigadierjohn
Point taken. XL= Microsoft Excel; PDF = Adobe Portable Document Format.
But plurality I like.
I thought you would as it puts the UK bottom of the EU democracy league.
Sorry for too many references, but the point was that expat himself deigned to spare some time out of his busy "life" to comment on a post on the thread I mention which actually discussed the poll he has now posted here twice.
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19. DisgustedDorothy:
"Salmondella, its all about doing his best for Scotland and those who live here,
You have a problem with that?.....You obviously have a less sensitive nose than the First Minister than me....."
Dorothy
My nose may not be as sensitive as yours but my eardrums are bleeding by the constant banging of that Independence drum..... it's oor oil - bang bang; look at those other wee countries aint they good - bang bang; no I don't mean the bankrupt wee country, the other wee countries bailing out their banks with loadsamoney - bang bang; well obviously not all of them just the really good wee countries - bang bang; we'll get rid of student debt, introduce LIT, increase police numbers by 1000, reduce class sizes - bang, crash wallop, splutter....about turn
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#67 oldnat: No sneering intended. I noted some points from the media and anticipated replies in the usual SNP format. You're free to put your own spin on anything of course, even to the extent of comparing honest people who highlight inconvenient truths (or untruths) with a pair of millionaire morons.
If you ever feel the need to ignore style and address substance...
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#69 oldnat: The politician is Jonas Gahr Store, Foreign Minister, Norway. The article is by John Robertson, Scottish Daily Mail. Even allowing for spin and bias, it appears to be a solid source. And before you pigeon-hole me, I do read a broad spectrum of the papers!
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#73 salmondella
That was your 10th post. I think we're all quite clear that you are against the SNP and against independence.
You have never made a single comment about what you are in favour of.
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73. salmondella
I don't think it's 'wee' countries its more like 'wee' minds need to open up and realise that money is not the panacea to resolve all ills.
'Falling oil production 'is greater threat to Britain than terrorism'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3277825/Falling-oil-production-is-greater-threat-to-Britain-than-terrorism.html
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While I'm off on my tangent about Salmond's ever-changing 'arcs of prosperity', I thought I'd examine the Norwegian economy if you took the oil out of the equation.
Scotland has little in common with Norway when it comes to oil (smaller production levels, we have no fund and we'd have never enjoyed our level of public spending if we did) so let's see how we compare 'non-oil' wise.
Going by this graph showing Norway's non-oil budget balance, it turns out that, even with sky-high taxes, Norway's mainland economy has still been in almost continual deficit by an average of 5% of GDP, clearly far higher than the UK.
The entire Norwegian economy, so admired by Salmond and the only one to be in both 'arcs of prosperity', has been propped up by oil all along.
How is this an economic model worth following?
Is there any small economy out there that has had stronger growth than the UK, is not propped up by oil or aid, and is not currently bankrupt/deep in recession? Ok, there is Luxembourg......
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#71 cynicalHighlander: Thanks for that, even if I'm not sure why you addressed it to me. I have been saying for years that the economy is floating on debt. But the people blaming Brown are those who supped at the trough of excess and cheered him on - bankers, shareholders, house-buyers, consumers of luxury goods, those who holidayed on credit, built decking, overstretched themselves.
It's easy to say NOW that Brown should have said: "Stop all this fun, patch up your troosers, sup gruel, hard times are coming."
We all knew, deep down, that this was coming, had to come. So we all share the blame.
We didnae ken, is the cry today. Well folks, ye ken noo!
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#65 brigadierjohn
"I see a top UK tax officer is rubbishing Salmond's LIT plan as a bit of a ludicrous farce."
I think that you're looking through the telescope from the wrong end, and that SNP HQ will bless the Thunderer's Local income tax is pie in the sky for handing them a brilliant weapon to use in Glenrothes re NuLab's incompetence and pretence of "joined-up government".
The key quote seems to be: "HMRC officials went farther and one senior source said: 'This is pie in the sky. The logistical arrangements for collecting this tax would be incredible. Introducing changes to the personal allowance in September took months and months and this could take even longer.'"
Yet the Scotland Act 1998 begins: "An Act ... to provide for the variation of the basic rate of income tax in relation to income of Scottish taxpayers in accordance with a resolution of the Scottish Parliament ..." This was introduced and supported by a NuLab UK government.
So, after 10 years as Chancellor and more than a year as PM, "Duff" Gordon has been responsible for spending countless millions of public pounds on HMRC computer systems which aren't just insecure, as we've long known, but are most certainly not fit for purpose, either. No wonder the hapless Capt. Darling has been trying to head the process off if he knows that his own department is too incompetent to collect LIT.
A shame for NuLab given that the latest opinion poll on LIT shows that 60% of those who have an opinion on it are in favour.
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68. "The difference does represent more than 5% of the gap, which is not insignificant."
It IS insignificant if you say what the difference really is....0.5%...instead of trying to spin it as "5% of the gap"!
"The October question also included a Cameron option, splitting the anti-Labour vote."
How does this earn you a blog-point? Even adding Cameron's score to Salmond's would still leave Salmond far behind Brown.
The question asked who, out of Brown/Cameron/Salmond, is most trusted to steer Scotland through this crisis - Salmond scored 19% less than Brown.
Here's an idea:
1. You go back and read all your posts.
2. You realise how much of your life you have wasted on writing so much waffle that will only be read by 8-10 people.
3. You switch your computer off.
4. You then go out for a walk in the old town or take a drive into those beautiful snow-capped mountains just down the road.
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Brigadier,
It appears that yourved Westminster Government has managed to reduce the UK's ratings into the exact frame of our Irish Cousins as far as credit ratings go. Of course the UK has exterior debts of 1.47 Trillion.
Still I suppose that doesnt preclude you from standing in your lounge in your striped pyjamas singing God Save the Queen, Because nothing will save your Gordy Brown from the wrath of the people of the Three Nations.
Isnt it nice to have PlaidCymru up here fighting for Scottish Independence. I am sure once the fight up here is finished after Independence, we Scots can then volunteer to assist our Welsh Cousins do the exact same. Will you be on those forums as well from your home in England.
Incidently we Scots will hold a referendum to decide if LIZ shall be afforded the title of Queen of Scots. Personally I really dont care, but unlike the Westminster System I will get to decide.
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## 74 & 75 brigadierjohn
I never thought you were a millionaire !
Thanks for the reference.
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#73 Welcome to Broon and Bust!
My bank account is clearly more sensitive than your cooncil wages!
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#65.
John.
Hello there John,
Your comment would be far better without the "I suppose it's just anti-Scottish media lies." line being repeated. It's not clever, it actually does nothing for you. I thought you were someone who enjoys reasonable debates and discussions?
