A late entry
Elfyn Llwyd put it very bluntly a few weeks ago. Plaid Cymru are already closer to power and to government than Nick Clegg is - or ever will be - was the gist of what he had to say.
Then came the first Prime Ministerial Debate and the subsequent opinion polls that suggested he might want to reconsider.
That was a few weeks ago.
Rumours tonight that the front page of tomorrow's Financial Times says Mr Llwyd might yet be proved right. It suggests that when Plaid showed a bit of ankle at the start of the campaign - quite a bit of ankle you might say - and said that in a close run election their small group might hold the balance of power, those "big London parties" were indeed listening.
The FT, it's been suggested, will claim tomorrow that the Conservatives heard the message loud and clear. Whether the paper will say that they have already come knocking at Plaid's door and the SNP's door, or will say that the Tories would rather strike a deal with the two parties in Wales and Scotland than with the Lib Dems isn't clear. It will be soon when the article appears online.
Clearly the significance of 'have already' is considerably greater than 'would rather'. They would, wouldn't they? A vote by vote deal with a few MPs from Wales and Scotland would be considerably less expensive and "inedible" as Rhodri Morgan once put it, than coalition with Nick Clegg. But let's spell it out once again: that would depend on the maths falling very precisely in Plaid's favour and in Mr Cameron's. He'd have to be just a handful of seats short of a majority.
To be clear Plaid dispute point blank that any talks have happened or that the idea of talks has been broached with them. The Conservatives, they say, have not been in touch. Plaid have said in the past - and Ieuan Wyn Jones says so again in an interview with Huw Edwards to be broadcast tomorrow night - that what Plaid want is the best deal for Wales. If the Conservatives are the largest party, then that deal could be struck with them.
While we wait to see the story and find out just how significant it is, one other thought. To whose ears will this story be beautiful music?
Labour's. If I were them I'd be at the front of the queue to buy the FT tomorrow morning.
UPDATE
The FT's article is now online. It's very much in "would rather talk to" than "talking to" territory. As I wrote earlier: well they would, wouldn't they.
Plaid have responded:
"There has been no discussion whatsoever with the Tories and we would not entertain the idea of holding talks with any party until the people have made their decision and we know the outcome of the election. Given the scale of the cuts the Tories are planning for Wales, we would find it extremely difficult to negotiate with a party that wants to further jeopardise jobs and public services".
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~40~RS~)
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The SNP have also said that there have been no such discussions.
Fanciful thinking from within Tory HQ in London I think. London? - that place that isn't even a region of England. It IS England (and GB and UK).
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Labour almost created the Rainbow coalition in Wales by refusing to initialy work with Plaid, assuming that we would always choose them. What they failed to comprehend is that it is all about the people of Wales for Plaid. Fortunately, a guttless Lib Dem Executive gave them a second bite of the cheryy and the rest is history.
The problem now is that Brown is incredibly partisan and despises the SNP and Plaid. Will he let this attitude get in the way of a deal with two parties far more in tune with his core support?
I sincerely hope not.
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I have to say it'll be a pity if the opportunity to get PR is lost, but only a pity for those Down South, as we've already got it in Scotland (and Wales), and we'll soon have independence. It's only a matter of time.
;-)
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I am reminded that the first whiff I had that there might be a minority government in Scotland was when a prominent Tory indicated to me that they would be quite happy to support such an arrangement...
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You're correct to point out the numbers need to be just right before it becomes a possibility. Still, irrelevant nats, eh?
Responsive posting Betsan! Us visitors from Blether With Brian aren't really used to it :)
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Irrelevant indeed. ;-)
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2. ianapharri
"Brown is incredibly partisan and despises the SNP and Plaid."
Also have you noticed how he always calls the LDs the "Liberal Party"? He still can't forgive those Labour rebels who formed the SDP and subsequently the "Dem" bit.
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The numbers are up in the air at the moment. It would be nice to have Eck's predicted 20 SNP MPs but that always looked like, in politicospeak, an Aspiration rather than a reality. Most of the online models however suggest that Plaid may gain between 3 and 4.
I remain pretty sure that it is actual SNP Policy not to enter into formal coalition with the Tories. The Thatcher years are no more forgotten in Scotland than they are in the Valleys.
