Advertisement
BBC BLOGS - Blether with Brian

Who ya gonna call?

Brian Taylor | 12:22 UK time, Wednesday, 11 November 2009

Comments (165)

The dole queue has lengthened perceptibly once more.

Unemployment across Scotland rose by 67,000 in the last quarter, compared with the previous year.

And here's the thing. The Glasgow North East constituency area retains its unwanted distinction of having the highest unemployment percentage in Scotland.

There's more. Glasgow NE has the second highest rate of incapacity benefit claims in the UK.

This much we knew. The statistics confirm what the folk in the street have told me repeatedly. They're anxious about joblessness - linked to the attendant crime and disorder.

There are long-term issues to address there. How do we revive the most deprived districts? Does public spending work effectively - or is it partly squandered?

Can jobs be directed to the poorest areas - or does that ultimately fail as the market readjusts?

Can poverty be addressed by reform of the tax system? Or benefits? Or both? How about social enterprise? Might that work better?

'Previous incumbent'

Then, there is a short-term issue - which will undoubtedly exercise the politicians most, at least for now.

Considering the by-election voters, they'll wonder: who ya gonna call? Who will get support in the light of these figures?

For Labour, this ought to be a tough by-election. It is a Westminster contest - and the UK government has not been short of problems of late.

Further, it is an "unnecessary" by-election in that it is caused, not by mortality, but by the elevation of the previous incumbent to the House of Lords.

Folk tend to dislike "unnecessary" by-elections.

Against that, the Labour machine appears to be better organised and better focused than it was during the Glasgow East defeat last year. In that respect, it rather resembles Glenrothes.

So, again, who can convince people they have the answers to today's figures? Is it Labour's Willie Bain who says he will organise a jobs summit, enlisting local employers and others.

'Multiple prejudices'

Mr Bain has fought this by-election like an opposition politician, despite the fact that it is a Westminster contest.

He has targeted what he claims is neglect of Glasgow by what he calls the "Edinburgh" SNP Scottish Government, playing deftly into multiple prejudices at once.

Is is the SNP's David Kerr who says that Labour has run this constituency or its predecessors for 74 years - with no discernible benefit to the citizens?

In particular, he has criticised the record of the Labour local authority.

Is it the Tories' Ruth Davidson who, like Mr Bain, also depicts herself as standing somewhat apart from politics: aware that the profession is in the doghouse.

She argues that this is a British by-election - and that only the Tories can take British power to effect change.

Or is it the LibDems' Eileen Baxendale who says that her experience as a Glasgow social worker equips her to deal with problems of poverty?

She offers tax reform to put more money back in the pockets of the poor.

Or is one of the other candidates standing in this by-election? No forecasts from me.

It is up to the candidates to convince the voters and for the voters to respond.

Gloomy news

Brian Taylor | 13:48 UK time, Tuesday, 10 November 2009

Comments (119)

More gloomy news on jobs and the Scottish economy.

The Lloyds Banking Group, which now includes HBOS, is to shed around 1000 Scottish posts - although redeployment may reduce the number of permanents jobs lost to around half that figure.

It follows retrenchment at the Royal Bank of Scotland - with jobs going and to go.

In Glasgow, the city council is preparing to offer voluntary redundancy to staff aged over 50. With an eye to the Westminster by-election in the city, the move has been condemned by the SNP.

The Labour leadership at the council says it has a policy of no compulsory redundancy which will stay in force at least until the end of the fiscal year in March 2010. The policy is annually reviewed.

The council says further that the likely redundancy trawl (it has yet to be formally endorsed) is part of a wider reform package which is intended to shake up what the council does and how it does it.

In Dumfries and Galloway, the local authority has agreed to consult on a package of savings which could, inevitably, mean job losses.

Collectively, Scotland needs to review ways of reviving our economy. Is it to be done primarily by stimulating private enterprise - with all the risks, the attendant ups and downs?

Cutting costs

Or should we continue to place reliance upon our relatively substantial public sector - currently, and for the foreseeable future, beset by pressure to cut costs?

Does the public sector enhance private enterprise - or squeeze the life out of it?

Can we do things differently in the public sector, perhaps in a way which would work more coherently with private business?

Should there be a greater role for the third sector, for social enterprise? Should corporate social responsibility become an intrinsic element of business growth, rather than an adjunct?

Good questions all, when voiced dispassionately. But perhaps rather difficult to hear in the raucous brouhaha which masquerades as political debate.

You will tell me that it is impossible to mount such an analytical discussion while a by-election is pending. I accept that. It has already, and entirely understandably, frozen negotiations over next year's Holyrood budget.

Post Thursday, you may tell me that it is impossible to discuss consensually because there is a UK General Election in the offing. Then there will be elections to the Scottish Parliament. Then . . .

Trust system

Me, I like the sound of the approach being adopted by David Berry, the SNP leader of East Lothian council.

With an eye to spending cuts to come, he asked council officials to "think out of the box."

One idea which emerged - in Mr Berry's "smorgasbord" - was a trust system which would allow schools more control over budgets.

He is adamant that nothing is fixed, nothing settled. He is equally keen to stimulate a coherent debate, free from preconceptions.

David Berry didn't need the realistically gloomy Audit Scotland report to tell him that his local authority budget is tight and getting tighter.

When I chatted to him, he sounded notably - and encouragingly - uninterested in apportioning blame for that.

His concern was with sorting it. It's a fundamental approach which - the partisan row over the Glasgow Airport rail link apart - has been followed by Glasgow's Steven Purcell and some other leaders.

Scotland needs a comparably iconoclastic approach from the entire public and private sector.

The way it's aye been will not be good enough. Not by a mile.

Anything to declare?

Brian Taylor | 14:20 UK time, Monday, 9 November 2009

Comments (118)

Are they don't knows? Or won't say? Or couldnae care less?

Those who have yet to declare their allegiance in the Glasgow North East by-election could determine the outcome. If they choose.

Out on the stump with the major parties today, most privately reckon Labour is still clearly in the lead, with polling due on Thursday.

The SNP analysis is that they have recorded a swing in their direction in the past day or so - and could magnify that trend before polling.

The key could lie in differential turnout: can the challengers motivate supporters more than the incumbents?

Plus the issue of those who have yet to state a preference to canvassers.

One SNP insider described it to me thus. Those who won't declare: have they genuinely yet to make up their minds - and are thus open to persuasion?

Or are they habitual Labour voters reluctant, for whatever reason, to state this to Nationalist canvassers?

Or will they absent themselves from the polling stations on Thursday?

Explore the BBC

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.