Well back to your post. Norway plus several other countries may well have already weighed up the pro's and con's of Scottish Independence for themselves. However who will decide Scottish Independence? The Scottish people or leaders abroad? After Independence Scotland will have a choice of many routes. Ireland, Norway are several countries the Scottish National Party uses as examples. Each with their own benefits which Scotland can aspire to. The Norwegian politician should accept that Scotland may become Independent and we may choose to use Norway as something to aspire to. They can't do nothing about that.
The UK Tax Officer is not the only person who is against local income tax. Again there are benefits for LIT while there are reasons why not to use LIT. But we will never know the results of using LIT untill the Scottish Parliament brings forward the Bill and passes the Bill successfully. Are you pleased with Labour though? They are currently bringing LIT into all types of debates. Attempting to discredit LIT despite the original story or situation. If LIT is all bad then why attempt to stop your political rivals from making the mistakes? If I were Iain Gray, who was up against Alex Salmond, someone far more popular and talented then I then there is no logic stopping Alex Salmond from creating the biggest taxing blunder since the Tory Poll Tax, is there? Are Labour really protecting the Scottish people or are they looking to protect their own skins because IF LIT was successful they could loose vast amounts of support to the Nationalists? From where I am, who I watch on TV I see that Labour are worried about something but I do believe they are more worried about the SNP bringing in LIT rather then the negative inpact it may have on Scottish society. Perhaps if Labour were in power then they, along with the Lib Dems would be bringing in LIT? Who knows?
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65. At 12:22pm on 29 Oct 2008, brigadierjohn wrote:
So what's the truth? I don't know. I do know that I feel embarrassed for myself and for Scotland every time I see Salmond on TV these days.
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you are embarracing yourself with your post 65.
more and more you are posting along the same lines as expat, sneering but no substance to your sneers.
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Et tue, Norway? I see a top Norwegian politician is rubbishing Salmond's claims of similarity between his country and Scotland, and is quite angry that the SNP are trying to "adopt" Norway for themselves, while the Norwegians rather like their relationship with the whole UK.
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the SNP are trying to adopt norway, you cannot be serious.
does the norwegian politician happen to be a member of the norwegian labour party and his comments are his bit to help his beleagred comrades at westminster.
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I see a top UK tax officer is rubbishing Salmond's LIT plan as a bit of a ludicrous farce.
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why does he think that it is a ludicrous farse, as you give no details as to why he says this, and why he comes out with it at this particular time just before the glenrothes by-election.
is he towing the nulabour party line.
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I see the polls suggest Labour are closing in fast on Glenrothes. I suppose it's just anti-Scottish media lies.
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yes, we see it to and i believe that you will see it swing the other way once the electorate realise that GB and AD are acting against scotlands interest.
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Not a good day for the smug smirk - according to the anti-Scottish media liars.
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yes i did notice the smiles breaking out from GB when he was saying that there was only the one offer on the table for HBOS, but niether GB or AD will clarify whether they are prepared to give HBOS funds the same as the other banks if the merger goes ahead.
he is so delighted that HBOS may be merged with LLOYDS TSB and scotland may lose its HBOS edinburgh headquarters that he cannot maintain his serious look, and smiles whilst talking about it.
does he care about the people that will be made unemployed, NO, as long as he feels that he has pulled one over the SNP.
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watching prime ministers question time'
GB says that the tory opposition are not prepared for government.
i wonder if the nulabour are prepared for opposition.
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76 Old Nat
Is it not clear what I am for? I am for a devolved Scottish Government that sticks to its remit, doesn't pick unnecessary fights that embarrass and alienate our country and doesn't waste my taxes on employing our civil servants to pursue issues that are directly related to an independence agenda e.g. National CONversation.
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#78 Reluctant-Expat
Normally, when people post a link it's to a website that is sourced.
I note that your link is to a web page that has been decontextualised from its source, and thus is worthless as evidence.
If you post the proper link it might (or might not) support your argument that all small countries are inherently incapable of running their own affairs.
Which always comes back to the question for UK Unionists - why is it that you want to cling to a small country like the UK, instead of embracing the EU?
There will always be some doubt as to your economic arguments when you erroneously argued for so long that the Scottish deficit had to be added to our share of the UK deficit.
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And now for a piece of total political trivia!
Brown wears an English poppy
Next thing Alan Cochrane will be investigating where politicians buy their clothes!
Judging by their normal sartorial inelegance, I doubt that any of them have access to a $150,000 clothes allowance.
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#79 brigadier
Well said.
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Where are you Brian, not off covering the Presidential race perchance, or were you in goal for Chick's team that got gubbed by these " animals " from Holyrood last night. I see yer man from Shetland has now decided HBOS can go it alone , or is it with the help of the bank of Lerwick. If only the Lib/Dems would stick to what they're good at, I take it they must be good at something. Seems according to all the Labour polls the SNP is not going to win Glenrothes, independence or even the bingo. Luckily the country now realises that what emerges from the labour propaganda machine is about as accurate as what comes out of the mouth of the Rev. Brown and his eyebrowed familiar. Maybe Ivan Mandelson will tell us if the HBOS merger is kosher, or whether another unfavourable report is not going to see the light of day. Expat is off his medication again.
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#82 scottishrepublic
Sorry, but that as weird and unhelpful a posting as that of our less reputable Unionist friends!
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Privately HMRC officials went farther and one senior source said: ?This is pie in the sky. The logistical arrangements for collecting this tax would be incredible.
?Introducing changes to the personal allowance in September took months and months and this could take even longer
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i believe that the above statment is in reference to the allowing local councils to each set their own rate and not to the single rate scotland wide.
if it is in reference to the single LIT rate and he is saying that it would take months and months to sort out then i suggest that he take early retirement as he is usless.
yes, it appears that nulab are realy worried that LIT could be passed.
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#88 salmondella
"Is it not clear what I am for? I am for a devolved Scottish Government".
It wasn't obvious before, but thanks for your response. We now have a positive comment from you in favour of the status quo.
Did you support the decision of the 3 Unionist parties to set up the Calman Commission?
Remember that it is being paid for through our taxes, in order to change the current constitutional settlement in line with Unionist thinking.
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#81 Hey reluctant expat dud, why not take your own advice.
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88. At 4:49pm on 29 Oct 2008, salmondella.
posters please note that salmondella does not believe in democracy and the scottish government is only to talk about the things that the nulabour camp in westminster says they are to talk about.
try getting westminster to stop making the scottish government repeatedly ask for funds that should come to scotland, and that westminster are withholding because its the SNP that are having to ask.
get your nulab/li-dem chums to oust the minority scottish government and wait and see the backlash at the next elections.
the only embarrassment that is going about is called GORDON BROWN the financial genius that has saved the worlds finances whilst bankrupting the UK.
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#89.
Oldnat.
Those who back the Union are terrible with their arguements. The same arguements could be used to support the European Union.
How can Britain influence the world stage? The European Union has greater economic influence.
How can Britain fund her military? A European Military could defend Europe and base troops abroad. The military budget would be greater and the capabilities would increase because of the amount of people involved.