This is the unspoken issue. We can huff and haw as much as the LibDems do about "who we may support in a balanced parliament". Would the peoples of Scotland and Wales forgive the Nationalist Parties for being seen to prop up a NuLab Administration, Paw Broon at the head or not, issue by issue basis or not ? Despite the fact that PC are already in coalition with Labour in Wales. I get the feeling that the Labour Party in Wales of Rhodri Morgan was a different beastie from London NuLab.
Lets also not forget the Northern Irish parties. The UUP stand under the Tory Banner. The way that the voting goes there, who knows what will happen and Sir Reg may be at the head of a small but significant delegation that will take the Tory Whip. That might just be enough to relegate Our Local Champions to the status of Bit Players. 326 is nominal, the Sinn Fein MPs, there may be 4 or 5 of them from Ulster's 18, will not take their seats.
Hell mend them and let them get on with it. Regardless of who sits in Number 10 come May 7th or subsequent weeks of weaselling and horse trading, the pocket money doled out to us under Barnett will be cut. Cut Hard, Cut Heavy, Cut Fast. And a sudden realisation in 2011 that Their Way is not Our Way and Our Way must be to go.
It may be that every seat will count. It may be that Middle England, come the day, as they did in '92, when before Kinnochio's Victory Rally you would have bet the mortgage on a Labour Victory, when faced with that choice on the ballot paper, will tick the Tory Box.
I'm betting on a second election.
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Irrelevant and nauseous, the thought of Nationalists in bed with any Unionist party at Westminster.
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Why is it irrelevant and nauseous in Westminister but not in Cardiff or Belfast ? Please explain ?
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8. Chiefy1724
"Most of the online models however suggest that Plaid may gain between 3 and 4."
My hunch also was that Plaid would gain in some form come this year's election, but I heard on Radio 4's 'Westinster Hour' on SUnday night that data so far showing Plaid were taking a knock from the LIbDem surge? (a commentator from Cardiff Uni came on to the program and mentioned it, can't remember his name). So I have been keen to find some online data showing polling trends so far which is 'Wales-specific', but no joy as yet. Does anyone have any links to anything online please? Have tried yougov and polling report, but to no avail (not sure if this is my lack of interrogation, or whether the data is a bit hard to root out).
Cheers, Simmo
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Re 11
I'm afraid that Welsh only opinion polls are extremely rare as well as being notoriously untrustworthy.
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Simmo,
Actual polling data from the Celtic Colonies seems a bit thin on the ground and there has been suggestion that in Scotland, may be being actively surpressed.
oldnat and Brownedov are the men for this and I'm sure that they're lurking - else a quick request on BwB or a quirky place where Nats hang out will probably drag them out , but if you have a google at Electoral Calculus (I'm not putting in the URL in case it gets modded), the "national" predictor makes some interesting reading and the Welsh Seat list may prove interesting reading.
Chiefy
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Cheers Chiefy, much appreciated - will have a shufty the now.
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It does appear now that any Labour-LibDem coalition would fall short of an overall majority at Westminster.
As probably the largest party are the Tories smart enough to play the game of minority government as the SNP does in Scotland?
On an issue by issue basis the SNP runs circles around the Unionist parties at Holyrood.
It would seem that the SNP and Plaid have an opportunity as a Nationalist tail to wag the Unionist dog at Westminster.
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Simmo #11
Talking to some LD and Tory canvassers the other day, who have been covering a large area of South West Wales (West of Swansea and up to Aberystwyth) they were saying they are finding the Plaid and Labour support has virtually collapsed.
Lot of reasons given but a common response was along the lines of;
"Plaid is saying Wales has about a 300 million budget shortfall, that's less than the Assembly and devolution is costing us.
The Assembly isn't delivering - so why vote for the two parties that have got us into this mess."
It seems Plaid complaining they were not in the TV PM's debates had not gone down well.
The LD bounce here seems to predate Clegg and is due partly to other factors, mainly they are not Llafur or Plaid.
Think we will see more Yellow and Blue on the map after the 7th.
