Party Time
In early to hear a lively debate amongst the security staff.
"It's Carwyn isn't it - bound to be".
"Yes, always was. He's the statesman."
"No! It's the lady's. She's got it - sure of it".
I bumped into the Hartinista again later. Still sticking to the lady? He was. I suspect he's got rather a tidy sum on it.
Up in the Bargoed Labour Club last night they thought it would be a close run thing, closer than the snooker match that was going on in the background. But everyone's telling them Carwyn Jones has got it so ... I asked them to stick to 'they' in the interviews about the new leader, rather than 'he'. Yes, I know the maths would suggest 'he's' got it but belts, braces, ifs and buts and all that.
Over in Bridgend Rugby Club the nerves were showing. "I hope you end up using this interview" says one of Carwyn Jones' long-time friends. "If you don't something's not gone according to plan. But you never know do you."
I don't suppose you do, not until the Chair of the Welsh Labour Party has sung.
What happens then?
Whatever the result Carwyn Jones and his team will be raising a glass. Huw Lewis and the gang will be off to a thank you party - all-comers welcome, no matter who you wanted in the job, no matter's who in the job. No news on Mrs Hart's plans.
And then? All eyes turn to next week - and the handover of real power.
On Monday 7th, Rhodri Morgan will chair his last Cabinet as First Minister.
On Tuesday 8th, he will take his last First Minister's Questions session. The Assembly will then vote on on the final budget for 2010-11. The public purse strings will have been tied. Later that afternoon the First Minister will submit his resignation to the Queen. You can, apparently, resign by Email these days as long as there's a hard copy in the post. No romance.
When there's confirmation that the resignation has been accepted - probably on Wednesday - the First Minister, the Counsel General and all government special advisers cease to hold office. Welsh Ministers, including deputy ministers, remain in office until a new Cabinet is appointed.
During plenary on Wednesday the "presumptive" First Minister will be put forward to a vote of the full Assembly. If he or she gets the nod, the Presiding Officer will make a recommendation to the Queen to that effect, again via email.
When the Queen's "approval is communicated" the new First Minister will take the oath, probably on Thursday morning, administered by the most senior judge in Wales. Rhodri Morgan never used to make a big, public deal of this. The new First Minister might want to. By the way the oath is laid out in Section 3 of the Promissory Oaths Act 1868 and can be administered in Welsh.
The First Minister will then supply a list of Welsh Ministers to Her Majesty for approval. Any new Ministers - who have not already sworn an oath as current Ministers - will take the oath, probably by Thursday afternoon.
So you have until Thursday week to come up with your thoughts on a new Cabinet. The same goes for the new Labour leader who's been sitting in the chamber this afternoon ... eyeing the chair bang in the middle of the front row.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~34~RS~)
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Betsan .....I am amazed that you can remain as enthusiastic about this story after so many weeks of reporting, heroic ....
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A pedant writes - Special Advisers don't hold office, they are employed so lose their jobs on the First Minister's resignation. The same happens (if you care) when UK Secretaries of State resign.
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I cant get too excited by the Labour Leader/First Minister as I would be astounded if it is anyone but Carwyn.
But the cabinet reshuffle could be more interesting. Who would become Attorney General? Who might make way for Huw? Will there be a seat somewhere for Leighton Andrews and if so who else will be kicked out....
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It will interesting to see how Plaid relate to their new 'BritNat' leader for whom they have abandoned all principles to get into power. It will also be interesting to see if 'Sold Out' Labour has the stomach to continue this coalition or if we can see a new centre party emerge to meet voter need for real politics. There must be thousands looking for a party of principle to vote for.
While everyone will expect Carwyn Jones to win, I think we should run a sweep stake on what if anything Jane Hutt is going to demolish next.
She has already done for health and education is she going to do for another department and if so which public service is going to suffer?
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Personally I'm sick and tired of the whole saga. Who cares which second or third rate politician leads the pathetic Labour rump in Wales?
