So if you missed yesterday's debate and vote because you had a job to go to, a job to try and find, children to pick up from school, a pint to drink, a cake to make, a hospital or care home or sunbed or art centre or gym to visit ... and if you wonder which one of the commentators who are sharing their take on what was said and done yesterday have got it right, then watch the debate - and the vote -

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In fact any time you have a job to go to, a job to try and find, children to pick up from school, a pint to drink, a cake to make, a hospital or care home or sunbed or art centre or gym to visit, you can catch up with the people responsible for those things and find out what they've done about them - here.

And for all the talk of hands of history and winning the hearts and minds of the people, the First Minister has found that life goes on.

He's won the referendum trigger vote and lost his Assembly pass.

Hand of history? Pah. Hand me my pass.

The absentees were Carl Sargeant, Irene James, Lynne Neagle, Karen Sinclair and Mick Bates. Neither the Presiding Officer nor his Deputy voted of course.
Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas AM had guessed which way it would go and had his press release at the ready.

"This is an historic day in the journey that is devolution in Wales. It will now be up to the people of Wales, provided the Secretary of State for Wales agrees, to decide whether we move to the next phase of devolution."

The Secretary of State, Peter Hain ... just one minute behind the Presiding Officer and avoiding hyperbole.

"Carwyn and I have been working very closely together over the past two months to make progress on this issue. I fully support the First Minister's approach and now look forward to receiving his letter so I can begin the necessary preparatory work to take this forward. In the meantime, as Carwyn and I have said jointly, we both agree that the priority in the coming months will be the General Election, the outcome which will be so important for Wales. We must secure economic recovery for Wales, not choke it off with hasty cuts to Government spending.‬"

UPDATE

More responses.

From Conservative Cheryl Gillan: "If the request for a referendum is on my desk should I become Secretary of State for Wales, I will not stand in its way.

"Conservatives have said that we will let the people of Wales decide, but my real priority remains the economy, inward investment and getting Wales working."

From Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams: "We cannot underestimate the importance of what we have done today. This is the next step of devolution and we are ready to move on, across the political divide, together. While the General Election and issues such as the economy, our health service and schools must take precedence over procedural issues, this doesn't mean that the yes campaign cannot start getting organised so that we can be quick out of the blocks when the referendum is called".

And from Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones: "The unanimous cross party support for this referendum is a clear signal of the breadth of support for a referendum and strengthens the case for it substantially.

"We know that most people in Wales now believe that the Assembly is where most decisions that affect their daily lives should be taken. Most people in Wales also believe that it is right that the Assembly should have more tools to do the job more effectively. If it's alright for the Northern Ireland Assembly to have powers to make laws without having to get the consent of Westminster, then surely it's alright for us in Wales. After all, what could be more natural than allowing the Assembly to pass laws about Wales, here in Wales?"

And from John Bufton, UKIP MEP:

"With all the parties in Cardiff Bay voting together to give themselves more power UKIP are the only political party who believe more governance does not mean more democracy.

"On such an important issue it is vital the media stay impartial and present both sides of the argument fairly. The people should have Referendum because they deserve to have the choice. We don't need propaganda we need the facts, and that includes being told the real cost of devolution.

"More seats in the Assembly and additional powers just means we have even more laws affecting our everyday lives. No matter what the Yes campaign say, people must ask themselves will you really see the benefit of Politicians voting themselves more powers?"

A reaction.

If you're an athlete you work at it and work at it until "the interval time between the presentation of a stimulus and the initiation of the muscular response to that stimulus" is as short as possible. In other words the trigger's pulled and you go for it.

One stimulus. One option. One goal.

If AMs pull the trigger on a referendum in the chamber this afternoon - and they will - what do you get?

If you're Peter Hain then within 14 days you get a letter telling you, as Welsh Secretary, of the Assembly's wishes. He then has four months - 120 days - to work away at a draft order for a referendum, the one with the details about questions and dates, to be voted on by both Houses of Parliament.

What if you're not Peter Hain?