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Paw Broon getting it right in the neck just now from Jeremy Vine on Radio 2 - Worth a listen on the iPlayer
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16
"Talking to some LD and Tory canvassers the other day, who have been covering a large area of South West Wales (West of Swansea and up to Aberystwyth) they were saying they are finding the Plaid and Labour support has virtually collapsed."
Really?
I've been out canvasing quite a bit in that patch and that's certainly not the impression I'm getting. All parties like to spin and LD/Tories are no exception.
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With regards polling in Wales, Vaughan Roderick, published a poll on Monday, showing that Lib Dem buble,had alresdy started to burst in Wales, with the swing from Plaid to Lib Dem, now virtually wiped out,and that most of the Lib Dem gain is now on the back of Labour.
What the Lib Dem need to realise, is even if the buble holds untill May the 7th, the swing to them will not be uniform, as the pollsters assume.Labour is already at rockbottom in Mid Wales, therfore there is unlikely to be any swing to the Lib Dems. Conversly, the swing in the city seats of South Wales, where Labour was strong in 2005, will be grater than par.
Consequently, what are the odds of the Lib Dems loosing one or two seats in Mid Wales, whilst at the same time gaining one or two seats in South Wales.
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Re: Contribution 16, "Lib Dems Canvassing in West Wales".
Just for information, none have been seen in Carmarthenshire or Pembrokeshire.
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Re 16 & 18
Exactly. West-Wales's canvasser friends may have that impression, but like Old_Miwl, that isn't the impression I've had on the streets and doorsteps. And south of Aberystwyth, within the borders of Ceredigion, believe me, the LD have very, very few canvassers.
I detect some spin in West-Wales' post as well!
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http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/8418/projection_update_the_view_from_the_regions.html
View from the regions on monday. Apart from that Yougov in November.
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Old_Miwl #18
All parties like to spin and LD/Tories are no exception.
Yeh agree with that - my comment was hearsay, I haven't been out canvassing, but I do travel round the country a bit and what I have heard largely supports what they were saying.
Plaid waffling on about speaking for Wales - rubbish! they speak for a diminishing minority - Not Wales.
Just watched Browns disastrous off the record comments after being addressed by a voter with perfectly proper and reasonable questions.
OK Brown and Labour is in big trouble and under pressure, he is a dead man walking.
It wasn't the bigot comment that got me, silly words, but that's pressure.
It was his attitude about who is allowed near him, and conformation of what type of person he really is - that is the real disaster for Labour.
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Hello again in the valleys. Afraid there seems to be some technical problems in the glens, with mods seeming asleep, postings not possible to be given or viewed, and links to this fine blog removed from the page. Can't imagine it is related to the contempt the BBC shows for its Scottish licence payers, but
Anyway now that we've heard the justified confessions of the penitent sinner, how does that leave the balanced parliament as predicted by Ladbrokes, the one where the Celtic Block hold a significant stake, where the Blue Tories have a majority of 77 in England, but none overall. Hopefully any further swing simply adds to the Celtic Block vote as followers leave NuLab in droves.
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Sedwot #22
Thanks for the link - seems about right, but its a very small sample and Wales is a very complex mix with vast differences in culture and heritage within very small geographic areas. A feature the Celtification advocates ignore.
Agree with FoDafydd @ #21 (a very rare event)
the LD have very, very few canvassers.
They are riding on the collapse of labour (sweeping up the votes of those who cannot support the Tories), and of course the TV celebrity of Cable and Clegg.
They are putting little effort on to the ground or into developing and explaining policy.
When they do debate policy in most instances most of the public do not agree or major flaws are exposed.
Their whole position is flaky and not consistent.
The Lib Dems seem to be surprised by their achievement, have few quality candidates and certainly no organisation to follow through.
I have been expecting their popularity to collapse - but it hasn't happened yet.
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Re 24
There does seem to be one hell of a queue at your end!!
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I hear the Scots Nats were thrown out of court, BBC 1 - Gnats 0.
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26. FoDafydd
"Re 24
There does seem to be one hell of a queue at your end!!"
We have about ten tiers of moderation as it helps to keep the unemployment figures low and stifle debate the benefits of a union.
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26. FoDafydd
"There does seem to be one hell of a queue at your end!!"
Queue? It's solitary confinement!
I ask yet again, Are the BBC getting value for the considerable sums expended on external moderation?
