The Monday list
So as the dust settles on the voting - if not yet the result - perhaps it's time to provide us all with a handy checklist of the kind of issues that got rather drowned out during the campaign but are going to be significant here in Wales over the coming weeks and months.
No I don't mean cleaning the house and reminding the children they have a mother too: I mean the other significant isues. Thanks to the marathon broadcasts and the no-you-can't-switch-off-yet nature of this election they're in what I'll call a "stream of consciousness" style, starting with the biggest issue without a shadow of a doubt, which is...
1. PUBLIC SPENDING AND THE WELSH BLOCK GRANT
It's number 1A on the agenda for whichever administration takes power. It's top of the list because the implications for Wales are pretty massive.
Remember we're already seeing reduction in some areas of the block grant this year compared to last year. The colour and make-up of the new government will determine whether it falls further this year, or we start to feel the real pain in the next financial year.
The Liberal Democrats made a new deal stimulus package for green jobs one of the centrepieces of their manifesto, which would have delivered an extra £125m to the Welsh budget. However there wasn't much in the way of detail as to how that would be paid for and the Conservatives made in-year spending cuts an even more high profile part of their prospectus for Government.
The shadow chancellor George Osborne made Wales a sort of afterthought offer he thought it couldn't refuse - to delay the impact of any spending cuts this year until next. We'd asked why the offer had been made in Scotland in recognition of the fact the government there had already agreed its budget but not in Wales ... and were told pretty sharpish that Wales could have the same offer too. It's fair to say it received a pretty lukewarm response behind the scenes from the Assembly Government, who doubted whether an offer made via briefing to journalists would ever amount to a cast-iron offer, and who fear the hammer blow of having to make up this year's cuts on top of the deep cuts which will come from 2011-12 onwards. A Labour-led administration would start the cuts next year, but whoever's in charge, there's also the key question of what proportion of any spending reductions in Whitehall will be passed on to Wales. Much of this will depend on the negotiating skills at the Cabinet table of the...
2. NEW SECRETARY OF STATE:
A few variables here: with the Tories (at least at this point on Monday morning) seemingly in pole position to form a government, the obvious candidate is the Shadow Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillan. She's already held preliminary talks with First Minister Carwyn Jones but it's by no means a done deal that she'll occupy Gwydyr House if the Tories take office. A - let's choose my words carefully here - less than stellar election campaign won't have helped her cause. (Yes, the same could be said of Plaid's Elfyn Llwyd and the Liberal Democrats' Roger Williams but they're not up for a job; Peter Hain's "savage cuts" mantra wins that particular contest, given it seemed to be be brutally effective on the doorstep in many areas).
So it's possible that Jonathan Evans, who scraped home in Cardiff North, could be in line for the Welsh Cabinet seat, although Mr Cameron might choose to deploy his talents as a junior minister in the Home or Justice portfolios. Whoever is the new occupant of the Wales Office (or as David Jones MP would have it again, the Welsh Office) the relationship with the Assembly Government will be absolutely key, not least in terms of the...
3. REFERENDUM ON FURTHER POWERS
See what I mean about stream of consciousness?
A team has been beavering away in the Wales Office since the First Minister's letter was received following the Assembly's "trigger" vote in February. No one outside those four walls knows how far they've got and the 120 days for the Order to be drawn up and laid before parliament expires in mid June.
There's a growing feeling that the political uncertainty in Westminster caused by the hung parliament has effectively done for the Autumn referendum option (if it hadn't been done for before, that is). Very few people want another general election in the autumn, but the new electoral maths means it has to be a possibility, which would make calling a referendum on further powers in the middle if it highly risky. Plus there's the question of parliamentary time to get the Order through before the Summer recess, which shouldn't be underestimated. And a new Secretary of State, should there be one, may well want to take their time in terms of getting the wording of the question and at the administrative arrangements for the poll right.
Whatever happens, the clamour from Wales for a referendum on further powers is only likely to increase, particularly in the wake of the debacle over the...
4. HOUSING LCO
Which remains, as it has spent most of its unhappy existence, in legislative limbo. There is approaching zero chance that a new Tory administration would be prepared to let it through having effectively blocked it in the dying days of the last Parliament. Would it be a priority for a incoming government of a different hue? And will the presence of a current and another former AM on the back benches have any impact on the smoother passage of LCOs? Such as Glyn Davies and ...