You get to see a visible sigh of relief amongst the four parties, an even greater sigh of relief amongst those who want to see a Yes vote in a referendum that the vote was an united one. And do you get to hear the sound of silence that comes with an agreement that with the trigger pulled, it's time to shut up on this issue until after the General Election?

Labour's Alun Davies AM brings a plea to move forward the debate about giving the Assembly the power to make laws without the need for Westminster say-so to an end like this: "That's it for now. That's my last word on this for about 88 days. After all, there's a General Election to fight". He would add, of course, "And to win".

So what happens to that debate during those 88 or so days? Who moves it forward?

When Sir Emyr Jones Parry and the All Wales Convention were testing attitudes to the current settlement and assessing the degree of support for a referendum he sent a letter to the four main political parties asking them for idea around law-making. What, he asked, could you achieve after a Yes vote in a referendum that you can't achieve now?

The response to that particular stimulus?

Zero. Nothing. No-one responded.

So once again, what happens to that debate now?

Who moves it forward?

When the trigger's pulled, who reacts?

Mr Bates claims he remembers nothing at all about the food, or indeed anything else:

"As a result of my fall I have no recollection of events thereafter, until I came round in the accident and emergency department of Cardiff's Heath Hospital, when recovering. I am extremely grateful to the paramedics and hospital staff who gave their care and attention, I do not underestimate the fantastic work these professionals do on a daily basis and value the care I was given. I repeat my unreserved apology for any concern or difficulty I may have caused that night."

There are rumours in the Bay that he's been told to stay away tomorrow. Go to your constituency ... and stay there. Not so say the Lib Dems, though he may choose to busy himself with work in Montgomeryshire.

By the way while the centre of Cardiff might be hitting the headlines today, it's Cardiff North that will be on the Ten o'clock news. The BBC's Political Editor Nick Robinson spent some of his weekend taking the pulse around the "in places leafy" bits of the city, in a seat where Tory Jonathan Evans is hoping to oust Labour's Julie Morgan at the General Election.

You can read Nick's impressions here.

There's a quotation from his hero, Bob Dylan: "...All I can do is be me. Whoever that is..."

His colleagues across the board and political divide would probably tell you that is a gentle giant, a man who comes from a different sort of background to many who've made it into the Assembly chamber - a former teacher and farmer - a man with strongly-held beliefs about sustainablility who's cultivated deep roots in Mid Wales.

The paramedic who went to give him assistance after a drunken night out in Cardiff in January says he found an aggressive, physically violent man who punched him in the chest, swore at the ambulance crew and had to be baby-sat by hospital security. He told this morning's Radio Wales that the crew plan to press charges against Mr Bates.

Party leader Kirsty Williams has already said that "abuse towards NHS staff is not acceptable". Mr Bates will know this. He sat on the Audit Committee a few years ago when it looked into better protecting NHS staff from violence and aggression.

Now the party boss learns the paramedic at the scene says the abuse came courtesy of a fist, not just a bit of lip.

Mick Bates has already said he's planning to stand down at the Assembly election in 2011. The question now must be whether he makes it that far, or whether - at a time when politicians are trusted and respected so little - there are just too many questions and dare I say it hypocrisy blowin' in the wind this morning.

Problem for the Liberal Democrats is that the last thing they must want now is a by-election in Montgomeryshire, a seat where Lib Dem Lembit Opik MP will fight on his hands come the General Election. So much for party morale on the ground.

What does the boss go then? Down the line of taking away the whip from Mr Bates, taking away his committee chairmanship and hoping the whole thing goes away?

UPDATE:

The Liberal Democrats have released this statement:

"Following a conversation between Kirsty Williams and Mick Bates they have agreed that he will be relieved of his front bench duties and his Chair of the Sustainability Committee whilst this matter is being investigated. We have informed the University Health Board and Ambulance Service that both Mick and the Party will fully co-operate with any investigations''

In Nick Clegg's words 'one principle, one value, one hope, one aspiration' and in my words, one f-word: fairness.

