Sobering thoughts
I suspect we may be in danger of leaping a little too readily to particular conclusions in respect of today's analysis of Scotland's suicide rate.
In advance, a couple of caveats. I have not yet read the full report prepared by a team at Manchester University: it is not available until later. However, I have studied the summary issued by the university.
This declares that "alcohol and drug misuse mean Scots are almost twice as likely to kill or take their own life compared with people in England and Wales".
These horrific figures deserve serious scrutiny, by politicians and public alike. I am not sure, however, that we would be entirely wise to follow the conclusion of today's report which is that support services should be refocused to prioritise action on dependence rather than the present spotlight upon mental health.
To be fair, the report suggests a number of other reforms to clinical care. The author, Professor Louis Appleby, set out his case sensibly and moderately on BBC Radio Scotland this morning.
But is there not, at root, a logical fallacy here? Are we perhaps at risk of confusing cause and coterminosity?
The researchers scrutinised cases of suicide and homicide. They discerned that, in a substantial proportion of cases, there was an antecedent history of alcohol and/or drug misuse.
Doubts increase
From this, they surmise that the alcohol and drug dependence is the cause of the subsequent homicide or suicide.
Logically, however, might not the two factors point to another pre-existing cause? Might not the same individual, perhaps under stress from poverty or personal inadequacy, turn first to drink and then to violence or self-harm?
Alcohol and violence may indeed both be present in the same case. But can we truly assume that one causes the other?
My doubts increase when I consider the statistics in more depth. Scotland has a higher suicide rate than in England. But Scotland's rate has declined sharply.
How does that square with evidence that alcohol misuse is increasing - if alcohol is to named as the causal influence on suicide?
How can the causal problem increase - while the claimed result declines, albeit still remaining above the level in England?
I'm 
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This paper has led to some really good sensationalist headlines this week.
"alcohol and drug misuse mean Scots are almost twice as likely to kill or take their own life compared with people in England and Wales".
Last time I checked the homicide level in Scotland wasn't double what it is in the rest of the uk. You could quite easily draw that conclusion from the sentence "scots are almost twice as likely to kill..."
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"Scotland has a higher suicide rate than in England. But Scotland's rate has declined sharply."
I would not be surprised if that decline begins after the Scottish National Party won the Scottish Elections.
However, we should first figure out the main differences between England and Scotland then attempt to discover what exactly triggers Scots to commit suicide or self harm.
If alcohol is not the problem then could it be the type of society that we live in?
Could the people who live in Scotland feel that there is no escape from their lifestyles? No path out of poverty? Lack of opportunites for those who have real dreams?
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This comment has been referred to the moderators. Explain.
Thank God that in this case (unlike in the case of David Davis) we have a critical journalist getting right to the crucial issue.
I'm sure that Prof Appleby did set out his case moderately - but that's not what the media generally reports.
Also, with all due respect to the Prof, no scientific research can ever be quite free of the influence of "grantsmanship"; and this applies a hundredfold when perfectly valid scientific research stops sitting in a complex scientific paper and has to take some media-friendly form.
At the moment, the prevailing fashion (set by those moralistic windbags down in Westminster) is to blame anything unpleasant that ever happens in Britain on alcohol and (Shock horror!), other, ILLEGAL, drugs. (I'm just waiting for some numpty to start blaming fundamentalist Islamic terrorism on alcohol abuse).
This is an easy move for government, because
a) It makes it the individual's fault for being a silly child and drinking too much, or being a bad law-breaker and taking something illegal.
b) Any other causes, such as social deprivation or lack of opportunity, can be ignored.
Sadly it also risks engendering an attitude towards those at risk of suicide that is pure poison: far from having the real, unknown, multitudinous causes of their mental illness inquired into and addressed with an open mind, these people will be lectured on their use of alcohol and drugs.
This kind of treatment of people is of course also the fashion - and doesn't only apply to those with mental health problems.
I believe this zeitgeist has made either Prof Appleby, or his media statements a little careless about post hoc propter hoc - the fallacy you rightly zoom in on.
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#2 Thomas_Porter
Trust a nationalist to lower the tone of the debate!
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I agree with Brian that alcohol and drug misuse tend to be the result of problems, rather than the start of them.
