Seldom pure
I feel bereft. Here I am back from annual leave and the Glasgow East by-election is all but over.
Except of course for the small matter of the election itself. The opportunity for the people of the constituency to cast their vote.
Campaigning must be endlessly frustrating for politicians. On the streets and on the doorsteps, people display an exasperating desire to talk about their own concerns, the practical matters which afflict their lives.
By contrast, candidates would far rather talk about the issue which they regard as germane: that is, the fact that their opponent is the living embodiment of all evil.
On the scorching beaches of Crete, where I have been lounging, the Glasgow by-election was, of course, the permanent topic of discussion.
However, to fill in the few gaps which remained, I have trawled the internet: including catching up on televised debates.
Echo opinion
A few things occur. Just as in Dunfermline, it would appear that the physical state of the constituency is a relevant factor.
In the Fife contest, the candidates were only too keen to echo street opinion that the centre of Scotland's ancient capital was slumbering towards hideous decay.
By contrast, in Glasgow East, it has become fashionable to insist that the area has many good points and that those who would decry it are simply lackeys of the effete southern media.
Secondly, many of the issues which have been raised are, strictly speaking, not the provenance of this by-election. That is because this is a contest for a seat at Westminster, not Holyrood.
Whoever is elected, consequently, will not be dealing directly with devolved matters such as policing, crime, schooling and health.
The third factor helps explain why those issues have been so prominent, other than the tedium of basing a by-election purely upon reserved issues such as tax and benefits.
Practical result
That is because the people of Glasgow East are being invited to choose, at least in part, not just between candidates but between governments.
I suppose that is inevitable when the lead party, Labour, forms the UK Government and the closest chasing rival, the SNP, forms the Scottish Government.
To that extent, this is a referendum between Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond or, more precisely, that is how the outcome may be interpreted.
The purist in me would point out gently that the practical result of this contest will be no more than the return of a representative to Westminster.
However, politics is seldom pure and the Glasgow East verdict may well have considerably wider repercussions.
I'm 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~29~RS~)
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Well Brian I thought you had been kidnapped and have been waiting for the hat to come round to raise the randsom demmanded for your release!
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Welcome back Brian. Your absence has spawned a thousand conspiracy theories, from sacking to censorship. But in real terms you missed nothing but an insipid campaign.
Certainly the outcome may have wider repercussions and to that extent it's interesting. But the winner will be quickly forgotten, disappearing into the Westminster swamp and emerging as another clone.
Let's hope there is some benefit for the East End.
One thing is guaranteed. Every party will be claiming some kind of positive outcome on Friday morning. And the opinions here are predictable. But it will be fun to see all the bloggers in overdrive.
Do tell us next time you are going away!
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brian your back.............
thank goodness (so someone paid the ransom to get you out of the broom cupboard bad auntie beeb had locked you in.......
We actually had much more fun speculating what had happened to you.
Could you please ask auntie beeb to tell us where you are or when you will be back when you are not here.
ps. Do you keep the braces on when sunbathing? (i have a mental picture involving braces and a knotted hankie?)
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Well done Brian, a politically balanced point of view for a change!
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Hello Brian,
It's nice to have to back. There has been certain Bloggers who have had no life in the recent weeks, since you left them nothing to comment on.
Personally, this particular by-election is important for the Scottish National Party to show they are capable of reaching out to different parts of Scotland. It is far more important that the Scottish National Party manages to hold the seat after the general election and hopefully it shows a change in the political landscape in the United Kingdom.
Of course the Scottish National Party are fighting an up-hill battle. There is a huge chance they shall loose but what is important is the amount of voters who have chose to follow the Nationalists. In future, if enough voters change over to the Nationalist, then Glasgow East will become another Nationalist seat for decades.
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here in cambridge it seems that little has been made of this being ( I believe ) statistically labours safest seat in scotland , meaning if the SNP win, labour would be wiped out , if repeated around the rest of scotland which would of course be quite quite wonderful if probably unlikely given the numbers needed to overcome this fortress
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What about Boab?
I see side-show SNP Boab has gone and done it again. Boab has grabbed a returning -from-sick-absence member of his own staff by the neck and throttled him, (See Scottish Edition of The Sunday Times, 20th July, 2008). This is reminiscence of another throttling that he is only to well aware of. Are the cracks beginning to show as he struggles under his allegiance to the corrupt organisation from whence he came.