This is how it goes: Labour have failed to deliver fairness over thirteen years in government, the Conservatives would never deliver it, Plaid can't deliver it.

Who will? The Liberal Democrats. On taxation, on public spending, the Liberal Democrats.

Kirsty Williams picked up the baton in her speech (Why does she pronounce part-eih and Swans-eih like that by the way? 'It's what angry Llanelli sound like, suggests a colleague.)

"The Tories never shared those values .They never got it. And Labour have long since left them behind". Plaid? They were squeezed into one angry section, dismissed as being "long on nationalist thinking, short on rationalist thinking" - dreamers-up of huge hikes in pensions that prove to the Liberal Democrats that Plaid could not deliver fairness either.

Was it me or did this speech from the Welsh party leader not position the party just that bit further to the left than past speeches? Having avoided the bear trap of abstaining in the referendum trigger vote on Tuesday, avoided being seen to stand with the Tories - a good thing in her party's view - perhaps the new-ish leader felt able to put her own stamp on things and know that she will take her party with her. She's got to do something. The Lib Dems scored well in 2005, very well. Iraq is back on the agenda but the Welsh leader must know she has a fight on her hands to secure the four seats she's inherited, let alone add to them.

The party could have done with her at last night's fringe event - a four party + True Wales debate on the future for Wales. Alun Davies AM, David Melding AM, Dai Lloyd AM and Mike German AM and Len Gibbs of True Wales addressing the Lib Dem faithful. "That's the problem with Welsh politics" said one of those faithful, "not enough middle aged men involved in it".

If anyone needed reminding that a yes vote on Tuesday doesn't mean a yes vote in a referendum, a snapshot of last night's line-up - eloquent as they were - should do the trick.

You'll recall the cause of the standoff - opposition parties demanding an assurance that the referendum day would not coincide with the Assembly elections on May 5, 2011, the government steadfastly refusing to give it.

But with both opposition parties fully in favour of the referendum, staring down the barrel of being labelled devolution-wreckers, and the new administration of Carwyn Jones fearing the shattering blow of calling the vote and losing it....the situation resembled the climactic scene of Reservoir Dogs, with everyone pointing a gun at everyone else.

Calm heads have prevailed tonight. The First Minister has acknowledged the difficulties in having a referendum on the same day as the Assembly elections, and the strength of feeling on all sides of the chamber. He'll move to accommodate these, and pledge to move forward on an all party basis.

Words are being chosen carefully, but they're enough. Notice that May 5 2011 isn't categorically ruled out, but at the same time, both opposition parties will feel their point has been amply made.

The Conservatives have issued a statement welcoming it, here in Swansea, the Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams will be breathing a private sigh of relief and a wearing a small smile of satisfaction, I suspect.

Peace in our time.

Just for a second I thought that hours before their Spring conference in Swansea she'd divulged a huge Liberal Democrat secret - details of an unusual secret weapon that will hand victory to the Lib Dems at the General Election.

"We have" she told Radio Cymru a moment ago, "a fab beer." Apparently it's one that the voters will love, that the voters will trust and that will cause them to plump for the Lib Dems when it comes to the vote.

"Mae gynnon ni gwrw ffab" is what I heard.
"Mae gynnon ni guru ffab" is what she actually said.

You got it. She was talking about Vince Cable.

Things to look out for:

Disdain for Labour's love-bombing (Peter Black AM has had enough of it, or should that be can't get enough of it?)
Use of the word "fair"
Tight lips. Liberal Democrats have been told to keep stumm about plans for next Tuesday's vote on the referendum.

Which vote on which referendum? Your confusion is not without reason. Read this extract from Conservative Iain Dale's Diary the other day:

"I hear Labour whips are very worried about losing Tuesday's vote on changing the voting system to the Alternative Vote system. With a majority of more than 60, they ought to win the vote comfortably, but doubts are being expressed about how a significant number of Labour MPs will vote. Very few are AV enthusiasts and there are plenty who reject any hint of any kind of electoral reform. Others, especially those who are standing down, may well just decide not to bother turning up.