We need a Prime Minister, and a sovereign Parliament or Senedd, with a written constitution to protect our rights and liberties here in Wales. It doesn't matter who leads a weak Assembly, which has to ask Westminster for permission to scratch its own backside.
The UK is a mess, and Wales is in a worse mess. It won't be in my time, I fear, but eventually the people of Wales will wake up to the raw deal they've had down the centuries.
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4.But will Labour voters embrace Carwyn Jones or will he follow in Alun
Michaels footsteps? They'll be celebrating in the Cardiff and County club tonight their man is in and the money stays in Cardiff.
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#5 I may not agree with your views on an independent Wales but as far as everything else is concern I have every sympathy for you.
#6 Carwyn has won because he is like strawberry jam, he tastes the same coming up as on the way down and therefore he is not designed to offend anyone. Those who run popularity contests will be delighted but those who want action will be very disappointed.
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7. But can we trust him with the Party? I'll rephrase that Can we trust
him?
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#8 NO
He will do what Plaid and the Archbishop tells him to do! They do not want a BritNat upsetting plans for what was described to me as an ecclesiastical banana republic!
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Snatgwatter, I thought you said your boy was going to win???? In politics, the winner is usually the person who is least offensive - not the person who is most opinionated.
It does not matter if you lose a few of your hardcore support if you can replace them with more from the centreground. It is why Blair could win when Foot and Kinnock could not - Similarly why Ian Duncan Smith and Michael Howard could never win but why David Cameron will.
You should be pleased with Labours choice - he will certainly deliver more seats than Huw ever could.
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#10 penddu, I see the point you are making but Margaret Thatcher seems to be the exception.
Perhaps we will see a return to conviction politics?
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11.Believe me he's won(not the vote that was decided two years ago) but
the battle within on what the Party stands for. I think the Labour Party
will claim back their identity as the only 'socialist' party in Wales and Plaids pretentions will be exposed once and for all.
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Neocromwellian, I don't think people knew what Margaret was until she was in office, then she rapidly became intensely unpopular and was only saved by the Falklands conflict. After that she didn't so much win elections as Labour lost them... they imploded, and gave rise to the SDP. There after with a divided opposition and a crazy electoral system she won a third election. When she finally lost it we had riots on the streets and a near break down of the legal system (Scotland was in meltdown with poll tax (can pay, won't pay) protesters, then her party removed her and gave us a safe pair of hands in John Major. Party politics then carried on as normal. A tired Tory party clung on to power, just, then at the next election mired in sleaze and looking very tired they lost to a re invigorated Labour Party. The wheel turns once again...
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#12 If he now represents what Llafur stands for then I do not think that a socialist party is needed, but something of the centre or soft left that concerned themselves with reform and the delivery of public services.
The problem for me is that David Cameron is advocating many of the reforms that would make public services more accountable to us tax paying serfs. He is also suggesting a partial lifting of Crown Immunity.
This is not something you hear from any party in the WAG and assembly as they are desperate to keep these in place for fear of the public finding out what really happens in our public institutions.
We have been down the road of token socialism before, it costs a fortune for very little noticeable benefit. This coalition is soon going to run out of money, and that will be a testing time, and guess who will be blamed when it all ends in tears?.
With the election by no means decided traditional Labour supporters may think its time to demonstrate leadership and go it alone, at least we will be left with something rather than nothing to rebuild. But then in order to rise like the phoenix you have to burn it down in then first place!
"Britain is on course for a hung parliament after the general election, according to the latest ComRes poll for The Independent.
It puts the Conservatives on 37 per cent (down three points on last month), Labour on 27 per cent (no change), the Liberal Democrats on 20 per cent (up two points) and other parties on 16 per cent (up one point).
The figures would leave the Tories six seats short of an overall majority if repeated at the election. They would have 320 seats, Labour 240, the Liberal Democrats 58 and other parties 14."
http://www.comres.co.uk/page1901302536.aspx
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#13 Lyn_Thomas, I see the point you are making and while I would not wish to return to those sorts of deep divisions in our society, there was a strong left wing of the Labour Party that provided a sense of balance and supported the underdog against the establishment.