5. ALUN CAIRNS
Now one of a very rare breed: a dual mandate politician. Double jobbing, as it became known rather pejoratively during the expenses scandal, came in for some scathing criticism from Sir Christopher Kelly, the man charged with looking into the whole affair and making recommendations to sort it out. In an interview following his election in the early hours of Friday, Mr Cairns said categorically that he would be tendering his resignation as an Assembly Member to the party's management board immediately and it would be for them to decide what happened next.
If the second on the list were a man the party was ready to welcome with open arms, there would be no problem. I think it's fair to say that he is not.
Watch this space.
UPDATE
More what-if thoughts on the role of a Welsh/Scottish Secretary should there be a Tory/Lib Dem deal here.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~34~RS~)
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Hopefully Betsan there will be a new sense of realism and urgency down at the Bay. (I'm not holding my breath)
When you consider that the expected funding deficit of some 300 Million is dwarfed by the administrative cost of 350 million just running the Assembly.
A figure which excludes the devolved services and relevant ministries which have their own Administrative organisation and Civil Servant staff.
Its time for Carwyn to take stock.
Also instead of focusing on how they can add more burdens on Welsh Business, and finding ways to spend money on nonsense, together with loading ever more intrusive constraints on the rest of us.
Perhaps our AM's and WAG could address rebuilding Wales and a properly balanced Welsh economy.
You mentioned the Referendum - bring it on - it is becoming ever more apparent that WAG and the Assembly have not delivered, are unable to deliver, and are squandering resources needed elsewhere in Wales.
Its time for Wales to have its say - not just on more powers - but whether we want the Assembly at all.
Over on "Wales Home" Dr Bristow has a post worth reading When the party’s over – adjusting to the public spending squeeze in Wales
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Point 5. Do expand on that :-)
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Well Wikipedia tells me that second on the list in South Wales West was Chris Smart and Google tells me that he is chairman of the Bridgend Conservative Association. Why wouldn't he be welcomed by the Tories in Cardiff Bay?
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I trawled through the 2007 regional lists. Now that I have a name, I can't find anything out about Mr Chris Smart, other than that he's a Bridgend Councillor. Sometimes even Google comes up short!
Please elucidate on this matter.
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You mentioned the additional £125m green jobs package in the LibDem manifesto, Betsan.
I looked at that promise in some detail in this post on Syniadau when they made it and came to these conclusions:
1. It was part of a £3.1bn package for the UK as a whole. 5% of £3.1bn is £155m ... leaving us short-changed by £30m. So they were in fact proposing that Wales would get a much smaller share of the package than we are entitled to. Ironic, seeing that Wales has the best potential for green jobs of any country in the UK.
2. As for where the money was to come from, they said:
"The plans target £3.1bn of public spending that can be stopped and the money used to create jobs and protect the environment"
In other words this was not new money, but money that would be diverted from other public spending budgets. That's fair enough, of course. But to the extent that the cut public spending is on matters devolved to the Assembly and paid for out of the block grant, the block grant would be cut.
So this green jobs package would leave Wales worse off on two counts. I'm all in favour of green jobs, but not with this sort of package.
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As for a new SoSW, I'd agree that Jonathan Evans would be a better choice than Cheryl Gillan, but not for any reasons to do with her competence ... simply because it would be a disaster for the Tories to have a SoSW who does not represent a Welsh constituency. Daughter of Redwood.
I wasn't expecting Glyn Davies to be elected, and I don't think has the right experience for the job. But I do think he might be a good choice as Under Secretary – the job Wayne David now does. If Jonathan Evans is the man in the suit, Glyn Davies could be the populist who can try and put a "we share your pain" face on the cuts that are coming. Other choices are more likely to be seen as the "we inflict your pain" face of Conservatism.
This on the assumption that the Tories get to form or be part of a Westminster government, which is by no means certain.
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On the subject of the Referendum Order, the current uncertainty doesn't help, but one thing should be noted. If the Order is laid and passed within the 120 day deadline, it should be possible to get a 28 October 2010 date for the poll. However that date can later be varied by the SoSW with the consent of the ministers in the Welsh Government. That means there is no reason to put off making a decision now because of any uncertainty about whether a new Westminster election might be needed in the Autumn. If a new election does take place then, our referendum can be put back to Spring 2011, with the Assembly elections put back to June 2011 to leave an interval between them.