Ah, Boab, you are going to get found out, better to come clean and lance the boil that surely must be developing on the end of your nose as it grows and grows, before Alex lances you!
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Welcome boack - but it would have been nice to know where you were. You know, a small note somewhere saying it's ok, Brian isn't dead. Also it has deprived the site of this blog during a vital election campaign. Not very good, BBC! But now you're back, Brian, how about working overtime and letting us know what you think about the questions about the former MP (whom I think you said you liked a great deal) and the financial allegations we read of elsewhere in the media? Telling more on the subject after Thursday isn't good enough.
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Again the politicians have failed to grasp the here and know concept,the east end is not troubled by the horrible "ASP"the good people of the east end want to know,who will better their lot,whose in it to win it and make the difference to their constituency.I had high hopes that this election would be about people and their needs,again spin and ground hog day,has failed the people of the east end,me thinks it's about time politicians were contracted to deliver,if they fail to deliver,then what good are they to their constituents?
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#2 Brigadier
Agreed. One of the few enjoyable bits of the results broadcast (whatever the result) will be watching the parties twisting reality.
As you and Brian both point out, the result makes no difference in practical terms - best job in the world must be a Scottish MP at Westminster. Nothing to do except provide office space for your daughter!
What we all want to see is the effect on Scottish politics in general.
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Welcome back Brian and just in time!
Your last blog 'Labour lagging in by-election race' has 766 comments, is this some sort of record?
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#9 derekbarker
A little naive, I think, to expect any election to be about the need of the people instead of the parties.
I would have thought that the majority of the people of the East End are more than capable of improving their own lives, if jobs are available, and they want to take them.
Spending money on infrastructure etc, rather on Britain's pretensions to world status is the only way to achieve that - and only one way to get there!
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re "I suppose that is inevitable when the lead party, Labour, forms the UK Government and the closest chasing rival, the SNP, forms the Scottish Government."
Been away too long Brian. All the polls show that the SNP are the lead party in Scotland now. Labour have been knocked off their perch in North, South, East and Central Scotland, and the SNP have come a knocking in the West of Scotland too.
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#13 minuend
I had assumed that Brian meant the lead party IN THE CONSTITUENCY. Whether the SNP are 500 votes ahead of or behind Labour, makes little difference. For Labour even to be threatened in Glasgow East indicates the huge change in Scottish politics.
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Minuend,
Perhaps Brian was referring to the state of the parties in Glasgow East, rather than Scotland-wide?
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Its very clear that that he meant the constituency.
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#7 Do you have a link to that?
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From The Scotsman
IN NUMBERS
LABOUR
250,000 leaflets handed out
0 visits by party leader
2,000 activists
111 miles walked by Margaret Curran, the party's candidate
3,000 posters put up on lamp posts
40,000 households visited
20,000 telephone calls made
14,000 hands shaken by Ms Curran
SNP
560,000 leaflets handed out
10 visits by party leader
1,000+ activists
114 miles walked by John Mason, the party's candidate
5,000 posters put up on lampposts
40,000 households visited
60,000 telephone calls made
14,000 hands shaken by Mr Mason
If the numbers are right, then the higher number of activists on the day might do it for Labour.
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# 15 Skip_NC -
How does Brian know that Labour are "the lead party" in Glasgow East?
What verifiable facts is he basing that on?
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C'mon you good people of Glasgow East, just do it. Scotland is waiting.
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I'm presuming that my previous posts were referred to the moderators because I quoted some numbers from the Scotsman (copyright breach?).
The paper said that though many other things were equal between Labour and the SNP, Labour had the double the number of activists.
My suggestion was that that number of activists on polling day would allow the Labour machine to hold the seat.
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Why are comments being "referred to the moderators"?
What, then, is the point of pre-moderation?
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I just started reading Brians blogs a couple of days before he went on holiday. It was enjoyable reading the rants, conspiracy theories and amateur psephology from the usual suspects.Anyway, delighted that you're back Brian.
I was born in the Glasgow East constituency but the family moved out in the overspill. They tell me that it was a pit then and since my work took me there, I see that it can't have changed much.
Can I hazard a guess at the result? Labour will win by a few hundred votes, the SNP will claim a moral victory and in the UK general election Margaret Curran will build her vote considerably.
However, I do think that in Holyrood things will be utterly different and the SNP will consistently build on what they've achieved to date, winning many more labour seats.
