Trigger un-happy?
A few months before he actually got the job - no, won the job hands down - Carwyn Jones came across as a man who truly wanted to be First Minister but who'd live if he didn't make it. Rather healthy if you ask me.
I'm not suggesting for a moment that his delight in getting the top job is waning but isn't alraedy abundantly clear to us all that having got it, he's also copped a whole load of the sort of pressures that go with standing out there on the deck, plotting a course through the icebergs ahead. Forgive me, I've just spent two days on a leadership course.
Which pressures am I talking about?
The Welsh higher education sector struggling; the Welsh health service, if you accept the judgement of the Nuffield Trust, struggling in comparison with England; the Welsh economy struggling - pick your links, though today's news is a little brighter than it has been for some time.
But for a moment let's concentrate on another sort of pressure, one that isn't on the front pages of the BBC news website today but one that's squeezing Carwyn Jones between a rock and a hard, hard place - the pressure that has prevented him from making a clear, concise statement telling us whether the vote held in the Assembly on the 9th of February will actually trigger the referendum or not.
It didn't sound great, all the waffling and writhing in his very first lobby briefing as FM. It can't have been the plan, so why is he having to do it?
Right: let's run through what we know.
If the trigger vote isn't held on February 9th, there are legal experts who say there is only the slimmest of on-paper chances that the referendum would be held in October. In their view, autumn's out if the process isn't kicked off in February.
Other equally eminent constitutional experts, also listened to by the politicians, say you could start the process of forming the referendum question and preparing the exact, water-tight wording of the Order before you actually squeeze the trigger. It sounds like putting the cart before the horse but with political reassurances that a Secretary of State would then be willing - and able - to move like the clappers, then an autumn referendum could still be on the cards.
Why on earth would you choose to do it that way? I really don't know.
To get a vote through that would trigger the referendum, 40 Assembly Members must vote for it.
26 Labour AMs and 14 Plaid AMs make 40 but they wouldn't all be allowed to vote. Take out the Presiding Officer and his Deputy and one or two who are likely to be absent due to long term illness. One Labour AM has already intimated that if the vote is indeed presented as a trigger vote, they might well find an urgent constituency matter cropping up on the crucial day, keeping them away from the green 'yes' voting button.
So looking at the maths Labour and Plaid need the support of other parties.
Looking at the big picture, the First Minister and his Deputy want the vote to display cross-party unity. A referendum? Yes, look at us! We all want it and most of us by far want to win it.
On to what I'm pretty sure I do know.
The Plaid group want an October referendum. It would hardly be the end of the world for Plaid if it slipped to May 2011 but Ieuan Wyn Jones knows that as far as his party's concerned, October must remain an option. No wriggle room there. There's always the argument that the sort of voters who'll bother casting a vote in a referendum are more likely to be supporters of Plaid so there are those who favour May, the Presiding Officer among them. Win win for Ieuan Wyn Jones?
The Conservatives group, now 13 in number, want an October referendum and are adamant it's just not on to hold it on the same day as the Assembly election - May 6, 2011. If there's even the merest hint that the referendum may be held on the same day, they won't vote for it. Either they get a public, or even private reassurance, that May 2011 is off the agenda or they abstain.
In this game of three dimensional chess, however, the Tories have another factor to consider - and that's if they blocked a referendum - Plaid's shining prize in this Assembly term, it's hard to see that Plaid could possibly entertain them as coalition partners in the next Assembly. Wouldn't that leave them decidedly short of options when it comes to forming an administration?
The Liberal Democrats want an October referendum and would prefer to see the date, if possible, specified when it comes to the vote on February 9th. If the date isn't there, or the private promise of a date, what do they do? Abstain, even though Labour and Plaid need their support? No. The trigger vote would be lost and with it, the chance of having the referendum in October which is what the Lib Dems want. Counter-productive, surely. The Lib Dem group won't hold things up.
Independent AM Trish Law wants an October referendum. She wants strong indications that May 6th 2011 is off the agenda before she votes yes to the trigger though.
So back to the maths. If Carwyn Jones wants the February 9th to be a trigger vote, he has the numbers. Labour, Plaid - even with inevitable abstentions/absenteeism - and Lib Dems should - should - get them over 40. No need to give Nick Bourne assurances on dates. Not ideal but the maths could be made to add up, give or take a bit of arm-twisting.
So Plaid want an October referendum, the Conservatives want an October referendum, the Lib Dems want an October referendum. What's stopping Carwyn Jones from calling February 9th a trigger vote?
Getting the wording absolutely right so that True Wales supporters don't see an opportunity to challenge it legally?