I also agree with the findings of the reports that the introduction of support groups for younger people could help and contribute towards removing the social taboo of mental health amongst the young.
Overall it would be awful if these findings clouded the decisions made to remedy social problems and those of mental health. For example, raising the price of alcohol within Scotland will not rememdy anything, it will simply cause those with a problem already on the breadline to increase their spending and increase their problems.
It will be interesting to read the report and discover whether they suggest a more indepth study into the causes of alcoholism and drug misuse and how these begin and if there is a targetable pattern within this; rather than a sweeping statement that drug and alcohol misuse causes suicide and homicide.
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#5 deducted3points:
Trust a Unionist to whine about a Nationalists comment.
Even when that comment is already stupid enough that many would rather laugh at it then take the post seriosly.
Here is some advise. If you do not like what you are reading then ignore the post and move on.
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Many people with undiagnosed or untreated mental health problems will self-medicate on street drugs, tobacco and alcohol.
The priority is to change public perceptions of mental illness and seek earlier interventions and support for those who suffer.
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Thomas
I do hope your tongue was firmly in your cheek when you tried to turn this into a party political issue.
Like some of the earlier threads on drugs use/misuse, this is an issue that trancends party bickering and should be treated with the gravity it deserves.
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I must agree with everyone that supposes that the alcohol and drugs are another symptom along with the violence and not the cause. The majority of people with drink and drugs problems have some sort of underlying mental illness be that depression or schizophrenia and they are “self medicating” to make themselves feel better. No one takes drugs to make themselves feel worse.
Could it be that one of the underlying problems in Scotland is that our mental health services are woefully inadequate with far too few residential beds? Couple this with a culture that idolises alcohol and violence, while refusing to accept that mental illness is a treatable illness like flu or a broken leg and you have a recipe for high levels of suicide and self harm.
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I completely agree that alcohol misuse and suicide are far more likely to be two effects of some other cause than to be the cause and effect of eachother, but I think that's besides the point here.
In the fight against suicide how do we recognise people at risk? We certainly can't wait until suicide attempts are made so isn't it sensible then to see what other symptoms have a correlation with suicide? Clearly, alcohol and drug misuse is one of those warning signs that we need to pay more attention to.
The point is that someone who has drug or alcohol problems is more likely to suffer suicide and so by targetting those people with the required help and support we are more likely to have better results in the fight against suicide.
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To correct the first comment to this story, Scotland has a dramatically higher murder rate than the rest of the UK. The figures (I believe for 2006/7) were 2.12 murders per 100,000 in Scotland compared with 1.23 per 100,000 in England and Wales. A sobering reality. These figures compare with 5.7 for the USA (in 2006). In some ways these figures are even worse than they first appear. In Glasgow, the figure is 6.17 which is higher than almost any other European city and compares with 2.64 for London. Also, the numbers of murders are very highly biased towards young males. The rate for males age group 21-29 is 9.9 per 100,000 and for 16-20 is 8.2 (all of Scotland, not sure what the Glasgow figure is). It is therefore a very significant cause of death in young males.
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Fit_Like:
I did not try and turn this into a Party Political Issue.
If you bothered to read my second comment then you would of realised I already made clear that my first comment was not to be taken to seriosly.
You can choose to ignore my words and even twist them and use it against me. However, you will look like an idiot since I already admitted that my comment was stupid and it was suppose to be.
Since you may not understand where a joke begins and ends then I will repeat my opinion.
"If alcohol is not the problem then could it be the type of society that we live in?
Could the people who live in Scotland feel that there is no escape from their lifestyles? No path out of poverty? Lack of opportunites for those who have real dreams?"
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Having worked with people who tick all the boxes in the past, the three, drink, drugs and self harm/suicide, often go hand in hand. I would say though, that the mental health problem underlies the drink and drugs issues, and that they then make the mental health issue harder to work with until a person can see no end to their problems.
Being out of your brain on drink or drugs can actually make suicide seem a more logical course of action.
Yes, we need to deal with the dependency issues, but the mental health issue should not be ignored and should always be treated. Personally I blame the weather. The lack of sunlight, especially in the Highlands over the course of much of the year, is definitely a factor.
