Do you feel lucky?

Brian Taylor | 21:12 UK time, Thursday, 24 July 2008

The polls have closed. The count is underway.

First and best info, of course, here on the BBC.

First, a little background. Labour comes to this Scottish Westminster by-election - on the back of two catastrophic defeats in England.

They lost Crewe and Nantwich - with a 17% swing to the Tories.

And they came an embarrassing fifth in Henley.

But this is Glasgow East. Where they normally weigh the Labour vote.

In various guises, it's been Labour since 1922. Since the Labour movement started winning at all, they've won the east end of Glasgow.

Artificial result

To win tonight, the SNP needs to record a voting swing from Labour of just under 22%.

That's huge - but they've done it before. Winnie Ewing took Hamilton in 1967 with a swing of nearly 38%.

That's artificial, though. The SNP was starting from zero - because the party didn't fight the seat in 1966.

But in 1973, Margo Macdonald recorded a swing of nearly 27% to oust Labour.

Then in 1988, Jim Sillars - now Margo's husband - took Govan for the SNP with a massive swing from Labour of 33%.

Scotland, he declared, was on the march.

Those are the famous SNP victories from Labour. Repeat that level of performance tonight - and the SNP will win.

But. More commonly, the SNP has forecast victory - and even recorded a good showing - only to fall short in contests with Labour.

Big swings

In 1978, Donald Dewar held off a Nationalist challenge to win Glasgow Garscadden.

The same year, George Robertson entered the Commons by defeating the SNP in the iconic seat of Hamilton.

In 1989, a year after Jim Sillars' Govan triumph, Alex Neil registered a 15 point swing from Labour in Glasgow Central. But it wasn't enough to win.

There were two by-elections in Paisley in November 1990. Two strong SNP performances. Two seats held by Labour.

In 1994, Monklands East - perhaps the most bitterly fought by-election in Scotland. A swing to the SNP of nearly 20% - but Helen Liddell held the seat for Labour.

Paisley South, November 1997, decent swing to the SNP - but Douglas Alexander won for Labour.

1999 - and it's Hamilton again. Hamilton South. A swing of more than 22% to the Nationalists.

Labour holds

Not enough on the night - although it would do this evening for the SNP.

Glasgow Anniesland in 2000 after Donald Dewar died. Falkirk West in 2000. Livingston in 2005. All Westminster seats with a strong SNP challenge. All held by Labour.

So the question tonight for the SNP is not: Do you feel lucky? The question should be: Is this Govan or Garscadden? Hamilton '67 or Hamilton '99?

Find out on the BBC.

0130 BST

Further update..... So a recount then. Despite the absence of an outcome, thought I'd post a little blog to keep the pot boiling.

Consider the environment here - Labour's third safest seat in Scotland - that is untill tonight. If the SNP do win, as seems likely, they will have pulled off a stunning result against their rivals.

Of course, we must await the final outcome but it would seem evident that the people of the East End of Glasgow have turned against Labour.

Or, more precisely, that their disquiet, discontent and indeed anger at their circumstances have combined to produce a poor result for the party which has held this seat since whenever.

The scunner factor has been well to the fore.

Again, we must await the final outcome. However, I believe that Labour would make a mistake if they were to attempt to blame Gordon Brown solely for their poor performance.

I confess I have only spent a few days in the constituency but my impression, borne out by others, is that folk are fed up with what they are currently hearing and receiving from Labour, not just its party leader.

For the SNP, further proof that they can turn out a vote in areas which were previously sceptical, if not hostile. It is a further tribute to their increasingly impressive electoral machine.

More later...... when we have the result.

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1. At 10:17pm on 24 Jul 2008, warblers wrote:
Careful Brian, the PM's standard is to just provide lists of stats. Don't want you emulating now GB :)

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2. At 10:23pm on 24 Jul 2008, cynicalHighlander wrote:
Fingers crossed. Am listening to Sawney Bean I hope the result is the same.

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3. At 10:36pm on 24 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Surely the first question for tonight should be:
What's the turnout?

As we've been discussing in your absence, that's likely to be key.

