Great Expectations
Expectations. My theory? Never a mistake to dampen them down.
Years ago my brother had a friend who went home from college over Christmas and hinted to her parents that she was pregnant and had spent her entire grant already. Grant? As I said, it was many years ago.
They turned very pale until she told them that actally, she wasn't pregnant, nor was she broke but she had failed her first term exams. She found her parents weren't terribly concerned.
The other day I bumped into a Welsh Lib Dem who was pretty confident that the coalition deal, published today, would have some sweeteners for Wales - and for Welsh Lib Dems - in it. Holtham was mentioned. Not sure what would be in there but it was all looking pretty promising.
So what is in there they can point to and wave at Plaid and Labour?
Not an awful lot. Clearly nothing about devolved issues - there wouldn't be. And yes, everything that's said about issues that aren't devolved are, of course, relevant to Wales.
But what about some specific goodies he'd hoped for, like taking forward the recommendations of the Holtham Commission?
This is what the Welsh Liberal Democrat manifesto said they would do:
"Replace the current Barnett formula for allocating funding to the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments with a new needs-based formula, to be agreed by a Finance Commission fo the National and Regions"
What does the coalition document say?
"We recognise the concerns expressed by the Holtham Commission on the system of devolution funding. However, at this time, the priority must be to reduce the deficit and therefore any change to the system must await the stabilisation of the public finances".
When might that be? No time soon, certainly.
The document goes on to say:
"Depending on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum, we will establish a process similar to the Calman Commission for the Welsh Assembly".
It'll be instructive to see how the Welsh Liberal Democrats bridge the divide in language and substance of the two documents.
By the way the coalition document also pledges to "take forward the Sustainable Homes Legislative Competence Order" and to "support" further electrification of the railways. Neither sound like water-tight, here-you-go pledges to me.
The next time a Welsh Lib Dem hints that they're pregnant and broke ...
UPDATE:
This is the response from Welsh Lib Dem leader, Kirsty Williams
"Along with the benefits the people of Wales will see from a Conservative-Liberal Democrat UK government, like lower taxes for workers and a fairer pension settlement for older people, these commitments in this document demonstrate the clear contrast between this active government and the idleness of the past 13 years of the Labour government.
"Making sure that housing powers are devolved to the Assembly, supporting further electrification of the railways and setting up a Commission to look at funding for Wales are all issues the Welsh Liberal Democrats have been fighting for and I am pleased that the UK government has shown commitment to Wales and Welsh devolution by announcing these commitments today".
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~09~RS~)
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When the deficit is brought under control is in the lap of the gods. Even if the optimistic forecasts for economic growth are true it will probbaly not be until 2016 at the earliest. There will also be no change until Wales has had its Calman Commission. In practical terms Barnett is here to stay for this Parliament and the Assembly coalition can forget about the extra £300 million and start to get on with the cuts. They will not even get the extra £180 million Scotland will get when the Treasury releases the fossil fuel levy money. No wonder Carwyn Jones looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights when he met Cameron on Monday. The body language said it all. No extra money, no referendum in the autumn, only pain to come, it will be interesting to see the reaction of Plaid activists to all of this.
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The 'Welsh' Lib Dems are already being made to look like the irrelevant and ignored (by London) shower they always were. The same fate awaits the Assembly Conservatives.
Perhaps the only hope for both is that the coalition unravels and we have another election with a different outcome. But then the Lib Dems would get slaughtered in any re-run for going into alliance with the Tories. Which makes another election unlikely.
So roll on May 5th 2011 when the chickens will really come home to roost!
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Here's a funny thing. According to Bethan, Westminster recognizes the concern of the Holtham Commission that Wales would get another £300 million or so if Barnett were reformed but says that can't be afforded until public finances are stabilised. But the same Commission showed that a reformed system would give Scotland about 15 per cent less on its grant.
See
http://wales.gov.uk/icffw/home/report/needsassessment/;jsessionid=Y6qjL1NVj6QScl2jWl0rCL3y2Q2y7LwpqZ9QWZpSm08LQlyx09dk!-2044494535?lang=en
That saves about £4billion. So it seems the UK can't afford to save £3.7 billion net until its finances are better. Very strange. Can anyone explain why Scottish feelings are so much more important to UK governments than Welsh ones?
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