Oscar on the move
What's going on?
The Conservative briefing is usually a lonely affair for Nick Bourne. One colleague by his side, maybe two if he's lucky. Today we walked in to find the whole group seated in the front row: the full eleven were out to support the boss.
And Cheryl Gillan.
Why? Because in walked Plaid AM Mohammed Asghar to announce the group of twelve had become a group of thirteen. He is the first AM to have crossed the floor- the first full defection. He's left Plaid to take the Conservative whip.
And the Oscar goes to ..?
There were whoops and cheers from the eleven in the front row to welcome the twelfth. The thirteenth, Mr Bourne, was delighted at this proof that "we are the party with momentum behind us".
What had alienated Mr Asghar from Plaid? "Quite a lot" he said, before going on to mention the Royal family in whom he believes and the United Kingdom in which he believes fervently. Plaid's policy of independence? How had he squared that with a fervent belief in an United Kingdom?
We should check his speeches, he said. He'd only mentioned independence once. How does that work, we asked? You were elected as an Assembly Member for a party whose ultimate aim for Wales you cannot stomach? His voice, he said, "was a little parrot in a jungle".
Let's ask the question the other way round? Why did Plaid want this particular parrot on its list? Perhaps we'll get to ask that later.
Nick Bourne had felt for some time now, he said, that Mohammed Asghar would be very much at home with the Conservatives. Mr Asghar himself confirmed this morning that he's been a member of the party in the past but that when he joined the Tories twenty years ago, "nothing happened". Since then he's been a member of, I think his words were, a few other parties. Don't dwell on the past was the message, look ahead.
Perhaps, then, we should be less surprised than we are that Mr Bourne approached Mr Asghar - at least we understand it was that way round - on a poaching exercise that not only netted Mr Asghar but also his daughter Natasha, who's also stood for Plaid in the past. In fact, from the interviews flowing afterwards, it very much sounded as though Natasha was netted first. And as a list member, of course, her Dad gets to hold on to his seat. He doesn't have to stand down. A constituency AM - personal vote and all that - might feel more of a moral imperative to stand down though the rules do say that they too can hold on to their seat. (Check comments on this. They're quite right - the rules don't say a constituency member has to stand down).
How had Ieuan Wyn Jones responded? He hadn't yet, said Mr Bourne. They were yet to tell him. The first eleven, the twelfth and the boss enjoyed that one.
What happens next?
Mr Bourne confirmed that Mr Asghar will be second on the list come the Assembly election. Is William Graham, who's first on the list, about to retire? Or does Mr Asghar accept second place on the Conservative list in South Wales East is better than the prospect, whispered in my ear by a local Plaid member some weeks ago, of the Plaid list seat being made available to Adam Price as a route into the Assembly?
The Plaid leader is in a group meeting. I'll fill you in on what the 'jungle' drums have to say later.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~32~RS~)
Comments
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Can an AM elected on the regional list cross the floor? The seat is awarded to the party not the individual. If the AM dies or resigns then the next person on the list is elected. This presumably means that you cannot as a regional AM change party. We could be entering an interesting legal precedent.
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!!! Didnt see that one coming - But I suspect that he will be back with Plaid again in a few years, but as part of a new rainbow claolition.
Good luck Oscar.
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Two points. Firstly, I believe this issue arose at the time Trish Law was elected in the by-election - i.e. whether her election to the Assembly would impact on the d'hondt calculation of which party was entitled to what on the regional list, the resolution being that at the date of the election, party vote shares were calculated and once allocated to the individuals, those individuals gained the same status as those elected FPTP as 'independent' members, able to fly which ever flag they wished from there on in.
Secondly, Betsan, come along there's only 60 of them to cover - it's 12 to 13.
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Betsan, are your sums right - I thought that Conservatives had 12 AMs before, so Oscar is lucky 13 ??
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Don't understand your point Betsan about Oscar keeping his seat because he is on the list, whereas a constituency AM would have to give it up. Surely the wrong way round. Plaid got its list seat and Oscar got it because he was on the Plaid list. If he is now a Tory, he is not eligible to retain it and the next Plaid person on the list should have it. A constituency AM can cross the floor and not face an election until the next Assembly General Election is due.
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3. Three wheels on Plaids wagon and they're just rolling along. But for
how long? Mr. Asghar has finally realised that the Plaids 'welcome in the hillside' is nothing more than a pretentious facade aimed at trying
to secure the asian vote.Good for him.
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Surely the voters of his region should have a say. They voted for Plaid Cymru, not for him. It is only due to his position on the party list that he was elected. Glyn is correct when he says that a regional AM who resigns or dies is replaced by the next person on the list. Therefore Mr Asghar, by changing parties, has effectively resigned and should be replaced by the next person on the Plaid Cymru list.
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More haste less speed.
Yes - a group of thirteen. I was talking about the eleven seated en masse in the front row growing to twelve but granted, it wasn't very clear. It is now I hope.