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4. At 10:49pm on 24 Jul 2008, power_to_the_ppl wrote:
I feel like I'm having a flutter on the horses. Ooh I'm getting a hot flush, I'd better open a window!

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5. At 10:49pm on 24 Jul 2008, Skip_NC wrote:
Sounds like a highish turnout. Does that mean Labour managed to get its vote out? If the numbers on the previous thread are even fairly close, it sounds like Labour have held on.

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6. At 10:53pm on 24 Jul 2008, Skip_NC wrote:
Are those of us outside of the UK going to be able to watch the by-election coverage live?

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7. At 10:54pm on 24 Jul 2008, oldnat wrote:
Think I'll wait for the result before I post again. Unusual for this blog, I know, but not long now.

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8. At 10:56pm on 24 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
If the 46% turnout predicted on the BBC's Glasgow by-election polls close is right, the SNP will have to have converted many more voters than anyone has predicted.

I hope I'm wrong but the early indication must be a Labour win.

OTOH, this goes hugely against the decline in turnout in English by-elections of late (Davis excluded of course) so something must have motivated voters to go out and vote, especially during the Glasgow Fair.

Nothing watchable on TV or something a candidate said, I wonder?

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9. At 10:59pm on 24 Jul 2008, irnbru_addict wrote:
If, as I suspect, Labour win by a few hundred or 1000 or so votes, it doesn't portend well for them. Of the three constituencies mentioned by Brian: Anniesland, Falkirk and Livingston, the SNP now hold two at Holyrood.
If Labour wins, the SNP will reap the benefit at the next Holyrood poll.

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10. At 11:05pm on 24 Jul 2008, derekbarker wrote:
The green side of the east end has faded,its all over bar the counting?on reflection whose won the day and does it matter,there has been an awakening in public life about politicians and just exactly what can thay bring to enhance their constituents,what ever the result?the need for a candidate to campaign with solid pre-ordained party commitments must be the way forward,different horses need different courses and different constituencies need different investments,unless an MP can prove effective in their constituency, then in all probability the less the public will trust them.

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11. At 11:08pm on 24 Jul 2008, power_to_the_ppl wrote:
re: 3

I think turnout is around 46%, according to 'early indications' on the 'Glasgow byelections poll close' page

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12. At 11:49pm on 24 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #6 Skip_NC

I'm in the same boat, but for once you have a choice. If you want video try the STV Special. For live audio only, try the BBC Radio Scotland iPlayer.

STV have just announced turnout at 42%

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13. At 11:55pm on 24 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Latest turnout figure is 42.25%

Phew - that means we're in the either way area from my predictions on the "Labour lagging in by-election race" thread and I'm off the hook.

On STV, they're still predicting very close - a couple of hundred either way.

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14. At 00:05am on 25 Jul 2008, shewhoguards wrote:
Despite being in the UK I can't watch the live coverage. Apparently your system doesn't recognise mobile broadband as from this country? Anyway, please keep us updated.

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15. At 00:09am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Not enough bandwidth to watch STV and keep this page going so I'll chat to you all later

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16. At 00:29am on 25 Jul 2008, Jambo_ree wrote:
The more that the SNP say that it's a great result to even get close after the majority Labour had, the more it looks as if Labour may have shaded it.

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17. At 00:30am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #14 shewhoguards

Click on the STV Special link in my #12

I'm back on the Radio Scotland link because they have nothing new to say or show for at least 30 mins.

Both STV and Radio Scotland now think Labour looking as though they've lost.

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18. At 00:32am on 25 Jul 2008, Jambo_ree wrote:
Recount anyone?

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19. At 00:36am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Whoops! The iPlayer claims to be Radio Scotland FM, but it's putting out the MW stream and has just switched off the by-election onto a jazz programme. I love jazz, but there are times and places!

Back to STV, I'm afraid.

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20. At 00:48am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Mason just arrived at the count looking VERY happy. STV lot now fairly confident he's won.