In addition, the LibDems have published their own amendment to the motion. They hate AV. They don't regard it as in any way proportional. It is therefore likely they will abstain, but if their amendment is treated with contempt, they could join the Tories in the no lobby. The Tories are on a three line whip, with dire warnings being issued to those who think they might have an evening off".

Ring any bells? Substitute 'AV ' for devolution, substitute 'evening off' for 'day off' (child friendly hours in the Bay remember) and there you have a dilemma-laden Tuesday for the Lib Dems.

How do you explain to the voters why you've abstained, or voted no in two votes on two issues that you as a party support wholeheartedly - a change to the voting system and beefing up the powers of the Welsh Assembly? How long do you get with voters to explain the reasons why you wanted to amend both motions, even if your reasons in both cases are perfectly legitimate?

The danger for the Welsh Lib Dems is obvious. They failed to go into coalition with Labour. Why? Because not enough of those with a vote on the night thought the deal on offer was good enough. The vote was tied. Lib Dem rules led to a triple-lock system and a good-bye wave to a term in coalition government. By the time supporters of the deal had picked the lock, it was too late. The Lib Dems no longer looked like a safe partnership bet.

How did it look from outside that room in Llandrindod Wells? It looked as though the Lib Dems had choked. When they got a chance to put policies into action, they choked.

Hence the dilemma for Kirsty Williams.

If the Lib Dem group don't get a reassurance from Labour and Plaid that the referendum will not be on the day of next year's Assembly election, they have two choices: they can stick with the Conservatives, abstain and stand accusedm again, of choking and blocking the one option they do support - an Autumn referendum.

Or they can be seen not to do stand in the way of a referendum for now, vote yes on Tuesday and fight their battles on date later in the process. Labour and Plaid praise their maturity, while sniggering into their sleeves that they knew the LIb Dems hadn't the stomach to abstain. Meanwhile the Conservatives and Nick Bourne who are adamant that the Lib Dems are with them on this all the way will call them flaky.

There is another option of course. It's possible that Kirsty Williams might just rein in her more strident side, manage to talk tough but fair and persuade the coalition government, that's getting every-so-slightly more nervous that she just might mean it, to give enough ground to deliver a united front from all four parties on Tuesday.

If there are dark corners in the the Grand Theatre in Swansea, I'm guessing that's the advice the party's leading lady just might be getting.

Now Plaid have confirmed a story that's been around for a few days that the President of the Conservative Association in Aberconwy - a seat that must be a straight fight between the Tories and Plaid - has decided to up sticks and join them. Why? Not because of a new-found zeal for further devolution and eventually, independence but because he knows the Plaid candidate well and "I realised that I could never vote for, or support, another candidate".

Cue the Conservatives who've got in first to condemn and question his motives. "Since Christmas Cllr. Tew has resigned from numerous positions including being Santa Claus for Conwy Town Council. He will be judged by the people of Deganwy who voted for a Conservative but are now lumbered with an alleged 'socialist and nationalist' at the next council election".

Conservative candidate Guto Bebb is of course right to point out that the people of Conwy are now "lumbered" with a politician who represents a party they had no idea he had any sympathy at all with when they elected him. A fair point from a candidate who has every chance of taking the seat and could do with unity in his local party in the run-up to polling day. And by the same token he'd probably accept that the people of South East Wales are "lumbered" with an Assembly Member who was elected because they voted for a party he ... doesn't represent.

Funny business, politics.

And talking about two way traffic, take a look at the interview our colleague in Westminster, Bethan James, recorded with out-going Islwyn MP Don Touhig yesterday, the first since he announced he's off. Listen closely to his response when he's asked whether he'd consider swapping Wesminster for Cardiff Bay.

I think we'll take it the answer is ... no.

There were mutterings in the corridors of Cardiff Bay at the time of the possibly destabilising effect on the new First Minister in having such an able political operator as Mr Davies on the backbenches, with an awful lot of time on his hands.