The social democrats took over the Labour Party and became the establishment, now there is nobody to turn to for support against social injustice.
The Labour Left like nostalgia ain't what it used to be!
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Re 8 et al
Not a bad loser are we, gnat?
You are certainly no prophet, no more than Stoney! - your man was nowhere near was he? What is quite clear, though, is that it is people like you who will lose the election for your party. A divided party will never win. Still, if you're happy to have the toff Tories lord it over us...
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#16 Said
"Still, if you're happy to have the toff Tories lord it over us..."
From experience you cannot judge peoples sense of social justice from their politics.
In that respect the toff Tories are in every party and not just the tribal group we call the Conservatives.
I am not defending the Tories in the assembly they are just as useless as everyone else.
That in my view is what the assembly and WAG have come up against and instead of reform they have concealed their failure to deliver for the people of Wales.
They want to be toff Tories themselves with a nice little earner or they fear the consequences of accountability to the people who voted them into office.
When push comes to shove they will all back the establishment as the expense of the justice to the individual because that is what they have been conditioned to do by our class based education system.
Its debatable which is worse, the toff Tories or the hypocrites?
Would I give this lot more powers No, would I vote to abolish the assembly Yes.
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Re 17
I'm sure toffs as individuals can be perfectly decent people, I just detest their grip on the establishment, and power as a group - and it clearly remains strong to this day; most especially in the Tory party. Not that that is a surprise.
You said:
"From experience you cannot judge peoples sense of social justice from their politics."
I cannot get my head around that I'm afraid.
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When FiFo
writes .....
..... I just detest their grip on the establishment, and power as a group, .....
..... this would be Wales and the recently constructed elite you are referring to.
I am sure that things you are unable to "get your head around", if listed would fill volums, an example to help you .....
William Walker was both a Conservative MP and philanthropist, an example of how politics does not determine a sense of social justice, though it might not apply to Nationalists, who tend to destroy society.
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As opposed to conservatives that don't believe in society?
Stonemason your sterile name calling is getting tedious. Plaid is a solidly left wing party that believes in social justice to its core. The conservative party did well under Thatcher by abandoning a large section of society and recognising that by polarising the electorate it was perfectly possible to win a majority of the seats on a minority of the vote, as long as you keep on side a section of the public in enough of Britain. They abandoned Wales and Scotland and helped create an underclass through promoting unemployment as a tool of social engineering. Cameron presents a fresh face, but underneath that has anything changed? Is unemployment a price still worth paying?
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You must be getting a little befuddled, what name calling?
Plaid is extremely left wing, solid with the policies of its Marxist foundation, try asking your Leanne Wood AM, she will confirm.
Is unemployment a price still worth paying?
You will have to discuss that particular hot potato with your political partner, it is still rising and you are both in government, this particular domino effect is forecast to continue for another 3 years, unless you have a socialist solution that avoids spending money you don't have.
The Conservatives prefer to generate wealth rather that spend with profligacy.
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Re 20
I wouldn't bother, Lyn. I've recently pointed out to Stonemason that Thatcher governed with minority support, and yet again he chickened out of a real debate - making some extremely silly point about no one being disenfranchised. Stonemason, and the others, either can't or won't debate.
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And now I've just seen 21, and:
"Plaid is extremely left wing, solid with the policies of its Marxist foundation"
to prove my point.
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FiFo, the day you demonstrate the wish to debate I am sure there will be takers ........
Post any election, the winning party, whichever, does not create legislation to deliberately disenfranchise any portion of the public, except in Wales where Morgan and pals created an apartheid. This is not silly, it is disgusting.
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Re 24
No, it is just silly. As I said, rational, reasonable debate is never an option, and the flight of fantasy that is 24 just proves it once again. It is a comment that is an insult to millions of black South Africans who suffered from the evils of apartheid - with Thatcher's blessing of course.
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