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21. At 00:49am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV's "Labour can't lose" pundits starting to develop their excuses

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22. At 00:51am on 25 Jul 2008, Skip_NC wrote:
Thanks for the links Brownedov. I spent ages trying to find something and no luck till now

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23. At 00:51am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Ex Labour spin doctor: "Looking very very bad for Labour"

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24. At 00:52am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV From the count - SNP by 1500 unofficial

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25. At 00:54am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Declaration now expected in 20 mins

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26. At 01:10am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV shows Maggie looking very unhappy.
NuLab Europe Minister (keep forgetting his name) in total denial.
Nothing new then.

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27. At 01:14am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Sorry - The NuLab minister is Jim Murphy - should have remembered his name from the awful performance he put up when presenting the Lisbon Treaty bill

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28. At 01:14am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV from the hall - only Q now is margin of SNP victory. LibDems probably 5th

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29. At 01:21am on 25 Jul 2008, Jambo_ree wrote:
Here it comes!

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30. At 01:24am on 25 Jul 2008, Jambo_ree wrote:
Frank McAveety looking very unhappy

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31. At 01:26am on 25 Jul 2008, Dennis_Junior wrote:
Who is going to win and what is the time the results will come in....

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32. At 01:26am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV now back in hall. Expect earthquake soon. Murphy droning on in denial. Qs now will Maggie lose next time as MSP.

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33. At 01:28am on 25 Jul 2008, Jambo_ree wrote:
Recount!!

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34. At 01:32am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV pictures of some kind of recount, but not obvious who for - may be just minor party deposits or 3rd to 9th places

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35. At 01:33am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV Labour asked for recount because SNP majority is small

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36. At 01:36am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Provision margin SNP by 354
Recount expected to be 30 mins

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37. At 01:39am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV Recounting Frances Curran's votes at Maggie's request.

Wrong info re LibDems - probably 4th

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38. At 01:42am on 25 Jul 2008, Boring_username wrote:
Just wanted to say thanks to the people posting on here.

Trying to get info on the progress of the count from New Zealand isn't the easiest thing in the world but you guys are great!

Unfortunately everything else seems to be audio or video - both of which I can't use at work! :(

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39. At 01:57am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV Murphy droning on again that Labour can recover - STV commentator butts in saying Labour very poor opposition in Holyrood

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40. At 02:00am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV Declaration in 5-10 mins

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41. At 02:04am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV Murphy still droning on but pix back in hall on very happy Mason

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42. At 02:09am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV Sillars get a word in for the SNP - bigger than Crewe

Newsflash recount LOSES Labour votes!

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43. At 02:11am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Damn! Wish I'd had that bet on the SNP!

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44. At 02:13am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
STV pix of Mason shaking hands - podium assembling for the declaration

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45. At 02:16am on 25 Jul 2008, irnbru_addict wrote:
Never mind the politics, who's the SNP babe in the yellow dress?
Labour have, in contrast, two very unattractive skinny guys.
Thank goodness for BBC live streaming!

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46. At 02:22am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Declaration
Curran 10912
Mason 11477

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47. At 02:23am on 25 Jul 2008, bighullabaloo wrote:
Newsflash!

Brigadierjohn's cigar explodes.
The awful truth dawns on him. He realises he's lost the argument - but can't bring himself to admit it.

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48. At 02:29am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Mason speech: An earthquake off the Richter scale. Labour MPs across Scotland will be quaking in their boots

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49. At 02:31am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #47 bighullabaloo

Magnanimous in victory, I see

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50. At 02:35am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Details are now coming through on SNP stuns Labour in Glasgow East so I can stop being an honorary teleprinter. Good night New Zealand.

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51. At 02:36am on 25 Jul 2008, bighullabaloo wrote:
# 49 Brownedov -

To the victor the spoils.

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52. At 02:37am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Correction to my #46

Curran 10,912
Mason 11,277

I misheard the Mason count

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53. At 02:38am on 25 Jul 2008, karinm wrote:
Ya beauty

right who wants to discuss just HOW WRONG that poll was and why?

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54. At 02:39am on 25 Jul 2008, karinm wrote:
ps YA DANCER>

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55. At 02:46am on 25 Jul 2008, bighullabaloo wrote:
Brownedov -

Don't forget we have just suffered a week of listening to Labour media telling us Labour are "the lead party" and Labour are "17 points ahead" and Labour are this, and Labour are that.
None of it was true. Just the same old insult to our intelligence - a blatant attempt to manipulate the perceptions of the general public.