Britain is unfit to run her own affairs... several banks nationalised, sinking in debt. Britain can not be Independent...
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#88
"Is it not clear what I am for? I am for a devolved Scottish Government that sticks to its remit"
Does that include not having fiscal autonomy for Scotland?
I take it by that statement your quite happy with the current political set up, regarding a devolved parliament in Scotland, devolved assemblys in Wales and Northern Ireland and a UK parliament?
Its become clear that the status quo does not work, particularly as England does not have its own legislature solely concerned with English affiars, and Scotland cannot exercise control over its own economy and resources to meet its populations needs.
Whether you are for or against independence in Scotland, a devolved Scottish government that sticks to its remit without having fiscal autonomy cannot sufficiently address issues that affect Scottish citizens lives.
Something has to change.
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I assume Salmond will offer low corporate taxes to Lloyds when independence comes. That's been his standard pitch up to now.
Or he may decide not to bother with this angle. Lloyds TSB are a sensible company, they can read the opinion polls as easily as anyone else, and at the moment, independence is dead.
Either way, he's in a very weak debating position. A third option would be to pay lip service to his ideal, whilst discarding it in frank discussion. That's a tightrope he can walk for only so long.
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#90, oldnat
Trivialising the kind of poppy worn is inappropriate, and the matter significant, if it means that Gordon Brown only contributed to the Royal British Legion poppy appeal (which specifically excludes activities in Scotland) and not to the the corresponding appeal of Royal British Legion Scotland.
I have always found it disgusting, disgraceful and an insult to all who fought - whether killed, injured, or neither - in the name of the United Kingdom that there is this monstrous division necessitated because of separate legal jurisdictions, etc.
Hence, despite the fact that I have not visited England (or, indeed, set foot outside Scotland) for something over 19 years, I offer a donation to the non-Scottish appeal as well as wearing my Scottish poppy with pride.
I wonder if GB et al would be more inclined to wear the Scottish poppy if it didn't look so unimpressive - we don't get a bit of leaf, but this has been the norm south of the border for many years, and the latter looks more like a quality item.
Of course, it shouldn't matter what it looks like but Scots appearing on 'national' BBC programmes look like poor relations, and I am sure some English think it is because the mean Scots have saved and re-used their poppy for all the years since the English design changed away from that which persists here.
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#81 Reluctant-Expat
Thank you for your idea, from which I can only conclude that you must be paid for making your own "contributions". So long as your posts distort the facts, I will do my best to correct them whenever I am in a position to do so.
"instead of trying to spin it as '5% of the gap'!"
You seem to forget that the key relevant numbers (Lab 37.9%, SNP 29.4%) are for UK elections under the 1872 plurality system, where - as the immortal Irving Mills would have said - It Don't Mean a Thing (If It Ain't Got That Swing). The gap (or so-called majority) is exactly double the swing needed to displace the incumbent. Nationally, the SNP need a swing of 4.25% to displace NuLab not the 4.5% your post suggests. In that context, a change of more than 5% is statistically significant.
I do not for a moment dispute the Brown 42%, Salmond 23% in your #57 although I would have put Cameron's 7.6% in too, for transparency. What I do object to is your Brown (+16%), Salmond (-13%) which related to a different question with different options.
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#85 Thomas_Porter
"If LIT is all bad then why attempt to stop your political rivals from making the mistakes?"
Apart from the competence issues I raise in my #80, I strongly suspect that a working LIT would have both England and Wales clamouring for it, too, to replace the inordinately complex system of the Council Tax with nearly 400 variations in England alone before taking Parish Precepts into account or considering its regressive nature.
If it were insisted upon by the English electorate, just consider how many town hall jobs would be saved - most of them union members and NuLab contributors. Opposition to it might be part of the secret funding deal reached between NuLab and the unions at Warwick.
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#87 U13282939
LOL - succinctly put.
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Thanks to all who replied, or should that be who retaliated!
Scottishrepublic and U132etc: Nothing is going to persuade you guys that anyone who questions the SNP position is other than a liar, a unionist traitor or, please not me, a Labourite. So why should I bother? To be kind, however, let me offer the humble opinion that your rants, bordering on the incoherent, damage the cause of Nationalism with their simplistic, blank denial of the most basic counter-arguments.
Thomas #85: How are you? I don't think our Norwegian friend was worried about Scottish Independence. He was just making the point that they are not like us, and don't welcome comparisons.
As for the Taxman, you know the bother civil servants encounter by making political statements. This was just a top tax professional giving a practical answer to a technical question.
Brownedov #80: I didn't see The Times, so can't comment. I will choose which end of the telescope to view from! But I still don't see how you can equate an agreed principle on income tax variation with the convoluted, open-ended, local-cum-national nonsense put forward by the SNP.
Anyway, I've had a few days off and the Magic Roundabout continued to spin in its chaotic way without me. Ah but..., yes but..., no but... Or is that another comedy show?
I'm going to leave Mr Salmond to his troubles for a while. Most of them are on this blog!
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#90 oldnat
A slow news day. It certainly bodes the question of why he didn't stop his motorcade to get out in Glenrothes and buy one, doing a little "campaigning" at the same time? It also makes one wonder if he actually buys his own, charging it to expenses like Sky Sports, on the basis that it's "uniform" for the Cenotaph?
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#96 InMyKip
I don't think that there are many "beautiful snow-capped mountains just down the road" from the House of Commons!
btw Did you see Brian Donohoe being slapped down by the Speaker at Scottish Questions for inappropriate language?
Not that I'm suggesting that there's any connection between Expat and Donohoe you understand!
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#95 oldnat
I know that the LibDems have been behaving a little oddly lately, but they are still officially Federalist. I think it's a little harsh of you to lump them together with archly unionist NuLab and the officially unionist Tories.
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#100.
Anaxim.
The Independence movement died in 1999 when the Scottish Parliament was created. Oh wait, that did not stick either. Infact several years later we have the Scottish National Party governing Scotland who also have their party membership increasing...
If you close your eyes, hold your hands over your ears then repeat the line 'Independence is dead' it may one day come true. For now the Scottish National Party appear to be here to last and unless they run into major problems I believe they are expected to be our next government at the Scottish Parliament.
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#100 Anaxim
"Lloyds TSB are a sensible company, they can read the opinion polls as easily as anyone else, and at the moment, independence is dead."
Have you been reading using R-E's glasses again?
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Brigadeerjohn
Reluctantexpat
derekbarker
salmondella
Still bitter from losing that election in 2007?
'We wuz robbed!' the Labour party councillors cry!
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To balance the brig's mention of the Norwegian Foreign Minister story in the Daily Mail(which no one else seems to have picked up yet, and the Mail don't bother to put their Scottish edition stories online), here's another Mail story suggesting that
Given the number of roundabouts in Glenrothes, their GPS systems could have them going round in circles!