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Your instincts are good, Brian. We should neither rush to accept this report nor jump to our own conclusions.
Suicides, whether alcohol-related or not, are not necessarily symptoms of social despair. I knew a well-off man whose wife learned he was a transvestite, the most harmless of deviants, and the same day he drove head-on into a truck on a straight road. Others do it when they know wrongdoing is about to be discovered, or they have lost a loved one through death or rejection. Drink may fuel the act, but it's not the cause. Of course, there are the drunken, maudlin stereotypical Scots. But few turn to suicide.
Drink abuse is all around us, but there are many types of drunk: the arrogant, aggressive type, the violent woman, the nobody-loves-me "victim" and those who just want to weep in a corner.
The solution may be in social care, but making a drunk better off is not necessarily doing him a favour. Pending the arrival of better ideas, the court must have a part to play. I'd favour 10-year mandatory minimum sentences, without remission, for drug dealing at any level, and immediate closure, pending trial, for any shop or pub accused of breaching the licensing laws.
Making drink less accessible and more expensive will not stop drunkenness. It will just mean the families of the drinkers will suffer when the money goes faster. It's a bit like lowering speed limits. The nutters will speed whatever the limit. It's also like banning guns after Dunblane: hundreds of decent sportsmen lost their pastimes, and not a single criminal failed to get a gun. Parts of Glasgow are like the Wild West now.
But, call me old-fashioned, society seems to have lost the knack of a good friend or family member putting a protective arm around someone with a problem. It can be very, very difficult, but it's the best form of social work I know.
We all want to be scandalised about this and chuck in our tuppence worth. But how many of us would go out and pick up a neighbour, or a stranger, lying drunk in the street. It starts with all of us as individuals.
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Thomas
I have no problem with the points you raise, in fact they are very good questions. I just don't think this is a subject worthy of humour.
For the record, your second post hadn't actually cleared the moderators when I posted my first one so I wasn't in a position to read it at that point.
I wasn't having ago at you prsonally nor trying to twist your words, it's just, as I said, for reasons that I'm not prepared to go into at the moment, I don't feel that this is a topic that needs that kind of humour.
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Thomas: You are immature, and your comments are a disgrace. Take a look at yourself. Fit-Like tried to offer a helpful comment and you turned on him like a spoiled brat. Grow up!
On a serious note, vis a vis earlier blogs, BBC London made a good effort at tackling Scotland's problems on the news. Long reports, sensibly presented, with proper experts, and all about Scotland. Perhaps a message is getting across? Early days.
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Sobering Thoughts.
Help the paitents suffering from mental health problems, let's get them back in state care with the right facilities and properly trained medical staff.
It currently costs the taxpayer £50,000 per year to keep each self abusing drug or alcahol dependent lowlife alive.
I would rather this money was used on the innocent victims of mental health.
I only have two words for the addicts: Solitary Confinement.
Wansanshoo.
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I think the annoyance is in the generalisation of the term.
For example the comment about the high level of murder within Glasgow this is obviously related to gang culture within Glasgow and is a problem within young males.
It is daft to state that someone in Scotland who consumes a large quantity of alcohol is more likely to kill someone than in england-the problems are much more deep rooted-we do not need people in Manchester University to tell us that there is a problem when people are murdering others and that this must be due to scotlands higher consumption of alcohol.
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Fit_Like:
My apologies. I was unaware that my second post was not shown at the time and assumed that you chose to ignore it all together.
John:
I suggest you keep out of what does not concern you. Indeed, Fit_Like did contribute a reasonable comment but I got the wrong end of the stick and was unware that my own comment was not on public show at the time of his/her post and I have apologised for my mistake.
However, your nose was not required in our 'conversation' and your 'personal' attacks against a stranger shows just who is immature here.
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Thomas: There are no personal conversations here. It's an open forum. If you really must join in, expect a reaction. Now stop digging.
Wansanshoe: As always, brutal and politically incorrect, but....
Yes, Care in the Community has been a total disaster for the poor souls (not lowlifes) kicked out of institutions to fend for themselves. Mentally ill people feeling the pressure of their condition are turned away when they go back to hospitals and ask to be taken in. Some turn violent, some walk in front of trains. Some of the brightest people I've ever met have been alcohol-dependent. I'm sure it's the same for drugs.