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56. At 02:59am on 25 Jul 2008, bighullabaloo wrote:
Well, that's me off now.
One last thought for the brigadier: he who laughs last, laughs longest.

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57. At 02:59am on 25 Jul 2008, MathCampbell wrote:
Wow.

So, since the elections done and dusted now, who's gonna give me odds on Gordon Brown having a P45 by the Autumn conference?

What do you mean 50-1 ON???
Damn.

Congrats to John Mason, he truly did deserve to win, he's a fantastic councillor, and he'll make a fantastic MP.

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58. At 03:01am on 25 Jul 2008, HovellingHermit wrote:
The New Labour camp of professional politicians have only ever known how to belong to the political elite, from university, they moved directly into the political world. Unlike previous Labour politicians, they have not worked their way up, have never worked at a real job in their lives and have no idea what ever about the lives of ordinary people, be they in Crewe or Glasgow.

The by-election defeats I hope are an indication that people are fed up of the lies and attitude of these self serving, power crazy "elite" and are prepared to give others a chance.

I only wish that there were more candidates who were from the grass roots and sincerely had the best interests of their constituents as their paramount objective.

All the best to John Mason on a superb win, I hope he repays the faith of all who voted for him in Glasgow by representing their interests and not of "special interest groups".

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59. At 03:03am on 25 Jul 2008, Briggen wrote:
Congratulations to John Mason and the Scottish National Party.

If the SNP can get a swing of 22.54 per cent against Labour in Labour heartland such as Glasgow East in a Westminster by-election, it can certainly make very serious progress indeed against that party at the next UK general election.

Loyal Labour support has long stood in the way of Scottish independence. That unquestioning support has now collapsed. The SNP has shown tonight that it can sweep Labour aside and achieve its ambitions for Scotland.

Message to Labour from Glasgow East: time's up.

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60. At 03:13am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #55 bighullabaloo

Thanks again for your input on our joint predictions. Seems we underestimated very slightly but given the quality of the data we had I'm astonished that we were right there with the better tipsters - just a shade conservative (with a tiny c), but in the frame.

If nothing else the exchange of information on all sides has shown how careful one has to be before taking information at face value.

At least I shan't be having a word sandwich for breakfast.

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61. At 03:17am on 25 Jul 2008, johnhancock76 wrote:
#47, bighullaballoo

I'd much rather have heard that the brigadier himself had exploded rather than merely his cigar.

I am afraid that you are deceiving yourself if you really do think that he is capable of realizing that he has lost an argument.

This is not in the nature of the beast. Who cares, anyway?

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62. At 03:21am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #45 irnbru_addict

Lucky you. Auntie wasn't even streaming it to all in the UK. The STV coverage was worldwide.

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63. At 03:24am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #55 bighullabaloo

Well our collective brainpower seems to have seen through it, but a close-run thing.

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64. At 03:26am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #58 HovellingHermit

Do you really WANT NuLabour to join the real world?

Sssshhh, please.

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65. At 03:51am on 25 Jul 2008, bighullabaloo wrote:
# 61 johnhancock76

"I am afraid that you are deceiving yourself if you really do think that he is capable of realizing that he has lost an argument."

Okay, I know it's not nice to laugh. But unfortunately for him actual events are stubbornly refusing to support his version of reality.

It's a tough world.

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66. At 03:57am on 25 Jul 2008, bighullabaloo wrote:
#63 Brownedov

Our common sense was telling us that what we were being force fed was politically biased and not to be trusted.

They can go on serving it up as long as they want but people are just not swallowing it any more.

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67. At 04:05am on 25 Jul 2008, Brownedov wrote:
Re #66 bighullabaloo

Well said, but enough for tonight I think. I have an appointment to keep with a large Talisker. Goodnight all

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68. At 05:43am on 25 Jul 2008, HovellingHermit wrote:
#64 Brownedov

Perish the thought, New Labour in the real world? It is bad enough to have them in this nightmare I have been in since 1997!

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