In the event and despite his role as Edwina Hart's main backer Mr Davies has remained rock solid loyal, both in public and private since the end of the leadership contest. And his reward? Along with his former Cabinet colleague Dr Brian Gibbons, he's been handed a plum posting: member of the Finance Committee.

Judging by today's performance in taking evidence on further and higher education funding, the former big beasts of the Cabinet are thoroughly enjoying their new berth as interrogators ... rather than the interrogated.

In recent years close observers of Assembly committees (let's just describe them as a small but hardy bunch) have frequently been driven to despair by AMs reading out questions prepared in advance by the Members Research Service in a dull monotone, with minimal attempts at follow up scrutiny. Reports of some performances have been pretty cruel it has to be said. "Why don't they just add 'it says here' to the end of their question and have done with it?"

There were times when today's committee resembled Division One football side which had just signed a couple of Premier League footballers on loan. Both Mr Davies and Dr Gibbons have spent the last ten years or so taking on and grilling the Sir Humphreys of the Welsh civil service. After all, if Ministers are sold a pup by the civil servants, they know its they who have to stand up in the Assembly and take the flak, which tends to concentrate the mind rather.

Mr Davies spent most of the morning picking forensically through the written evidence given to the committee in advance, and demanding a definition of what the witnesses meant by "efficiency savings" in the education sector.

He was clearly fairly exasperated with the answers.

"What I would say about the evidence, Chair, is that assertions are made, and when you ask for the evidence, it's anecdotal? It's very difficult for us as a committee, then, to actually interrogate that."

The rising inflection on the word "anecdotal" left the room in no doubt on what he thought of it. He went on to lecture the witnesses, from the Association for College Management and the University and College Union, among others about the focus on difference in funding levels between Wales and England, without a similar focus on the disparities in performance.

He cited one further education institution offered substantial extra money towards collaboration, but which turned it down because it was a repayable loan, not a grant.

Was this the AM for Swansea West speaking, or a rather frustrated former Minister for Public Service Delivery? It was certainly someone who knows where the bodies are buried.

At the same time, of course, there's more than an element of pride here too - there's a record in Government to defend, remember.

But if having former Ministers free to make the points they perhaps wished they could make while in office is proving painful for witnesses used to a somewhat gentler experience, it's also a headache for the committee chair too.

Last year the finance committee chair Angela Burns AM found herself presiding over a committee that sometimes began to resemble a circus, one particular lowlight being a public row between members as to whether one had plagiarised a document written by another and then submitted it as formal evidence.

The new line up appears to have cured some of those problems but there were signs today that Ms Burns is going to have her hands full in keeping some of the new members reined in. "Through the chair" she snapped at one point, as Mr Davies went after another witness during another AM's questioning. He had the good grace to smile and acknowledge this ... but it would be advisable for future witnesses to make sure they've got some pretty clear answers ready in the coming weeks.

Oh and by the way spare a thought for the new chair of the European and External Affairs Committee. Rhodri Morgan AM will this afternoon introduce and outline the recommendations of his committee's report on Cohesion Policy. The government's response to the report and its recommendations was signed by ... Rhodri Morgan AM, when First Minister, with responsibility for European and External Affairs.

I was going to put it up now but before I pressed the button to publish, I noticed a comment made by BBC News website reader about the effect dementia has had on her and her family.

There are lots of personal experiences shared that point to huge differences in the standards of care for patients suffering from Alzheimer's but the comment that stopped me in my tracks was this one:

"My mother died from Alzheimer's" wrote Jullee Morgan from Llangammarch Wells in Powys. "Kind people pushed drugs at her for about two years before her death".

Kind people pushed drugs at her for about two years before her death.

I will blog about the Finance Committee because while it's easy for some of you to dismiss it as Cardiff Bay navel gazing that says nothing, I don't think that's true.

It's just that Jullee Morgan's experience, in that moment, said a whole lot more.

Absolutely no way, says Carwyn Jones.

Absolutely no way, says Ieuan Wyn Jones. We're not about to rule anything in our out. How unwise would that be?