On giving up seats: no, you don't have to give it up if you're on the list. Plaid argue he ought to for the reasons you give here but the rules say you don't have to. The argument goes quite often that constituency members are under more pressure to give up their seat because of the personal vote they might have got but you're right - and I've corrected the entry - the rules say they too can hold on to their seat, even if they decide to swap parties.
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It took him a while to realise that Plaid Cymru is in favour of independance for Wales ultimately...
I'm afraid he seems like a political oportunist, willing to jump on whichever bandwagon is most likely to benefit him. Good riddance, I think. He won't be back in the assembly, will he?
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Thanks for the clarification Betsan and the correction re. constituency members. But if a list member does not have to stand down if he or she changes party, it makes a mockery of the whole system. The List system is specifically designed to ensure that the elected body's membership reflects the proportion of total votes cast for each of the parties and none. If list members can swap parties like this the proportionality mechanism will be destroyed and the whole system discredited.
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If, as it seems he doesn't have to give up his seat because he's since decided that he wants to be a Tory this shows a huge gap in the rules of electing a member on this list and needs to be changed for the next elections. Out of interest, if in distant the future Oscar decided to stand down for other reasons would that seat go to the next person on the Tory list after all or on the Plaid Cymru one?
Seems like a monumental mess to me. There is no point in having the formula based on how many constituency AMs are elected within a region and how many regional votes FOR THE PARTY if this situation can happen - from Plaid to another party of vice-versa.
Strange goings on
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Also, recall a simmilar situation happening in Scotland - Tommy Sheridan quit the Scottish Socialist Party and set up his own party, Solidarity despite being elected as a List MSP for the SSP. The argument for his supporters why he should keep his seat at the time was that much of the SSP list vote was a personal vote for him. Don't see how Oscar can make a simmilar claim really....
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Mohammed Asghar, when he said "I'm a Unionist not a separatist" said publicly what a lot of Plaid supporters think, it is time to become a member of a better human race where working together makes a better bed fellow than with sunderers, lots of very sour grapes above .....
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Not sour grapes Stonemason, shock at such a glaringly obvious undemocratic mistkae within the rules of the Assembly more likely. I have no problem with a member of any party feeling that they can no longer remain a member for whatever reason, that is fair enough, I doubt any party would want an elected member who doesn't agree with the core of its policies anyway. However, Mohammad Asghar has decided he doesn't support the party yet is happy to keep receiving the money and status that being a member of Plaid Cymru at the right time awarded him.
On top of that he's not even let his staff know of his decision before going to the Conservative Party Press Conference.
Thes aren't the actions of a man of principle from what I can see.
If say David Melding, Brynle Williams, Mark Isherwood etc decided to join one of the other parties of the Assembly I just wonder what your reactions and those of the Tory AMs would be. Hmmm......
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9. Plaid have made 'jumping on bandwagons' a science it is therefore
a bit rich to attack Mr. Ashgar on that.In his case the conditioning obviously didn't work and he retains a mind of his own so seeing him reject Plaid is a warning to all political parties that people are prepared to cross the floor to retain the union.
Are you listening Carwyn?
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I would call them traitors dinbych123, but love and war etc..
But when you write ...
...obvious undemocratic mistake within the rules of the Assembly more likely.
... you highlight yet another reason why the WAG is not ready to move on, our government is still walking through a minefield that needs clearing, where have our representatives been for ten years. Mohammed Asghar should be thanked, and when the GOWA is modified in accordance with the will of the people, a referendum possibly, the modification to establish "right" should be called the Mohammed Asghar amendment.
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From being over-eager to appear anything but 'narrow nationalists' Plaid Cymru is left looking stupid because they picked a political chancer who's been in more parties than Disco Stu (Simpsons).
If 'Oscar' feels more at home in a party led by the Bullingdon clique then it only shows how politically naive or confused the man is.
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If nothing else Mr.Asghar brings out the real Plaidi, nasty spiteful little NATS as they are.They reap what they sow. Your better off with
the Unionists Mr.Asghar.
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To #17 jacothenorth
Nick Bourne was in the Bullingdon club?! Pics?
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David Davies MP has the rights of it when he writes in .... his blog ...
In other words, Mr Ashgar considers Plaid to be a subversive, separatist party that wants to break up our country and render Wales an insignificant province of a European superstate.
... and so say all of us.
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17 Jac... I'd rather trust the Bullingdon "set",whose fathers/grandfathers probably served in second world war along with the rank and file of british men and women,rather than PC's "hero" who scuttled into the easy arms of "opting out",whilst the Germans/Japs/Italians had to be destroyed to create our freedoms today.You can "beat" the Bullingdon set by logic,however the "dreamers" of PC are selling snake-oil to the masses in pretending that wales could survive as economic entity without general support of UK. How could afford the costs of BBC Wales/Cyrmu/S4C out of the licence fees paid in wales??.
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Following on from #20 where .....
Mr Ashgar considers Plaid to be a subversive, separatist party that wants to break up our country and render Wales an insignificant province of a European superstate.
... what on earth are the Labour Party doing aligning themselves with Plaid, subversive and separatist, it makes the coalition sound subversive and separatist. Are the membership of Plaid to be considered S[ubversive] and S[eparatist] I wonder.
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