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Interesting the football pundits don't like politicians interfering in their domain. Will the ref call foul and issue a red card or rosette.
'Sir Alex Ferguson helps Labour in Glenrothes by-election campaign'
'In a leaflet being delivered to all 40,000 households in the constituency, the Manchester United manager argued the Prime Minister "deserves support" while he deals with the current economic turmoil.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3280067/Sir-Alex-Ferguson-helps-Labour-in-Glenrothes-by-election-campaign.html
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Skip_NC's #133 on the previous thread is well worth a read if regarding LIT.
Also, Capt. Darling's remark about 32 different rates is misleading. Under the existing Scotland Act 1998, only 13 different possibilities are allowed, including the existing 0%, because the variations may only be by whole or half percentages. Even any local variations at all may need a further amendment to the act, since it only refers to Scottish taxpayers collectively - not a model of clarity.
It's not easy to envisage such amendments being nodded through by the NuLab UK government just now.
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#100 Anaxim
"at the moment, independence is dead"
If you're referring to the numbers in R-E's #57, then you should probably also consider the 39.3% more likely to back independence if Cameron wins the next general election, a statistic R-E chose not to mention.
Convalescent might describe the current situation better, and it may be more realistic to consider a multi-choice referendum once Calman has published.
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Expat was asking about the prospects for small countries in the current economic turmoil.
While the Financial Times economic weather map is 9 days old, it's worth a look - especially for those who prefer visual images to tables of numbers.
Funny that a lot of the bigger countries don't have wonderful prospects either, but some people always want to claim that size matters.
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112. At 8:13pm on 29 Oct 2008, oldnat wrote:
Given the number of roundabouts in Glenrothes, their GPS systems could have them going round in circles!
------------
If you think that's bad, come to where I live in East Kilbride. They reproduce!
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#114 Brownedov
Good bit of research.
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#105 brigadierjohn
Although, as a Liberal I would personally prefer the LibDem approach of individual councils setting their own requirements, I have actually read these pages over the past few days and as a result looked at the Scotland Act in some detail.
Unfortunately, the LibDem proposals and "unearned" income provisions seem to be outwith the act as it stands. As a result, I feel that the SNP plan is probably the leastworst option for now as being the most progressive that can be obtained under the NuLab UK government.
It would also have the merit of being within the Scotland Act provisions and so precisely what the UK government, HM Treasury and the Inland Revenue / HMRC (should?) have been planning for over the last decade.
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#79 brigadier,
Well said indeed, but not everyone blaming Brown was supping at the trough of excess or cheering him on. I have no shares, I rent, I don't consume excessively (I spend less than 60 percent of my income annually), I have never had a foreign holiday at my own expense and certainly never on credit, I don't have decking and certainly haven't overstretched myself.
I chose to live this way deliberately. Why? Precisely because I saw what was coming, though I freely admit I didn't predict exactly when or how. People thought I was bonkers but I thought otherwise.
Why should I thank Brown for attempting to undo what he himself played no small part in creating?
The whole of our financial system is a house of cards. One of the bottom cards fell out and Brown propped it back up, but it's shoogly.
And it's still a house of cards.
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#114 Brownedov
If I read your post correctly, then the Lib-Dem proposal on LIT might not have been allowable under the Scotland Act.
It seems that neither Labour nor the Lib-Dems understand the legislation that they originally created.
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#121 oldnat
blogs are not audible; how come you sound surprised?
"the end of boom and bust"; Actually I was expecting him to have gone by the time that chicken came home to roost.
None of them could organise a drinks party in a brewery and yet they feel impelled to micro-manage our lives.
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121. At 9:09pm on 29 Oct 2008, oldnat.
i would not like the lib dems to be blamed for not understanding the scotland act in respect to LIT.
it was nulab that wrote up the scotland act ( dewar / smith / wendy ) i believe.
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#121 oldnat
"If I read your post correctly, then the Lib-Dem proposal on LIT might not have been allowable under the Scotland Act."
That's certainly the way I read the act, but I am no lawyer. It talks about rate of variation singular and taxpayers collective. If I'm wrong then there is nothing in that part of the act to stop one individual being given a discount rate and another being surcharged.
Even NuLab drafters might not go that far, but be unable to "think outside the box" re sensible variations.
Do read Skip_NC's #133 near the end of the previous thread also. Together, I think it explains why the SNP seemingly want to go for a "vanilla" initial solution to get it started.
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#123 U13282939
I do wish you would register a new name!
The Lib-Dems are serious politicians (OK I made that bit up), so I thought they could read.
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125. At 9:56pm on 29 Oct 2008, oldnat.
yes, i know you have a wicked sense of humour which i enjoy.
i tried to register a new user name but they keep on saying that i have to reply to their email, which they don't send me.
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#124 Brownedov
"Even NuLab drafters might not go that far"
I don't think it's a matter for the drafters, but the political application.
If the Lib-Dems had been the largest party, then I think Labour would still have opposed Scottish LIT because they don't want the matter raised south of the border.
I noted Skip_NC's comment.
Isn't it strange that the SNP are accused by the Lib_Dems (among others) of picking fights with Westminster, yet the SNP LIT proposal is clearly within the Scotland Act, yet the Lib_Dem's demands for changes to the Government's proposal actually increases the confrontation with Westminster.
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125. At 9:56pm on 29 Oct 2008, oldnat.
tried it again with a new registration and lo and behold it worked today.
henceforth i am now me.
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#126 U13282939
If you have a spam filter operating, then the BBC email may be languishing in your Spam folder (Firefox - or its equivalent in Internet Explorer).
"wicked sense of humour" - I'm deeply,deeply hurt! All I do is ask gentle questions of the likes of expat, but they just sulk and refuse to answer.
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#126. U13282939
You don't suppose they sent it to the "real" holder of your previous name (Who he?). It is the B-bc remember; as I said before - None of them could organise a drinks party in a brewery - that is the only good reason for the SNP, at least it would be our own mistakes and not second hand ones.
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Brian
As Adam Smith seems to find favour with you, would you care to expound on - If any of the provinces of the British empire cannot be made to contribute towards the support of the whole empire, it is surely time that Great Britain should free herself from the expense of defending those provinces in time of war, and of supporting any part of their civil or military establishments in time of peace, and endeavour to accommodate her future views and designs to the real mediocrity of her circumstances. - ?
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#127 oldnat
Points taken. The only "excuse" I can think of for the LibDems is that just maybe they don't want to risk too big a confrontation with NuLab or the Tories in case there's a hung Westmidden parliament next time, and so coming up with a package they expect to be defeated in Holyrood would make fewest waves "in the other place".
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If the Lib Dems every get near power again I will definitely emigrate. I can accept almsot any other party, but not them.
Perhaps someone should point out just why they have been out of power for decades.
What gets me with Labour, is if they used their head they cannot lose with LIT.