The liberal notion that "we can't keep people loocked up in Victorian buildings for ever" was acclaimed by governments determined to save money despite the social cost. I would say "Okay, let's have some nice modern buildings equipped to contain these people in reasonable comfort. I mean, we do it for jailbirds, so why not the sick?"
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I-Like-Avocados
This report was commissioned by the Scottish Government - so it's not like Manchester University are commenting on this without being asked !!
Also, I must assume that the Scottish Government saw this report before it was published and so therefore substantially agree with its findings.
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John:
Fit_likes response was directed at me, was it not?
It must be old age kicking in. I am Thomas and you are John now.
On a further note, I think I speak for most regular bloggers here that 'personal' attacks on someone is never justified, especially over the internet.
Agian I will repeat my position so those who read this later can not mistake my 'joke' from my real opinion.
I suggested that society is the cause of our suicide problems. When you wake up and find that no one is around to motivate you into better things, where your life becomes routine, where you find sleep may be the best solution to solve your pointless life then how do you think these people cope?
Turn to drink and drugs then you discover several years later that you have accomplished nothing?
For some suicide may be the answer and who could blame them? They have nothing, nothing to live for, nothing to show.
Sure. You can blame the individual quite easily but you have to ask how could someone born so pure turn into someone who could choose death rather then life?
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Bangingonabout
I know but just because the Scottish Goverment commission it does not mean i have to agree with it or that it is correct for that matter!
Plus i was taught throughout my University degree to treat statistical reports with caution-published or not-however it would be better to read the report before making a full judgement-i should really have said that the media generalisation is what the problem appears to be.
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Frankly, I can well understand why the type of society in which we live might be thought to have just possibly something to do with why someone might wish to make a quick exit from it by taking his or her own life.
For many people in Scotland there must seem to be few opportunities and few reasons to hope for improvement of their lot. No one should wish to be in a state of dependency, but some people simply are stuck with it in one form or another. A country which also is in a state of dependency can hardly be of much help to all those poor unfortunates, whose state of dependency it is in fact itself arguably at least partly responsible for by virtue of being in a state of dependency itself.
There is nothing party-political about looking one's country in the eye and daring to say to it that it is in a mess and should snap out of it before matters get worse. The solution to problems of dependency is independence. Didn't you know that? Dare to stand on your own two feet, Scotland, without being propped up by anything or anyone, and you will begin to solve your problems, and those embarrassing statistics which give our masters so much to gloat over and to confirm their worst suspicions about us will begin to go away.
You most certainly did not lower the tone, Thomas. You raised it. Incidentally, try typing a little more slowly. I fear that your keyboard is having some difficulty in keeping up with the lightning rapidity of your thought processes.
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Aw, not another one! Vote for independence and lower the suicide rate! I suppose it's the oil fund again, how many problems are waiting to be solved by it?
Listen up folks, this is supposed to be a serious issue about people who need help, not party political broadcast.
Arguing with the Nats is like arguing with the Speaking Clock. It never listens... just keeps banging out the same monotonous message day and night.
Maybe one of you could suggest a positive course of action? Anything.
At the third stroke....
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How about we stop glamourising gritty urban decay in Scottish fiction? If some film director wants to do a film about Scotland, don't give them a grant unless it's a happy, upbeat tale.
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Anyone know what the murder/ suicide rate is in London?
I know this is a serious issue, but I always find the sensationalism with which it is treated in the media is hard to take , not to mention ,often inaccurate.
I would like to see the whole report first.
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I get angry and upset when I read these things. I live in Scotland and personally lost my brother to suicide at the start of the year.
When people research these things for studies what exactly is it they look at?!
Yes my brother drank sometimes, and yes there were drugs in his system but in the majority they were paracetamol and anti-depressants (which he didn't want and took for a wee while).
More importantly he was a very private person who eventually went to the doctor for help but could only be given tablets, which was not the answer he was looking for.
We found out after he was in a lot of debt which was only exacerbated by the fact that he was able to have at least 9 credit cards.
He needed help but didn't know what to do, how to talk about it and probably felt a massive failure as a male, father, boyfriend, person, etc.