Finding the time to have the necessary discussions with opposition leaders?
Considering all the options properly and thoroughly?
Welsh Labour MPs don't want him to? The Secretary of State really doesn't want him to?
Not at all says a voice from Westminster. All Welsh Labour MPs want is for the matter to be sorted quickly, smoothly so everyone can start concentrating on the General Election. For them, a referendum is a sideshow.
So there you have it.
I know what I know. I know what I think I know. Carwyn Jones has ten days or so to tell us all what we really want to know: is the referendum process triggered on February 9th or not?
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~17~RS~)
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It would be a nice birthday gift for me (Feb 7th) if the referendum process was triggered on February 9th!
Welcome back Betsan!
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http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/06/09/we-are-now-fighting-for-the-very-existence-of-welsh-labour-91466-23820597/
I think Llufur will be reluctant to trigger any vote, where the 'NO' to devolution vote was high, their vote is crashing further and further down.
Folk who voted 'NO' to devolution do not blame any other party for the disaster of devolution, they blame the so called party of the working classes, Llafur the language enforcers!!
You can guarantee, that east Wales will vote 'no' for anything involving more powers for the pestilence on the bay, the east west split will be impossible to ignore.
Some posters have mentioned that Plaid voters will be more determined than Llafur voters , maybe, but they won't be more determined than Conservative voters.
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Betsan.
Welcome back from your 'leadership course'.
Presumably, this course was paid for by the BBC and consequently, as a licence holder, I would like to know if this course was held under the auspices of 'Common Purpose', its agents or successors?
If so, you are certainly in some 'eminent' company.
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I watched Carwyn's interview on Sky News on the weekend and I was very underwhelmed. He was completely evasive, and dodged every question thrown at him.
He was aksed a question about the timing of the next step of devolution and he managed to say nothing.
I hear that the Feb vote will be an enabling vote not a trigger, but in which case the Conservatives will table an ammendment to make it into the trigger vote. In which case we could see Labour abstaining and the coalition collapsing........
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4. I unfortunately did'nt see Carwyn's interview with SKY,but knowing the interviewers I am sure he did'nt get the "soft shoe" shuffle that he gets with BBC CYMRU,who of course are part of our "local" project.In fairness he's been left a wonderful legacy by King Rhodri (Saviour and Father of the NATION),in that Labours historic "enemy",in wales i.e. PC are now well within the tent,can claim all the credit for miniscule things done and then blame the UK government because they dont give us enough money to "finish the "job". The push from PC for "more powers",is only part of the long term plan to take wales into partnership with Cuba/Somalia/Iceland in self governing republic status. Our Carwyn has to "suck up".to this group of dreamers,whilst rest of us look on with amazement/loathing to what Labour has done to english speaking/working class wales. 2. Jack Absolutely correct in that everybody I know is determined to register their opinion on the "more powers" claque as soon as their givev a chance in marking "cross" on ballot paper. Be aware the whole power of state funded/licence fee media in little wales is determined to present unified front in telling us our whole future depends on giving more powers to 60 third class politicians in Cardiff who could'nt "hack it " at top level.
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#5 Igotitallwrongsorry
Yes, you did, apology accepted.
I didn't see CJ's Sky News interview, either.
If he was evasive, I'm not surprised. Labour is a deeply riven party on the question of devolution. Its essentially a centralist party, as we've witnessed over the last 12 years. It has an authoritarian ethos, a hangover from its socialist past, and wishes to control - viz its National Identity Register & ID Cards, and all the claptrap about identity for opening bank accounts etc. Its basically a dishonest party which makes promises it cannot and doesn't intend fulfilling. We've witnessed the lies and deceit surrounding the Iraq war, and the numerous shady dealings in which its MPs and ministers have been caught.
Its let down Wales time and time again. Most of its MPs who represent Welsh constituencies (and several of them, like Hain, are not Welsh) oppose devolution for purely selfish reasons - they stand to lose their seats if Wales gets legislative powers, as the numbers of MPs from Wales will be slashed. We can well do without them as they've achieved nothing for Wales, individually or collectively, but simply sat back on their safe backsides, relying on the loyalty of Welsh working people to keep them there, who themselves remain deprived, whilst the wealth disappears into the City of London and the South East of England.
Carwyn Jones has to be mindful of these Westminster dinosaurs, hence his evasiveness. To what extent they will campaign for a 'No' vote - a betrayal of Wales and its people - remains to be seen. They will have to decide whether or not to let Wales suffer at the hands of a bunch of right wing Euro-sceptic Tories, if Labour loses the GE. They still think they're in with a chance, so the Welsh Labour Party is not sure which way to jump at present. They will act in their own interests, whatever happens, be sure of that.