If they let the SNP (in other word vote with them) implement LIT, then if it fails they know the voters would crucify the SNP come the next election. And even the most hardened nationalist mist accept that could happen.
But if LIT actually works - which I have my doubts, then they can implement it in England and perhaps keep everyone happy.
But time is not on their side, hence I think that may be one reason why they are objecting.
Or I might be talking mince!
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#128 mr_ripvanwinkle
Glad you're awake now. Things may have changed a bit while you were asleep.
America will have a Democrat or Republican President next week.
The UK has a Labour Government which is indistinguishable from the Tories.
There is a financial crisis.
Celtic beat Kilmarnock tonight
On second thoughts ...........
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Having just watched the deplorable Scottish Questions I have to ask how can anyone who considers themselves Scottish tolerate the mountain of lies and Unionist scaremongering we have to endure. The affairs of Scotland are dealt with in the most pathetic almost childish of ways. It's embarrassing.
How can anyone look at Scotland and say we're better off in the UK than Norway, Iceland, Denmark, ROI, Finland and Sweden are as independents. Unionists must hope Scottish people ignorantly never travel to any of these countries. Of coure they aren't perfect. Of course Scotland would have work to do but who in their right mind wants Scotland to remain in a moribund redundant London-centric Union as this one. Shame on those who damn us all by supporting this insidious, deceitful and destructive sham.
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#133 Neil_Small147
"Or I might be talking mince!"
While that might be true, you wouldn't be any different from anyone else who posts on a blog (actually less likely from you than others I can think of).
Anyway mince is nourishing food!
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134. At 00:19am on 30 Oct 2008, oldnat.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzsnorezzzzzsnorezzz
has that bad bad mr expat emigrated whilst i wazzz napping for 300 years.
im awake now. "FREEDOM"
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#116 oldnat
nice link. May have originally been posted nine days ago, but it has been updated about a day and a half ago since.
Interesting reading the new estimated %GDP growth of the 'big' nations compared to those of the 'small' nations for the rest of 2008 and for 2009.
#78 RE
Excellent, gymn shower politics at its best!
No-one ever tell you it's not the size that matters, it's how you use it that counts?
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#136
Mince is nourishing food, for squirrels?
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Brownedov #115
"If you're referring to the numbers in R-E's #57, then you should probably also consider the 39.3% more likely to back independence if Cameron wins the next general election, a statistic R-E chose not to mention."
More likely is not the same as 'will'. The number has probably shrunk a bit since that poll was taken.
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Off topic I know.
Brian can you blog on the Scottish Questions at Westminster.
I watched it last night. I thought this could be an opportunity to perhaps learn something.
Boy was I wrong. I never heard a positive statement for Scotland in the whole show, I was under the impression that these 'characters' were supposed to be looking out for Scotland. Instead it was a pre-rehearsed show of stupidity on just about everyones part, with the exception of the Speaker i suppose who tried to keep things moving.
The highlight I suppose was Blundell on his nose picking party. As a male I would like to appologise to Anabell who must have been hiding behind her sofa.
I would also like to comiserate with almost all of the MSP's , the thought that the MP's and not the MSP's are the cream of Scottish Politics must make them sick.
Thankfully this horror story was after the watershed. But perhaps we should be letting Scotland see what they are doing in our name by showing it at 6:30
There must be a better way forward in Westminster Hollyrood communication. Remove these MP's from Westminster and allow Hollyrood to represent Scottish interests is my favourate. (Big money saver).
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I was gratified to see Alistair Darling on BBC Breakfast this morning wearing a Scottish poppy.
Good for him.
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#141 Bramblebikes
Indeed, unionist or nationalist I'm sure we can all agree with that!
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I see now that one of the Bank of England advisors has went public with the 'big interest rates cut' message.
One moment while we hear that the Unionists cry that Alex Salmond didn't call it a month ago.
That Alex Salmond didn't ask for direct interevention to banking capital before Darling and Brown established their rescue package.
And Alex Salmond didn't ask for medium length lending investments to sort the economy before Darling and Brown established their rescue package.
Eck didn't take his cabinet 'on tour' before Brown.
Eck didn't create a council tax freeze (for the benefit of tax payers and to help the economy) in Scotland before the Tories started calling for the same in England.
With enemies like these, does the SNP need friends?
Monkey see, monkey do.
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#140 Anaxim
"More likely is not the same as 'will'."
Spot on. That's why I said "you should probably also consider ..."
"The number has probably shrunk a bit since that poll was taken."
You're certainly entitled to guess that whilst I would guess the opposite, since the polling was completed before the week-end when counter arguments started to be heard. Either way, it's far too early to predict what the situation will be in two years time.
What's much more important is what comes out of Calman and whether it prompts the LibDems or even the Tories (given Cameron's recent showing of some sense) to go for multi-choice including full fiscal autonomy, which I personally anticipate will be a necessary stage even if complete independence is chosen.
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I don't see why I should be grateful to Darling for wearing a Scottish poppy. What a nonsense. He should as a Scot and as a matter of course be wearing a Scottish Poppy. Beyond that though what has he really done for Scotland. Very little except parroting the same defeatist Unionist nonsense, poisonous attacks on an SNP elected by the Scottish people and refusing to budge on issues surrounding Scottish money held by the Treasury. If he's a Scottish patriot I would hate to see what an enemy of Scotland would look like.
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Let's take a quick peek at what the nationalists are basing their beliefs on today:
115. The usual "What if...?" from Brownedov. Why bother with actual fact and record when vague, future, potential possibles are so plentiful. How's that 'giant batteries on container ships will make us all rich' scenario developing?
Something for you to think about: As Cameron is almost certain to win the next GE....why is support for independence continuing to fall?
I remember similar polls saying many people would support independence if Labour stayed in.....yet support STILL continues to fall. What is that all about?
Whatever future, possible, potential scenario you consider, support for independence continues to fall.
How does that fit into the 'Scotland will vote for independence in 2010' model?
And for a 'confederalist', you really are bizarrely pro-independence.
116. And another "What if...?" from oldnat. This time a pretty map with some economic forecasts. What were these 'forecasts' saying before the crisis hit? Does it matter that the same people who drew up that map predicted continued global growth a few years back? Probably not when their latest efforts suit nationalist beliefs.
And the rest of the Nationalist Support Group's efforts are the usual bland and predictable rhetoric.
Anyway, good to see so many of you (well, three of you anyway) putting in the hours on this blog for the cause.
Other than me, I wonder how many other people read all your efforts?
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#147, dearie me expat you still at it, what are you like eh! Personally I've no idea how other people will vote come 2010, that will be upto them, but I know how I will vote and for me that's all that matters, I certainly will not base my vote on any of the 'guff' that's passed for facts in here (and that particuarly includes the 'guff' you post expat). I do find it amusing however that you belittle the postings of others whilst completely failing to recognise that your own attempts are at best amateurish and quite frankly without any credibility........ y'know it's almost as if you do this political thingy for a living you're that bad at it. Be seeing you.