We had no idea that things in his life were going so wrong for him.
I think you'll find that the drink and drugs people turn to are a cushion to make them feel better, forget, etc.
Surely money could be better spent on a more hands-on type centre(s) where you can meet people like yourself or just talk with trained people, receive alternative healing stress-relieving treatments, workgroups/activity groups where you could enjoy exercise, art, etc.
Sometimes you just need a bit of a lift in life and the company of others is always a good start and teamed up with the enjoyment of learning new skills added to by the healing hands of a professional - wow, what a great feeling.
Every day life can be terribly hard nowadays. What causes it? Who can help?
Nah, let's just blame the individuals' choices. Throw prescription drugs at the problem (they can just store these for later use!). Nothing to do with lack of facilities/funding for things other than helplines. People don't always cause their own situations and most of us can't get out of them by ourselves.
I wish that I could've helped him and others like him.
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Brigadier John,
Perhaps you should read the post again, I call for state care for those with mental health problems.
You seem to class, incorrectly, the mental health paitents who are victims, and the drug and alcahol lowlife who self abuse as one, surely even you can as callous as you can spot the difference ?
I am not in the least surprised that some of the alcaholics you have met are intelligent,
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Brian
Congratulations. It is rare to find a journalist who understands that correlation between factors does not imply causality. If only politicians could learn from you!
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It's a very short step from saying that you shouldn't be able to joke about a particular subject to saying that you shouldn't talk about it either.
If nothing else good comes from this report, it should serve to remind us that trying to pretend that mental illness is not prevalent within parts of society serves only to further marginalise sufferers, driving them inexorably towards the point at which they not only feel helpless but that no help is available.
Any premature death is a wasted life; and, however dubious the merits of this report, if if serves to focus the minds of Ministers and helps to inform the formulation of policy that saves lives in the future, it is of real value. That value will, however, be limited unless it is but a single leg upon which the policy is to stand.
Thomas_Porter (#2 with later addenda): It is a pity that some people seem to have stopped reading as soon as they reached a comment which they found unpalatable. For myself, a snort of derision and a wry smile, then I read on and found myself in wholehearted agreement with the true message of the post.
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I have known many alcohlics in my life but I have never known one to commit suicide. However, an alcoholic will most certainly kill themselves with drink if they cannot control their addiction and maybe this could be classed as a suicide in itself. My father was diagnosed with Korsakovs psychosis at the age of 42 due to excessive drinking from a young age and eventually drank himself to death several years down the line. He knew himself the problem he faced but no matter how much help he got over the years he was incapable of controlling his drink. In contrast to anon1971 my father never committed suicide and he got a lot of help over the years but, as soon as there was an opportunity to drink alcohol he would take it. So unfortunately in my fathers case it really didnt matter how much help he was given he was unable to control his addiction.
Ive heard some experts mention there is no such thing as addiction, but having lived with an alcoholic I refute this. I met alcoholics from all walks of life in the various mental hospitals and rehab units I went to visit my father when I was a teenagerand I truly believe some people in life are just born addicts. No matter how succesful the businessman or how clever the lawyer or scientist, alcoholism will not discriminate. An alcoholic may have everything he needs for a great life - George Best and more recently the tragic figure of Paul Gascoigne for example but they simply cannot control their addictions. With this in mind maybe alcoholism has nothing at all to do with a persons living environment either, but in the end it I have only known it to end tragically.
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I-Like-Avocados
Sorry, didn't mean to imply you couldn't disagree or that the report must be correct. The tone of your "we don't need..." bit implied you thought that Manchester University were "butting in" somehow. If that's not what you meant then I misinterpreted.
I actually agree with Brian and many of the posts that there does not have to be a causal link here.
I get fed up of a lot of this so called "research" that is used to justify policy. One classic is the Conservative "children are brought up better by married couples - so we will pay people to get married" as if that will solve the problem. Does it not occur to these "researchers" to think that people who create a stable home life may be more predisposed to getting married?
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Bangingonabout
Don't necessarily blame the researchers (although there is some crap research published). The biggest problem is often not the actual research, but the way it is lazily reported in the media, and political responses to these media reports.