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Betsan you paint a dismal picture;
Generally the Devolved public services are in trouble, not delivering and certainly bottom of the table for the whole of the UK.
Things are not right and our Devolved Government should be working to identify what is wrong with WAG and the Assembly and put it right.
Instead - The priority for the political parties is a heated struggle over a Referendum for "More Powers".
Given the reality of what Devolution is delivering - surely its hardly likely we will vote to support them.
Today we have the news that Chevron is reviewing whether or not to continue operations in Pembrokeshire.
1,400 jobs and Hundreds of Millions a year into the Welsh Economy!!!
Its worth remembering that after Labour won the 1997 Election, Chevron walked away from the UK.
It shutdown the Gulf Refinery, scrapped it, and sold of the whole of its UK marketing operation in 1998.
At that time it sold its interest in the Texaco site to Texaco.
But when Chevron bought out the Texaco world wide operation, with it came the Pembroke Refinery and Texaco marketing operation in the UK.
So Chevron wer back in the UK and Europe.
There is no doubt that in the UK, and Wales in particular, business rates tax's, bureaucracy and legislation, make it difficult to make a profit.
The new EU and UK emission legislation's will also mean difficulties.
(Incidentally; the whole Anthropogenic Climate Change, low carbon, science is coming apart! - a global scam?)
Well Chevron have walked away before - if they choose they will do so again.
Another employer looking at its Welsh operation - check the list of those that have already gone, anyone asking WHY
But for our political leaders this is all froth - after all the big issue is "More Powers".
For Joe Public the big question is - Why is the Welsh Media not holding our Politicians to account.
Is the answer as simple as - the media have the same agenda as the politicians.
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#7 West-Wales
"..the Devolved public services are in trouble, not delivering and certainly bottom of the table for the whole of the UK."
Where's your evidence for such a sweeping statement?
"..the media have the same agenda as the politicians."
... another conspiracy theory of yours?
You implicitly blame devolution for UK business rates, tax regimes, and bureaucracy for firms like Chevron choosing to leave the UK. The Assembly has no powers over these factors. As you rightly point out, Chevron left the UK in 1998, before there ever was an Assembly.
I would be the first to agree that things are not well in Wales, and the Assembly has to be held to account for its shortcomings, and the state of the public services in Wales which are relatively under-performing. Do remember that in England their government (effectively the Westminster government, has legislative powers across the whole governmental spectrum) whereas the Assembly is pathetically weak, having effectively only the powers of pre-devolution Secretaries of State. Westminster legislates FOR England. How many 'measures' has the Assembly been allowed to pass by London since 2006?
Overall Wales is in a mess, its a relatively poor part of the UK, and has been from time immemorial. That state of affairs is not enshrined in Holy Writ... its a result of Wales being part of the UK and administered by governments which considered Wales a low priority, if any priority at all. Other countries have shown that its possible to be both small and prosperous, when they look after their own interests.
When challenged on this blog, the anti-devolutionists fail to offer any hope for the people of Wales, only more of the same misery which they've suffered down the centuries.
What's your answer? - relect Brown, or bring in Cameron? The first has failed badly, disastrously badly, and the latter's core support is in England, and has no experience at all of government, so how will Wales fare? More money will be spent, and lives lost, fighting an unwinnable conflict in Afghanistan, on renewing a nuclear missile submarine fleet, two gigantic aircraft carriers and an inheritance tax handout to the wealthy. Its also a party which will further alienate our European partners, because of their Euro-sceptic policies.
My answer for a better future for all of us in Wales, is a sovereign Republic, with an elected President, a Senedd/Parliament elected by all the people of Wales - not by minority votes using an undemocratic FPTP electoral system. It will have a government which will put the interests of the people of Wales first.
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7 West-Wales.Spot on.I can only comment on my perceptions and since devolution the BBC CYMRU political department seems to be a re-construction of 1960 Hollywood "movie",with people everywhere and in reality for what purpose. I have just read article by Alan Cochrane the Daily Telegraph's editor in Scotland about the recent report of NHS funding/services in England and devolved regions of UK.There will be accusations of "bias" as he writes/works for conservative leaning paper,however his arguments are very persuasive and apply as much,possible more to wales as they do for scotland. The areas of public policy that are controlled in their entirety by WAG ar mainly education/NHS and there has been unprecedented funding from english taxpayers over last 6/7 years (now ending),however there is no evidence that services to patients/general community arehigher this side of "border",so beloved of BBC CYMRU. The same goes for education,where paradoxically we get higher funding from england,but approximately £500 less is spent per pupil,and our results are lower than england.The fundamental question is "Why are our services in their entirety not much better than those in england,even though we have greater tax income per head of population?"The answer is the size/location/management inefficiencies in current structures,and over centralization of power in politicians hands. I would have thought that any politician down the FORMER BAY OF PLENTY would have had enough to do in next 20 years explaining the need for changes in provision of services,and if necessary carrying them out,even in teeth of opposition from local interest groups. They wont do it because their political futures matter more than "getting it broadly right",and the local welsh media wont comment critically because it's in their interest not to "rock the boat" and be seen as "anti welsh",or not fully supportive of welsh language establishment in its entirety.