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#147. Reluctant-Expat
I am glad to see you acknowledge that you are an "other person"!
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Isn't it really amazing?
All the unionist posters rabbit on about the support for independence falling (routinely ignoring all the polls which don't support this opinion while promoting the few polls which might do so do) but they are frightened to allow us a referendum.
Right,guys.
Give us a serious and democratically legitimate reason why we shouldn't be allowed a referendum (apart from the fact that "Independence" might win)
PS. We'll have one whether you allow us or not. What fun we'll have if you try to block it!
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I see that Guido Fawkes has called SNP marginal on Glenrothes.
It really does get interesting when even English tory voters through and through admit that the SNP is the party of choice for Scottish voters.
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In my post 78, I produced an OECD graph on Norway's non-oil public finances which clearly indicated that the Norwegian economy (the only one that is in both of Weeble's first two 'arcs of prosperity') has been running an average 5% of GDP deficit for decades, while being heavily propped up by the oil income.
Quite why Weeble thinks such an economy is worth emulating is beyond me.
I have recently also reported OECD figures showing the UK economy has performed better than the rest of the second 'arc' since 1990.
I then asked for any small economy out there that has had stronger growth than the UK, is not propped up by oil or aid, and is not currently bankrupt/deep in recession?
The Weeble has managed with his first two attempts, could anyone else oblige?
So far; nada, zilch and zero. Not even from the Nationalist Self-Support Group's night shift...........
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150. Feel free to produce the polls that show support for independence increasing, sneckedagain.
You say there are more reporting this than are showing support is falling? I look forward to reading them all.
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#152 Im glad you think that these countries are such a failure however, they are independent, and thus accept responsibility for themselves, do they not?
So why are you against an independence referendum other than the fact that people might say....
'Yes'
?
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#152 more "guff" form the guff meister.
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152. Ahem. Make that:
"The Weeble hasn't managed with his first two attempts, could anyone else oblige?"
(Read through before submitting, RE, read through before submitting.)
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Apropos of the most recent Scottish Questions session in the House of Commons and for those who may have wondered why a politician from Norway might, according to claims made, have seen fit to have a stab at counteracting in some small way UK "division" represented by the demand for Scottish independence, it may be apposite to allude to the fact that Norway is a close ally of the UK state and has been since the great Union Crisis which culminated in the splitting of the Swedish kingdom into the two separate and independent kingdoms of Norway and Sweden in 1905. For a full and contemporary account of the events leading to Norwegian independence you could do worse than turn to The Swedish-Norwegian Union Crisis by Karl Nordlund (Stockholm and Upsala, 1905).
How did the UK come to be involved in that affair? Actually, one should rather ask how it might have been that the UK would not have been in some way involved in view of the tensions which were building up in Europe at the time. Although one might guess that the UK would have been in favour of the survival of the Swedish Union, that was in point of fact not so. The UK supported Norway's demand for independence and was instrumental in guaranteeing it against the potent threat of German intervention in favour of the kingdom of Sweden. One should bear in mind, therefore, that Norway can be said actually to owe its independence to the UK, perplexing though this may at first sight appear to those who might have assumed that British unionists would have sought to support Swedish unionists by virtue of being unionists.
As for more recent history, there is the small matter of UK endeavours to support Norway in its misfortunes of the Second World War. As for the present day, better the devil that you know than the one you don't know, presumably. Norwegians may speculate that an independent Scottish Government might conceivably adopt an approach to the various resources of the Scottish sector of the North Sea that might be judged to be have the potential to be less beneficial to Norway than the status quo.
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#139 ScotInNotts
That discussion on Justin Webb's blog was probably the most erudite on the blogosphere!
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RE
regarding your praised growth of the UK economy, how about you read this section from the Scottish government:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/TrendGDPEU
regarding 'small' countries actual GDP growth compared to Scotlands from Q4 1994 to Q1 2008.
Can't think the situation will have improved somehow, do you?
Union dividend shines through once again.
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#147 Reluctant-Expat
"Other than me, I wonder how many other people read all your efforts?"
How constructive you are. Do keep it up. I hope that everyone reads your negative contributions, dodgy comparisons and notes the non-answers to awkward questions.
If any "undecideds" do stumble upon these pages, I am certain that your contributions do more to further the cause of home rule than any others.
"And for a 'confederalist', you really are bizarrely pro-independence."
And if you seriously believe that bizarre assertion, perhaps you would for once show a little courtesy and list a few examples of that change?
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#146, bluelaw
Although my etymological prowess is severely limited, I don't see the connection between 'gratification' and 'gratitude'.
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154. Okay, so BrianSH can't think of a small economy that has had stronger growth than the UK, is not propped up by oil or aid, and is not currently bankrupt/deep in recession.
Anyone else?
Come on, there must be some that Salmond could use for his third 'arc of prosperity'? Some countries that categorically prove that Scotland might possibly do better outside the UK? They don't even have to be European....
*His economic masterplan collapses at the first crisis.
*Support in the polls is down.
*Support for independence is down.
*His financial credibility (his strongest point, allegedly) is down.
*The National Conversation now down to one post every two days.
*Nobel Prize Winners backing Brown in international newspapers....while Salmond has only got a local radio journo and the man that ruined RBS in his corner.
*His first 'arc of prosperity' lasted a month before it fell apart.
*His second arc was clearly nonsense as soon as he said it.
He's clearly struggling so let's give the man some assistance, eh?
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155. InMyKip fails too.
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#161 The_Forfarian
I can imagine all kinds of circumstances in which there would be "gratitude" for "gratification".
However, enough of my fantasies
:-)
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159. And if you take heavily-EU subsidised Ireland out of the equation.....
And perhaps tiny Luxembourg too (so Iceland is "too small to be compared to Scotland" but Luxembourg is okay?!)....
Why aren't the Netherlands and Belgium included in this SNP comparison? (Their economies grew slower than the UK, is that perhaps relevant?)
I wonder what the graph would look like now?
How about we avoid convenient clustering of preferred countries by the SNP, and stick to one-to-one comparisons?
(It really doesn't take much effort to dismantle nationalist claims, does it.)
Right, ScotInNotts hasn't found any solution to #78 either. The hunt continues.
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Bungler Broon has moved on, HBOS, financial crisis, what crisis.
Bungler is now more concerned with Ross and Brand, than Scottish people loosing their houses, jobs and savings.
The return of Mendleson and Campbell has temporary lifted Bungler's spirits and fortunes, but, ladies and gentlemen, we all know Peter will be discovered doing something innaproriate that requires his dismisal.
Labours fortunes are build on sand and dept.
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#165 Reluctant-expat
Once again you reveal the fact your brain doesn't function. Either that or you are a compulsive liar. Both mayhaps.
Look at the link provided in #159 and tell us that Scotland has performed better as part of the union or not.