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I don’t think the report tells us anything that isn’t already known other than to try and put a figure on the size of the problem, There is plenty of evidence linking alcohol and drug misuse with mental health problems and thereby suicide and crime, violent or otherwise. Are the figures worse for Scotland than for other countries? I think comparing figures between countries is unhelpful unless there is something to be learned by it. Is it the fault of one political party or another? I don’t think so; I think it is society’s problem, a problem that belongs to each and every one of us. How do we tackle it? Implement the unthinkable? Provide free drugs and a safe place to take them, break the cycle of drug use and then treat the mental illness through medication and therapies such a Cognitive Behavioural Therapy. Have zero tolerance on the use of drugs out with these clinics, have severe penalties for anyone selling drugs. Apply the same help for those suffering from alcohol dependency. In our primary and secondary schools apply Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, teach our children to think positively, to think realistically. At the most simplistic level start in our own homes, let’s be more positive towards ourselves and our children, teach our children how to be positive towards themselves and others, don’t let them pick up the bad thinking habits that many of us are conditioned to live by and thereby the potential mental health issues. The long term answer isn’t in our politicians’ hands it is in our own hands.
My apologies to all if this sounds like a sermon.
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its a tough,tough world indeed Brian, on the issue of alcohol,why is it that some can drink more than others? why is it?that when we look at native Americans and Australians we find large numbers of alcoholics?is it just the case that some people carry a gene that determines their drinking habits or is there an underlying social problem,it maybe both,but what is fascinating about a debate like this,is,we may draw nearer a better clearer answer.
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Indeed here we go;
Why is it worse in Scotland?
I blame it on the Union!!!
Considering myself a Scot, living in Scotland I watch as my country is overruled by the government of another. Its taxes, natural resources and talents are removed and abused to keep the dominating country in a lucrative state while oppressing mine.
The people of my country have their jobs, indeed entire industries decimated, our own wealth is used to keep us on the dole queue and we are impoverished.
Our rights are removed, to the extent that no longer does a Scottish Citizen even exist.
I even run the risk of being imprisoned for 42 days without charge just for example wearing a kilt or some other trumped up excuse.
Every day I have to listen to the foreign news of another nation telling me how privileged I am to be sharing in this Great Union.
All this goes on while my fellow Scot's tell me that this is a good idea!!!
This is very depressing.
Does anyone have a beer?
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The connection between social context and high rates of suicide linked to alcohol-and-drug dependency is well established. Certain types of society present problems of this nature to a particularly marked degree. One of these types is represented by Scotland and Quebec, two socio-culturally and economically problematic regions which are also in situations of politico-constitutional dependency resisted by significant proportions of their populations.
As stated by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec, a notably discontented society which, like Scotland, aspires to independence, psycho-social or mental health has to do with conditions and events related to the psychological well-being and the full social development of individuals. This health dimension is much less documented and more difficult to depict than that related to physical health issues. It is also more sensitive to the influence of certain cultural and contextual elements of society, which can greatly affect its indicators since these frequently involve subjective information. For Quebec, which is in a number of significant respects comparable to Scotland, there are a few indicators, mainly derived from surveys, which can be used to study, in part, the psycho-social or mental disposition of Quebeckers. Canada-wide and internationally, the principal available and comparable indicator is the suicide mortality rate, which reflects the most extreme consequence of psycho-social or mental distress.
In general, the portrait of the psycho-social or mental-health status of Quebeckers is no more favourable than that of Scots. Since 1996-1997 the proportion of the Quebec population who experienced a major depressive episode seems to be increasing. In addition, there has been no significant decrease in suicide mortality. Suicide mortality among men continues to be 3 to 4 times higher than that among women. In Canadian and international comparisons Quebec also cuts a very poor figure, posting not only the highest suicide mortality rate in Canada but also one of the highest in the industrialized world. It should be noted as well that in 2003, among Canadian provinces, Quebec posted the largest proportion of the population with chronic high stress.
Problem societies have problem citizens. Quebec seems to be aware of the relationship between its alcohol-and-drug dependency problems and the cultural, socio-economic and politico-economic environment in which they exist. In Scotland, on the other hand, this particular dimension of the question being confronted in the current discussion appears to be tabou, by order of unionists who choose not to face inconvenient facts which might undermine their cosy conception of their preferred constitutional arrangement.