The reality is that voters do see a difference between the parliaments and have made (and will make) a judgement that Scotland is best served in Scotland by the SNP. However, in the UK elections, the denizens of the likes of Glasgow East are just far too stupid to see how much that labour has and will defecate on them from a great height.
It'll take more than an earthquake, it'll take Labour removing the residents benefits to make something happen. Oh, did someone say that's actually what Labour are doing?..........
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It's not called a safe seat for nothing. While the media seems to be enthused about this election all evidence that I have seen shows most ordinary people really couldn't care less . If anyone manages to turn out in a hot sunny day in Glasgow in July to actually vote i still think old habits die hard. Labour has to lose it and there isn't a discernable ground swell of Labour hatred from what I can see.
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That was the by-election campaign that was, and so democracy now asserts itself and demonstrates itself to be, as Oscar Wilde expressed it in Soul of Man under Socialism, "the bludgeoning of the people by the people for the people". Or will Labour manage to lose Glasgow East in spite of that constituency's masochistic loyalty to it in the past?
How often in this campaign has one come across habitual Labour voters who have sorrowfully expressed the view that "Labour is no longer Labour" and that, therefore, the question of which candidate to vote for now needs to be pondered? Hence the phenomenally large proportion of the electorate believed to be undecided.
As for embodiments of evil, that must apply to whichever candidates have declared an intention to defy the will of God and the Bishop of Motherwell by supporting the Labour Party's Human Fertilization and Embryology Bill if elected, must it not? Anyway, time now for the people to weigh it all up and vote. I hope the weather keeps nice for them. And may the best man win.
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CommodeDoor
If you haven't already gone, I suggest you have an early night ready for your 5 a.m. alarm call.
The Herald are reporting at Rivals admit by-election result too close to call that armies of Labour and SNP campaigners will be doing maildrops then to beat the 7 a.m. deadline when the polls open.
Nighty, night, and do let us know how it goes at the polling station.
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Re #23 cousteau669
The pre-moderation is just a quick skim for glaring naughties. We're supposed to shop each other if we spot something less obvious.
To date, I've only complained about one of my own posts in order to get a glaring accidental factual inaccuracy fixed, which they did.
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Unfortunately, the labour lead is too large to overcome and I fully expect them to win by a couple of thousand votes.... Margaret Curran is a quality candidate but what has damaged her are comments or lack of them regarding the former MP David Marshall. She is keeping very quite about the office arrangements and expenses of the MP..she seems to suggest she never visited the office in 9 years ... I would have thought MP's and MSP's covering the same area would have worked together...she talks a good game but is clearly hiding something from the punters....
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Re #26 Greetings_Earthlings
A propos "Labour is no longer Labour"
There's a lovely direct quote from Frances Curran in the Scotsman's SSP moves to clear up Curran ballot paper confusion:
"We are distributing this leaflet as an aid to voters who might make the mistake of voting Labour thinking they are socialists."
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Bighullabaloo,
Perhaps Brian is making the (obvious) point that, currently, Labour holds Glasgow East and that the SNP is their chief rival.
I think it is clear to anyone who takes even a passing interest that it is going to be very close tomorrow. I am not banking on there being a result by the time I go to bed at around 3am UK time.
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Re #31 NCA999
"I would like to see the Lid Dem candidate win"
Most times I would side with the LibDems, but you only have to glance at the bookies' odds and the two (admittedly flawed) opinion polls to admit he has no chance of winning.
If a voter favours neither NuLabour nor the SNP then under our quasi-democratic system he has 3 choices:
1. Vote Labour to give Brown the opportunity of making yet more mistakes
2. Vote SNP in the hope of bringing Brown down and making life even more difficult for NuLabour
3. Vote for his beliefs, effectively the same as No.1
Option No.3 is passing the buck. Had I a vote, I would unhesitatingly choose No.2
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#27 Brownedov
When I was a Young Liberal, I remember getting a positive write-up for the Party in the local rag for our enthusiasm in leafleting at 6 am (I'd popped one through his letter box). What he didn't know was that I was doing it on the way back from a drunken all night party - which he would NOT have approved of.
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NCA999:
I was wondering where you were, you only ever comment to bad mouth the SNP.
The SNP did actually promise 1000 more police officers. Your post is quite lame, you totally ignored key points.