The answer is '23.3% of the time 'Yes''
'76.6% of the time 'No''.
With enemies like these, do us nationalists need friends?
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#152, #162, #163, #165 Reluctant-Expat
Yet again you studiously and repeatedly ignore oldnat's request in #89 to put your ghee-whizz graph in context by providing a link to the page which contains it. Only the file name "29726336NOR_FIG1_2_E.gif" gives any indication that the graph might be something to do with Norway and the end date of 2004 suggests it's a few years old.
I couldn't find it in the OECD's otherwise interesting Economic Survey of Norway 2005, which paints a pretty encouraging picture to me or do you dislike Norway as much as you seem to dislike Scotland?
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#151 BrianSH
Thanks for the tip. Guido is always interesting reading and today's Glenrothes: Punters V Pundits, Round II is better than most. I particularly liked the: "The pundits are as fickle as teenage girls, the punters are more calculating."
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#97 - I detect the smell of fear and desperation in that blog and, dare I say, a hint of jealousy.
#128 - blast, just lost the 'momentous name change' sweepstake - I drew out brownwithenvy
#95 Oldnat - but the constitutional settlement is what is in place now. There is no remit or mandate for this SG to pursue an independence agenda so I believe they should stop wasting taxes employing our civil servants to do so.
#84 BrianSHhhhhhhhhhhh please!! ps I don't work for the cooncil?? I guess you are probably not of working age?
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brian, where is your story on the lib dems efforts to save HBOS from the merger with LLOYDS TSB.
and why are nulab in scotland keeping quiet about the fact that it appears that brown and darling are not giving HBOS the same support as they gave to RBS, and are only pushing the one solution, when eaverbody knows that their is two solutions.
nu lab in scotland you are a disgrace and the sooner all your msps are voted out, the better, no matter which party takes your place.
brian, why do you not state the obvious that the HBOS merger is political.
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if only glenrothes voters, would do scotland a favour, and vote for any party other than nulab.
that would get the message home to brown that his handling of the economy and the HBOS crisis is not good enough.
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Punters or Pundits to get Glenrothes right?
Guido has an interesting take on this.
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#165 RE
You having trouble reading again, like you had with your own post before?
Hang on and I'll hold your hand while we walk through the scary numbers.
The link produced was for actual GDP growth of Scotland, not UK, against GDP growth of a selection of small EU countries. You can exclude any country you wish according to your own criteria, it still does not alter the facts.
Scotland's economy has grown slower relative to these countries. Where's the union dividend?
Note the date and the fact Iceland was not included before the banking collapse.
Here's the comparison of Scotland's actual GDP growth with the UK's for the same period 1994 Q4 to 2008 Q1
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/TrendLongerGDP
and the stats for 2008 Q1
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/TrendLatestGDP
Again, Scotland's economy lags behind. More of the union dividend? And you claim we're better off economically in the UK, shame on you.
"How about we avoid convenient clustering of preferred countries by the SNP, and stick to one-to-one comparisons?"
Knock yourself out, find the stats and we will compare country to country.
"Right, ScotInNotts hasn't found any solution to #78 either. The hunt continues."
For what, an answer to your warped criteria? Ireland works fine as an example as its growth until the crisis far outstripped that of Scotland and the UK. The funding by the EU has been discussed before, yes they are in recession now, but what do you think we in Scotland and the UK are in?
Don't trust the stats because they're from the Scottish government? The same source for all your exhibits regarding GERS that you posted daily for goodness knows how many days. You couldn't read those properly either.
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#162 reluctant-expat
Small countries currently doing well, not propped by oil or aid and not in recession or financial crisis:
How about Vatican, Monaco, Gibraltar, San Marino.
Another thing they have in common - income lower tax rates. Oh, and Gibraltar used to be run as a British colony, I suspect that they were not as prosperous then.
Source: Jane's Information Services as at March 2008, Top 50 prosperous countries.
Will that do?
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#165 Reluctant-Expat
When doing our calculations on this - whose national deficit do you want us to add to theirs?
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http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/economic-weathe.html
Notice how badly hit, the biggest economies are compared to their smaller neighbours.
Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Spain and Russia all have a bleak outlook for sometime. Although, it is worth noting that the UK is the only large country on the map they are confident enough to predict negative growth for over the course of next year (as a whole). Thank you Gordon Brown!
Whereas their smaller neighbours are generally faring better. What would we not do for the stability of a Scandanavian nation or the one of the Low Countries or Switzerland, Austria, The Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia etc ... etc ...
Instead we are stuck with Broon's long-term, structural Bust.
In addition, it is worth noting how the economist map predicts that smaller countries such as Ireland and Denmark (who, in its analysis, took a fairly substantial hit - like the UK) are expected to recover far quicker than their larger neighbours. Indeed, Denmark will substantially outgrow the UK in the next 2 years. As will the rest of Scandanavia - despite the throwing of diplomatic slurs by Murphy the Scottish Secretary.
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#177 pattymkirkwood
Have you bribed the mods?
How come you got posted straight away, when the 7 above you didn't?
Something stinks in the state of Denmark! - though less in their economy than ours.
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#170 salmondella
There is no remit or mandate for this opposition to pursue a revision of the current settlement so should they stop wasting taxes employing the Calman Commission to do so?Even you can't have it both ways!
To repeat my question -
Did you support the decision of the 3 Unionist parties to set up the Calman Commission?
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177. Yet another nat who prefers favourable forecasts to fact and record.
Yet another nat that will happily accept these forecasts, even though they were made by the very same people who failed to see the crunch coming.
Meanwhile, I still await the name of some countries whose economy has grown more than the UK's over the past 20 years, is not propped up by oil or aid and is not bankrupt or already deep in recession.
In other words; Evidence to support claims that the UK has held us back and also a precedent to show us that Scotland could grow stronger outside the UK.
Suggestions so far...
Arc of Prosperity I:
Iceland (bankrupt, bailed out by IMF, interest rates at 18%, suddenly considered "too small" by Salmond)
Ireland (rapid growth but heavily subsidised, the first and still the only European nation to go into full recession)
Norway (running consecutive non-oil deficits averaging 5% of GDP for the past 20 years, heavily propped up by oil)
Arc of Prosperity II:
Norway (see above)
Finland, Sweden, Denmark (none of these economies have matched UK growth in past 20 years).
Others:
Netherlands (lower growth)
Belgium (ditto)
Portugal (ditto)
Austria (ditto)
Switzerland (ditto)
Spain (grown slightly faster but subsidised 8-9bn euros each year)
All other small Euro nations (also heavily subsidised by the EU)
I only know of one.
Luxembourg (matches all criteria, similar population to Iceland but seemingly still acceptable to the SNP)
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Regarding the HBOS takeover by Lloyds TSB, at the time one of Brown and Darling said that LTSB was sound and well capitalised as an attempt in justifying the move (other than any overt political advantage of curse).