Scottish society is sick, just as its economy is sick, just as its polity is sick, just as its constitutional status is a sick joke, just as Scotland (no less than distant Quebec) has outstanding unresolved issues which need to be resolved. This will not happen if inconvenient truths are covered up and ignored. You cannot fix the Scots until you fix their country. It's the economy, stupid, and it's the constitution, which provides the governmental framework within which that can be managed for the health and well-being of our citizens . . . or not, as the case may be.
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Brian,
as a researcher myself, you offer wise words. There is a difference between a causal relationship (extremely difficult to identify) and a correlation. Thus far, without reading the entire report, it seems to strongly identify a positive correlation (the more of one, the more of the other), but surmises about the causal connection.
Another point you make is also good. From a research point of view, two variables that are correlated, may be so because of the so-called third variable effect. This means that both the correlated variables may be directly related to a third, but unseen, variable. This creates the illusion of causality.
Your alternative explanation seems to me too to possess "face validity". In other words, is sensible enough an alternative explanation to merit serious study.
Thus, it is good always to be very careful about such reports lest they compell us down a fruitless route.
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Brigadier John,
Perhaps you should read the post again, I clearly call for state care for mental health victims.
You seem to class, incorrectly, paitents with mental health problems and drug and alcahol dependant self abusing lowlife. Even one as callous as you should be able to spot the difference.
I'm sure, as you state, many of the alcaholics you have met are in intelligent, I for one have never doubted your ability to spot intelligence in an alcahol and drug dependant self abusing parasite, it may be your strongest asset.
Wansanshoo.
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It is something of a revelation that people in Scotland are more likely to commit suicide in Scotland than people elsewhere in the UK. It is more of a revelation to discover, as revealed by Bill Posters, who will, of course, be persecuted by unionists, that people in Quebec are more likely to commit suicide than the inhabitants of any other Canadian province.
Quebec, which also has a government dedicated to radical constitutional change, is so out of step with the rest of Canada in so many ways, just as Scotland is out of step in so many ways in the UK, and is so discontented with its position in the Canadian federation that the question of its membership of it is is permanently a live issue there. What an interesting coincidence.
What studies might one expect there to be or to have been to correlate the two findings?
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I think that will wait until the full report is published.
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Cause and effect?
Wait and read,
Then comment
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I am troubled to see that some people are equating the union to suicide rates.
Even though Thomas made it as a poor and distasteful joke (I wouldn't advise a career in stand up if that was your attempt at humour) some people are giving it weight.
Someone mentioned Quebec.
Consider then, the situation of Lithuania.
Independent and a growing economy and yet the highest suicide rate in the world.
It's clear suicide is an incredibly complicated matter - why Scots and indeed Lithuanians seem to choose this more than some others is not.
In any case, correlation does not equal causation.
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Brian,
If you have not already read it can I recommend Carol Craig's carefully researched and thought through book 'The Scot's Crisis of Confidence'.
A pity some politicians at Holyrood had not read it as they would not have had to spend all the money on research that is telling those who deal with young folk that there is a problem. We know - it is called lack of real opportunity or "There's no point pal, I'm stuck in this dump".
Craig puts the cause for the dependency culture on the way Scotland has been run as a defacto colony by Westminster. A point admitted by the likes of Rifkind, Hamilton and Forsyth when acting as Secretary of State for Scotland. Beveridge noted the problem in his 1944 report and went as far as to conjecture that; "Scots were repeatedly told they had been civilised by the Union and so developed an 'inferiorist' mentality similar to that of colonial peoples."
So for those knocking Tom in earlier posts it would appear distinguished Social Scientists agree with him.
Interestingly Craig also makes the point that with the Scots' increased confidence in parliament at Holyrood, the sense of dependency will decrease, the people will want more autonomous power, blaming England for all our troubles will decline and the English will begin to have problems with their own national identity.
Is this loss of identity in England reflected in the increase in violent deaths and suicide amongst the 16 to 21 age group in London or Manchester against the declining rate of violence and suicides in the same age group in Glasgow?
This begs the question; Is the Union Treaty now part of the problem rather than part of the solution?