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27. Stonemason
"I hear the Scots Nats were thrown out of court, BBC 1 - Gnats/Democracy 0."
edited your post.
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#27 Stonemason ?
Still waiting for the explanation re #9 ? Another Unionista unprepared to justify their statements perhaps ? Did you remember to keep you microphone switched off old boy ?
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22. Sedwot,
good link, thank you, it shows that Conservative support is rock solid in Wales
25. West-Wales,
re-Celticfication, In Monmouthshire, the Druid Paul Flynn, Llafur MP for Newport west, makes much of the fact of his Irish-Welsh Celtic lineage. He wants Welsh independence.
The Llafur AM for Newport east, John Griffiths, started his assembly maiden speech in a bizarrely sectarian manner, his opening words verbatim!!.....'I'm an Irish-Welsh Celt, my mother comes from the west of Ireland, and, my father is a real Welsh Griffiths'!!!
Douse us all a favour, Big Jimmy? Keep your great big busybody beak out!!
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Re 31
Ah, yes, we should have said - Stonemason doesn't do: answering questions, justifying wild comments or engage in actual debate. On the other hand he loves seeing Wales, the Welsh and the Welsh language put down. And it seems for Scotland see Wales.
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#31. Nothing to justify, 1724, when I wrote ...
Irrelevant and nauseous, the thought of Nationalists in bed with any Unionist party at Westminster.
... a group intent on sundering the United Kingdom has no place in government.
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cynicalHighlander - 'BBC 1 - Gnats/Democracy 0' Because when anyone disagrees with Alexander Salmond, it's a loss for 'Democracy'?
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Re 34
"... a group intent on sundering the United Kingdom has no place in government."
Further overwhelming proof that Stonemason does not believe in democracy. It's a case of, if you don't agree with me then you're mad or you're evil or you're a fascist.
Re 32
A note to our Scottish friends, this message by Jac has been posted - exactly the same words, mind you - it must be a hundred times by now. He is the stuck needle, the stuck needle, the stuck needle, the stuck needle...of Welsh blogs.
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33. FoDafydd
Could he not be rendered to hide chip on the old block and be repointed?
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35. Denno
Scoff all you like but fundamentally democracy is at stake by suppressing outside inwards leads into totalitarism, beware what you wish for.
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35. Denno
"Alexander Salmond"
As an aside what is it that you fear when everyone targets their venom towards Alex, I could offer an answer as fear on your part that he is able to disintegrate your arguements in a single breath. Did the might of the Empire fear Ghandi in the same way as keeping things simple and to the point rather than saying Ive got a bigger weapon than you so I know best. The best way of argueing a point is being sure of the facts and not resorting to bullying as they are ignored making the bully look what he is a total numpty.
Nobody likes to lose but today we all lost no matter whose side we are on because once one loses our poor democracy it is irretrievable never to return without violence which non of us want. So enjoy your glee for now but repent at leisure in your state provided attire and work duties.
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It's a strange thing Foo? But, whenever you post, your grammar and syntax, reminds me of an Irish-Welsh Celtic Druid, from Newport west?
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Re 32
A note to our Scottish friends, this message by Jac has been posted - exactly the same words, mind you - it must be a hundred times by now. He is the stuck needle, the stuck needle, the stuck needle, the stuck needle...of Welsh blogs.
Do I detect panic? In the sectarian nutters?
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Sectarian Nutters, Jack_Wilkinson, try looking in a mirror.
I have some sympathy for the broadcasters, realistically either Brown or Cameron are going to be PM. The Lib Dems are stuck in there why? The logic is that potentially they could supply the PM, but then potentially so could the Greens, the BNP and UKIP - highly unlikely but theoretically. So you include those. Then there are the parties of Government in the UK who may be crucial in the event of a hung parliament, there are several of those. I would love to see the justification for the exclusion of others from the debate.
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41. Jack_Wilkinson
"
A note to our Scottish friends, this message by Jac has been posted - exactly the same words, mind you - it must be a hundred times by now. He is the stuck needle, the stuck needle, the stuck needle, the stuck needle...of Welsh blogs.
Do I detect panic? In the sectarian nutters?"
Nah, boredom more like, pal.
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