I'd like you to research exactly how long the police numbers have been falling and also the difference on the amount of recruits between the Labour/Lib Dem Government and the SNP Government.
Your current claim is heavily flawed and I am rather embarresed for you. You went all out against the SNP and begin ignoring other facts that should be taken into consideration about the SNP pledge.
The rest of your post is flawed. You simply are anti-SNP and Nationalist all together. Some could say prejudice...
Why are you only commenting on the SNP and the tiny part about the Lib Dem Candidate?
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#31
perhaps the SNP are struggling with some of there policies but thats to be expected since they are in the minority. As for the police force it may take time for that one to bear fruit... perhaps you would prefer what Labour would do i.e privatise them just like they are trying to do with the MOD's training arm as well as anything else they think they can fob off !
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C'moan the East enders...do the right thing and vote the way you should do...S.N.P.all the way.
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Oh...and welcome back Brian.
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#31 All drivel, of course. The police numbers in Glasgow have gone down in the short term because of Labour's previous neglect - the SNP can't just click their fingers and magic fully-formed officers out of the air, they have to be trained first, and I believe the first 150 new bobbies have just graduated Tullieallan and will be on the streets any day now.
And the stuff about the Tories forcing the SNP to stick to the manifesto promise is just nonsense. It was simply clever politics from the SNP, manufacturing a concession to give the Tories so that the Tories could save face in return for supporting a budget that might otherwise not have been passed. And if it hadn't, we'd be facing a whole new Holyrood election right now, not just a byelection. Is that what you want? Because I'm pretty sure the SNP would be happy, to coin a phrase, to bring it on.
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#35 and #39 good on ya fellas stop the lies !
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#41
From that rant i'd guess you are either a Labour canvasser or a Daily Record reporter. Desperation id say, but anyway im sure you will have provoked a lot of responses from my SNP collegues on here so im off to my bed and ill look forward to reading them at lunchtime .
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Welcome back Brian, trust you enjoyed your holiday.
Your electiona analysis is eagerly anticipated.
Interesting to read the balance between your piece and that in the broadsheets come Saturday.
May be peripheral spin offs to which I will latch on with much salacous delight.
best of luck Brian
Tom
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Brian,
A personal point. I told you off for this last year. As you work for the Beeb not the Army you have not been on 'annual leave', that is such desperate corporate speak. My boss does the same. Lighten up, you have been on your holidays.
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#32 Skip_NC
Wel, in that case, I imagine you won't mind me pointing out the obvious fact that if I was the winner of a race the last time it was run, it doesn't mean I am "the lead runner" in the current one!
Equally obvious is that fact that you ignored my original question and offered nothing whatsoever by the way of facts that allow Brian Taylor to make the claim that Labour were the lead party.
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Why did the sitting MP resign - we should be told.
Ill health does not cut it, we all remember dying MP's being wheeled in to vote so some vauge reference to ill health is a joke.
Calamity Brown needed this election like a hole in the head so to have one so quickly leaves a bad smell.
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Interested to have a look back to Hamilton South where the SNP reduced the Labour majority from 15878 in 1997 to 556 in the 1999 by election. However by 2001, the Labour majority had once again increased to over 10000!
I understand that there has been a swing of around 15% to the SNP but can't see where another 7% is going to come from. Surely most voters who plannned to switch from other parties to the SNP would have indicated this to the pollsters.
Another possible factor - will the good weather have an impact on turnout?
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What's up with the mods today?
oldnat's #19, irnbru_addict's #24, my #33 and philandkirsty's #37 have been held up in moderation referral since last night.
Have the house rules been modified for election day, I wonder?
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Re #50 Ron237
Michael Crick finally started covering this issue last night on Newsnight. Much too little, much too late.
To be fair, he started getting on the case on his blog on the 15th with a thread about a different Scottish MP who's been so long "on the sick" that No.10 wondered if he was still alive. That story and my comments on it suggesting that it was odd Marshall had not done the same were spiked the next day.
See also a number of comments on Brian's earlier threads. It's unfortunate that Brian wasn't around to read them.
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As my previous post has been referred to the moderators for no apparent reason, I have removed the internet link that it contained on the assumption that that may have something to do with it.
Election day has dawned, and now the chickens can be seen wandering about the thoroughfares of Glasgow East, coming home to roost, as you Earthlings say.