A bit of history. 25 years ago newly created Lloyds bank (used to be bank of London and South America) along with a consortium of other banks (mostly UK and US that I recollect) had lent billions of US Dollars to both Argentina and Brazil. There was a huge default, by both countries mostly through lending too much which in turn meant huge repayments.
In Argentina's case their economy was inherently weak after years of Peron public spending largesse. In Brazil's case not enough research was done by the bankers to see if the capital could be repaid. At a superficial level it all made a lot of sense - shades of the bankers seeing the $signs on the bottom line. The Itaipu dam was then the largest hydroelectric power station in the world, and the power was earmarked for the industrial centres in Sao Paulo. However, the electric grid could not cope, so for 18 months only 1 turbine worked to export electricity to Paraguay. So Brazil did not get an immediate return and this was when interest rates were high - think large capital loan and compound interest...
The upshot with the loan default was that the banks got a metaphorical kicking, and in the mid 1980's bank charges in the UK domestic market were raised. This is the reason that Lloyds are better capitalised, not due to long term prudent management as Downing Street would want you to believe, but because of past indiscretions. You could say that banks never learn, I could not disagree with that.
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#156
Why not make that, 'Read through before submitting, then don't bother'?
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#177 - pass, on that question. Just started happening a couple of topics ago.
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#165
Can't comment about Belgium but since the Netherlands' population is considerably larger than ours (c16.5m), it's hardly a valid basis for comparison.
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#183 pattymkirkwood
Since it's happened again, I prefer to think that there is a deep conspiracy at work !!!
Oh, I'm so sorry - I'm turning into another nat conspiracist.
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175. It does perfectly. Much appreciated!
To be honest, this bit of fun has turned out to be one hell of an eye-opener.
I'm looking forward to the SNP putting that weathermap on their site, next to that local radio journo and the world's worst banker.
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#179 Olnat
The Calman Commission is the outcome of a vote of the democractic Scottish Parliament?
That is totally different to a SG that is cynically abusing its power and our taxes for their own political independence agenda and against the wishes of the vast majority of the Scottish people.
I have told you what I am in favour of so there is no need for me to elaborate and be drawn into the petty Nat Twilight Zone.
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More dishonesty and lies from expat.
If you want to talk comparative growth - look at GDP growth over the last 30 years, Scotland (held back by the Union) as against: Ireland, any Scandanavian nation or any other 'small' West European nation. There you will see Scotland lagging behind by between 1.5-0.8% per year.
That adds up over the decades as any fair analysis shows.
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188. Oh dear. Not a shrill pile of nonsense at all, this one. "Scotland lagged behind every small Western European nation", did it?
I quoted figures from the OECD (as opposed to your use of your imagination) on comparative growth in #180 which clearly state the opposite of what you have just posted.
There is not one small European country (other than tiny Luxembourg) whose economy has grown more since 1990 than the UK, unless they were heavily subsidised by aid or oil.
The UK economy grew even faster in the 80s (ask someone over 40 about the '80s boom') which blasts your "last 30 years" claim right out of the water! Bit of an "oops!" moment for you there.
So, I think we both know who the liar is here, don't we. Mmm? Yes.
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188. So the OECD have got it completely wrong and you have got it right?
Or did you just pluck that claim out of your fevered imagination?
(Are you and Minuend the same person?)
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#189 RE
Sill playing all those wee nations are rubbish compared to the mighty UK?
Again you mention the UK's economic growth, what about Scotlands? Did you not read the government statistics links I posted in #174?
I don't think you're a liar expat, and you have made sensible comments regarding local government, but you sure can twist and manipulate statistics to fit your own agenda sometimes, as can everyone else.
Have you thought about why you attract so much negativity on these blogs? Are we all snarling drooling nationalists, or is that you refuse to listen or engage in any sensible or meaningful debate? There's an element of sticking your head in the sand and hoping this will go away.
I guess we'll both find out soon enough just how popular independence is at the moment when the Glenrothes results are counted.
What are your plans if Scotland does become independent, would you come back to live here, or would you exile yourself out of spite?
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http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/11/30090722/2
Specifically Table 1.
Expat more bizarre claims from you, backed up by no stats and no evidence ...
Financial illiteracy is painful to behold!
Incidentally, keep up spilling your bile on this blog - it is nice (and very useful) for people to see the real face of Labour's 'Little Scotland/we canny dae it' mob.
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192. And how does Scotland fare against Wales, NI and N England? The UK figure will be heavily slanted by the strong growth of London, the SE and the E.
And how has Scotland become the 3rd richest region of the UK if we lag so far behind everyone else?
Hardly one to whinge and moan about selective quoting, are you? Eh?
Found any countries that had stronger growth than the UK in the last few decades? The UK has even topped Germany, France, Italy and Japan. Did you know that? It's all there on the OECD website.
You are so desperate for independence at any cost, that you just produce one pile of nonsense after another.
That says it all about the total non-existence of any sensible argument for independence.
Tell you what, this is all clearly too difficult for you. Just stick to pathetic insults, nationalist. That's all you're good for.
Next.
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#193
Whats that RE? Is that what passes for you admitting you made a mistake by confusing the UK's GDP as Scotland's?
Oh..wait...forget that, how do we compare against Wales, NI etc.?
That wasn't your original question now was it?
Smoke and mirrors my friend, smoke and mirrors. You've been learning from GB haven't you.
"That says it all about the total non-existence of any sensible argument for independence."
Maybe in your mind, fortunately others may have another opinion.
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You have a cheek you offer nothing but insults no logic, no argument, no ability to debate.
You are so blinded by your hatred of the idea of Scotland being able to 'stand alone' i.e. be a normal country that refuse to even consider the arguments.
I see you have no intention of answering any of the points raised by your opponents as usual! Now that is pathetic.
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ad nauseum
"Those whom the gods would destroy they first teach statistics"
181 excellentcatblogger
Nice piece but I'm sure that Lloyds bank has been around a lot longer than 25 years...I could see it from my pram. That aside, speaking as a victim of the banks' "let's recoup our losses in the 3rd World via usery and penal bank charges" during the 1980s I clearly recall the banks' previous approach to negative profit.
It was Lloyds who really took a bath at this time and who, as a result, became significantly more cautious in their lending policies. As recently as 6 months ago they were still being reviled by commentators for their fuddy-duddy conservatism and their share price suffered accordingly at the hands of the get-rich-quick people.
Who's laughing now? As much as it pains me, I think that they are an example of a bank that learned its lesson. Let's hope that others do as well once they've recouped their losses by bleeding the little man dry!
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As a member of HBOS staff caught upn in this circus I wish that someone would actually come out and tell the truth. We are being told one thing by our employers and another by the media. At the end of the day, there are ordinary peoples lives going to be affected, no matter what the decision is!! Well done to Peter and George for trying to put some key facts straight, lets hope the shareholders make the right decision for everyone!
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