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#9
Your analysis is simplistically naive.
The Barnett Formula has been in place for over 30 years - essentially that shares revenue on a pro-rata population basis. Its BECAUSE Wales is relatively poor that it requires more funding per head of the population. Wales has, structurally, far more problems, through unemployment, health, lack of investment in infrastructure, than have the more prosperous (FAR more prosperous) parts of England.
Under the current funding arrangements its increasingly being accepted that the Barnett Formula does not address the problems which Wales has. It has to be replaced by a needs based formula, else there's no way that any administration (whether it be an Assembly or a Secretary of State) can can provide anything like the level of services provided in England.
You blame Wales' poverty and failure on Wales, its people, and its weak administrative Assembly, which does little more than decide how the funds allocated under Barnett are spent.
The underlying weaknesses which beguile Wales are a result of decades of bad UK government, which has dismissed Wales as an irrelevance, unless there have been resources here to exploit. The same thing has happened to Scotland, but there they are increasingly aware of how they have been conned and treated and are not going to accept the status quo any longer. The powers of their Parliament will be ramped up, regardless of whether or not they opt for self-government - that is a given.
Wales will not be a better place for any of us to live in, unless there is a fundamental change in how the country is governed. The pathetically weak devolution settlement cannot really begin to address centuries of decline and underinvestment.
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10. Thank you for the compliment about being "simplistically naive".I would think that in any given country all "regions" that are remote from main centres of population/markets are going to be less prosperous than those that are more favoured.I clearly accept that many,but not all parts of wales are extremely poor and people living in them suffer great health inequalities/wealth/poor schooling and increased funding is necessary to correct economic imbalances. There are,however economic facts of life which need to be addressed,such as will there ever come a time under world "globalization" that good paid work will be available for the mass of ordinary working class people in the private sector in wales. The answer is unfortunately No and then people are going to have to travel/move to where the markets/employment are,rather than thinking work is going to come to them. Do you genuinely believe that wales has been specifically ignored by governments in westminster of whatever hue,rather than they have to work within free market movements,over which they have no control. Look at demise of Liverpool Docks because of change of trade from USA to Europe and consequent growth of Felixstowe container terminal because its in right place. In conclusion my point is that WAG should use the allocated money in the wisest manner possible to give maximum benefits to all welsh people wherever they live.
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Bryn #8
Where's your evidence for such a sweeping statement?
Well there are many many studies and much concern.
BUT not it seems in the Assembly;
Just take the reports Betsan uses to base her comments on, we can also consider the studies of the Institute of Welsh Affairs who are tracking these things.
I understand, but strongly oppose, your desire for an independent Wales.
We have for the last 10 years had devolved responsibility for the most important of our Public services and an Assembly of 60 elected representatives to deliver those services.
The result is quite simply the Assembly is a failure.
Your comment in #10:
The underlying weaknesses which beguile Wales are a result of decades of bad UK government, which has dismissed Wales as an irrelevance,
is unfortunately largely correct.
Since before the War we have had a succession of Labour Governments in the UK each has ended with serious economic and social problems.
Under each of these administrations Wales despite being a hotbed of Socialism and solid (almost) Labour, has gained nothing.
In fact Wales was allowed to decay.
It was only under the Tory Governments, after Thatchers painful restructuring, rebuilding the from the ruins left by the Wilson/Callaghan years, that in the 90's substantial improvements were made here in Wales, the enlightened administrations of Hunt, Hague and especially Redwood, together with the WDA started to make a real difference.
With the rebuilding our transport infrastructure, business friendly legislation and Tax regimes - a can do "Culture" meant significant inward investment and jobs appeared.
Its just a pity that the mid Wales transport network could not be started - but the plans were there.
There is no doubt that the UK is seriously over governed - and the costs of providing much of the unnecessary levels of Government is unjustifiable.