However the cookie will crumble in the Glasgow East by-election and however it will all pan out, it has been instructive and diverting to examine the personal qualities of the candidates separately from their politics, although the two are, of course, intertwined. Without going deeply into that at this stage, I think it may be worthwhile to share a simple observation, for what it may be worth.
Wherever I wander and wherever I roam, I find in the general population here as elsewhere essentially only two types of people, as it seems to me. On the one hand there is the man or woman whose thoughts, words and deeds are plainly shaped and formed by a set of principles of one sort or another, an ethical construct within which he or she dwells and which can constitute a firm foundation for humane and trustworthy interaction with others. Such people can radiate the finest qualities of humanity. On the other hand there are the others, who are much more numerous and whom one is wise to look out for.
A person who is without principle is an incomplete human being unworthy of membership of any legislature anywhere in the known universe. Here endeth the lesson. Toodloothenoo.
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Re #57 Rev_S_Campbell
& #41 NCA999
I fear you're right, but someone seems to have read my #56 and sorted out last night's pending referrals. Whatever's happening is not the fault of the mods.
oldnat recognised his #16 may have gone overboard on direct quoting, but I fear someone has started retaliating by complaining about NCA999's #41.
As my comments above show, I didn't agree with it but I certainly don't think it broke any House Rules.
Come on folks, if this goes on the whole thread will soon be marked that way and we'll be left with nothing to discuss.
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Moderation on this topic is now becoming so selective as to be sinister.
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Re #64 Rev_S_Campbell
Untrue, as the fact your #64 got through should have made clear.
It's the referrals by pressing the "Complain about this comment" links that started to cause havoc, but the mods seem to have cleared the backlog.
Do, please, read my #62.
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Brownedov #62: Correct! There is far too much complaining here. I suffered quite badly about a week ago and tried appealing without success.
Almost anyone can find offensiveness, personal attacks, etc., if they are determined to do so. Trouble is, they are not sensitive people - they just want to silence opponents, usually when they have lost the argument.
But I don't accept that moderation has any political side to it. It is the bloggers at fault.
Perhaps if a new house rule were introduced, allowing the mods to dismiss frivolous or malicious complaints.
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Nice to have you back.
Can I ask one thing? Can you please not give us mental images of you lying half dressed on a beach somewhere. I'm trying to eat my lunch here!
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Jeeezo...this censorship is nothing short of Orwellian...a conspiracist would say the government is doing it's best to quell an uprising ha ha!
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Re #68 brigadierjohn
"Perhaps if a new house rule were introduced, allowing the mods to dismiss frivolous or malicious complaints."
I'm afraid the mods would still have to read all the referred posts first. A warning re possible cancellation of ID on the "Complain about a message" intermediate page might help but it isn't a terribly onerous process to re-register and even blocking of specific email addresses would not stop determined repeat offenders.
Ultimately, like the 42 days issue, it has no absolute answer: Can you defend freedom by restricting it?
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#64 - Bang on. I dared to criticise the Labour Party - My comment has disappeared
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#68
I must confess to being a newbie in terms of posting on this site but seeing some of the "debate" that goes on elsewhere re Scottish politics, I have a degree of sympathy for the moderators.
Dons flak jacket lol.
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I agree with the argument that some people are probably just annoyed that they have no 'comebacks' so just report them, I hope i'm wrong though.....
Anyway, moderation aside, here's hoping for a high turnout tonight and a little less apathy from the voting public!
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Are those who have taken the time to write and complain about the complaints the same people who will complain about the lack of time to write complaints regarding complaining?
Wansanshoo.
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I think when politicians show a little less apathy, then, and only then will the public show some interest. For Example:
1997 Mohammed Sanwar bribery scandal.
1998 Lord Irvine's £650,000 wallpaper.
2000 David Blunkett fails to declare income from Wimbledon home.
2001 Hindujahs receive passport after donating funds.
2002 Enron accused of buying access after donation.
2004 70 % of Scottish quango appointees have Labour links.
2006 Prescott pays no council tax
You want people to go out and vote for this lot?
Wansanshoo.
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We have had to close this comments thread as too many posts were breaking the house rules in place on Polling day. The BBC guidelines around reporting elections are here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/editorialguidelines/edguide/politics/reportingukelec.shtml
And more information on the rules on blogs, boards and other BBC communities can be found here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/messageboards/newguide/elections.shtml
along with information on the rules other broadcasters work to. Normal service will be resumed once the polls close this evening.
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