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We know - it is called lack of real opportunity or "There's no point pal, I'm stuck in this dump".
Craig puts the cause for the dependency culture on the way Scotland has been run as a defacto colony by Westminster. A point admitted by the likes of Rifkind, Hamilton and Forsyth when acting as Secretary of State for Scotland.
It's them darned socialists again I tells ya! On previous threads I've posted that the problem with (say) Glasgow and other depressed ex-industrial regions throughout the UK is exactly as you say: "There's no point pal, I'm stuck in this dump".
And to an extent they're right. Successive Labour governments have pandered to every demand to keep them there in an unmotivated half-life. Free cash, free house, free healthcare, all your waster mates and their waster parents and grandparents who haven't had a job for 30 years all on your doorstep. All telling you 'What's the point. Be like us. Don't show us up by actually getting off your duff and making something of your life'.
Oh, yeah. And don't be a class traitor. Vote Labour. They look after the working class (sic) like us.
This should have been simplicity itself to fix over the last 10 years. We had two million Poles (or Eastern Europeans) come over here and take the jobs our wasters are too 'good' to do. 'What's the point. I'm just as well off on the dole.'
Not on the dole I'd be giving you you wouldn't. And you'd be sleeping in great big aircraft hangers instead of comfy double-glazed flats that you then proceed to destroy through lack of respect.
Then you'd be glad of a job that the Pole was doing. Because you'd have something more than porridge in your belly. And you'd have some pride that it was actually your own hard work that had got you a decent meal and a home of your own. Instead of slumped in front of 'Trisha' giving it 'I'm entitled to this. I'm entitled to that.'
I've said it before. The kindest thing we could have done to Glasgow was level it while they were all down in Manchester rioting. That would have forced them to leave the place and find a job.
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I fail to see why some comments are using countries quite far away of Scotland as an example.
Scotland is apart of the 'equal' Union with four other countries. (debatable)
We should not have to travel thousands of miles to discover why in certain parts of the world, suicide rates are higher or lower.
Northern Ireland, England and Wales. Our brothers and sisters. (maybe a few sons and daughters to that I don't know about)
We should be discussing the differences and of course improvments that Scotland could do that can combat the 'hidden' problems we face.
Personally, I see sport as a 'cure' because our culture is surrounded by drink and drugs for social events.
If we had the resources to focus on building confidence within individuals and encourage them to take part in sports at a young age, throughout their lives and so they can continue it as adults then perhaps that type of relationship with friends, family etc etc could help create a far more healthy society for everyone.
No one should be left alone, everyone should have friends, and everyone should have some level of confidence and of course will know that hard work will get you out on the field more because your good at what you do or further up in the touraments because you want that award.
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#41: how sad to be making spiteful comments about other posts - and to use vitriolic words such as 'parasite' for alcoholics and drug addicts. I hope that you never find yourself in the position of one of those you appear to despise so.
A friend I knew for 35 years from our school days died last year at the age of 50. He was an alcoholic, and his addiction was the direct cause of his death. He was an intelligent, kind and thoughtful man whose slide into alcoholism was painful to watch. He had many problems, some of his making, some that weren't. He was no parasite.
There are many people whose lives are blighted from an early age by drink and drugs. Some of it is because they are who they are, some it is societal. I entirely agree with other posters who point out that drug and other problems are often associated with 'stuck in this dump' issues.
There are no easy answers to social problems associated with lack of job worth, housing problems, self esteem, mental health issues not addressed by 'Care in the Community', and so on.
I wish I had answers, but instead I find only questions.
As there are many thoughtful points made in this thread I do wish that the name-calling would cease; it just cheapens the discussions on what is one of the most pressing social and societal problems faced by us all.
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Wansanshow #41: Indeed I can spot intelligence a mile off. I can also spot illiteracy, self-loathing class hatred, blinkered egotism, and a bankrupt philosophy. But my mild-mannered, unionist, laissez-faire attitude to the excluded lower orders prohibits me from attaching such labels to anyone.
I normally suggest night school remedial classes.
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post #49 Dear Brigadier, I can spot the pot calling the kettle...........
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Brian:
This report is contains a lot of sobering thoughts...
--Dennis Junior--
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