The Assembly is a prime example - an intermediate tier between Westminster and the councils - it is disfunctional, expensive, unnecessary, spending a great deal of its time navel gazing, trying to obtain authority to exceed its remit, and thinking up nuisance legislation to restrict both people and industry, and to make us as different as possible from the rest of the UK just to show WE ARE WELSH.
Name it, and an Assembly member will try to enact legislation to stop it, or enforce it.
They "Never" consider Legislation to make something possible or to remove a constrain.
Every piece of legislation means a vast army to enforce it, and more restrictions.
The Assembly is costing us around £350Million a year (Assemblies figures) money that would pay for a great deal of needed infrastructure.
Given the experience we have of 10 years of this dysfunctional, appalling self serving administration and political system, we have allowed to develop in Wales.
The damage it is doing to our Country and our people, the divisions it is creating between Welshmen, the costs and red tape it is inflicting on us all, including industry (who can, and are voting with their feet).
Surely its time to say. enough is enough
Of course Carwyn is a worried man - he has nowhere to go, no compass, and if he finds a route - Plaids demands will block it.
Yes lets have a referendum ASAP;
not on "more powers" - on Devolution "Yes or No"
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Re 12
West-Wales,
"We have for the last 10 years had devolved responsibility for the most important of our Public services and an Assembly of 60 elected representatives to deliver those services.
The result is quite simply the Assembly is a failure."
And therein lies the inconsistency and flaw in your argument and logic.
Yes, we have had 60 elected members at the National Assembly for 10 years, but like all other democratic countries we are actually governed by a government, in our case the Welsh Assembly Government. So, if your claim that the whole of the last 10 years has been a miserable failure is true, then it is the fault of three different Welsh Assembly Governments.
Because that would be consistent with your arguments regarding Westminster. There, you claim categorically that Labour governments have been responsible for all evils. You conclude, therefore, that Westminster is either benign or blameless. And there are 650 of them there! And they have been around for rather more than 10 years!! You have come to the conclusion that Westminster is not a failure! It's all very clear and consistent...
You were talking also about divisions between Welshmen (and presumably women as well), but they are as nothing compared to the emotions created by Thatcher. I'm afraid that your praise for Redwood places you at the extreme right of the Conservative Party, and I assume therefore that you applauded the cruel, unsophisticated monetarism of the 80's. Is it perhaps your knowledge that no democratically elected Welsh government would ever enact your - in Welsh political terms - extreme political philosophy, that makes you hostile to the very idea of Welsh democracy through devolution?
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And of course the statistics presented take no account of the position prior to the establishment of a semblance of democracy in Wales. Hopefully that will change, but not while the major leavers of economic control lie with Westminster.
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Re 12
Brilliant post as usual from West_Wales. And elsewhere Igotitallwrongsorry, said we look on with amazement/ loathing at what Llafur and chums are inflicting on English speaking Wales!!
But the language enforcers who want to make the English ( who Rhodri calls 'The old enemy) sick with jealousy, seem oblivious to the fact that many of us are English, or of English descent!! How thick can Llafur get?
Yes, I did look on in amazed loathing, as Rhodri crowed about creating clear red water between Wales and our neighbours!! I also felt loathing towards my AM in Newport east, John Griffiths, when he whined about the dreadful standard of Welsh in Monmouthshire schools, and demanded Welsh lessons should be intensified!!!! Tell you what John, lead by example, when election campaigning in Newport, conduct said campaign using the language you're gagging to enforce, if you dare?
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......And meanwhile, back at the Ranch, a day later........
3. At 9:51pm on 20 Jan 2010, gonoph wrote:
Betsan.
Welcome back from your 'leadership course'.
Presumably, this course was paid for by the BBC and consequently, as a licence holder, I would like to know if this course was held under the auspices of 'Common Purpose', its agents or successors?
If so, you are certainly in some 'eminent' company.
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Betsan,
I am really disappointed you have not mentioned the most important fact for not triggering a referendum. That is the likely result a no vote. What would be the consequences of such actions by the people?
Those bookies odds must surely be playing on Carwyn's mind.
8/11 No more powers
Even money - Further powers
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There must be other things on the mind of our leader in the bay, Carwyn Jones is aware that so many people are disappointed by devolution in Wales, disappointed to such an extent that the little people have lost and are continuing to loose faith with the politicians and their empty words, the politicians and unelected political brokers of the Bay.
So many of the electorate are disenchanted as a result of disappointment there is the possibility of such a low turnout at the forthcoming referendum its validity will be challenged in the courts.
This would be a challenge in the name of democracy.
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Re 18
Getting your excuses in early, I see!
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You lost me there Fo ...
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gonoph #3 + #16
To answer your question - a direct one I hadn't spotted sorry - then no, it wasn't.
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