Apparently Plaid Cymru's parliamentary leader, Elfyn Llwyd wasn't in that particular loop. He's just told a group of journalists in Westminster that a May 2011 referendum has been "ruled out, all but" and the vote will be held in October or March next year.

A vote on election day would be "pretty bloody confusing ... It will be October or March."

One Wales, two voices?

UPDATE

What exactly did Mr Llwyd say? Was he, as Plaid are suggesting, simply laying out the Conservative position as he understood it.

Here are the quotations care of one who was there. Make up your own minds.

"I don't think it is going to be in May, it is either going to be in October or March.
At the present time my suspicion is October."

Mr Llwyd said Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones had held a press conference in Cardiff at which they were not talking dates.

"The Conservatives in the National Assembly are adamant that they don't want it on the same day as the election in May.

"And frankly, there is some sense in that because while parties might be rowing the same boat on the referendum they are also at each others' throats getting seats so it's going to be pretty bloody confusing."

"I don't think anyone wants to be hemmed in by the Tories and giving in to their demands but their demand is that they would be happy to vote for the trigger provided it was explicitly ruled out that there would be something in May.

"In reality it is ruled out, all but, although no guarantees can be given. It is simply not tenable" {to hold a referendum on election day}

This blog has had a stab already at laying out the likelihood of the vote being won in the Assembly next week and the process that would lead to that referendum. I won't make you suffer again so here's the potted version:

Am I convinced a referendum will be held in the Autumn? No, open to convincing but not convinced.

Could it happen? Absolutely.

What makes the difference between 'no' and 'absolutely'? Political will. The party in power in Westminster must have lots of it if there's to be an Autumn referendum within months of a General Election.

If the Conservatives win, then Welsh Labour might well find pots of political will but then they'd find they no longer have a Secretary of State.

The Conservatives will but David Cameron hasn't said clearly that he intends to make a referendum in Wales happen as early as the Autumn. What he has said is that the timing isn't up to him. Nick Bourne is adamant that he wants a referendum in the Autumn but ask some of his trusted advisers whether they think a vote would be held in September/October if David Cameron makes it to Number Ten and they're just not sure things would move that quickly. They are hoping, just not sure.

If Labour win, Peter Hain has said clearly he thinks an Autumn referendum would be lost. Would he be cajoled by Carwyn Jones into holding it anyway? Now there's an obvious question for this morning's lobby briefing - one that offers the First Minister a chance to spell out the extent of his political will on this one.

A hung parliament? Ah well, then you'd have to look at the maths and look at who had the clout, along with the political will ... and the possiblity of a second General Election making the timing of a referendum even harder to predict.

What happens today? Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones sit side by side to announce that the vote held in the Assembly on February 9th will be a trigger vote - in other words, it sets us off towards the finishing line of a referendum.

Will the government win the vote next week?

The Conservatives say they won't vote yes unless the possiblity of a referendum that coincides with the date of the Assembly election next year is ruled out. Neither Labour nor Plaid are minded to give them that assurance.

The Lib Dems are saying the same, yet briefing that they'll vote yes next week. Not exactly what you'd call political hardball.

Will the vote be won then? Yes, it looks very much like it.

UPDATE:

The Liberal Democrats insist they did NOT brief that they will vote to support the trigger motion next week unless they get a reassurance that a referendum would not be held on the same day as the Assembly election. Reports that they did, they say, are wrong.

The party line? The group will abstain unless Labour and Plaid "do their best to rule out ... no, do rule out" a referendum that coincides with the Assembly election.

There'll be some bartering, no doubt and possibly some overtures to Trish Law - Blaenau Gwent's AM who is all for a referendum but against having it on the same day as the Assembly election.

But bottom line? Next week's vote will be won. The problem the Lib Dems face is that no-one - except some Conservatives perhaps - believes they would vote against a referendum they really want.

By the way it's the Lib Dems who made another point more clearly than anyone else: the vote next week might be won, said Peter Black but without a full slate of parties backing it, don't the chances of winning a referendum diminish?