MH @ Syniadau
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Chris Smart was declared bankrupt on June 6 2008, search WalesOnline, I didn't think a bankrupt could hold public office, Assembly or Westminster that is.
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Wps. In the last para of #5 I should have said,
If the Order is laid within the 120 day deadline and passed promptly it should ...
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Thanks Stonemason. I've found the article you mention. It explains that since 2004 people declared bankrupt don't have to resign if they already hold office. But that doesn't make it clear whether he would remain eligible for becoming an AM as a list member. Or does that honour pass to Gerald Rowbottom?
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#6 #8
Thank you both. Yes, interesting. Can one be said to be "elected" if one appears on the regional list, but only gets into the Assembly *after* becoming bankrupt due to a resignation 3 years later?
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I think in this case it would not be elected until the resignation occurs so it would switch to the next on the list, if the party's nominating officer approves.
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'More what-if thoughts on the role of a Welsh/Scottish Secretary should there be a Tory/Lib Dem deal..'
What-if... indeed!
The Tories' best offer to the LibDems... in William Hague's words... 'We will offer a referendum on AV, so that the British people can decide which is the best voting method'
AV has no element of proportionality, and an election under it could end up with an even more skewed undemocratic outcome than under FPTP.
The two turkey parties have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the twenty-first century and into giving the people of the UK the democratic power to elect a legislature which truly reflects the will of the electorate.
Its now up to Labour to up the ante.. if they fail we will see them for what they are - self-serving politicians who only care for absolute power and privilege with little accountability.
What I've always feared would happen if this situation arose, is that Labour and Tories will both back off a deal with the LibDems at the cost of PR.. as that would end their corrupt monopoly on power once and for all. In a Commons vote on electoral reform on anything beyond AV, Tory and many Labour MPs will vote it down. That, I think is the most likely outcome, and the UK will continue to fall far short of being a true democratic state.
The entire system stinks.
Wales and Scotland, for this and many other reasons, would be far better out of it.
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11. Bryn_Teilo
Agreed, but I am enjoying Cleggie's leading the pair of them a dance....and, who knows, the UK (or rump thereof) may actually get electoral reform...
Game on.
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To become an MP ...
A person may not sit in the Commons if he or she is the subject of a Bankruptcy Restrictions Order (applicable in England and Wales only), or if he or she is adjudged bankrupt (in Northern Ireland), or if his or her estate is sequestered (in Scotland).
The Government of Wales Act states ...
Subject to section 13(1) and (2), a person is also disqualified from being an Assembly member if he is disqualified otherwise than under the [1975 c. 24.] House of Commons Disqualification Act 1975 (either generally or in relation to a particular constituency) from being a member of the House of Commons or from sitting and voting in it.
So the same rule applies at Cardiff Bay.
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Thanks for doing the leg work on that one Stonemason. Most interesting.
So the choice is a referendum on AV from the Tories and something from Labour which may be AV+ or possibly STV. For me I think that repairing the broken political system is essential, and yes the economy is vital, but it will never get the long term attention it needs while we have a broken electoral system that is not fit for purpose in a modern multi party system. The problem is that the conservatives still think the won the election and haven't yet realised that no one won and so that a coalition is needed that isn't just a capitulation to one party but a genuine coalition of ideas.
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11. Bryn_Teilo
"The entire system stinks"
I can't help but totally agree unfortunately Bryn! The pessimist in me can't help but think this episode will be seen by history as an extremely dramatic, but extrememly sordid low point in the UK political system. Just get a bad vibe about the whole lack-of-info, deal-making thang'...
On a side topic - did anybody see ITN's Tom Bradby at all today (as per message #1 by Bruce_ma_goose in Nick Robinson's blog:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/05/browns_audaciou.html )
The bloke looked apoplectic! (didn't know who he was until I googled him!)
Hurrah for Beeb impartiality ! :-D
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...then what on earth are the Tories doing keeping him in place on their list?!!!
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Chris Smart used to do the Sunday phone-in on Swansea Sound - I phoned in a few times and quite liked him. He's a serious right winger with a historical incident to his name that could be used against him by his opponents. However, if he is next on the list, then the Tories should abide by their rules. Having said that, they ducked the agreed rules when Oscar employed his daughter.
There is this talk of the Lib Dem green policy, but it would only be for one year and they would have no right to tell WAG how to spend the money anyway. This is a classic case of why the recent election campaign was so pointless for Wales, as many of the policies trailed by the UK parties were not relevant to Wales.
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